[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 112156
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112155 
IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-112330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1194
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0455 PM CDT FRI JUN 11 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CNTRL IA SWWD INTO NWRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 112155Z - 112330Z

TSTM POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE INCREASING AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL
BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW.

AS OF 2145Z...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED DEEPENING CUMULUS
FIELD ALONG PRESSURE TROUGH THAT EXTENDED FROM A SURFACE LOW SE OF
SPW SWD TO ROUGHLY 35E OF OMA TO NEAR FNB. TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S
COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S AND RATHER STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES OF 7-8 C/KM ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG E OF
TROUGH WITH LITTLE OR NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. THOUGH STRONGEST
LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH VORTICITY MAX OVER
ERN SD/N-CNTRL AND NERN NEB IS FORECAST TO LIFT N OF THE
AREA...LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE ALONG TROUGH MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT TO
INITIATE DEEP CONVECTION. 

IF STORMS CAN BECOME ESTABLISHED...CURRENT SLATER IA PROFILER
INDICATES SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. THOUGH LARGE
HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...ISOLATED
TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE FAVORABLY LOW LFC/LCL
HEIGHTS. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AND A WW MAY BE
REQUIRED.

..MEAD.. 06/11/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...

42249499 42289249 39479385 39599615 

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