From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 1 02:17:53 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 31 May 2004 21:17:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406010217.i512Hqj06747@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 010126 SWOMCD SPC MCD 010125 OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-010330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1030 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0825 PM CDT MON MAY 31 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...E-CENTRAL MO...CENTRAL IL...N-CENTRAL/CENTRAL IND...FAR WRN OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 010125Z - 010330Z THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS WILL PERSIST DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION REGION. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN GENERALLY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS BY 03Z. AT 0115Z...SEVERAL CONVECTIVE LINE SEGMENTS EXTEND FROM NERN IND SWWD INTO THE STL METRO AREA. LINE MOTIONS ARE MODERATELY FAST...ESEWD AT 30-35 KT. THE 00Z ILX SOUNDING SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT IS CHARACTERIZED VERY STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG DEEP LAYER WLY FLOW. ADDITIONALLY...SFC-850MB LAYER IS RELATIVELY DRY ENHANCING EVAPORATIVE COOLING POTENTIAL IN DOWNDRAFTS. MUCAPE VALUES ARE MARGINAL / 500-1000 J/KG / AND DIURNAL COOLING SHOULD REDUCE POTENTIAL FOR DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER AS STORMS WEAKEN AND BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES. THUS...THREAT OF WIND DAMAGING IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DIMINISH AFTER 03Z. ..BANACOS.. 06/01/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILN...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...SGF... 39169183 39099079 39558974 40128827 40438753 41108579 41258495 40718449 40078493 38788802 38118968 38169188  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 1 04:32:18 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 31 May 2004 23:32:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406010432.i514WFj02494@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 010431 SWOMCD SPC MCD 010431 TXZ000-010530- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1031 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1131 PM CDT MON MAY 31 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN / SERN TX... CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 362... VALID 010431Z - 010530Z SEVERE STORMS / SUPERCELLS CONTINUE ACROSS WW...AND POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STORMS TO BEGIN A MORE SWD PROPAGATION. WW CONTINUES...WITH NEWLY-ISSUED WW 363 SOUTH OF WW 362 COVERING THE THREAT FOR SWD PROPAGATION OF SEVERE THREAT. SEVERAL SEVERE / SUPERCELL STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS WW...WITH PERSISTENT STORM REDEVELOPMENT INDICATED IN WRN PORTIONS OF WW OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS IN WARM ADVECTION ZONE NEAR / JUST N OF SURFACE BOUNDARY. WITH VERY MOIST /UPPER 70S DEWPOINTS/ LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS AND CORRESPONDING AXIS OF WEAKLY-CAPPED 3000-4000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE EXTENDING SEWD TO GALVESTON BAY...THE POTENTIAL APPEARS TO EXIST FOR STORMS TO CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALTHOUGH STORMS HAVE MOVED GENERALLY SEWD THIS EVENING...INCREASING SLY / SSWLY LOW-LEVEL JET MAY ALLOW A SLIGHTLY MORE SSEWD PROPAGATION OF STORMS WITH TIME -- PARTICULARLY GIVEN PRESENCE OF INSTABILITY AXIS. EITHER WAY...EXPECT THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL AS WELL AS AN ISOLATED TORNADO TO PERSIST ACROSS THIS WW AND INTO NEWLY-ISSUED WW 363 THROUGH AT LEAST 01/07Z. ..GOSS.. 06/01/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX... 32849748 31929463 29649463 29029517 28779581 29419707 30909752 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 1 08:44:38 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 01 Jun 2004 03:44:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406010844.i518iZj21016@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 010841 SWOMCD SPC MCD 010841 LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-011015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1032 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0341 AM CDT TUE JUN 01 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX/WRN LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 364... VALID 010841Z - 011015Z WEAK FRONTAL WAVE HAS FORMED NEAR RUSK COUNTY IN NERN TX WITH WARM FRONT EXTENDING ESEWD ACROSS LA AND INTO SRN MS. STRONG CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW EXTENDS SWWD FROM THE LOW WITH A MESOHIGH INVOF ROBERTSON COUNTY TX. STRONG AND OCCASIONALLY SEVERE STORMS PERSIST PRIMARILY NEAR THE LOW AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT...FROM NERN TX INTO NRN LA. NEW CELLS ARE ALSO DEVELOPING ACROSS MS. ACTIVITY ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS BEEN WEAKENING AND IR SATELLITE ALSO INDICATES WARMING CLOUD TOPS OVER THIS CONVECTION. ISENTROPIC LIFT ACTING ON VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS...COUPLED WITH MODEST WLY MID LEVEL FLOW...SHOULD SUSTAIN SEVERE STORM/HAIL POTENTIAL ACROSS NRN AND ERN PARTS OF SEVERE TSTM WATCH 364 FOR AWHILE LONGER. ..CARBIN.. 06/01/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX... 30009457 30029872 33029688 33009255  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 1 11:44:02 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 01 Jun 2004 06:44:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406011143.i51Bhxj04874@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 011143 SWOMCD SPC MCD 011142 GAZ000-ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-011345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1033 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0642 AM CDT TUE JUN 01 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...LWR MS VLY/NRN GULF COAST CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 011142Z - 011345Z BANDS OF STRONG TSTMS CONTINUE THIS MORNING FROM NRN LA...AND INLAND FROM THE NRN GULF COAST. THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY REMAINS BELOW SEVERE LEVELS. NRN LA MCS APPEARS TO BE FWD PROPAGATING AT THIS TIME AND CONTINUES TO MOVE ALONG NRN EDGE OF SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY GRADIENT. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH OR MCV APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COMPLEX. ADDITIONAL STORMS...LIKELY ELEVATED...HAVE PERSISTED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS TO THE NORTH OF GULF COAST WARM FRONT FROM SRN MS ACROSS SRN AL...THE WRN FL PNHDL...AND SRN GA. MUCH OF THIS CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE MULTICELLULAR AS STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR WAS SITUATED TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE WITHIN A ZONE OF STRONG MOISTURE FLUX AND LIFT TO THE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. ASCENT AND SHEAR MAY STRENGTHEN AS MCV MOVES EAST THIS MORNING AND...COUPLED WITH DIURNAL HEATING...RESULT IN GRADUAL STORM INTENSIFICATION. ..CARBIN.. 06/01/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD... 32668324 31898297 30958258 31058660 30838894 30409339 30899558 31429562 32659391 33229126 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 1 14:27:56 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 01 Jun 2004 09:27:56 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406011427.i51ERrj05849@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 011427 SWOMCD SPC MCD 011426 FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-011530- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1034 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0926 AM CDT TUE JUN 01 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LA EWD TO SWRN GA/NWRN FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 011426Z - 011530Z WW WILL BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT HOUR FOR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION FROM SRN LA EWD TO SWRN GA/NWRN FL. WELL ORGANIZED MCV ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER SWRN-CENTRAL MS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ESEWD WITHIN PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT...REACHING SWRN AL BY 18Z AND NEAR SWRN GA BY 21Z. REGIONAL RADARS ALSO SHOW EMBEDDED BOW SIGNATURES WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING EWD ACROSS FAR SRN AL ALONG THE COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDS FROM FAR SRN GA WWD TO SRN LA. AIR MASS ALONG/S OF THIS BOUNDARY IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE...GIVEN A VERY MOIST INFLUX OF GULF AIR. AUGMENTED DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF THE MCV WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION THIS MORNING FROM SRN LA/SERN MS EWD TO SWRN GA/NWRN FL. BOWING SEGMENTS PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...THOUGH ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES. ..PETERS.. 06/01/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH... 29208982 29429246 31049216 31588982 31448707 31468448 31318344 29798330 29548512 29568684 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 1 15:12:53 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 01 Jun 2004 10:12:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406011512.i51FCoj03105@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 011511 SWOMCD SPC MCD 011511 NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-011615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1035 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1011 AM CDT TUE JUN 01 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL-ERN NY/CENTRAL-ERN PA TO NRN VA/MD/DE INCLUDING DC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 011511Z - 011615Z WW MAY BE REQUIRED SOON FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL-ERN NY/PA SWD TO NRN VA/MD/DE INCLUDING DC. PRIMARY THREATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. 14Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK FRONT EXTENDING FROM ERN NY SWWD TO WRN VA ALONG THE APPALACHIANS. AIR MASS ALONG AND EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY IS MOIST WITH OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATING THE CIN IS WEAKENING WITH TIME. THE AREA FROM CENTRAL-ERN NY SWD TO PORTIONS OF VA/MD IS BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WV IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORT WAVE TROUGH/MCV OVER ERN OH ATTM...WITH A SECOND WEAKER WAVE ACROSS NERN KY. THESE FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PROVIDE THE NEEDED LARGE SCALE ASCENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA OF CONCERN... GIVEN THE LACK OF WELL DEFINED AND EXPECTED WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER NRN VA/MD TO ERN PA/ERN NY AND DECREASING SOMEWHAT ACROSS CENTRAL NY WILL SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION. ..PETERS.. 06/01/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...AKQ...BUF...CTP...LWX...RNK... 42057815 43127789 43877481 42817411 41367429 38497506 37277569 37587837 39647886 41577847 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 1 16:11:05 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 01 Jun 2004 11:11:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406011611.i51GB3j08818@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 011608 SWOMCD SPC MCD 011607 FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-011730- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1036 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1107 AM CDT TUE JUN 01 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LA/SRN MS EWD TO SRN GA/NRN FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 365... VALID 011607Z - 011730Z DAMAGING WIND THREAT INCREASING ACROSS SERN MS INTO SWRN AL. NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED TO THE EAST OF WW 365 ACROSS NRN FL THIS AFTERNOON. 15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS COMBINED WITH VIS/RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS OVER SRN AL/WRN FL PANHANDLE...EXTENDING FROM COASTAL AREA OF SWRN AL WNWWD TO THE FAST MOVING BOW ECHO OVER SRN MS. AIR MASS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE...WITH THE FASTEST PORTION OF THE BOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ITS ESEWD MOVEMENT AT AROUND 40 KT ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT. DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS SERN MS THROUGH 17Z...AND ACROSS FAR SWRN AL/FAR WRN FL PANHANDLE BETWEEN 1630-18Z. SURFACE ANALYSIS ACROSS SRN GA/NRN FL INDICATED TWO SURFACE BOUNDARIES. A SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM SERN GA SWWD TO THE FL PANHANDLE...WITH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH ACROSS FAR NRN FL. AIR MASS ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE AND SHOULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASES FROM THE WEST WITH THE APPROACH OF TWO MCV/S...ONE CURRENTLY OVER SERN AL AND THE OTHER ACROSS SERN MS. WW MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE REST OF FAR NRN FL THIS AFTERNOON AS ACTIVITY ACROSS SWRN GA/CENTRAL FL PANHANDLE APPROACHES THIS REGION AND/OR ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS NRN FL SHOW SIGNS OF BETTER ORGANIZATION. ..PETERS.. 06/01/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH... 29729346 31769105 31808190 30698150 30028139 29638337 29658458 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 1 18:32:18 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 01 Jun 2004 13:32:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406011832.i51IWEj01304@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 011831 SWOMCD SPC MCD 011830 WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-011930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1037 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0130 PM CDT TUE JUN 01 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO/SRN IL/SRN IND/SRN OH/WRN-NRN KY/FAR WRN WV CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 011830Z - 011930Z THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SERN MO/SRN IL/WRN KY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS SRN IND INTO NRN KY/SWRN OH THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WW MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA EXTENDING FROM SERN MO/ WRN KY/SRN IL EWD TO SRN OH/FAR WRN WV. SURFACE STREAMLINE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A ZONE OF CONFLUENCE EXTENDING FROM FAR WRN TN/FAR SERN MO TOWARD SWRN OH INDICATIVE OF A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH. SSWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT MOISTURE NNEWD ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S INTO SWRN IND AND MID 50S INTO CENTRAL-NRN KY. PLUME OF STEEP LAPSE RATES EXTENDING FROM THE MID MS TO LOWER OH VALLEYS COMBINED WITH CONTINUED SURFACE HEATING AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL SUPPORT MARGINAL INSTABILITY. LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOCATED FROM CENTRAL IND SWWD TO SRN IL WILL SPREAD EWD AIDING ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE DESTABILIZING AIR MASS. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT WITH ANY STORMS THAT CAN MAINTAIN AN UPDRAFT. ..PETERS.. 06/01/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IWX...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...SGF... 40328517 39508217 39098125 38238172 37648322 37668567 36658761 36208886 36558995 37579150 39629041 40438765 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 1 19:45:45 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 01 Jun 2004 14:45:45 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406011945.i51Jjej17107@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 011944 SWOMCD SPC MCD 011943 TXZ000-012145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1038 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0243 PM CDT TUE JUN 01 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CNTRL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 011943Z - 012145Z SEVERE TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN/CNTRL TX...WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS EVIDENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE SUGGESTS FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- EMBEDDED WITHIN W/NW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS WRN OK/NW TX -- WILL SPREAD E/SE ACROSS NRN/CNTRL TX THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST MESOANALYSIS/MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS PORTRAY RAPIDLY WEAKENING CINH IN ADDITION TO DEVELOPING CU/TCU -- INITIALLY IN ABI/BWD/SEP CORRIDOR -- OWING TO STRONG HEATING /90S AND LOWER 100S/ ALONG PERIPHERY OF DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS CNTRL/ERN TX. EXTREMELY UNSTABLE MLCAPE IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASING TO 35-45 KTS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. MAIN HAZARDS LIKELY TO BE LARGE HAIL OWING TO MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY/SHEAR...WITH DAMAGING WINDS/ISOLD TORNADOES POSSIBLE AS WELL. TORNADO THREAT WOULD BE MOST PROBABLE IN LOCALLY BACKED FLOW/HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN/CNTRL TX -- LIKELY ATTRIBUTABLE TO REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION. ..GUYER.. 06/01/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT... 30789940 30899961 32189944 33189910 33729831 33499632 32829525 32439510 30489553 29909655 30139822 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 1 20:27:16 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 01 Jun 2004 15:27:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406012027.i51KREj11231@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 012023 SWOMCD SPC MCD 012022 VTZ000-CTZ000-MAZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-012115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1039 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0322 PM CDT TUE JUN 01 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL-ERN NY/CENTRAL-ERN PA/NJ/CENTRAL-NRN VA/ERN WV PANHANDLE/MD/DC/DE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 366...367... VALID 012022Z - 012115Z THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS TO CONTINUE EWD ACROSS ERN PA/CENTRAL-ERN MD INTO NJ AND THE DELMARVA AREA. AT 2015Z...REGIONAL RADARS SHOW AN ORGANIZED LINE OF STORMS WITH EMBEDDED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EXTENDING FROM WYOMING COUNTY PA SWD TO RICHMOND COUNTY VA. THIS LINE IS MOVING TO THE EAST AROUND 35 KT WITH EMBEDDED SEGMENTS MOVING EWD AT 40 KT. DESPITE MARGINAL INSTABILITY...THIS WELL ORGANIZED LINE...WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH...WILL LIKELY PRODUCE ADDITIONAL WIND DAMAGE EWD ACROSS ERN PA/CENTRAL-ERN MD INTO NJ AND THE DELMARVA AREA THROUGH 22Z. FARTHER N ACROSS NY...WEAKER DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS CENTRAL NY WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MULTI-CELL ACTIVITY...WHILE STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS ERN NY INTO NJ SUPPORTS SUPERCELLS. HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH ALL OF THESE STORMS. STORMS ACROSS SERN NY WILL MOVE INTO WRN CT AND WRN LONG ISLAND BETWEEN 21-22Z AND MAY POSE A SEVERE THREAT...BUT SMALL AREAL COVERAGE AND A MORE STABLE AIR MASS NWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE THE ISSUANCE OF A NEW WW TO THE EAST OF WW 367. ..PETERS.. 06/01/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...AKQ...BUF...CTP...LWX...RNK... 37567506 37567762 37597880 38137937 39887874 42477762 44007705 43997271 41637364 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 1 20:59:59 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 01 Jun 2004 15:59:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406012100.i51Kxwj00356@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 012056 SWOMCD SPC MCD 012056 PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-VAZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-012130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1040 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0356 PM CDT TUE JUN 01 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN OH/CENTRAL-ERN KY/WV/SWRN PA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 370... VALID 012056Z - 012130Z DAMAGING WIND THREAT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EWD OF WW 370 IN THE NEXT 30-60 MINUTES AFFECTING MUCH OF WV AND SWRN VA...WARRANTING THE ISSUANCE OF A NEW WW SHORTLY. FAST MOVING BOW ECHO /EWD AT 40-50 KT/ ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL OH INTO CENTRAL-ERN KY WILL EXIT WW 370 BETWEEN 2130-22Z. GIVEN WELL ORGANIZED BOW ECHO ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND BAND OF 60 KT WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW...NEW WW WILL BE ISSUED SOON TO THE EAST OF WW 370. ..PETERS.. 06/01/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RNK...PBZ...RLX...CLE...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH... 36748722 40758393 40737972 39577950 38407975 37328107 36668317  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 1 21:32:08 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 01 Jun 2004 16:32:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406012132.i51LW3j26841@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 012128 SWOMCD SPC MCD 012127 FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-012300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1041 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0427 PM CDT TUE JUN 01 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LA/SRN AL/SRN MS/SRN GA/NRN FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 365...368... VALID 012127Z - 012300Z CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT REMAINING VALID PORTIONS OF SEVERE WW 365 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 22Z. CONTINUE SEVERE WW 368 ACROSS NRN FL/SE GA. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS AIRMASS REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE ACROSS SRN GA/NRN FL...WITH MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 35-45 KTS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STORM ORGANIZATION...WITH DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL REMAINING POSSIBLE ACROSS WW 368. FURTHER WEST...TSTM CLUSTERS HAVE PUSHED EFFECTIVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SUFFICIENTLY OFFSHORE ACROSS MUCH OF WW 365...SUGGESTING END TO SEVERE THREAT REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON. ONE EXCEPTION FOR CONTINUAL REGENERATION OF TSTMS/ISOLD SEVERE WILL BE ALONG S/SW PROPAGATING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/MESOSCALE COLD POOL ACROSS SRN LA...TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED IN THIS REGION. ..GUYER.. 06/01/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...TBW...JAX...TAE...FFC...BMX...MOB...LIX...LCH... 29488478 31448235 31457883 29488128 31818186 29678462 29739336 30919212 30808642 31898539 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 1 22:07:49 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 01 Jun 2004 17:07:49 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406012207.i51M7kj25047@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 012204 SWOMCD SPC MCD 012204 TXZ000-OKZ000-012330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1042 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0504 PM CDT TUE JUN 01 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX/SE OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 012204Z - 012330Z TSTM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS ERN TX AND POSSIBLY SRN OK EARLY THIS EVENING. WW WILL BE ISSUED SOON. SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING SEWD ACROSS SRN OK/NRN TX WILL SPREAD FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ACROSS ERN TX/SRN OK EARLY THIS EVENING. AS SUCH...SEVERE TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/PROPAGATE EWD INTO STRONG INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN TX -- ALONG REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY -- CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPES IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG AND MINIMAL CINH. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50 KTS WILL SUPPORT THREAT OF SUPERCELLS...WITH VERY LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS/ISOLATED TORNADOES. SUPPORTED BY INCREASING S/SW LOW LEVEL JET THIS EVENING...TSTMS MAY CONGEAL AND/OR EXPAND NEWD ACROSS NE TX/SE OK. ..GUYER.. 06/01/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...OUN... 33909708 34219562 33219504 31119540 30809657 31139732 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 2 03:06:16 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 01 Jun 2004 22:06:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406020306.i5236Bj23587@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 020135 SWOMCD SPC MCD 020134 KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-020230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1046 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0834 PM CDT TUE JUN 01 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CNTRL TX CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 371...373... VALID 020134Z - 020230Z ...POTENTIALLY DAMAGING CLUSTER OF SUPERCELLS WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE METROPLEX THIS EVENING... INTENSE ELONGATED BAND OF SUPERCELLS IS MOVING SEWD INTO THE METROPLEX AS COLD POOL BEGINS TO SURGE SWD ACROSS NCNTRL TX. THIS ACTIVITY IS DRIVING INTO A VERY MOIST/DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG ERN EDGE OF CAP. ALTHOUGH LLJ IS NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY THIS EVENING...SSWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW JUST OFF THE SURFACE AND STRONG VEERING PROFILES FAVOR LONG LIVED SUPERCELLS THAT SHOULD PROPAGATE ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF TX INTO PORTIONS OF ERN TX LATE THIS EVENING. VERY LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...WITH AN INCREASING THREAT FOR DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. ..DARROW.. 06/02/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX... 38098919 38898712 38878496 38288326 36958386 36908703  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 2 03:47:34 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 01 Jun 2004 22:47:34 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406020347.i523lSj11224@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 020346 SWOMCD SPC MCD 020345 MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-020445- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1047 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1045 PM CDT TUE JUN 01 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...EAST TX...LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 374... VALID 020345Z - 020445Z ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED TO INCLUDE MUCH OF LA... DEVELOPING MCS IS SURGING SEWD AT 40-50KT ACROSS NERN TX WITH LEADING EDGE OF STRONGEST ACTIVITY NOW EXTENDING FROM WOOD COUNTY...ARCING SWWD INTO NAVARRO COUNTY. EXPANDING PRECIPITATION SHIELD IN THE WAKE OF THE SQUALL LINE SUGGESTS THIS COMPLEX WILL MAINTAIN ITS FORWARD PROPAGATION ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF WW INTO NWRN LA BY 06Z. WW WILL BE ISSUED DOWNSTREAM SHORTLY. ..DARROW.. 06/02/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD... 33349533 32689317 31389076 30269154 31389546 32209717 32709575 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 2 06:36:01 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 02 Jun 2004 01:36:01 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406020635.i526Ztj21053@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 020635 SWOMCD SPC MCD 020634 LAZ000-TXZ000-020830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1048 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0134 AM CDT WED JUN 02 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...EAST TX AND LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 374...375... VALID 020634Z - 020830Z SEVERE BOW ECHO MOVING ESEWD ABOUT 50KT SHOULD CONTINUE TO CROSS MUCH OF NRN AND CNTRL LA THROUGH 08Z/3AM CDT. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP ATOP MCS COLD POOL ACROSS TX BUT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ISOLD. MATURE LINEAR MCS WITH LEADING LINE/TRAILING STRATIFORM FORMATION AND WELL DEVELOPED MESOHIGH EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE OCCASIONAL DAMAGING WINDS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL PARISHES OF NRN LA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. FAVORABLE MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT INCLUDES ABUNDANT DOWNSTREAM MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AS WELL AS 40-50KT REAR INFLOW JET AND STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE RISES IN THE WAKE OF THE LINE. GIVEN THESE INGREDIENTS...IT APPEARS THAT SEVERE WIND POTENTIAL MAY EXTEND SEWD OF TSTM WATCH 375 AND A NEW WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED ACROSS PARTS OF SERN LA BEFORE 09Z/4AM CDT. ..CARBIN.. 06/02/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD... 30049193 30579385 31099804 33279807 32729383 32159190 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 2 10:46:59 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 02 Jun 2004 05:46:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406021046.i52Akrj05974@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 021046 SWOMCD SPC MCD 021045 MSZ000-LAZ000-021245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1049 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0545 AM CDT WED JUN 02 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LA/SRN MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 376... VALID 021045Z - 021245Z LARGE BOWED SQUALL LINE WAS MOVING EAST ACROSS SERN LA AND SRN MS AT ABOUT 40KT. CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY INTENSIFIED ALONG THE OUTFLOW MOVING INTO SERN LA AND AIRMASS IN THIS AREA REMAINS VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE. FARTHER NORTH...ACROSS MS...AIRMASS WAS A SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE. HOWEVER...STRONG MID LEVEL REAR INFLOW JET OF 50-60KT WAS NOTED ON WINNFIELD PROFILER AND WAS MOVING INTO THIS REGION. PRIMARY THREAT ALONG THE LINE WILL REMAIN DAMAGING WINDS. AT CURRENT MOTION...STORMS SHOULD REACH ERN EDGE OF SVR TSTM WATCH 376 SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. INTENSITY TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AND A NEW WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IF STORM ORGANIZATION AND STRENGTH IS MAINTAINED. ..CARBIN.. 06/02/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV... 29998915 30009185 32719194 32718921 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 2 12:42:30 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 02 Jun 2004 07:42:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406021242.i52CgOj03894@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 021241 SWOMCD SPC MCD 021241 ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-021415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1050 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0741 AM CDT WED JUN 02 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MS/AL...WRN FL PNHDL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 021241Z - 021415Z BROKEN SQUALL LINE EXTENDS FROM CNTRL MS ACROSS THE MS DELTA THIS MORNING WITH LOCALLY INTENSE UPDRAFTS LIKELY PRODUCING 25-35KT WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL ALONG WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. A STRONG MCV/MID LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BEEN GENERATED IN THE WAKE OF THE OVERNIGHT MCS AND WAS TRACKING ACROSS CNTRL MS ATTM. MARGINAL DOWNSTREAM INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR BASED ON LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL DATA SUGGEST ONLY LIMITED SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL AND WATCH 376 WILL EXPIRE AT 8AM CDT/13Z. A NEW WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IN ANOTHER HOUR OR SO AS DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION GETS UNDERWAY AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCV MOVES EAST ACROSS AL AND THE WRN FL PNHDL. ..CARBIN.. 06/02/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX... 30258615 30078875 30038923 31268914 32048896 32688917 32868754 32818586 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 2 15:47:03 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 02 Jun 2004 10:47:03 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406021546.i52Fkvj03056@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 021546 SWOMCD SPC MCD 021545 PAZ000-NYZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-021745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1051 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1045 AM CDT WED JUN 02 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...E CNTRL IND...CNTRL AND NRN OH...PA...SRN NY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 021545Z - 021745Z SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. A WW MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON. LATE THIS MORNING A SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM ERN LOWER MI SWWD THROUGH NRN IND AND NRN IL. ANOTHER BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE LOW IN WRN LAKE ERIE EWD THROUGH WRN AND CNTRL NY. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS SUBSTANTIAL HEATING WILL OCCUR IN MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S AND WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT MLCAPE TO AOB 1000 J/KG. A COUPLE OF MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA ARE OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...ONE OVER NW IND AND ANOTHER OVER LAKE ERIE. ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES...WEAK CAP...CONVERGENCE ALONG LAKE BREEZES...SURFACE BOUNDARIES AND OROGRAPHIC FORCING WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED STORMS INTO THE AFTERNOON. A 40-50 KT MID LEVEL JET ON SRN PERIPHERY OF A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE KINEMATIC PROFILES AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR STORMS TO ORGANIZE WITHIN UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW REGIME. ..DIAL.. 06/02/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND... 39588560 40118595 41018507 41378171 42547583 40297537 39757740 39758073 39598384 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 2 16:27:16 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 02 Jun 2004 11:27:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406021627.i52GR9j30125@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 021626 SWOMCD SPC MCD 021626 TXZ000-021830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1052 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1126 AM CDT WED JUN 02 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SE...CNTRL THROUGH NW TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 021626Z - 021830Z SE THROUGH CNTRL AND NW TX ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION. SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL...ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. A WW WILL BE NEEDED ONCE INITIATION SEEMS IMMINENT. LATE THIS MORNING A LARGE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM THE SWRN GULF OF MEXICO NWWD THROUGH SE TX NEAR HOUSTON...CNTRL TX AND INTO NW TX JUST W OF MINERAL WELLS. THE ATMOSPHERE IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE HEATING CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE FROM 3000 TO 3500 J/KG. MID LEVEL FLOW IS RELATIVELY WEAK AND GENERALLY NWLY AOB 20 KT. HOWEVER... SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY VEERING TO NWLY AT 6 KM IS RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS INCREASING IN VICINITY OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. AS CAP CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...A FEW STORMS MAY INITIATE WITHIN ZONE OF LOW LEVEL FORCING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. ..DIAL.. 06/02/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT... 28919528 29439652 30609820 33299971 33759881 32829775 31279613 29889420 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 2 16:51:49 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 02 Jun 2004 11:51:49 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406021651.i52Gpgj14619@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 021651 SWOMCD SPC MCD 021650 OKZ000-KSZ000-021815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1053 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1150 AM CDT WED JUN 02 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN KS THROUGH CNTR AND ERN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 377... VALID 021650Z - 021815Z STORMS CURRENTLY OVER SRN KS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING SEWD INTO CNTRL AND ERN OK THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. A NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FARTHER SEWD FOR PARTS OF CNTRL AND ERN OK. LATE THIS MORNING AN MCS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS OVER S CNTRL KS IS MOVING SEWD AT 40 KT TOWARD NRN OK. THE STORMS HAVE PREVIOUSLY BEEN ELEVATED. HOWEVER...RECENT REPORTS SUGGEST ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE NOW REACHING THE SURFACE...AND STORMS APPEAR TO HAVE ORGANIZED A COLD POOL WITH FORWARD PROPAGATION ALONG THE SRN FLANKS. AN E-W SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS NRN OK. S OF THIS BOUNDARY THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS THE CAP WEAKENING IN VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY. NEW STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEADING CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCS AS IT CONTINUES SEWD TOWARD STRONGER INSTABILITY AND WEAKER CAP. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES. ..DIAL.. 06/02/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA... 34909747 36049912 37480069 37789891 36549484 35399523 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 2 17:03:29 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 02 Jun 2004 12:03:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406021703.i52H3Mj22371@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 021626 SWOMCD SPC MCD 021626 TXZ000-021830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1052 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1126 AM CDT WED JUN 02 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SE...CNTRL THROUGH NW TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 021626Z - 021830Z SE THROUGH CNTRL AND NW TX ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION. SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL...ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. A WW WILL BE NEEDED ONCE INITIATION SEEMS IMMINENT. LATE THIS MORNING A LARGE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM THE SWRN GULF OF MEXICO NWWD THROUGH SE TX NEAR HOUSTON...CNTRL TX AND INTO NW TX JUST W OF MINERAL WELLS. THE ATMOSPHERE IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE HEATING CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE FROM 3000 TO 3500 J/KG. MID LEVEL FLOW IS RELATIVELY WEAK AND GENERALLY NWLY AOB 20 KT. HOWEVER... SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY VEERING TO NWLY AT 6 KM IS RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS INCREASING IN VICINITY OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. AS CAP CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...A FEW STORMS MAY INITIATE WITHIN ZONE OF LOW LEVEL FORCING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. ..DIAL.. 06/02/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT... 28919528 29439652 30609820 33299971 33759881 32829775 31279613 29889420  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 2 17:14:59 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 02 Jun 2004 12:14:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406021714.i52HEvj29883@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 021651 SWOMCD SPC MCD 021650 OKZ000-KSZ000-021815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1053 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1150 AM CDT WED JUN 02 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN KS THROUGH CNTR AND ERN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 377... VALID 021650Z - 021815Z STORMS CURRENTLY OVER SRN KS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING SEWD INTO CNTRL AND ERN OK THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. A NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FARTHER SEWD FOR PARTS OF CNTRL AND ERN OK. LATE THIS MORNING AN MCS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS OVER S CNTRL KS IS MOVING SEWD AT 40 KT TOWARD NRN OK. THE STORMS HAVE PREVIOUSLY BEEN ELEVATED. HOWEVER...RECENT REPORTS SUGGEST ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE NOW REACHING THE SURFACE...AND STORMS APPEAR TO HAVE ORGANIZED A COLD POOL WITH FORWARD PROPAGATION ALONG THE SRN FLANKS. AN E-W SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS NRN OK. S OF THIS BOUNDARY THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS THE CAP WEAKENING IN VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY. NEW STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEADING CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCS AS IT CONTINUES SEWD TOWARD STRONGER INSTABILITY AND WEAKER CAP. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES. ..DIAL.. 06/02/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA... 34909747 36049912 37480069 37789891 36549484 35399523  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 2 17:15:19 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 02 Jun 2004 12:15:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406021715.i52HFCj30539@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 021714 SWOMCD SPC MCD 021714 GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-021845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1054 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1214 PM CDT WED JUN 02 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SE AL/SRN GA/FL PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 021714Z - 021845Z DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAY INCREASE ACROSS SE AL/SRN GA/FL PANHANDLE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. IN SPITE OF MODEST WIND PROFILES...APPEARS GULF COAST MCV/DEVELOPING COLD POOL WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE CONVECTION EWD AT 35-40 KTS ACROSS SE AL/SRN GA/FL PANHANDLE. AIRMASS AHEAD OF CONVECTIVE LINE IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE...WITH 80F TEMPERATURES/70F DEWPOINTS SUPPORTING MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG AND MODEST LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. GIVEN CONTINUAL DOWNSTREAM DESTABILIZATION AND COLD POOL/LINEAR NATURE OF CONVECTION...THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS MAY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH AT LEAST MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL POSSIBLE AS WELL. ..GUYER.. 06/02/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB... 30348675 31138668 32458628 32458454 32028299 30358279 29648335 29848580 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 2 17:43:36 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 02 Jun 2004 12:43:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406021743.i52HhTj17346@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 021742 SWOMCD SPC MCD 021742 TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-021945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1055 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1242 PM CDT WED JUN 02 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AR AND EXTREME SRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 021742Z - 021945Z STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS NRN AR THIS AFTERNOON. SUPERCELLS WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. A WW MAY BE NEEDED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. EARLY THIS AFTERNOON A QUASISTATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS NRN AR FROM NEAR SPRINGDALE EWD INTO THE BOOTHILL OF SE MO. THE ATMOSPHERE IN VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 70...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE HEATING CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE FROM 2500 TO 3000 J/KG. AS CAP CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND SPREAD SEWD. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS WEAK. HOWEVER...A BAND OF 30 TO 40 KT WNWLY MID LEVEL FLOW ON SRN PERIPHERY OF A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN SHEAR THROUGH A DEEPER LAYER SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. ..DIAL.. 06/02/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...TSA... 34789220 34689427 35349430 36189200 36598990 35708988 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 2 18:41:29 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 02 Jun 2004 13:41:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406021841.i52IfLj25639@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 021840 SWOMCD SPC MCD 021840 TXZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-022115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1056 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0140 PM CDT WED JUN 02 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...E CNTRL THROUGH SE CO...NERN NM AND THE WRN OK AND TX PANHANDLES CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 021840Z - 022115Z HIGH BASED CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CO AND NM EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREATS. HOWEVER...ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS STORMS DEVELOP FARTHER EWD INTO THE MOIST AXIS. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT A WW MIGHT BE NEEDED BY 20-21Z. EARLY THIS AFTERNOON HIGH BASED CONVECTION WAS OBSERVED DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NERN NM INTO S CNTRL CO. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS AND A THERMAL LOW OVER THE SW U.S. HAS ESTABLISHED A LOW LEVEL ELY UPSLOPE COMPONENT ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAKENING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING SWWD THROUGH SWRN KS INTO THE OK PANHANDLE. S OF THIS BOUNDARY AN AXIS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL CONTINUE ADVECTING WWD. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL SUPPORT AN AXIS OF MLCAPE FROM 1000 TO 2000 J/KG FROM SERN CO THROUGH NERN NM INTO THE TX/OK PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD INTENSIFY AS THEY INTERCEPT THE INSTABILITY AXIS. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREATS. ..DIAL.. 06/02/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AMA...PUB...ABQ... 35720412 37180421 38320412 37740251 36050195 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 2 19:36:40 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 02 Jun 2004 14:36:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406021936.i52JaWj29549@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 021935 SWOMCD SPC MCD 021935 ARZ000-OKZ000-022130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1057 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0235 PM CDT WED JUN 02 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL OK THROUGH NW AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 378... VALID 021935Z - 022130Z WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND WITH POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIKELY NEXT COUPLE HOURS AS LINEAR MCS MOVES SEWD THROUGH CNTRL AND ERN OK. LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LINE. A NEW WW IS BEING CONSIDERED FOR PARTS OF SRN AND WRN OK. THIS AFTERNOON A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS FROM NE OK JUST NW OF TULSA SWWD THROUGH JUST NW OF OKLAHOMA CITY AND IS MOVING SEWD AT AROUND 30 KT. THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CONVECTION HAS MERGED WITH AN E-W STATIONARY FRONT AND EXTENDS WWD THROUGH WRN OK. THE ATMOSPHERE S OF THIS BOUNDARY REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE FROM 3000 TO 3500 J/KG AND WITH RELATIVELY WEAK CAP FROM CNTRL THROUGH ERN OK. THE 40 KT SLY STORM RELATIVE FLOW AND WEAK CAP IN THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD MAINTAIN A FORWARD PROPAGATING LINE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 80 MPH HAVE BEEN REPORTED AND WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES SEWD THROUGH THE AXIS OF STRONG INSTABILITY NEXT 2-3 HOURS. STORMS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO INITIATE ALONG WRN PORTION OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS WRN OK...MOIST LIKELY DUE TO A STRONGER CAP IN THIS AREA. HOWEVER...AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO WARM...INITIATION AND BACKBUILDING FARTHER W WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY PROBABLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. OTHER STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING FARTHER E ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT FROM E CNTRL OK THROUGH NW AR. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY ALSO. DUE TO THE SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THIS ACTIVITY...VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH RATES IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES PER HOUR MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY. ..DIAL.. 06/02/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...OUN... 35009844 35639906 35939735 36619552 36419446 35829350 34889413 34729658 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 2 20:23:16 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 02 Jun 2004 15:23:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406022023.i52KN8j28514@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 022020 SWOMCD SPC MCD 022019 TXZ000-022215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1058 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0319 PM CDT WED JUN 02 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...W AND SW TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 022019Z - 022215Z WW MAY BE NEEDED SOON. CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE DRYLINE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS IT SPREADS EWD. SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. THIS AFTERNOON THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE E OF DRYLINE ACROSS W TX WITH MLCAPE FROM 2500 TO 3500 J/KG. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS INCREASING ALONG THE DRYLINE ACROSS W TX AND DEEP CONVECTION APPEARS IMMINENT. OTHER STORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SW TX. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS THEY SPREAD EWD INTO THE AXIS OF STRONGER INSTABILITY. MID LEVEL FLOW IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...GENERALLY AOB 25 KT. HOWEVER...SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERING TO WNWLY AOA 6 KM IS SUPPORTING DEEP SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. ..DIAL.. 06/02/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF... 32460217 34780187 34640024 33419991 30700144 30310267 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 2 20:31:18 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 02 Jun 2004 15:31:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406022031.i52KVBj01829@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 022030 SWOMCD SPC MCD 022029 WVZ000-VAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-OHZ000-ARZ000-022200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1059 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0329 PM CDT WED JUN 02 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...TN/ERN KY/WV/WRN VA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 022029Z - 022200Z LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...DAYTIME HEATING/SWLY MOISTURE FEED IS SUPPORTING MLCAPE FROM 500-1000 J/KG ACROSS ERN KY...TO 2000 J/KG ACROSS WRN TN PER LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES/DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 35 KTS WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS...WITH ATTENDANT LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND HAZARDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ..GUYER.. 06/02/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG... 36098961 37148611 38168365 39078096 38758062 38058043 37008094 36288272 35728572 35458746 35218888 35848967 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 2 21:51:21 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 02 Jun 2004 16:51:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406022151.i52LpCj24006@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 022149 SWOMCD SPC MCD 022149 ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-022245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1060 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0449 PM CDT WED JUN 02 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...AR...SRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 379...380... VALID 022149Z - 022245Z ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED ACROSS PORTIONS OF AR INTO NERN TX WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR... GRADUALLY EXPANDING MCS CONTINUES TO MATURE OVER ERN OK INTO NWRN AR. AN EXTENSIVE POST SQUALL LINE PRECIPITATION SHIELD AND A WELL DEFINED ZONE OF PRESSURE RISES SHOULD ALLOW MCS TO CONTINUE PROPAGATING SEWD INTO THE ARKLATEX OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SEVERE WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN MEASURED AS SEVERAL MESONET LOCATIONS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST CORES. WW WILL BE ISSUED SOON. ..DARROW.. 06/02/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... 34549771 34509621 35009456 35909318 34999154 33849206 33099422 34059749 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 2 23:10:58 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 02 Jun 2004 18:10:58 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406022310.i52NAoj05321@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 022309 SWOMCD SPC MCD 022308 TXZ000-030015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1061 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0608 PM CDT WED JUN 02 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...TX PANHANDLE/SOUTH PLAINS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 381...383... VALID 022308Z - 030015Z ...NUMEROUS SUPERCELL CLUSTERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE PANHANDLE... NELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS INCREASING ACROSS THE NERN TX PANHANDLE IN THE WAKE OF OK MCS. HYBRID CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW/FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM JACKSON COUNTY OK...NWWD TO DALLAM COUNTY TX. STRONG HEATING AND MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS OVER THE TX PANHANDLE HAVE ALSO AIDED WWD PUSH TO DRY LINE INTO NERN NM. RELATIVELY HIGH BASED SUPERCELL ACTIVITY MAY INTERACT WITH VARIOUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND INCREASING ELY LOW LEVEL COMPONENT...WITH TIME LOWERING CLOUD BASES AND POSSIBLY ENHANCING THE TORNADIC POTENTIAL AS THE EVENING CONTINUES. ..DARROW.. 06/02/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF... 32630212 34610214 36410280 36450131 35250001 33160041 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 2 23:30:55 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 02 Jun 2004 18:30:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406022330.i52NUkj16103@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 022328 SWOMCD SPC MCD 022327 KSZ000-COZ000-030100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1062 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0627 PM CDT WED JUN 02 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO/WRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 022327Z - 030100Z ISOLD SUPERCELLS WITH PRIMARILY LARGE HAIL THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS ERN CO/FAR WRN KS EARLY THIS EVENING. DEVELOPMENT NORTH OF WW 381 IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLD...THUS LIKELY PRECLUDING NECESSITY FOR WW. POST-FRONTAL E/SE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISOLD SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS ERN CO/FAR WRN KS THIS EVENING. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS PORTRAYS MUCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG IN CORRIDOR SOUTH OF I-70. SUPERCELL MODE SUPPORTED BY VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 50-65 KTS -- PER PLT/ADA/RWD PROFILERS -- WITH E/SE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IN PLACE BENEATH 50 KT MID LEVEL W/NW FLOW. LARGE HAIL /AND POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS/ WILL EXIST WITH MOST VIGOROUS ACTIVITY AS STORMS DEVELOP/PROPAGATE SEWD ACROSS ERN CO/FAR WRN KS. ..GUYER.. 06/02/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU... 39430336 39630276 39250153 38060103 37730102 37500194 37490329 38120360 38890355 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 3 00:13:04 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 02 Jun 2004 19:13:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406030012.i530Cuj06701@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 030012 SWOMCD SPC MCD 030011 TXZ000-OKZ000-030145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1063 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0711 PM CDT WED JUN 02 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN TX...SWRN OK CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 381...383...387... VALID 030011Z - 030145Z ...VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF NWRN TX INTO SWRN OK...IN ADDITION TO THE THREATS OF STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL... SERN OK MCS HAS FORCED AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTO NWRN TX JUST SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER...WHERE IT APPEARS TO BE STALLING AHEAD OF SEWD-MOVING LARGE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE. REGIONAL TRENDS SUGGEST ANOTHER EMERGING MCS WILL EXPAND AND MOVE SEWD ALONG EXISTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS NWRN TX TOWARD THE DALLAS/FT WORTH METROPLEX. VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREATS WELL INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS. ..DARROW.. 06/03/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA... 35249975 34409848 33439670 32629714 33069891 34360043 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 3 00:19:24 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 02 Jun 2004 19:19:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406030019.i530JMj10002@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 030018 SWOMCD SPC MCD 030018 GAZ000-FLZ000-030115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1064 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0718 PM CDT WED JUN 02 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SE GA/NRN FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 382... VALID 030018Z - 030115Z LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING/SFC BASED INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE A DIMINISHING SEVERE TREND ACROSS SRN GA/NRN FL REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. IF TRENDS CONTINUE...WW 382 WILL LIKELY BE CANCELLED PRIOR TO 02Z EXPIRATION. MCS/CONVECTIVE COMPLEX HAS EFFECTIVELY STABILIZED BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS MUCH OF WW 382...ALTHOUGH SHORT TERM SEVERE THREAT DOES PERSIST INVOF COASTAL SE GA/NE FL WHERE SBCAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG REMAINS ALONG/AHEAD OF CONVECTIVE CLUSTER. LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING/DIABATIC HEATING IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER PROMOTE DIMINISHING SEVERE THREAT THIS EVENING. ..GUYER.. 06/03/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX... 29568253 31418203 31308130 29548168 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 3 00:29:13 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 02 Jun 2004 19:29:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406030029.i530T5j15300@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 030028 SWOMCD SPC MCD 030028 LAZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-030200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1065 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0728 PM CDT WED JUN 02 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AR...NRN LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 385... VALID 030028Z - 030200Z LARGE...INTENSE BOW ECHO CONTINUES TO SURGE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHWEST AR AND NORTHEAST TX. NEW WW WILL BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT HOUR OVER NORTHERN LA AND EAST TX. SEVERE MCS IS RACING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHWEST AR AND NORTHEAST TX AT OVER 40 KNOTS. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN A RISK OF WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. PRESENT TRENDS SUGGEST THAT STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SHV AREA BY 02Z...AND AEX BY 04Z. NEW WW WILL BE REQUIRED WITHIN THE HOUR FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN LA AND PORTIONS OF EAST TX. ..HART.. 06/03/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV... 33049492 33219445 33399394 33639356 34129298 33649217 32999143 32399123 31499148 31059224 31089299 31419396 31939457 32629497 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 3 01:12:24 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 02 Jun 2004 20:12:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406030112.i531CGj05483@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 030110 SWOMCD SPC MCD 030110 TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-030215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1066 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0810 PM CDT WED JUN 02 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN AR...WRN/MIDDLE TN...NRN MS/NWRN AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 384...386... VALID 030110Z - 030215Z SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...ISOLATED SEVERE...WILL PROPAGATE SEWD ACROSS REMAINDER OF WRN/MIDDLE TN INTO NRN PORTIONS OF MS/AL. THIS ACTIVITY HAS HAD TROUBLE ORGANIZING ALONG FRONTAL ZONE WITH MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY MAINTAINING MULTI CELL CHARACTERISTICS. LARGE HAIL OR PERHAPS LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS CONVECTION FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ..DARROW.. 06/03/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...OHX...HUN...MEG... 35099073 36538757 35918376 34438902 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 3 03:22:46 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 02 Jun 2004 22:22:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406030322.i533Mcj09757@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 030322 SWOMCD SPC MCD 030321 MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-030415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1067 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1021 PM CDT WED JUN 02 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX...LA...SWRN MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 388... VALID 030321Z - 030415Z ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SERN TX ACROSS LA INTO SWRN MS SHORTLY... SEVERE MCS CONTINUES TO SURGE SEWD AT ROUGHLY 40KT ACROSS SERN TX AND LA. LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER ACTIVITY SHOULD EXIT SRN MOST PORTIONS OF WW388 AROUND 04Z...THUS THE NEED TO EXTEND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH DOWNSTREAM TO ACCOUNT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ..DARROW.. 06/03/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD... 31649630 31299461 31339352 31809243 33139188 32669074 30209117 29569416 30829620 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 3 06:29:16 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 03 Jun 2004 01:29:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406030629.i536TAj02188@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 030628 SWOMCD SPC MCD 030628 LAZ000-MSZ000-TXZ000-030800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1068 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0128 AM CDT THU JUN 03 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...EAST TX...SRN LA...SRN MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 388...389... VALID 030628Z - 030800Z LEADING LARGE SCALE BOW ECHO COMPLEX CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST AT 20-30KT INTO LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE/INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS THE LWR MS VLY/MS DELTA REGION. WHILE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS REMAIN PSBL ALONG THE ARC OF DEEP CONVECTION... OVERALL WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG MUCH OF THE BOW AS THE LINE DRIFTS SOUTH OF THE STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW. ADDITIONAL LINES/CLUSTERS OF TSTMS DEVELOP UPSTREAM FROM THE LARGER BOW COMPLEX...ACROSS AREAS OF NCNTRL/CNTRL TX. THIS ACTVITY WAS FORMING ATOP THE TRAILING COLD POOL LEFT IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER DEEP CONVECTION. LOW LEVEL ASCENT AND INSTABILITY FLUX INTO THESE REGIONS AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR WIND AND LARGE HAIL WITH THIS ACTIVITY. NO ADDITIONAL WATCHES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME. ..CARBIN.. 06/03/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX... 33169045 31909040 31918998 29759002 28599498 30839497 31509172 33119055 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 3 14:52:28 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 03 Jun 2004 09:52:28 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406031452.i53EqI806217@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 031451 SWOMCD SPC MCD 031451 FLZ000-GAZ000-031715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1069 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0951 AM CDT THU JUN 03 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN GA THROUGH NRN FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 031451Z - 031715Z STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. THIS MORNING A LINE OF MULTICELL STORMS EXTENDS FROM E CNTRL AL SWWD THROUGH THE WRN FL PANHANDLE. DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS LINE...HEATING OF THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION INTO THE AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK. HOWEVER...THE STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS 65-70 WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG THE ZONE OF CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW AS IT MOVES EWD INTO INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR. OTHER MORE WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LINE. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE WEAK AND SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELLS. HOWEVER...THE MOB VWP DOES SUGGEST A BAND OF 30-40 KT WLY FLOW ON SRN PERIPHERY OF AN MCV IN THE 1 TO 5 KM LAYER IMPINGING ON THE LINE. DAMAGING WIND SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT...ESPECIALLY AS STORMS INTENSIFY ALONG THE LINE. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS DEVELOPING FARTHER EAST IN WARM SECTOR. ..DIAL.. 06/03/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...MLB...TBW...JAX...FFC...TAE... 32508462 32758316 31988137 30698157 28958116 28488232 30028360 29758495 30018543 31048497 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 3 16:48:27 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 03 Jun 2004 11:48:27 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406031648.i53GmH825653@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 031646 SWOMCD SPC MCD 031645 NCZ000-SCZ000-031845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1070 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1145 AM CDT THU JUN 03 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...COASTAL NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 031645Z - 031845Z THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL POSSIBLE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON AS CLUSTER OF STORMS DEVELOP NEWD. THREAT IS CONFINED TO A RELATIVELY SMALL AREA...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. EARLY THIS AFTERNOON A CLUSTER OF STORMS WAS OBSERVED MOVING NEWD THROUGH SERN SC. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COASTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE SC COAST NEWD THROUGH EXTREME ERN NC. BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS ALONG AND E OF THIS BOUNDARY ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S OVER COASTAL NC. STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL SUPPORT DESTABILIZATION WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT MAY BEGIN TO SHIFT NWD SLIGHTLY AS THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING NEWD ALONG THE NC COAST IN VICINITY OF THIS FEATURE. MOSTLY MULTICELL CONVECTION CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY SOME HAIL SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT. ..DIAL.. 06/03/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM... 33977792 33957876 34527856 35217594 34687596  From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 3 18:25:19 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 03 Jun 2004 13:25:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406031825.i53IPI829192@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 031824 SWOMCD SPC MCD 031824 ALZ000-MSZ000-TNZ000-ARZ000-032030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1071 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0124 PM CDT THU JUN 03 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MS THROUGH NW AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 031824Z - 032030Z THREAT FOR MAINLY ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST WITH CLUSTER OF STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS NRN MS AND SPREADING EWD INTO NW AL. OVERALL THREAT APPEARS MARGINAL...BUT AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. THIS AFTERNOON A NEAR STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS FROM SRN TN SWWD THROUGH NW MS AND SRN AR. S OF THIS BOUNDARY THE ATMOSPHERE IS DESTABILIZING ACROSS NRN MS AND NWRN AL IN WAKE OF MORNING CONVECTION . MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE MARGINAL...BUT SURFACE DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 AND SURFACE HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. THE WIND PROFILER DATA FROM NE MS SHOW WEAK FLOW THROUGH 3 KM AND WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR THROUGH 6 KM. A BAND OF STRONGER FLOW ON SRN PERIPHERY OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY SPREAD INTO NRN MS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE COLDER AIR...STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW AND STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE POST FRONTAL REGIME. GIVEN MARGINAL LAPSE RATES...MODEST INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR...LOOSELY ORGANIZED MULTICELLS SHOULD REMAIN THE DOMINANT MODE OF CONVECTION. ..DIAL.. 06/03/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK... 33259048 34169101 35078866 34378753 33368763 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 3 19:09:55 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 03 Jun 2004 14:09:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406031909.i53J9i829282@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 031908 SWOMCD SPC MCD 031907 ALZ000-MSZ000-TNZ000-ARZ000-032030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1072 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0207 PM CDT THU JUN 03 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN GA THROUGH NRN FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 390... VALID 031907Z - 032030Z THREAT FOR MAINLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL WILL CONTINUE NEXT COUPLE HOURS ACROSS SRN GA-NRN FL WITH EWD MOVING SQUALL LINE. SQUALL LINE FROM S CNTRL GA INTO THE ERN FL PANHANDLE IS MOVING EWD AT 35-40 KT. THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE TO THE E OF THE LINE WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. WEAK CAP DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS ACTIVITY AND 25 TO 30 KT UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW IN THE 1 TO 6 KM LAYER IMPINGING ON THE LINE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FORWARD PROPAGATION NEXT FEW HOURS. THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND POSSIBLY HAIL ALSO EXISTS WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY DEVELOPING DOWNSTREAM FROM LINE ON SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES. ..DIAL.. 06/03/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK... 33259048 34169101 35078866 34378753 33368763 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 3 19:43:32 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 03 Jun 2004 14:43:32 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406031943.i53JhL819238@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 031941 SWOMCD SPC MCD 031941 COR FLZ000-GAZ000-032030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1072 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0241 PM CDT THU JUN 03 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN GA THROUGH NRN FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 390... VALID 031941Z - 032030Z CORRECTED FOR WRONG HEADER THREAT FOR MAINLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL WILL CONTINUE NEXT COUPLE HOURS ACROSS SRN GA-NRN FL WITH EWD MOVING SQUALL LINE. SQUALL LINE FROM S CNTRL GA INTO THE ERN FL PANHANDLE IS MOVING EWD AT 35-40 KT. THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE TO THE E OF THE LINE WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. WEAK CAP DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS ACTIVITY AND 25 TO 30 KT UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW IN THE 1 TO 6 KM LAYER IMPINGING ON THE LINE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FORWARD PROPAGATION NEXT FEW HOURS. THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND POSSIBLY HAIL ALSO EXISTS WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY DEVELOPING DOWNSTREAM FROM LINE ON SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES. ..DIAL.. 06/03/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE... 29608434 30038334 30408306 31228309 31148176 30078135 29098172 29398408 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 3 19:49:45 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 03 Jun 2004 14:49:45 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406031949.i53JnY822890@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 031948 SWOMCD SPC MCD 031948 NEZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-WYZ000-032145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1073 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0248 PM CDT THU JUN 03 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SE WY/NEB PANHANDLE/ERN CO/FAR NE NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 031948Z - 032145Z ISOLD SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF SE WY/ERN CO/FAR NE NM AND INTO THE NEB PANHANDLE. WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. HIGH BASED SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO EVOLVE THIS AFTERNOON AS STORMS DEVELOP/PROPAGATE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. 18Z RUC SUGGESTS MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000-1750 J/KG WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF SE WY/ERN CO/FAR NE NM BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. S/SE BOUNDARY LAYER UPSLOPE TRAJECTORIES BENEATH W/NW MID AND UPPER FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-45 KTS OR GREATER... SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL LIKELY MAIN HAZARD OWING TO MAGNITUDE OF SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY...WITH DAMAGING WINDS A POSSIBILITY GIVEN INITIAL DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER PROFILES. HIGH LCLS/LFCS WILL TEND TO LIMIT TORNADO POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH STORMS WILL ENCOUNTER DEEPER MOISTURE AS THEY PROGRESS EWD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. ..GUYER.. 06/03/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...ABQ... 39200530 42590524 42820410 42590224 40650206 37540234 36980305 36340340 36320393 36500503 37500531 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 3 20:31:01 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 03 Jun 2004 15:31:01 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406032030.i53KUo817209@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 032027 SWOMCD SPC MCD 032026 TXZ000-032200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1074 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0326 PM CDT THU JUN 03 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...TX HILL COUNTRY/SCNTRL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 032026Z - 032200Z ISOLD LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING DOWNBURST WIND THREAT MAY DEVELOP REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ORIGINATING FROM MORNING MCS ACROSS W TX WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SEWD ACROSS THE TX HILL COUNTRY. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...AMPLE INSOLATION AND MID/UPPER 80S TEMPERATURES -- COMBINED WITH 60S DEWPOINTS -- ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG. IN ABSENCE OF STRONG BACKGROUND FORCING FOR ASCENT...INITIATION LARGELY CONTINGENT UPON SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE INVOF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MERGERS. MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AMIDST VERY WEAK WIND PROFILES /PER REGIONAL VWPS AND LDB PROFILER/ SUGGEST PULSE-TYPE LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH MOST VIGOROUS DEVELOPMENT. ..GUYER.. 06/03/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT... 30020077 31249760 31509641 30659570 29849578 28829857 28630003 29150041  From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 3 21:32:38 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 03 Jun 2004 16:32:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406032132.i53LWS801919@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 032130 SWOMCD SPC MCD 032129 SDZ000-NEZ000-WYZ000-032300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1075 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0429 PM CDT THU JUN 03 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN WY/SW SD/NW NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 032129Z - 032300Z LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT ACROSS FAR ERN WY/SW SD/NW NEB LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. WW MAY BE REQUIRED SOON. CU/TCU CONTINUE TO DEVELOP FROM NE WY INTO BLACK HILLS REGION OF SD/NRN NEB PANHANDLE. ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND/OR ISOLD SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY TO EVOLVE...WITH MODEST SLY FLOW BENEATH W/NW FLOW ALOFT CONTRIBUTING TO 30-40 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR PER MERRIMAN NEB PROFILER/LATEST RUC GUIDANCE LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE WITH MOST VIGOROUS ACTIVITY OWING TO STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES /8.0C OR GREATER/ AND MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG. WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER /30-40F SFC T-TD SPREADS/ SUGGESTS DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS WELL. INCREASING SLY LOW LEVEL JET THIS EVENING SUGGESTS SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. ..GUYER.. 06/03/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS... 42160455 42900481 44140478 44660423 44660225 44110060 42440070 41910109 42050352 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 3 23:06:50 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 03 Jun 2004 18:06:50 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406032306.i53N6g826876@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 032306 SWOMCD SPC MCD 032305 NEZ000-SDZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-040000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1076 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0605 PM CDT THU JUN 03 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO...WRN KS...WRN NEB...SWRN SD CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 391...393... VALID 032305Z - 040000Z ...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING HAS CONTRIBUTED TO VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS REGION FROM WRN SD...SWD INTO NERN NM. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN THIS REGION AND APPEARS TO BE EXPANDING WITHIN NARROW ZONE OF WEAK UPSLOPE COMPONENT. AS LLJ INCREASES THIS EVENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...THIS ACTIVITY MAY CONGEAL AND BECOME LOOSELY ORGANIZED AS IT PROPAGATES SWD ACROSS WRN NEB/WRN KS. LARGE HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY. ..DARROW.. 06/03/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS... 37680487 41390384 43800315 42660126 37400235 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 3 23:47:36 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 03 Jun 2004 18:47:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406032347.i53NlQ817406@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 032346 SWOMCD SPC MCD 032346 IDZ000-MTZ000-ORZ000-WAZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-040145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1077 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0646 PM CDT THU JUN 03 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN OR/SE WA/ID CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 032346Z - 040145Z ISOLD LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WITH STRONGEST STORMS EARLY THIS EVENING...WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. TSTMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE /WITH POTENTIAL ISOLD SEVERE/ EARLY THIS EVENING ALONG/AHEAD OF PACIFIC NORTHWEST MID/UPPER TROUGH. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...AMPLE INSOLATION HAS CONTRIBUTED TO BROAD AREA OF UPPER 70S/80S TEMPERATURES. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS 2000 J/KG SBCAPE IN AXIS FROM ERN CASCADES OF CNTRL OR NEWD INTO CNTRL ID...WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8.0 C/KM OR GREATER. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30 KTS WILL SUPPORT LARGE HAIL WITH MOST VIGOROUS TSTMS. WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER ALSO SUGGESTS A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT ISOLD NATURE OF ACTIVITY WILL PRECLUDE WW ISSUANCE. ..GUYER.. 06/03/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TFX...PIH...MSO...BOI...LKN...OTX...PDT...REV...MFR... 44292150 45921910 47271552 45231328 43471250 42231419 42041766 41942015 43722174 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 4 01:03:00 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 03 Jun 2004 20:03:00 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406040102.i5412n824494@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 040101 SWOMCD SPC MCD 040101 NMZ000-TXZ000-040230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1078 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0801 PM CDT THU JUN 03 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 040101Z - 040230Z ...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SRN NM... MOIST SELY FLOW HAS FORCED HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL NM. STRONG HEATING HAS AIDED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THIS REGION WHERE SCATTERED SUPERCELLS HAVE RECENTLY EVOLVED FROM TORRANCE COUNTY TO DONA ANA COUNTY. NWLY DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS SUPPORT STORM ROTATION AND ORGANIZATION AS THIS ACTIVITY SPREADS SEWD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ONE NEGATIVE FOR LONG-LIVED MCS EVOLUTION IS THE WEAKER INSTABILITY LOCATED ACROSS SERN NM. IN THE SHORT TERM LARGE HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS CONVECTION UNTIL DIURNAL COOLING DAMPENS UPDRAFT STRENGTH. ..DARROW.. 06/04/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ... 31830733 34630636 34180461 32020501 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 4 09:18:47 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 04 Jun 2004 04:18:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406040918.i549IS807198@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 040916 SWOMCD SPC MCD 040915 OKZ000-KSZ000-041045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1079 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0415 AM CDT FRI JUN 04 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN KS SSEWD INTO CENTRAL OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 040915Z - 041045Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN KS SSEWD INTO NRN/CENTRAL OK...BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO SMALL TO WARRANT A WW. CLUSTER OF STORMS IS MOVING SEWD AT 25-30 KT THROUGH SWRN KS. DESPITE MUCAPES OF ONLY 500-1000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR AT 30 KT...WARM ADVECTION BETWEEN 700-850MB AND STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE LOWER 2-3 KM MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A COUPLE OF STORMS TO PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ISOLATED STORMS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED RECENTLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN/CENTRAL OK IN STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION. THESE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE SLOWLY IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY AHEAD OF STORMS MOVING SEWD OUT OF KS. HOWEVER...VERY WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE MORE THAN AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR TWO. ..IMY.. 06/04/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC... 37229986 38049927 38049824 36829735 35219720 34899835 35239915 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 4 15:51:10 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 04 Jun 2004 10:51:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406041550.i54Fov815143@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 041550 SWOMCD SPC MCD 041549 NCZ000-VAZ000-041745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1080 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1049 AM CDT FRI JUN 04 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN NC THROUGH SRN VA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 041549Z - 041745Z STORMS THAT HAVE PREVIOUSLY BEEN ELEVATED ARE BECOMING SURFACE BASED IN VICINITY OF WARM FRONT ACROSS NRN NC. THIS WOULD SUPPORT AN INCREASING THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE THREAT AREA IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT NWD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NRN NC AND INTO SRN VA INTO THE AFTERNOON. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. LATE THIS MORNING A WARM FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS NC FROM NEAR CAPE HATTERAS WSWWD TO SE OF CHARLOTTE. WIDESPREAD ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS BEEN DEVELOPING THROUGHOUT THE MORNING N OF THIS BOUNDARY. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS MIXING OUT S OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH RESULTING DESTABILIZATION ACROSS CNTRL AND SRN NC. THIS HIGHER THETA-E AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT NWD...AND CONTRIBUTE TO INTENSIFICATION OF STORMS DEVELOPING IN VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT. LOW LEVEL FLOW IS BACKED TO ELY NEAR AND N OF THIS BOUNDARY RESULTING IN 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY AROUND 200 M2/S2. RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S AND LOW TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE CONTRIBUTING TO LOW LCL HEIGHTS. THESE FACTORS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SOME THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY WITH STORMS DEVELOPING NEAR WARM FRONT. ..DIAL.. 06/04/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...RNK... 35157601 35237715 35207832 35308012 36937847 37097642 35937555 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 4 17:05:29 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 04 Jun 2004 12:05:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406041705.i54H5M803661@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 041704 SWOMCD SPC MCD 041703 FLZ000-042000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1081 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1203 PM CDT FRI JUN 04 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...THE FL PENINSULA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 041703Z - 042000Z THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ON GUST FRONT MOVING SWD THROUGH NRN FL AND ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FL PENINSULA WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL THIS AFTERNOON. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THE ATMOSPHERE IS DESTABILIZING ACROSS MOST OF THE FL PENINSULA WITH MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG. LINE OF STORMS EXTENDING FROM NEAR ST AUGUSTINE SWWD TO NEAR CEDAR KEY IS MOVING SEWD. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY ALONG THIS LINE AS THEY DEVELOP SEWD TOWARD STRONGER INSTABILITY. CONVERGENCE MAY BE ENHANCED WHERE THIS BOUNDARY INTERACTS WITH DEVELOPING SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES. OTHER STORMS WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES FARTHER SWD. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORT MOSTLY PULSE AND MULTICELL STORM MODES. WET MICROBURSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. ..DIAL.. 06/04/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX... 26388008 25778107 28268232 29468171 28798092 27558047 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 4 18:47:25 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 04 Jun 2004 13:47:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406041847.i54IlC807157@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 041846 SWOMCD SPC MCD 041846 NDZ000-SDZ000-042045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1082 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0146 PM CDT FRI JUN 04 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN/CENTRAL ND AND SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 041846Z - 042045Z THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE OVER SWRN ND INTO NWRN SD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT ANTICIPATED AFTER 20Z. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS AREA FOR A POSSIBLE WW. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES DEVELOPING TOWERING CU/CB IN FAR SWRN ND/NWRN SD ALONG AN AREA OF FOCUSED CONVERGENCE NEAR A LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND LEE TROUGH AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF CENTRAL MT. OBS AHEAD OF THIS CONVECTION WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND DEWPTS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO A NEARLY UNCAPPED MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE PER MODIFIED FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITH AROUND 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE AND LESS THAN 25 J/KG OF CINH. GIVEN LARGE SCALE FORCING OVERSPREADING THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND CONTINUED DIMINISHMENT OF CINH...AN INCREASING TREND IN COVERAGE AND STRENGTH OF CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED AS CURRENT ACTIVITY MOVES CLOSER TO SCENTRAL/ND/NCENTRAL SD ALONG LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY/SHEAR AXIS. RELATIVELY HIGH BASED NATURE OF CONVECTION SUGGESTS THAT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS...ALTHOUGH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES INDICATE THAT MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE. ..CROSBIE.. 06/04/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR... 44600140 44970272 45640348 46770334 47240300 47780196 47840047 47389921 46689882 44819884 44349946 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 4 19:16:14 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 04 Jun 2004 14:16:14 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406041916.i54JG0825911@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 041914 SWOMCD SPC MCD 041913 TXZ000-OKZ000-042115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1083 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0213 PM CDT FRI JUN 04 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN AND NCENTRAL TX...THE ERN TX PANHANDLE AND FAR WRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 041913Z - 042115Z ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TO THE SW OF THE SPS AREA...AND MAY DEVELOP AS FAR NWD AS THE ERN TX PANHANDLE BY 21Z. MODERATE MID LEVEL SHEAR ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE DEPARTING MCV OVER CENTRAL OK ALONG WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THAT ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE WIND/HAIL BY 21Z. A WW MAY BE NEEDED SHORTLY. LATEST VIS IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT TOWERING CU WAS DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF A OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NEAR CDS SEWD TO STEPHENS COUNTY. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS FOR THE AREA INDICATE BETWEEN 2000-2500 J/KG OF MLCAPE AND 30-35 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...AS A BELT OF 25-30 KT MID LEVEL NWLY FLOW EXTENDS OVER THE AREA ON THE SW SIDE OF AN MCV OVER CENTRAL OK. ALTHOUGH THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MARGINAL FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT..AT LEAST WELL ORGANIZED MULTICELL STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY. DEVELOPMENT IS MOST LIKELY TO THE SW OF SPS AHEAD OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH MCV OVER OK. NWLY FLOW WILL TAKE THESE STORMS INTO NCENTRAL TX BY LATE AFTERNOON. DESPITE STRONGER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER THE NERN TX PANHANDLE WHERE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/DRYLINE INTERSECTION WAS OCCURRING...LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE MCV OVER OK AND/OR WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES MAY BE TOO GREAT FOR INITIATION TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON. ..CROSBIE.. 06/04/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA... 32409917 33680039 35090069 36540036 36580006 36169946 34279898 32889710 32249735 32189817 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 4 19:30:18 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 04 Jun 2004 14:30:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406041930.i54JU4803085@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 041929 SWOMCD SPC MCD 041929 OKZ000-TXZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-WYZ000-042130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1084 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0229 PM CDT FRI JUN 04 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO...ERN WY...SW SD...WRN NEB...EXTREME WRN KS...NE NM AND THE WRN OK AND TX PANHANDLES CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 041929Z - 042130Z THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS THEY MOVE EWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND INTO THE MOIST AXIS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. ISOLATED DAMAGING AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THIS AREA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. HIGH BASED STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NM...CO AND WY. A LEE SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS E OF THIS ACTIVITY FROM EXTREME ERN WY THROUGH ERN CO AND NERN NM. EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY...SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL MAINTAIN AN AXIS OF RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE ATMOSPHERE HAS ALREADY BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE E OF THE LEE TROUGH. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING ARE SUPPORTING AN AXIS OF MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. SSELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL PERSIST E OF LEE TROUGH UNDERNEATH A BROAD FETCH OF MODEST NWLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO VEERING WIND PROFILES AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR FROM 35 TO 40 KT...SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. STORMS SHOULD GENERALLY BE HIGH BASED...BUT SHOULD INTENSIFY WITH INCREASING THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL AS THEY DEVELOP EWD INTO THE AXIS OF STRONGER INSTABILITY. ..DIAL.. 06/04/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...UNR...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...CYS...ABQ... 35480372 39430384 42920454 43940384 42710234 36390151 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 4 20:29:02 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 04 Jun 2004 15:29:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406042028.i54KSm809764@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 042026 SWOMCD SPC MCD 042026 TXZ000-NMZ000-042230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1085 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0326 PM CDT FRI JUN 04 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SCENTRAL/SERN NM AND FAR WRN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 042026Z - 042230Z THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL RIO GRANDE RIVER VALLEY MAY SEE AN INCREASED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AS THEY MOVE SSEWD INTO FAR SCENTRAL NM/FAR WRN TX OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRYLINE FROM SOUTH OF CQC TO THE SACRAMENTO MTNS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. RELATIVE WEAKLY ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT SHOULD PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE OVER SCENTRAL/WCENTRAL NM TO THE NORTH OF TCS...AS IT MOVES OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND INTO A MODERATE INSTABILITY AXIS OF MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG EXTENDING NWD FROM THE ELP AREA ALONG THE RIO GRANDE RIVER VALLEY. STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM THE SFC TO LCLS AROUND 650 MB ALONG WITH CONTINUED TO ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTIVE CLUSTER WILL ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS A COLD POOL CONTINUES TO MATURE OVER THE LOWER RIO GRANDE RIVER VALLEY. CLOVIS 88-D AND VIS IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT THE DRYLINE EXTENDING FROM GUADALUPE CO SWD INTO THE SACRAMENTO MTNS WAS SHARPENING...AND STRENGTHENING CONVERGENCE SHOULD AID IN ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT/INTENSIFICATION OVER SERN/ECENTRAL NM. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH SELY 15-20 KTS BELOW NWLY FLOW AOB 20 KTS. FARTHER SE...CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG DAVIS MTNS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MAINTAINED BY UPSLOPE SELY FLOW AND WEAK NWLY FLOW ALOFT. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY BEFORE IT DISSIPATES AROUND 00Z. ..CROSBIE.. 06/04/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...ABQ...EPZ... 31820688 32410765 33430777 34130734 34500623 34880503 34240325 32950303 31130318 30700482 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 4 20:58:18 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 04 Jun 2004 15:58:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406042058.i54Kw4828675@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 042051 SWOMCD SPC MCD 042051 NCZ000-VAZ000-042145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1086 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0351 PM CDT FRI JUN 04 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN NC THROUGH EXTREME SE VA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 394... VALID 042051Z - 042145Z THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED TO PERSIST ANOTHER 2-3 HOURS ACROSS MAINLY ERN NC. THOUGH THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES STILL REMAINS...PRIMARY THREAT APPEARS TO HAVE TRANSITIONED TO DAMAGING WIND...HAIL AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. ANOTHER WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED BUT CURRENT WW MAY BE EXTENDED LOCALLY FOR ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS. THIS AFTERNOON A SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS FROM NERN NC SWWD TO JUST SE OF CHARLOTTE. STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING IN VICINITY OF AND S OF THIS BOUNDARY. OVERALL...STORMS HAVE BECOME MORE LINEAR...BUT WITH SOME EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. MAIN THREAT FROM THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY HEAVY RAIN...ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. HOWEVER... THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO STILL EXISTS...MAINLY WITH STORMS DEVELOPING CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY FROM WAYNE AND GREENE COUNTIES NEWD THROUGH CURRITUCK COUNTY. ..DIAL.. 06/04/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM... 35337583 35127740 34497907 35297893 35807789 36617611  From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 4 22:09:25 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 04 Jun 2004 17:09:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406042209.i54M9B809819@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 042208 SWOMCD SPC MCD 042208 LAZ000-TXZ000-050015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1087 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0508 PM CDT FRI JUN 04 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX/SWRN LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 042208Z - 050015Z ISOLATED DAMAGING WET MICROBURSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH CONVECTION OVER SERN TX/SWRN LA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS IT MOVES SSEWD AROUND 5-10 KTS. ADDITIONALLY...SLOW MOVEMENT AND CONTINUED FOCUS FOR REDEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM TO THE NORTH OF CLL WILL AID IN A THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES AS WELL. VERY UNSTABLE AIR EXISTS OVER SERN TX/SWRN LA WITH MLCAPES FROM 3000-3500 J/KG. WEAKNESS IN MID LEVEL FLOW WILL LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL TO ISOLATED WET MICROBURSTS WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT. SLOW SSE STORM MOTIONS AROUND 5 KTS...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL CONTINUED BACKBUILDING OF CONVECTION NWWD INTO ECENTRAL TX AIDED BY AN MCV OVER ERN OK INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL RATES WILL BE FROM LEON CO SEWD INTO THE NRN HOU METRO AND BEAUMONT AREAS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. VERY HIGH PW/S WILL SUPPORT RAINFALL RATES FROM 2-3 IN/HR ALONG THIS CORRIDOR. ..CROSBIE.. 06/04/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD... 29569490 30339579 31179603 31529536 31029392 29739379 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 4 22:22:15 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 04 Jun 2004 17:22:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406042222.i54MM4817604@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 042221 SWOMCD SPC MCD 042220 NCZ000-SCZ000-050015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1088 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0520 PM CDT FRI JUN 04 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SC INTO ERN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 042220Z - 050015Z SEVERE THREAT PERSISTS...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE MARGINAL...AND NEW WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THE PRESENT TIME. MID/UPPER JET STREAK OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS...IN THE IMMEDIATE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD. STRONGEST SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS HAVE SHIFTED ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA INTO ADJACENT OFFSHORE WATERS...JUST AHEAD OF WEAK LOW NOW NEAR/EAST OF GREENVILLE NC. COLD FRONT WEST OF LOW IS BEGINNING TO MERGE INTO LEE SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING WEST SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE FLORENCE/COLUMBIA AREAS OF SOUTH CAROLINA. THIS BOUNDARY MAY BECOME FOCUS FOR FURTHER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...BEFORE MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1500 J/KG BEGINS TO COOL WITH LOSS OF HEATING. THOUGH SHEAR PROFILES ARE FAIRLY WEAK NEAR THERMAL LOW/TROUGH OVER CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA... THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT MAY BE SUPPORTIVE OF HAIL/GUSTY WINDS IN STRONGER CELLS BEFORE ENVIRONMENT BEGINS TO STABILIZE. OTHERWISE...BETTER SEVERE THREAT WILL PERSIST JUST TO THE EAST OF SURFACE LOW ACROSS COASTAL AND ADJACENT INLAND AREAS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA ANOTHER FEW HOURS. CLOSER PROXIMITY TO SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS JUST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST SUPPORTS CONTINUING POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH EVOLVING CONVECTIVE LINE. WITH LOWER 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS CONTRIBUTING TO FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT... LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ACROSS THIS REGION ALSO REMAIN MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS...WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE. ..KERR.. 06/04/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP... 35897724 36457685 35827556 34907569 33797785 33587904 33438069 34068217 34848185 34978016 34967882 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 4 22:36:34 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 04 Jun 2004 17:36:34 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406042236.i54MaL826808@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 042235 SWOMCD SPC MCD 042235 TXZ000-050000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1089 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0535 PM CDT FRI JUN 04 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NCENTRAL/NWRN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 395... VALID 042235Z - 050000Z GREATEST SEVERE THREAT FOR THE REMAINDER OF WW 395 EXPIRATION TIME /01Z/ APPEARS TO BE OVER THE SRN/WRN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA...FROM THE DFW AREA SWWD. AN ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF WW 395. WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR STORM GENERATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/COLD POOL INTERACTIONS TO ENHANCE UPDRAFT STRENGTH AND MAINTAIN SEVERE THREAT OVER MUCH OF THE SRN/WRN HALF OF WW 395 FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STABLE AIR EVIDENT OVER THE DFW METRO AREA AND NERN PORTIONS OF WW 395 WILL LIKELY LIMIT ANY SEVERE THREAT FOR THE REMAINDER OF WW 395 VALID TIME IN THESE AREAS. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN LIKELY TO THE SOUTH OF WW 395 OVER THE HILL COUNTRY ALONG SYNOPTIC FRONT WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND LIMITED CINH WILL EXIST. CELL MERGERS...SWD MOVEMENT AND POTENTIAL FOR COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT OVER SRN PORTIONS OF WW 395 MAY AID IN SOME DAMAGING WIND THREAT SOUTH OF WW 395 AND BEYOND 01Z. ..CROSBIE.. 06/04/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF... 30379981 32220174 32730162 34160050 33819807 32839727 31829584 30439621 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 4 23:05:29 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 04 Jun 2004 18:05:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406042305.i54N5G811238@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 042304 SWOMCD SPC MCD 042304 NDZ000-SDZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-050100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1090 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0604 PM CDT FRI JUN 04 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...HIGH PLAINS...TX PNHDL INTO S CNTRL NORTH DAKOTA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 396...397... VALID 042304Z - 050100Z CONTINUE WWS TIL EXPIRATION...ADDITIONAL WWS TO THE EAST MAY NOT BE NEEDED. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WHICH HAS DEVELOPED IN THE VICINITY OF LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE/LEE SURFACE TROUGH...CONTINUES TO PROGRESS THROUGH NARROW TONGUE OF MAXIMUM INSTABILITY ALONG/WEST OF SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS. MODERATE SHEAR AND CAPE RANGING FROM 1500 TO 3000 J/KG WILL SUPPORT CONTINUING SEVERE THREAT AT LEAST ANOTHER FEW HOURS. THOUGH FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH NOCTURNAL STRENGTHENING OF LOW-LEVEL JET PROVIDES SOME POTENTIAL FOR STORM INTENSIFICATION AS IT APPROACHES JET AXIS...THIS MAY BE OFFSET BY RELATIVE LOW MOISTURE CONTENT OF AIR MASS ACROSS THE PLAINS. FAIRLY RAPID COOLING OF BOUNDARY LAYER MAY OCCUR BY AROUND SUNSET...AND WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPEARING TO STABILIZE RAPIDLY EAST OF HIGH PLAINS THERMAL RIDGE...SEVERE THREAT MAY NOT CONTINUE MUCH BEYOND 02-03Z. ..KERR.. 06/04/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...LBF...DDC...UNR...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...CYS... 35680190 36050235 37240227 39320284 41120294 42490244 43780208 45590133 47080110 46829916 45079922 43550004 40750093 38710068 36880039 35790082 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 4 23:23:26 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 04 Jun 2004 18:23:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406042323.i54NNO821620@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 042322 SWOMCD SPC MCD 042322 TXZ000-NMZ000-050045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1091 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0622 PM CDT FRI JUN 04 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...TX PANHANDLE/FAR WRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 042322Z - 050045Z LINE OF STRONG-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING RAPIDLY OVER THE SRN PORTIONS OF WW 396 WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SEWD OUT OF WW 396 INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE TX PANHANDLE OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. A NEW WW IS BEING CONSIDERED OVER AREAS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF WW 396. RADAR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT A COLD POOL WAS INCREASING IN STRENGTH OVER THE NWRN TX PANHANDLE AND FAR NERN NM...WHERE 2 MB/HR RISES HAVE BEEN NOTED RECENTLY AT DHT. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WAS INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY ALONG THE GUST FRONT/DRYLINE MERGER. MODERATE INSTABILITY AXIS WITH MLCAPES FROM 2000-2500 J/KG EXISTED TO THE EAST OF A DRYLINE EXTENDING FROM PARMER CO IN THE SWRN TX PANHANDLE NEWD TO HANSFORD CO. CONVECTION TO THE EAST OF TCC SHOULD ALSO INCREASE AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS EAST OF THE DRYLINE. INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET TO AROUND 40 KTS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL AID IN SUSTAINING CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS GUST FRONT WHICH SHOULD AID IN CONVECTION MOVING SEWD OUT OF WW 396 OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THIS INTENSIFYING LINE WILL FAVOR A CONTINUED SEVERE THREAT SOUTH OF WW 396 FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. INCREASING DIURNAL CINH MAY LIMIT THE LONGEVITY OF A SEVERE THREAT BEYOND 02Z. ..CROSBIE.. 06/04/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ... 34470297 35390313 35700240 35730112 36270062 35930008 34590005 34410177 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 5 01:06:41 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 04 Jun 2004 20:06:41 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406050106.i5516R810147@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 050105 SWOMCD SPC MCD 050104 SDZ000-NDZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-050300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1092 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0804 PM CDT FRI JUN 04 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PLAINS...TX PNHDL INTO CNTRL/ERN ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 396...397... VALID 050104Z - 050300Z WWS WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 02Z. WITH ONSET OF STRONGER RADIATIONAL SURFACE COOLING DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...PRIMARY FORCING FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ALONG STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS. THOUGH ACTIVITY WILL BE BASED ABOVE DEEPENING INVERSION LAYER...EVAPORATIVE COOLING NEAR WEAKENING/DISSIPATING RAIN CORES MAY STILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG...GUSTY SURFACE WINDS FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO BEYOND WATCH EXPIRATION. AS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AWAY FROM STEEPER LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN...RISK OF LARGE HAIL SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. ..KERR.. 06/05/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...ICT...OUN...ABR...GID...BIS...LBF...DDC...UNR...GLD...AMA... 47280019 47779893 46869717 44839695 43409858 40959910 37829864 35889973 35750172 37220124 38370169 40470191 43540233 44970123 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 5 02:38:08 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 04 Jun 2004 21:38:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406050237.i552bs825495@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 050235 SWOMCD SPC MCD 050235 TXZ000-050430- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1093 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0935 PM CDT FRI JUN 04 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 399... VALID 050235Z - 050430Z DAMAGING WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE NEAR THE AUSTIN/TEMPLE AREAS WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HEAVY PRECIPITATION CORE PERSISTS TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST OF TEMPLE...SUPPORTED BY INTENSE UPDRAFTS IN ENVIRONMENT WITH MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG. WITH ONSET OF SURFACE COOLING...CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS INCREASING AND SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO SLOW WEAKENING TRENDS NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...AS CELL COLLAPSES/WEAKENS...POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED DOWNBURST WITH DAMAGING SURFACE GUSTS STILL APPEARS TO EXIST THROUGH THE 03-04Z TIME FRAME. ..KERR.. 06/05/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT... 31459827 31419751 30919706 30529758 30759838 31249866 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 5 04:44:20 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 04 Jun 2004 23:44:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406050444.i554i5820181@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 050443 SWOMCD SPC MCD 050443 TXZ000-050645- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1094 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1143 PM CDT FRI JUN 04 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...W CNTRL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 050443Z - 050645Z STRONG GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES APPROACHING SEVERE LIMITS MAY PERSIST WITH CONVECTIVE SYSTEM SURGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. VIGOROUS MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM NOW PROGRESSING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE CHILDRESS/LUBBOCK AREAS HAS BEEN SUPPORTED BY WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH/MID-LEVEL JET STREAK DIGGING OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. WITH NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO MID/UPPER FLOW REGIME AIDING SOUTHWARD PROPAGATION OF CLUSTER INTO 30 TO 40 KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL...SYSTEM RELATIVE INFLOW APPEARS ON THE ORDER OF 60+ KT. VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS MAINTAINING INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT ON EASTERN PERIPHERY OF ELEVATED MIXED LAYER EMANATING FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND PLATEAU. MOST INTENSE ACTIVITY APPEARS LIKELY TO PROPAGATE SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT INTO AREAS NEAR/WEST OF ABILENE BY 07-08Z...AND THE SAN ANGELO AREA BY 09-10Z. NARROW TONGUE OF WARM/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AIR EXTENDS ACROSS THIS AREA...UNAFFECTED BY PRIOR CONVECTION...AND APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE AT LEAST ON THE ORDER OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. THOUGH BASE OF UPDRAFTS/LEVEL OF FREE CONVECTION IS LIKELY ABOVE DEEPENING INVERSION LAYER...THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT LIKELY WILL MAINTAIN FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE COLD POOL/ASSOCIATED PRESSURE PERTURBATION AND RISK OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS WHICH MAY APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS. ..KERR.. 06/05/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF... 33539935 32639879 31379897 30790010 31550143 32290177 33250168 33050058 33240022 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 5 16:05:43 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 05 Jun 2004 11:05:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406051605.i55G5Y829937@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 051604 SWOMCD SPC MCD 051603 FLZ000-GAZ000-051800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1095 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1103 AM CDT SAT JUN 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SERN GA THROUGH THE FL PENINSULA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 051603Z - 051800Z THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY INTO THE AFTERNOON. MULTICELL AND PULSE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION ACROSS MOST OF THE FL PENINSULA INTO SERN GA THIS AFTERNOON. THOUGH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE MODEST AND GENERALLY AOB 6.5 C/KM...HEATING OF THE VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. NUMEROUS BOUNDARIES EXIST TO SERVE AS FOCI FOR INITIATION INCLUDING A WEAK FRONT ACROSS SRN GA INTO NRN FL... SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...AND DEVELOPING SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARIES. WITH WEAK CAP IN PLACE...STORMS WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR SUGGESTS STORMS WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME ORGANIZING...EXCEPT POSSIBLY AS MULTICELL LINES ALONG SEA BREEZE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ..DIAL.. 06/05/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE... 29428133 26878022 25668053 26038146 27378240 28848236 30028366 31348153 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 5 16:47:14 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 05 Jun 2004 11:47:14 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406051646.i55Gkw820530@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 051646 SWOMCD SPC MCD 051645 LAZ000-TXZ000-051915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1096 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1145 AM CDT SAT JUN 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SE TX THROUGH SRN LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 051645Z - 051915Z SCATTERED STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. THIS AFTERNOON A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SRN LA WWD THROUGH SERN TX. THE ATMOSPHERE IN VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE. RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S IS IN PLACE BELOW MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM 6.5 TO 7 C/KM. SURFACE HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 3000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN MCV HAVE BEEN MORE PERSISTENT IN SE TX...SO THE STRONGER DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS SRN LA. THE MCV OVER SERN TX SHOULD CONTINUE SLOWLY E INTO SRN LA THIS AFTERNOON. ZONE OF ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT SHOULD PROMOTE AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORMS AS DESTABILIZATION OCCURS. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE GENERALLY MODEST AND SUPPORTIVE OF MOSTLY MULTICELLS. HOWEVER...THE VWP DATA FROM HOUSTON SHOW SHEAR PROFILES AT LEAST MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. ..DIAL.. 06/05/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...HGX... 29799366 29209538 29749559 30419496 31039432 30589225 30239006 29429008 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 5 17:58:33 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 05 Jun 2004 12:58:33 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406051758.i55HwH825642@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 051757 SWOMCD SPC MCD 051756 MNZ000-SDZ000-051930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1097 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1256 PM CDT SAT JUN 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SD AND WRN/CENTRAL MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 051756Z - 051930Z ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP OVER ERN SD EWD INTO CENTRAL MN AROUND 20Z. AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT APPEARS UNCERTAIN...THUS WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS AREA FOR A POSSIBLE WW. VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT A SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF HON...WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SWWD FROM THE LOW TO NEAR WINNER...AND ENEWD FROM THE LOW TO NEAR STC. A SURFACE COLD FRONT NORTH OF THIS LOW ACROSS SERN ND INTO NRN MN WAS MOVING SWD AT AROUND 20 KTS. CONVERGENCE ALONG BOTH OF THESE FEATURES ALONE ARE RELATIVELY WEAK. HOWEVER... AS THE FRONT CATCHES UP TO THE LOW/TROUGH...INCREASING CONVERGENCE WILL OCCUR. ALTHOUGH WAVE PATTERNS NOTED IN THE LOW CLOUDS ARE INDICATIVE OF MODEST CINH...CONTINUED HEATING INTO THE LOWER 80S WITH DEWPTS REMAINING IN THE LOWER 60S SHOULD AID IN LITTLE TO NO CINH ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER ECENTRAL SD INTO CENTRAL MN BY 20Z. MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES FROM 1500-2000 J/KG AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF A SEWD MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL OFFSET RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR /25 KTS/ TO ALLOW FOR AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT. ..CROSBIE.. 06/05/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR... 43509848 44359910 44999906 45369846 45839626 45829494 45759419 45549417 44659455 43539679 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 5 19:24:25 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 05 Jun 2004 14:24:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406051924.i55JO9803997@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 051922 SWOMCD SPC MCD 051921 MTZ000-IDZ000-052115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1098 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0221 PM CDT SAT JUN 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN/CENTRAL MT...NRN ID CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 051921Z - 052115Z ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY 20Z OVER NRN ID INTO FAR WRN MT. OVERALL THREAT APPEARS TO BE LIMITED AT FIRST...UNTIL CONVECTION INTERACTS WITH GREATER INSTABILITY OVER THE FRONT RANGE/CENTRAL MT. A WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED BEFORE 21Z. CONVECTION WAS BEGINNING TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY OVER THE BITTEROOT MTNS OF FAR NRN ID WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND STRONG DYNAMIC LIFT WAS OVERSPREADING THE AREA. PRESENT INDICATIONS FROM OBSERVATIONS IN FAR WRN MT/NRN ID INDICATE BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG OF MUCAPE. COMBINED WITH 50 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR ALONG MID LEVEL JET AXIS...CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA. OTHER CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NRN SAWTOOTH/CLEARWATER MTNS ALONG THE MID/UPPER JET AXIS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS WELL...AND AGAIN HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL. THE GREATEST INSTABILITY EXISTED OVER NCENTRAL/NWRN MT...WHERE AXIS OF LOW TO MID 50S DEWPTS MUCAPES FROM 1500-2500 J/KG RESIDED FROM JUST EAST OF MSO TOWARDS HVR. AS CONVECTION MOVES EAST OF THE BITTEROOT CHAIN AND INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS ENCOUNTERING ELY UPSLOPE INFLOW AND GREATER INSTABILITY. AN ORGANIZED BROKEN LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS ANTICIPATED WITH LARGE HAIL LIKELY. DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BECOME AN INCREASINGLY GREATER THREAT AS CONVECTION MOVES EWD INTO CENTRAL MT GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE WIND FIELDS AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES RESIDING OVER THAT AREA. ..CROSBIE.. 06/05/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...PIH...MSO...BOI...OTX... 44461415 45231505 46551604 47501590 48901408 48931089 48970794 46110776  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 5 19:36:53 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 05 Jun 2004 14:36:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406051936.i55Jaa812695@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 051934 SWOMCD SPC MCD 051934 OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-052130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1099 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0234 PM CDT SAT JUN 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NE NM...SW KS THROUGH THE OK AND TX PANHANDLES. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 051934Z - 052130Z STORMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IN THIS AREA NEXT FEW HOURS. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. THIS AFTERNOON A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM EXTREME NERN NM THROUGH EXTREME SERN CO AND INTO SW KS. DESTABILIZATION IS OCCURRING S OF THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS THE OK AND TX PANHANDLES. SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IS MAINTAINING AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN UPPER 50S UNDERNEATH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. MLCAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH BASED STORMS DEVELOPING OVER SERN CO AND SWRN KS IN VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD INTENSIFY AS THEY DEVELOP SEWD INTO THE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP SEPARATELY ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLES WITHIN AN AREA OF ENHANCED CUMULUS ALONG WHAT APPEARS TO BE A WEAK BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTION. WIND PROFILES EXHIBIT VEERING FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH 6 KM...WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SRN TX PANHANDLE. ..DIAL.. 06/05/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...ABQ... 34040113 34180228 35240350 36160322 36970162 37840007 37419920 36689958 35599988 34710000  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 5 19:42:11 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 05 Jun 2004 14:42:11 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406051941.i55Jfs816088@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 051941 SWOMCD SPC MCD 051940 KSZ000-NEZ000-052115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1100 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0240 PM CDT SAT JUN 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SCENTRAL NEB/NCENTRAL KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 051940Z - 052115Z THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER NCENTRAL KS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BECOME SEVERE BEFORE 21Z. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF A SWD MOVING TROUGH OVER SCENTRAL NEB. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBILITY OF A WW BEFORE 21Z. LATEST VISIBLE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS INCIPIENT STORMS JUST NORTH OF THE HYS/RSL AREA. ADDITIONAL TOWERING CU WAS FORMING ALONG A SWD MOVING TROUGH ALONG I-80 OVER SCENTRAL NEB. CONVERGENCE IN THIS AREA REMAINS WEAK AND THUS FURTHER DEVELOPMENT INTO THUNDERSTORMS IS UNCERTAIN. THERMAL RIDGE/MOISTURE AXIS EXTENDING INTO THE AREA WAS SUPPORTING 1000-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE. DESPITE MARGINAL LOW-MID LEVEL WINDS/SHEAR WITH AREA PROFILERS INDICATING FROM 15 TO 20 KTS...CONCENTRATED AREA OF CONVERGENCE NEAR LOW CENTER OVER NCENTRAL KS ALONG WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE COVERAGE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS. LACK OF STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WINDS THIS EVENING SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A LONGER LIVED SEVERE MCS. ..CROSBIE.. 06/05/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD... 38799952 39259966 40020000 40419999 40659909 40559828 40219775 39319787 38689841 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 5 20:01:50 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 05 Jun 2004 15:01:50 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406052001.i55K1d826858@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 052000 SWOMCD SPC MCD 051959 MNZ000-NDZ000-052130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1101 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0259 PM CDT SAT JUN 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MN/FAR NERN ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 051959Z - 052130Z THUNDERSTORMS OVER SERN MANITOBA/NWRN ONTARIO ARE ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS THEY MOVE SWD AROUND 20 KTS INTO INSTABILITY AXIS OVER NRN MN/NERN ND. MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT ANTICIPATED SHOULD PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AHEAD OF A SWD MOVING FRONT INTO FAR NERN ND AND NRN MN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DESPITE INCREASING MID LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WITH 35-40 KTS AT 500 MB OVERSPREADING THE AREA...MARGINAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY /MLCAPES FROM 500-1000 J/KG/ AND ONLY MODEST CONVERGENCE SHOULD LIMIT A WELL ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL AID IN THE POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ..CROSBIE.. 06/05/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF... 47629727 48039755 48979763 49039568 48369232 47609256 47629626 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 5 20:30:49 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 05 Jun 2004 15:30:49 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406052030.i55KUg810084@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 052028 SWOMCD SPC MCD 052028 TXZ000-052230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1102 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0328 PM CDT SAT JUN 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...W TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 052028Z - 052230Z AREA OF W TX BETWEEN LUBBOCK AND MIDLAND IS BEING MONITORED FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS ONCE STORMS DEVELOP. A WW WILL BE NEEDED ONCE INITIATION BECOMES MORE CERTAIN. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A N-S LINE OF CUMULUS DEVELOPING BETWEEN LUBBOCK AND MIDLAND ON A SUBTLE BOUNDARY. TRENDS IN SURFACE DATA SHOW DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE 40S AND FLOW VEERING TO WLY AS STRONG SURFACE HEATING ENCOURAGES DEEP MIXING ALONG THE NM/TX BORDER. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT SHARPENING OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED BOUNDARY AS IT TAKES ON DRYLINE CHARACTERISTICS. THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS QUITE UNSTABLE ALONG AND E OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH MLCAPE AROUND 2500 J/KG. VERTICAL WIND PROFILES EXHIBIT SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERING TO NWLY AT 6 KM WITH DEEP SHEAR GENERALLY LIMITED TO AOB 30 KT DUE TO WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW. WITH VERTICAL SHEAR AT LEAST MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WOULD SUPPORT A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SHARPENING BOUNDARY COULD SUPPORT CONVECTIVE INITIATION WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS THE CAP CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. ..DIAL.. 06/05/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF... 33910022 32660010 31620061 31190105 31330185 32990198 33980203  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 5 20:49:57 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 05 Jun 2004 15:49:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406052049.i55Kne820487@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 052047 SWOMCD SPC MCD 052047 WIZ000-MNZ000-052245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1103 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0347 PM CDT SAT JUN 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ECENTRAL MN AND NWRN WI CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 052047Z - 052245Z ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR PRIMARILY SMALL HAIL AHEAD OF A SWD MOVING FRONT OVER ECENTRAL MN INCLUDING THE MSP METRO AREA. THE ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL THREAT SHOULD SLOWLY DEVELOP EWD INTO NWRN WI OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ADDITIONAL STRONG TO ISO SVR THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED NORTH OF THE ALEXANDRIA AREA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY OVER ECENTRAL MN ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A THERMAL RIDGE/MOISTURE AXIS EXTENDING NEWD FROM WCENTRAL MN AND AHEAD OF A SWD MOVING FRONT. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT REMAINS POSSIBLE ALONG A LEADING TROUGH AXIS FROM WRIGHT COUNTY MN EWD INTO POLK COUNTY WI AS 25-30 KT LOW LEVEL SSWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IMPINGES ON THIS BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN MODEST AT BEST OVER THE AREA...WITH MLCAPES FROM 500-1000 J/KG. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND GRADUALLY INCREASING MID LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF A DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NRN MN/ND WILL AID IN SOME UPDRAFT ROTATION WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. ..CROSBIE.. 06/05/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX... 44839347 45439441 46079430 46159284 46049179 45729136 45179104  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 5 21:16:55 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 05 Jun 2004 16:16:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406052116.i55LGd801462@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 052114 SWOMCD SPC MCD 052114 TXZ000-052315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1104 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0414 PM CDT SAT JUN 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SCENTRAL/SERN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 052114Z - 052315Z ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AN MCV AND ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM SCENTRAL/SERN TX OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED BUT ISOLATED NATURE OF A SEVERE THREAT MAY BE INSUFFICIENT FOR A WW. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES A NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE HOU METRO AREA WWD TO JUST NORTH OF SAT. HIGH INSTABILITY EXISTS TO THE SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH MLCAPES AROUND 3000 J/KG. MODEST MID LEVEL 25 KT NWLY WIND FIELDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF TWO MCVS...ONE OVER SERN TX AND THE OTHER OVER THE HILL COUNTRY. FORCING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE HILL COUNTY MCV MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. ..CROSBIE.. 06/05/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX... 28319667 28609834 29529997 30009940 29949866 29779696 29569454 29239479  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 5 21:52:23 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 05 Jun 2004 16:52:23 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406052152.i55Lq7818753@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 052151 SWOMCD SPC MCD 052150 MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-052345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1105 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0450 PM CDT SAT JUN 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN SD/SWRN MN...NWRN IA AND NERN/NCENTRAL NEB CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 052150Z - 052345Z CLUSTER OF STRONG-ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER ECENTRAL SD/WCENTRAL MN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SWD AROUND 20 KTS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG A TROUGH FROM SERN SD INTO NCENTRAL/NERN NEB. WEAK LOW LEVEL INFLOW AND ONLY MODEST MID LEVEL WINDS WILL LIKELY LIMIT UPDRAFT STRENGTH AND A GREATER SEVERE THREAT. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE OVER WCENTRAL MN/ECENTRAL SD AHEAD OF A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING SWD AROUND 15 KTS. MODERATE INSTABILITY AXIS WITH MLCAPES FROM 1500-2000 J/KG EXTENDED FROM SERN SD INTO SWRN MN. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS VERY MARGINAL FOR SUPERCELLS...25 KTS PER WOOD LAKE AND NELEIGH PROFILERS...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY/MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST THAT LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. OVER NERN NEB/NWRN IA...AIRMASS REMAINS UNDER INFLUENCE OF SUBSIDENCE BEHIND DEPARTING MCV AND THUS SEVERE THREAT IS UNLIKELY TO BE MAINTAINED VERY FAR SOUTH INTO THIS AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ..CROSBIE.. 06/05/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF... 42179751 42309909 42879947 43939899 44769820 45189594 45129505 44559476 43159495 41929511 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 5 22:02:02 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 05 Jun 2004 17:02:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406052201.i55M1k822811@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 052200 SWOMCD SPC MCD 052200 ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-052300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1106 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0500 PM CDT SAT JUN 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEASTERN TX...SWRN AR AND SERN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 052200Z - 052300Z ...THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN NUMBER ACROSS NERN TX INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND POSSIBLY SPREAD INTO SERN OK AND SWRN AR. AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. VSBY SATELLITE SHOWS STRONG ROTATION AND MID LEVEL CIRCULATION LOCATED NEAR ACT. STORMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOP TO THE NORTHEAST OF THIS FEATURE FROM 40 N OF DAL TO 40 NW TYR. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ONLY AROUND 25 KT...SURFACE DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 ARE RESULTING IN MLCAPES NEAR 2000 J/KG. IF STORMS MOVE NEWD INTO SWRN AR AND SERN OK...STORMS MAY NOT BE AS INTENSE AS CLOUDS HAVE HELD DOWN HEATING/INSTABILITY AND ONLY A COUPLE OF ISOLATED STORMS WOULD BE EXPECTED. HOWEVER...IF STORMS DO DEVELOP SWD WITHIN CLEAR SLOT FROM TYR SWD TOWARD CLL/LFK...THREAT FOR MORE THAN ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE. ..IMY.. 06/05/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...OUN... 31349653 32649668 33689648 34309562 34299486 34189390 31819410 31209497 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 5 22:49:46 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 05 Jun 2004 17:49:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406052249.i55MnT813292@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 052248 SWOMCD SPC MCD 052248 KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-060015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1107 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0548 PM CDT SAT JUN 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM...OK AND TX PANHANDLES...NWRN OK AND PORTIONS OF KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 400...401... VALID 052248Z - 060015Z SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING/MOVING SEWD THROUGH WW/S 400 AND 401. GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS EXTENDS FROM NEAR TCC TO NEAR GAG TO NEAR HUT. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED TO NEAR 90 DEGREES SOUTH OF THE STORM CLUSTERS AND MLCAPES ARE NOW BETWEEN 2000 TO 3000 J/KG. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST SWWD INTO NWRN KS/SERN CO. THIS FEATURE SHOULD HELP TO GENERATE STRONG/SEVERE STORMS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE MID LEVEL FLOW IS ONLY AROUND 20-25 KT...THE STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND OCCASIONAL DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER...THE STORM OUTFLOWS ARE LIKELY TO CONGEAL DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...WITH AN INCREASING WIND THREAT. ..IMY.. 06/05/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...ABQ... 35620382 36630294 37180120 38129978 38749830 37969749 36709894 35310296 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 6 00:36:28 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 05 Jun 2004 19:36:28 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406060036.i560aH828721@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 060035 SWOMCD SPC MCD 060035 MTZ000-060230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1108 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0735 PM CDT SAT JUN 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NRN/WRN AND CENTRAL MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 402... VALID 060035Z - 060230Z BROKEN LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD AROUND 40 KTS ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF WW 402 THROUGH 03Z. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL MAINTAIN DAMAGING WINDS AS THE PRIMARY THREAT. 00Z SOUNDING FROM GREAT FALLS INDICATES NEAR DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES THROUGH 600 MB...WITH AROUND 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE ABOVE THIS DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER. NEWD MOTION AROUND 40 KTS WITH THE LINE WILL CARRY THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SEVERE THREAT INTO THE ERN PORTION OF WW 402...ERN FERGUS/BLAINE COUNTIES...BY AROUND 03Z. DESPITE DIURNAL INCREASE IN CINH EXPECTED OVER AREAS DOWNSTREAM OF WW 304...A 60 KT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX SAMPLED BY THE MSO VWP SUPPORTING THIS LINE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A DEVELOPING COLD POOL MAY SUPPORT A SEVERE THREAT INTO NERN MT AFTER 03Z. ADDITIONAL NEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT REMAINS POSSIBLE ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE VICINITY OF MSO IN THE WRN PORTIONS OF WW 402...AS AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG SHEAR REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THIS AREA. ..CROSBIE.. 06/06/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...TFX...MSO... 46011287 49011363 48990979 45990938 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 6 00:50:12 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 05 Jun 2004 19:50:12 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406060049.i560nt802298@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 060049 SWOMCD SPC MCD 060048 KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-060145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1109 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0748 PM CDT SAT JUN 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM...OK AND TX PANHANDLES...NWRN OK AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 400...401... VALID 060048Z - 060145Z STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE AREAS WHERE THE SEVERE THREAT IS THE GREATEST IS BETWEEN TCC AND AMA...FROM 40 WEST OF GAG TO 40 E OF GAG...AND BETWEEN ICT AND DDC. THESE CLUSTERS OF STORMS ARE MOVING SWD AT 25 KT AND OUTFLOWS HAVE CONSOLIDATED WITH WIND DAMAGE AND SOME HAIL EXPECTED. EVENING SOUNDING AT AMA SHOWED PLENTY OF INSTABILITY...MUCAPES NEAR 2300 J/KG...DUE TO THE STEEP LAPSE RATES. ALTHOUGH THE MID LEVEL FLOW IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG IN THIS AREA...A WW MAY NEED TO BE REISSUED AT 02Z FOR PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. THE WIND THREAT APPEARS TO BE INCREASING WITH THOSE STORMS IN THE EXTREME NERN TX PANHANDLE/NWRN OK WHERE A COLD POOL HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP. GIVEN THE NWLY FLOW ALOFT AND STRONGER INSTABILITY LOCATED ACROSS THE SRN TX PANHANDLE...STORMS SHOULD MOVE MOSTLY SWD. OTHER INTENSE STORMS REMAIN BETWEEN DDC AND ICT AND THESE STORMS HAVE REMAINED CELLULAR...SO LARGE HAIL IS STILL THE MAIN THREAT. CURRENT MOTION WOULD PLACE THESE STORMS NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER... NORTH OF END...AROUND 02Z. ..IMY.. 06/06/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...ABQ... 35620382 36630294 37180120 38129978 38749830 37969749 36709894 35310296 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 6 02:54:45 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 05 Jun 2004 21:54:45 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406060254.i562sS828090@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 060251 SWOMCD SPC MCD 060251 OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-060345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1110 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0951 PM CDT SAT JUN 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN TX PANHANDLE/NWRN OK AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 401... VALID 060251Z - 060345Z HAIL AND WIND THREAT CONTINUE ACROSS MAINLY NWRN OK AND EXTREME SRN KS. STORMS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY WEAKENING...AND A NEW WW MAY NOT BE NEEDED. AN MCV APPEARS TO HAVE DEVELOP ABOUT 40 SE OF GAG...RESULTING IN STORMS MOVING MORE SEWD THAN SWD. ALTHOUGH MODERATE INSTABILITY AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR CONTINUE...SLOW COOLING/STABILIZING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY INHIBIT THE STRONGER WINDS FROM REACHING THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...OK MESONET DATA HAS SHOWN WINDS BETWEEN 40-50 MPH AND COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS...SO ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH ARE STILL POSSIBLE. OTHER STORMS ARE MOVING SWD OUT OF SOUTH CENTAL KS INTO NRN OK AND HAVE REMAINED CELLULAR WITH A THREAT FOR HAIL. THESE STORMS HAVE ALSO WEAKENED AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE AS BOUNDARY LAYER SLOWLY STABILIZES. ..IMY.. 06/06/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA... 35070005 35790085 36330130 36660013 37159871 37289787 37099730 35709783 35099871 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 6 03:11:49 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 05 Jun 2004 22:11:49 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406060311.i563BX803303@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 060310 SWOMCD SPC MCD 060310 MTZ000-060445- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1111 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1010 PM CDT SAT JUN 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 402... VALID 060310Z - 060445Z LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING SWD ACROSS BLAINE AND FERGUS COUNTIES WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE EWD OUT OF INSTABILITY AXIS. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE LIKELY THREAT ALTHOUGH ISOLATED CELL ON SRN END OF LINE OVER FERGUS COUNTY MAY HAVE SOME LOW-END SEVERE HAIL BEFORE DISSIPATING. FURTHER WEST...ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY REMAINS POSSIBLE BENEATH MID LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT AND WHERE POCKETS OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY EXIST. ISOLATED HAIL AND WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY BUT ANOTHER WW DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY. ..JEWELL.. 06/06/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...MSO... 49020836 46680814 46020933 45331259 45451294 46371368 46811428 48991476 49001161 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 6 06:41:32 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 06 Jun 2004 01:41:32 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406060641.i566fF831773@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 060640 SWOMCD SPC MCD 060640 TXZ000-060815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1112 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0140 AM CDT SUN JUN 06 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 403... VALID 060640Z - 060815Z ORGANIZED / MARGINALLY-SEVERE BOWING MCS CONTINUES MOVING SSEWD ACROSS CENTRAL TX AT 40 TO 45 KT. WITH THIS SYSTEM FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF THE WATCH IN THE 07-08Z TIME FRAME...NEW WW IS BEING CONSIDERED DOWNSTREAM OF WW 403. LATEST DATA INDICATED INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL TX SE OF FAIRLY-WELL ORGANIZED MCS MOVING ACROSS THIS REGION. WITHIN THE PAST HOUR...A 60 MPH GUST WAS REPORTED WITH THIS BOWING LINE...AND GIVEN DECENT STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW AND DEGREE OF ORGANIZATION ON THE MESOSCALE...EXPECT STORMS TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ATTM...EXPECT SEVERE THREAT TO REMAIN MARGINAL...AND GIVEN SOME DECREASE IN REFLECTIVITY WITHIN THE LINE NOTED OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR...SOME QUESTION EXISTS AS TO THE NEED FOR NEW WW. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. ..GOSS.. 06/06/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...MAF... 33579930 33339815 32509698 30619658 30019803 30249881 32450122 32599991 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 6 10:42:10 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 06 Jun 2004 05:42:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406061041.i56Afv822670@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 061040 SWOMCD SPC MCD 061040 MTZ000-061215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1113 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0540 AM CDT SUN JUN 06 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...N CENTRAL MT... CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 061040Z - 061215Z LOCALIZED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS EVOLVING ACROSS N CENTRAL MT ATTM...BUT NEW WW NOT EXPECTED ATTM BARRING MESOSCALE STORM / COLD POOL ORGANIZATION. LATEST DATA INDICATES AXIS OF MARGINAL /UNDER 1000 J/KG MOST-UNSTABLE CAPE/ INSTABILITY ACROSS CENTRAL MT ATTM...AHEAD OF 60-PLUS KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK NOW EJECTING EWD ACROSS WRN AND INTO CENTRAL MT. ALTHOUGH DEGREE OF INSTABILITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT...INCREASINGLY-STRONG LOW- TO MID-LEVEL WIND FIELD SUPPORTS STRONG / LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS. MINI BOW MOVING RAPIDLY ACROSS ERN CASCADE COUNTY ATTM -- WHICH MOVED 15 MILES S OF TFX /GREAT FALLS MT/ RADAR -- INDICATED 65-PLUS KT WIND JUST ABOVE THE GROUND FOR ABOUT A HALF HOUR -- INDICATIVE OF INCREASINGLY-STRONG WIND FIELD ACROSS THIS REGION. WITH ELY COMPONENT OF LOW-LEVEL JET STILL INDICATED ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF MT BENEATH WLY FLOW ALOFT...AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED / FORWARD-PROPAGATING BOW EXISTS. AGAIN...IT APPEARS ATTM THAT THIS THREAT SHOULD BE MODULATED BY LIMITED INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT A FEW ORGANIZED / SEVERE STORMS HAVE PERSISTED...THIS REGION BEARS WATCHING. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE AREA FOR SIGNS OF POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AT GREATER THAN STORM SCALE...WHICH COULD NECESSITATE WW ISSUANCE. ..GOSS.. 06/06/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX... 48121115 48351049 47990911 47160793 46480854 46390968 46211101 46701140 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 6 15:27:51 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 06 Jun 2004 10:27:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406061527.i56FRa801201@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 061524 SWOMCD SPC MCD 061523 FLZ000-061800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1114 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1023 AM CDT SUN JUN 06 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...THE FL PENINSULA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 061523Z - 061800Z THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES INTO THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED WET MICRO BURSTS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. WW NOT ANTICIPATED. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS FEW CLOUDS OVER THE FL PENINSULA...SUGGESTING STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON. MORNING RAOB DATA FROM MIAMI... TAMPA AND JACKSONVILLE ALREADY SHOW MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE WITH MUCAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG. MAXIMUM CAPE VALUES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD RANGE FROM 2500 TO 3000 J/KG. STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES INTO THE AFTERNOON. OTHER STORMS DEVELOPING OVER NRN FL ALONG A NE-SW ORIENTED BOUNDARY MAY ALSO INCREASE AS THEY MOVE EWD. VERTICAL WIND PROFILES ARE WEAK WITH A GENERAL WLY COMPONENT...SUGGESTING STORM MODE WILL AGAIN BE PULSE AND MULTICELL. ..DIAL.. 06/06/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX... 28388086 26548008 25398073 26818176 28068237 29648245 30448166  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 6 16:59:45 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 06 Jun 2004 11:59:45 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406061659.i56GxQ816470@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 061658 SWOMCD SPC MCD 061657 MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-061900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1115 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1157 AM CDT SUN JUN 06 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN THROUGH NE LA THROUGH SW MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 061657Z - 061900Z THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS PARTS OF LA THROUGH CNTRL/SRN MS INTO THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES PRESENCE OF A WEAK BOUNDARY FROM SE LA NWWD THROUGH E TX. WARM SECTOR S OF THIS BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE. AS SURFACE HEATING CONTINUES...MLCAPE SHOULD INCREASE TO BETWEEN 2500 AND 3000 J/KG ACROSS SRN LA. FARTHER NE...THE ATMOSPHERE IS ALSO DESTABILIZING ACROSS CNTRL AND SW MS IN A ZONE OF CLEARING E OF MCV CENTERED OVER SRN AR. WEAKER LAPSE RATES AND SLIGHTLY LESS MOISTURE IN THIS AREA WILL SUPPORT LESS INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE...STORMS SHOULD UNDERGO A GRADUAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. THOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR IS WEAK AND GENERALLY SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELL STORMS... THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF STORMS WILL MOST LIKELY BE IN ZONE OF STRONGER FORCING DOWNSTREAM OF MCV FROM NE LA THROUGH SRN MS. ..DIAL.. 06/06/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV... 29699215 29999356 31029366 31969173 32919067 32668952 31068986 29869095 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 6 18:11:21 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 06 Jun 2004 13:11:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406061811.i56IB8820235@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 061810 SWOMCD SPC MCD 061809 NDZ000-SDZ000-062045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1116 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0109 PM CDT SUN JUN 06 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 061809Z - 062045Z WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR MUCH OF WRN AND CENTRAL ND AROUND 20Z. VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT STRONG FORCING ON THE NOSE OF UPPER LEVEL JET WAS AIDING IN RAPID ELEVATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BASED AROUND 700 MB OVER FAR NWRN/NCENTRAL ND. ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED IN NATURE DUE TO THE COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER FARTHER EAST OVER NCENTRAL/NERN ND...THIS ACTIVITY MAY BEGIN TO POSE A THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS...SINCE CLOUD BEARING LAYER SHEAR FROM 30-35 KTS ABOVE 700 MB SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME UPDRAFT ROTATION. HOWEVER MARGINAL NATURE OF THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD PRECLUDE A WW ISSUANCE AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY. FARTHER WEST SURFACE BASED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR BY 21Z OVER WRN ND...AS HINTS OF CU ARE SHOWING UP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT IN NERN MT AT 18Z. STRONG PRESSURE FALLS/RISES NOTED ON RECENT SFC ANALYSES WILL MAINTAIN STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG LEE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES FROM FAR ERN MT INTO WRN ND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALTHOUGH CINH IS STILL AROUND 100 J/KG AT 18Z...TEMPERATURES ONLY NEED TO REACH THE MID 80S WHILE MAINTAINING DEWPTS IN THE LOWER-MID 50S TO REMOVE THIS CINH. THUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY IN THE 21-22Z TIME FRAME GIVEN CURRENT 18Z TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY TAKE LONGEST OVER SWRN/SCENTRAL ND THIS AFTERNOON...AS GREATER MID LEVEL CINH EXISTS SOUTH OF MID LEVEL JET AXIS. ..CROSBIE.. 06/06/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS... 45970333 47480382 48990333 48989808 48449744 45939883 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 6 19:08:22 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 06 Jun 2004 14:08:22 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406061908.i56J85818124@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 061907 SWOMCD SPC MCD 061907 TXZ000-OKZ000-062100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1117 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0207 PM CDT SUN JUN 06 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND N CNTRL TX THROUGH S CNTRL OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 061907Z - 062100Z CNTRL THROUGH N CNTRL TX INTO S CNTRL OK ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. THIS AFTERNOON AN MCV WAS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER NW TX NEAR WICHITA FALLS MOVING EWD. A BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THE MCV AND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NEAR GAINESVILLE SSWWD TO NEAR JUNCTION. DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS ZONE OF ASCENT...THE ATMOSPHERE IS DESTABILIZING FROM SRN OK THROUGH CNTRL TX WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.5 C/KM ABOVE A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. AS SURFACE HEATING CONTINUES...MAX MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION SHOULD INCREASE AS CAP WEAKENS AND AS ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THE MCV INTERCEPTS INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR DOWNSTREAM. LATEST VWP DATA SHOW MODEST WSWLY FLOW FROM 15 TO 25 KT BETWEEN 1 AND 6 KM AND RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS WIND PROFILE WILL SUPPORT MAINLY MULTICELL CONVECTION...BUT STORMS MAY HAVE A TENDENCY TO EVOLVE INTO LINE SEGMENTS OR CLUSTERS AS THEY MOVE EWD. ..DIAL.. 06/06/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...EWX... 30779843 31709775 32799734 34209769 34659718 34079560 32579554 30449767 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 6 19:32:33 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 06 Jun 2004 14:32:33 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406061932.i56JWD830939@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 061931 SWOMCD SPC MCD 061931 WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-SDZ000-062130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1118 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0231 PM CDT SUN JUN 06 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MN...CENTRAL WI/NERN IA AND ECENTRAL SD CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 061931Z - 062130Z ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR SERN MN/NERN IA INTO CENTRAL WI MAY POSE A THREAT FOR SMALL HAIL AS THEY MOVE EWD AROUND 15 KTS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE FARTHER WEST ALONG SLOWLY RETREATING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SCENTRAL/SWRN MN INTO FAR ECENTRAL SD. HOWEVER...WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES MAY SUPPRESS ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT DESPITE STRENGTHENING FRONTAL CIRCULATION IN THIS AREA AHEAD OF NRN PLAINS SHORTWAVE. LIMITED NATURE OF THE THREAT AND OR ISOLATED COVERAGE SHOULD PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW OVER THE AREA. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT AN AXIS OF AROUND 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE EXTENDS ALONG A SLOWLY NWD MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NEAR BROOKINGS SD ESEWD TO NEAR VOLK FIELD WI. LIGHT ELY FLOW ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THIS BOUNDARY ALONG WITH 20 KT WNWLY MID LEVEL FLOW MAY SUPPORT ENOUGH SHEAR FOR AN ISOLATED HAIL THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. MID LEVEL WARMING IN ADVANCE OF THE NRN PLAINS SHORTWAVE MAY SUPPRESS ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WEST OF SCENTRAL MN. HOWEVER...IF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAN DEVELOP OVER SWRN MN/ECENTRAL SD...STRONGER LOW TO MID LEVEL SHEAR AND SLIGHTLY GREATER INSTABILITY WOULD SUPPORT A SOMEWHAT LARGER HAIL AND DAMAGING THREAT. ..CROSBIE.. 06/06/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...ABR... 43469635 44119721 44509716 44629664 44489597 44189491 44049403 44039308 44129173 44309028 44238884 43898834 43498866 43318938 43189076 43179288 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 6 20:21:00 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 06 Jun 2004 15:21:00 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406062020.i56KKf821230@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 062018 SWOMCD SPC MCD 062018 SDZ000-NEZ000-062215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1119 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0318 PM CDT SUN JUN 06 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN SD AND THE NEB PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 062018Z - 062215Z ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS ALONG A LEE TROUGH FROM FAR WRN SD SWD INTO THE WRN NEB PANHANDLE. DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL FAVOR DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT. ISOLATED NATURE OF THREAT OVER THE AREA MAY PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW. DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER CU WAS INCREASING IN COVERAGE ALONG AND JUST BEHIND OF A DRYLINE THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR RAP SWD INTO THE FAR WRN NEB PANHANDLE. SEVERAL BULGES ON THE DRYLINE...ONE TO THE WEST OF BFF...AND ANOTHER TO THE SW OF RAP...ARE LIKELY LOCATIONS FOR INITIATION OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE AREA SUGGEST THAT AROUND 500-1000 J/KG EXIST ABOVE THE VERY DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW WILL AID IN A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT CAN BECOME LINEARLY ORGANIZED. OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE HAIL LOOKS VERY SMALL CONSIDERING THE DEPTH OF THE ABOVE FREEZING LAYER/HIGH BASED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION. ..CROSBIE.. 06/06/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS... 41110401 43000398 44890402 45790349 45880226 45590131 43060085 40990168  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 6 20:33:47 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 06 Jun 2004 15:33:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406062033.i56KXS829094@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 062030 SWOMCD SPC MCD 062029 OKZ000-KSZ000-062230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1120 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0329 PM CDT SUN JUN 06 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN OK THROUGH SRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 062029Z - 062230Z PARTS OF NRN OK INTO SRN KS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION. IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP...THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL WOULD EXIST. OVERALL THREAT APPEARS MARGINAL...BUT AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. THIS AFTERNOON A SURFACE BOUNDARY WAS OBSERVED MOVING NWWD THROUGH NRN OK. RICHER MOISTURE S OF THIS BOUNDARY IS ADVECTING NWWD...AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING IS PROMOTING MIXING AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LINE OF ENHANCED CUMULUS IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY. WV IMAGERY SUGGESTS SUBSIDENCE IS OCCURRING IN THE MID LEVELS AND FORECAST RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW FAIRLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND VERY DRY AIR IN THE 4-7 KM LAYER. AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOW 90S...CAP SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY WEAK TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...GIVEN ONLY MODEST LOW LEVEL FORCING AND PRESENCE OF SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED. VERTICAL SHEAR IS WEAK AND SUPPORTS PULSE OR MULTICELL CONVECTION. PRIMARY THREAT SHOULD BE ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS SINCE THE HAIL THREAT MAY BE LIMITED BY WARM THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES. ..DIAL.. 06/06/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC... 36349723 35649831 36509872 37539796 37589642 36969570  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 6 21:56:47 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 06 Jun 2004 16:56:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406062156.i56LuS806177@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 062155 SWOMCD SPC MCD 062155 ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-070030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1121 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0455 PM CDT SUN JUN 06 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LA/FAR SRN MS/SWRN AL CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 062155Z - 070030Z DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL CONTINUE OVER SERN LA/FAR SRN MS AND SWRN AL AS A LARGE LINEAR MCS INTERACTS WITH DEVELOPING CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE MCS...AND STORM MERGERS ENHANCE DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL OVER THE AREA. 21Z SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES A COLD POOL HAS DEVELOPED OVER SWRN MS/NERN LA WITH 2 MB MEASURED RISE AT MACOMB MS IN THE LAST HOUR. AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM OF THIS LINE REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES FROMM 1500-2000 J/KG. AS LINE MOVES SSEWD AROUND 30 KTS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...MERGING WITH ADDITIONAL ISOLATED CONVECTION AND OR REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THIS CONVECTION OVER THE NEW ORLEANS AREA AND OVER SWRN AL MAY LOCALLY ENHANCE UPDRAFT/DOWNDRAFTS WITH INCREASED DAMAGING WIND THREAT. SEVERE THREAT SHOULD SUBSIDE IN THE AREA AS LINE MOVES EITHER OFFSHORE OR DISSIPATES DUE TO LOSS OF HEATING IN THE AREA BY AROUND 01Z. ..CROSBIE.. 06/06/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH... 29169083 30229136 31039070 31778918 32258867 32098765 31278747 30398760 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 6 22:41:40 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 06 Jun 2004 17:41:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406062241.i56MfL827644@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 062240 SWOMCD SPC MCD 062239 OKZ000-TXZ000-070115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1122 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0539 PM CDT SUN JUN 06 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CENTRAL TX...SRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 062239Z - 070115Z CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER NRN TX WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY NWD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS INTO SCENTRAL/SERN OK. ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE DFW METRO AREA TOWARDS ACT. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS OVER THIS AREA. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SVR THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NEAR MAF EWD TO NEAR SJT. INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL AID IN NWD MOVEMENT OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON THE NORTH SIDE OF CONVECTIVE CLUSTER INTO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER SCENTRAL/SERN OK WHERE MLCAPES FROM 2000-2500 J/KG EXIST. MEANWHILE 35-40 KT LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPING OVER NRN/CENTRAL TX WILL AID IN THE POTENTIAL FOR REDEVELOPMENT/BACKBUILDING SOUTH OF THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE CLUSTER BACK INTO NCENTRAL TX. THIS WILL AID TRAINING OF ECHOES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL RATES OVER NCENTRAL TX/SCENTRAL OK GIVEN THE MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE. WARM MID LEVELS AND MULTICELLULAR NATURE OF CONVECTION GIVEN THE WEAK SHEAR OVER NRN TX/SRN OK AND BETWEEN MAF AND SJT WOULD LIMIT A PROLONGED/WELL ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT AND THUS A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ..CROSBIE.. 06/06/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...MAF... 31180134 31970234 32400213 32480125 32250057 32000030 32409960 33349899 34399857 34719789 34469657 34339571 33669579 32219663 31689724 31059928 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 6 22:53:36 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 06 Jun 2004 17:53:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406062253.i56MrH800595@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 062252 SWOMCD SPC MCD 062252 NDZ000-070015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1123 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0552 PM CDT SUN JUN 06 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CENTRAL ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 404... VALID 062252Z - 070015Z THREAT FOR SEVERE HAIL/WIND IS INCREASING ACROSS THE WRN PORTIONS OF WW 404. A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED IN WRN ND ABOUT 40 W P24. THESE STORMS ARE LOCATED ALONG A COLD FRONT MOVING EWD THROUGH FAR WRN ND. MORE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT HOUR FROM 50 NORTH TO 60 SOUTH OF DIK AS CONVERGENCE STRENGTHENS ALONG COLD FRONT. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MLCAPES NEAR 2000 J/KG ARE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH SEVERE HAIL/WINDS. THE RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AND HIGH CLOUD BASES ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES...BUT THE STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR MIGHT SUPPORT A BRIEF TORNADO WITH ONE OR TWO STORMS. ..IMY.. 06/06/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BIS... 46140389 47410350 48830334 48870259 48380133 47720136 46060325 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 7 00:14:31 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 06 Jun 2004 19:14:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406070014.i570EC804386@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 070013 SWOMCD SPC MCD 070012 NDZ000-070145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1124 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0712 PM CDT SUN JUN 06 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CENTRAL ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 404... VALID 070012Z - 070145Z SEVERE THREAT WITHIN WW IS GREATEST FROM 40 NW MOT TO 45 SE MOT. ALSO NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF NERN ND WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS THESE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN STRONG FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. THREE SUPERCELLS WERE LOCATED IN NWRN ND FROM NW-SE OF MOT. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN INTENSE AS THEY MOVE NEWD AT 25 KT. STORMS WILL INTERSECT WARM FRONT DURING THE NEXT HOUR SO AND THE POSSIBILITY OF WEAK BRIEF TORNADO IS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...THE SHEAR/INSTABILITY AND DRY BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGESTS THAT LARGE HAIL AND OCCASIONAL WIND DAMAGE SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT. OTHER ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE LOCATED ACROSS WRN ND ALONG AN EWD MOVING COLD FRONT. THESE STORMS SHOULD SLOWLY INTENSIFY AS THEY MOVE EWD INTO A MORE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. ..IMY.. 06/07/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BIS... 47730171 48190199 48890176 48740143 48440105 48100081 47700089 47670137 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 7 01:12:08 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 06 Jun 2004 20:12:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406070111.i571Bn829711@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 070111 SWOMCD SPC MCD 070110 NDZ000-070215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1125 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0810 PM CDT SUN JUN 06 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 404... VALID 070110Z - 070215Z TORNADO THREAT NEAR MOT SHOULD DIMINISH WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR AS TWO SUPERCELLS MOVE EWD TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE WARM FRONT. NEW WW WILL BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF NERN ND AND EXTREME NWRN MN AS SUPERCELLS BECOME ELEVATED AND POSE A HAIL AND WIND THREAT WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ..IMY.. 06/07/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BIS... 47730075 47780138 48130182 48360164 48280137 48090087 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 7 03:14:43 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 06 Jun 2004 22:14:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406070314.i573EO819994@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 070312 SWOMCD SPC MCD 070312 NDZ000-070415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1126 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1012 PM CDT SUN JUN 06 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 405... VALID 070312Z - 070415Z INTENSE STORM WITH STRONG ROTATION IS LOCATED ABOUT 35 WSW DVL MOVING EWD AT 30 KT. STORM APPEARS TO BE ELEVATED AND EAST OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT THAT EXTENDED FROM 50 NW OF MOT TO 60 S OF FAR. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SMALL TORNADO POTENTIAL WITH THIS STORM...THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS SUGGESTS THAT VERY LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE ARE THE MAIN THREATS. OTHER LESS INTENSE STORMS WERE LOCATED IN NRN ND FROM WEST OF MOT TO WEST OF DVL. THESE STORMS ARE ALSO ELEVATED...WITH SEVERE HAIL LIKELY. ..IMY.. 06/07/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... 47869997 48179975 48179908 48169841 47649809 47619892 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 7 04:18:41 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 06 Jun 2004 23:18:41 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406070418.i574IM819790@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 070417 SWOMCD SPC MCD 070417 OKZ000-TXZ000-070545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1127 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1117 PM CDT SUN JUN 06 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN TX AND EXTREME SRN OK CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 070417Z - 070545Z RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN TX THROUGH 06Z/07Z...WITH AREA EXPANDING SLOWLY SEWD DURING THIS PERIOD. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE SPREADING INTO THE AREA FROM NEAR SEP TO NEAR DAL. WARM CORE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION WAS EVIDENT IN RADAR IMAGERY ABOUT 40 NNW OF DAL AND WAS NEARLY STATIONARY. EVENING SOUNDING AT DFW WAS VERY MOIST WITH PW VALUES NEAR 1.75 INCHES. LAPSE RATES NEAR 7C/KM DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S WERE RESULTING IN PLENTY OF INSTABILITY/MLCAPES NEAR 2500 J/KG/CONTINUE TO FEED TO STORMS. CONVECTIVE BAND FEEDING INTO THIS LOW EXTENDED FROM EAST OF GAINESVILLE/DENTON SWWD INTO TARRANT AND PARKER COUNTIES. SOME MID LEVEL DRYING APPEARS TO HAVE WORKED ONTO THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE LOW AND HAD PUSHED CONVECTIVE BAND SEWD AT 10 KT. ALSO... STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN A SLOW SEWD PROPAGATION. THIS WILL SPREAD HEAVIEST RAINS SEWD FROM NEAR SEP TO DAL AND THEN NEWD TO SE OF DUA. SEVERAL HOURS OF PCPN HAS RESULTED IN A COLD POOL TO DEVELOP...SO ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE/HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE AND WITHIN THE STRONGER CORES. HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO LIKELY UNDER THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION NEAR THE RED RIVER AS CONVERGENCE CONTINUES TO GENERATE NEW STORMS/UPDRAFTS. ..IMY.. 06/07/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN... 33979649 33509612 32589614 32289704 32209798 32549813 32759732 33029660 33289634 33509707 33629772 33969760 34119696 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 7 04:37:55 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 06 Jun 2004 23:37:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406070437.i574bZ829968@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 070436 SWOMCD SPC MCD 070436 NDZ000-070600- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1128 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1136 PM CDT SUN JUN 06 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 405... VALID 070436Z - 070600Z HAIL THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS OR BIGGER ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS FROM EAST OF MOT TO WEST OF GFK. SEVERAL INTENSE SUPERCELLS CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD ACROSS NRN ND AT 30 KT. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR...MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE FOR THESE SUPERCELLS TO PRODUCE VERY LARGE HAIL. A WIND THREAT ALSO EXISTS...THOUGH THE UPDRAFT BASES ARE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED AND A COOL BOUNDARY LAYER MAY INHIBIT THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS FROM REACHING THE SURFACE. ..IMY.. 06/07/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... 