[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 122238
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122237 
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-130000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1228
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0537 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL/SERN KS SWD ACROSS WRN OK AND NWRN TX

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 448...

VALID 122237Z - 130000Z

POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES EXISTS WITH
DEVELOPING STORMS. CONTINUE WW.

AS OF 2220Z...REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC INDICATED STORMS DEVELOPING OVER
SUMNER/SEDGWICK COUNTIES IN S-CNTRL KS...WOODS/WOODWARD COUNTIES IN
NWRN OK AND COLLINGSWORTH/KENT COUNTIES IN THE TX PNHDL/WRN TX. 22Z
MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS THESE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ON DRYLINE WITHIN
ZONE OF STRONG HEATING AND SUSTAINED CONVERGENCE. A SECONDARY
DRYLINE FEATURE OR CONFLUENCE LINE / DELINEATING RICH...
BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE -I.E. LOWER TO MID 70S DEWPOINTS- FROM A
DEEPER-MIXED AIRMASS / ALSO EXTENDED FROM JUST W OF ICT SWD TO NEAR
END TO SE OF LTS.

LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS WRN TX SHOULD ENCOURAGE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG DRYLINE
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SUFFICIENTLY STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF
30-35KT ORIENTED NORMAL TO DRYLINE SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL EXIST WITH THOSE STORMS THAT
CAN MOVE EWD ACROSS ERN DRYLINE/CONFLUENCE LINE INTO ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY COMPARATIVELY HIGHER INSTABILITY AND STRONGER
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR.

..MEAD.. 06/12/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...FWD...OUN...DDC...SJT...LUB...AMA...

38259878 38249565 32989819 32970115