[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 111553
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111552 
VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-111745-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1188
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1052 AM CDT FRI JUN 11 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN IND/SRN OH/NRN KY/WV AND WRN VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 111552Z - 111745Z

A WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL EXIST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS A LINE OF
STORMS MOVES ESEWD ACROSS ERN IND...SRN OH AND WV. A WW WILL LIKELY
BE REQUIRED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THIS REGION.

SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING SEWD INTO SRN
OH WHERE A LINE CONVECTION IS ONGOING JUST SOUTH OF THE FRONT. SFC
TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THE FRONT HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER 80S F AND
MUCAPE VALUES HAVE INCREASED INTO THE 2000 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE.
INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON HELPING
UPDRAFTS TO INTENSIFY. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 700 MB JET OF 40
KT CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS SCNTRL IND PUNCHING EWD INTO SRN OH.
THIS FEATURE IS CREATING MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 35 KT
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS. UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES
WILL PROMOTE AN INCREASING WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL AS THE LINE
ORGANIZES AND MOVES ACROSS SRN OH INTO NRN WV THIS AFTERNOON.
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR TO THE SOUTH ACROSS NRN KY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN A WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL ACROSS
SRN WV AND WRN VA AS WELL.

..BROYLES.. 06/11/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...

38417876 37957881 37347908 36847964 37228180 37898388
38598566 39098643 39828644 40068603 39918498 39648304
39288064 38917904 

WWWW