[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 122030
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122030 
VAZ000-WVZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-OHZ000-122200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1223
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0330 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN/SRN KY..SRN WV...AND SWRN VA

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 445...

VALID 122030Z - 122200Z

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH CONTINUES UNTIL 21Z ACROSS SRN/ERN
SECTIONS OF KY.

WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL KY EWD INTO SRN
WV/SWRN VA CONTINUE TO REDUCE INSTABILITY RAPIDLY OVER THE AREA. AN
ISOLATED THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS OR HAIL MAY EXIST BEYOND
21Z...HOWEVER...OVERALL INTENSITY OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO
DECREASE.

PRESENCE OF BACKDOOR COLD FRONT BANKED ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIAN MTNS AND OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES SUGGEST THAT
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WILL BE RELATIVELY HIGH INTO THIS EVENING
ACROSS FAR ERN KY...SRN WV...AND SWRN VA. EXISTING SLOW-MOVING
CONVECTION OVER THE REGION AND ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST WILL MAINTAIN HVY RAIN THREAT FOR SEVERAL HOURS.
HOURLY RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 2"/HR ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN STRONG
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INTO THE REGION AND PW VALUES AROUND 1.75 IN.
WITH DIMINISHING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL... ADDITIONAL WW WILL
LIKELY NOT BE ISSUED.

..BANACOS.. 06/12/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...

36558110 37188104 38148119 38418211 38558399 37328534
36848662 36708638 36658342 36578247 

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