[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 081925
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081924 
NEZ000-082130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1140
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0224 PM CDT TUE JUN 08 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN AND CNTRL NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 081924Z - 082130Z

A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED SHORTLY FOR PORTIONS OF SWRN AND CNTRL NEB.
THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR STORM INITIATION WITHIN
1-2 HOURS.

INTENSE SURFACE HEATING COUPLED WITH VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER HAS
RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF QUASISTATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS SWRN NEB.
ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO OF HEATING COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE MESOSCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG THE FRONT AND NEAR SURFACE LOW SHOULD
ELIMINATE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION SUFFICIENTLY FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT. 
EXPANDING WARM SECTOR CU FIELD FURTHER SUGGESTS THIS PROCESS IS
UNDERWAY. MOST SUPPORTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS WAS
CURRENTLY SITUATED ALONG THE NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ANY
STORMS THIS AREA WILL BE LIKELY TO PRODUCE VERY LARGE HAIL. IF CELLS
CAN FORM ON THE BOUNDARY...OR BUILD INTO THE WARM SECTOR...MAGNITUDE
OF CAPE AND STRENGTH OF LOW LEVEL SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR NOW
EVIDENT ON AREA WIND PROFILER DATA WOULD SUPPORT THE THREAT OF
TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO VERY LARGE HAIL.

..CARBIN.. 06/08/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD...

40559953 40250184 40970201 41650208 42649881 42199834
41139765 

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