[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 122311
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122310 
TXZ000-130045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1230
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0610 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN INTO SWRN TX

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 450...

VALID 122310Z - 130045Z

POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES EXISTS WITH
STRONGEST STORMS. CONTINUE WW.

AS OF 2254Z...MIDLAND VOLUMETRIC RADAR DATA INDICATED A LARGE
CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...INCLUDING EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS...OVER PORTIONS OF PECOS/TERRELL AND BREWSTER COUNTIES
MOVING SEWD. ADDITIONAL STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG DRYLINE OVER THE
PAST HOUR FROM DAWSON COUNTY SWWD INTO ECTOR AND CRANE COUNTIES.
STRONG HEATING ALONG AND E OF DRYLINE COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
60S TO AROUND 70F HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY
AHEAD OF ONGOING STORMS EARLY THIS EVENING WITH MLCAPES OF 2000-3000
J/KG. MOREOVER...A BELT OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL WINDS /35-45KTS AT
500MB/ CONTINUES TO SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE REGION...TO THE S OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF ERN NM INTO WRN TX.

GIVEN THE RELATIVELY LARGE TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS E OF DRYLINE
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE COLD POOL PRODUCTION FROM  RAPIDLY
DEVELOPING STORMS...EXPECT LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS TO BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. THE EXCEPTION IS
OVER PORTIONS OF ERN BREWSTER AND TERRELL COUNTIES WHERE SUPERCELLS
ARE MOVING THROUGH AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STRONGER
INSTABILITY AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR.

..MEAD.. 06/12/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF...

32930124 32919866 29730082 29750333 

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