47659835 47760017 47930101 48620076 48789960 48569756 48049712 47639751 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 7 06:34:53 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 07 Jun 2004 01:34:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406070634.i576YX820664@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 070633 SWOMCD SPC MCD 070633 MNZ000-NDZ000-070800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1129 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0133 AM CDT MON JUN 07 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...N CENTRAL AND NERN ND / NWRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 405... VALID 070633Z - 070800Z STRONG / SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS NERN ND INTO NWRN MN. ALTHOUGH SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF WW...EWD EXTENT OF THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WARM FRONT REMAINING OVER SERN ND ATTM...WITH GREATEST INSTABILITY PERSISTING ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE. INSTABILITY DECREASES WITH EWD EXTENT ACROSS ERN ND...WITH MUCH COOLER / MORE STABLE AIRMASS INDICATED ACROSS NWRN MN. STORMS SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY ELEVATED AND DECREASE IN INTENSITY AS THEY SPREAD EWD INTO NWRN MN / OUT OF WW. MEANWHILE...ALTHOUGH SEVERE THREAT -- MAINLY IN THE FORM OF HAIL -- WILL LIKELY PERSIST LOCALLY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...IT APPEARS ATTM THAT NEW WW WILL LIKELY NOT BE REQUIRED ACROSS NERN ND BEYOND THE 07/08Z EXPIRATION OF WW 405. ..GOSS.. 06/07/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... 48950032 49079621 47129613 47219838 47340026 47640144 48940154 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 7 16:54:06 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 07 Jun 2004 11:54:06 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406071653.i57Grj826866@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 071653 SWOMCD SPC MCD 071652 NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-071915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1130 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1152 AM CDT MON JUN 07 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN FL...ERN AL....GA...SRN SC...SERN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 071652Z - 071915Z MULTICELL CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AND FL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WHILE ACTIVITY WILL GENERALLY BE POORLY ORGANIZED...ANTICIPATED STORM COVERAGE SUGGESTS A LOW PROBABILITY DAMAGING WIND HAZARD. NO WATCH IS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED BUT STORM EVOLUTION IN THIS REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. MOIST AIRMASS WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH SFC DEWPOINTS AROUND 70F. STRONGEST SFC HEATING PER VIS IMAGERY AND LATEST OBS WAS OCCURRING FROM SRN GA INTO CNTRL SC WHERE A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED. CONVECTION WAS DEVELOPING ALONG THIS TROUGH ACROSS GA...AS WELL AS ALONG THE GULF BREEZE OVER NRN FL...AND ON RESIDUAL BACKDOOR FRONT ACROSS SERN NC. VIS IMAGERY ALSO SUGGESTS A SMALL SCALE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORMS OVER GA...AND A LARGER SCALE UPSTREAM IMPULSE OVER NRN AL. WHILE DEEP SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MARGINAL TO SUPPORT MORE ORGANIZED TSTMS... ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL FORCING MECHANISMS COUPLED WITH MID LEVEL IMPULSES AND STRONG CAPE SHOULD SUPPORT INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD STORMS. BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS AND MODEST THETAE LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN A FEW INTENSE CELLS ACCOMPANIED BY DAMAGING MICROBURST WINDS. ..CARBIN.. 06/07/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...TBW...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX... 28988246 30918499 31658591 32828633 33988511 33848204 34717841 34337776 33937866 32408090 31388178 29978156 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 7 19:16:38 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 07 Jun 2004 14:16:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406071916.i57JGH802374@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 071912 SWOMCD SPC MCD 071912 TXZ000-072145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1131 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0212 PM CDT MON JUN 07 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN/NERN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 071912Z - 072145Z SEVERAL THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS ACROSS E-CENTRAL TX ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE 190/30-35 KT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON. THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WITH STRONGEST CORES WILL CONTINUE. AT 19Z...STRONGEST THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER WAS LOCATED ACROSS LEON AND HOUSTON COUNTIES IN E-CENTRAL TX...MOVING STEADILY NWD IN UNIFORM DEEP-LAYER SLY FLOW REGIME OF 20-25 KT. MESOSCALE COLD POOLS ASSOCIATED WITH ACTIVITY HAVE RESULTED IN SOME FASTER PROPAGATIONAL MOTION...SUGGESTING A GREATER THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED THUNDERSTORMS WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY / 100MB MLCAPE VALUES 2000-2500 J/KG / AND NEGLIGIBLE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. MODERATE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND HIGH WBZ HEIGHTS BETWEEN 11-12 KFT SUGGEST HAIL THREAT WILL BE LIMITED TO STRONGEST CORES. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING BETWEEN VCT AND AUS MAY ALSO BECOME LOCALLY SEVERE...PARTICULARLY IF STORM CLUSTERS WITH ORGANIZED COLD POOLS CAN DEVELOP. ..BANACOS.. 06/07/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX... 33659595 33619493 33139424 31709401 30959410 30659508 28999703 29189821 32439678  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 7 20:46:54 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 07 Jun 2004 15:46:54 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406072046.i57KkZ831607@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 072042 SWOMCD SPC MCD 072042 KSZ000-NEZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-072245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1132 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0342 PM CDT MON JUN 07 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM...SERN CO...NWRN KS...SWRN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 072042Z - 072245Z ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS WITH SEVERE DOWNBURST WINDS PSBL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS FROM PARTS OF SERN NM AND SERN CO NEWD ACROSS NWRN KS AND INTO SWRN NEB. TSTMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AROUND SRR AND WEST OF ROW...AS WELL AS INVOF TAD IN SERN CO. VERY HOT AND WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS WAS CONTRIBUTING TO LARGE SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OVER 40F AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY FOR HIGH-BASED CONVECTION ROOTED BETWEEN 600-500MB. GIVEN VERY DRY AND DEEP SUB CLOUD LAYER AND RESULTANT HIGH DCAPE... A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE INTENSE DOWNDRAFTS. OUTFLOW FROM THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY MAY DRIFT EAST INTO GREATER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ON THE DRYLINE AND AID ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN A FEW MORE HOURS. INTENSE HEATING WAS ALSO ERODING THE CAP OVER NWRN KS AND SWRN NEB WHERE DRYLINE COLD FRONT TRIPLE POINT WILL EVOLVE OVR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LOW LEVEL FORCING NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT...COUPLED WITH HIGH INSTABILITY...WILL SUPPORT A POTENTIAL CONCENTRATION OF SEVERE STORMS IN THIS REGION AS WELL. ..CARBIN.. 06/07/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...AMA...MAF...PUB...ABQ...EPZ... 32720426 32580518 33480589 36150562 37320452 38340316 39210282 39970261 40560179 40620101 40210033 39660015 37160204 35220437  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 7 21:39:02 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 07 Jun 2004 16:39:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406072138.i57Lcg832570@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 072137 SWOMCD SPC MCD 072137 MNZ000-WIZ000-072330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1133 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0437 PM CDT MON JUN 07 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL INTO NE MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 072137Z - 072330Z SEVERE THREAT WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY AND RECENT RADAR LOOPS INDICATE SOME INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE PAST HOUR OR SO IN BAND ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. MODIFICATION OF CAP BY MID-LEVEL CONVECTION AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH...AND IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF DOWNSTREAM UPPER JET...AND WARM ADVECTION ALONG LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS APPEAR TO BE PROVIDING FORCING FOR THIS ACTIVITY. AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN STRONG CAP NEXT FEW HOURS... CONVECTION LIKELY WILL BECOME ROOTED IN MOIST AND VERY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG. INITIATION APPEARS MOST LIKELY JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF ONGOING STRONGER DEVELOPMENT...NEAR LAKE BREEZE...NEAR/NORTH OF DULUTH. SHEAR PROFILES ARE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADOES...POSSIBLE AN ISOLATED STRONG TORNADO. VERY LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY ACTIVITY. ..KERR.. 06/07/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF... 46109526 46979432 48449309 47949068 46769138 46079263 45879394 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 7 22:30:52 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 07 Jun 2004 17:30:52 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406072230.i57MUU829840@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 072229 SWOMCD SPC MCD 072229 NEZ000-080030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1134 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0529 PM CDT MON JUN 07 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 072229Z - 080030Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED. WW COULD BECOME NECESSARY. WITH HEATING TO AROUND 100F AT CREST OF HIGH PLAINS THERMAL RIDGE...CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN REACHED TO THE SOUTH/ SOUTHWEST OF AINSWORTH NEB. DEEPENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EVIDENT IN LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY ACROSS THIS REGION...PERHAPS AIDED BY FORCING ALONG SURFACE FRONT...WHICH MAY SUPPORT ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY NEXT FEW HOURS. THOUGH ACTIVITY IS HIGH BASED IN VERY DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY...LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS AND MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE THIS LAYER IS SUPPORTING CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG. THIS WILL SUPPORT VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS...WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS IN ENVIRONMENT WITH 30-50F TEMPERATURE DEW POINT SPREADS. LACK OF UPPER FORCING DOES NOT APPEAR PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...AND MAY LIMIT THREAT WITH ONGOING SCATTERED ACTIVITY FARTHER WEST AND SOUTH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. HOWEVER...ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA IS ON NOSE OF SOUTHERN PLAINS LOW-LEVEL JET. ENHANCED FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH NOCTURNAL STRENGTHENING OF THIS JET MAY MAINTAIN ACTIVITY BEYOND DARK...POSSIBLY AIDING EVOLUTION OF LARGER CONVECTIVE CLUSTER AND GREATER AREAL COVERAGE TO DAMAGING WIND THREAT. ..KERR.. 06/07/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF... 41770203 42330112 42590009 42599907 41729826 41209904 41310095 41410170 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 8 00:09:30 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 07 Jun 2004 19:09:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406080009.i58098819067@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 080008 SWOMCD SPC MCD 080008 WIZ000-MNZ000-080215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1135 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0708 PM CDT MON JUN 07 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...E CNTRL/NE MN...NW WI CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 406... VALID 080008Z - 080215Z SHORT TERM SEVERE THREAT HAS DIMINISHED...BUT INTENSE NEW CONVECTION STILL APPEARS POSSIBLE WITHIN NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS NEAR/SOUTH OF DULUTH INTO AREAS WEST OF MINNEAPOLIS. AGEOSTROPHIC FORCING IN ENTRANCE REGION OF HIGH-LEVEL JET APPEARS TO BE PRIMARY FORCING FOR INTENSE CELL NOW BEGINNING TO SHIFT EAST OF THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD. STRONGER UPPER FORCING WILL DEVELOP EASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL ONTARIO/LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING AS HIGH LEVEL JET PROGRESSES THROUGH CREST OF LARGE-SCALE GREAT LAKES RIDGE. COLD FRONT ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA NOW APPEARS LIKELY TO BECOME FOCUS FOR ANY NEW DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. TIMING FOR THIS IS STILL UNCERTAIN GIVEN PRESENCE OF STRONG CAPPING. HOWEVER...AS MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS LIFTS INTO WESTERN ONTARIO BY THE 03-06Z TIME FRAME...WIND SHIFT AND WEAK COOLING ALOFT MAY WEAKEN INHIBITION SUFFICIENTLY FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION. GIVEN STRENGTH OF POTENTIAL INSTABILITY...WITH 100 MB MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 2000 TO 3000 J/KG...STRONG SHEAR IN PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT WILL ENHANCE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ..KERR.. 06/08/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX... 45149516 46229400 47129313 46959239 46129194 45219273 44539373 44389515 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 8 02:48:51 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 07 Jun 2004 21:48:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406080248.i582mU803147@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 080247 SWOMCD SPC MCD 080246 MNZ000-SDZ000-080445- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1136 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0946 PM CDT MON JUN 07 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SD INTO SW MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 080246Z - 080445Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF WW. NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING...VICINITY OF WEAK SURFACE FRONT ADVANCING INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ACTIVITY FROM THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD INTO THE BRAINERD MN AREA APPEARS TO BE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO FRONT...BUT MAY BE JUST BEHIND FRONTAL WIND SHIFT. OTHER ACTIVITY DEVELOPING WEST SOUTHWESTWARD INTO SOUTH DAKOTA...TO THE WEST OF WATERTOWN...APPEARS TO BE A BIT FARTHER TO THE COOL SIDE OF FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY IS BEING SUPPORTED BY LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION WHICH PERSISTS ABOVE FRONTAL INVERSION LAYER...IN WAKE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH WHICH CONTINUES TO LIFT ACROSS WESTERN ONTARIO. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN WAKE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH HAVE BEEN STABILIZED WITH LOW-LEVEL COOLING. HOWEVER...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STEEPENING ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS FORCING PARCELS TO SATURATION AND LEVEL OF FREE CONVECTION IN THE 850 TO 700 MB LAYER...WITH CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG. SHEAR PROFILES IN CLOUD BEARING LAYER APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION...WHICH WILL ENHANCE RISK OF LARGE HAIL IN STRONGER STORMS. ..KERR.. 06/08/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...ABR... 44419848 45199724 45599534 45659445 44969376 44299484 43439712 43659861 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 8 05:43:23 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 08 Jun 2004 00:43:23 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406080543.i585h0820157@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 080542 SWOMCD SPC MCD 080542 WIZ000-MNZ000-080645- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1137 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1242 AM CDT TUE JUN 08 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ECNTRL/SERN MN AND WCNTRL WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 080542Z - 080645Z TSTMS HAVE INCREASED IN INTENSITY ACROSS SWRN MN SINCE 04Z. IF THEY MAINTAIN INTENSITY...A WW MAY BE REQUIRED DOWNSTREAM INTO WCNTRL WI. AREA PROFILERS SHOW THAT THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME HAS INCREASED EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS ERN SD INTO CNTRL MN AND MAY BE AIDING IN RECENT TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WCNTRL MN. USING A COMBINATION OF RUC2/ETAKF SOUNDINGS...TSTMS APPEAR TO BE ROOTED JUST BELOW 700 MB. SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR IN THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER AND MUCAPES OF 1500-2000 J/KG ARE FAVORABLE FOR MAINLY HAIL. HOWEVER...RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT GUSTY WINDS...AROUND 30-35 KTS... ARE REACHING THE GROUND. RECENT STORM REPORT INDICATES NEAR 60 MPH WINDS BEING OBSERVED. TSTMS WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE BEING FED FROM PARCELS UPSTREAM AND MAY MAINTAIN CHARACTER AS THEY MOVE INTO THE TWIN CITIES AREA AND PERHAPS INTO WCNTRL WI IN A FEW HOURS. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON HOW FAR EAST THIS TSTMS WILL REMAIN SEVERE...GIVEN THE INCREASED CAP TOWARD THE MS RVR. ..RACY.. 06/08/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX... 45459483 45629076 44889037 43999055 43919146 44159506 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 8 07:10:02 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 08 Jun 2004 02:10:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406080709.i5879d825956@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 080709 SWOMCD SPC MCD 080708 MIZ000-MNZ000-WIZ000-080815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1138 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0208 AM CDT TUE JUN 08 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/NERN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 407... VALID 080708Z - 080815Z BOW ECHO THAT DEVELOPED OVER WCNTRL MN HAS QUICKLY MOVED INTO THE TWIN CITIES AREA LOCATED IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 408. IN ITS WAKE...A FEW TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED TO THE NORTH OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. STRONGEST STORMS ARE MOVING NEWD TOWARD THE MONTEVIDEO AREA AND MAY POSE A HAIL THREAT. OTHER TSTMS MAY FORM UPSTREAM ACROSS SERN SD AS WARM ADVECTION IN THE H85-H7 LAYER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. THESE TSTMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL...BUT A LARGE MAJORITY OF THEM WILL PROBABLY REMAIN SUB-SEVERE. MEANWHILE...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS MOVED TO THE MN SHORES OF LAKE SUPERIOR SWWD THROUGH DULUTH. A FEW TSTMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING AND MOVING NEWD ALONG THE FRONT. THUS FAR...HOWEVER...TSTMS HAVE FAILED TO GROW INTO ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS. SEVERE TSTMS THAT HAVE EVOLVED FROM THE BOW ECHO COMPLEX IN THE TWIN CITIES AREA SEEM TO BE DEVELOPING NWD AND MAY AFFECT SRN PINE COUNTY MN AND BURNETT COUNTY IN WI WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 407 BY 0800 UTC. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTAIN LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ..RACY.. 06/08/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MQT...DLH...MPX...FSD... 44529602 46719446 48029196 48058870 45809173 45759300 44509506 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 8 08:06:10 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 08 Jun 2004 03:06:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406080805.i5885o818093@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 080803 SWOMCD SPC MCD 080802 MIZ000-MNZ000-WIZ000-080900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1139 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0302 AM CDT TUE JUN 08 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ECNTRL/NERN MN INTO WCNTRL/NWRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 407...408... VALID 080802Z - 080900Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCHES 407 AND 408 ARE SET TO EXPIRE AT 0900 UTC. ANOTHER WATCH WILL PROBABLY NOT BE NEEDED. THE BOW ECHO THAT MOVED THROUGH THE TWIN CITIES AREA DID NOT MAINTAIN CHARACTER AS IT MOVED EWD...PROBABLY DUE TO STRONGER CAP LOCATED ALONG THE MS RVR. ELEVATED TSTMS HAVE CONTINUED TO DEVELOP IN THE WAKE DEPRESSION AND WILL MOVE TOWARD THE WRN PARTS OF THE TWIN CITIES METRO AREA THROUGH 10Z. THESE STORMS MAY POSE AN ISOLD HAIL THREAT. MEANWHILE...DOWNSTREAM...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS MOVED INTO WCNTRL/ NWRN WI WITH A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTICITY CENTER MOVING ENEWD INTO BURNETT COUNTY WI. THIS MCV EVOLVED FROM THE HEAD PORTION OF THE RECENTLY WEAKENED BOW ECHO. ASSOCIATED TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ENEWD TOWARD HAYWARD BY 0800 UTC AND COULD PERIODICALLY PRODUCE A DAMAGING WIND GUST OR HAIL. OTHERWISE...SUSTAINED DEEP CONVECTION HAS FAILED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE OUTFLOW/FRONT FARTHER NORTH ACROSS NERN MN LATELY. TSTMS MAY INCREASE UPSTREAM FROM THE SERN ND/NERN SD AREA NEWD INTO CNTRL/NRN MN IN A FEW HOURS. THESE TSTMS SHOULD MAINLY BE SUB-SEVERE...BUT COULD PRODUCE ISOLD HAIL TO NEAR SEVERE LEVELS. GIVEN ISOLD COVERAGE OF THE SEVERE THREATS...IT DOES NOT SEEM PRUDENT TO ISSUE CONTINUATION WATCHES ACROSS THE UPPER MS VLY ATTM. ..RACY.. 06/08/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MQT...DLH...MPX... 44709563 46229490 48049193 48038870 45769166 45649077 44559214 44549468 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 8 19:27:38 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 08 Jun 2004 14:27:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406081927.i58JRK210275@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 081925 SWOMCD SPC MCD 081924 NEZ000-082130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1140 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0224 PM CDT TUE JUN 08 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN AND CNTRL NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 081924Z - 082130Z A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED SHORTLY FOR PORTIONS OF SWRN AND CNTRL NEB. THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR STORM INITIATION WITHIN 1-2 HOURS. INTENSE SURFACE HEATING COUPLED WITH VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER HAS RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF QUASISTATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS SWRN NEB. ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO OF HEATING COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE MESOSCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG THE FRONT AND NEAR SURFACE LOW SHOULD ELIMINATE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION SUFFICIENTLY FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT. EXPANDING WARM SECTOR CU FIELD FURTHER SUGGESTS THIS PROCESS IS UNDERWAY. MOST SUPPORTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS WAS CURRENTLY SITUATED ALONG THE NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ANY STORMS THIS AREA WILL BE LIKELY TO PRODUCE VERY LARGE HAIL. IF CELLS CAN FORM ON THE BOUNDARY...OR BUILD INTO THE WARM SECTOR...MAGNITUDE OF CAPE AND STRENGTH OF LOW LEVEL SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR NOW EVIDENT ON AREA WIND PROFILER DATA WOULD SUPPORT THE THREAT OF TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO VERY LARGE HAIL. ..CARBIN.. 06/08/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD... 40559953 40250184 40970201 41650208 42649881 42199834 41139765 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 8 20:23:55 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 08 Jun 2004 15:23:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406082023.i58KNV217556@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 082022 SWOMCD SPC MCD 082022 COZ000-082145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1141 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0322 PM CDT TUE JUN 08 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 082022Z - 082145Z A WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SHORTLY ACROSS NERN CO. TSTMS ARE NOW DEVELOPING RAPIDLY NEAR THE PALMER DIVIDE AND ON THE FRONT RANGE AS CAP HAS BEEN OVERCOME BY STRONG SFC HEATING. MOIST POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ALLOW STORMS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITHIN MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS NERN CO THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR NEAR THE UPDRAFT SOURCE REGION WILL SUPPORT A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL/HIGH WIND AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO. ..CARBIN.. 06/08/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU... 38950226 38740422 39090476 40750503 40870236 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 8 20:32:27 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 08 Jun 2004 15:32:27 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406082032.i58KW3223390@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 082030 SWOMCD SPC MCD 082029 WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-082230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1142 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0329 PM CDT TUE JUN 08 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MN/ERN NE/NRN IA/WRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 082029Z - 082230Z ...STORMS WILL BE INCREASING IN COVERAGE ALONG BOUNDARY THIS AFTN WITH MAIN SEVERE THREAT FROM LARGE HAIL... STORM NOW MOVING OVER PIERCE/MADISON COUNTIES IN NEB IS BECOMING SFC BASED ...AS THE STORM MOVES INTO AN AREA OF GREATER SFC INSTABILITY. THE AIRMASS ACROSS ERN NEB/NRN IA/SRN WI IS BECOMING VERY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 3000 J/KG. SFC BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM 40 NE BUB/30 NNW SUX/25 ESE MKT/30 WNW RHI...AND INSTABILITY NORTH AND WEST OF THE BOUNDARY IS OF COURSE LIMITED AND STORMS WILL BE ELEVATED. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK IN THE WARM SECTOR...BUT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY VALUES WILL BE AROUND 30 KT ACCORDING TO POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE 18Z RUC. SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH LARGE INSTABILITY MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED SVR TSTMS...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL. ..TAYLOR.. 06/08/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX... 41459496 41259698 42319771 43409542 44629364 44488793 42538781 42439106 41629406 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 8 21:36:26 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 08 Jun 2004 16:36:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406082136.i58La2203406@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 082132 SWOMCD SPC MCD 082131 KSZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-082330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1143 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0431 PM CDT TUE JUN 08 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN KS/SERN CO/ERN NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 082131Z - 082330Z ...TSTMS WILL POSE A WIND/HAIL THREAT NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN... ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS RELATIVELY WEAK...THE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE AROUND 50-60 DEGREES ACROSS SE CO/ERN NM RESULTING IN VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AROUND 10 C/KM. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS DEVELOPMENT ALONG STATIONARY FRONT VCNTY ITR/LAA. AS STORMS MOVE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...THEY WILL ENCOUNTER GREATER INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG. STORMS WILL BE MAINLY FOCUSED ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND/OR OUTFLOW OR OTHER SFC BOUNDARIES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. MAIN THREAT WILL LIKELY BE FROM DOWNBURST WINDS...WITH A SECONDARY THREAT OF LARGE HAIL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE WHICH MAY HELP SUSTAIN STORMS MOVING OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN INTO THE EVENING. ..TAYLOR.. 06/08/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...MAF...PUB...ABQ...EPZ... 32450571 33250576 35640533 37730414 39900111 39970040 39139982 36480311 33090406 32180455  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 8 22:26:02 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 08 Jun 2004 17:26:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406082225.i58MPc202624@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 082224 SWOMCD SPC MCD 082224 NEZ000-090030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1144 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0524 PM CDT TUE JUN 08 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SW...S CNTRL NEB CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 409... VALID 082224Z - 090030Z CONTINUE WW. INITIAL ATTEMPTS AT DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAVE BEEN SUPPRESSED BY LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC INHIBITION. HOWEVER...STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE REMAINS FOCUSED ACROSS THIS REGION ON NOSE OF 30 TO 50 KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET. ONGOING INCREASE IN CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO APPEARS REFLECTIVE OF FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK MID/UPPER SHORT WAVE...WHICH LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD IN BROADLY ANTICYCLONIC UPPER FLOW REGIME NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. AS THIS OCCURS...INCREASING LIFT IN CAPPING LAYER SHOULD WEAKEN INHIBITION...ALLOWING PARCELS TO REACH LEVEL OF FREE CONVECTION. GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF POTENTIAL INSTABILITY...WITH MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2500 J/KG... SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION IN INITIAL ACTIVITY... BEFORE CONVECTION MERGES/EVOLVES INTO LARGER MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SATEM. ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE VICINITY OF SHARP FRONTAL ZONE...BUT PRIMARY THREATS APPEAR TO BE HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS...EVENTUALLY LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. ..KERR.. 06/08/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD... 41130158 41440100 41749892 40639858 40349907 40160009 40030139 40390188 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 8 23:04:45 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 08 Jun 2004 18:04:45 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406082304.i58N4L224393@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 082303 SWOMCD SPC MCD 082302 NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-090100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1145 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0602 PM CDT TUE JUN 08 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO...NW KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 410... VALID 082302Z - 090100Z CONTINUE WW. PRE-FRONTAL THERMAL RIDGE...EXTENDING FROM EAST CENTRAL COLORADO THROUGH AREAS NEAR GOODLAND KS/NORTH PLATTE NEB...IS BECOMING FOCUS FOR INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THIS APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING LIFT IN CAPPING LAYER...ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK MID/UPPER SHORT WAVE MIGRATING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. STRONG HEATING WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 90S HAS CONTRIBUTED TO WEAKENING INHIBITION...AS HAS NORTHWESTWARD ADVECTION OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO VICINITY OF THERMAL RIDGE AXIS. FURTHER INCREASE/INTENSIFICATION WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWEST OF GOODLAND KS INTO THE IMPERIAL NEB AREA...WITH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL/ DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS IN MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. OTHER STRONG/SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPING NORTHEAST OF COLORADO SPRINGS APPEAR TO BE IN MOIST POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE ENVIRONMENT... WHERE STRONG VEERING WITH HEIGHT OF LOW/MID-LEVEL WIND FIELDS MAY BE SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST BRIEF UPDRAFT ROTATION. THIS WILL ENHANCE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH THIS ACTIVITY...WHICH WILL LIKELY BE SLOW TO WEAKEN/PROPAGATE AWAY FROM THE PALMER RIDGE. ..KERR.. 06/08/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU... 39730466 39930416 39830366 39750293 40480210 40910161 40620110 39840181 39030234 38590250 38410297 38580348 38830466 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 8 23:46:28 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 08 Jun 2004 18:46:28 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406082346.i58Nk4212594@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 082345 SWOMCD SPC MCD 082344 IAZ000-MNZ000-090145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1146 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0644 PM CDT TUE JUN 08 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 411... VALID 082344Z - 090145Z CONTINUE WW. SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY HAVE SUGGESTED ONGOING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EAST NORTHEAST OF SIOUX CITY IA HAS BEEN SUPPORTED BY FOCUSED AREA OF ENHANCED UPPER DIVERGENCE AND WEAK MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION. THIS FEATURE...PERHAPS ASSOCIATED WITH PRIOR CONVECTIVE CLUSTER...IS EMBEDDED WITHIN MOIST PLUME TO THE SOUTH OF STRONGER WESTERLIES...ABOVE LOW/MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA. GIVEN FAVORABLE FORCING...VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LIKELY WILL CONTINUE NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTH OF FORT DODGE INTO THE MASON CITY AREA NEXT FEW HOURS...SLOWLY MERGING INTO LARGER CONVECTIVE CLUSTER. ROOTED IN VERY MOIST UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 70F SURFACE DEW POINTS/MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 3000 J/KG...STRONG UPDRAFTS ARE LIKELY...CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING VERY HEAVY RAIN...PERHAPS SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL DESPITE WEAK SHEAR PROFILES. THOUGH LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STEEP...MID-LEVELS ARE RELATIVELY DRY...AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SLOW EVOLUTION OF SURFACE COLD POOL/GUST FRONT. ..KERR.. 06/08/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD... 43239516 43599375 43609314 43029267 42369292 42019380 41849454 41899528 42589543 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 9 00:55:42 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 08 Jun 2004 19:55:42 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406090055.i590tc217125@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 090054 SWOMCD SPC MCD 090054 WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-090300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1147 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0754 PM CDT TUE JUN 08 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SE MN THROUGH S CNTRL WI CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 090054Z - 090300Z NEW WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. DOWNSTREAM OF POSSIBLE ORGANIZING CLUSTER OF STORMS...NOW TO THE WEST OF MASON CITY IA...LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE/DEFORMATION ZONE EXTENDS EAST NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THIS IS BECOMING A FOCUS FOR INCREASING CONVECTION...IN VERY MOIST UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 2000 TO 3000 J/KG. RATHER WARM THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AND WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR MAY MARGINALIZE HAIL POTENTIAL...BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS NEAR STRONGER CORES ARE POSSIBLE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH ONSET OF SURFACE COOLING...ACTIVITY WILL BECOME ROOTED ABOVE SHALLOW SURFACE INVERSION...TRAINING ALONG/NORTH OF 20 TO 30 KT WEST SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS. IF UPSTREAM CLUSTER CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE/DEVELOP A SURFACE COLD POOL...THIS APPEARS TO PROVIDE BEST POTENTIAL FOR POTENTIALLY DAMAGING SURFACE GUSTS AS IT PROPAGATES NORTH/NORTHEAST OF WATERLOO...TOWARD THE LA CROSSE AREA BY 05-06Z. ..KERR.. 06/09/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX...DMX... 43899256 44489198 44529070 44248827 43708768 43218798 43148969 43019084 42779160 42799265 43019286 43229278 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 9 01:21:46 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 08 Jun 2004 20:21:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406090121.i591LM230492@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 090120 SWOMCD SPC MCD 090120 NEZ000-SDZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-090315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1148 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0820 PM CDT TUE JUN 08 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CNTRL NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 090120Z - 090315Z WWS 409/410 MAY BE REPLACED WITH NEW WW BY 02Z...BUT FINAL DETERMINATION WILL BE MADE AFTER COORDINATION WITH AFFECTED WFOS. SOUNDING FROM NORTH PLATTE INDICATES MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN STEEP AND SUPPORTIVE OF CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG. THIS MAY BECOME GREATER THIS EVENING AS NORTHWARD MOISTURE RETURN CONTRIBUTES TO MOISTENING ABOVE FRONTAL INVERSION ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL NEBRASKA. AS UPPER FLOW PATTERN AMPLIFIES IN RESPONSE TO DIGGING UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST...MODELS SUGGEST STRONGEST FORCING ON NOSE OF SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD OUT OF SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA BETWEEN NOW AND 06Z. FARTHER NORTH OF LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE...AREA OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION HAS BEEN SUPPORTING VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTH OF VALENTINE NEB...PAST FEW HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN...AS UPSTREAM NORTHEAST COLORADO/SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA CONVECTION SPREADS/DEVELOPS NORTHWARD. ..KERR.. 06/09/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...GID...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS... 40090063 39750191 40070308 41430301 42090189 42790122 43460024 43469929 42699878 41779853 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 9 04:59:47 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 08 Jun 2004 23:59:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406090459.i594xN216129@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 090458 SWOMCD SPC MCD 090458 NEZ000-SDZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-090700- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1149 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1158 PM CDT TUE JUN 08 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 412... VALID 090458Z - 090700Z CONTINUE WW. INTENSE CONVECTION PERSISTS IN SMALL CLUSTER NEAR MCCOOK...WHERE ISENTROPIC ASCENT HAS STEEPENED ALONG LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS...ABOVE COLD SURFACE RIDGE WHICH HAS NOSED SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS. ACTIVITY MAY BE ENHANCED BY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL TROUGH/VORTICITY CENTER AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF FOCUSED UPPER DIVERGENCE. UNTIL THIS FORCING WEAKENS...SLOWLY DRIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT...RISK OF STRONG UPDRAFTS WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL CONTINUE IN MODERATELY UNSTABLE...WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. ..KERR.. 06/09/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...GID...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS... 40090063 39750191 40070308 41430301 42090189 42790122 43460024 43469929 42699878 41779853 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 9 06:06:22 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 09 Jun 2004 01:06:22 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406090605.i5965w214957@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 090603 SWOMCD SPC MCD 090603 NEZ000-KSZ000-090630- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1150 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0103 AM CDT WED JUN 09 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN NEB AND NWRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 412... VALID 090603Z - 090630Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 412 IS SET TO EXPIRE AT 0700 UTC...BUT IF CURRENT DOWNWARD TREND IN CONVECTION CONTINUES...IT WILL BE CANCELLED EARLY. PROFILERS ARE SHOWING AROUND 35 KTS SLY LLJ EXTENDING FROM WRN OK INTO SWRN NEB. ENHANCED WARM ADVECTION HAS SUPPORTED STRONG TSTMS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. HOWEVER...THE TREND WILL BE FOR THE LLJ TO VEER QUICKLY TO A MORE SWLY DIRECTION PER THE 0300 UTC RUC AND THE SWRN KS PROFILERS MAY BE INDICATING A SLIGHT VEERING OVER THE PAST HOUR. AS A RESULT...CURRENT WEAKENING OF THE CONVECTION VCNTY MCCOOK MAY BE A PERMANENT TREND. ..RACY.. 06/09/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD... 39250188 40520192 41719980 40419970 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 9 14:12:54 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 09 Jun 2004 09:12:54 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406091412.i59ECV227301@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 091411 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091411 MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-091615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1151 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0911 AM CDT WED JUN 09 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN NY...VT...NH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 091411Z - 091615Z CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN NY AND NRN/CNTRL VT AND NRN NH INTO THE AFTERNOON. A SEVERE TSTM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION BEFORE NOON. SMALL SCALE LINEAR MCS WAS MOVING EAST AT ABOUT 40KT AND WILL CROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER AND MOVE INTO NRN NY SHORTLY. AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE ONGOING STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE WHICH COULD SUPPORT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN STORM INTENSITY AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD WIND DAMAGE. STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE FURTHER AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AND STORMS DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...NOW SITUATED NORTH OF THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. HOWEVER...LATEST ETA RUN APPEARS TO BACK OFF A BIT ON CONVECTIVE QPF AND STRENGTH OF UVV ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT COMPARED TO EARLIER MODEL RUNS. NONETHELESS...MODERATE AND WEAKLY CAPPED INSTABILITY IN THE PRESENCE OF MODEST AND INCREASING MID LEVEL FLOW...AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL THROUGH THE DAY. ..CARBIN.. 06/09/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF... 43697244 43287683 45467597 45267096 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 9 15:24:53 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 09 Jun 2004 10:24:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406091524.i59FOY213782@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 091521 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091521 MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-091715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1152 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1021 AM CDT WED JUN 09 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LWR MI...NRN IND...NWRN OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 091521Z - 091715Z POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE TSTMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS PARTS OF LWR MI/NRN IND AND NWRN OH INTO THE AFTERNOON. A SEVERE TSTM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED OVER THE REGION BY AFTERNOON. LATEST MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS SRN LOWER MI WITH OBJECTIVE DATA SUGGESTING WEAKLY CAPPED MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 2000-2500 J/KG. CONTINUATION OF STRONG SURFACE HEATING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SHOULD FURTHER BOOST INSTABILITY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. A CLUSTER OF STORMS CURRENTLY DRIFTING EAST OVER SWRN MI MAY INTENSIFY AS THIS INSTABILITY IS TAPPED. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT SAGS SWD INTO THE INSTABILITY AXIS THIS AFTERNOON. RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR PROFILES... WITH 20-30KT WLY FLOW THROUGH THE TROPOSPHERE...SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT OFFSET BY FRONTAL CIRCULATION...MAGNITUDE OF CAPE...AND ANTICIPATED STORM COVERAGE TO RESULT IN A NUMBER OF STRONG TO SEVERE DAMAGING WIND EVENTS. ..CARBIN.. 06/09/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR... 41458323 41308585 41368687 43218653 43918263 42918239  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 9 17:06:55 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 09 Jun 2004 12:06:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406091706.i59H6b222369@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 091705 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091704 MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-091830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1153 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1204 PM CDT WED JUN 09 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MA...NH...ME CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 091704Z - 091830Z A SEVERE TSTM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED SHORTLY FOR PORTIONS OF NH AND ME...AND POSSIBLY PARTS OF NRN/NERN MA. STORMS MOVING ESEWD AT 45KT ACROSS NRN VT ATTM SHOULD MAINTAIN INTENSITY AS GREATER SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY IS REALIZED. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CURRENT WATCH AND INTO NRN NH WITHIN THE HOUR. ADDITIONAL TSTMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF SRN QUEBEC COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS PARTS OF NRN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. INCREASING WLY MID LEVEL FLOW AND FRONTAL FORCING...COUPLED WITH STRONG INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUING THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL. ..CARBIN.. 06/09/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV... 44567147 45717046 46746969 46366829 44556787 42657111 42807251 44127201 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 9 18:42:36 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 09 Jun 2004 13:42:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406091842.i59IgC226932@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 091841 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091841 NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-092015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1154 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0141 PM CDT WED JUN 09 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN NY AND VT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 413... VALID 091841Z - 092015Z WHILE INITIAL BROKEN LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS HAS MOVED EAST OF WATCH 413 AND INTO NH...NEW DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND HAS WAS INTENSIFYING ACROSS PARTS OF ST. LAWRENCE AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN NRN NY. MORE ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING FARTHER UPSTREAM ON THE ACTUAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SRN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PARAMETERS ACROSS THE WATCH AREA WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ..CARBIN.. 06/09/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF... 42317748 43907754 45077230 43477230 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 9 18:43:57 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 09 Jun 2004 13:43:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406091843.i59IhX227728@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 091842 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091842 NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-092015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1155 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0142 PM CDT WED JUN 09 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 091842Z - 092015Z ...CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING CLOSELY MONITORED ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE AND A WATCH MAY BE ISSUED BY AROUND 20Z... A BOUNDARY IS APPARENT IN THE DENVER RADAR REFLECTIVITY IMAGERY...WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW OBSERVED AT COLORADO SPRINGS...EASTERLY FLOW AT DENVER AND NORTHEAST FLOW AT BOULDER IMPLYING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES ARE NOT VERY STRONG YET...WITH ONLY ABOUT 20-25 KT OF MID LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER...DIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE VERY FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS AND SFC DEWPOINTS ARE INCREASING INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S. A STORM RECENTLY TRIED TO FORM OVER DOUGLAS COUNTY CO...AND THIS APPEARS TO BE SURFACE BASED. ALTHOUGH THIS STORM IS WEAKENING...THE FACT THAT IT FORMED SUGGESTS THAT OTHER SFC BASED DEVELOPMENT MAY BE IMMINENT. THE MODIFIED SOUNDING AT DENVER GIVEN LATEST OBS IS PARTIALLY CAPPED...BUT A FEW MORE DEGREES OF WARMING INTO THE LOW 80S SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME THE INHIBITION. WITH SFC MOISTURE INCREASING AND FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES...ANY SFC BASED STORM WHICH FORMS WILL LIKELY ROTATE AND THUS BE A TORNADO/LARGE HAIL THREAT. ..TAYLOR.. 06/09/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU... 37070248 37150359 38580463 40070494 40840472 40980383 40980214 40530196 37860198 37110207 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 9 18:53:30 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 09 Jun 2004 13:53:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406091853.i59Ir8202355@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 091852 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091851 OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-092015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1156 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0151 PM CDT WED JUN 09 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LWR MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 414... VALID 091851Z - 092015Z NUMEROUS STRONG AND SEVERE TSTMS CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY EAST ACROSS SERN LWR MI WITHIN VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. A FEW CELLS HAVE DEVELOPED SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS AFTER ENCOUNTERING LOCALLY ENHANCED STORM-SCALE SHEAR PROBABLY DUE TO LAKE BREEZE/OUTFLOW INTERACTIONS. OVERALL...SHEAR AND INSTABILITY PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT WIND AND/OR HAIL WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT ACROSS THE REMAINING VALID PORTIONS OF THE WATCH. ..CARBIN.. 06/09/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR... 41438536 43678536 43658250 41338247 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 9 19:24:51 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 09 Jun 2004 14:24:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406091924.i59JOR223175@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 091920 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091920 MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-092045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1157 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0220 PM CDT WED JUN 09 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NH AND ME CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 416... VALID 091920Z - 092045Z BROKEN LINE OF STRONG TSTMS WERE MOVING SEWD AT 40KT AND TOWARD INSTABILITY AXIS JUST INLAND FROM THE ME COAST. RECENT RADAR IMAGES FROM GYX WERE INDICATING A SLIGHT WEAKENING TREND WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ISOLD STRONGER CELLS MOVING ACROSS SRN FRANKLIN COUNTY AND SRN ANDROSCOGGIN COUNTY. NUMEROUS WIND DAMAGE REPORTS OCCURRED AS THESE STORMS MOVED ACROSS VT/NH AND EXPECT THIS HAZARD SHOULD CONTINUE AS THE STORMS/OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS VERY WARM AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE AFTER THIS INITIAL ROUND OF STORMS AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW LATER TODAY. ..CARBIN.. 06/09/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV... 43037207 45027210 45046708 43106707 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 9 19:47:26 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 09 Jun 2004 14:47:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406091947.i59Jl8205000@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 091944 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091944 NYZ000-PAZ000-OHZ000-092115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1158 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0244 PM CDT WED JUN 09 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN OH...NWRN PA...WRN NY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 415... VALID 091944Z - 092115Z CURRENTLY ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG TSTMS EXIST ACROSS TSTM WATCH 415. HOWEVER...STRONG TO SEVERE ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING UPSTREAM ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER SWRN ONTARIO...AS WELL AS ON A SQUALL LINE MOVING SEWD FROM LWR MI. RECENT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM PULSE STORMS OVER NRN OH HAVE COLLIDED WITH THE LAKE BREEZE FRONT ACROSS NRN OH AND THIS MAY SPUR BRIEF STORM INTENSIFICATION. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS ALL OF THE WATCH AREA INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON. ..CARBIN.. 06/09/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...ILN... 40188301 41768301 43327768 41747768 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 9 20:18:43 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 09 Jun 2004 15:18:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406092018.i59KII225008@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 092013 SWOMCD SPC MCD 092013 WYZ000-MTZ000-IDZ000-092145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1159 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0313 PM CDT WED JUN 09 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ID AND SWRN MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 092013Z - 092145Z TSTMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS COULD BE SEVERE AND A WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED SHORTLY. CONVECTION HAS INCREASED ACROSS THE TETONS AND BITTERROOTS THIS AFTERNOON AS DIFFERENTIAL HEATING...UPSLOPE FLOW...AND STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITHIN EXIT REGION OF MID LEVEL JET ACT ON DESTABILIZING AIRMASS. LATEST POINT FORECAST SOUNDING DATA FROM ACROSS THE REGION SUGGEST MLCAPE COULD INCREASE TO BETWEEN 500-1200 J/KG AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AND STRONG HEATING CONTINUES. THIS INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE TO MAINTAIN STORMS DEVELOPING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SERN ID. VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WILL ONLY STRENGTHEN FURTHER AS MID LEVEL WIND MAX MOVES OVER THE AREA. EXPECT INCREASING CHANCE OF FAST MOVING STORMS...POSSIBLY SUPERCELLS...GENERATING HIGH/DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. ..CARBIN.. 06/09/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RIW...TFX...SLC...PIH...MSO...BOI... 42091101 42061508 43251573 44631432 45791363 45521106 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 9 20:25:36 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 09 Jun 2004 15:25:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406092025.i59KPD229475@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 092022 SWOMCD SPC MCD 092021 NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-092115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1160 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0321 PM CDT WED JUN 09 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CNTRL NY/WRN VT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 413... VALID 092021Z - 092115Z ...WW 413 WILL LIKELY BE REPLACED... COLD FRONT STILL LIES NORTHWEST OF THE AREA...ALONG WITH MORE STRONG/SVR STORMS WHICH HAVE FORMED ALONG AND EAST OF THE FRONT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR FROM LATEST OBSERVATIONAL ANALYSIS SUGGESTS VALUES REMAIN AROUND 30-35 KT...WITHIN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS / 2500 J/KG / IN THE WARM SECTOR. THE STORMS WILL MOVE INTO WRN NY/VT AND BE WELL MAINTAINED WITHIN MDT WLY FLOW ALOFT. A NEW WW WILL BE ISSUED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. ..TAYLOR.. 06/09/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF... 43467229 42377746 43937747 45087226 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 9 22:29:57 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 09 Jun 2004 17:29:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406092229.i59MTY208828@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 092229 SWOMCD SPC MCD 092228 MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-092330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1162 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0528 PM CDT WED JUN 09 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NY...NH...VT...MA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 419... VALID 092228Z - 092330Z ...SQUALL LINE APPEARS TO BE ORGANIZING/INTENSIFYING ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN PORTIONS OF WW... STORM MERGERS ALONG WITH EXPANDING CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS APPEAR TO BE ORGANIZING INTO A MORE ORGANIZED BAND FROM SRN PORTIONS OF VT/NH...WWD ACROSS CENTRAL NY. THIS LEADING ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE PROPAGATING SEWD INTO A FAIRLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY SBCAPES IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS NOT THAT STRONG...INCREASING PRECIP SHIELD MAY ENHANCE COLD POOL WHICH WOULD LEAD TO A MORE EFFICIENT WIND PRODUCING SQUALL LINE. ..DARROW.. 06/09/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF... 43497648 43897358 43057019 42687160 42257587 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 9 22:44:27 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 09 Jun 2004 17:44:27 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406092244.i59Mi3218308@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 092243 SWOMCD SPC MCD 092242 KSZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-NEZ000-NMZ000-SDZ000-WYZ000-100015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1163 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0542 PM CDT WED JUN 09 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN WY/ERN CO/NEB PANHANDLE CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 417... VALID 092242Z - 100015Z TORNADO POTENTIAL CONTINUES ACROSS THE WW...WITH FAVORABLE DIRECTIONAL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR. RECENT PLATTEVILLE PROFILER SHOWS 40 KT ELY FLOW IN THE LOWEST LAYER...WITH WINDS SHARPLY VEERING WITH HEIGHT IN THE LOWEST 3 KM. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS BEING MAXIMIZED E OF DENVER...WHERE WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO NW BUT S/SELY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE SERN PORTION OF THE WATCH. MYRIAD OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES NOTED ACROSS NERN CO...AND TORNADO POTENTIAL COULD BE LOCALLY ENHANCED GIVEN POSITIVE SUPERCELL ENVIRONMENT. STORM ACROSS ADAMS COUNTY HAS HAD AT LEAST 1 TORNADO PER RECENT STORM REPORTS. STORMS IN WRN KS ARE MOVING W AND WILL EVENTUALLY COLLIDE WITH SERN CO STORMS. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR DECREASES ACROSS SE CO...SUPERCELLS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES IN THIS AREA AS WELL. ..TAYLOR.. 06/09/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DDC...UNR...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...CYS...ABQ...RIW... 43140397 43160719 36960428 37000142 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 9 22:56:09 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 09 Jun 2004 17:56:09 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406092255.i59Mtk225277@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 092254 SWOMCD SPC MCD 092254 MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-100030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1164 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0554 PM CDT WED JUN 09 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF SRN/CENTRAL OK INTO SERN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 092254Z - 100030Z ...ISOLATED BRIEF WEAK TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS FROM SRN OK INTO SERN KS... REGIONAL RADAR DATA SUGGEST A WEAK MESOSCALE CIRCULATION HAS EVOLVED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL OK IN THE VICINITY OF MURRAY COUNTY. THIS FEATURE IS LIFTING NNEWD AND APPEARS TO BE ORGANIZING SOMEWHAT WITHIN A BROADER ZONE OF CONVECTION. IT APPEARS THIS FEATURE MAY BE AIDING SCATTERED LOW TOPPED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITHIN WARM ADVECTION BAND FROM THE CIRCULATION CENTER...NEWD TOWARD LINCOLN COUNTY OK. MOST RECENT DIAGNOSTIC DATA INDICATES LOW LEVEL SHEAR...ON THE ORDER OF 30-35KT IN THE LOWEST 1KM... WILL CERTAINLY SUPPORT SOME THREAT FOR BRIEF WEAK TORNADOES WITH THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS. ..DARROW.. 06/09/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN... 43497648 43897358 43057019 42687160 42257587 34599827 36289761 37659580 37089454 35809535 34579620 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 10 00:00:29 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 09 Jun 2004 19:00:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406100000.i5A005225571@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 092359 SWOMCD SPC MCD 092359 MTZ000-IDZ000-NVZ000-100130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1165 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0659 PM CDT WED JUN 09 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN MT/ERN ID CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 418... VALID 092359Z - 100130Z ...MAIN THREAT WILL BE FROM MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL... LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS STATIONARY SFC FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR LANDER WY TO DILLON MT TO PULLMAN WA. MAIN SHEAR/VORTICITY AXIS NOW OVER ERN OREGON/SRN NV WILL PROGRESS EWD ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALE LIFT ACROSS ID/MT. THE STEEPEST LAPSE RATES ARE ACROSS S CNTRL ID WHERE SFC INSOLATION HAS BEEN THE GREATEST. ANY SFC BASED STORMS THAT COULD INITIATE IN THIS AREA MAY HAVE SOME POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE GIVEN 40-50 DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS. HOWEVER...MAIN THREAT APPEARS TO BE FROM MARGINALLY LARGE HAIL WITH VERY LOW WBZ LEVELS AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AOA 50-60 KT. ..TAYLOR.. 06/09/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TFX...SLC...PIH...MSO...BOI...LKN... 46921505 41981531 42011153 46961095 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 10 00:15:40 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 09 Jun 2004 19:15:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406100015.i5A0FH200712@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 100013 SWOMCD SPC MCD 100012 PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-100115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1166 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0712 PM CDT WED JUN 09 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...OH...WRN PA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 420... VALID 100012Z - 100115Z ...THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN ACROSS THE WW... ONSET OF BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING WILL PROVE DETRIMENTAL TO STORM INTENSITY ACROSS MUCH OF OH AND WRN PA AS ONGOING ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE SEWD ACROSS WW. ALTHOUGH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL SPREAD INTO WRN PORTIONS OF WATCH OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED WITH MOST ACTIVITY. ..DARROW.. 06/10/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN... 40758315 41458024 41357790 40817961 39668193 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 10 03:39:07 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 09 Jun 2004 22:39:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406100338.i5A3cq232484@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 100338 SWOMCD SPC MCD 100337 KSZ000-NEZ000-100430- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1167 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1037 PM CDT WED JUN 09 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN KS...WRN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 423... VALID 100337Z - 100430Z ...MCS WILL SPREAD ACROSS REMAINDER OF WW OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS... MCS HAS EVOLVED OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS FROM WRN NEB...ARCING ACROSS WRN KS. THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE ENEWD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NEB WHERE A WELL DEFINED WARM FRONT IS SLOWLY RETREATING NWD. WITH STRONGEST LLJ/WARM ADVECTION EXTENDING FROM NEB INTO SERN MT...IT APPEARS NRN PORTIONS OF MCS WILL MOVE EAST OF WW OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SEVERE THREAT IS GRADUALLY DECREASING WITH THIS ORGANIZED BAND OF CONVECTION. ..DARROW.. 06/10/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...CYS... 38220157 40740181 42050275 42760309 42780173 41080036 39020009 37910042 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 10 07:00:18 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 10 Jun 2004 02:00:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406100659.i5A6xt216525@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 100659 SWOMCD SPC MCD 100658 TXZ000-100830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1168 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0158 AM CDT THU JUN 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL TX CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 100658Z - 100830Z THERE WILL BE AN ISOLD BRIEF TORNADO THREAT ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL TX OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A WEATHER WATCH SHOULD NOT BE NECESSARY...UNLESS AN UPSWING IN TSTM COVERAGE IS NOTED. VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE MAIN PART OF THE SYNOPTIC UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SHIFTING NEWD INTO SCNTRL TX ATTM. THERE WAS A BRIEF LULL IN CONVECTION IN WAKE OF THE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO NERN TX. SINCE 06 UTC...HOWEVER...TSTMS HAVE INTENSIFIED OVER ERN PARTS OF CNTRL TX BETWEEN COLLEGE STATION AND KILLEEN AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM IMPULSE. THE AIR MASS REMAINS VERY MOIST ACROSS THE REGION WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MID 70S. STRONGEST INSTABILITY AXIS IS SITUATED FROM THE MIDDLE TX COAST NWWD INTO THE HILL COUNTRY...SO AS TSTMS MOVE NWD INTO NCNTRL TX THEY MAY TEND TO DIMINISH. HOWEVER... THERE SEEMS TO BE A TREND FOR TSTMS TO INTENSIFY WITHIN CONVECTIVE BAND NEAR BRENHAM AND FAYETTE (K11R/K3T5) WITH STORMS MOVING NWD. RUC2 PROXIMITY FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS 30-35 KTS WITH 0-1KM SRH OF 150-200 M2/S2 AND THIS IS CONFIRMED BY AREA VWPS. THUS...ANY TSTM WILL BE CAPABLE OF A BRIEF TORNADO. GREATEST THREAT APPEARS TO BE IN AN AREA BOUNDED BY AUSTIN TO WACO EWD TO HUNTSVILLE AND BRENHAM. HOWEVER...GIVEN STRONGER INSTABILITY AXIS FARTHER SOUTH AND THE INFLUENCE OF THE DISTURBANCE STILL TO PASS THROUGH...CANNOT RULE OUT TSTMS FORMING FARTHER SOUTH IN AREAS EAST OF SAN ANTONIO TO NEAR HOUSTON. ..RACY.. 06/10/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX... 29339778 30709742 31989708 32099639 31869562 30069552 29479564 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 10 16:48:09 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 10 Jun 2004 11:48:09 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406101647.i5AGlq201906@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 101646 SWOMCD SPC MCD 101646 ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-101815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1169 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1146 AM CDT THU JUN 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/NRN MO....SRN/CNTRL IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 101646Z - 101815Z TSTM COVERAGE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS PARTS OF NRN MO AND SWRN/CNTRL IL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT CURRENTLY APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH SOME CHANCE FOR TORNADOES GIVEN VERY MOIST TROPICAL AIRMASS AND LOW LFC. A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED. AIRMASS ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY REGION CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE IN THE WAKE OF LARGE RAIN SHIELD NOW LIFTING NEWD ACROSS ERN IA AND NRN IL. MEANWHILE...WELL-DEFINED MID LEVEL IMPULSE OF TROPICAL/SRN STREAM ORIGIN WAS LIFTING NEWD ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR FROM THE OZARKS. COMBINATION OF WEAKLY CAPPED...VERY MOIST...AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS...AND ASCENT/STRONGER FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL IMPULSE...SHOULD FAVOR AN INCREASE IN ORGANIZED WARM SECTOR CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF MO AND IL INTO THE AFTERNOON. DIFFERENTIAL HEATING/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN THE WAKE OF RAIN SHIELD OVER IL HAS LOCALLY BACKED FLOW IN THIS AREA AND AREA PROFILER DATA APPEARS TO SUPPORT SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR LOW LEVEL STORM ROTATION. AS ACTIVITY INCREASES AND TAPS INTO MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY...TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE. ..CARBIN.. 06/10/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX... 37539095 38439436 39589493 40259463 40599373 40379246 40149009 39938784 38618814 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 10 17:33:20 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 10 Jun 2004 12:33:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406101732.i5AHWv232555@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 101732 SWOMCD SPC MCD 101731 NJZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-101930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1170 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1231 PM CDT THU JUN 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN PA...NJ...MD...DE...ERN WV...VA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 101731Z - 101930Z STRONG AND OCCASIONAL SEVERE TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS A LARGE AREA FROM SERN PA AND NJ SWD OVER THE DELMARVA REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERE TSTM WATCHES MAY BE NEEDED OVER PARTS OF THE REGION IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS PA THIS AFTERNOON WITH MODEST DESTABILIZATION OCCURRING AHEAD OF IT. A FEW STRONGER STORMS HAVE NOW DEVELOPED ON THE FRONT OVER NERN PA AND THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO GREATER INSTABILITY ACROSS SERN PA AND SRN NJ THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL STORMS HAVE BEEN FORMING OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE APPALACHIANS AND THIS CONVECTION WILL ALSO SPREAD EAST INTO VERY MOIST AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS FROM THE WV PNHDL TO DELMARVA. STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW TO AID STORM ORGANIZATION WILL EXIST ACROSS NRN AREAS NEAR THE FRONT AND INCREASING OUTFLOW FROM STORM CLUSTERS/LINES IN THIS AREA MAY EVENTUALLY ORGANIZE SUFFICIENTLY TO POSE A DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS HIGHER INSTABILITY IS REALIZED. FARTHER SOUTH...WEAKER NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW CURRENTLY AROUND 15KT IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INCREASE LATER TODAY. GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE DELMARVA AREA...PULSE AND MULTICELL ACTIVITY MAY BECOME INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED AND POSE SOME THREAT OF WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL. ..CARBIN.. 06/10/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX... 40887639 41177474 40347394 39137483 38387533 36987662 36688117 37008161 39887947 41117821 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 10 18:16:49 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 10 Jun 2004 13:16:49 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406101816.i5AIGQ227086@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 101814 SWOMCD SPC MCD 101814 SDZ000-NEZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-101945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1171 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0114 PM CDT THU JUN 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN WY/NEB PANHANDLE/SWRN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 101814Z - 101945Z ...TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY ACROSS WRN PARTS OF NEB/SD AND A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO... STRONG MID LEVEL IMPULSE IS NOW EJECTING NWD ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF LARGER SCALE DEEP WRN TROUGH. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG DIFFLUENCE WITHIN EXIT REGION OF MID/UPPER JET WILL CONTINUE TO ACT ON INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL/NRN HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLD ACTIVITY WAS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE WARM FRONT OVER SWRN SD AND EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY NEXT FEW HOURS. STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE SURFACE TO 500MB LAYER WILL INITIALLY SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. LOCALLY BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW NEAR THE WARM FRONT COUPLED WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX INTO DEVELOPING LEE-SIDE LOW WILL ENHANCE TORNADO POTENTIAL WITH TIME. ..TAYLOR/CARBIN.. 06/10/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS...BYZ... 42560429 43920578 44770549 45510310 44410012 43630011 42510057 41420233 41440363 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 10 20:40:55 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 10 Jun 2004 15:40:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406102040.i5AKeb224255@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 102038 SWOMCD SPC MCD 102037 OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-102200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1172 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0337 PM CDT THU JUN 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN KS...ERN OK/TX PNHDLS...WRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 102037Z - 102200Z ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE FROM WRN KS SWD TO THE ERN TX PNHDL AND WRN OK LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED OVER PARTS OF THIS REGION. DRYLINE IS MIXING EAST INTO VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST WARM SECTOR SOUNDINGS STILL EXHIBIT SOME CONVECTIVE INHIBITION BUT RUC SOUNDINGS ADJUSTED FOR ANTICIPATED SURFACE CONDITIONS REVEAL THAT CAP SHOULD BE LOCALLY WEAKENED FOR STORM INITIATION AFTER 21Z/4PM CDT. MODEST DIFFERENTIAL DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF LARGE WRN U.S. TROUGH MAY FURTHER AID STORM INITIATION/DEVELOPMENT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE ADEQUATE FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION GIVEN 15-30KT SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TOPPED BY STRONGER SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO STORM COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION GIVEN CURRENT STRENGTH OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. HOWEVER...ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL LIKELY EXHIBIT SUPERCELLS CHARACTERISTICS AND COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...HIGH WINDS...AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO. ..CARBIN.. 06/10/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA... 38219913 35499935 34419988 34500043 35230091 36570043 37460045 37990098 38410150 39910122 39910066 39939955 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 10 21:00:58 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 10 Jun 2004 16:00:58 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406102100.i5AL0a205068@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 102056 SWOMCD SPC MCD 102056 NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-102230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1173 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0356 PM CDT THU JUN 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN PA...SRN NJ...DELMARVA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 424... VALID 102056Z - 102230Z COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DROP SWD INTO NRN PARTS OF WW 424. WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG TSTMS ARE MOVING INTO THE WATCH AREA AT THIS TIME AND AIRMASS REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED BELOW SEVERE LIMITS AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS WEAK. HOWEVER... MID LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO INCREASE GRADUALLY INTO THE EVENING AND IT APPEARS AT LEAST A FEW STORMS COULD STILL PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR SOME HAIL. ..CARBIN.. 06/10/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX... 37987591 37977878 40347668 40377367 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 10 21:48:06 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 10 Jun 2004 16:48:06 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406102147.i5ALlh205281@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 102146 SWOMCD SPC MCD 102145 MTZ000-WYZ000-102315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1174 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0445 PM CDT THU JUN 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MT INTO N-CNTRL WY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 102145Z - 102315Z STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. WW MAY BE REQUIRED. TSTMS HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR FROM SHERIDAN COUNTY WY NEWD INTO CUSTER/ROSEBUD COUNTIES IN SERN MT. COMBINATION OF STRONGLY DIVERGENT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AND ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE N/NE OF SURFACE LOW LOCATED NEAR SHR AS OF 21Z ARE LIKELY PROMOTING STRONG...DEEP-LAYER ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION. 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPES COUPLED WITH 40-50KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED TSTMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. THOUGH LARGE HAIL WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT /GIVEN THE FAVORABLY LOW WBZ HEIGHTS OF 5-7KFT/...BACKED NATURE OF LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL. ..MEAD.. 06/10/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ...GGW...RIW... 44570821 45540851 46870733 47010546 46460516 45870521 45030492 44320669 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 10 22:00:54 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 10 Jun 2004 17:00:54 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406102200.i5AM0V212651@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 102159 SWOMCD SPC MCD 102159 NEZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-102330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1175 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0459 PM CDT THU JUN 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MT/WRN SD/NEB PANHANDLE/FAR NERN CO CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 425... VALID 102159Z - 102330Z ...TORNADIC SUPERCELLS CONTINUE ACROSS WRN NEB... ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ACROSS WRN NEB. SEVERAL TORNADOES HAVE ALREADY BEEN REPORTED IN DEUEL COUNTY...WHERE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY FROM NORTH PLATTE SHOW A LONG LIVED CIRCULATION. PROFILERS/VAD DATA INDICATE GOOD DIRECTIONAL/SPEED SHEAR WHICH WILL SUPPORT THE SUPERCELL MODE FOR A NUMBER OF HOURS THIS EVENING. STORMS ACROSS WRN SD WILL HAVE A HIGHER THREAT FOR STRONG WINDS/LARGE HAIL...PARTICULARLY THE STORM NOW OVER ZIEBACK/HAAKON COUNTIES WHICH WILL BE MOVING INTO WW #427 SHORTLY. THIS AREA ACROSS CNTRL SD APPEARS TO BE LESS CAPPED...AND STORMS WILL LIKELY TRANSITION TO A MORE LINEAR MODE WITH COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT. ..TAYLOR.. 06/10/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR...CYS...BYZ... 41100027 41110329 45910512 45950186 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 10 22:31:59 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 10 Jun 2004 17:31:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406102231.i5AMVa231853@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 102230 SWOMCD SPC MCD 102230 INZ000-ILZ000-110000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1176 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0530 PM CDT THU JUN 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IL/NWRN IN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 102230Z - 110000Z ...ADDITIONAL WATCH MAY BE NEEDED... SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT LIES ACROSS NRN IL JUST SOUTH OF CHICAGO AND INTO NRN INDIANA. ANOTHER BOUNDARY...PERHAPS FORMED BY DIFFERENTIAL HEATING...EXTENDS ALONG A MACOMB/DECATUR LINE ACROSS CNTRL IL. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO BOUNDARIES...ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS ARE SELY WITH RICH SFC MOISTURE / DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW/MID 70S / . WV IMAGERY SHOWS A VORT MAX OVER NRN MO...WHICH WILL ENHANCE LARGE SCALE LIFT AND INCREASE DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS IL/IN TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 20-40 KT AFTER 00Z TONIGHT WHICH WILL MAINTAIN HIGH VALUES OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR. LATEST VAD WINDS FROM ST. LOUIS SUGGEST 0-1KM SHEAR VALUES ALREADY IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE. THREAT WILL INCREASE FOR MINI-SUPERCELLS THROUGH THE EVENING AS SRN BOUNDARY MOVES NORTH...AND WIND FIELDS STRENGTHEN. ..TAYLOR.. 06/10/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...DVN... 40308658 41379025 42498964 41828764 41258611 40408623 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 10 23:09:48 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 10 Jun 2004 18:09:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406102309.i5AN9Q220819@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 102308 SWOMCD SPC MCD 102308 NEZ000-110045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1177 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0608 PM CDT THU JUN 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL/CNTRL NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 102308Z - 110045Z NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO E OF WW 425. AS OF 22Z...MESOANALYSIS SHOWED 996MB SURFACE LOW W OF IML WITH ATTENDANT WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD ALONG THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY /ROUGHLY FROM N OF LBF TO NEAR BBW TO N OF GRI/. TRAILING DRYLINE THEN STRETCHED SWD/SEWD INTO NWRN KS /W OF HLC/. ENVIRONMENT NE OF SURFACE LOW AND N OF WARM FRONT REMAINS QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. HERE...MLCAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG ARE JUXTAPOSITIONED WITH 35-45KT 0-6KM SHEAR / 100-150 M2/S2 0-1KM SRH AND FAVORABLY LOW LFC/LCL HEIGHTS. LONG-LIVED SUPERCELL OVER ERN ARTHUR/WRN MCPHERSON COUNTIES CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD/NEWD AT 30KTS AND SHOULD APPROACH ERN PORTIONS OF WW 425 BY 0000-0030Z. ADDITIONAL STORMS FORMING OVER CNTRL CHERRY COUNTY WILL POSE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AS THEY CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY. A NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED E OF WW 425 WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. ..MEAD.. 06/10/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF... 42950082 42949858 41079803 41070028 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 11 04:31:28 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 10 Jun 2004 23:31:28 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406110431.i5B4V8208927@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 110119 SWOMCD SPC MCD 110119 MNZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-110245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1181 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0819 PM CDT THU JUN 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN SD INTO N-CNTRL/NERN NEB CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 428...430... VALID 110119Z - 110245Z WW/S 427 AND 430 WILL BE REPLACED WITH A NEW WW WITHIN THE HOUR. AS OF 0100Z...REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC INDICATED EVOLVING QUASI-LINEAR MCS FROM NEAR MBG SWD TO E OF VTN TO NW OF BBW. WHILE LBF REFLECTIVITY LOOP SHOWS THE PRESENCE OF EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS SURGED E OF PARENT STORMS. AS STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT NEWD OUT OF NERN CO...EXPECT MCS TO BEGIN TO ACCELERATE EWD ACROSS ERN SD AND CNTRL/ERN NEB. SLY LLJ CURRENTLY STRENGTHENING FROM N-CNTRL OK NWD ACROSS CNTRL PORTIONS OF KS/NEB WILL MAINTAIN FEED OF MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR INTO SYSTEM. THIS COUPLED WITH 45-55KT SWLY MID-LEVEL JET PROPAGATING NEWD ACROSS CNTRL/ERN KS/NEB WILL PROMOTE AN ORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS/BOWS. THE POTENTIAL FOR PRIMARILY DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS. ..MEAD.. 06/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR... 41070039 45030021 44969643 41139690  From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 11 04:44:30 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 10 Jun 2004 23:44:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406110444.i5B4i6214146@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 110443 SWOMCD SPC MCD 110443 MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-110615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1182 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1143 PM CDT THU JUN 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL/SERN SD SWD INTO NERN/E-CNTRL NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 431... VALID 110443Z - 110615Z GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL REMAINS ACROSS ERN/SRN PORTIONS OF WW AREA. AS OF 0425Z...REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC INDICATED NEARLY SOLID CONVECTIVE LINE FROM SPINK COUNTY SD SWD INTO KNOX COUNTY NEB MOVING EWD AT 25-35KTS. WHILE OVERALL SYSTEM MOVEMENT IS NOT PARTICULARLY FAST...LOCAL RADARS INDICATE SMALLER-SCALE EMBEDDED BOWS WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. FARTHER S...MORE DISCRETE SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WERE OBSERVED OVER GREELEY/HOWARD AND DAWSON COUNTIES IN CNTRL/S-CNTRL NEB. LATEST MESOANALYSIS AND RUC PLAN VIEW FIELDS INDICATE THAT THE GREATEST INSTABILITY CURRENTLY EXISTS S OF WARM FRONT WHICH EXTENDED FROM INTERSECTION OF CONVECTIVE LINE N OF YKN ESEWD INTO CNTRL IA. HERE...BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS OF 65-70F ARE STILL CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. ADDITIONALLY...PROFILER/VWP NETWORKS INDICATE AXIS OF STRONGEST MID-LEVEL FLOW OF 40-50KTS FROM WRN KS INTO CNTRL NEB. THUS...IT APPEARS THAT GREATEST THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST FROM NERN INTO E-CNTRL NEB OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WHERE THE BEST COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY CO-EXIST. ..MEAD.. 06/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR... 45010026 44999617 41119638 41140030 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 11 05:09:21 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 11 Jun 2004 00:09:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406110508.i5B58v225091@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 110508 SWOMCD SPC MCD 110507 OHZ000-INZ000-MIZ000-ILZ000-110630- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1183 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1207 AM CDT FRI JUN 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CNTRL IN AND SW LOWER MI CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 432... VALID 110507Z - 110630Z THREAT FOR AN ISOLD TORNADO AND/OR WIND DAMAGE REMAINS ACROSS WW 432 /NAMELY ACROSS NRN AND CNTRL IN PORTIONS/ FOR NEXT FEW HOURS...CONTINUE WW. IND 88D VAD WIND PROFILE IN CONJUNCTION WITH SFC DATA/RUC DIAGNOSTICS SUGGESTS LARGE/LOOPED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS REMAIN ACROSS NRN/CNTRL IN...WITH 0-1 KM SRH ON THE ORDER OF 200 M2/S2. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES REMAIN CHARACTERIZED BY SUBTROPICAL AIRMASS WITH VERY HIGH PW VALUES AND SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S. GIVEN FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND SUFFICIENT CONCENTRATION OF LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY -- 0-3 KM CAPE OF 75-125 J/KG -- CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF AN ISOLD TORNADO AND/OR WIND DAMAGE EVENT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. NEVERTHELESS NOCTURNAL CYCLE AND TENDENCY FOR TSTMS TO CLUSTER SUGGESTS PROGRESSIVELY DIMINISHING THREAT INTO THE OVERNIGHT. ..GUYER.. 06/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX... 42058678 42048552 39878444 39888728 40488759 41138694 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 11 15:13:03 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 11 Jun 2004 10:13:03 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406111512.i5BFCh231012@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 111510 SWOMCD SPC MCD 111510 WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-111645- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1187 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1010 AM CDT FRI JUN 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IA...SRN MN...AND FAR SWRN WI CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE VALID 111510Z - 111645Z AN UPGRADE TO A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS PLANNED ON THE 1630Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK ACROSS NRN IA...SRN MN...AND SWRN WI. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS N-CENTRAL IA NWD INTO SRN MN DURING MID-LATE AFTERNOON...WITH SUFFICIENT CAPE/SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD INTO SWRN WI BY LATE EVENING. POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES...PARTICULARLY IN VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO EXTEND NW-SE ACROSS S-CENTRAL MN LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WARRANTS THE UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK. ADDITIONAL METEOROLOGICAL DETAILS ARE FORTHCOMING IN THE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. ..BANACOS.. 06/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD... 43339011 42529049 42559390 43309506 44739524 45429451 45189293 44549130 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 11 15:54:09 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 11 Jun 2004 10:54:09 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406111553.i5BFrj223040@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 111553 SWOMCD SPC MCD 111552 VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-111745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1188 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1052 AM CDT FRI JUN 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN IND/SRN OH/NRN KY/WV AND WRN VA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 111552Z - 111745Z A WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL EXIST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS A LINE OF STORMS MOVES ESEWD ACROSS ERN IND...SRN OH AND WV. A WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THIS REGION. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING SEWD INTO SRN OH WHERE A LINE CONVECTION IS ONGOING JUST SOUTH OF THE FRONT. SFC TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THE FRONT HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER 80S F AND MUCAPE VALUES HAVE INCREASED INTO THE 2000 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE. INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON HELPING UPDRAFTS TO INTENSIFY. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 700 MB JET OF 40 KT CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS SCNTRL IND PUNCHING EWD INTO SRN OH. THIS FEATURE IS CREATING MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 35 KT FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS. UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL PROMOTE AN INCREASING WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL AS THE LINE ORGANIZES AND MOVES ACROSS SRN OH INTO NRN WV THIS AFTERNOON. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR TO THE SOUTH ACROSS NRN KY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN A WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL ACROSS SRN WV AND WRN VA AS WELL. ..BROYLES.. 06/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND... 38417876 37957881 37347908 36847964 37228180 37898388 38598566 39098643 39828644 40068603 39918498 39648304 39288064 38917904 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 11 16:28:22 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 11 Jun 2004 11:28:22 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406111627.i5BGRx213551@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 111627 SWOMCD SPC MCD 111626 VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-111830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1188 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1126 AM CDT FRI JUN 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN IND/SRN OH/NRN KY/WV AND WRN VA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 111626Z - 111830Z A WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL EXIST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS A LINE OF STORMS MOVES ESEWD ACROSS ERN IND...SRN OH AND WV. A WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THIS REGION. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING SEWD INTO SRN OH WHERE A LINE CONVECTION IS ONGOING JUST SOUTH OF THE FRONT. SFC TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THE FRONT HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER 80S F AND MUCAPE VALUES HAVE INCREASED INTO THE 2000 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE. INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON HELPING UPDRAFTS TO INTENSIFY. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 700 MB JET OF 40 KT CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS SCNTRL IND PUNCHING EWD INTO SRN OH. THIS FEATURE IS CREATING MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 35 KT FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS. UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL PROMOTE AN INCREASING WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL AS THE LINE ORGANIZES AND MOVES ACROSS SRN OH INTO NRN WV THIS AFTERNOON. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR TO THE SOUTH ACROSS NRN KY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN A WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL ACROSS SRN WV AND WRN VA AS WELL. ..BROYLES.. 06/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND... 38417876 37957881 37347908 36847964 37228180 37898388 38598566 39098643 39828644 40068603 39918498 39648304 39288064 38917904 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 11 17:10:44 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 11 Jun 2004 12:10:44 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406111710.i5BHAL208263@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 111709 SWOMCD SPC MCD 111709 SDZ000-NDZ000-111915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1189 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1209 PM CDT FRI JUN 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL ND AND N-CENTRAL SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 111709Z - 111915Z CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL ND SWD INTO NRN SD DURING 19-21Z PERIOD. LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED DURING THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS. HEIGHT FALLS SUGGEST MID-LEVEL COLD POOL /-17C AT 500MB/ ACROSS SWRN SD AT 12Z WILL SHIFT NEWD INTO CENTRAL ND DURING THE MAX SURFACE HEATING PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MID 70S COUPLED WITH COOLING ALOFT WILL MINIMIZE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...AND ALLOW FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG EWD MOVING SURFACE COLD FRONT...LIKELY DURING MID-AFTERNOON HOURS. AT 16Z...THE FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE PARENT CYCLONE NEAR ISN...SWD TO 30E DIK TO 20E PHP. ANTICIPATE MLCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG BY 20Z WITH DEVELOPING ARCING LINE OF CONVECTION...AND PERHAPS LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS FROM CENTRAL ND SWD INTO NRN SD IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT. WBZ HEIGHTS OF 7-8 KFT SUGGEST LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL...PARTICULARLY WITH ANY ROTATING CELLS. SOME LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND IS POSSIBLE WITH STRONG DOWNDRAFTS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO MAY OCCUR...HOWEVER...UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW EVIDENT ON BIS VAD AND MODERATE SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS SHOULD MINIMIZE THREAT. ..BANACOS.. 06/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR... 46110156 47090213 47890275 48440254 48920195 48930025 48919877 45259777 44689864 44820119 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 11 17:57:59 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 11 Jun 2004 12:57:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406111757.i5BHva204147@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 111756 SWOMCD SPC MCD 111755 IAZ000-MNZ000-112030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1190 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1255 PM CDT FRI JUN 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MN AND NRN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 111755Z - 112030Z SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ALONG WARM FRONT IN NRN IA/SRN MN DURING NEXT 1-2 HOURS. TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED SOON. 17Z SURFACE MESOANALYSIS INDICATES A 1000MB SUB-SYNOPTIC LOW CENTERED 25 SE SUX...WITH A WARM FRONT BULGING NWD ACROSS NWRN IA AND THEN ESEWD INTO E-CENTRAL IA. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE WARM FRONT IS MOVING RAPIDLY NWD ACROSS NWRN IA AND WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO SWRN MN DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. WARM SECTOR SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S ARE CONTRIBUTING TO VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS WRN IA WITH 100MB MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500-3000 J/KG. DESTABILIZATION SHOULD RAPIDLY ADVANCE NWD INTO SWRN/SRN MN WITH PROGRESSION OF THE WARM FRONT. CAPPING INVERSION WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN ACROSS NWRN IA/SWRN MN DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS AS COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST AND NOSE OF ELEVATED MIXED-LAYER SHIFTS EWD. RAPID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS...IS ANTICIPATED ALONG THE MN/IA BORDER THROUGH 21Z. BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND LOW LCL HEIGHTS ALONG AND NORTH OF WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY ENHANCED THREAT OF TORNADOES WITH SUPERCELLS ACROSS SRN MN AND FAR NRN IA BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED. ..BANACOS.. 06/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD... 43289605 44839604 45109541 44849374 44609267 43489195 42549214 42239376 42269544 42499586 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 11 20:05:37 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 11 Jun 2004 15:05:37 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406112005.i5BK5E216371@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 112003 SWOMCD SPC MCD 112003 IAZ000-MNZ000-112130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1191 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0303 PM CDT FRI JUN 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IA AND SRN MN CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 436... VALID 112003Z - 112130Z CONTINUE TORNADO WATCH 436 IN NRN IA/SRN MN. AT 1940Z...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE WRN PORTION OF THE WW 436 AREA...FROM 20 W RWF TO 25 SW SPW. DEVELOPMENT IS GENERALLY NEAR THE SUB-SYNOPTIC LOW OVER NWRN IA...AND N-S ORIENTED SURFACE TROUGH/OCCLUSION FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVERGENCE ACROSS SWRN MN INTO WRN IA. MOST SIGNIFICANT STORM IS THE SUPERCELL NEAR CLAY AND PALO ALTO COUNTY BORDER IN NWRN IA...ANCHORED ALONG SURFACE WARM FRONT WHICH EXTENDS EWD ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF IA. ADDITIONAL SUPERCELLS WERE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT JUST TO THE WEST OF THIS INITIAL STORM. AIR MASS IS EXTREMELY UNSTABLE ALONG THE FRONT...WITH 100MB MLCAPE AROUND 3000 J/KG. LOCALLY BACKED SURFACE WINDS ARE CONTRIBUTING TO 0-1KM SRH OF 100-150 M2/S2 ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. COMBINED WITH LOW LCL HEIGHTS...A FOCUSED THREAT OF TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE WARM FRONT IN NWRN/N-CENTRAL IA DURING AT LEAST THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS...WITH BOUNDARY GRADUALLY LIFTING TOWARD THE MN/IA BORDER. AS FRONT LIFTS NWD AND CIN DIMINISHES IN SRN MN...TORNADO THREAT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE NRN PORTION OF THE WW AREA. ..BANACOS.. 06/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD... 42289181 42279491 44539597 44509267 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 11 20:20:37 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 11 Jun 2004 15:20:37 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406112020.i5BKKE224978@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 112017 SWOMCD SPC MCD 112016 VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-KYZ000-112145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1192 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0316 PM CDT FRI JUN 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WV AND VA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 434... VALID 112016Z - 112145Z THE CONVECTIVE LINE MOVING INTO WV WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A WIND DAMAGE THREAT. ALSO...AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT MAY EXIST WITH ROTATING CELLS AHEAD OF THE LINE. WW 434 WILL BE REPLACED WITH ANOTHER WW SHORTLY EXTENDING EAST ACROSS VA. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS CURRENTLY PRESENT ACROSS KY...WV AND VA SOUTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT. THE ONGOING CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE SUSTAINED BY THE INSTABILITY AS IT MOVES ESEWD. THE ACTIVITY IS IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A 50 KT MID-LEVEL JET MOVING ACROSS NRN VA. THIS IS ENHANCING SHEAR AND LIFT WHICH IN TURN SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STRONG CONVECTION THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WIND DAMAGE SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT CONSIDERING THE WIND PROFILES ARE UNIDIRECTIONAL. HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT MAY ALSO EXIST WITH CELLS THAT ROTATE IN THE STRONGER INSTABILITY SOUTH OF THE FRONT. ..BROYLES.. 06/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...RLX...JKL... 37498218 37828242 38238234 38538176 38578065 38347857 38167724 37667592 36827603 36557678 36807911 37228153  From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 11 20:27:04 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 11 Jun 2004 15:27:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406112026.i5BKQf228527@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 112021 SWOMCD SPC MCD 112021 NDZ000-SDZ000-112215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1193 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0321 PM CDT FRI JUN 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 435... VALID 112021Z - 112215Z CONTINUE WW. COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN ASSOCIATION WITH VORT MAX AND MID-LEVEL COLD POOL EVIDENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR BIS. MODERATE INSTABILITY...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND LOW WBZ HEIGHTS OF 7-8 KFT SUGGEST THAT THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL CONTINUES ACROSS THE WW AREA WITH STRONGER REFLECTIVITY/VIL CORES. ACTIVITY ACROSS SRN/SWRN ND WILL LIFT GENERALLY NNEWD INTO N-CENTRAL ND THROUGH EARLY EVENING. STORM INTENSITY SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH PEAK BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING. ..BANACOS.. 06/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR... 45909811 45930232 48980300 48999863 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 11 21:57:30 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 11 Jun 2004 16:57:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406112157.i5BLvH215256@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 112156 SWOMCD SPC MCD 112155 IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-112330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1194 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0455 PM CDT FRI JUN 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CNTRL IA SWWD INTO NWRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 112155Z - 112330Z TSTM POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE INCREASING AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. AS OF 2145Z...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED DEEPENING CUMULUS FIELD ALONG PRESSURE TROUGH THAT EXTENDED FROM A SURFACE LOW SE OF SPW SWD TO ROUGHLY 35E OF OMA TO NEAR FNB. TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S AND RATHER STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7-8 C/KM ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG E OF TROUGH WITH LITTLE OR NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. THOUGH STRONGEST LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH VORTICITY MAX OVER ERN SD/N-CNTRL AND NERN NEB IS FORECAST TO LIFT N OF THE AREA...LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE ALONG TROUGH MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE DEEP CONVECTION. IF STORMS CAN BECOME ESTABLISHED...CURRENT SLATER IA PROFILER INDICATES SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. THOUGH LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE FAVORABLY LOW LFC/LCL HEIGHTS. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AND A WW MAY BE REQUIRED. ..MEAD.. 06/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP... 42249499 42289249 39479385 39599615 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 11 22:17:43 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 11 Jun 2004 17:17:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406112217.i5BMHK226984@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 112216 SWOMCD SPC MCD 112216 IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-112345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1195 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0516 PM CDT FRI JUN 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/NWRN TX INTO FAR SWRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 112216Z - 112345Z TSTM POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA. IF STORMS CAN BECOME ESTABLISHED...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. AS 2205Z....VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED ENHANCED FIELD OF TCU FROM WILBARGER/BAYLOR COUNTIES SWWD INTO KENT/FISHER/SCURRY COUNTIES OF WRN TX. THIS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING E OF WEAK DRYLINE/PRESSURE TROUGH WHICH EXTENDED FROM W OF FSI SWWD TO E OF MAF AS OF 22Z. AIRMASS E OF THIS FEATURE HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES OF 2500-3000 J/KG AND LITTLE OR NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. THOUGH LARGE-SCALE FORCING REMAINS WEAK ACROSS THE REGION...CONTINUED STRONG HEATING COUPLED WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG DRYLINE/PRESSURE TROUGH MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE ISOLATED STORMS WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. CURRENT JAYTON TX PROFILER INDICATES MODEST MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS BOUNDARY WITH 30-35KTS IN THE 5-7KM LAYER. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...ORGANIZED MULTICELLS OR SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS. ..MEAD.. 06/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF... 42249499 42289249 39479385 39599615 32110219 34729991 34809777 32140000 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 11 22:19:57 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 11 Jun 2004 17:19:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406112219.i5BMJc228161@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 112219 SWOMCD SPC MCD 112218 OKZ000-TXZ000-112345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1195 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0518 PM CDT FRI JUN 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/NWRN TX INTO FAR SWRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 112218Z - 112345Z TSTM POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA. IF STORMS CAN BECOME ESTABLISHED...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. AS 2205Z....VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED ENHANCED FIELD OF TCU FROM WILBARGER/BAYLOR COUNTIES SWWD INTO KENT/FISHER/SCURRY COUNTIES OF WRN TX. THIS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING E OF WEAK DRYLINE/PRESSURE TROUGH WHICH EXTENDED FROM W OF FSI SWWD TO E OF MAF AS OF 22Z. AIRMASS E OF THIS FEATURE HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES OF 2500-3000 J/KG AND LITTLE OR NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. THOUGH LARGE-SCALE FORCING REMAINS WEAK ACROSS THE REGION...CONTINUED STRONG HEATING COUPLED WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG DRYLINE/PRESSURE TROUGH MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE ISOLATED STORMS WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. CURRENT JAYTON TX PROFILER INDICATES MODEST MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS BOUNDARY WITH 30-35KTS IN THE 5-7KM LAYER. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...ORGANIZED MULTICELLS OR SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS. ..MEAD.. 06/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF... 32110219 34729991 34809777 32140000 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 11 22:43:57 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 11 Jun 2004 17:43:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406112243.i5BMhZ208185@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 112242 SWOMCD SPC MCD 112242 KSZ000-OKZ000-120015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1196 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0542 PM CDT FRI JUN 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL/SERN KS INTO N-CNTRL OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 112242Z - 120015Z TSTM POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED. AS OF 2230Z...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED DEEPENING LINE OF CUMULUS FROM COWLEY/SUMNER COUNTIES IN S-CNTRL KS SWWD INTO BLAINE AND KINGFISHER COUNTIES IN N-CNTRL/CNTRL OK. THIS DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY OCCURRING WITHIN ZONE OF SUSTAINED CONVERGENCE ALONG DIFFUSE DRYLINE/PRESSURE TROUGH WHICH EXTENDED FROM NEAR ICT SWWD TO E OF CSM AS OF 22Z. STRONG DIABATIC HEATING COUPLED WITH AXIS OF 70-75F DEWPOINTS ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPES OF 2500-3500 J/KG EARLY THIS EVENING WITH LITTLE OR NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP...LOCAL PROFILERS AND VWPS INDICATE SUFFICIENTLY STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AND A WW MAY BE REQUIRED. ..MEAD.. 06/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN... 35589859 37879689 37919533 35599693 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 11 22:58:55 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 11 Jun 2004 17:58:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406112258.i5BMwc215729@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 112257 SWOMCD SPC MCD 112256 INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-120030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1197 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0556 PM CDT FRI JUN 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SRN WI/NRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 112256Z - 120030Z POTENTIAL FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS AREA AND A WW MAY BE REQUIRED. AS OF 2247Z...REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC INDICATED TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER STEPHENSON AND JO DAVIESS COUNTIES IN FAR NWRN IL AS WELL AS LAFAYETTE COUNTY IN FAR SWRN WI. LATEST MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT THESE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING INVOF WARM FRONT WHICH EXTENDED FROM N OF DBQ TO NEAR RFD TO SW OF CGX. LOCAL DEWPOINTS OF 70-75F AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG AND JUST TO THE N OF WARM FRONT WITH MLCAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG. MOREOVER...BACKED NEAR SURFACE WINDS COUPLED WITH 30-35KT SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW IS RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. GREATEST TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST ALONG AND JUST N OF RETREATING WARM FRONT WHERE 0-1KM SRH VALUES OF 100-200 M2/S2 ARE CO-LOCATED WITH FAVORABLY LOW LCL HEIGHTS OF 600-800M. A WW MAY BE REQUIRED SHORTLY. ..MEAD.. 06/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX... 43109087 41579041 40548736 42228783 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 11 23:04:57 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 11 Jun 2004 18:04:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406112304.i5BN4Z218478@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 112303 SWOMCD SPC MCD 112302 VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-120100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1198 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0602 PM CDT FRI JUN 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KY...SRN/SWRN VA...NRN NC...FAR NERN TN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 437... VALID 112302Z - 120100Z CONTINUE WW. AT 2250Z...LEADING ARC OF STRONG TO EMBEDDED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED FROM RIC WSWWD INTO FAR SWRN VA AND FAR ERN KY. STRONG COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STORMS AND 30KT NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN SEWD MOTION OF LINE ACROSS FAR SRN VA INTO FAR NRN NC DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVING INLAND ACROSS FAR ERN/SERN VA WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE ERN EXTENT OF THE SEVERE THREAT OWING TO MORE STABLE MARINE AIR. WEST OF THIS BOUNDARY...MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL BE MAINTAINED DURING NEXT 1-3 HOURS PRIOR TO BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING AND STABILIZATION. AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY EXTEND INTO FAR NRN NC LATER THIS EVENING...HOWEVER...OVERALL INTENSITY OF CONVECTIVE SYSTEM SHOULD DECREASE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND ADDITIONAL WW MAY NOT BE NEEDED. REGION SOUTH OF ONGOING ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. IN THE MEANTIME...THREAT OF LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WITH STRONGER CORES IS EXPECTED ACROSS SRN VA WWD INTO FAR ERN KY...WITH LINE MOTION GENERALLY 315/30 KT. ..BANACOS.. 06/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL... 35777729 35537969 35758169 36878335 37708316 37898156 37977922 37917769 37007694 36207687 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 11 23:26:57 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 11 Jun 2004 18:26:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406112326.i5BNQc229881@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 112326 SWOMCD SPC MCD 112325 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-120100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1199 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0625 PM CDT FRI JUN 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND INTO NWRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 112325Z - 120100Z ONGOING TSTMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. A NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED. AS OF 2310Z...LEADING EDGE OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS STRETCHED FROM LAMOURE/STUTSMAN COUNTIES NWWD INTO BENSON AND PIERCE COUNTIES. FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF VORTICITY MAX OVER CNTRL ND COUPLED WITH STEEP...LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE PRIMARILY DRIVING ONGOING STORMS. POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AHEAD OF VORTICITY MAX ACROSS FAR ERN ND...AND POSSIBLY INTO NWRN MN THROUGH 02 OR 03Z. A NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED. ..MEAD.. 06/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS... 45959869 48989892 49009643 45939626 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 12 00:59:29 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 11 Jun 2004 19:59:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406120059.i5C0x7209573@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 120058 SWOMCD SPC MCD 120057 WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-120230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1200 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0757 PM CDT FRI JUN 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN MN/NRN IA INTO WRN WI CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 438... VALID 120057Z - 120230Z GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES REMAINS ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF WW 438. AS OF 0038Z...REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC INDICATED LEADING EDGE OF EVOLVING MCS FROM BARRON/POLK COUNTIES IN W-CNTRL WI SWD THROUGH FILLMORE COUNTY MN AND INTO WEBSTER COUNTY IA. THE ANCHOR STORM OVER WEBSTER COUNTY IS EXHIBITING STRONG MID-LEVEL ROTATION AS IS A STORM OVER OLMSTED COUNTY IN FAR SERN MN...WHERE CONVECTIVE LINE IS INTERSECTING WARM FRONT. AIRMASS AHEAD OF PRESSURE TROUGH OVER WRN IA AND S OF WARM FRONT /EXTENDING FROM S OF RST TO E OF DBQ/ REMAINS MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE THIS EVENING WITH MLCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG. WHILE LFC/LCL HEIGHTS REMAIN FAVORABLY LOW ACROSS MUCH OF WARM SECTOR AIRMASS...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS FIELDS INDICATE THE STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR INVOF WARM FRONT OVER NERN IA. THUS...ISOLATED TORNADOES REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH ONGOING SUPERCELL OVER WEBSTER COUNTY...AS WELL AS ANY STORMS THAT CAN REALIZE ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL BUOYANCY/SHEAR ALONG/N OF WARM FRONT. FARTHER N...00Z MPX SOUNDING INDICATED STABLE NEAR GROUND LAYER WITH WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS FOR ELEVATED PARCELS. EXPECT STRONGEST STORMS TO POSE MAINLY A LARGE HAIL THREAT AS THEY PROGRESS EWD ACROSS W-CNTRL INTO CNTRL WI. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AND A NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED E OF WW 438 ..MEAD.. 06/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DVN...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX...FGF...FSD...ABR... 45799649 45789001 43188947 43189094 42269060 42249490 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 12 01:00:07 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 11 Jun 2004 20:00:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406120059.i5C0xi210286@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 120059 SWOMCD SPC MCD 120058 KSZ000-MOZ000-120300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1201 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0758 PM CDT FRI JUN 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 120058Z - 120300Z ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ACROSS ERN SECTIONS OF KS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. REGION WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. AT 0045Z...ISOLATED TOWERING CU WERE NOTED 15-20N EMP...IN VICINITY OF LARGE-SCALE SURFACE TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL IA SSWWD ACROSS ERN KS. AIR MASS ACROSS FAR ERN KS...EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE...IS EXTREMELY MOIST WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S WITHIN TOP-MCI CORRIDOR. THE 00Z TOP SOUNDING INDICATED THAT THE AREA IS UNCAPPED...WITH VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WHILE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS NOT FORECAST TO BE STRONG...SURFACE CONVERGENCE COMBINED WITH SLIGHT MID-LEVEL COOLING PROGGED ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUSTAIN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS EXISTS ACROSS ERN KS. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. ..BANACOS.. 06/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT... 38749670 39489620 39919539 39809507 39079470 38709467 38209471 37849495 37759604 37899659 38129680 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 12 01:20:04 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 11 Jun 2004 20:20:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406120119.i5C1Jl219552@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 120118 SWOMCD SPC MCD 120117 OKZ000-TXZ000-120245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1202 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0817 PM CDT FRI JUN 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SWRN OK INTO NWRN/WRN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 439... VALID 120117Z - 120245Z GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY LARGE HAIL AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL EXIST ACROSS CNTRL AND SRN PORTIONS OF WW AREA FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. AS OF 0105Z...ABILENE/DYESS AFB VOLUMETRIC RADAR DATA INDICATED CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES OVER STONEWALL/HASKELL AND MITCHELL COUNTIES IN TX. PROPAGATION HAS LARGELY GOVERNED STORM MOTIONS ACROSS THIS AREA...RESULTING IN LITTLE OVERALL MOVEMENT OF COMPLEX. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF EMBEDDED MESOCYCLONES...LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN A DISTINCT THREAT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...QUASI-STATIONARY CHARACTER OF COMPLEX INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. STORMS SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS BOUNDARY-LAYER CONTINUES TO COOL AND STABILIZE. ..MEAD.. 06/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF... 34819975 34799781 31850015 31850205  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 12 01:58:22 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 11 Jun 2004 20:58:22 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406120158.i5C1w0204093@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 120157 SWOMCD SPC MCD 120156 NCZ000-VAZ000-120330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1203 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0856 PM CDT FRI JUN 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 442... VALID 120156Z - 120330Z LINE OF STRONG-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SEWD AROUND 40 KTS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SEVERE THREAT MAY PERSIST FOR A ROW OR TWO COUNTIES SOUTH OF WW 442...BUT LIMITED DURATION OF THE THREAT DUE TO CONTINUED LOSS OF HEATING SHOULD PRECLUDE ANOTHER WW IN THIS AREA. LATEST VWP DATA FROM BLACKSBURG VA INDICATES A 40 KT NWLY LOW LEVEL JET WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO AID IN ENHANCED CONVERGENCE MAINTAINING CONVECTIVE LINE AND INDIVIDUAL BOWING SEGMENTS AS THEY MOVE SEWD AROUND 40 KTS INTO PARTS OF ERN NC. SLOWLY INCREASING CINH WILL ALLOW FOR A GENERAL DECREASE IN DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH THIS LINE AS IT MOVES SOUTH OF WW 442 IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. ADDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT WILL PERSIST AHEAD OF THIS LINE AS AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL MOVES SEWD ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER NERN NC. THIS CELL WILL HAVE SOME ATTENDANT THREAT FOR A TORNADO GIVEN ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. BUT AS WITH THE CONVECTIVE LINE...THE TORNADO/SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS STORM SHOULD DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE ALBEMARLE SOUND BY 03Z WHERE THERE WERE COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES. ..CROSBIE.. 06/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH... 35637953 35847937 35907843 36117819 36567792 36507594 35117623 34917808 35057954 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 12 02:30:45 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 11 Jun 2004 21:30:45 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406120230.i5C2UN219527@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 120229 SWOMCD SPC MCD 120229 MNZ000-NDZ000-120400- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1204 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0929 PM CDT FRI JUN 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND INTO NWRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 441... VALID 120229Z - 120400Z ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH MOST INTENSE STORMS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. LATEST RADAR MOSAIC LOOP SUGGESTS THAT BAND OF TSTMS FROM CAVALIER/PEMBINA COUNTIES SEWD INTO CLAY COUNTY MN HAVE WEAKENING OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR AS THEY MOVE/DEVELOP NEWD AT 35-40KTS. THOUGH FARGO/GRAND FORKS VWP CONTINUES TO INDICATE FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES FOR ORGANIZED TSTMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT STABILIZATION OF BOUNDARY LAYER HAS GREATLY REDUCED AIRMASS INSTABILITY. POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...HOWEVER A NEW WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM DOWNSTREAM OVER N-CNTRL MN. ..MEAD.. 06/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS... 48960059 48989726 45949522 45959838 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 12 03:07:21 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 11 Jun 2004 22:07:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406120306.i5C36x202110@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 120304 SWOMCD SPC MCD 120304 ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-120400- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1205 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1004 PM CDT FRI JUN 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN WI/NRN IL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 440... VALID 120304Z - 120400Z POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES STILL EXISTS ALONG WARM FRONT. CONTINUE WW. CHICAGO RADAR IMAGERY HAS INDICATED A GRADUAL INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE PAST HOUR OVER PORTIONS OVER NRN IL...LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRENGTHENING WAA REGIME EVIDENT IN REGIONAL VWPS. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING NEAR SURFACE WARM FRONT WHICH EXTENDED FROM NEAR DBQ TO S OF RFD TO N OF LAF AS OF 02Z. RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS S OF WARM FRONT STILL INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH MLCAPES OF 2000-2500 J/KG. ADDITIONALLY...KINEMATIC FIELDS REMAIN QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH 35-45KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND 100-250 M2/S2 0-1KM SRH...RESPECTIVELY. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AND A REPLACEMENT WW MAY BE NECESSARY AT 04Z. ..MEAD.. 06/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX... 43169088 43178874 41178789 41169005 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 12 03:52:31 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 11 Jun 2004 22:52:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406120352.i5C3q8221708@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 120351 SWOMCD SPC MCD 120350 TXZ000-120515- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1206 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1050 PM CDT FRI JUN 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/NWRN TX CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 439... VALID 120350Z - 120515Z ISOLATED SUPERCELL OVER NOLAN/COKE COUNTY BORDER SHOULD DIMINISH IN INTENSITY BY AROUND 05Z. ADDITIONAL STORMS IN THE ABI VICINITY WILL CONTINUE TO POSE SOME THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER A NEW WW WILL NOT BE ISSUED. AN ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WILL PERSIST...WITH HOURLY RAINFALL RATES FROM 1-2 INCHES NEAR AND JUST NORTH OF 1-20 FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. RECENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A NEARLY STATIONARY SUPERCELL OVER THE JONES/MITCHELL/COKE COUNTY BORDER. INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET SAMPLED BY REGIONAL VWP/S WILL LIKELY AID IN MAINTAINING CONVERGENCE INTO THIS STORM AN OFFSETTING INCREASING CINH AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE CLUSTER TO THE NORTH OF ABI SHOULD ALSO MAINTAIN IT/S PRESENT STRENGTH FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...GIVEN THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET AND MODEST COLD POOL THAT HAS DEVELOPED BEHIND THE CONVECTION. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT ATOP OF THE COLD POOL OVER NWRN TX WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH AN ATTENDANT ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL THREAT. ADDITIONALLY...SLOW STORM MOTIONS WITH THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BECOMING ORIENTED MORE PARALLEL TO THE MEAN SHEAR VECTOR ALONG WITH THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD ALLOW FOR A HEAVY RAIN THREAT ALONG/JUST NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR THROUGH 06Z. ..CROSBIE.. 06/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF... 31860165 32770101 33849982 33839856 33149860 31969916 31550030 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 12 03:55:26 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 11 Jun 2004 22:55:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406120355.i5C3t4223062@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 120354 SWOMCD SPC MCD 120354 TXZ000-120530- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1207 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1054 PM CDT FRI JUN 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/NWRN TX CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 439... VALID 120354Z - 120530Z ISOLATED SUPERCELL OVER NOLAN/COKE COUNTY BORDER SHOULD DIMINISH IN INTENSITY BY AROUND 05Z. ADDITIONAL STORMS IN THE ABI VICINITY WILL CONTINUE TO POSE SOME THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER A NEW WW WILL NOT BE ISSUED. AN ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WILL PERSIST...WITH HOURLY RAINFALL RATES FROM 1-2 INCHES NEAR AND JUST NORTH OF 1-20 FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. RECENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A NEARLY STATIONARY SUPERCELL OVER THE JONES/MITCHELL/COKE COUNTY BORDER. INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET SAMPLED BY REGIONAL VWP/S WILL LIKELY AID IN MAINTAINING CONVERGENCE INTO THIS STORM AN OFFSETTING INCREASING CINH AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE CLUSTER TO THE NORTH OF ABI SHOULD ALSO MAINTAIN IT/S PRESENT STRENGTH FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...GIVEN THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET AND MODEST COLD POOL THAT HAS DEVELOPED BEHIND THE CONVECTION. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT ATOP OF THE COLD POOL OVER NWRN TX WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH AN ATTENDANT ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL THREAT. ADDITIONALLY...SLOW STORM MOTIONS WITH THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BECOMING ORIENTED MORE PARALLEL TO THE MEAN SHEAR VECTOR ALONG WITH THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD ALLOW FOR A HEAVY RAIN THREAT ALONG/JUST NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR THROUGH 06Z. ..CROSBIE.. 06/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF... 31860165 32770101 33849982 33839856 33149860 31969916 31550030 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 12 04:36:24 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 11 Jun 2004 23:36:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406120436.i5C4a8210079@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 120435 SWOMCD SPC MCD 120434 MOZ000-KSZ000-120630- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1208 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1134 PM CDT FRI JUN 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN MO CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 120434Z - 120630Z POTENTIAL FOR HOURLY RAIN RATES APPROACHING 2-3 INCHES/HOUR WILL EXIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF NWRN MO FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. LARGE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER NWRN MO/FAR NERN KS HAS BECOME ORIENTED MORE LATITUDINALLY OVER THE PAST HOUR WITH LEADING EDGE OF COMPLEX FROM 30SE P35 TO 20SE STJ TO JUST E OF TOP. AT THE SAME TIME...REGIONAL PLAN VIEW VWP/PROFILER NETWORKS INDICATE THAT SWLY LLJ HAS INTENSIFIED TO 30-35KTS FROM CNTRL/ERN OK NEWD ACROSS ERN KS INTO NWRN MO. RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM INFLOW REGION OF SYSTEM INDICATE PRESENCE OF MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH MLCAPES OF 2500-3500 J/KG. THOUGH CONVECTIVE INHIBITION REMAINS STRONG WITHIN THIS INFLOW REGION...STRONG ASCENT ALONG LLJ AXIS OVER LEADING EDGE OF COLD POOL IS LIKELY ALLOWING COMPLEX TO UTILIZE A GOOD SHARE OF THIS INSTABILITY. OVERALL SYSTEM MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE EWD OR SEWD...HOWEVER WIND PROFILES SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR UPSTREAM/BACKBUILDING DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING AND/OR SLOW MOVING STORMS...LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS LIKELY ALONG SYSTEM TRACK WITH HOURLY RAIN RATES APPROACHING 2-3 INCHES/HOUR. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAIN...SOME OF THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY. ..MEAD.. 06/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP... 39349536 39849487 40189392 40029310 39469306 39129380 38939479 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 12 15:31:34 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 12 Jun 2004 10:31:34 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406121531.i5CFVH200748@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 121530 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121530 MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-IAZ000-121730- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1212 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1030 AM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SE NEB/ERN KS/SRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 121530Z - 121730Z ELEVATED CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS ERN KS...SE NEB AND SRN MO WILL GRADUALLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE STORMS WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...THE TORNADO THREAT WILL INCREASE. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND DRYLINE FROM SE NEB EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS WRN KS WITH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING SEWD ACROSS ERN KS INTO SRN AND ERN MO. A MOIST AXIS EXTENDS NWD THROUGH ERN KS WHERE MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IS ALREADY PRESENT WITH THE 12Z TOP SOUNDING SHOWING 3500 J/KG OF MLCAPE. ALTHOUGH THE ONGOING CONVECTION IS ELEVATED ATTM....SFC-BASED CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP AS THE INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO INCREASE. THE INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 8.0 C/KM WILL RESULT IN SUPERCELLS WITH A LARGE HAIL THREAT. AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...EXTREME INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP WITH MLCAPE REACHING 4500 TO 5500 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF ERN KS AND VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER SUPERCELLS. IN ADDITION...THE 35 KT LOW-LEVEL JET CURRENTLY OVER WRN OK IS FORECAST TO SHIFT NEWD INTO ERN KS WHERE SFC WIND ARE BACKED. THIS WILL CREATE STRONGLY VEERED LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES WHICH WILL COINCIDE WITH THE INCREASING INSTABILITY...RESULTING IN A TORNADO THREAT DEVELOPING ACROSS ERN KS AND SW MO THIS AFTERNOON. ..BROYLES.. 06/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID... 38229196 37919157 37669122 37219140 36869266 37099476 38009646 38789720 39919768 40489766 40999692 41099620 40669546 39649486 38959369 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 12 15:50:32 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 12 Jun 2004 10:50:32 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406121550.i5CFoD210322@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 121549 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121548 KYZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-121815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1213 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1048 AM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IND...KY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 121548Z - 121815Z THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS SRN IND AND MUCH OF KY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LONG-LIVED THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS CONTINUE ALONG AND NEAR ELONGATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM S-CENTRAL OH WSWWD ALONG THE OHIO RIVER INTO SRN MO. AIR MASS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ACROSS FAR SRN IND AND MUCH OF KY. DAYTIME HEATING AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO 100MB MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-2500 J/KG AS OF 15Z...AND CIN IS MINIMAL. WSWLY SFC-6KM SHEAR OF 20-30 KT PER LOUISVILLE VAD AND REGIONAL ETA FORECAST SOUNDINGS THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY FAVOR CONTINUATION OF MULTICELLULAR STORM CLUSTERS...WITH REGENERATION OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG LEADING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. IF STRONGER COLD POOLS CAN DEVELOP...STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS. OTHERWISE...EMBEDDED STRONG CORES WILL POSE A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL ACROSS FAR SRN IND AND MUCH OF KY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IF STORM ORGANIZATION AND INTENSITY CONTINUES TO INCREASE...WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. ..BANACOS.. 06/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH... 37578843 38408767 38938649 39028557 39128440 38718385 38038274 37248278 36918375 37008552 36838756 36808877 36918901 37278883 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 12 16:40:42 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 12 Jun 2004 11:40:42 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406121640.i5CGeV201921@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 121639 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121638 KYZ000-MOZ000-TNZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-121845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1214 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1138 AM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AR...SRN MO...FAR NE OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 121638Z - 121845Z SCATTERED STORMS ONGOING ACROSS NRN AR AND SRN MO WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. FARTHER WEST ACROSS NE OK...NEW DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR BY MID-AFTERNOON WITH LARGE HAIL PROBABLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING SLOWLY SWD ACROSS SRN MO. MODERATE INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS AR AND NE OK WHERE MLCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 1500 TO 2500 J/KG. A BAND OF PVA IS CAUSING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACROSS WRN AR AND NE OK ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX. THIS LIFT COMBINED WITH THE INCREASING INSTABILITY...WILL PROMOTE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER SHEAR ENHANCED BY THE MID-LEVEL JET OF ABOUT 35 KT WILL SUPPORT SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM 6.5 TO 7.0 C/KM SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS. IN ADDITION...THE UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WILL PROMOTE A WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL. ..BROYLES.. 06/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...TSA... 36719266 36919116 37168999 37028946 36378950 35938975 35439072 35219323 35439470 36039552 36439570 36909535 36789389 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 12 17:44:42 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 12 Jun 2004 12:44:42 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406121744.i5CHiN231377@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 121743 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121743 IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-121915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1215 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1243 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NEB...SWRN IA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 446... VALID 121743Z - 121915Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A MESO-SCALE LOW HAS DEVELOPED ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NOW MOVING ACROSS SERN NEB. THIS IS ENHANCING SHEAR AND CONVERGENCE EWD INTO SWRN IA. EXTREME INSTABILITY IS FEEDING INTO THE DEVELOPING TORNADIC SUPERCELLS FROM SAUNDERS SWD TO GAGE COUNTIES. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING 260/25-30 AND WILL REACH THE MO RIVER AROUND 18Z VICINITY OF OMA AND 19Z NEAR MO/IA BORDER. TORNADOS HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN THE SAUNDERS COUNTY SUPERCELL AND ARE LIKELY WITH THE GAGE COUNTY STORM. CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR A POSSIBLE LARGE...DAMAGING TORNADO AS ACTIVITY MOVES INTO SWRN IA. ..HALES.. 06/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX... 40939633 41919638 42129561 42079501 41929464 41589455 41319465 40629505 40219534 40159577 40279666 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 12 18:00:36 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 12 Jun 2004 13:00:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406121800.i5CI0H206979@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 121759 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121759 TNZ000-NCZ000-KYZ000-122030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1216 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1259 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...TN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 121759Z - 122030Z ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS MIDDLE AND ERN TN. ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS KY MAY SETTLE SWD INTO NRN TN BY LATE AFTERNOON. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED SOON. MOIST AND UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR WILL PERSIST THROUGH MAX HEATING PERIOD ACROSS MIDDLE/ERN TN...WHERE 100MB MLCAPE VALUES HAVE INCREASED TO 2000-2500 J/KG WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S. MINIMAL CIN HAS ALLOWED FOR ISOLATED AIRMASS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MIDDLE/ERN TN...WITH MOVEMENT GENERALLY ENEWD AT 15-20 KT. PULSE CHARACTERISTICS ARE LIKELY WITH STORMS ACROSS THE AREA GIVEN AMPLE INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL SFC-6KM SHEAR OF 20-25 KT. EAST-WEST ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS SRN KY SHOULD PROPAGATE SLOWLY SWD ALLOWING FOR GREATER COVERAGE OF STORMS ACROSS NRN TN DURING NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY ALSO FAVOR STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NWRN TN DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. ..BANACOS.. 06/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG... 36628586 36468267 35988287 35728327 35438394 35258433 35048475 35298852 35478975 36418916 36668697 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 12 18:14:25 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 12 Jun 2004 13:14:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406121814.i5CIE2212731@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 121812 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121812 KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-122015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1217 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0112 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...OK...SRN KS AND NW TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 121812Z - 122015Z STORM INITIATION IS EXPECTED BY 21Z EAST OF THE DRYLINE ACROSS OK...SRN KS AND NW TX. TORNADIC SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED BY MID-AFTERNOON. SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A LOW ACROSS WCNTRL KS WITH A DRYLINE EXTENDING SSWWD INTO THE ERN TX PANHANDLE. EAST OF THE DRYLINE...SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S F WHERE MLCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 3000 TO 4000 J/KG. A STRONG VORTICITY MAX CURRENTLY EXISTS ACROSS SW KS AND AS THIS FEATURE MOVES EWD...INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD HELP THE CAPPING INVERSION TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN. RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONFIRM THIS AND THE WEAKENING CAP COMBINED WITH THE EXTREME INSTABILITY BY 21Z SHOULD RESULT IN EXPLOSIVE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FIRST ACROSS SCNTRL KS AND THEN FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS OK AND NW TX. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 25 TO 35 KT ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION WHICH GIVEN THE EXTREME INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. THE SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET OF 30 KT ACROSS OK AND SRN KS IS CREATING STRONGLY VEERED LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES. AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE LOW-LEVEL VEERING WILL BECOME ENHANCED AND A FEW STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE BACKED SFC FLOW OVER NRN OK...SRN KS AND CNTRL KS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE SUPERCELLS CONSIDERING THE STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PLACE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS HAVING A POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL. ..BROYLES.. 06/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...FWD...OUN...DDC...SJT... 34509958 35899887 37259841 38059819 38439787 38599725 38549587 38189538 37049546 35529613 33789714 33099777 32959887 33239969 33719984 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 12 18:19:36 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 12 Jun 2004 13:19:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406121819.i5CIJE215583@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 121818 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121818 SCZ000-GAZ000-NCZ000-122015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1218 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0118 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN/NERN GA...SWRN NC...AND SC EXCEPT NERN PORTION CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 121818Z - 122015Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH PULSE CHARACTERISTICS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE MTNS OF SWRN NC SOUTH AND SEWD ACROSS SC AND ERN/NERN GA. IF ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTERS CAN DEVELOP...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED. AT 18Z...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM 30 NE AVL TO 15 S CLT TO FLO TO CRE. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED THAT A SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WAS MOVING INLAND TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT DOWN THE COAST TO CHS. THUNDERSTORMS WERE INCREASINGLY RAPIDLY ACROSS THE MTNS OF SWRN NC/FAR WRN SC...WITH AN INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER CU ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MAX HEATING PERIOD...WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS WEAK ACROSS THE AREA...ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE PULSE STORMS WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH WET MICROBURSTS. CONVERGENCE ALONG COLD FRONT IS NOT VERY PRONOUNCED AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER...IF THUNDERSTORMS CAN BECOME ORGANIZED ACROSS CENTRAL/UPSTATE SC IN VICINITY OF THIS FEATURE...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED. ..BANACOS.. 06/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC... 34488053 35168169 35618252 35438303 35168349 34628388 34078357 33298318 32898271 32418183 32248139 32388068 32617996 33387889 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 12 18:55:25 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 12 Jun 2004 13:55:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406121855.i5CIt3204223@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 121854 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121853 KSZ000-NEZ000-122100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1219 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0153 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NCNTRL AND NE KS...FAR SRN NEB CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 446... VALID 121853Z - 122100Z CONVECTION WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ONCE INITIATION OCCURS ACROSS NRN KS AND FAR SRN NEB. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING SWWD FROM THE OMAHA AREA ACROSS SERN NEB INTO NCNTRL KS. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A NEW CUMULUS FIELD EXPANDING IN SRN NEB SOUTH OF HASTINGS. THIS COINCIDES WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AS SHOWN ON OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CHARTS. THE CONVERGENCE AND STRONG INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION BY 21Z. THE 18Z SOUNDING AT TOP SHOWS 40 KT AT 500 MB WITH VEERED WIND PROFILES BELOW 700 MB. THIS SUGGESTS SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY WITH TORNADOES POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS SRN NEB AND NCNTRL KS. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR VERY LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS. IN ADDITION...WIND DAMAGE WILL BE LIKELY ESPECIALLY WITH BOWING SEGMENTS THAT FORM AND MOVE INTO THE HIGHER SFC DEWPOINTS ACROSS FAR SE NEB AND NE KS. ..BROYLES.. 06/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD... 39599987 40059950 40399881 40349771 40129666 39749562 39299548 38729590 38599639 38799706 39069852 39129937 39169972 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 12 20:12:57 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 12 Jun 2004 15:12:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406122012.i5CKCZ208741@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 122008 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122008 TXZ000-122215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1221 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0308 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WEST TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 122008Z - 122215Z STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO INITIATE EAST OF THE DRYLINE ACROSS WEST TX. SUPERCELLS WITH A POTENTIAL LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE LIKELY. AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT MAY ALSO EXIST. A NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY BY LATE AFTERNOON. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE DRYLINE EXTENDING SSWWD FROM JUST EAST OF LUBBOCK TO NEAR MIDLAND AND INTO BIG BEND NP. A DISTURBANCE IS APPROACHING THE REGION FROM SERN NM AS SEEN BY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS FEATURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A 40 KT MID-LEVEL SPEED ACROSS FAR WEST TX AND WILL INCREASE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A BAND OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE AND THIS WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS CONVERGENCE COMBINED WITH INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN CONTINUED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR AHEAD OF THE DISTURBANCE COMBINED WITH VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN A FAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. A TORNADO THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST IN AREAS WITH LOCALLY BACKED SFC WINDS. WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WITH THE STRONGER SUPERCELLS. ..BROYLES.. 06/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF... 30250196 29970284 30240363 30660368 31010321 31130307 31740211 33020134 32919982 31580036 30610124  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 12 20:17:42 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 12 Jun 2004 15:17:42 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406122017.i5CKHK211196@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 122014 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122014 NCZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-122215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1222 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0314 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN AR...MO BOOTHEEL...AND TN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 447... VALID 122014Z - 122215Z CONTINUE WW. AT 19Z...ELONGATED EAST-WEST OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE SLOWLY SWD ACROSS FAR NERN AR...THE MO BOOTHEEL...AND NWRN/N-CENTRAL TN. MOST ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE FEATURE ACROSS THE WATCH AREA IS SHORT LINE SEGMENT AND BOOKEND VORTEX MOVING EWD IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY IN FAR NERN AR/MO BOOTHEEL. 100MB MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-2500 J/KG JUST IN ADVANCE OF THIS LINE SHOULD MAINTAIN CONVECTION AT SEVERE LIMITS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. ABSENCE OF CIN SHOULD ALLOW FOR EFFECTIVE REGENERATION OF UPDRAFTS ALONG LEADING EDGE OF STORMS. MOVEMENT IS GENERALLY EWD AROUND 30 KT. THUNDERSTORMS ALONG SWD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY TRACK EWD PARALLEL TO DEEP-LAYER FLOW. THIS MAY RESULT IN A LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN THREAT. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE CELLS WITH PULSE CHARACTERISTICS SHOULD PERSIST DURING NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS MIDDLE/ERN TN WHERE MLCAPE REMAINS AROUND 2000 J/KG. ..BANACOS.. 06/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...JKL...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF... 35009191 36579193 36618374 35028371 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 12 20:32:33 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 12 Jun 2004 15:32:33 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406122032.i5CKWB218373@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 122030 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122030 VAZ000-WVZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-OHZ000-122200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1223 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0330 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN/SRN KY..SRN WV...AND SWRN VA CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 445... VALID 122030Z - 122200Z A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH CONTINUES UNTIL 21Z ACROSS SRN/ERN SECTIONS OF KY. WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL KY EWD INTO SRN WV/SWRN VA CONTINUE TO REDUCE INSTABILITY RAPIDLY OVER THE AREA. AN ISOLATED THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS OR HAIL MAY EXIST BEYOND 21Z...HOWEVER...OVERALL INTENSITY OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE. PRESENCE OF BACKDOOR COLD FRONT BANKED ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIAN MTNS AND OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES SUGGEST THAT HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WILL BE RELATIVELY HIGH INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS FAR ERN KY...SRN WV...AND SWRN VA. EXISTING SLOW-MOVING CONVECTION OVER THE REGION AND ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL MAINTAIN HVY RAIN THREAT FOR SEVERAL HOURS. HOURLY RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 2"/HR ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INTO THE REGION AND PW VALUES AROUND 1.75 IN. WITH DIMINISHING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL... ADDITIONAL WW WILL LIKELY NOT BE ISSUED. ..BANACOS.. 06/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK... 36558110 37188104 38148119 38418211 38558399 37328534 36848662 36708638 36658342 36578247 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 12 20:54:29 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 12 Jun 2004 15:54:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406122054.i5CKs7228699@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 122052 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122051 INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-122215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1224 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0351 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IL AND SERN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 122051Z - 122215Z INCREASING THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS FAR SERN MO AND SRN IL WITH MCS MOVING INTO THE AREA. ORGANIZED MCS ACROSS SERN MO AND NERN AR...MOVING ENEWD AROUND 30 KT...HAS EXHIBITED A STRONG BOOKEND VORTEX ON ITS NRN FLANK DURING THE PAST HOUR. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES INTO VERY MOIST AIR MASS ACROSS SRN IL...POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS MAY INCREASE. CLEARING BEHIND INITIAL CLUSTER OF CONVECTION...WHICH HAS PUSHED SWD INTO NWRN TN...HAS ALLOWED FOR AIR MASS RECOVERY ACROSS SRN IL AND SERN MO /MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG/. A SMALL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED SOON FOR PORTIONS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. ..BANACOS.. 06/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX... 36738885 36758972 37119009 37809029 38088992 38348907 38378849 38218823 37938808 37348817  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 12 21:39:43 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 12 Jun 2004 16:39:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406122139.i5CLdR214182@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 122136 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122136 MOZ000-ARZ000-IAZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-122300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1225 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0436 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN OK...NWRN AR...SERN/ERN KS AND SWRN/WRN MO...INCLUDING KANSAS CITY METRO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 449... VALID 122136Z - 122300Z A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS SERN KS/NERN OK/SWRN MO/NWRN AR. AN ADDITIONAL WATCH MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS FAR ERN KS INTO WRN MO DURING THE NEXT HOUR. CLUSTER OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR SERN KS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE 200/35-40 KT THROUGH 00Z. THE KS/MO BORDER LIES ON THE ERN EDGE OF MODERATE TO VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS...WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. MLCAPE ALONG THE KS/MO BORDER IS AROUND 2000 J/KG. AIR MASS REMAINS ONLY WEAKLY UNSTABLE FURTHER EAST ACROSS CENTRAL MO. EXTRAPOLATION TAKES CURRENT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OUT OF WW 449 INTO FAR W-CENTRAL MO BETWEEN 2230-2300Z. SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR EXISTS ACROSS THE REGION FOR SUPERCELLS...PER LATEST SGF VAD WIND PROFILE. VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY. CURRENT NNEWD STORM MOTION IS NOT PARTICULARLY CONDUSIVE FOR TORNADOES... BUT RIGHT TURNING MEMBERS MAY ENHANCE SRH AND INCREASE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES. PRESENT TRENDS SUGGEST THAT AN ADDITIONAL WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR FAR ERN KS/WRN MO DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. ..BANACOS.. 06/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...DMX...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT... 37809391 36579302 36169341 36189415 36569518 36649573 37549569 38289554 40589412 40579265 38779364 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 12 22:02:45 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 12 Jun 2004 17:02:45 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406122202.i5CM2N224669@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 122201 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122200 IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-122330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1226 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0500 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB/WRN IA AND NERN KS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 446... VALID 122200Z - 122330Z GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES APPEARS TO BE ACROSS CNTRL AND SRN PORTIONS OF WW AREA. 21Z MESOANALYSIS SHOWED SURFACE LOW WSW OF CNK WITH ATTENDANT DRYLINE EXTENDING SWD INTO S-CNTRL KS. REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM MORNING CONVECTION WAS LOCATED OVER PORTIONS OF S-CNTRL/SERN NEB...EXTENDING FROM NRN NUCKOLLS COUNTY EWD ACROSS NRN GAGE COUNTY INTO NEMAHA COUNTY. KUEX/KOAX VOLUMETRIC RADAR DATA INDICATE SEVERAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES N OF THIS BOUNDARY OVER CLAY...SALINE AND LANCASTER COUNTIES EMBEDDED WITHIN LARGER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. THOUGH THESE STORMS WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF ISOLATED TORNADOES... REFLECTIVITY LOOPS INDICATE A SWD PUSH TO COMPOSITE OUTFLOW EMANATING FROM ONGOING STORMS...SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR OUTFLOW DOMINANCE OR TENDENCY FOR STORMS TO BECOME SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ABOVE INCREASING COLD POOL. AIRMASS TO THE S ACROSS N-CNTRL KS HAS BECOME STRONGLY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 3000-4000 J/KG WITH A GENERAL INCREASE IN 0-6KM SHEAR TO 35-40KTS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND STRENGTHENING SHEAR...SUPERCELLS APPEAR LIKELY SWD ALONG DRYLINE...AS WELL AS FARTHER NW WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS WRAPPING AROUND SURFACE LOW OVER S-CNTRL NEB/FAR N-CNTRL KS. ASIDE FROM VERY LARGE HAIL...BACKED NATURE OF SURFACE WINDS S OF COMPOSITE OUTFLOW...N OF SURFACE LOW AND SWD ALONG DRYLINE SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS. ..MEAD.. 06/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC... 42769683 42729289 38229553 38219922 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 12 22:36:57 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 12 Jun 2004 17:36:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406122236.i5CMaa206451@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 122235 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122235 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-130100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1227 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0535 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/NERN SD...AND FAR WRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 122235Z - 130100Z CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL SD WILL MOVE ENEWD AT 20-25 KT ACROSS NERN SD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SEPARATE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS FAR NERN SD WILL MOVE INTO WRN MN DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND/HAIL WILL EXIST UNTIL BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES LATE THIS EVENING. WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY FLOW SOUTH OF VERTICAL STACKED SYSTEM OVER SRN MANITOBA SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING. STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS/SECONDARY COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NE-SW ACROSS SD. STRONG SURFACE HEATING COMBINED WITH COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-16C AT 500MB/ HAS RESULTED IN STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM CENTRAL SD INTO FAR WRN MN. WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG AND WBZ HEIGHTS AROUND 8 KFT...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER CORES. IN ADDITION...LOCALIZED SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE MAY OCCUR GIVEN EFFECTIVE VERTICAL MOMENTUM TRANSPORT AND MODERATE BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS /20-25F/. INTENSITY OF CELLS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SHORT DURATION AND MARGINAL NATURE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IN THIS REGION WILL PRECLUDE WW ISSUANCE. ..BANACOS.. 06/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...UNR... 45520129 45989946 46029751 46049619 45279590 44979673 44879785 44439915 44320010 44350100 44820156 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 12 22:39:12 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 12 Jun 2004 17:39:12 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406122238.i5CMcw207222@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 122238 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122237 KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-130000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1228 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0537 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL/SERN KS SWD ACROSS WRN OK AND NWRN TX CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 448... VALID 122237Z - 130000Z POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES EXISTS WITH DEVELOPING STORMS. CONTINUE WW. AS OF 2220Z...REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC INDICATED STORMS DEVELOPING OVER SUMNER/SEDGWICK COUNTIES IN S-CNTRL KS...WOODS/WOODWARD COUNTIES IN NWRN OK AND COLLINGSWORTH/KENT COUNTIES IN THE TX PNHDL/WRN TX. 22Z MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS THESE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ON DRYLINE WITHIN ZONE OF STRONG HEATING AND SUSTAINED CONVERGENCE. A SECONDARY DRYLINE FEATURE OR CONFLUENCE LINE / DELINEATING RICH... BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE -I.E. LOWER TO MID 70S DEWPOINTS- FROM A DEEPER-MIXED AIRMASS / ALSO EXTENDED FROM JUST W OF ICT SWD TO NEAR END TO SE OF LTS. LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS WRN TX SHOULD ENCOURAGE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG DRYLINE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SUFFICIENTLY STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 30-35KT ORIENTED NORMAL TO DRYLINE SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL EXIST WITH THOSE STORMS THAT CAN MOVE EWD ACROSS ERN DRYLINE/CONFLUENCE LINE INTO ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY COMPARATIVELY HIGHER INSTABILITY AND STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. ..MEAD.. 06/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...FWD...OUN...DDC...SJT...LUB...AMA... 38259878 38249565 32989819 32970115 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 12 22:40:12 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 12 Jun 2004 17:40:12 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406122239.i5CMdq207456@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 122235 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122235 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-130100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1227 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0535 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/NERN SD...AND FAR WRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 122235Z - 130100Z CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL SD WILL MOVE ENEWD AT 20-25 KT ACROSS NERN SD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SEPARATE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS FAR NERN SD WILL MOVE INTO WRN MN DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND/HAIL WILL EXIST UNTIL BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES LATE THIS EVENING. WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY FLOW SOUTH OF VERTICAL STACKED SYSTEM OVER SRN MANITOBA SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING. STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS/SECONDARY COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NE-SW ACROSS SD. STRONG SURFACE HEATING COMBINED WITH COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-16C AT 500MB/ HAS RESULTED IN STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM CENTRAL SD INTO FAR WRN MN. WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG AND WBZ HEIGHTS AROUND 8 KFT...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER CORES. IN ADDITION...LOCALIZED SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE MAY OCCUR GIVEN EFFECTIVE VERTICAL MOMENTUM TRANSPORT AND MODERATE BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS /20-25F/. INTENSITY OF CELLS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SHORT DURATION AND MARGINAL NATURE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IN THIS REGION WILL PRECLUDE WW ISSUANCE. ..BANACOS.. 06/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...UNR... 45520129 45989946 46029751 46049619 45279590 44979673 44879785 44439915 44320010 44350100 44820156  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 12 22:40:47 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 12 Jun 2004 17:40:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406122240.i5CMeR208075@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 122238 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122237 KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-130000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1228 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0537 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL/SERN KS SWD ACROSS WRN OK AND NWRN TX CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 448... VALID 122237Z - 130000Z POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES EXISTS WITH DEVELOPING STORMS. CONTINUE WW. AS OF 2220Z...REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC INDICATED STORMS DEVELOPING OVER SUMNER/SEDGWICK COUNTIES IN S-CNTRL KS...WOODS/WOODWARD COUNTIES IN NWRN OK AND COLLINGSWORTH/KENT COUNTIES IN THE TX PNHDL/WRN TX. 22Z MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS THESE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ON DRYLINE WITHIN ZONE OF STRONG HEATING AND SUSTAINED CONVERGENCE. A SECONDARY DRYLINE FEATURE OR CONFLUENCE LINE / DELINEATING RICH... BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE -I.E. LOWER TO MID 70S DEWPOINTS- FROM A DEEPER-MIXED AIRMASS / ALSO EXTENDED FROM JUST W OF ICT SWD TO NEAR END TO SE OF LTS. LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS WRN TX SHOULD ENCOURAGE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG DRYLINE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SUFFICIENTLY STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 30-35KT ORIENTED NORMAL TO DRYLINE SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL EXIST WITH THOSE STORMS THAT CAN MOVE EWD ACROSS ERN DRYLINE/CONFLUENCE LINE INTO ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY COMPARATIVELY HIGHER INSTABILITY AND STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. ..MEAD.. 06/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...FWD...OUN...DDC...SJT...LUB...AMA... 38259878 38249565 32989819 32970115  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 12 23:09:39 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 12 Jun 2004 18:09:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406122309.i5CN9Q220082@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 122308 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122308 INZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-122345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1229 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0608 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IL...WRN KY...AND FAR SWRN IND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 452... VALID 122308Z - 122345Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 452 CONTINUES ACROSS SERN IL...WRN KY...AND FAR SWRN IND. PRESENT TRENDS SUGGEST SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS DIMINISHING. AT 23Z...RADAR TRENDS INDICATE SIGNIFICANT WEAKEN OF BOW ECHO MOVING ACROSS FAR SRN IL. DEVELOPMENT OF WEAKLY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY VIA LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION JUST IN ADVANCE OF THE BOW HAS DIMINISHED AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AND LESSENED THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS. PRESENT TRENDS SUGGEST WW MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY. ..BANACOS.. 06/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...LSX... 36658716 36628971 37938974 37908717 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 12 23:13:57 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 12 Jun 2004 18:13:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406122313.i5CNDf221509@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 122311 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122310 TXZ000-130045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1230 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0610 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN INTO SWRN TX CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 450... VALID 122310Z - 130045Z POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES EXISTS WITH STRONGEST STORMS. CONTINUE WW. AS OF 2254Z...MIDLAND VOLUMETRIC RADAR DATA INDICATED A LARGE CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...INCLUDING EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS...OVER PORTIONS OF PECOS/TERRELL AND BREWSTER COUNTIES MOVING SEWD. ADDITIONAL STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG DRYLINE OVER THE PAST HOUR FROM DAWSON COUNTY SWWD INTO ECTOR AND CRANE COUNTIES. STRONG HEATING ALONG AND E OF DRYLINE COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70F HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY AHEAD OF ONGOING STORMS EARLY THIS EVENING WITH MLCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG. MOREOVER...A BELT OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL WINDS /35-45KTS AT 500MB/ CONTINUES TO SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE REGION...TO THE S OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF ERN NM INTO WRN TX. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY LARGE TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS E OF DRYLINE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE COLD POOL PRODUCTION FROM RAPIDLY DEVELOPING STORMS...EXPECT LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. THE EXCEPTION IS OVER PORTIONS OF ERN BREWSTER AND TERRELL COUNTIES WHERE SUPERCELLS ARE MOVING THROUGH AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STRONGER INSTABILITY AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. ..MEAD.. 06/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF... 32930124 32919866 29730082 29750333 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 13 00:02:11 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 12 Jun 2004 19:02:11 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406130001.i5D01o208818@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 130001 SWOMCD SPC MCD 130000 WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-130200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1231 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0700 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MN...NERN IA...WRN/SWRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 130000Z - 130200Z THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS FAR SERN MN...NERN IA...AND WRN/SWRN WI DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WW MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS EVENING IF CONVECTIVE LINE INCREASES IN INTENSITY. CONTINUATION OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT ORIGINATED IN FAR ERN NEB EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IS NOW MOVING ENEWD ACROSS FAR SERN MN/NERN IA. FORWARD SPEED OF LINE IS RELATIVELY FAST...40-45 KT. THIS CONVECTIVE LINE HAS BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH WIND GUSTS OF 35-45 KT IN ASOS OBSERVATIONS ACROSS N-CENTRAL IA AND FAR SRN MN. RUC OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS FIELDS INDICATE THAT THIS CONVECTIVE LINE IS MOVING INTO AIR WHICH IS LESS CAPPED...LIKELY OWING TO GREATER BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ORGANIZED NATURE OF CONVECTIVE LINE COMBINED WITH AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY /100MB MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG / ALONG THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY SUGGESTS THAT DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL MAY BE SUSTAINED INTO WRN/SWRN WI DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ..BANACOS.. 06/13/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX... 42899212 43499292 44379353 45149281 45349127 44909024 44028974 43128956 42768990 42559069 42589130 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 13 00:10:54 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 12 Jun 2004 19:10:54 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406130010.i5D0AX212949@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 130009 SWOMCD SPC MCD 130009 ILZ000-IAZ000-130145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1232 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0709 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 451... VALID 130009Z - 130145Z GREATEST WIND/HAIL POTENTIAL REMAINS ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF WW AREA. