[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 070417
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070417 
OKZ000-TXZ000-070545-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1127
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1117 PM CDT SUN JUN 06 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN TX AND EXTREME SRN OK

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL 

VALID 070417Z - 070545Z

RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NRN TX THROUGH 06Z/07Z...WITH AREA EXPANDING SLOWLY SEWD
DURING THIS PERIOD. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE SPREADING INTO THE AREA
FROM NEAR SEP TO NEAR DAL. 

WARM CORE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION WAS EVIDENT IN RADAR IMAGERY ABOUT
40 NNW OF DAL AND WAS NEARLY STATIONARY. EVENING SOUNDING AT DFW WAS
VERY MOIST WITH PW VALUES NEAR 1.75 INCHES. LAPSE RATES NEAR 7C/KM
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S WERE RESULTING IN PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY/MLCAPES NEAR 2500 J/KG/CONTINUE TO FEED TO STORMS. 

CONVECTIVE BAND FEEDING INTO THIS LOW EXTENDED FROM EAST OF
GAINESVILLE/DENTON SWWD INTO TARRANT AND PARKER COUNTIES.  SOME MID
LEVEL DRYING APPEARS TO HAVE WORKED ONTO THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE LOW
AND HAD PUSHED CONVECTIVE BAND SEWD AT 10 KT. ALSO... STRENGTHENING
LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN A SLOW SEWD PROPAGATION.  THIS WILL
SPREAD HEAVIEST RAINS SEWD FROM NEAR SEP TO DAL AND THEN NEWD TO SE
OF DUA. SEVERAL HOURS OF PCPN HAS RESULTED IN A COLD POOL TO
DEVELOP...SO ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE/HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE AND WITHIN THE STRONGER CORES.

HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO LIKELY UNDER THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION NEAR THE
RED RIVER AS CONVERGENCE CONTINUES TO GENERATE NEW STORMS/UPDRAFTS.

..IMY.. 06/07/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...

33979649 33509612 32589614 32289704 32209798 32549813
32759732 33029660 33289634 33509707 33629772 33969760
34119696 

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