[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 062240
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 062239 
OKZ000-TXZ000-070115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1122
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0539 PM CDT SUN JUN 06 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CENTRAL TX...SRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL 

VALID 062239Z - 070115Z

CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER NRN TX WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY NWD OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS INTO SCENTRAL/SERN OK. ADDITIONAL STORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE DFW METRO AREA TOWARDS ACT.
ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS OVER THIS AREA. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SVR THREAT WILL
BE POSSIBLE ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NEAR MAF EWD TO
NEAR SJT.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL AID IN NWD MOVEMENT OF THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY/NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON THE NORTH SIDE OF CONVECTIVE
CLUSTER INTO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER SCENTRAL/SERN OK
WHERE MLCAPES FROM 2000-2500 J/KG EXIST. MEANWHILE 35-40 KT LOW
LEVEL JET DEVELOPING OVER NRN/CENTRAL TX WILL AID IN THE POTENTIAL
FOR REDEVELOPMENT/BACKBUILDING SOUTH OF THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE
CLUSTER BACK INTO NCENTRAL TX. THIS WILL AID TRAINING OF ECHOES AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL RATES OVER NCENTRAL TX/SCENTRAL OK
GIVEN THE MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE.

WARM MID LEVELS AND MULTICELLULAR NATURE OF CONVECTION GIVEN THE
WEAK SHEAR OVER NRN TX/SRN OK AND BETWEEN MAF AND SJT WOULD LIMIT A
PROLONGED/WELL ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT AND THUS A WW IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

..CROSBIE.. 06/06/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...MAF...

31180134 31970234 32400213 32480125 32250057 32000030
32409960 33349899 34399857 34719789 34469657 34339571
33669579 32219663 31689724 31059928 

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