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 23Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED LEADING EDGE OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM FAYETTE COUNTY SWD THROUGH LINN COUNTY INTO WASHINGTON COUNTY MOVING EWD AT 20-25KTS. ASIDE FROM AN INITIATION ATTEMPT OVER IOWA COUNTY...SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT ALONG LEADING EDGE OF COLD POOL HAS YET TO OCCUR. 00Z SOUNDING FROM DVN INDICATES THAT DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND ONLY WEAKLY CAPPED. THUS...STRONG TO SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT STILL REMAINS A POSSIBILITY OVER ERN PORTIONS OF WW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. FARTHER W OVER CNTRL IA...STRENGTHENING LLJ FROM ERN KS/WRN MO INTO S-CNTRL IA MAY PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS ATOP STABILIZED SURFACE AIR IN PLACE ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF WW AREA. IF THIS OCCURS...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. ..MEAD.. 06/13/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILX...DVN...DMX... 42399404 42379030 40659034 40639406 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 13 00:59:40 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 12 Jun 2004 19:59:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406130059.i5D0xP231801@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 130058 SWOMCD SPC MCD 130058 MOZ000-KSZ000-130200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1233 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0758 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KS INTO FAR SWRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 449... VALID 130058Z - 130200Z A NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED WITHIN THE HOUR TO REPLACE WW 449. AS OF 0048Z...ICT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A SUPERCELL WITH A HISTORY OF TORNADOES OVER SRN BOLTER/FAR NRN COWLEY COUNTY MOVING EWD AT 15-20KTS. AN ADDITIONAL STRONG STORM WAS LOCATED OVER ERN GREENWOOD COUNTY MOVING EWD AT 25-30KT. AIRMASS S OF THESE STORMS REMAINS STRONGLY UNSTABLE THIS EVENING WITH MLCAPES OF 3000-4000 J/KG. ADDITIONALLY...BACKED WINDS ALONG AND S OF REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY /EXTENDING FROM S OF CNU TO S OF JLN/ ARE RESULTING IN A CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR OVER FAR SERN KS. THUS...ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ALONG AND S OF THIS BOUNDARY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. A NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED WITHIN THE HOUR TO REPLACE WW 449. ..MEAD.. 06/13/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT... 38099574 38099359 37009414 37009625 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 13 01:00:56 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 12 Jun 2004 20:00:56 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406130100.i5D10q232626@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 130059 SWOMCD SPC MCD 130059 MOZ000-KSZ000-130200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1234 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0759 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KS INTO FAR SWRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 449... VALID 130059Z - 130200Z A NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED WITHIN THE HOUR TO REPLACE WW 449. AS OF 0048Z...ICT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A SUPERCELL WITH A HISTORY OF TORNADOES OVER SRN BUTLER/FAR NRN COWLEY COUNTY MOVING EWD AT 15-20KTS. AN ADDITIONAL STRONG STORM WAS LOCATED OVER ERN GREENWOOD COUNTY MOVING EWD AT 25-30KT. AIRMASS S OF THESE STORMS REMAINS STRONGLY UNSTABLE THIS EVENING WITH MLCAPES OF 3000-4000 J/KG. ADDITIONALLY...BACKED WINDS ALONG AND S OF REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY /EXTENDING FROM S OF CNU TO S OF JLN/ ARE RESULTING IN A CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR OVER FAR SERN KS. THUS...ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ALONG AND S OF THIS BOUNDARY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. A NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED WITHIN THE HOUR TO REPLACE WW 449. ..MEAD.. 06/13/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT... 38099574 38099359 37009414 37009625 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 13 02:07:55 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 12 Jun 2004 21:07:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406130207.i5D27e229116@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 130206 SWOMCD SPC MCD 130206 IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-130330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1235 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0906 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS INTO NWRN MO CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 453... VALID 130206Z - 130330Z POTENTIAL FOR PRIMARILY DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL EXISTS ACROSS CNTRL AND SRN PORTIONS OF WW AREA. AS OF 0141Z...TOPEKA/KANSAS CITY RADAR DATA INDICATED LEADING EDGE OF MCS FROM HARRISON/DAVIESS COUNTIES IN NWRN MO SWWD THROUGH JACKSON/POTTAWATOMIE COUNTIES TO CLOUD COUNTY IN KS. EMBEDDED HP SUPERCELLS WERE OBSERVED WITHIN THIS SYSTEM...THE MOST NOTABLE OF WHICH BEING OVER HARRISON/DAVIESS COUNTIES AND HOLT/ANDREW COUNTIES MO. OVERALL SYSTEM MOVEMENT IS TO THE SE AT AROUND 35KTS...WITH EXTRAPOLATION SUGGESTING THAT KANSAS CITY METRO AREA WILL BE IMPACTED BY 0300-0330Z. STRENGTHENING SWLY LLJ FROM ERN KS INTO WRN MO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WILL ACT TO ENHANCE STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW OF VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS INTO LEADING EDGE OF SYSTEM. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. HOWEVER...ISOLATED TORNADOES REMAIN POSSIBLE...BOTH IN ASSOCIATION WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND NON-DESCENDING VARIETY ALONG LEADING EDGE OF GUST FRONT. ..MEAD.. 06/13/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC... 40669843 40619213 38099304 38079912 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 13 02:12:56 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 12 Jun 2004 21:12:56 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406130212.i5D2Ci231036@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 130210 SWOMCD SPC MCD 130210 WIZ000-MNZ000-130415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1236 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0910 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL MN/NWRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 130210Z - 130415Z ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WHILE POSSIBLY EXPANDING IN AREAL COVERAGE ENEWD INTO NWRN WI. AS LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES ABOVE REMNANT COLD DOME. OVERALL THREAT APPEARS MARGINAL FOR A WW. WV IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT A MODERATE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EWD FROM ERN SD THROUGH MN OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS. INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE AND ELEVATED UNCAPPED MUCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG WILL AID IN CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION FROM WCENTRAL INTO ECENTRAL MN/NWRN WI OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DEGREE OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN MARGINAL FOR ELEVATED SUPERCELLS...WITH ONLY 45-50 KTS AT MID LEVELS ATOP 25-30 SWLY KTS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. HOWEVER...PLUME OF STEEP LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE AND DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WILL FAVOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. ..CROSBIE.. 06/13/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...FSD...ABR... 44359595 44819637 45599617 45719524 45849291 45999152 45269098 44239216 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 13 02:35:00 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 12 Jun 2004 21:35:00 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406130234.i5D2Yd206800@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 130233 SWOMCD SPC MCD 130233 WIZ000-MNZ000-130430- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1237 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0933 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SCENTRAL KS...WRN AND CENTRAL OK...NWRN/NCENTRAL TX CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 448... VALID 130233Z - 130430Z PORTIONS OF WW 448 WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE REPLACED WITH A NEW WW BEFORE EXPIRATION TIME OF 04Z...WITH SOME POTENTIAL THAT MUCH OF WW 448 WILL NEED TO BE REPLACED. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS AS IT MOVES ENEWD AROUND 45 KTS FROM NORTH OF ABI/SW OF SPS INTO THE SERN PORTION OF WW 448 JACK/WISE AND CLAY COUNTIES BY AROUND 04Z. STRENGTH OF COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LINE AND MINIMAL INHIBITION NOTED ON THE FWD SOUNDING...SHOULD SUPPORT A SEVERE THREAT THAT WILL LAST AT LEAST SEVERAL HOURS BEYOND 04Z INTO NCENTRAL TX WHERE A NEW WW WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ISSUED BEFORE 04Z. FARTHER NORTH...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NWRN TX CONVECTION HAS BEEN INTERSECTING A OLD CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER THE SERN TX PANHANDLE AND NEW STRONG-SEVERE CONVECTION WAS DEVELOPING IN THIS AREA. NWD PROGRESS OF NEW DEVELOPMENT WHERE THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL MOVE NWD INTO ONLY WEAKLY CAPPED AIRMASS REMAINS UNCERTAIN. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT WITH THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET CONVECTION MAY BE MAINTAINED FOR QUITE SOME TIME THIS EVENING OVER WRN OK IF DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES OVER THE NEXT HOUR. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SUPERCELL OVER BUTLER/COWLEY COUNTY LINE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD AROUND 15 KTS WITH THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES CONTINUING AS IT MOVES INTO WW 454. CONVECTION MOVING ESEWD OUT OF CENTRAL KS MAY BACKBUILD SWD INTO SCENTRAL KS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THUS THIS AREA MAY AS WELL NEED TO BE PUT INTO A REPLACEMENT SEVERE WW BEFORE 04Z. ..CROSBIE.. 06/13/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...FSD...ABR... 44359595 44819637 45599617 45719524 45849291 45999152 45269098 44239216 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 13 04:25:50 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 12 Jun 2004 23:25:50 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406130425.i5D4PZ231476@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 130424 SWOMCD SPC MCD 130424 TXZ000-130600- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1238 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1124 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...W-CNTRL INTO N-CNTRL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 455... VALID 130424Z - 130600Z GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR PRIMARILY DAMAGING WINDS EXISTS ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF WW AREA. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL DOWNSTREAM WATCH. AS OF 0412Z...FT. WORTH RADAR DATA INDICATED LEADING EDGE OF GUST FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH SMALL MCS FROM MONTAGUE COUNTY SWD ACROSS WISE AND PARKER COUNTIES AND THEN SWWD INTO ERATH COUNTY. THOUGH GUST FRONT HAS REMAINED RELATIVELY CLOSE TO PARENT STORMS...HIGHER REFLECTIVITY CORES HAVE WEAKENED OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR. STRENGTHENING CAP OVER INFLOW AIRMASS SUGGESTED BY RUC ANALYSIS FIELDS MAY IN PART BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS TREND. THOUGH AN ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG GUST FRONT...IT APPEARS THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS IS DIMINISHING. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AND IF IT APPEARS THAT MCS IS RE-ORGANIZING...AN ADDITIONAL DOWNSTREAM WW MAY BE NECESSARY. ..MEAD.. 06/13/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...LUB...MAF... 32990001 32969726 31689864 31660143 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 13 04:49:54 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 12 Jun 2004 23:49:54 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406130449.i5D4nX208738@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 130448 SWOMCD SPC MCD 130447 MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-130615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1239 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1147 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN KS/SWRN MO INTO FAR NERN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 130447Z - 130615Z POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED WIND/HAIL WILL EXIST WITH STRONGEST STORMS. ADDITIONAL WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. TSTMS HAVE GRADUALLY INCREASED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE PAST HOUR ALONG A SURGING GUST FRONT FROM POLK AND LAWRENCE COUNTIES IN SWRN MO WWD INTO CHEROKEE COUNTY IN FAR SERN KS. ALTHOUGH AIRMASS REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE...RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A STRENGTHENING CAP...SUGGESTING THAT THIS INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE COMPLETELY REALIZED. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS EWD THROUGH THE SPRINGFIELD AREA...HOWEVER OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS TOO LOCALIZED TO WARRANT AN ADDITIONAL WW ATTM. ..MEAD.. 06/13/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...ICT... 37209497 37579332 37459252 36709275 36469329 36499472 36849530 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 13 06:45:35 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 13 Jun 2004 01:45:35 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406130645.i5D6jK223348@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 130644 SWOMCD SPC MCD 130644 MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-130815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1240 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0144 AM CDT SUN JUN 13 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KS / W CENTRAL AND SWRN MO... CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 456... VALID 130644Z - 130815Z THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF WW AREA ATTM...ALTHOUGH SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE DECREASING. MOIST / UNSTABLE AIRMASS PERSISTS ACROSS OK / CENTRAL AND SRN KS INTO SWRN MO ATTM...NEAR AND S OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW / BAROCLINIC ZONE. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS STORMS REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY FROM EAST OF DDC TOWARD ICT...BUT A SWD SURGE AT 30 KT IS INDICATED OVER SERN KS TOWARD NERN OK WHERE SWD-MOVING COLD-POOL AND SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET ARE COMBINING TO PRODUCE STRONG LOW-LEVEL UVV ALONG AND N OF GUST FRONT. ALTHOUGH DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND PRESENCE OF 30 TO 40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE...DEEP-LAYER FLOW ACROSS THIS REGION IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG ABOVE THE LOW-LEVEL JET. THIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE INTENSITY OF ANY ISOLATED STORMS MAY REMAIN LIMITED -- WITH HAIL LIKELY THE MAIN THREAT. ELSEWHERE...WHERE MORE LINEAR STORM ORGANIZATION PERSISTS...LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR CONVECTIVE LINES. HOWEVER...WE REMAIN UNCERTAIN REGARDING POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE / DAMAGING GUSTS. GREATEST THREAT WOULD APPEAR TO BE ACROSS SERN KS / NERN OK AHEAD OF SWD-SURGING LINE -- WHICH WILL REACH THE KS-OK BORDER / SRN PORTIONS OF WW NEAR ITS 13/08Z EXPIRATION. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF THIS CONVECTION FOR POSSIBILITY OF A NEW WW INTO PARTS OF NRN OK. THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO APPEARS TO EXIST OVER PARTS OF KS -- PARTICULARLY FROM NEAR ICT WWD INTO KIOWA / EDWARDS COUNTIES WHERE FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF SLOW-MOVING STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED. ..GOSS.. 06/13/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC... 38529655 37839373 36939364 36149491 35939636 36709740 37669945 38189814 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 13 12:31:20 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 13 Jun 2004 07:31:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406131231.i5DCV5216645@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 131229 SWOMCD SPC MCD 131229 MIZ000-WIZ000-131400- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1241 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0729 AM CDT SUN JUN 13 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND NRN WI... CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 131229Z - 131400Z THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL WI ATTM...AND MAY POSE A LOCALIZED SEVERE THREAT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN NARROW AXIS OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY ACROSS CENTRAL WI ATTM. STORMS ARE DEVELOPING NEAR SURFACE TROUGH AXIS MOVING EWD ACROSS WRN WI...AND AHEAD OF LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR LSE MOVING NNEWD TOWARD CENTRAL WI. MODERATE DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD EXISTS ACROSS THIS REGION...PROVIDING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR STORM ORGANIZATION / ROTATION. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS LIMITED AND ELEVATED ABOVE A SHALLOW / STABLE SURFACE LAYER...A FEW STRONGER / ROTATING STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ATTM...WW NOT ANTICIPATED GIVEN LIMITED / NARROW INSTABILITY AXIS WHICH SHOULD ALLOW ONLY A LOCAL / MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...IF MORE WIDESPREAD STORM DEVELOPMENT BECOMES EVIDENT...WW MAY BE REQUIRED. ..GOSS.. 06/13/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...MPX... 44299151 46488967 46668836 46298756 45078825 43508942 43129051 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 13 15:32:19 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 13 Jun 2004 10:32:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406131532.i5DFW0206308@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 131530 SWOMCD SPC MCD 131529 KYZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-131730- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1242 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1029 AM CDT SUN JUN 13 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...TN NRN MS WRN KY NRN AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 131529Z - 131730Z A SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN ADDED ACROSS TN...NRN AL...NRN GA AND FAR WRN NC. WW MAY BE REQUIRED BY 18Z FOR PART OF THIS REGION...MOST LIKELY INTO WRN TN/NRN MS. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE WILL EXIST WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS ERN KY AND ERN TN...WITH AN EWD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NOW MOVING ACROSS NERN AR. WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR...MLCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 2000 TO 3000 J/KG...AND INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE LATE THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF TN. THE 12Z SOUNDING AT BNA SHOWED ABOUT 25 KT AT 500 MB...WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 30 KT. THIS COMBINED WITH THE STRONG INSTABILITY WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS. STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SFC DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 F WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. ..BROYLES.. 06/13/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...FFC...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG... 34188950 34579040 36059018 36748770 37158513 36548474 34968539 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 13 15:43:55 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 13 Jun 2004 10:43:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406131543.i5DFhb211562@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 131542 SWOMCD SPC MCD 131542 COR KYZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-131730- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1242 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1042 AM CDT SUN JUN 13 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...TN NRN MS WRN KY NRN AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 131542Z - 131730Z CORRECTED TO TAKE OUT MENTION OF NC/GA A SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN ADDED ACROSS TN...KY...NRN MS AND FAR NRN AL. WW MAY BE REQUIRED BY 18Z FOR PART OF THIS REGION...MOST LIKELY INTO WRN TN/NRN MS. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE WILL EXIST WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS ERN KY AND ERN TN...WITH AN EWD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NOW MOVING ACROSS NERN AR. WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR...MLCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 2000 TO 3000 J/KG...AND INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE LATE THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF TN. THE 12Z SOUNDING AT BNA SHOWED ABOUT 25 KT AT 500 MB...WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 30 KT. THIS COMBINED WITH THE STRONG INSTABILITY WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS. STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SFC DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 F WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. ..BROYLES.. 06/13/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...FFC...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG... 34188950 34579040 36059018 36748770 37158513 36548474 34968539 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 13 16:46:58 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 13 Jun 2004 11:46:58 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406131646.i5DGkb206640@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 131646 SWOMCD SPC MCD 131645 MIZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-131815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1243 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1145 AM CDT SUN JUN 13 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN WI...FAR NERN IL...LOWER MI...AND CENTRAL/ERN UPPER MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 131645Z - 131815Z ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NERN WI WILL CONTINUE NEWD INTO CENTRAL/ERN UPPER MI EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED SWD IN VICINITY OF CENTRAL/SRN LAKE MICHIGAN BY MID-AFTERNOON. A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SOON ACROSS LOWER MI. MESOSCALE VORT CENTER CENTERED 35N MSN AT 16Z WILL CONTINUE LIFTING NEWD TOWARD NRN LAKE MI THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE ENHANCED BY UPSTREAM SYNOPTIC-SCALE TROUGH EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY OVER WRN MN. A SUBSYNOPTIC LOW IS CENTERED OVER E-CENTRAL WI WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING ENEWD INTO NRN LOWER MI. A WEAK COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT LINE EXTENDS SWD INTO NRN IL. THE CLUSTER OF ELEVATED STORMS SUPPORTED BY PVA AND WARM ADVECTION SHOULD LIFT NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN UPPER MI DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MORNING APX SOUNDING SUGGESTS AIR MASS NORTH OF WARM FRONT IS STRONGLY CAPPED...WHICH WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS WITH EMBEDDED STRONG REFLECTIVITY LINE NEAR/NORTH OF GRB. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS ACROSS THE U.P. AS FEED OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH. SURFACE CONVERGENCE LINE MOVING EWD TOWARD SERN WI/FAR NERN IL WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SURFACE BASED DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. GIVEN WEAK CAP...STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ALONG LAKE BREEZE ACROSS SWRN LOWER MI. AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY DESTABILIZE ACROSS ALL OF LOWER MI OWING TO STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION. SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN INTO THE LOW 70S ACROSS MUCH OF SWRN MI...AND WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 3000 J/KG BY MID-AFTERNOON. SFC-6KM SHEAR OF 35-45 KT SHOULD ALLOW STORMS TO BECOME ORGANIZED QUICKLY IN LAKE MICHIGAN/WRN LOWER MI VICINITY NEXT FEW HOURS WITH MOVEMENT LIKELY ENEWD AT 25-30KT. PRESENT TRENDS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS...WITH FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND LCL HEIGHT ENVIRONMENT FOR TORNADOES ACROSS LOWER MI BY MID-AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE ALSO LIKELY. ..BANACOS.. 06/13/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...MQT...GRB...LOT...MKX... 41718284 43468312 45818478 46608587 46648684 46508789 45428863 43958857 43078853 42438846 41958822 41798784 41868634 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 13 18:00:08 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 13 Jun 2004 13:00:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406131759.i5DHxm208509@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 131758 SWOMCD SPC MCD 131757 OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-132000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1244 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1257 PM CDT SUN JUN 13 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN IND AND WRN OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 131757Z - 132000Z THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS N-CENTRAL INTO NERN IND/NWRN OH DURING NEXT FEW HOURS. WW IS LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THIS REGION. AT 1745Z...SUBTLE SURFACE CONVERGENCE AXIS EXTENDING FROM 35 E SBN TO 30 NW IND HAS BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING CONVECTIVE TRENDS DURING PAST HOUR AS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION DECREASES. DEVELOPMENT IS WITHIN SURFACE MOIST AXIS...WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 70. CONTINUED SURFACE HEATING WILL RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. STRONG...MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY DEEP LAYER FLOW WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF DAMAGING WINDS WITH ANY SMALL-SCALE BOW SEGMENTS THAT FORM THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER CORES AS STORMS TRACK GENERALLY ENEWD AT 30-35 KT THROUGH NERN IND AND NWRN OH THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. ..BANACOS.. 06/13/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND... 39638554 39628605 40098656 40988617 41758534 41598332 40848299 40218286 39738302 39488367 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 13 18:59:24 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 13 Jun 2004 13:59:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406131859.i5DIx3206211@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 131858 SWOMCD SPC MCD 131857 MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-132100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1245 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0157 PM CDT SUN JUN 13 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NE TX...SRN AR...FAR NRN LA...FAR WRN MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 131857Z - 132100Z SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ACROSS NE TX AND SRN AR WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE OR HAIL THREAT WILL EXIST WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LOCATED ACROSS N TX EXTENDING EWD INTO SRN AR. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS INCREASING ACROSS NE TX ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND NEW CELLS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INITIATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY HAS VERY UNSTABLE AIR LOCATED ACROSS EAST TEXAS WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500 TO 3500 J/KG. IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 25 TO 35 KT OF MID-LEVEL FLOW FROM NEAR THE RED RIVER EXTENDING EWD ACROSS SRN AR. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN ENOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR ISOLATED SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS. VERY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S F WILL FAVOR WIND DAMAGE AS THE PRIMARY THREAT. THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS MAY ALSO HAVE A HAIL THREAT BECAUSE OF THE STRONG INSTABILITY PRESENT. ..BROYLES.. 06/13/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...FWD... 32669159 32619222 32319515 32889577 33629575 33939456 34309155 34299037 33778989 32939017 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 13 19:03:20 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 13 Jun 2004 14:03:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406131903.i5DJ2x208208@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 131902 SWOMCD SPC MCD 131901 MIZ000-132030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1246 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0201 PM CDT SUN JUN 13 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER MI CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 459... VALID 131901Z - 132030Z CONTINUE WW. AT 1850Z...BROKEN LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS EXTENDED FROM NRN LAKE MI SEWD TO GRATIOT COUNTY IN CENTRAL LOWER MI. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE ENEWD ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF LOWER MI AND SAGINAW BAY REGION DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE 18Z APX SOUNDING INDICATED MUCAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG...AND LATEST VAD WIND FROM THE AREA SHOWS STRONG LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE AND 0-1KM SRH OF 100-150 M2/S2. ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES WITH ONGOING BAND OF STORMS. TO THE WEST...CONVECTIVE TRENDS SHOULD SLOWLY INCREASE NEAR AND SOUTH OF SUBSYNOPTIC LOW NEAR THE CENTRAL WI SHORELINE. TRENDS SUGGEST AN ADDITIONAL LINE OF STORMS MAY ORGANIZE ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN LAKE MI INTO WRN LOWER MI BY LATE AFTERNOON. AIR MASS REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE ACROSS MOST OF WRN AND ESPECIALLY SWRN LOWER MI TO SUPPORT CONTINUED SEVERE THREAT. ..BANACOS.. 06/13/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR... 41768301 41778647 45698620 45688248 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 13 19:48:36 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 13 Jun 2004 14:48:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406131948.i5DJmG229250@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 131946 SWOMCD SPC MCD 131946 MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-132145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1247 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0246 PM CDT SUN JUN 13 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SE NEB...NE KS...NW MO AND FAR SW IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 131946Z - 132145Z ISOLATED CONVECTION CURRENTLY DEVELOPING NEAR THE NEB-KS STATE LINE IN SE NEB WILL CONTINUE EWD AND SHOULD STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY INITIATE WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THE STORMS. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING SWWD FROM WRN IA INTO SE NEB. A DRYLINE IS PRESENT FROM EAST OF HASTINGS EXTENDING SWWD INTO NW KS. THE DRYLINE IS CURRENTLY ENHANCING CONVERGENCE IN AN AREA OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT FROM A SHORTWAVE EXTENDING SWD THROUGH ERN NEB. AS A RESULT...ISOLATED CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING NEAR THE NEB-KS STATE LINE. SBCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S F IN THE VICINITY OF THE MO RIVER. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A MESOSCALE MID-LEVEL JET OF 45 KT ACROSS SE NEB AND THIS IS ENHANCING SHEAR...MAKING THE ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. SFC TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S F AND 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -12C ARE CREATING STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS COMBINED WITH WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 9,000 FEET WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. ..BROYLES.. 06/13/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID... 40639682 40719505 40629425 40489379 40069356 39499374 39239487 39259623 39349728 39759755 40329751  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 13 20:07:51 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 13 Jun 2004 15:07:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406132007.i5DK7V206820@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 132004 SWOMCD SPC MCD 132003 OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-132130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1248 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0303 PM CDT SUN JUN 13 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/NRN IND AND WRN OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 460... VALID 132003Z - 132130Z THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE EXPECTED TO INCREASE NEXT 1-2 HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL IND SWWD TO THE IL/IND BORDER. CONTINUE WW. SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 19Z REVEALS REGION OF 2-3MB/2HR PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN IND. THIS REGION IS JUST IN ADVANCE OF WEAK COLD FRONT AND INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUD TRENDS ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. ANTICIPATE ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM INITIAL CLUSTER...NOW NEAR FWA...SWWD ACROSS W-CENTRAL IND TO THE IL BORDER. AIR MASS ACROSS CENTRAL IND WILL REMAIN MODERATELY UNSTABLE /100MB MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG / IN ADVANCE OF DEVELOPING STORMS SUPPORTING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT. THE SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS HAVE LOCALLY BACKED LOW-LEVEL WINDS AROUND CENTRAL IND...AND MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT IF DEVELOPING STORMS TO THE WEST CAN REMAIN DISCRETE IN NATURE. MESOSCALE/STORM-SCALE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED ACROSS W-CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL IND. ..BANACOS.. 06/13/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX... 41678753 41788326 39648324 39558545 39528754  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 13 20:32:07 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 13 Jun 2004 15:32:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406132031.i5DKVr217797@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 132030 SWOMCD SPC MCD 132029 WIZ000-MIZ000-MNZ000-132230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1249 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0329 PM CDT SUN JUN 13 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MN...NRN WI...AND WRN UPPER MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 132029Z - 132230Z ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ERN MN/NRN WI/WRN UPPER MI THROUGH THIS EVENING MAY CONTAIN LARGE HAIL. SURFACE HEATING BETWEEN DOWNSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AREA AND UPSTREAM SYSTEM ON WV IMAGERY OVER ERN MN HAS RESULTED IN REGION OF MUCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG ACROSS NRN WI INTO WRN UPPER MI. VERY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-15C AT 500MB/ HAS MINIMIZED CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND IS ALLOWING FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NWRN/NRN WI. AXIS OF BOUNDARY LAYER CU EXTENDS WWD INTO WRN MN SUGGESTING THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL STORMS DURING NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WEST OF MS RIVER. STRONG SFC-6KM SHEAR OF 45-50 KT COMBINED WITH WBZ HEIGHTS BETWEEN 7-8 KFT SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LONG-LIVED STORMS SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE HAIL. ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE GIVEN STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW FIELDS AND STEEP LAPSE RATES. INTENSITY OF CONVECTION IN THIS REGIME SHOULD DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING AS BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO STABILIZE. ..BANACOS.. 06/13/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX... 46839104 46758966 46788842 46108803 45318814 45138914 45099025 45209156 45429392 46029400 46699391 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 13 23:08:40 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 13 Jun 2004 18:08:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406132308.i5DN8M215890@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 132235 SWOMCD SPC MCD 132234 MNZ000-SDZ000-140030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1252 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0534 PM CDT SUN JUN 13 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN SD THROUGH CNTRL MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 132234Z - 140030Z ISOLATED STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NERN MN SWWD THROUGH NRN SD. OWING TO LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE FROM NE SD THROUGH CNTRL MN WITH MLCAPE FROM 500 TO 800 J/KG...BUT WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES. UNIDIRECTIONAL NATURE OF THE WIND PROFILES ARE LIMITING DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO SOME DEGREE. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL FLOW IS STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT 30-40 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR...SUFFICIENT FOR MID LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION. STORMS MAY INCREASE OVER NERN SD NEXT FEW HOURS AS ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH BETTER CONDITIONS THE ATMOSPHERE FOR DEEP CONVECTION. POTENTIAL FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION... STEEP LAPSE RATES AND LOW WET BULB ZERO LEVELS SUGGEST HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. RELATIVELY HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS MAY ALSO ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS. MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT. ..DIAL.. 06/13/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR... 45779565 45189588 44639849 45709896 45829727  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 13 23:55:38 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 13 Jun 2004 18:55:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406132355.i5DNtL202616@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 132354 SWOMCD SPC MCD 132354 MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-140100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1253 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0654 PM CDT SUN JUN 13 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NEB...SWRN IA...NW MO AND NERN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 461... VALID 132354Z - 140100Z CONVECTIVE TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR STORMS TO WEAKEN DURING THE PAST HOUR...AND THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. UNLESS STORMS BEGIN TO SHOW SIGNS OF REINTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT HOUR...WW 461 WILL LIKELY BE CANCELLED BEFORE 01Z. SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM N CNTRL KS INTO SERN NEB. EARLIER INTENSE SUPERCELL THAT DEVELOPED IN VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY OVER SE NEB HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY AS IT MOVES INTO SW IA. OTHER HIGHER BASED CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED IN ZONE OF DEEPER MIXING FARTHER W ACROSS N CNTRL KS IS TAPPING INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE AS IT CONTINUES EWD. HOWEVER...THE ATMOSPHERE HAS EXPERIENCED LIMITED RECOVERY IN WAKE OF LAST NIGHTS MCS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE LOWER 60S AND MLCAPE FROM 500 TO 1000 J/KG. WITH LACK OF LARGER SCALE FORCING AND LIMITED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...BOUNDARY LAYER PROCESSES WILL BE NEEDED TO SUSTAIN MORE ROBUST CONVECTION. THOUGH AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM OR TWO COULD STILL DEVELOP NEXT HOUR OR SO AS STORMS MOVE THROUGH INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS NE KS/NW MO...LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING SUGGESTS OVERALL TREND SHOULD BE FOR ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO DECREASE. ..DIAL.. 06/13/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP... 40579722 40879615 41429585 41149452 39739459 39209553 39569688 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 14 00:31:50 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 13 Jun 2004 19:31:50 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406140031.i5E0VU216914@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 140031 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140030 PAZ000-NYZ000-OHZ000-MIZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-140200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1254 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0730 PM CDT SUN JUN 13 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN IND...OH...AND FAR NWRN PA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 463... VALID 140030Z - 140200Z CONTINUE WW. AT 0015Z...LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED FROM 50E TOL TO 30E BMG. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CELLS WERE LOCATED IN ADVANCE OF PRIMARY LINE ACROSS N-CENTRAL OH AND ARE ALSO DEVELOPING ACROSS EXTREME SWRN OH. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES INSTABILITY AXIS IN ADVANCE OF ONGOING CONVECTION EWD INTO FAR WRN PA...WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. THE 00Z PIT SOUNDING INDICATES MLCAPE VALUES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG...WITH VALUES GENERALLY 1000-2000 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF OH PER RUC OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. WIND FIELDS REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY STRONG PER ILN AND CLE VAD PROFILES TO SUSTAIN ORGANIZED LINE OF SEVERE STORMS WITH THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THE 21Z RUC INDICATES THAT SWLY 850MB FLOW WILL INTENSIFY TO AROUND 40KT ACROSS NWRN PA BY 06Z...AND SHOULD SUPPORT CONVECTION ENEWD INTO NWRN PA/WRN NY LATER TONIGHT. ..BANACOS.. 06/14/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...IND... 38998254 39008622 42368314 42357924 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 14 01:24:38 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 13 Jun 2004 20:24:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406140124.i5E1OJ206680@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 140123 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140123 OHZ000-KYZ000-VAZ000-TNZ000-140300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1255 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0823 PM CDT SUN JUN 13 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TN THROUGH ERN KY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 462... VALID 140123Z - 140300Z TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR STORMS TO WEAKEN IN TN PORTION OF WW 462. OTHER STORMS HAVE INTENSIFIED ACROSS NRN KY AND THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL NEXT 2 HOURS OR SO. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. GIVEN STABILIZING EFFECTS ASSOCIATED WITH COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER...IT IS PROBABLE THAT STORMS OVER TN WILL NOT REINTENSIFY. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY ACROSS CNTRL/ERN KY WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG AND VERTICAL SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST FOR ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS AS IT MOVES NEWD THROUGH AXIS OF INSTABILITY. ..DIAL.. 06/14/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX... 35708562 36708499 37508467 37528549 38798424 38798272 37228347 35798366 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 14 03:12:07 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 13 Jun 2004 22:12:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406140311.i5E3Br219706@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 140308 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140308 PAZ000-NYZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-140445- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1256 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1008 PM CDT SUN JUN 13 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN /SRN OH...FAR NRN WV...WRN PA AND FAR SWRN NY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 463... VALID 140308Z - 140445Z A REPLACEMENT WW WILL LIKELY BY 04Z BE NEEDED FOR ERN PORTIONS OF WW 463 AS WELL AS AREAS DOWNSTREAM OF WW 463. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS AND SFC DATA SUGGEST THAT MODERATE INSTABILITY AXIS REMAINED OVER WRN PA/SWRN NY WITH MUCAPES FROM 1500-2000 J/KG EAST OF WW 463 AND AHEAD OF WELL DEVELOPED CONVECTIVE LINE MOVING THROUGH ERN/SRN OH. EAST OF THIS AXIS...SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET DEEP STABLE AIRMASS EXISTED AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE EWD THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS INTO CENTRAL PA AND MOST OF SWRN NY LATER TONIGHT. EWD MOTION OF AROUND 40 KTS OF INDIVIDUAL BOWING SEGMENTS OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE LINE SUGGESTS THAT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. RECENT AREAL VWP DATA INDICATES INCREASINGLY STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR WHICH MAY FAVOR BRIEF TORNADOES WITH THE STRONGEST BOWING SEGMENTS. ..CROSBIE.. 06/14/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN... 39028516 39918362 40598206 41188121 42168042 42297926 41867905 40787966 38978156 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 14 04:20:12 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 13 Jun 2004 23:20:12 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406140419.i5E4Ju214490@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 140419 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140418 IAZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-140645- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1257 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1118 PM CDT SUN JUN 13 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NEB...THROUGH PARTS OF WRN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 140418Z - 140645Z THREAT FOR ISOLATED HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY SPREAD EWD THROUGH SERN SD...SWRN MN...NE NEB AND PARTS OF WRN IA NEXT FEW HOURS. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK ARE MOVING EWD THROUGH CNTRL SD INTO N CNTRL NEB. MID LEVEL ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO PROMOTE ELEVATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS ERN SD...SWRN MN INTO EXTREME NRN NEB. SWLY LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS SRN NEB IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE 00Z RAOB DATA SHOWED AN AREA OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR OVER KS...AND AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AND VEERS...THETA-E ADVECTION WILL INCREASE THROUGH ERN NEB INTO PARTS OF IA INTO THE EARLY MORNING. THE RETURNING HIGHER THETA-E AIR BELOW COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT DESTABILIZATION AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES NEWD WITH TIME. GIVEN PRESENCE OF CAP AND MOSTLY MID LEVEL ASCENT EXPECTED IN THIS AREA...STORMS WILL NOT LIKELY TAP INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR. HOWEVER...STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PRESENCE OF MID LEVEL ASCENT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO PROMOTE MID LEVEL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER MAY ENHANCE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. ..DIAL.. 06/14/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX... 43279438 42649388 42089454 42059620 42239760 42809799 43679746 44089567 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 14 04:57:30 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 13 Jun 2004 23:57:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406140457.i5E4vB228933@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 140456 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140456 IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-140730- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1258 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1156 PM CDT SUN JUN 13 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SERN NEB...SRN IA AND EXTREME NW MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 140456Z - 140730Z THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM PARTS OF EXTREME SERN NEB... INTO SRN IA AND EXTREME NRN MO WITHIN THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW LATER THIS MORNING. A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LEFT FROM THIS EVENINGS SUPERCELL EXTENDS FROM NRN MO NWWD THROUGH SERN NEB. THE LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND VEER ACROSS SERN NEB LATER THIS MORNING AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SD CONTINUES EWD TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY. THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL SUPPORT ADVECTION OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR OVER KS NEWD INTO NEB AND IA. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT NEWD DESTABILIZATION INTO ERN NEB/IA WITH TIME. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING AS STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET ENHANCES LIFT ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. GIVEN EXPECTED STRONGER LOW LEVEL FORCING THAN WITH STORMS DEVELOPING FARTHER N...THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE ANY STORMS DEVELOPING IN THIS REGIME WILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO THE HIGHER LOW LEVEL THETA-E AIR. ..DIAL.. 06/14/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX... 40459441 40349567 41259621 41929445 41669223 40819228 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 14 06:42:01 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 14 Jun 2004 01:42:01 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406140641.i5E6fg207112@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 140641 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140640 PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-140845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1259 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0140 AM CDT MON JUN 14 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN PA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 464... VALID 140640Z - 140845Z REMAINING VALID PORTIONS OF WW WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 08Z. STRONGER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION IS BEGINNING TO SHIFT EAST OF SURFACE WARM FRONT...WHICH EXTENDS ROUGHLY ACROSS THE BUFFALO NY AREA INTO THE VICINITY OF PITTSBURGH. GIVEN COOLER LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA...AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION... DESTABILIZATION DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY TO BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT CONTINUING EASTWARD SEVERE THREAT. OTHERWISE...STRONGER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TRAILING BACK INTO SURFACE WARM SECTOR ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. BOUNDARY LAYER INFLOW INTO THIS ACTIVITY FROM THE WEST CONTINUES TO SLOWLY COOL...AND POTENTIAL INSTABILITY IS WANING. ..KERR.. 06/14/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX... 39668180 40258108 40478076 40738042 40628019 40507987 39898024 39168130 39228183 39548198 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 14 10:27:13 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 14 Jun 2004 05:27:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406141026.i5EAQv212301@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 141026 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141025 ILZ000-IAZ000-141300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1260 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0525 AM CDT MON JUN 14 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN IA INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 141025Z - 141300Z CONTINUE WW 465...AREAS TO THE EAST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL WW. LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FRONTAL ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH BROAD TROUGH IN MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S. HAS BECOME FOCUS FOR INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT PAST FEW HOURS. ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET OUT OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA/ NORTHEAST KANSAS/NORTHWEST MISSOURI...WHERE SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE IN THE MID 60S...IS STEEPENING ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA...AND FORCING PARCELS TO CONDENSATION AND EVENTUAL LEVEL OF FREE CONVECTION. CAPE APPEARS TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG...SUPPORTING VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS WITH LARGE HAIL IN FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP EAST OF THE MOLINE IL AREA NEAR/SHORTLY AFTER 12Z...CONTINUING INTO AREAS SOUTH/WEST OF CHICAGO BY THE 15-17Z TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...PRIMARY CONVECTIVE CLUSTER...WITH DAMAGING WINDS BECOMING INCREASING THREAT IN ADDITION TO HAIL...APPEARS TO BE CURRENTLY EVOLVING TO THE WEST OF THE DES MOINES AREA. THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH FOCUSED MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH/COUPLED JET STREAKS EMBEDDED WITHIN BROADER CYCLONIC FLOW...WHICH WILL SHIFT ACROSS DES MOINES BY 12Z...INTO THE CEDAR RAPIDS/OTTUMWA AREAS BY 15Z. ..KERR.. 06/14/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...DVN...DMX... 42069431 42479336 42239216 42069065 42008943 41918836 40998833 40578936 40559107 40799293 41049414 41709466 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 14 12:43:36 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 14 Jun 2004 07:43:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406141243.i5EChI217941@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 141242 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141242 ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-141445- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1261 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0742 AM CDT MON JUN 14 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN IA INTO NRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 465...466... VALID 141242Z - 141445Z CONTINUE REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 465 TIL 14Z EXPIRATION. CONTINUE WW 466. AREAS TO THE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL INDIANA ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL WW. LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH...ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS. LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN SUB-CLOUD LAYER NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO EVOLUTION OF COLD POOL ON LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTIVE CLUSTER. MESO HIGH HAS BECOME EVIDENT IN 12Z SURFACE DATA ALONG A MOLINE/BURLINGTON/LAMONI AXIS...AND FURTHER STRENGTHENING APPEARS POSSIBLE NEXT FEW HOURS. THERE IS SOME CONCERN ABOUT DOWNSTREAM ADVECTION OF ANVIL CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION DUE TO STRONG MID/UPPER SHEAR...WHICH COULD LIMIT INSOLATION AHEAD OF CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. HOWEVER...ANY SURFACE HEATING WHICH OCCURS WILL ENHANCE SURFACE PRESSURE PERTURBATION... CONTRIBUTING TO RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS ALONG GUST FRONT AS IT PROPAGATES EAST SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG/NORTH OF INTERSTATE 74 THROUGH THE PEORIA AND BLOOMINGTON/NORMAL AREAS BY 15Z. ..KERR.. 06/14/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX... 41249248 42249079 42208925 41548782 40438772 39998858 39919009 40409300 40889370 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 14 14:08:00 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 14 Jun 2004 09:08:00 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406141407.i5EE7g207704@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 141407 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141406 PAZ000-OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-141500- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1262 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0906 AM CDT MON JUN 14 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IND...SRN LWR MI AND NRN OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 141406Z - 141500Z A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY ACROSS NRN IND...NRN OH AND SRN LWR MI. DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL INCREASE. BOW ECHO IS MOVING EWD THROUGH NRN IL AT 40-45 KTS AND IS EXTRAPOLATED TO BE IN NWRN OH/SERN LWR MI BY 18Z AND NERN OH BY 22Z. DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND GIVEN UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND REGIME...TSTMS SHOULD INTENSIFY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BOW ECHO WILL PROBABLY INCREASE ITS FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. GIVEN DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL...A WATCH WILL BE NEEDED DOWNSTREAM WELL EWD INTO NERN OH. ..RACY.. 06/14/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT... 42238719 42668056 40818051 40508720 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 14 18:53:27 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 14 Jun 2004 13:53:27 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406141853.i5EIrB210160@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 141729 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141729 OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-141900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1267 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1229 PM CDT MON JUN 14 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...LWR MI...NERN IND...NRN OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 467...468... VALID 141729Z - 141900Z BOW ECHO HAS ACCELERATED AND IS NOW MOVING ENEWD 45-48 KTS ACROSS SRN LWR MI AND NRN IND. CURRENT EXTRAPOLATION HAS THE LEADING EDGE DTW-TOL LINE BY 20Z...CLE 22Z AND NWRN PA/OH BORDER BY 23Z. FURTHER ACCELERATION IS POSSIBLE. CONSIDERABLE WIND DAMAGE HAS BEEN REPORTED THROUGHOUT NRN IND AND SRN LWR MI AND GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS INSTABILITY...THIS IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE. PSBL 65+ KT WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY ACROSS SERN LWR MI AND NRN OH THIS AFTERNOON. TSTMS MAY TEND TO BUILD SWD INTO PORTIONS OF ECNTRL IND AND CNTRL OH THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. MEANWHILE...FARTHER N...VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MIGRATING ACROSS WI. MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THERMAL RIDGE EXTENDING NWD INTO THE THUMB AREA TOWARD ALPENA WHERE MLCAPES WERE 1000-1500 J/KG. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NWRN LWR MI AND MOVE EWD DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON. FALLING H5 TEMPERATURES COUPLED WITH MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ORGANIZED TSTMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. OTHER TSTMS ALONG NRN ROTATING COMMA HEAD OF THE BOW ECHO EWD INTO CNTRL LOWER MI MAY ALSO POSE LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREATS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ISOLD TORNADOES MAY ALSO OCCUR GIVEN LOWER LCLS AND BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW VCNTY THE MCV FROM THE GRAND RAPIDS AREA EWD TO THE THUMB AREA. ..RACY.. 06/14/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CLE...ILN...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...IND... 39808706 41168578 42418564 43008628 45378628 45688256 42788255 42908061 40458071 40088467  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 14 19:22:00 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 14 Jun 2004 14:22:00 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406141921.i5EJLf227717@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 141921 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141920 PAZ000-NYZ000-OHZ000-142115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1268 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0220 PM CDT MON JUN 14 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NY AND NWRN PA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 141920Z - 142115Z BOW ECHO MOVING THROUGH NWRN OH/SERN LWR MI SHOULD MAINTAIN INTENSITY AS IT TRANSLATES ACROSS SWRN ONT AND NRN OH AND A SEVERE TSTM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS WRN NY AND NWRN PA. BOW ECHO WAS MOVING EWD AT AROUND 45 KTS AND EXTRAPOLATION HAS IT TO CLEVELAND BY 22Z AND INTO WRN NY/NWRN PA 23-00Z. NORTH WEBSTER VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWS A CLASSIC REAR INFLOW JET SIGNATURE WITH 50-60 KTS ABOVE 1 KM. THE BOW ECHO IS WELL-DEVELOPED AND HAS BEEN PRODUCING WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE THROUGHOUT NRN IND/SRN LWR MI. 18Z SOUNDING FROM PITTSBURGH WAS NOT PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE...BUT A FEW MORE HOURS OF HEATING AHEAD OF THE BOW WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN THE RISK OF TSTMS THROUGH THE EVENING. STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW REGIME SHOULD CONTINUE SUPPORTING BOWS AND LEWPS AS THE MCS TRANSLATES INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION/UPPER OH VLY. THUS...WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL SHOULD CONTINUE DOWNSTREAM AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. ..RACY.. 06/14/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE... 43998057 44167686 41887680 41287794 41018062 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 14 19:37:17 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 14 Jun 2004 14:37:17 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406141936.i5EJax206588@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 141934 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141934 MNZ000-NDZ000-142200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1269 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0234 PM CDT MON JUN 14 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND ERN ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 141934Z - 142200Z THREAT OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS SEVERE WIND GUSTS ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN ND BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 19Z INDICATES INCREASING CONVECTIVE TRENDS ACROSS W-CENTRAL ND...JUST TO THE SOUTH OF A FAST MOVING/LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN ND THIS AFTERNOON...AND GRADUALLY INCREASE AS MID-LEVEL JET ACROSS MT EJECTS EWD FROM UPSTREAM...SRN ALBERTA TROUGH. THE 12Z ETA SHOWS SFC-6KM SHEAR INCREASING FROM 35KT TO 55KT BETWEEN 20-03Z...WHICH WILL FAVOR THUNDERSTORM ORGANIZATION. LIMITING FACTOR ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA IS INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...SURFACE HEATING/STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH -17C TEMPERATURES AT 500MB WILL CONTRIBUTE TO 100MB MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 500 J/KG. WBZ HEIGHTS SHOULD REMAIN LOW...AROUND 7 KFT. A FEW LONG-LIVED/LOW-TOPPED STORMS MAY DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON GIVEN MODERATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WITH THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL OR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ..BANACOS.. 06/14/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... 45960018 46070221 47420305 48950295 48920011 48479850 47759771 46599669 45989658  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 14 20:19:53 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 14 Jun 2004 15:19:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406142019.i5EKJZ202250@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 142016 SWOMCD SPC MCD 142015 ILZ000-MOZ000-142145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1270 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0315 PM CDT MON JUN 14 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN MO...AND W-CENTRAL IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 142015Z - 142145Z MESOSCALE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM HOWARD/RANDOLPH COUNTIES IN N-CENTRAL MO ESEWD INTO THE ST. LOUIS METRO AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ADDITIONAL WW MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS ERN MO INTO W-CENTRAL IL. STRONG HEATING CONTINUES IN VICINITY OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LEFT FROM MORNING CONVECTION ACROSS ERN MO INTO W-CENTRAL IL. THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN HOWARD/RANDOLPH COUNTIES IS IN FAR ERN PORTION OF WW 469. ALTHOUGH VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DECREASING CU EAST OF THIS CELL AND ONLY WEAK CONVERGENCE PER SURFACE OBS...SOME POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY EVENING IN THE AREA. RUC OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS FIELDS SHOW AIR MASS BEING UNCAPPED AT 20Z. SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 AND DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 ARE CONTRIBUTE TO 100MB MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500-3000 J/KG ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. ST. LOUIS VAD INDICATES WEAK LOW-LEVEL WIND ENVIRONMENT... SUGGESTING DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL WILL LIKELY BE PRIMARY THREAT IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP EWD INTO ERN MO AND/OR W-CENTRAL IL WITH TIME. ..BANACOS.. 06/14/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX... 39899253 39689136 39439017 39298980 38958939 38738939 38418979 38189009 38099037 38099127 38149198 38169259  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 14 20:32:21 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 14 Jun 2004 15:32:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406142032.i5EKW3210404@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 142029 SWOMCD SPC MCD 142028 MIZ000-142200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1271 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0328 PM CDT MON JUN 14 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CNTRL LWR MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 468... VALID 142028Z - 142200Z MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTICITY CENTER THAT EVOLVED FROM THE FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS IS TRACKING ENEWD TOWARD THE THUMB REGION OF LWR MI. A FEW TSTMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP VCNTY THIS FEATURE AND ARE ATTEMPTING TO BUILD NEWD INTO NRN LWR MI. HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL APPEARS TO BE ACROSS AREAS EAST OF INTERSTATE 75 AND SOUTH OF A OSCODA-HOUGHTON LAKE LINE. FARTHER N...CLOUD CANOPY ALLOWED THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO COOL AND 18Z GAYLORD MI SOUNDING WAS NOT PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE. CLOUDS MAY CLEAR SUFFICIENTLY FOR A LITTLE RECOVERY THIS EVENING. MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO TRACK EWD ACROSS WI AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES/ENHANCED VERTICAL SHEAR HAVE BEEN AIDING STRENGTHENING TSTMS UPSTREAM. SO...DESPITE THE RECENT LULL IN ACTIVITY ALONG NRN PORTIONS OF THE WEATHER WATCH...THE THREATS FOR HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS MAY INCREASE SOMEWHAT IN A COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. AS A RESULT...WILL MAINTAIN NRN/ERN PORTIONS OF WEATHER WATCH 468. ..RACY.. 06/14/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR... 43388626 45358630 45718260 42898256 42958422 43308477 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 14 20:48:16 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 14 Jun 2004 15:48:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406142047.i5EKlw220415@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 142045 SWOMCD SPC MCD 142045 NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-142245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1272 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0345 PM CDT MON JUN 14 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WV PANHANDLE...S-CENTRAL/SERN PA...NRN DE...AND MD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 142045Z - 142245Z INCREASING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS S-CENTRAL/SERN PA...MD...AND THE ERN WV PANHANDLE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WW MAY BE REQUIRED ACROSS THE REGION. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF S-CENTRAL PA/MD/WRN WV. REDUCTION OF HIGH CLOUDS DURING PAST SEVERAL HOURS HAS ALLOWED FOR BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION...WITH 100MB MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG ACROSS THE DISCUSSION REGION. SRN PA/MD VICINITY IS ON SRN FRINGE OF STRONGER WSWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER ...UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN OF MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD OCCUR THROUGH THIS EVENING AS GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MCS CONTINUE EWD. THEREFORE...THREAT EXISTS FOR INCREASING STORM ORGANIZATION AND FORWARD MOVEMENT ACROSS ESPECIALLY SRN/SERN PA...WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA BY EARLY EVENING. ..BANACOS.. 06/14/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...CTP...LWX... 39437847 40047818 40477723 40687633 40687579 40557512 40167487 39257591 39007692 39037744 39157826  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 14 21:01:01 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 14 Jun 2004 16:01:01 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406142100.i5EL0h227832@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 142056 SWOMCD SPC MCD 142055 COZ000-142300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1273 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0355 PM CDT MON JUN 14 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 142055Z - 142300Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL INCREASING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE...MAINLY FROM COS NWD TO THE WY BORDER. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE WW. CONVECTION FORMING OVER HIGHER TERRAIN IS NOW PRODUCING LIGHTNING WEST OF THE I-29 CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S WITH SBCAPES NOW AROUND 1500 J/KG. SURFACE WINDS REMAIN ELY NORTH OF THE PALMER DIVIDE AND ARE ENHANCING THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR UNDER MODERATE WLY FLOW ALOFT. COMBINATION OF 40-50 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY SUGGEST A FEW STRONGER CELLS WILL MAINTAIN THEMSELVES EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE PLAINS FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST HIGH-BASED SUPERCELLS...WITH ATTENDANT THREATS OF LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. WW MAY BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. ..EVANS.. 06/14/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU... 38520409 38500520 39620528 40930530 40980442 40980304 38660290 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 14 22:12:00 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 14 Jun 2004 17:12:00 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406142211.i5EMBj206707@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 142210 SWOMCD SPC MCD 142209 MOZ000-KSZ000-142345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1274 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0509 PM CDT MON JUN 14 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...N-CENTRAL/NERN KS AND WRN MO CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 469... VALID 142209Z - 142345Z CONTINUE WW. STRONGEST CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE IN VICINITY OF I-70 CORRIDOR FROM MHK TO COU NEXT 1-3 HOURS. AT 22Z...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ALONG STALLED FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM 15S RSL TO TOP TO 15 N COU. STRONG HEATING ALONG/SOUTH OF BOUNDARY HAS RESULTED IN VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH 100MB MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500-3500 J/KG. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY 70+ ACROSS THE ERN 2/3RDS OF THE WATCH...WITH PW VALUES GENERALLY AROUND 1.75". SURFACE WIND FIELDS HAVE BECOME WEAK IN VICINITY OF BOUNDARY...HOWEVER...WLY SFC-6KM SHEAR OF 30-40 KT AND HIGH INSTABILITY VALUES WILL MAINTAIN THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUE AS PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS. WWD PROPAGATION COMPONENT ALONG BOUNDARY HAS RESULTED IN SLOW STORM MOTIONS...CONTINUING THREAT OF VERY HVY RAIN WITH RATES LOCALLY UP TO 2.5"/HR. ..BANACOS.. 06/14/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC... 38129258 38189848 39919849 39909258 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 15 00:05:43 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 14 Jun 2004 19:05:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406150005.i5F05T203180@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 150003 SWOMCD SPC MCD 150003 PAZ000-NYZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-150130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1275 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0703 PM CDT MON JUN 14 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OH...WRN AND NRN PA... AND WRN THROUGH CNTRL NY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 470... VALID 150003Z - 150130Z THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND WILL PERSIST ANOTHER FEW HOURS FROM SERN OH...THROUGH WRN AND CNTRL PA AND WRN THROUGH CNTRL NY. GREATEST WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE WITH CNTRL/NRN PORTION OF THE LINE FROM CNTRL/NRN PA INTO NY NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS EVENING A SQUALL LINE WITH EMBEDDED BOW ECHOES EXTENDS FROM WRN NY NEAR JAMESTOWN SWWD THROUGH NW PA AND INTO ERN OH. NRN PART OF LINE FROM NW PA THROUGH WRN NY IS MOVING EAST AT 45 TO 50 KT WHILE SRN PART IS MOVING MORE SLOWLY TO THE SE AT 35 TO 40 KT. THE 35 TO 40 KT WSWLY LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE OH VALLEY ASSOCIATED WITH GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EWD INTO PA AND NY THIS EVENING...AND MAY STRENGTHEN A LITTLE FURTHER. THIS WILL MAINTAIN STRONG LOW LEVEL REAR INFLOW INTO THE SQUALL LINE...HELPING TO MAINTAIN FAST FORWARD PROPAGATION ALONG THE NRN PARTS OF THE LINE. TRAILING PART OF LINE FROM ERN OH INTO WRN PA IS BECOMING MORE E-W ORIENTED AND PARALLEL TO THE DEEP LAYER FLOW. MOREOVER...MOIST UNSTABLE SWLY LOW LEVEL INFLOW IMPINGING ON THIS PART OF THE LINE MAY EVENTUALLY PROMOTE SOME BACKBUILDING. THIS SUGGESTS IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE THREAT...POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH TRAINING CELLS MAY INCREASE ACROSS SE OH AND SW PA THIS EVENING. ..DIAL.. 06/15/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE... 40258197 40838066 41387991 42557968 42897867 43357699 43057664 42207657 41617689 40917896 39828201 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 15 00:42:48 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 14 Jun 2004 19:42:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406150042.i5F0gY223102@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 150041 SWOMCD SPC MCD 150041 NYZ000-150145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1276 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0741 PM CDT MON JUN 14 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 150041Z - 150145Z ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING OVER CNTRL NY ARE BEING MONITORED FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. WW 470 MAY NEED TO BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER WW THAT WILL EXTEND FARTHER DOWNSTREAM INTO CNTRL AND ERN NY. A COUPLE OF STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER CNTRL NY NEAR SYRACUSE. THESE STORMS APPEAR TO HAVE DEVELOPED IN CONVERGENCE ZONE ALONG A BOUNDARY SHED BY SRN SHORE LAKE ERIE. INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL...AND MAY SERVE AS A LIMITING FACTOR FOR LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...VERTICAL WIND PROFILES EXHIBIT LOW LEVEL VEERING AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. ..DIAL.. 06/15/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF... 42157626 43517644 44277476 43377406 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 15 01:22:39 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 14 Jun 2004 20:22:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406150122.i5F1MV211649@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 150121 SWOMCD SPC MCD 150121 MOZ000-KSZ000-150215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1277 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0821 PM CDT MON JUN 14 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN MO/NERN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 469... VALID 150121Z - 150215Z IT APPEARS THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS IS DIMINISHING...AND WW 469 SHOULD BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 02Z. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY...AND LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE FOCUSED FARTHER WEST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...SO STORMS WILL HAVE A FAVORED ENVIRONMENT ACROSS WRN KS/ERN CO. ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY PERSIST FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO...BUT A NEW WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ..TAYLOR.. 06/15/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...GID... 39919852 39849255 38149258 38259846 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 15 02:16:45 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 14 Jun 2004 21:16:45 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406150216.i5F2GS207373@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 150213 SWOMCD SPC MCD 150213 NYZ000-PAZ000-150315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1278 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0913 PM CDT MON JUN 14 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN PA THROUGH SRN NY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 470...473... VALID 150213Z - 150315Z THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY PERSIST BEYOND THE EXPIRATION TIME OF 03Z. WW 470 AND 473 MAY NEED TO BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER WW THAT WILL INCLUDE PARTS OF ERN PA AND POSSIBLY INTO SRN NY. ORGANIZED LINE OF STORMS CONTINUES FROM WRN NY SWWD THROUGH CNTRL AND SW PA. STRONGEST STORMS IN THIS LINE REMAIN OVER PA WHERE STRONGER INSTABILITY EXISTS DOWNSTREAM WITH MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG. A COUPLE OF ROTATING COMMA HEADS WERE ALSO NOTED. ONE OVER SRN NY AND THE OTHER OVER CNTRL PA. GREATEST DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE S OF THESE FEATURES ACROSS NRN AND SRN PA WHERE STRONGER REAR INFLOW JETS ARE PROMOTING BOWING LINE SEGMENTS. AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND HAS BEEN OBSERVED AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AND THE ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO STABILIZE. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...AND IF STORMS APPEAR TO MAINTAIN THEIR INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 30-45 MINUTES...A NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED. ..DIAL.. 06/15/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...CTP... 39917855 41077737 42037665 42567585 42327512 41137525 39817626 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 15 02:53:30 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 14 Jun 2004 21:53:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406150253.i5F2rE224998@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 150252 SWOMCD SPC MCD 150252 MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-150445- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1279 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0952 PM CDT MON JUN 14 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SERN NEB THROUGH NERN KS AND NW MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 150252Z - 150445Z PARTS OF NERN KS THROUGH NW MO ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND VERY HEAVY RAIN CURRENTLY APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREAT. HOWEVER...AN INCREASING THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND MIGHT OCCUR LATER THIS EVENING. TRENDS ARE BEGINNING TO SUGGEST STORMS MAY DEVELOP A COLD POOL AND BEGIN TO FORWARD PROPAGATE. A WW MIGHT BE NEEDED SOON. LATE THIS EVENING A CLUSTER OF STORMS HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE SE NEB...NERN KS BORDER N OF A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM NRN MO SWWD THROUGH NRN KS. THE STORMS APPEAR TO HAVE DEVELOPED IN RESPONSE TO AN INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND WARM ADVECTION ABOVE THIS BOUNDARY. IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP A COLD POOL...THEY MAY BEGIN TO PROPAGATE SWD INTO THE STRONGER INSTABILITY...AND THIS WOULD ENHANCE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND IN ADDITION TO HAIL. ..DIAL.. 06/15/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT... 39709791 40279498 38879441 38939748 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 15 03:33:50 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 14 Jun 2004 22:33:50 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406150333.i5F3XX213319@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 150332 SWOMCD SPC MCD 150332 KSZ000-NEZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-150500- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1280 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1032 PM CDT MON JUN 14 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO/WRN KS/SRN NE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 472... VALID 150332Z - 150500Z AS OF 0320Z...MAIN CLUSTER OF SEVERE STORMS IS LOCATED JUST S OF RUSSELL AND HAYS KS. THE DEVELOPING MCS CONTINUES TO BACKBUILD PRESUMABLY ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY AND IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT. THESE STORMS PRIMARILY POSE A LARGE HAIL THREAT. HOWEVER...LATEST PROFILER DATA FROM HAVILAND SHOWS NEARLY 20 KT OF 0-1KM FLOW...SO ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THIS SUPERCELL ENVIRONMENT. FARTHER WEST...STORMS ACROSS ERN CO ARE GRADUALLY MOVING INTO A MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS WRN KS. THE IMMEDIATE CONCERN IS DAMAGING WINDS...WITH 49KT GUST RECENTLY AT LA JUNTA. STORMS IN CO ARE MOVING INTO THE INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS WRN KS...WHICH IS ALSO WHERE A 40KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE FOCUSED OVERNIGHT. NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL INCREASE LARGE SCALE LIFT...AND GFS CONVECTIVE QPF FORECAST SUGGESTS SOME ORGANIZED STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS SW KS FROM 06-12Z. OVERALL SETUP SEEMS TO SUPPORT A REPLACEMENT WATCH FOR HAIL/WIND FOR PARTS OF FAR ERN CO/WRN AND CNTRL KS AND SRN NE. ..TAYLOR.. 06/15/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU... 36969851 37590485 40060471 40349800 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 15 07:02:21 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 15 Jun 2004 02:02:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406150702.i5F723215989@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 150701 SWOMCD SPC MCD 150700 KSZ000-150900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1281 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0200 AM CDT TUE JUN 15 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CNTRL KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 474...475... VALID 150700Z - 150900Z CONTINUE REMAINING VALID PORTIONS OF WWS. NEW WW MAY BE NECESSARY ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS BY CURRENT 09Z EXPIRATION. COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE CLUSTER OF STORMS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS IS NOW PROGRESSING THROUGH/EAST OF THE HILL CITY/GARDEN CITY AREAS. MOST RAPID EASTWARD ACCELERATION...AT SPEEDS UP TO 30 KT... IS OCCURRING ON NORTHERN FLANK OF SQUALL LINE...NORTH OF REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/WEAK SURFACE FRONT...WHICH EXTENDS EASTWARD ALONG/JUST NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW TO THE NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY IS ENHANCING INFLOW/CONVERGENCE ALONG COLD POOL...AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR BENEATH 20 TO 30 KT WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW. GIVEN FAVORABLE LARGE-SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME BENEATH DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD...WHICH WILL REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH DAYBREAK...INTENSE CONVECTION WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH IN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH CAPE OF 2000 TO 4000 J/KG. RISK OF LARGE HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS WILL CONTINUE...AND GUSTY WINDS MAY CONTINUE TO ACCOMPANY NORTHERN FLANK OF SQUALL LINE INTO THE CONCORDIA AREA BY 09-10Z. THEREAFTER...MERGER WITH ONGOING ACTIVITY NEAR MANHATTAN MAY OCCUR ...WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THE CONCORDIA/MANHATTAN/SALINA AREAS BY DAYBREAK. ..KERR.. 06/15/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD... 38879999 39209962 39749921 39759862 39789777 39559700 39009659 38669624 38299669 38299733 38159819 37939895 37540000 37750079 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 15 09:51:25 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 15 Jun 2004 04:51:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406150951.i5F9p8229641@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 150950 SWOMCD SPC MCD 150950 KSZ000-151145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1282 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0450 AM CDT TUE JUN 15 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 476... VALID 150950Z - 151145Z STRONG 2-HOUR SURFACE PRESSURE RISES ARE NOW EVIDENT ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS...IN RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING/MERGING COLD POOLS. 6-8 MB RISE CENTER HAS SHIFTED FROM THE HILL CITY THROUGH RUSSELL AREAS DURING THE PAST 1 TO 2 HOURS...AND APPEARS LIKELY TO DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE SALINA/HUTCHISON/EMPORIA AREA BY 11Z...BEFORE SLOWLY WEAKENING. UNTIL WEAKENING OCCURS... STRONG...POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...WILL PERSIST ON LEADING EDGE...AND IN WAKE OF THIS FEATURE. OTHERWISE...AS MERGER OF INTENSE UPDRAFTS OCCURS EAST/SOUTHEAST OF SALINA DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAIN TOTALS STILL APPEAR POSSIBLE ON NOSE OF VEERING LOW-LEVEL JET...BEFORE IT SLOWLY WEAKENS AFTER DAYBREAK. ..KERR.. 06/15/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...DDC... 38599858 38919796 39249766 39559690 39339614 38639545 37919613 37989738 37689849 37939949 38309939 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 15 12:08:37 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 15 Jun 2004 07:08:37 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406151208.i5FC8M209751@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 151207 SWOMCD SPC MCD 151207 MOZ000-KSZ000-151330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1283 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0707 AM CDT TUE JUN 15 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SE KS INTO W CNTRL/SW MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 476... VALID 151207Z - 151330Z SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DIMINISHING INTO MID MORNING...AND NEW WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. STRONGER SURFACE COLD POOL AND MOST INTENSE CONVECTION IS NOW EAST/SOUTHEAST OF EMPORIA AND WICHITA. ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE SPREADING EAST SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH MOIST UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER TO THE SOUTH OF OLD CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTH OF KANSAS CITY INTO THE MISSOURI OZARKS. WHILE CURRENT 40 KT FORWARD MOTION INDICATES CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WILL PROGRESS EAST OF THE REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW BY 13Z...POSSIBLY INTO AREAS NEAR/NORTHWEST OF SPRINGFIELD BY 15Z...ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT ONGOING WEAKENING TRENDS WILL CONTINUE. MID/UPPER RIDGING EAST THROUGH NORTH OF CLOSED CIRCULATION OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST EXTENDS INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI...AND APPEARS LIKELY TO PROVE INHIBITIVE TO THE FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS. AS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...SURFACE COLD POOL AND ASSOCIATED GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS WELL. ..KERR.. 06/15/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT... 38189559 38719534 38579405 38049331 37089357 37079542 37419598 37849597 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 15 13:55:28 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 15 Jun 2004 08:55:28 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406151355.i5FDtB211716@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 151354 SWOMCD SPC MCD 151354 OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-151600- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1284 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0854 AM CDT TUE JUN 15 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL IL...CNTRL/SRN IND AND WCNTRL/SWRN OH CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 151354Z - 151600Z DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY TSTMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY ISOLD AND A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS A FRONT ORIENTED E-W SITUATED FROM CNTRL IL INTO CNTRL OH. AIR MASS VCNTY FRONT WAS MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES NEAR 1000 J/KG WITH WEAKENING CINH. 12Z H5 CHART DEPICTS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MIGRATING THROUGH IL AND IS AIDING A CLUSTER OF TSTMS OVER CNTRL IL. THIS CLUSTER SHOULD EXPAND/DEVELOP EWD ALONG THE FRONT THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. MIDLEVEL RIDGE HAS EXPANDED NWD...WITH FASTER CORRIDOR OF WLYS NOW LOCATED THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. VWPS FROM NORTH WEBSTER/ INDIANAPOLIS/WILMINGTON AND PROFILER AT WOLCOTT IND SUGGEST THAT TSTM CLUSTERS ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE EMBEDDED IN RELATIVELY WEAK UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW REGIME. THUS...STRONG BOWING LINE SEGMENTS ARE PROBABLY NOT LIKELY. THE 12Z SOUNDING FROM WILMINGTON...HOWEVER...DOES SHOW HIGH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS IN THE CLOUD LAYER THAT MAY RESULT IN DOWNDRAFT ACCELERATION. DCAPE ACROSS THE REGION CURRENTLY IS IN THE 500-800 J/KG RANGE. THUS... ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. ..RACY.. 06/15/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...ILX...LSX... 40038989 40288618 40438402 40308296 39218302 38908546 38818944 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 15 14:54:59 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 15 Jun 2004 09:54:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406151454.i5FEsk221109@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 151453 SWOMCD SPC MCD 151452 FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-151645- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1285 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0952 AM CDT TUE JUN 15 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SERN AL...SWRN GA AND WRN/CNTRL FL PNHDL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 151452Z - 151645Z ISOLD TORNADO/DAMAGING WIND THREATS APPEAR TO BE INCREASING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SERN AL...SWRN GA AND WRN FL PNHDL. AREA WILL BE UPGRADED TO A CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK. BANDS OF TSTMS CONTINUE TO FEED NWD AROUND ERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER ERN TX. TSTMS ARE DEVELOPING IN AN AIR MASS THAT IS VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S. MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS STRONGEST SURFACE FLOW WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE WRN FL PNHDL AND SERN AL. STREAMLINES DEPICT A BOUNDARY SITUATED NW-SE ACROSS CNTRL MS INTO SRN AL. VWPS VCNTY THIS BOUNDARY SUGGEST THAT 0-1KM SHEAR IS INCREASING WITHIN THE LOW LCL ENVIRONMENT INDICATIVE OF AN ISOLD TORNADO THREAT. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE MINIMAL INSOLATION. BUT...TSTMS THAT DEVELOP OVER THE GULF WILL MOVE NWD INTO THE ZONE OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL HELICITY AND MAY BEGIN TO EXHIBIT LOW LEVEL ROTATION ACROSS CNTRL/SERN AL...SWRN GA AND THE WRN/CNTRL FL PNHDL. ..RACY.. 06/15/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN... 29408649 30668663 31428773 32008837 32388845 33188832 33688791 33288606 32188431 30418374 29258457 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 15 18:19:10 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 15 Jun 2004 13:19:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406151818.i5FIIs230780@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 151818 SWOMCD SPC MCD 151817 MNZ000-SDZ000-NEZ000-152015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1286 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0117 PM CDT TUE JUN 15 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN SD...SWRN MN AND NCNTRL/NERN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 151817Z - 152015Z TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE OVER SCNTRL/SERN SD AROUND 20Z AND GRADUALLY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. A WEATHER WATCH WILL LIKELY BY 20Z. 18Z MESOANALYSIS PLACES A 1009 MB LOW NEAR PIERRE WITH A WARM FRONT EWD INTO WCNTRL MN. PRESSURE FALLS HAVE BEEN INCREASING OVER ERN SD AND SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS ACCELERATED ACROSS NWRN NEB INTO SCNTRL SD IN RESPONSE. CONSEQUENTLY...ENHANCED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS CENTERED BETWEEN PIERRE AND HURON. VSBL IMAGERY SHOWS LINES OF CU/TCU FROM SD COUNTIES OF HAND-BUFFALO-ERN TRIPP AND THEN SWWD INTO CHERRY COUNTY NEB. WARM ADVECTION...MOSTLY ELEVATED TSTM CLUSTER...IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE SD BORDER INTO SWRN MN AND WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SPORADIC LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...MAIN ATTENTION HAS TURNED TO AREAS FARTHER WEST. AIR MASS ACROSS NCNTRL NEB AND SERN SD WAS BECOMING INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE OWING TO TEMPERATURES RISING THROUGH THE 70S/80S AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOW-MID 60S. RUC2 POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT GIVEN THE ENHANCED CONVERGENCE...CINH WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY GIVEN MID 80S TEMPERATURES. THUS...TSTMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP NEAR 20Z ACROSS SCNTRL/SERN SD. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-45 KTS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS AND LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY. ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP EWD AND SWWD INTO SWRN MN AND NCNTRL/NERN NEB DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ..RACY.. 06/15/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...UNR... 45299723 45089444 44339442 43849516 43559662 43139718 42739784 42049892 41780025 42090141 43909976 44439939 44669894 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 15 18:24:07 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 15 Jun 2004 13:24:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406151823.i5FINp202313@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 151823 SWOMCD SPC MCD 151822 PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-152015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1287 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0122 PM CDT TUE JUN 15 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL IN...CENTRAL AND SRN OH...EXTREME NRN KY / NWRN WV / WRN PA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 151822Z - 152015Z ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS E-W ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHERE AIR MASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLY MORNING CONVECTION INTERSECTS THIS FRONT OVER EXTREME WRN IN AND IS CAUSING STORMS TO BECOME LOCALLY ENHANCED DUE TO STRONGER FORCING. ALTHOUGH LOW TO MID LEVEL WIND PROFILES ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR LONG LIVED CONVECTION...STORMS IN VICINITY OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY / STATIONARY FRONT INTERSECTION ALONG WITH MARGINAL 20-40 KT MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW SUGGEST STORMS IN THESE AREAS WILL BE THE STRONGEST...AND WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED HAIL AND WIND AS THEY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND PROPAGATE EWD ALONG FRONT. FURTHER E ALONG FRONTAL ZONE...MOST PULSE CONVECTION WILL REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...BUT ISOLATED AND BRIEF SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. ..JEWELL.. 06/15/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...ILX... 40368705 40688371 40888104 41048010 40717950 40007954 39338083 38968150 38508252 38888752 39098761 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 15 18:24:39 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 15 Jun 2004 13:24:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406151824.i5FION202631@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 151818 SWOMCD SPC MCD 151817 MNZ000-SDZ000-NEZ000-152015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1286 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0117 PM CDT TUE JUN 15 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN SD...SWRN MN AND NCNTRL/NERN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 151817Z - 152015Z TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE OVER SCNTRL/SERN SD AROUND 20Z AND GRADUALLY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. A WEATHER WATCH WILL LIKELY BY 20Z. 18Z MESOANALYSIS PLACES A 1009 MB LOW NEAR PIERRE WITH A WARM FRONT EWD INTO WCNTRL MN. PRESSURE FALLS HAVE BEEN INCREASING OVER ERN SD AND SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS ACCELERATED ACROSS NWRN NEB INTO SCNTRL SD IN RESPONSE. CONSEQUENTLY...ENHANCED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS CENTERED BETWEEN PIERRE AND HURON. VSBL IMAGERY SHOWS LINES OF CU/TCU FROM SD COUNTIES OF HAND-BUFFALO-ERN TRIPP AND THEN SWWD INTO CHERRY COUNTY NEB. WARM ADVECTION...MOSTLY ELEVATED TSTM CLUSTER...IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE SD BORDER INTO SWRN MN AND WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SPORADIC LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...MAIN ATTENTION HAS TURNED TO AREAS FARTHER WEST. AIR MASS ACROSS NCNTRL NEB AND SERN SD WAS BECOMING INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE OWING TO TEMPERATURES RISING THROUGH THE 70S/80S AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOW-MID 60S. RUC2 POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT GIVEN THE ENHANCED CONVERGENCE...CINH WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY GIVEN MID 80S TEMPERATURES. THUS...TSTMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP NEAR 20Z ACROSS SCNTRL/SERN SD. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-45 KTS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS AND LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY. ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP EWD AND SWWD INTO SWRN MN AND NCNTRL/NERN NEB DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ..RACY.. 06/15/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...UNR... 45299723 45089444 44339442 43849516 43559662 43139718 42739784 42049892 41780025 42090141 43909976 44439939 44669894  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 15 18:26:12 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 15 Jun 2004 13:26:12 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406151826.i5FIQ1203430@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 151823 SWOMCD SPC MCD 151822 PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-152015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1287 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0122 PM CDT TUE JUN 15 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL IN...CENTRAL AND SRN OH...EXTREME NRN KY / NWRN WV / WRN PA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 151822Z - 152015Z ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS E-W ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHERE AIR MASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLY MORNING CONVECTION INTERSECTS THIS FRONT OVER EXTREME WRN IN AND IS CAUSING STORMS TO BECOME LOCALLY ENHANCED DUE TO STRONGER FORCING. ALTHOUGH LOW TO MID LEVEL WIND PROFILES ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR LONG LIVED CONVECTION...STORMS IN VICINITY OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY / STATIONARY FRONT INTERSECTION ALONG WITH MARGINAL 20-40 KT MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW SUGGEST STORMS IN THESE AREAS WILL BE THE STRONGEST...AND WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED HAIL AND WIND AS THEY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND PROPAGATE EWD ALONG FRONT. FURTHER E ALONG FRONTAL ZONE...MOST PULSE CONVECTION WILL REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...BUT ISOLATED AND BRIEF SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. ..JEWELL.. 06/15/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...ILX... 40368705 40688371 40888104 41048010 40717950 40007954 39338083 38968150 38508252 38888752 39098761  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 15 18:32:55 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 15 Jun 2004 13:32:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406151832.i5FIWd208254@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 151831 SWOMCD SPC MCD 151830 TXZ000-152000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1288 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0130 PM CDT TUE JUN 15 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NCNTRL/CNTRL TX CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 151830Z - 152000Z ISOLD LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. PRIND THAT A WW WILL NOT BE NEEDED. VSBL SATELLITE SHOWS TSTMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS NCNTRL/CNTRL TX. AIR MASS HAS BEEN ABLE TO HEAT UP WEST OF THE CONVECTION OCCURRING OVER ERN TX WITH TEMPERATURES 85-90F. GIVEN H5 TEMPERATURES OF MINUS 10C ATOP THIS VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...ISOLD LARGE HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. STORM MOTION VECTORS WOULD TAKE THE CONVECTION SWD INTO AREAS OF CNTRL TX LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ..RACY.. 06/15/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT... 31139898 32539845 32739722 32659639 31589692 30109749 30199871 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 15 18:55:15 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 15 Jun 2004 13:55:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406151854.i5FIsx223521@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 151854 SWOMCD SPC MCD 151853 KSZ000-NEZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-152100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1289 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0153 PM CDT TUE JUN 15 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 151853Z - 152100Z TSTMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND COULD BECOME SEVERE ACROSS NERN NM AND ERN CO DURING THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS PARTS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE HAS BEEN ADVECTION WWD ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH MID 40S TO THE URBAN CORRIDOR...MID/UPPER 50S TO PUEBLO AND LIMON AND LOWER-MID 60S IN THE PLAINS. PRESSURES CONTINUE TO FALL UPSTREAM AHEAD OF THE FOUR CORNERS IMPULSE...AND LOW LEVEL SELY FLOW REMAINS STRONG FROM THE TX PNHDL INTO ERN CO. GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BENEATH STEEP MID TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES...MLCAPES RANGE FROM 1200 J/KG ALONG THE FRONT RANGE TO 2500 ON THE PLAINS. MOUNTAIN CONVECTION HAS STARTED EARLY AND HAS STAYED ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN THUS FAR AND MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS. THE PLAINS HAVE REMAINED CAPPED...BUT CINH SHOULD ERODE SUFFICIENTLY WITH MID-UPPER 80S TEMPERATURES AND APPROACH OF THE UPSTREAM IMPULSE. THUS...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES/FRONTS MAY INITIATE ADDITIONAL TSTMS...FIRST ALONG THE URBAN CORRIDOR...THEN OUT ON THE PLAINS. THOUGH MIDLEVEL FLOW IS 25 KTS OR LESS...DIRECTIONAL SHEAR THROUGH THE COLUMN AND STRONG INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE LIKELY. ACTIVITY MAY TEND TO CONGEAL INTO ONE OR MORE MCS/S LATER THIS EVENING. ONE WILL LIKELY EVOLVE ALONG/NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT ACROSS NERN CO INTO NWRN KS/SWRN NEB. A SECOND MCS MAY FORM FROM SERN CO/NERN NM INTO SWRN KS AND THE TX/OK PNHDL. ..RACY.. 06/15/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...CYS...ABQ... 36310528 37770525 38250527 38430533 38620530 38750531 38950526 39130532 40570569 40370488 41290261 41290210 40650133 37160148 36090201 35930363 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 15 19:58:01 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 15 Jun 2004 14:58:01 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406151957.i5FJvj229803@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 151956 SWOMCD SPC MCD 151955 CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-152130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1290 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0255 PM CDT TUE JUN 15 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND ERN PA...SRN NY...NJ...WRN CT...NERN MD AND NRN DE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 151955Z - 152130Z THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS IS INCREASING AND A WW MIGHT BE NEEDED BEFORE 21Z. STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM S-CNTRL NY INTO NWRN PA. SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS INDICATE GREATEST VERTICAL MOTIONS FIELDS CURRENTLY EXTEND FROM CENTRAL PA SWD INTO NRN VA. AIR MASS SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE 1000-1500 J/KG. AREA VWPS INDICATE MID LEVEL WINDS OF 35-50 KTS WHICH IS RESULTING IN FAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR LONG LIVED SEVERE CONVECTION. HODOGRAPHS INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH FORECAST STORM MOTIONS SEWD AROUND 30 KTS. POOR LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT HAIL POTENTIAL. ..JEWELL.. 06/15/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...PBZ... 41587898 42477450 41047187 40477383 38707485 39737769 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 15 20:10:59 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 15 Jun 2004 15:10:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406152010.i5FKAh204533@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 152006 SWOMCD SPC MCD 152005 TXZ000-NMZ000-152200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1291 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0305 PM CDT TUE JUN 15 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM...W TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 152005Z - 152200Z ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY TSTMS THAT DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COVERAGE DOES NOT SEEM TO WARRANT A WW. VSBL SATELLITE SHOWS TCU GROWING INTO TSTMS ALONG THE DRYLINE IN QUAY-CURRY-ROOSEVELT-ERN CHAVES COUNTIES IN NM. TSTMS ARE LIKELY HIGH-BASED...FEEDING ON UNSTABLE DRY PARCELS WEST OF THE DRYLINE ATTM. TUCUMCARI PROFILER SHOWS LESS THAN 20 KTS OF FLOW THROUGH 6KM AND IT IS LIKELY THAT THE STORMS WILL REMAIN MAINLY MULTICELL. ADDITIONAL TSTMS ARE DEVELOPING IN THE SWRN TX MOUNTAINS WHERE AIR MASS HAS HEATED CONSIDERABLY THIS AFTERNOON. MORE MOIST AIR MASS EAST OF THE DRYLINE/MOUNTAINS REMAINS CAPPED...BUT WILL EXPERIENCE WEAKENING CINH AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO HEAT. THIS MAY BE FAVORABLE FOR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TO GENERATE ADDITIONAL TSTMS FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE WRN TX PNHDL AND SWRN TX DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STRONGER UPDRAFTS MAY YIELD ISOLD SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. ..RACY.. 06/15/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ... 30110473 35290352 36330361 36380253 35490234 34840244 33550304 30560318 29040313 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 15 22:21:28 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 15 Jun 2004 17:21:28 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406152221.i5FMLC219138@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 152220 SWOMCD SPC MCD 152219 NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-160015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1292 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0519 PM CDT TUE JUN 15 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 152219Z - 160015Z W CNTRL THROUGH CNTRL NEB ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION. ONCE STORMS MANAGE TO DEVELOP...THEY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. A WW WILL BE NEEDED ONCE INITIATION APPEARS IMMINENT. THIS EVENING A COLD FRONT CONTINUES SWD THROUGH NRN NEB. THE ATMOSPHERE IMMEDIATELY S OF THIS BOUNDARY IS ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE OWING TO SURFACE DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE LOWER 50S. HOWEVER...RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS OBSERVED OVER CNTRL AND SWRN NEB...SUPPORTING MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/G. THIS MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE ADVECTING NWD THIS EVENING. IF STORMS MANAGE TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...HIGH TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS WILL SUPPORT HIGH BASED ACTIVITY OVER NRN NEB. AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS SWD...LCLS WILL LOWER AND STORMS SHOULD INTENSIFY UPON INTERCEPTING RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONGER INSTABILITY. OTHER STORMS OVER NERN CO MAY DEVELOP NEWD INTO PARTS OF SW NEB. ..DIAL.. 06/15/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...BOU... 41090231 41890213 42360037 43009884 42219820 41129944 40610127 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 16 00:08:43 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 15 Jun 2004 19:08:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406160008.i5G08X214867@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 160007 SWOMCD SPC MCD 160007 MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-160100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1293 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0707 PM CDT TUE JUN 15 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME NERN NEB...ERN SD...NW IA AND SW MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 478... VALID 160007Z - 160100Z WW 478 REMAINS LARGELY FREE OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...AND UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING ADDITIONAL INITIATION IN MUCH OF THIS AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR NEXT HOUR OR SO...AND IF ADDITIONAL STORMS FAIL TO DEVELOP...WW 478 MIGHT BE CANCELLED BEFORE ITS EXPIRATION TIME OF 03Z. THIS EVENING A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SWWD THROUGH SERN SD INTO NRN NEB FROM A SURFACE LOW IN ERN SD. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS SEWD FROM THIS LOW THROUGH ERN SD INTO SW MN AND NW IA. BOUNDARY LAYER CUMULUS CONTINUES TO BE OBSERVED ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND NEW STORMS MAY STILL DEVELOP. HOWEVER...INITIAL SUPERCELL THAT DEVELOPED OVER ERN SD HAS DISSIPATED. LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN FARTHER NE ACROSS CNTRL/NRN MN IN RESPONSE TO EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET MIGRATING EWD ACROSS NRN ND AND MN. THIS SUGGESTS STRONGER MASS INFLOW AND FORCING WILL BE FOCUSED FARTHER NE INTO THE COOLER LESS STABLE REGIME. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING LOWERS CONFIDENCE THAT ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO DEVELOP AND PERSIST IN WW 478. ..DIAL.. 06/16/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...ABR... 43559498 42469522 42179659 42429795 42889811 44309792 44769711 44749527 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 16 01:07:21 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 15 Jun 2004 20:07:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406160107.i5G176210598@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 160105 SWOMCD SPC MCD 160104 NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-160200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1294 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0804 PM CDT TUE JUN 15 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 477... VALID 160104Z - 160200Z STORMS CONTINUE MOVING EWD THROUGH ERN CO AT 25 KT WITH THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL THROUGH 02Z. THE STRONGER CONVECTION WILL MOVE EAST OF THIS WATCH AFTER 02Z...AT WHICH TIME WW 477 WILL LIKELY BE CANCELLED EARLY. ..DIAL.. 06/16/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU... 38650212 38090241 38500304 40130269 40830266 40790194 39500206 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 16 02:16:59 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 15 Jun 2004 21:16:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406160216.i5G2Gk213777@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 160215 SWOMCD SPC MCD 160215 MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-160315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1295 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0915 PM CDT TUE JUN 15 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SW MN/SE SD/NE NEB/NW IA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 478... VALID 160215Z - 160315Z ...REPLACEMENT WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR SWRN/CNTRL MN... LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME CUMULUS STILL FORMING ALONG COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS AROUND 40 KT / PER LATEST WDL PROFILER DATA /...WITH LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL COMPONENT FAVORABLE FOR LOW LEVEL ROTATION. STORM MODE IS...HOWEVER...SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION...GIVEN LINEAR FORCING OF COLD FRONT. AT ANY RATE...GIVEN FAVORABLE SHEAR AND ONGOING CONVECTION...NEW WW IS BEING CONSIDERED EAST AND SOUTH OF COLD FRONT...FOR A SMALL PART OF SWRN/WRN MN AND PERHAPS SE SD. ..TAYLOR.. 06/16/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF... 42209502 42199825 42369832 43309825 44259729 44759675 44729499 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 16 03:41:47 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 15 Jun 2004 22:41:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406160341.i5G3fW227151@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 160340 SWOMCD SPC MCD 160339 KSZ000-NEZ000-160515- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1296 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1039 PM CDT TUE JUN 15 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN KS THROUGH SWRN AND CNTRL NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 479...480... VALID 160339Z - 160515Z THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ANOTHER SEVERAL HOURS AS STORMS MOVE THROUGH WRN KS AND SW THROUGH CNTRL NEB. LINE OF STORMS WITH EMBEDDED BOW ECHOES FROM SWRN NEB...SWD THROUGH SRN KS CONTINUES EAST AT 30 TO 35 KT. THIS LINE HAS DEVELOPED A RATHER LARGE COLD POOL. A COUPLE OF MCSS ALSO APPEAR TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LINE...ONE OVER SWRN NEB AND ANOTHER OVER W CNTRL KS. THE POST CONVECTIVE GLD VERTICAL WIND PROFILE SHOWED A 40 TO 50 KT REAR INFLOW JET IN THE 1 TO 2 KM LAYER...AND THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE STRONG BOWING STRUCTURE OBSERVED NOW MOVING THROUGH THOMAS AND DECATUR COUNTIES. STRONG COLD POOL SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN THE LINE AS IT MOVES DOWNSTREAM THROUGH THE AXIS OF STRONG INSTABILITY NEXT FEW HOURS. ..DIAL.. 06/16/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD... 38649867 37219906 37160070 39310093 41230158 41980002 41889853 39659848 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 16 04:09:46 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 15 Jun 2004 23:09:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406160409.i5G49Y206285@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 160408 SWOMCD SPC MCD 160408 COR KSZ000-NEZ000-160515- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1296 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1108 PM CDT TUE JUN 15 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN KS THROUGH SWRN AND CNTRL NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 479...480... VALID 160408Z - 160515Z CORRECTED FOR MCSS TO MCVS IN SECOND PARAGRAPH THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ANOTHER SEVERAL HOURS AS STORMS MOVE THROUGH WRN KS AND SW THROUGH CNTRL NEB. LINE OF STORMS WITH EMBEDDED BOW ECHOES FROM SWRN NEB...SWD THROUGH SRN KS CONTINUES EAST AT 30 TO 35 KT. THIS LINE HAS DEVELOPED A RATHER LARGE COLD POOL. A COUPLE OF MCVS ALSO APPEAR TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LINE...ONE OVER SWRN NEB AND ANOTHER OVER W CNTRL KS. THE POST CONVECTIVE GLD VERTICAL WIND PROFILE SHOWED A 40 TO 50 KT REAR INFLOW JET IN THE 1 TO 2 KM LAYER...AND THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE STRONG BOWING STRUCTURE OBSERVED NOW MOVING THROUGH THOMAS AND DECATUR COUNTIES. STRONG COLD POOL SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN THE LINE AS IT MOVES DOWNSTREAM THROUGH THE AXIS OF STRONG INSTABILITY NEXT FEW HOURS. ..DIAL.. 06/16/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD... 38649867 37219906 37160070 39310093 41230158 41980002 41889853 39659848 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 16 07:12:51 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 16 Jun 2004 02:12:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406160712.i5G7Cb221085@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 160711 SWOMCD SPC MCD 160711 MOZ000-NEZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-160815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1297 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0211 AM CDT WED JUN 16 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB...SE SD...NW IA...SW MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 481... VALID 160711Z - 160815Z REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 481 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 08Z. GUST FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SURGE EAST NORTHEASTWARD AT 35 TO 40 KT...TOWARD THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY. BOUNDARY IS MOVING INTO PROGRESSIVELY COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER NEAR/EAST OF THE RIVER...WITH GREATER INHIBITION LIKELY TO SUPPRESS FURTHER SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS LINE REACHES THE OMAHA AREA BY AROUND 09Z. STRONGER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION NEAR/NORTHEAST OF MESOSCALE VORTICITY CENTER LIFTING INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA MAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MORE SUBSTANTIAL NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. ACTIVITY APPEARS MOST LIKELY TO INCREASE NEXT FEW HOURS NEAR WEAK FRONTAL ZONE WEST THROUGH NORTH OF THE SIOUX CITY AREA...WHERE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AIR MASS REMAINS A BIT MORE UNSTABLE. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY APPEARS ONLY WEAK TO MODERATE IN MAGNITUDE... AND THOUGH A RISK OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EXISTS...SEVERE THREAT WILL BE MINIMIZED BY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES. ..KERR.. 06/16/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID... 41509806 41999776 42139705 41739629 40749574 40169578 39739675 39369768 40639761 41129774 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 16 07:20:26 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 16 Jun 2004 02:20:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406160720.i5G7KC223404@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 160719 SWOMCD SPC MCD 160718 COR MNZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-160815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1297 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0218 AM CDT WED JUN 16 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB...SE SD...NW IA...SW MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 481... VALID 160718Z - 160815Z CORRECTED GRAPHIC TO INCLUDE ALL AFFECTED WFO'S REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 481 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 08Z. GUST FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SURGE EAST NORTHEASTWARD AT 35 TO 40 KT...TOWARD THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY. BOUNDARY IS MOVING INTO PROGRESSIVELY COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER NEAR/EAST OF THE RIVER...WITH GREATER INHIBITION LIKELY TO SUPPRESS FURTHER SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS LINE REACHES THE OMAHA AREA BY AROUND 09Z. STRONGER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION NEAR/NORTHEAST OF MESOSCALE VORTICITY CENTER LIFTING INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA MAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MORE SUBSTANTIAL NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. ACTIVITY APPEARS MOST LIKELY TO INCREASE NEXT FEW HOURS NEAR WEAK FRONTAL ZONE WEST THROUGH NORTH OF THE SIOUX CITY AREA...WHERE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AIR MASS REMAINS A BIT MORE UNSTABLE. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY APPEARS ONLY WEAK TO MODERATE IN MAGNITUDE... AND THOUGH A RISK OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EXISTS...SEVERE THREAT WILL BE MINIMIZED BY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES. ..KERR.. 06/16/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF... 42619831 43609759 44009644 43729469 42339513 41729546 40419484 39709515 39319639 39169762 40529806 41929846 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 16 14:16:52 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 16 Jun 2004 09:16:52 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406161416.i5GEGe219953@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 161415 SWOMCD SPC MCD 161415 KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-161545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1298 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0915 AM CDT WED JUN 16 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND MIDDLE TN INTO THE LOWER OH VLY CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 161415Z - 161545Z AN ISOLD BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO COULD OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF WRN/MIDDLE TN INTO WRN KY AND SRN IND THIS MORNING...WITH THREATS INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON ALONG/NORTH OF THE OH RVR. VERY MOIST AIR MASS HAS ADVECTED NWD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE MID-UPPER 70S. H85 ANALYSIS DEPICTS A CLOSED CIRCULATION VCNTY SRN MO WITH A SPEED MAX LIFTING NWD ACROSS THE LOWER OH VLY. THOUGH LIGHT WINDS WERE OBSERVED AT THE SURFACE...THE VEERING AND INCREASING WIND FLOW IN THE LOWER GATES NOTED ON PADUCAH VWP SUGGEST NEARLY 25 KTS OF 0-1KM SHEAR. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN FORMING RAPIDLY IN UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT OVER WRN TN AND THESE SHOULD INCREASE AS THEY MOVE NEWD TOWARD WRN KY AND SRN IND. GIVEN LOW LCL ENVIRONMENT AND MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE LOW LEVEL SHEAR...ISOLD BRIEF TORNADOES MAY OCCUR. NEW ETA SUGGESTS THAT THE H85 SPEED MAX LIFTS RAPIDLY NEWD INTO OH LATE THIS MORNING...THEN A NEW JETLET...NOW LOCATED OVER THE LOWER MS VLY...WILL TRANSLATE NEWD INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MAY ENHANCE THE TORNADO THREAT ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER OH VLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...NAMELY SRN IND INTO SWRN OH. AS SUCH...PARTS OF THE REGION MAY BE UPGRADED TO A CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK ON THE 1630 UTC DAY 1 UPDATE. ..RACY.. 06/16/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...MEG... 35228941 37868824 38938707 39318581 38798490 37668566 35098736 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 16 15:10:10 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 16 Jun 2004 10:10:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406161509.i5GF9u223399@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 161509 SWOMCD SPC MCD 161508 KSZ000-COZ000-161645- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1299 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1008 AM CDT WED JUN 16 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO...SWRN KS CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE VALID 161508Z - 161645Z PARTS OF SERN CO AND SWRN KS WILL BE UPGRADED TO A CATEGORICAL MODERATE RISK BASED ON A 15% TORNADO PROBABILITY. FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT WWD ACROSS THE SRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WITH LOWER 60S DEW POINTS AS FAR WEST AS LA JUNTA AND MID 50S AT PUEBLO. THOUGH THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENT IS CAPPED...TSTMS SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY THE PALMER DIVIDE AREA BY MID-AFTERNOON. AS THE PLAINS BOUNDARY LAYER HEATS...CINH WILL ERODE AND TSTMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG BOUNDARIES LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. 12Z H5 ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EJECTING NEWD AND UPSTREAM PROFILERS INDICATE WSWLY H5 WINDS TO 35 KTS. GIVEN SELY FLOW BENEATH THE WSWLY FLOW ALOFT...SUFFICIENT SHEAR WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE THREATS. ..RACY.. 06/16/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU... 37040128 37140281 37820429 38610438 38860378 38730254 37710122 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 16 15:28:26 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 16 Jun 2004 10:28:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406161528.i5GFSD205300@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 161525 SWOMCD SPC MCD 161524 MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-161700- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1300 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1024 AM CDT WED JUN 16 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER MS VLY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 161524Z - 161700Z ISOLD TORNADO/WIND THREATS ARE INCREASING ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VLY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS NEXT MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX EJECTING NWD ALONG ERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPSTREAM TROUGH AXIS. WIDESPREAD TSTMS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE SABINE RVR VLY AREA. JUST TO THE EAST ACROSS THE LOWER MS VLY...VSBL IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY AND WILL ALLOW FOR RAPID DESTABILIZATION OF THE NEAR TROPICAL AIR MASS. IN FACT...SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE AND ERN PART OF THE UPSTREAM MCS IS INTENSIFYING OVER CNTRL LA. MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A CORRIDOR OF BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW ROUGHLY FROM BATON ROUGE TO ALEXANDRIA AND FORT POLK VWP SHOWS AROUND 23 KTS OF 0-1KM SHEAR. GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR WITHIN LOW LCL ENVIRONMENT...ISOLD TORNADOES/WINDS WILL BE THREATS AND MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UPGRADED TO A SLIGHT RISK ON THE 1630Z DAY 1 UPDATE. THE TORNADO/WIND THREATS WILL TRANSLATE NEWD WITH TIME INTO PARTS OF CNTRL/SWRN MS. ..RACY.. 06/16/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV... 30369293 31349245 32879215 33509092 33568918 32508908 30968971 30019054 30029123  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 16 16:11:37 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 16 Jun 2004 11:11:37 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406161611.i5GGBP200957@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 161610 SWOMCD SPC MCD 161610 WIZ000-IAZ000-161815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1301 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1110 AM CDT WED JUN 16 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 161610Z - 161815Z TSTM CLUSTERS HAVE RECENTLY INTENSIFIED ACROSS NWRN IA AND WILL LIKELY EXPAND ENEWD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LARGE HAIL... DAMAGING WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED. A WW MAY BE REQUIRED. SURFACE MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS A COMPACT LOW BETWEEN SIOUX CITY AND OMAHA WITH A TRAILING SURFACE TROUGH SWD ALONG THE MO RVR AND AN E-W BOUNDARY INTO SWRN WI. SURFACE LOW APPEARS TO BE DEEPENING GIVEN RECENT STRENGTHENING AGEOSTROPHIC FLOW ACROSS NWRN IA. ENHANCED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE HAS AIDED IN RAPIDLY DEVELOPING TSTM CLUSTER OVER NWRN IA WHERE MUCAPE VALUES WERE 1000-2000 J/KG. CURRENTLY... THESE TSTMS APPEAR TO BE MAINLY ELEVATED. VSBL SATELLITE SUGGESTS DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS WILL DESTABILIZE WITH THINNING HIGH CLOUD CANOPY THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AS THE E-W BOUNDARY BECOMES STRONGER INTO NCNTRL/NERN IA WITHIN THE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT/WEAKENING CINH...TSTMS SHOULD EXPAND EWD INTO THESE REGIONS. OTHER TSTMS ARE APT TO DEVELOP SWD ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH TOWARD THE DES MOINES AREA. REGION RESIDES ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF STRONG H5 FLOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ONLY MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. BUT... STRONG-SEVERE MULTICELLS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS. GIVEN HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE LOW...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED. HEAVIEST CORRIDOR OF RAIN SHOULD OCCUR IN A 70 MILE WIDE AXIS EXTENDING FROM 50 WSW FORT DODGE TO 35 SW WATERLOO TO 25 NW OF DUBUQUE. ..RACY.. 06/16/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...DMX...FSD...OAX... 40669485 41429523 42219555 42899563 43149478 43319425 43379370 43459295 43429233 43449165 43339139 42889116 42499086 41609102 40919161 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 16 17:41:27 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 16 Jun 2004 12:41:27 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406161741.i5GHfD231079@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 161740 SWOMCD SPC MCD 161740 MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-161915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1302 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1240 PM CDT WED JUN 16 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS AND WRN MO CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 161740Z - 161915Z TSTMS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS ERN KS AND WRN MO MAY POSE A MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL THREATS. WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED GIVEN ISOLD SEVERE RISKS. VSBL SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS TSTMS BEGINNING TO INTENSIFY ACROSS NERN KS VCNTY TOPEKA. CAP IS ERODING QUICKLY OWING TO BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AND WEAK CONVERGENCE. MLCAPES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE 2000-2500 J/KG RANGE WITH THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY AXIS SITUATED THROUGH THE KANSAS CITY AREA. REGIONAL PROFILERS/VWPS SUGGEST THAT THE TROPOSPHERIC FLOW IS GENERALLY BELOW 20 KTS THROUGH 7KM. THUS...TSTMS WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME REMAINING ORGANIZED FOR ANY LENGTH OF TIME. STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...HOWEVER...MAY AUGMENT UPDRAFTS ACCELERATION AND TSTMS MAY PULSE TO SEVERE LEVELS PRODUCING MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. MAIN THREAT APPEARS TO BE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AS STORMS MOVE SLOWLY AND BECOME EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS. ..RACY.. 06/16/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT... 38619764 39659628 40489536 40529367 39749305 38279350 37509513 37529733 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 16 18:14:44 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 16 Jun 2004 13:14:44 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406161814.i5GIEV222963@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 161812 SWOMCD SPC MCD 161812 OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-NEZ000-162045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1303 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0112 PM CDT WED JUN 16 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO...EXTREME NERN NM...WRN KS AND THE WRN OK PNHDL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 161812Z - 162045Z TSTMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP/INCREASE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF NERN NM AND CNTRL CO THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH OTHERS DEVELOPING ONTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS AROUND 22Z. A TORNADO THREAT WILL INCREASE OVER SERN CO...NERN NM...EXTREME SWRN KS AND WRN OK PNHDL AND A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED. FARTHER NORTH...ISOLD LARGE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY TSTMS...BUT A WW WILL LIKELY NOT BE REQUIRED. DEEPER SURGE OF COLDER AIR HAS STALLED JUST SOUTH OF BURLINGTON- NEAR COLORADO SPRINGS THEN NWD ALONG THE DIVIDE. A SECONDARY BOUNDARY /OUTFLOW/ WAS ARCING JUST S OF PUEBLO-LA JUNTA-LAMAR EWD TO MIDWAY BETWEEN DODGE CITY AND LIBERAL. VSBL SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT THE SC IS GRADUALLY ERODING BETWEEN THESE TWO BOUNDARIES. MID 60S DEW POINTS ARE COMMON WWD TO LA JUNTA WITH MID 50S BACK TO THE MOUNTAINS BENEATH VERY STEEP MID TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE... CINH WILL BEGIN TO ERODE AND MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG WILL BE REALIZED ACROSS SERN CO. TSTMS SHOULD INITIATE FIRST OVER THE MOUNTAINS...BUT COULD DEVELOP/SPREAD EWD ONTO THE PLAINS QUICKLY BETWEEN 20-22Z. UPSTREAM AZTEC PROFILER SHOWS NEAR 40 KTS OF FLOW ABOVE 4KM AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN STRONGLY VEERED LOW LEVEL PROFILE WITHIN MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...ESPECIALLY ALONG/NORTH OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO SPREAD ESEWD THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO ADJACENT PARTS OF SWRN KS...NERN NM AND THE WRN OK PNHDL. FARTHER NORTH...TSTMS FORMING OVER THE NCNTRL CO ROCKIES WILL LIKELY SPREAD ENEWD ABOVE THE DEEPER COLD DOME FROM DENVER EAST. SUFFICIENT MUCAPE SHOULD EXIST FOR ISOLD TSTMS TO PRODUCE SEVERE HAILSTONES. ..RACY.. 06/16/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ... 36580141 36410397 37520468 38660468 38630370 38550210 37800128 39530550 40400569 40910548 40900428 40320212 39360135 38930178 38660258 38780477 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 16 18:39:19 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 16 Jun 2004 13:39:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406161839.i5GId5208553@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 161838 SWOMCD SPC MCD 161837 COZ000-UTZ000-162100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1304 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0137 PM CDT WED JUN 16 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN UT AND WRN CO CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 161837Z - 162100Z GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR SEVERE LEVELS MAY ACCOMPANY TSTMS ACROSS ERN UT AND WRN CO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WW WILL NOT BE NEEDED. WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE MAIN UPPER TIS...FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN. VLYS HAVE HEATED CONSIDERABLY WITH TEMPERATURES RISING THROUGH THE MID-UPPER 80S. RESULTANT DEW POING THE HIGHER TERRAIN. VLYS HAVE HEATED CONSIDERABLY WITH TEMPERATURES RISING THROUGH THE MID-UPPER 80S. RESULTANT DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS OF 45-55 DEGREES ARE CONTRIBUTING TO HIGH DCAPE VALUES. AS A RESULT...AS THE TSTMS MOVE INTO THE VLYS OF ERN UT/WRN CO...GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR SEVERE LEVELS MAY OCCUR. A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY ALSO CONTAIN SMALL HAIL. ..RACY.. 06/16/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GJT...SLC... 37781164 38871106 39311096 39410967 39500873 38680809 37400867 37431042 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 16 19:08:51 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 16 Jun 2004 14:08:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406161908.i5GJ8b228216@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 161905 SWOMCD SPC MCD 161905 TXZ000-NMZ000-162130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1305 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0205 PM CDT WED JUN 16 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM...WRN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 161905Z - 162130Z TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN NM/SWRN TX AND ALONG THE DRYLINE ACROSS ERN NM. TSTMS MAY CONTAIN SEVERE WINDS AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAILSTONES. TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED RAPIDLY OVER THE SWRN TX/SERN NM MOUNTAINS. OTHER TSTMS WILL POSSIBLY DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE IN SAN MIGUEL...GUADALUPE...WRN QUAY AND DE BACA COUNTIES IN NM BY 22Z. SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS ADVECTED UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S DEW POINTS WWD TO THE MOUNTAINS AND GIVEN STRONG HEATING...MLCAPES WERE 2000-2500 J/KG ON THE HIGH PLAINS. A CAP STILL REMAINS ON THE PLAINS...BUT CONTINUED HEATING WILL ERODE CINH SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT TSTMS ALONG ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT EMANATE FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN STORMS. TROPOSPHERIC FLOW IS WEAK AND TSTMS WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME STAYING ORGANIZED FOR ANY LENGTH OF TIME. HOWEVER...GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS OF 30-35 DEGREES...SEVERE WINDS MAY OCCUR AS THE STORMS COLLAPSE. STRONGER UPDRAFTS MAY CONTAIN SMALL HAIL AS WELL. ACTIVITY MAY MOVE EWD WITH TIME INTO THE WRN TX PNHDL...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 62 /HOBBS NM-SEMINOLE TX/. ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH A COUPLE HOURS AFTER DARK. ..RACY.. 06/16/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...EPZ... 29550435 31700451 32650532 33840541 35460482 35930290 35500245 33880271 31920267 29910253 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 16 19:44:11 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 16 Jun 2004 14:44:11 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406161943.i5GJhv220205@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 161943 SWOMCD SPC MCD 161942 FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-162215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1306 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0242 PM CDT WED JUN 16 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...MS...AL...SWRN TN...SERN LA...WRN FL PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 161942Z - 162215Z ISOLATED SEVERE DOWNBURSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WW NOT ANTICIPATED. MLCAPES NOW EXCEEDING 2000 J/KG WITHIN VERY MOIST AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY MID 70S F DEWPOINTS. UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO WEST IS HELPING TO PRODUCE 20-30 KT UNIDIRECTIONAL SLY FLOW ABOVE 850 MB...WHICH IS CAUSING STORMS TO MOVE NWD WITH SPEEDS OF 20-30 KTS. CONTINUED HEATING / DESTABILIZATION ALONG WITH GRADUAL INCREASE IN STORM DEPTH / INTENSITIES WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SVR DOWNBURSTS. POOR MID AND UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL MINIMIZE HAIL THREAT WITH ONLY VERY SMALL HAIL EXPECTED. ..JEWELL.. 06/16/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TAE...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN...LIX...LCH... 30288493 30208582 30418704 30258791 30678802 30258821 30348878 30208934 30258966 30018977 29889057 30119175 31029153 31989120 33709093 35169026 35578838 35438670 34238551 31018500 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 16 21:01:47 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 16 Jun 2004 16:01:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406162101.i5GL1Y211203@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 162100 SWOMCD SPC MCD 162059 OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-162300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1307 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0359 PM CDT WED JUN 16 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...E CENTRAL IL...CENTRAL IN...SWRN OH...NRN KY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 162059Z - 162300Z ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z. ANY TORNADOES THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE BRIEF. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS RETREATING WARM FRONT FROM JUST N OF STL EWD TO NEAR IND AND DAY. MODERATE INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS FRONT WITH MLCAPES AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG. FORCING CURRENTLY WEAK UNDER WRN EDGE OF UPPER RIDGE...HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL LIKELY CAUSE A FEW SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP. HIGHEST THREAT AREA WILL BE WITHIN THETA-E AXIS WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S F...AND WHERE THIS AXIS CROSSES THE WARM FRONT...OVER E CENTRAL IL AND CENTRAL IN. AREA VWPS INDICATE MARGINAL LOW LEVEL SHEAR ALONG WARM FRONT WITH 0-1 SRH GENERALLY 50-80 M2/S2. THIS...IN COMBINATION WITH 0-3 KM CAPE VALUES UP TO 100 J/KG MAY ALLOW A FEW STORMS TO BRIEFLY PRODUCE A TORNADO. ..JEWELL.. 06/16/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RLX...CLE...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX... 38628640 38778892 39218861 40008837 40538803 40548526 40438298 39248254 38658276 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 16 22:02:35 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 16 Jun 2004 17:02:35 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406162202.i5GM2R219878@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 162201 SWOMCD SPC MCD 162201 WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-MOZ000-162330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1308 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0501 PM CDT WED JUN 16 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL-ERN IA INTO SRN WI/NRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 483... VALID 162201Z - 162330Z HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREATS ACROSS CENTRAL- ERN IA INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE ACROSS SRN WI AND NWRN IL. LATE AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSES/REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS SHOW A WELL DEFINED MCV AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVING SLOWLY ENEWD ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL-NERN IA ATTM. A WARM FRONT EXTENDED ESE FROM THIS SURFACE LOW TO ALONG THE WI/IL BORDER...WITH A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NEWD FROM SWRN TO NERN WI. AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADS EWD AHEAD OF THE MCV AND COMBINES WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH AND GUST FRONT OVER ERN IA...AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE EWD EXTENDING BOUNDARIES... TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE. THE GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL THROUGH 00Z IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS NERN-EAST CENTRAL IA...WHERE ENHANCED UVVS AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH THE MCV WILL INTERACT WITH THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. FARTHER EAST ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN WI AND NRN IL...WEAKER DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. ..PETERS.. 06/16/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...EAX... 40579435 42049299 42989311 43629331 43889242 44379064 43408917 42658876 41688903 40849059 40589099 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 16 23:44:06 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 16 Jun 2004 18:44:06 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406162343.i5GNhs218767@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 162342 SWOMCD SPC MCD 162342 KSZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-170045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1309 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0642 PM CDT WED JUN 16 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN CO INTO WRN KS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 482... VALID 162342Z - 170045Z BOW ECHO LOCATED ALONG THE SERN CO/SWRN KS BORDER AT 2330Z PER REGIONAL RADARS WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A DAMAGING WIND THREAT AND ISOLATED TORNADOES INTO SWRN KS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SURFACE FRONT EXTENDED EWD FROM THE NRN PORTION OF THIS BOW TO BETWEEN GCK/DDC TO HUT...WITH A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR FAVORING A CONTINUATION OF THE FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS/BOW ECHO. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES PER 00Z DDC RAOB AND 30-35 SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WILL FURTHER ENHANCE THE DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL INTO SWRN KS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ISENTROPIC ASCENT ATOP THE COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER LOCATED ACROSS EAST CENTRAL INTO NERN CO AND NWRN KS SHOULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND SHEAR VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR ISOLATED HAIL WITH THIS ACTIVITY INTO THE EARLY EVENING...BUT A WATCH TO THE NORTH OF WW 482 IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ..PETERS.. 06/16/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU... 37020045 36960282 37390262 37890290 38730398 39110397 39980388 39900284 39470170 38750040 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 16 23:52:48 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 16 Jun 2004 18:52:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406162352.i5GNqZ223280@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 162351 SWOMCD SPC MCD 162351 TXZ000-NMZ000-170215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1310 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0651 PM CDT WED JUN 16 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NM...W AND SW TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 162351Z - 170215Z SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW OF THEM SEVERE WITH HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. STORMS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE IN WEAK MID / UPPER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. 00Z AMA AND MAF SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRY SUB CLOUD LAYERS FAVORABLE FOR EVAPORATION AND COLD POOL PRODUCTION. STEEP LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 8.8 C/KM INDICATE THREAT FOR SOME SEVERE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS. HIGHEST THREAT WILL BE WITH ANY CELLS THAT CAN PROPAGATE SWWD...MAXIMIZING SRH. INCREASING SELY LOW LEVEL JET WILL MAINTAIN MOIST INFLOW...THUS NEW CELL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE MOST LIKELY S AND E OF CURRENT CONVECTION ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. ..JEWELL.. 06/16/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ... 34750434 34750205 32280211 31060176 30000221 30000323 30480418 32430436 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 17 02:37:24 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 16 Jun 2004 21:37:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406170237.i5H2bC212921@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 170233 SWOMCD SPC MCD 170233 KSZ000-OKZ000-170330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1311 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0933 PM CDT WED JUN 16 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 486... VALID 170233Z - 170330Z DAMAGING WIND THREAT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH 04Z ACROSS SWRN KS WITH EWD MOVING BOW ECHO. IF THIS BOW SUSTAINS ITS INTENSITY AND CURRENT 35-40 KT EWD MOVEMENT...THEN A NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED TO THE E/ENE OF WW 486 BY 04Z. 02Z SURFACE ANALYSIS/REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED A SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM 10 SE DDC-20 NW ICT-EMP. AIR MASS ALONG AND EITHER SIDE OF THIS BOUNDARY IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND A WELL ESTABLISHED COLD POOL OVER SWRN KS/OK PANHANDLE IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT A CONTINUED EWD MOVEMENT OF THE BOW ECHO WITH DAMAGING WINDS. ..PETERS.. 06/17/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA... 37030031 37750006 38710065 38919882 38909760 38159759 37009783 36849901  From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 17 03:32:33 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 16 Jun 2004 22:32:33 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406170332.i5H3WO211201@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 170331 SWOMCD SPC MCD 170331 TXZ000-170430- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1312 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1031 PM CDT WED JUN 16 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK PANHANDLE SWD ACROSS TX PANHANDLE AND WEST CENTRAL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 485... VALID 170331Z - 170430Z DAMAGING WIND THREAT EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER ACROSS THE NRN TX PANHANDLE DURING THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS...WITH AN ISOLATED HAIL/HEAVY RAIN THREAT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SRN TX PANHANDLE AND THE SOUTH PLAINS OF WEST TX. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED AN ORGANIZED BOW ECHO OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE AT 03Z MOVING TO THE ESE AT 30-35 KT. THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WITH THIS BOW IS INTERSECTING A SECOND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO THE NNE OF AMA ATTM. OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SUGGEST THIS BOW ECHO SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE ESEWD INTO THE ERN TX PANHANDLE THROUGH 05Z ALONG AN INSTABILITY GRADIENT...RESULTING IN A CONTINUED DAMAGING WIND THREAT. HOWEVER...WEAKER INSTABILITY/STRONGER INHIBITION ACROSS WRN OK WOULD SUGGEST THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DECREASE AS THE BOW APPROACHES THE TX/WRN OK BORDER BY AROUND 05Z. SMALL AREAL COVERAGE OF DAMAGING WIND THREAT ACROSS THE ERN TX PANHANDLE WILL PRECLUDE THE ISSUANCE OF AN ADDITIONAL WW. 30 KT SLY LLJ WILL PROVIDE MOIST/MODERATELY UNSTABLE INFLOW TO THE ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER WEST CENTRAL TX AND THE BOW ECHO OVER THE TX PANHANDLE TO MAINTAIN THIS ACTIVITY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ISOLATED HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THE ELEVATED ACTIVITY OVER THE SRN TX PANHANDLE AND THE SOUTH PLAINS OF WEST TX. ..PETERS.. 06/17/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA... 33040232 34150235 35220196 36070185 36410098 36430011 35660001 34650026 34090140 33050182 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 17 19:35:44 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 17 Jun 2004 14:35:44 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406171936.i5HJaW215355@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 171935 SWOMCD SPC MCD 171934 OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-172130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1315 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0234 PM CDT THU JUN 17 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...OH VALLEY AND SRN GREAT LAKES CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 171934Z - 172130Z STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL ACROSS SRN IL...IND...NW OH AND SRN LOWER MI. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SFC TROUGH JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS SRN IL INTO NRN IND AND SRN LOWER MI. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND SFC HEATING IS HELPING STORMS TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE ALONG THE WEST EDGE OF INSTABILITY WHERE MLCAPE VALUES CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 1250 TO 1750 J/KG. THE WIND PROFILER IN NW IND ONLY SHOWS ABOUT 20 KT AT 500 MB WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH GIVEN THE INSTABILITY FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS. LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE CURRENTLY GREATER THAN 7.0 C/KM ACROSS WRN IND AND SRN IL...WHICH MAY BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS. ..BROYLES.. 06/17/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...LMK...IWX...GRR...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX... 37598963 39028875 41818498 42298346 41448229 38818546 37218831 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 17 20:07:19 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 17 Jun 2004 15:07:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406172008.i5HK86202310@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 172002 SWOMCD SPC MCD 172001 TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-172130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1316 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0301 PM CDT THU JUN 17 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM...TX PANHANDLE...WRN OK PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 172001Z - 172130Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. A WW WILL BE ISSUED BY 21Z. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY / WARM FRONT FROM NERN NM SEWD TO NEAR AMA AND JUST N OF CDS. AIR MASS ALONG AND S OF THIS BOUNDARY HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 2000-3500 J/KG. MODIFIED 18Z AMARILLO SOUNDINGS SHOWS AREA IS UNCAPPED. MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING THROUGH NM...AS EVIDENT ON TUCUMCARI PROFILER WITH BACKING WINDS ALOFT. THIS FEATURE WILL HELP STRENGTHEN SHEAR PROFILES WITH SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND LARGE INSTABILITY WILL FAVOR VERY LARGE HAIL., INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH LOCALLY LOWER LCL HEIGHTS AND ENHANCED 0-1 SRH NEAR OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. ..JEWELL.. 06/17/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ... 33910407 35310458 36410502 36990456 36960185 35840009 34340006  From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 17 20:08:23 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 17 Jun 2004 15:08:23 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406172009.i5HK9A202877@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 172003 SWOMCD SPC MCD 172003 COR TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-172130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1316 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0303 PM CDT THU JUN 17 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM...TX PANHANDLE...WRN OK PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 172003Z - 172130Z CORRECTED FOR WORDING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. A WW WILL BE ISSUED BY 21Z. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY / WARM FRONT FROM NERN NM SEWD TO NEAR AMA AND JUST N OF CDS. AIR MASS ALONG AND S OF THIS BOUNDARY HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 2000-3500 J/KG. MODIFIED 18Z AMARILLO SOUNDING SHOWS AREA IS UNCAPPED. MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING THROUGH NM...AS EVIDENT ON TUCUMCARI PROFILER WITH BACKING WINDS ALOFT...WILL HELP STRENGTHEN SHEAR PROFILES WITH SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND LARGE INSTABILITY WILL FAVOR VERY LARGE HAIL. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH LOCALLY LOWER LCL HEIGHTS AND ENHANCED 0-1 SRH NEAR OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. ..JEWELL.. 06/17/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ... 33910407 35310458 36410502 36990456 36960185 35840009 34340006  From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 17 20:25:38 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 17 Jun 2004 15:25:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406172026.i5HKQe214331@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 172023 SWOMCD SPC MCD 172022 NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-172145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1317 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0322 PM CDT THU JUN 17 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PA/MD/NJ/DE/SRN NY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 487...488... VALID 172022Z - 172145Z A WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS LATE THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE CNTRL PARTS OF WW 487 AND 488. THE ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO FEED OFF OF THE STRONG INSTABILITY HELPING THE STORMS TO REMAIN NEAR SEVERE LEVELS AS THEY MOVE EWD ACROSS MD AND SRN PA TOWARD THE COASTAL AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A 40 KT MID-LEVEL JET LOCATED ACROSS CNTRL PA IS ENHANCING SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION WITH A FEW SMALL SUPERCELL STORMS ONGOING ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS IN MD. THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WARM TEMPS ALOFT WILL KEEP THE LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL LOW. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE WIND DAMAGE CONSIDERING THE SHEAR AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES THAT EXIST ACROSS SRN PA ACROSS MD INTO NJ AND DE. ..BROYLES.. 06/17/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...PBZ... 38917487 38707579 39027753 39737906 40127944 40917925 41607803 41777686 41367410 39847396  From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 17 21:24:28 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 17 Jun 2004 16:24:28 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406172128.i5HLSF219132@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 172124 SWOMCD SPC MCD 172124 TXZ000-NMZ000-172330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1318 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0424 PM CDT THU JUN 17 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SW TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 172124Z - 172330Z ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WW NOT ANTICIPATED. STORMS FORMING ON HIGH TERRAIN IN SW TX WHERE IT HAS BECOME VERY WARM WHILE MAINTAINING 50S F DEWPOINTS IN WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. LARGE INSTABILITY EXISTS AND MAY INCREASE AS MOIST SELY FLOW AND LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHEN. MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS WEAK...THUS HODOGRAPHS FAVOR VERY SLOW MOVING SEVERE PULSE OR MULTICELLS. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SEVERE HAIL...WHILE LOW RH SUB CLOUD LAYERS AND WEAK WIND SHEAR WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SEVERE MICROBURSTS. ..JEWELL.. 06/17/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF...EPZ... 30410491 30620498 30910540 31480554 31960438 32460386 32390293 32000215 31350172 29840239 29680270 28960312 29120352 29430414 29670453 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 17 21:59:16 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 17 Jun 2004 16:59:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406172200.i5HM02205909@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 172159 SWOMCD SPC MCD 172158 WVZ000-OHZ000-172230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1319 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0458 PM CDT THU JUN 17 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF CENTRAL/NRN OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 172158Z - 172230Z WW MAY BE REQUIRED FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL/NRN OH WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS. 21Z SURFACE ANALYSIS/VIS IMAGERY SHOWED TWO TO THREE E-W ORIENTED CONFLUENCE BOUNDARIES FROM NERN OH TO CENTRAL/SERN OH...AND A COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD ACROSS SRN LOWER MI TO NRN IND. AIR MASS EAST OF THE COLD FRONT AND ALONG THE E-W BOUNDARIES IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE. CONVERGENCE ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS ERN IND TO CENTRAL/NRN OH INTO THE EARLY EVENING. STRONGER FLOW ALOFT FROM CENTRAL OH INTO PA WILL SUPPORT A SEVERE THREAT WITH STORMS THAT MOVE EWD ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN PORTIONS OF OH...WITH DEEP UNI-DIRECTIONAL FLOW FAVORING MAINLY LINE SEGMENTS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. ..PETERS.. 06/17/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...IWX... 40898419 41628345 41868053 40458064 39648101 39348296 39658475 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 17 22:31:19 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 17 Jun 2004 17:31:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406172232.i5HMW5223317@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 172231 SWOMCD SPC MCD 172231 ARZ000-MOZ000-180030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1320 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0531 PM CDT THU JUN 17 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN MO...NWRN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 489... VALID 172231Z - 180030Z SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO HAVE DECREASED AT THIS TIME AS STORMS HAVE WEAKENED FROM PREVIOUS MARGINALLY SEVERE STATUS. MAIN THREAT CONTINUES TO BE ISOLATED WIND GUSTS. CLUSTER OF PULSE / MULTICELLULAR STORMS CONTINUE WITH CELL REGENERATION ALONG OUTFLOW. STORMS OVER SERN KS AND NWRN AR HAVE RELATIVELY STRONGER THETA-E INFLUX WITH 10-15 KT SFC TO 850 MB SWLY FLOW. THEREFORE...THESE STORMS MAY PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. ..JEWELL.. 06/17/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA... 36559448 38149458 38059189 35469158 35469441 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 17 23:38:17 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 17 Jun 2004 18:38:17 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406172339.i5HNd3224279@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 172337 SWOMCD SPC MCD 172337 NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-180030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1321 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0637 PM CDT THU JUN 17 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN PA/NJ/DE/MD/PORTIONS OF NRN-ERN VA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 488... VALID 172337Z - 180030Z DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH STORMS MOVING EWD ACROSS THE VALID PORTIONS OF WW 488. VAD WINDS FROM PA/NJ SWD ACROSS MD INDICATE 40-50 KT OF WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT. DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ONGOING STORMS AND ANY NEW STORMS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS THIS REGION IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DEEP UNI-DIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW FROM JUST OFF THE SURFACE WILL FAVOR LINE SEGMENTS...WITH REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING A SMALL BOW ECHO MOVING ESE AT 40 KT INTO CENTRAL NJ POSING THE GREATEST WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL ATTM. A GREATER THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SRN PORTIONS OF WW 488 FROM MD/ERN VA AND EWD TO THE COAST DURING THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS AS THIS REGION REMAINS CLOSER TO STRONGER INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 2000-3000 J/KG/. A CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MOVING ESEWD INTO THE ERN WV PANHANDLE WILL POSE A SEVERE THREAT ACROSS SWRN PORTION OF WW 488...IF THEY CAN MAINTAIN THEIR INTENSITY AS THEY MOVE INTO FAR NRN VA BETWEEN 00-01Z. ..PETERS.. 06/17/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX... 41047557 40787356 39727278 37077736 39167882 40507646 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 18 00:39:09 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 17 Jun 2004 19:39:09 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406180039.i5I0dt222538@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 180038 SWOMCD SPC MCD 180038 OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-180245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1322 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0738 PM CDT THU JUN 17 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO...TX PANHANDLE...NERN NM...SWRN KS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 490...491... VALID 180038Z - 180245Z LATEST RADARS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SEVERAL LARGE SUPERCELLS FROM SERN CO INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. ISOLATED TORNADOES REMAIN POSSIBLE...BUT DAMAGING WINDS WILL INCREASINGLY BECOME THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS STORMS OVER SERN CO AS WELL AS THE NRN TX PANHANDLE ARE ALONG WARM FRONT. SURFACE WINDS ARE BACKED IN THESE AREAS WITH 0-1 SRH OF 150-250 M2/S2. 00Z AMA AND DDC RAOBS INDICATE TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S ARE NECESSARY FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION WITH MINIMAL CIN. THEREFORE...GIVEN COOLER AIR OVER SWRN KS...STORMS THAT DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO THIS AREA WILL LIKELY BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ABOVE A MORE STABLE SURFACE LAYER. HOWEVER...SURFACE AIR REMAINS UNSTABLE. STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH WELL ESTABLISHED CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS WILL LIKELY BE INGESTING A MIXTURE OF ELEVATED AND SURFACE BASED AIR. SUPERCELLS MAY EVOLVE INTO DAMAGING BOWS AS THEY CONTINUE EWD...WITH LARGE HAIL LIKELY AS WELL GIVEN STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 8.0 C/KM AND MODERATE INSTABILITY. ..JEWELL.. 06/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...SJT...GLD...LUB...AMA...MAF...PUB...BOU...ABQ... 32880022 32900487 39210501 39169991 36939997 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 18 01:16:30 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 17 Jun 2004 20:16:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406180117.i5I1HG209513@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 180116 SWOMCD SPC MCD 180115 KSZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-180145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1323 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0815 PM CDT THU JUN 17 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN KS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 490... VALID 180115Z - 180145Z NEW WW WILL BE ISSUED SOON ACROSS SWRN KS TO REPLACE WW 490. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW A WELL DEFINED BOW ECHO OVER THE SERN CO COUNTIES OF PROWERS AND BACA...MOVING TO THE EAST AT 35 KT. THIS BOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EWD ALONG AN INSTABILITY GRADIENT/ SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING ESEWD ACROSS SWRN-SOUTH CENTRAL KS. GIVEN MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR...THIS BOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG TO SEVERE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ISOLATED STORMS TO THE NNW OF THE BOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS...AS THE BOW BECOMES THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT. ..PETERS.. 06/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ICT...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB... 38950277 39030080 38469917 37599851 37039876 36930283 37590221 38140256 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 18 02:19:21 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 17 Jun 2004 21:19:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406180220.i5I2KA206751@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 180219 SWOMCD SPC MCD 180219 OKZ000-TXZ000-180245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1324 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0919 PM CDT THU JUN 17 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN OK INCLUDING OK PANHANDLE/ERN TX PANHANDLE CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 491... VALID 180219Z - 180245Z NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED SOON FOR PORTIONS OF THE ERN TX PANHANDLE AND WRN OK INCLUDING THE OK PANHANDLE. LARGE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MERGE ACROSS THE OK/TX PANHANDLES INTO NWRN TX/LOW ROLLING HILLS OF WEST CENTRAL TX...WITH A GRADUAL EWD MOVEMENT OF THE ENTIRE MCS. AMA RADAR CURRENTLY SHOWS A DEVELOPING BOW ECHO ACROSS ROBERTS COUNTY TX...WITH LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS/OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATING A STRONG COLD POOL WITH THIS BOW. MODERATE INSTABILITY DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE ERN TX PANHANDLE INTO WRN OK AND THE COLD POOL SHOULD MAINTAIN THE EWD MOVEMENT OF THIS BOW ECHO INTO WRN OK BY 03Z. 30 KT SSELY LLJ ACROSS WRN TX WILL MAINTAIN ONGOING MCS ACROSS THIS REGION WITH CAPE/SHEAR VALUES SUPPORTING ORGANIZED STORMS WITH HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. DEVELOPING COLD POOL OVER THE TX PANHANDLE WILL FURTHER ENHANCE DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL INTO WRN OK. ..PETERS.. 06/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA... 35860104 36880103 36979837 35389795 34149808 34119853 33710024 33710198 34910200 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 18 02:53:23 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 17 Jun 2004 21:53:23 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406180254.i5I2s8223026@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 180252 SWOMCD SPC MCD 180251 KSZ000-180345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1325 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0951 PM CDT THU JUN 17 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 492... VALID 180251Z - 180345Z DAMAGING WIND/HAIL THREAT TO CONTINUE ACROSS FAR SWRN KS FROM HASKELL/SEWARD COUNTIES ATTM EWD TO COMANCHE/KIOWA COUNTIES BY 04-05Z. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW A COMPACT BOW ECHO ACROSS FAR SWRN KS MOVING EWD AT 40-45 KT. 02Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A BOUNDARY EXTENDING EWD ALONG THE SRN TIER OF KS COUNTIES TO ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER...WITH A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ALONG/S OF THIS BOUNDARY. THIS DOWNSTREAM INSTABILITY AND ESTABLISHED COLD POOL IN WAKE OF BOW ECHO WILL SUPPORT DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS THIS BOW ECHO CONTINUES EWD DURING THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. ..PETERS.. 06/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ICT...DDC...GLD... 37000122 37650149 38250163 38990135 39119887 37059884 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 18 04:45:05 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 17 Jun 2004 23:45:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406180445.i5I4ju209773@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 180445 SWOMCD SPC MCD 180444 KSZ000-OKZ000-180615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1326 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1144 PM CDT THU JUN 17 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SRN KS AND WRN/NRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 492...493... VALID 180444Z - 180615Z ISOLATED HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN KS AND NRN OK. NEW WW WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN KS/NRN OK. 04Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A MESO-HIGH EXTENDING FROM SWRN KS INTO NWRN OK. A SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER NEAR WOODS COUNTY OK WHERE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM OK CONVECTION INTERSECTS A SYNOPTIC SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING E-W ALONG THE OK/KS BORDER. LOW-LEVEL WAA ASSOCIATED WITH A 30 KT LLJ NOSING INTO NORTH CENTRAL OK/SRN KS AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRACKING ENEWD INTO SWRN KS ATTM ARE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THE LARGE FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN KS AND NRN OK OVERNIGHT. DAMAGING WIND THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE GREATEST ACROSS NRN OK... WITH ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS FROM ALFALFA TO CUSTER COUNTIES MOVING EWD AT 30-35 KT. HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT NWD ACROSS KS... WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE STRONGER...SUPPORTING ELEVATED SUPERCELLS. ..PETERS.. 06/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC... 35509920 36599886 37089954 37740020 38310013 38959887 38809645 37099646 36239669 35529707 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 18 06:29:24 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 18 Jun 2004 01:29:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406180630.i5I6U9222630@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 180629 SWOMCD SPC MCD 180629 OKZ000-KSZ000-180800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1327 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0129 AM CDT FRI JUN 18 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL/SERN KS INTO N-CNTRL/NERN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 494... VALID 180629Z - 180800Z POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD E OF KS PORTION WW BY 0700Z. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AND AN ADDITIONAL WW MAY BE REQUIRED. AS OF 0611Z...RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED LEADING EDGE OF GUST FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH MCS FROM ERN PORTIONS OF HARVEY/SEDGWICK/SUMNER COUNTIES IN S-CNTRL KS SWWD INTO LOGAN AND GRADY COUNTIES OF CNTRL OK. WHILE THIS GUST FRONT HAS ADVANCED AHEAD OF OK PORTION OF MCS...IT REMAINS NEARLY COINCIDENT WITH HIGHER REFLECTIVITIES OVER S-CNTRL KS...SUGGESTING MORE OF AN UPRIGHT TILT TO LEADING EDGE OF SYSTEM. OVER THE PAST HOUR SEVERAL GUSTS IN THE 40-50MPH RANGE HAVE BE REPORTED IN OBSERVATIONS OVER GRANT/GARFIELD/KINGFISHER AND LOGAN COUNTIES IN OK AND AT THE WICHITA AIRPORT. 06Z MESOANALYSIS INDICATES QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY INTERSECTING MCS OVER FAR S-CNTRL KS AND THEN EXTENDING EWD ROUGHLY ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER. LATEST RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT STRONGEST STORMS ARE THOSE ALONG AND N OF THIS BOUNDARY WHERE OBJECTIVE FIELDS STILL INDICATE MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG. THOUGH LOCAL PROFILERS/VWPS SHOW RELATIVELY WEAK MID-LEVEL FLOW...EWD SYSTEM MOTION OF 35KTS AND WELL-ORGANIZED COLD POOL MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO PROMOTE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...IN ADDITION TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. EXTRAPOLATION PLACES LEADING EDGE OF SYSTEM /S-CNTRL KS PORTION/ E OF WW 494 BY 0700Z. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AND A NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED. ..MEAD.. 06/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC... 38669856 38629503 35509512 35629849 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 18 15:50:01 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 18 Jun 2004 10:50:01 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406181550.i5IFoj211976@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 181549 SWOMCD SPC MCD 181549 ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-181745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1328 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1049 AM CDT FRI JUN 18 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK...WRN AR AND FAR SW MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 181549Z - 181745Z A BACKBUILDING LINE OF STORMS ACROSS CNTRL OK MAY REINTENSIFY AS IT MOVES EWD SLOWLY. IN ADDITION...NEW STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS SERN OK...POSSIBLY REACHING SEVERE LIMITS THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY ACROSS SE OK WHERE MLCAPE VALUES ARE ALREADY 2500 TO 3000 J/KG WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE NORMAN 12Z SOUNDING. THIS STRONG INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS STRENGTHENING THE ONGOING CONVECTION AND HELPING TO INITIATE NEW STORMS. STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS SRN AND ERN OK AND COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. THE NORMAN 12Z SOUNDING SHOWS 30 TO 35 KT AT 500 MB AND PROFILERS INDICATE THAT THIS STRONGER FLOW EXTENDS WWD ACROSS SW OK. AS THIS STRONGER FLOW SPREADS INTO ERN OK TODAY...IT WILL CREATE STRONGER SHEAR WHICH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR MULTICELL SEVERE STORMS CONSIDERING THE MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY PRESENT. AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO STEEPEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THE WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS ERN OK. A CLUSTER SHOULD DEVELOP AND MOVE ESEWD INTO WRN AR BY LATE AFTERNOON. ..BROYLES.. 06/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... 34249772 33759684 34069455 34419260 35229294 36399392 36849455 36669535 35599647 34819726 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 18 16:21:54 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 18 Jun 2004 11:21:54 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406181622.i5IGMe201063@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 181622 SWOMCD SPC MCD 181621 SCZ000-GAZ000-NCZ000-181815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1329 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1121 AM CDT FRI JUN 18 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN GA...WRN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 181621Z - 181815Z DEVELOPING STORMS ACROSS NRN GA AND CNTRL AL WILL INTENSIFY AND MAY HAVE A WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON. IF A COLD POOL CAN ORGANIZE...A WW WILL BE CONSIDERED LATER THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THIS SCENARIO APPEARS UNLIKELY ATTM. INSTABILITY IS INCREASING THIS MORNING ACROSS NRN GA AND AL IN RESPONSE TO SFC HEATING WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG. THIS COMBINED WITH LIFT FROM A MINOR SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY IS RESULTING IN NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS MORNING. STORM COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS PVA FROM THE SHORTWAVE SPREADS EWD ACROSS NRN GA. VAD WIND PROFILES ACROSS NW GA SHOW ABOUT 20 KT OF FLOW IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS WITH SUBTLE BACKED FLOW AT THE MID-LEVELS. