[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 091842
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091842 
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-092015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1155
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0142 PM CDT WED JUN 09 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 091842Z - 092015Z

...CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING CLOSELY MONITORED ACROSS THE FRONT
RANGE AND A WATCH MAY BE ISSUED BY AROUND 20Z...

A BOUNDARY IS APPARENT IN THE DENVER RADAR REFLECTIVITY
IMAGERY...WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW OBSERVED AT COLORADO
SPRINGS...EASTERLY FLOW AT DENVER AND NORTHEAST FLOW AT BOULDER
IMPLYING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES ARE NOT VERY
STRONG YET...WITH ONLY ABOUT 20-25 KT OF MID LEVEL FLOW.
HOWEVER...DIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE VERY FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING
STORMS AND SFC DEWPOINTS ARE INCREASING INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S. 

A STORM RECENTLY TRIED TO FORM OVER DOUGLAS COUNTY CO...AND THIS
APPEARS TO BE SURFACE BASED. ALTHOUGH THIS STORM IS WEAKENING...THE
FACT THAT IT FORMED SUGGESTS THAT OTHER SFC BASED DEVELOPMENT MAY BE
IMMINENT. THE MODIFIED SOUNDING AT DENVER GIVEN LATEST OBS IS
PARTIALLY CAPPED...BUT A FEW MORE DEGREES OF WARMING INTO THE LOW
80S SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME THE INHIBITION. WITH SFC
MOISTURE INCREASING AND FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES...ANY SFC BASED
STORM WHICH FORMS WILL LIKELY ROTATE AND THUS BE A TORNADO/LARGE
HAIL THREAT.

..TAYLOR.. 06/09/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

37070248 37150359 38580463 40070494 40840472 40980383
40980214 40530196 37860198 37110207 

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