[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 110508
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110507 
OHZ000-INZ000-MIZ000-ILZ000-110630-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1183
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1207 AM CDT FRI JUN 11 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CNTRL IN AND SW LOWER MI

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 432...

VALID 110507Z - 110630Z

THREAT FOR AN ISOLD TORNADO AND/OR WIND DAMAGE REMAINS ACROSS WW 432
/NAMELY ACROSS NRN AND CNTRL IN PORTIONS/ FOR NEXT FEW
HOURS...CONTINUE WW.

IND 88D VAD WIND PROFILE IN CONJUNCTION WITH SFC DATA/RUC
DIAGNOSTICS SUGGESTS LARGE/LOOPED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS REMAIN ACROSS
NRN/CNTRL IN...WITH 0-1 KM SRH ON THE ORDER OF 200 M2/S2.
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES REMAIN CHARACTERIZED BY SUBTROPICAL AIRMASS
WITH VERY HIGH PW VALUES AND SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER
70S. GIVEN FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND SUFFICIENT
CONCENTRATION OF LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY -- 0-3 KM CAPE OF 75-125 J/KG
-- CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF AN ISOLD TORNADO AND/OR WIND
DAMAGE EVENT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. NEVERTHELESS NOCTURNAL CYCLE
AND TENDENCY FOR TSTMS TO CLUSTER SUGGESTS PROGRESSIVELY DIMINISHING
THREAT INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

..GUYER.. 06/11/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...

42058678 42048552 39878444 39888728 40488759 41138694 

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