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL WITH ANY STORMS THAT PULSE UP. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS MID 70S F SFC DEWPOINTS ALONG WITH 0-2 KM LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.5 C/KM WHICH WILL FAVOR WET DOWNBURSTS. A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS AS A LARGER CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS SPREADS SLOWLY EWD INTO WRN SC BY LATE AFTERNOON. ..BROYLES.. 06/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...FFC... 33078187 32628254 32688431 33218469 34298406 35078307 34878107 34508071 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 18 17:17:28 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 18 Jun 2004 12:17:28 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406181718.i5IHIE206709@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 181717 SWOMCD SPC MCD 181717 NCZ000-SCZ000-181915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1331 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1217 PM CDT FRI JUN 18 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC...ERN SC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 181717Z - 181915Z SCATTERED STORM INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS CNTRL NC AND CNTRL SC. THE DEVELOPING STORMS WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NEAR HENDERSON NC SSWWD TO AUGUSTA GA. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH AND SFC HEATING HAS HELPED INITIATE ISOLATED CONVECTION SOUTH OF RALEIGH. OTHER STORMS SHOULD INITIATE ALONG THE TROUGH NORTH OF RALEIGH AND SOUTH NEAR CHARLESTON BY 19Z. VAD PROFILES ACROSS ERN NC SHOW UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR WITH ABOUT 15 KT OF FLOW IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS. THIS WILL BE MARGINAL FOR SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...STRONG INSTABILITY IS LOCATED ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STRONG UPDRAFTS. LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NEAR 8.0 C/KM WHICH COUPLED WITH MID TO UPPER 70S F SFC DEWPOINTS WILL FAVOR WIND DAMAGE AS THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS. ..BROYLES.. 06/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE... 35777567 35227558 35007614 34627651 34717679 34407762 33887801 33877860 33507912 33137926 32168087 32658125 33238137 34347991 35037908 35987769 36377662 36347592 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 18 17:58:36 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 18 Jun 2004 12:58:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406181759.i5IHxK232428@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 181758 SWOMCD SPC MCD 181758 VAZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-182000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1332 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1258 PM CDT FRI JUN 18 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...VA/ERN WV/MD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 181758Z - 182000Z ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AHEAD OF COLD FRONT FROM WRN PA INTO WRN WV. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES /8.0 C/KM IN 0-3 KM/ HAVE DEVELOPED -- ESPECIALLY ACROSS CNTRL/ERN VA -- OWING TO PLENTIFUL INSOLATION AND 80S/LOWER 90S SFC TEMPERATURES. COMBINED WITH LOWER 70F DEWPOINTS...LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS MEAN MIXED CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 2000-2500 J/KG AS OF 17Z. ALTHOUGH BACKGROUND WLY WINDS ARE MARGINAL -- MID LEVEL WINDS 25-30 KTS PER RUC DIAGNOSTICS AND AVAILABLE VWPS -- ISOLD WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH MOST VIGOROUS TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLD NATURE OF DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE NECESSITY FOR WW. LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL WILL BE MITIGATED BY HIGH FREEZING LEVELS/WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ..GUYER.. 06/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX... 39437676 38537653 37657660 36847680 36817776 36757975 37348126 38338083 39457937 39597844 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 18 18:21:42 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 18 Jun 2004 13:21:42 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406181822.i5IIMV214271@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 181820 SWOMCD SPC MCD 181820 ILZ000-MOZ000-182015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1333 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0120 PM CDT FRI JUN 18 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MO...IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 181820Z - 182015Z CONVECTION CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ACROSS ERN MO WILL SPREAD EWD AND POSE A HAIL OR WIND DAMAGE THREAT. A WW IS CURRENTLY BEING CONSIDERED FOR THE AREA. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT DRAPED FROM WRN IL SSWWD TO ECNTRL MO. STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG AND SE OF THE FRONT WILL HELP STORM INITIATION TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS SBCAPE OF 500 TO 1500 J/KG ACROSS CNTRL IL TO CNTRL MO. AS INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...STRONG UPDRAFTS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE EWD INTO WRN AND CNTRL IL. THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT IS GOOD FOR MULTICELL SEVERE STORMS WITH THE BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR CURRENTLY OVER NE MO. IF INSTABILITY INCREASES INTO THE MODERATE CATEGORY...A SUPERCELL THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST. THE HAIL WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO SUPERCELLS BUT WIND DAMAGE WILL BE THE GREATER THREAT CONSIDERING THE UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES AND STRONG SPEED SHEAR WITH HEIGHT. ..BROYLES.. 06/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...DVN...SGF... 40128835 38528877 36598988 36579011 36539120 36689233 37539220 39499141 40399079 40458953 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 18 19:29:25 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 18 Jun 2004 14:29:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406181930.i5IJU8222930@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 181928 SWOMCD SPC MCD 181928 TXZ000-NMZ000-182130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1334 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0228 PM CDT FRI JUN 18 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...TX PANHANDLE...W TX...NE NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 181928Z - 182130Z AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NE NM...THE TX PANHANDLE AND ON THE CAPROCK SOUTH OF AMARILLO. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY SUPERCELL STORMS THAT DEVELOP. A WW IS BEING CONSIDERED ATTM. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED ACROSS THE SRN TX PANHANDLE EXTENDING NWWD INTO NE NM. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY IN W TX...MLCAPE VALUES ARE CURRENTLY 2000-3000 J/KG. THE INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND THIS COUPLED WITH STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN RAPID STORM FORMATION ONCE INITIATION OCCURS. STORMS WILL MOST LIKELY INITIATE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND MOVE EWD ACROSS NE NM AND THE TX PANHANDLE. INITIATION IS ALSO POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY IN THE STRONGER INSTABILITY. THE 18Z SOUNDING FOR AMARILLO SHOWS 30 TO 35 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WHICH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. IN ADDITION...THE HODOGRAPH SHOWS VEERING LOW-LEVEL WINDS WITH SFC-3 KM SRH AROUND 200 M2/S2 WHICH RESULT IN AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. ALTHOUGH TEMPS ARE FAIRLY WARM ALOFT...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL POSE A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ..BROYLES.. 06/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ... 33810398 34270503 34950553 35720575 36500551 36810411 36480356 36150305 35580158 35070111 33340106 33130222 33500338 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 18 20:25:06 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 18 Jun 2004 15:25:06 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406182027.i5IKR8222207@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 182020 SWOMCD SPC MCD 182020 WYZ000-IDZ000-UTZ000-182215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1335 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0320 PM CDT FRI JUN 18 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN ID...WRN WY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 182020Z - 182215Z SCATTERED STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A SEVERE THREAT THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS SERN ID INTO WRN WY. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SMALL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS EXTENDING NWD INTO SERN ID WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 40S F. THIS ALONG WITH TEMPS AROUND 70 F ARE CONTRIBUTING TO SBCAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 1200 J/KG. STORMS ARE FEEDING OFF OF THE INSTABILITY...TRACKING ENEWD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING VORTICITY MAX. THE INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MODERATE SPEED SHEAR WITH SOME VEERING BETWEEN 700 AND 500 MB WHICH SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL SUPERCELL THREAT. INVERTED V PROFILES AND 500 MB TEMPS OF -16 TO -18C WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. THE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD INTO WRN WY BY THE EVENING HOURS WHERE THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BECOME MINIMAL DUE TO STABILIZATION. ..BROYLES.. 06/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RIW...SLC...PIH...BOI... 42021201 41961374 42291451 43131367 44071117 43820998 42630963 42191038 42111119 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 18 20:53:45 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 18 Jun 2004 15:53:45 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406182054.i5IKsT206359@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 182049 SWOMCD SPC MCD 182049 INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-182245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1336 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0349 PM CDT FRI JUN 18 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IL/SRN IN/WRN WY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 182049Z - 182245Z ADDITIONAL WW MAY BE NEEDED WITHIN NEXT HOUR OR SO ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN IL/WRN KY -- AND POSSIBLY INTO SRN IN -- EAST OF WW 495. MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS EXISTS DOWNSTREAM OF ORGANIZED MULTICELL/SUPERCELL CLUSTERS ENTERING INTO SW IL...CROSSING THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AS OF 2015-2030Z. EXTRAPOLATION SUGGESTS THESE TSTMS MAY BREACH THE ERN PORTION OF WW 495 AROUND/AFTER THE 22Z TIMEFRAME...LIKELY NECESSITATING AN ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE TO THE EAST. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS/MODIFIED 18Z ILX RAOB PORTRAYS DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT ACROSS SRN IL/SRN IN CHARACTERIZED BY 1000-2000 J/KG SBCAPE...WITH SBCAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000-3000 J/KG SWD ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER INTO WRN KY. PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL...ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30-35 KTS AND BACKGROUND VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH MCV WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SUPERCELL/ISOLD TORNADO POTENTIAL...NAMELY ACROSS SRN IL/WRN KY. ..GUYER.. 06/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX... 39158863 39258759 39208651 38338608 37248657 36708764 36628920 36848941 38228899 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 18 20:54:08 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 18 Jun 2004 15:54:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406182054.i5IKsp206526@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 182051 SWOMCD SPC MCD 182051 ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-182245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1337 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0351 PM CDT FRI JUN 18 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN OK...NORTH TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 182051Z - 182245Z CONVECTION WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS IT SLOWLY SPREADS NORTH AND EWD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM BECAUSE THE WINDOW FOR SEVERE SHOULD REMAIN BRIEF. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG STORMS ARE CURRENTLY LOCATED EAST TO WEST ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY. STRONG INSTABILITY IS PRESENT IMMEDIATELY SOUTH OF THE ACTIVITY WITH SFC DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 70S F. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO FUEL THE CONVECTION THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THE RED RIVER SHOW ABOUT 20 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR MULTICELL SEVERE STORMS. FARTHER NW...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS 35 TO 40 KT MAINLY ACROSS WRN OK WHERE A THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS WILL EXIST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR LARGE HAIL WILL BE IN WRN OK WHERE LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPER. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY IS STRONGER ACROSS NE TX AND SERN OK. THIS WILL ENHANCE THE WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL THERE. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS. ..BROYLES.. 06/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT... 33569414 33229654 33159860 33779975 35209936 35439467  From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 18 21:05:35 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 18 Jun 2004 16:05:35 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406182106.i5IL6I212916@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 182102 SWOMCD SPC MCD 182101 COR INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-182245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1336 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0401 PM CDT FRI JUN 18 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IL/SRN IN/WRN KY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 182101Z - 182245Z CORRECTED FOR STATES AFFECTED ADDITIONAL WW MAY BE NEEDED WITHIN NEXT HOUR OR SO ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN IL/WRN KY -- AND POSSIBLY INTO SRN IN -- EAST OF WW 495. MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS EXISTS DOWNSTREAM OF ORGANIZED MULTICELL/SUPERCELL CLUSTERS ENTERING INTO SW IL...CROSSING THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AS OF 2015-2030Z. EXTRAPOLATION SUGGESTS THESE TSTMS MAY BREACH THE ERN PORTION OF WW 495 AROUND/AFTER THE 22Z TIMEFRAME...LIKELY NECESSITATING AN ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE TO THE EAST. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS/MODIFIED 18Z ILX RAOB PORTRAYS DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT ACROSS SRN IL/SRN IN CHARACTERIZED BY 1000-2000 J/KG SBCAPE...WITH SBCAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000-3000 J/KG SWD ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER INTO WRN KY. PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL...ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30-35 KTS AND BACKGROUND VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH MCV WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SUPERCELL/ISOLD TORNADO POTENTIAL...NAMELY ACROSS SRN IL/WRN KY. ..GUYER.. 06/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX... 39158863 39258759 39208651 38338608 37248657 36708764 36628920 36848941 38228899 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 18 21:48:40 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 18 Jun 2004 16:48:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406182149.i5ILnO205132@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 182145 SWOMCD SPC MCD 182145 COZ000-UTZ000-182245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1338 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0445 PM CDT FRI JUN 18 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO NWWD ACROSS CENTRAL/NWRN CO TO NERN UT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 182145Z - 182245Z ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SERN CO. SMALL AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD PRECLUDE THE ISSUANCE OF A WW. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL INTO NWRN CO TO NERN UT DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. VIS IMAGERY INDICATED AN ISOLATED STORM OVER THE SERN CO COUNTY OF LAS ANIMAS. A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS EXISTS ACROSS SERN CO... WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGESTING THE LIKELIHOOD FOR SUSTAINED STORM ORGANIZATION WITH ROTATING UPDRAFTS. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP NWWD ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CUSTER AND SAGUACHE COUNTIES WITH A THREAT FOR HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS AS THEY MOVE EWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO THE INSTABILITY AXIS. ATTM...MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED SWD ACROSS NERN-ERN NM WHERE INSTABILITY IS GREATER...WITH ONLY SMALL AREAL COVERAGE ACROSS SERN CO LIKELY PRECLUDING THE ISSUANCE OF A WW. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NWWD ACROSS CENTRAL/NWRN CO TO NERN UT...AS STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WRN SLOPES OF THESE MOUNTAINS AND MOVE ENELY IN 30 KT OF MEAN WSWLY FLOW. SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT STORM ROTATION...BUT MARGINAL INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE AREAL COVERAGE FOR A MORE ORGANIZED THREAT. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ..PETERS.. 06/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...GJT... 37060325 37000484 37970533 38590600 38390763 38340884 39660964 40320969 40910737 40830493 39910476 38890414 37910310 37110267 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 18 22:05:59 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 18 Jun 2004 17:05:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406182206.i5IM6g213424@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 182206 SWOMCD SPC MCD 182205 MTZ000-IDZ000-ORZ000-WAZ000-190000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1339 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0505 PM CDT FRI JUN 18 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ORE/SE WA/WRN MT/SW AND CNTRL ID CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 182205Z - 190000Z ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. BROAD FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF PACIFIC NW UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED TSTMS FROM ERN ORE/SE WA INTO CNTRL ID/SW MT...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SEVERE THREAT INTO EARLY EVENING. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE 70S/80S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON FROM ERN OR INTO ID...WHILE H5 TEMPS OF -16C TO -18C OVERSPREAD THE REGION. RESULTANT STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON THE ORDER OF 7.5 C/KM /OR GREATER/ AND MUCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG WILL SUPPORT LARGE HAIL WITH MOST VIGOROUS TSTMS. ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL OWING TO LARGE LOW LEVEL TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS AND BACKGROUND WIND FIELDS. ISOLD/MARGINAL NATURE OF ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE WW ISSUANCE. ..GUYER.. 06/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TFX...PIH...MSO...BOI...OTX...PDT... 47541775 47911570 46941262 44941137 43831276 43171449 42561870 44301920 45981874 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 18 23:02:35 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 18 Jun 2004 18:02:35 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406182303.i5IN3I206882@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 182301 SWOMCD SPC MCD 182301 TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-COZ000-190000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1340 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0601 PM CDT FRI JUN 18 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM/FAR WEST TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 496... VALID 182301Z - 190000Z PARAMETERS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS NERN AND EAST CENTRAL NM. VIS/RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM ERN NM SWD TO FAR WEST TX ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN...DRY LINE AND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. MOIST/MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS THESE AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO AID TSTM DEVELOPMENT. STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR FROM EAST CENTRAL TO NERN NM WILL SUPPORT THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WITHIN WW 496 FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AS STORMS MOVE EWD INTO THE STRONGER INSTABILITY. FARTHER S ACROSS SERN NM/FAR WEST TX...WEAKER DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR DIURNALLY STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS. ..PETERS.. 06/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...PUB...ABQ...EPZ... 37000519 36970299 33460300 32340272 30990280 29880327 29630401 30520490 31050543 32500512 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 18 23:18:15 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 18 Jun 2004 18:18:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406182318.i5INIv214297@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 182318 SWOMCD SPC MCD 182317 ILZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-190045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1341 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0617 PM CDT FRI JUN 18 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SE MO/SRN IL/SRN IN/WRN KY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 495... VALID 182317Z - 190045Z MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT REMAINS ACROSS VALID PORTION OF WW 495. ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO THE EAST OF WW 495 ACROSS SRN IL/SRN IN/WRN KY. SEMI-ORGANIZED TSTM CLUSTERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/PROPAGATE EWD ACROSS FAR SE MO/SRN IL...INTO SRN IN/WRN KY. LOSS OF DIABATIC HEATING IS EXPECTED TO LARGELY CONTRIBUTE TO WEAKENING SEVERE THREAT ACROSS REMAINING PORTION OF WW 495 AND AREAS FURTHER E ALONG THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH THREAT FOR ISOLD LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS SRN IL/SRN IN/WRN KY...ANTICIPATED ISOLD/MARGINAL NATURE IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE ISSUANCE OF AN ADDITIONAL WW. ..GUYER.. 06/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...SGF...LMK...OHX...IND... 39388980 39368859 36558948 36559198 37479083 38439016 39398850 39418759 39238605 38238582 37528627 36738736 36618821 36598940 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 19 00:30:34 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 18 Jun 2004 19:30:34 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406190031.i5J0VG212655@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 190030 SWOMCD SPC MCD 190030 OKZ000-TXZ000-190200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1342 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0730 PM CDT FRI JUN 18 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...OK/TX PANHANDLES SWD TO WEST CENTRAL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 497... VALID 190030Z - 190200Z INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT AND SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED BY 01-02Z TO THE NORTH OF AMA AND TO THE NE OF LBB. SEVERE THREAT SHOULD ALSO INCREASE ACROSS FAR WRN PORTIONS OF WW...AS STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS FAR EAST CENTRAL NM MOVE INTO TX. 00Z SURFACE ANALYSIS/VIS IMAGERY SHOWED THE LARGE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION OVER OK/NRN TX CONTINUED TO SURGE W AND SW INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE AND NWRN TX. SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NWRN TX WSWWD ACROSS THE NRN TX PANHANDLE NEAR 35 N AMA...AND THEN NWWD TO THE CO FRONT RANGE. LATEST VIS/ RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED STORMS DEVELOPING AT THE INTERSECTION OF THE LARGE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND THE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER FLOYD...BRISCOE AND MOTLEY COUNTIES. AIR MASS ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE SWD TO THE LOW ROLLING HILLS OF WEST CENTRAL TX IS MODERATELY TO VERY UNSTABLE WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. MEANWHILE...THUNDERSTORM MERGERS ACROSS FAR EAST CENTRAL NM WILL CONTINUE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES EWD INTO TX...AND A RESULTANT INCREASE FOR A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. ..PETERS.. 06/19/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA... 36930298 36939987 33340000 33390302 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 19 02:14:40 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 18 Jun 2004 21:14:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406190215.i5J2FM223646@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 190211 SWOMCD SPC MCD 190211 OKZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-190245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1343 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0911 PM CDT FRI JUN 18 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NERN NM/WEST CENTRAL TX AND TX/OK PANHANDLES CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 496...497... VALID 190211Z - 190245Z WW 497 WILL BE REPLACED WITH NEW WW FOR THE SAME AREA. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTION ACROSS OK/NRN TX HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE W AND SW ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE AND WEST CENTRAL TX. CLUSTERS OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AS THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERSECTS THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NRN TX PANHANDLE...AND AS STORMS OVER NERN NM MOVE EWD INTO TX MERGING WITH THE STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. A CLUSTER OF STORMS FARTHER SOUTH FROM YOAKUM COUNTY TX TO CASTRO COUNTY TX HAS DEVELOPED A COLD POOL WITH FORWARD PROPAGATION LIKELY...AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THIS CLUSTER WILL INTERACT WITH THE WWD MOVING LARGE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY... AND SHOULD RESULT IN FURTHER STORM INTENSIFICATION. AIR MASS ACROSS THESE AREAS REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE...WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR CONTINUING TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE OK PANHANDLE IS NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT/IN A MORE SLIGHTLY STABLE AIR MASS...STORMS ACROSS NERN NM/SERN CO MAY MOVE SEWD ACROSS THIS REGION POSING A THREAT FOR ELEVATED SEVERE STORMS. ..PETERS.. 06/19/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ... 36959988 36259979 33370003 33340148 33270307 35390298 36400353 36980316  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 19 04:56:54 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 18 Jun 2004 23:56:54 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406190457.i5J4va224652@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 190456 SWOMCD SPC MCD 190456 OKZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-190630- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1344 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1156 PM CDT FRI JUN 18 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...OK/TX PANHANDLES SWD TO TX SOUTH PLAINS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 498... VALID 190456Z - 190630Z HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREATS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE TX SOUTH PLAINS NWD ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE...WITH SOMEWHAT LESS OF A THREAT OVER THE OK PANHANDLE. LATE EVENING SURFACE MESO-ANALYSES COMBINED WITH REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED THE COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS ANTICYCLONE...EXTENDED FROM NRN AR WWD ACROSS CENTRAL OK TO THE NRN TX PANHANDLE. LARGE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER CONVECTION OVER OK/NRN TX...NOW EXTENDED FROM SOUTH OF FTW TO ABI TO WEST OF LBB AND NWD TO NEAR DHT. AIR MASS ACROSS WW 498 IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND WILL SUPPORT THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WELL ESTABLISHED COLD POOL WITH LINEAR MCS OVER THE SRN TX PANHANDLE AND THE TX SOUTH PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO AID THE EWD PROPAGATION OF THIS ACTIVITY AT 25 KT. THIS SOMEWHAT SLOW MOVEMENT SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE WIND THREAT...THOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE LIKELY. LARGE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS MOVED WWD CLOSE TO THE NM/TX BORDER IN THE TX PANHANDLE AREA...RESULTING IN LITTLE MOVEMENT OF STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE ALONG THE COLD FRONT. GIVEN MODERATE INSTABILITY AND THE TX PANHANDLE BEING CLOSER TO STRONGER FLOW ALOFT...SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE. IF A COLD POOL CAN BECOME ESTABLISHED WITH THIS ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...THEN A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS WOULD LIKELY TRACK SEWD ALONG THE FRONT/ INSTABILITY GRADIENT INTO THE ERN TX PANHANDLE. ..PETERS.. 06/19/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...ABQ... 36889988 33339996 33300207 34640198 34840301 36950306 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 19 18:00:09 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 19 Jun 2004 13:00:09 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406191800.i5JI0n215237@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 191800 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191759 ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-192000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1345 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1259 PM CDT SAT JUN 19 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN OK...WRN AR AND NE TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 191759Z - 192000Z A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE CONVECTION MOVES EWD ACROSS FAR ERN OK...WRN AR AND FAR NE TX. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR INDIVIDUAL STORMS WILL BE BRIEF AND WIND DAMAGE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. WV IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED MCV ROTATING ACROSS SERN OK AND NE TX. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CONVECTION IS APPROACHING A NARROW MOISTURE AXIS WITH STRONG INSTABILITY EXTENDING FROM TEXARKANA NWD TO FT SMITH WHERE SBCAPE VALUES CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 2500 TO 3500 J/KG. THE LINE OF STORMS CURRENTLY ACROSS ERN OK SHOULD STRENGTHEN AS THEY MOVE EWD INTO INCREASING INSTABILITY. THE DQU PROFILER ACROSS FAR SW AR SHOWS ABOUT 20 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE A THREAT FOR STRONG PULSE OR MULTICELL STORMS. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS 0-2 KM LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 7.0 C/KM ACROSS SW AR AND FAR SE OK. AS THE LINE MOVES EWD INTO THIS AXIS...A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. ..BROYLES.. 06/19/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD... 33209372 32379463 31799650 31929731 32539753 32979713 33149603 34159504 35389486 35829407 35379324 34069324 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 19 19:11:21 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 19 Jun 2004 14:11:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406191912.i5JJC0214772@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 191910 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191910 COZ000-192115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1346 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0210 PM CDT SAT JUN 19 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ECNTRL CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 191910Z - 192115Z A HAIL OR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST AS STORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE EWD ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS A DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF UTAH INTO NRN CO. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EWD TOWARD THE FRONT RANGE HELPING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. SFC TEMPS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO RISE TODAY. HOWEVER...VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING HAS DEVELOPED FROM DENVER EWD TO LIMON AND AKRON. THIS AREA WILL LIKELY HEAT UP QUICKLY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE PROBABLE BY LATE AFTERNOON SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A NARROW JET AXIS AT 500 MB EXTENDING ESEWD ACROSS WY AND NEB WITH 30 TO 40 KT OF MID-LEVEL FLOW OVER MOST OF CO. THIS IS RESULTING IN STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF 50 TO 60 KT WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SUPERCELLS GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE STORMS WILL ORGANIZE AS THEY MOVE EWD OUT OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH A HAIL THREAT OR BRIEF WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR. ..BROYLES.. 06/19/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU... 37890299 37230320 37070376 37090460 37180521 38110543 38640537 40290522 40410476 40400379 40080315 39900314 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 19 19:26:52 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 19 Jun 2004 14:26:52 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406191927.i5JJRV221606@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 191926 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191926 MEZ000-NHZ000-192130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1347 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0226 PM CDT SAT JUN 19 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...MAINE/NH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 191926Z - 192130Z MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...A SEVERE WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ORGANIZED TSTM CLUSTERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/SPREAD EWD ACROSS MAINE AND PORTIONS OF NH THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND OCCLUDED/COLD FRONT TRAVERSE THE REGION. DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION /ACROSS MUCH OF MAINE/ HAS BEEN INHIBITED BY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER MUCH OF THE DAY. HOWEVER SOME EARLY AFTERNOON CLEARING AND NARROW WARM/MOIST SECTOR BENEATH UPPER COLD POOL /-22C AT 500MB/ IS CONTRIBUTING TO MUCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG PER LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH STRONG SHEAR PROFILES/LOW FREEZING LEVELS SUGGEST MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/WIND GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH MOST VIGOROUS TSTMS. OVERALL MARGINAL/ISOLD NATURE IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE NECESSITY FOR WW ISSUANCE. ..GUYER.. 06/19/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX... 47216933 47286846 46706780 45726781 44586833 43946940 43367031 42897093 42867204 44007180 44977112 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 19 20:46:55 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 19 Jun 2004 15:46:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406192047.i5JKlY223388@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 192043 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192043 ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-192245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1348 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0343 PM CDT SAT JUN 19 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...AR...NE TX...NW LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 192043Z - 192245Z A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A LINE MOVING EWD ACROSS AR. OTHER STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS NE TX WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT AS WELL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A CONVECTIVE BOW WITH A COLD POOL IS CURRENTLY MOVING EWD ACROSS SWRN AR. THE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG AN EAST TO WEST INSTABILITY GRADIENT AND MAY TURN MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE HIGHER SFC DEWPOINTS ACROSS NRN LA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ONLY ABOUT 20 KT WHICH WILL LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. AN ADDITIONAL LIMITING FACTOR FOR DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL IS THE SLOW FORWARD MOTION (25 KT) OF THE LINE. STILL...STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOI ****ERROR: INCOMPLETE DATA   000 NTXX98 KBMX 192043 MONMSG THIS IS A TEST MESSAGE FROM BMX WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 19 21:03:12 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 19 Jun 2004 16:03:12 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406192103.i5JL3p200463@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 192058 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192057 WYZ000-192300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1349 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0357 PM CDT SAT JUN 19 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SCNTRL WY INTO SE WY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 192057Z - 192300Z MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGEST STORMS REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH /EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY/ MOVING THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MODEST DAYTIME INSOLATION HAS CONTRIBUTED TO SBCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 2000 J/KG PER LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. GIVEN MODERATE INSTABILITY...DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 35-40 KT /SUPPORTED BY MODEST CORE OF WESTERLIES/ WILL FAVOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS...WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE. ..GUYER.. 06/19/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CYS...RIW... 43480773 43560687 43420538 42900451 42310426 41650427 41100461 41060571 41120721 41240841 41860898 42680893 43400830 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 20 00:27:22 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 19 Jun 2004 19:27:22 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406200028.i5K0S1221489@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 200027 SWOMCD SPC MCD 200027 OKZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-200200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1350 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0727 PM CDT SAT JUN 19 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NM...NWRN TX PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 200027Z - 200200Z ...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WILL SPREAD ACROSS NERN NM TOWARD THE NWRN TX PANHANDLE. WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME... ISOLATED SUPERCELLS...MAINLY ACROSS SERN COLFAX AND SAN MIGUEL COUNTIES...HAVE DEVELOPED AND APPEAR TO BE ROOTED WITHIN A FAIRLY MOIST...BUT RELATIVELY COOL BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS ACTIVITY IS PROPAGATING ESEWD TOWARD THE TX PANHANDLE WHERE A SHARPENING SE-NW ORIENTED BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM JUST NORTH OF AMA...TO SW OF CAO. THIS BOUNDARY MAY BE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME THAT SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THESE STORMS MAY SPREAD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE GIVEN THE SCENARIO MENTIONED. HOWEVER...AREAL COVERAGE AND THE LIKELIHOOD THAT DIURNAL COOLING MAY BEGIN TO IMPEDE SEVERE THREAT WILL NEGATE THE ISSUANCE OF A WATCH. LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT. ..DARROW.. 06/20/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AMA...ABQ... 35340510 36750440 36910312 35910244 34930350 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 20 06:23:01 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 20 Jun 2004 01:23:01 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406200623.i5K6Nd218857@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 200623 SWOMCD SPC MCD 200622 KSZ000-200745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1351 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0122 AM CDT SUN JUN 20 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 200622Z - 200745Z POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST WITH ONGOING TSTMS. AS OF 0607Z...GOODLAND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A CLUSTER OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS ACROSS SCOTT...WICHITA AND KEARNEY COUNTIES IN W-CNTRL KS MOVING SEWD AT AROUND 20KTS. THOUGH COMPLEX APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING A PROGRESSIVELY MORE ORGANIZED COLD POOL...RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITHIN INFLOW REGION INDICATE A VERY STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH MLCIN VALUES OF OVER 400 J/KG. THIS HIGH STATIC STABILITY SHOULD LARGELY LIMIT OVERALL DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WITH ONGOING STORMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO...HOWEVER...SHOW A MODERATE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY ABOVE SURFACE INVERSION OWING TO STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE IN THE 800-750MB LAYER. THOUGH EFFECTIVE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK...STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. STRENGTHENING SSELY LLJ FROM THE TX PNHDL/WRN OK NWD INTO WRN KS SHOULD HELP SUSTAIN ONGOING STORMS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED AND A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ..MEAD.. 06/20/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD... 38340150 38500075 37939972 37389999 37280091 37640164 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 20 17:26:47 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 20 Jun 2004 12:26:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406201727.i5KHRN223208@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 201726 SWOMCD SPC MCD 201726 GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-201930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1352 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1226 PM CDT SUN JUN 20 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN FL...SRN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 201726Z - 201930Z A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER NRN FL AND SRN GA THIS AFTERNOON. SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A SEA BREEZE FRONT ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE WHERE CONVECTION IS ONGOING. A STATIONARY FRONT ALSO EXISTS FROM THE WRN FL PANHANDLE EXTENDING EWD ACROSS SRN GA TO THE COAST NORTH OF JACKSONVILLE. A BAND OF CUMULUS IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY...EVIDENT ON VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR STRONG CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. THE ATMOSPHERE IS VERY UNSTABLE ALREADY WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 3000 J/KG ACROSS SRN GA. ALTHOUGH SHEAR IS WEAK...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 8.0 C/KM JUST SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THE STRONG INSTABILITY...STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND HIGH SFC MOISTURE (LOW TO MID 70 F DEWPOINTS) WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SHORT-LIVED MARGINALLY SEVERE PULSE OR MULTICELL STORMS WITH A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS. ..BROYLES.. 06/20/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE... 30748551 31558427 31978304 32168182 32188121 31868110 31208148 30938150 30518167 30428238 30208350 29988438 29678496 29908527 30278575 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 20 18:50:04 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 20 Jun 2004 13:50:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406201850.i5KIof224456@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 201849 SWOMCD SPC MCD 201848 NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-202045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1353 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0148 PM CDT SUN JUN 20 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO...SE WY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 201848Z - 202045Z LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE LIKELY AS THE STORMS GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON BY 20Z ACROSS ERN CO AND SE WY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DISTURBANCE STRETCHED OUT FROM WRN NEB SWWD ACROSS NRN CO WHERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ATTM. OTHER STORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN THE FOOTHILLS WEST OF DENVER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A CAPPING INVERSION PRESENT EAST OF THE MTNS WHICH SHOULD INITIALLY LIMIT THE EWD EXTENT OF THE SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...THE MODERATE INSTABILITY (MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG) ALREADY IN PLACE SHOULD RESULT IN STRONG UPDRAFTS. ADDITIONAL SFC HEATING SHOULD ERODE THE CAP AND ALLOW FOR STORMS TO SPREAD EWD LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE CO PLAINS. THE SRN BRANCH OF THE MID-LEVEL JET IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS SRN WY AND NERN CO WITH ABOUT 35 TO 40 KT OF FLOW. THE PLATTEVILLE CO WIND PROFILER CONFIRMS THIS WITH ABOUT 40 KT AT 5 KM WHICH WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. 500 MB TEMPS OF -12C AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 7.0 AND 8.0 C/KM WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL. DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE CONSIDERING THE STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE. ..BROYLES.. 06/20/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...CYS... 38780572 39220587 40380592 41230596 41550584 41660512 41570422 41040404 39110399 38790416 38740481  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 20 19:35:20 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 20 Jun 2004 14:35:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406201935.i5KJZu213168@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 201933 SWOMCD SPC MCD 201932 TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-202130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1354 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0232 PM CDT SUN JUN 20 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...TX AND OK PANHANDLES...NE NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 201932Z - 202130Z LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE LIKELY WITH STORMS THAT DEVELOP AND MOVE EWD ACROSS THE TX AND OK PANHANDLE. AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST. A WW WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DRAPED NW TO SE ACROSS THE WRN AND SRN TX PANHANDLE FROM THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION. SFC TEMPS HAVE WARMED QUICKLY SOUTHWEST OF THE BOUNDARY AND MLCAPE VALUES CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE CAPPING INVERSION OVER THE AREA IS WEAKENING ACROSS THE SW TX PANHANDLE AND INITIATION APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING JUST TO THE NW OF AMARILLO. THE AMA 88D VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWS 30 TO 35 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR WHICH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. THE STRONG INSTABILITY IN PLACE WILL RESULT IN A LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL. 0-2 KM LAPSE RATES OF 7.5 TO 8.5 C/KM WILL ALSO FAVOR WIND DAMAGE AS WELL. ..BROYLES.. 06/20/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DDC...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ... 37030130 36320039 35500015 34910097 34540195 34860277 35590346 36250371 36740317 37090189 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 20 20:06:40 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 20 Jun 2004 15:06:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406202007.i5KK7G224503@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202003 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202003 NMZ000-202200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1355 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0303 PM CDT SUN JUN 20 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 202003Z - 202200Z STRONG CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN ERN NM AND SPREAD EWD WITH A POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IN NE NM EXTENDING SSEWD INTO W TX. CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING NEAR THE BOUNDARY IN THE HIGH TERRAIN OVER NE NM. STORMS ARE ALSO ONGOING IN THE SACRAMENTO MTNS IN SE NM. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD EWD INTO MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS FAR ERN NM AND GRADUAL STRENGTHENING SHOULD OCCUR. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR ERN NM SHOW WEAKLY VEERING WIND PROFILES WITH 500 MB WIND SPEEDS OF 20 TO 25 KT. CONSIDERING THE INSTABILITY IN PLACE...MULTICELL STORMS WILL BE LIKELY WITH HAIL POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. SFC OBS ACROSS ERN NM SHOW LARGE TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS IN PLACE. VERY STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH THE INVERTED V PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS WELL. ..BROYLES.. 06/20/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ... 32380419 32410354 32800319 34500315 35740328 36300348 36930409 36890494 36540550 35660527 34840509 33500508 32840496 32480478  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 20 20:23:58 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 20 Jun 2004 15:23:58 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406202024.i5KKOY230585@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202020 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202019 WYZ000-COZ000-MTZ000-UTZ000-IDZ000-202215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1356 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0319 PM CDT SUN JUN 20 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WY/ERN ID/NW AND NCNTRL CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 202019Z - 202215Z MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE WITH STRONGEST TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH SHEARED UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. MODEST HEATING AND MOISTURE /SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S/ ARE CONTRIBUTING TO SBCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG FROM ERN ID INTO WY/NRN CO PER LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY BENEATH 40-45 KT MID LEVEL WLY FLOW /AS EVIDENT ON MEDICINE BOW PROFILER AND LATEST RUC DIAGNOSTICS/ SUGGESTS A SEVERE THREAT WITH MOST VIGOROUS TSTMS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. PRIMARY HAZARD WOULD LIKELY BE LARGE HAIL OWING TO 8.5 C/KM /OR GREATER/ MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 500 MB TEMPERATURES OF -14C TO -18C. MARGINAL/ISOLD NATURE OF SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE WW ISSUANCE. ..GUYER.. 06/20/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...UNR...BOU...CYS...BYZ...RIW...GJT...TFX...SLC...PIH... 45191098 44860746 44250512 43660451 43030447 41820484 40460554 39900624 40180846 41411099 42811180 44261202 44781191 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 20 22:15:09 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 20 Jun 2004 17:15:09 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406202215.i5KMFj208850@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202214 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202213 NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-210045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1357 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0513 PM CDT SUN JUN 20 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME E-CENTRAL/SERN WY...SWRN SD...NEB PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 202213Z - 210045Z ISOLATED SEVERE TSTMS POSSIBLE ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA -- FROM BLACK HILLS REGION SSWWD TOWARD CO/WY/NEB BORDER CONFLUENCE...AND SHIFTING SEWD ACROSS PARTS OF NEB PANHANDLE. OCCASIONAL LARGE HAIL AND GUSTS NEAR SEVERE LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE. WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM BUT MAY BE REQUIRED LATER THIS EVENING IF POTENTIAL INCREASES FOR MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE CLUSTER OR MCS. 21Z SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD ACROSS NERN WY...THROUGH FRONTAL-WAVE LOW LOCATED BETWEEN WRL-CPR...THEN ARCHING SEWD THROUGH PORTIONS NIOBRARA/PLATTE/ALBANY/CARBON COUNTIES. MOIST SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO SWRN SD AND NEB PANHANDLE THROUGH EVENING. WEAK SFC WARM FRONT IS EVIDENT FROM SRN BLACK HILLS SEWD ACROSS WRN NEB SANDHILLS TO NEAR LBF -- CORRESPONDING WELL TO OBJECTIVELY ANALYZED MLCAPE GRADIENT OVER REGION. POSSIBLE SUPERCELL ENTERING FALL RIVER COUNTY SD AT 22Z SHOULD MOVE SEWD ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...EVENTUALLY REACHING WRN CHERRY COUNTY NEB WITH LARGE HAIL MAIN THREAT. OTHER STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS S OF WARM FRONT WILL CROSS PORTIONS NEB PANHANDLE WHERE MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL FLOW IS RELATIVELY WEAK PER LBF VWP AND RUC SOUNDINGS...60 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR IS FAVORABLE FOR STORM ROTATION. ..EDWARDS.. 06/20/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...BOU...CYS... 41030516 41190551 41550560 41840540 42160496 42680405 43420388 43840328 43560271 43190197 42590133 41850100 41270140 40990201 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 20 22:31:14 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 20 Jun 2004 17:31:14 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406202232.i5KMWo215476@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202231 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202230 TXZ000-210130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1358 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0530 PM CDT SUN JUN 20 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS W TX...INCLUDING PERMIAN BASIN/LOWER PECOS VALLEY REGIONS. CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 202230Z - 210130Z TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE GREATLY IN COVERAGE OVER THIS REGION THROUGH AT LEAST 03Z...MOVING SLOWLY WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN RATES OF 2-3 INCHES/HOUR. ISOLATED GUSTS/HAIL NEAR SEVERE LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL...BUT GREATER HAZARD WILL RESULT FROM HEAVY RAIN. CONVECTION NOW INCREASING BETWEEN ABI-LBB...TSTMS MOVING NWD FROM NRN COAHUILA...AND CONVECTION S-SE OF MAF WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL INITIALLY. OTHERWISE STRONGEST ACTIVITY SHOULD FORM ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERSECTIONS WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED. VIS IMAGERY SHOWS PERSISTENT CYCLONIC GYRE -- ASSOCIATED WITH OLD MCV -- OVER CULBERSON COUNTY. EXPECT LOW-MIDLEVEL FORCING FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT THIS EVENING TO ITS E. CAP IS WEAKENING WITH SFC TEMPS MID-UPPER 90S F IN SOME AREAS. MODIFIED MAF RAOB AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE. LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...I.E. ROUGHLY 10-15 KT...BUT IS SLY THROUGH A DEEP LAYER WHERE 1.5 INCH PW ARE PRESENT. STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW -- GIVEN EXPECTED QUASISTATIONARY CELL MOTIONS AND AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE -- SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT LOCALLY HAZARDOUS RAIN RATES. BOTH RUC AND ETA REASONABLY INDICATE CONSIDERABLE CONVECTIVE PRECIP OVER THIS AREA BEFORE 06Z. ..EDWARDS.. 06/20/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF... 29730260 30510290 31890268 32900237 33430163 33680083 33640045 33430007 33009985 32050032 31000092 29790158 29780173 29810182 29810193 29790200 29780212 29820215 29850219 29840222 29880227 29850233 29790235 29770240 29780246 29770250 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 20 22:49:12 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 20 Jun 2004 17:49:12 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406202250.i5KMon222308@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202249 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202248 TXZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-KSZ000-210015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1359 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0548 PM CDT SUN JUN 20 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NERN NM...TX/OK PANHANDLES...NW OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 500... VALID 202248Z - 210015Z SEVERE TSTMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER PORTIONS WW 500...AND POTENTIAL IS INCREASING OVER PORTIONS OK/TX PANHANDLES E OF WW. THEREFORE EITHER NEW WW OR REPLACEMENT MAY BE REQUIRED BY ABOUT 00Z. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS DRYLINE FROM BETWEEN PUB-TAD SEWD TO NEAR UNION/COLFAX COUNTY BORDER IN NM...THEN SSEWD TO NEAR CVS. TSTMS FORMING ALONG DRYLINE NEAR CVS...AND IN EXPANDING CLUSTER AHEAD OF DRYLINE OVER DALLAM TX/CIMARRON OK COUNTIES...MAY PRODUCE SEVERE HAIL.WIND AS THEY MOVE EWD OVER NEXT COUPLE HOURS. LATTER ACTIVITY COULD ORGANIZE INTO BOW ECHO AND ACCELERATE EWD ACROSS OK PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT ROW OF TX COUNTIES...AS IT MOVES INTO FAVORABLY SHEARED AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES 8-9 DEG C/KM AND SFC DEW POINTS MID 60S F CONTRIBUTING TO 2500-3000 J/KG MLCAPE OVER MUCH OF PANHANDLES. ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR DECREASES WITH SWD EXTENT BUT WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR BOTH BOWS AND SUPERCELLS...WITH 150-250 J/KG SRH IN 0-3 KM LAYER AND 40-50 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR OVER OK PANHANDLE. ..EDWARDS.. 06/20/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AMA...PUB...ABQ...OUN...DDC... 34750321 37000502 36970187 34770021 37000187 37000059 37009959 36509938 35979948 35259963 34750021 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 20 23:09:13 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 20 Jun 2004 18:09:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406202309.i5KN9m229206@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202309 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202308 NEZ000-COZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-210115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1360 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0608 PM CDT SUN JUN 20 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN CO...WRN KS...SMALL PART OF SWRN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 499...501... VALID 202308Z - 210115Z TSTMS HAVE INCREASED GREATLY IN COVERAGE OVER CO FROM FOOTHILLS EWD ALMOST TO KS BORDER...SOME OF WHICH WILL MOVE INTO KS OVER NEXT 2-3 HOURS WITH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR BOTH BOW ECHOES AND SUPERCELLS ACROSS PRECONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENTS IN THESE WWS...WITH 0-6 KM AGL SHEARS RANGING FROM 45-60 KT. SEVERAL CANDIDATES FOR EVENTUAL NOCTURNAL MCS EXIST ATTM... 1. LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING SEWD FROM NERN CO TOWARD MCK-GLD CORRIDOR... 2. STORMS OVER PORTIONS PUEBLO/CROWLEY COUNTIES CO AS OF 23Z...EVOLVING INTO BOW ECHO AND MOVING TOWARD LHX/LAA CORRIDOR... 3. BROKEN ARC OF TSTMS FROM BACA COUNTY CO SWD INTO PORTIONS OK/TX PANHANDLES... 4. NEWLY FORMING BAND OF CONVECTION FROM WALLACE COUNTY KS SWWD ACROSS KIOWA COUNTY CO. FCST POSITION/ORIENTATION OF LLJ AFTER 00Z FAVORS ACTIVITY CURRENTLY CLOSEST TO WRN KS...WHERE LOW LEVEL MOIST ADVECTION ABOVE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL COMBINE WITH 8-9 DEG C/KM MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES TO YIELD AROUND 3000 J/KG ELEVATED MUCAPE. ..EDWARDS.. 06/20/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...GID...DDC...AMA... 37000208 37000503 40990515 40990204 36990208 40340232 40339969 37039942 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 21 01:40:15 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 20 Jun 2004 20:40:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406210141.i5L1f1217826@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 210140 SWOMCD SPC MCD 210139 KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-210345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1361 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0839 PM CDT SUN JUN 20 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...MOST OF TX/OK PANHANDLES...PORTIONS NWRN AND EXTREME W-CENTRAL OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 502... VALID 210139Z - 210345Z THREAT APPEARS TO HAVE DIMINISHED SUBSTANTIALLY OVER SRN PORTION WW -- ESSENTIALLY ALONG AND S OF I-40 -- WHERE CONVECTIVE FORCING SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL AND WHERE VERTICAL SHEAR IS RELATIVELY WEAK. HOWEVER SEVERE POTENTIAL CONTINUES FARTHER N -- BOTH 1. WITH ONGOING/SLIGHTLY BACKBUILDING ACTIVITY MOVING EWD ACROSS NRN TX/OK PANHANDLES...AND 2. POTENTIALLY WITH TAIL END OF SERN CO MCS MOVING SEWD INTO SWRN KS TOWARD NERN OK PANHANDLE. BY 6Z RUC REASONABLY FCSTS 45 KT 850 MB LLJ OVER NERN TX PANHANDLE... WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT FROM THERE NEWD ACROSS ERN OK PANHANDLE/NWRN OK INTO SWRN KS. THIS SHOULD INCREASE STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW INTO ONGOING PANHANDLES CONVECTION. LLJ CAN DESTABILIZE AIR MASS BEHIND THAT ACTIVITY AS WELL...INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR UPSTREAM MCS TO CONTINUE AND BACKBUILD SWD SOMEWHAT AND AFFECT NERN PORTIONS WW. MODIFIED AMA/DDC RAOBS AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 1500-2000 J/KG ELEVATED MUCAPE CAN BE MAINTAINED JUST ABOVE DIABATICALLY COOLED SFC LAYER. ..EDWARDS.. 06/21/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...ABQ... 34909944 34890311 37020197 37009830 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 21 02:52:56 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 20 Jun 2004 21:52:56 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406210253.i5L2rV211393@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 210252 SWOMCD SPC MCD 210252 KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-NEZ000-210415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1362 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0952 PM CDT SUN JUN 20 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CENTRAL KS...SWRN/S-CENTRAL NEB...NWRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 501...502... VALID 210252Z - 210415Z SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF SEVERE OR POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSTMS CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD TO SEWD ACROSS CORRIDOR FROM NERN TX PANHANDLE/NWRN OK NWD TO VICINITY LBF. THREAT FOR DAMAGING GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL SHOULD CONTINUE E OF PRESENT WWS PAST 06Z...PRIMARILY IN FORM OF BOW ECHOES. THEREFORE ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE MAY BE REQUIRED WITHIN CORRIDOR FROM S-CENTRAL NEB SWD TO N-CENTRAL OK. SRN MCS/S OVER NWRN OK AND EXTREME SWRN KS/NRN OK PANHANDLE MAY HAVE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR MAINTAINING SEVERE POTENTIAL OVER NXT 4-6 HOURS GIVEN THEIR PROXIMITY TO RELATIVELY RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PORTIONS OF 30-40 KT LLJ. MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ELEVATED MUCAPE 2000-3000 J/KG OVER NRN OK...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TO 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE OVER S-CENTRAL NEB. ..EDWARDS.. 06/21/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ...TOP...GID...LBF...GLD... 34899949 34870310 37000204 37029825 40360058 41050065 41420024 41449966 41169866 40669810 40069787 39349774 37419744 36809743 36259752 35869792 35719827 35689901 37009824 37029940 40329965 37029940 37030196 39000217 39130099 40310074 40339967  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 21 05:59:53 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 21 Jun 2004 00:59:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406210600.i5L60Y216669@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 210559 SWOMCD SPC MCD 210559 OKZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-210700- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1363 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1259 AM CDT MON JUN 21 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SE NEB...ERN KS AND NERN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 503...504... VALID 210559Z - 210700Z TRENDS IN STORM INTENSITY WILL BE MONITORED NEXT 45 MINUTES OR SO. IF STORMS CAN PERSIST WITHOUT UNDERGOING A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN INTENSITY DURING THIS TIME FRAME...ANOTHER WW MAY BE NEEDED...MOST LIKELY FOR PARTS OF ERN KS SWD THROUGH NERN OK. A COUPLE OF MCSS WITH EMBEDDED LINES AND BOW ECHOES CONTINUE EAST THROUGH ERN NEB...CNTRL KS AND N CNTRL OK AT AROUND 36 KT. AT THIS SPEED...THE STORMS WILL BEGIN MOVING EAST OF WW 504 BY 630Z. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DATA SHOW THE STORMS ARE NOW MOVING THROUGH THE AXIS OF STRONGEST INSTABILITY AND WILL ENCOUNTER WEAKER INSTABILITY AS THEY MOVE EAST. THIS SUGGEST ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND AS IT CONTINUES EWD. THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY REMAINS OVER PARTS OF OK INTO KS...AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAY BE SLOWER TO DIMINISH THAN WITH ACTIVITY FARTHER N. SWLY 30-40 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STORMS BACKBUILDING N OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS WRN AND CNTRL OK. BUT PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN. ..DIAL.. 06/21/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...OAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID... 35349718 35899827 41099814 40789602 36419486 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 21 07:00:59 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 21 Jun 2004 02:00:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406210701.i5L71Y208980@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 210700 SWOMCD SPC MCD 210700 OKZ000-TXZ000-211000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1364 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0200 AM CDT MON JUN 21 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN THROUGH E CNTRL OK CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 210700Z - 211000Z HEAVY RAIN WITH RATES LOCALLY 1.5 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN A NARROW BAND ACROSS NRN OK...GRADUALLY SPREADING EWD AND SWD THROUGH EARLY MORNING. THIS MORNING AN E-W CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NWRN OK S OF GAGE EWD TO S OF STILLWATER. THE ATMOSPHERE S OF THIS BOUNDARY IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND A SWLY 40 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO SUSTAIN THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH THETA-E ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT ABOVE THE OUTFLOW. THE STORMS WILL SPREAD EAST WITH TIME AND SOME SWD DEVELOPMENT MIGHT ALSO OCCUR AS THE COLD POOL FORCES THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FARTHER SWD. TRAINING CELLS ALONG AND N OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MIGHT ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. ..DIAL.. 06/21/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...AMA... 36340004 36499734 36029526 34989561 35319732 35579881 35729990 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 21 17:24:47 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 21 Jun 2004 12:24:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406211725.i5LHPK210419@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 211724 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211724 TNZ000-MSZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-211900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1365 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1224 PM CDT MON JUN 21 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AR / NWRN MS / WRN TN / MO BOOTHEEL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 211724Z - 211900Z THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST TO REDEVELOP / INTENSIFY ALONG COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. HOWEVER...WEAK DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD SUGGESTS ONLY ISOLATED / PULSE TYPE CONVECTION. THEREFORE...WW ISSUANCE NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS ACROSS SERN AR / NWRN MS...WHERE AXIS OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE IS INDICATED ATTM. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AT LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CONTINUES MOVING EWD / SEWD ACROSS AR...BUT LOW-LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION INDICATED BY MORNING LIT SOUNDING APPEARS TO HAVE SUPPRESSED WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG OUTFLOW OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. WITHIN THE LAST HOUR OR SO...FEW STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS SERN AR...WHERE HEATING / DESTABILIZATION HAS ALLOWED CAP TO WEAKEN. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG OUTFLOW OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS WITH CONTINUED HEATING / DESTABILIZATION OF AIRMASS. DESPITE THE LIKELIHOOD OF FURTHER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND FAVORABLE INSTABILITY...DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK ACROSS THIS REGION...SUGGESTING ONLY MULTICELL ORGANIZATION AT BEST. THEREFORE...ALTHOUGH HAIL AND PERHAPS LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH STRONGER STORMS...POTENTIAL FOR MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND THUS MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE LIMITED. ALTHOUGH WW IN NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM...WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE REGION ALONG AND AHEAD OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. SHOULD THE STORMS BECOME MORE ORGANIZED ON THE MESOSCALE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY. ..GOSS.. 06/21/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV... 36669067 36888917 36098824 34398856 32919070 32789280 33059424 34089413 35419107 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 21 17:44:13 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 21 Jun 2004 12:44:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406211744.i5LHij221937@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 211743 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211743 MIZ000-WIZ000-211915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1366 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1243 PM CDT MON JUN 21 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CENTRAL UPPER MI / NRN AND WRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 211743Z - 211915Z THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG SURFACE FRONT FROM WRN UPPER MI SWWD INTO W CENTRAL WI. DESPITE LOCAL THREAT FOR MARGINAL HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS...WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LIMITED HEATING OCCURRING ALONG SURFACE FRONT WHICH NOW EXTENDS FROM JUST E OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA TO N OF LSE /LA CROSSE WI/. SHOWERS / A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY ATTM...ALTHOUGH MEAN-LAYER CAPE LESS THAN 500 J/KG HAS RESULTED IN LIMITED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE / INTENSITY. WITH CLOUDS / SHOWERS EVIDENT ACROSS CENTRAL WI INTO THE WRN AND CENTRAL UPPER PENINSULA OF MI ATTM...FURTHER DESTABILIZATION OF AIRMASS WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED. HOWEVER...WITH 40 TO 50 KT MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THIS REGION...WIND FIELD IS SUPPORTIVE OF UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION. SOME INTENSIFICATION OF ONGOING CONVECTION SHOULD OCCUR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...ALONG WITH AN ACCOMPANYING THREAT FOR LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS / HAIL. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THIS REGION...AS FURTHER INSTABILITY WITHIN FAVORABLY-SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WOULD RESULT IN A GREATER SEVERE THREAT THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. ..GOSS.. 06/21/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...APX...MQT...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...MPX... 46808895 47118761 46548551 43918787 43519047 44599221 45959096 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 21 19:27:59 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 21 Jun 2004 14:27:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406211928.i5LJSV227657@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 211926 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211925 OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-212100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1367 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0225 PM CDT MON JUN 21 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO / NERN NM / FAR SWRN KS / TX AND OK PANHANDLES INTO WRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 211925Z - 212100Z THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP / SPREAD ESEWD FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SERN CO / NERN NM INTO THE TX / OK PANHANDLE REGION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. WE ARE MONITORING THIS REGION FOR WW ISSUANCE. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SYNOPTIC-SCALE FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS SWRN KS INTO THE TX PANHANDLE...WITH LOW JUST W OF AMA ATTM. MORE SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARY HOWEVER APPEARS TO BE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THIS LOW ESEWD ALONG / JUST S OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ATTM ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SERN CO...WITH CU DEVELOPMENT NOTED AS FAR S AS NERN NM -- ALL WITHIN NARROW INSTABILITY AXIS / ZONE ELY LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW. ALTHOUGH AIRMASS REMAINS MORE CAPPED SEWD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE...PERSISTENT LIFT INVOF LOW / SURFACE BOUNDARIES COMBINED WITH FURTHER DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING CAP / STORM DEVELOPMENT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS REGION -- PARTICULARLY TIMING WITH REGARD TO DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS ALONG BOUNDARY -- AS DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE / ROTATING STORMS. WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED WITHIN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS ACROSS THIS REGION. ..GOSS.. 06/21/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...GJT... 38580501 38230389 37590175 37069880 34149948 33680104 34980337 36550526 38250637 38930598  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 21 19:37:02 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 21 Jun 2004 14:37:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406211937.i5LJbY200538@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 211936 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211936 ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-212100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1368 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0236 PM CDT MON JUN 21 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...N TX / SERN OK / SWRN AR / NERN LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 211936Z - 212100Z THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG SEWD-MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. WE ARE MONITORING THIS REGION FOR POTENTIAL WW ISSUANCE. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS VERY MOIST AIRMASS S OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS N TX AND VICINITY...WHERE DAYTIME HEATING HAS ALLOWED 2000 TO 2500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE TO DEVELOP. ALTHOUGH AREA VAD / VWP DATA INDICATES FAIRLY WEAK DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD -- PARTICULARLY FROM N CENTRAL TX WWD...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THAT PULSE-TYPE SEVERE STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED. STORMS WHICH DEVELOP ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS N TX ARE BEING RAPIDLY UNDERCUT AS BOUNDARY MOVES SEWD...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE HAIL. GREATEST THREAT FOR LOCALLY STRONG WINDS APPEARS TO BE EWD INTO NERN TX / SERN AR WHERE SOMEWHAT STRONGER DEEP-LAYER FLOW EXISTS AND STORMS ARE BECOMING LESS RAPIDLY UNDERCUT BY OUTFLOW. ..GOSS.. 06/21/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF... 33650008 33419867 33589639 34089471 34419366 33299269 32759401 32239658 31799972 31950050 32660130 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 21 22:23:22 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 21 Jun 2004 17:23:22 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406212224.i5LMOA205643@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 212222 SWOMCD SPC MCD 212221 TXZ000-212345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1369 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0521 PM CDT MON JUN 21 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS N-CENTRAL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 212221Z - 212345Z ALTHOUGH AMBIENT FLOW AND SHEAR FIELDS WILL REMAIN WEAK TO MARGINAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT...SOME SEVERE WIND/HAIL POTENTIAL IS POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 0030Z OVER PORTIONS EASTLAND/BROWN COUNTIES EWD PAST SEP AREA TO SWRN FRINGES DFW METROPLEX. RISK APPEARS TOO SHORT-LIVED AND SMALL IN AREA FOR WW. REFLECTIVITY LOOPS AND SFC MAP INDICATE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING SSWWD 10-15 KT ATTM ACROSS JONES/SHACKELFORD/SRN STEPHENS/NERN EASTLAND/NRN ERATH AND HOOD COUNTIES. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD GRADUALLY DECELERATE AND INTERACT WITH N-S BAND OF TSTMS...WHICH WAS MOVING EWD ROUGHLY 15 KT ACROSS CALLAHAN/COLEMAN COUNTIES AS OF 22Z. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED ALONG RESULTANT INTERSECTION. STORM-SCALE LIFT/SHEAR ENHANCEMENT SHOULD YIELD SOMEWHAT GREATER POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS AND AT LEAST MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THAN ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR PARAMETERS SUGGEST...GIVEN AROUND 2500 J/KG MLCAPE ESTIMATED IN PRE-STORM AIR MASS. VWP AND RUC HODOGRAPHS ARE SMALL...BUT WITH STRONG VERTICAL VEERING THROUGH LOWEST 4-5 KM AGL. LOW-MIDLEVEL WIND SPEEDS ARE RELATIVELY WEAK...SUPPORTING POTENTIAL FOR FAIRLY RAPID TRANSITION TO OUTFLOW DOMINANCE ONCE STORMS GENERATE COLD POOLS. MAIN CONVECTIVE MODE SHOULD REMAIN MULTICELLULAR/LINEAR. ..EDWARDS.. 06/21/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT... 31529839 31489867 31489923 31589926 32079919 32419915 32509895 32389849 32439783 32459752 32229737 31749782 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 21 23:37:46 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 21 Jun 2004 18:37:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406212338.i5LNcL212207@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 212337 SWOMCD SPC MCD 212336 MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-220130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1370 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0636 PM CDT MON JUN 21 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NRN LA...SERN AR...W-CENTRAL MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 212336Z - 220130Z LEADING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM TWO ONGOING CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES MAY MERGE BETWEEN SHV-GWO OVER NEXT 2-3 HOURS...BRIEFLY RESULTING IN ENHANCED LOW LEVEL LIFT AND SEVERE GUST/HAIL POTENTIAL. THEREAFTER COLLECTIVE CONVECTIVE MASS SHOULD WEAKEN BECAUSE OF INGESTION OF INCREASINGLY COOL/STABLE AIR RESULTING FROM BOTH DIABATIC SFC COOLING AND OUTFLOW. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY TOO...WITH RATES UP TO NEAR 3 INCHES/HOUR EXPECTED. TSTMS THAT ORIGINATED ON GULF COAST SEA BREEZE GENERALLY ARE MOVING NWD 15-20 KT ACROSS CENTRAL LA AND SRN MS. IRREGULARLY SHAPED COLLECTION OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES PRECEDES MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY AND IS MOVING NWD AS WELL. MEANWHILE SOMEWHAT BETTER ORGANIZED LINE OF TSTMS OVER SERN AR AND WRN PORTIONS LA/AR BORDER REGION IS MOVING SEWD APPROXIMATELY 25 KT. THIS ACTIVITY CARRIES MARGINAL LARGE HAIL THREAT AND POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS THAT ARE BELOW 50 KT SEVERE CRITERIA...BUT STILL CAPABLE OF OCCASIONAL DAMAGE. ADDITIONAL TSTMS MAY DEVELOP IN DISCUSSION AREA WHEN THEIR OUTFLOWS MERGE -- INITIALLY OVER BIENVILLE PARISH AROUND 0030Z AND SOMEWHAT LATER FARTHER ENE. IN BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS...VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER COMBINED WITH AROUND 3500-400O J/KG MLCAPE MAY CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WET DOWNBURSTS WITH ANY TSTMS THAT DEVELOP. 1.75-2 INCH PW AND 18-19 G/KG MEAN MIXING RATIOS...GIVEN LARGE AVAILABLE CAPE...SUGGEST TSTMS WILL BE PROLIFIC RAIN PRODUCERS AS WELL. ..EDWARDS.. 06/21/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...SHV... 32489156 32229265 32099336 32459362 32729334 33189156 33599085 33339035 32819047 32619106 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 21 23:57:47 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 21 Jun 2004 18:57:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406212358.i5LNwI222944@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 212357 SWOMCD SPC MCD 212357 TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-220130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1371 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0657 PM CDT MON JUN 21 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SERN CO...NERN NM...WRN OK PANHANDLE...TX PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 505... VALID 212357Z - 220130Z SEVERE POTENTIAL HAS DIMINISHED MARKEDLY OVER SERN CO BECAUSE OF OUTFLOW-RELATED STABILIZATION OVER MOST OF REGION...AND/OR IMMINENT STABILIZATION AS IN BACA COUNTY. OTHERWISE RISK OF SEVERE WIND/HAIL CONTINUE BOTH WITH ISOLATE TSTMS OVER TX PANHANDLE...AND WITH POTENTIAL MCS MOVING SEWD FROM NERN NM. SEVERE THREAT ALSO MAY INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING SE OF PRESENT WW...AND REPLACEMENT WW IS BEING CONSIDERED FOR ISSUANCE BEFORE SCHEDULED 2Z EXPIRATION OF WW 505. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS LOW INVOF TCC...WITH BLENDED DRYLINE AND FRONTAL ZONE NWWD TOWARD SRN PORTION OF CONVECTION OVER UNION/HARDING COUNTIES NM. SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDS ENEWD FROM LOW ACROSS DHT/GAG AREAS AND SHOULD REMAIN QUASISTATIONARY. MEANWHILE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM MORNING MCS -- ANALYZED FROM SRN DFW METROPLEX WWD ACROSS SHACKELFORD COUNTY THEN NWWD INTO SFC LOW...SHOULD BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY AS WELL. EXPECT MOST FAVORABLE AIR MASS TO REMAIN N THROUGH ESE OF SFC LOW...NEAR FRONTAL ZONE AND N OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. IN THIS SECTOR...DEEP LAYER OF SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND 20-30 KT AS PER AMA VWP SHOULD ENHANCE LOW LEVEL SR INFLOW QUITE FAVORABLY FOR BOTH ISOLATED CENTRAL PANHANDLE SUPERCELL AND LARGER CONVECTIVE CLUSTER MOVING SEWD TOWARD WRN PANHANDLE. 0-6 KM AGL SHEARS 50 KT ARE INDICATED WITH THIS PROFILE...AND THOUGH PREDOMINANT CONVECTIVE THREATS ARE WIND/HAIL...A TORNADO OR TWO MAY OCCUR WITH ISOLATED/DISCRETE STORMS. RICH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE...WITH SFC DEW POINTS COMMONLY IN 60S F CONTRIBUTING TO AROUND 3000 J/KG MLCAPE THROUGH ABOUT 2Z. AIR MASS HAS DESTABILIZED ACROSS PORTIONS SERN TX PANHANDLE AND SWRN OK N OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...MAKING IT INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG-SEVERE CONVECTION. MOST PROBABLE SCENARIO IS FOR PANHANDLE ACTIVITY TO MERGE AND EVOLVE INTO WIND DAMAGE PRODUCING MCS WHICH THEN WOULD MOVE INTO THIS AREA LATE THIS EVENING. ..EDWARDS.. 06/21/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DDC...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ... 34740069 34770321 37750492 37750240 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 22 00:53:12 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 21 Jun 2004 19:53:12 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406220053.i5M0rl219876@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 220053 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220052 MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-220215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1372 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0752 PM CDT MON JUN 21 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SRN KS/NRN OK INTO SW MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 220052Z - 220215Z MARGINAL/ISOLD SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST THIS EVENING ACROSS FAR SRN KS/NRN OK INTO SW MO. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. SCATTERED TSTMS DEVELOPING ALONG COLD FRONT MAY POSE ISOLD SEVERE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUST HAZARD THIS EVENING. MODIFIED 18Z LAMONT OK SOUNDING FOR AMBIENT CONDITIONS REVEALS AROUND 1500 J/KG SBCAPE INVOF COLD FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS FAR SRN/SE KS AND NCNTRL/NE OK. ALTHOUGH AIRMASS HAS RECOVERED IN WAKE OF MORNING MCS AND MARGINAL/MODERATE INSTABILITY IS NOW IN PLACE...LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK/UNIDIRECTIONAL AMBIENT WIND FIELDS /E.G. 30-35 KT MID LEVEL WLY WINDS/. OVERALL ISOLD/MARGINAL NATURE IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE WW ISSUANCE. ..GUYER.. 06/22/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC... 38259376 38189331 37599308 36719326 36189417 35879551 35709756 36169899 36549930 36919952 37589736 38099498 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 22 03:18:29 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 21 Jun 2004 22:18:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406220319.i5M3J2225968@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 220318 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220317 TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-220445- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1373 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1017 PM CDT MON JUN 21 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...TX PANHANDLE...PORTIONS WRN/NRN OK...NWRN TX AND TX SOUTH PLAINS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 506... VALID 220317Z - 220445Z CONTINUE WW 506 ALONG/AHEAD OF ONGOING CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS TX PANHANDLE. AIR MASS ACROSS NWRN PANHANDLE HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY STABILIZED BY RECENT TSTMS...AND WHILE NEW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE...ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT HAS DIMINISHED NW OF AMA. MEANWHILE AREAS E OF WW 506 IN PORTIONS NRN/WRN OK ARE BEING PLACED UNDER WW 507 AS SEVERE POTENTIAL THERE INCREASES. ISOLATED/LONG-LIVED SUPERCELL -- MERGED WITH SEVERAL OTHER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AND STILL LIKELY PRODUCING DAMAGING HAIL/WIND -- SHOULD MOVE SEWD ALONG RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TOWARD KING/DICKENS/MOTLEY/COTTLE COUNTIES. SEPARATE CLUSTER OF STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS -- WITH OCCASIONAL/EMBEDDED MESOCYCLONES -- COVERS AMA AREA SWWD TOWARD SFC LOW NEAR NM BORDER AND WILL ALSO SHIFT SEWD INTO E-CENTRAL/SERN TX PANHANDLE. ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THIS REGION REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR BOTH SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHO DEVELOPMENT. LBB VWP INDICATES 30-35 KT SELY FLOW IN LOWEST KM AGL...RESULTING IN 40-50 KT STORM-RELATIVE LOW LEVEL INFLOW AND ABOUT 60 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR. SOME CINH IS EVIDENT JUST OFF SFC IN RUC FCST SOUNDINGS...ASSOCIATED WITH DIABATIC BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING...HOWEVER MUCAPE NEAR 2000 J/KG REMAINS CONDUCIVE FOR SEVERE UPDRAFTS...PARTICULARLY WHEN AUGMENTED WITH AMBIENT SHEAR. SEVERE HAIL/GUSTS MAY OCCUR E OF WW ACROSS PORTIONS W-CENTRAL/NWRN OK -- GENERALLY BETWEEN SFC FRONT AND I-40 -- THROUGH AT LEAST 6Z. VERTICAL SHEAR...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY EACH ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE WITH EWD EXTENT. HOWEVER AIR MASS JUST OFF SFC SHOULD DESTABILIZE OVER NEXT FEW HOURS WITH WAA ATOP OLD OUTFLOW POOL. ..EDWARDS.. 06/22/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...ABQ... 33469860 33410188 36210362 36240019 36180013 36439894 36689850 36689798 35939775 35169769 34629919 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 22 04:28:32 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 21 Jun 2004 23:28:32 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406220429.i5M4T3228916@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 220428 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220427 OKZ000-TXZ000-220600- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1374 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1127 PM CDT MON JUN 21 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS WRN...CENTRAL AND SRN OK...AND SMALL PART OF NW TX CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 507... VALID 220427Z - 220600Z MEASURED SEVERE GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL HAVE BEEN REPORTED WITH CONVECTION OVER WRN OK -- NOW MOVING PAST CSM -- DURING PAST 1-2 HOURS. EXPECT SOME SEVERE WIND/HAIL POTENTIAL TO EXTEND SWD/SEWD TOWARD FSI/SPS REGION...POSSIBLY AS FAR E AS PORTIONS OKC AREA-- THROUGH NEXT FEW HOURS. LATTER AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE NEW WW. MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW APPROXIMATELY 1500-2000 J/KG MUCAPE AVAILABLE TO THIS ACTIVITY. LOW LEVEL STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE WITH ACTIVITY MOVING SEWD INTO 20-30 KT ABSOLUTE FLOW -- THROUGH 0-3 KM AGL LAYER. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN PLENTIFUL THROUGHOUT LOW LEVELS WITH 70-90 PERCENT RH IN LOWEST 300 MB LAYER...15-16 G/KG MEAN MIXING RATIOS AND AROUND 1.75 INCH PW. THIS WILL SUPPORT LOCALIZED RAIN RATES 2-3 INCHES/HOUR...IN ADDITION TO AFOREMENTIONED SEVERE THREAT. CELL MERGERS WILL FURTHER ENHANCE HEAVY RAIN HAZARD. ..EDWARDS.. 06/22/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...FWD... 36919735 36059998 34979956 35809693 34989945 35189891 35499795 35659741 35589746 34159714 33619865 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 22 04:44:44 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 21 Jun 2004 23:44:44 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406220445.i5M4jq203572@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 220444 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220444 TXZ000-OKZ000-220615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1375 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1144 PM CDT MON JUN 21 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS W-CENTRAL AND N-CENTRAL TX...NW TX AND SRN TX PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 506... VALID 220444Z - 220615Z SEVERE POTENTIAL -- PRIMARILY IN FORM OF DAMAGING WIND -- MAY EXTEND SE OF WW 506 ACROSS PORTIONS W-CENTRAL AND NW TX AFTER 06Z...EVENTUALLY REACHING PORTIONS OF N-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL TX AS WELL. ANOTHER WW MAY BE REQUIRED WITHIN NEXT 2-3 HOURS. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS INTENSE AND EXPANSIVE COLD POOL ACROSS TX PANHANDLE...ALSO SURGING SWD ACROSS EXTREME ERN NM WITH 40 KT FLOW EVIDENT ABOVE SFC IN CVS AREA VWP. THIS AIR MASS IS CHARACTERIZED BY SFC TEMPS 50S TO LOW 60 S F...BROAD SWATH OF 4-9 MB /2 HOUR PRESSURE RISES...AND 35-60 KT GUSTS -- LOCALLY AUGMENTED BY OVERHEAD TSTMS BUT OFTEN REMOVED FROM IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF CONVECTION. CONVECTION NOW OVER SERN PANHANDLE MAY FORM PART OF EARLY STAGE PROGRESSIVE DERECHO EVENT THAT COULD AFFECT AREAS S AND SE OF WW 506 AFTER ABOUT 06Z. PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY ATTM IS HOW MUCH DETRIMENTAL INFLUENCE ON SEVERE POTENTIAL WOULD RESULT FROM STABILIZING PROCESSES RELATED TO LARGE AND GENERALLY NONSEVERE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX NOW LOCATED BETWEEN JCT-SEP-SJT. THAT EVENTUALLY MAY FAVOR CORRIDOR BETWEEN CDS-ABI-FTW -- NEAR AND JUST N OF AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM PREVIOUS DAY -- FOR PROPAGATION OF ANY DERECHO EVENT BECAUSE OF RELATIVELY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS REMAINING N OF I-20. RUC FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE 1500-2500 J/KG ELEVATED MUCAPE WILL REMAIN IN LATTER REGION THROUGH AT LEAST 08Z...SUPPORTING BOTH ONGOING AND ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THAT WOULD DRIVE COLD POOL FURTHER ALONG. ..EDWARDS.. 06/22/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...FWD...SJT...MAF... 36240010 36250050 35250178 34890274 33450189 33469861 33789875 33759821 33599766 33279732 32739730 32259768 31909848 31790047 31640092 32210241 33470262 34000224 33450187 33489865 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 22 09:09:03 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 22 Jun 2004 04:09:03 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406220909.i5M99W222121@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 220905 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220905 OKZ000-TXZ000-221130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1377 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0405 AM CDT TUE JUN 22 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...S CNTRL AND SE OK THROUGH PARTS OF N TX CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 220905Z - 221130Z HEAVY RAIN WITH RATES LOCALLY 1.5 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF S OK THROUGH N TX THROUGH 12Z. EARLY THIS MORNING A LINEAR MCS WITH TRAILING STRATIFORM REGION EXTENDS FROM NEAR MUSKOGEE IN ERN OK SWWD TO NEAR WICHITA FALLS IN NW TX. THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING SEWD AT 25 TO 30 KT. OTHER STORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER SRN THROUGH SE OK IN WHAT APPEARS TO BE A ZONE OF ASCENT RESULTING FROM THE SLY LOW LEVEL JET ENHANCING ISENTROPIC LIFT N OF AN E-W BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS ACROSS N TX. MERGERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEWD MOVING MCS AND THE ELEVATED CONVECTION DOWNSTREAM MAY CONTRIBUTE TO LOCALLY ENHANCED RAINFALL RATES NEXT FEW HOURS. ..DIAL.. 06/22/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... 34459477 33149798 33689879 35689512 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 22 15:28:09 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 22 Jun 2004 10:28:09 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406221528.i5MFSZ202665@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 221527 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221527 LAZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-221730- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1378 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1027 AM CDT TUE JUN 22 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX / SRN AR / MUCH OF LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 221527Z - 221730Z THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ACROSS THIS REGION SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE IN INTENSITY THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH ONLY A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS...THREAT MAY INCREASE TO THE DEGREE THAT WW MAY BE REQUIRED BY EARLY AFTERNOON. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES TWO MCSS WITH ASSOCIATED MCVS -- ONE ACROSS AR AND ONE MOVING ACROSS ERN TX ATTM. E OF THE TX SYSTEM AND S OF THE AR STORMS...AIRMASS REMAINS VERY MOIST WITH MID TO UPPER 70S DEWPOINTS INDICATED. THIS COMBINED WITH AROUND 7 C/KM 700 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES ACROSS THIS REGION PER MORNING RAOBS...DIURNAL HEATING WILL ALLOW AIRMASS TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE /2000 TO 3000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE EXPECTED/. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS RELATIVELY WEAK ACROSS THIS REGION WITH MID-LEVEL FLOW AOB 25 KT...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST PULSE / MULTICELL STORMS WITH OCCASIONAL STRONG GUSTS OR MARGINALLY-SEVERE HAIL. ADDITIONALLY -- GIVEN DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE / LOW LCLS ALONG WITH AROUND 15 KT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR INDICATED BY AREA VWPS / PROFILERS...A BRIEF / WEAK TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT WOULD OCCUR IF STORMS CAN BECOME ORGANIZED ON THE MESOSCALE ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AHEAD OF ERN TX MCV / COLD POOL. ..GOSS.. 06/22/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LZK...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP... 33349438 33969284 33489182 32759137 31189157 29619213 29789365 28509650 30459601 31749628 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 22 16:08:50 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 22 Jun 2004 11:08:50 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406221609.i5MG9J230792@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 221608 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221608 PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-221745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1379 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1108 AM CDT TUE JUN 22 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL MD / NRN AND WRN VA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 221608Z - 221745Z THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL MD SWD ACROSS NRN AND INTO WRN VA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. WW MAY BE REQUIRED. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ACROSS ERN OH / WRN PA / WV...BUT CLEARING IS EVIDENT IN LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS ACROSS THE DELMARVA REGION SWWD ACROSS VA. ALTHOUGH VEERED SWLY FLOW IS INDICATED ACROSS THIS REGION ATTM...MODELS SUGGEST THAT CONVERGENCE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS CONVERGENCE INCREASES / LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS -- WITH FRONT FORECAST TO EVENTUALLY MOVE / REDEVELOP E OF THE APPALACHIANS BY LATE AFTERNOON. MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS EXISTS ACROSS THIS REGION...WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 ACROSS MUCH OF THIS AREA. ALTHOUGH WEAK LAPSE RATES OVER THE AREA WILL LIMIT DESTABILIZATION TO SOME DEGREE...STRONG HEATING ACROSS THIS REGION COMBINED WITH DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW 1000 TO 2000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH STRONGEST MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD REMAIN N OF THIS REGION...MODERATELY STRONG / NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW DEVELOPING STORMS TO BECOME ORGANIZED / SEVERE. LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH SOME HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH STRONGER STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE GREATEST WIND THREAT LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH ANY SMALL-SCALE LINES / BOWS WHICH MAY DEVELOP. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS REGION REGARDING TIMING OF INITIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND ASSOCIATED POTENTIAL FOR WW ISSUANCE. ..GOSS.. 06/22/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK... 40327678 40227536 37087774 37128057 38027964 40047830 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 22 16:34:29 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 22 Jun 2004 11:34:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406221634.i5MGYw215493@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 221634 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221633 TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-221800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1380 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1133 AM CDT TUE JUN 22 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CNTRL TN INTO NRN MS/NRN AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 221633Z - 221800Z CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CROSSING THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MAY POSE ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUST/HAIL THREAT. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...HOWEVER A SEVERE WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. MODEST INSOLATION HAS ALLOWED SFC TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S IN WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF APPROACHING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL. WITH SFC DEWPOINTS AROUND 70...LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS SBCAPE AS HIGH AS 1000-1500 J/KG. REGIONAL VAD WIND PROFILES AND RUC DIAGNOSTICS PORTRAY ONLY MARGINAL WLY/UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES /20-30 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR/ DOWNSTREAM OF THIS COMPLEX. GIVEN SOMEWHAT MARGINAL INSTABILITY/AMBIENT WIND FIELDS AND LAPSE RATES...OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED. HOWEVER POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS /AND POSSIBLY MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/ MAY EXIST OWING TO PROPAGATIONAL COMPONENT OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEX COLD POOL AND/OR ANY ISOLD MULTICELLS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE LINE. ..GUYER.. 06/22/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN... 35958979 36238810 36038582 35138536 34668562 33988621 33498760 33488852 33478990 33839058 35229020 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 22 17:58:00 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 22 Jun 2004 12:58:00 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406221758.i5MHwV202928@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 221757 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221757 KYZ000-VAZ000-TNZ000-222000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1381 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1257 PM CDT TUE JUN 22 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...KY/NRN TN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 221757Z - 222000Z POTENTIAL MAY EXIST FOR ISOLD/MARGINAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/HAIL THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOST VIGOROUS TSTMS. SEVERE WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED. FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE TSTMS. LATEST RUC POINT SOUNDINGS/OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 500-750 J/KG...OWING TO UPPER 70S/UPPER 60S SFC TEMPS/DEWPOINTS RESPECTIVELY. WITH REGION ON SRN FRINGE OF STRONGER MID LEVEL WESTERLIES...SUFFICIENT BACKGROUND SHEAR /30-35 KTS/ WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR SOME ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS. MARGINAL NATURE OF LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO LARGELY MITIGATE ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...THUS WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ..GUYER.. 06/22/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...PAH... 37938588 38278410 38508326 38218280 37188250 36918340 36598450 36558561 36418663 36658748 36968767 37308753 37478716 37758633 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 22 19:27:34 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 22 Jun 2004 14:27:34 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406221928.i5MJS3200356@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 221926 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221926 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-222100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1382 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0226 PM CDT TUE JUN 22 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL/ERN ND...NERN SD AND WCENTRAL MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 221926Z - 222100Z THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A VORT MAX OVER CENTRAL ND WILL PROGRESS SEWD FROM SCENTRAL/SERN ND INTO FAR NERN SD AND WCENTRAL MN. ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. HOWEVER MARGINAL NATURE OF SEVERE THREAT SHOULD LIMIT THE NEED FOR WATCH. AXIS OF MID-UPPER 40S DEWPOINTS EXTEND FROM SCENTRAL ND INTO WCENTRAL MN. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT MARGINAL INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED IN THIS AXIS WITH MUCAPES FROM 500-1000 J/KG. RELATIVELY LOW WBZ HEIGHTS AROUND 7 KFT COMBINED WITH AROUND 7.5 C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 35-40 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL AID IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE HAIL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE CONVECTION MOVES EWD FROM SCENTRAL/SERN ND INTO FAR NERN SD AND WCENTRAL MN. LACK OF STRONGER INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT AND NEED FOR A WATCH. ..CROSBIE.. 06/22/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS... 45529837 45910033 46560081 47270097 47590049 47159765 46539539 45899523 45009567 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 22 20:13:33 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 22 Jun 2004 15:13:33 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406222014.i5MKE1228671@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 222011 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222010 LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-222145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1383 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0310 PM CDT TUE JUN 22 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX...LA AND FAR SRN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 508... VALID 222010Z - 222145Z GREATEST THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE OVER NERN PORTIONS OF WW 508 /OVER FAR ECENTRAL TX INTO NWRN LA/ WITH BOWING SEGMENT AS IT MOVES NEWD AROUND 35 KTS THROUGH INSTABILITY AXIS. SEVERE THREAT MAY PERSIST NEWD INTO PORTIONS OF NRN LA/SRN AR IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THUS A NEW MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS AREA. 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES AN INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDING ALONG THE SABINE RIVER NEWD INTO FAR SRN AR ON THE WRN/NRN PERIPHERY OF OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL/NRN LA...WITH LOWER 80S TEMPERATURES AND MID 70S DEWPTS CONTRIBUTING TO AROUND 2500 J/KG OF MUCAPE. CONVECTIVE LINE MOVING THROUGH ERN TX WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WW 508...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT OVER NWRN LA WHERE BOWING SEGMENT AND STRONGEST RISE/FALL COUPLET GRADIENT EXISTS. DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL BE MITIGATED FARTHER SOUTH BEYOND WW 508 EXPIRATION TIME /20Z/ AS CONVECTIVE LINE MOVES INTO CENTRAL LA DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF STABLE AIR ASSOCIATED WITH PREVIOUS CONVECTION. THERFORE...IF AN ADDITIONAL WW IF NEEDED WOULD ONLY BE FOR PORTIONS OF NRN LA/SRN AR WHERE INSTABILITY AXIS EXISTS WELL EAST OF CONVECTIVE LINE. ..CROSBIE.. 06/22/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV...HGX... 28979493 30219423 31249423 31679465 32239435 33039418 33349145 32439175 32149276 28849377 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 22 20:19:15 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 22 Jun 2004 15:19:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406222019.i5MKJj231749@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 222016 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222016 NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-222145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1384 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0316 PM CDT TUE JUN 22 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND NERN VA / ERN HALF OF MD / SERN PA / SRN NJ CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 509... VALID 222016Z - 222145Z STORMS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE IN INTENSITY ACROSS WW AREA. LATEST RADAR INDICATES BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF WW ATTM...WITHIN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY /1000 TO 2000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE/. ALTHOUGH SLOWLY INCREASING...STORMS HAVE REMAINED LARGELY SUB-SEVERE THUS FAR. GIVEN MODERATE DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD INDICATED ACROSS THIS REGION AND MOIST / UNSTABLE AIRMASS PRESENT...SEVERE THREAT PERSISTS AHEAD OF CONVECTIVE LINE. LIMITED STORM INTENSITY OBSERVED THUS FAR TODAY MAY BE PARTIALLY DUE TO WEAK SHORT-WAVE RIDGING / ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT INDICATED BY MODELS AND WV LOOP. HOWEVER...THE ETA INDICATES THAT WEAK MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS -- ASSOCIATED WITH SWRN QUEBEC TROUGH -- SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS COMBINED WITH PEAK HEATING MAY ALLOW SOME INCREASE IN UPDRAFT INTENSITY / SEVERE THREAT WITHIN WW AREA. ..GOSS.. 06/22/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK... 40307626 40467505 40127398 37337591 37067962 40387657  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 22 23:05:55 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 22 Jun 2004 18:05:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406222306.i5MN6W202327@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 222305 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222304 NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-230000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1385 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0604 PM CDT TUE JUN 22 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN NJ/DE/ERN MD/ERN-SERN VA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 509... VALID 222304Z - 230000Z WW 509 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 00Z. SEVERAL LINES OF STORMS EXTENDING ACROSS SWRN NJ TO ERN MD AND SERN VA ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING SEWD AT 20-25 KT...AND OFFSHORE BY 00-01Z. 40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR ORIENTED AT AN ANGLE TO THE ONGOING LINES OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT BOTH LINE SEGMENTS AND ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS CURRENTLY EAST OF LINE SEGMENTS WILL SUPPORT A SEVERE POTENTIAL DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. HOWEVER...GRADUAL DECREASE IN AVAILABLE INSTABILITY WITH LOSS OF DAY TIME HEATING SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE OF STRONGEST ACTIVITY. ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS/HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE INTENSE STORMS. ..PETERS.. 06/22/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX... 40067554 40167485 40077405 39337431 38777491 38097518 37367580 36987635 36597751 36777833 38347628 38777606 39617649 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 23 15:19:29 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 23 Jun 2004 10:19:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406231520.i5NFK0201571@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231518 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231517 MIZ000-MNZ000-WIZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-231715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1386 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1017 AM CDT WED JUN 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND / CENTRAL AND NRN MN / NWRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 231517Z - 231715Z THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE THREAT WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH THE MORNING / EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS AREA WILL BE UPGRADED TO SLIGHT RISK IN THE 1630Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK...AND WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD ACROSS ERN ND ATTM...WITH BROKEN CLOUD COVER INDICATED ACROSS ERN ND / NRN MN. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS NERN ND AND INTO FAR NWRN MN ATTM. VERY COLD /-20 TO -25C/ H5 TEMPERATURES ARE ANALYZED ACROSS THIS REGION THIS MORNING...WHICH COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND SOME NWD RETURN OF MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF SURFACE BOUNDARY SHOULD ALLOW 500 TO 1000 J/KG SURFACE-BASED CAPE TO DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONT AND ASSOCIATED / WELL-DEFINED VORT MAX MOVING SEWD OUT OF SRN MANITOBA. AS 50 TO 70 KT NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW -- ASSOCIATED WITH MANITOBA VORT MAX -- SPREADS SEWD ACROSS THIS REGION ABOVE SLY / SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF SURFACE FRONT...WIND FIELD WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS. GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY EXPECTED...STORMS SHOULD EVOLVE INTO LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS WITH TIME...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ADDITIONALLY...SOME TORNADO THREAT WILL LIKELY EXIST AS FAIRLY LOW LCLS AND SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL VEERING / SHEAR ARE ANTICIPATED. ..GOSS.. 06/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MQT...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS... 46928994 44839185 45769641 47279975 49019808 49019514 49359512 49299483 48799462 48609385 48629286 48209210 48049151 48189081 47998953 47578920  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 23 16:05:03 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 23 Jun 2004 11:05:03 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406231605.i5NG5V232705@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231604 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231603 ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-231730- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1387 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1103 AM CDT WED JUN 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LA / SERN MS / SRN AL / WRN FL PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 231603Z - 231730Z THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION EWD INTO SRN AL / WRN FL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. WW MAY BE REQUIRED. VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS EXISTS ACROSS THIS REGION WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S. WEAK / BROKEN LINE OF STORMS IS INDICATED FROM S CENTRAL MS SWD INTO SERN LA ALONG APPARENT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...WHERE 1000 TO 2000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE IS INDICATED. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...VISIBLE SATELLITE INDICATES SOME CLEARING AND THUS THE LIKELIHOOD FOR HEATING / FURTHER DESTABILIZATION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE / INTENSITY OF ONGOING CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD IS RELATIVELY WEAK ALONG THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST...MORNING RAOBS AND LATEST VWP DATA INDICATE MODERATE / GENERALLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW WHICH WOULD SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. WITH WBZ HEIGHTS FAIRLY HIGH...HAIL THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED. ALTHOUGH SOME LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND HIGH DEWPOINTS / LOW LCLS SUGGEST THAT A BRIEF / WEAK TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...MAIN THREAT WOULD LIKELY BE DAMAGING WINDS -- PARTICULARLY GIVEN ANY MESOSCALE ORGANIZATION OF STORMS ALONG EWD-MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. ..GOSS.. 06/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH... 32598907 33298681 33008580 31868565 30208593 30188868 29068912 29049089 29639206 30719023 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 23 16:24:43 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 23 Jun 2004 11:24:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406231625.i5NGP9212931@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231623 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231623 MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-231830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1388 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1123 AM CDT WED JUN 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN WI / FAR ERN IA / NRN IL / NWRN IN / WRN LOWER MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 231623Z - 231830Z THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP / INCREASE FROM ERN IA / SRN WI ENEWD INTO LOWER MI OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. WITH APPARENT THREAT FOR HAIL / DAMAGING WINDS...WW MAY BE REQUIRED. AIRMASS CONTINUES TO HEAT / DESTABILIZE ACROSS THIS REGION WHERE A CLEAR SKY AND LOW TO MID 50S DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH FAIRLY COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESULT IN 500 TO 1000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE BY MID-AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NRN UPPER MI SWWD TO ERN IA SHOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...AIDED BY WEAK MID-LEVEL FEATURE EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY MOVING EWD / ENEWD ACROSS IA IN BROAD BELT OF CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW. FAIRLY STRONG / GENERALLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW THROUGH A DEEP LAYER ACROSS THIS REGION IS SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED / LINEAR STORM MODE. HAIL ALONG WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY WITH TIME ACROSS THIS AREA...PARTICULARLY IF SMALL-SCALE LINES / BOWS ORGANIZE ALONG / AHEAD OF FRONT. ..GOSS.. 06/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX... 45848485 45088378 43778404 42308484 41008690 40659102 40889203 42839043 43018933 43658721 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 23 16:56:36 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 23 Jun 2004 11:56:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406231657.i5NGv2232578@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231656 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231655 NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-231900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1389 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1155 AM CDT WED JUN 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN VA/NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 231655Z - 231900Z LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM ORF/DAN/TRI/CSV...WHILE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES WIDESPREAD CLOUDS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL BAND AND/OR WARM CONVEYOR BELT CIRRUS. SFC BASED INSTABILITY IS GREATEST ACROSS SERN VA AND CNTR/ERN NC...WHERE DIURNAL HEATING IS ALLOWING FOR DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR. SFC BASED CUMULUS ARE BEGINNING TO FORM AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...HINTING THAT INHIBITION IS QUICKLY WEAKENING AND SBCAPE VALUES ARE RISING INTO THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE INCREASING TO AROUND 7.0 C/KM PER LATEST ANALYSIS DATA. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE AROUND 30-35 KT...WHICH IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STRONG STORMS TO FORM. VAD WIND DATA FROM ROANOKE SHOW ABOUT 35 KT DEEP LAYER MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR. THIS PROFILE ALONG WITH LINEAR FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL TEND TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED LINES/CLUSTERS OF STORMS...WITH THE MAIN THREAT FROM DAMAGING WINDS OR MARGINALLY LARGE HAIL. ..TAYLOR.. 06/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP... 37117603 37627830 36298090 35228133 34737975 33957839 34717682 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 23 17:18:05 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 23 Jun 2004 12:18:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406231718.i5NHIU213797@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231717 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231717 MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-231845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1390 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1217 PM CDT WED JUN 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SD / SWRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 231717Z - 231845Z THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING IN SERN ND ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF WW 510 ATTM. NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED ACROSS ERN SD / SWRN MN IN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. LATEST SURFACE / OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATE MOST SIGNIFICANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING / DESTABILIZATION OCCURRING ACROSS ERN SD AND INTO FAR WRN MN ATTM WHERE STRONG HEATING IS UNDERWAY. THIS APPEARS TO BE ALONG A WEAK WIND SHIFT / CONVERGENCE AXIS EXTENDING FROM SERN ND SSEWD INTO SWRN IA. WITH INCREASING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AND INSTABILITY INCREASINGLY SLOWLY...EXPECT STORMS OVER SERN ND TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS THEY MOVE SEWD ACROSS ERN SD / SWRN MN. ALTHOUGH A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE...GREATEST THREAT ACROSS THIS REGION REMAINS LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ..GOSS.. 06/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS... 46159547 46089476 45549379 43749355 43469668 43609759 44639849 45989882 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 23 18:25:34 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 23 Jun 2004 13:25:34 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406231825.i5NIPx224098@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231825 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231824 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-231930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1391 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0124 PM CDT WED JUN 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND / NWRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 510... VALID 231824Z - 231930Z SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS SRN / ERN PORTIONS OF WW. BROKEN LINE OF STRONG / OCCASIONALLY SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES MOVING RAPIDLY SEWD ACROSS SERN ND AND W CENTRAL MN ATTM...WITH NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING AHEAD OF LINE ACROSS EXTREME NERN SD AND FAR W CENTRAL MN. MOST UNSTABLE AIRMASS EXISTS ACROSS NERN SD AND ADJACENT WRN MN...SO EXPECT THIS CONVECTION TO BECOME STRONGER / POTENTIALLY SEVERE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS IT MOVES INTO WW 511. MEANWHILE...MORE ORGANIZED / BOWING STORM SEGMENT NOW MOVING SEWD TOWARD CENTRAL MN SHOULD ENCOUNTER SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE AIRMASS WITH TIME...SO EXPECT THAT SEVERE THREAT WITH THESE STORMS MAY SLOWLY DECREASE. WITH THESE STORMS FORECAST TO DECREASE AND STRONGER CONVECTION SHIFTING SEWD INTO SD / WW 511...WE MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL THIS WATCH IN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. ..GOSS.. 06/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS... 46369984 46869612 47459536 47399395 46229409 45759667 45889896 45960005 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 23 19:32:59 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 23 Jun 2004 14:32:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406231933.i5NJXO232578@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231931 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231931 MTZ000-WYZ000-IDZ000-232100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1392 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0231 PM CDT WED JUN 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CENTRAL MT / NWRN WY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 231931Z - 232100Z ISOLATED STRONG / SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP WITH A THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS / HAIL...HOWEVER WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE ACROSS WRN AND CENTRAL MT INTO ADJACENT NRN WY...WHERE STRONG HEATING COMBINED WITH MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S/ HAS RESULTED IN AROUND 500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE. DESPITE THE LACK OF AN APPARENT / SIGNIFICANT LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARY...WEAK NELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS INDICATED ACROSS THIS AREA. THIS MAY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT UPSLOPE-INDUCED UVV TO ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS AREA REMAINS ON SRN FRINGE OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW...WITH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED / SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...IN ADDITION TO THE LIMITED INSTABILITY...A LIMITING FACTOR MAY BE WEAK SHORT-WAVE RIDGING WHICH IS INDICATED BY WV IMAGERY ACROSS THIS REGION. THEREFORE...ATTM EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED STORMS AND THUS ONLY A LOCALIZED THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER. ..GOSS.. 06/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX...PIH...MSO...OTX... 49051074 48090842 47160810 46180577 45050736 43990843 44431178 46951349 49021686 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 23 19:37:43 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 23 Jun 2004 14:37:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406231938.i5NJcD203157@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231936 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231935 TXZ000-232130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1393 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0235 PM CDT WED JUN 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SE TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 231935Z - 232130Z BRIEF TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH CONVECTION ON THE SRN/ERN PERIPHERY OF MCV OVER SERN TX. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF TORNADOES WILL EXIST OVER WHARTON/MATAGORDA COUNTIES ENEWD INTO THE WRN/NRN PORTIONS OF THE HOU METRO AREA. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR A POSSIBLE WW. VWP DATA FROM HOU AND LATEST 18Z RUC DATA SUGGEST AXIS OF 10-15 KT 0-1 KM SHEAR EXISTS AHEAD OF AN MCV CENTERED 35 MILES NORTH OF VICTORIA. MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG ALONG WITH CONVECTION ORGANIZING ALONG THE ERN HALF OF THE MCV MOVING INTO THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR AXIS OVER THE AREA WILL SUPPORT THE CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED BRIEF/WEAK TORNADOES WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. THE THREAT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO AREAS FROM WHARTON/MATAGORDA COUNTIES ENEWD INTO THE WRN/NRN PORTIONS OF THE HOU METRO AREA OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS. UNCERTAINTY IN THE DURATION/MAGNITUDE OF THE THREAT...DUE TO WEAK MID LEVEL WINDS...WILL LIMIT A WW ISSUANCE AT THIS TIME. ..CROSBIE.. 06/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...HGX... 28769598 29239645 30279622 30899537 30469505 29269502 29089521 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 23 20:06:43 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 23 Jun 2004 15:06:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406232007.i5NK7A221245@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 232004 SWOMCD SPC MCD 232003 NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-232130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1394 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0303 PM CDT WED JUN 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN NC...FAR SERN VA AND FAR NRN SC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 510...512... VALID 232003Z - 232130Z CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ORGANIZING OVER WCENTRAL/NCENTRAL NC AND FAR SERN VA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ESE AROUND 20 KTS AND POSE A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS SOUTH OF WW 512. THUS A NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AROUND 21Z. A BRIEF TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT MOVE ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER. CONVECTION OVER WCENTRAL/SWRN NC WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL NC...AND ADDITIONAL STRONG-SEVERE STORMS OVER NCENTRAL NC WILL MOVE ESEWD AND OUT OF WW 512 BY 21Z. THEREFORE ANOTHER WW OVER ERN/SRN NC AND POSSIBLY FAR NERN SC WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AS MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG AND SUFFICIENTLY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL CO-EXIST AHEAD OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. ..CROSBIE.. 06/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP... 34878039 35498051 36308026 36647916 36867803 36937667 36527587 35147628 34507735 34347876 34638000 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 23 20:55:12 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 23 Jun 2004 15:55:12 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406232055.i5NKtb223822@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 232046 SWOMCD SPC MCD 232045 WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-232215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1395 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0345 PM CDT WED JUN 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...S CENTRAL AND SERN MN / NERN IA / CENTRAL AND SRN WI / POSSIBLY NRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 511... VALID 232045Z - 232215Z SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS SERN PORTIONS OF WW...AND APPEARS TO BE INCREASING SEWD ACROSS SERN MN / NERN IA INTO THE SRN HALF OF WI / NRN IL. NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED SE OF WW 511. LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS STRONGEST ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER VORT MAX IS NOW SHIFTING SEWD ACROSS ERN MN INTO WI / FAR NERN IA...WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION / DESTABILIZATION IS UNDERWAY. OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATE 500 TO 1000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE NOW IN PLACE ACROSS THIS REGION...WHICH SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE / INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. WITH AREA VWP / PROFILER DATA INDICATING STRONG / WEAKLY-VEERING DEEP-LAYER WINDS WITH HEIGHT -- SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE / SUPERCELL STORMS...THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS APPEARS TO BE INCREASING. ..GOSS.. 06/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD... 45439404 45169304 44569150 44099015 43918781 42288685 42229013 42829274 44039557  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 23 21:09:30 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 23 Jun 2004 16:09:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406232110.i5NLA0203185@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 232108 SWOMCD SPC MCD 232108 AZZ000-232315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1396 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0408 PM CDT WED JUN 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AZ CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 232108Z - 232315Z ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS AS THEY SLOWLY INTENSIFY OVER SCENTRAL/SERN AZ OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A LIMITED THREAT EXPECTED SHOULD PRECLUDE WW ISSUANCE. REMNANT MCV OVER FAR SERN AZ WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY NNWWD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS GIVEN RECENT MOTION ON WV IMAGERY. CONVECTION WAS INTENSIFYING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE TO THE SOUTH-SE OF THE TUS AREA. BOTH TUCSON AND PHOENIX VWP/S INDICATE AROUND 15-20 KTS OF ESELY MID LEVEL FLOW IN THE 2-4 KM LAYER. THIS WILL AID IN WSWWD PROPAGATION OF CONVECTION OUT OF THE WHITE MTNS INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS OF GRAHAM AND WRN PINAL COUNTIES WHERE IT WILL ENCOUNTER A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH MLCAPES AROUND 200-500 J/KG. AS THIS OCCURS...ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER SERN PORTIONS OF PIMA...SANTA CRUZ AND WRN COCHISE COUNTIES MAY BEGIN TO POSE A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AS THEY MOVE INTO INCREASING INSTABILITY/DEEPER MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL/WRN PIMA COUNTY WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ..CROSBIE.. 06/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR... 31821288 32471319 32891253 32911148 33361076 33550970 33020937 31340982 31341091 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 23 21:21:53 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 23 Jun 2004 16:21:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406232122.i5NLMI211229@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 232112 SWOMCD SPC MCD 232112 SCZ000-GAZ000-232245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1397 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0412 PM CDT WED JUN 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN GA AND FAR SRN SC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 232112Z - 232245Z ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH CONVECTIVE LINES AS THEY MOVE EWD ACROSS FAR SERN GA INTO FAR SRN SC. OVERALL THREAT WILL REMAIN LIMITED ENOUGH THAT A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE OVER SERN GA. AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM OF THIS CONVECTION REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPES FROM 3000-4000 J/KG ALONG WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. 25 KT DEEP LAYER UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW SAMPLED RECENTLY BY THE VWP AT VALDOSTA..ALONG WITH CONVECTIVE LINES PERPENDICULAR TO THE DEEP LAYER FLOW WILL FAVOR SOME POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. ADDITIONALLY... ISOLATED STORM MERGERS MAY AID IN SUFFICIENT UPDRAFT STRENGTH TO ALLOW FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AS WELL. ..CROSBIE.. 06/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC... 31028136 31478254 31988266 32718196 32438060  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 23 21:47:08 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 23 Jun 2004 16:47:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406232147.i5NLlX227079@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 232146 SWOMCD SPC MCD 232145 WYZ000-MTZ000-IDZ000-232345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1398 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0445 PM CDT WED JUN 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 232145Z - 232345Z ISOLATED HAIL AND MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WRN...CNTRL AND SRN MT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT IN PLACE FROM NCNTRL MT EXTENDING SEWD TO NEAR THE MT-SD STATE-LINE. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY (MLCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG) CURRENTLY EXISTS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWS THE STRONGEST MID-LEVEL FLOW EXISTS ALONG AND TO THE NW OF THE BOUNDARY WHERE THE 500 MB FLOW IS NORTHWESTERLY AT 40 TO 45 KT. THIS IS CREATING 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 40 TO 50 KT SUGGESTING THE STRONGER CELLS WILL BECOME SUPERCELLULAR. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 8.0 C/KM WITH 500 MB TEMPS OF -13 TO -15 C WILL FAVOR HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. THE CELLS WILL MOVE SEWD AND MAY ALSO HAVE A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT CONSIDERING SFC TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS EXCEED 30 DEGREES F. ..BROYLES.. 06/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW...TFX...MSO...OTX... 46180776 45580727 45060748 44540871 46671289 48571612 48891617 48941506 48951323 48651242 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 23 22:31:40 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 23 Jun 2004 17:31:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406232232.i5NMW4218497@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 232231 SWOMCD SPC MCD 232230 NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-240000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1399 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0530 PM CDT WED JUN 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN/SRN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 512...513... VALID 232230Z - 240000Z CONVECTION AND SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT OF WW 512 INTO WW 513 BY 00Z. THUS WW 512 SHOULD BE ABLE TO BE CANCELLED BEFORE EXPIRATION TIME. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SURGING OUT AHEAD OF CONVECTIVE LINE OVER CENTRAL NC. SWD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL NC BOUNDARY SHOULD UNDERCUT STORMS QUICKLY LIMITING THE DURATION OF ANY SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT AND IN THIS PART OF THE WATCH. ATTM...THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT OVER WW/S 512 AND 513 WILL EXIST WITH TWO AREAS OF ORGANIZED ACTIVITY. ONE OVER WRN/SWRN PORTIONS OF WW 513 WITH ACTIVITY MOVING OUT OF SWRN INTO SCENTRAL NC SUPPORTED BY 30-35 KT 2-3 KM WIND MAX. WITH THE OTHER AREA OVER ERN NC/FAR SERN PORTION OF WW 512 AND ERN PORTION OF WW 513...WHERE A STRENGTHENING COLD POOL/NUMEROUS CELL MERGERS SHOULD AID IN SUSTAINING A DAMAGING WIND THREAT FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ..CROSBIE.. 06/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CAE... 34478011 35508001 35907747 36847628 36417555 35127557 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 23 23:35:30 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 23 Jun 2004 18:35:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406232335.i5NNZr219411@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 232335 SWOMCD SPC MCD 232334 WIZ000-MNZ000-240130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1400 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0634 PM CDT WED JUN 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SCNTRL WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 514... VALID 232334Z - 240130Z WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE WILL BE LIKELY AS A BOW ECHO RACES SEWD AT 50 KT ACROSS SCNTRL WI. A NEW WW IS BEING ISSUED. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SFC LOW ACROSS NW WI WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SEWD ACROSS SCNTRL WI INTO THE CHICAGO AREA. A BOW ECHO IS CURRENTLY NEAR THE SFC LOW AND SHOULD TRACK SEWD ALONG THE WARM FRONT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER 60S F ACROSS SERN WI AND THE BOW ECHO SHOULD CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE AS IT MOVES INTO INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. THE LINE IS JUST AHEAD OF A 80 KT MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX. AS THIS FEATURE PUNCHES SEWD...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL INCREASE. IN ADDITION...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS INCREASING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHICH WILL ALSO AID INTENSIFICATION OF THE LINE. AS A RESULT...WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE IN A NARROW CORRIDOR FROM NW TO SE APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS SCNTRL WI. ..BROYLES.. 06/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX... 43659127 44169131 44659073 44348826 44098761 43558776 43148792 43248914 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 24 00:09:29 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 23 Jun 2004 19:09:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406240009.i5O09r202629@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 240009 SWOMCD SPC MCD 240008 SCZ000-GAZ000-240215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1401 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0708 PM CDT WED JUN 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/SRN SC CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 240008Z - 240215Z BOW ECHO THAT HAS ORGANIZED OVER FAR ECENTRAL GA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EWD AROUND 40 KTS INTO THE PIEDMONT OF SC OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS. DIURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION WILL AID IN A DECREASED SEVERE THREAT AHEAD OF THIS LINE BY 02Z. LATEST VWP FROM CHARLESTON AND MACON GA...INDICATES AROUND 35 TO 40 KTS OF SWLY LOW-MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS WHICH WILL CONTINUE SUPPORT FAST EWD MOVEMENT OF TWO CONVECTIVE LINES AS THEY MOVE THROUGH WRN/SRN SC OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS. BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION WILL AID IN A WEAKENING OF THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT TO THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS OVER WRN/SRN SC...AND THUS A WW IS NOT WARRANTED. ..CROSBIE.. 06/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP... 32348054 33168174 34078267 34328157 33417955 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 24 03:11:47 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 23 Jun 2004 22:11:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406240313.i5O3Cx221687@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 240311 SWOMCD SPC MCD 240310 MIZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-240445- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1402 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1010 PM CDT WED JUN 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN WI...LOWER MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 515...516... VALID 240310Z - 240445Z A WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL THREAT WILL EXIST WITH A LINE OF STORMS ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN INTO SRN LOWER MI. WW 515 WILL BE REPLACED WITH A NEW WW. A CLUSTER OF TORNADIC SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES IS BEGINNING TO MOVE OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. THE AIR OVER LAKE MICHIGAN IS MUCH MORE STABLE THAN THE LAND AREAS TO THE WEST. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A TEMPORARY LULL IN THE INTENSITY OF THE CLUSTER. ACROSS LOWER MI...OUTFLOW FROM THIS AFTERNOON'S STORMS CAUSED SOME STABILIZATION. HOWEVER...ENOUGH INSTABILITY IS STILL IN PLACE WITH UPPER 50S F SFC DEWPOINTS PRESENT. IN ADDITION...AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX OF 85 KT IS RESULTING IN ABOUT 65 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. EVEN THOUGH INSTABILITY IS WEAK...THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR COMBINED WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET OF 35 KT PUNCHING IN FROM THE WEST...WILL RESULT IN A WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES. ..BROYLES.. 06/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...GRB...LOT...MKX... 42668839 43668809 44468689 43318274 42438296 41748411 42418791 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 24 06:37:39 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 24 Jun 2004 01:37:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406240638.i5O6c2212558@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 240637 SWOMCD SPC MCD 240637 MIZ000-INZ000-240730- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1403 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0137 AM CDT THU JUN 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AND SRN LOWER MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 517... VALID 240637Z - 240730Z THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY PERSIST ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO. HOWEVER...TREND HAS BEEN FOR THREAT TO BECOME INCREASINGLY MARGINAL. EARLY THIS MORNING A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS FROM ERN LOWER MI SWWD INTO SWRN LOWER MI. THIS LINE IS MOVING EAST AT 40 TO 45 KT AND IS BEING SUSTAINED BY STRONG FORCING FOR DEEP LAYER ASCENT IN EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET. RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT STRONG WIND GUSTS...THOUGH SUB SEVERE...ARE STILL REACHING THE SURFACE. OTHER MORE CELLULAR...ELEVATED STORMS ARE DEVELOPING JUST EAST OF THE LINE IN WHAT APPEARS TO BE A ZONE OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. NOCTURNAL COOLING HAS STABILIZED THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...PRESENCE OF 50 KT SWLY FLOW IN THE .5-1 KM LAYER AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL MAY STILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH THE STRONGER CONVECTION. ..DIAL.. 06/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...GRR... 42158628 42738463 44088326 43728234 42078272 41738599 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 24 16:27:02 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 24 Jun 2004 11:27:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406241627.i5OGRO231632@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 241625 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241625 MSZ000-LAZ000-241800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1404 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1125 AM CDT THU JUN 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LA / SWRN MS... CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 241625Z - 241800Z THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. WW MAY BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO FOR THIS REGION AS STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS OR AN ISOLATED TORNADO. VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS /DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S/ ARE INDICATED ACROSS SRN LA ATTM...WHERE 1000 TO 2000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE IS INDICATED DESPITE WEAK LAPSE RATES. BROKEN CLOUD COVER IS INDICATED BY VISIBLE IMAGERY ACROSS MUCH OF SRN LA AND INTO SRN MS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW ADDITIONAL AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR. ERN PORTIONS OF LARGE CLUSTER OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE WRN GULF CONTINUES TO EXPAND NWD INTO SWRN LA ATTM...WHERE 50 TO 60 MPH WINDS HAVE BEEN REPORTED OFFSHORE. ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS LIMITED...ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD SUGGESTS A LIMITED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS. DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND LOW LCLS WOULD ALSO SEEM TO SUPPORT A LOW-END TORNADO THREAT. WITH A WEAK CIRCULATION CENTER EVIDENT IN RADAR REFLECTIVITY LOOP MOVING ENEWD ACROSS THE UPPER TX COAST APPROACHING THE SABINE RIVER...SOME MESOSCALE LINEAR ORGANIZATION WILL LIKELY BE MAINTAINED WITHIN CONVECTIVE SYSTEM AS STORMS MOVE NEWD ACROSS SRN LA TOWARD SWRN MS. THEREFORE...RESULTING SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY REQUIRE WW ISSUANCE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. ..GOSS.. 06/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH... 30149305 30479259 31089235 31559114 31748950 31298910 29098897 29089080 29559163 29569266 29719303 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 24 18:21:15 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 24 Jun 2004 13:21:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406241821.i5OILa206356@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 241820 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241820 NYZ000-241945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1405 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0120 PM CDT THU JUN 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 241820Z - 241945Z ALTHOUGH EXACT TIMING REMAINS A QUESTION...SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS WRN NY. WE ARE MONITORING ONTARIO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...WHICH WILL LIKELY REQUIRE WW ISSUANCE INTO WRN NY BY 24/20Z. PRE-FRONTAL AIRMASS ACROSS WRN OH / THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOISTEN / DESTABILIZE...WITH MID TO UPPER 50S DEWPOINTS NOW INDICATED ACROSS ALL BUT NRN NY. STRONG HEATING CONTINUES ACROSS THIS REGION WHERE LITTLE CLOUD COVER EXISTS -- WHICH WILL SUPPORT FURTHER DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TCU / CB DEVELOPMENT IS NOTED ACROSS SERN ONTARIO FROM PETERBOROUGH / TORONTO ALONG THE NRN LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE NEWD ALONG FRONT...WHICH SHOULD INTENSIFY / MOVE EWD INTO NRN NY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH WEAKER / CU-TYPE CONVECTION IS INDICATED ALONG FRONT FROM WRN LK ONTARIO WSWWD ALONG THE NRN LK ERIE SHORELINE...THIS TOO SHOULD INCREASE AND MOVE EWD INTO WRN NY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED /500 TO 1000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE AT BEST/...STRONG / WEAKLY-VEERING DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD IS PROVIDING A VERY FAVORABLY-SHEARED ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE STORMS / SUPERCELLS. STORM MODE -- PRIMARILY LINEAR VS. PRIMARILY SUPERCELLULAR OR SOME COMBINATION OF THE TWO -- IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE. ATTM...SOME COMBINATION OF THE TWO APPEARS PROBABLE -- WITH INITIAL ACTIVITY PERHAPS MORE CELLULAR BUT LONG TERM EVOLUTION PERHAPS TRENDING TOWARD LINEAR. IN ADDITION TO HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR LIKELY ALONG WITH SOME TORNADO THREAT -- PARTICULARLY WITH ANY MORE CELLULAR CONVECTION WHICH MAY DEVELOP. ..GOSS.. 06/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF... 44947424 44517432 43487483 42597794 42547919 42797891 43327905 43517904 43637717 44147639 44447578 44827533 45017483 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 24 18:46:43 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 24 Jun 2004 13:46:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406241847.i5OIl7225051@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 241846 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241846 KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-242045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1406 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0146 PM CDT THU JUN 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN INTO WRN KS/FAR SERN CO AND THE OK PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 241846Z - 242045Z ISOLATED SVR STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ALONG SWD MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM NCENTRAL/NERN KS INTO SWRN KS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STORMS MAY BECOME UNDERCUT WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF INITIATION LIMITING THE OVERALL ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT. BUT IF A GREATER CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION CAN OCCUR...THEN A WW MAY BE REQUIRED LATER THIS AFTERNOON. INCIPIENT STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER WRN KS APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN UNDERCUT BY FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES SWD AROUND 20-25 KTS PER RADAR IMAGERY. GIVEN SLOW SEWD STORM MOTIONS OF AROUND 10 KTS PER REGIONAL PROFILERS/VWPS WITH RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW ALOFT...THIS TREND IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE. THAT IS UNLESS NUMEROUS STORMS CAN DEVELOP...FORM COLD POOL AND PROPAGATE FASTER THAN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO FAR SERN CO/THE OK PANHANDLE. FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE BOUNDARY ACROSS NCENTRAL/NERN KS...A MID LEVEL SPEED MAX/THERMAL TROUGH SAMPLED BY THE 18Z MCCOOK PROFILER...THE 12Z LBF SOUNDING AND ACCAS OVER NWRN KS...SHOULD AID IN DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED T-STORMS WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. MLCAPE VALUES FROM 1000-1500 J/KG...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND OVERALL MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL FAVOR DAMAGING WINDS AS THE PRIMARY THREAT OVER THIS AREA AS WELL. HOWEVER...SWD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE SLOWER THAN AREAS FARTHER WEST AND MAY SUPPORT SOME THREAT FOR ISOLATED SVR STORMS TO ORGANIZE. ..CROSBIE.. 06/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB... 36470246 37890256 38830189 39400001 39559746 39629591 39169544 38549552 38299623 37749833 37299939 36570032 36500104 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 24 19:13:26 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 24 Jun 2004 14:13:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406241913.i5OJDl208998@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 241911 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241911 PAZ000-NYZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-242045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1407 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0211 PM CDT THU JUN 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL IND / W CENTRAL INTO NRN OH / NRN PA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 241911Z - 242045Z THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS FROM WRN IND NEWD INTO NWRN OH...AND PERHAPS AS FAR NE AS NRN PA. WE ARE MONITORING THIS REGION FOR WW ISSUANCE. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES TOWERING CU NOW GROWING ACROSS CENTRAL IND AND NWRN OH ALONG AND NEAR COLD FRONT. WITH LOW TO MID 60S DEWPOINTS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION S OF FRONT...AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE -- WITH MEAN-LAYER CAPE NOW APPROACHING 500 J/KG. ADDITIONAL DAYTIME HEATING / DESTABILIZATION SHOULD ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP / INTENSIFY AND MOVE EWD ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON / EARLY EVENING. ALTHOUGH A LARGE COMPONENT OF THE MEAN WIND VECTOR IS ALIGNED ALONG THE FRONT WHICH MAY LIMIT THE DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL...WIND FIELD NONETHELESS REMAINS STRONG / SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS ACROSS THIS REGION. ALONG WITH SOME THREAT FOR HAIL...GREATEST THREAT APPEARS TO BE DAMAGING WINDS -- PARTICULARLY IF A FEW STORM CLUSTERS CAN GENERATE ORGANIZED COLD POOLS. SUBSEQUENT STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG MORE N-S OUTFLOW SEGMENTS WOULD BE MORE LIKELY TO PRODUCE WIND DAMAGE ACROSS THIS AREA. ..GOSS.. 06/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND... 40368719 39688659 39968305 41247976 42477908 42677932 41848183 40918533 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 24 19:29:41 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 24 Jun 2004 14:29:41 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406241930.i5OJU2219378@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 241928 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241927 SCZ000-GAZ000-242130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1408 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0227 PM CDT THU JUN 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN GA AND SRN SC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 241927Z - 242130Z LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL GA SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EWD AND MAY GROW IN AREAL COVERAGE AS THEY MOVE INTO ERN GA AND SRN SC OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION DOWNSTREAM OF CONVECTIVE LINE ALONG WITH SUPPORT BY A MID LEVEL SPEED MAX MAY AID IN AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES LOW 70S TEMPERATURES IN THE COLD POOL BEHIND A CONVECTIVE LINE AS IT MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL GA. SUSTAINED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE AND AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM OF THIS LINE WITH MLCAPES FROM 1500-2000 J/KG AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD FAVOR CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION. ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A VORT MAX OVER NRN AL...A LOW-MID LEVEL 30-35 KT WIND MAX SAMPLED BY REGIONAL VWP/S MAY SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE AS IT MOVES INTO SWRN SC. ..CROSBIE.. 06/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC... 32128389 32538401 32818397 33288308 33738143 33668090 32758061 31888106 31828267 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 24 20:07:52 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 24 Jun 2004 15:07:52 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406242008.i5OK8D209462@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 242005 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242004 WYZ000-MTZ000-UTZ000-IDZ000-242130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1409 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0304 PM CDT THU JUN 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ID...FAR SWRN MT AND WRN/CENTRAL WY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 242004Z - 242130Z ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE UPPER SNAKE RIVER VALLEY SEWD INTO THE WRN/CENTRAL WY. OVERALL THREAT APPEARS TO BE MARGINAL ENOUGH THAT A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SEWD ACROSS SWRN MT/NERN ID. CONVECTION THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE BITTEROOT MTNS OF ERN ID AND SWRN MT AND OVER THE WIND RIVER MTNS OF WRN WY WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY WITH FURTHER DESTABILIZATION EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY. BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW BENEATH MODEST 25-40 KT MID LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR THE THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. ADDITIONALLY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL FAVOR SOME SVR WIND THREAT WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. OVERALL INSTABILITY REMAINS MARGINAL...WITH MLCAPES FROM 500-1000 J/KG. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE DEGREE AND LONGEVITY OF INDIVIDUAL STORMS. THUS A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ..CROSBIE.. 06/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CYS...BYZ...RIW...TFX...SLC...PIH...MSO... 41030815 41391070 43431314 44101319 44591256 45081122 44830963 42160686 41290637  From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 24 20:36:42 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 24 Jun 2004 15:36:42 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406242037.i5OKb4228472@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 242034 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242033 FLZ000-242130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1410 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0333 PM CDT THU JUN 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SCENTRAL/CENTRAL FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 242033Z - 242130Z ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS/LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGEST STORMS DEVELOPING ON THE SEA BREEZE FRONT OVER SWRN INTO WCENTRAL FL. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE LACK OF A BETTER ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT. LATEST RAD/SAT IMAGERY INDICATES INTENSIFYING CONVECTION ALONG THE SEA BREEZE FRONT OVER SWRN FL...JUST SOUTH OF THE TAMPA BAY AREA. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.0 C/KM NOTED ON THE 12Z MIAMI AND 16Z CAPE CANAVERAL SOUNDINGS AND MLCAPE VALUES FROM 2500-3500 J/KG WILL SUPPORT VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF WET MICROBURSTS AND/OR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. INTERACTIONS BETWEEN OUTFLOW FROM SEA BREEZE CONVECTION AND OTHER BOUNDARIES /INCLUDING THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FRONT/ OVER SCENTRAL FL MAY SUPPORT ADDITIONAL THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE AREA. ..CROSBIE.. 06/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW... 26278175 27148230 27918268 28468215 28358165 27688108 26678074 26148118 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 24 21:08:58 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 24 Jun 2004 16:08:58 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406242109.i5OL9L216786@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 242100 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242059 MSZ000-LAZ000-242300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1411 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0359 PM CDT THU JUN 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LA AND SRN MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 518... VALID 242059Z - 242300Z INCREASING FORWARD MOTION ON THE MAIN CONVECTIVE LINE DUE TO THE STRENGTHENING OF THE COLD POOL OVER SCENTRAL LA WILL FAVOR THE POTENTIAL FOR AN INCREASE IN THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS THE LINE MOVES INTO THE INSTABILITY AXIS OVER SERN LA OVER THE NEXT HOUR. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LINE AS WELL. LOW LEVEL SHEAR REMAINS SUFFICIENT FOR A BRIEF TORNADO THREAT ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM 20 N OF MSY EWD TO 10 N OF GPT. OTHERWISE...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL RATES OVER 1 INCH/HR WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG NRN PORTIONS OF WW 518 /SWRN AND SCENTRAL MS/...WHERE TRAINING OF WARM ADVECTION STORMS IS LIKELY. HOWEVER...THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE MARGINAL IN THIS AREA. ..CROSBIE.. 06/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH... 29479125 30139110 31389118 31778852 29918855  From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 24 23:42:16 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 24 Jun 2004 18:42:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406242342.i5ONga205578@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 242342 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242341 OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-250115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1412 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0641 PM CDT THU JUN 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK PANHANDLE/FAR NWRN OK AND THE NERN TX PANHANDLE CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 242341Z - 250115Z CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER SWRN KS TO THE SOUTH OF DDC APPEARS TO BE ORGANIZING A COLD POOL AND CELL MERGERS WILL LIKELY ENHANCE A LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND THREAT SWD INTO THE ERN OK PANHANDLE...FAR NWRN OK AND THE NERN TX PANHANDLE. AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH AROUND 1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE EXTENDS FROM THE ERN TX PANHANDLE/WRN OK INTO THE ERN OK PANHANDLE. SO FAR STORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE SWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT MOVING AT ABOUT 25 MPH HAVE BEEN UNDERCUT BY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH HAS LIMITED THE SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW/BACKED SURFACE WINDS EVIDENT ON RECENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INTO THE FRONT WAS INCREASING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR CONVECTION TO REMAIN MORE TIED TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS IT MOVES SWD. ADDITIONALLY...CELL MERGERS IN PROGRESS OVER SWRN KS WILL LIKELY AID IN A DEEPENING OF THE COLD POOL AND FURTHER SUPPORT A LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER INTO THE NERN TX PANHANDLE/NWRN OK. ..CROSBIE.. 06/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...AMA... 36070122 36580108 37360053 37789934 37469897 37029878 36459894 35919964 35550060 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 24 23:45:32 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 24 Jun 2004 18:45:32 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406242345.i5ONjw207152@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 242345 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242344 PAZ000-NYZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-250145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1413 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0644 PM CDT THU JUN 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME WRN NY STATE..WRN AND CENTRAL PA...E CENTRAL OH AND THE NRN WV PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 519... VALID 242344Z - 250145Z SQUALL LINE CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EWD ACROSS NERN OH AT 30-40 KT. WE ARE MONITORING THIS AREA FOR AN ADDITIONAL WW WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. SQUALL LINE HAS A HISTORY OF DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL AS IT MOVED ACROSS NERN AND N CENTRAL OH. MLCAPE VALUES ARE RUNNING BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG AHEAD OF THE LINE. MAIN ADVANCEMENT OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT IS EWD ACROSS NERN OH INTO NWRN PA AND WRN NY WHICH WOULD PLACE THE LEADING ACTIVITY INTO THIS AREA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. SURFACE TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S..AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOW 60S AHEAD OF THE FRONT CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE TO SUPPORT STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL DECREASE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY...BUT WITH ADVANCING COLD FRONT...DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN A CONCERN ACROSS THIS REGION. ..MCCARTHY.. 06/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE... 39988140 40258110 40938060 41848025 42327930 41997810 41047794 40317894 39898004 39848111 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 25 00:06:19 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 24 Jun 2004 19:06:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406250006.i5P06i217739@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 250006 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250005 MOZ000-KSZ000-250130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1414 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0705 PM CDT THU JUN 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NCENTRAL/NERN KS AND NRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 250005Z - 250130Z ELEVATED STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG 850-700 MB FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AS THEY MOVE ESEWD AROUND 30 KTS. LACK OF GREATER INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW. RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION TO UPPER JET ALONG WITH SUFFICIENTLY DEEP CONVERGENCE IN THE ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING EWD FROM NCENTRAL INTO NRN MO WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CURRENT FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG OF MUCAPE EXIST OVER THE AREA. 25-30 KTS OF CLOUD LAYER SHEAR PER REGIONAL PROFILER DATA AND 7.5 TO 8.0 C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME STORM ROTATION WITH AN ATTENDANT MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL THREAT INTO THE MID EVENING HOURS. ..CROSBIE.. 06/25/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...EAX...TOP...ICT...GID... 39919761 39409933 38959866 38969757 38989659 38919545 38919394 38899236 39299146 39919154 40139209 39939585 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 25 00:32:02 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 24 Jun 2004 19:32:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406250032.i5P0WM230050@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 250031 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250031 ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-250100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1415 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0731 PM CDT THU JUN 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN LA AND SRN MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 518... VALID 250031Z - 250100Z ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY PERSIST FOR ANOTHER HOUR BEYOND WW 518 EXPIRATION TIME /01Z/ BUT LACK OF LONGER TERM THREAT WILL PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR ANOTHER WATCH. LINE OF STORMS MOVING EWD 25-30 KTS ACROSS FAR SERN LA/SRN MS HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF WEAKENING IN THE LAST HALF AN HOUR AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE. CURRENT LINE MOTION TAKES THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS LINE INTO FAR SWRN AL BY AROUND 02Z. AS THE LINE MOVES TOWARDS THE FAR ERN PORTIONS OF WW 518 BETWEEN 01-02Z...DECREASING INSTABILITY AND WEAKENING LAPSE RATES IN THE LOW LEVELS SHOULD PRECLUDE A LONGER DURATION SEVERE THREAT SUFFICIENT FOR ANOTHER WATCH. ..CROSBIE.. 06/25/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX... 29768954 30778954 31688930 31798857 30788824 29968826 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 25 02:30:15 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 24 Jun 2004 21:30:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406250230.i5P2UZ220013@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 250228 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250228 PAZ000-NYZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-250430- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1416 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0928 PM CDT THU JUN 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND SWRN PA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 520... VALID 250228Z - 250430Z STORMS HAVE BEEN DECREASING IN INTENSITY THE PAST FEW HOURS AS MLCAPE HAS BECOME LESS AVAILABLE DUE TO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. STRONGEST ACTIVITY IS MOVING THROUGH JEFFERSON COUNTY AT 35-40 KT. THERE MAY CONTINUE TO AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS. THERE ARE ALSO SOME STRONG STORMS MOVING THROUGH GUERNSEY AND HARRISON COUNTIES IN OH APPROACHING THE HLG AREA. IF THE GENERAL TREND CONTINUES DURING THE NEXT HOUR...WW MAY BE CANCELLED BY 0400Z. ..MCCARTHY.. 06/25/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE... 40728061 41698064 42047741 40377694 39938058 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 25 16:35:36 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 25 Jun 2004 11:35:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406251635.i5PGZsg31444@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 251635 SWOMCD SPC MCD 251634 VAZ000-MDZ000-NCZ000-251830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1417 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1134 AM CDT FRI JUN 25 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SE VA...NE NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 251634Z - 251830Z CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING CLOSELY MONITORED FOR INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND POSSIBILITY OF WW. THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY TO THE SOUTHWEST OF RICHMOND VA. THIS APPEARS TO BE IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK PERTURBATION EMBEDDED WITHIN SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES...AND SMALL CONVECTIVE CLUSTER MAY SLOWLY EVOLVE SOUTH OF RICHMOND INTO THE NORFOLK VA AREAS THROUGH THE 20-21Z TIME FRAME. WITH STRONGER SUBTROPICAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH STILL UPSTREAM... LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAS YET TO STRENGTHEN...BUT IS PROGGED TO DO SO LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...WEAK VEERING WIND PROFILES WITH HEIGHT BENEATH MODERATELY STRONG WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA IS ALREADY SUPPORTIVE OF UPDRAFT ROTATION. CONVECTION IS BECOMING ROOTED IN VERY MOIST TROPICAL BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS WITH LOWER/MID 70S DEW POINTS... CONTRIBUTING TO RISK FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES...WHICH SHOULD PERSIST WITH ISOLATED CELLS AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LOWER/MID-LEVELS MAY REMAIN UNSATURATED ENOUGH TO ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR SUBSTANTIAL COLD POOL AS CONVECTIVE CLUSTER SLOWLY ORGANIZES THIS AFTERNOON. IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS...THIS MAY SUPPORT SLIGHTLY MORE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND THREAT ALONG GUST FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA/PARTS OF NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA BY LATE AFTERNOON. ..KERR.. 06/25/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH... 36307581 35847644 35937726 36187778 36207833 36727833 37137766 37537723 37917691 37997593 37847548 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 25 17:09:04 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 25 Jun 2004 12:09:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406251709.i5PH9Mg15530@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 251708 SWOMCD SPC MCD 251708 NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-251915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1418 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1208 PM CDT FRI JUN 25 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN PA/CNTRL AND SRN NJ/MD/DE/AND NRN VA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 251708Z - 251915Z CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING SEVERE THREAT. WW COULD BECOME NECESSARY WITHIN NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. DAYTIME HEATING IS CONTRIBUTING TO DESTABILIZATION ALONG SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL NEW JERSEY INTO THE VICINITY OF THE PENNSYLVANIA/MARYLAND BORDER... AS WELL AS NEAR LEE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN MARYLAND AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA. LATEST OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE INDICATES MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE IS NOW IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG...AND INHIBITION HAS BECOME QUITE WEAK. MODELS SUGGEST DIFLUENT UPPER FLOW REGIME BETWEEN POLAR/SUBTROPICAL JETS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AS MAIN UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. CONVECTIVE INITIATION APPEARS POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND IN VICINITY OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES BY THE 19-20Z...AND SHOULD GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATE INTO LARGER CONVECTIVE CLUSTER LATER THIS EVENING AS UPPER FORCING INCREASES. THOUGH LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK...MODERATE TO STRONG MID/UPPER FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES FOR MID-LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION IN INITIAL ACTIVITY. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ALREADY APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE HAIL/ISOLATED DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS...BEFORE BROADER SWATH OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS BECOMES POSSIBLE WITH EVOLUTION OF CONVECTIVE CLUSTER. ..KERR.. 06/25/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...PBZ... 39657911 39847794 40047682 40237592 40667526 40597444 40067437 39587482 39207529 38577542 38247589 38127658 38417744 38887781 38977833 39187894 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 25 20:17:30 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 25 Jun 2004 15:17:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406252017.i5PKHqg01556@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 252014 SWOMCD SPC MCD 252014 NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-252215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1419 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0314 PM CDT FRI JUN 25 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN VA/MD/DE/SE PA/NJ/SE NY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 521... VALID 252014Z - 252215Z CONTINUE WW. INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING ALONG FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW YORK STATE THROUGH NORTHERN NEW JERSEY INTO SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MARGINAL HAIL THREAT IN STRONGEST CELLS NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...MOST EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING IN LEE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE WASHINGTON D.C./BALTIMORE AREAS...AND EVOLUTION OF MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTER APPEARS LIKELY NEAR/NORTHWEST OF BALTIMORE WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRENGTHENING SURFACE COLD POOL...WHICH COULD POSE INCREASING RISK OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS 40 TO 50 KT WEST SOUTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW AIDS PROPAGATION TOWARD THE PHILADELPHIA AREA THROUGH 26/00Z. ..KERR.. 06/25/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...CTP...LWX... 39167760 39687742 40227700 40457614 40307482 39527514 38787674 38907711 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 25 20:46:46 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 25 Jun 2004 15:46:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406252047.i5PKl2g13696@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 252044 SWOMCD SPC MCD 252043 NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-252245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1420 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0343 PM CDT FRI JUN 25 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL SC INTO CNTRL NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 252043Z - 252245Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND POSSIBILITY OF WW. AXIS OF STRONGER 2 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS /2-3 MB/ HAS DEVELOPED IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS... ROUGHLY WEST SOUTHWEST OF COLUMBIA INTO AREAS NORTHEAST OF FAYETTEVILLE. THIS APPEARS TO BE IN CONJUNCTION WITH MORE PROMINENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH GRADUALLY LIFTING AROUND SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON. SHEAR AXIS EXTENDS WEST SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF STATES...WITH INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ONGOING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. LEADING EDGE OF ACTIVITY IS SPREADING ACROSS EASTERN GEORGIA. THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEST OF AUGUSTA APPEAR TO BE NEAR LOW-LEVEL JET CORE...WHICH IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE SHIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS THROUGH THE 26/02-03Z TIME FRAME. LOW-LEVEL JET ON THE ORDER OF 20-25 KT IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...BUT WILL ENHANCE PROPAGATION OF CONVECTION THROUGH VERY WARM AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 90F AND MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG. THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER DOWNBURSTS...BUT SOMEWHAT BROADER SWATH OF CONVECTION APPROACHING SEVERE LIMITS APPEARS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COLUMBA SC AREA BY AROUND 26/00Z...POSSIBLY INTO AREAS SOUTH OF FAYETTEVILLE BY 26/02Z. ..KERR.. 06/25/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...FFC... 33648238 34318151 34788016 35367908 34617869 33917962 33418069 32588243 33288225 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 25 21:51:57 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 25 Jun 2004 16:51:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406252152.i5PLqEg08558@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 252151 SWOMCD SPC MCD 252151 FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-252315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1421 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0451 PM CDT FRI JUN 25 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MS...SRN AL...FL PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 252151Z - 252315Z ...DAMAGING WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY SQUALL LINE AS IT PROPAGATES EWD ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE ISSUED.. AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES HAS GENERATED A COLD POOL WHICH IN TURN APPEARS PARTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR RECENT EWD SURGE TO SQUALL LINE ACROSS SRN MS. LEADING EDGE OF THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY IS MOVING ENEWD AT ROUGHLY 35KT AND WILL SPREAD INTO SRN AL SHORTLY. DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS CONVECTION AS IT SPREADS ALONG OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTION. ..DARROW.. 06/25/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...LIX... 28719032 29668952 30678951 31448624 30698551 28558938 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 25 23:15:31 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 25 Jun 2004 18:15:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406252315.i5PNFlg03314@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 252315 SWOMCD SPC MCD 252314 NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-260015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1422 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0614 PM CDT FRI JUN 25 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 522... VALID 252314Z - 260015Z ...SQUALL LINE WILL PROGRESS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF WW IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO... SQUALL LINE HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE LAST HOUR...STRETCHING FROM FAIRFIELD COUNTY SC...SWD TO NEAR SAV. THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING NEWD AT ROUGHLY 30-35KT AND WILL SOON SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF WW. THERE REMAINS AN AXIS OF YET TO BE OVERTURNED BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY ALONG THE COAST WHICH SHOULD AID CONVECTION AS IT LIFTS NEWD. DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR THE MAIN THREAT. ..DARROW.. 06/25/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...JAX... 31008140 32708162 34348148 34627987 33827801 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 26 00:36:06 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 25 Jun 2004 19:36:06 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406260036.i5Q0aMg27265@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 260035 SWOMCD SPC MCD 260035 FLZ000-ALZ000-260130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1423 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0735 PM CDT FRI JUN 25 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AL...FL PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 523... VALID 260035Z - 260130Z ...A SLOW DECREASE IN INTENSITY IS OCCURRING ALONG LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEX... OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS STRUGGLING TO LIFT INLAND AND REMAINS ALONG THE COAST OF THE FL PANHANDLE. THIS IS PREVENTING A RETURN OF HIGHER INSTABILITY AHEAD OF SLOWLY WEAKENING SQUALL LINE. IT APPEARS THIS DOWNWARD TREND WILL CONTINUE...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS MAY YET ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ..DARROW.. 06/26/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB... 29288827 30338803 31378785 30578438 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 26 11:42:20 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 26 Jun 2004 06:42:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406261142.i5QBghg28537@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 261142 SWOMCD SPC MCD 261141 LAZ000-261245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1424 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0641 AM CDT SAT JUN 26 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH CENTRAL LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 261141Z - 261245Z ISOLATED THREAT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS ALONG THE SOUTH CENTRAL LA COAST...AS BOW ECHO /CURRENTLY LOCATED 20-40 MILES OFFSHORE THE LA COAST/ REACHES THIS AREA OF LA AROUND 12Z. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW A BOW ECHO ACROSS THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO MOVING TO THE NE AT 30-35 KT ALONG AN INSTABILITY GRADIENT. THIS HAS BEEN A LONG LIVED ORGANIZED LINE OF STORMS ACROSS THE WRN GULF DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. OBJECTIVE ANALYSES AND 09Z RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A FAIRLY STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER INLAND ACROSS SRN LA...SUGGESTING THE FORWARD SPEED OF THIS BOW ECHO WILL SLOW AND/OR BECOME ELEVATED UPON LANDFALL. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF STRONGER WINDS INLAND...BUT AN ISOLATED WIND THREAT MAY EXIST ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST PRIOR TO THIS OCCURRENCE. ..PETERS.. 06/26/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH... 29739315 30009293 29849219 29749133 29279153 29449255 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 26 16:48:39 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 26 Jun 2004 11:48:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406261648.i5QGmsg25494@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 261648 SWOMCD SPC MCD 261647 GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-261745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1425 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1147 AM CDT SAT JUN 26 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN FL...SRN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 261647Z - 261745Z ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF SRN GA AND NRN FL... STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE INTO SERN GA IS AIDING AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION SOUTH OF WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. RECENT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER SERN AL TO NEAR PFN CONTINUES TO SLOWLY EXPAND AND SPREAD EWD WITHIN MODEST WLY FLOW THROUGH MID LEVELS. LATEST THINKING IS THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS MAY GRADUALLY BUILD A COLD POOL SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO ENHANCE EWD PROPAGATION ALONG THE GA/FL BORDER. IF THIS OCCURS...AND A N-S LINEAR STRUCTURE EVOLVES...THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS WILL INCREASE. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED IF THIS SCENARIO CONTINUES TO UNFOLD. ..DARROW.. 06/26/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE... 31288587 31728381 32008122 30448162 30138604 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 26 19:40:26 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 26 Jun 2004 14:40:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406261940.i5QJefg11984@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 261937 SWOMCD SPC MCD 261936 GAZ000-FLZ000-262030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1426 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0236 PM CDT SAT JUN 26 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN GA...NRN FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 524... VALID 261936Z - 262030Z ...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SPREAD/DEVELOP ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF WW OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS... STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY HAS YET TO BE OVERTURNED FROM EXTREME SERN GA INTO NRN FL WHERE SBCAPE VALUES ARE IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG. CONTINUED EWD EXPANSION OF LARGE CLUSTER OF CONVECTION WILL SOON SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SERN GA. WITH TIME OUTFLOW FROM THIS ACTIVITY MAY SPREAD SWD INTO NRN FL WHERE NEW THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG NEW EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT. ..DARROW.. 06/26/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE... 31878400 31288141 30268183 30018421 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 26 19:51:21 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 26 Jun 2004 14:51:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406261951.i5QJpYg14711@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 261951 SWOMCD SPC MCD 261950 OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-262145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1427 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0250 PM CDT SAT JUN 26 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NM/ERN CO/WRN KS/OK PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 261950Z - 262145Z ...HIGH PLAINS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A WW... NUMEROUS STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS IN PART DUE TO ENHANCED LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SERN WY ATTM. RECENT VWP DATA FROM DDC SHOWS AROUND 30 KT OF FLOW IN THE LOWEST 3 KM. WHILE FLOW ACROSS NRN NM/WRN OK WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK...STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. WHILE WIND FIELDS MAINLY SUPPORT ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS WRN KS/SERN CO WITH FAVORABLY VEERED WIND PROFILES. WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY INCREASE IF CLUSTERS ARE ABLE TO ORGANIZE INTO LINE SEGMENTS. WW MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS AFTN. ..TAYLOR.. 06/26/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ... 34380223 34860422 37490438 38930271 39040149 38759996 36759957 34860058 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 26 21:58:47 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 26 Jun 2004 16:58:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406262200.i5QM03g22129@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 262158 SWOMCD SPC MCD 262157 GAZ000-FLZ000-262300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1428 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0457 PM CDT SAT JUN 26 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN GA AND THE NERN FL PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 524... VALID 262157Z - 262300Z ...THUNDERSTORMS...WITH MAINLY A WIND THREAT...CONTINUE FOR SERN GA AND THE NERN FL PANHANDLE...EAST OF A LINE FROM 45 NW AYS TO 45 SE OF VLD. CONVECTIVE LINE IS MOVING EWD AT AROUND 35 KT ACROSS THE AREA...WITH NUMEROUS STORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF LINE. A MESOHIGH AND COLD POOL HAS DEVELOPED BEHIND THE LINE..WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT A WIND THREAT AS STORMS MOVE EWD INTO STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPES NEAR 3000 J/KG. GIVEN THE STRONGER INSTABILITY EXTENDING SWD INTO THE CENTRAL PENINSULA...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF WW ALSO. HOWEVER....STRONGEST CONVECTIVE BAND SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE BY AROUND 00Z...SO WW IS EXPECTED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 00Z. ..IMY.. 06/26/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX... 29788133 30098261 31158257 31828235 31888143 30968133 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 26 22:45:57 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 26 Jun 2004 17:45:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406262246.i5QMkGg00849@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 262245 SWOMCD SPC MCD 262245 NMZ000-270015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1429 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0545 PM CDT SAT JUN 26 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN AND ERN NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 262245Z - 270015Z BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST OF LVS TO 4CR TO SOUTH OF TCS WILL PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS...WITH SOME SEVERE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...THE SEVERE GUSTS SHOULD BE BRIEF AND SPOTTY...SO A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH DEVELOPED EARLIER ON THE MOUNTAINS...ARE ROLLING SEWD INTO THE PLAINS AREAS OF SRN AND ERN NM. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...MLCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER ARE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS. TCS REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 43 KT DURING THE PAST HOUR AND WIND GUSTS FROM 30 TO 45 KT SHOULD BE COMMON WITH THESE STORMS. GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 KT ARE POSSIBLE... BUT SHOULD BE BRIEF AND ISOLATED. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN DISSIPATING DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE OUTFLOW DOMINATED STORMS EVENTUALLY CUT OFF THE FLOW TO THE UPDRAFTS. ..IMY.. 06/26/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ... 32320753 32840794 33660622 34480522 35540490 35740412 35430350 34310347 33220446 32080670 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 27 13:56:51 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 27 Jun 2004 08:56:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406271357.i5RDv1K24799@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 271356 SWOMCD SPC MCD 271355 LAZ000-TXZ000-271600- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1430 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0855 AM CDT SUN JUN 27 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX...LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 271355Z - 271600Z ...DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE INCREASING AHEAD OF SQUALL LINE APPROACHING THE SABINE RIVER OF EAST TX/WRN LA...WW MAY BE REQUIRED... AN INCREASING CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE GRADUALLY EXPANDED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS AND APPEAR TO BE EVOLVING TOWARD A MATURE MCS OVER SERN TX. A WELL DEFINED SQUALL LINE HAS DEVELOPED ALONG LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTION ARCING FROM ANGELINA COUNTY TX...INTO SAN JACINTO TX...MOVING ENEWD AT ROUGHLY 35KT. 12Z SOUNDING FROM LCH INDICATES A FAIRLY SHARP INSTABILITY GRADIENT ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF LA WITH STRONG INSTABILITY...SBCAPES IN EXCESS OF 3000J/KG...ONSHORE ROUGHLY 50-100MI. GIVEN THE SUSTAINED WARM ADVECTION PROFILES OBSERVED...THIS EVOLVING MCS SHOULD CONTINUE ITS EWD MOVEMENT INTO LA WITH A POSSIBLE UPWARD TREND AS BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL AND POSSIBLE WW. ..DARROW.. 06/27/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD... 31709525 32349279 31799162 30549206 30169535 30879592 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 27 16:31:18 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 27 Jun 2004 11:31:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406271631.i5RGVYK08096@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 271630 SWOMCD SPC MCD 271630 ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-271830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1431 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1130 AM CDT SUN JUN 27 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MS...SRN AL...WRN FL PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 271630Z - 271830Z ...STRONG WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY SQUALL LINE AS IT MOVES EWD INTO SRN AL/WRN FL PANHANDLE... TRAILING PORTIONS OF WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY BE INFLUENCING RECENT INCREASE IN EXPANDING CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER SRN MS. THIS ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AND SURGE EWD ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF AL AND WRN PORTIONS OF THE FL PANHANDLE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE INCREASINGLY WLY COMPONENT THROUGH A DEEP LAYER. STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AND HIGH INSTABILITY SUGGEST LEADING EDGE OF COMPLEX MAY PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS. WW MAY BE REQUIRED DOWNSTREAM IF THIS UPWARD TREND CONTINUES. ..DARROW.. 06/27/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB... 31668852 32008648 31588554 30748574 30648830 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 27 19:18:42 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 27 Jun 2004 14:18:42 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406271918.i5RJIqK27434@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 271916 SWOMCD SPC MCD 271916 ALZ000-MSZ000-272115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1432 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0216 PM CDT SUN JUN 27 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 271916Z - 272115Z ...INCREASING THREAT FOR STRONG/SEVERE WINDS NEXT 1-2 HOURS... SQUALL LINE EXTENDING FROM GLH/TVR/HEZ IS MOVING E/NEWD AROUND 35 KT INTO MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS SRN/CNTRL MS...WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG. RECENT GUST TO 46 KT AT TVR HAS BEEN THE STRONGEST GUST SO FAR ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LINE...AND THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS. EARLIER JACKSON SOUNDING AND CURRENT VAD WIND DATA SUGGESTS ABOUT 30-35 KT OF MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW THROUGH A DEEP LAYER. SYSTEM HAS A WELL DEVELOPED COLD POOL...AND THE COMBINATION OF FORWARD PROPAGATION AND ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW WILL SUSTAIN THE MCS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. A WW MAY BE REQUIRED SHORTLY. ..TAYLOR/DARROW.. 06/27/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BMX...JAN... 33099112 33498883 32438841 31918924 31569072 32489069  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 27 21:35:51 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 27 Jun 2004 16:35:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406272136.i5RLa2K07029@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 272132 SWOMCD SPC MCD 272132 OKZ000-TXZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-272330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1433 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0432 PM CDT SUN JUN 27 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM/PARTS OF THE OK TX PNHDLS AND WEST TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 272132Z - 272330Z TSTM ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE ERN PLAINS OF NM AND MOVE INTO PARTS OF WRN OK/TX PNHDLS. ACTVTY COULD THEN SPREAD AS FAR SOUTH AS WEST TX BY LATER IN THE EVENING. A WATCH MAY BE ISSUED SHORTLY. NUMEROUS TSTM HAVE FIRED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF ERN CO WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE ACROSS SRN CO AND NRN NM. THIS ACTIVITY HAS ACTED TO ENHANCE LOW LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT FROM NERN NM INTO THE NWRN TX PNHDL. AIRMASS TO THE SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S F AND DEWPOINTS NEARING 60F. STEEP LAPSE RATES...LIMITED INHIBITION...WEAK STEERING FLOW WILL AID ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS DEVELOPING SWD THROUGH THIS EVENING. OVERALL DEEP LAYER SPEED SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL N/NWLY IS FCST TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY AND RESULT IN SUFFICIENT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR FOR MULTICELL STORMS POSSIBLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED ALONG THERMAL GRADIENT/OUTFLOW. LARGE HAIL AND A FEW DAMAGING WIND EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE AND A WATCH MAY BE ISSUED SHORTLY. ..CARBIN.. 06/27/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DDC...LUB...AMA...MAF...PUB...ABQ... 35830444 37230214 36780163 34660178 33150234 32270303 32230382 33310511 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 27 21:41:49 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 27 Jun 2004 16:41:49 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406272142.i5RLg0K08548@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 272138 SWOMCD SPC MCD 272138 KSZ000-272345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1434 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0438 PM CDT SUN JUN 27 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 272138Z - 272345Z A BAND OF STRONG TSTMS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN KS ALONG A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY. AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY HAS BEEN ABLE TO HEAT UP INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX NEAR GREAT BEND KS...AND THIS MAY HELP ENHANCE STORMS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE STORMS HAVE PRIMARILY BEEN OUTFLOW DOMINANT...BUT IF THEY ARE ABLE TO FORM INTO A MORE LINEAR STRUCTURE...GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. HAVILAND AND HILLSBORO PROFILERS INDICATE AROUND 30-35 KT OF FLOW THROUGH ABOUT 6 KM...WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE WRN HIGH PLAINS. COLLIDING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR NEW STORMS...WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS. ..TAYLOR.. 06/27/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...DDC... 37139913 37849912 38599704 38399483 37009491 37059736 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 27 22:10:43 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 27 Jun 2004 17:10:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406272210.i5RMAsK16318@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 272208 SWOMCD SPC MCD 272208 GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-280015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1435 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0508 PM CDT SUN JUN 27 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN GA/NRN FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 272208Z - 280015Z MARGINALLY ORGANIZED LINE OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST FROM SERN AL INTO HOT AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS SITUATED ACROSS SRN GA. A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STORMS THIS EVENING. LONG-LIVED COMPLEX OF MULTICELL STORMS MOVING EAST INTO SWRN GA AT 35-40KT ATTM. AIRMASS AHEAD OF THIS CONVECTION WAS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. WLY FLOW OF 25-30KT THROUGH MUCH OF THE TROPOSPHERE WAS RESULTING IN LIMITED SHEAR BUT SUFFICIENT STEERING FLOW TO MAINTAIN LINEAR STORM MODE ACROSS SRN GA AND PARTS OF NRN FL THROUGH THE EVENING. A FEW LOCATIONS IN SRN GA HAVE HEATED INTO THE LOW 90S F RESULTING IN STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES THAT COULD SUPPORT ISOLD TO WIDELY SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS AS THE STORMS MOVE THROUGH. GIVEN WEAK SHEAR..LIMITED ORGANIZATION... AND DIURNAL TRENDS TOWARD WEAKENING INSTABILITY...A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. ..CARBIN.. 06/27/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX... 30618482 31718492 32508513 32798372 32718196 31548158 30658208 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 27 22:32:48 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 27 Jun 2004 17:32:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406272233.i5RMX3K22089@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 272231 SWOMCD SPC MCD 272231 ALZ000-MSZ000-280000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1436 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0531 PM CDT SUN JUN 27 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MS/WRN AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 525... VALID 272231Z - 280000Z PAIR OF BOW ECHOES HAVE BEEN MOVING ACROSS ERN MS AT 40-45KT AND WILL MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF WRN AL NEXT HOUR. THIS CONVECTION HAS SHOWN A SLIGHT DECREASE IN ORGANIZATION/STRENGTH WITH OUTFLOW FROM NRN BOW BECOMING MORE ALIGNED WITH DEEP LAYER WIND FIELD AND ENTIRE GUST FRONT OUTRUNNING DEEPER CONVECTIVE COLD POOL. FURTHERMORE... CONVECTION WAS BEGINNING TO ENCOUNTER MORE STABLE AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF STORMS NOW MOVING INTO SRN GA. SEVERE WIND POTENTIAL SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH IN AREAL COVERAGE AS THESE TRENDS CONTINUE WITH STORMS REACHING THE ERN EDGE OF THE WATCH BY 00Z/7PM CDT. ..CARBIN.. 06/27/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN... 31338955 33258925 33778709 32788690 32158700 31658710 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 28 00:21:06 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 27 Jun 2004 19:21:06 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406280021.i5S0LFK17488@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 280020 SWOMCD SPC MCD 280020 TXZ000-NMZ000-280145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1437 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0720 PM CDT SUN JUN 27 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM/WRN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 526... VALID 280020Z - 280145Z INTENSE CONVECTION CONTINUES SPREADING SWD ACROSS ERN NM AT UP TO 30KT. STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS NOTED ON CLOVIS BASE REFLECTIVITY AND HAS RESULTED IN WIND GUSTS OF 40-45KT UPON PASSAGE AT TCC. STRONGER WINDS ARE LIKELY NEAR GUST FRONT INTERSECTIONS WHERE UPDRAFT/DOWNDRAFT COUPLETS ARE LOCALLY MAXIMIZED AND THIS APPEARS TO BE SHOWN BY 50KT INBOUND VELOCITY ON CLOVIS RADAR DATA. LIFT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF DEEP COLD POOL SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROMOTE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS ERN NM AND PARTS OF WRN TX THIS EVENING. DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE WATCH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ..CARBIN.. 06/28/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ... 32990481 35290484 35590361 36030334 36040236 32990243 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 28 03:20:54 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 27 Jun 2004 22:20:54 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406280321.i5S3LFK00787@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 280320 SWOMCD SPC MCD 280319 TXZ000-NMZ000-280415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1438 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1019 PM CDT SUN JUN 27 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM/WRN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 526... VALID 280319Z - 280415Z LARGE AND WELL ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CONTINUES DEVELOPING SOUTH ACROSS ERN NM AND PARTS OF THE WRN TX PNHDL LATE THIS EVENING. SYSTEM APPEARS TO HAVE DEVELOPED A SUBSTANTIALLY DEEP COLD POOL WITH STRONG NLY FLOW PER TCU PROFILER. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY APPEARS TO HAVE RUN OUT AHEAD OF THE DEEPER CONVECTION AND WAS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS NRN/CNTRL CHAVES COUNTY AND SRN ROOSEVELT COUNTY...AS WELL AS INTO SRN BAILEY AND NRN COCHRAN COUNTIES IN THE WRN TX PNHDL. DEEPER ASCENT BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BE ABLE TO SUSTAIN VIGOROUS UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT AND WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO. A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED AFTER 04Z/10 PM MDT AS INCREASING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION BEGINS TO DAMPEN MESOSCALE ASCENT ALONG AND BEHIND THE OUTFLOW. AN ADDITIONAL WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED SOUTH OF THE ONGOING ACTIVITY. ..CARBIN.. 06/28/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ... 32910494 34840488 35050232 32980213 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 28 10:12:19 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 28 Jun 2004 05:12:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406281012.i5SACRK16254@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 281009 SWOMCD SPC MCD 281009 ALZ000-MSZ000-281115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1439 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0509 AM CDT MON JUN 28 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS EAST CENTRAL/NERN MS AND WEST CENTRAL/NWRN AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 281009Z - 281115Z ELEVATED BOWING LINE OF STORMS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL/NERN MS INTO WEST CENTRAL/NWRN AL BETWEEN 10-13Z. DOWNSTREAM STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE AREA OF CONCERN IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR...THUS LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS. WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. WV IMAGERY INDICATED A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY AT 0915Z...WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE LIKELY AIDING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM SERN AR INTO NRN MS. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED A BOWING LINE OF STORMS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS ACTIVITY...EXTENDING FROM PONTOTOC COUNTY TO ATTALA COUNTY MS AT 10Z. 20-25 KT SSWLY LLJ NOSING INTO THE WRN EDGE OF THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS APPEARS TO BE FEEDING THIS ACTIVITY WITH A MOIST/MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS LOCATED OVER ERN TX. 06Z RUC SUGGESTS STORMS WILL PERSIST WITH AN EWD MOVEMENT OF 30-40 KT WITH THE MEAN WIND...AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAINTAINS A LLJ INTO AND SOUTH OF THE COMPLEX. DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL BE LOW...GIVEN THE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER DOWNSTREAM INTO AL ATTM...LIMITING THE DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF STRONGER WINDS. HOWEVER...IF THIS COMPLEX MAINTAINS ITSELF AFTER THE ONSET OF SURFACE HEATING...THE RESULTANT AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION AND FORECAST WIND FIELD MAY INCREASE THE SEVERE POTENTIAL LATER THIS MORNING. ..PETERS.. 06/28/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN... 34248879 34288637 33668641 33118684 33118817 33168942 33668882 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 28 17:59:43 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 28 Jun 2004 12:59:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406281759.i5SHxn112755@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 281759 SWOMCD SPC MCD 281758 FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-282000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1440 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1258 PM CDT MON JUN 28 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...GULF COASTAL AREAS CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 281758Z - 282000Z LOCALLY VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND ISOLATED MICROBURSTS POSSIBLE ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS. WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN FLORIDA/SOUTHERN GEORGIA HAS DRIED/STABILIZED...REMAINDER OF THE WESTERN/CENTRAL GULF COASTAL AREAS FROM SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN ALABAMA REMAINS VERY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER/MID 70S. HEATING OF THIS WEAKLY CAPPED AIR MASS HAS CONTRIBUTED TO 100 MB MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 2500 J/KG...AND INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG SEA BREEZES PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. FURTHER INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED OVER INLAND AREAS ALONG OUTFLOWS THROUGH THE 20-21Z TIME FRAME. DUE TO WARM/MOIST SOUNDINGS...HAIL THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL...BUT HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT/LARGE CAPE WILL SUPPORT LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN CORES...WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING MICROBURSTS. WEAK FLOW/SHEAR REGIME WILL MINIMIZE OVERALL WIND THREAT...AND RISK OF DOWNBURSTS WILL DECREASE AS WIDESPREAD CONVECTION BEGINS TO COOL/STABILIZE BOUNDARY LAYER BY LATE AFTERNOON. ..KERR.. 06/28/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX... 27409742 28239862 28969835 30799751 31169502 31899365 32119154 32499060 32438921 32158778 31978676 31248615 31078486 30808399 30068415 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 28 21:27:39 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 28 Jun 2004 16:27:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406282127.i5SLRo111699@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 282127 SWOMCD SPC MCD 282126 IDZ000-NVZ000-ORZ000-282330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1441 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0426 PM CDT MON JUN 28 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN NV...ERN ORE...SRN ID CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 282126Z - 282330Z WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS ARE LIKELY OVER PARTS OF THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST THROUGH THE EVENING. A CONCENTRATED AREA OF WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL MAY EVOLVE ACROSS PARTS OF SRN ID AND A WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY. SERIES OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES CONTINUE TO LIFT NWD/NEWD AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF LARGE SCALE UPPER RIDGE SITUATED ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. ONE OF THESE FEATURES...CLEARLY EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...WAS MOVING OVER THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY BETWEEN WRN ID AND NERN ORE. SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE HAS ALLOWED CLEAR SKIES AND STRONG INSOLATION TO OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF SRN ID AND NRN NV. MEANWHILE...A BAND OF STRONGER S/SELY MID LEVEL FLOW WAS DEVELOPING NWD ACROSS NV. VIGOROUS CONVECTION WAS BEGINNING TO FIRE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NERN NV AND SWRN ID AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE INTO AN AXIS OF GREATER INSTABILITY AND DCAPE ACROSS NRN NV AND SRN ID OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL..LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NWD MOVING NV IMPULSE COUPLED WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN NUMEROUS STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS. ..CARBIN.. 06/28/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PIH...BOI...LKN... 41211806 42531877 43671831 44091792 44341652 43951427 42761308 41341511 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 28 22:04:44 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 28 Jun 2004 17:04:44 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406282204.i5SM4o125874@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 282204 SWOMCD SPC MCD 282203 GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-282330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1442 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0503 PM CDT MON JUN 28 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 282203Z - 282330Z ...DAMAGING WINDS MAY SPREAD INTO SRN GA BY 00Z... STORMS WHICH FORMED ALONG THE GULFBREEZE EARLIER THIS AFTN HAVE BEEN SLOWLY ORGANIZING...AND MOVING NEWD TOWARD AN AREA OF STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW. STORMS CURRENTLY MOVING NEWD AROUND 20-25 KT WILL ARRIVE NEAR THE GA/AL BORDER BY AROUND 23Z. THE AIRMASS ACROSS SRN GA HAS DESTABILIZED WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG AND TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS OF 20 DEGREES. VAD WIND DATA FROM MONTGOMERY SHOWS AROUND 30-35 KT OF WLY FLOW AROUND 3 KM. A BOUNDARY RECENTLY PASSED THROUGH MACON/COLUMBUS...WITH NEW CONVECTION DEVELOPING. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THESE STORMS WILL POSE A DAMAGING WIND THREAT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A WW MAY BE REQUIRED. ..TAYLOR/CARBIN.. 06/28/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX... 30688330 30768495 32508552 32758368 32598155 30588222 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 28 22:35:40 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 28 Jun 2004 17:35:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406282235.i5SMZn104332@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 282235 SWOMCD SPC MCD 282234 TXZ000-282330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1443 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0534 PM CDT MON JUN 28 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 282234Z - 282330Z INTENSE CONVECTION ACROSS POLK...TRINITY...AND ANGELINA COUNTIES APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING INVOF DEVELOPING MESOLOW ALONG REMNANT SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY AND GULF BREEZE BOUNDARY COLLISION. VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS COUPLED WITH MESO/STORMSCALE FORCING AND STRONG UPDRAFT STRETCHING MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLD/BRIEF TORNADO WITH THIS CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. GIVEN OVERALL WEAK SHEAR AND FORCING ACROSS THE REGION...AND MOSTLY RANDOM NATURE OF MOST ONGOING CONVECTION...A WATCH IS NOT BEING ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. ..CARBIN.. 06/28/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX... 30499413 30469487 30709494 31279486 31389445 31419376 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 29 09:41:04 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 29 Jun 2004 04:41:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406290941.i5T9fF109160@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 290940 SWOMCD SPC MCD 290939 OKZ000-TXZ000-291245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1444 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0439 AM CDT TUE JUN 29 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS W-CENTRAL/NW TX...SERN TX PANHANDLE...SW OK CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 290939Z - 291245Z CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS FCST TO INCREASE FROM S-N ACROSS ROUGHLY 100 NM WIDE SWATH FROM SJT AREA NNEWD PAST CDS...TO I-40 AREA FROM CSM WWD INTO ERN PANHANDLE. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP N OF ONGOING CLUSTER OVER COKE/TOM GREEN/IRION/STERLING COUNTIES TX AND MOVE GENERALLY NWD...RESULTING IN TRAINING OF PRECIP CORES THAT MAY PRODUCE 2-3 INCH/HOUR RAIN RATES. MIDLEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS EVIDENT OVER TX/NM BORDER AREA BETWEEN HOB-TCC...WITH PLUME OF RELATIVELY ENHANCED LOW LEVEL WAA AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO IS E -- ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA. CORRIDOR OF 20-25 KT 850 MB FLOW IS EVIDENT IN VWP/PROFILER ANALYSIS FROM SJT AREA NWD...CORRESPONDING WELL TO RUC PROGS OF MAXIMIZED ISENTROPIC ASCENT...MIDLEVEL UVV AND 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER THIS AREA. MODIFIED RAOBS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE VERY MOIST FOR THIS REGION WITH HIGH RH THROUGHOUT TROPOSPHERE...ROUGHLY 1.75 INCH PW...AND 850 MB DEW POINTS OF 15-16 DEG C. DESPITE NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC DEEP-LAYER LAPSE RATES...ELEVATED MUCAPE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 700-1000 J/KG IN PRECONVECTIVE AIR MASS WITH MINIMAL CINH. THIS SUPPORTS POTENTIAL FOR MUCH MORE DENSE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THAN AT PRESENT...INCLUDING SCATTERED-NUMEROUS TSTMS. ..EDWARDS.. 06/29/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF... 31590127 33500139 35270094 35349998 35329923 33749899 31809965 31190016 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 29 20:06:05 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 29 Jun 2004 15:06:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406292006.i5TK67111344@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 292005 SWOMCD SPC MCD 292004 MIZ000-WIZ000-292200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1446 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0304 PM CDT TUE JUN 29 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN WI...NRN LWR MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 292004Z - 292200Z WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED. AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGS ACROSS MANITOBA/WESTERN ONTARIO... LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENT ZONE IN WAKE OF DOWNSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH... MIGRATING TO THE LEE OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...IS EXPECTED TO BECOME FOCUS FOR INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG AN AXIS SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF DULUTH MN INTO THE HOUGHTON LAKE MI AREA IS MAINTAINING MID 50S DEW POINTS...AND SURFACE HEATING HAS CONTRIBUTED TO NARROW CORRIDOR OF WEAK TO MODERATE DESTABILIZATION. LATEST OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE SUGGEST MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE HAS INCREASED IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG. GIVEN WEAK CAPPING... THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN NUMBER THROUGH THE 21-23Z TIME FRAME. THOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT STRONG...IT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO ENHANCE RISK OF LARGE HAIL WITH ISOLATED STRONGER CELLS EMBEDDED WITHIN FAVORABLY COOL CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME. ..KERR.. 06/29/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX... 46169040 46118935 45668827 45198686 45118597 44428407 42938264 43098465 44108839 44638964 44909094 45009187 45589103 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 29 20:33:05 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 29 Jun 2004 15:33:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406292033.i5TKX7123901@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 292031 SWOMCD SPC MCD 292031 NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-292300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1447 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0331 PM CDT TUE JUN 29 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NEB PANHANDLE/W-CENTRAL NEB...AND SWRN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 292031Z - 292300Z ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE BY EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS W-CENTRAL NEB/ERN NEB PANHANDLE...AND SWRN SD. PRIMARY THREAT WILL LIKELY BE LARGE HAIL...WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. WW MAY BE REQUIRED. AT 20Z...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT BOUNDARY LAYER CU HAVE INCREASED ALONG SURFACE CONVERGENCE ZONE NEAR THE SWRN SD/NWRN NEB BORDER. ISOLATED TSTMS HAVE ALSO FORMED ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS. DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA HAS DESTABILIZED THE BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH 100MB MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG. CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS MINIMAL. DESPITE ABSENCE OF LARGE-SCALE SUPPORT FOR ASCENT...WITH 500MB RIDGE IN PLACE...BOUNDARY LAYER FORCING MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. NWLY SFC-6M SHEAR AROUND 30KT WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN SOME ROTATIONAL CHARACTERISTICS TO STRONGER CELLS...WHICH WILL ALSO ENHANCE THREAT FOR LARGER HAIL. WBZ HEIGHTS AROUND 8 KFT AND MODERATE INSTABILITY ALSO SUPPORT LARGE HAIL. MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS /AROUND 30F/ MAY RESULT IN VERY ISOLATED DOWNDRAFTS...WITH WINDS LOCALLY APPROACHING SEVERE LIMITS. ..BANACOS.. 06/29/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR...BOU...CYS... 41080287 41710283 42270296 42980325 44120401 44480384 44260181 44170058 43530008 42949982 41639970 40939990 40780092 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 29 23:55:51 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 29 Jun 2004 18:55:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406292355.i5TNtr103953@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 292355 SWOMCD SPC MCD 292354 NEZ000-SDZ000-300100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1448 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0654 PM CDT TUE JUN 29 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN SD...W-CENTRAL NEB...AND THE NEB PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 527... VALID 292354Z - 300100Z WW 527 CONTINUES IN EFFECT. AT 2335Z...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK AND DISORGANIZED FROM SRN SHANNON COUNTY SD SWD TO NEAR I-80 IN THE NEB PANHANDLE. STORMS MOVEMENT WAS GENERALLY SWD/SEWD AROUND 5KT. DESPITE MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH 100MB MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG...ABSENCE OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING HAS BEEN A HINDRANCE TO CONVECTIVE INTENSITY TO THIS POINT. MERRIMAN NEB PROFILER INDICATES 30KT OF SFC-6KM SHEAR...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION GIVEN STRONGER UPDRAFTS. HOWEVER...PRESENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST ACTIVITY MAY NOT BECOME VIGOROUS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SEVERE HAIL. IF INTENSITY TRENDS DO NOT CHANGE...WW CANCELLATION MAY OCCUR PRIOR TO 4Z. ..BANACOS.. 06/29/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS... 41090058 41080327 44010382 44020100 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 1 02:17:53 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 31 May 2004 21:17:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406010217.i512Hqj06747@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 010126 SWOMCD SPC MCD 010125 OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-010330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1030 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0825 PM CDT MON MAY 31 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...E-CENTRAL MO...CENTRAL IL...N-CENTRAL/CENTRAL IND...FAR WRN OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 010125Z - 010330Z THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS WILL PERSIST DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION REGION. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN GENERALLY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS BY 03Z. AT 0115Z...SEVERAL CONVECTIVE LINE SEGMENTS EXTEND FROM NERN IND SWWD INTO THE STL METRO AREA. LINE MOTIONS ARE MODERATELY FAST...ESEWD AT 30-35 KT. THE 00Z ILX SOUNDING SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT IS CHARACTERIZED VERY STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG DEEP LAYER WLY FLOW. ADDITIONALLY...SFC-850MB LAYER IS RELATIVELY DRY ENHANCING EVAPORATIVE COOLING POTENTIAL IN DOWNDRAFTS. MUCAPE VALUES ARE MARGINAL / 500-1000 J/KG / AND DIURNAL COOLING SHOULD REDUCE POTENTIAL FOR DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER AS STORMS WEAKEN AND BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES. THUS...THREAT OF WIND DAMAGING IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DIMINISH AFTER 03Z. ..BANACOS.. 06/01/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILN...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...SGF... 39169183 39099079 39558974 40128827 40438753 41108579 41258495 40718449 40078493 38788802 38118968 38169188  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 1 04:32:18 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 31 May 2004 23:32:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406010432.i514WFj02494@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 010431 SWOMCD SPC MCD 010431 TXZ000-010530- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1031 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1131 PM CDT MON MAY 31 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN / SERN TX... CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 362... VALID 010431Z - 010530Z SEVERE STORMS / SUPERCELLS CONTINUE ACROSS WW...AND POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STORMS TO BEGIN A MORE SWD PROPAGATION. WW CONTINUES...WITH NEWLY-ISSUED WW 363 SOUTH OF WW 362 COVERING THE THREAT FOR SWD PROPAGATION OF SEVERE THREAT. SEVERAL SEVERE / SUPERCELL STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS WW...WITH PERSISTENT STORM REDEVELOPMENT INDICATED IN WRN PORTIONS OF WW OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS IN WARM ADVECTION ZONE NEAR / JUST N OF SURFACE BOUNDARY. WITH VERY MOIST /UPPER 70S DEWPOINTS/ LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS AND CORRESPONDING AXIS OF WEAKLY-CAPPED 3000-4000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE EXTENDING SEWD TO GALVESTON BAY...THE POTENTIAL APPEARS TO EXIST FOR STORMS TO CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALTHOUGH STORMS HAVE MOVED GENERALLY SEWD THIS EVENING...INCREASING SLY / SSWLY LOW-LEVEL JET MAY ALLOW A SLIGHTLY MORE SSEWD PROPAGATION OF STORMS WITH TIME -- PARTICULARLY GIVEN PRESENCE OF INSTABILITY AXIS. EITHER WAY...EXPECT THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL AS WELL AS AN ISOLATED TORNADO TO PERSIST ACROSS THIS WW AND INTO NEWLY-ISSUED WW 363 THROUGH AT LEAST 01/07Z. ..GOSS.. 06/01/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX... 32849748 31929463 29649463 29029517 28779581 29419707 30909752 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 1 08:44:38 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 01 Jun 2004 03:44:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406010844.i518iZj21016@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 010841 SWOMCD SPC MCD 010841 LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-011015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1032 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0341 AM CDT TUE JUN 01 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX/WRN LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 364... VALID 010841Z - 011015Z WEAK FRONTAL WAVE HAS FORMED NEAR RUSK COUNTY IN NERN TX WITH WARM FRONT EXTENDING ESEWD ACROSS LA AND INTO SRN MS. STRONG CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW EXTENDS SWWD FROM THE LOW WITH A MESOHIGH INVOF ROBERTSON COUNTY TX. STRONG AND OCCASIONALLY SEVERE STORMS PERSIST PRIMARILY NEAR THE LOW AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT...FROM NERN TX INTO NRN LA. NEW CELLS ARE ALSO DEVELOPING ACROSS MS. ACTIVITY ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS BEEN WEAKENING AND IR SATELLITE ALSO INDICATES WARMING CLOUD TOPS OVER THIS CONVECTION. ISENTROPIC LIFT ACTING ON VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS...COUPLED WITH MODEST WLY MID LEVEL FLOW...SHOULD SUSTAIN SEVERE STORM/HAIL POTENTIAL ACROSS NRN AND ERN PARTS OF SEVERE TSTM WATCH 364 FOR AWHILE LONGER. ..CARBIN.. 06/01/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX... 30009457 30029872 33029688 33009255  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 1 11:44:02 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 01 Jun 2004 06:44:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406011143.i51Bhxj04874@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 011143 SWOMCD SPC MCD 011142 GAZ000-ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-011345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1033 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0642 AM CDT TUE JUN 01 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...LWR MS VLY/NRN GULF COAST CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 011142Z - 011345Z BANDS OF STRONG TSTMS CONTINUE THIS MORNING FROM NRN LA...AND INLAND FROM THE NRN GULF COAST. THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY REMAINS BELOW SEVERE LEVELS. NRN LA MCS APPEARS TO BE FWD PROPAGATING AT THIS TIME AND CONTINUES TO MOVE ALONG NRN EDGE OF SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY GRADIENT. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH OR MCV APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COMPLEX. ADDITIONAL STORMS...LIKELY ELEVATED...HAVE PERSISTED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS TO THE NORTH OF GULF COAST WARM FRONT FROM SRN MS ACROSS SRN AL...THE WRN FL PNHDL...AND SRN GA. MUCH OF THIS CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE MULTICELLULAR AS STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR WAS SITUATED TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE WITHIN A ZONE OF STRONG MOISTURE FLUX AND LIFT TO THE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. ASCENT AND SHEAR MAY STRENGTHEN AS MCV MOVES EAST THIS MORNING AND...COUPLED WITH DIURNAL HEATING...RESULT IN GRADUAL STORM INTENSIFICATION. ..CARBIN.. 06/01/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD... 32668324 31898297 30958258 31058660 30838894 30409339 30899558 31429562 32659391 33229126 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 1 14:27:56 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 01 Jun 2004 09:27:56 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406011427.i51ERrj05849@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 011427 SWOMCD SPC MCD 011426 FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-011530- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1034 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0926 AM CDT TUE JUN 01 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LA EWD TO SWRN GA/NWRN FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 011426Z - 011530Z WW WILL BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT HOUR FOR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION FROM SRN LA EWD TO SWRN GA/NWRN FL. WELL ORGANIZED MCV ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER SWRN-CENTRAL MS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ESEWD WITHIN PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT...REACHING SWRN AL BY 18Z AND NEAR SWRN GA BY 21Z. REGIONAL RADARS ALSO SHOW EMBEDDED BOW SIGNATURES WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING EWD ACROSS FAR SRN AL ALONG THE COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDS FROM FAR SRN GA WWD TO SRN LA. AIR MASS ALONG/S OF THIS BOUNDARY IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE...GIVEN A VERY MOIST INFLUX OF GULF AIR. AUGMENTED DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF THE MCV WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION THIS MORNING FROM SRN LA/SERN MS EWD TO SWRN GA/NWRN FL. BOWING SEGMENTS PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...THOUGH ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES. ..PETERS.. 06/01/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH... 29208982 29429246 31049216 31588982 31448707 31468448 31318344 29798330 29548512 29568684 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 1 15:12:53 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 01 Jun 2004 10:12:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406011512.i51FCoj03105@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 011511 SWOMCD SPC MCD 011511 NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-011615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1035 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1011 AM CDT TUE JUN 01 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL-ERN NY/CENTRAL-ERN PA TO NRN VA/MD/DE INCLUDING DC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 011511Z - 011615Z WW MAY BE REQUIRED SOON FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL-ERN NY/PA SWD TO NRN VA/MD/DE INCLUDING DC. PRIMARY THREATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. 14Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK FRONT EXTENDING FROM ERN NY SWWD TO WRN VA ALONG THE APPALACHIANS. AIR MASS ALONG AND EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY IS MOIST WITH OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATING THE CIN IS WEAKENING WITH TIME. THE AREA FROM CENTRAL-ERN NY SWD TO PORTIONS OF VA/MD IS BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WV IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORT WAVE TROUGH/MCV OVER ERN OH ATTM...WITH A SECOND WEAKER WAVE ACROSS NERN KY. THESE FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PROVIDE THE NEEDED LARGE SCALE ASCENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA OF CONCERN... GIVEN THE LACK OF WELL DEFINED AND EXPECTED WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER NRN VA/MD TO ERN PA/ERN NY AND DECREASING SOMEWHAT ACROSS CENTRAL NY WILL SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION. ..PETERS.. 06/01/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...AKQ...BUF...CTP...LWX...RNK... 42057815 43127789 43877481 42817411 41367429 38497506 37277569 37587837 39647886 41577847 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 1 16:11:05 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 01 Jun 2004 11:11:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406011611.i51GB3j08818@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 011608 SWOMCD SPC MCD 011607 FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-011730- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1036 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1107 AM CDT TUE JUN 01 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LA/SRN MS EWD TO SRN GA/NRN FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 365... VALID 011607Z - 011730Z DAMAGING WIND THREAT INCREASING ACROSS SERN MS INTO SWRN AL. NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED TO THE EAST OF WW 365 ACROSS NRN FL THIS AFTERNOON. 15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS COMBINED WITH VIS/RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS OVER SRN AL/WRN FL PANHANDLE...EXTENDING FROM COASTAL AREA OF SWRN AL WNWWD TO THE FAST MOVING BOW ECHO OVER SRN MS. AIR MASS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE...WITH THE FASTEST PORTION OF THE BOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ITS ESEWD MOVEMENT AT AROUND 40 KT ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT. DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS SERN MS THROUGH 17Z...AND ACROSS FAR SWRN AL/FAR WRN FL PANHANDLE BETWEEN 1630-18Z. SURFACE ANALYSIS ACROSS SRN GA/NRN FL INDICATED TWO SURFACE BOUNDARIES. A SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM SERN GA SWWD TO THE FL PANHANDLE...WITH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH ACROSS FAR NRN FL. AIR MASS ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE AND SHOULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASES FROM THE WEST WITH THE APPROACH OF TWO MCV/S...ONE CURRENTLY OVER SERN AL AND THE OTHER ACROSS SERN MS. WW MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE REST OF FAR NRN FL THIS AFTERNOON AS ACTIVITY ACROSS SWRN GA/CENTRAL FL PANHANDLE APPROACHES THIS REGION AND/OR ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS NRN FL SHOW SIGNS OF BETTER ORGANIZATION. ..PETERS.. 06/01/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH... 29729346 31769105 31808190 30698150 30028139 29638337 29658458 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 1 18:32:18 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 01 Jun 2004 13:32:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406011832.i51IWEj01304@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 011831 SWOMCD SPC MCD 011830 WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-011930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1037 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0130 PM CDT TUE JUN 01 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO/SRN IL/SRN IND/SRN OH/WRN-NRN KY/FAR WRN WV CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 011830Z - 011930Z THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SERN MO/SRN IL/WRN KY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS SRN IND INTO NRN KY/SWRN OH THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WW MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA EXTENDING FROM SERN MO/ WRN KY/SRN IL EWD TO SRN OH/FAR WRN WV. SURFACE STREAMLINE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A ZONE OF CONFLUENCE EXTENDING FROM FAR WRN TN/FAR SERN MO TOWARD SWRN OH INDICATIVE OF A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH. SSWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT MOISTURE NNEWD ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S INTO SWRN IND AND MID 50S INTO CENTRAL-NRN KY. PLUME OF STEEP LAPSE RATES EXTENDING FROM THE MID MS TO LOWER OH VALLEYS COMBINED WITH CONTINUED SURFACE HEATING AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL SUPPORT MARGINAL INSTABILITY. LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOCATED FROM CENTRAL IND SWWD TO SRN IL WILL SPREAD EWD AIDING ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE DESTABILIZING AIR MASS. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT WITH ANY STORMS THAT CAN MAINTAIN AN UPDRAFT. ..PETERS.. 06/01/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IWX...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...SGF... 40328517 39508217 39098125 38238172 37648322 37668567 36658761 36208886 36558995 37579150 39629041 40438765 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 1 19:45:45 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 01 Jun 2004 14:45:45 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406011945.i51Jjej17107@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 011944 SWOMCD SPC MCD 011943 TXZ000-012145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1038 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0243 PM CDT TUE JUN 01 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CNTRL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 011943Z - 012145Z SEVERE TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN/CNTRL TX...WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS EVIDENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE SUGGESTS FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- EMBEDDED WITHIN W/NW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS WRN OK/NW TX -- WILL SPREAD E/SE ACROSS NRN/CNTRL TX THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST MESOANALYSIS/MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS PORTRAY RAPIDLY WEAKENING CINH IN ADDITION TO DEVELOPING CU/TCU -- INITIALLY IN ABI/BWD/SEP CORRIDOR -- OWING TO STRONG HEATING /90S AND LOWER 100S/ ALONG PERIPHERY OF DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS CNTRL/ERN TX. EXTREMELY UNSTABLE MLCAPE IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASING TO 35-45 KTS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. MAIN HAZARDS LIKELY TO BE LARGE HAIL OWING TO MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY/SHEAR...WITH DAMAGING WINDS/ISOLD TORNADOES POSSIBLE AS WELL. TORNADO THREAT WOULD BE MOST PROBABLE IN LOCALLY BACKED FLOW/HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN/CNTRL TX -- LIKELY ATTRIBUTABLE TO REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION. ..GUYER.. 06/01/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT... 30789940 30899961 32189944 33189910 33729831 33499632 32829525 32439510 30489553 29909655 30139822 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 1 20:27:16 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 01 Jun 2004 15:27:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406012027.i51KREj11231@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 012023 SWOMCD SPC MCD 012022 VTZ000-CTZ000-MAZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-012115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1039 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0322 PM CDT TUE JUN 01 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL-ERN NY/CENTRAL-ERN PA/NJ/CENTRAL-NRN VA/ERN WV PANHANDLE/MD/DC/DE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 366...367... VALID 012022Z - 012115Z THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS TO CONTINUE EWD ACROSS ERN PA/CENTRAL-ERN MD INTO NJ AND THE DELMARVA AREA. AT 2015Z...REGIONAL RADARS SHOW AN ORGANIZED LINE OF STORMS WITH EMBEDDED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EXTENDING FROM WYOMING COUNTY PA SWD TO RICHMOND COUNTY VA. THIS LINE IS MOVING TO THE EAST AROUND 35 KT WITH EMBEDDED SEGMENTS MOVING EWD AT 40 KT. DESPITE MARGINAL INSTABILITY...THIS WELL ORGANIZED LINE...WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH...WILL LIKELY PRODUCE ADDITIONAL WIND DAMAGE EWD ACROSS ERN PA/CENTRAL-ERN MD INTO NJ AND THE DELMARVA AREA THROUGH 22Z. FARTHER N ACROSS NY...WEAKER DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS CENTRAL NY WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MULTI-CELL ACTIVITY...WHILE STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS ERN NY INTO NJ SUPPORTS SUPERCELLS. HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH ALL OF THESE STORMS. STORMS ACROSS SERN NY WILL MOVE INTO WRN CT AND WRN LONG ISLAND BETWEEN 21-22Z AND MAY POSE A SEVERE THREAT...BUT SMALL AREAL COVERAGE AND A MORE STABLE AIR MASS NWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE THE ISSUANCE OF A NEW WW TO THE EAST OF WW 367. ..PETERS.. 06/01/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...AKQ...BUF...CTP...LWX...RNK... 37567506 37567762 37597880 38137937 39887874 42477762 44007705 43997271 41637364 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 1 20:59:59 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 01 Jun 2004 15:59:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406012100.i51Kxwj00356@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 012056 SWOMCD SPC MCD 012056 PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-VAZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-012130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1040 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0356 PM CDT TUE JUN 01 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN OH/CENTRAL-ERN KY/WV/SWRN PA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 370... VALID 012056Z - 012130Z DAMAGING WIND THREAT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EWD OF WW 370 IN THE NEXT 30-60 MINUTES AFFECTING MUCH OF WV AND SWRN VA...WARRANTING THE ISSUANCE OF A NEW WW SHORTLY. FAST MOVING BOW ECHO /EWD AT 40-50 KT/ ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL OH INTO CENTRAL-ERN KY WILL EXIT WW 370 BETWEEN 2130-22Z. GIVEN WELL ORGANIZED BOW ECHO ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND BAND OF 60 KT WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW...NEW WW WILL BE ISSUED SOON TO THE EAST OF WW 370. ..PETERS.. 06/01/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RNK...PBZ...RLX...CLE...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH... 36748722 40758393 40737972 39577950 38407975 37328107 36668317  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 1 21:32:08 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 01 Jun 2004 16:32:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406012132.i51LW3j26841@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 012128 SWOMCD SPC MCD 012127 FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-012300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1041 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0427 PM CDT TUE JUN 01 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LA/SRN AL/SRN MS/SRN GA/NRN FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 365...368... VALID 012127Z - 012300Z CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT REMAINING VALID PORTIONS OF SEVERE WW 365 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 22Z. CONTINUE SEVERE WW 368 ACROSS NRN FL/SE GA. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS AIRMASS REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE ACROSS SRN GA/NRN FL...WITH MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 35-45 KTS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STORM ORGANIZATION...WITH DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL REMAINING POSSIBLE ACROSS WW 368. FURTHER WEST...TSTM CLUSTERS HAVE PUSHED EFFECTIVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SUFFICIENTLY OFFSHORE ACROSS MUCH OF WW 365...SUGGESTING END TO SEVERE THREAT REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON. ONE EXCEPTION FOR CONTINUAL REGENERATION OF TSTMS/ISOLD SEVERE WILL BE ALONG S/SW PROPAGATING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/MESOSCALE COLD POOL ACROSS SRN LA...TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED IN THIS REGION. ..GUYER.. 06/01/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...TBW...JAX...TAE...FFC...BMX...MOB...LIX...LCH... 29488478 31448235 31457883 29488128 31818186 29678462 29739336 30919212 30808642 31898539 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 1 22:07:49 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 01 Jun 2004 17:07:49 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406012207.i51M7kj25047@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 012204 SWOMCD SPC MCD 012204 TXZ000-OKZ000-012330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1042 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0504 PM CDT TUE JUN 01 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX/SE OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 012204Z - 012330Z TSTM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS ERN TX AND POSSIBLY SRN OK EARLY THIS EVENING. WW WILL BE ISSUED SOON. SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING SEWD ACROSS SRN OK/NRN TX WILL SPREAD FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ACROSS ERN TX/SRN OK EARLY THIS EVENING. AS SUCH...SEVERE TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/PROPAGATE EWD INTO STRONG INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN TX -- ALONG REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY -- CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPES IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG AND MINIMAL CINH. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50 KTS WILL SUPPORT THREAT OF SUPERCELLS...WITH VERY LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS/ISOLATED TORNADOES. SUPPORTED BY INCREASING S/SW LOW LEVEL JET THIS EVENING...TSTMS MAY CONGEAL AND/OR EXPAND NEWD ACROSS NE TX/SE OK. ..GUYER.. 06/01/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...OUN... 33909708 34219562 33219504 31119540 30809657 31139732 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 2 03:06:16 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 01 Jun 2004 22:06:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406020306.i5236Bj23587@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 020135 SWOMCD SPC MCD 020134 KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-020230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1046 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0834 PM CDT TUE JUN 01 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CNTRL TX CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 371...373... VALID 020134Z - 020230Z ...POTENTIALLY DAMAGING CLUSTER OF SUPERCELLS WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE METROPLEX THIS EVENING... INTENSE ELONGATED BAND OF SUPERCELLS IS MOVING SEWD INTO THE METROPLEX AS COLD POOL BEGINS TO SURGE SWD ACROSS NCNTRL TX. THIS ACTIVITY IS DRIVING INTO A VERY MOIST/DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG ERN EDGE OF CAP. ALTHOUGH LLJ IS NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY THIS EVENING...SSWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW JUST OFF THE SURFACE AND STRONG VEERING PROFILES FAVOR LONG LIVED SUPERCELLS THAT SHOULD PROPAGATE ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF TX INTO PORTIONS OF ERN TX LATE THIS EVENING. VERY LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...WITH AN INCREASING THREAT FOR DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. ..DARROW.. 06/02/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX... 38098919 38898712 38878496 38288326 36958386 36908703  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 2 03:47:34 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 01 Jun 2004 22:47:34 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406020347.i523lSj11224@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 020346 SWOMCD SPC MCD 020345 MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-020445- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1047 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1045 PM CDT TUE JUN 01 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...EAST TX...LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 374... VALID 020345Z - 020445Z ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED TO INCLUDE MUCH OF LA... DEVELOPING MCS IS SURGING SEWD AT 40-50KT ACROSS NERN TX WITH LEADING EDGE OF STRONGEST ACTIVITY NOW EXTENDING FROM WOOD COUNTY...ARCING SWWD INTO NAVARRO COUNTY. EXPANDING PRECIPITATION SHIELD IN THE WAKE OF THE SQUALL LINE SUGGESTS THIS COMPLEX WILL MAINTAIN ITS FORWARD PROPAGATION ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF WW INTO NWRN LA BY 06Z. WW WILL BE ISSUED DOWNSTREAM SHORTLY. ..DARROW.. 06/02/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD... 33349533 32689317 31389076 30269154 31389546 32209717 32709575 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 2 06:36:01 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 02 Jun 2004 01:36:01 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406020635.i526Ztj21053@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 020635 SWOMCD SPC MCD 020634 LAZ000-TXZ000-020830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1048 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0134 AM CDT WED JUN 02 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...EAST TX AND LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 374...375... VALID 020634Z - 020830Z SEVERE BOW ECHO MOVING ESEWD ABOUT 50KT SHOULD CONTINUE TO CROSS MUCH OF NRN AND CNTRL LA THROUGH 08Z/3AM CDT. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP ATOP MCS COLD POOL ACROSS TX BUT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ISOLD. MATURE LINEAR MCS WITH LEADING LINE/TRAILING STRATIFORM FORMATION AND WELL DEVELOPED MESOHIGH EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE OCCASIONAL DAMAGING WINDS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL PARISHES OF NRN LA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. FAVORABLE MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT INCLUDES ABUNDANT DOWNSTREAM MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AS WELL AS 40-50KT REAR INFLOW JET AND STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE RISES IN THE WAKE OF THE LINE. GIVEN THESE INGREDIENTS...IT APPEARS THAT SEVERE WIND POTENTIAL MAY EXTEND SEWD OF TSTM WATCH 375 AND A NEW WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED ACROSS PARTS OF SERN LA BEFORE 09Z/4AM CDT. ..CARBIN.. 06/02/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD... 30049193 30579385 31099804 33279807 32729383 32159190 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 2 10:46:59 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 02 Jun 2004 05:46:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406021046.i52Akrj05974@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 021046 SWOMCD SPC MCD 021045 MSZ000-LAZ000-021245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1049 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0545 AM CDT WED JUN 02 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LA/SRN MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 376... VALID 021045Z - 021245Z LARGE BOWED SQUALL LINE WAS MOVING EAST ACROSS SERN LA AND SRN MS AT ABOUT 40KT. CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY INTENSIFIED ALONG THE OUTFLOW MOVING INTO SERN LA AND AIRMASS IN THIS AREA REMAINS VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE. FARTHER NORTH...ACROSS MS...AIRMASS WAS A SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE. HOWEVER...STRONG MID LEVEL REAR INFLOW JET OF 50-60KT WAS NOTED ON WINNFIELD PROFILER AND WAS MOVING INTO THIS REGION. PRIMARY THREAT ALONG THE LINE WILL REMAIN DAMAGING WINDS. AT CURRENT MOTION...STORMS SHOULD REACH ERN EDGE OF SVR TSTM WATCH 376 SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. INTENSITY TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AND A NEW WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IF STORM ORGANIZATION AND STRENGTH IS MAINTAINED. ..CARBIN.. 06/02/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV... 29998915 30009185 32719194 32718921 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 2 12:42:30 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 02 Jun 2004 07:42:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406021242.i52CgOj03894@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 021241 SWOMCD SPC MCD 021241 ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-021415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1050 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0741 AM CDT WED JUN 02 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MS/AL...WRN FL PNHDL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 021241Z - 021415Z BROKEN SQUALL LINE EXTENDS FROM CNTRL MS ACROSS THE MS DELTA THIS MORNING WITH LOCALLY INTENSE UPDRAFTS LIKELY PRODUCING 25-35KT WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL ALONG WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. A STRONG MCV/MID LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BEEN GENERATED IN THE WAKE OF THE OVERNIGHT MCS AND WAS TRACKING ACROSS CNTRL MS ATTM. MARGINAL DOWNSTREAM INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR BASED ON LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL DATA SUGGEST ONLY LIMITED SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL AND WATCH 376 WILL EXPIRE AT 8AM CDT/13Z. A NEW WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IN ANOTHER HOUR OR SO AS DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION GETS UNDERWAY AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCV MOVES EAST ACROSS AL AND THE WRN FL PNHDL. ..CARBIN.. 06/02/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX... 30258615 30078875 30038923 31268914 32048896 32688917 32868754 32818586 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 2 15:47:03 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 02 Jun 2004 10:47:03 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406021546.i52Fkvj03056@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 021546 SWOMCD SPC MCD 021545 PAZ000-NYZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-021745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1051 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1045 AM CDT WED JUN 02 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...E CNTRL IND...CNTRL AND NRN OH...PA...SRN NY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 021545Z - 021745Z SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. A WW MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON. LATE THIS MORNING A SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM ERN LOWER MI SWWD THROUGH NRN IND AND NRN IL. ANOTHER BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE LOW IN WRN LAKE ERIE EWD THROUGH WRN AND CNTRL NY. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS SUBSTANTIAL HEATING WILL OCCUR IN MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S AND WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT MLCAPE TO AOB 1000 J/KG. A COUPLE OF MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA ARE OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...ONE OVER NW IND AND ANOTHER OVER LAKE ERIE. ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES...WEAK CAP...CONVERGENCE ALONG LAKE BREEZES...SURFACE BOUNDARIES AND OROGRAPHIC FORCING WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED STORMS INTO THE AFTERNOON. A 40-50 KT MID LEVEL JET ON SRN PERIPHERY OF A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE KINEMATIC PROFILES AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR STORMS TO ORGANIZE WITHIN UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW REGIME. ..DIAL.. 06/02/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND... 39588560 40118595 41018507 41378171 42547583 40297537 39757740 39758073 39598384 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 2 16:27:16 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 02 Jun 2004 11:27:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406021627.i52GR9j30125@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 021626 SWOMCD SPC MCD 021626 TXZ000-021830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1052 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1126 AM CDT WED JUN 02 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SE...CNTRL THROUGH NW TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 021626Z - 021830Z SE THROUGH CNTRL AND NW TX ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION. SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL...ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. A WW WILL BE NEEDED ONCE INITIATION SEEMS IMMINENT. LATE THIS MORNING A LARGE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM THE SWRN GULF OF MEXICO NWWD THROUGH SE TX NEAR HOUSTON...CNTRL TX AND INTO NW TX JUST W OF MINERAL WELLS. THE ATMOSPHERE IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE HEATING CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE FROM 3000 TO 3500 J/KG. MID LEVEL FLOW IS RELATIVELY WEAK AND GENERALLY NWLY AOB 20 KT. HOWEVER... SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY VEERING TO NWLY AT 6 KM IS RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS INCREASING IN VICINITY OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. AS CAP CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...A FEW STORMS MAY INITIATE WITHIN ZONE OF LOW LEVEL FORCING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. ..DIAL.. 06/02/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT... 28919528 29439652 30609820 33299971 33759881 32829775 31279613 29889420 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 2 16:51:49 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 02 Jun 2004 11:51:49 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406021651.i52Gpgj14619@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 021651 SWOMCD SPC MCD 021650 OKZ000-KSZ000-021815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1053 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1150 AM CDT WED JUN 02 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN KS THROUGH CNTR AND ERN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 377... VALID 021650Z - 021815Z STORMS CURRENTLY OVER SRN KS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING SEWD INTO CNTRL AND ERN OK THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. A NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FARTHER SEWD FOR PARTS OF CNTRL AND ERN OK. LATE THIS MORNING AN MCS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS OVER S CNTRL KS IS MOVING SEWD AT 40 KT TOWARD NRN OK. THE STORMS HAVE PREVIOUSLY BEEN ELEVATED. HOWEVER...RECENT REPORTS SUGGEST ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE NOW REACHING THE SURFACE...AND STORMS APPEAR TO HAVE ORGANIZED A COLD POOL WITH FORWARD PROPAGATION ALONG THE SRN FLANKS. AN E-W SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS NRN OK. S OF THIS BOUNDARY THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS THE CAP WEAKENING IN VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY. NEW STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEADING CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCS AS IT CONTINUES SEWD TOWARD STRONGER INSTABILITY AND WEAKER CAP. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES. ..DIAL.. 06/02/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA... 34909747 36049912 37480069 37789891 36549484 35399523 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 2 17:03:29 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 02 Jun 2004 12:03:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406021703.i52H3Mj22371@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 021626 SWOMCD SPC MCD 021626 TXZ000-021830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1052 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1126 AM CDT WED JUN 02 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SE...CNTRL THROUGH NW TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 021626Z - 021830Z SE THROUGH CNTRL AND NW TX ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION. SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL...ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. A WW WILL BE NEEDED ONCE INITIATION SEEMS IMMINENT. LATE THIS MORNING A LARGE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM THE SWRN GULF OF MEXICO NWWD THROUGH SE TX NEAR HOUSTON...CNTRL TX AND INTO NW TX JUST W OF MINERAL WELLS. THE ATMOSPHERE IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE HEATING CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE FROM 3000 TO 3500 J/KG. MID LEVEL FLOW IS RELATIVELY WEAK AND GENERALLY NWLY AOB 20 KT. HOWEVER... SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY VEERING TO NWLY AT 6 KM IS RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS INCREASING IN VICINITY OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. AS CAP CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...A FEW STORMS MAY INITIATE WITHIN ZONE OF LOW LEVEL FORCING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. ..DIAL.. 06/02/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT... 28919528 29439652 30609820 33299971 33759881 32829775 31279613 29889420  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 2 17:14:59 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 02 Jun 2004 12:14:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406021714.i52HEvj29883@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 021651 SWOMCD SPC MCD 021650 OKZ000-KSZ000-021815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1053 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1150 AM CDT WED JUN 02 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN KS THROUGH CNTR AND ERN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 377... VALID 021650Z - 021815Z STORMS CURRENTLY OVER SRN KS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING SEWD INTO CNTRL AND ERN OK THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. A NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FARTHER SEWD FOR PARTS OF CNTRL AND ERN OK. LATE THIS MORNING AN MCS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS OVER S CNTRL KS IS MOVING SEWD AT 40 KT TOWARD NRN OK. THE STORMS HAVE PREVIOUSLY BEEN ELEVATED. HOWEVER...RECENT REPORTS SUGGEST ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE NOW REACHING THE SURFACE...AND STORMS APPEAR TO HAVE ORGANIZED A COLD POOL WITH FORWARD PROPAGATION ALONG THE SRN FLANKS. AN E-W SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS NRN OK. S OF THIS BOUNDARY THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS THE CAP WEAKENING IN VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY. NEW STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEADING CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCS AS IT CONTINUES SEWD TOWARD STRONGER INSTABILITY AND WEAKER CAP. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES. ..DIAL.. 06/02/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA... 34909747 36049912 37480069 37789891 36549484 35399523  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 2 17:15:19 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 02 Jun 2004 12:15:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406021715.i52HFCj30539@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 021714 SWOMCD SPC MCD 021714 GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-021845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1054 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1214 PM CDT WED JUN 02 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SE AL/SRN GA/FL PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 021714Z - 021845Z DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAY INCREASE ACROSS SE AL/SRN GA/FL PANHANDLE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. IN SPITE OF MODEST WIND PROFILES...APPEARS GULF COAST MCV/DEVELOPING COLD POOL WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE CONVECTION EWD AT 35-40 KTS ACROSS SE AL/SRN GA/FL PANHANDLE. AIRMASS AHEAD OF CONVECTIVE LINE IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE...WITH 80F TEMPERATURES/70F DEWPOINTS SUPPORTING MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG AND MODEST LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. GIVEN CONTINUAL DOWNSTREAM DESTABILIZATION AND COLD POOL/LINEAR NATURE OF CONVECTION...THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS MAY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH AT LEAST MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL POSSIBLE AS WELL. ..GUYER.. 06/02/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB... 30348675 31138668 32458628 32458454 32028299 30358279 29648335 29848580 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 2 17:43:36 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 02 Jun 2004 12:43:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406021743.i52HhTj17346@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 021742 SWOMCD SPC MCD 021742 TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-021945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1055 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1242 PM CDT WED JUN 02 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AR AND EXTREME SRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 021742Z - 021945Z STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS NRN AR THIS AFTERNOON. SUPERCELLS WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. A WW MAY BE NEEDED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. EARLY THIS AFTERNOON A QUASISTATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS NRN AR FROM NEAR SPRINGDALE EWD INTO THE BOOTHILL OF SE MO. THE ATMOSPHERE IN VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 70...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE HEATING CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE FROM 2500 TO 3000 J/KG. AS CAP CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND SPREAD SEWD. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS WEAK. HOWEVER...A BAND OF 30 TO 40 KT WNWLY MID LEVEL FLOW ON SRN PERIPHERY OF A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN SHEAR THROUGH A DEEPER LAYER SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. ..DIAL.. 06/02/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...TSA... 34789220 34689427 35349430 36189200 36598990 35708988 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 2 18:41:29 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 02 Jun 2004 13:41:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406021841.i52IfLj25639@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 021840 SWOMCD SPC MCD 021840 TXZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-022115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1056 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0140 PM CDT WED JUN 02 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...E CNTRL THROUGH SE CO...NERN NM AND THE WRN OK AND TX PANHANDLES CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 021840Z - 022115Z HIGH BASED CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CO AND NM EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREATS. HOWEVER...ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS STORMS DEVELOP FARTHER EWD INTO THE MOIST AXIS. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT A WW MIGHT BE NEEDED BY 20-21Z. EARLY THIS AFTERNOON HIGH BASED CONVECTION WAS OBSERVED DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NERN NM INTO S CNTRL CO. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS AND A THERMAL LOW OVER THE SW U.S. HAS ESTABLISHED A LOW LEVEL ELY UPSLOPE COMPONENT ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAKENING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING SWWD THROUGH SWRN KS INTO THE OK PANHANDLE. S OF THIS BOUNDARY AN AXIS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL CONTINUE ADVECTING WWD. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL SUPPORT AN AXIS OF MLCAPE FROM 1000 TO 2000 J/KG FROM SERN CO THROUGH NERN NM INTO THE TX/OK PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD INTENSIFY AS THEY INTERCEPT THE INSTABILITY AXIS. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREATS. ..DIAL.. 06/02/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AMA...PUB...ABQ... 35720412 37180421 38320412 37740251 36050195 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 2 19:36:40 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 02 Jun 2004 14:36:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406021936.i52JaWj29549@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 021935 SWOMCD SPC MCD 021935 ARZ000-OKZ000-022130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1057 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0235 PM CDT WED JUN 02 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL OK THROUGH NW AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 378... VALID 021935Z - 022130Z WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND WITH POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIKELY NEXT COUPLE HOURS AS LINEAR MCS MOVES SEWD THROUGH CNTRL AND ERN OK. LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LINE. A NEW WW IS BEING CONSIDERED FOR PARTS OF SRN AND WRN OK. THIS AFTERNOON A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS FROM NE OK JUST NW OF TULSA SWWD THROUGH JUST NW OF OKLAHOMA CITY AND IS MOVING SEWD AT AROUND 30 KT. THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CONVECTION HAS MERGED WITH AN E-W STATIONARY FRONT AND EXTENDS WWD THROUGH WRN OK. THE ATMOSPHERE S OF THIS BOUNDARY REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE FROM 3000 TO 3500 J/KG AND WITH RELATIVELY WEAK CAP FROM CNTRL THROUGH ERN OK. THE 40 KT SLY STORM RELATIVE FLOW AND WEAK CAP IN THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD MAINTAIN A FORWARD PROPAGATING LINE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 80 MPH HAVE BEEN REPORTED AND WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES SEWD THROUGH THE AXIS OF STRONG INSTABILITY NEXT 2-3 HOURS. STORMS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO INITIATE ALONG WRN PORTION OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS WRN OK...MOIST LIKELY DUE TO A STRONGER CAP IN THIS AREA. HOWEVER...AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO WARM...INITIATION AND BACKBUILDING FARTHER W WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY PROBABLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. OTHER STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING FARTHER E ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT FROM E CNTRL OK THROUGH NW AR. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY ALSO. DUE TO THE SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THIS ACTIVITY...VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH RATES IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES PER HOUR MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY. ..DIAL.. 06/02/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...OUN... 35009844 35639906 35939735 36619552 36419446 35829350 34889413 34729658 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 2 20:23:16 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 02 Jun 2004 15:23:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406022023.i52KN8j28514@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 022020 SWOMCD SPC MCD 022019 TXZ000-022215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1058 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0319 PM CDT WED JUN 02 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...W AND SW TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 022019Z - 022215Z WW MAY BE NEEDED SOON. CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE DRYLINE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS IT SPREADS EWD. SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. THIS AFTERNOON THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE E OF DRYLINE ACROSS W TX WITH MLCAPE FROM 2500 TO 3500 J/KG. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS INCREASING ALONG THE DRYLINE ACROSS W TX AND DEEP CONVECTION APPEARS IMMINENT. OTHER STORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SW TX. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS THEY SPREAD EWD INTO THE AXIS OF STRONGER INSTABILITY. MID LEVEL FLOW IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...GENERALLY AOB 25 KT. HOWEVER...SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERING TO WNWLY AOA 6 KM IS SUPPORTING DEEP SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. ..DIAL.. 06/02/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF... 32460217 34780187 34640024 33419991 30700144 30310267 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 2 20:31:18 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 02 Jun 2004 15:31:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406022031.i52KVBj01829@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 022030 SWOMCD SPC MCD 022029 WVZ000-VAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-OHZ000-ARZ000-022200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1059 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0329 PM CDT WED JUN 02 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...TN/ERN KY/WV/WRN VA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 022029Z - 022200Z LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...DAYTIME HEATING/SWLY MOISTURE FEED IS SUPPORTING MLCAPE FROM 500-1000 J/KG ACROSS ERN KY...TO 2000 J/KG ACROSS WRN TN PER LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES/DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 35 KTS WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS...WITH ATTENDANT LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND HAZARDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ..GUYER.. 06/02/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG... 36098961 37148611 38168365 39078096 38758062 38058043 37008094 36288272 35728572 35458746 35218888 35848967 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 2 21:51:21 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 02 Jun 2004 16:51:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406022151.i52LpCj24006@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 022149 SWOMCD SPC MCD 022149 ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-022245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1060 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0449 PM CDT WED JUN 02 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...AR...SRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 379...380... VALID 022149Z - 022245Z ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED ACROSS PORTIONS OF AR INTO NERN TX WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR... GRADUALLY EXPANDING MCS CONTINUES TO MATURE OVER ERN OK INTO NWRN AR. AN EXTENSIVE POST SQUALL LINE PRECIPITATION SHIELD AND A WELL DEFINED ZONE OF PRESSURE RISES SHOULD ALLOW MCS TO CONTINUE PROPAGATING SEWD INTO THE ARKLATEX OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SEVERE WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN MEASURED AS SEVERAL MESONET LOCATIONS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST CORES. WW WILL BE ISSUED SOON. ..DARROW.. 06/02/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... 34549771 34509621 35009456 35909318 34999154 33849206 33099422 34059749 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 2 23:10:58 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 02 Jun 2004 18:10:58 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406022310.i52NAoj05321@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 022309 SWOMCD SPC MCD 022308 TXZ000-030015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1061 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0608 PM CDT WED JUN 02 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...TX PANHANDLE/SOUTH PLAINS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 381...383... VALID 022308Z - 030015Z ...NUMEROUS SUPERCELL CLUSTERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE PANHANDLE... NELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS INCREASING ACROSS THE NERN TX PANHANDLE IN THE WAKE OF OK MCS. HYBRID CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW/FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM JACKSON COUNTY OK...NWWD TO DALLAM COUNTY TX. STRONG HEATING AND MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS OVER THE TX PANHANDLE HAVE ALSO AIDED WWD PUSH TO DRY LINE INTO NERN NM. RELATIVELY HIGH BASED SUPERCELL ACTIVITY MAY INTERACT WITH VARIOUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND INCREASING ELY LOW LEVEL COMPONENT...WITH TIME LOWERING CLOUD BASES AND POSSIBLY ENHANCING THE TORNADIC POTENTIAL AS THE EVENING CONTINUES. ..DARROW.. 06/02/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF... 32630212 34610214 36410280 36450131 35250001 33160041 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 2 23:30:55 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 02 Jun 2004 18:30:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406022330.i52NUkj16103@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 022328 SWOMCD SPC MCD 022327 KSZ000-COZ000-030100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1062 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0627 PM CDT WED JUN 02 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO/WRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 022327Z - 030100Z ISOLD SUPERCELLS WITH PRIMARILY LARGE HAIL THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS ERN CO/FAR WRN KS EARLY THIS EVENING. DEVELOPMENT NORTH OF WW 381 IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLD...THUS LIKELY PRECLUDING NECESSITY FOR WW. POST-FRONTAL E/SE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISOLD SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS ERN CO/FAR WRN KS THIS EVENING. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS PORTRAYS MUCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG IN CORRIDOR SOUTH OF I-70. SUPERCELL MODE SUPPORTED BY VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 50-65 KTS -- PER PLT/ADA/RWD PROFILERS -- WITH E/SE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IN PLACE BENEATH 50 KT MID LEVEL W/NW FLOW. LARGE HAIL /AND POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS/ WILL EXIST WITH MOST VIGOROUS ACTIVITY AS STORMS DEVELOP/PROPAGATE SEWD ACROSS ERN CO/FAR WRN KS. ..GUYER.. 06/02/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU... 39430336 39630276 39250153 38060103 37730102 37500194 37490329 38120360 38890355 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 3 00:13:04 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 02 Jun 2004 19:13:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406030012.i530Cuj06701@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 030012 SWOMCD SPC MCD 030011 TXZ000-OKZ000-030145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1063 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0711 PM CDT WED JUN 02 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN TX...SWRN OK CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 381...383...387... VALID 030011Z - 030145Z ...VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF NWRN TX INTO SWRN OK...IN ADDITION TO THE THREATS OF STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL... SERN OK MCS HAS FORCED AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTO NWRN TX JUST SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER...WHERE IT APPEARS TO BE STALLING AHEAD OF SEWD-MOVING LARGE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE. REGIONAL TRENDS SUGGEST ANOTHER EMERGING MCS WILL EXPAND AND MOVE SEWD ALONG EXISTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS NWRN TX TOWARD THE DALLAS/FT WORTH METROPLEX. VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREATS WELL INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS. ..DARROW.. 06/03/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA... 35249975 34409848 33439670 32629714 33069891 34360043 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 3 00:19:24 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 02 Jun 2004 19:19:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406030019.i530JMj10002@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 030018 SWOMCD SPC MCD 030018 GAZ000-FLZ000-030115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1064 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0718 PM CDT WED JUN 02 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SE GA/NRN FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 382... VALID 030018Z - 030115Z LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING/SFC BASED INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE A DIMINISHING SEVERE TREND ACROSS SRN GA/NRN FL REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. IF TRENDS CONTINUE...WW 382 WILL LIKELY BE CANCELLED PRIOR TO 02Z EXPIRATION. MCS/CONVECTIVE COMPLEX HAS EFFECTIVELY STABILIZED BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS MUCH OF WW 382...ALTHOUGH SHORT TERM SEVERE THREAT DOES PERSIST INVOF COASTAL SE GA/NE FL WHERE SBCAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG REMAINS ALONG/AHEAD OF CONVECTIVE CLUSTER. LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING/DIABATIC HEATING IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER PROMOTE DIMINISHING SEVERE THREAT THIS EVENING. ..GUYER.. 06/03/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX... 29568253 31418203 31308130 29548168 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 3 00:29:13 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 02 Jun 2004 19:29:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406030029.i530T5j15300@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 030028 SWOMCD SPC MCD 030028 LAZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-030200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1065 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0728 PM CDT WED JUN 02 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AR...NRN LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 385... VALID 030028Z - 030200Z LARGE...INTENSE BOW ECHO CONTINUES TO SURGE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHWEST AR AND NORTHEAST TX. NEW WW WILL BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT HOUR OVER NORTHERN LA AND EAST TX. SEVERE MCS IS RACING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHWEST AR AND NORTHEAST TX AT OVER 40 KNOTS. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN A RISK OF WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. PRESENT TRENDS SUGGEST THAT STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SHV AREA BY 02Z...AND AEX BY 04Z. NEW WW WILL BE REQUIRED WITHIN THE HOUR FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN LA AND PORTIONS OF EAST TX. ..HART.. 06/03/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV... 33049492 33219445 33399394 33639356 34129298 33649217 32999143 32399123 31499148 31059224 31089299 31419396 31939457 32629497 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 3 01:12:24 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 02 Jun 2004 20:12:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406030112.i531CGj05483@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 030110 SWOMCD SPC MCD 030110 TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-030215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1066 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0810 PM CDT WED JUN 02 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN AR...WRN/MIDDLE TN...NRN MS/NWRN AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 384...386... VALID 030110Z - 030215Z SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...ISOLATED SEVERE...WILL PROPAGATE SEWD ACROSS REMAINDER OF WRN/MIDDLE TN INTO NRN PORTIONS OF MS/AL. THIS ACTIVITY HAS HAD TROUBLE ORGANIZING ALONG FRONTAL ZONE WITH MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY MAINTAINING MULTI CELL CHARACTERISTICS. LARGE HAIL OR PERHAPS LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS CONVECTION FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ..DARROW.. 06/03/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...OHX...HUN...MEG... 35099073 36538757 35918376 34438902 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 3 03:22:46 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 02 Jun 2004 22:22:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406030322.i533Mcj09757@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 030322 SWOMCD SPC MCD 030321 MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-030415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1067 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1021 PM CDT WED JUN 02 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX...LA...SWRN MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 388... VALID 030321Z - 030415Z ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SERN TX ACROSS LA INTO SWRN MS SHORTLY... SEVERE MCS CONTINUES TO SURGE SEWD AT ROUGHLY 40KT ACROSS SERN TX AND LA. LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER ACTIVITY SHOULD EXIT SRN MOST PORTIONS OF WW388 AROUND 04Z...THUS THE NEED TO EXTEND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH DOWNSTREAM TO ACCOUNT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ..DARROW.. 06/03/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD... 31649630 31299461 31339352 31809243 33139188 32669074 30209117 29569416 30829620 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 3 06:29:16 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 03 Jun 2004 01:29:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406030629.i536TAj02188@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 030628 SWOMCD SPC MCD 030628 LAZ000-MSZ000-TXZ000-030800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1068 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0128 AM CDT THU JUN 03 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...EAST TX...SRN LA...SRN MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 388...389... VALID 030628Z - 030800Z LEADING LARGE SCALE BOW ECHO COMPLEX CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST AT 20-30KT INTO LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE/INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS THE LWR MS VLY/MS DELTA REGION. WHILE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS REMAIN PSBL ALONG THE ARC OF DEEP CONVECTION... OVERALL WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG MUCH OF THE BOW AS THE LINE DRIFTS SOUTH OF THE STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW. ADDITIONAL LINES/CLUSTERS OF TSTMS DEVELOP UPSTREAM FROM THE LARGER BOW COMPLEX...ACROSS AREAS OF NCNTRL/CNTRL TX. THIS ACTVITY WAS FORMING ATOP THE TRAILING COLD POOL LEFT IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER DEEP CONVECTION. LOW LEVEL ASCENT AND INSTABILITY FLUX INTO THESE REGIONS AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR WIND AND LARGE HAIL WITH THIS ACTIVITY. NO ADDITIONAL WATCHES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME. ..CARBIN.. 06/03/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX... 33169045 31909040 31918998 29759002 28599498 30839497 31509172 33119055 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 3 14:52:28 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 03 Jun 2004 09:52:28 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406031452.i53EqI806217@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 031451 SWOMCD SPC MCD 031451 FLZ000-GAZ000-031715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1069 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0951 AM CDT THU JUN 03 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN GA THROUGH NRN FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 031451Z - 031715Z STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. THIS MORNING A LINE OF MULTICELL STORMS EXTENDS FROM E CNTRL AL SWWD THROUGH THE WRN FL PANHANDLE. DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS LINE...HEATING OF THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION INTO THE AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK. HOWEVER...THE STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS 65-70 WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG THE ZONE OF CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW AS IT MOVES EWD INTO INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR. OTHER MORE WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LINE. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE WEAK AND SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELLS. HOWEVER...THE MOB VWP DOES SUGGEST A BAND OF 30-40 KT WLY FLOW ON SRN PERIPHERY OF AN MCV IN THE 1 TO 5 KM LAYER IMPINGING ON THE LINE. DAMAGING WIND SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT...ESPECIALLY AS STORMS INTENSIFY ALONG THE LINE. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS DEVELOPING FARTHER EAST IN WARM SECTOR. ..DIAL.. 06/03/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...MLB...TBW...JAX...FFC...TAE... 32508462 32758316 31988137 30698157 28958116 28488232 30028360 29758495 30018543 31048497 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 3 16:48:27 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 03 Jun 2004 11:48:27 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406031648.i53GmH825653@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 031646 SWOMCD SPC MCD 031645 NCZ000-SCZ000-031845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1070 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1145 AM CDT THU JUN 03 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...COASTAL NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 031645Z - 031845Z THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL POSSIBLE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON AS CLUSTER OF STORMS DEVELOP NEWD. THREAT IS CONFINED TO A RELATIVELY SMALL AREA...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. EARLY THIS AFTERNOON A CLUSTER OF STORMS WAS OBSERVED MOVING NEWD THROUGH SERN SC. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COASTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE SC COAST NEWD THROUGH EXTREME ERN NC. BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS ALONG AND E OF THIS BOUNDARY ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S OVER COASTAL NC. STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL SUPPORT DESTABILIZATION WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT MAY BEGIN TO SHIFT NWD SLIGHTLY AS THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING NEWD ALONG THE NC COAST IN VICINITY OF THIS FEATURE. MOSTLY MULTICELL CONVECTION CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY SOME HAIL SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT. ..DIAL.. 06/03/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM... 33977792 33957876 34527856 35217594 34687596  From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 3 18:25:19 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 03 Jun 2004 13:25:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406031825.i53IPI829192@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 031824 SWOMCD SPC MCD 031824 ALZ000-MSZ000-TNZ000-ARZ000-032030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1071 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0124 PM CDT THU JUN 03 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MS THROUGH NW AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 031824Z - 032030Z THREAT FOR MAINLY ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST WITH CLUSTER OF STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS NRN MS AND SPREADING EWD INTO NW AL. OVERALL THREAT APPEARS MARGINAL...BUT AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. THIS AFTERNOON A NEAR STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS FROM SRN TN SWWD THROUGH NW MS AND SRN AR. S OF THIS BOUNDARY THE ATMOSPHERE IS DESTABILIZING ACROSS NRN MS AND NWRN AL IN WAKE OF MORNING CONVECTION . MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE MARGINAL...BUT SURFACE DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 AND SURFACE HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. THE WIND PROFILER DATA FROM NE MS SHOW WEAK FLOW THROUGH 3 KM AND WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR THROUGH 6 KM. A BAND OF STRONGER FLOW ON SRN PERIPHERY OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY SPREAD INTO NRN MS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE COLDER AIR...STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW AND STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE POST FRONTAL REGIME. GIVEN MARGINAL LAPSE RATES...MODEST INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR...LOOSELY ORGANIZED MULTICELLS SHOULD REMAIN THE DOMINANT MODE OF CONVECTION. ..DIAL.. 06/03/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK... 33259048 34169101 35078866 34378753 33368763 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 3 19:09:55 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 03 Jun 2004 14:09:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406031909.i53J9i829282@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 031908 SWOMCD SPC MCD 031907 ALZ000-MSZ000-TNZ000-ARZ000-032030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1072 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0207 PM CDT THU JUN 03 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN GA THROUGH NRN FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 390... VALID 031907Z - 032030Z THREAT FOR MAINLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL WILL CONTINUE NEXT COUPLE HOURS ACROSS SRN GA-NRN FL WITH EWD MOVING SQUALL LINE. SQUALL LINE FROM S CNTRL GA INTO THE ERN FL PANHANDLE IS MOVING EWD AT 35-40 KT. THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE TO THE E OF THE LINE WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. WEAK CAP DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS ACTIVITY AND 25 TO 30 KT UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW IN THE 1 TO 6 KM LAYER IMPINGING ON THE LINE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FORWARD PROPAGATION NEXT FEW HOURS. THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND POSSIBLY HAIL ALSO EXISTS WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY DEVELOPING DOWNSTREAM FROM LINE ON SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES. ..DIAL.. 06/03/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK... 33259048 34169101 35078866 34378753 33368763 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 3 19:43:32 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 03 Jun 2004 14:43:32 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406031943.i53JhL819238@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 031941 SWOMCD SPC MCD 031941 COR FLZ000-GAZ000-032030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1072 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0241 PM CDT THU JUN 03 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN GA THROUGH NRN FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 390... VALID 031941Z - 032030Z CORRECTED FOR WRONG HEADER THREAT FOR MAINLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL WILL CONTINUE NEXT COUPLE HOURS ACROSS SRN GA-NRN FL WITH EWD MOVING SQUALL LINE. SQUALL LINE FROM S CNTRL GA INTO THE ERN FL PANHANDLE IS MOVING EWD AT 35-40 KT. THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE TO THE E OF THE LINE WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. WEAK CAP DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS ACTIVITY AND 25 TO 30 KT UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW IN THE 1 TO 6 KM LAYER IMPINGING ON THE LINE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FORWARD PROPAGATION NEXT FEW HOURS. THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND POSSIBLY HAIL ALSO EXISTS WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY DEVELOPING DOWNSTREAM FROM LINE ON SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES. ..DIAL.. 06/03/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE... 29608434 30038334 30408306 31228309 31148176 30078135 29098172 29398408 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 3 19:49:45 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 03 Jun 2004 14:49:45 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406031949.i53JnY822890@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 031948 SWOMCD SPC MCD 031948 NEZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-WYZ000-032145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1073 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0248 PM CDT THU JUN 03 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SE WY/NEB PANHANDLE/ERN CO/FAR NE NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 031948Z - 032145Z ISOLD SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF SE WY/ERN CO/FAR NE NM AND INTO THE NEB PANHANDLE. WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. HIGH BASED SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO EVOLVE THIS AFTERNOON AS STORMS DEVELOP/PROPAGATE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. 18Z RUC SUGGESTS MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000-1750 J/KG WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF SE WY/ERN CO/FAR NE NM BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. S/SE BOUNDARY LAYER UPSLOPE TRAJECTORIES BENEATH W/NW MID AND UPPER FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-45 KTS OR GREATER... SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL LIKELY MAIN HAZARD OWING TO MAGNITUDE OF SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY...WITH DAMAGING WINDS A POSSIBILITY GIVEN INITIAL DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER PROFILES. HIGH LCLS/LFCS WILL TEND TO LIMIT TORNADO POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH STORMS WILL ENCOUNTER DEEPER MOISTURE AS THEY PROGRESS EWD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. ..GUYER.. 06/03/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...ABQ... 39200530 42590524 42820410 42590224 40650206 37540234 36980305 36340340 36320393 36500503 37500531 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 3 20:31:01 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 03 Jun 2004 15:31:01 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406032030.i53KUo817209@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 032027 SWOMCD SPC MCD 032026 TXZ000-032200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1074 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0326 PM CDT THU JUN 03 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...TX HILL COUNTRY/SCNTRL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 032026Z - 032200Z ISOLD LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING DOWNBURST WIND THREAT MAY DEVELOP REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ORIGINATING FROM MORNING MCS ACROSS W TX WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SEWD ACROSS THE TX HILL COUNTRY. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...AMPLE INSOLATION AND MID/UPPER 80S TEMPERATURES -- COMBINED WITH 60S DEWPOINTS -- ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG. IN ABSENCE OF STRONG BACKGROUND FORCING FOR ASCENT...INITIATION LARGELY CONTINGENT UPON SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE INVOF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MERGERS. MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AMIDST VERY WEAK WIND PROFILES /PER REGIONAL VWPS AND LDB PROFILER/ SUGGEST PULSE-TYPE LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH MOST VIGOROUS DEVELOPMENT. ..GUYER.. 06/03/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT... 30020077 31249760 31509641 30659570 29849578 28829857 28630003 29150041  From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 3 21:32:38 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 03 Jun 2004 16:32:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406032132.i53LWS801919@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 032130 SWOMCD SPC MCD 032129 SDZ000-NEZ000-WYZ000-032300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1075 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0429 PM CDT THU JUN 03 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN WY/SW SD/NW NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 032129Z - 032300Z LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT ACROSS FAR ERN WY/SW SD/NW NEB LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. WW MAY BE REQUIRED SOON. CU/TCU CONTINUE TO DEVELOP FROM NE WY INTO BLACK HILLS REGION OF SD/NRN NEB PANHANDLE. ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND/OR ISOLD SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY TO EVOLVE...WITH MODEST SLY FLOW BENEATH W/NW FLOW ALOFT CONTRIBUTING TO 30-40 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR PER MERRIMAN NEB PROFILER/LATEST RUC GUIDANCE LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE WITH MOST VIGOROUS ACTIVITY OWING TO STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES /8.0C OR GREATER/ AND MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG. WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER /30-40F SFC T-TD SPREADS/ SUGGESTS DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS WELL. INCREASING SLY LOW LEVEL JET THIS EVENING SUGGESTS SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. ..GUYER.. 06/03/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS... 42160455 42900481 44140478 44660423 44660225 44110060 42440070 41910109 42050352 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 3 23:06:50 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 03 Jun 2004 18:06:50 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406032306.i53N6g826876@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 032306 SWOMCD SPC MCD 032305 NEZ000-SDZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-040000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1076 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0605 PM CDT THU JUN 03 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO...WRN KS...WRN NEB...SWRN SD CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 391...393... VALID 032305Z - 040000Z ...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING HAS CONTRIBUTED TO VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS REGION FROM WRN SD...SWD INTO NERN NM. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN THIS REGION AND APPEARS TO BE EXPANDING WITHIN NARROW ZONE OF WEAK UPSLOPE COMPONENT. AS LLJ INCREASES THIS EVENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...THIS ACTIVITY MAY CONGEAL AND BECOME LOOSELY ORGANIZED AS IT PROPAGATES SWD ACROSS WRN NEB/WRN KS. LARGE HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY. ..DARROW.. 06/03/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS... 37680487 41390384 43800315 42660126 37400235 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 3 23:47:36 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 03 Jun 2004 18:47:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406032347.i53NlQ817406@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 032346 SWOMCD SPC MCD 032346 IDZ000-MTZ000-ORZ000-WAZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-040145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1077 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0646 PM CDT THU JUN 03 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN OR/SE WA/ID CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 032346Z - 040145Z ISOLD LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WITH STRONGEST STORMS EARLY THIS EVENING...WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. TSTMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE /WITH POTENTIAL ISOLD SEVERE/ EARLY THIS EVENING ALONG/AHEAD OF PACIFIC NORTHWEST MID/UPPER TROUGH. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...AMPLE INSOLATION HAS CONTRIBUTED TO BROAD AREA OF UPPER 70S/80S TEMPERATURES. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS 2000 J/KG SBCAPE IN AXIS FROM ERN CASCADES OF CNTRL OR NEWD INTO CNTRL ID...WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8.0 C/KM OR GREATER. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30 KTS WILL SUPPORT LARGE HAIL WITH MOST VIGOROUS TSTMS. WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER ALSO SUGGESTS A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT ISOLD NATURE OF ACTIVITY WILL PRECLUDE WW ISSUANCE. ..GUYER.. 06/03/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TFX...PIH...MSO...BOI...LKN...OTX...PDT...REV...MFR... 44292150 45921910 47271552 45231328 43471250 42231419 42041766 41942015 43722174 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 4 01:03:00 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 03 Jun 2004 20:03:00 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406040102.i5412n824494@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 040101 SWOMCD SPC MCD 040101 NMZ000-TXZ000-040230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1078 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0801 PM CDT THU JUN 03 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 040101Z - 040230Z ...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SRN NM... MOIST SELY FLOW HAS FORCED HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL NM. STRONG HEATING HAS AIDED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THIS REGION WHERE SCATTERED SUPERCELLS HAVE RECENTLY EVOLVED FROM TORRANCE COUNTY TO DONA ANA COUNTY. NWLY DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS SUPPORT STORM ROTATION AND ORGANIZATION AS THIS ACTIVITY SPREADS SEWD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ONE NEGATIVE FOR LONG-LIVED MCS EVOLUTION IS THE WEAKER INSTABILITY LOCATED ACROSS SERN NM. IN THE SHORT TERM LARGE HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS CONVECTION UNTIL DIURNAL COOLING DAMPENS UPDRAFT STRENGTH. ..DARROW.. 06/04/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ... 31830733 34630636 34180461 32020501 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 4 09:18:47 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 04 Jun 2004 04:18:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406040918.i549IS807198@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 040916 SWOMCD SPC MCD 040915 OKZ000-KSZ000-041045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1079 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0415 AM CDT FRI JUN 04 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN KS SSEWD INTO CENTRAL OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 040915Z - 041045Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN KS SSEWD INTO NRN/CENTRAL OK...BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO SMALL TO WARRANT A WW. CLUSTER OF STORMS IS MOVING SEWD AT 25-30 KT THROUGH SWRN KS. DESPITE MUCAPES OF ONLY 500-1000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR AT 30 KT...WARM ADVECTION BETWEEN 700-850MB AND STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE LOWER 2-3 KM MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A COUPLE OF STORMS TO PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ISOLATED STORMS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED RECENTLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN/CENTRAL OK IN STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION. THESE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE SLOWLY IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY AHEAD OF STORMS MOVING SEWD OUT OF KS. HOWEVER...VERY WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE MORE THAN AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR TWO. ..IMY.. 06/04/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC... 37229986 38049927 38049824 36829735 35219720 34899835 35239915 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 4 15:51:10 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 04 Jun 2004 10:51:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406041550.i54Fov815143@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 041550 SWOMCD SPC MCD 041549 NCZ000-VAZ000-041745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1080 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1049 AM CDT FRI JUN 04 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN NC THROUGH SRN VA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 041549Z - 041745Z STORMS THAT HAVE PREVIOUSLY BEEN ELEVATED ARE BECOMING SURFACE BASED IN VICINITY OF WARM FRONT ACROSS NRN NC. THIS WOULD SUPPORT AN INCREASING THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE THREAT AREA IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT NWD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NRN NC AND INTO SRN VA INTO THE AFTERNOON. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. LATE THIS MORNING A WARM FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS NC FROM NEAR CAPE HATTERAS WSWWD TO SE OF CHARLOTTE. WIDESPREAD ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS BEEN DEVELOPING THROUGHOUT THE MORNING N OF THIS BOUNDARY. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS MIXING OUT S OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH RESULTING DESTABILIZATION ACROSS CNTRL AND SRN NC. THIS HIGHER THETA-E AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT NWD...AND CONTRIBUTE TO INTENSIFICATION OF STORMS DEVELOPING IN VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT. LOW LEVEL FLOW IS BACKED TO ELY NEAR AND N OF THIS BOUNDARY RESULTING IN 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY AROUND 200 M2/S2. RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S AND LOW TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE CONTRIBUTING TO LOW LCL HEIGHTS. THESE FACTORS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SOME THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY WITH STORMS DEVELOPING NEAR WARM FRONT. ..DIAL.. 06/04/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...RNK... 35157601 35237715 35207832 35308012 36937847 37097642 35937555 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 4 17:05:29 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 04 Jun 2004 12:05:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406041705.i54H5M803661@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 041704 SWOMCD SPC MCD 041703 FLZ000-042000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1081 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1203 PM CDT FRI JUN 04 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...THE FL PENINSULA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 041703Z - 042000Z THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ON GUST FRONT MOVING SWD THROUGH NRN FL AND ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FL PENINSULA WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL THIS AFTERNOON. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THE ATMOSPHERE IS DESTABILIZING ACROSS MOST OF THE FL PENINSULA WITH MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG. LINE OF STORMS EXTENDING FROM NEAR ST AUGUSTINE SWWD TO NEAR CEDAR KEY IS MOVING SEWD. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY ALONG THIS LINE AS THEY DEVELOP SEWD TOWARD STRONGER INSTABILITY. CONVERGENCE MAY BE ENHANCED WHERE THIS BOUNDARY INTERACTS WITH DEVELOPING SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES. OTHER STORMS WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES FARTHER SWD. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORT MOSTLY PULSE AND MULTICELL STORM MODES. WET MICROBURSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. ..DIAL.. 06/04/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX... 26388008 25778107 28268232 29468171 28798092 27558047 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 4 18:47:25 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 04 Jun 2004 13:47:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406041847.i54IlC807157@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 041846 SWOMCD SPC MCD 041846 NDZ000-SDZ000-042045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1082 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0146 PM CDT FRI JUN 04 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN/CENTRAL ND AND SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 041846Z - 042045Z THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE OVER SWRN ND INTO NWRN SD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT ANTICIPATED AFTER 20Z. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS AREA FOR A POSSIBLE WW. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES DEVELOPING TOWERING CU/CB IN FAR SWRN ND/NWRN SD ALONG AN AREA OF FOCUSED CONVERGENCE NEAR A LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND LEE TROUGH AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF CENTRAL MT. OBS AHEAD OF THIS CONVECTION WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND DEWPTS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO A NEARLY UNCAPPED MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE PER MODIFIED FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITH AROUND 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE AND LESS THAN 25 J/KG OF CINH. GIVEN LARGE SCALE FORCING OVERSPREADING THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND CONTINUED DIMINISHMENT OF CINH...AN INCREASING TREND IN COVERAGE AND STRENGTH OF CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED AS CURRENT ACTIVITY MOVES CLOSER TO SCENTRAL/ND/NCENTRAL SD ALONG LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY/SHEAR AXIS. RELATIVELY HIGH BASED NATURE OF CONVECTION SUGGESTS THAT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS...ALTHOUGH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES INDICATE THAT MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE. ..CROSBIE.. 06/04/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR... 44600140 44970272 45640348 46770334 47240300 47780196 47840047 47389921 46689882 44819884 44349946 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 4 19:16:14 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 04 Jun 2004 14:16:14 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406041916.i54JG0825911@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 041914 SWOMCD SPC MCD 041913 TXZ000-OKZ000-042115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1083 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0213 PM CDT FRI JUN 04 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN AND NCENTRAL TX...THE ERN TX PANHANDLE AND FAR WRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 041913Z - 042115Z ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TO THE SW OF THE SPS AREA...AND MAY DEVELOP AS FAR NWD AS THE ERN TX PANHANDLE BY 21Z. MODERATE MID LEVEL SHEAR ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE DEPARTING MCV OVER CENTRAL OK ALONG WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THAT ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE WIND/HAIL BY 21Z. A WW MAY BE NEEDED SHORTLY. LATEST VIS IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT TOWERING CU WAS DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF A OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NEAR CDS SEWD TO STEPHENS COUNTY. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS FOR THE AREA INDICATE BETWEEN 2000-2500 J/KG OF MLCAPE AND 30-35 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...AS A BELT OF 25-30 KT MID LEVEL NWLY FLOW EXTENDS OVER THE AREA ON THE SW SIDE OF AN MCV OVER CENTRAL OK. ALTHOUGH THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MARGINAL FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT..AT LEAST WELL ORGANIZED MULTICELL STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY. DEVELOPMENT IS MOST LIKELY TO THE SW OF SPS AHEAD OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH MCV OVER OK. NWLY FLOW WILL TAKE THESE STORMS INTO NCENTRAL TX BY LATE AFTERNOON. DESPITE STRONGER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER THE NERN TX PANHANDLE WHERE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/DRYLINE INTERSECTION WAS OCCURRING...LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE MCV OVER OK AND/OR WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES MAY BE TOO GREAT FOR INITIATION TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON. ..CROSBIE.. 06/04/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA... 32409917 33680039 35090069 36540036 36580006 36169946 34279898 32889710 32249735 32189817 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 4 19:30:18 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 04 Jun 2004 14:30:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406041930.i54JU4803085@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 041929 SWOMCD SPC MCD 041929 OKZ000-TXZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-WYZ000-042130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1084 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0229 PM CDT FRI JUN 04 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO...ERN WY...SW SD...WRN NEB...EXTREME WRN KS...NE NM AND THE WRN OK AND TX PANHANDLES CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 041929Z - 042130Z THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS THEY MOVE EWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND INTO THE MOIST AXIS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. ISOLATED DAMAGING AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THIS AREA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. HIGH BASED STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NM...CO AND WY. A LEE SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS E OF THIS ACTIVITY FROM EXTREME ERN WY THROUGH ERN CO AND NERN NM. EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY...SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL MAINTAIN AN AXIS OF RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE ATMOSPHERE HAS ALREADY BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE E OF THE LEE TROUGH. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING ARE SUPPORTING AN AXIS OF MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. SSELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL PERSIST E OF LEE TROUGH UNDERNEATH A BROAD FETCH OF MODEST NWLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO VEERING WIND PROFILES AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR FROM 35 TO 40 KT...SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. STORMS SHOULD GENERALLY BE HIGH BASED...BUT SHOULD INTENSIFY WITH INCREASING THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL AS THEY DEVELOP EWD INTO THE AXIS OF STRONGER INSTABILITY. ..DIAL.. 06/04/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...UNR...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...CYS...ABQ... 35480372 39430384 42920454 43940384 42710234 36390151 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 4 20:29:02 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 04 Jun 2004 15:29:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406042028.i54KSm809764@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 042026 SWOMCD SPC MCD 042026 TXZ000-NMZ000-042230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1085 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0326 PM CDT FRI JUN 04 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SCENTRAL/SERN NM AND FAR WRN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 042026Z - 042230Z THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL RIO GRANDE RIVER VALLEY MAY SEE AN INCREASED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AS THEY MOVE SSEWD INTO FAR SCENTRAL NM/FAR WRN TX OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRYLINE FROM SOUTH OF CQC TO THE SACRAMENTO MTNS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. RELATIVE WEAKLY ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT SHOULD PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE OVER SCENTRAL/WCENTRAL NM TO THE NORTH OF TCS...AS IT MOVES OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND INTO A MODERATE INSTABILITY AXIS OF MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG EXTENDING NWD FROM THE ELP AREA ALONG THE RIO GRANDE RIVER VALLEY. STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM THE SFC TO LCLS AROUND 650 MB ALONG WITH CONTINUED TO ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTIVE CLUSTER WILL ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS A COLD POOL CONTINUES TO MATURE OVER THE LOWER RIO GRANDE RIVER VALLEY. CLOVIS 88-D AND VIS IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT THE DRYLINE EXTENDING FROM GUADALUPE CO SWD INTO THE SACRAMENTO MTNS WAS SHARPENING...AND STRENGTHENING CONVERGENCE SHOULD AID IN ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT/INTENSIFICATION OVER SERN/ECENTRAL NM. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH SELY 15-20 KTS BELOW NWLY FLOW AOB 20 KTS. FARTHER SE...CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG DAVIS MTNS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MAINTAINED BY UPSLOPE SELY FLOW AND WEAK NWLY FLOW ALOFT. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY BEFORE IT DISSIPATES AROUND 00Z. ..CROSBIE.. 06/04/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...ABQ...EPZ... 31820688 32410765 33430777 34130734 34500623 34880503 34240325 32950303 31130318 30700482 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 4 20:58:18 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 04 Jun 2004 15:58:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406042058.i54Kw4828675@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 042051 SWOMCD SPC MCD 042051 NCZ000-VAZ000-042145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1086 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0351 PM CDT FRI JUN 04 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN NC THROUGH EXTREME SE VA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 394... VALID 042051Z - 042145Z THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED TO PERSIST ANOTHER 2-3 HOURS ACROSS MAINLY ERN NC. THOUGH THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES STILL REMAINS...PRIMARY THREAT APPEARS TO HAVE TRANSITIONED TO DAMAGING WIND...HAIL AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. ANOTHER WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED BUT CURRENT WW MAY BE EXTENDED LOCALLY FOR ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS. THIS AFTERNOON A SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS FROM NERN NC SWWD TO JUST SE OF CHARLOTTE. STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING IN VICINITY OF AND S OF THIS BOUNDARY. OVERALL...STORMS HAVE BECOME MORE LINEAR...BUT WITH SOME EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. MAIN THREAT FROM THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY HEAVY RAIN...ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. HOWEVER... THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO STILL EXISTS...MAINLY WITH STORMS DEVELOPING CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY FROM WAYNE AND GREENE COUNTIES NEWD THROUGH CURRITUCK COUNTY. ..DIAL.. 06/04/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM... 35337583 35127740 34497907 35297893 35807789 36617611  From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 4 22:09:25 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 04 Jun 2004 17:09:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406042209.i54M9B809819@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 042208 SWOMCD SPC MCD 042208 LAZ000-TXZ000-050015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1087 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0508 PM CDT FRI JUN 04 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX/SWRN LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 042208Z - 050015Z ISOLATED DAMAGING WET MICROBURSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH CONVECTION OVER SERN TX/SWRN LA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS IT MOVES SSEWD AROUND 5-10 KTS. ADDITIONALLY...SLOW MOVEMENT AND CONTINUED FOCUS FOR REDEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM TO THE NORTH OF CLL WILL AID IN A THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES AS WELL. VERY UNSTABLE AIR EXISTS OVER SERN TX/SWRN LA WITH MLCAPES FROM 3000-3500 J/KG. WEAKNESS IN MID LEVEL FLOW WILL LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL TO ISOLATED WET MICROBURSTS WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT. SLOW SSE STORM MOTIONS AROUND 5 KTS...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL CONTINUED BACKBUILDING OF CONVECTION NWWD INTO ECENTRAL TX AIDED BY AN MCV OVER ERN OK INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL RATES WILL BE FROM LEON CO SEWD INTO THE NRN HOU METRO AND BEAUMONT AREAS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. VERY HIGH PW/S WILL SUPPORT RAINFALL RATES FROM 2-3 IN/HR ALONG THIS CORRIDOR. ..CROSBIE.. 06/04/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD... 29569490 30339579 31179603 31529536 31029392 29739379 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 4 22:22:15 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 04 Jun 2004 17:22:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406042222.i54MM4817604@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 042221 SWOMCD SPC MCD 042220 NCZ000-SCZ000-050015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1088 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0520 PM CDT FRI JUN 04 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SC INTO ERN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 042220Z - 050015Z SEVERE THREAT PERSISTS...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE MARGINAL...AND NEW WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THE PRESENT TIME. MID/UPPER JET STREAK OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS...IN THE IMMEDIATE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD. STRONGEST SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS HAVE SHIFTED ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA INTO ADJACENT OFFSHORE WATERS...JUST AHEAD OF WEAK LOW NOW NEAR/EAST OF GREENVILLE NC. COLD FRONT WEST OF LOW IS BEGINNING TO MERGE INTO LEE SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING WEST SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE FLORENCE/COLUMBIA AREAS OF SOUTH CAROLINA. THIS BOUNDARY MAY BECOME FOCUS FOR FURTHER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...BEFORE MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1500 J/KG BEGINS TO COOL WITH LOSS OF HEATING. THOUGH SHEAR PROFILES ARE FAIRLY WEAK NEAR THERMAL LOW/TROUGH OVER CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA... THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT MAY BE SUPPORTIVE OF HAIL/GUSTY WINDS IN STRONGER CELLS BEFORE ENVIRONMENT BEGINS TO STABILIZE. OTHERWISE...BETTER SEVERE THREAT WILL PERSIST JUST TO THE EAST OF SURFACE LOW ACROSS COASTAL AND ADJACENT INLAND AREAS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA ANOTHER FEW HOURS. CLOSER PROXIMITY TO SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS JUST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST SUPPORTS CONTINUING POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH EVOLVING CONVECTIVE LINE. WITH LOWER 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS CONTRIBUTING TO FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT... LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ACROSS THIS REGION ALSO REMAIN MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS...WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE. ..KERR.. 06/04/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP... 35897724 36457685 35827556 34907569 33797785 33587904 33438069 34068217 34848185 34978016 34967882 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 4 22:36:34 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 04 Jun 2004 17:36:34 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406042236.i54MaL826808@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 042235 SWOMCD SPC MCD 042235 TXZ000-050000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1089 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0535 PM CDT FRI JUN 04 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NCENTRAL/NWRN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 395... VALID 042235Z - 050000Z GREATEST SEVERE THREAT FOR THE REMAINDER OF WW 395 EXPIRATION TIME /01Z/ APPEARS TO BE OVER THE SRN/WRN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA...FROM THE DFW AREA SWWD. AN ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE JUST SOUTH AND WEST OF WW 395. WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR STORM GENERATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/COLD POOL INTERACTIONS TO ENHANCE UPDRAFT STRENGTH AND MAINTAIN SEVERE THREAT OVER MUCH OF THE SRN/WRN HALF OF WW 395 FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STABLE AIR EVIDENT OVER THE DFW METRO AREA AND NERN PORTIONS OF WW 395 WILL LIKELY LIMIT ANY SEVERE THREAT FOR THE REMAINDER OF WW 395 VALID TIME IN THESE AREAS. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN LIKELY TO THE SOUTH OF WW 395 OVER THE HILL COUNTRY ALONG SYNOPTIC FRONT WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND LIMITED CINH WILL EXIST. CELL MERGERS...SWD MOVEMENT AND POTENTIAL FOR COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT OVER SRN PORTIONS OF WW 395 MAY AID IN SOME DAMAGING WIND THREAT SOUTH OF WW 395 AND BEYOND 01Z. ..CROSBIE.. 06/04/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF... 30379981 32220174 32730162 34160050 33819807 32839727 31829584 30439621 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 4 23:05:29 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 04 Jun 2004 18:05:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406042305.i54N5G811238@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 042304 SWOMCD SPC MCD 042304 NDZ000-SDZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-050100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1090 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0604 PM CDT FRI JUN 04 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...HIGH PLAINS...TX PNHDL INTO S CNTRL NORTH DAKOTA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 396...397... VALID 042304Z - 050100Z CONTINUE WWS TIL EXPIRATION...ADDITIONAL WWS TO THE EAST MAY NOT BE NEEDED. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WHICH HAS DEVELOPED IN THE VICINITY OF LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE/LEE SURFACE TROUGH...CONTINUES TO PROGRESS THROUGH NARROW TONGUE OF MAXIMUM INSTABILITY ALONG/WEST OF SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS. MODERATE SHEAR AND CAPE RANGING FROM 1500 TO 3000 J/KG WILL SUPPORT CONTINUING SEVERE THREAT AT LEAST ANOTHER FEW HOURS. THOUGH FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH NOCTURNAL STRENGTHENING OF LOW-LEVEL JET PROVIDES SOME POTENTIAL FOR STORM INTENSIFICATION AS IT APPROACHES JET AXIS...THIS MAY BE OFFSET BY RELATIVE LOW MOISTURE CONTENT OF AIR MASS ACROSS THE PLAINS. FAIRLY RAPID COOLING OF BOUNDARY LAYER MAY OCCUR BY AROUND SUNSET...AND WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPEARING TO STABILIZE RAPIDLY EAST OF HIGH PLAINS THERMAL RIDGE...SEVERE THREAT MAY NOT CONTINUE MUCH BEYOND 02-03Z. ..KERR.. 06/04/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...LBF...DDC...UNR...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...CYS... 35680190 36050235 37240227 39320284 41120294 42490244 43780208 45590133 47080110 46829916 45079922 43550004 40750093 38710068 36880039 35790082 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 4 23:23:26 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 04 Jun 2004 18:23:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406042323.i54NNO821620@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 042322 SWOMCD SPC MCD 042322 TXZ000-NMZ000-050045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1091 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0622 PM CDT FRI JUN 04 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...TX PANHANDLE/FAR WRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 042322Z - 050045Z LINE OF STRONG-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING RAPIDLY OVER THE SRN PORTIONS OF WW 396 WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SEWD OUT OF WW 396 INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE TX PANHANDLE OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. A NEW WW IS BEING CONSIDERED OVER AREAS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF WW 396. RADAR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT A COLD POOL WAS INCREASING IN STRENGTH OVER THE NWRN TX PANHANDLE AND FAR NERN NM...WHERE 2 MB/HR RISES HAVE BEEN NOTED RECENTLY AT DHT. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WAS INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY ALONG THE GUST FRONT/DRYLINE MERGER. MODERATE INSTABILITY AXIS WITH MLCAPES FROM 2000-2500 J/KG EXISTED TO THE EAST OF A DRYLINE EXTENDING FROM PARMER CO IN THE SWRN TX PANHANDLE NEWD TO HANSFORD CO. CONVECTION TO THE EAST OF TCC SHOULD ALSO INCREASE AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS EAST OF THE DRYLINE. INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET TO AROUND 40 KTS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL AID IN SUSTAINING CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS GUST FRONT WHICH SHOULD AID IN CONVECTION MOVING SEWD OUT OF WW 396 OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THIS INTENSIFYING LINE WILL FAVOR A CONTINUED SEVERE THREAT SOUTH OF WW 396 FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. INCREASING DIURNAL CINH MAY LIMIT THE LONGEVITY OF A SEVERE THREAT BEYOND 02Z. ..CROSBIE.. 06/04/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ... 34470297 35390313 35700240 35730112 36270062 35930008 34590005 34410177 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 5 01:06:41 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 04 Jun 2004 20:06:41 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406050106.i5516R810147@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 050105 SWOMCD SPC MCD 050104 SDZ000-NDZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-050300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1092 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0804 PM CDT FRI JUN 04 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PLAINS...TX PNHDL INTO CNTRL/ERN ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 396...397... VALID 050104Z - 050300Z WWS WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 02Z. WITH ONSET OF STRONGER RADIATIONAL SURFACE COOLING DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...PRIMARY FORCING FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ALONG STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS. THOUGH ACTIVITY WILL BE BASED ABOVE DEEPENING INVERSION LAYER...EVAPORATIVE COOLING NEAR WEAKENING/DISSIPATING RAIN CORES MAY STILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG...GUSTY SURFACE WINDS FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO BEYOND WATCH EXPIRATION. AS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AWAY FROM STEEPER LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN...RISK OF LARGE HAIL SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. ..KERR.. 06/05/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...ICT...OUN...ABR...GID...BIS...LBF...DDC...UNR...GLD...AMA... 47280019 47779893 46869717 44839695 43409858 40959910 37829864 35889973 35750172 37220124 38370169 40470191 43540233 44970123 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 5 02:38:08 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 04 Jun 2004 21:38:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406050237.i552bs825495@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 050235 SWOMCD SPC MCD 050235 TXZ000-050430- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1093 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0935 PM CDT FRI JUN 04 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 399... VALID 050235Z - 050430Z DAMAGING WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE NEAR THE AUSTIN/TEMPLE AREAS WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HEAVY PRECIPITATION CORE PERSISTS TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST OF TEMPLE...SUPPORTED BY INTENSE UPDRAFTS IN ENVIRONMENT WITH MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG. WITH ONSET OF SURFACE COOLING...CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS INCREASING AND SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO SLOW WEAKENING TRENDS NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...AS CELL COLLAPSES/WEAKENS...POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED DOWNBURST WITH DAMAGING SURFACE GUSTS STILL APPEARS TO EXIST THROUGH THE 03-04Z TIME FRAME. ..KERR.. 06/05/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT... 31459827 31419751 30919706 30529758 30759838 31249866 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 5 04:44:20 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 04 Jun 2004 23:44:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406050444.i554i5820181@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 050443 SWOMCD SPC MCD 050443 TXZ000-050645- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1094 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1143 PM CDT FRI JUN 04 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...W CNTRL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 050443Z - 050645Z STRONG GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES APPROACHING SEVERE LIMITS MAY PERSIST WITH CONVECTIVE SYSTEM SURGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. VIGOROUS MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM NOW PROGRESSING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE CHILDRESS/LUBBOCK AREAS HAS BEEN SUPPORTED BY WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH/MID-LEVEL JET STREAK DIGGING OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. WITH NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO MID/UPPER FLOW REGIME AIDING SOUTHWARD PROPAGATION OF CLUSTER INTO 30 TO 40 KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL...SYSTEM RELATIVE INFLOW APPEARS ON THE ORDER OF 60+ KT. VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS MAINTAINING INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT ON EASTERN PERIPHERY OF ELEVATED MIXED LAYER EMANATING FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND PLATEAU. MOST INTENSE ACTIVITY APPEARS LIKELY TO PROPAGATE SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT INTO AREAS NEAR/WEST OF ABILENE BY 07-08Z...AND THE SAN ANGELO AREA BY 09-10Z. NARROW TONGUE OF WARM/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AIR EXTENDS ACROSS THIS AREA...UNAFFECTED BY PRIOR CONVECTION...AND APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE AT LEAST ON THE ORDER OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. THOUGH BASE OF UPDRAFTS/LEVEL OF FREE CONVECTION IS LIKELY ABOVE DEEPENING INVERSION LAYER...THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT LIKELY WILL MAINTAIN FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE COLD POOL/ASSOCIATED PRESSURE PERTURBATION AND RISK OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS WHICH MAY APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS. ..KERR.. 06/05/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF... 33539935 32639879 31379897 30790010 31550143 32290177 33250168 33050058 33240022 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 5 16:05:43 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 05 Jun 2004 11:05:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406051605.i55G5Y829937@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 051604 SWOMCD SPC MCD 051603 FLZ000-GAZ000-051800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1095 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1103 AM CDT SAT JUN 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SERN GA THROUGH THE FL PENINSULA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 051603Z - 051800Z THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY INTO THE AFTERNOON. MULTICELL AND PULSE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION ACROSS MOST OF THE FL PENINSULA INTO SERN GA THIS AFTERNOON. THOUGH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE MODEST AND GENERALLY AOB 6.5 C/KM...HEATING OF THE VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. NUMEROUS BOUNDARIES EXIST TO SERVE AS FOCI FOR INITIATION INCLUDING A WEAK FRONT ACROSS SRN GA INTO NRN FL... SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...AND DEVELOPING SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARIES. WITH WEAK CAP IN PLACE...STORMS WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR SUGGESTS STORMS WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME ORGANIZING...EXCEPT POSSIBLY AS MULTICELL LINES ALONG SEA BREEZE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ..DIAL.. 06/05/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE... 29428133 26878022 25668053 26038146 27378240 28848236 30028366 31348153 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 5 16:47:14 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 05 Jun 2004 11:47:14 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406051646.i55Gkw820530@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 051646 SWOMCD SPC MCD 051645 LAZ000-TXZ000-051915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1096 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1145 AM CDT SAT JUN 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SE TX THROUGH SRN LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 051645Z - 051915Z SCATTERED STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. THIS AFTERNOON A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SRN LA WWD THROUGH SERN TX. THE ATMOSPHERE IN VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE. RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S IS IN PLACE BELOW MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM 6.5 TO 7 C/KM. SURFACE HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 3000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN MCV HAVE BEEN MORE PERSISTENT IN SE TX...SO THE STRONGER DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS SRN LA. THE MCV OVER SERN TX SHOULD CONTINUE SLOWLY E INTO SRN LA THIS AFTERNOON. ZONE OF ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT SHOULD PROMOTE AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORMS AS DESTABILIZATION OCCURS. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE GENERALLY MODEST AND SUPPORTIVE OF MOSTLY MULTICELLS. HOWEVER...THE VWP DATA FROM HOUSTON SHOW SHEAR PROFILES AT LEAST MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. ..DIAL.. 06/05/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...HGX... 29799366 29209538 29749559 30419496 31039432 30589225 30239006 29429008 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 5 17:58:33 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 05 Jun 2004 12:58:33 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406051758.i55HwH825642@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 051757 SWOMCD SPC MCD 051756 MNZ000-SDZ000-051930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1097 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1256 PM CDT SAT JUN 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SD AND WRN/CENTRAL MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 051756Z - 051930Z ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP OVER ERN SD EWD INTO CENTRAL MN AROUND 20Z. AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT APPEARS UNCERTAIN...THUS WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS AREA FOR A POSSIBLE WW. VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT A SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF HON...WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SWWD FROM THE LOW TO NEAR WINNER...AND ENEWD FROM THE LOW TO NEAR STC. A SURFACE COLD FRONT NORTH OF THIS LOW ACROSS SERN ND INTO NRN MN WAS MOVING SWD AT AROUND 20 KTS. CONVERGENCE ALONG BOTH OF THESE FEATURES ALONE ARE RELATIVELY WEAK. HOWEVER... AS THE FRONT CATCHES UP TO THE LOW/TROUGH...INCREASING CONVERGENCE WILL OCCUR. ALTHOUGH WAVE PATTERNS NOTED IN THE LOW CLOUDS ARE INDICATIVE OF MODEST CINH...CONTINUED HEATING INTO THE LOWER 80S WITH DEWPTS REMAINING IN THE LOWER 60S SHOULD AID IN LITTLE TO NO CINH ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER ECENTRAL SD INTO CENTRAL MN BY 20Z. MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES FROM 1500-2000 J/KG AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF A SEWD MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL OFFSET RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR /25 KTS/ TO ALLOW FOR AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT. ..CROSBIE.. 06/05/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR... 43509848 44359910 44999906 45369846 45839626 45829494 45759419 45549417 44659455 43539679 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 5 19:24:25 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 05 Jun 2004 14:24:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406051924.i55JO9803997@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 051922 SWOMCD SPC MCD 051921 MTZ000-IDZ000-052115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1098 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0221 PM CDT SAT JUN 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN/CENTRAL MT...NRN ID CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 051921Z - 052115Z ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY 20Z OVER NRN ID INTO FAR WRN MT. OVERALL THREAT APPEARS TO BE LIMITED AT FIRST...UNTIL CONVECTION INTERACTS WITH GREATER INSTABILITY OVER THE FRONT RANGE/CENTRAL MT. A WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED BEFORE 21Z. CONVECTION WAS BEGINNING TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY OVER THE BITTEROOT MTNS OF FAR NRN ID WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND STRONG DYNAMIC LIFT WAS OVERSPREADING THE AREA. PRESENT INDICATIONS FROM OBSERVATIONS IN FAR WRN MT/NRN ID INDICATE BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG OF MUCAPE. COMBINED WITH 50 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR ALONG MID LEVEL JET AXIS...CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA. OTHER CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NRN SAWTOOTH/CLEARWATER MTNS ALONG THE MID/UPPER JET AXIS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS WELL...AND AGAIN HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL. THE GREATEST INSTABILITY EXISTED OVER NCENTRAL/NWRN MT...WHERE AXIS OF LOW TO MID 50S DEWPTS MUCAPES FROM 1500-2500 J/KG RESIDED FROM JUST EAST OF MSO TOWARDS HVR. AS CONVECTION MOVES EAST OF THE BITTEROOT CHAIN AND INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS ENCOUNTERING ELY UPSLOPE INFLOW AND GREATER INSTABILITY. AN ORGANIZED BROKEN LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS ANTICIPATED WITH LARGE HAIL LIKELY. DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BECOME AN INCREASINGLY GREATER THREAT AS CONVECTION MOVES EWD INTO CENTRAL MT GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE WIND FIELDS AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES RESIDING OVER THAT AREA. ..CROSBIE.. 06/05/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...PIH...MSO...BOI...OTX... 44461415 45231505 46551604 47501590 48901408 48931089 48970794 46110776  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 5 19:36:53 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 05 Jun 2004 14:36:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406051936.i55Jaa812695@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 051934 SWOMCD SPC MCD 051934 OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-052130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1099 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0234 PM CDT SAT JUN 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NE NM...SW KS THROUGH THE OK AND TX PANHANDLES. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 051934Z - 052130Z STORMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IN THIS AREA NEXT FEW HOURS. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. THIS AFTERNOON A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM EXTREME NERN NM THROUGH EXTREME SERN CO AND INTO SW KS. DESTABILIZATION IS OCCURRING S OF THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS THE OK AND TX PANHANDLES. SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IS MAINTAINING AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN UPPER 50S UNDERNEATH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. MLCAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH BASED STORMS DEVELOPING OVER SERN CO AND SWRN KS IN VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD INTENSIFY AS THEY DEVELOP SEWD INTO THE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP SEPARATELY ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLES WITHIN AN AREA OF ENHANCED CUMULUS ALONG WHAT APPEARS TO BE A WEAK BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTION. WIND PROFILES EXHIBIT VEERING FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH 6 KM...WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SRN TX PANHANDLE. ..DIAL.. 06/05/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...ABQ... 34040113 34180228 35240350 36160322 36970162 37840007 37419920 36689958 35599988 34710000  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 5 19:42:11 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 05 Jun 2004 14:42:11 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406051941.i55Jfs816088@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 051941 SWOMCD SPC MCD 051940 KSZ000-NEZ000-052115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1100 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0240 PM CDT SAT JUN 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SCENTRAL NEB/NCENTRAL KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 051940Z - 052115Z THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER NCENTRAL KS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BECOME SEVERE BEFORE 21Z. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF A SWD MOVING TROUGH OVER SCENTRAL NEB. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBILITY OF A WW BEFORE 21Z. LATEST VISIBLE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS INCIPIENT STORMS JUST NORTH OF THE HYS/RSL AREA. ADDITIONAL TOWERING CU WAS FORMING ALONG A SWD MOVING TROUGH ALONG I-80 OVER SCENTRAL NEB. CONVERGENCE IN THIS AREA REMAINS WEAK AND THUS FURTHER DEVELOPMENT INTO THUNDERSTORMS IS UNCERTAIN. THERMAL RIDGE/MOISTURE AXIS EXTENDING INTO THE AREA WAS SUPPORTING 1000-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE. DESPITE MARGINAL LOW-MID LEVEL WINDS/SHEAR WITH AREA PROFILERS INDICATING FROM 15 TO 20 KTS...CONCENTRATED AREA OF CONVERGENCE NEAR LOW CENTER OVER NCENTRAL KS ALONG WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE COVERAGE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS. LACK OF STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WINDS THIS EVENING SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A LONGER LIVED SEVERE MCS. ..CROSBIE.. 06/05/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD... 38799952 39259966 40020000 40419999 40659909 40559828 40219775 39319787 38689841 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 5 20:01:50 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 05 Jun 2004 15:01:50 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406052001.i55K1d826858@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 052000 SWOMCD SPC MCD 051959 MNZ000-NDZ000-052130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1101 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0259 PM CDT SAT JUN 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MN/FAR NERN ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 051959Z - 052130Z THUNDERSTORMS OVER SERN MANITOBA/NWRN ONTARIO ARE ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS THEY MOVE SWD AROUND 20 KTS INTO INSTABILITY AXIS OVER NRN MN/NERN ND. MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT ANTICIPATED SHOULD PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AHEAD OF A SWD MOVING FRONT INTO FAR NERN ND AND NRN MN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DESPITE INCREASING MID LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WITH 35-40 KTS AT 500 MB OVERSPREADING THE AREA...MARGINAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY /MLCAPES FROM 500-1000 J/KG/ AND ONLY MODEST CONVERGENCE SHOULD LIMIT A WELL ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL AID IN THE POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ..CROSBIE.. 06/05/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF... 47629727 48039755 48979763 49039568 48369232 47609256 47629626 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 5 20:30:49 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 05 Jun 2004 15:30:49 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406052030.i55KUg810084@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 052028 SWOMCD SPC MCD 052028 TXZ000-052230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1102 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0328 PM CDT SAT JUN 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...W TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 052028Z - 052230Z AREA OF W TX BETWEEN LUBBOCK AND MIDLAND IS BEING MONITORED FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS ONCE STORMS DEVELOP. A WW WILL BE NEEDED ONCE INITIATION BECOMES MORE CERTAIN. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A N-S LINE OF CUMULUS DEVELOPING BETWEEN LUBBOCK AND MIDLAND ON A SUBTLE BOUNDARY. TRENDS IN SURFACE DATA SHOW DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE 40S AND FLOW VEERING TO WLY AS STRONG SURFACE HEATING ENCOURAGES DEEP MIXING ALONG THE NM/TX BORDER. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT SHARPENING OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED BOUNDARY AS IT TAKES ON DRYLINE CHARACTERISTICS. THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS QUITE UNSTABLE ALONG AND E OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH MLCAPE AROUND 2500 J/KG. VERTICAL WIND PROFILES EXHIBIT SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERING TO NWLY AT 6 KM WITH DEEP SHEAR GENERALLY LIMITED TO AOB 30 KT DUE TO WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW. WITH VERTICAL SHEAR AT LEAST MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WOULD SUPPORT A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SHARPENING BOUNDARY COULD SUPPORT CONVECTIVE INITIATION WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS THE CAP CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. ..DIAL.. 06/05/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF... 33910022 32660010 31620061 31190105 31330185 32990198 33980203  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 5 20:49:57 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 05 Jun 2004 15:49:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406052049.i55Kne820487@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 052047 SWOMCD SPC MCD 052047 WIZ000-MNZ000-052245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1103 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0347 PM CDT SAT JUN 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ECENTRAL MN AND NWRN WI CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 052047Z - 052245Z ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR PRIMARILY SMALL HAIL AHEAD OF A SWD MOVING FRONT OVER ECENTRAL MN INCLUDING THE MSP METRO AREA. THE ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL THREAT SHOULD SLOWLY DEVELOP EWD INTO NWRN WI OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ADDITIONAL STRONG TO ISO SVR THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED NORTH OF THE ALEXANDRIA AREA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY OVER ECENTRAL MN ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A THERMAL RIDGE/MOISTURE AXIS EXTENDING NEWD FROM WCENTRAL MN AND AHEAD OF A SWD MOVING FRONT. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT REMAINS POSSIBLE ALONG A LEADING TROUGH AXIS FROM WRIGHT COUNTY MN EWD INTO POLK COUNTY WI AS 25-30 KT LOW LEVEL SSWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IMPINGES ON THIS BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN MODEST AT BEST OVER THE AREA...WITH MLCAPES FROM 500-1000 J/KG. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND GRADUALLY INCREASING MID LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF A DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NRN MN/ND WILL AID IN SOME UPDRAFT ROTATION WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. ..CROSBIE.. 06/05/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX... 44839347 45439441 46079430 46159284 46049179 45729136 45179104  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 5 21:16:55 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 05 Jun 2004 16:16:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406052116.i55LGd801462@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 052114 SWOMCD SPC MCD 052114 TXZ000-052315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1104 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0414 PM CDT SAT JUN 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SCENTRAL/SERN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 052114Z - 052315Z ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AN MCV AND ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM SCENTRAL/SERN TX OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED BUT ISOLATED NATURE OF A SEVERE THREAT MAY BE INSUFFICIENT FOR A WW. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES A NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE HOU METRO AREA WWD TO JUST NORTH OF SAT. HIGH INSTABILITY EXISTS TO THE SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH MLCAPES AROUND 3000 J/KG. MODEST MID LEVEL 25 KT NWLY WIND FIELDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF TWO MCVS...ONE OVER SERN TX AND THE OTHER OVER THE HILL COUNTRY. FORCING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE HILL COUNTY MCV MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. ..CROSBIE.. 06/05/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX... 28319667 28609834 29529997 30009940 29949866 29779696 29569454 29239479  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 5 21:52:23 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 05 Jun 2004 16:52:23 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406052152.i55Lq7818753@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 052151 SWOMCD SPC MCD 052150 MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-052345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1105 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0450 PM CDT SAT JUN 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN SD/SWRN MN...NWRN IA AND NERN/NCENTRAL NEB CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 052150Z - 052345Z CLUSTER OF STRONG-ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER ECENTRAL SD/WCENTRAL MN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SWD AROUND 20 KTS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG A TROUGH FROM SERN SD INTO NCENTRAL/NERN NEB. WEAK LOW LEVEL INFLOW AND ONLY MODEST MID LEVEL WINDS WILL LIKELY LIMIT UPDRAFT STRENGTH AND A GREATER SEVERE THREAT. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE OVER WCENTRAL MN/ECENTRAL SD AHEAD OF A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING SWD AROUND 15 KTS. MODERATE INSTABILITY AXIS WITH MLCAPES FROM 1500-2000 J/KG EXTENDED FROM SERN SD INTO SWRN MN. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS VERY MARGINAL FOR SUPERCELLS...25 KTS PER WOOD LAKE AND NELEIGH PROFILERS...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY/MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST THAT LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. OVER NERN NEB/NWRN IA...AIRMASS REMAINS UNDER INFLUENCE OF SUBSIDENCE BEHIND DEPARTING MCV AND THUS SEVERE THREAT IS UNLIKELY TO BE MAINTAINED VERY FAR SOUTH INTO THIS AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ..CROSBIE.. 06/05/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF... 42179751 42309909 42879947 43939899 44769820 45189594 45129505 44559476 43159495 41929511 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 5 22:02:02 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 05 Jun 2004 17:02:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406052201.i55M1k822811@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 052200 SWOMCD SPC MCD 052200 ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-052300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1106 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0500 PM CDT SAT JUN 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEASTERN TX...SWRN AR AND SERN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 052200Z - 052300Z ...THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN NUMBER ACROSS NERN TX INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND POSSIBLY SPREAD INTO SERN OK AND SWRN AR. AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. VSBY SATELLITE SHOWS STRONG ROTATION AND MID LEVEL CIRCULATION LOCATED NEAR ACT. STORMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOP TO THE NORTHEAST OF THIS FEATURE FROM 40 N OF DAL TO 40 NW TYR. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ONLY AROUND 25 KT...SURFACE DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 ARE RESULTING IN MLCAPES NEAR 2000 J/KG. IF STORMS MOVE NEWD INTO SWRN AR AND SERN OK...STORMS MAY NOT BE AS INTENSE AS CLOUDS HAVE HELD DOWN HEATING/INSTABILITY AND ONLY A COUPLE OF ISOLATED STORMS WOULD BE EXPECTED. HOWEVER...IF STORMS DO DEVELOP SWD WITHIN CLEAR SLOT FROM TYR SWD TOWARD CLL/LFK...THREAT FOR MORE THAN ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE. ..IMY.. 06/05/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...OUN... 31349653 32649668 33689648 34309562 34299486 34189390 31819410 31209497 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 5 22:49:46 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 05 Jun 2004 17:49:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406052249.i55MnT813292@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 052248 SWOMCD SPC MCD 052248 KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-060015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1107 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0548 PM CDT SAT JUN 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM...OK AND TX PANHANDLES...NWRN OK AND PORTIONS OF KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 400...401... VALID 052248Z - 060015Z SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING/MOVING SEWD THROUGH WW/S 400 AND 401. GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS EXTENDS FROM NEAR TCC TO NEAR GAG TO NEAR HUT. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED TO NEAR 90 DEGREES SOUTH OF THE STORM CLUSTERS AND MLCAPES ARE NOW BETWEEN 2000 TO 3000 J/KG. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST SWWD INTO NWRN KS/SERN CO. THIS FEATURE SHOULD HELP TO GENERATE STRONG/SEVERE STORMS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE MID LEVEL FLOW IS ONLY AROUND 20-25 KT...THE STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND OCCASIONAL DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER...THE STORM OUTFLOWS ARE LIKELY TO CONGEAL DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...WITH AN INCREASING WIND THREAT. ..IMY.. 06/05/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...ABQ... 35620382 36630294 37180120 38129978 38749830 37969749 36709894 35310296 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 6 00:36:28 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 05 Jun 2004 19:36:28 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406060036.i560aH828721@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 060035 SWOMCD SPC MCD 060035 MTZ000-060230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1108 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0735 PM CDT SAT JUN 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NRN/WRN AND CENTRAL MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 402... VALID 060035Z - 060230Z BROKEN LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD AROUND 40 KTS ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF WW 402 THROUGH 03Z. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL MAINTAIN DAMAGING WINDS AS THE PRIMARY THREAT. 00Z SOUNDING FROM GREAT FALLS INDICATES NEAR DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES THROUGH 600 MB...WITH AROUND 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE ABOVE THIS DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER. NEWD MOTION AROUND 40 KTS WITH THE LINE WILL CARRY THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SEVERE THREAT INTO THE ERN PORTION OF WW 402...ERN FERGUS/BLAINE COUNTIES...BY AROUND 03Z. DESPITE DIURNAL INCREASE IN CINH EXPECTED OVER AREAS DOWNSTREAM OF WW 304...A 60 KT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX SAMPLED BY THE MSO VWP SUPPORTING THIS LINE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A DEVELOPING COLD POOL MAY SUPPORT A SEVERE THREAT INTO NERN MT AFTER 03Z. ADDITIONAL NEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT REMAINS POSSIBLE ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE VICINITY OF MSO IN THE WRN PORTIONS OF WW 402...AS AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG SHEAR REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THIS AREA. ..CROSBIE.. 06/06/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...TFX...MSO... 46011287 49011363 48990979 45990938 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 6 00:50:12 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 05 Jun 2004 19:50:12 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406060049.i560nt802298@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 060049 SWOMCD SPC MCD 060048 KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-060145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1109 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0748 PM CDT SAT JUN 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM...OK AND TX PANHANDLES...NWRN OK AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 400...401... VALID 060048Z - 060145Z STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE AREAS WHERE THE SEVERE THREAT IS THE GREATEST IS BETWEEN TCC AND AMA...FROM 40 WEST OF GAG TO 40 E OF GAG...AND BETWEEN ICT AND DDC. THESE CLUSTERS OF STORMS ARE MOVING SWD AT 25 KT AND OUTFLOWS HAVE CONSOLIDATED WITH WIND DAMAGE AND SOME HAIL EXPECTED. EVENING SOUNDING AT AMA SHOWED PLENTY OF INSTABILITY...MUCAPES NEAR 2300 J/KG...DUE TO THE STEEP LAPSE RATES. ALTHOUGH THE MID LEVEL FLOW IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG IN THIS AREA...A WW MAY NEED TO BE REISSUED AT 02Z FOR PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. THE WIND THREAT APPEARS TO BE INCREASING WITH THOSE STORMS IN THE EXTREME NERN TX PANHANDLE/NWRN OK WHERE A COLD POOL HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP. GIVEN THE NWLY FLOW ALOFT AND STRONGER INSTABILITY LOCATED ACROSS THE SRN TX PANHANDLE...STORMS SHOULD MOVE MOSTLY SWD. OTHER INTENSE STORMS REMAIN BETWEEN DDC AND ICT AND THESE STORMS HAVE REMAINED CELLULAR...SO LARGE HAIL IS STILL THE MAIN THREAT. CURRENT MOTION WOULD PLACE THESE STORMS NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER... NORTH OF END...AROUND 02Z. ..IMY.. 06/06/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...ABQ... 35620382 36630294 37180120 38129978 38749830 37969749 36709894 35310296 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 6 02:54:45 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 05 Jun 2004 21:54:45 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406060254.i562sS828090@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 060251 SWOMCD SPC MCD 060251 OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-060345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1110 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0951 PM CDT SAT JUN 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN TX PANHANDLE/NWRN OK AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 401... VALID 060251Z - 060345Z HAIL AND WIND THREAT CONTINUE ACROSS MAINLY NWRN OK AND EXTREME SRN KS. STORMS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY WEAKENING...AND A NEW WW MAY NOT BE NEEDED. AN MCV APPEARS TO HAVE DEVELOP ABOUT 40 SE OF GAG...RESULTING IN STORMS MOVING MORE SEWD THAN SWD. ALTHOUGH MODERATE INSTABILITY AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR CONTINUE...SLOW COOLING/STABILIZING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY INHIBIT THE STRONGER WINDS FROM REACHING THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...OK MESONET DATA HAS SHOWN WINDS BETWEEN 40-50 MPH AND COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS...SO ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH ARE STILL POSSIBLE. OTHER STORMS ARE MOVING SWD OUT OF SOUTH CENTAL KS INTO NRN OK AND HAVE REMAINED CELLULAR WITH A THREAT FOR HAIL. THESE STORMS HAVE ALSO WEAKENED AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE AS BOUNDARY LAYER SLOWLY STABILIZES. ..IMY.. 06/06/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA... 35070005 35790085 36330130 36660013 37159871 37289787 37099730 35709783 35099871 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 6 03:11:49 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 05 Jun 2004 22:11:49 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406060311.i563BX803303@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 060310 SWOMCD SPC MCD 060310 MTZ000-060445- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1111 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1010 PM CDT SAT JUN 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 402... VALID 060310Z - 060445Z LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING SWD ACROSS BLAINE AND FERGUS COUNTIES WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE EWD OUT OF INSTABILITY AXIS. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE LIKELY THREAT ALTHOUGH ISOLATED CELL ON SRN END OF LINE OVER FERGUS COUNTY MAY HAVE SOME LOW-END SEVERE HAIL BEFORE DISSIPATING. FURTHER WEST...ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY REMAINS POSSIBLE BENEATH MID LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT AND WHERE POCKETS OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY EXIST. ISOLATED HAIL AND WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY BUT ANOTHER WW DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY. ..JEWELL.. 06/06/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...MSO... 49020836 46680814 46020933 45331259 45451294 46371368 46811428 48991476 49001161 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 6 06:41:32 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 06 Jun 2004 01:41:32 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406060641.i566fF831773@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 060640 SWOMCD SPC MCD 060640 TXZ000-060815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1112 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0140 AM CDT SUN JUN 06 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 403... VALID 060640Z - 060815Z ORGANIZED / MARGINALLY-SEVERE BOWING MCS CONTINUES MOVING SSEWD ACROSS CENTRAL TX AT 40 TO 45 KT. WITH THIS SYSTEM FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF THE WATCH IN THE 07-08Z TIME FRAME...NEW WW IS BEING CONSIDERED DOWNSTREAM OF WW 403. LATEST DATA INDICATED INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL TX SE OF FAIRLY-WELL ORGANIZED MCS MOVING ACROSS THIS REGION. WITHIN THE PAST HOUR...A 60 MPH GUST WAS REPORTED WITH THIS BOWING LINE...AND GIVEN DECENT STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW AND DEGREE OF ORGANIZATION ON THE MESOSCALE...EXPECT STORMS TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ATTM...EXPECT SEVERE THREAT TO REMAIN MARGINAL...AND GIVEN SOME DECREASE IN REFLECTIVITY WITHIN THE LINE NOTED OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR...SOME QUESTION EXISTS AS TO THE NEED FOR NEW WW. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. ..GOSS.. 06/06/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...MAF... 33579930 33339815 32509698 30619658 30019803 30249881 32450122 32599991 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 6 10:42:10 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 06 Jun 2004 05:42:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406061041.i56Afv822670@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 061040 SWOMCD SPC MCD 061040 MTZ000-061215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1113 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0540 AM CDT SUN JUN 06 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...N CENTRAL MT... CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 061040Z - 061215Z LOCALIZED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS EVOLVING ACROSS N CENTRAL MT ATTM...BUT NEW WW NOT EXPECTED ATTM BARRING MESOSCALE STORM / COLD POOL ORGANIZATION. LATEST DATA INDICATES AXIS OF MARGINAL /UNDER 1000 J/KG MOST-UNSTABLE CAPE/ INSTABILITY ACROSS CENTRAL MT ATTM...AHEAD OF 60-PLUS KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK NOW EJECTING EWD ACROSS WRN AND INTO CENTRAL MT. ALTHOUGH DEGREE OF INSTABILITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT...INCREASINGLY-STRONG LOW- TO MID-LEVEL WIND FIELD SUPPORTS STRONG / LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS. MINI BOW MOVING RAPIDLY ACROSS ERN CASCADE COUNTY ATTM -- WHICH MOVED 15 MILES S OF TFX /GREAT FALLS MT/ RADAR -- INDICATED 65-PLUS KT WIND JUST ABOVE THE GROUND FOR ABOUT A HALF HOUR -- INDICATIVE OF INCREASINGLY-STRONG WIND FIELD ACROSS THIS REGION. WITH ELY COMPONENT OF LOW-LEVEL JET STILL INDICATED ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF MT BENEATH WLY FLOW ALOFT...AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED / FORWARD-PROPAGATING BOW EXISTS. AGAIN...IT APPEARS ATTM THAT THIS THREAT SHOULD BE MODULATED BY LIMITED INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT A FEW ORGANIZED / SEVERE STORMS HAVE PERSISTED...THIS REGION BEARS WATCHING. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE AREA FOR SIGNS OF POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AT GREATER THAN STORM SCALE...WHICH COULD NECESSITATE WW ISSUANCE. ..GOSS.. 06/06/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX... 48121115 48351049 47990911 47160793 46480854 46390968 46211101 46701140 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 6 15:27:51 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 06 Jun 2004 10:27:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406061527.i56FRa801201@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 061524 SWOMCD SPC MCD 061523 FLZ000-061800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1114 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1023 AM CDT SUN JUN 06 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...THE FL PENINSULA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 061523Z - 061800Z THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES INTO THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED WET MICRO BURSTS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. WW NOT ANTICIPATED. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS FEW CLOUDS OVER THE FL PENINSULA...SUGGESTING STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON. MORNING RAOB DATA FROM MIAMI... TAMPA AND JACKSONVILLE ALREADY SHOW MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE WITH MUCAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG. MAXIMUM CAPE VALUES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD RANGE FROM 2500 TO 3000 J/KG. STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES INTO THE AFTERNOON. OTHER STORMS DEVELOPING OVER NRN FL ALONG A NE-SW ORIENTED BOUNDARY MAY ALSO INCREASE AS THEY MOVE EWD. VERTICAL WIND PROFILES ARE WEAK WITH A GENERAL WLY COMPONENT...SUGGESTING STORM MODE WILL AGAIN BE PULSE AND MULTICELL. ..DIAL.. 06/06/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX... 28388086 26548008 25398073 26818176 28068237 29648245 30448166  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 6 16:59:45 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 06 Jun 2004 11:59:45 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406061659.i56GxQ816470@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 061658 SWOMCD SPC MCD 061657 MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-061900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1115 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1157 AM CDT SUN JUN 06 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN THROUGH NE LA THROUGH SW MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 061657Z - 061900Z THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS PARTS OF LA THROUGH CNTRL/SRN MS INTO THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES PRESENCE OF A WEAK BOUNDARY FROM SE LA NWWD THROUGH E TX. WARM SECTOR S OF THIS BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE. AS SURFACE HEATING CONTINUES...MLCAPE SHOULD INCREASE TO BETWEEN 2500 AND 3000 J/KG ACROSS SRN LA. FARTHER NE...THE ATMOSPHERE IS ALSO DESTABILIZING ACROSS CNTRL AND SW MS IN A ZONE OF CLEARING E OF MCV CENTERED OVER SRN AR. WEAKER LAPSE RATES AND SLIGHTLY LESS MOISTURE IN THIS AREA WILL SUPPORT LESS INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE...STORMS SHOULD UNDERGO A GRADUAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. THOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR IS WEAK AND GENERALLY SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELL STORMS... THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF STORMS WILL MOST LIKELY BE IN ZONE OF STRONGER FORCING DOWNSTREAM OF MCV FROM NE LA THROUGH SRN MS. ..DIAL.. 06/06/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV... 29699215 29999356 31029366 31969173 32919067 32668952 31068986 29869095 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 6 18:11:21 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 06 Jun 2004 13:11:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406061811.i56IB8820235@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 061810 SWOMCD SPC MCD 061809 NDZ000-SDZ000-062045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1116 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0109 PM CDT SUN JUN 06 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 061809Z - 062045Z WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR MUCH OF WRN AND CENTRAL ND AROUND 20Z. VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT STRONG FORCING ON THE NOSE OF UPPER LEVEL JET WAS AIDING IN RAPID ELEVATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BASED AROUND 700 MB OVER FAR NWRN/NCENTRAL ND. ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED IN NATURE DUE TO THE COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER FARTHER EAST OVER NCENTRAL/NERN ND...THIS ACTIVITY MAY BEGIN TO POSE A THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS...SINCE CLOUD BEARING LAYER SHEAR FROM 30-35 KTS ABOVE 700 MB SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME UPDRAFT ROTATION. HOWEVER MARGINAL NATURE OF THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD PRECLUDE A WW ISSUANCE AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY. FARTHER WEST SURFACE BASED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR BY 21Z OVER WRN ND...AS HINTS OF CU ARE SHOWING UP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT IN NERN MT AT 18Z. STRONG PRESSURE FALLS/RISES NOTED ON RECENT SFC ANALYSES WILL MAINTAIN STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG LEE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES FROM FAR ERN MT INTO WRN ND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALTHOUGH CINH IS STILL AROUND 100 J/KG AT 18Z...TEMPERATURES ONLY NEED TO REACH THE MID 80S WHILE MAINTAINING DEWPTS IN THE LOWER-MID 50S TO REMOVE THIS CINH. THUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY IN THE 21-22Z TIME FRAME GIVEN CURRENT 18Z TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY TAKE LONGEST OVER SWRN/SCENTRAL ND THIS AFTERNOON...AS GREATER MID LEVEL CINH EXISTS SOUTH OF MID LEVEL JET AXIS. ..CROSBIE.. 06/06/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS... 45970333 47480382 48990333 48989808 48449744 45939883 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 6 19:08:22 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 06 Jun 2004 14:08:22 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406061908.i56J85818124@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 061907 SWOMCD SPC MCD 061907 TXZ000-OKZ000-062100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1117 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0207 PM CDT SUN JUN 06 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND N CNTRL TX THROUGH S CNTRL OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 061907Z - 062100Z CNTRL THROUGH N CNTRL TX INTO S CNTRL OK ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. THIS AFTERNOON AN MCV WAS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER NW TX NEAR WICHITA FALLS MOVING EWD. A BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THE MCV AND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NEAR GAINESVILLE SSWWD TO NEAR JUNCTION. DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS ZONE OF ASCENT...THE ATMOSPHERE IS DESTABILIZING FROM SRN OK THROUGH CNTRL TX WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.5 C/KM ABOVE A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. AS SURFACE HEATING CONTINUES...MAX MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION SHOULD INCREASE AS CAP WEAKENS AND AS ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THE MCV INTERCEPTS INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR DOWNSTREAM. LATEST VWP DATA SHOW MODEST WSWLY FLOW FROM 15 TO 25 KT BETWEEN 1 AND 6 KM AND RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS WIND PROFILE WILL SUPPORT MAINLY MULTICELL CONVECTION...BUT STORMS MAY HAVE A TENDENCY TO EVOLVE INTO LINE SEGMENTS OR CLUSTERS AS THEY MOVE EWD. ..DIAL.. 06/06/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...EWX... 30779843 31709775 32799734 34209769 34659718 34079560 32579554 30449767 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 6 19:32:33 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 06 Jun 2004 14:32:33 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406061932.i56JWD830939@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 061931 SWOMCD SPC MCD 061931 WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-SDZ000-062130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1118 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0231 PM CDT SUN JUN 06 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MN...CENTRAL WI/NERN IA AND ECENTRAL SD CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 061931Z - 062130Z ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR SERN MN/NERN IA INTO CENTRAL WI MAY POSE A THREAT FOR SMALL HAIL AS THEY MOVE EWD AROUND 15 KTS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE FARTHER WEST ALONG SLOWLY RETREATING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SCENTRAL/SWRN MN INTO FAR ECENTRAL SD. HOWEVER...WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES MAY SUPPRESS ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT DESPITE STRENGTHENING FRONTAL CIRCULATION IN THIS AREA AHEAD OF NRN PLAINS SHORTWAVE. LIMITED NATURE OF THE THREAT AND OR ISOLATED COVERAGE SHOULD PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW OVER THE AREA. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT AN AXIS OF AROUND 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE EXTENDS ALONG A SLOWLY NWD MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NEAR BROOKINGS SD ESEWD TO NEAR VOLK FIELD WI. LIGHT ELY FLOW ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THIS BOUNDARY ALONG WITH 20 KT WNWLY MID LEVEL FLOW MAY SUPPORT ENOUGH SHEAR FOR AN ISOLATED HAIL THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. MID LEVEL WARMING IN ADVANCE OF THE NRN PLAINS SHORTWAVE MAY SUPPRESS ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WEST OF SCENTRAL MN. HOWEVER...IF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAN DEVELOP OVER SWRN MN/ECENTRAL SD...STRONGER LOW TO MID LEVEL SHEAR AND SLIGHTLY GREATER INSTABILITY WOULD SUPPORT A SOMEWHAT LARGER HAIL AND DAMAGING THREAT. ..CROSBIE.. 06/06/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...ABR... 43469635 44119721 44509716 44629664 44489597 44189491 44049403 44039308 44129173 44309028 44238884 43898834 43498866 43318938 43189076 43179288 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 6 20:21:00 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 06 Jun 2004 15:21:00 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406062020.i56KKf821230@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 062018 SWOMCD SPC MCD 062018 SDZ000-NEZ000-062215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1119 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0318 PM CDT SUN JUN 06 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN SD AND THE NEB PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 062018Z - 062215Z ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS ALONG A LEE TROUGH FROM FAR WRN SD SWD INTO THE WRN NEB PANHANDLE. DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL FAVOR DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT. ISOLATED NATURE OF THREAT OVER THE AREA MAY PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW. DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER CU WAS INCREASING IN COVERAGE ALONG AND JUST BEHIND OF A DRYLINE THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR RAP SWD INTO THE FAR WRN NEB PANHANDLE. SEVERAL BULGES ON THE DRYLINE...ONE TO THE WEST OF BFF...AND ANOTHER TO THE SW OF RAP...ARE LIKELY LOCATIONS FOR INITIATION OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE AREA SUGGEST THAT AROUND 500-1000 J/KG EXIST ABOVE THE VERY DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW WILL AID IN A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT CAN BECOME LINEARLY ORGANIZED. OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE HAIL LOOKS VERY SMALL CONSIDERING THE DEPTH OF THE ABOVE FREEZING LAYER/HIGH BASED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION. ..CROSBIE.. 06/06/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS... 41110401 43000398 44890402 45790349 45880226 45590131 43060085 40990168  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 6 20:33:47 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 06 Jun 2004 15:33:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406062033.i56KXS829094@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 062030 SWOMCD SPC MCD 062029 OKZ000-KSZ000-062230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1120 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0329 PM CDT SUN JUN 06 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN OK THROUGH SRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 062029Z - 062230Z PARTS OF NRN OK INTO SRN KS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION. IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP...THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL WOULD EXIST. OVERALL THREAT APPEARS MARGINAL...BUT AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. THIS AFTERNOON A SURFACE BOUNDARY WAS OBSERVED MOVING NWWD THROUGH NRN OK. RICHER MOISTURE S OF THIS BOUNDARY IS ADVECTING NWWD...AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING IS PROMOTING MIXING AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LINE OF ENHANCED CUMULUS IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY. WV IMAGERY SUGGESTS SUBSIDENCE IS OCCURRING IN THE MID LEVELS AND FORECAST RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW FAIRLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND VERY DRY AIR IN THE 4-7 KM LAYER. AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOW 90S...CAP SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY WEAK TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...GIVEN ONLY MODEST LOW LEVEL FORCING AND PRESENCE OF SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED. VERTICAL SHEAR IS WEAK AND SUPPORTS PULSE OR MULTICELL CONVECTION. PRIMARY THREAT SHOULD BE ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS SINCE THE HAIL THREAT MAY BE LIMITED BY WARM THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES. ..DIAL.. 06/06/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC... 36349723 35649831 36509872 37539796 37589642 36969570  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 6 21:56:47 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 06 Jun 2004 16:56:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406062156.i56LuS806177@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 062155 SWOMCD SPC MCD 062155 ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-070030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1121 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0455 PM CDT SUN JUN 06 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LA/FAR SRN MS/SWRN AL CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 062155Z - 070030Z DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL CONTINUE OVER SERN LA/FAR SRN MS AND SWRN AL AS A LARGE LINEAR MCS INTERACTS WITH DEVELOPING CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE MCS...AND STORM MERGERS ENHANCE DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL OVER THE AREA. 21Z SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES A COLD POOL HAS DEVELOPED OVER SWRN MS/NERN LA WITH 2 MB MEASURED RISE AT MACOMB MS IN THE LAST HOUR. AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM OF THIS LINE REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES FROMM 1500-2000 J/KG. AS LINE MOVES SSEWD AROUND 30 KTS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...MERGING WITH ADDITIONAL ISOLATED CONVECTION AND OR REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THIS CONVECTION OVER THE NEW ORLEANS AREA AND OVER SWRN AL MAY LOCALLY ENHANCE UPDRAFT/DOWNDRAFTS WITH INCREASED DAMAGING WIND THREAT. SEVERE THREAT SHOULD SUBSIDE IN THE AREA AS LINE MOVES EITHER OFFSHORE OR DISSIPATES DUE TO LOSS OF HEATING IN THE AREA BY AROUND 01Z. ..CROSBIE.. 06/06/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH... 29169083 30229136 31039070 31778918 32258867 32098765 31278747 30398760 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 6 22:41:40 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 06 Jun 2004 17:41:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406062241.i56MfL827644@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 062240 SWOMCD SPC MCD 062239 OKZ000-TXZ000-070115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1122 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0539 PM CDT SUN JUN 06 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CENTRAL TX...SRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 062239Z - 070115Z CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER NRN TX WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY NWD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS INTO SCENTRAL/SERN OK. ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE DFW METRO AREA TOWARDS ACT. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS OVER THIS AREA. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SVR THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NEAR MAF EWD TO NEAR SJT. INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL AID IN NWD MOVEMENT OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON THE NORTH SIDE OF CONVECTIVE CLUSTER INTO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER SCENTRAL/SERN OK WHERE MLCAPES FROM 2000-2500 J/KG EXIST. MEANWHILE 35-40 KT LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPING OVER NRN/CENTRAL TX WILL AID IN THE POTENTIAL FOR REDEVELOPMENT/BACKBUILDING SOUTH OF THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE CLUSTER BACK INTO NCENTRAL TX. THIS WILL AID TRAINING OF ECHOES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL RATES OVER NCENTRAL TX/SCENTRAL OK GIVEN THE MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE. WARM MID LEVELS AND MULTICELLULAR NATURE OF CONVECTION GIVEN THE WEAK SHEAR OVER NRN TX/SRN OK AND BETWEEN MAF AND SJT WOULD LIMIT A PROLONGED/WELL ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT AND THUS A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ..CROSBIE.. 06/06/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...MAF... 31180134 31970234 32400213 32480125 32250057 32000030 32409960 33349899 34399857 34719789 34469657 34339571 33669579 32219663 31689724 31059928 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 6 22:53:36 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 06 Jun 2004 17:53:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406062253.i56MrH800595@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 062252 SWOMCD SPC MCD 062252 NDZ000-070015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1123 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0552 PM CDT SUN JUN 06 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CENTRAL ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 404... VALID 062252Z - 070015Z THREAT FOR SEVERE HAIL/WIND IS INCREASING ACROSS THE WRN PORTIONS OF WW 404. A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED IN WRN ND ABOUT 40 W P24. THESE STORMS ARE LOCATED ALONG A COLD FRONT MOVING EWD THROUGH FAR WRN ND. MORE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT HOUR FROM 50 NORTH TO 60 SOUTH OF DIK AS CONVERGENCE STRENGTHENS ALONG COLD FRONT. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MLCAPES NEAR 2000 J/KG ARE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH SEVERE HAIL/WINDS. THE RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AND HIGH CLOUD BASES ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES...BUT THE STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR MIGHT SUPPORT A BRIEF TORNADO WITH ONE OR TWO STORMS. ..IMY.. 06/06/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BIS... 46140389 47410350 48830334 48870259 48380133 47720136 46060325 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 7 00:14:31 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 06 Jun 2004 19:14:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406070014.i570EC804386@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 070013 SWOMCD SPC MCD 070012 NDZ000-070145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1124 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0712 PM CDT SUN JUN 06 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CENTRAL ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 404... VALID 070012Z - 070145Z SEVERE THREAT WITHIN WW IS GREATEST FROM 40 NW MOT TO 45 SE MOT. ALSO NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF NERN ND WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS THESE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN STRONG FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. THREE SUPERCELLS WERE LOCATED IN NWRN ND FROM NW-SE OF MOT. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN INTENSE AS THEY MOVE NEWD AT 25 KT. STORMS WILL INTERSECT WARM FRONT DURING THE NEXT HOUR SO AND THE POSSIBILITY OF WEAK BRIEF TORNADO IS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...THE SHEAR/INSTABILITY AND DRY BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGESTS THAT LARGE HAIL AND OCCASIONAL WIND DAMAGE SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT. OTHER ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE LOCATED ACROSS WRN ND ALONG AN EWD MOVING COLD FRONT. THESE STORMS SHOULD SLOWLY INTENSIFY AS THEY MOVE EWD INTO A MORE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. ..IMY.. 06/07/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BIS... 47730171 48190199 48890176 48740143 48440105 48100081 47700089 47670137 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 7 01:12:08 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 06 Jun 2004 20:12:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406070111.i571Bn829711@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 070111 SWOMCD SPC MCD 070110 NDZ000-070215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1125 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0810 PM CDT SUN JUN 06 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 404... VALID 070110Z - 070215Z TORNADO THREAT NEAR MOT SHOULD DIMINISH WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR AS TWO SUPERCELLS MOVE EWD TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE WARM FRONT. NEW WW WILL BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF NERN ND AND EXTREME NWRN MN AS SUPERCELLS BECOME ELEVATED AND POSE A HAIL AND WIND THREAT WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ..IMY.. 06/07/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BIS... 47730075 47780138 48130182 48360164 48280137 48090087 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 7 03:14:43 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 06 Jun 2004 22:14:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406070314.i573EO819994@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 070312 SWOMCD SPC MCD 070312 NDZ000-070415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1126 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1012 PM CDT SUN JUN 06 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 405... VALID 070312Z - 070415Z INTENSE STORM WITH STRONG ROTATION IS LOCATED ABOUT 35 WSW DVL MOVING EWD AT 30 KT. STORM APPEARS TO BE ELEVATED AND EAST OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT THAT EXTENDED FROM 50 NW OF MOT TO 60 S OF FAR. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SMALL TORNADO POTENTIAL WITH THIS STORM...THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS SUGGESTS THAT VERY LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE ARE THE MAIN THREATS. OTHER LESS INTENSE STORMS WERE LOCATED IN NRN ND FROM WEST OF MOT TO WEST OF DVL. THESE STORMS ARE ALSO ELEVATED...WITH SEVERE HAIL LIKELY. ..IMY.. 06/07/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... 47869997 48179975 48179908 48169841 47649809 47619892 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 7 04:18:41 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 06 Jun 2004 23:18:41 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406070418.i574IM819790@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 070417 SWOMCD SPC MCD 070417 OKZ000-TXZ000-070545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1127 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1117 PM CDT SUN JUN 06 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN TX AND EXTREME SRN OK CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 070417Z - 070545Z RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN TX THROUGH 06Z/07Z...WITH AREA EXPANDING SLOWLY SEWD DURING THIS PERIOD. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE SPREADING INTO THE AREA FROM NEAR SEP TO NEAR DAL. WARM CORE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION WAS EVIDENT IN RADAR IMAGERY ABOUT 40 NNW OF DAL AND WAS NEARLY STATIONARY. EVENING SOUNDING AT DFW WAS VERY MOIST WITH PW VALUES NEAR 1.75 INCHES. LAPSE RATES NEAR 7C/KM DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S WERE RESULTING IN PLENTY OF INSTABILITY/MLCAPES NEAR 2500 J/KG/CONTINUE TO FEED TO STORMS. CONVECTIVE BAND FEEDING INTO THIS LOW EXTENDED FROM EAST OF GAINESVILLE/DENTON SWWD INTO TARRANT AND PARKER COUNTIES. SOME MID LEVEL DRYING APPEARS TO HAVE WORKED ONTO THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE LOW AND HAD PUSHED CONVECTIVE BAND SEWD AT 10 KT. ALSO... STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN A SLOW SEWD PROPAGATION. THIS WILL SPREAD HEAVIEST RAINS SEWD FROM NEAR SEP TO DAL AND THEN NEWD TO SE OF DUA. SEVERAL HOURS OF PCPN HAS RESULTED IN A COLD POOL TO DEVELOP...SO ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE/HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE AND WITHIN THE STRONGER CORES. HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO LIKELY UNDER THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION NEAR THE RED RIVER AS CONVERGENCE CONTINUES TO GENERATE NEW STORMS/UPDRAFTS. ..IMY.. 06/07/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN... 33979649 33509612 32589614 32289704 32209798 32549813 32759732 33029660 33289634 33509707 33629772 33969760 34119696 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 7 04:37:55 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 06 Jun 2004 23:37:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406070437.i574bZ829968@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 070436 SWOMCD SPC MCD 070436 NDZ000-070600- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1128 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1136 PM CDT SUN JUN 06 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 405... VALID 070436Z - 070600Z HAIL THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS OR BIGGER ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS FROM EAST OF MOT TO WEST OF GFK. SEVERAL INTENSE SUPERCELLS CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD ACROSS NRN ND AT 30 KT. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR...MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE FOR THESE SUPERCELLS TO PRODUCE VERY LARGE HAIL. A WIND THREAT ALSO EXISTS...THOUGH THE UPDRAFT BASES ARE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED AND A COOL BOUNDARY LAYER MAY INHIBIT THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS FROM REACHING THE SURFACE. ..IMY.. 06/07/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... 47659835 47760017 47930101 48620076 48789960 48569756 48049712 47639751 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 7 06:34:53 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 07 Jun 2004 01:34:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406070634.i576YX820664@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 070633 SWOMCD SPC MCD 070633 MNZ000-NDZ000-070800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1129 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0133 AM CDT MON JUN 07 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...N CENTRAL AND NERN ND / NWRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 405... VALID 070633Z - 070800Z STRONG / SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS NERN ND INTO NWRN MN. ALTHOUGH SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF WW...EWD EXTENT OF THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WARM FRONT REMAINING OVER SERN ND ATTM...WITH GREATEST INSTABILITY PERSISTING ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE. INSTABILITY DECREASES WITH EWD EXTENT ACROSS ERN ND...WITH MUCH COOLER / MORE STABLE AIRMASS INDICATED ACROSS NWRN MN. STORMS SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY ELEVATED AND DECREASE IN INTENSITY AS THEY SPREAD EWD INTO NWRN MN / OUT OF WW. MEANWHILE...ALTHOUGH SEVERE THREAT -- MAINLY IN THE FORM OF HAIL -- WILL LIKELY PERSIST LOCALLY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...IT APPEARS ATTM THAT NEW WW WILL LIKELY NOT BE REQUIRED ACROSS NERN ND BEYOND THE 07/08Z EXPIRATION OF WW 405. ..GOSS.. 06/07/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... 48950032 49079621 47129613 47219838 47340026 47640144 48940154 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 7 16:54:06 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 07 Jun 2004 11:54:06 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406071653.i57Grj826866@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 071653 SWOMCD SPC MCD 071652 NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-071915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1130 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1152 AM CDT MON JUN 07 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN FL...ERN AL....GA...SRN SC...SERN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 071652Z - 071915Z MULTICELL CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AND FL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WHILE ACTIVITY WILL GENERALLY BE POORLY ORGANIZED...ANTICIPATED STORM COVERAGE SUGGESTS A LOW PROBABILITY DAMAGING WIND HAZARD. NO WATCH IS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED BUT STORM EVOLUTION IN THIS REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. MOIST AIRMASS WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH SFC DEWPOINTS AROUND 70F. STRONGEST SFC HEATING PER VIS IMAGERY AND LATEST OBS WAS OCCURRING FROM SRN GA INTO CNTRL SC WHERE A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED. CONVECTION WAS DEVELOPING ALONG THIS TROUGH ACROSS GA...AS WELL AS ALONG THE GULF BREEZE OVER NRN FL...AND ON RESIDUAL BACKDOOR FRONT ACROSS SERN NC. VIS IMAGERY ALSO SUGGESTS A SMALL SCALE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORMS OVER GA...AND A LARGER SCALE UPSTREAM IMPULSE OVER NRN AL. WHILE DEEP SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MARGINAL TO SUPPORT MORE ORGANIZED TSTMS... ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL FORCING MECHANISMS COUPLED WITH MID LEVEL IMPULSES AND STRONG CAPE SHOULD SUPPORT INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD STORMS. BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS AND MODEST THETAE LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN A FEW INTENSE CELLS ACCOMPANIED BY DAMAGING MICROBURST WINDS. ..CARBIN.. 06/07/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...TBW...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX... 28988246 30918499 31658591 32828633 33988511 33848204 34717841 34337776 33937866 32408090 31388178 29978156 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 7 19:16:38 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 07 Jun 2004 14:16:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406071916.i57JGH802374@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 071912 SWOMCD SPC MCD 071912 TXZ000-072145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1131 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0212 PM CDT MON JUN 07 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN/NERN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 071912Z - 072145Z SEVERAL THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS ACROSS E-CENTRAL TX ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE 190/30-35 KT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON. THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WITH STRONGEST CORES WILL CONTINUE. AT 19Z...STRONGEST THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER WAS LOCATED ACROSS LEON AND HOUSTON COUNTIES IN E-CENTRAL TX...MOVING STEADILY NWD IN UNIFORM DEEP-LAYER SLY FLOW REGIME OF 20-25 KT. MESOSCALE COLD POOLS ASSOCIATED WITH ACTIVITY HAVE RESULTED IN SOME FASTER PROPAGATIONAL MOTION...SUGGESTING A GREATER THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED THUNDERSTORMS WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY / 100MB MLCAPE VALUES 2000-2500 J/KG / AND NEGLIGIBLE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. MODERATE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND HIGH WBZ HEIGHTS BETWEEN 11-12 KFT SUGGEST HAIL THREAT WILL BE LIMITED TO STRONGEST CORES. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING BETWEEN VCT AND AUS MAY ALSO BECOME LOCALLY SEVERE...PARTICULARLY IF STORM CLUSTERS WITH ORGANIZED COLD POOLS CAN DEVELOP. ..BANACOS.. 06/07/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX... 33659595 33619493 33139424 31709401 30959410 30659508 28999703 29189821 32439678  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 7 20:46:54 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 07 Jun 2004 15:46:54 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406072046.i57KkZ831607@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 072042 SWOMCD SPC MCD 072042 KSZ000-NEZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-072245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1132 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0342 PM CDT MON JUN 07 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM...SERN CO...NWRN KS...SWRN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 072042Z - 072245Z ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS WITH SEVERE DOWNBURST WINDS PSBL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS FROM PARTS OF SERN NM AND SERN CO NEWD ACROSS NWRN KS AND INTO SWRN NEB. TSTMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AROUND SRR AND WEST OF ROW...AS WELL AS INVOF TAD IN SERN CO. VERY HOT AND WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS WAS CONTRIBUTING TO LARGE SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OVER 40F AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY FOR HIGH-BASED CONVECTION ROOTED BETWEEN 600-500MB. GIVEN VERY DRY AND DEEP SUB CLOUD LAYER AND RESULTANT HIGH DCAPE... A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE INTENSE DOWNDRAFTS. OUTFLOW FROM THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY MAY DRIFT EAST INTO GREATER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ON THE DRYLINE AND AID ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN A FEW MORE HOURS. INTENSE HEATING WAS ALSO ERODING THE CAP OVER NWRN KS AND SWRN NEB WHERE DRYLINE COLD FRONT TRIPLE POINT WILL EVOLVE OVR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LOW LEVEL FORCING NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT...COUPLED WITH HIGH INSTABILITY...WILL SUPPORT A POTENTIAL CONCENTRATION OF SEVERE STORMS IN THIS REGION AS WELL. ..CARBIN.. 06/07/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...AMA...MAF...PUB...ABQ...EPZ... 32720426 32580518 33480589 36150562 37320452 38340316 39210282 39970261 40560179 40620101 40210033 39660015 37160204 35220437  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 7 21:39:02 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 07 Jun 2004 16:39:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406072138.i57Lcg832570@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 072137 SWOMCD SPC MCD 072137 MNZ000-WIZ000-072330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1133 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0437 PM CDT MON JUN 07 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL INTO NE MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 072137Z - 072330Z SEVERE THREAT WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY AND RECENT RADAR LOOPS INDICATE SOME INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE PAST HOUR OR SO IN BAND ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. MODIFICATION OF CAP BY MID-LEVEL CONVECTION AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH...AND IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF DOWNSTREAM UPPER JET...AND WARM ADVECTION ALONG LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS APPEAR TO BE PROVIDING FORCING FOR THIS ACTIVITY. AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN STRONG CAP NEXT FEW HOURS... CONVECTION LIKELY WILL BECOME ROOTED IN MOIST AND VERY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG. INITIATION APPEARS MOST LIKELY JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF ONGOING STRONGER DEVELOPMENT...NEAR LAKE BREEZE...NEAR/NORTH OF DULUTH. SHEAR PROFILES ARE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADOES...POSSIBLE AN ISOLATED STRONG TORNADO. VERY LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY ACTIVITY. ..KERR.. 06/07/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF... 46109526 46979432 48449309 47949068 46769138 46079263 45879394 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 7 22:30:52 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 07 Jun 2004 17:30:52 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406072230.i57MUU829840@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 072229 SWOMCD SPC MCD 072229 NEZ000-080030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1134 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0529 PM CDT MON JUN 07 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 072229Z - 080030Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED. WW COULD BECOME NECESSARY. WITH HEATING TO AROUND 100F AT CREST OF HIGH PLAINS THERMAL RIDGE...CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN REACHED TO THE SOUTH/ SOUTHWEST OF AINSWORTH NEB. DEEPENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EVIDENT IN LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY ACROSS THIS REGION...PERHAPS AIDED BY FORCING ALONG SURFACE FRONT...WHICH MAY SUPPORT ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY NEXT FEW HOURS. THOUGH ACTIVITY IS HIGH BASED IN VERY DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY...LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS AND MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE THIS LAYER IS SUPPORTING CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG. THIS WILL SUPPORT VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS...WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS IN ENVIRONMENT WITH 30-50F TEMPERATURE DEW POINT SPREADS. LACK OF UPPER FORCING DOES NOT APPEAR PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...AND MAY LIMIT THREAT WITH ONGOING SCATTERED ACTIVITY FARTHER WEST AND SOUTH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. HOWEVER...ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA IS ON NOSE OF SOUTHERN PLAINS LOW-LEVEL JET. ENHANCED FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH NOCTURNAL STRENGTHENING OF THIS JET MAY MAINTAIN ACTIVITY BEYOND DARK...POSSIBLY AIDING EVOLUTION OF LARGER CONVECTIVE CLUSTER AND GREATER AREAL COVERAGE TO DAMAGING WIND THREAT. ..KERR.. 06/07/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF... 41770203 42330112 42590009 42599907 41729826 41209904 41310095 41410170 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 8 00:09:30 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 07 Jun 2004 19:09:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406080009.i58098819067@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 080008 SWOMCD SPC MCD 080008 WIZ000-MNZ000-080215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1135 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0708 PM CDT MON JUN 07 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...E CNTRL/NE MN...NW WI CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 406... VALID 080008Z - 080215Z SHORT TERM SEVERE THREAT HAS DIMINISHED...BUT INTENSE NEW CONVECTION STILL APPEARS POSSIBLE WITHIN NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS NEAR/SOUTH OF DULUTH INTO AREAS WEST OF MINNEAPOLIS. AGEOSTROPHIC FORCING IN ENTRANCE REGION OF HIGH-LEVEL JET APPEARS TO BE PRIMARY FORCING FOR INTENSE CELL NOW BEGINNING TO SHIFT EAST OF THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD. STRONGER UPPER FORCING WILL DEVELOP EASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL ONTARIO/LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING AS HIGH LEVEL JET PROGRESSES THROUGH CREST OF LARGE-SCALE GREAT LAKES RIDGE. COLD FRONT ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA NOW APPEARS LIKELY TO BECOME FOCUS FOR ANY NEW DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. TIMING FOR THIS IS STILL UNCERTAIN GIVEN PRESENCE OF STRONG CAPPING. HOWEVER...AS MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS LIFTS INTO WESTERN ONTARIO BY THE 03-06Z TIME FRAME...WIND SHIFT AND WEAK COOLING ALOFT MAY WEAKEN INHIBITION SUFFICIENTLY FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION. GIVEN STRENGTH OF POTENTIAL INSTABILITY...WITH 100 MB MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 2000 TO 3000 J/KG...STRONG SHEAR IN PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT WILL ENHANCE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ..KERR.. 06/08/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX... 45149516 46229400 47129313 46959239 46129194 45219273 44539373 44389515 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 8 02:48:51 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 07 Jun 2004 21:48:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406080248.i582mU803147@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 080247 SWOMCD SPC MCD 080246 MNZ000-SDZ000-080445- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1136 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0946 PM CDT MON JUN 07 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SD INTO SW MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 080246Z - 080445Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF WW. NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING...VICINITY OF WEAK SURFACE FRONT ADVANCING INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ACTIVITY FROM THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD INTO THE BRAINERD MN AREA APPEARS TO BE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO FRONT...BUT MAY BE JUST BEHIND FRONTAL WIND SHIFT. OTHER ACTIVITY DEVELOPING WEST SOUTHWESTWARD INTO SOUTH DAKOTA...TO THE WEST OF WATERTOWN...APPEARS TO BE A BIT FARTHER TO THE COOL SIDE OF FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY IS BEING SUPPORTED BY LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION WHICH PERSISTS ABOVE FRONTAL INVERSION LAYER...IN WAKE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH WHICH CONTINUES TO LIFT ACROSS WESTERN ONTARIO. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN WAKE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH HAVE BEEN STABILIZED WITH LOW-LEVEL COOLING. HOWEVER...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STEEPENING ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS FORCING PARCELS TO SATURATION AND LEVEL OF FREE CONVECTION IN THE 850 TO 700 MB LAYER...WITH CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG. SHEAR PROFILES IN CLOUD BEARING LAYER APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION...WHICH WILL ENHANCE RISK OF LARGE HAIL IN STRONGER STORMS. ..KERR.. 06/08/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...ABR... 44419848 45199724 45599534 45659445 44969376 44299484 43439712 43659861 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 8 05:43:23 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 08 Jun 2004 00:43:23 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406080543.i585h0820157@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 080542 SWOMCD SPC MCD 080542 WIZ000-MNZ000-080645- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1137 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1242 AM CDT TUE JUN 08 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ECNTRL/SERN MN AND WCNTRL WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 080542Z - 080645Z TSTMS HAVE INCREASED IN INTENSITY ACROSS SWRN MN SINCE 04Z. IF THEY MAINTAIN INTENSITY...A WW MAY BE REQUIRED DOWNSTREAM INTO WCNTRL WI. AREA PROFILERS SHOW THAT THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME HAS INCREASED EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS ERN SD INTO CNTRL MN AND MAY BE AIDING IN RECENT TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WCNTRL MN. USING A COMBINATION OF RUC2/ETAKF SOUNDINGS...TSTMS APPEAR TO BE ROOTED JUST BELOW 700 MB. SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR IN THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER AND MUCAPES OF 1500-2000 J/KG ARE FAVORABLE FOR MAINLY HAIL. HOWEVER...RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT GUSTY WINDS...AROUND 30-35 KTS... ARE REACHING THE GROUND. RECENT STORM REPORT INDICATES NEAR 60 MPH WINDS BEING OBSERVED. TSTMS WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE BEING FED FROM PARCELS UPSTREAM AND MAY MAINTAIN CHARACTER AS THEY MOVE INTO THE TWIN CITIES AREA AND PERHAPS INTO WCNTRL WI IN A FEW HOURS. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON HOW FAR EAST THIS TSTMS WILL REMAIN SEVERE...GIVEN THE INCREASED CAP TOWARD THE MS RVR. ..RACY.. 06/08/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX... 45459483 45629076 44889037 43999055 43919146 44159506 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 8 07:10:02 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 08 Jun 2004 02:10:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406080709.i5879d825956@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 080709 SWOMCD SPC MCD 080708 MIZ000-MNZ000-WIZ000-080815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1138 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0208 AM CDT TUE JUN 08 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/NERN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 407... VALID 080708Z - 080815Z BOW ECHO THAT DEVELOPED OVER WCNTRL MN HAS QUICKLY MOVED INTO THE TWIN CITIES AREA LOCATED IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 408. IN ITS WAKE...A FEW TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED TO THE NORTH OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. STRONGEST STORMS ARE MOVING NEWD TOWARD THE MONTEVIDEO AREA AND MAY POSE A HAIL THREAT. OTHER TSTMS MAY FORM UPSTREAM ACROSS SERN SD AS WARM ADVECTION IN THE H85-H7 LAYER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. THESE TSTMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL...BUT A LARGE MAJORITY OF THEM WILL PROBABLY REMAIN SUB-SEVERE. MEANWHILE...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS MOVED TO THE MN SHORES OF LAKE SUPERIOR SWWD THROUGH DULUTH. A FEW TSTMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING AND MOVING NEWD ALONG THE FRONT. THUS FAR...HOWEVER...TSTMS HAVE FAILED TO GROW INTO ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS. SEVERE TSTMS THAT HAVE EVOLVED FROM THE BOW ECHO COMPLEX IN THE TWIN CITIES AREA SEEM TO BE DEVELOPING NWD AND MAY AFFECT SRN PINE COUNTY MN AND BURNETT COUNTY IN WI WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 407 BY 0800 UTC. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTAIN LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ..RACY.. 06/08/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MQT...DLH...MPX...FSD... 44529602 46719446 48029196 48058870 45809173 45759300 44509506 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 8 08:06:10 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 08 Jun 2004 03:06:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406080805.i5885o818093@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 080803 SWOMCD SPC MCD 080802 MIZ000-MNZ000-WIZ000-080900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1139 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0302 AM CDT TUE JUN 08 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ECNTRL/NERN MN INTO WCNTRL/NWRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 407...408... VALID 080802Z - 080900Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCHES 407 AND 408 ARE SET TO EXPIRE AT 0900 UTC. ANOTHER WATCH WILL PROBABLY NOT BE NEEDED. THE BOW ECHO THAT MOVED THROUGH THE TWIN CITIES AREA DID NOT MAINTAIN CHARACTER AS IT MOVED EWD...PROBABLY DUE TO STRONGER CAP LOCATED ALONG THE MS RVR. ELEVATED TSTMS HAVE CONTINUED TO DEVELOP IN THE WAKE DEPRESSION AND WILL MOVE TOWARD THE WRN PARTS OF THE TWIN CITIES METRO AREA THROUGH 10Z. THESE STORMS MAY POSE AN ISOLD HAIL THREAT. MEANWHILE...DOWNSTREAM...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS MOVED INTO WCNTRL/ NWRN WI WITH A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTICITY CENTER MOVING ENEWD INTO BURNETT COUNTY WI. THIS MCV EVOLVED FROM THE HEAD PORTION OF THE RECENTLY WEAKENED BOW ECHO. ASSOCIATED TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ENEWD TOWARD HAYWARD BY 0800 UTC AND COULD PERIODICALLY PRODUCE A DAMAGING WIND GUST OR HAIL. OTHERWISE...SUSTAINED DEEP CONVECTION HAS FAILED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE OUTFLOW/FRONT FARTHER NORTH ACROSS NERN MN LATELY. TSTMS MAY INCREASE UPSTREAM FROM THE SERN ND/NERN SD AREA NEWD INTO CNTRL/NRN MN IN A FEW HOURS. THESE TSTMS SHOULD MAINLY BE SUB-SEVERE...BUT COULD PRODUCE ISOLD HAIL TO NEAR SEVERE LEVELS. GIVEN ISOLD COVERAGE OF THE SEVERE THREATS...IT DOES NOT SEEM PRUDENT TO ISSUE CONTINUATION WATCHES ACROSS THE UPPER MS VLY ATTM. ..RACY.. 06/08/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MQT...DLH...MPX... 44709563 46229490 48049193 48038870 45769166 45649077 44559214 44549468 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 8 19:27:38 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 08 Jun 2004 14:27:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406081927.i58JRK210275@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 081925 SWOMCD SPC MCD 081924 NEZ000-082130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1140 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0224 PM CDT TUE JUN 08 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN AND CNTRL NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 081924Z - 082130Z A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED SHORTLY FOR PORTIONS OF SWRN AND CNTRL NEB. THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR STORM INITIATION WITHIN 1-2 HOURS. INTENSE SURFACE HEATING COUPLED WITH VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER HAS RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF QUASISTATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS SWRN NEB. ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO OF HEATING COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE MESOSCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG THE FRONT AND NEAR SURFACE LOW SHOULD ELIMINATE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION SUFFICIENTLY FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT. EXPANDING WARM SECTOR CU FIELD FURTHER SUGGESTS THIS PROCESS IS UNDERWAY. MOST SUPPORTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS WAS CURRENTLY SITUATED ALONG THE NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ANY STORMS THIS AREA WILL BE LIKELY TO PRODUCE VERY LARGE HAIL. IF CELLS CAN FORM ON THE BOUNDARY...OR BUILD INTO THE WARM SECTOR...MAGNITUDE OF CAPE AND STRENGTH OF LOW LEVEL SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR NOW EVIDENT ON AREA WIND PROFILER DATA WOULD SUPPORT THE THREAT OF TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO VERY LARGE HAIL. ..CARBIN.. 06/08/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD... 40559953 40250184 40970201 41650208 42649881 42199834 41139765 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 8 20:23:55 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 08 Jun 2004 15:23:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406082023.i58KNV217556@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 082022 SWOMCD SPC MCD 082022 COZ000-082145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1141 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0322 PM CDT TUE JUN 08 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 082022Z - 082145Z A WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SHORTLY ACROSS NERN CO. TSTMS ARE NOW DEVELOPING RAPIDLY NEAR THE PALMER DIVIDE AND ON THE FRONT RANGE AS CAP HAS BEEN OVERCOME BY STRONG SFC HEATING. MOIST POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ALLOW STORMS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITHIN MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS NERN CO THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR NEAR THE UPDRAFT SOURCE REGION WILL SUPPORT A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL/HIGH WIND AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO. ..CARBIN.. 06/08/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU... 38950226 38740422 39090476 40750503 40870236 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 8 20:32:27 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 08 Jun 2004 15:32:27 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406082032.i58KW3223390@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 082030 SWOMCD SPC MCD 082029 WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-082230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1142 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0329 PM CDT TUE JUN 08 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MN/ERN NE/NRN IA/WRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 082029Z - 082230Z ...STORMS WILL BE INCREASING IN COVERAGE ALONG BOUNDARY THIS AFTN WITH MAIN SEVERE THREAT FROM LARGE HAIL... STORM NOW MOVING OVER PIERCE/MADISON COUNTIES IN NEB IS BECOMING SFC BASED ...AS THE STORM MOVES INTO AN AREA OF GREATER SFC INSTABILITY. THE AIRMASS ACROSS ERN NEB/NRN IA/SRN WI IS BECOMING VERY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 3000 J/KG. SFC BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM 40 NE BUB/30 NNW SUX/25 ESE MKT/30 WNW RHI...AND INSTABILITY NORTH AND WEST OF THE BOUNDARY IS OF COURSE LIMITED AND STORMS WILL BE ELEVATED. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK IN THE WARM SECTOR...BUT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY VALUES WILL BE AROUND 30 KT ACCORDING TO POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE 18Z RUC. SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH LARGE INSTABILITY MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED SVR TSTMS...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL. ..TAYLOR.. 06/08/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX... 41459496 41259698 42319771 43409542 44629364 44488793 42538781 42439106 41629406 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 8 21:36:26 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 08 Jun 2004 16:36:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406082136.i58La2203406@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 082132 SWOMCD SPC MCD 082131 KSZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-082330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1143 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0431 PM CDT TUE JUN 08 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN KS/SERN CO/ERN NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 082131Z - 082330Z ...TSTMS WILL POSE A WIND/HAIL THREAT NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN... ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS RELATIVELY WEAK...THE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE AROUND 50-60 DEGREES ACROSS SE CO/ERN NM RESULTING IN VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AROUND 10 C/KM. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS DEVELOPMENT ALONG STATIONARY FRONT VCNTY ITR/LAA. AS STORMS MOVE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...THEY WILL ENCOUNTER GREATER INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG. STORMS WILL BE MAINLY FOCUSED ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND/OR OUTFLOW OR OTHER SFC BOUNDARIES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. MAIN THREAT WILL LIKELY BE FROM DOWNBURST WINDS...WITH A SECONDARY THREAT OF LARGE HAIL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE WHICH MAY HELP SUSTAIN STORMS MOVING OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN INTO THE EVENING. ..TAYLOR.. 06/08/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...MAF...PUB...ABQ...EPZ... 32450571 33250576 35640533 37730414 39900111 39970040 39139982 36480311 33090406 32180455  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 8 22:26:02 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 08 Jun 2004 17:26:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406082225.i58MPc202624@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 082224 SWOMCD SPC MCD 082224 NEZ000-090030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1144 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0524 PM CDT TUE JUN 08 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SW...S CNTRL NEB CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 409... VALID 082224Z - 090030Z CONTINUE WW. INITIAL ATTEMPTS AT DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAVE BEEN SUPPRESSED BY LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC INHIBITION. HOWEVER...STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE REMAINS FOCUSED ACROSS THIS REGION ON NOSE OF 30 TO 50 KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET. ONGOING INCREASE IN CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO APPEARS REFLECTIVE OF FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK MID/UPPER SHORT WAVE...WHICH LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD IN BROADLY ANTICYCLONIC UPPER FLOW REGIME NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. AS THIS OCCURS...INCREASING LIFT IN CAPPING LAYER SHOULD WEAKEN INHIBITION...ALLOWING PARCELS TO REACH LEVEL OF FREE CONVECTION. GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF POTENTIAL INSTABILITY...WITH MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2500 J/KG... SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION IN INITIAL ACTIVITY... BEFORE CONVECTION MERGES/EVOLVES INTO LARGER MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SATEM. ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE VICINITY OF SHARP FRONTAL ZONE...BUT PRIMARY THREATS APPEAR TO BE HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS...EVENTUALLY LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. ..KERR.. 06/08/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD... 41130158 41440100 41749892 40639858 40349907 40160009 40030139 40390188 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 8 23:04:45 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 08 Jun 2004 18:04:45 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406082304.i58N4L224393@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 082303 SWOMCD SPC MCD 082302 NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-090100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1145 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0602 PM CDT TUE JUN 08 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO...NW KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 410... VALID 082302Z - 090100Z CONTINUE WW. PRE-FRONTAL THERMAL RIDGE...EXTENDING FROM EAST CENTRAL COLORADO THROUGH AREAS NEAR GOODLAND KS/NORTH PLATTE NEB...IS BECOMING FOCUS FOR INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THIS APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING LIFT IN CAPPING LAYER...ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK MID/UPPER SHORT WAVE MIGRATING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. STRONG HEATING WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 90S HAS CONTRIBUTED TO WEAKENING INHIBITION...AS HAS NORTHWESTWARD ADVECTION OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO VICINITY OF THERMAL RIDGE AXIS. FURTHER INCREASE/INTENSIFICATION WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWEST OF GOODLAND KS INTO THE IMPERIAL NEB AREA...WITH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL/ DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS IN MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. OTHER STRONG/SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPING NORTHEAST OF COLORADO SPRINGS APPEAR TO BE IN MOIST POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE ENVIRONMENT... WHERE STRONG VEERING WITH HEIGHT OF LOW/MID-LEVEL WIND FIELDS MAY BE SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST BRIEF UPDRAFT ROTATION. THIS WILL ENHANCE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH THIS ACTIVITY...WHICH WILL LIKELY BE SLOW TO WEAKEN/PROPAGATE AWAY FROM THE PALMER RIDGE. ..KERR.. 06/08/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU... 39730466 39930416 39830366 39750293 40480210 40910161 40620110 39840181 39030234 38590250 38410297 38580348 38830466 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 8 23:46:28 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 08 Jun 2004 18:46:28 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406082346.i58Nk4212594@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 082345 SWOMCD SPC MCD 082344 IAZ000-MNZ000-090145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1146 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0644 PM CDT TUE JUN 08 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 411... VALID 082344Z - 090145Z CONTINUE WW. SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY HAVE SUGGESTED ONGOING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EAST NORTHEAST OF SIOUX CITY IA HAS BEEN SUPPORTED BY FOCUSED AREA OF ENHANCED UPPER DIVERGENCE AND WEAK MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION. THIS FEATURE...PERHAPS ASSOCIATED WITH PRIOR CONVECTIVE CLUSTER...IS EMBEDDED WITHIN MOIST PLUME TO THE SOUTH OF STRONGER WESTERLIES...ABOVE LOW/MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA. GIVEN FAVORABLE FORCING...VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LIKELY WILL CONTINUE NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTH OF FORT DODGE INTO THE MASON CITY AREA NEXT FEW HOURS...SLOWLY MERGING INTO LARGER CONVECTIVE CLUSTER. ROOTED IN VERY MOIST UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 70F SURFACE DEW POINTS/MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 3000 J/KG...STRONG UPDRAFTS ARE LIKELY...CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING VERY HEAVY RAIN...PERHAPS SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL DESPITE WEAK SHEAR PROFILES. THOUGH LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STEEP...MID-LEVELS ARE RELATIVELY DRY...AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SLOW EVOLUTION OF SURFACE COLD POOL/GUST FRONT. ..KERR.. 06/08/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD... 43239516 43599375 43609314 43029267 42369292 42019380 41849454 41899528 42589543 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 9 00:55:42 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 08 Jun 2004 19:55:42 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406090055.i590tc217125@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 090054 SWOMCD SPC MCD 090054 WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-090300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1147 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0754 PM CDT TUE JUN 08 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SE MN THROUGH S CNTRL WI CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 090054Z - 090300Z NEW WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. DOWNSTREAM OF POSSIBLE ORGANIZING CLUSTER OF STORMS...NOW TO THE WEST OF MASON CITY IA...LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE/DEFORMATION ZONE EXTENDS EAST NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THIS IS BECOMING A FOCUS FOR INCREASING CONVECTION...IN VERY MOIST UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 2000 TO 3000 J/KG. RATHER WARM THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AND WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR MAY MARGINALIZE HAIL POTENTIAL...BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS NEAR STRONGER CORES ARE POSSIBLE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH ONSET OF SURFACE COOLING...ACTIVITY WILL BECOME ROOTED ABOVE SHALLOW SURFACE INVERSION...TRAINING ALONG/NORTH OF 20 TO 30 KT WEST SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS. IF UPSTREAM CLUSTER CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE/DEVELOP A SURFACE COLD POOL...THIS APPEARS TO PROVIDE BEST POTENTIAL FOR POTENTIALLY DAMAGING SURFACE GUSTS AS IT PROPAGATES NORTH/NORTHEAST OF WATERLOO...TOWARD THE LA CROSSE AREA BY 05-06Z. ..KERR.. 06/09/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX...DMX... 43899256 44489198 44529070 44248827 43708768 43218798 43148969 43019084 42779160 42799265 43019286 43229278 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 9 01:21:46 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 08 Jun 2004 20:21:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406090121.i591LM230492@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 090120 SWOMCD SPC MCD 090120 NEZ000-SDZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-090315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1148 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0820 PM CDT TUE JUN 08 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CNTRL NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 090120Z - 090315Z WWS 409/410 MAY BE REPLACED WITH NEW WW BY 02Z...BUT FINAL DETERMINATION WILL BE MADE AFTER COORDINATION WITH AFFECTED WFOS. SOUNDING FROM NORTH PLATTE INDICATES MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN STEEP AND SUPPORTIVE OF CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG. THIS MAY BECOME GREATER THIS EVENING AS NORTHWARD MOISTURE RETURN CONTRIBUTES TO MOISTENING ABOVE FRONTAL INVERSION ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL NEBRASKA. AS UPPER FLOW PATTERN AMPLIFIES IN RESPONSE TO DIGGING UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST...MODELS SUGGEST STRONGEST FORCING ON NOSE OF SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD OUT OF SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA BETWEEN NOW AND 06Z. FARTHER NORTH OF LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE...AREA OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION HAS BEEN SUPPORTING VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTH OF VALENTINE NEB...PAST FEW HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN...AS UPSTREAM NORTHEAST COLORADO/SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA CONVECTION SPREADS/DEVELOPS NORTHWARD. ..KERR.. 06/09/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...GID...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS... 40090063 39750191 40070308 41430301 42090189 42790122 43460024 43469929 42699878 41779853 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 9 04:59:47 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 08 Jun 2004 23:59:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406090459.i594xN216129@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 090458 SWOMCD SPC MCD 090458 NEZ000-SDZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-090700- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1149 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1158 PM CDT TUE JUN 08 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 412... VALID 090458Z - 090700Z CONTINUE WW. INTENSE CONVECTION PERSISTS IN SMALL CLUSTER NEAR MCCOOK...WHERE ISENTROPIC ASCENT HAS STEEPENED ALONG LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS...ABOVE COLD SURFACE RIDGE WHICH HAS NOSED SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS. ACTIVITY MAY BE ENHANCED BY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL TROUGH/VORTICITY CENTER AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF FOCUSED UPPER DIVERGENCE. UNTIL THIS FORCING WEAKENS...SLOWLY DRIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT...RISK OF STRONG UPDRAFTS WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL CONTINUE IN MODERATELY UNSTABLE...WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. ..KERR.. 06/09/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...GID...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS... 40090063 39750191 40070308 41430301 42090189 42790122 43460024 43469929 42699878 41779853 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 9 06:06:22 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 09 Jun 2004 01:06:22 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406090605.i5965w214957@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 090603 SWOMCD SPC MCD 090603 NEZ000-KSZ000-090630- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1150 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0103 AM CDT WED JUN 09 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN NEB AND NWRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 412... VALID 090603Z - 090630Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 412 IS SET TO EXPIRE AT 0700 UTC...BUT IF CURRENT DOWNWARD TREND IN CONVECTION CONTINUES...IT WILL BE CANCELLED EARLY. PROFILERS ARE SHOWING AROUND 35 KTS SLY LLJ EXTENDING FROM WRN OK INTO SWRN NEB. ENHANCED WARM ADVECTION HAS SUPPORTED STRONG TSTMS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. HOWEVER...THE TREND WILL BE FOR THE LLJ TO VEER QUICKLY TO A MORE SWLY DIRECTION PER THE 0300 UTC RUC AND THE SWRN KS PROFILERS MAY BE INDICATING A SLIGHT VEERING OVER THE PAST HOUR. AS A RESULT...CURRENT WEAKENING OF THE CONVECTION VCNTY MCCOOK MAY BE A PERMANENT TREND. ..RACY.. 06/09/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD... 39250188 40520192 41719980 40419970 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 9 14:12:54 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 09 Jun 2004 09:12:54 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406091412.i59ECV227301@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 091411 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091411 MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-091615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1151 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0911 AM CDT WED JUN 09 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN NY...VT...NH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 091411Z - 091615Z CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN NY AND NRN/CNTRL VT AND NRN NH INTO THE AFTERNOON. A SEVERE TSTM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION BEFORE NOON. SMALL SCALE LINEAR MCS WAS MOVING EAST AT ABOUT 40KT AND WILL CROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER AND MOVE INTO NRN NY SHORTLY. AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE ONGOING STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE WHICH COULD SUPPORT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN STORM INTENSITY AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD WIND DAMAGE. STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE FURTHER AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AND STORMS DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...NOW SITUATED NORTH OF THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. HOWEVER...LATEST ETA RUN APPEARS TO BACK OFF A BIT ON CONVECTIVE QPF AND STRENGTH OF UVV ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT COMPARED TO EARLIER MODEL RUNS. NONETHELESS...MODERATE AND WEAKLY CAPPED INSTABILITY IN THE PRESENCE OF MODEST AND INCREASING MID LEVEL FLOW...AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL THROUGH THE DAY. ..CARBIN.. 06/09/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF... 43697244 43287683 45467597 45267096 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 9 15:24:53 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 09 Jun 2004 10:24:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406091524.i59FOY213782@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 091521 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091521 MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-091715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1152 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1021 AM CDT WED JUN 09 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LWR MI...NRN IND...NWRN OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 091521Z - 091715Z POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE TSTMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS PARTS OF LWR MI/NRN IND AND NWRN OH INTO THE AFTERNOON. A SEVERE TSTM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED OVER THE REGION BY AFTERNOON. LATEST MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS SRN LOWER MI WITH OBJECTIVE DATA SUGGESTING WEAKLY CAPPED MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 2000-2500 J/KG. CONTINUATION OF STRONG SURFACE HEATING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SHOULD FURTHER BOOST INSTABILITY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. A CLUSTER OF STORMS CURRENTLY DRIFTING EAST OVER SWRN MI MAY INTENSIFY AS THIS INSTABILITY IS TAPPED. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT SAGS SWD INTO THE INSTABILITY AXIS THIS AFTERNOON. RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR PROFILES... WITH 20-30KT WLY FLOW THROUGH THE TROPOSPHERE...SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT OFFSET BY FRONTAL CIRCULATION...MAGNITUDE OF CAPE...AND ANTICIPATED STORM COVERAGE TO RESULT IN A NUMBER OF STRONG TO SEVERE DAMAGING WIND EVENTS. ..CARBIN.. 06/09/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR... 41458323 41308585 41368687 43218653 43918263 42918239  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 9 17:06:55 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 09 Jun 2004 12:06:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406091706.i59H6b222369@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 091705 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091704 MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-091830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1153 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1204 PM CDT WED JUN 09 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MA...NH...ME CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 091704Z - 091830Z A SEVERE TSTM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED SHORTLY FOR PORTIONS OF NH AND ME...AND POSSIBLY PARTS OF NRN/NERN MA. STORMS MOVING ESEWD AT 45KT ACROSS NRN VT ATTM SHOULD MAINTAIN INTENSITY AS GREATER SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY IS REALIZED. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CURRENT WATCH AND INTO NRN NH WITHIN THE HOUR. ADDITIONAL TSTMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF SRN QUEBEC COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS PARTS OF NRN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. INCREASING WLY MID LEVEL FLOW AND FRONTAL FORCING...COUPLED WITH STRONG INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUING THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL. ..CARBIN.. 06/09/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV... 44567147 45717046 46746969 46366829 44556787 42657111 42807251 44127201 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 9 18:42:36 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 09 Jun 2004 13:42:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406091842.i59IgC226932@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 091841 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091841 NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-092015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1154 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0141 PM CDT WED JUN 09 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN NY AND VT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 413... VALID 091841Z - 092015Z WHILE INITIAL BROKEN LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS HAS MOVED EAST OF WATCH 413 AND INTO NH...NEW DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND HAS WAS INTENSIFYING ACROSS PARTS OF ST. LAWRENCE AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN NRN NY. MORE ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING FARTHER UPSTREAM ON THE ACTUAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SRN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PARAMETERS ACROSS THE WATCH AREA WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ..CARBIN.. 06/09/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF... 42317748 43907754 45077230 43477230 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 9 18:43:57 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 09 Jun 2004 13:43:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406091843.i59IhX227728@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 091842 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091842 NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-092015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1155 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0142 PM CDT WED JUN 09 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 091842Z - 092015Z ...CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING CLOSELY MONITORED ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE AND A WATCH MAY BE ISSUED BY AROUND 20Z... A BOUNDARY IS APPARENT IN THE DENVER RADAR REFLECTIVITY IMAGERY...WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW OBSERVED AT COLORADO SPRINGS...EASTERLY FLOW AT DENVER AND NORTHEAST FLOW AT BOULDER IMPLYING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES ARE NOT VERY STRONG YET...WITH ONLY ABOUT 20-25 KT OF MID LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER...DIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE VERY FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS AND SFC DEWPOINTS ARE INCREASING INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S. A STORM RECENTLY TRIED TO FORM OVER DOUGLAS COUNTY CO...AND THIS APPEARS TO BE SURFACE BASED. ALTHOUGH THIS STORM IS WEAKENING...THE FACT THAT IT FORMED SUGGESTS THAT OTHER SFC BASED DEVELOPMENT MAY BE IMMINENT. THE MODIFIED SOUNDING AT DENVER GIVEN LATEST OBS IS PARTIALLY CAPPED...BUT A FEW MORE DEGREES OF WARMING INTO THE LOW 80S SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME THE INHIBITION. WITH SFC MOISTURE INCREASING AND FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES...ANY SFC BASED STORM WHICH FORMS WILL LIKELY ROTATE AND THUS BE A TORNADO/LARGE HAIL THREAT. ..TAYLOR.. 06/09/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU... 37070248 37150359 38580463 40070494 40840472 40980383 40980214 40530196 37860198 37110207 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 9 18:53:30 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 09 Jun 2004 13:53:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406091853.i59Ir8202355@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 091852 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091851 OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-092015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1156 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0151 PM CDT WED JUN 09 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LWR MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 414... VALID 091851Z - 092015Z NUMEROUS STRONG AND SEVERE TSTMS CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY EAST ACROSS SERN LWR MI WITHIN VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. A FEW CELLS HAVE DEVELOPED SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS AFTER ENCOUNTERING LOCALLY ENHANCED STORM-SCALE SHEAR PROBABLY DUE TO LAKE BREEZE/OUTFLOW INTERACTIONS. OVERALL...SHEAR AND INSTABILITY PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT WIND AND/OR HAIL WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT ACROSS THE REMAINING VALID PORTIONS OF THE WATCH. ..CARBIN.. 06/09/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR... 41438536 43678536 43658250 41338247 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 9 19:24:51 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 09 Jun 2004 14:24:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406091924.i59JOR223175@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 091920 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091920 MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-092045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1157 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0220 PM CDT WED JUN 09 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NH AND ME CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 416... VALID 091920Z - 092045Z BROKEN LINE OF STRONG TSTMS WERE MOVING SEWD AT 40KT AND TOWARD INSTABILITY AXIS JUST INLAND FROM THE ME COAST. RECENT RADAR IMAGES FROM GYX WERE INDICATING A SLIGHT WEAKENING TREND WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ISOLD STRONGER CELLS MOVING ACROSS SRN FRANKLIN COUNTY AND SRN ANDROSCOGGIN COUNTY. NUMEROUS WIND DAMAGE REPORTS OCCURRED AS THESE STORMS MOVED ACROSS VT/NH AND EXPECT THIS HAZARD SHOULD CONTINUE AS THE STORMS/OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS VERY WARM AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE AFTER THIS INITIAL ROUND OF STORMS AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW LATER TODAY. ..CARBIN.. 06/09/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV... 43037207 45027210 45046708 43106707 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 9 19:47:26 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 09 Jun 2004 14:47:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406091947.i59Jl8205000@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 091944 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091944 NYZ000-PAZ000-OHZ000-092115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1158 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0244 PM CDT WED JUN 09 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN OH...NWRN PA...WRN NY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 415... VALID 091944Z - 092115Z CURRENTLY ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG TSTMS EXIST ACROSS TSTM WATCH 415. HOWEVER...STRONG TO SEVERE ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING UPSTREAM ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER SWRN ONTARIO...AS WELL AS ON A SQUALL LINE MOVING SEWD FROM LWR MI. RECENT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM PULSE STORMS OVER NRN OH HAVE COLLIDED WITH THE LAKE BREEZE FRONT ACROSS NRN OH AND THIS MAY SPUR BRIEF STORM INTENSIFICATION. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS ALL OF THE WATCH AREA INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON. ..CARBIN.. 06/09/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...ILN... 40188301 41768301 43327768 41747768 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 9 20:18:43 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 09 Jun 2004 15:18:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406092018.i59KII225008@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 092013 SWOMCD SPC MCD 092013 WYZ000-MTZ000-IDZ000-092145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1159 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0313 PM CDT WED JUN 09 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ID AND SWRN MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 092013Z - 092145Z TSTMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS COULD BE SEVERE AND A WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED SHORTLY. CONVECTION HAS INCREASED ACROSS THE TETONS AND BITTERROOTS THIS AFTERNOON AS DIFFERENTIAL HEATING...UPSLOPE FLOW...AND STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITHIN EXIT REGION OF MID LEVEL JET ACT ON DESTABILIZING AIRMASS. LATEST POINT FORECAST SOUNDING DATA FROM ACROSS THE REGION SUGGEST MLCAPE COULD INCREASE TO BETWEEN 500-1200 J/KG AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AND STRONG HEATING CONTINUES. THIS INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE TO MAINTAIN STORMS DEVELOPING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SERN ID. VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WILL ONLY STRENGTHEN FURTHER AS MID LEVEL WIND MAX MOVES OVER THE AREA. EXPECT INCREASING CHANCE OF FAST MOVING STORMS...POSSIBLY SUPERCELLS...GENERATING HIGH/DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. ..CARBIN.. 06/09/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RIW...TFX...SLC...PIH...MSO...BOI... 42091101 42061508 43251573 44631432 45791363 45521106 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 9 20:25:36 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 09 Jun 2004 15:25:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406092025.i59KPD229475@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 092022 SWOMCD SPC MCD 092021 NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-092115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1160 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0321 PM CDT WED JUN 09 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CNTRL NY/WRN VT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 413... VALID 092021Z - 092115Z ...WW 413 WILL LIKELY BE REPLACED... COLD FRONT STILL LIES NORTHWEST OF THE AREA...ALONG WITH MORE STRONG/SVR STORMS WHICH HAVE FORMED ALONG AND EAST OF THE FRONT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR FROM LATEST OBSERVATIONAL ANALYSIS SUGGESTS VALUES REMAIN AROUND 30-35 KT...WITHIN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS / 2500 J/KG / IN THE WARM SECTOR. THE STORMS WILL MOVE INTO WRN NY/VT AND BE WELL MAINTAINED WITHIN MDT WLY FLOW ALOFT. A NEW WW WILL BE ISSUED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. ..TAYLOR.. 06/09/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF... 43467229 42377746 43937747 45087226 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 9 22:29:57 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 09 Jun 2004 17:29:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406092229.i59MTY208828@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 092229 SWOMCD SPC MCD 092228 MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-092330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1162 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0528 PM CDT WED JUN 09 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NY...NH...VT...MA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 419... VALID 092228Z - 092330Z ...SQUALL LINE APPEARS TO BE ORGANIZING/INTENSIFYING ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN PORTIONS OF WW... STORM MERGERS ALONG WITH EXPANDING CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS APPEAR TO BE ORGANIZING INTO A MORE ORGANIZED BAND FROM SRN PORTIONS OF VT/NH...WWD ACROSS CENTRAL NY. THIS LEADING ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE PROPAGATING SEWD INTO A FAIRLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY SBCAPES IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS NOT THAT STRONG...INCREASING PRECIP SHIELD MAY ENHANCE COLD POOL WHICH WOULD LEAD TO A MORE EFFICIENT WIND PRODUCING SQUALL LINE. ..DARROW.. 06/09/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF... 43497648 43897358 43057019 42687160 42257587 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 9 22:44:27 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 09 Jun 2004 17:44:27 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406092244.i59Mi3218308@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 092243 SWOMCD SPC MCD 092242 KSZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-NEZ000-NMZ000-SDZ000-WYZ000-100015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1163 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0542 PM CDT WED JUN 09 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN WY/ERN CO/NEB PANHANDLE CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 417... VALID 092242Z - 100015Z TORNADO POTENTIAL CONTINUES ACROSS THE WW...WITH FAVORABLE DIRECTIONAL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR. RECENT PLATTEVILLE PROFILER SHOWS 40 KT ELY FLOW IN THE LOWEST LAYER...WITH WINDS SHARPLY VEERING WITH HEIGHT IN THE LOWEST 3 KM. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS BEING MAXIMIZED E OF DENVER...WHERE WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO NW BUT S/SELY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE SERN PORTION OF THE WATCH. MYRIAD OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES NOTED ACROSS NERN CO...AND TORNADO POTENTIAL COULD BE LOCALLY ENHANCED GIVEN POSITIVE SUPERCELL ENVIRONMENT. STORM ACROSS ADAMS COUNTY HAS HAD AT LEAST 1 TORNADO PER RECENT STORM REPORTS. STORMS IN WRN KS ARE MOVING W AND WILL EVENTUALLY COLLIDE WITH SERN CO STORMS. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR DECREASES ACROSS SE CO...SUPERCELLS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES IN THIS AREA AS WELL. ..TAYLOR.. 06/09/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DDC...UNR...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...CYS...ABQ...RIW... 43140397 43160719 36960428 37000142 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 9 22:56:09 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 09 Jun 2004 17:56:09 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406092255.i59Mtk225277@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 092254 SWOMCD SPC MCD 092254 MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-100030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1164 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0554 PM CDT WED JUN 09 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF SRN/CENTRAL OK INTO SERN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 092254Z - 100030Z ...ISOLATED BRIEF WEAK TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS FROM SRN OK INTO SERN KS... REGIONAL RADAR DATA SUGGEST A WEAK MESOSCALE CIRCULATION HAS EVOLVED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL OK IN THE VICINITY OF MURRAY COUNTY. THIS FEATURE IS LIFTING NNEWD AND APPEARS TO BE ORGANIZING SOMEWHAT WITHIN A BROADER ZONE OF CONVECTION. IT APPEARS THIS FEATURE MAY BE AIDING SCATTERED LOW TOPPED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITHIN WARM ADVECTION BAND FROM THE CIRCULATION CENTER...NEWD TOWARD LINCOLN COUNTY OK. MOST RECENT DIAGNOSTIC DATA INDICATES LOW LEVEL SHEAR...ON THE ORDER OF 30-35KT IN THE LOWEST 1KM... WILL CERTAINLY SUPPORT SOME THREAT FOR BRIEF WEAK TORNADOES WITH THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS. ..DARROW.. 06/09/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN... 43497648 43897358 43057019 42687160 42257587 34599827 36289761 37659580 37089454 35809535 34579620 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 10 00:00:29 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 09 Jun 2004 19:00:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406100000.i5A005225571@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 092359 SWOMCD SPC MCD 092359 MTZ000-IDZ000-NVZ000-100130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1165 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0659 PM CDT WED JUN 09 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN MT/ERN ID CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 418... VALID 092359Z - 100130Z ...MAIN THREAT WILL BE FROM MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL... LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS STATIONARY SFC FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR LANDER WY TO DILLON MT TO PULLMAN WA. MAIN SHEAR/VORTICITY AXIS NOW OVER ERN OREGON/SRN NV WILL PROGRESS EWD ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALE LIFT ACROSS ID/MT. THE STEEPEST LAPSE RATES ARE ACROSS S CNTRL ID WHERE SFC INSOLATION HAS BEEN THE GREATEST. ANY SFC BASED STORMS THAT COULD INITIATE IN THIS AREA MAY HAVE SOME POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE GIVEN 40-50 DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS. HOWEVER...MAIN THREAT APPEARS TO BE FROM MARGINALLY LARGE HAIL WITH VERY LOW WBZ LEVELS AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AOA 50-60 KT. ..TAYLOR.. 06/09/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TFX...SLC...PIH...MSO...BOI...LKN... 46921505 41981531 42011153 46961095 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 10 00:15:40 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 09 Jun 2004 19:15:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406100015.i5A0FH200712@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 100013 SWOMCD SPC MCD 100012 PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-100115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1166 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0712 PM CDT WED JUN 09 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...OH...WRN PA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 420... VALID 100012Z - 100115Z ...THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN ACROSS THE WW... ONSET OF BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING WILL PROVE DETRIMENTAL TO STORM INTENSITY ACROSS MUCH OF OH AND WRN PA AS ONGOING ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE SEWD ACROSS WW. ALTHOUGH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL SPREAD INTO WRN PORTIONS OF WATCH OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED WITH MOST ACTIVITY. ..DARROW.. 06/10/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN... 40758315 41458024 41357790 40817961 39668193 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 10 03:39:07 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 09 Jun 2004 22:39:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406100338.i5A3cq232484@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 100338 SWOMCD SPC MCD 100337 KSZ000-NEZ000-100430- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1167 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1037 PM CDT WED JUN 09 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN KS...WRN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 423... VALID 100337Z - 100430Z ...MCS WILL SPREAD ACROSS REMAINDER OF WW OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS... MCS HAS EVOLVED OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS FROM WRN NEB...ARCING ACROSS WRN KS. THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE ENEWD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NEB WHERE A WELL DEFINED WARM FRONT IS SLOWLY RETREATING NWD. WITH STRONGEST LLJ/WARM ADVECTION EXTENDING FROM NEB INTO SERN MT...IT APPEARS NRN PORTIONS OF MCS WILL MOVE EAST OF WW OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SEVERE THREAT IS GRADUALLY DECREASING WITH THIS ORGANIZED BAND OF CONVECTION. ..DARROW.. 06/10/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...CYS... 38220157 40740181 42050275 42760309 42780173 41080036 39020009 37910042 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 10 07:00:18 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 10 Jun 2004 02:00:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406100659.i5A6xt216525@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 100659 SWOMCD SPC MCD 100658 TXZ000-100830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1168 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0158 AM CDT THU JUN 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL TX CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 100658Z - 100830Z THERE WILL BE AN ISOLD BRIEF TORNADO THREAT ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL TX OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A WEATHER WATCH SHOULD NOT BE NECESSARY...UNLESS AN UPSWING IN TSTM COVERAGE IS NOTED. VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE MAIN PART OF THE SYNOPTIC UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SHIFTING NEWD INTO SCNTRL TX ATTM. THERE WAS A BRIEF LULL IN CONVECTION IN WAKE OF THE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO NERN TX. SINCE 06 UTC...HOWEVER...TSTMS HAVE INTENSIFIED OVER ERN PARTS OF CNTRL TX BETWEEN COLLEGE STATION AND KILLEEN AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM IMPULSE. THE AIR MASS REMAINS VERY MOIST ACROSS THE REGION WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MID 70S. STRONGEST INSTABILITY AXIS IS SITUATED FROM THE MIDDLE TX COAST NWWD INTO THE HILL COUNTRY...SO AS TSTMS MOVE NWD INTO NCNTRL TX THEY MAY TEND TO DIMINISH. HOWEVER... THERE SEEMS TO BE A TREND FOR TSTMS TO INTENSIFY WITHIN CONVECTIVE BAND NEAR BRENHAM AND FAYETTE (K11R/K3T5) WITH STORMS MOVING NWD. RUC2 PROXIMITY FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS 30-35 KTS WITH 0-1KM SRH OF 150-200 M2/S2 AND THIS IS CONFIRMED BY AREA VWPS. THUS...ANY TSTM WILL BE CAPABLE OF A BRIEF TORNADO. GREATEST THREAT APPEARS TO BE IN AN AREA BOUNDED BY AUSTIN TO WACO EWD TO HUNTSVILLE AND BRENHAM. HOWEVER...GIVEN STRONGER INSTABILITY AXIS FARTHER SOUTH AND THE INFLUENCE OF THE DISTURBANCE STILL TO PASS THROUGH...CANNOT RULE OUT TSTMS FORMING FARTHER SOUTH IN AREAS EAST OF SAN ANTONIO TO NEAR HOUSTON. ..RACY.. 06/10/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX... 29339778 30709742 31989708 32099639 31869562 30069552 29479564 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 10 16:48:09 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 10 Jun 2004 11:48:09 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406101647.i5AGlq201906@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 101646 SWOMCD SPC MCD 101646 ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-101815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1169 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1146 AM CDT THU JUN 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/NRN MO....SRN/CNTRL IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 101646Z - 101815Z TSTM COVERAGE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS PARTS OF NRN MO AND SWRN/CNTRL IL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT CURRENTLY APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH SOME CHANCE FOR TORNADOES GIVEN VERY MOIST TROPICAL AIRMASS AND LOW LFC. A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED. AIRMASS ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY REGION CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE IN THE WAKE OF LARGE RAIN SHIELD NOW LIFTING NEWD ACROSS ERN IA AND NRN IL. MEANWHILE...WELL-DEFINED MID LEVEL IMPULSE OF TROPICAL/SRN STREAM ORIGIN WAS LIFTING NEWD ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR FROM THE OZARKS. COMBINATION OF WEAKLY CAPPED...VERY MOIST...AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS...AND ASCENT/STRONGER FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL IMPULSE...SHOULD FAVOR AN INCREASE IN ORGANIZED WARM SECTOR CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF MO AND IL INTO THE AFTERNOON. DIFFERENTIAL HEATING/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN THE WAKE OF RAIN SHIELD OVER IL HAS LOCALLY BACKED FLOW IN THIS AREA AND AREA PROFILER DATA APPEARS TO SUPPORT SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR LOW LEVEL STORM ROTATION. AS ACTIVITY INCREASES AND TAPS INTO MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY...TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE. ..CARBIN.. 06/10/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX... 37539095 38439436 39589493 40259463 40599373 40379246 40149009 39938784 38618814 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 10 17:33:20 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 10 Jun 2004 12:33:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406101732.i5AHWv232555@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 101732 SWOMCD SPC MCD 101731 NJZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-101930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1170 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1231 PM CDT THU JUN 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN PA...NJ...MD...DE...ERN WV...VA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 101731Z - 101930Z STRONG AND OCCASIONAL SEVERE TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS A LARGE AREA FROM SERN PA AND NJ SWD OVER THE DELMARVA REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERE TSTM WATCHES MAY BE NEEDED OVER PARTS OF THE REGION IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS PA THIS AFTERNOON WITH MODEST DESTABILIZATION OCCURRING AHEAD OF IT. A FEW STRONGER STORMS HAVE NOW DEVELOPED ON THE FRONT OVER NERN PA AND THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO GREATER INSTABILITY ACROSS SERN PA AND SRN NJ THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL STORMS HAVE BEEN FORMING OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE APPALACHIANS AND THIS CONVECTION WILL ALSO SPREAD EAST INTO VERY MOIST AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS FROM THE WV PNHDL TO DELMARVA. STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW TO AID STORM ORGANIZATION WILL EXIST ACROSS NRN AREAS NEAR THE FRONT AND INCREASING OUTFLOW FROM STORM CLUSTERS/LINES IN THIS AREA MAY EVENTUALLY ORGANIZE SUFFICIENTLY TO POSE A DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS HIGHER INSTABILITY IS REALIZED. FARTHER SOUTH...WEAKER NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW CURRENTLY AROUND 15KT IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INCREASE LATER TODAY. GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE DELMARVA AREA...PULSE AND MULTICELL ACTIVITY MAY BECOME INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED AND POSE SOME THREAT OF WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL. ..CARBIN.. 06/10/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX... 40887639 41177474 40347394 39137483 38387533 36987662 36688117 37008161 39887947 41117821 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 10 18:16:49 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 10 Jun 2004 13:16:49 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406101816.i5AIGQ227086@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 101814 SWOMCD SPC MCD 101814 SDZ000-NEZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-101945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1171 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0114 PM CDT THU JUN 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN WY/NEB PANHANDLE/SWRN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 101814Z - 101945Z ...TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY ACROSS WRN PARTS OF NEB/SD AND A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO... STRONG MID LEVEL IMPULSE IS NOW EJECTING NWD ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF LARGER SCALE DEEP WRN TROUGH. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG DIFFLUENCE WITHIN EXIT REGION OF MID/UPPER JET WILL CONTINUE TO ACT ON INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL/NRN HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLD ACTIVITY WAS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE WARM FRONT OVER SWRN SD AND EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY NEXT FEW HOURS. STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE SURFACE TO 500MB LAYER WILL INITIALLY SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. LOCALLY BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW NEAR THE WARM FRONT COUPLED WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX INTO DEVELOPING LEE-SIDE LOW WILL ENHANCE TORNADO POTENTIAL WITH TIME. ..TAYLOR/CARBIN.. 06/10/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS...BYZ... 42560429 43920578 44770549 45510310 44410012 43630011 42510057 41420233 41440363 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 10 20:40:55 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 10 Jun 2004 15:40:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406102040.i5AKeb224255@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 102038 SWOMCD SPC MCD 102037 OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-102200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1172 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0337 PM CDT THU JUN 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN KS...ERN OK/TX PNHDLS...WRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 102037Z - 102200Z ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE FROM WRN KS SWD TO THE ERN TX PNHDL AND WRN OK LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED OVER PARTS OF THIS REGION. DRYLINE IS MIXING EAST INTO VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST WARM SECTOR SOUNDINGS STILL EXHIBIT SOME CONVECTIVE INHIBITION BUT RUC SOUNDINGS ADJUSTED FOR ANTICIPATED SURFACE CONDITIONS REVEAL THAT CAP SHOULD BE LOCALLY WEAKENED FOR STORM INITIATION AFTER 21Z/4PM CDT. MODEST DIFFERENTIAL DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF LARGE WRN U.S. TROUGH MAY FURTHER AID STORM INITIATION/DEVELOPMENT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE ADEQUATE FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION GIVEN 15-30KT SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TOPPED BY STRONGER SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO STORM COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION GIVEN CURRENT STRENGTH OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. HOWEVER...ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL LIKELY EXHIBIT SUPERCELLS CHARACTERISTICS AND COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...HIGH WINDS...AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO. ..CARBIN.. 06/10/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA... 38219913 35499935 34419988 34500043 35230091 36570043 37460045 37990098 38410150 39910122 39910066 39939955 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 10 21:00:58 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 10 Jun 2004 16:00:58 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406102100.i5AL0a205068@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 102056 SWOMCD SPC MCD 102056 NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-102230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1173 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0356 PM CDT THU JUN 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN PA...SRN NJ...DELMARVA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 424... VALID 102056Z - 102230Z COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DROP SWD INTO NRN PARTS OF WW 424. WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG TSTMS ARE MOVING INTO THE WATCH AREA AT THIS TIME AND AIRMASS REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED BELOW SEVERE LIMITS AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS WEAK. HOWEVER... MID LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO INCREASE GRADUALLY INTO THE EVENING AND IT APPEARS AT LEAST A FEW STORMS COULD STILL PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR SOME HAIL. ..CARBIN.. 06/10/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX... 37987591 37977878 40347668 40377367 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 10 21:48:06 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 10 Jun 2004 16:48:06 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406102147.i5ALlh205281@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 102146 SWOMCD SPC MCD 102145 MTZ000-WYZ000-102315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1174 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0445 PM CDT THU JUN 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MT INTO N-CNTRL WY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 102145Z - 102315Z STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. WW MAY BE REQUIRED. TSTMS HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR FROM SHERIDAN COUNTY WY NEWD INTO CUSTER/ROSEBUD COUNTIES IN SERN MT. COMBINATION OF STRONGLY DIVERGENT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AND ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE N/NE OF SURFACE LOW LOCATED NEAR SHR AS OF 21Z ARE LIKELY PROMOTING STRONG...DEEP-LAYER ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION. 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPES COUPLED WITH 40-50KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED TSTMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. THOUGH LARGE HAIL WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT /GIVEN THE FAVORABLY LOW WBZ HEIGHTS OF 5-7KFT/...BACKED NATURE OF LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL. ..MEAD.. 06/10/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ...GGW...RIW... 44570821 45540851 46870733 47010546 46460516 45870521 45030492 44320669 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 10 22:00:54 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 10 Jun 2004 17:00:54 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406102200.i5AM0V212651@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 102159 SWOMCD SPC MCD 102159 NEZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-102330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1175 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0459 PM CDT THU JUN 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MT/WRN SD/NEB PANHANDLE/FAR NERN CO CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 425... VALID 102159Z - 102330Z ...TORNADIC SUPERCELLS CONTINUE ACROSS WRN NEB... ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ACROSS WRN NEB. SEVERAL TORNADOES HAVE ALREADY BEEN REPORTED IN DEUEL COUNTY...WHERE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY FROM NORTH PLATTE SHOW A LONG LIVED CIRCULATION. PROFILERS/VAD DATA INDICATE GOOD DIRECTIONAL/SPEED SHEAR WHICH WILL SUPPORT THE SUPERCELL MODE FOR A NUMBER OF HOURS THIS EVENING. STORMS ACROSS WRN SD WILL HAVE A HIGHER THREAT FOR STRONG WINDS/LARGE HAIL...PARTICULARLY THE STORM NOW OVER ZIEBACK/HAAKON COUNTIES WHICH WILL BE MOVING INTO WW #427 SHORTLY. THIS AREA ACROSS CNTRL SD APPEARS TO BE LESS CAPPED...AND STORMS WILL LIKELY TRANSITION TO A MORE LINEAR MODE WITH COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT. ..TAYLOR.. 06/10/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR...CYS...BYZ... 41100027 41110329 45910512 45950186 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 10 22:31:59 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 10 Jun 2004 17:31:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406102231.i5AMVa231853@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 102230 SWOMCD SPC MCD 102230 INZ000-ILZ000-110000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1176 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0530 PM CDT THU JUN 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IL/NWRN IN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 102230Z - 110000Z ...ADDITIONAL WATCH MAY BE NEEDED... SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT LIES ACROSS NRN IL JUST SOUTH OF CHICAGO AND INTO NRN INDIANA. ANOTHER BOUNDARY...PERHAPS FORMED BY DIFFERENTIAL HEATING...EXTENDS ALONG A MACOMB/DECATUR LINE ACROSS CNTRL IL. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO BOUNDARIES...ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS ARE SELY WITH RICH SFC MOISTURE / DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW/MID 70S / . WV IMAGERY SHOWS A VORT MAX OVER NRN MO...WHICH WILL ENHANCE LARGE SCALE LIFT AND INCREASE DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS IL/IN TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 20-40 KT AFTER 00Z TONIGHT WHICH WILL MAINTAIN HIGH VALUES OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR. LATEST VAD WINDS FROM ST. LOUIS SUGGEST 0-1KM SHEAR VALUES ALREADY IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE. THREAT WILL INCREASE FOR MINI-SUPERCELLS THROUGH THE EVENING AS SRN BOUNDARY MOVES NORTH...AND WIND FIELDS STRENGTHEN. ..TAYLOR.. 06/10/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...DVN... 40308658 41379025 42498964 41828764 41258611 40408623 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 10 23:09:48 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 10 Jun 2004 18:09:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406102309.i5AN9Q220819@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 102308 SWOMCD SPC MCD 102308 NEZ000-110045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1177 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0608 PM CDT THU JUN 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL/CNTRL NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 102308Z - 110045Z NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO E OF WW 425. AS OF 22Z...MESOANALYSIS SHOWED 996MB SURFACE LOW W OF IML WITH ATTENDANT WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD ALONG THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY /ROUGHLY FROM N OF LBF TO NEAR BBW TO N OF GRI/. TRAILING DRYLINE THEN STRETCHED SWD/SEWD INTO NWRN KS /W OF HLC/. ENVIRONMENT NE OF SURFACE LOW AND N OF WARM FRONT REMAINS QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. HERE...MLCAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG ARE JUXTAPOSITIONED WITH 35-45KT 0-6KM SHEAR / 100-150 M2/S2 0-1KM SRH AND FAVORABLY LOW LFC/LCL HEIGHTS. LONG-LIVED SUPERCELL OVER ERN ARTHUR/WRN MCPHERSON COUNTIES CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD/NEWD AT 30KTS AND SHOULD APPROACH ERN PORTIONS OF WW 425 BY 0000-0030Z. ADDITIONAL STORMS FORMING OVER CNTRL CHERRY COUNTY WILL POSE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AS THEY CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY. A NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED E OF WW 425 WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. ..MEAD.. 06/10/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF... 42950082 42949858 41079803 41070028 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 11 04:31:28 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 10 Jun 2004 23:31:28 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406110431.i5B4V8208927@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 110119 SWOMCD SPC MCD 110119 MNZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-110245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1181 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0819 PM CDT THU JUN 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN SD INTO N-CNTRL/NERN NEB CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 428...430... VALID 110119Z - 110245Z WW/S 427 AND 430 WILL BE REPLACED WITH A NEW WW WITHIN THE HOUR. AS OF 0100Z...REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC INDICATED EVOLVING QUASI-LINEAR MCS FROM NEAR MBG SWD TO E OF VTN TO NW OF BBW. WHILE LBF REFLECTIVITY LOOP SHOWS THE PRESENCE OF EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS SURGED E OF PARENT STORMS. AS STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT NEWD OUT OF NERN CO...EXPECT MCS TO BEGIN TO ACCELERATE EWD ACROSS ERN SD AND CNTRL/ERN NEB. SLY LLJ CURRENTLY STRENGTHENING FROM N-CNTRL OK NWD ACROSS CNTRL PORTIONS OF KS/NEB WILL MAINTAIN FEED OF MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR INTO SYSTEM. THIS COUPLED WITH 45-55KT SWLY MID-LEVEL JET PROPAGATING NEWD ACROSS CNTRL/ERN KS/NEB WILL PROMOTE AN ORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS/BOWS. THE POTENTIAL FOR PRIMARILY DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS. ..MEAD.. 06/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR... 41070039 45030021 44969643 41139690  From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 11 04:44:30 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 10 Jun 2004 23:44:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406110444.i5B4i6214146@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 110443 SWOMCD SPC MCD 110443 MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-110615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1182 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1143 PM CDT THU JUN 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL/SERN SD SWD INTO NERN/E-CNTRL NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 431... VALID 110443Z - 110615Z GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL REMAINS ACROSS ERN/SRN PORTIONS OF WW AREA. AS OF 0425Z...REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC INDICATED NEARLY SOLID CONVECTIVE LINE FROM SPINK COUNTY SD SWD INTO KNOX COUNTY NEB MOVING EWD AT 25-35KTS. WHILE OVERALL SYSTEM MOVEMENT IS NOT PARTICULARLY FAST...LOCAL RADARS INDICATE SMALLER-SCALE EMBEDDED BOWS WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. FARTHER S...MORE DISCRETE SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WERE OBSERVED OVER GREELEY/HOWARD AND DAWSON COUNTIES IN CNTRL/S-CNTRL NEB. LATEST MESOANALYSIS AND RUC PLAN VIEW FIELDS INDICATE THAT THE GREATEST INSTABILITY CURRENTLY EXISTS S OF WARM FRONT WHICH EXTENDED FROM INTERSECTION OF CONVECTIVE LINE N OF YKN ESEWD INTO CNTRL IA. HERE...BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS OF 65-70F ARE STILL CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. ADDITIONALLY...PROFILER/VWP NETWORKS INDICATE AXIS OF STRONGEST MID-LEVEL FLOW OF 40-50KTS FROM WRN KS INTO CNTRL NEB. THUS...IT APPEARS THAT GREATEST THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST FROM NERN INTO E-CNTRL NEB OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WHERE THE BEST COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY CO-EXIST. ..MEAD.. 06/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR... 45010026 44999617 41119638 41140030 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 11 05:09:21 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 11 Jun 2004 00:09:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406110508.i5B58v225091@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 110508 SWOMCD SPC MCD 110507 OHZ000-INZ000-MIZ000-ILZ000-110630- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1183 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1207 AM CDT FRI JUN 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CNTRL IN AND SW LOWER MI CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 432... VALID 110507Z - 110630Z THREAT FOR AN ISOLD TORNADO AND/OR WIND DAMAGE REMAINS ACROSS WW 432 /NAMELY ACROSS NRN AND CNTRL IN PORTIONS/ FOR NEXT FEW HOURS...CONTINUE WW. IND 88D VAD WIND PROFILE IN CONJUNCTION WITH SFC DATA/RUC DIAGNOSTICS SUGGESTS LARGE/LOOPED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS REMAIN ACROSS NRN/CNTRL IN...WITH 0-1 KM SRH ON THE ORDER OF 200 M2/S2. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES REMAIN CHARACTERIZED BY SUBTROPICAL AIRMASS WITH VERY HIGH PW VALUES AND SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S. GIVEN FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND SUFFICIENT CONCENTRATION OF LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY -- 0-3 KM CAPE OF 75-125 J/KG -- CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF AN ISOLD TORNADO AND/OR WIND DAMAGE EVENT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. NEVERTHELESS NOCTURNAL CYCLE AND TENDENCY FOR TSTMS TO CLUSTER SUGGESTS PROGRESSIVELY DIMINISHING THREAT INTO THE OVERNIGHT. ..GUYER.. 06/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX... 42058678 42048552 39878444 39888728 40488759 41138694 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 11 15:13:03 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 11 Jun 2004 10:13:03 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406111512.i5BFCh231012@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 111510 SWOMCD SPC MCD 111510 WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-111645- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1187 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1010 AM CDT FRI JUN 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IA...SRN MN...AND FAR SWRN WI CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE VALID 111510Z - 111645Z AN UPGRADE TO A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS PLANNED ON THE 1630Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK ACROSS NRN IA...SRN MN...AND SWRN WI. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS N-CENTRAL IA NWD INTO SRN MN DURING MID-LATE AFTERNOON...WITH SUFFICIENT CAPE/SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD INTO SWRN WI BY LATE EVENING. POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES...PARTICULARLY IN VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO EXTEND NW-SE ACROSS S-CENTRAL MN LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WARRANTS THE UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK. ADDITIONAL METEOROLOGICAL DETAILS ARE FORTHCOMING IN THE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. ..BANACOS.. 06/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD... 43339011 42529049 42559390 43309506 44739524 45429451 45189293 44549130 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 11 15:54:09 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 11 Jun 2004 10:54:09 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406111553.i5BFrj223040@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 111553 SWOMCD SPC MCD 111552 VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-111745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1188 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1052 AM CDT FRI JUN 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN IND/SRN OH/NRN KY/WV AND WRN VA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 111552Z - 111745Z A WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL EXIST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS A LINE OF STORMS MOVES ESEWD ACROSS ERN IND...SRN OH AND WV. A WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THIS REGION. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING SEWD INTO SRN OH WHERE A LINE CONVECTION IS ONGOING JUST SOUTH OF THE FRONT. SFC TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THE FRONT HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER 80S F AND MUCAPE VALUES HAVE INCREASED INTO THE 2000 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE. INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON HELPING UPDRAFTS TO INTENSIFY. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 700 MB JET OF 40 KT CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS SCNTRL IND PUNCHING EWD INTO SRN OH. THIS FEATURE IS CREATING MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 35 KT FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS. UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL PROMOTE AN INCREASING WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL AS THE LINE ORGANIZES AND MOVES ACROSS SRN OH INTO NRN WV THIS AFTERNOON. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR TO THE SOUTH ACROSS NRN KY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN A WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL ACROSS SRN WV AND WRN VA AS WELL. ..BROYLES.. 06/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND... 38417876 37957881 37347908 36847964 37228180 37898388 38598566 39098643 39828644 40068603 39918498 39648304 39288064 38917904 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 11 16:28:22 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 11 Jun 2004 11:28:22 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406111627.i5BGRx213551@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 111627 SWOMCD SPC MCD 111626 VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-111830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1188 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1126 AM CDT FRI JUN 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN IND/SRN OH/NRN KY/WV AND WRN VA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 111626Z - 111830Z A WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL EXIST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS A LINE OF STORMS MOVES ESEWD ACROSS ERN IND...SRN OH AND WV. A WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THIS REGION. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING SEWD INTO SRN OH WHERE A LINE CONVECTION IS ONGOING JUST SOUTH OF THE FRONT. SFC TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THE FRONT HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER 80S F AND MUCAPE VALUES HAVE INCREASED INTO THE 2000 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE. INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON HELPING UPDRAFTS TO INTENSIFY. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 700 MB JET OF 40 KT CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS SCNTRL IND PUNCHING EWD INTO SRN OH. THIS FEATURE IS CREATING MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 35 KT FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS. UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL PROMOTE AN INCREASING WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL AS THE LINE ORGANIZES AND MOVES ACROSS SRN OH INTO NRN WV THIS AFTERNOON. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR TO THE SOUTH ACROSS NRN KY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN A WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL ACROSS SRN WV AND WRN VA AS WELL. ..BROYLES.. 06/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND... 38417876 37957881 37347908 36847964 37228180 37898388 38598566 39098643 39828644 40068603 39918498 39648304 39288064 38917904 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 11 17:10:44 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 11 Jun 2004 12:10:44 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406111710.i5BHAL208263@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 111709 SWOMCD SPC MCD 111709 SDZ000-NDZ000-111915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1189 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1209 PM CDT FRI JUN 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL ND AND N-CENTRAL SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 111709Z - 111915Z CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL ND SWD INTO NRN SD DURING 19-21Z PERIOD. LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED DURING THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS. HEIGHT FALLS SUGGEST MID-LEVEL COLD POOL /-17C AT 500MB/ ACROSS SWRN SD AT 12Z WILL SHIFT NEWD INTO CENTRAL ND DURING THE MAX SURFACE HEATING PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MID 70S COUPLED WITH COOLING ALOFT WILL MINIMIZE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...AND ALLOW FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG EWD MOVING SURFACE COLD FRONT...LIKELY DURING MID-AFTERNOON HOURS. AT 16Z...THE FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE PARENT CYCLONE NEAR ISN...SWD TO 30E DIK TO 20E PHP. ANTICIPATE MLCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG BY 20Z WITH DEVELOPING ARCING LINE OF CONVECTION...AND PERHAPS LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS FROM CENTRAL ND SWD INTO NRN SD IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT. WBZ HEIGHTS OF 7-8 KFT SUGGEST LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL...PARTICULARLY WITH ANY ROTATING CELLS. SOME LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND IS POSSIBLE WITH STRONG DOWNDRAFTS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO MAY OCCUR...HOWEVER...UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW EVIDENT ON BIS VAD AND MODERATE SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS SHOULD MINIMIZE THREAT. ..BANACOS.. 06/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR... 46110156 47090213 47890275 48440254 48920195 48930025 48919877 45259777 44689864 44820119 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 11 17:57:59 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 11 Jun 2004 12:57:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406111757.i5BHva204147@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 111756 SWOMCD SPC MCD 111755 IAZ000-MNZ000-112030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1190 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1255 PM CDT FRI JUN 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MN AND NRN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 111755Z - 112030Z SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ALONG WARM FRONT IN NRN IA/SRN MN DURING NEXT 1-2 HOURS. TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED SOON. 17Z SURFACE MESOANALYSIS INDICATES A 1000MB SUB-SYNOPTIC LOW CENTERED 25 SE SUX...WITH A WARM FRONT BULGING NWD ACROSS NWRN IA AND THEN ESEWD INTO E-CENTRAL IA. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE WARM FRONT IS MOVING RAPIDLY NWD ACROSS NWRN IA AND WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO SWRN MN DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. WARM SECTOR SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S ARE CONTRIBUTING TO VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS WRN IA WITH 100MB MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500-3000 J/KG. DESTABILIZATION SHOULD RAPIDLY ADVANCE NWD INTO SWRN/SRN MN WITH PROGRESSION OF THE WARM FRONT. CAPPING INVERSION WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN ACROSS NWRN IA/SWRN MN DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS AS COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST AND NOSE OF ELEVATED MIXED-LAYER SHIFTS EWD. RAPID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS...IS ANTICIPATED ALONG THE MN/IA BORDER THROUGH 21Z. BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND LOW LCL HEIGHTS ALONG AND NORTH OF WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY ENHANCED THREAT OF TORNADOES WITH SUPERCELLS ACROSS SRN MN AND FAR NRN IA BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED. ..BANACOS.. 06/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD... 43289605 44839604 45109541 44849374 44609267 43489195 42549214 42239376 42269544 42499586 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 11 20:05:37 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 11 Jun 2004 15:05:37 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406112005.i5BK5E216371@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 112003 SWOMCD SPC MCD 112003 IAZ000-MNZ000-112130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1191 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0303 PM CDT FRI JUN 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IA AND SRN MN CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 436... VALID 112003Z - 112130Z CONTINUE TORNADO WATCH 436 IN NRN IA/SRN MN. AT 1940Z...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE WRN PORTION OF THE WW 436 AREA...FROM 20 W RWF TO 25 SW SPW. DEVELOPMENT IS GENERALLY NEAR THE SUB-SYNOPTIC LOW OVER NWRN IA...AND N-S ORIENTED SURFACE TROUGH/OCCLUSION FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVERGENCE ACROSS SWRN MN INTO WRN IA. MOST SIGNIFICANT STORM IS THE SUPERCELL NEAR CLAY AND PALO ALTO COUNTY BORDER IN NWRN IA...ANCHORED ALONG SURFACE WARM FRONT WHICH EXTENDS EWD ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF IA. ADDITIONAL SUPERCELLS WERE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT JUST TO THE WEST OF THIS INITIAL STORM. AIR MASS IS EXTREMELY UNSTABLE ALONG THE FRONT...WITH 100MB MLCAPE AROUND 3000 J/KG. LOCALLY BACKED SURFACE WINDS ARE CONTRIBUTING TO 0-1KM SRH OF 100-150 M2/S2 ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. COMBINED WITH LOW LCL HEIGHTS...A FOCUSED THREAT OF TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE WARM FRONT IN NWRN/N-CENTRAL IA DURING AT LEAST THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS...WITH BOUNDARY GRADUALLY LIFTING TOWARD THE MN/IA BORDER. AS FRONT LIFTS NWD AND CIN DIMINISHES IN SRN MN...TORNADO THREAT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE NRN PORTION OF THE WW AREA. ..BANACOS.. 06/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD... 42289181 42279491 44539597 44509267 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 11 20:20:37 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 11 Jun 2004 15:20:37 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406112020.i5BKKE224978@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 112017 SWOMCD SPC MCD 112016 VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-KYZ000-112145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1192 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0316 PM CDT FRI JUN 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WV AND VA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 434... VALID 112016Z - 112145Z THE CONVECTIVE LINE MOVING INTO WV WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A WIND DAMAGE THREAT. ALSO...AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT MAY EXIST WITH ROTATING CELLS AHEAD OF THE LINE. WW 434 WILL BE REPLACED WITH ANOTHER WW SHORTLY EXTENDING EAST ACROSS VA. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS CURRENTLY PRESENT ACROSS KY...WV AND VA SOUTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT. THE ONGOING CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE SUSTAINED BY THE INSTABILITY AS IT MOVES ESEWD. THE ACTIVITY IS IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A 50 KT MID-LEVEL JET MOVING ACROSS NRN VA. THIS IS ENHANCING SHEAR AND LIFT WHICH IN TURN SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STRONG CONVECTION THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WIND DAMAGE SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT CONSIDERING THE WIND PROFILES ARE UNIDIRECTIONAL. HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT MAY ALSO EXIST WITH CELLS THAT ROTATE IN THE STRONGER INSTABILITY SOUTH OF THE FRONT. ..BROYLES.. 06/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...RLX...JKL... 37498218 37828242 38238234 38538176 38578065 38347857 38167724 37667592 36827603 36557678 36807911 37228153  From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 11 20:27:04 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 11 Jun 2004 15:27:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406112026.i5BKQf228527@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 112021 SWOMCD SPC MCD 112021 NDZ000-SDZ000-112215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1193 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0321 PM CDT FRI JUN 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 435... VALID 112021Z - 112215Z CONTINUE WW. COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN ASSOCIATION WITH VORT MAX AND MID-LEVEL COLD POOL EVIDENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR BIS. MODERATE INSTABILITY...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND LOW WBZ HEIGHTS OF 7-8 KFT SUGGEST THAT THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL CONTINUES ACROSS THE WW AREA WITH STRONGER REFLECTIVITY/VIL CORES. ACTIVITY ACROSS SRN/SWRN ND WILL LIFT GENERALLY NNEWD INTO N-CENTRAL ND THROUGH EARLY EVENING. STORM INTENSITY SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH PEAK BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING. ..BANACOS.. 06/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR... 45909811 45930232 48980300 48999863 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 11 21:57:30 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 11 Jun 2004 16:57:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406112157.i5BLvH215256@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 112156 SWOMCD SPC MCD 112155 IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-112330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1194 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0455 PM CDT FRI JUN 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CNTRL IA SWWD INTO NWRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 112155Z - 112330Z TSTM POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE INCREASING AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. AS OF 2145Z...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED DEEPENING CUMULUS FIELD ALONG PRESSURE TROUGH THAT EXTENDED FROM A SURFACE LOW SE OF SPW SWD TO ROUGHLY 35E OF OMA TO NEAR FNB. TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S AND RATHER STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7-8 C/KM ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG E OF TROUGH WITH LITTLE OR NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. THOUGH STRONGEST LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH VORTICITY MAX OVER ERN SD/N-CNTRL AND NERN NEB IS FORECAST TO LIFT N OF THE AREA...LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE ALONG TROUGH MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE DEEP CONVECTION. IF STORMS CAN BECOME ESTABLISHED...CURRENT SLATER IA PROFILER INDICATES SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. THOUGH LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE FAVORABLY LOW LFC/LCL HEIGHTS. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AND A WW MAY BE REQUIRED. ..MEAD.. 06/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP... 42249499 42289249 39479385 39599615 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 11 22:17:43 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 11 Jun 2004 17:17:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406112217.i5BMHK226984@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 112216 SWOMCD SPC MCD 112216 IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-112345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1195 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0516 PM CDT FRI JUN 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/NWRN TX INTO FAR SWRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 112216Z - 112345Z TSTM POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA. IF STORMS CAN BECOME ESTABLISHED...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. AS 2205Z....VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED ENHANCED FIELD OF TCU FROM WILBARGER/BAYLOR COUNTIES SWWD INTO KENT/FISHER/SCURRY COUNTIES OF WRN TX. THIS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING E OF WEAK DRYLINE/PRESSURE TROUGH WHICH EXTENDED FROM W OF FSI SWWD TO E OF MAF AS OF 22Z. AIRMASS E OF THIS FEATURE HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES OF 2500-3000 J/KG AND LITTLE OR NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. THOUGH LARGE-SCALE FORCING REMAINS WEAK ACROSS THE REGION...CONTINUED STRONG HEATING COUPLED WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG DRYLINE/PRESSURE TROUGH MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE ISOLATED STORMS WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. CURRENT JAYTON TX PROFILER INDICATES MODEST MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS BOUNDARY WITH 30-35KTS IN THE 5-7KM LAYER. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...ORGANIZED MULTICELLS OR SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS. ..MEAD.. 06/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF... 42249499 42289249 39479385 39599615 32110219 34729991 34809777 32140000 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 11 22:19:57 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 11 Jun 2004 17:19:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406112219.i5BMJc228161@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 112219 SWOMCD SPC MCD 112218 OKZ000-TXZ000-112345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1195 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0518 PM CDT FRI JUN 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/NWRN TX INTO FAR SWRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 112218Z - 112345Z TSTM POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA. IF STORMS CAN BECOME ESTABLISHED...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. AS 2205Z....VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED ENHANCED FIELD OF TCU FROM WILBARGER/BAYLOR COUNTIES SWWD INTO KENT/FISHER/SCURRY COUNTIES OF WRN TX. THIS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING E OF WEAK DRYLINE/PRESSURE TROUGH WHICH EXTENDED FROM W OF FSI SWWD TO E OF MAF AS OF 22Z. AIRMASS E OF THIS FEATURE HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES OF 2500-3000 J/KG AND LITTLE OR NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. THOUGH LARGE-SCALE FORCING REMAINS WEAK ACROSS THE REGION...CONTINUED STRONG HEATING COUPLED WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG DRYLINE/PRESSURE TROUGH MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE ISOLATED STORMS WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. CURRENT JAYTON TX PROFILER INDICATES MODEST MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS BOUNDARY WITH 30-35KTS IN THE 5-7KM LAYER. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...ORGANIZED MULTICELLS OR SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS. ..MEAD.. 06/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF... 32110219 34729991 34809777 32140000 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 11 22:43:57 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 11 Jun 2004 17:43:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406112243.i5BMhZ208185@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 112242 SWOMCD SPC MCD 112242 KSZ000-OKZ000-120015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1196 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0542 PM CDT FRI JUN 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL/SERN KS INTO N-CNTRL OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 112242Z - 120015Z TSTM POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED. AS OF 2230Z...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED DEEPENING LINE OF CUMULUS FROM COWLEY/SUMNER COUNTIES IN S-CNTRL KS SWWD INTO BLAINE AND KINGFISHER COUNTIES IN N-CNTRL/CNTRL OK. THIS DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY OCCURRING WITHIN ZONE OF SUSTAINED CONVERGENCE ALONG DIFFUSE DRYLINE/PRESSURE TROUGH WHICH EXTENDED FROM NEAR ICT SWWD TO E OF CSM AS OF 22Z. STRONG DIABATIC HEATING COUPLED WITH AXIS OF 70-75F DEWPOINTS ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPES OF 2500-3500 J/KG EARLY THIS EVENING WITH LITTLE OR NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP...LOCAL PROFILERS AND VWPS INDICATE SUFFICIENTLY STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AND A WW MAY BE REQUIRED. ..MEAD.. 06/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN... 35589859 37879689 37919533 35599693 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 11 22:58:55 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 11 Jun 2004 17:58:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406112258.i5BMwc215729@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 112257 SWOMCD SPC MCD 112256 INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-120030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1197 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0556 PM CDT FRI JUN 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SRN WI/NRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 112256Z - 120030Z POTENTIAL FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS AREA AND A WW MAY BE REQUIRED. AS OF 2247Z...REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC INDICATED TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER STEPHENSON AND JO DAVIESS COUNTIES IN FAR NWRN IL AS WELL AS LAFAYETTE COUNTY IN FAR SWRN WI. LATEST MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT THESE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING INVOF WARM FRONT WHICH EXTENDED FROM N OF DBQ TO NEAR RFD TO SW OF CGX. LOCAL DEWPOINTS OF 70-75F AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG AND JUST TO THE N OF WARM FRONT WITH MLCAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG. MOREOVER...BACKED NEAR SURFACE WINDS COUPLED WITH 30-35KT SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW IS RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. GREATEST TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST ALONG AND JUST N OF RETREATING WARM FRONT WHERE 0-1KM SRH VALUES OF 100-200 M2/S2 ARE CO-LOCATED WITH FAVORABLY LOW LCL HEIGHTS OF 600-800M. A WW MAY BE REQUIRED SHORTLY. ..MEAD.. 06/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX... 43109087 41579041 40548736 42228783 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 11 23:04:57 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 11 Jun 2004 18:04:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406112304.i5BN4Z218478@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 112303 SWOMCD SPC MCD 112302 VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-120100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1198 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0602 PM CDT FRI JUN 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KY...SRN/SWRN VA...NRN NC...FAR NERN TN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 437... VALID 112302Z - 120100Z CONTINUE WW. AT 2250Z...LEADING ARC OF STRONG TO EMBEDDED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED FROM RIC WSWWD INTO FAR SWRN VA AND FAR ERN KY. STRONG COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STORMS AND 30KT NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN SEWD MOTION OF LINE ACROSS FAR SRN VA INTO FAR NRN NC DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVING INLAND ACROSS FAR ERN/SERN VA WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE ERN EXTENT OF THE SEVERE THREAT OWING TO MORE STABLE MARINE AIR. WEST OF THIS BOUNDARY...MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL BE MAINTAINED DURING NEXT 1-3 HOURS PRIOR TO BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING AND STABILIZATION. AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY EXTEND INTO FAR NRN NC LATER THIS EVENING...HOWEVER...OVERALL INTENSITY OF CONVECTIVE SYSTEM SHOULD DECREASE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND ADDITIONAL WW MAY NOT BE NEEDED. REGION SOUTH OF ONGOING ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. IN THE MEANTIME...THREAT OF LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WITH STRONGER CORES IS EXPECTED ACROSS SRN VA WWD INTO FAR ERN KY...WITH LINE MOTION GENERALLY 315/30 KT. ..BANACOS.. 06/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL... 35777729 35537969 35758169 36878335 37708316 37898156 37977922 37917769 37007694 36207687 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 11 23:26:57 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 11 Jun 2004 18:26:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406112326.i5BNQc229881@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 112326 SWOMCD SPC MCD 112325 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-120100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1199 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0625 PM CDT FRI JUN 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND INTO NWRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 112325Z - 120100Z ONGOING TSTMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. A NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED. AS OF 2310Z...LEADING EDGE OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS STRETCHED FROM LAMOURE/STUTSMAN COUNTIES NWWD INTO BENSON AND PIERCE COUNTIES. FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF VORTICITY MAX OVER CNTRL ND COUPLED WITH STEEP...LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE PRIMARILY DRIVING ONGOING STORMS. POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AHEAD OF VORTICITY MAX ACROSS FAR ERN ND...AND POSSIBLY INTO NWRN MN THROUGH 02 OR 03Z. A NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED. ..MEAD.. 06/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS... 45959869 48989892 49009643 45939626 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 12 00:59:29 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 11 Jun 2004 19:59:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406120059.i5C0x7209573@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 120058 SWOMCD SPC MCD 120057 WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-120230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1200 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0757 PM CDT FRI JUN 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN MN/NRN IA INTO WRN WI CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 438... VALID 120057Z - 120230Z GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES REMAINS ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF WW 438. AS OF 0038Z...REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC INDICATED LEADING EDGE OF EVOLVING MCS FROM BARRON/POLK COUNTIES IN W-CNTRL WI SWD THROUGH FILLMORE COUNTY MN AND INTO WEBSTER COUNTY IA. THE ANCHOR STORM OVER WEBSTER COUNTY IS EXHIBITING STRONG MID-LEVEL ROTATION AS IS A STORM OVER OLMSTED COUNTY IN FAR SERN MN...WHERE CONVECTIVE LINE IS INTERSECTING WARM FRONT. AIRMASS AHEAD OF PRESSURE TROUGH OVER WRN IA AND S OF WARM FRONT /EXTENDING FROM S OF RST TO E OF DBQ/ REMAINS MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE THIS EVENING WITH MLCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG. WHILE LFC/LCL HEIGHTS REMAIN FAVORABLY LOW ACROSS MUCH OF WARM SECTOR AIRMASS...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS FIELDS INDICATE THE STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR INVOF WARM FRONT OVER NERN IA. THUS...ISOLATED TORNADOES REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH ONGOING SUPERCELL OVER WEBSTER COUNTY...AS WELL AS ANY STORMS THAT CAN REALIZE ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL BUOYANCY/SHEAR ALONG/N OF WARM FRONT. FARTHER N...00Z MPX SOUNDING INDICATED STABLE NEAR GROUND LAYER WITH WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS FOR ELEVATED PARCELS. EXPECT STRONGEST STORMS TO POSE MAINLY A LARGE HAIL THREAT AS THEY PROGRESS EWD ACROSS W-CNTRL INTO CNTRL WI. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AND A NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED E OF WW 438 ..MEAD.. 06/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DVN...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX...FGF...FSD...ABR... 45799649 45789001 43188947 43189094 42269060 42249490 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 12 01:00:07 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 11 Jun 2004 20:00:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406120059.i5C0xi210286@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 120059 SWOMCD SPC MCD 120058 KSZ000-MOZ000-120300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1201 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0758 PM CDT FRI JUN 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 120058Z - 120300Z ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ACROSS ERN SECTIONS OF KS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. REGION WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. AT 0045Z...ISOLATED TOWERING CU WERE NOTED 15-20N EMP...IN VICINITY OF LARGE-SCALE SURFACE TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL IA SSWWD ACROSS ERN KS. AIR MASS ACROSS FAR ERN KS...EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE...IS EXTREMELY MOIST WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S WITHIN TOP-MCI CORRIDOR. THE 00Z TOP SOUNDING INDICATED THAT THE AREA IS UNCAPPED...WITH VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WHILE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS NOT FORECAST TO BE STRONG...SURFACE CONVERGENCE COMBINED WITH SLIGHT MID-LEVEL COOLING PROGGED ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUSTAIN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS EXISTS ACROSS ERN KS. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. ..BANACOS.. 06/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT... 38749670 39489620 39919539 39809507 39079470 38709467 38209471 37849495 37759604 37899659 38129680 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 12 01:20:04 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 11 Jun 2004 20:20:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406120119.i5C1Jl219552@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 120118 SWOMCD SPC MCD 120117 OKZ000-TXZ000-120245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1202 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0817 PM CDT FRI JUN 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SWRN OK INTO NWRN/WRN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 439... VALID 120117Z - 120245Z GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY LARGE HAIL AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL EXIST ACROSS CNTRL AND SRN PORTIONS OF WW AREA FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. AS OF 0105Z...ABILENE/DYESS AFB VOLUMETRIC RADAR DATA INDICATED CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES OVER STONEWALL/HASKELL AND MITCHELL COUNTIES IN TX. PROPAGATION HAS LARGELY GOVERNED STORM MOTIONS ACROSS THIS AREA...RESULTING IN LITTLE OVERALL MOVEMENT OF COMPLEX. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF EMBEDDED MESOCYCLONES...LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN A DISTINCT THREAT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...QUASI-STATIONARY CHARACTER OF COMPLEX INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. STORMS SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS BOUNDARY-LAYER CONTINUES TO COOL AND STABILIZE. ..MEAD.. 06/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF... 34819975 34799781 31850015 31850205  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 12 01:58:22 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 11 Jun 2004 20:58:22 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406120158.i5C1w0204093@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 120157 SWOMCD SPC MCD 120156 NCZ000-VAZ000-120330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1203 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0856 PM CDT FRI JUN 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 442... VALID 120156Z - 120330Z LINE OF STRONG-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SEWD AROUND 40 KTS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SEVERE THREAT MAY PERSIST FOR A ROW OR TWO COUNTIES SOUTH OF WW 442...BUT LIMITED DURATION OF THE THREAT DUE TO CONTINUED LOSS OF HEATING SHOULD PRECLUDE ANOTHER WW IN THIS AREA. LATEST VWP DATA FROM BLACKSBURG VA INDICATES A 40 KT NWLY LOW LEVEL JET WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO AID IN ENHANCED CONVERGENCE MAINTAINING CONVECTIVE LINE AND INDIVIDUAL BOWING SEGMENTS AS THEY MOVE SEWD AROUND 40 KTS INTO PARTS OF ERN NC. SLOWLY INCREASING CINH WILL ALLOW FOR A GENERAL DECREASE IN DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH THIS LINE AS IT MOVES SOUTH OF WW 442 IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. ADDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT WILL PERSIST AHEAD OF THIS LINE AS AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL MOVES SEWD ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER NERN NC. THIS CELL WILL HAVE SOME ATTENDANT THREAT FOR A TORNADO GIVEN ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. BUT AS WITH THE CONVECTIVE LINE...THE TORNADO/SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS STORM SHOULD DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE ALBEMARLE SOUND BY 03Z WHERE THERE WERE COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES. ..CROSBIE.. 06/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH... 35637953 35847937 35907843 36117819 36567792 36507594 35117623 34917808 35057954 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 12 02:30:45 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 11 Jun 2004 21:30:45 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406120230.i5C2UN219527@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 120229 SWOMCD SPC MCD 120229 MNZ000-NDZ000-120400- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1204 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0929 PM CDT FRI JUN 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND INTO NWRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 441... VALID 120229Z - 120400Z ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH MOST INTENSE STORMS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. LATEST RADAR MOSAIC LOOP SUGGESTS THAT BAND OF TSTMS FROM CAVALIER/PEMBINA COUNTIES SEWD INTO CLAY COUNTY MN HAVE WEAKENING OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR AS THEY MOVE/DEVELOP NEWD AT 35-40KTS. THOUGH FARGO/GRAND FORKS VWP CONTINUES TO INDICATE FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES FOR ORGANIZED TSTMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT STABILIZATION OF BOUNDARY LAYER HAS GREATLY REDUCED AIRMASS INSTABILITY. POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...HOWEVER A NEW WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM DOWNSTREAM OVER N-CNTRL MN. ..MEAD.. 06/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS... 48960059 48989726 45949522 45959838 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 12 03:07:21 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 11 Jun 2004 22:07:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406120306.i5C36x202110@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 120304 SWOMCD SPC MCD 120304 ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-120400- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1205 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1004 PM CDT FRI JUN 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN WI/NRN IL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 440... VALID 120304Z - 120400Z POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES STILL EXISTS ALONG WARM FRONT. CONTINUE WW. CHICAGO RADAR IMAGERY HAS INDICATED A GRADUAL INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE PAST HOUR OVER PORTIONS OVER NRN IL...LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRENGTHENING WAA REGIME EVIDENT IN REGIONAL VWPS. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING NEAR SURFACE WARM FRONT WHICH EXTENDED FROM NEAR DBQ TO S OF RFD TO N OF LAF AS OF 02Z. RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS S OF WARM FRONT STILL INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH MLCAPES OF 2000-2500 J/KG. ADDITIONALLY...KINEMATIC FIELDS REMAIN QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH 35-45KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND 100-250 M2/S2 0-1KM SRH...RESPECTIVELY. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AND A REPLACEMENT WW MAY BE NECESSARY AT 04Z. ..MEAD.. 06/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX... 43169088 43178874 41178789 41169005 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 12 03:52:31 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 11 Jun 2004 22:52:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406120352.i5C3q8221708@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 120351 SWOMCD SPC MCD 120350 TXZ000-120515- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1206 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1050 PM CDT FRI JUN 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/NWRN TX CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 439... VALID 120350Z - 120515Z ISOLATED SUPERCELL OVER NOLAN/COKE COUNTY BORDER SHOULD DIMINISH IN INTENSITY BY AROUND 05Z. ADDITIONAL STORMS IN THE ABI VICINITY WILL CONTINUE TO POSE SOME THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER A NEW WW WILL NOT BE ISSUED. AN ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WILL PERSIST...WITH HOURLY RAINFALL RATES FROM 1-2 INCHES NEAR AND JUST NORTH OF 1-20 FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. RECENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A NEARLY STATIONARY SUPERCELL OVER THE JONES/MITCHELL/COKE COUNTY BORDER. INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET SAMPLED BY REGIONAL VWP/S WILL LIKELY AID IN MAINTAINING CONVERGENCE INTO THIS STORM AN OFFSETTING INCREASING CINH AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE CLUSTER TO THE NORTH OF ABI SHOULD ALSO MAINTAIN IT/S PRESENT STRENGTH FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...GIVEN THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET AND MODEST COLD POOL THAT HAS DEVELOPED BEHIND THE CONVECTION. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT ATOP OF THE COLD POOL OVER NWRN TX WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH AN ATTENDANT ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL THREAT. ADDITIONALLY...SLOW STORM MOTIONS WITH THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BECOMING ORIENTED MORE PARALLEL TO THE MEAN SHEAR VECTOR ALONG WITH THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD ALLOW FOR A HEAVY RAIN THREAT ALONG/JUST NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR THROUGH 06Z. ..CROSBIE.. 06/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF... 31860165 32770101 33849982 33839856 33149860 31969916 31550030 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 12 03:55:26 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 11 Jun 2004 22:55:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406120355.i5C3t4223062@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 120354 SWOMCD SPC MCD 120354 TXZ000-120530- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1207 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1054 PM CDT FRI JUN 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/NWRN TX CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 439... VALID 120354Z - 120530Z ISOLATED SUPERCELL OVER NOLAN/COKE COUNTY BORDER SHOULD DIMINISH IN INTENSITY BY AROUND 05Z. ADDITIONAL STORMS IN THE ABI VICINITY WILL CONTINUE TO POSE SOME THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER A NEW WW WILL NOT BE ISSUED. AN ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WILL PERSIST...WITH HOURLY RAINFALL RATES FROM 1-2 INCHES NEAR AND JUST NORTH OF 1-20 FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. RECENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A NEARLY STATIONARY SUPERCELL OVER THE JONES/MITCHELL/COKE COUNTY BORDER. INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET SAMPLED BY REGIONAL VWP/S WILL LIKELY AID IN MAINTAINING CONVERGENCE INTO THIS STORM AN OFFSETTING INCREASING CINH AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE CLUSTER TO THE NORTH OF ABI SHOULD ALSO MAINTAIN IT/S PRESENT STRENGTH FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...GIVEN THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET AND MODEST COLD POOL THAT HAS DEVELOPED BEHIND THE CONVECTION. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT ATOP OF THE COLD POOL OVER NWRN TX WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH AN ATTENDANT ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL THREAT. ADDITIONALLY...SLOW STORM MOTIONS WITH THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BECOMING ORIENTED MORE PARALLEL TO THE MEAN SHEAR VECTOR ALONG WITH THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD ALLOW FOR A HEAVY RAIN THREAT ALONG/JUST NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR THROUGH 06Z. ..CROSBIE.. 06/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF... 31860165 32770101 33849982 33839856 33149860 31969916 31550030 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 12 04:36:24 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 11 Jun 2004 23:36:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406120436.i5C4a8210079@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 120435 SWOMCD SPC MCD 120434 MOZ000-KSZ000-120630- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1208 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1134 PM CDT FRI JUN 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN MO CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 120434Z - 120630Z POTENTIAL FOR HOURLY RAIN RATES APPROACHING 2-3 INCHES/HOUR WILL EXIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF NWRN MO FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. LARGE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER NWRN MO/FAR NERN KS HAS BECOME ORIENTED MORE LATITUDINALLY OVER THE PAST HOUR WITH LEADING EDGE OF COMPLEX FROM 30SE P35 TO 20SE STJ TO JUST E OF TOP. AT THE SAME TIME...REGIONAL PLAN VIEW VWP/PROFILER NETWORKS INDICATE THAT SWLY LLJ HAS INTENSIFIED TO 30-35KTS FROM CNTRL/ERN OK NEWD ACROSS ERN KS INTO NWRN MO. RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM INFLOW REGION OF SYSTEM INDICATE PRESENCE OF MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH MLCAPES OF 2500-3500 J/KG. THOUGH CONVECTIVE INHIBITION REMAINS STRONG WITHIN THIS INFLOW REGION...STRONG ASCENT ALONG LLJ AXIS OVER LEADING EDGE OF COLD POOL IS LIKELY ALLOWING COMPLEX TO UTILIZE A GOOD SHARE OF THIS INSTABILITY. OVERALL SYSTEM MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE EWD OR SEWD...HOWEVER WIND PROFILES SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR UPSTREAM/BACKBUILDING DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING AND/OR SLOW MOVING STORMS...LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS LIKELY ALONG SYSTEM TRACK WITH HOURLY RAIN RATES APPROACHING 2-3 INCHES/HOUR. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAIN...SOME OF THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY. ..MEAD.. 06/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP... 39349536 39849487 40189392 40029310 39469306 39129380 38939479 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 12 15:31:34 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 12 Jun 2004 10:31:34 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406121531.i5CFVH200748@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 121530 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121530 MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-IAZ000-121730- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1212 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1030 AM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SE NEB/ERN KS/SRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 121530Z - 121730Z ELEVATED CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS ERN KS...SE NEB AND SRN MO WILL GRADUALLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE STORMS WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...THE TORNADO THREAT WILL INCREASE. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND DRYLINE FROM SE NEB EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS WRN KS WITH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING SEWD ACROSS ERN KS INTO SRN AND ERN MO. A MOIST AXIS EXTENDS NWD THROUGH ERN KS WHERE MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IS ALREADY PRESENT WITH THE 12Z TOP SOUNDING SHOWING 3500 J/KG OF MLCAPE. ALTHOUGH THE ONGOING CONVECTION IS ELEVATED ATTM....SFC-BASED CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP AS THE INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO INCREASE. THE INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 8.0 C/KM WILL RESULT IN SUPERCELLS WITH A LARGE HAIL THREAT. AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...EXTREME INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP WITH MLCAPE REACHING 4500 TO 5500 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF ERN KS AND VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER SUPERCELLS. IN ADDITION...THE 35 KT LOW-LEVEL JET CURRENTLY OVER WRN OK IS FORECAST TO SHIFT NEWD INTO ERN KS WHERE SFC WIND ARE BACKED. THIS WILL CREATE STRONGLY VEERED LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES WHICH WILL COINCIDE WITH THE INCREASING INSTABILITY...RESULTING IN A TORNADO THREAT DEVELOPING ACROSS ERN KS AND SW MO THIS AFTERNOON. ..BROYLES.. 06/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID... 38229196 37919157 37669122 37219140 36869266 37099476 38009646 38789720 39919768 40489766 40999692 41099620 40669546 39649486 38959369 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 12 15:50:32 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 12 Jun 2004 10:50:32 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406121550.i5CFoD210322@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 121549 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121548 KYZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-121815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1213 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1048 AM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IND...KY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 121548Z - 121815Z THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS SRN IND AND MUCH OF KY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LONG-LIVED THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS CONTINUE ALONG AND NEAR ELONGATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM S-CENTRAL OH WSWWD ALONG THE OHIO RIVER INTO SRN MO. AIR MASS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ACROSS FAR SRN IND AND MUCH OF KY. DAYTIME HEATING AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO 100MB MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-2500 J/KG AS OF 15Z...AND CIN IS MINIMAL. WSWLY SFC-6KM SHEAR OF 20-30 KT PER LOUISVILLE VAD AND REGIONAL ETA FORECAST SOUNDINGS THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY FAVOR CONTINUATION OF MULTICELLULAR STORM CLUSTERS...WITH REGENERATION OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG LEADING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. IF STRONGER COLD POOLS CAN DEVELOP...STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS. OTHERWISE...EMBEDDED STRONG CORES WILL POSE A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL ACROSS FAR SRN IND AND MUCH OF KY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IF STORM ORGANIZATION AND INTENSITY CONTINUES TO INCREASE...WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. ..BANACOS.. 06/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH... 37578843 38408767 38938649 39028557 39128440 38718385 38038274 37248278 36918375 37008552 36838756 36808877 36918901 37278883 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 12 16:40:42 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 12 Jun 2004 11:40:42 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406121640.i5CGeV201921@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 121639 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121638 KYZ000-MOZ000-TNZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-121845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1214 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1138 AM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AR...SRN MO...FAR NE OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 121638Z - 121845Z SCATTERED STORMS ONGOING ACROSS NRN AR AND SRN MO WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. FARTHER WEST ACROSS NE OK...NEW DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR BY MID-AFTERNOON WITH LARGE HAIL PROBABLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING SLOWLY SWD ACROSS SRN MO. MODERATE INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS AR AND NE OK WHERE MLCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 1500 TO 2500 J/KG. A BAND OF PVA IS CAUSING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACROSS WRN AR AND NE OK ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX. THIS LIFT COMBINED WITH THE INCREASING INSTABILITY...WILL PROMOTE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER SHEAR ENHANCED BY THE MID-LEVEL JET OF ABOUT 35 KT WILL SUPPORT SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM 6.5 TO 7.0 C/KM SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS. IN ADDITION...THE UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WILL PROMOTE A WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL. ..BROYLES.. 06/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...TSA... 36719266 36919116 37168999 37028946 36378950 35938975 35439072 35219323 35439470 36039552 36439570 36909535 36789389 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 12 17:44:42 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 12 Jun 2004 12:44:42 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406121744.i5CHiN231377@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 121743 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121743 IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-121915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1215 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1243 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NEB...SWRN IA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 446... VALID 121743Z - 121915Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A MESO-SCALE LOW HAS DEVELOPED ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NOW MOVING ACROSS SERN NEB. THIS IS ENHANCING SHEAR AND CONVERGENCE EWD INTO SWRN IA. EXTREME INSTABILITY IS FEEDING INTO THE DEVELOPING TORNADIC SUPERCELLS FROM SAUNDERS SWD TO GAGE COUNTIES. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING 260/25-30 AND WILL REACH THE MO RIVER AROUND 18Z VICINITY OF OMA AND 19Z NEAR MO/IA BORDER. TORNADOS HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN THE SAUNDERS COUNTY SUPERCELL AND ARE LIKELY WITH THE GAGE COUNTY STORM. CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR A POSSIBLE LARGE...DAMAGING TORNADO AS ACTIVITY MOVES INTO SWRN IA. ..HALES.. 06/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX... 40939633 41919638 42129561 42079501 41929464 41589455 41319465 40629505 40219534 40159577 40279666 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 12 18:00:36 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 12 Jun 2004 13:00:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406121800.i5CI0H206979@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 121759 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121759 TNZ000-NCZ000-KYZ000-122030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1216 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1259 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...TN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 121759Z - 122030Z ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS MIDDLE AND ERN TN. ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS KY MAY SETTLE SWD INTO NRN TN BY LATE AFTERNOON. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED SOON. MOIST AND UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR WILL PERSIST THROUGH MAX HEATING PERIOD ACROSS MIDDLE/ERN TN...WHERE 100MB MLCAPE VALUES HAVE INCREASED TO 2000-2500 J/KG WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S. MINIMAL CIN HAS ALLOWED FOR ISOLATED AIRMASS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MIDDLE/ERN TN...WITH MOVEMENT GENERALLY ENEWD AT 15-20 KT. PULSE CHARACTERISTICS ARE LIKELY WITH STORMS ACROSS THE AREA GIVEN AMPLE INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL SFC-6KM SHEAR OF 20-25 KT. EAST-WEST ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS SRN KY SHOULD PROPAGATE SLOWLY SWD ALLOWING FOR GREATER COVERAGE OF STORMS ACROSS NRN TN DURING NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY ALSO FAVOR STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NWRN TN DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. ..BANACOS.. 06/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG... 36628586 36468267 35988287 35728327 35438394 35258433 35048475 35298852 35478975 36418916 36668697 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 12 18:14:25 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 12 Jun 2004 13:14:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406121814.i5CIE2212731@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 121812 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121812 KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-122015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1217 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0112 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...OK...SRN KS AND NW TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 121812Z - 122015Z STORM INITIATION IS EXPECTED BY 21Z EAST OF THE DRYLINE ACROSS OK...SRN KS AND NW TX. TORNADIC SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED BY MID-AFTERNOON. SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A LOW ACROSS WCNTRL KS WITH A DRYLINE EXTENDING SSWWD INTO THE ERN TX PANHANDLE. EAST OF THE DRYLINE...SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S F WHERE MLCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 3000 TO 4000 J/KG. A STRONG VORTICITY MAX CURRENTLY EXISTS ACROSS SW KS AND AS THIS FEATURE MOVES EWD...INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD HELP THE CAPPING INVERSION TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN. RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONFIRM THIS AND THE WEAKENING CAP COMBINED WITH THE EXTREME INSTABILITY BY 21Z SHOULD RESULT IN EXPLOSIVE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FIRST ACROSS SCNTRL KS AND THEN FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS OK AND NW TX. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 25 TO 35 KT ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION WHICH GIVEN THE EXTREME INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. THE SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET OF 30 KT ACROSS OK AND SRN KS IS CREATING STRONGLY VEERED LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES. AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE LOW-LEVEL VEERING WILL BECOME ENHANCED AND A FEW STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE BACKED SFC FLOW OVER NRN OK...SRN KS AND CNTRL KS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE SUPERCELLS CONSIDERING THE STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PLACE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS HAVING A POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL. ..BROYLES.. 06/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...FWD...OUN...DDC...SJT... 34509958 35899887 37259841 38059819 38439787 38599725 38549587 38189538 37049546 35529613 33789714 33099777 32959887 33239969 33719984 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 12 18:19:36 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 12 Jun 2004 13:19:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406121819.i5CIJE215583@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 121818 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121818 SCZ000-GAZ000-NCZ000-122015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1218 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0118 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN/NERN GA...SWRN NC...AND SC EXCEPT NERN PORTION CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 121818Z - 122015Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH PULSE CHARACTERISTICS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE MTNS OF SWRN NC SOUTH AND SEWD ACROSS SC AND ERN/NERN GA. IF ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTERS CAN DEVELOP...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED. AT 18Z...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM 30 NE AVL TO 15 S CLT TO FLO TO CRE. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED THAT A SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WAS MOVING INLAND TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT DOWN THE COAST TO CHS. THUNDERSTORMS WERE INCREASINGLY RAPIDLY ACROSS THE MTNS OF SWRN NC/FAR WRN SC...WITH AN INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER CU ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MAX HEATING PERIOD...WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS WEAK ACROSS THE AREA...ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE PULSE STORMS WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH WET MICROBURSTS. CONVERGENCE ALONG COLD FRONT IS NOT VERY PRONOUNCED AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER...IF THUNDERSTORMS CAN BECOME ORGANIZED ACROSS CENTRAL/UPSTATE SC IN VICINITY OF THIS FEATURE...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED. ..BANACOS.. 06/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC... 34488053 35168169 35618252 35438303 35168349 34628388 34078357 33298318 32898271 32418183 32248139 32388068 32617996 33387889 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 12 18:55:25 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 12 Jun 2004 13:55:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406121855.i5CIt3204223@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 121854 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121853 KSZ000-NEZ000-122100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1219 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0153 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NCNTRL AND NE KS...FAR SRN NEB CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 446... VALID 121853Z - 122100Z CONVECTION WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ONCE INITIATION OCCURS ACROSS NRN KS AND FAR SRN NEB. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING SWWD FROM THE OMAHA AREA ACROSS SERN NEB INTO NCNTRL KS. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A NEW CUMULUS FIELD EXPANDING IN SRN NEB SOUTH OF HASTINGS. THIS COINCIDES WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AS SHOWN ON OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CHARTS. THE CONVERGENCE AND STRONG INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION BY 21Z. THE 18Z SOUNDING AT TOP SHOWS 40 KT AT 500 MB WITH VEERED WIND PROFILES BELOW 700 MB. THIS SUGGESTS SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY WITH TORNADOES POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS SRN NEB AND NCNTRL KS. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR VERY LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS. IN ADDITION...WIND DAMAGE WILL BE LIKELY ESPECIALLY WITH BOWING SEGMENTS THAT FORM AND MOVE INTO THE HIGHER SFC DEWPOINTS ACROSS FAR SE NEB AND NE KS. ..BROYLES.. 06/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD... 39599987 40059950 40399881 40349771 40129666 39749562 39299548 38729590 38599639 38799706 39069852 39129937 39169972 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 12 20:12:57 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 12 Jun 2004 15:12:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406122012.i5CKCZ208741@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 122008 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122008 TXZ000-122215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1221 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0308 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WEST TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 122008Z - 122215Z STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO INITIATE EAST OF THE DRYLINE ACROSS WEST TX. SUPERCELLS WITH A POTENTIAL LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE LIKELY. AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT MAY ALSO EXIST. A NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY BY LATE AFTERNOON. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE DRYLINE EXTENDING SSWWD FROM JUST EAST OF LUBBOCK TO NEAR MIDLAND AND INTO BIG BEND NP. A DISTURBANCE IS APPROACHING THE REGION FROM SERN NM AS SEEN BY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS FEATURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A 40 KT MID-LEVEL SPEED ACROSS FAR WEST TX AND WILL INCREASE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A BAND OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE AND THIS WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS CONVERGENCE COMBINED WITH INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN CONTINUED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR AHEAD OF THE DISTURBANCE COMBINED WITH VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN A FAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. A TORNADO THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST IN AREAS WITH LOCALLY BACKED SFC WINDS. WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WITH THE STRONGER SUPERCELLS. ..BROYLES.. 06/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF... 30250196 29970284 30240363 30660368 31010321 31130307 31740211 33020134 32919982 31580036 30610124  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 12 20:17:42 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 12 Jun 2004 15:17:42 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406122017.i5CKHK211196@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 122014 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122014 NCZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-122215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1222 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0314 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN AR...MO BOOTHEEL...AND TN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 447... VALID 122014Z - 122215Z CONTINUE WW. AT 19Z...ELONGATED EAST-WEST OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE SLOWLY SWD ACROSS FAR NERN AR...THE MO BOOTHEEL...AND NWRN/N-CENTRAL TN. MOST ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE FEATURE ACROSS THE WATCH AREA IS SHORT LINE SEGMENT AND BOOKEND VORTEX MOVING EWD IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY IN FAR NERN AR/MO BOOTHEEL. 100MB MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-2500 J/KG JUST IN ADVANCE OF THIS LINE SHOULD MAINTAIN CONVECTION AT SEVERE LIMITS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. ABSENCE OF CIN SHOULD ALLOW FOR EFFECTIVE REGENERATION OF UPDRAFTS ALONG LEADING EDGE OF STORMS. MOVEMENT IS GENERALLY EWD AROUND 30 KT. THUNDERSTORMS ALONG SWD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY TRACK EWD PARALLEL TO DEEP-LAYER FLOW. THIS MAY RESULT IN A LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN THREAT. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE CELLS WITH PULSE CHARACTERISTICS SHOULD PERSIST DURING NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS MIDDLE/ERN TN WHERE MLCAPE REMAINS AROUND 2000 J/KG. ..BANACOS.. 06/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...JKL...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF... 35009191 36579193 36618374 35028371 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 12 20:32:33 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 12 Jun 2004 15:32:33 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406122032.i5CKWB218373@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 122030 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122030 VAZ000-WVZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-OHZ000-122200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1223 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0330 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN/SRN KY..SRN WV...AND SWRN VA CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 445... VALID 122030Z - 122200Z A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH CONTINUES UNTIL 21Z ACROSS SRN/ERN SECTIONS OF KY. WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL KY EWD INTO SRN WV/SWRN VA CONTINUE TO REDUCE INSTABILITY RAPIDLY OVER THE AREA. AN ISOLATED THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS OR HAIL MAY EXIST BEYOND 21Z...HOWEVER...OVERALL INTENSITY OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE. PRESENCE OF BACKDOOR COLD FRONT BANKED ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIAN MTNS AND OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES SUGGEST THAT HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WILL BE RELATIVELY HIGH INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS FAR ERN KY...SRN WV...AND SWRN VA. EXISTING SLOW-MOVING CONVECTION OVER THE REGION AND ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL MAINTAIN HVY RAIN THREAT FOR SEVERAL HOURS. HOURLY RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 2"/HR ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INTO THE REGION AND PW VALUES AROUND 1.75 IN. WITH DIMINISHING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL... ADDITIONAL WW WILL LIKELY NOT BE ISSUED. ..BANACOS.. 06/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK... 36558110 37188104 38148119 38418211 38558399 37328534 36848662 36708638 36658342 36578247 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 12 20:54:29 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 12 Jun 2004 15:54:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406122054.i5CKs7228699@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 122052 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122051 INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-122215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1224 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0351 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IL AND SERN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 122051Z - 122215Z INCREASING THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS FAR SERN MO AND SRN IL WITH MCS MOVING INTO THE AREA. ORGANIZED MCS ACROSS SERN MO AND NERN AR...MOVING ENEWD AROUND 30 KT...HAS EXHIBITED A STRONG BOOKEND VORTEX ON ITS NRN FLANK DURING THE PAST HOUR. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES INTO VERY MOIST AIR MASS ACROSS SRN IL...POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS MAY INCREASE. CLEARING BEHIND INITIAL CLUSTER OF CONVECTION...WHICH HAS PUSHED SWD INTO NWRN TN...HAS ALLOWED FOR AIR MASS RECOVERY ACROSS SRN IL AND SERN MO /MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG/. A SMALL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED SOON FOR PORTIONS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. ..BANACOS.. 06/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX... 36738885 36758972 37119009 37809029 38088992 38348907 38378849 38218823 37938808 37348817  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 12 21:39:43 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 12 Jun 2004 16:39:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406122139.i5CLdR214182@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 122136 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122136 MOZ000-ARZ000-IAZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-122300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1225 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0436 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN OK...NWRN AR...SERN/ERN KS AND SWRN/WRN MO...INCLUDING KANSAS CITY METRO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 449... VALID 122136Z - 122300Z A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS SERN KS/NERN OK/SWRN MO/NWRN AR. AN ADDITIONAL WATCH MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS FAR ERN KS INTO WRN MO DURING THE NEXT HOUR. CLUSTER OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR SERN KS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE 200/35-40 KT THROUGH 00Z. THE KS/MO BORDER LIES ON THE ERN EDGE OF MODERATE TO VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS...WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. MLCAPE ALONG THE KS/MO BORDER IS AROUND 2000 J/KG. AIR MASS REMAINS ONLY WEAKLY UNSTABLE FURTHER EAST ACROSS CENTRAL MO. EXTRAPOLATION TAKES CURRENT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OUT OF WW 449 INTO FAR W-CENTRAL MO BETWEEN 2230-2300Z. SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR EXISTS ACROSS THE REGION FOR SUPERCELLS...PER LATEST SGF VAD WIND PROFILE. VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY. CURRENT NNEWD STORM MOTION IS NOT PARTICULARLY CONDUSIVE FOR TORNADOES... BUT RIGHT TURNING MEMBERS MAY ENHANCE SRH AND INCREASE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES. PRESENT TRENDS SUGGEST THAT AN ADDITIONAL WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR FAR ERN KS/WRN MO DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. ..BANACOS.. 06/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...DMX...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT... 37809391 36579302 36169341 36189415 36569518 36649573 37549569 38289554 40589412 40579265 38779364 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 12 22:02:45 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 12 Jun 2004 17:02:45 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406122202.i5CM2N224669@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 122201 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122200 IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-122330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1226 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0500 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB/WRN IA AND NERN KS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 446... VALID 122200Z - 122330Z GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES APPEARS TO BE ACROSS CNTRL AND SRN PORTIONS OF WW AREA. 21Z MESOANALYSIS SHOWED SURFACE LOW WSW OF CNK WITH ATTENDANT DRYLINE EXTENDING SWD INTO S-CNTRL KS. REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM MORNING CONVECTION WAS LOCATED OVER PORTIONS OF S-CNTRL/SERN NEB...EXTENDING FROM NRN NUCKOLLS COUNTY EWD ACROSS NRN GAGE COUNTY INTO NEMAHA COUNTY. KUEX/KOAX VOLUMETRIC RADAR DATA INDICATE SEVERAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES N OF THIS BOUNDARY OVER CLAY...SALINE AND LANCASTER COUNTIES EMBEDDED WITHIN LARGER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. THOUGH THESE STORMS WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF ISOLATED TORNADOES... REFLECTIVITY LOOPS INDICATE A SWD PUSH TO COMPOSITE OUTFLOW EMANATING FROM ONGOING STORMS...SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR OUTFLOW DOMINANCE OR TENDENCY FOR STORMS TO BECOME SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ABOVE INCREASING COLD POOL. AIRMASS TO THE S ACROSS N-CNTRL KS HAS BECOME STRONGLY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 3000-4000 J/KG WITH A GENERAL INCREASE IN 0-6KM SHEAR TO 35-40KTS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND STRENGTHENING SHEAR...SUPERCELLS APPEAR LIKELY SWD ALONG DRYLINE...AS WELL AS FARTHER NW WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS WRAPPING AROUND SURFACE LOW OVER S-CNTRL NEB/FAR N-CNTRL KS. ASIDE FROM VERY LARGE HAIL...BACKED NATURE OF SURFACE WINDS S OF COMPOSITE OUTFLOW...N OF SURFACE LOW AND SWD ALONG DRYLINE SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS. ..MEAD.. 06/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC... 42769683 42729289 38229553 38219922 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 12 22:36:57 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 12 Jun 2004 17:36:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406122236.i5CMaa206451@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 122235 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122235 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-130100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1227 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0535 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/NERN SD...AND FAR WRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 122235Z - 130100Z CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL SD WILL MOVE ENEWD AT 20-25 KT ACROSS NERN SD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SEPARATE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS FAR NERN SD WILL MOVE INTO WRN MN DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND/HAIL WILL EXIST UNTIL BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES LATE THIS EVENING. WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY FLOW SOUTH OF VERTICAL STACKED SYSTEM OVER SRN MANITOBA SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING. STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS/SECONDARY COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NE-SW ACROSS SD. STRONG SURFACE HEATING COMBINED WITH COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-16C AT 500MB/ HAS RESULTED IN STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM CENTRAL SD INTO FAR WRN MN. WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG AND WBZ HEIGHTS AROUND 8 KFT...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER CORES. IN ADDITION...LOCALIZED SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE MAY OCCUR GIVEN EFFECTIVE VERTICAL MOMENTUM TRANSPORT AND MODERATE BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS /20-25F/. INTENSITY OF CELLS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SHORT DURATION AND MARGINAL NATURE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IN THIS REGION WILL PRECLUDE WW ISSUANCE. ..BANACOS.. 06/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...UNR... 45520129 45989946 46029751 46049619 45279590 44979673 44879785 44439915 44320010 44350100 44820156 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 12 22:39:12 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 12 Jun 2004 17:39:12 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406122238.i5CMcw207222@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 122238 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122237 KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-130000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1228 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0537 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL/SERN KS SWD ACROSS WRN OK AND NWRN TX CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 448... VALID 122237Z - 130000Z POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES EXISTS WITH DEVELOPING STORMS. CONTINUE WW. AS OF 2220Z...REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC INDICATED STORMS DEVELOPING OVER SUMNER/SEDGWICK COUNTIES IN S-CNTRL KS...WOODS/WOODWARD COUNTIES IN NWRN OK AND COLLINGSWORTH/KENT COUNTIES IN THE TX PNHDL/WRN TX. 22Z MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS THESE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ON DRYLINE WITHIN ZONE OF STRONG HEATING AND SUSTAINED CONVERGENCE. A SECONDARY DRYLINE FEATURE OR CONFLUENCE LINE / DELINEATING RICH... BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE -I.E. LOWER TO MID 70S DEWPOINTS- FROM A DEEPER-MIXED AIRMASS / ALSO EXTENDED FROM JUST W OF ICT SWD TO NEAR END TO SE OF LTS. LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS WRN TX SHOULD ENCOURAGE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG DRYLINE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SUFFICIENTLY STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 30-35KT ORIENTED NORMAL TO DRYLINE SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL EXIST WITH THOSE STORMS THAT CAN MOVE EWD ACROSS ERN DRYLINE/CONFLUENCE LINE INTO ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY COMPARATIVELY HIGHER INSTABILITY AND STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. ..MEAD.. 06/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...FWD...OUN...DDC...SJT...LUB...AMA... 38259878 38249565 32989819 32970115 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 12 22:40:12 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 12 Jun 2004 17:40:12 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406122239.i5CMdq207456@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 122235 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122235 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-130100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1227 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0535 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/NERN SD...AND FAR WRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 122235Z - 130100Z CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL SD WILL MOVE ENEWD AT 20-25 KT ACROSS NERN SD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SEPARATE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS FAR NERN SD WILL MOVE INTO WRN MN DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND/HAIL WILL EXIST UNTIL BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES LATE THIS EVENING. WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY FLOW SOUTH OF VERTICAL STACKED SYSTEM OVER SRN MANITOBA SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING. STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS/SECONDARY COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NE-SW ACROSS SD. STRONG SURFACE HEATING COMBINED WITH COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-16C AT 500MB/ HAS RESULTED IN STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM CENTRAL SD INTO FAR WRN MN. WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG AND WBZ HEIGHTS AROUND 8 KFT...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER CORES. IN ADDITION...LOCALIZED SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE MAY OCCUR GIVEN EFFECTIVE VERTICAL MOMENTUM TRANSPORT AND MODERATE BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS /20-25F/. INTENSITY OF CELLS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. SHORT DURATION AND MARGINAL NATURE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IN THIS REGION WILL PRECLUDE WW ISSUANCE. ..BANACOS.. 06/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...UNR... 45520129 45989946 46029751 46049619 45279590 44979673 44879785 44439915 44320010 44350100 44820156  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 12 22:40:47 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 12 Jun 2004 17:40:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406122240.i5CMeR208075@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 122238 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122237 KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-130000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1228 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0537 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL/SERN KS SWD ACROSS WRN OK AND NWRN TX CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 448... VALID 122237Z - 130000Z POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES EXISTS WITH DEVELOPING STORMS. CONTINUE WW. AS OF 2220Z...REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC INDICATED STORMS DEVELOPING OVER SUMNER/SEDGWICK COUNTIES IN S-CNTRL KS...WOODS/WOODWARD COUNTIES IN NWRN OK AND COLLINGSWORTH/KENT COUNTIES IN THE TX PNHDL/WRN TX. 22Z MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS THESE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ON DRYLINE WITHIN ZONE OF STRONG HEATING AND SUSTAINED CONVERGENCE. A SECONDARY DRYLINE FEATURE OR CONFLUENCE LINE / DELINEATING RICH... BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE -I.E. LOWER TO MID 70S DEWPOINTS- FROM A DEEPER-MIXED AIRMASS / ALSO EXTENDED FROM JUST W OF ICT SWD TO NEAR END TO SE OF LTS. LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS WRN TX SHOULD ENCOURAGE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG DRYLINE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SUFFICIENTLY STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 30-35KT ORIENTED NORMAL TO DRYLINE SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL EXIST WITH THOSE STORMS THAT CAN MOVE EWD ACROSS ERN DRYLINE/CONFLUENCE LINE INTO ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY COMPARATIVELY HIGHER INSTABILITY AND STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. ..MEAD.. 06/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...FWD...OUN...DDC...SJT...LUB...AMA... 38259878 38249565 32989819 32970115  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 12 23:09:39 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 12 Jun 2004 18:09:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406122309.i5CN9Q220082@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 122308 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122308 INZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-122345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1229 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0608 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IL...WRN KY...AND FAR SWRN IND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 452... VALID 122308Z - 122345Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 452 CONTINUES ACROSS SERN IL...WRN KY...AND FAR SWRN IND. PRESENT TRENDS SUGGEST SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS DIMINISHING. AT 23Z...RADAR TRENDS INDICATE SIGNIFICANT WEAKEN OF BOW ECHO MOVING ACROSS FAR SRN IL. DEVELOPMENT OF WEAKLY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY VIA LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION JUST IN ADVANCE OF THE BOW HAS DIMINISHED AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AND LESSENED THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS. PRESENT TRENDS SUGGEST WW MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY. ..BANACOS.. 06/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...LSX... 36658716 36628971 37938974 37908717 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 12 23:13:57 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 12 Jun 2004 18:13:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406122313.i5CNDf221509@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 122311 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122310 TXZ000-130045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1230 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0610 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN INTO SWRN TX CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 450... VALID 122310Z - 130045Z POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES EXISTS WITH STRONGEST STORMS. CONTINUE WW. AS OF 2254Z...MIDLAND VOLUMETRIC RADAR DATA INDICATED A LARGE CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...INCLUDING EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS...OVER PORTIONS OF PECOS/TERRELL AND BREWSTER COUNTIES MOVING SEWD. ADDITIONAL STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG DRYLINE OVER THE PAST HOUR FROM DAWSON COUNTY SWWD INTO ECTOR AND CRANE COUNTIES. STRONG HEATING ALONG AND E OF DRYLINE COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70F HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY AHEAD OF ONGOING STORMS EARLY THIS EVENING WITH MLCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG. MOREOVER...A BELT OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL WINDS /35-45KTS AT 500MB/ CONTINUES TO SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE REGION...TO THE S OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF ERN NM INTO WRN TX. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY LARGE TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS E OF DRYLINE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE COLD POOL PRODUCTION FROM RAPIDLY DEVELOPING STORMS...EXPECT LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. THE EXCEPTION IS OVER PORTIONS OF ERN BREWSTER AND TERRELL COUNTIES WHERE SUPERCELLS ARE MOVING THROUGH AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STRONGER INSTABILITY AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. ..MEAD.. 06/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF... 32930124 32919866 29730082 29750333 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 13 00:02:11 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 12 Jun 2004 19:02:11 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406130001.i5D01o208818@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 130001 SWOMCD SPC MCD 130000 WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-130200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1231 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0700 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MN...NERN IA...WRN/SWRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 130000Z - 130200Z THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS FAR SERN MN...NERN IA...AND WRN/SWRN WI DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WW MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS EVENING IF CONVECTIVE LINE INCREASES IN INTENSITY. CONTINUATION OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT ORIGINATED IN FAR ERN NEB EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IS NOW MOVING ENEWD ACROSS FAR SERN MN/NERN IA. FORWARD SPEED OF LINE IS RELATIVELY FAST...40-45 KT. THIS CONVECTIVE LINE HAS BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH WIND GUSTS OF 35-45 KT IN ASOS OBSERVATIONS ACROSS N-CENTRAL IA AND FAR SRN MN. RUC OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS FIELDS INDICATE THAT THIS CONVECTIVE LINE IS MOVING INTO AIR WHICH IS LESS CAPPED...LIKELY OWING TO GREATER BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ORGANIZED NATURE OF CONVECTIVE LINE COMBINED WITH AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY /100MB MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG / ALONG THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY SUGGESTS THAT DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL MAY BE SUSTAINED INTO WRN/SWRN WI DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ..BANACOS.. 06/13/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX... 42899212 43499292 44379353 45149281 45349127 44909024 44028974 43128956 42768990 42559069 42589130 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 13 00:10:54 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 12 Jun 2004 19:10:54 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406130010.i5D0AX212949@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 130009 SWOMCD SPC MCD 130009 ILZ000-IAZ000-130145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1232 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0709 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 451... VALID 130009Z - 130145Z GREATEST WIND/HAIL POTENTIAL REMAINS ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF WW AREA. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 23Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED LEADING EDGE OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM FAYETTE COUNTY SWD THROUGH LINN COUNTY INTO WASHINGTON COUNTY MOVING EWD AT 20-25KTS. ASIDE FROM AN INITIATION ATTEMPT OVER IOWA COUNTY...SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT ALONG LEADING EDGE OF COLD POOL HAS YET TO OCCUR. 00Z SOUNDING FROM DVN INDICATES THAT DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND ONLY WEAKLY CAPPED. THUS...STRONG TO SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT STILL REMAINS A POSSIBILITY OVER ERN PORTIONS OF WW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. FARTHER W OVER CNTRL IA...STRENGTHENING LLJ FROM ERN KS/WRN MO INTO S-CNTRL IA MAY PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS ATOP STABILIZED SURFACE AIR IN PLACE ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF WW AREA. IF THIS OCCURS...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. ..MEAD.. 06/13/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILX...DVN...DMX... 42399404 42379030 40659034 40639406 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 13 00:59:40 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 12 Jun 2004 19:59:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406130059.i5D0xP231801@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 130058 SWOMCD SPC MCD 130058 MOZ000-KSZ000-130200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1233 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0758 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KS INTO FAR SWRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 449... VALID 130058Z - 130200Z A NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED WITHIN THE HOUR TO REPLACE WW 449. AS OF 0048Z...ICT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A SUPERCELL WITH A HISTORY OF TORNADOES OVER SRN BOLTER/FAR NRN COWLEY COUNTY MOVING EWD AT 15-20KTS. AN ADDITIONAL STRONG STORM WAS LOCATED OVER ERN GREENWOOD COUNTY MOVING EWD AT 25-30KT. AIRMASS S OF THESE STORMS REMAINS STRONGLY UNSTABLE THIS EVENING WITH MLCAPES OF 3000-4000 J/KG. ADDITIONALLY...BACKED WINDS ALONG AND S OF REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY /EXTENDING FROM S OF CNU TO S OF JLN/ ARE RESULTING IN A CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR OVER FAR SERN KS. THUS...ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ALONG AND S OF THIS BOUNDARY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. A NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED WITHIN THE HOUR TO REPLACE WW 449. ..MEAD.. 06/13/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT... 38099574 38099359 37009414 37009625 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 13 01:00:56 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 12 Jun 2004 20:00:56 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406130100.i5D10q232626@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 130059 SWOMCD SPC MCD 130059 MOZ000-KSZ000-130200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1234 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0759 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KS INTO FAR SWRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 449... VALID 130059Z - 130200Z A NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED WITHIN THE HOUR TO REPLACE WW 449. AS OF 0048Z...ICT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A SUPERCELL WITH A HISTORY OF TORNADOES OVER SRN BUTLER/FAR NRN COWLEY COUNTY MOVING EWD AT 15-20KTS. AN ADDITIONAL STRONG STORM WAS LOCATED OVER ERN GREENWOOD COUNTY MOVING EWD AT 25-30KT. AIRMASS S OF THESE STORMS REMAINS STRONGLY UNSTABLE THIS EVENING WITH MLCAPES OF 3000-4000 J/KG. ADDITIONALLY...BACKED WINDS ALONG AND S OF REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY /EXTENDING FROM S OF CNU TO S OF JLN/ ARE RESULTING IN A CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR OVER FAR SERN KS. THUS...ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ALONG AND S OF THIS BOUNDARY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. A NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED WITHIN THE HOUR TO REPLACE WW 449. ..MEAD.. 06/13/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT... 38099574 38099359 37009414 37009625 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 13 02:07:55 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 12 Jun 2004 21:07:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406130207.i5D27e229116@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 130206 SWOMCD SPC MCD 130206 IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-130330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1235 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0906 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS INTO NWRN MO CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 453... VALID 130206Z - 130330Z POTENTIAL FOR PRIMARILY DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL EXISTS ACROSS CNTRL AND SRN PORTIONS OF WW AREA. AS OF 0141Z...TOPEKA/KANSAS CITY RADAR DATA INDICATED LEADING EDGE OF MCS FROM HARRISON/DAVIESS COUNTIES IN NWRN MO SWWD THROUGH JACKSON/POTTAWATOMIE COUNTIES TO CLOUD COUNTY IN KS. EMBEDDED HP SUPERCELLS WERE OBSERVED WITHIN THIS SYSTEM...THE MOST NOTABLE OF WHICH BEING OVER HARRISON/DAVIESS COUNTIES AND HOLT/ANDREW COUNTIES MO. OVERALL SYSTEM MOVEMENT IS TO THE SE AT AROUND 35KTS...WITH EXTRAPOLATION SUGGESTING THAT KANSAS CITY METRO AREA WILL BE IMPACTED BY 0300-0330Z. STRENGTHENING SWLY LLJ FROM ERN KS INTO WRN MO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WILL ACT TO ENHANCE STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW OF VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS INTO LEADING EDGE OF SYSTEM. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. HOWEVER...ISOLATED TORNADOES REMAIN POSSIBLE...BOTH IN ASSOCIATION WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND NON-DESCENDING VARIETY ALONG LEADING EDGE OF GUST FRONT. ..MEAD.. 06/13/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC... 40669843 40619213 38099304 38079912 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 13 02:12:56 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 12 Jun 2004 21:12:56 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406130212.i5D2Ci231036@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 130210 SWOMCD SPC MCD 130210 WIZ000-MNZ000-130415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1236 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0910 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL MN/NWRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 130210Z - 130415Z ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WHILE POSSIBLY EXPANDING IN AREAL COVERAGE ENEWD INTO NWRN WI. AS LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES ABOVE REMNANT COLD DOME. OVERALL THREAT APPEARS MARGINAL FOR A WW. WV IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT A MODERATE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EWD FROM ERN SD THROUGH MN OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS. INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE AND ELEVATED UNCAPPED MUCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG WILL AID IN CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION FROM WCENTRAL INTO ECENTRAL MN/NWRN WI OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DEGREE OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN MARGINAL FOR ELEVATED SUPERCELLS...WITH ONLY 45-50 KTS AT MID LEVELS ATOP 25-30 SWLY KTS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. HOWEVER...PLUME OF STEEP LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE AND DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WILL FAVOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. ..CROSBIE.. 06/13/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...FSD...ABR... 44359595 44819637 45599617 45719524 45849291 45999152 45269098 44239216 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 13 02:35:00 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 12 Jun 2004 21:35:00 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406130234.i5D2Yd206800@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 130233 SWOMCD SPC MCD 130233 WIZ000-MNZ000-130430- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1237 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0933 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SCENTRAL KS...WRN AND CENTRAL OK...NWRN/NCENTRAL TX CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 448... VALID 130233Z - 130430Z PORTIONS OF WW 448 WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE REPLACED WITH A NEW WW BEFORE EXPIRATION TIME OF 04Z...WITH SOME POTENTIAL THAT MUCH OF WW 448 WILL NEED TO BE REPLACED. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS AS IT MOVES ENEWD AROUND 45 KTS FROM NORTH OF ABI/SW OF SPS INTO THE SERN PORTION OF WW 448 JACK/WISE AND CLAY COUNTIES BY AROUND 04Z. STRENGTH OF COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LINE AND MINIMAL INHIBITION NOTED ON THE FWD SOUNDING...SHOULD SUPPORT A SEVERE THREAT THAT WILL LAST AT LEAST SEVERAL HOURS BEYOND 04Z INTO NCENTRAL TX WHERE A NEW WW WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ISSUED BEFORE 04Z. FARTHER NORTH...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NWRN TX CONVECTION HAS BEEN INTERSECTING A OLD CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER THE SERN TX PANHANDLE AND NEW STRONG-SEVERE CONVECTION WAS DEVELOPING IN THIS AREA. NWD PROGRESS OF NEW DEVELOPMENT WHERE THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL MOVE NWD INTO ONLY WEAKLY CAPPED AIRMASS REMAINS UNCERTAIN. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT WITH THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET CONVECTION MAY BE MAINTAINED FOR QUITE SOME TIME THIS EVENING OVER WRN OK IF DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES OVER THE NEXT HOUR. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SUPERCELL OVER BUTLER/COWLEY COUNTY LINE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD AROUND 15 KTS WITH THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES CONTINUING AS IT MOVES INTO WW 454. CONVECTION MOVING ESEWD OUT OF CENTRAL KS MAY BACKBUILD SWD INTO SCENTRAL KS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THUS THIS AREA MAY AS WELL NEED TO BE PUT INTO A REPLACEMENT SEVERE WW BEFORE 04Z. ..CROSBIE.. 06/13/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...FSD...ABR... 44359595 44819637 45599617 45719524 45849291 45999152 45269098 44239216 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 13 04:25:50 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 12 Jun 2004 23:25:50 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406130425.i5D4PZ231476@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 130424 SWOMCD SPC MCD 130424 TXZ000-130600- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1238 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1124 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...W-CNTRL INTO N-CNTRL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 455... VALID 130424Z - 130600Z GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR PRIMARILY DAMAGING WINDS EXISTS ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF WW AREA. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL DOWNSTREAM WATCH. AS OF 0412Z...FT. WORTH RADAR DATA INDICATED LEADING EDGE OF GUST FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH SMALL MCS FROM MONTAGUE COUNTY SWD ACROSS WISE AND PARKER COUNTIES AND THEN SWWD INTO ERATH COUNTY. THOUGH GUST FRONT HAS REMAINED RELATIVELY CLOSE TO PARENT STORMS...HIGHER REFLECTIVITY CORES HAVE WEAKENED OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR. STRENGTHENING CAP OVER INFLOW AIRMASS SUGGESTED BY RUC ANALYSIS FIELDS MAY IN PART BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS TREND. THOUGH AN ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG GUST FRONT...IT APPEARS THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS IS DIMINISHING. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AND IF IT APPEARS THAT MCS IS RE-ORGANIZING...AN ADDITIONAL DOWNSTREAM WW MAY BE NECESSARY. ..MEAD.. 06/13/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...LUB...MAF... 32990001 32969726 31689864 31660143 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 13 04:49:54 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 12 Jun 2004 23:49:54 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406130449.i5D4nX208738@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 130448 SWOMCD SPC MCD 130447 MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-130615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1239 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1147 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN KS/SWRN MO INTO FAR NERN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 130447Z - 130615Z POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED WIND/HAIL WILL EXIST WITH STRONGEST STORMS. ADDITIONAL WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. TSTMS HAVE GRADUALLY INCREASED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE PAST HOUR ALONG A SURGING GUST FRONT FROM POLK AND LAWRENCE COUNTIES IN SWRN MO WWD INTO CHEROKEE COUNTY IN FAR SERN KS. ALTHOUGH AIRMASS REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE...RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A STRENGTHENING CAP...SUGGESTING THAT THIS INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE COMPLETELY REALIZED. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS EWD THROUGH THE SPRINGFIELD AREA...HOWEVER OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS TOO LOCALIZED TO WARRANT AN ADDITIONAL WW ATTM. ..MEAD.. 06/13/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...ICT... 37209497 37579332 37459252 36709275 36469329 36499472 36849530 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 13 06:45:35 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 13 Jun 2004 01:45:35 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406130645.i5D6jK223348@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 130644 SWOMCD SPC MCD 130644 MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-130815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1240 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0144 AM CDT SUN JUN 13 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KS / W CENTRAL AND SWRN MO... CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 456... VALID 130644Z - 130815Z THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF WW AREA ATTM...ALTHOUGH SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE DECREASING. MOIST / UNSTABLE AIRMASS PERSISTS ACROSS OK / CENTRAL AND SRN KS INTO SWRN MO ATTM...NEAR AND S OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW / BAROCLINIC ZONE. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS STORMS REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY FROM EAST OF DDC TOWARD ICT...BUT A SWD SURGE AT 30 KT IS INDICATED OVER SERN KS TOWARD NERN OK WHERE SWD-MOVING COLD-POOL AND SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET ARE COMBINING TO PRODUCE STRONG LOW-LEVEL UVV ALONG AND N OF GUST FRONT. ALTHOUGH DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND PRESENCE OF 30 TO 40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE...DEEP-LAYER FLOW ACROSS THIS REGION IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG ABOVE THE LOW-LEVEL JET. THIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE INTENSITY OF ANY ISOLATED STORMS MAY REMAIN LIMITED -- WITH HAIL LIKELY THE MAIN THREAT. ELSEWHERE...WHERE MORE LINEAR STORM ORGANIZATION PERSISTS...LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR CONVECTIVE LINES. HOWEVER...WE REMAIN UNCERTAIN REGARDING POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE / DAMAGING GUSTS. GREATEST THREAT WOULD APPEAR TO BE ACROSS SERN KS / NERN OK AHEAD OF SWD-SURGING LINE -- WHICH WILL REACH THE KS-OK BORDER / SRN PORTIONS OF WW NEAR ITS 13/08Z EXPIRATION. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF THIS CONVECTION FOR POSSIBILITY OF A NEW WW INTO PARTS OF NRN OK. THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO APPEARS TO EXIST OVER PARTS OF KS -- PARTICULARLY FROM NEAR ICT WWD INTO KIOWA / EDWARDS COUNTIES WHERE FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF SLOW-MOVING STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED. ..GOSS.. 06/13/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC... 38529655 37839373 36939364 36149491 35939636 36709740 37669945 38189814 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 13 12:31:20 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 13 Jun 2004 07:31:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406131231.i5DCV5216645@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 131229 SWOMCD SPC MCD 131229 MIZ000-WIZ000-131400- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1241 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0729 AM CDT SUN JUN 13 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND NRN WI... CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 131229Z - 131400Z THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL WI ATTM...AND MAY POSE A LOCALIZED SEVERE THREAT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN NARROW AXIS OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY ACROSS CENTRAL WI ATTM. STORMS ARE DEVELOPING NEAR SURFACE TROUGH AXIS MOVING EWD ACROSS WRN WI...AND AHEAD OF LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR LSE MOVING NNEWD TOWARD CENTRAL WI. MODERATE DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD EXISTS ACROSS THIS REGION...PROVIDING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR STORM ORGANIZATION / ROTATION. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS LIMITED AND ELEVATED ABOVE A SHALLOW / STABLE SURFACE LAYER...A FEW STRONGER / ROTATING STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ATTM...WW NOT ANTICIPATED GIVEN LIMITED / NARROW INSTABILITY AXIS WHICH SHOULD ALLOW ONLY A LOCAL / MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...IF MORE WIDESPREAD STORM DEVELOPMENT BECOMES EVIDENT...WW MAY BE REQUIRED. ..GOSS.. 06/13/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...MPX... 44299151 46488967 46668836 46298756 45078825 43508942 43129051 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 13 15:32:19 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 13 Jun 2004 10:32:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406131532.i5DFW0206308@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 131530 SWOMCD SPC MCD 131529 KYZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-131730- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1242 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1029 AM CDT SUN JUN 13 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...TN NRN MS WRN KY NRN AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 131529Z - 131730Z A SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN ADDED ACROSS TN...NRN AL...NRN GA AND FAR WRN NC. WW MAY BE REQUIRED BY 18Z FOR PART OF THIS REGION...MOST LIKELY INTO WRN TN/NRN MS. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE WILL EXIST WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS ERN KY AND ERN TN...WITH AN EWD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NOW MOVING ACROSS NERN AR. WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR...MLCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 2000 TO 3000 J/KG...AND INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE LATE THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF TN. THE 12Z SOUNDING AT BNA SHOWED ABOUT 25 KT AT 500 MB...WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 30 KT. THIS COMBINED WITH THE STRONG INSTABILITY WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS. STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SFC DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 F WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. ..BROYLES.. 06/13/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...FFC...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG... 34188950 34579040 36059018 36748770 37158513 36548474 34968539 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 13 15:43:55 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 13 Jun 2004 10:43:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406131543.i5DFhb211562@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 131542 SWOMCD SPC MCD 131542 COR KYZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-131730- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1242 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1042 AM CDT SUN JUN 13 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...TN NRN MS WRN KY NRN AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 131542Z - 131730Z CORRECTED TO TAKE OUT MENTION OF NC/GA A SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN ADDED ACROSS TN...KY...NRN MS AND FAR NRN AL. WW MAY BE REQUIRED BY 18Z FOR PART OF THIS REGION...MOST LIKELY INTO WRN TN/NRN MS. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE WILL EXIST WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS ERN KY AND ERN TN...WITH AN EWD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NOW MOVING ACROSS NERN AR. WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR...MLCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 2000 TO 3000 J/KG...AND INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE LATE THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF TN. THE 12Z SOUNDING AT BNA SHOWED ABOUT 25 KT AT 500 MB...WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 30 KT. THIS COMBINED WITH THE STRONG INSTABILITY WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS. STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SFC DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 F WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. ..BROYLES.. 06/13/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...FFC...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG... 34188950 34579040 36059018 36748770 37158513 36548474 34968539 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 13 16:46:58 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 13 Jun 2004 11:46:58 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406131646.i5DGkb206640@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 131646 SWOMCD SPC MCD 131645 MIZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-131815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1243 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1145 AM CDT SUN JUN 13 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN WI...FAR NERN IL...LOWER MI...AND CENTRAL/ERN UPPER MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 131645Z - 131815Z ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NERN WI WILL CONTINUE NEWD INTO CENTRAL/ERN UPPER MI EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED SWD IN VICINITY OF CENTRAL/SRN LAKE MICHIGAN BY MID-AFTERNOON. A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SOON ACROSS LOWER MI. MESOSCALE VORT CENTER CENTERED 35N MSN AT 16Z WILL CONTINUE LIFTING NEWD TOWARD NRN LAKE MI THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE ENHANCED BY UPSTREAM SYNOPTIC-SCALE TROUGH EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY OVER WRN MN. A SUBSYNOPTIC LOW IS CENTERED OVER E-CENTRAL WI WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING ENEWD INTO NRN LOWER MI. A WEAK COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT LINE EXTENDS SWD INTO NRN IL. THE CLUSTER OF ELEVATED STORMS SUPPORTED BY PVA AND WARM ADVECTION SHOULD LIFT NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN UPPER MI DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MORNING APX SOUNDING SUGGESTS AIR MASS NORTH OF WARM FRONT IS STRONGLY CAPPED...WHICH WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS WITH EMBEDDED STRONG REFLECTIVITY LINE NEAR/NORTH OF GRB. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS ACROSS THE U.P. AS FEED OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH. SURFACE CONVERGENCE LINE MOVING EWD TOWARD SERN WI/FAR NERN IL WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SURFACE BASED DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. GIVEN WEAK CAP...STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ALONG LAKE BREEZE ACROSS SWRN LOWER MI. AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY DESTABILIZE ACROSS ALL OF LOWER MI OWING TO STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION. SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN INTO THE LOW 70S ACROSS MUCH OF SWRN MI...AND WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 3000 J/KG BY MID-AFTERNOON. SFC-6KM SHEAR OF 35-45 KT SHOULD ALLOW STORMS TO BECOME ORGANIZED QUICKLY IN LAKE MICHIGAN/WRN LOWER MI VICINITY NEXT FEW HOURS WITH MOVEMENT LIKELY ENEWD AT 25-30KT. PRESENT TRENDS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS...WITH FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND LCL HEIGHT ENVIRONMENT FOR TORNADOES ACROSS LOWER MI BY MID-AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE ALSO LIKELY. ..BANACOS.. 06/13/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...MQT...GRB...LOT...MKX... 41718284 43468312 45818478 46608587 46648684 46508789 45428863 43958857 43078853 42438846 41958822 41798784 41868634 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 13 18:00:08 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 13 Jun 2004 13:00:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406131759.i5DHxm208509@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 131758 SWOMCD SPC MCD 131757 OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-132000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1244 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1257 PM CDT SUN JUN 13 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN IND AND WRN OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 131757Z - 132000Z THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS N-CENTRAL INTO NERN IND/NWRN OH DURING NEXT FEW HOURS. WW IS LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THIS REGION. AT 1745Z...SUBTLE SURFACE CONVERGENCE AXIS EXTENDING FROM 35 E SBN TO 30 NW IND HAS BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING CONVECTIVE TRENDS DURING PAST HOUR AS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION DECREASES. DEVELOPMENT IS WITHIN SURFACE MOIST AXIS...WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 70. CONTINUED SURFACE HEATING WILL RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. STRONG...MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY DEEP LAYER FLOW WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF DAMAGING WINDS WITH ANY SMALL-SCALE BOW SEGMENTS THAT FORM THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER CORES AS STORMS TRACK GENERALLY ENEWD AT 30-35 KT THROUGH NERN IND AND NWRN OH THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. ..BANACOS.. 06/13/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND... 39638554 39628605 40098656 40988617 41758534 41598332 40848299 40218286 39738302 39488367 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 13 18:59:24 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 13 Jun 2004 13:59:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406131859.i5DIx3206211@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 131858 SWOMCD SPC MCD 131857 MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-132100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1245 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0157 PM CDT SUN JUN 13 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NE TX...SRN AR...FAR NRN LA...FAR WRN MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 131857Z - 132100Z SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ACROSS NE TX AND SRN AR WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE OR HAIL THREAT WILL EXIST WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LOCATED ACROSS N TX EXTENDING EWD INTO SRN AR. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS INCREASING ACROSS NE TX ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND NEW CELLS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INITIATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY HAS VERY UNSTABLE AIR LOCATED ACROSS EAST TEXAS WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500 TO 3500 J/KG. IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 25 TO 35 KT OF MID-LEVEL FLOW FROM NEAR THE RED RIVER EXTENDING EWD ACROSS SRN AR. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN ENOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR ISOLATED SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS. VERY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S F WILL FAVOR WIND DAMAGE AS THE PRIMARY THREAT. THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS MAY ALSO HAVE A HAIL THREAT BECAUSE OF THE STRONG INSTABILITY PRESENT. ..BROYLES.. 06/13/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...FWD... 32669159 32619222 32319515 32889577 33629575 33939456 34309155 34299037 33778989 32939017 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 13 19:03:20 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 13 Jun 2004 14:03:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406131903.i5DJ2x208208@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 131902 SWOMCD SPC MCD 131901 MIZ000-132030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1246 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0201 PM CDT SUN JUN 13 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER MI CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 459... VALID 131901Z - 132030Z CONTINUE WW. AT 1850Z...BROKEN LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS EXTENDED FROM NRN LAKE MI SEWD TO GRATIOT COUNTY IN CENTRAL LOWER MI. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE ENEWD ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF LOWER MI AND SAGINAW BAY REGION DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE 18Z APX SOUNDING INDICATED MUCAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG...AND LATEST VAD WIND FROM THE AREA SHOWS STRONG LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE AND 0-1KM SRH OF 100-150 M2/S2. ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES WITH ONGOING BAND OF STORMS. TO THE WEST...CONVECTIVE TRENDS SHOULD SLOWLY INCREASE NEAR AND SOUTH OF SUBSYNOPTIC LOW NEAR THE CENTRAL WI SHORELINE. TRENDS SUGGEST AN ADDITIONAL LINE OF STORMS MAY ORGANIZE ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN LAKE MI INTO WRN LOWER MI BY LATE AFTERNOON. AIR MASS REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE ACROSS MOST OF WRN AND ESPECIALLY SWRN LOWER MI TO SUPPORT CONTINUED SEVERE THREAT. ..BANACOS.. 06/13/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR... 41768301 41778647 45698620 45688248 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 13 19:48:36 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 13 Jun 2004 14:48:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406131948.i5DJmG229250@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 131946 SWOMCD SPC MCD 131946 MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-132145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1247 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0246 PM CDT SUN JUN 13 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SE NEB...NE KS...NW MO AND FAR SW IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 131946Z - 132145Z ISOLATED CONVECTION CURRENTLY DEVELOPING NEAR THE NEB-KS STATE LINE IN SE NEB WILL CONTINUE EWD AND SHOULD STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY INITIATE WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THE STORMS. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING SWWD FROM WRN IA INTO SE NEB. A DRYLINE IS PRESENT FROM EAST OF HASTINGS EXTENDING SWWD INTO NW KS. THE DRYLINE IS CURRENTLY ENHANCING CONVERGENCE IN AN AREA OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT FROM A SHORTWAVE EXTENDING SWD THROUGH ERN NEB. AS A RESULT...ISOLATED CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING NEAR THE NEB-KS STATE LINE. SBCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S F IN THE VICINITY OF THE MO RIVER. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A MESOSCALE MID-LEVEL JET OF 45 KT ACROSS SE NEB AND THIS IS ENHANCING SHEAR...MAKING THE ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. SFC TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S F AND 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -12C ARE CREATING STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS COMBINED WITH WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 9,000 FEET WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. ..BROYLES.. 06/13/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID... 40639682 40719505 40629425 40489379 40069356 39499374 39239487 39259623 39349728 39759755 40329751  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 13 20:07:51 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 13 Jun 2004 15:07:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406132007.i5DK7V206820@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 132004 SWOMCD SPC MCD 132003 OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-132130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1248 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0303 PM CDT SUN JUN 13 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/NRN IND AND WRN OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 460... VALID 132003Z - 132130Z THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE EXPECTED TO INCREASE NEXT 1-2 HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL IND SWWD TO THE IL/IND BORDER. CONTINUE WW. SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 19Z REVEALS REGION OF 2-3MB/2HR PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN IND. THIS REGION IS JUST IN ADVANCE OF WEAK COLD FRONT AND INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUD TRENDS ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. ANTICIPATE ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM INITIAL CLUSTER...NOW NEAR FWA...SWWD ACROSS W-CENTRAL IND TO THE IL BORDER. AIR MASS ACROSS CENTRAL IND WILL REMAIN MODERATELY UNSTABLE /100MB MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG / IN ADVANCE OF DEVELOPING STORMS SUPPORTING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT. THE SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS HAVE LOCALLY BACKED LOW-LEVEL WINDS AROUND CENTRAL IND...AND MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT IF DEVELOPING STORMS TO THE WEST CAN REMAIN DISCRETE IN NATURE. MESOSCALE/STORM-SCALE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED ACROSS W-CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL IND. ..BANACOS.. 06/13/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX... 41678753 41788326 39648324 39558545 39528754  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 13 20:32:07 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 13 Jun 2004 15:32:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406132031.i5DKVr217797@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 132030 SWOMCD SPC MCD 132029 WIZ000-MIZ000-MNZ000-132230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1249 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0329 PM CDT SUN JUN 13 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MN...NRN WI...AND WRN UPPER MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 132029Z - 132230Z ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ERN MN/NRN WI/WRN UPPER MI THROUGH THIS EVENING MAY CONTAIN LARGE HAIL. SURFACE HEATING BETWEEN DOWNSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AREA AND UPSTREAM SYSTEM ON WV IMAGERY OVER ERN MN HAS RESULTED IN REGION OF MUCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG ACROSS NRN WI INTO WRN UPPER MI. VERY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-15C AT 500MB/ HAS MINIMIZED CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND IS ALLOWING FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NWRN/NRN WI. AXIS OF BOUNDARY LAYER CU EXTENDS WWD INTO WRN MN SUGGESTING THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL STORMS DURING NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WEST OF MS RIVER. STRONG SFC-6KM SHEAR OF 45-50 KT COMBINED WITH WBZ HEIGHTS BETWEEN 7-8 KFT SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LONG-LIVED STORMS SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE HAIL. ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE GIVEN STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW FIELDS AND STEEP LAPSE RATES. INTENSITY OF CONVECTION IN THIS REGIME SHOULD DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING AS BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO STABILIZE. ..BANACOS.. 06/13/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX... 46839104 46758966 46788842 46108803 45318814 45138914 45099025 45209156 45429392 46029400 46699391 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 13 23:08:40 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 13 Jun 2004 18:08:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406132308.i5DN8M215890@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 132235 SWOMCD SPC MCD 132234 MNZ000-SDZ000-140030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1252 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0534 PM CDT SUN JUN 13 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN SD THROUGH CNTRL MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 132234Z - 140030Z ISOLATED STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NERN MN SWWD THROUGH NRN SD. OWING TO LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE FROM NE SD THROUGH CNTRL MN WITH MLCAPE FROM 500 TO 800 J/KG...BUT WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES. UNIDIRECTIONAL NATURE OF THE WIND PROFILES ARE LIMITING DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO SOME DEGREE. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL FLOW IS STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT 30-40 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR...SUFFICIENT FOR MID LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION. STORMS MAY INCREASE OVER NERN SD NEXT FEW HOURS AS ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH BETTER CONDITIONS THE ATMOSPHERE FOR DEEP CONVECTION. POTENTIAL FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION... STEEP LAPSE RATES AND LOW WET BULB ZERO LEVELS SUGGEST HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. RELATIVELY HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS MAY ALSO ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS. MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT. ..DIAL.. 06/13/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR... 45779565 45189588 44639849 45709896 45829727  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 13 23:55:38 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 13 Jun 2004 18:55:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406132355.i5DNtL202616@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 132354 SWOMCD SPC MCD 132354 MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-140100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1253 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0654 PM CDT SUN JUN 13 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NEB...SWRN IA...NW MO AND NERN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 461... VALID 132354Z - 140100Z CONVECTIVE TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR STORMS TO WEAKEN DURING THE PAST HOUR...AND THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. UNLESS STORMS BEGIN TO SHOW SIGNS OF REINTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT HOUR...WW 461 WILL LIKELY BE CANCELLED BEFORE 01Z. SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM N CNTRL KS INTO SERN NEB. EARLIER INTENSE SUPERCELL THAT DEVELOPED IN VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY OVER SE NEB HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY AS IT MOVES INTO SW IA. OTHER HIGHER BASED CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED IN ZONE OF DEEPER MIXING FARTHER W ACROSS N CNTRL KS IS TAPPING INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE AS IT CONTINUES EWD. HOWEVER...THE ATMOSPHERE HAS EXPERIENCED LIMITED RECOVERY IN WAKE OF LAST NIGHTS MCS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE LOWER 60S AND MLCAPE FROM 500 TO 1000 J/KG. WITH LACK OF LARGER SCALE FORCING AND LIMITED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...BOUNDARY LAYER PROCESSES WILL BE NEEDED TO SUSTAIN MORE ROBUST CONVECTION. THOUGH AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM OR TWO COULD STILL DEVELOP NEXT HOUR OR SO AS STORMS MOVE THROUGH INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS NE KS/NW MO...LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING SUGGESTS OVERALL TREND SHOULD BE FOR ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO DECREASE. ..DIAL.. 06/13/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP... 40579722 40879615 41429585 41149452 39739459 39209553 39569688 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 14 00:31:50 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 13 Jun 2004 19:31:50 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406140031.i5E0VU216914@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 140031 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140030 PAZ000-NYZ000-OHZ000-MIZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-140200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1254 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0730 PM CDT SUN JUN 13 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN IND...OH...AND FAR NWRN PA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 463... VALID 140030Z - 140200Z CONTINUE WW. AT 0015Z...LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED FROM 50E TOL TO 30E BMG. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CELLS WERE LOCATED IN ADVANCE OF PRIMARY LINE ACROSS N-CENTRAL OH AND ARE ALSO DEVELOPING ACROSS EXTREME SWRN OH. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES INSTABILITY AXIS IN ADVANCE OF ONGOING CONVECTION EWD INTO FAR WRN PA...WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. THE 00Z PIT SOUNDING INDICATES MLCAPE VALUES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG...WITH VALUES GENERALLY 1000-2000 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF OH PER RUC OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. WIND FIELDS REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY STRONG PER ILN AND CLE VAD PROFILES TO SUSTAIN ORGANIZED LINE OF SEVERE STORMS WITH THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THE 21Z RUC INDICATES THAT SWLY 850MB FLOW WILL INTENSIFY TO AROUND 40KT ACROSS NWRN PA BY 06Z...AND SHOULD SUPPORT CONVECTION ENEWD INTO NWRN PA/WRN NY LATER TONIGHT. ..BANACOS.. 06/14/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...IND... 38998254 39008622 42368314 42357924 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 14 01:24:38 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 13 Jun 2004 20:24:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406140124.i5E1OJ206680@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 140123 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140123 OHZ000-KYZ000-VAZ000-TNZ000-140300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1255 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0823 PM CDT SUN JUN 13 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TN THROUGH ERN KY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 462... VALID 140123Z - 140300Z TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR STORMS TO WEAKEN IN TN PORTION OF WW 462. OTHER STORMS HAVE INTENSIFIED ACROSS NRN KY AND THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL NEXT 2 HOURS OR SO. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. GIVEN STABILIZING EFFECTS ASSOCIATED WITH COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER...IT IS PROBABLE THAT STORMS OVER TN WILL NOT REINTENSIFY. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY ACROSS CNTRL/ERN KY WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG AND VERTICAL SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST FOR ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS AS IT MOVES NEWD THROUGH AXIS OF INSTABILITY. ..DIAL.. 06/14/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX... 35708562 36708499 37508467 37528549 38798424 38798272 37228347 35798366 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 14 03:12:07 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 13 Jun 2004 22:12:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406140311.i5E3Br219706@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 140308 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140308 PAZ000-NYZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-140445- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1256 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1008 PM CDT SUN JUN 13 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN /SRN OH...FAR NRN WV...WRN PA AND FAR SWRN NY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 463... VALID 140308Z - 140445Z A REPLACEMENT WW WILL LIKELY BY 04Z BE NEEDED FOR ERN PORTIONS OF WW 463 AS WELL AS AREAS DOWNSTREAM OF WW 463. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS AND SFC DATA SUGGEST THAT MODERATE INSTABILITY AXIS REMAINED OVER WRN PA/SWRN NY WITH MUCAPES FROM 1500-2000 J/KG EAST OF WW 463 AND AHEAD OF WELL DEVELOPED CONVECTIVE LINE MOVING THROUGH ERN/SRN OH. EAST OF THIS AXIS...SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET DEEP STABLE AIRMASS EXISTED AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE EWD THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS INTO CENTRAL PA AND MOST OF SWRN NY LATER TONIGHT. EWD MOTION OF AROUND 40 KTS OF INDIVIDUAL BOWING SEGMENTS OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE LINE SUGGESTS THAT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. RECENT AREAL VWP DATA INDICATES INCREASINGLY STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR WHICH MAY FAVOR BRIEF TORNADOES WITH THE STRONGEST BOWING SEGMENTS. ..CROSBIE.. 06/14/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN... 39028516 39918362 40598206 41188121 42168042 42297926 41867905 40787966 38978156 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 14 04:20:12 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 13 Jun 2004 23:20:12 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406140419.i5E4Ju214490@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 140419 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140418 IAZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-140645- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1257 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1118 PM CDT SUN JUN 13 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NEB...THROUGH PARTS OF WRN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 140418Z - 140645Z THREAT FOR ISOLATED HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY SPREAD EWD THROUGH SERN SD...SWRN MN...NE NEB AND PARTS OF WRN IA NEXT FEW HOURS. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK ARE MOVING EWD THROUGH CNTRL SD INTO N CNTRL NEB. MID LEVEL ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO PROMOTE ELEVATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS ERN SD...SWRN MN INTO EXTREME NRN NEB. SWLY LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS SRN NEB IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE 00Z RAOB DATA SHOWED AN AREA OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR OVER KS...AND AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AND VEERS...THETA-E ADVECTION WILL INCREASE THROUGH ERN NEB INTO PARTS OF IA INTO THE EARLY MORNING. THE RETURNING HIGHER THETA-E AIR BELOW COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT DESTABILIZATION AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES NEWD WITH TIME. GIVEN PRESENCE OF CAP AND MOSTLY MID LEVEL ASCENT EXPECTED IN THIS AREA...STORMS WILL NOT LIKELY TAP INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR. HOWEVER...STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PRESENCE OF MID LEVEL ASCENT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO PROMOTE MID LEVEL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER MAY ENHANCE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. ..DIAL.. 06/14/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX... 43279438 42649388 42089454 42059620 42239760 42809799 43679746 44089567 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 14 04:57:30 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 13 Jun 2004 23:57:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406140457.i5E4vB228933@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 140456 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140456 IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-140730- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1258 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1156 PM CDT SUN JUN 13 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SERN NEB...SRN IA AND EXTREME NW MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 140456Z - 140730Z THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM PARTS OF EXTREME SERN NEB... INTO SRN IA AND EXTREME NRN MO WITHIN THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW LATER THIS MORNING. A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LEFT FROM THIS EVENINGS SUPERCELL EXTENDS FROM NRN MO NWWD THROUGH SERN NEB. THE LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND VEER ACROSS SERN NEB LATER THIS MORNING AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SD CONTINUES EWD TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY. THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL SUPPORT ADVECTION OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR OVER KS NEWD INTO NEB AND IA. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT NEWD DESTABILIZATION INTO ERN NEB/IA WITH TIME. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING AS STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET ENHANCES LIFT ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. GIVEN EXPECTED STRONGER LOW LEVEL FORCING THAN WITH STORMS DEVELOPING FARTHER N...THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE ANY STORMS DEVELOPING IN THIS REGIME WILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO THE HIGHER LOW LEVEL THETA-E AIR. ..DIAL.. 06/14/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX... 40459441 40349567 41259621 41929445 41669223 40819228 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 14 06:42:01 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 14 Jun 2004 01:42:01 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406140641.i5E6fg207112@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 140641 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140640 PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-140845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1259 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0140 AM CDT MON JUN 14 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN PA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 464... VALID 140640Z - 140845Z REMAINING VALID PORTIONS OF WW WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 08Z. STRONGER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION IS BEGINNING TO SHIFT EAST OF SURFACE WARM FRONT...WHICH EXTENDS ROUGHLY ACROSS THE BUFFALO NY AREA INTO THE VICINITY OF PITTSBURGH. GIVEN COOLER LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA...AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION... DESTABILIZATION DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY TO BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT CONTINUING EASTWARD SEVERE THREAT. OTHERWISE...STRONGER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TRAILING BACK INTO SURFACE WARM SECTOR ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. BOUNDARY LAYER INFLOW INTO THIS ACTIVITY FROM THE WEST CONTINUES TO SLOWLY COOL...AND POTENTIAL INSTABILITY IS WANING. ..KERR.. 06/14/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX... 39668180 40258108 40478076 40738042 40628019 40507987 39898024 39168130 39228183 39548198 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 14 10:27:13 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 14 Jun 2004 05:27:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406141026.i5EAQv212301@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 141026 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141025 ILZ000-IAZ000-141300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1260 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0525 AM CDT MON JUN 14 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN IA INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 141025Z - 141300Z CONTINUE WW 465...AREAS TO THE EAST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL WW. LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FRONTAL ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH BROAD TROUGH IN MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S. HAS BECOME FOCUS FOR INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT PAST FEW HOURS. ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET OUT OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA/ NORTHEAST KANSAS/NORTHWEST MISSOURI...WHERE SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE IN THE MID 60S...IS STEEPENING ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA...AND FORCING PARCELS TO CONDENSATION AND EVENTUAL LEVEL OF FREE CONVECTION. CAPE APPEARS TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG...SUPPORTING VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS WITH LARGE HAIL IN FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP EAST OF THE MOLINE IL AREA NEAR/SHORTLY AFTER 12Z...CONTINUING INTO AREAS SOUTH/WEST OF CHICAGO BY THE 15-17Z TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...PRIMARY CONVECTIVE CLUSTER...WITH DAMAGING WINDS BECOMING INCREASING THREAT IN ADDITION TO HAIL...APPEARS TO BE CURRENTLY EVOLVING TO THE WEST OF THE DES MOINES AREA. THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH FOCUSED MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH/COUPLED JET STREAKS EMBEDDED WITHIN BROADER CYCLONIC FLOW...WHICH WILL SHIFT ACROSS DES MOINES BY 12Z...INTO THE CEDAR RAPIDS/OTTUMWA AREAS BY 15Z. ..KERR.. 06/14/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...DVN...DMX... 42069431 42479336 42239216 42069065 42008943 41918836 40998833 40578936 40559107 40799293 41049414 41709466 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 14 12:43:36 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 14 Jun 2004 07:43:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406141243.i5EChI217941@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 141242 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141242 ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-141445- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1261 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0742 AM CDT MON JUN 14 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN IA INTO NRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 465...466... VALID 141242Z - 141445Z CONTINUE REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 465 TIL 14Z EXPIRATION. CONTINUE WW 466. AREAS TO THE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL INDIANA ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL WW. LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH...ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS. LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN SUB-CLOUD LAYER NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO EVOLUTION OF COLD POOL ON LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTIVE CLUSTER. MESO HIGH HAS BECOME EVIDENT IN 12Z SURFACE DATA ALONG A MOLINE/BURLINGTON/LAMONI AXIS...AND FURTHER STRENGTHENING APPEARS POSSIBLE NEXT FEW HOURS. THERE IS SOME CONCERN ABOUT DOWNSTREAM ADVECTION OF ANVIL CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION DUE TO STRONG MID/UPPER SHEAR...WHICH COULD LIMIT INSOLATION AHEAD OF CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. HOWEVER...ANY SURFACE HEATING WHICH OCCURS WILL ENHANCE SURFACE PRESSURE PERTURBATION... CONTRIBUTING TO RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS ALONG GUST FRONT AS IT PROPAGATES EAST SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG/NORTH OF INTERSTATE 74 THROUGH THE PEORIA AND BLOOMINGTON/NORMAL AREAS BY 15Z. ..KERR.. 06/14/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX... 41249248 42249079 42208925 41548782 40438772 39998858 39919009 40409300 40889370 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 14 14:08:00 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 14 Jun 2004 09:08:00 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406141407.i5EE7g207704@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 141407 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141406 PAZ000-OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-141500- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1262 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0906 AM CDT MON JUN 14 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IND...SRN LWR MI AND NRN OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 141406Z - 141500Z A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY ACROSS NRN IND...NRN OH AND SRN LWR MI. DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL INCREASE. BOW ECHO IS MOVING EWD THROUGH NRN IL AT 40-45 KTS AND IS EXTRAPOLATED TO BE IN NWRN OH/SERN LWR MI BY 18Z AND NERN OH BY 22Z. DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND GIVEN UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND REGIME...TSTMS SHOULD INTENSIFY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BOW ECHO WILL PROBABLY INCREASE ITS FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. GIVEN DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL...A WATCH WILL BE NEEDED DOWNSTREAM WELL EWD INTO NERN OH. ..RACY.. 06/14/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT... 42238719 42668056 40818051 40508720 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 14 18:53:27 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 14 Jun 2004 13:53:27 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406141853.i5EIrB210160@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 141729 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141729 OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-141900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1267 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1229 PM CDT MON JUN 14 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...LWR MI...NERN IND...NRN OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 467...468... VALID 141729Z - 141900Z BOW ECHO HAS ACCELERATED AND IS NOW MOVING ENEWD 45-48 KTS ACROSS SRN LWR MI AND NRN IND. CURRENT EXTRAPOLATION HAS THE LEADING EDGE DTW-TOL LINE BY 20Z...CLE 22Z AND NWRN PA/OH BORDER BY 23Z. FURTHER ACCELERATION IS POSSIBLE. CONSIDERABLE WIND DAMAGE HAS BEEN REPORTED THROUGHOUT NRN IND AND SRN LWR MI AND GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS INSTABILITY...THIS IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE. PSBL 65+ KT WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY ACROSS SERN LWR MI AND NRN OH THIS AFTERNOON. TSTMS MAY TEND TO BUILD SWD INTO PORTIONS OF ECNTRL IND AND CNTRL OH THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. MEANWHILE...FARTHER N...VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MIGRATING ACROSS WI. MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THERMAL RIDGE EXTENDING NWD INTO THE THUMB AREA TOWARD ALPENA WHERE MLCAPES WERE 1000-1500 J/KG. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NWRN LWR MI AND MOVE EWD DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON. FALLING H5 TEMPERATURES COUPLED WITH MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ORGANIZED TSTMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. OTHER TSTMS ALONG NRN ROTATING COMMA HEAD OF THE BOW ECHO EWD INTO CNTRL LOWER MI MAY ALSO POSE LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREATS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ISOLD TORNADOES MAY ALSO OCCUR GIVEN LOWER LCLS AND BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW VCNTY THE MCV FROM THE GRAND RAPIDS AREA EWD TO THE THUMB AREA. ..RACY.. 06/14/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CLE...ILN...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...IND... 39808706 41168578 42418564 43008628 45378628 45688256 42788255 42908061 40458071 40088467  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 14 19:22:00 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 14 Jun 2004 14:22:00 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406141921.i5EJLf227717@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 141921 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141920 PAZ000-NYZ000-OHZ000-142115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1268 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0220 PM CDT MON JUN 14 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NY AND NWRN PA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 141920Z - 142115Z BOW ECHO MOVING THROUGH NWRN OH/SERN LWR MI SHOULD MAINTAIN INTENSITY AS IT TRANSLATES ACROSS SWRN ONT AND NRN OH AND A SEVERE TSTM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS WRN NY AND NWRN PA. BOW ECHO WAS MOVING EWD AT AROUND 45 KTS AND EXTRAPOLATION HAS IT TO CLEVELAND BY 22Z AND INTO WRN NY/NWRN PA 23-00Z. NORTH WEBSTER VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWS A CLASSIC REAR INFLOW JET SIGNATURE WITH 50-60 KTS ABOVE 1 KM. THE BOW ECHO IS WELL-DEVELOPED AND HAS BEEN PRODUCING WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE THROUGHOUT NRN IND/SRN LWR MI. 18Z SOUNDING FROM PITTSBURGH WAS NOT PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE...BUT A FEW MORE HOURS OF HEATING AHEAD OF THE BOW WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN THE RISK OF TSTMS THROUGH THE EVENING. STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW REGIME SHOULD CONTINUE SUPPORTING BOWS AND LEWPS AS THE MCS TRANSLATES INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION/UPPER OH VLY. THUS...WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL SHOULD CONTINUE DOWNSTREAM AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. ..RACY.. 06/14/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE... 43998057 44167686 41887680 41287794 41018062 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 14 19:37:17 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 14 Jun 2004 14:37:17 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406141936.i5EJax206588@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 141934 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141934 MNZ000-NDZ000-142200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1269 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0234 PM CDT MON JUN 14 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND ERN ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 141934Z - 142200Z THREAT OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS SEVERE WIND GUSTS ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN ND BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 19Z INDICATES INCREASING CONVECTIVE TRENDS ACROSS W-CENTRAL ND...JUST TO THE SOUTH OF A FAST MOVING/LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN ND THIS AFTERNOON...AND GRADUALLY INCREASE AS MID-LEVEL JET ACROSS MT EJECTS EWD FROM UPSTREAM...SRN ALBERTA TROUGH. THE 12Z ETA SHOWS SFC-6KM SHEAR INCREASING FROM 35KT TO 55KT BETWEEN 20-03Z...WHICH WILL FAVOR THUNDERSTORM ORGANIZATION. LIMITING FACTOR ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA IS INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...SURFACE HEATING/STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH -17C TEMPERATURES AT 500MB WILL CONTRIBUTE TO 100MB MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 500 J/KG. WBZ HEIGHTS SHOULD REMAIN LOW...AROUND 7 KFT. A FEW LONG-LIVED/LOW-TOPPED STORMS MAY DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON GIVEN MODERATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WITH THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL OR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ..BANACOS.. 06/14/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... 45960018 46070221 47420305 48950295 48920011 48479850 47759771 46599669 45989658  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 14 20:19:53 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 14 Jun 2004 15:19:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406142019.i5EKJZ202250@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 142016 SWOMCD SPC MCD 142015 ILZ000-MOZ000-142145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1270 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0315 PM CDT MON JUN 14 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN MO...AND W-CENTRAL IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 142015Z - 142145Z MESOSCALE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM HOWARD/RANDOLPH COUNTIES IN N-CENTRAL MO ESEWD INTO THE ST. LOUIS METRO AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ADDITIONAL WW MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS ERN MO INTO W-CENTRAL IL. STRONG HEATING CONTINUES IN VICINITY OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LEFT FROM MORNING CONVECTION ACROSS ERN MO INTO W-CENTRAL IL. THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN HOWARD/RANDOLPH COUNTIES IS IN FAR ERN PORTION OF WW 469. ALTHOUGH VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DECREASING CU EAST OF THIS CELL AND ONLY WEAK CONVERGENCE PER SURFACE OBS...SOME POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY EVENING IN THE AREA. RUC OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS FIELDS SHOW AIR MASS BEING UNCAPPED AT 20Z. SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 AND DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 ARE CONTRIBUTE TO 100MB MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500-3000 J/KG ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. ST. LOUIS VAD INDICATES WEAK LOW-LEVEL WIND ENVIRONMENT... SUGGESTING DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL WILL LIKELY BE PRIMARY THREAT IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP EWD INTO ERN MO AND/OR W-CENTRAL IL WITH TIME. ..BANACOS.. 06/14/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX... 39899253 39689136 39439017 39298980 38958939 38738939 38418979 38189009 38099037 38099127 38149198 38169259  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 14 20:32:21 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 14 Jun 2004 15:32:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406142032.i5EKW3210404@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 142029 SWOMCD SPC MCD 142028 MIZ000-142200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1271 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0328 PM CDT MON JUN 14 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CNTRL LWR MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 468... VALID 142028Z - 142200Z MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTICITY CENTER THAT EVOLVED FROM THE FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS IS TRACKING ENEWD TOWARD THE THUMB REGION OF LWR MI. A FEW TSTMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP VCNTY THIS FEATURE AND ARE ATTEMPTING TO BUILD NEWD INTO NRN LWR MI. HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL APPEARS TO BE ACROSS AREAS EAST OF INTERSTATE 75 AND SOUTH OF A OSCODA-HOUGHTON LAKE LINE. FARTHER N...CLOUD CANOPY ALLOWED THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO COOL AND 18Z GAYLORD MI SOUNDING WAS NOT PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE. CLOUDS MAY CLEAR SUFFICIENTLY FOR A LITTLE RECOVERY THIS EVENING. MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO TRACK EWD ACROSS WI AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES/ENHANCED VERTICAL SHEAR HAVE BEEN AIDING STRENGTHENING TSTMS UPSTREAM. SO...DESPITE THE RECENT LULL IN ACTIVITY ALONG NRN PORTIONS OF THE WEATHER WATCH...THE THREATS FOR HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS MAY INCREASE SOMEWHAT IN A COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. AS A RESULT...WILL MAINTAIN NRN/ERN PORTIONS OF WEATHER WATCH 468. ..RACY.. 06/14/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR... 43388626 45358630 45718260 42898256 42958422 43308477 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 14 20:48:16 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 14 Jun 2004 15:48:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406142047.i5EKlw220415@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 142045 SWOMCD SPC MCD 142045 NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-142245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1272 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0345 PM CDT MON JUN 14 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WV PANHANDLE...S-CENTRAL/SERN PA...NRN DE...AND MD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 142045Z - 142245Z INCREASING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS S-CENTRAL/SERN PA...MD...AND THE ERN WV PANHANDLE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WW MAY BE REQUIRED ACROSS THE REGION. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF S-CENTRAL PA/MD/WRN WV. REDUCTION OF HIGH CLOUDS DURING PAST SEVERAL HOURS HAS ALLOWED FOR BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION...WITH 100MB MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG ACROSS THE DISCUSSION REGION. SRN PA/MD VICINITY IS ON SRN FRINGE OF STRONGER WSWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER ...UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN OF MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD OCCUR THROUGH THIS EVENING AS GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MCS CONTINUE EWD. THEREFORE...THREAT EXISTS FOR INCREASING STORM ORGANIZATION AND FORWARD MOVEMENT ACROSS ESPECIALLY SRN/SERN PA...WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA BY EARLY EVENING. ..BANACOS.. 06/14/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...CTP...LWX... 39437847 40047818 40477723 40687633 40687579 40557512 40167487 39257591 39007692 39037744 39157826  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 14 21:01:01 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 14 Jun 2004 16:01:01 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406142100.i5EL0h227832@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 142056 SWOMCD SPC MCD 142055 COZ000-142300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1273 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0355 PM CDT MON JUN 14 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 142055Z - 142300Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL INCREASING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE...MAINLY FROM COS NWD TO THE WY BORDER. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE WW. CONVECTION FORMING OVER HIGHER TERRAIN IS NOW PRODUCING LIGHTNING WEST OF THE I-29 CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S WITH SBCAPES NOW AROUND 1500 J/KG. SURFACE WINDS REMAIN ELY NORTH OF THE PALMER DIVIDE AND ARE ENHANCING THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR UNDER MODERATE WLY FLOW ALOFT. COMBINATION OF 40-50 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY SUGGEST A FEW STRONGER CELLS WILL MAINTAIN THEMSELVES EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE PLAINS FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST HIGH-BASED SUPERCELLS...WITH ATTENDANT THREATS OF LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. WW MAY BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. ..EVANS.. 06/14/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU... 38520409 38500520 39620528 40930530 40980442 40980304 38660290 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 14 22:12:00 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 14 Jun 2004 17:12:00 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406142211.i5EMBj206707@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 142210 SWOMCD SPC MCD 142209 MOZ000-KSZ000-142345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1274 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0509 PM CDT MON JUN 14 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...N-CENTRAL/NERN KS AND WRN MO CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 469... VALID 142209Z - 142345Z CONTINUE WW. STRONGEST CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE IN VICINITY OF I-70 CORRIDOR FROM MHK TO COU NEXT 1-3 HOURS. AT 22Z...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ALONG STALLED FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM 15S RSL TO TOP TO 15 N COU. STRONG HEATING ALONG/SOUTH OF BOUNDARY HAS RESULTED IN VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH 100MB MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500-3500 J/KG. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY 70+ ACROSS THE ERN 2/3RDS OF THE WATCH...WITH PW VALUES GENERALLY AROUND 1.75". SURFACE WIND FIELDS HAVE BECOME WEAK IN VICINITY OF BOUNDARY...HOWEVER...WLY SFC-6KM SHEAR OF 30-40 KT AND HIGH INSTABILITY VALUES WILL MAINTAIN THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUE AS PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS. WWD PROPAGATION COMPONENT ALONG BOUNDARY HAS RESULTED IN SLOW STORM MOTIONS...CONTINUING THREAT OF VERY HVY RAIN WITH RATES LOCALLY UP TO 2.5"/HR. ..BANACOS.. 06/14/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC... 38129258 38189848 39919849 39909258 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 15 00:05:43 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 14 Jun 2004 19:05:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406150005.i5F05T203180@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 150003 SWOMCD SPC MCD 150003 PAZ000-NYZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-150130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1275 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0703 PM CDT MON JUN 14 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OH...WRN AND NRN PA... AND WRN THROUGH CNTRL NY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 470... VALID 150003Z - 150130Z THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND WILL PERSIST ANOTHER FEW HOURS FROM SERN OH...THROUGH WRN AND CNTRL PA AND WRN THROUGH CNTRL NY. GREATEST WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE WITH CNTRL/NRN PORTION OF THE LINE FROM CNTRL/NRN PA INTO NY NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS EVENING A SQUALL LINE WITH EMBEDDED BOW ECHOES EXTENDS FROM WRN NY NEAR JAMESTOWN SWWD THROUGH NW PA AND INTO ERN OH. NRN PART OF LINE FROM NW PA THROUGH WRN NY IS MOVING EAST AT 45 TO 50 KT WHILE SRN PART IS MOVING MORE SLOWLY TO THE SE AT 35 TO 40 KT. THE 35 TO 40 KT WSWLY LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE OH VALLEY ASSOCIATED WITH GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EWD INTO PA AND NY THIS EVENING...AND MAY STRENGTHEN A LITTLE FURTHER. THIS WILL MAINTAIN STRONG LOW LEVEL REAR INFLOW INTO THE SQUALL LINE...HELPING TO MAINTAIN FAST FORWARD PROPAGATION ALONG THE NRN PARTS OF THE LINE. TRAILING PART OF LINE FROM ERN OH INTO WRN PA IS BECOMING MORE E-W ORIENTED AND PARALLEL TO THE DEEP LAYER FLOW. MOREOVER...MOIST UNSTABLE SWLY LOW LEVEL INFLOW IMPINGING ON THIS PART OF THE LINE MAY EVENTUALLY PROMOTE SOME BACKBUILDING. THIS SUGGESTS IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE THREAT...POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH TRAINING CELLS MAY INCREASE ACROSS SE OH AND SW PA THIS EVENING. ..DIAL.. 06/15/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE... 40258197 40838066 41387991 42557968 42897867 43357699 43057664 42207657 41617689 40917896 39828201 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 15 00:42:48 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 14 Jun 2004 19:42:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406150042.i5F0gY223102@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 150041 SWOMCD SPC MCD 150041 NYZ000-150145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1276 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0741 PM CDT MON JUN 14 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 150041Z - 150145Z ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING OVER CNTRL NY ARE BEING MONITORED FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. WW 470 MAY NEED TO BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER WW THAT WILL EXTEND FARTHER DOWNSTREAM INTO CNTRL AND ERN NY. A COUPLE OF STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER CNTRL NY NEAR SYRACUSE. THESE STORMS APPEAR TO HAVE DEVELOPED IN CONVERGENCE ZONE ALONG A BOUNDARY SHED BY SRN SHORE LAKE ERIE. INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL...AND MAY SERVE AS A LIMITING FACTOR FOR LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...VERTICAL WIND PROFILES EXHIBIT LOW LEVEL VEERING AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. ..DIAL.. 06/15/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF... 42157626 43517644 44277476 43377406 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 15 01:22:39 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 14 Jun 2004 20:22:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406150122.i5F1MV211649@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 150121 SWOMCD SPC MCD 150121 MOZ000-KSZ000-150215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1277 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0821 PM CDT MON JUN 14 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN MO/NERN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 469... VALID 150121Z - 150215Z IT APPEARS THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS IS DIMINISHING...AND WW 469 SHOULD BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 02Z. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY...AND LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE FOCUSED FARTHER WEST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...SO STORMS WILL HAVE A FAVORED ENVIRONMENT ACROSS WRN KS/ERN CO. ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY PERSIST FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO...BUT A NEW WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ..TAYLOR.. 06/15/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...GID... 39919852 39849255 38149258 38259846 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 15 02:16:45 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 14 Jun 2004 21:16:45 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406150216.i5F2GS207373@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 150213 SWOMCD SPC MCD 150213 NYZ000-PAZ000-150315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1278 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0913 PM CDT MON JUN 14 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN PA THROUGH SRN NY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 470...473... VALID 150213Z - 150315Z THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY PERSIST BEYOND THE EXPIRATION TIME OF 03Z. WW 470 AND 473 MAY NEED TO BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER WW THAT WILL INCLUDE PARTS OF ERN PA AND POSSIBLY INTO SRN NY. ORGANIZED LINE OF STORMS CONTINUES FROM WRN NY SWWD THROUGH CNTRL AND SW PA. STRONGEST STORMS IN THIS LINE REMAIN OVER PA WHERE STRONGER INSTABILITY EXISTS DOWNSTREAM WITH MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG. A COUPLE OF ROTATING COMMA HEADS WERE ALSO NOTED. ONE OVER SRN NY AND THE OTHER OVER CNTRL PA. GREATEST DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE S OF THESE FEATURES ACROSS NRN AND SRN PA WHERE STRONGER REAR INFLOW JETS ARE PROMOTING BOWING LINE SEGMENTS. AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND HAS BEEN OBSERVED AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AND THE ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO STABILIZE. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...AND IF STORMS APPEAR TO MAINTAIN THEIR INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 30-45 MINUTES...A NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED. ..DIAL.. 06/15/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...CTP... 39917855 41077737 42037665 42567585 42327512 41137525 39817626 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 15 02:53:30 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 14 Jun 2004 21:53:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406150253.i5F2rE224998@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 150252 SWOMCD SPC MCD 150252 MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-150445- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1279 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0952 PM CDT MON JUN 14 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SERN NEB THROUGH NERN KS AND NW MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 150252Z - 150445Z PARTS OF NERN KS THROUGH NW MO ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND VERY HEAVY RAIN CURRENTLY APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREAT. HOWEVER...AN INCREASING THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND MIGHT OCCUR LATER THIS EVENING. TRENDS ARE BEGINNING TO SUGGEST STORMS MAY DEVELOP A COLD POOL AND BEGIN TO FORWARD PROPAGATE. A WW MIGHT BE NEEDED SOON. LATE THIS EVENING A CLUSTER OF STORMS HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE SE NEB...NERN KS BORDER N OF A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM NRN MO SWWD THROUGH NRN KS. THE STORMS APPEAR TO HAVE DEVELOPED IN RESPONSE TO AN INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND WARM ADVECTION ABOVE THIS BOUNDARY. IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP A COLD POOL...THEY MAY BEGIN TO PROPAGATE SWD INTO THE STRONGER INSTABILITY...AND THIS WOULD ENHANCE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND IN ADDITION TO HAIL. ..DIAL.. 06/15/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT... 39709791 40279498 38879441 38939748 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 15 03:33:50 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 14 Jun 2004 22:33:50 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406150333.i5F3XX213319@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 150332 SWOMCD SPC MCD 150332 KSZ000-NEZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-150500- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1280 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1032 PM CDT MON JUN 14 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO/WRN KS/SRN NE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 472... VALID 150332Z - 150500Z AS OF 0320Z...MAIN CLUSTER OF SEVERE STORMS IS LOCATED JUST S OF RUSSELL AND HAYS KS. THE DEVELOPING MCS CONTINUES TO BACKBUILD PRESUMABLY ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY AND IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT. THESE STORMS PRIMARILY POSE A LARGE HAIL THREAT. HOWEVER...LATEST PROFILER DATA FROM HAVILAND SHOWS NEARLY 20 KT OF 0-1KM FLOW...SO ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THIS SUPERCELL ENVIRONMENT. FARTHER WEST...STORMS ACROSS ERN CO ARE GRADUALLY MOVING INTO A MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS WRN KS. THE IMMEDIATE CONCERN IS DAMAGING WINDS...WITH 49KT GUST RECENTLY AT LA JUNTA. STORMS IN CO ARE MOVING INTO THE INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS WRN KS...WHICH IS ALSO WHERE A 40KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE FOCUSED OVERNIGHT. NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL INCREASE LARGE SCALE LIFT...AND GFS CONVECTIVE QPF FORECAST SUGGESTS SOME ORGANIZED STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS SW KS FROM 06-12Z. OVERALL SETUP SEEMS TO SUPPORT A REPLACEMENT WATCH FOR HAIL/WIND FOR PARTS OF FAR ERN CO/WRN AND CNTRL KS AND SRN NE. ..TAYLOR.. 06/15/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU... 36969851 37590485 40060471 40349800 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 15 07:02:21 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 15 Jun 2004 02:02:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406150702.i5F723215989@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 150701 SWOMCD SPC MCD 150700 KSZ000-150900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1281 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0200 AM CDT TUE JUN 15 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CNTRL KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 474...475... VALID 150700Z - 150900Z CONTINUE REMAINING VALID PORTIONS OF WWS. NEW WW MAY BE NECESSARY ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS BY CURRENT 09Z EXPIRATION. COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE CLUSTER OF STORMS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS IS NOW PROGRESSING THROUGH/EAST OF THE HILL CITY/GARDEN CITY AREAS. MOST RAPID EASTWARD ACCELERATION...AT SPEEDS UP TO 30 KT... IS OCCURRING ON NORTHERN FLANK OF SQUALL LINE...NORTH OF REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/WEAK SURFACE FRONT...WHICH EXTENDS EASTWARD ALONG/JUST NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW TO THE NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY IS ENHANCING INFLOW/CONVERGENCE ALONG COLD POOL...AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR BENEATH 20 TO 30 KT WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW. GIVEN FAVORABLE LARGE-SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME BENEATH DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD...WHICH WILL REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH DAYBREAK...INTENSE CONVECTION WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH IN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH CAPE OF 2000 TO 4000 J/KG. RISK OF LARGE HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS WILL CONTINUE...AND GUSTY WINDS MAY CONTINUE TO ACCOMPANY NORTHERN FLANK OF SQUALL LINE INTO THE CONCORDIA AREA BY 09-10Z. THEREAFTER...MERGER WITH ONGOING ACTIVITY NEAR MANHATTAN MAY OCCUR ...WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THE CONCORDIA/MANHATTAN/SALINA AREAS BY DAYBREAK. ..KERR.. 06/15/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD... 38879999 39209962 39749921 39759862 39789777 39559700 39009659 38669624 38299669 38299733 38159819 37939895 37540000 37750079 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 15 09:51:25 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 15 Jun 2004 04:51:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406150951.i5F9p8229641@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 150950 SWOMCD SPC MCD 150950 KSZ000-151145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1282 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0450 AM CDT TUE JUN 15 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 476... VALID 150950Z - 151145Z STRONG 2-HOUR SURFACE PRESSURE RISES ARE NOW EVIDENT ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS...IN RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING/MERGING COLD POOLS. 6-8 MB RISE CENTER HAS SHIFTED FROM THE HILL CITY THROUGH RUSSELL AREAS DURING THE PAST 1 TO 2 HOURS...AND APPEARS LIKELY TO DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE SALINA/HUTCHISON/EMPORIA AREA BY 11Z...BEFORE SLOWLY WEAKENING. UNTIL WEAKENING OCCURS... STRONG...POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...WILL PERSIST ON LEADING EDGE...AND IN WAKE OF THIS FEATURE. OTHERWISE...AS MERGER OF INTENSE UPDRAFTS OCCURS EAST/SOUTHEAST OF SALINA DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAIN TOTALS STILL APPEAR POSSIBLE ON NOSE OF VEERING LOW-LEVEL JET...BEFORE IT SLOWLY WEAKENS AFTER DAYBREAK. ..KERR.. 06/15/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...DDC... 38599858 38919796 39249766 39559690 39339614 38639545 37919613 37989738 37689849 37939949 38309939 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 15 12:08:37 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 15 Jun 2004 07:08:37 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406151208.i5FC8M209751@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 151207 SWOMCD SPC MCD 151207 MOZ000-KSZ000-151330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1283 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0707 AM CDT TUE JUN 15 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SE KS INTO W CNTRL/SW MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 476... VALID 151207Z - 151330Z SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DIMINISHING INTO MID MORNING...AND NEW WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. STRONGER SURFACE COLD POOL AND MOST INTENSE CONVECTION IS NOW EAST/SOUTHEAST OF EMPORIA AND WICHITA. ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE SPREADING EAST SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH MOIST UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER TO THE SOUTH OF OLD CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTH OF KANSAS CITY INTO THE MISSOURI OZARKS. WHILE CURRENT 40 KT FORWARD MOTION INDICATES CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WILL PROGRESS EAST OF THE REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW BY 13Z...POSSIBLY INTO AREAS NEAR/NORTHWEST OF SPRINGFIELD BY 15Z...ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT ONGOING WEAKENING TRENDS WILL CONTINUE. MID/UPPER RIDGING EAST THROUGH NORTH OF CLOSED CIRCULATION OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST EXTENDS INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI...AND APPEARS LIKELY TO PROVE INHIBITIVE TO THE FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS. AS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...SURFACE COLD POOL AND ASSOCIATED GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS WELL. ..KERR.. 06/15/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT... 38189559 38719534 38579405 38049331 37089357 37079542 37419598 37849597 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 15 13:55:28 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 15 Jun 2004 08:55:28 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406151355.i5FDtB211716@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 151354 SWOMCD SPC MCD 151354 OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-151600- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1284 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0854 AM CDT TUE JUN 15 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL IL...CNTRL/SRN IND AND WCNTRL/SWRN OH CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 151354Z - 151600Z DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY TSTMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY ISOLD AND A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS A FRONT ORIENTED E-W SITUATED FROM CNTRL IL INTO CNTRL OH. AIR MASS VCNTY FRONT WAS MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES NEAR 1000 J/KG WITH WEAKENING CINH. 12Z H5 CHART DEPICTS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MIGRATING THROUGH IL AND IS AIDING A CLUSTER OF TSTMS OVER CNTRL IL. THIS CLUSTER SHOULD EXPAND/DEVELOP EWD ALONG THE FRONT THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. MIDLEVEL RIDGE HAS EXPANDED NWD...WITH FASTER CORRIDOR OF WLYS NOW LOCATED THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. VWPS FROM NORTH WEBSTER/ INDIANAPOLIS/WILMINGTON AND PROFILER AT WOLCOTT IND SUGGEST THAT TSTM CLUSTERS ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE EMBEDDED IN RELATIVELY WEAK UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW REGIME. THUS...STRONG BOWING LINE SEGMENTS ARE PROBABLY NOT LIKELY. THE 12Z SOUNDING FROM WILMINGTON...HOWEVER...DOES SHOW HIGH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS IN THE CLOUD LAYER THAT MAY RESULT IN DOWNDRAFT ACCELERATION. DCAPE ACROSS THE REGION CURRENTLY IS IN THE 500-800 J/KG RANGE. THUS... ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. ..RACY.. 06/15/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...ILX...LSX... 40038989 40288618 40438402 40308296 39218302 38908546 38818944 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 15 14:54:59 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 15 Jun 2004 09:54:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406151454.i5FEsk221109@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 151453 SWOMCD SPC MCD 151452 FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-151645- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1285 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0952 AM CDT TUE JUN 15 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SERN AL...SWRN GA AND WRN/CNTRL FL PNHDL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 151452Z - 151645Z ISOLD TORNADO/DAMAGING WIND THREATS APPEAR TO BE INCREASING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SERN AL...SWRN GA AND WRN FL PNHDL. AREA WILL BE UPGRADED TO A CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK. BANDS OF TSTMS CONTINUE TO FEED NWD AROUND ERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER ERN TX. TSTMS ARE DEVELOPING IN AN AIR MASS THAT IS VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S. MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS STRONGEST SURFACE FLOW WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE WRN FL PNHDL AND SERN AL. STREAMLINES DEPICT A BOUNDARY SITUATED NW-SE ACROSS CNTRL MS INTO SRN AL. VWPS VCNTY THIS BOUNDARY SUGGEST THAT 0-1KM SHEAR IS INCREASING WITHIN THE LOW LCL ENVIRONMENT INDICATIVE OF AN ISOLD TORNADO THREAT. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE MINIMAL INSOLATION. BUT...TSTMS THAT DEVELOP OVER THE GULF WILL MOVE NWD INTO THE ZONE OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL HELICITY AND MAY BEGIN TO EXHIBIT LOW LEVEL ROTATION ACROSS CNTRL/SERN AL...SWRN GA AND THE WRN/CNTRL FL PNHDL. ..RACY.. 06/15/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN... 29408649 30668663 31428773 32008837 32388845 33188832 33688791 33288606 32188431 30418374 29258457 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 15 18:19:10 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 15 Jun 2004 13:19:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406151818.i5FIIs230780@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 151818 SWOMCD SPC MCD 151817 MNZ000-SDZ000-NEZ000-152015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1286 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0117 PM CDT TUE JUN 15 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN SD...SWRN MN AND NCNTRL/NERN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 151817Z - 152015Z TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE OVER SCNTRL/SERN SD AROUND 20Z AND GRADUALLY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. A WEATHER WATCH WILL LIKELY BY 20Z. 18Z MESOANALYSIS PLACES A 1009 MB LOW NEAR PIERRE WITH A WARM FRONT EWD INTO WCNTRL MN. PRESSURE FALLS HAVE BEEN INCREASING OVER ERN SD AND SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS ACCELERATED ACROSS NWRN NEB INTO SCNTRL SD IN RESPONSE. CONSEQUENTLY...ENHANCED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS CENTERED BETWEEN PIERRE AND HURON. VSBL IMAGERY SHOWS LINES OF CU/TCU FROM SD COUNTIES OF HAND-BUFFALO-ERN TRIPP AND THEN SWWD INTO CHERRY COUNTY NEB. WARM ADVECTION...MOSTLY ELEVATED TSTM CLUSTER...IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE SD BORDER INTO SWRN MN AND WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SPORADIC LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...MAIN ATTENTION HAS TURNED TO AREAS FARTHER WEST. AIR MASS ACROSS NCNTRL NEB AND SERN SD WAS BECOMING INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE OWING TO TEMPERATURES RISING THROUGH THE 70S/80S AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOW-MID 60S. RUC2 POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT GIVEN THE ENHANCED CONVERGENCE...CINH WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY GIVEN MID 80S TEMPERATURES. THUS...TSTMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP NEAR 20Z ACROSS SCNTRL/SERN SD. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-45 KTS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS AND LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY. ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP EWD AND SWWD INTO SWRN MN AND NCNTRL/NERN NEB DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ..RACY.. 06/15/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...UNR... 45299723 45089444 44339442 43849516 43559662 43139718 42739784 42049892 41780025 42090141 43909976 44439939 44669894 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 15 18:24:07 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 15 Jun 2004 13:24:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406151823.i5FINp202313@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 151823 SWOMCD SPC MCD 151822 PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-152015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1287 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0122 PM CDT TUE JUN 15 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL IN...CENTRAL AND SRN OH...EXTREME NRN KY / NWRN WV / WRN PA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 151822Z - 152015Z ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS E-W ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHERE AIR MASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLY MORNING CONVECTION INTERSECTS THIS FRONT OVER EXTREME WRN IN AND IS CAUSING STORMS TO BECOME LOCALLY ENHANCED DUE TO STRONGER FORCING. ALTHOUGH LOW TO MID LEVEL WIND PROFILES ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR LONG LIVED CONVECTION...STORMS IN VICINITY OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY / STATIONARY FRONT INTERSECTION ALONG WITH MARGINAL 20-40 KT MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW SUGGEST STORMS IN THESE AREAS WILL BE THE STRONGEST...AND WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED HAIL AND WIND AS THEY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND PROPAGATE EWD ALONG FRONT. FURTHER E ALONG FRONTAL ZONE...MOST PULSE CONVECTION WILL REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...BUT ISOLATED AND BRIEF SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. ..JEWELL.. 06/15/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...ILX... 40368705 40688371 40888104 41048010 40717950 40007954 39338083 38968150 38508252 38888752 39098761 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 15 18:24:39 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 15 Jun 2004 13:24:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406151824.i5FION202631@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 151818 SWOMCD SPC MCD 151817 MNZ000-SDZ000-NEZ000-152015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1286 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0117 PM CDT TUE JUN 15 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN SD...SWRN MN AND NCNTRL/NERN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 151817Z - 152015Z TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE OVER SCNTRL/SERN SD AROUND 20Z AND GRADUALLY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. A WEATHER WATCH WILL LIKELY BY 20Z. 18Z MESOANALYSIS PLACES A 1009 MB LOW NEAR PIERRE WITH A WARM FRONT EWD INTO WCNTRL MN. PRESSURE FALLS HAVE BEEN INCREASING OVER ERN SD AND SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS ACCELERATED ACROSS NWRN NEB INTO SCNTRL SD IN RESPONSE. CONSEQUENTLY...ENHANCED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS CENTERED BETWEEN PIERRE AND HURON. VSBL IMAGERY SHOWS LINES OF CU/TCU FROM SD COUNTIES OF HAND-BUFFALO-ERN TRIPP AND THEN SWWD INTO CHERRY COUNTY NEB. WARM ADVECTION...MOSTLY ELEVATED TSTM CLUSTER...IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE SD BORDER INTO SWRN MN AND WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SPORADIC LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...MAIN ATTENTION HAS TURNED TO AREAS FARTHER WEST. AIR MASS ACROSS NCNTRL NEB AND SERN SD WAS BECOMING INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE OWING TO TEMPERATURES RISING THROUGH THE 70S/80S AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOW-MID 60S. RUC2 POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT GIVEN THE ENHANCED CONVERGENCE...CINH WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY GIVEN MID 80S TEMPERATURES. THUS...TSTMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP NEAR 20Z ACROSS SCNTRL/SERN SD. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-45 KTS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS AND LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY. ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP EWD AND SWWD INTO SWRN MN AND NCNTRL/NERN NEB DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ..RACY.. 06/15/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...UNR... 45299723 45089444 44339442 43849516 43559662 43139718 42739784 42049892 41780025 42090141 43909976 44439939 44669894  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 15 18:26:12 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 15 Jun 2004 13:26:12 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406151826.i5FIQ1203430@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 151823 SWOMCD SPC MCD 151822 PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-152015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1287 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0122 PM CDT TUE JUN 15 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL IN...CENTRAL AND SRN OH...EXTREME NRN KY / NWRN WV / WRN PA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 151822Z - 152015Z ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS E-W ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHERE AIR MASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLY MORNING CONVECTION INTERSECTS THIS FRONT OVER EXTREME WRN IN AND IS CAUSING STORMS TO BECOME LOCALLY ENHANCED DUE TO STRONGER FORCING. ALTHOUGH LOW TO MID LEVEL WIND PROFILES ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR LONG LIVED CONVECTION...STORMS IN VICINITY OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY / STATIONARY FRONT INTERSECTION ALONG WITH MARGINAL 20-40 KT MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW SUGGEST STORMS IN THESE AREAS WILL BE THE STRONGEST...AND WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED HAIL AND WIND AS THEY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND PROPAGATE EWD ALONG FRONT. FURTHER E ALONG FRONTAL ZONE...MOST PULSE CONVECTION WILL REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...BUT ISOLATED AND BRIEF SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. ..JEWELL.. 06/15/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...ILX... 40368705 40688371 40888104 41048010 40717950 40007954 39338083 38968150 38508252 38888752 39098761  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 15 18:32:55 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 15 Jun 2004 13:32:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406151832.i5FIWd208254@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 151831 SWOMCD SPC MCD 151830 TXZ000-152000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1288 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0130 PM CDT TUE JUN 15 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NCNTRL/CNTRL TX CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 151830Z - 152000Z ISOLD LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. PRIND THAT A WW WILL NOT BE NEEDED. VSBL SATELLITE SHOWS TSTMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS NCNTRL/CNTRL TX. AIR MASS HAS BEEN ABLE TO HEAT UP WEST OF THE CONVECTION OCCURRING OVER ERN TX WITH TEMPERATURES 85-90F. GIVEN H5 TEMPERATURES OF MINUS 10C ATOP THIS VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...ISOLD LARGE HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. STORM MOTION VECTORS WOULD TAKE THE CONVECTION SWD INTO AREAS OF CNTRL TX LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ..RACY.. 06/15/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT... 31139898 32539845 32739722 32659639 31589692 30109749 30199871 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 15 18:55:15 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 15 Jun 2004 13:55:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406151854.i5FIsx223521@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 151854 SWOMCD SPC MCD 151853 KSZ000-NEZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-152100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1289 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0153 PM CDT TUE JUN 15 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 151853Z - 152100Z TSTMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND COULD BECOME SEVERE ACROSS NERN NM AND ERN CO DURING THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS PARTS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE HAS BEEN ADVECTION WWD ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH MID 40S TO THE URBAN CORRIDOR...MID/UPPER 50S TO PUEBLO AND LIMON AND LOWER-MID 60S IN THE PLAINS. PRESSURES CONTINUE TO FALL UPSTREAM AHEAD OF THE FOUR CORNERS IMPULSE...AND LOW LEVEL SELY FLOW REMAINS STRONG FROM THE TX PNHDL INTO ERN CO. GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BENEATH STEEP MID TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES...MLCAPES RANGE FROM 1200 J/KG ALONG THE FRONT RANGE TO 2500 ON THE PLAINS. MOUNTAIN CONVECTION HAS STARTED EARLY AND HAS STAYED ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN THUS FAR AND MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS. THE PLAINS HAVE REMAINED CAPPED...BUT CINH SHOULD ERODE SUFFICIENTLY WITH MID-UPPER 80S TEMPERATURES AND APPROACH OF THE UPSTREAM IMPULSE. THUS...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES/FRONTS MAY INITIATE ADDITIONAL TSTMS...FIRST ALONG THE URBAN CORRIDOR...THEN OUT ON THE PLAINS. THOUGH MIDLEVEL FLOW IS 25 KTS OR LESS...DIRECTIONAL SHEAR THROUGH THE COLUMN AND STRONG INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE LIKELY. ACTIVITY MAY TEND TO CONGEAL INTO ONE OR MORE MCS/S LATER THIS EVENING. ONE WILL LIKELY EVOLVE ALONG/NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT ACROSS NERN CO INTO NWRN KS/SWRN NEB. A SECOND MCS MAY FORM FROM SERN CO/NERN NM INTO SWRN KS AND THE TX/OK PNHDL. ..RACY.. 06/15/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...CYS...ABQ... 36310528 37770525 38250527 38430533 38620530 38750531 38950526 39130532 40570569 40370488 41290261 41290210 40650133 37160148 36090201 35930363 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 15 19:58:01 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 15 Jun 2004 14:58:01 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406151957.i5FJvj229803@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 151956 SWOMCD SPC MCD 151955 CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-152130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1290 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0255 PM CDT TUE JUN 15 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND ERN PA...SRN NY...NJ...WRN CT...NERN MD AND NRN DE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 151955Z - 152130Z THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS IS INCREASING AND A WW MIGHT BE NEEDED BEFORE 21Z. STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM S-CNTRL NY INTO NWRN PA. SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS INDICATE GREATEST VERTICAL MOTIONS FIELDS CURRENTLY EXTEND FROM CENTRAL PA SWD INTO NRN VA. AIR MASS SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE 1000-1500 J/KG. AREA VWPS INDICATE MID LEVEL WINDS OF 35-50 KTS WHICH IS RESULTING IN FAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR LONG LIVED SEVERE CONVECTION. HODOGRAPHS INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH FORECAST STORM MOTIONS SEWD AROUND 30 KTS. POOR LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT HAIL POTENTIAL. ..JEWELL.. 06/15/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...PBZ... 41587898 42477450 41047187 40477383 38707485 39737769 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 15 20:10:59 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 15 Jun 2004 15:10:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406152010.i5FKAh204533@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 152006 SWOMCD SPC MCD 152005 TXZ000-NMZ000-152200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1291 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0305 PM CDT TUE JUN 15 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM...W TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 152005Z - 152200Z ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY TSTMS THAT DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COVERAGE DOES NOT SEEM TO WARRANT A WW. VSBL SATELLITE SHOWS TCU GROWING INTO TSTMS ALONG THE DRYLINE IN QUAY-CURRY-ROOSEVELT-ERN CHAVES COUNTIES IN NM. TSTMS ARE LIKELY HIGH-BASED...FEEDING ON UNSTABLE DRY PARCELS WEST OF THE DRYLINE ATTM. TUCUMCARI PROFILER SHOWS LESS THAN 20 KTS OF FLOW THROUGH 6KM AND IT IS LIKELY THAT THE STORMS WILL REMAIN MAINLY MULTICELL. ADDITIONAL TSTMS ARE DEVELOPING IN THE SWRN TX MOUNTAINS WHERE AIR MASS HAS HEATED CONSIDERABLY THIS AFTERNOON. MORE MOIST AIR MASS EAST OF THE DRYLINE/MOUNTAINS REMAINS CAPPED...BUT WILL EXPERIENCE WEAKENING CINH AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO HEAT. THIS MAY BE FAVORABLE FOR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TO GENERATE ADDITIONAL TSTMS FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE WRN TX PNHDL AND SWRN TX DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STRONGER UPDRAFTS MAY YIELD ISOLD SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. ..RACY.. 06/15/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ... 30110473 35290352 36330361 36380253 35490234 34840244 33550304 30560318 29040313 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 15 22:21:28 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 15 Jun 2004 17:21:28 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406152221.i5FMLC219138@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 152220 SWOMCD SPC MCD 152219 NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-160015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1292 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0519 PM CDT TUE JUN 15 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 152219Z - 160015Z W CNTRL THROUGH CNTRL NEB ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION. ONCE STORMS MANAGE TO DEVELOP...THEY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. A WW WILL BE NEEDED ONCE INITIATION APPEARS IMMINENT. THIS EVENING A COLD FRONT CONTINUES SWD THROUGH NRN NEB. THE ATMOSPHERE IMMEDIATELY S OF THIS BOUNDARY IS ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE OWING TO SURFACE DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE LOWER 50S. HOWEVER...RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS OBSERVED OVER CNTRL AND SWRN NEB...SUPPORTING MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/G. THIS MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE ADVECTING NWD THIS EVENING. IF STORMS MANAGE TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...HIGH TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS WILL SUPPORT HIGH BASED ACTIVITY OVER NRN NEB. AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS SWD...LCLS WILL LOWER AND STORMS SHOULD INTENSIFY UPON INTERCEPTING RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONGER INSTABILITY. OTHER STORMS OVER NERN CO MAY DEVELOP NEWD INTO PARTS OF SW NEB. ..DIAL.. 06/15/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...BOU... 41090231 41890213 42360037 43009884 42219820 41129944 40610127 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 16 00:08:43 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 15 Jun 2004 19:08:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406160008.i5G08X214867@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 160007 SWOMCD SPC MCD 160007 MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-160100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1293 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0707 PM CDT TUE JUN 15 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME NERN NEB...ERN SD...NW IA AND SW MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 478... VALID 160007Z - 160100Z WW 478 REMAINS LARGELY FREE OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...AND UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING ADDITIONAL INITIATION IN MUCH OF THIS AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR NEXT HOUR OR SO...AND IF ADDITIONAL STORMS FAIL TO DEVELOP...WW 478 MIGHT BE CANCELLED BEFORE ITS EXPIRATION TIME OF 03Z. THIS EVENING A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SWWD THROUGH SERN SD INTO NRN NEB FROM A SURFACE LOW IN ERN SD. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS SEWD FROM THIS LOW THROUGH ERN SD INTO SW MN AND NW IA. BOUNDARY LAYER CUMULUS CONTINUES TO BE OBSERVED ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND NEW STORMS MAY STILL DEVELOP. HOWEVER...INITIAL SUPERCELL THAT DEVELOPED OVER ERN SD HAS DISSIPATED. LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN FARTHER NE ACROSS CNTRL/NRN MN IN RESPONSE TO EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET MIGRATING EWD ACROSS NRN ND AND MN. THIS SUGGESTS STRONGER MASS INFLOW AND FORCING WILL BE FOCUSED FARTHER NE INTO THE COOLER LESS STABLE REGIME. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING LOWERS CONFIDENCE THAT ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO DEVELOP AND PERSIST IN WW 478. ..DIAL.. 06/16/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...ABR... 43559498 42469522 42179659 42429795 42889811 44309792 44769711 44749527 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 16 01:07:21 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 15 Jun 2004 20:07:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406160107.i5G176210598@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 160105 SWOMCD SPC MCD 160104 NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-160200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1294 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0804 PM CDT TUE JUN 15 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 477... VALID 160104Z - 160200Z STORMS CONTINUE MOVING EWD THROUGH ERN CO AT 25 KT WITH THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL THROUGH 02Z. THE STRONGER CONVECTION WILL MOVE EAST OF THIS WATCH AFTER 02Z...AT WHICH TIME WW 477 WILL LIKELY BE CANCELLED EARLY. ..DIAL.. 06/16/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU... 38650212 38090241 38500304 40130269 40830266 40790194 39500206 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 16 02:16:59 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 15 Jun 2004 21:16:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406160216.i5G2Gk213777@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 160215 SWOMCD SPC MCD 160215 MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-160315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1295 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0915 PM CDT TUE JUN 15 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SW MN/SE SD/NE NEB/NW IA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 478... VALID 160215Z - 160315Z ...REPLACEMENT WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR SWRN/CNTRL MN... LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME CUMULUS STILL FORMING ALONG COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS AROUND 40 KT / PER LATEST WDL PROFILER DATA /...WITH LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL COMPONENT FAVORABLE FOR LOW LEVEL ROTATION. STORM MODE IS...HOWEVER...SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION...GIVEN LINEAR FORCING OF COLD FRONT. AT ANY RATE...GIVEN FAVORABLE SHEAR AND ONGOING CONVECTION...NEW WW IS BEING CONSIDERED EAST AND SOUTH OF COLD FRONT...FOR A SMALL PART OF SWRN/WRN MN AND PERHAPS SE SD. ..TAYLOR.. 06/16/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF... 42209502 42199825 42369832 43309825 44259729 44759675 44729499 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 16 03:41:47 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 15 Jun 2004 22:41:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406160341.i5G3fW227151@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 160340 SWOMCD SPC MCD 160339 KSZ000-NEZ000-160515- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1296 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1039 PM CDT TUE JUN 15 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN KS THROUGH SWRN AND CNTRL NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 479...480... VALID 160339Z - 160515Z THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ANOTHER SEVERAL HOURS AS STORMS MOVE THROUGH WRN KS AND SW THROUGH CNTRL NEB. LINE OF STORMS WITH EMBEDDED BOW ECHOES FROM SWRN NEB...SWD THROUGH SRN KS CONTINUES EAST AT 30 TO 35 KT. THIS LINE HAS DEVELOPED A RATHER LARGE COLD POOL. A COUPLE OF MCSS ALSO APPEAR TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LINE...ONE OVER SWRN NEB AND ANOTHER OVER W CNTRL KS. THE POST CONVECTIVE GLD VERTICAL WIND PROFILE SHOWED A 40 TO 50 KT REAR INFLOW JET IN THE 1 TO 2 KM LAYER...AND THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE STRONG BOWING STRUCTURE OBSERVED NOW MOVING THROUGH THOMAS AND DECATUR COUNTIES. STRONG COLD POOL SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN THE LINE AS IT MOVES DOWNSTREAM THROUGH THE AXIS OF STRONG INSTABILITY NEXT FEW HOURS. ..DIAL.. 06/16/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD... 38649867 37219906 37160070 39310093 41230158 41980002 41889853 39659848 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 16 04:09:46 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 15 Jun 2004 23:09:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406160409.i5G49Y206285@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 160408 SWOMCD SPC MCD 160408 COR KSZ000-NEZ000-160515- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1296 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1108 PM CDT TUE JUN 15 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN KS THROUGH SWRN AND CNTRL NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 479...480... VALID 160408Z - 160515Z CORRECTED FOR MCSS TO MCVS IN SECOND PARAGRAPH THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ANOTHER SEVERAL HOURS AS STORMS MOVE THROUGH WRN KS AND SW THROUGH CNTRL NEB. LINE OF STORMS WITH EMBEDDED BOW ECHOES FROM SWRN NEB...SWD THROUGH SRN KS CONTINUES EAST AT 30 TO 35 KT. THIS LINE HAS DEVELOPED A RATHER LARGE COLD POOL. A COUPLE OF MCVS ALSO APPEAR TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LINE...ONE OVER SWRN NEB AND ANOTHER OVER W CNTRL KS. THE POST CONVECTIVE GLD VERTICAL WIND PROFILE SHOWED A 40 TO 50 KT REAR INFLOW JET IN THE 1 TO 2 KM LAYER...AND THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE STRONG BOWING STRUCTURE OBSERVED NOW MOVING THROUGH THOMAS AND DECATUR COUNTIES. STRONG COLD POOL SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN THE LINE AS IT MOVES DOWNSTREAM THROUGH THE AXIS OF STRONG INSTABILITY NEXT FEW HOURS. ..DIAL.. 06/16/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD... 38649867 37219906 37160070 39310093 41230158 41980002 41889853 39659848 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 16 07:12:51 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 16 Jun 2004 02:12:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406160712.i5G7Cb221085@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 160711 SWOMCD SPC MCD 160711 MOZ000-NEZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-160815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1297 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0211 AM CDT WED JUN 16 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB...SE SD...NW IA...SW MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 481... VALID 160711Z - 160815Z REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 481 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 08Z. GUST FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SURGE EAST NORTHEASTWARD AT 35 TO 40 KT...TOWARD THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY. BOUNDARY IS MOVING INTO PROGRESSIVELY COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER NEAR/EAST OF THE RIVER...WITH GREATER INHIBITION LIKELY TO SUPPRESS FURTHER SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS LINE REACHES THE OMAHA AREA BY AROUND 09Z. STRONGER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION NEAR/NORTHEAST OF MESOSCALE VORTICITY CENTER LIFTING INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA MAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MORE SUBSTANTIAL NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. ACTIVITY APPEARS MOST LIKELY TO INCREASE NEXT FEW HOURS NEAR WEAK FRONTAL ZONE WEST THROUGH NORTH OF THE SIOUX CITY AREA...WHERE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AIR MASS REMAINS A BIT MORE UNSTABLE. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY APPEARS ONLY WEAK TO MODERATE IN MAGNITUDE... AND THOUGH A RISK OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EXISTS...SEVERE THREAT WILL BE MINIMIZED BY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES. ..KERR.. 06/16/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID... 41509806 41999776 42139705 41739629 40749574 40169578 39739675 39369768 40639761 41129774 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 16 07:20:26 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 16 Jun 2004 02:20:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406160720.i5G7KC223404@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 160719 SWOMCD SPC MCD 160718 COR MNZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-160815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1297 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0218 AM CDT WED JUN 16 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB...SE SD...NW IA...SW MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 481... VALID 160718Z - 160815Z CORRECTED GRAPHIC TO INCLUDE ALL AFFECTED WFO'S REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 481 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 08Z. GUST FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SURGE EAST NORTHEASTWARD AT 35 TO 40 KT...TOWARD THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY. BOUNDARY IS MOVING INTO PROGRESSIVELY COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER NEAR/EAST OF THE RIVER...WITH GREATER INHIBITION LIKELY TO SUPPRESS FURTHER SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS LINE REACHES THE OMAHA AREA BY AROUND 09Z. STRONGER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION NEAR/NORTHEAST OF MESOSCALE VORTICITY CENTER LIFTING INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA MAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MORE SUBSTANTIAL NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. ACTIVITY APPEARS MOST LIKELY TO INCREASE NEXT FEW HOURS NEAR WEAK FRONTAL ZONE WEST THROUGH NORTH OF THE SIOUX CITY AREA...WHERE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AIR MASS REMAINS A BIT MORE UNSTABLE. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY APPEARS ONLY WEAK TO MODERATE IN MAGNITUDE... AND THOUGH A RISK OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EXISTS...SEVERE THREAT WILL BE MINIMIZED BY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES. ..KERR.. 06/16/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF... 42619831 43609759 44009644 43729469 42339513 41729546 40419484 39709515 39319639 39169762 40529806 41929846 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 16 14:16:52 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 16 Jun 2004 09:16:52 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406161416.i5GEGe219953@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 161415 SWOMCD SPC MCD 161415 KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-161545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1298 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0915 AM CDT WED JUN 16 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND MIDDLE TN INTO THE LOWER OH VLY CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 161415Z - 161545Z AN ISOLD BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO COULD OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF WRN/MIDDLE TN INTO WRN KY AND SRN IND THIS MORNING...WITH THREATS INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON ALONG/NORTH OF THE OH RVR. VERY MOIST AIR MASS HAS ADVECTED NWD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE MID-UPPER 70S. H85 ANALYSIS DEPICTS A CLOSED CIRCULATION VCNTY SRN MO WITH A SPEED MAX LIFTING NWD ACROSS THE LOWER OH VLY. THOUGH LIGHT WINDS WERE OBSERVED AT THE SURFACE...THE VEERING AND INCREASING WIND FLOW IN THE LOWER GATES NOTED ON PADUCAH VWP SUGGEST NEARLY 25 KTS OF 0-1KM SHEAR. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN FORMING RAPIDLY IN UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT OVER WRN TN AND THESE SHOULD INCREASE AS THEY MOVE NEWD TOWARD WRN KY AND SRN IND. GIVEN LOW LCL ENVIRONMENT AND MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE LOW LEVEL SHEAR...ISOLD BRIEF TORNADOES MAY OCCUR. NEW ETA SUGGESTS THAT THE H85 SPEED MAX LIFTS RAPIDLY NEWD INTO OH LATE THIS MORNING...THEN A NEW JETLET...NOW LOCATED OVER THE LOWER MS VLY...WILL TRANSLATE NEWD INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MAY ENHANCE THE TORNADO THREAT ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER OH VLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...NAMELY SRN IND INTO SWRN OH. AS SUCH...PARTS OF THE REGION MAY BE UPGRADED TO A CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK ON THE 1630 UTC DAY 1 UPDATE. ..RACY.. 06/16/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...MEG... 35228941 37868824 38938707 39318581 38798490 37668566 35098736 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 16 15:10:10 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 16 Jun 2004 10:10:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406161509.i5GF9u223399@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 161509 SWOMCD SPC MCD 161508 KSZ000-COZ000-161645- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1299 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1008 AM CDT WED JUN 16 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO...SWRN KS CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE VALID 161508Z - 161645Z PARTS OF SERN CO AND SWRN KS WILL BE UPGRADED TO A CATEGORICAL MODERATE RISK BASED ON A 15% TORNADO PROBABILITY. FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT WWD ACROSS THE SRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WITH LOWER 60S DEW POINTS AS FAR WEST AS LA JUNTA AND MID 50S AT PUEBLO. THOUGH THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENT IS CAPPED...TSTMS SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY THE PALMER DIVIDE AREA BY MID-AFTERNOON. AS THE PLAINS BOUNDARY LAYER HEATS...CINH WILL ERODE AND TSTMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG BOUNDARIES LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. 12Z H5 ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EJECTING NEWD AND UPSTREAM PROFILERS INDICATE WSWLY H5 WINDS TO 35 KTS. GIVEN SELY FLOW BENEATH THE WSWLY FLOW ALOFT...SUFFICIENT SHEAR WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE THREATS. ..RACY.. 06/16/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU... 37040128 37140281 37820429 38610438 38860378 38730254 37710122 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 16 15:28:26 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 16 Jun 2004 10:28:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406161528.i5GFSD205300@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 161525 SWOMCD SPC MCD 161524 MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-161700- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1300 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1024 AM CDT WED JUN 16 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER MS VLY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 161524Z - 161700Z ISOLD TORNADO/WIND THREATS ARE INCREASING ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VLY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS NEXT MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX EJECTING NWD ALONG ERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPSTREAM TROUGH AXIS. WIDESPREAD TSTMS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE SABINE RVR VLY AREA. JUST TO THE EAST ACROSS THE LOWER MS VLY...VSBL IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY AND WILL ALLOW FOR RAPID DESTABILIZATION OF THE NEAR TROPICAL AIR MASS. IN FACT...SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE AND ERN PART OF THE UPSTREAM MCS IS INTENSIFYING OVER CNTRL LA. MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A CORRIDOR OF BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW ROUGHLY FROM BATON ROUGE TO ALEXANDRIA AND FORT POLK VWP SHOWS AROUND 23 KTS OF 0-1KM SHEAR. GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR WITHIN LOW LCL ENVIRONMENT...ISOLD TORNADOES/WINDS WILL BE THREATS AND MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UPGRADED TO A SLIGHT RISK ON THE 1630Z DAY 1 UPDATE. THE TORNADO/WIND THREATS WILL TRANSLATE NEWD WITH TIME INTO PARTS OF CNTRL/SWRN MS. ..RACY.. 06/16/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV... 30369293 31349245 32879215 33509092 33568918 32508908 30968971 30019054 30029123  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 16 16:11:37 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 16 Jun 2004 11:11:37 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406161611.i5GGBP200957@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 161610 SWOMCD SPC MCD 161610 WIZ000-IAZ000-161815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1301 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1110 AM CDT WED JUN 16 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 161610Z - 161815Z TSTM CLUSTERS HAVE RECENTLY INTENSIFIED ACROSS NWRN IA AND WILL LIKELY EXPAND ENEWD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LARGE HAIL... DAMAGING WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED. A WW MAY BE REQUIRED. SURFACE MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS A COMPACT LOW BETWEEN SIOUX CITY AND OMAHA WITH A TRAILING SURFACE TROUGH SWD ALONG THE MO RVR AND AN E-W BOUNDARY INTO SWRN WI. SURFACE LOW APPEARS TO BE DEEPENING GIVEN RECENT STRENGTHENING AGEOSTROPHIC FLOW ACROSS NWRN IA. ENHANCED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE HAS AIDED IN RAPIDLY DEVELOPING TSTM CLUSTER OVER NWRN IA WHERE MUCAPE VALUES WERE 1000-2000 J/KG. CURRENTLY... THESE TSTMS APPEAR TO BE MAINLY ELEVATED. VSBL SATELLITE SUGGESTS DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS WILL DESTABILIZE WITH THINNING HIGH CLOUD CANOPY THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AS THE E-W BOUNDARY BECOMES STRONGER INTO NCNTRL/NERN IA WITHIN THE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT/WEAKENING CINH...TSTMS SHOULD EXPAND EWD INTO THESE REGIONS. OTHER TSTMS ARE APT TO DEVELOP SWD ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH TOWARD THE DES MOINES AREA. REGION RESIDES ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF STRONG H5 FLOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ONLY MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. BUT... STRONG-SEVERE MULTICELLS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS. GIVEN HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE LOW...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED. HEAVIEST CORRIDOR OF RAIN SHOULD OCCUR IN A 70 MILE WIDE AXIS EXTENDING FROM 50 WSW FORT DODGE TO 35 SW WATERLOO TO 25 NW OF DUBUQUE. ..RACY.. 06/16/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...DMX...FSD...OAX... 40669485 41429523 42219555 42899563 43149478 43319425 43379370 43459295 43429233 43449165 43339139 42889116 42499086 41609102 40919161 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 16 17:41:27 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 16 Jun 2004 12:41:27 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406161741.i5GHfD231079@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 161740 SWOMCD SPC MCD 161740 MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-161915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1302 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1240 PM CDT WED JUN 16 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS AND WRN MO CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 161740Z - 161915Z TSTMS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS ERN KS AND WRN MO MAY POSE A MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL THREATS. WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED GIVEN ISOLD SEVERE RISKS. VSBL SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS TSTMS BEGINNING TO INTENSIFY ACROSS NERN KS VCNTY TOPEKA. CAP IS ERODING QUICKLY OWING TO BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AND WEAK CONVERGENCE. MLCAPES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE 2000-2500 J/KG RANGE WITH THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY AXIS SITUATED THROUGH THE KANSAS CITY AREA. REGIONAL PROFILERS/VWPS SUGGEST THAT THE TROPOSPHERIC FLOW IS GENERALLY BELOW 20 KTS THROUGH 7KM. THUS...TSTMS WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME REMAINING ORGANIZED FOR ANY LENGTH OF TIME. STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...HOWEVER...MAY AUGMENT UPDRAFTS ACCELERATION AND TSTMS MAY PULSE TO SEVERE LEVELS PRODUCING MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. MAIN THREAT APPEARS TO BE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AS STORMS MOVE SLOWLY AND BECOME EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS. ..RACY.. 06/16/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT... 38619764 39659628 40489536 40529367 39749305 38279350 37509513 37529733 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 16 18:14:44 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 16 Jun 2004 13:14:44 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406161814.i5GIEV222963@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 161812 SWOMCD SPC MCD 161812 OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-NEZ000-162045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1303 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0112 PM CDT WED JUN 16 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO...EXTREME NERN NM...WRN KS AND THE WRN OK PNHDL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 161812Z - 162045Z TSTMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP/INCREASE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF NERN NM AND CNTRL CO THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH OTHERS DEVELOPING ONTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS AROUND 22Z. A TORNADO THREAT WILL INCREASE OVER SERN CO...NERN NM...EXTREME SWRN KS AND WRN OK PNHDL AND A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED. FARTHER NORTH...ISOLD LARGE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY TSTMS...BUT A WW WILL LIKELY NOT BE REQUIRED. DEEPER SURGE OF COLDER AIR HAS STALLED JUST SOUTH OF BURLINGTON- NEAR COLORADO SPRINGS THEN NWD ALONG THE DIVIDE. A SECONDARY BOUNDARY /OUTFLOW/ WAS ARCING JUST S OF PUEBLO-LA JUNTA-LAMAR EWD TO MIDWAY BETWEEN DODGE CITY AND LIBERAL. VSBL SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT THE SC IS GRADUALLY ERODING BETWEEN THESE TWO BOUNDARIES. MID 60S DEW POINTS ARE COMMON WWD TO LA JUNTA WITH MID 50S BACK TO THE MOUNTAINS BENEATH VERY STEEP MID TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE... CINH WILL BEGIN TO ERODE AND MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG WILL BE REALIZED ACROSS SERN CO. TSTMS SHOULD INITIATE FIRST OVER THE MOUNTAINS...BUT COULD DEVELOP/SPREAD EWD ONTO THE PLAINS QUICKLY BETWEEN 20-22Z. UPSTREAM AZTEC PROFILER SHOWS NEAR 40 KTS OF FLOW ABOVE 4KM AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN STRONGLY VEERED LOW LEVEL PROFILE WITHIN MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...ESPECIALLY ALONG/NORTH OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO SPREAD ESEWD THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO ADJACENT PARTS OF SWRN KS...NERN NM AND THE WRN OK PNHDL. FARTHER NORTH...TSTMS FORMING OVER THE NCNTRL CO ROCKIES WILL LIKELY SPREAD ENEWD ABOVE THE DEEPER COLD DOME FROM DENVER EAST. SUFFICIENT MUCAPE SHOULD EXIST FOR ISOLD TSTMS TO PRODUCE SEVERE HAILSTONES. ..RACY.. 06/16/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ... 36580141 36410397 37520468 38660468 38630370 38550210 37800128 39530550 40400569 40910548 40900428 40320212 39360135 38930178 38660258 38780477 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 16 18:39:19 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 16 Jun 2004 13:39:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406161839.i5GId5208553@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 161838 SWOMCD SPC MCD 161837 COZ000-UTZ000-162100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1304 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0137 PM CDT WED JUN 16 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN UT AND WRN CO CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 161837Z - 162100Z GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR SEVERE LEVELS MAY ACCOMPANY TSTMS ACROSS ERN UT AND WRN CO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WW WILL NOT BE NEEDED. WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE MAIN UPPER TIS...FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN. VLYS HAVE HEATED CONSIDERABLY WITH TEMPERATURES RISING THROUGH THE MID-UPPER 80S. RESULTANT DEW POING THE HIGHER TERRAIN. VLYS HAVE HEATED CONSIDERABLY WITH TEMPERATURES RISING THROUGH THE MID-UPPER 80S. RESULTANT DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS OF 45-55 DEGREES ARE CONTRIBUTING TO HIGH DCAPE VALUES. AS A RESULT...AS THE TSTMS MOVE INTO THE VLYS OF ERN UT/WRN CO...GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR SEVERE LEVELS MAY OCCUR. A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY ALSO CONTAIN SMALL HAIL. ..RACY.. 06/16/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GJT...SLC... 37781164 38871106 39311096 39410967 39500873 38680809 37400867 37431042 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 16 19:08:51 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 16 Jun 2004 14:08:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406161908.i5GJ8b228216@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 161905 SWOMCD SPC MCD 161905 TXZ000-NMZ000-162130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1305 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0205 PM CDT WED JUN 16 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM...WRN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 161905Z - 162130Z TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN NM/SWRN TX AND ALONG THE DRYLINE ACROSS ERN NM. TSTMS MAY CONTAIN SEVERE WINDS AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAILSTONES. TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED RAPIDLY OVER THE SWRN TX/SERN NM MOUNTAINS. OTHER TSTMS WILL POSSIBLY DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE IN SAN MIGUEL...GUADALUPE...WRN QUAY AND DE BACA COUNTIES IN NM BY 22Z. SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS ADVECTED UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S DEW POINTS WWD TO THE MOUNTAINS AND GIVEN STRONG HEATING...MLCAPES WERE 2000-2500 J/KG ON THE HIGH PLAINS. A CAP STILL REMAINS ON THE PLAINS...BUT CONTINUED HEATING WILL ERODE CINH SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT TSTMS ALONG ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT EMANATE FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN STORMS. TROPOSPHERIC FLOW IS WEAK AND TSTMS WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME STAYING ORGANIZED FOR ANY LENGTH OF TIME. HOWEVER...GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS OF 30-35 DEGREES...SEVERE WINDS MAY OCCUR AS THE STORMS COLLAPSE. STRONGER UPDRAFTS MAY CONTAIN SMALL HAIL AS WELL. ACTIVITY MAY MOVE EWD WITH TIME INTO THE WRN TX PNHDL...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 62 /HOBBS NM-SEMINOLE TX/. ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH A COUPLE HOURS AFTER DARK. ..RACY.. 06/16/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...EPZ... 29550435 31700451 32650532 33840541 35460482 35930290 35500245 33880271 31920267 29910253 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 16 19:44:11 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 16 Jun 2004 14:44:11 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406161943.i5GJhv220205@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 161943 SWOMCD SPC MCD 161942 FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-162215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1306 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0242 PM CDT WED JUN 16 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...MS...AL...SWRN TN...SERN LA...WRN FL PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 161942Z - 162215Z ISOLATED SEVERE DOWNBURSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WW NOT ANTICIPATED. MLCAPES NOW EXCEEDING 2000 J/KG WITHIN VERY MOIST AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY MID 70S F DEWPOINTS. UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO WEST IS HELPING TO PRODUCE 20-30 KT UNIDIRECTIONAL SLY FLOW ABOVE 850 MB...WHICH IS CAUSING STORMS TO MOVE NWD WITH SPEEDS OF 20-30 KTS. CONTINUED HEATING / DESTABILIZATION ALONG WITH GRADUAL INCREASE IN STORM DEPTH / INTENSITIES WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SVR DOWNBURSTS. POOR MID AND UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL MINIMIZE HAIL THREAT WITH ONLY VERY SMALL HAIL EXPECTED. ..JEWELL.. 06/16/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TAE...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN...LIX...LCH... 30288493 30208582 30418704 30258791 30678802 30258821 30348878 30208934 30258966 30018977 29889057 30119175 31029153 31989120 33709093 35169026 35578838 35438670 34238551 31018500 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 16 21:01:47 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 16 Jun 2004 16:01:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406162101.i5GL1Y211203@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 162100 SWOMCD SPC MCD 162059 OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-162300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1307 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0359 PM CDT WED JUN 16 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...E CENTRAL IL...CENTRAL IN...SWRN OH...NRN KY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 162059Z - 162300Z ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z. ANY TORNADOES THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE BRIEF. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS RETREATING WARM FRONT FROM JUST N OF STL EWD TO NEAR IND AND DAY. MODERATE INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS FRONT WITH MLCAPES AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG. FORCING CURRENTLY WEAK UNDER WRN EDGE OF UPPER RIDGE...HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL LIKELY CAUSE A FEW SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP. HIGHEST THREAT AREA WILL BE WITHIN THETA-E AXIS WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S F...AND WHERE THIS AXIS CROSSES THE WARM FRONT...OVER E CENTRAL IL AND CENTRAL IN. AREA VWPS INDICATE MARGINAL LOW LEVEL SHEAR ALONG WARM FRONT WITH 0-1 SRH GENERALLY 50-80 M2/S2. THIS...IN COMBINATION WITH 0-3 KM CAPE VALUES UP TO 100 J/KG MAY ALLOW A FEW STORMS TO BRIEFLY PRODUCE A TORNADO. ..JEWELL.. 06/16/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RLX...CLE...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX... 38628640 38778892 39218861 40008837 40538803 40548526 40438298 39248254 38658276 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 16 22:02:35 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 16 Jun 2004 17:02:35 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406162202.i5GM2R219878@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 162201 SWOMCD SPC MCD 162201 WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-MOZ000-162330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1308 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0501 PM CDT WED JUN 16 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL-ERN IA INTO SRN WI/NRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 483... VALID 162201Z - 162330Z HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREATS ACROSS CENTRAL- ERN IA INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE ACROSS SRN WI AND NWRN IL. LATE AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSES/REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS SHOW A WELL DEFINED MCV AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVING SLOWLY ENEWD ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL-NERN IA ATTM. A WARM FRONT EXTENDED ESE FROM THIS SURFACE LOW TO ALONG THE WI/IL BORDER...WITH A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NEWD FROM SWRN TO NERN WI. AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADS EWD AHEAD OF THE MCV AND COMBINES WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH AND GUST FRONT OVER ERN IA...AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE EWD EXTENDING BOUNDARIES... TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE. THE GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL THROUGH 00Z IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS NERN-EAST CENTRAL IA...WHERE ENHANCED UVVS AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH THE MCV WILL INTERACT WITH THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. FARTHER EAST ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN WI AND NRN IL...WEAKER DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. ..PETERS.. 06/16/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...EAX... 40579435 42049299 42989311 43629331 43889242 44379064 43408917 42658876 41688903 40849059 40589099 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 16 23:44:06 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 16 Jun 2004 18:44:06 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406162343.i5GNhs218767@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 162342 SWOMCD SPC MCD 162342 KSZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-170045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1309 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0642 PM CDT WED JUN 16 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN CO INTO WRN KS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 482... VALID 162342Z - 170045Z BOW ECHO LOCATED ALONG THE SERN CO/SWRN KS BORDER AT 2330Z PER REGIONAL RADARS WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A DAMAGING WIND THREAT AND ISOLATED TORNADOES INTO SWRN KS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SURFACE FRONT EXTENDED EWD FROM THE NRN PORTION OF THIS BOW TO BETWEEN GCK/DDC TO HUT...WITH A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR FAVORING A CONTINUATION OF THE FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS/BOW ECHO. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES PER 00Z DDC RAOB AND 30-35 SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WILL FURTHER ENHANCE THE DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL INTO SWRN KS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ISENTROPIC ASCENT ATOP THE COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER LOCATED ACROSS EAST CENTRAL INTO NERN CO AND NWRN KS SHOULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND SHEAR VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR ISOLATED HAIL WITH THIS ACTIVITY INTO THE EARLY EVENING...BUT A WATCH TO THE NORTH OF WW 482 IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ..PETERS.. 06/16/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU... 37020045 36960282 37390262 37890290 38730398 39110397 39980388 39900284 39470170 38750040 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 16 23:52:48 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 16 Jun 2004 18:52:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406162352.i5GNqZ223280@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 162351 SWOMCD SPC MCD 162351 TXZ000-NMZ000-170215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1310 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0651 PM CDT WED JUN 16 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NM...W AND SW TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 162351Z - 170215Z SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW OF THEM SEVERE WITH HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. STORMS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE IN WEAK MID / UPPER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. 00Z AMA AND MAF SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRY SUB CLOUD LAYERS FAVORABLE FOR EVAPORATION AND COLD POOL PRODUCTION. STEEP LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 8.8 C/KM INDICATE THREAT FOR SOME SEVERE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS. HIGHEST THREAT WILL BE WITH ANY CELLS THAT CAN PROPAGATE SWWD...MAXIMIZING SRH. INCREASING SELY LOW LEVEL JET WILL MAINTAIN MOIST INFLOW...THUS NEW CELL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE MOST LIKELY S AND E OF CURRENT CONVECTION ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. ..JEWELL.. 06/16/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ... 34750434 34750205 32280211 31060176 30000221 30000323 30480418 32430436 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 17 02:37:24 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 16 Jun 2004 21:37:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406170237.i5H2bC212921@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 170233 SWOMCD SPC MCD 170233 KSZ000-OKZ000-170330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1311 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0933 PM CDT WED JUN 16 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 486... VALID 170233Z - 170330Z DAMAGING WIND THREAT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH 04Z ACROSS SWRN KS WITH EWD MOVING BOW ECHO. IF THIS BOW SUSTAINS ITS INTENSITY AND CURRENT 35-40 KT EWD MOVEMENT...THEN A NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED TO THE E/ENE OF WW 486 BY 04Z. 02Z SURFACE ANALYSIS/REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED A SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM 10 SE DDC-20 NW ICT-EMP. AIR MASS ALONG AND EITHER SIDE OF THIS BOUNDARY IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND A WELL ESTABLISHED COLD POOL OVER SWRN KS/OK PANHANDLE IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT A CONTINUED EWD MOVEMENT OF THE BOW ECHO WITH DAMAGING WINDS. ..PETERS.. 06/17/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA... 37030031 37750006 38710065 38919882 38909760 38159759 37009783 36849901  From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 17 03:32:33 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 16 Jun 2004 22:32:33 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406170332.i5H3WO211201@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 170331 SWOMCD SPC MCD 170331 TXZ000-170430- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1312 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1031 PM CDT WED JUN 16 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK PANHANDLE SWD ACROSS TX PANHANDLE AND WEST CENTRAL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 485... VALID 170331Z - 170430Z DAMAGING WIND THREAT EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER ACROSS THE NRN TX PANHANDLE DURING THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS...WITH AN ISOLATED HAIL/HEAVY RAIN THREAT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SRN TX PANHANDLE AND THE SOUTH PLAINS OF WEST TX. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED AN ORGANIZED BOW ECHO OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE AT 03Z MOVING TO THE ESE AT 30-35 KT. THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WITH THIS BOW IS INTERSECTING A SECOND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO THE NNE OF AMA ATTM. OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SUGGEST THIS BOW ECHO SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE ESEWD INTO THE ERN TX PANHANDLE THROUGH 05Z ALONG AN INSTABILITY GRADIENT...RESULTING IN A CONTINUED DAMAGING WIND THREAT. HOWEVER...WEAKER INSTABILITY/STRONGER INHIBITION ACROSS WRN OK WOULD SUGGEST THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DECREASE AS THE BOW APPROACHES THE TX/WRN OK BORDER BY AROUND 05Z. SMALL AREAL COVERAGE OF DAMAGING WIND THREAT ACROSS THE ERN TX PANHANDLE WILL PRECLUDE THE ISSUANCE OF AN ADDITIONAL WW. 30 KT SLY LLJ WILL PROVIDE MOIST/MODERATELY UNSTABLE INFLOW TO THE ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER WEST CENTRAL TX AND THE BOW ECHO OVER THE TX PANHANDLE TO MAINTAIN THIS ACTIVITY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ISOLATED HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THE ELEVATED ACTIVITY OVER THE SRN TX PANHANDLE AND THE SOUTH PLAINS OF WEST TX. ..PETERS.. 06/17/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA... 33040232 34150235 35220196 36070185 36410098 36430011 35660001 34650026 34090140 33050182 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 17 19:35:44 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 17 Jun 2004 14:35:44 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406171936.i5HJaW215355@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 171935 SWOMCD SPC MCD 171934 OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-172130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1315 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0234 PM CDT THU JUN 17 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...OH VALLEY AND SRN GREAT LAKES CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 171934Z - 172130Z STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL ACROSS SRN IL...IND...NW OH AND SRN LOWER MI. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SFC TROUGH JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS SRN IL INTO NRN IND AND SRN LOWER MI. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND SFC HEATING IS HELPING STORMS TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE ALONG THE WEST EDGE OF INSTABILITY WHERE MLCAPE VALUES CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 1250 TO 1750 J/KG. THE WIND PROFILER IN NW IND ONLY SHOWS ABOUT 20 KT AT 500 MB WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH GIVEN THE INSTABILITY FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS. LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE CURRENTLY GREATER THAN 7.0 C/KM ACROSS WRN IND AND SRN IL...WHICH MAY BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS. ..BROYLES.. 06/17/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...LMK...IWX...GRR...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX... 37598963 39028875 41818498 42298346 41448229 38818546 37218831 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 17 20:07:19 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 17 Jun 2004 15:07:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406172008.i5HK86202310@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 172002 SWOMCD SPC MCD 172001 TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-172130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1316 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0301 PM CDT THU JUN 17 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM...TX PANHANDLE...WRN OK PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 172001Z - 172130Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. A WW WILL BE ISSUED BY 21Z. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY / WARM FRONT FROM NERN NM SEWD TO NEAR AMA AND JUST N OF CDS. AIR MASS ALONG AND S OF THIS BOUNDARY HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 2000-3500 J/KG. MODIFIED 18Z AMARILLO SOUNDINGS SHOWS AREA IS UNCAPPED. MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING THROUGH NM...AS EVIDENT ON TUCUMCARI PROFILER WITH BACKING WINDS ALOFT. THIS FEATURE WILL HELP STRENGTHEN SHEAR PROFILES WITH SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND LARGE INSTABILITY WILL FAVOR VERY LARGE HAIL., INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH LOCALLY LOWER LCL HEIGHTS AND ENHANCED 0-1 SRH NEAR OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. ..JEWELL.. 06/17/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ... 33910407 35310458 36410502 36990456 36960185 35840009 34340006  From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 17 20:08:23 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 17 Jun 2004 15:08:23 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406172009.i5HK9A202877@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 172003 SWOMCD SPC MCD 172003 COR TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-172130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1316 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0303 PM CDT THU JUN 17 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM...TX PANHANDLE...WRN OK PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 172003Z - 172130Z CORRECTED FOR WORDING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. A WW WILL BE ISSUED BY 21Z. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY / WARM FRONT FROM NERN NM SEWD TO NEAR AMA AND JUST N OF CDS. AIR MASS ALONG AND S OF THIS BOUNDARY HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 2000-3500 J/KG. MODIFIED 18Z AMARILLO SOUNDING SHOWS AREA IS UNCAPPED. MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING THROUGH NM...AS EVIDENT ON TUCUMCARI PROFILER WITH BACKING WINDS ALOFT...WILL HELP STRENGTHEN SHEAR PROFILES WITH SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND LARGE INSTABILITY WILL FAVOR VERY LARGE HAIL. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH LOCALLY LOWER LCL HEIGHTS AND ENHANCED 0-1 SRH NEAR OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. ..JEWELL.. 06/17/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ... 33910407 35310458 36410502 36990456 36960185 35840009 34340006  From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 17 20:25:38 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 17 Jun 2004 15:25:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406172026.i5HKQe214331@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 172023 SWOMCD SPC MCD 172022 NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-172145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1317 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0322 PM CDT THU JUN 17 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PA/MD/NJ/DE/SRN NY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 487...488... VALID 172022Z - 172145Z A WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS LATE THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE CNTRL PARTS OF WW 487 AND 488. THE ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO FEED OFF OF THE STRONG INSTABILITY HELPING THE STORMS TO REMAIN NEAR SEVERE LEVELS AS THEY MOVE EWD ACROSS MD AND SRN PA TOWARD THE COASTAL AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A 40 KT MID-LEVEL JET LOCATED ACROSS CNTRL PA IS ENHANCING SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION WITH A FEW SMALL SUPERCELL STORMS ONGOING ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS IN MD. THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WARM TEMPS ALOFT WILL KEEP THE LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL LOW. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE WIND DAMAGE CONSIDERING THE SHEAR AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES THAT EXIST ACROSS SRN PA ACROSS MD INTO NJ AND DE. ..BROYLES.. 06/17/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...PBZ... 38917487 38707579 39027753 39737906 40127944 40917925 41607803 41777686 41367410 39847396  From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 17 21:24:28 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 17 Jun 2004 16:24:28 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406172128.i5HLSF219132@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 172124 SWOMCD SPC MCD 172124 TXZ000-NMZ000-172330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1318 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0424 PM CDT THU JUN 17 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SW TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 172124Z - 172330Z ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WW NOT ANTICIPATED. STORMS FORMING ON HIGH TERRAIN IN SW TX WHERE IT HAS BECOME VERY WARM WHILE MAINTAINING 50S F DEWPOINTS IN WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. LARGE INSTABILITY EXISTS AND MAY INCREASE AS MOIST SELY FLOW AND LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHEN. MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS WEAK...THUS HODOGRAPHS FAVOR VERY SLOW MOVING SEVERE PULSE OR MULTICELLS. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SEVERE HAIL...WHILE LOW RH SUB CLOUD LAYERS AND WEAK WIND SHEAR WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SEVERE MICROBURSTS. ..JEWELL.. 06/17/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF...EPZ... 30410491 30620498 30910540 31480554 31960438 32460386 32390293 32000215 31350172 29840239 29680270 28960312 29120352 29430414 29670453 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 17 21:59:16 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 17 Jun 2004 16:59:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406172200.i5HM02205909@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 172159 SWOMCD SPC MCD 172158 WVZ000-OHZ000-172230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1319 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0458 PM CDT THU JUN 17 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF CENTRAL/NRN OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 172158Z - 172230Z WW MAY BE REQUIRED FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL/NRN OH WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS. 21Z SURFACE ANALYSIS/VIS IMAGERY SHOWED TWO TO THREE E-W ORIENTED CONFLUENCE BOUNDARIES FROM NERN OH TO CENTRAL/SERN OH...AND A COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD ACROSS SRN LOWER MI TO NRN IND. AIR MASS EAST OF THE COLD FRONT AND ALONG THE E-W BOUNDARIES IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE. CONVERGENCE ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS ERN IND TO CENTRAL/NRN OH INTO THE EARLY EVENING. STRONGER FLOW ALOFT FROM CENTRAL OH INTO PA WILL SUPPORT A SEVERE THREAT WITH STORMS THAT MOVE EWD ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN PORTIONS OF OH...WITH DEEP UNI-DIRECTIONAL FLOW FAVORING MAINLY LINE SEGMENTS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. ..PETERS.. 06/17/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...IWX... 40898419 41628345 41868053 40458064 39648101 39348296 39658475 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 17 22:31:19 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 17 Jun 2004 17:31:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406172232.i5HMW5223317@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 172231 SWOMCD SPC MCD 172231 ARZ000-MOZ000-180030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1320 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0531 PM CDT THU JUN 17 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN MO...NWRN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 489... VALID 172231Z - 180030Z SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO HAVE DECREASED AT THIS TIME AS STORMS HAVE WEAKENED FROM PREVIOUS MARGINALLY SEVERE STATUS. MAIN THREAT CONTINUES TO BE ISOLATED WIND GUSTS. CLUSTER OF PULSE / MULTICELLULAR STORMS CONTINUE WITH CELL REGENERATION ALONG OUTFLOW. STORMS OVER SERN KS AND NWRN AR HAVE RELATIVELY STRONGER THETA-E INFLUX WITH 10-15 KT SFC TO 850 MB SWLY FLOW. THEREFORE...THESE STORMS MAY PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. ..JEWELL.. 06/17/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA... 36559448 38149458 38059189 35469158 35469441 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 17 23:38:17 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 17 Jun 2004 18:38:17 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406172339.i5HNd3224279@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 172337 SWOMCD SPC MCD 172337 NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-180030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1321 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0637 PM CDT THU JUN 17 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN PA/NJ/DE/MD/PORTIONS OF NRN-ERN VA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 488... VALID 172337Z - 180030Z DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH STORMS MOVING EWD ACROSS THE VALID PORTIONS OF WW 488. VAD WINDS FROM PA/NJ SWD ACROSS MD INDICATE 40-50 KT OF WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT. DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ONGOING STORMS AND ANY NEW STORMS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS THIS REGION IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DEEP UNI-DIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW FROM JUST OFF THE SURFACE WILL FAVOR LINE SEGMENTS...WITH REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING A SMALL BOW ECHO MOVING ESE AT 40 KT INTO CENTRAL NJ POSING THE GREATEST WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL ATTM. A GREATER THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SRN PORTIONS OF WW 488 FROM MD/ERN VA AND EWD TO THE COAST DURING THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS AS THIS REGION REMAINS CLOSER TO STRONGER INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 2000-3000 J/KG/. A CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MOVING ESEWD INTO THE ERN WV PANHANDLE WILL POSE A SEVERE THREAT ACROSS SWRN PORTION OF WW 488...IF THEY CAN MAINTAIN THEIR INTENSITY AS THEY MOVE INTO FAR NRN VA BETWEEN 00-01Z. ..PETERS.. 06/17/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX... 41047557 40787356 39727278 37077736 39167882 40507646 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 18 00:39:09 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 17 Jun 2004 19:39:09 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406180039.i5I0dt222538@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 180038 SWOMCD SPC MCD 180038 OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-180245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1322 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0738 PM CDT THU JUN 17 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO...TX PANHANDLE...NERN NM...SWRN KS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 490...491... VALID 180038Z - 180245Z LATEST RADARS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SEVERAL LARGE SUPERCELLS FROM SERN CO INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. ISOLATED TORNADOES REMAIN POSSIBLE...BUT DAMAGING WINDS WILL INCREASINGLY BECOME THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS STORMS OVER SERN CO AS WELL AS THE NRN TX PANHANDLE ARE ALONG WARM FRONT. SURFACE WINDS ARE BACKED IN THESE AREAS WITH 0-1 SRH OF 150-250 M2/S2. 00Z AMA AND DDC RAOBS INDICATE TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S ARE NECESSARY FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION WITH MINIMAL CIN. THEREFORE...GIVEN COOLER AIR OVER SWRN KS...STORMS THAT DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO THIS AREA WILL LIKELY BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ABOVE A MORE STABLE SURFACE LAYER. HOWEVER...SURFACE AIR REMAINS UNSTABLE. STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH WELL ESTABLISHED CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS WILL LIKELY BE INGESTING A MIXTURE OF ELEVATED AND SURFACE BASED AIR. SUPERCELLS MAY EVOLVE INTO DAMAGING BOWS AS THEY CONTINUE EWD...WITH LARGE HAIL LIKELY AS WELL GIVEN STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 8.0 C/KM AND MODERATE INSTABILITY. ..JEWELL.. 06/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...SJT...GLD...LUB...AMA...MAF...PUB...BOU...ABQ... 32880022 32900487 39210501 39169991 36939997 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 18 01:16:30 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 17 Jun 2004 20:16:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406180117.i5I1HG209513@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 180116 SWOMCD SPC MCD 180115 KSZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-180145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1323 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0815 PM CDT THU JUN 17 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN KS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 490... VALID 180115Z - 180145Z NEW WW WILL BE ISSUED SOON ACROSS SWRN KS TO REPLACE WW 490. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW A WELL DEFINED BOW ECHO OVER THE SERN CO COUNTIES OF PROWERS AND BACA...MOVING TO THE EAST AT 35 KT. THIS BOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EWD ALONG AN INSTABILITY GRADIENT/ SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING ESEWD ACROSS SWRN-SOUTH CENTRAL KS. GIVEN MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR...THIS BOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG TO SEVERE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ISOLATED STORMS TO THE NNW OF THE BOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS...AS THE BOW BECOMES THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT. ..PETERS.. 06/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ICT...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB... 38950277 39030080 38469917 37599851 37039876 36930283 37590221 38140256 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 18 02:19:21 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 17 Jun 2004 21:19:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406180220.i5I2KA206751@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 180219 SWOMCD SPC MCD 180219 OKZ000-TXZ000-180245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1324 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0919 PM CDT THU JUN 17 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN OK INCLUDING OK PANHANDLE/ERN TX PANHANDLE CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 491... VALID 180219Z - 180245Z NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED SOON FOR PORTIONS OF THE ERN TX PANHANDLE AND WRN OK INCLUDING THE OK PANHANDLE. LARGE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MERGE ACROSS THE OK/TX PANHANDLES INTO NWRN TX/LOW ROLLING HILLS OF WEST CENTRAL TX...WITH A GRADUAL EWD MOVEMENT OF THE ENTIRE MCS. AMA RADAR CURRENTLY SHOWS A DEVELOPING BOW ECHO ACROSS ROBERTS COUNTY TX...WITH LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS/OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATING A STRONG COLD POOL WITH THIS BOW. MODERATE INSTABILITY DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE ERN TX PANHANDLE INTO WRN OK AND THE COLD POOL SHOULD MAINTAIN THE EWD MOVEMENT OF THIS BOW ECHO INTO WRN OK BY 03Z. 30 KT SSELY LLJ ACROSS WRN TX WILL MAINTAIN ONGOING MCS ACROSS THIS REGION WITH CAPE/SHEAR VALUES SUPPORTING ORGANIZED STORMS WITH HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. DEVELOPING COLD POOL OVER THE TX PANHANDLE WILL FURTHER ENHANCE DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL INTO WRN OK. ..PETERS.. 06/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA... 35860104 36880103 36979837 35389795 34149808 34119853 33710024 33710198 34910200 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 18 02:53:23 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 17 Jun 2004 21:53:23 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406180254.i5I2s8223026@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 180252 SWOMCD SPC MCD 180251 KSZ000-180345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1325 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0951 PM CDT THU JUN 17 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 492... VALID 180251Z - 180345Z DAMAGING WIND/HAIL THREAT TO CONTINUE ACROSS FAR SWRN KS FROM HASKELL/SEWARD COUNTIES ATTM EWD TO COMANCHE/KIOWA COUNTIES BY 04-05Z. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW A COMPACT BOW ECHO ACROSS FAR SWRN KS MOVING EWD AT 40-45 KT. 02Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A BOUNDARY EXTENDING EWD ALONG THE SRN TIER OF KS COUNTIES TO ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER...WITH A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ALONG/S OF THIS BOUNDARY. THIS DOWNSTREAM INSTABILITY AND ESTABLISHED COLD POOL IN WAKE OF BOW ECHO WILL SUPPORT DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS THIS BOW ECHO CONTINUES EWD DURING THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. ..PETERS.. 06/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ICT...DDC...GLD... 37000122 37650149 38250163 38990135 39119887 37059884 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 18 04:45:05 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 17 Jun 2004 23:45:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406180445.i5I4ju209773@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 180445 SWOMCD SPC MCD 180444 KSZ000-OKZ000-180615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1326 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1144 PM CDT THU JUN 17 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SRN KS AND WRN/NRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 492...493... VALID 180444Z - 180615Z ISOLATED HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN KS AND NRN OK. NEW WW WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN KS/NRN OK. 04Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A MESO-HIGH EXTENDING FROM SWRN KS INTO NWRN OK. A SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER NEAR WOODS COUNTY OK WHERE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM OK CONVECTION INTERSECTS A SYNOPTIC SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING E-W ALONG THE OK/KS BORDER. LOW-LEVEL WAA ASSOCIATED WITH A 30 KT LLJ NOSING INTO NORTH CENTRAL OK/SRN KS AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRACKING ENEWD INTO SWRN KS ATTM ARE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THE LARGE FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN KS AND NRN OK OVERNIGHT. DAMAGING WIND THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE GREATEST ACROSS NRN OK... WITH ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS FROM ALFALFA TO CUSTER COUNTIES MOVING EWD AT 30-35 KT. HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT NWD ACROSS KS... WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE STRONGER...SUPPORTING ELEVATED SUPERCELLS. ..PETERS.. 06/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC... 35509920 36599886 37089954 37740020 38310013 38959887 38809645 37099646 36239669 35529707 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 18 06:29:24 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 18 Jun 2004 01:29:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406180630.i5I6U9222630@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 180629 SWOMCD SPC MCD 180629 OKZ000-KSZ000-180800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1327 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0129 AM CDT FRI JUN 18 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL/SERN KS INTO N-CNTRL/NERN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 494... VALID 180629Z - 180800Z POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD E OF KS PORTION WW BY 0700Z. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AND AN ADDITIONAL WW MAY BE REQUIRED. AS OF 0611Z...RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED LEADING EDGE OF GUST FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH MCS FROM ERN PORTIONS OF HARVEY/SEDGWICK/SUMNER COUNTIES IN S-CNTRL KS SWWD INTO LOGAN AND GRADY COUNTIES OF CNTRL OK. WHILE THIS GUST FRONT HAS ADVANCED AHEAD OF OK PORTION OF MCS...IT REMAINS NEARLY COINCIDENT WITH HIGHER REFLECTIVITIES OVER S-CNTRL KS...SUGGESTING MORE OF AN UPRIGHT TILT TO LEADING EDGE OF SYSTEM. OVER THE PAST HOUR SEVERAL GUSTS IN THE 40-50MPH RANGE HAVE BE REPORTED IN OBSERVATIONS OVER GRANT/GARFIELD/KINGFISHER AND LOGAN COUNTIES IN OK AND AT THE WICHITA AIRPORT. 06Z MESOANALYSIS INDICATES QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY INTERSECTING MCS OVER FAR S-CNTRL KS AND THEN EXTENDING EWD ROUGHLY ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER. LATEST RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT STRONGEST STORMS ARE THOSE ALONG AND N OF THIS BOUNDARY WHERE OBJECTIVE FIELDS STILL INDICATE MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG. THOUGH LOCAL PROFILERS/VWPS SHOW RELATIVELY WEAK MID-LEVEL FLOW...EWD SYSTEM MOTION OF 35KTS AND WELL-ORGANIZED COLD POOL MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO PROMOTE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...IN ADDITION TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. EXTRAPOLATION PLACES LEADING EDGE OF SYSTEM /S-CNTRL KS PORTION/ E OF WW 494 BY 0700Z. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AND A NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED. ..MEAD.. 06/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC... 38669856 38629503 35509512 35629849 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 18 15:50:01 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 18 Jun 2004 10:50:01 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406181550.i5IFoj211976@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 181549 SWOMCD SPC MCD 181549 ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-181745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1328 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1049 AM CDT FRI JUN 18 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK...WRN AR AND FAR SW MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 181549Z - 181745Z A BACKBUILDING LINE OF STORMS ACROSS CNTRL OK MAY REINTENSIFY AS IT MOVES EWD SLOWLY. IN ADDITION...NEW STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS SERN OK...POSSIBLY REACHING SEVERE LIMITS THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY ACROSS SE OK WHERE MLCAPE VALUES ARE ALREADY 2500 TO 3000 J/KG WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE NORMAN 12Z SOUNDING. THIS STRONG INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS STRENGTHENING THE ONGOING CONVECTION AND HELPING TO INITIATE NEW STORMS. STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS SRN AND ERN OK AND COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. THE NORMAN 12Z SOUNDING SHOWS 30 TO 35 KT AT 500 MB AND PROFILERS INDICATE THAT THIS STRONGER FLOW EXTENDS WWD ACROSS SW OK. AS THIS STRONGER FLOW SPREADS INTO ERN OK TODAY...IT WILL CREATE STRONGER SHEAR WHICH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR MULTICELL SEVERE STORMS CONSIDERING THE MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY PRESENT. AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO STEEPEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THE WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS ERN OK. A CLUSTER SHOULD DEVELOP AND MOVE ESEWD INTO WRN AR BY LATE AFTERNOON. ..BROYLES.. 06/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... 34249772 33759684 34069455 34419260 35229294 36399392 36849455 36669535 35599647 34819726 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 18 16:21:54 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 18 Jun 2004 11:21:54 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406181622.i5IGMe201063@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 181622 SWOMCD SPC MCD 181621 SCZ000-GAZ000-NCZ000-181815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1329 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1121 AM CDT FRI JUN 18 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN GA...WRN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 181621Z - 181815Z DEVELOPING STORMS ACROSS NRN GA AND CNTRL AL WILL INTENSIFY AND MAY HAVE A WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON. IF A COLD POOL CAN ORGANIZE...A WW WILL BE CONSIDERED LATER THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THIS SCENARIO APPEARS UNLIKELY ATTM. INSTABILITY IS INCREASING THIS MORNING ACROSS NRN GA AND AL IN RESPONSE TO SFC HEATING WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG. THIS COMBINED WITH LIFT FROM A MINOR SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY IS RESULTING IN NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS MORNING. STORM COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS PVA FROM THE SHORTWAVE SPREADS EWD ACROSS NRN GA. VAD WIND PROFILES ACROSS NW GA SHOW ABOUT 20 KT OF FLOW IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS WITH SUBTLE BACKED FLOW AT THE MID-LEVELS. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL WITH ANY STORMS THAT PULSE UP. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS MID 70S F SFC DEWPOINTS ALONG WITH 0-2 KM LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.5 C/KM WHICH WILL FAVOR WET DOWNBURSTS. A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS AS A LARGER CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS SPREADS SLOWLY EWD INTO WRN SC BY LATE AFTERNOON. ..BROYLES.. 06/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...FFC... 33078187 32628254 32688431 33218469 34298406 35078307 34878107 34508071 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 18 17:17:28 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 18 Jun 2004 12:17:28 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406181718.i5IHIE206709@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 181717 SWOMCD SPC MCD 181717 NCZ000-SCZ000-181915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1331 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1217 PM CDT FRI JUN 18 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC...ERN SC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 181717Z - 181915Z SCATTERED STORM INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS CNTRL NC AND CNTRL SC. THE DEVELOPING STORMS WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NEAR HENDERSON NC SSWWD TO AUGUSTA GA. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH AND SFC HEATING HAS HELPED INITIATE ISOLATED CONVECTION SOUTH OF RALEIGH. OTHER STORMS SHOULD INITIATE ALONG THE TROUGH NORTH OF RALEIGH AND SOUTH NEAR CHARLESTON BY 19Z. VAD PROFILES ACROSS ERN NC SHOW UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR WITH ABOUT 15 KT OF FLOW IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS. THIS WILL BE MARGINAL FOR SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...STRONG INSTABILITY IS LOCATED ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STRONG UPDRAFTS. LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NEAR 8.0 C/KM WHICH COUPLED WITH MID TO UPPER 70S F SFC DEWPOINTS WILL FAVOR WIND DAMAGE AS THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS. ..BROYLES.. 06/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE... 35777567 35227558 35007614 34627651 34717679 34407762 33887801 33877860 33507912 33137926 32168087 32658125 33238137 34347991 35037908 35987769 36377662 36347592 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 18 17:58:36 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 18 Jun 2004 12:58:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406181759.i5IHxK232428@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 181758 SWOMCD SPC MCD 181758 VAZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-182000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1332 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1258 PM CDT FRI JUN 18 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...VA/ERN WV/MD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 181758Z - 182000Z ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AHEAD OF COLD FRONT FROM WRN PA INTO WRN WV. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES /8.0 C/KM IN 0-3 KM/ HAVE DEVELOPED -- ESPECIALLY ACROSS CNTRL/ERN VA -- OWING TO PLENTIFUL INSOLATION AND 80S/LOWER 90S SFC TEMPERATURES. COMBINED WITH LOWER 70F DEWPOINTS...LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS MEAN MIXED CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 2000-2500 J/KG AS OF 17Z. ALTHOUGH BACKGROUND WLY WINDS ARE MARGINAL -- MID LEVEL WINDS 25-30 KTS PER RUC DIAGNOSTICS AND AVAILABLE VWPS -- ISOLD WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH MOST VIGOROUS TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLD NATURE OF DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE NECESSITY FOR WW. LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL WILL BE MITIGATED BY HIGH FREEZING LEVELS/WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ..GUYER.. 06/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX... 39437676 38537653 37657660 36847680 36817776 36757975 37348126 38338083 39457937 39597844 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 18 18:21:42 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 18 Jun 2004 13:21:42 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406181822.i5IIMV214271@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 181820 SWOMCD SPC MCD 181820 ILZ000-MOZ000-182015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1333 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0120 PM CDT FRI JUN 18 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MO...IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 181820Z - 182015Z CONVECTION CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ACROSS ERN MO WILL SPREAD EWD AND POSE A HAIL OR WIND DAMAGE THREAT. A WW IS CURRENTLY BEING CONSIDERED FOR THE AREA. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT DRAPED FROM WRN IL SSWWD TO ECNTRL MO. STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG AND SE OF THE FRONT WILL HELP STORM INITIATION TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS SBCAPE OF 500 TO 1500 J/KG ACROSS CNTRL IL TO CNTRL MO. AS INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...STRONG UPDRAFTS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE EWD INTO WRN AND CNTRL IL. THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT IS GOOD FOR MULTICELL SEVERE STORMS WITH THE BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR CURRENTLY OVER NE MO. IF INSTABILITY INCREASES INTO THE MODERATE CATEGORY...A SUPERCELL THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST. THE HAIL WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO SUPERCELLS BUT WIND DAMAGE WILL BE THE GREATER THREAT CONSIDERING THE UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES AND STRONG SPEED SHEAR WITH HEIGHT. ..BROYLES.. 06/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...DVN...SGF... 40128835 38528877 36598988 36579011 36539120 36689233 37539220 39499141 40399079 40458953 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 18 19:29:25 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 18 Jun 2004 14:29:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406181930.i5IJU8222930@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 181928 SWOMCD SPC MCD 181928 TXZ000-NMZ000-182130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1334 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0228 PM CDT FRI JUN 18 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...TX PANHANDLE...W TX...NE NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 181928Z - 182130Z AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NE NM...THE TX PANHANDLE AND ON THE CAPROCK SOUTH OF AMARILLO. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY SUPERCELL STORMS THAT DEVELOP. A WW IS BEING CONSIDERED ATTM. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED ACROSS THE SRN TX PANHANDLE EXTENDING NWWD INTO NE NM. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY IN W TX...MLCAPE VALUES ARE CURRENTLY 2000-3000 J/KG. THE INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND THIS COUPLED WITH STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN RAPID STORM FORMATION ONCE INITIATION OCCURS. STORMS WILL MOST LIKELY INITIATE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND MOVE EWD ACROSS NE NM AND THE TX PANHANDLE. INITIATION IS ALSO POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY IN THE STRONGER INSTABILITY. THE 18Z SOUNDING FOR AMARILLO SHOWS 30 TO 35 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WHICH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. IN ADDITION...THE HODOGRAPH SHOWS VEERING LOW-LEVEL WINDS WITH SFC-3 KM SRH AROUND 200 M2/S2 WHICH RESULT IN AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. ALTHOUGH TEMPS ARE FAIRLY WARM ALOFT...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL POSE A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ..BROYLES.. 06/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ... 33810398 34270503 34950553 35720575 36500551 36810411 36480356 36150305 35580158 35070111 33340106 33130222 33500338 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 18 20:25:06 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 18 Jun 2004 15:25:06 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406182027.i5IKR8222207@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 182020 SWOMCD SPC MCD 182020 WYZ000-IDZ000-UTZ000-182215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1335 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0320 PM CDT FRI JUN 18 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN ID...WRN WY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 182020Z - 182215Z SCATTERED STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A SEVERE THREAT THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS SERN ID INTO WRN WY. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SMALL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS EXTENDING NWD INTO SERN ID WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 40S F. THIS ALONG WITH TEMPS AROUND 70 F ARE CONTRIBUTING TO SBCAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 1200 J/KG. STORMS ARE FEEDING OFF OF THE INSTABILITY...TRACKING ENEWD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING VORTICITY MAX. THE INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MODERATE SPEED SHEAR WITH SOME VEERING BETWEEN 700 AND 500 MB WHICH SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL SUPERCELL THREAT. INVERTED V PROFILES AND 500 MB TEMPS OF -16 TO -18C WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. THE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD INTO WRN WY BY THE EVENING HOURS WHERE THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BECOME MINIMAL DUE TO STABILIZATION. ..BROYLES.. 06/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RIW...SLC...PIH...BOI... 42021201 41961374 42291451 43131367 44071117 43820998 42630963 42191038 42111119 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 18 20:53:45 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 18 Jun 2004 15:53:45 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406182054.i5IKsT206359@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 182049 SWOMCD SPC MCD 182049 INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-182245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1336 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0349 PM CDT FRI JUN 18 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IL/SRN IN/WRN WY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 182049Z - 182245Z ADDITIONAL WW MAY BE NEEDED WITHIN NEXT HOUR OR SO ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN IL/WRN KY -- AND POSSIBLY INTO SRN IN -- EAST OF WW 495. MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS EXISTS DOWNSTREAM OF ORGANIZED MULTICELL/SUPERCELL CLUSTERS ENTERING INTO SW IL...CROSSING THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AS OF 2015-2030Z. EXTRAPOLATION SUGGESTS THESE TSTMS MAY BREACH THE ERN PORTION OF WW 495 AROUND/AFTER THE 22Z TIMEFRAME...LIKELY NECESSITATING AN ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE TO THE EAST. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS/MODIFIED 18Z ILX RAOB PORTRAYS DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT ACROSS SRN IL/SRN IN CHARACTERIZED BY 1000-2000 J/KG SBCAPE...WITH SBCAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000-3000 J/KG SWD ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER INTO WRN KY. PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL...ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30-35 KTS AND BACKGROUND VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH MCV WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SUPERCELL/ISOLD TORNADO POTENTIAL...NAMELY ACROSS SRN IL/WRN KY. ..GUYER.. 06/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX... 39158863 39258759 39208651 38338608 37248657 36708764 36628920 36848941 38228899 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 18 20:54:08 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 18 Jun 2004 15:54:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406182054.i5IKsp206526@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 182051 SWOMCD SPC MCD 182051 ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-182245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1337 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0351 PM CDT FRI JUN 18 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN OK...NORTH TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 182051Z - 182245Z CONVECTION WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS IT SLOWLY SPREADS NORTH AND EWD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM BECAUSE THE WINDOW FOR SEVERE SHOULD REMAIN BRIEF. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG STORMS ARE CURRENTLY LOCATED EAST TO WEST ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY. STRONG INSTABILITY IS PRESENT IMMEDIATELY SOUTH OF THE ACTIVITY WITH SFC DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 70S F. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO FUEL THE CONVECTION THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THE RED RIVER SHOW ABOUT 20 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR MULTICELL SEVERE STORMS. FARTHER NW...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS 35 TO 40 KT MAINLY ACROSS WRN OK WHERE A THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS WILL EXIST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR LARGE HAIL WILL BE IN WRN OK WHERE LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPER. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY IS STRONGER ACROSS NE TX AND SERN OK. THIS WILL ENHANCE THE WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL THERE. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS. ..BROYLES.. 06/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT... 33569414 33229654 33159860 33779975 35209936 35439467  From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 18 21:05:35 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 18 Jun 2004 16:05:35 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406182106.i5IL6I212916@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 182102 SWOMCD SPC MCD 182101 COR INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-182245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1336 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0401 PM CDT FRI JUN 18 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IL/SRN IN/WRN KY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 182101Z - 182245Z CORRECTED FOR STATES AFFECTED ADDITIONAL WW MAY BE NEEDED WITHIN NEXT HOUR OR SO ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN IL/WRN KY -- AND POSSIBLY INTO SRN IN -- EAST OF WW 495. MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS EXISTS DOWNSTREAM OF ORGANIZED MULTICELL/SUPERCELL CLUSTERS ENTERING INTO SW IL...CROSSING THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AS OF 2015-2030Z. EXTRAPOLATION SUGGESTS THESE TSTMS MAY BREACH THE ERN PORTION OF WW 495 AROUND/AFTER THE 22Z TIMEFRAME...LIKELY NECESSITATING AN ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE TO THE EAST. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS/MODIFIED 18Z ILX RAOB PORTRAYS DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT ACROSS SRN IL/SRN IN CHARACTERIZED BY 1000-2000 J/KG SBCAPE...WITH SBCAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000-3000 J/KG SWD ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER INTO WRN KY. PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL...ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30-35 KTS AND BACKGROUND VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH MCV WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SUPERCELL/ISOLD TORNADO POTENTIAL...NAMELY ACROSS SRN IL/WRN KY. ..GUYER.. 06/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX... 39158863 39258759 39208651 38338608 37248657 36708764 36628920 36848941 38228899 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 18 21:48:40 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 18 Jun 2004 16:48:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406182149.i5ILnO205132@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 182145 SWOMCD SPC MCD 182145 COZ000-UTZ000-182245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1338 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0445 PM CDT FRI JUN 18 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO NWWD ACROSS CENTRAL/NWRN CO TO NERN UT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 182145Z - 182245Z ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SERN CO. SMALL AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD PRECLUDE THE ISSUANCE OF A WW. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL INTO NWRN CO TO NERN UT DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. VIS IMAGERY INDICATED AN ISOLATED STORM OVER THE SERN CO COUNTY OF LAS ANIMAS. A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS EXISTS ACROSS SERN CO... WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGESTING THE LIKELIHOOD FOR SUSTAINED STORM ORGANIZATION WITH ROTATING UPDRAFTS. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP NWWD ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CUSTER AND SAGUACHE COUNTIES WITH A THREAT FOR HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS AS THEY MOVE EWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO THE INSTABILITY AXIS. ATTM...MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED SWD ACROSS NERN-ERN NM WHERE INSTABILITY IS GREATER...WITH ONLY SMALL AREAL COVERAGE ACROSS SERN CO LIKELY PRECLUDING THE ISSUANCE OF A WW. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NWWD ACROSS CENTRAL/NWRN CO TO NERN UT...AS STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WRN SLOPES OF THESE MOUNTAINS AND MOVE ENELY IN 30 KT OF MEAN WSWLY FLOW. SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT STORM ROTATION...BUT MARGINAL INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE AREAL COVERAGE FOR A MORE ORGANIZED THREAT. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ..PETERS.. 06/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...GJT... 37060325 37000484 37970533 38590600 38390763 38340884 39660964 40320969 40910737 40830493 39910476 38890414 37910310 37110267 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 18 22:05:59 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 18 Jun 2004 17:05:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406182206.i5IM6g213424@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 182206 SWOMCD SPC MCD 182205 MTZ000-IDZ000-ORZ000-WAZ000-190000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1339 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0505 PM CDT FRI JUN 18 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ORE/SE WA/WRN MT/SW AND CNTRL ID CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 182205Z - 190000Z ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. BROAD FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF PACIFIC NW UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED TSTMS FROM ERN ORE/SE WA INTO CNTRL ID/SW MT...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SEVERE THREAT INTO EARLY EVENING. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE 70S/80S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON FROM ERN OR INTO ID...WHILE H5 TEMPS OF -16C TO -18C OVERSPREAD THE REGION. RESULTANT STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON THE ORDER OF 7.5 C/KM /OR GREATER/ AND MUCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG WILL SUPPORT LARGE HAIL WITH MOST VIGOROUS TSTMS. ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL OWING TO LARGE LOW LEVEL TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS AND BACKGROUND WIND FIELDS. ISOLD/MARGINAL NATURE OF ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE WW ISSUANCE. ..GUYER.. 06/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TFX...PIH...MSO...BOI...OTX...PDT... 47541775 47911570 46941262 44941137 43831276 43171449 42561870 44301920 45981874 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 18 23:02:35 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 18 Jun 2004 18:02:35 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406182303.i5IN3I206882@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 182301 SWOMCD SPC MCD 182301 TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-COZ000-190000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1340 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0601 PM CDT FRI JUN 18 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM/FAR WEST TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 496... VALID 182301Z - 190000Z PARAMETERS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS NERN AND EAST CENTRAL NM. VIS/RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM ERN NM SWD TO FAR WEST TX ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN...DRY LINE AND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. MOIST/MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS THESE AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO AID TSTM DEVELOPMENT. STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR FROM EAST CENTRAL TO NERN NM WILL SUPPORT THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WITHIN WW 496 FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AS STORMS MOVE EWD INTO THE STRONGER INSTABILITY. FARTHER S ACROSS SERN NM/FAR WEST TX...WEAKER DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR DIURNALLY STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS. ..PETERS.. 06/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...PUB...ABQ...EPZ... 37000519 36970299 33460300 32340272 30990280 29880327 29630401 30520490 31050543 32500512 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 18 23:18:15 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 18 Jun 2004 18:18:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406182318.i5INIv214297@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 182318 SWOMCD SPC MCD 182317 ILZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-190045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1341 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0617 PM CDT FRI JUN 18 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SE MO/SRN IL/SRN IN/WRN KY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 495... VALID 182317Z - 190045Z MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT REMAINS ACROSS VALID PORTION OF WW 495. ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO THE EAST OF WW 495 ACROSS SRN IL/SRN IN/WRN KY. SEMI-ORGANIZED TSTM CLUSTERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/PROPAGATE EWD ACROSS FAR SE MO/SRN IL...INTO SRN IN/WRN KY. LOSS OF DIABATIC HEATING IS EXPECTED TO LARGELY CONTRIBUTE TO WEAKENING SEVERE THREAT ACROSS REMAINING PORTION OF WW 495 AND AREAS FURTHER E ALONG THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH THREAT FOR ISOLD LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS SRN IL/SRN IN/WRN KY...ANTICIPATED ISOLD/MARGINAL NATURE IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE ISSUANCE OF AN ADDITIONAL WW. ..GUYER.. 06/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...SGF...LMK...OHX...IND... 39388980 39368859 36558948 36559198 37479083 38439016 39398850 39418759 39238605 38238582 37528627 36738736 36618821 36598940 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 19 00:30:34 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 18 Jun 2004 19:30:34 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406190031.i5J0VG212655@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 190030 SWOMCD SPC MCD 190030 OKZ000-TXZ000-190200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1342 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0730 PM CDT FRI JUN 18 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...OK/TX PANHANDLES SWD TO WEST CENTRAL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 497... VALID 190030Z - 190200Z INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT AND SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED BY 01-02Z TO THE NORTH OF AMA AND TO THE NE OF LBB. SEVERE THREAT SHOULD ALSO INCREASE ACROSS FAR WRN PORTIONS OF WW...AS STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS FAR EAST CENTRAL NM MOVE INTO TX. 00Z SURFACE ANALYSIS/VIS IMAGERY SHOWED THE LARGE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION OVER OK/NRN TX CONTINUED TO SURGE W AND SW INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE AND NWRN TX. SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NWRN TX WSWWD ACROSS THE NRN TX PANHANDLE NEAR 35 N AMA...AND THEN NWWD TO THE CO FRONT RANGE. LATEST VIS/ RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED STORMS DEVELOPING AT THE INTERSECTION OF THE LARGE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND THE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER FLOYD...BRISCOE AND MOTLEY COUNTIES. AIR MASS ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE SWD TO THE LOW ROLLING HILLS OF WEST CENTRAL TX IS MODERATELY TO VERY UNSTABLE WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. MEANWHILE...THUNDERSTORM MERGERS ACROSS FAR EAST CENTRAL NM WILL CONTINUE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES EWD INTO TX...AND A RESULTANT INCREASE FOR A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. ..PETERS.. 06/19/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA... 36930298 36939987 33340000 33390302 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 19 02:14:40 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 18 Jun 2004 21:14:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406190215.i5J2FM223646@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 190211 SWOMCD SPC MCD 190211 OKZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-190245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1343 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0911 PM CDT FRI JUN 18 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NERN NM/WEST CENTRAL TX AND TX/OK PANHANDLES CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 496...497... VALID 190211Z - 190245Z WW 497 WILL BE REPLACED WITH NEW WW FOR THE SAME AREA. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTION ACROSS OK/NRN TX HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE W AND SW ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE AND WEST CENTRAL TX. CLUSTERS OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AS THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERSECTS THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NRN TX PANHANDLE...AND AS STORMS OVER NERN NM MOVE EWD INTO TX MERGING WITH THE STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. A CLUSTER OF STORMS FARTHER SOUTH FROM YOAKUM COUNTY TX TO CASTRO COUNTY TX HAS DEVELOPED A COLD POOL WITH FORWARD PROPAGATION LIKELY...AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THIS CLUSTER WILL INTERACT WITH THE WWD MOVING LARGE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY... AND SHOULD RESULT IN FURTHER STORM INTENSIFICATION. AIR MASS ACROSS THESE AREAS REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE...WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR CONTINUING TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE OK PANHANDLE IS NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT/IN A MORE SLIGHTLY STABLE AIR MASS...STORMS ACROSS NERN NM/SERN CO MAY MOVE SEWD ACROSS THIS REGION POSING A THREAT FOR ELEVATED SEVERE STORMS. ..PETERS.. 06/19/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ... 36959988 36259979 33370003 33340148 33270307 35390298 36400353 36980316  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 19 04:56:54 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 18 Jun 2004 23:56:54 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406190457.i5J4va224652@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 190456 SWOMCD SPC MCD 190456 OKZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-190630- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1344 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1156 PM CDT FRI JUN 18 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...OK/TX PANHANDLES SWD TO TX SOUTH PLAINS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 498... VALID 190456Z - 190630Z HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREATS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE TX SOUTH PLAINS NWD ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE...WITH SOMEWHAT LESS OF A THREAT OVER THE OK PANHANDLE. LATE EVENING SURFACE MESO-ANALYSES COMBINED WITH REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED THE COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS ANTICYCLONE...EXTENDED FROM NRN AR WWD ACROSS CENTRAL OK TO THE NRN TX PANHANDLE. LARGE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER CONVECTION OVER OK/NRN TX...NOW EXTENDED FROM SOUTH OF FTW TO ABI TO WEST OF LBB AND NWD TO NEAR DHT. AIR MASS ACROSS WW 498 IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND WILL SUPPORT THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WELL ESTABLISHED COLD POOL WITH LINEAR MCS OVER THE SRN TX PANHANDLE AND THE TX SOUTH PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO AID THE EWD PROPAGATION OF THIS ACTIVITY AT 25 KT. THIS SOMEWHAT SLOW MOVEMENT SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE WIND THREAT...THOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE LIKELY. LARGE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS MOVED WWD CLOSE TO THE NM/TX BORDER IN THE TX PANHANDLE AREA...RESULTING IN LITTLE MOVEMENT OF STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE ALONG THE COLD FRONT. GIVEN MODERATE INSTABILITY AND THE TX PANHANDLE BEING CLOSER TO STRONGER FLOW ALOFT...SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE. IF A COLD POOL CAN BECOME ESTABLISHED WITH THIS ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...THEN A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS WOULD LIKELY TRACK SEWD ALONG THE FRONT/ INSTABILITY GRADIENT INTO THE ERN TX PANHANDLE. ..PETERS.. 06/19/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...ABQ... 36889988 33339996 33300207 34640198 34840301 36950306 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 19 18:00:09 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 19 Jun 2004 13:00:09 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406191800.i5JI0n215237@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 191800 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191759 ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-192000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1345 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1259 PM CDT SAT JUN 19 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN OK...WRN AR AND NE TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 191759Z - 192000Z A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE CONVECTION MOVES EWD ACROSS FAR ERN OK...WRN AR AND FAR NE TX. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR INDIVIDUAL STORMS WILL BE BRIEF AND WIND DAMAGE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. WV IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED MCV ROTATING ACROSS SERN OK AND NE TX. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CONVECTION IS APPROACHING A NARROW MOISTURE AXIS WITH STRONG INSTABILITY EXTENDING FROM TEXARKANA NWD TO FT SMITH WHERE SBCAPE VALUES CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 2500 TO 3500 J/KG. THE LINE OF STORMS CURRENTLY ACROSS ERN OK SHOULD STRENGTHEN AS THEY MOVE EWD INTO INCREASING INSTABILITY. THE DQU PROFILER ACROSS FAR SW AR SHOWS ABOUT 20 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE A THREAT FOR STRONG PULSE OR MULTICELL STORMS. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS 0-2 KM LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 7.0 C/KM ACROSS SW AR AND FAR SE OK. AS THE LINE MOVES EWD INTO THIS AXIS...A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. ..BROYLES.. 06/19/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD... 33209372 32379463 31799650 31929731 32539753 32979713 33149603 34159504 35389486 35829407 35379324 34069324 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 19 19:11:21 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 19 Jun 2004 14:11:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406191912.i5JJC0214772@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 191910 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191910 COZ000-192115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1346 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0210 PM CDT SAT JUN 19 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ECNTRL CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 191910Z - 192115Z A HAIL OR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST AS STORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE EWD ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS A DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF UTAH INTO NRN CO. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EWD TOWARD THE FRONT RANGE HELPING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. SFC TEMPS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO RISE TODAY. HOWEVER...VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING HAS DEVELOPED FROM DENVER EWD TO LIMON AND AKRON. THIS AREA WILL LIKELY HEAT UP QUICKLY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE PROBABLE BY LATE AFTERNOON SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A NARROW JET AXIS AT 500 MB EXTENDING ESEWD ACROSS WY AND NEB WITH 30 TO 40 KT OF MID-LEVEL FLOW OVER MOST OF CO. THIS IS RESULTING IN STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF 50 TO 60 KT WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SUPERCELLS GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE STORMS WILL ORGANIZE AS THEY MOVE EWD OUT OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH A HAIL THREAT OR BRIEF WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR. ..BROYLES.. 06/19/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU... 37890299 37230320 37070376 37090460 37180521 38110543 38640537 40290522 40410476 40400379 40080315 39900314 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 19 19:26:52 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 19 Jun 2004 14:26:52 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406191927.i5JJRV221606@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 191926 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191926 MEZ000-NHZ000-192130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1347 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0226 PM CDT SAT JUN 19 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...MAINE/NH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 191926Z - 192130Z MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...A SEVERE WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ORGANIZED TSTM CLUSTERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/SPREAD EWD ACROSS MAINE AND PORTIONS OF NH THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND OCCLUDED/COLD FRONT TRAVERSE THE REGION. DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION /ACROSS MUCH OF MAINE/ HAS BEEN INHIBITED BY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER MUCH OF THE DAY. HOWEVER SOME EARLY AFTERNOON CLEARING AND NARROW WARM/MOIST SECTOR BENEATH UPPER COLD POOL /-22C AT 500MB/ IS CONTRIBUTING TO MUCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG PER LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH STRONG SHEAR PROFILES/LOW FREEZING LEVELS SUGGEST MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/WIND GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH MOST VIGOROUS TSTMS. OVERALL MARGINAL/ISOLD NATURE IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE NECESSITY FOR WW ISSUANCE. ..GUYER.. 06/19/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX... 47216933 47286846 46706780 45726781 44586833 43946940 43367031 42897093 42867204 44007180 44977112 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 19 20:46:55 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 19 Jun 2004 15:46:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406192047.i5JKlY223388@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 192043 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192043 ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-192245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1348 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0343 PM CDT SAT JUN 19 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...AR...NE TX...NW LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 192043Z - 192245Z A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A LINE MOVING EWD ACROSS AR. OTHER STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS NE TX WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT AS WELL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A CONVECTIVE BOW WITH A COLD POOL IS CURRENTLY MOVING EWD ACROSS SWRN AR. THE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG AN EAST TO WEST INSTABILITY GRADIENT AND MAY TURN MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE HIGHER SFC DEWPOINTS ACROSS NRN LA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ONLY ABOUT 20 KT WHICH WILL LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. AN ADDITIONAL LIMITING FACTOR FOR DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL IS THE SLOW FORWARD MOTION (25 KT) OF THE LINE. STILL...STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOI ****ERROR: INCOMPLETE DATA   000 NTXX98 KBMX 192043 MONMSG THIS IS A TEST MESSAGE FROM BMX WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 19 21:03:12 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 19 Jun 2004 16:03:12 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406192103.i5JL3p200463@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 192058 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192057 WYZ000-192300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1349 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0357 PM CDT SAT JUN 19 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SCNTRL WY INTO SE WY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 192057Z - 192300Z MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGEST STORMS REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH /EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY/ MOVING THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MODEST DAYTIME INSOLATION HAS CONTRIBUTED TO SBCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 2000 J/KG PER LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. GIVEN MODERATE INSTABILITY...DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 35-40 KT /SUPPORTED BY MODEST CORE OF WESTERLIES/ WILL FAVOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS...WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE. ..GUYER.. 06/19/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CYS...RIW... 43480773 43560687 43420538 42900451 42310426 41650427 41100461 41060571 41120721 41240841 41860898 42680893 43400830 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 20 00:27:22 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 19 Jun 2004 19:27:22 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406200028.i5K0S1221489@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 200027 SWOMCD SPC MCD 200027 OKZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-200200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1350 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0727 PM CDT SAT JUN 19 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NM...NWRN TX PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 200027Z - 200200Z ...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WILL SPREAD ACROSS NERN NM TOWARD THE NWRN TX PANHANDLE. WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME... ISOLATED SUPERCELLS...MAINLY ACROSS SERN COLFAX AND SAN MIGUEL COUNTIES...HAVE DEVELOPED AND APPEAR TO BE ROOTED WITHIN A FAIRLY MOIST...BUT RELATIVELY COOL BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS ACTIVITY IS PROPAGATING ESEWD TOWARD THE TX PANHANDLE WHERE A SHARPENING SE-NW ORIENTED BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM JUST NORTH OF AMA...TO SW OF CAO. THIS BOUNDARY MAY BE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME THAT SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THESE STORMS MAY SPREAD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE GIVEN THE SCENARIO MENTIONED. HOWEVER...AREAL COVERAGE AND THE LIKELIHOOD THAT DIURNAL COOLING MAY BEGIN TO IMPEDE SEVERE THREAT WILL NEGATE THE ISSUANCE OF A WATCH. LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT. ..DARROW.. 06/20/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AMA...ABQ... 35340510 36750440 36910312 35910244 34930350 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 20 06:23:01 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 20 Jun 2004 01:23:01 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406200623.i5K6Nd218857@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 200623 SWOMCD SPC MCD 200622 KSZ000-200745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1351 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0122 AM CDT SUN JUN 20 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 200622Z - 200745Z POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST WITH ONGOING TSTMS. AS OF 0607Z...GOODLAND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A CLUSTER OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS ACROSS SCOTT...WICHITA AND KEARNEY COUNTIES IN W-CNTRL KS MOVING SEWD AT AROUND 20KTS. THOUGH COMPLEX APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING A PROGRESSIVELY MORE ORGANIZED COLD POOL...RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITHIN INFLOW REGION INDICATE A VERY STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH MLCIN VALUES OF OVER 400 J/KG. THIS HIGH STATIC STABILITY SHOULD LARGELY LIMIT OVERALL DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WITH ONGOING STORMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO...HOWEVER...SHOW A MODERATE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY ABOVE SURFACE INVERSION OWING TO STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE IN THE 800-750MB LAYER. THOUGH EFFECTIVE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK...STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. STRENGTHENING SSELY LLJ FROM THE TX PNHDL/WRN OK NWD INTO WRN KS SHOULD HELP SUSTAIN ONGOING STORMS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED AND A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ..MEAD.. 06/20/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD... 38340150 38500075 37939972 37389999 37280091 37640164 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 20 17:26:47 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 20 Jun 2004 12:26:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406201727.i5KHRN223208@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 201726 SWOMCD SPC MCD 201726 GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-201930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1352 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1226 PM CDT SUN JUN 20 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN FL...SRN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 201726Z - 201930Z A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER NRN FL AND SRN GA THIS AFTERNOON. SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A SEA BREEZE FRONT ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE WHERE CONVECTION IS ONGOING. A STATIONARY FRONT ALSO EXISTS FROM THE WRN FL PANHANDLE EXTENDING EWD ACROSS SRN GA TO THE COAST NORTH OF JACKSONVILLE. A BAND OF CUMULUS IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY...EVIDENT ON VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR STRONG CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. THE ATMOSPHERE IS VERY UNSTABLE ALREADY WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 3000 J/KG ACROSS SRN GA. ALTHOUGH SHEAR IS WEAK...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 8.0 C/KM JUST SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THE STRONG INSTABILITY...STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND HIGH SFC MOISTURE (LOW TO MID 70 F DEWPOINTS) WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SHORT-LIVED MARGINALLY SEVERE PULSE OR MULTICELL STORMS WITH A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS. ..BROYLES.. 06/20/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE... 30748551 31558427 31978304 32168182 32188121 31868110 31208148 30938150 30518167 30428238 30208350 29988438 29678496 29908527 30278575 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 20 18:50:04 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 20 Jun 2004 13:50:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406201850.i5KIof224456@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 201849 SWOMCD SPC MCD 201848 NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-202045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1353 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0148 PM CDT SUN JUN 20 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO...SE WY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 201848Z - 202045Z LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE LIKELY AS THE STORMS GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON BY 20Z ACROSS ERN CO AND SE WY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DISTURBANCE STRETCHED OUT FROM WRN NEB SWWD ACROSS NRN CO WHERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ATTM. OTHER STORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN THE FOOTHILLS WEST OF DENVER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A CAPPING INVERSION PRESENT EAST OF THE MTNS WHICH SHOULD INITIALLY LIMIT THE EWD EXTENT OF THE SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...THE MODERATE INSTABILITY (MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG) ALREADY IN PLACE SHOULD RESULT IN STRONG UPDRAFTS. ADDITIONAL SFC HEATING SHOULD ERODE THE CAP AND ALLOW FOR STORMS TO SPREAD EWD LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE CO PLAINS. THE SRN BRANCH OF THE MID-LEVEL JET IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS SRN WY AND NERN CO WITH ABOUT 35 TO 40 KT OF FLOW. THE PLATTEVILLE CO WIND PROFILER CONFIRMS THIS WITH ABOUT 40 KT AT 5 KM WHICH WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. 500 MB TEMPS OF -12C AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 7.0 AND 8.0 C/KM WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL. DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE CONSIDERING THE STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE. ..BROYLES.. 06/20/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...CYS... 38780572 39220587 40380592 41230596 41550584 41660512 41570422 41040404 39110399 38790416 38740481  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 20 19:35:20 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 20 Jun 2004 14:35:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406201935.i5KJZu213168@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 201933 SWOMCD SPC MCD 201932 TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-202130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1354 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0232 PM CDT SUN JUN 20 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...TX AND OK PANHANDLES...NE NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 201932Z - 202130Z LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE LIKELY WITH STORMS THAT DEVELOP AND MOVE EWD ACROSS THE TX AND OK PANHANDLE. AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST. A WW WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DRAPED NW TO SE ACROSS THE WRN AND SRN TX PANHANDLE FROM THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION. SFC TEMPS HAVE WARMED QUICKLY SOUTHWEST OF THE BOUNDARY AND MLCAPE VALUES CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE CAPPING INVERSION OVER THE AREA IS WEAKENING ACROSS THE SW TX PANHANDLE AND INITIATION APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING JUST TO THE NW OF AMARILLO. THE AMA 88D VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWS 30 TO 35 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR WHICH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. THE STRONG INSTABILITY IN PLACE WILL RESULT IN A LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL. 0-2 KM LAPSE RATES OF 7.5 TO 8.5 C/KM WILL ALSO FAVOR WIND DAMAGE AS WELL. ..BROYLES.. 06/20/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DDC...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ... 37030130 36320039 35500015 34910097 34540195 34860277 35590346 36250371 36740317 37090189 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 20 20:06:40 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 20 Jun 2004 15:06:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406202007.i5KK7G224503@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202003 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202003 NMZ000-202200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1355 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0303 PM CDT SUN JUN 20 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 202003Z - 202200Z STRONG CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN ERN NM AND SPREAD EWD WITH A POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IN NE NM EXTENDING SSEWD INTO W TX. CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING NEAR THE BOUNDARY IN THE HIGH TERRAIN OVER NE NM. STORMS ARE ALSO ONGOING IN THE SACRAMENTO MTNS IN SE NM. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD EWD INTO MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS FAR ERN NM AND GRADUAL STRENGTHENING SHOULD OCCUR. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR ERN NM SHOW WEAKLY VEERING WIND PROFILES WITH 500 MB WIND SPEEDS OF 20 TO 25 KT. CONSIDERING THE INSTABILITY IN PLACE...MULTICELL STORMS WILL BE LIKELY WITH HAIL POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. SFC OBS ACROSS ERN NM SHOW LARGE TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS IN PLACE. VERY STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH THE INVERTED V PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS WELL. ..BROYLES.. 06/20/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ... 32380419 32410354 32800319 34500315 35740328 36300348 36930409 36890494 36540550 35660527 34840509 33500508 32840496 32480478  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 20 20:23:58 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 20 Jun 2004 15:23:58 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406202024.i5KKOY230585@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202020 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202019 WYZ000-COZ000-MTZ000-UTZ000-IDZ000-202215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1356 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0319 PM CDT SUN JUN 20 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WY/ERN ID/NW AND NCNTRL CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 202019Z - 202215Z MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE WITH STRONGEST TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH SHEARED UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. MODEST HEATING AND MOISTURE /SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S/ ARE CONTRIBUTING TO SBCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG FROM ERN ID INTO WY/NRN CO PER LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY BENEATH 40-45 KT MID LEVEL WLY FLOW /AS EVIDENT ON MEDICINE BOW PROFILER AND LATEST RUC DIAGNOSTICS/ SUGGESTS A SEVERE THREAT WITH MOST VIGOROUS TSTMS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. PRIMARY HAZARD WOULD LIKELY BE LARGE HAIL OWING TO 8.5 C/KM /OR GREATER/ MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 500 MB TEMPERATURES OF -14C TO -18C. MARGINAL/ISOLD NATURE OF SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE WW ISSUANCE. ..GUYER.. 06/20/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...UNR...BOU...CYS...BYZ...RIW...GJT...TFX...SLC...PIH... 45191098 44860746 44250512 43660451 43030447 41820484 40460554 39900624 40180846 41411099 42811180 44261202 44781191 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 20 22:15:09 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 20 Jun 2004 17:15:09 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406202215.i5KMFj208850@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202214 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202213 NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-210045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1357 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0513 PM CDT SUN JUN 20 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME E-CENTRAL/SERN WY...SWRN SD...NEB PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 202213Z - 210045Z ISOLATED SEVERE TSTMS POSSIBLE ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA -- FROM BLACK HILLS REGION SSWWD TOWARD CO/WY/NEB BORDER CONFLUENCE...AND SHIFTING SEWD ACROSS PARTS OF NEB PANHANDLE. OCCASIONAL LARGE HAIL AND GUSTS NEAR SEVERE LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE. WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM BUT MAY BE REQUIRED LATER THIS EVENING IF POTENTIAL INCREASES FOR MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE CLUSTER OR MCS. 21Z SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD ACROSS NERN WY...THROUGH FRONTAL-WAVE LOW LOCATED BETWEEN WRL-CPR...THEN ARCHING SEWD THROUGH PORTIONS NIOBRARA/PLATTE/ALBANY/CARBON COUNTIES. MOIST SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO SWRN SD AND NEB PANHANDLE THROUGH EVENING. WEAK SFC WARM FRONT IS EVIDENT FROM SRN BLACK HILLS SEWD ACROSS WRN NEB SANDHILLS TO NEAR LBF -- CORRESPONDING WELL TO OBJECTIVELY ANALYZED MLCAPE GRADIENT OVER REGION. POSSIBLE SUPERCELL ENTERING FALL RIVER COUNTY SD AT 22Z SHOULD MOVE SEWD ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...EVENTUALLY REACHING WRN CHERRY COUNTY NEB WITH LARGE HAIL MAIN THREAT. OTHER STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS S OF WARM FRONT WILL CROSS PORTIONS NEB PANHANDLE WHERE MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL FLOW IS RELATIVELY WEAK PER LBF VWP AND RUC SOUNDINGS...60 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR IS FAVORABLE FOR STORM ROTATION. ..EDWARDS.. 06/20/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...BOU...CYS... 41030516 41190551 41550560 41840540 42160496 42680405 43420388 43840328 43560271 43190197 42590133 41850100 41270140 40990201 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 20 22:31:14 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 20 Jun 2004 17:31:14 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406202232.i5KMWo215476@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202231 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202230 TXZ000-210130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1358 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0530 PM CDT SUN JUN 20 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS W TX...INCLUDING PERMIAN BASIN/LOWER PECOS VALLEY REGIONS. CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 202230Z - 210130Z TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE GREATLY IN COVERAGE OVER THIS REGION THROUGH AT LEAST 03Z...MOVING SLOWLY WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN RATES OF 2-3 INCHES/HOUR. ISOLATED GUSTS/HAIL NEAR SEVERE LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL...BUT GREATER HAZARD WILL RESULT FROM HEAVY RAIN. CONVECTION NOW INCREASING BETWEEN ABI-LBB...TSTMS MOVING NWD FROM NRN COAHUILA...AND CONVECTION S-SE OF MAF WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL INITIALLY. OTHERWISE STRONGEST ACTIVITY SHOULD FORM ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERSECTIONS WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED. VIS IMAGERY SHOWS PERSISTENT CYCLONIC GYRE -- ASSOCIATED WITH OLD MCV -- OVER CULBERSON COUNTY. EXPECT LOW-MIDLEVEL FORCING FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT THIS EVENING TO ITS E. CAP IS WEAKENING WITH SFC TEMPS MID-UPPER 90S F IN SOME AREAS. MODIFIED MAF RAOB AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE. LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...I.E. ROUGHLY 10-15 KT...BUT IS SLY THROUGH A DEEP LAYER WHERE 1.5 INCH PW ARE PRESENT. STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW -- GIVEN EXPECTED QUASISTATIONARY CELL MOTIONS AND AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE -- SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT LOCALLY HAZARDOUS RAIN RATES. BOTH RUC AND ETA REASONABLY INDICATE CONSIDERABLE CONVECTIVE PRECIP OVER THIS AREA BEFORE 06Z. ..EDWARDS.. 06/20/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF... 29730260 30510290 31890268 32900237 33430163 33680083 33640045 33430007 33009985 32050032 31000092 29790158 29780173 29810182 29810193 29790200 29780212 29820215 29850219 29840222 29880227 29850233 29790235 29770240 29780246 29770250 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 20 22:49:12 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 20 Jun 2004 17:49:12 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406202250.i5KMon222308@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202249 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202248 TXZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-KSZ000-210015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1359 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0548 PM CDT SUN JUN 20 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NERN NM...TX/OK PANHANDLES...NW OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 500... VALID 202248Z - 210015Z SEVERE TSTMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER PORTIONS WW 500...AND POTENTIAL IS INCREASING OVER PORTIONS OK/TX PANHANDLES E OF WW. THEREFORE EITHER NEW WW OR REPLACEMENT MAY BE REQUIRED BY ABOUT 00Z. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS DRYLINE FROM BETWEEN PUB-TAD SEWD TO NEAR UNION/COLFAX COUNTY BORDER IN NM...THEN SSEWD TO NEAR CVS. TSTMS FORMING ALONG DRYLINE NEAR CVS...AND IN EXPANDING CLUSTER AHEAD OF DRYLINE OVER DALLAM TX/CIMARRON OK COUNTIES...MAY PRODUCE SEVERE HAIL.WIND AS THEY MOVE EWD OVER NEXT COUPLE HOURS. LATTER ACTIVITY COULD ORGANIZE INTO BOW ECHO AND ACCELERATE EWD ACROSS OK PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT ROW OF TX COUNTIES...AS IT MOVES INTO FAVORABLY SHEARED AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES 8-9 DEG C/KM AND SFC DEW POINTS MID 60S F CONTRIBUTING TO 2500-3000 J/KG MLCAPE OVER MUCH OF PANHANDLES. ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR DECREASES WITH SWD EXTENT BUT WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR BOTH BOWS AND SUPERCELLS...WITH 150-250 J/KG SRH IN 0-3 KM LAYER AND 40-50 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR OVER OK PANHANDLE. ..EDWARDS.. 06/20/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AMA...PUB...ABQ...OUN...DDC... 34750321 37000502 36970187 34770021 37000187 37000059 37009959 36509938 35979948 35259963 34750021 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 20 23:09:13 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 20 Jun 2004 18:09:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406202309.i5KN9m229206@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202309 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202308 NEZ000-COZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-210115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1360 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0608 PM CDT SUN JUN 20 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN CO...WRN KS...SMALL PART OF SWRN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 499...501... VALID 202308Z - 210115Z TSTMS HAVE INCREASED GREATLY IN COVERAGE OVER CO FROM FOOTHILLS EWD ALMOST TO KS BORDER...SOME OF WHICH WILL MOVE INTO KS OVER NEXT 2-3 HOURS WITH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR BOTH BOW ECHOES AND SUPERCELLS ACROSS PRECONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENTS IN THESE WWS...WITH 0-6 KM AGL SHEARS RANGING FROM 45-60 KT. SEVERAL CANDIDATES FOR EVENTUAL NOCTURNAL MCS EXIST ATTM... 1. LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING SEWD FROM NERN CO TOWARD MCK-GLD CORRIDOR... 2. STORMS OVER PORTIONS PUEBLO/CROWLEY COUNTIES CO AS OF 23Z...EVOLVING INTO BOW ECHO AND MOVING TOWARD LHX/LAA CORRIDOR... 3. BROKEN ARC OF TSTMS FROM BACA COUNTY CO SWD INTO PORTIONS OK/TX PANHANDLES... 4. NEWLY FORMING BAND OF CONVECTION FROM WALLACE COUNTY KS SWWD ACROSS KIOWA COUNTY CO. FCST POSITION/ORIENTATION OF LLJ AFTER 00Z FAVORS ACTIVITY CURRENTLY CLOSEST TO WRN KS...WHERE LOW LEVEL MOIST ADVECTION ABOVE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL COMBINE WITH 8-9 DEG C/KM MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES TO YIELD AROUND 3000 J/KG ELEVATED MUCAPE. ..EDWARDS.. 06/20/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...GID...DDC...AMA... 37000208 37000503 40990515 40990204 36990208 40340232 40339969 37039942 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 21 01:40:15 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 20 Jun 2004 20:40:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406210141.i5L1f1217826@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 210140 SWOMCD SPC MCD 210139 KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-210345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1361 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0839 PM CDT SUN JUN 20 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...MOST OF TX/OK PANHANDLES...PORTIONS NWRN AND EXTREME W-CENTRAL OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 502... VALID 210139Z - 210345Z THREAT APPEARS TO HAVE DIMINISHED SUBSTANTIALLY OVER SRN PORTION WW -- ESSENTIALLY ALONG AND S OF I-40 -- WHERE CONVECTIVE FORCING SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL AND WHERE VERTICAL SHEAR IS RELATIVELY WEAK. HOWEVER SEVERE POTENTIAL CONTINUES FARTHER N -- BOTH 1. WITH ONGOING/SLIGHTLY BACKBUILDING ACTIVITY MOVING EWD ACROSS NRN TX/OK PANHANDLES...AND 2. POTENTIALLY WITH TAIL END OF SERN CO MCS MOVING SEWD INTO SWRN KS TOWARD NERN OK PANHANDLE. BY 6Z RUC REASONABLY FCSTS 45 KT 850 MB LLJ OVER NERN TX PANHANDLE... WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT FROM THERE NEWD ACROSS ERN OK PANHANDLE/NWRN OK INTO SWRN KS. THIS SHOULD INCREASE STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW INTO ONGOING PANHANDLES CONVECTION. LLJ CAN DESTABILIZE AIR MASS BEHIND THAT ACTIVITY AS WELL...INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR UPSTREAM MCS TO CONTINUE AND BACKBUILD SWD SOMEWHAT AND AFFECT NERN PORTIONS WW. MODIFIED AMA/DDC RAOBS AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 1500-2000 J/KG ELEVATED MUCAPE CAN BE MAINTAINED JUST ABOVE DIABATICALLY COOLED SFC LAYER. ..EDWARDS.. 06/21/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...ABQ... 34909944 34890311 37020197 37009830 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 21 02:52:56 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 20 Jun 2004 21:52:56 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406210253.i5L2rV211393@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 210252 SWOMCD SPC MCD 210252 KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-NEZ000-210415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1362 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0952 PM CDT SUN JUN 20 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CENTRAL KS...SWRN/S-CENTRAL NEB...NWRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 501...502... VALID 210252Z - 210415Z SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF SEVERE OR POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSTMS CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD TO SEWD ACROSS CORRIDOR FROM NERN TX PANHANDLE/NWRN OK NWD TO VICINITY LBF. THREAT FOR DAMAGING GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL SHOULD CONTINUE E OF PRESENT WWS PAST 06Z...PRIMARILY IN FORM OF BOW ECHOES. THEREFORE ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE MAY BE REQUIRED WITHIN CORRIDOR FROM S-CENTRAL NEB SWD TO N-CENTRAL OK. SRN MCS/S OVER NWRN OK AND EXTREME SWRN KS/NRN OK PANHANDLE MAY HAVE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR MAINTAINING SEVERE POTENTIAL OVER NXT 4-6 HOURS GIVEN THEIR PROXIMITY TO RELATIVELY RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PORTIONS OF 30-40 KT LLJ. MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ELEVATED MUCAPE 2000-3000 J/KG OVER NRN OK...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TO 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE OVER S-CENTRAL NEB. ..EDWARDS.. 06/21/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ...TOP...GID...LBF...GLD... 34899949 34870310 37000204 37029825 40360058 41050065 41420024 41449966 41169866 40669810 40069787 39349774 37419744 36809743 36259752 35869792 35719827 35689901 37009824 37029940 40329965 37029940 37030196 39000217 39130099 40310074 40339967  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 21 05:59:53 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 21 Jun 2004 00:59:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406210600.i5L60Y216669@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 210559 SWOMCD SPC MCD 210559 OKZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-210700- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1363 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1259 AM CDT MON JUN 21 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SE NEB...ERN KS AND NERN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 503...504... VALID 210559Z - 210700Z TRENDS IN STORM INTENSITY WILL BE MONITORED NEXT 45 MINUTES OR SO. IF STORMS CAN PERSIST WITHOUT UNDERGOING A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN INTENSITY DURING THIS TIME FRAME...ANOTHER WW MAY BE NEEDED...MOST LIKELY FOR PARTS OF ERN KS SWD THROUGH NERN OK. A COUPLE OF MCSS WITH EMBEDDED LINES AND BOW ECHOES CONTINUE EAST THROUGH ERN NEB...CNTRL KS AND N CNTRL OK AT AROUND 36 KT. AT THIS SPEED...THE STORMS WILL BEGIN MOVING EAST OF WW 504 BY 630Z. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DATA SHOW THE STORMS ARE NOW MOVING THROUGH THE AXIS OF STRONGEST INSTABILITY AND WILL ENCOUNTER WEAKER INSTABILITY AS THEY MOVE EAST. THIS SUGGEST ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND AS IT CONTINUES EWD. THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY REMAINS OVER PARTS OF OK INTO KS...AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAY BE SLOWER TO DIMINISH THAN WITH ACTIVITY FARTHER N. SWLY 30-40 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STORMS BACKBUILDING N OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS WRN AND CNTRL OK. BUT PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN. ..DIAL.. 06/21/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...OAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID... 35349718 35899827 41099814 40789602 36419486 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 21 07:00:59 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 21 Jun 2004 02:00:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406210701.i5L71Y208980@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 210700 SWOMCD SPC MCD 210700 OKZ000-TXZ000-211000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1364 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0200 AM CDT MON JUN 21 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN THROUGH E CNTRL OK CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 210700Z - 211000Z HEAVY RAIN WITH RATES LOCALLY 1.5 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN A NARROW BAND ACROSS NRN OK...GRADUALLY SPREADING EWD AND SWD THROUGH EARLY MORNING. THIS MORNING AN E-W CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NWRN OK S OF GAGE EWD TO S OF STILLWATER. THE ATMOSPHERE S OF THIS BOUNDARY IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND A SWLY 40 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO SUSTAIN THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH THETA-E ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT ABOVE THE OUTFLOW. THE STORMS WILL SPREAD EAST WITH TIME AND SOME SWD DEVELOPMENT MIGHT ALSO OCCUR AS THE COLD POOL FORCES THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FARTHER SWD. TRAINING CELLS ALONG AND N OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MIGHT ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. ..DIAL.. 06/21/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...AMA... 36340004 36499734 36029526 34989561 35319732 35579881 35729990 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 21 17:24:47 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 21 Jun 2004 12:24:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406211725.i5LHPK210419@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 211724 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211724 TNZ000-MSZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-211900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1365 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1224 PM CDT MON JUN 21 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AR / NWRN MS / WRN TN / MO BOOTHEEL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 211724Z - 211900Z THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST TO REDEVELOP / INTENSIFY ALONG COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. HOWEVER...WEAK DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD SUGGESTS ONLY ISOLATED / PULSE TYPE CONVECTION. THEREFORE...WW ISSUANCE NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS ACROSS SERN AR / NWRN MS...WHERE AXIS OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE IS INDICATED ATTM. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AT LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CONTINUES MOVING EWD / SEWD ACROSS AR...BUT LOW-LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION INDICATED BY MORNING LIT SOUNDING APPEARS TO HAVE SUPPRESSED WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG OUTFLOW OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. WITHIN THE LAST HOUR OR SO...FEW STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS SERN AR...WHERE HEATING / DESTABILIZATION HAS ALLOWED CAP TO WEAKEN. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG OUTFLOW OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS WITH CONTINUED HEATING / DESTABILIZATION OF AIRMASS. DESPITE THE LIKELIHOOD OF FURTHER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND FAVORABLE INSTABILITY...DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK ACROSS THIS REGION...SUGGESTING ONLY MULTICELL ORGANIZATION AT BEST. THEREFORE...ALTHOUGH HAIL AND PERHAPS LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH STRONGER STORMS...POTENTIAL FOR MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND THUS MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE LIMITED. ALTHOUGH WW IN NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM...WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE REGION ALONG AND AHEAD OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. SHOULD THE STORMS BECOME MORE ORGANIZED ON THE MESOSCALE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY. ..GOSS.. 06/21/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV... 36669067 36888917 36098824 34398856 32919070 32789280 33059424 34089413 35419107 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 21 17:44:13 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 21 Jun 2004 12:44:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406211744.i5LHij221937@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 211743 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211743 MIZ000-WIZ000-211915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1366 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1243 PM CDT MON JUN 21 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CENTRAL UPPER MI / NRN AND WRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 211743Z - 211915Z THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG SURFACE FRONT FROM WRN UPPER MI SWWD INTO W CENTRAL WI. DESPITE LOCAL THREAT FOR MARGINAL HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS...WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LIMITED HEATING OCCURRING ALONG SURFACE FRONT WHICH NOW EXTENDS FROM JUST E OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA TO N OF LSE /LA CROSSE WI/. SHOWERS / A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY ATTM...ALTHOUGH MEAN-LAYER CAPE LESS THAN 500 J/KG HAS RESULTED IN LIMITED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE / INTENSITY. WITH CLOUDS / SHOWERS EVIDENT ACROSS CENTRAL WI INTO THE WRN AND CENTRAL UPPER PENINSULA OF MI ATTM...FURTHER DESTABILIZATION OF AIRMASS WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED. HOWEVER...WITH 40 TO 50 KT MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THIS REGION...WIND FIELD IS SUPPORTIVE OF UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION. SOME INTENSIFICATION OF ONGOING CONVECTION SHOULD OCCUR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...ALONG WITH AN ACCOMPANYING THREAT FOR LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS / HAIL. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THIS REGION...AS FURTHER INSTABILITY WITHIN FAVORABLY-SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WOULD RESULT IN A GREATER SEVERE THREAT THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. ..GOSS.. 06/21/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...APX...MQT...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...MPX... 46808895 47118761 46548551 43918787 43519047 44599221 45959096 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 21 19:27:59 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 21 Jun 2004 14:27:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406211928.i5LJSV227657@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 211926 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211925 OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-212100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1367 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0225 PM CDT MON JUN 21 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO / NERN NM / FAR SWRN KS / TX AND OK PANHANDLES INTO WRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 211925Z - 212100Z THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP / SPREAD ESEWD FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SERN CO / NERN NM INTO THE TX / OK PANHANDLE REGION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. WE ARE MONITORING THIS REGION FOR WW ISSUANCE. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SYNOPTIC-SCALE FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS SWRN KS INTO THE TX PANHANDLE...WITH LOW JUST W OF AMA ATTM. MORE SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARY HOWEVER APPEARS TO BE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THIS LOW ESEWD ALONG / JUST S OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ATTM ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SERN CO...WITH CU DEVELOPMENT NOTED AS FAR S AS NERN NM -- ALL WITHIN NARROW INSTABILITY AXIS / ZONE ELY LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW. ALTHOUGH AIRMASS REMAINS MORE CAPPED SEWD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE...PERSISTENT LIFT INVOF LOW / SURFACE BOUNDARIES COMBINED WITH FURTHER DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING CAP / STORM DEVELOPMENT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS REGION -- PARTICULARLY TIMING WITH REGARD TO DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS ALONG BOUNDARY -- AS DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE / ROTATING STORMS. WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED WITHIN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS ACROSS THIS REGION. ..GOSS.. 06/21/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...GJT... 38580501 38230389 37590175 37069880 34149948 33680104 34980337 36550526 38250637 38930598  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 21 19:37:02 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 21 Jun 2004 14:37:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406211937.i5LJbY200538@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 211936 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211936 ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-212100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1368 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0236 PM CDT MON JUN 21 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...N TX / SERN OK / SWRN AR / NERN LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 211936Z - 212100Z THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG SEWD-MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. WE ARE MONITORING THIS REGION FOR POTENTIAL WW ISSUANCE. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS VERY MOIST AIRMASS S OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS N TX AND VICINITY...WHERE DAYTIME HEATING HAS ALLOWED 2000 TO 2500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE TO DEVELOP. ALTHOUGH AREA VAD / VWP DATA INDICATES FAIRLY WEAK DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD -- PARTICULARLY FROM N CENTRAL TX WWD...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THAT PULSE-TYPE SEVERE STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED. STORMS WHICH DEVELOP ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS N TX ARE BEING RAPIDLY UNDERCUT AS BOUNDARY MOVES SEWD...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE HAIL. GREATEST THREAT FOR LOCALLY STRONG WINDS APPEARS TO BE EWD INTO NERN TX / SERN AR WHERE SOMEWHAT STRONGER DEEP-LAYER FLOW EXISTS AND STORMS ARE BECOMING LESS RAPIDLY UNDERCUT BY OUTFLOW. ..GOSS.. 06/21/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF... 33650008 33419867 33589639 34089471 34419366 33299269 32759401 32239658 31799972 31950050 32660130 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 21 22:23:22 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 21 Jun 2004 17:23:22 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406212224.i5LMOA205643@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 212222 SWOMCD SPC MCD 212221 TXZ000-212345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1369 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0521 PM CDT MON JUN 21 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS N-CENTRAL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 212221Z - 212345Z ALTHOUGH AMBIENT FLOW AND SHEAR FIELDS WILL REMAIN WEAK TO MARGINAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT...SOME SEVERE WIND/HAIL POTENTIAL IS POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 0030Z OVER PORTIONS EASTLAND/BROWN COUNTIES EWD PAST SEP AREA TO SWRN FRINGES DFW METROPLEX. RISK APPEARS TOO SHORT-LIVED AND SMALL IN AREA FOR WW. REFLECTIVITY LOOPS AND SFC MAP INDICATE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING SSWWD 10-15 KT ATTM ACROSS JONES/SHACKELFORD/SRN STEPHENS/NERN EASTLAND/NRN ERATH AND HOOD COUNTIES. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD GRADUALLY DECELERATE AND INTERACT WITH N-S BAND OF TSTMS...WHICH WAS MOVING EWD ROUGHLY 15 KT ACROSS CALLAHAN/COLEMAN COUNTIES AS OF 22Z. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED ALONG RESULTANT INTERSECTION. STORM-SCALE LIFT/SHEAR ENHANCEMENT SHOULD YIELD SOMEWHAT GREATER POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS AND AT LEAST MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THAN ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR PARAMETERS SUGGEST...GIVEN AROUND 2500 J/KG MLCAPE ESTIMATED IN PRE-STORM AIR MASS. VWP AND RUC HODOGRAPHS ARE SMALL...BUT WITH STRONG VERTICAL VEERING THROUGH LOWEST 4-5 KM AGL. LOW-MIDLEVEL WIND SPEEDS ARE RELATIVELY WEAK...SUPPORTING POTENTIAL FOR FAIRLY RAPID TRANSITION TO OUTFLOW DOMINANCE ONCE STORMS GENERATE COLD POOLS. MAIN CONVECTIVE MODE SHOULD REMAIN MULTICELLULAR/LINEAR. ..EDWARDS.. 06/21/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT... 31529839 31489867 31489923 31589926 32079919 32419915 32509895 32389849 32439783 32459752 32229737 31749782 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 21 23:37:46 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 21 Jun 2004 18:37:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406212338.i5LNcL212207@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 212337 SWOMCD SPC MCD 212336 MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-220130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1370 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0636 PM CDT MON JUN 21 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NRN LA...SERN AR...W-CENTRAL MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 212336Z - 220130Z LEADING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM TWO ONGOING CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES MAY MERGE BETWEEN SHV-GWO OVER NEXT 2-3 HOURS...BRIEFLY RESULTING IN ENHANCED LOW LEVEL LIFT AND SEVERE GUST/HAIL POTENTIAL. THEREAFTER COLLECTIVE CONVECTIVE MASS SHOULD WEAKEN BECAUSE OF INGESTION OF INCREASINGLY COOL/STABLE AIR RESULTING FROM BOTH DIABATIC SFC COOLING AND OUTFLOW. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY TOO...WITH RATES UP TO NEAR 3 INCHES/HOUR EXPECTED. TSTMS THAT ORIGINATED ON GULF COAST SEA BREEZE GENERALLY ARE MOVING NWD 15-20 KT ACROSS CENTRAL LA AND SRN MS. IRREGULARLY SHAPED COLLECTION OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES PRECEDES MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY AND IS MOVING NWD AS WELL. MEANWHILE SOMEWHAT BETTER ORGANIZED LINE OF TSTMS OVER SERN AR AND WRN PORTIONS LA/AR BORDER REGION IS MOVING SEWD APPROXIMATELY 25 KT. THIS ACTIVITY CARRIES MARGINAL LARGE HAIL THREAT AND POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS THAT ARE BELOW 50 KT SEVERE CRITERIA...BUT STILL CAPABLE OF OCCASIONAL DAMAGE. ADDITIONAL TSTMS MAY DEVELOP IN DISCUSSION AREA WHEN THEIR OUTFLOWS MERGE -- INITIALLY OVER BIENVILLE PARISH AROUND 0030Z AND SOMEWHAT LATER FARTHER ENE. IN BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS...VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER COMBINED WITH AROUND 3500-400O J/KG MLCAPE MAY CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WET DOWNBURSTS WITH ANY TSTMS THAT DEVELOP. 1.75-2 INCH PW AND 18-19 G/KG MEAN MIXING RATIOS...GIVEN LARGE AVAILABLE CAPE...SUGGEST TSTMS WILL BE PROLIFIC RAIN PRODUCERS AS WELL. ..EDWARDS.. 06/21/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...SHV... 32489156 32229265 32099336 32459362 32729334 33189156 33599085 33339035 32819047 32619106 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 21 23:57:47 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 21 Jun 2004 18:57:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406212358.i5LNwI222944@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 212357 SWOMCD SPC MCD 212357 TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-220130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1371 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0657 PM CDT MON JUN 21 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SERN CO...NERN NM...WRN OK PANHANDLE...TX PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 505... VALID 212357Z - 220130Z SEVERE POTENTIAL HAS DIMINISHED MARKEDLY OVER SERN CO BECAUSE OF OUTFLOW-RELATED STABILIZATION OVER MOST OF REGION...AND/OR IMMINENT STABILIZATION AS IN BACA COUNTY. OTHERWISE RISK OF SEVERE WIND/HAIL CONTINUE BOTH WITH ISOLATE TSTMS OVER TX PANHANDLE...AND WITH POTENTIAL MCS MOVING SEWD FROM NERN NM. SEVERE THREAT ALSO MAY INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING SE OF PRESENT WW...AND REPLACEMENT WW IS BEING CONSIDERED FOR ISSUANCE BEFORE SCHEDULED 2Z EXPIRATION OF WW 505. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS LOW INVOF TCC...WITH BLENDED DRYLINE AND FRONTAL ZONE NWWD TOWARD SRN PORTION OF CONVECTION OVER UNION/HARDING COUNTIES NM. SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDS ENEWD FROM LOW ACROSS DHT/GAG AREAS AND SHOULD REMAIN QUASISTATIONARY. MEANWHILE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM MORNING MCS -- ANALYZED FROM SRN DFW METROPLEX WWD ACROSS SHACKELFORD COUNTY THEN NWWD INTO SFC LOW...SHOULD BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY AS WELL. EXPECT MOST FAVORABLE AIR MASS TO REMAIN N THROUGH ESE OF SFC LOW...NEAR FRONTAL ZONE AND N OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. IN THIS SECTOR...DEEP LAYER OF SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND 20-30 KT AS PER AMA VWP SHOULD ENHANCE LOW LEVEL SR INFLOW QUITE FAVORABLY FOR BOTH ISOLATED CENTRAL PANHANDLE SUPERCELL AND LARGER CONVECTIVE CLUSTER MOVING SEWD TOWARD WRN PANHANDLE. 0-6 KM AGL SHEARS 50 KT ARE INDICATED WITH THIS PROFILE...AND THOUGH PREDOMINANT CONVECTIVE THREATS ARE WIND/HAIL...A TORNADO OR TWO MAY OCCUR WITH ISOLATED/DISCRETE STORMS. RICH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE...WITH SFC DEW POINTS COMMONLY IN 60S F CONTRIBUTING TO AROUND 3000 J/KG MLCAPE THROUGH ABOUT 2Z. AIR MASS HAS DESTABILIZED ACROSS PORTIONS SERN TX PANHANDLE AND SWRN OK N OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...MAKING IT INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG-SEVERE CONVECTION. MOST PROBABLE SCENARIO IS FOR PANHANDLE ACTIVITY TO MERGE AND EVOLVE INTO WIND DAMAGE PRODUCING MCS WHICH THEN WOULD MOVE INTO THIS AREA LATE THIS EVENING. ..EDWARDS.. 06/21/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DDC...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ... 34740069 34770321 37750492 37750240 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 22 00:53:12 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 21 Jun 2004 19:53:12 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406220053.i5M0rl219876@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 220053 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220052 MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-220215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1372 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0752 PM CDT MON JUN 21 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SRN KS/NRN OK INTO SW MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 220052Z - 220215Z MARGINAL/ISOLD SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST THIS EVENING ACROSS FAR SRN KS/NRN OK INTO SW MO. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. SCATTERED TSTMS DEVELOPING ALONG COLD FRONT MAY POSE ISOLD SEVERE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUST HAZARD THIS EVENING. MODIFIED 18Z LAMONT OK SOUNDING FOR AMBIENT CONDITIONS REVEALS AROUND 1500 J/KG SBCAPE INVOF COLD FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS FAR SRN/SE KS AND NCNTRL/NE OK. ALTHOUGH AIRMASS HAS RECOVERED IN WAKE OF MORNING MCS AND MARGINAL/MODERATE INSTABILITY IS NOW IN PLACE...LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK/UNIDIRECTIONAL AMBIENT WIND FIELDS /E.G. 30-35 KT MID LEVEL WLY WINDS/. OVERALL ISOLD/MARGINAL NATURE IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE WW ISSUANCE. ..GUYER.. 06/22/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC... 38259376 38189331 37599308 36719326 36189417 35879551 35709756 36169899 36549930 36919952 37589736 38099498 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 22 03:18:29 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 21 Jun 2004 22:18:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406220319.i5M3J2225968@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 220318 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220317 TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-220445- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1373 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1017 PM CDT MON JUN 21 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...TX PANHANDLE...PORTIONS WRN/NRN OK...NWRN TX AND TX SOUTH PLAINS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 506... VALID 220317Z - 220445Z CONTINUE WW 506 ALONG/AHEAD OF ONGOING CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS TX PANHANDLE. AIR MASS ACROSS NWRN PANHANDLE HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY STABILIZED BY RECENT TSTMS...AND WHILE NEW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE...ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT HAS DIMINISHED NW OF AMA. MEANWHILE AREAS E OF WW 506 IN PORTIONS NRN/WRN OK ARE BEING PLACED UNDER WW 507 AS SEVERE POTENTIAL THERE INCREASES. ISOLATED/LONG-LIVED SUPERCELL -- MERGED WITH SEVERAL OTHER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AND STILL LIKELY PRODUCING DAMAGING HAIL/WIND -- SHOULD MOVE SEWD ALONG RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TOWARD KING/DICKENS/MOTLEY/COTTLE COUNTIES. SEPARATE CLUSTER OF STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS -- WITH OCCASIONAL/EMBEDDED MESOCYCLONES -- COVERS AMA AREA SWWD TOWARD SFC LOW NEAR NM BORDER AND WILL ALSO SHIFT SEWD INTO E-CENTRAL/SERN TX PANHANDLE. ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THIS REGION REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR BOTH SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHO DEVELOPMENT. LBB VWP INDICATES 30-35 KT SELY FLOW IN LOWEST KM AGL...RESULTING IN 40-50 KT STORM-RELATIVE LOW LEVEL INFLOW AND ABOUT 60 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR. SOME CINH IS EVIDENT JUST OFF SFC IN RUC FCST SOUNDINGS...ASSOCIATED WITH DIABATIC BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING...HOWEVER MUCAPE NEAR 2000 J/KG REMAINS CONDUCIVE FOR SEVERE UPDRAFTS...PARTICULARLY WHEN AUGMENTED WITH AMBIENT SHEAR. SEVERE HAIL/GUSTS MAY OCCUR E OF WW ACROSS PORTIONS W-CENTRAL/NWRN OK -- GENERALLY BETWEEN SFC FRONT AND I-40 -- THROUGH AT LEAST 6Z. VERTICAL SHEAR...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY EACH ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE WITH EWD EXTENT. HOWEVER AIR MASS JUST OFF SFC SHOULD DESTABILIZE OVER NEXT FEW HOURS WITH WAA ATOP OLD OUTFLOW POOL. ..EDWARDS.. 06/22/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...ABQ... 33469860 33410188 36210362 36240019 36180013 36439894 36689850 36689798 35939775 35169769 34629919 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 22 04:28:32 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 21 Jun 2004 23:28:32 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406220429.i5M4T3228916@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 220428 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220427 OKZ000-TXZ000-220600- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1374 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1127 PM CDT MON JUN 21 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS WRN...CENTRAL AND SRN OK...AND SMALL PART OF NW TX CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 507... VALID 220427Z - 220600Z MEASURED SEVERE GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL HAVE BEEN REPORTED WITH CONVECTION OVER WRN OK -- NOW MOVING PAST CSM -- DURING PAST 1-2 HOURS. EXPECT SOME SEVERE WIND/HAIL POTENTIAL TO EXTEND SWD/SEWD TOWARD FSI/SPS REGION...POSSIBLY AS FAR E AS PORTIONS OKC AREA-- THROUGH NEXT FEW HOURS. LATTER AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE NEW WW. MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW APPROXIMATELY 1500-2000 J/KG MUCAPE AVAILABLE TO THIS ACTIVITY. LOW LEVEL STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE WITH ACTIVITY MOVING SEWD INTO 20-30 KT ABSOLUTE FLOW -- THROUGH 0-3 KM AGL LAYER. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN PLENTIFUL THROUGHOUT LOW LEVELS WITH 70-90 PERCENT RH IN LOWEST 300 MB LAYER...15-16 G/KG MEAN MIXING RATIOS AND AROUND 1.75 INCH PW. THIS WILL SUPPORT LOCALIZED RAIN RATES 2-3 INCHES/HOUR...IN ADDITION TO AFOREMENTIONED SEVERE THREAT. CELL MERGERS WILL FURTHER ENHANCE HEAVY RAIN HAZARD. ..EDWARDS.. 06/22/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...FWD... 36919735 36059998 34979956 35809693 34989945 35189891 35499795 35659741 35589746 34159714 33619865 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 22 04:44:44 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 21 Jun 2004 23:44:44 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406220445.i5M4jq203572@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 220444 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220444 TXZ000-OKZ000-220615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1375 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1144 PM CDT MON JUN 21 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS W-CENTRAL AND N-CENTRAL TX...NW TX AND SRN TX PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 506... VALID 220444Z - 220615Z SEVERE POTENTIAL -- PRIMARILY IN FORM OF DAMAGING WIND -- MAY EXTEND SE OF WW 506 ACROSS PORTIONS W-CENTRAL AND NW TX AFTER 06Z...EVENTUALLY REACHING PORTIONS OF N-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL TX AS WELL. ANOTHER WW MAY BE REQUIRED WITHIN NEXT 2-3 HOURS. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS INTENSE AND EXPANSIVE COLD POOL ACROSS TX PANHANDLE...ALSO SURGING SWD ACROSS EXTREME ERN NM WITH 40 KT FLOW EVIDENT ABOVE SFC IN CVS AREA VWP. THIS AIR MASS IS CHARACTERIZED BY SFC TEMPS 50S TO LOW 60 S F...BROAD SWATH OF 4-9 MB /2 HOUR PRESSURE RISES...AND 35-60 KT GUSTS -- LOCALLY AUGMENTED BY OVERHEAD TSTMS BUT OFTEN REMOVED FROM IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF CONVECTION. CONVECTION NOW OVER SERN PANHANDLE MAY FORM PART OF EARLY STAGE PROGRESSIVE DERECHO EVENT THAT COULD AFFECT AREAS S AND SE OF WW 506 AFTER ABOUT 06Z. PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY ATTM IS HOW MUCH DETRIMENTAL INFLUENCE ON SEVERE POTENTIAL WOULD RESULT FROM STABILIZING PROCESSES RELATED TO LARGE AND GENERALLY NONSEVERE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX NOW LOCATED BETWEEN JCT-SEP-SJT. THAT EVENTUALLY MAY FAVOR CORRIDOR BETWEEN CDS-ABI-FTW -- NEAR AND JUST N OF AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM PREVIOUS DAY -- FOR PROPAGATION OF ANY DERECHO EVENT BECAUSE OF RELATIVELY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS REMAINING N OF I-20. RUC FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE 1500-2500 J/KG ELEVATED MUCAPE WILL REMAIN IN LATTER REGION THROUGH AT LEAST 08Z...SUPPORTING BOTH ONGOING AND ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THAT WOULD DRIVE COLD POOL FURTHER ALONG. ..EDWARDS.. 06/22/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...FWD...SJT...MAF... 36240010 36250050 35250178 34890274 33450189 33469861 33789875 33759821 33599766 33279732 32739730 32259768 31909848 31790047 31640092 32210241 33470262 34000224 33450187 33489865 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 22 09:09:03 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 22 Jun 2004 04:09:03 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406220909.i5M99W222121@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 220905 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220905 OKZ000-TXZ000-221130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1377 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0405 AM CDT TUE JUN 22 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...S CNTRL AND SE OK THROUGH PARTS OF N TX CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 220905Z - 221130Z HEAVY RAIN WITH RATES LOCALLY 1.5 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF S OK THROUGH N TX THROUGH 12Z. EARLY THIS MORNING A LINEAR MCS WITH TRAILING STRATIFORM REGION EXTENDS FROM NEAR MUSKOGEE IN ERN OK SWWD TO NEAR WICHITA FALLS IN NW TX. THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING SEWD AT 25 TO 30 KT. OTHER STORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER SRN THROUGH SE OK IN WHAT APPEARS TO BE A ZONE OF ASCENT RESULTING FROM THE SLY LOW LEVEL JET ENHANCING ISENTROPIC LIFT N OF AN E-W BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS ACROSS N TX. MERGERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEWD MOVING MCS AND THE ELEVATED CONVECTION DOWNSTREAM MAY CONTRIBUTE TO LOCALLY ENHANCED RAINFALL RATES NEXT FEW HOURS. ..DIAL.. 06/22/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... 34459477 33149798 33689879 35689512 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 22 15:28:09 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 22 Jun 2004 10:28:09 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406221528.i5MFSZ202665@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 221527 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221527 LAZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-221730- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1378 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1027 AM CDT TUE JUN 22 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX / SRN AR / MUCH OF LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 221527Z - 221730Z THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ACROSS THIS REGION SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE IN INTENSITY THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH ONLY A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS...THREAT MAY INCREASE TO THE DEGREE THAT WW MAY BE REQUIRED BY EARLY AFTERNOON. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES TWO MCSS WITH ASSOCIATED MCVS -- ONE ACROSS AR AND ONE MOVING ACROSS ERN TX ATTM. E OF THE TX SYSTEM AND S OF THE AR STORMS...AIRMASS REMAINS VERY MOIST WITH MID TO UPPER 70S DEWPOINTS INDICATED. THIS COMBINED WITH AROUND 7 C/KM 700 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES ACROSS THIS REGION PER MORNING RAOBS...DIURNAL HEATING WILL ALLOW AIRMASS TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE /2000 TO 3000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE EXPECTED/. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS RELATIVELY WEAK ACROSS THIS REGION WITH MID-LEVEL FLOW AOB 25 KT...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST PULSE / MULTICELL STORMS WITH OCCASIONAL STRONG GUSTS OR MARGINALLY-SEVERE HAIL. ADDITIONALLY -- GIVEN DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE / LOW LCLS ALONG WITH AROUND 15 KT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR INDICATED BY AREA VWPS / PROFILERS...A BRIEF / WEAK TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT WOULD OCCUR IF STORMS CAN BECOME ORGANIZED ON THE MESOSCALE ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AHEAD OF ERN TX MCV / COLD POOL. ..GOSS.. 06/22/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LZK...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP... 33349438 33969284 33489182 32759137 31189157 29619213 29789365 28509650 30459601 31749628 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 22 16:08:50 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 22 Jun 2004 11:08:50 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406221609.i5MG9J230792@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 221608 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221608 PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-221745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1379 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1108 AM CDT TUE JUN 22 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL MD / NRN AND WRN VA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 221608Z - 221745Z THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL MD SWD ACROSS NRN AND INTO WRN VA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. WW MAY BE REQUIRED. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ACROSS ERN OH / WRN PA / WV...BUT CLEARING IS EVIDENT IN LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS ACROSS THE DELMARVA REGION SWWD ACROSS VA. ALTHOUGH VEERED SWLY FLOW IS INDICATED ACROSS THIS REGION ATTM...MODELS SUGGEST THAT CONVERGENCE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS CONVERGENCE INCREASES / LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS -- WITH FRONT FORECAST TO EVENTUALLY MOVE / REDEVELOP E OF THE APPALACHIANS BY LATE AFTERNOON. MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS EXISTS ACROSS THIS REGION...WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 ACROSS MUCH OF THIS AREA. ALTHOUGH WEAK LAPSE RATES OVER THE AREA WILL LIMIT DESTABILIZATION TO SOME DEGREE...STRONG HEATING ACROSS THIS REGION COMBINED WITH DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW 1000 TO 2000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH STRONGEST MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD REMAIN N OF THIS REGION...MODERATELY STRONG / NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW DEVELOPING STORMS TO BECOME ORGANIZED / SEVERE. LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH SOME HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH STRONGER STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE GREATEST WIND THREAT LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH ANY SMALL-SCALE LINES / BOWS WHICH MAY DEVELOP. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS REGION REGARDING TIMING OF INITIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND ASSOCIATED POTENTIAL FOR WW ISSUANCE. ..GOSS.. 06/22/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK... 40327678 40227536 37087774 37128057 38027964 40047830 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 22 16:34:29 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 22 Jun 2004 11:34:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406221634.i5MGYw215493@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 221634 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221633 TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-221800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1380 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1133 AM CDT TUE JUN 22 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CNTRL TN INTO NRN MS/NRN AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 221633Z - 221800Z CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CROSSING THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MAY POSE ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUST/HAIL THREAT. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...HOWEVER A SEVERE WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. MODEST INSOLATION HAS ALLOWED SFC TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S IN WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF APPROACHING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL. WITH SFC DEWPOINTS AROUND 70...LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS SBCAPE AS HIGH AS 1000-1500 J/KG. REGIONAL VAD WIND PROFILES AND RUC DIAGNOSTICS PORTRAY ONLY MARGINAL WLY/UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES /20-30 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR/ DOWNSTREAM OF THIS COMPLEX. GIVEN SOMEWHAT MARGINAL INSTABILITY/AMBIENT WIND FIELDS AND LAPSE RATES...OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED. HOWEVER POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS /AND POSSIBLY MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/ MAY EXIST OWING TO PROPAGATIONAL COMPONENT OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEX COLD POOL AND/OR ANY ISOLD MULTICELLS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE LINE. ..GUYER.. 06/22/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN... 35958979 36238810 36038582 35138536 34668562 33988621 33498760 33488852 33478990 33839058 35229020 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 22 17:58:00 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 22 Jun 2004 12:58:00 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406221758.i5MHwV202928@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 221757 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221757 KYZ000-VAZ000-TNZ000-222000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1381 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1257 PM CDT TUE JUN 22 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...KY/NRN TN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 221757Z - 222000Z POTENTIAL MAY EXIST FOR ISOLD/MARGINAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/HAIL THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOST VIGOROUS TSTMS. SEVERE WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED. FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE TSTMS. LATEST RUC POINT SOUNDINGS/OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 500-750 J/KG...OWING TO UPPER 70S/UPPER 60S SFC TEMPS/DEWPOINTS RESPECTIVELY. WITH REGION ON SRN FRINGE OF STRONGER MID LEVEL WESTERLIES...SUFFICIENT BACKGROUND SHEAR /30-35 KTS/ WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR SOME ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS. MARGINAL NATURE OF LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO LARGELY MITIGATE ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...THUS WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ..GUYER.. 06/22/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...PAH... 37938588 38278410 38508326 38218280 37188250 36918340 36598450 36558561 36418663 36658748 36968767 37308753 37478716 37758633 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 22 19:27:34 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 22 Jun 2004 14:27:34 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406221928.i5MJS3200356@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 221926 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221926 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-222100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1382 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0226 PM CDT TUE JUN 22 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL/ERN ND...NERN SD AND WCENTRAL MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 221926Z - 222100Z THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A VORT MAX OVER CENTRAL ND WILL PROGRESS SEWD FROM SCENTRAL/SERN ND INTO FAR NERN SD AND WCENTRAL MN. ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. HOWEVER MARGINAL NATURE OF SEVERE THREAT SHOULD LIMIT THE NEED FOR WATCH. AXIS OF MID-UPPER 40S DEWPOINTS EXTEND FROM SCENTRAL ND INTO WCENTRAL MN. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT MARGINAL INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED IN THIS AXIS WITH MUCAPES FROM 500-1000 J/KG. RELATIVELY LOW WBZ HEIGHTS AROUND 7 KFT COMBINED WITH AROUND 7.5 C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 35-40 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL AID IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE HAIL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE CONVECTION MOVES EWD FROM SCENTRAL/SERN ND INTO FAR NERN SD AND WCENTRAL MN. LACK OF STRONGER INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT AND NEED FOR A WATCH. ..CROSBIE.. 06/22/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS... 45529837 45910033 46560081 47270097 47590049 47159765 46539539 45899523 45009567 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 22 20:13:33 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 22 Jun 2004 15:13:33 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406222014.i5MKE1228671@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 222011 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222010 LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-222145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1383 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0310 PM CDT TUE JUN 22 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX...LA AND FAR SRN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 508... VALID 222010Z - 222145Z GREATEST THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE OVER NERN PORTIONS OF WW 508 /OVER FAR ECENTRAL TX INTO NWRN LA/ WITH BOWING SEGMENT AS IT MOVES NEWD AROUND 35 KTS THROUGH INSTABILITY AXIS. SEVERE THREAT MAY PERSIST NEWD INTO PORTIONS OF NRN LA/SRN AR IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THUS A NEW MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS AREA. 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES AN INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDING ALONG THE SABINE RIVER NEWD INTO FAR SRN AR ON THE WRN/NRN PERIPHERY OF OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL/NRN LA...WITH LOWER 80S TEMPERATURES AND MID 70S DEWPTS CONTRIBUTING TO AROUND 2500 J/KG OF MUCAPE. CONVECTIVE LINE MOVING THROUGH ERN TX WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WW 508...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT OVER NWRN LA WHERE BOWING SEGMENT AND STRONGEST RISE/FALL COUPLET GRADIENT EXISTS. DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL BE MITIGATED FARTHER SOUTH BEYOND WW 508 EXPIRATION TIME /20Z/ AS CONVECTIVE LINE MOVES INTO CENTRAL LA DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF STABLE AIR ASSOCIATED WITH PREVIOUS CONVECTION. THERFORE...IF AN ADDITIONAL WW IF NEEDED WOULD ONLY BE FOR PORTIONS OF NRN LA/SRN AR WHERE INSTABILITY AXIS EXISTS WELL EAST OF CONVECTIVE LINE. ..CROSBIE.. 06/22/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV...HGX... 28979493 30219423 31249423 31679465 32239435 33039418 33349145 32439175 32149276 28849377 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 22 20:19:15 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 22 Jun 2004 15:19:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406222019.i5MKJj231749@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 222016 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222016 NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-222145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1384 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0316 PM CDT TUE JUN 22 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND NERN VA / ERN HALF OF MD / SERN PA / SRN NJ CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 509... VALID 222016Z - 222145Z STORMS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE IN INTENSITY ACROSS WW AREA. LATEST RADAR INDICATES BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF WW ATTM...WITHIN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY /1000 TO 2000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE/. ALTHOUGH SLOWLY INCREASING...STORMS HAVE REMAINED LARGELY SUB-SEVERE THUS FAR. GIVEN MODERATE DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD INDICATED ACROSS THIS REGION AND MOIST / UNSTABLE AIRMASS PRESENT...SEVERE THREAT PERSISTS AHEAD OF CONVECTIVE LINE. LIMITED STORM INTENSITY OBSERVED THUS FAR TODAY MAY BE PARTIALLY DUE TO WEAK SHORT-WAVE RIDGING / ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT INDICATED BY MODELS AND WV LOOP. HOWEVER...THE ETA INDICATES THAT WEAK MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS -- ASSOCIATED WITH SWRN QUEBEC TROUGH -- SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS COMBINED WITH PEAK HEATING MAY ALLOW SOME INCREASE IN UPDRAFT INTENSITY / SEVERE THREAT WITHIN WW AREA. ..GOSS.. 06/22/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK... 40307626 40467505 40127398 37337591 37067962 40387657  From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 22 23:05:55 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 22 Jun 2004 18:05:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406222306.i5MN6W202327@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 222305 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222304 NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-230000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1385 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0604 PM CDT TUE JUN 22 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN NJ/DE/ERN MD/ERN-SERN VA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 509... VALID 222304Z - 230000Z WW 509 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 00Z. SEVERAL LINES OF STORMS EXTENDING ACROSS SWRN NJ TO ERN MD AND SERN VA ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING SEWD AT 20-25 KT...AND OFFSHORE BY 00-01Z. 40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR ORIENTED AT AN ANGLE TO THE ONGOING LINES OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT BOTH LINE SEGMENTS AND ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS CURRENTLY EAST OF LINE SEGMENTS WILL SUPPORT A SEVERE POTENTIAL DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. HOWEVER...GRADUAL DECREASE IN AVAILABLE INSTABILITY WITH LOSS OF DAY TIME HEATING SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE OF STRONGEST ACTIVITY. ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS/HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE INTENSE STORMS. ..PETERS.. 06/22/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX... 40067554 40167485 40077405 39337431 38777491 38097518 37367580 36987635 36597751 36777833 38347628 38777606 39617649 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 23 15:19:29 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 23 Jun 2004 10:19:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406231520.i5NFK0201571@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231518 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231517 MIZ000-MNZ000-WIZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-231715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1386 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1017 AM CDT WED JUN 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND / CENTRAL AND NRN MN / NWRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 231517Z - 231715Z THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE THREAT WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH THE MORNING / EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS AREA WILL BE UPGRADED TO SLIGHT RISK IN THE 1630Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK...AND WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD ACROSS ERN ND ATTM...WITH BROKEN CLOUD COVER INDICATED ACROSS ERN ND / NRN MN. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS NERN ND AND INTO FAR NWRN MN ATTM. VERY COLD /-20 TO -25C/ H5 TEMPERATURES ARE ANALYZED ACROSS THIS REGION THIS MORNING...WHICH COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND SOME NWD RETURN OF MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF SURFACE BOUNDARY SHOULD ALLOW 500 TO 1000 J/KG SURFACE-BASED CAPE TO DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONT AND ASSOCIATED / WELL-DEFINED VORT MAX MOVING SEWD OUT OF SRN MANITOBA. AS 50 TO 70 KT NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW -- ASSOCIATED WITH MANITOBA VORT MAX -- SPREADS SEWD ACROSS THIS REGION ABOVE SLY / SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF SURFACE FRONT...WIND FIELD WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS. GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY EXPECTED...STORMS SHOULD EVOLVE INTO LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS WITH TIME...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ADDITIONALLY...SOME TORNADO THREAT WILL LIKELY EXIST AS FAIRLY LOW LCLS AND SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL VEERING / SHEAR ARE ANTICIPATED. ..GOSS.. 06/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MQT...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS... 46928994 44839185 45769641 47279975 49019808 49019514 49359512 49299483 48799462 48609385 48629286 48209210 48049151 48189081 47998953 47578920  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 23 16:05:03 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 23 Jun 2004 11:05:03 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406231605.i5NG5V232705@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231604 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231603 ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-231730- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1387 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1103 AM CDT WED JUN 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LA / SERN MS / SRN AL / WRN FL PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 231603Z - 231730Z THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION EWD INTO SRN AL / WRN FL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. WW MAY BE REQUIRED. VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS EXISTS ACROSS THIS REGION WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S. WEAK / BROKEN LINE OF STORMS IS INDICATED FROM S CENTRAL MS SWD INTO SERN LA ALONG APPARENT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...WHERE 1000 TO 2000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE IS INDICATED. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...VISIBLE SATELLITE INDICATES SOME CLEARING AND THUS THE LIKELIHOOD FOR HEATING / FURTHER DESTABILIZATION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE / INTENSITY OF ONGOING CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD IS RELATIVELY WEAK ALONG THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST...MORNING RAOBS AND LATEST VWP DATA INDICATE MODERATE / GENERALLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW WHICH WOULD SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. WITH WBZ HEIGHTS FAIRLY HIGH...HAIL THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED. ALTHOUGH SOME LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND HIGH DEWPOINTS / LOW LCLS SUGGEST THAT A BRIEF / WEAK TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...MAIN THREAT WOULD LIKELY BE DAMAGING WINDS -- PARTICULARLY GIVEN ANY MESOSCALE ORGANIZATION OF STORMS ALONG EWD-MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. ..GOSS.. 06/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH... 32598907 33298681 33008580 31868565 30208593 30188868 29068912 29049089 29639206 30719023 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 23 16:24:43 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 23 Jun 2004 11:24:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406231625.i5NGP9212931@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231623 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231623 MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-231830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1388 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1123 AM CDT WED JUN 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN WI / FAR ERN IA / NRN IL / NWRN IN / WRN LOWER MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 231623Z - 231830Z THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP / INCREASE FROM ERN IA / SRN WI ENEWD INTO LOWER MI OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. WITH APPARENT THREAT FOR HAIL / DAMAGING WINDS...WW MAY BE REQUIRED. AIRMASS CONTINUES TO HEAT / DESTABILIZE ACROSS THIS REGION WHERE A CLEAR SKY AND LOW TO MID 50S DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH FAIRLY COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESULT IN 500 TO 1000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE BY MID-AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NRN UPPER MI SWWD TO ERN IA SHOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...AIDED BY WEAK MID-LEVEL FEATURE EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY MOVING EWD / ENEWD ACROSS IA IN BROAD BELT OF CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW. FAIRLY STRONG / GENERALLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW THROUGH A DEEP LAYER ACROSS THIS REGION IS SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED / LINEAR STORM MODE. HAIL ALONG WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY WITH TIME ACROSS THIS AREA...PARTICULARLY IF SMALL-SCALE LINES / BOWS ORGANIZE ALONG / AHEAD OF FRONT. ..GOSS.. 06/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX... 45848485 45088378 43778404 42308484 41008690 40659102 40889203 42839043 43018933 43658721 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 23 16:56:36 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 23 Jun 2004 11:56:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406231657.i5NGv2232578@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231656 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231655 NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-231900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1389 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1155 AM CDT WED JUN 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN VA/NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 231655Z - 231900Z LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM ORF/DAN/TRI/CSV...WHILE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES WIDESPREAD CLOUDS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL BAND AND/OR WARM CONVEYOR BELT CIRRUS. SFC BASED INSTABILITY IS GREATEST ACROSS SERN VA AND CNTR/ERN NC...WHERE DIURNAL HEATING IS ALLOWING FOR DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR. SFC BASED CUMULUS ARE BEGINNING TO FORM AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...HINTING THAT INHIBITION IS QUICKLY WEAKENING AND SBCAPE VALUES ARE RISING INTO THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE INCREASING TO AROUND 7.0 C/KM PER LATEST ANALYSIS DATA. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE AROUND 30-35 KT...WHICH IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STRONG STORMS TO FORM. VAD WIND DATA FROM ROANOKE SHOW ABOUT 35 KT DEEP LAYER MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR. THIS PROFILE ALONG WITH LINEAR FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL TEND TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED LINES/CLUSTERS OF STORMS...WITH THE MAIN THREAT FROM DAMAGING WINDS OR MARGINALLY LARGE HAIL. ..TAYLOR.. 06/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP... 37117603 37627830 36298090 35228133 34737975 33957839 34717682 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 23 17:18:05 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 23 Jun 2004 12:18:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406231718.i5NHIU213797@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231717 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231717 MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-231845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1390 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1217 PM CDT WED JUN 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SD / SWRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 231717Z - 231845Z THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING IN SERN ND ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF WW 510 ATTM. NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED ACROSS ERN SD / SWRN MN IN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. LATEST SURFACE / OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATE MOST SIGNIFICANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING / DESTABILIZATION OCCURRING ACROSS ERN SD AND INTO FAR WRN MN ATTM WHERE STRONG HEATING IS UNDERWAY. THIS APPEARS TO BE ALONG A WEAK WIND SHIFT / CONVERGENCE AXIS EXTENDING FROM SERN ND SSEWD INTO SWRN IA. WITH INCREASING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AND INSTABILITY INCREASINGLY SLOWLY...EXPECT STORMS OVER SERN ND TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS THEY MOVE SEWD ACROSS ERN SD / SWRN MN. ALTHOUGH A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE...GREATEST THREAT ACROSS THIS REGION REMAINS LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ..GOSS.. 06/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS... 46159547 46089476 45549379 43749355 43469668 43609759 44639849 45989882 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 23 18:25:34 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 23 Jun 2004 13:25:34 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406231825.i5NIPx224098@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231825 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231824 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-231930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1391 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0124 PM CDT WED JUN 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND / NWRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 510... VALID 231824Z - 231930Z SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS SRN / ERN PORTIONS OF WW. BROKEN LINE OF STRONG / OCCASIONALLY SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES MOVING RAPIDLY SEWD ACROSS SERN ND AND W CENTRAL MN ATTM...WITH NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING AHEAD OF LINE ACROSS EXTREME NERN SD AND FAR W CENTRAL MN. MOST UNSTABLE AIRMASS EXISTS ACROSS NERN SD AND ADJACENT WRN MN...SO EXPECT THIS CONVECTION TO BECOME STRONGER / POTENTIALLY SEVERE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS IT MOVES INTO WW 511. MEANWHILE...MORE ORGANIZED / BOWING STORM SEGMENT NOW MOVING SEWD TOWARD CENTRAL MN SHOULD ENCOUNTER SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE AIRMASS WITH TIME...SO EXPECT THAT SEVERE THREAT WITH THESE STORMS MAY SLOWLY DECREASE. WITH THESE STORMS FORECAST TO DECREASE AND STRONGER CONVECTION SHIFTING SEWD INTO SD / WW 511...WE MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL THIS WATCH IN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. ..GOSS.. 06/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS... 46369984 46869612 47459536 47399395 46229409 45759667 45889896 45960005 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 23 19:32:59 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 23 Jun 2004 14:32:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406231933.i5NJXO232578@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231931 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231931 MTZ000-WYZ000-IDZ000-232100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1392 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0231 PM CDT WED JUN 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CENTRAL MT / NWRN WY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 231931Z - 232100Z ISOLATED STRONG / SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP WITH A THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS / HAIL...HOWEVER WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE ACROSS WRN AND CENTRAL MT INTO ADJACENT NRN WY...WHERE STRONG HEATING COMBINED WITH MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S/ HAS RESULTED IN AROUND 500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE. DESPITE THE LACK OF AN APPARENT / SIGNIFICANT LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARY...WEAK NELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS INDICATED ACROSS THIS AREA. THIS MAY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT UPSLOPE-INDUCED UVV TO ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS AREA REMAINS ON SRN FRINGE OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW...WITH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED / SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...IN ADDITION TO THE LIMITED INSTABILITY...A LIMITING FACTOR MAY BE WEAK SHORT-WAVE RIDGING WHICH IS INDICATED BY WV IMAGERY ACROSS THIS REGION. THEREFORE...ATTM EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED STORMS AND THUS ONLY A LOCALIZED THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER. ..GOSS.. 06/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX...PIH...MSO...OTX... 49051074 48090842 47160810 46180577 45050736 43990843 44431178 46951349 49021686 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 23 19:37:43 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 23 Jun 2004 14:37:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406231938.i5NJcD203157@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231936 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231935 TXZ000-232130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1393 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0235 PM CDT WED JUN 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SE TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 231935Z - 232130Z BRIEF TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH CONVECTION ON THE SRN/ERN PERIPHERY OF MCV OVER SERN TX. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF TORNADOES WILL EXIST OVER WHARTON/MATAGORDA COUNTIES ENEWD INTO THE WRN/NRN PORTIONS OF THE HOU METRO AREA. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR A POSSIBLE WW. VWP DATA FROM HOU AND LATEST 18Z RUC DATA SUGGEST AXIS OF 10-15 KT 0-1 KM SHEAR EXISTS AHEAD OF AN MCV CENTERED 35 MILES NORTH OF VICTORIA. MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG ALONG WITH CONVECTION ORGANIZING ALONG THE ERN HALF OF THE MCV MOVING INTO THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR AXIS OVER THE AREA WILL SUPPORT THE CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED BRIEF/WEAK TORNADOES WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. THE THREAT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO AREAS FROM WHARTON/MATAGORDA COUNTIES ENEWD INTO THE WRN/NRN PORTIONS OF THE HOU METRO AREA OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS. UNCERTAINTY IN THE DURATION/MAGNITUDE OF THE THREAT...DUE TO WEAK MID LEVEL WINDS...WILL LIMIT A WW ISSUANCE AT THIS TIME. ..CROSBIE.. 06/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...HGX... 28769598 29239645 30279622 30899537 30469505 29269502 29089521 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 23 20:06:43 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 23 Jun 2004 15:06:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406232007.i5NK7A221245@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 232004 SWOMCD SPC MCD 232003 NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-232130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1394 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0303 PM CDT WED JUN 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN NC...FAR SERN VA AND FAR NRN SC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 510...512... VALID 232003Z - 232130Z CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ORGANIZING OVER WCENTRAL/NCENTRAL NC AND FAR SERN VA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ESE AROUND 20 KTS AND POSE A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS SOUTH OF WW 512. THUS A NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AROUND 21Z. A BRIEF TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT MOVE ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER. CONVECTION OVER WCENTRAL/SWRN NC WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL NC...AND ADDITIONAL STRONG-SEVERE STORMS OVER NCENTRAL NC WILL MOVE ESEWD AND OUT OF WW 512 BY 21Z. THEREFORE ANOTHER WW OVER ERN/SRN NC AND POSSIBLY FAR NERN SC WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AS MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG AND SUFFICIENTLY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL CO-EXIST AHEAD OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. ..CROSBIE.. 06/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP... 34878039 35498051 36308026 36647916 36867803 36937667 36527587 35147628 34507735 34347876 34638000 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 23 20:55:12 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 23 Jun 2004 15:55:12 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406232055.i5NKtb223822@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 232046 SWOMCD SPC MCD 232045 WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-232215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1395 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0345 PM CDT WED JUN 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...S CENTRAL AND SERN MN / NERN IA / CENTRAL AND SRN WI / POSSIBLY NRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 511... VALID 232045Z - 232215Z SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS SERN PORTIONS OF WW...AND APPEARS TO BE INCREASING SEWD ACROSS SERN MN / NERN IA INTO THE SRN HALF OF WI / NRN IL. NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED SE OF WW 511. LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS STRONGEST ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER VORT MAX IS NOW SHIFTING SEWD ACROSS ERN MN INTO WI / FAR NERN IA...WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION / DESTABILIZATION IS UNDERWAY. OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATE 500 TO 1000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE NOW IN PLACE ACROSS THIS REGION...WHICH SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE / INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. WITH AREA VWP / PROFILER DATA INDICATING STRONG / WEAKLY-VEERING DEEP-LAYER WINDS WITH HEIGHT -- SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE / SUPERCELL STORMS...THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS APPEARS TO BE INCREASING. ..GOSS.. 06/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD... 45439404 45169304 44569150 44099015 43918781 42288685 42229013 42829274 44039557  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 23 21:09:30 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 23 Jun 2004 16:09:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406232110.i5NLA0203185@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 232108 SWOMCD SPC MCD 232108 AZZ000-232315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1396 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0408 PM CDT WED JUN 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AZ CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 232108Z - 232315Z ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS AS THEY SLOWLY INTENSIFY OVER SCENTRAL/SERN AZ OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A LIMITED THREAT EXPECTED SHOULD PRECLUDE WW ISSUANCE. REMNANT MCV OVER FAR SERN AZ WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY NNWWD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS GIVEN RECENT MOTION ON WV IMAGERY. CONVECTION WAS INTENSIFYING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE TO THE SOUTH-SE OF THE TUS AREA. BOTH TUCSON AND PHOENIX VWP/S INDICATE AROUND 15-20 KTS OF ESELY MID LEVEL FLOW IN THE 2-4 KM LAYER. THIS WILL AID IN WSWWD PROPAGATION OF CONVECTION OUT OF THE WHITE MTNS INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS OF GRAHAM AND WRN PINAL COUNTIES WHERE IT WILL ENCOUNTER A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH MLCAPES AROUND 200-500 J/KG. AS THIS OCCURS...ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER SERN PORTIONS OF PIMA...SANTA CRUZ AND WRN COCHISE COUNTIES MAY BEGIN TO POSE A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AS THEY MOVE INTO INCREASING INSTABILITY/DEEPER MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL/WRN PIMA COUNTY WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ..CROSBIE.. 06/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR... 31821288 32471319 32891253 32911148 33361076 33550970 33020937 31340982 31341091 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 23 21:21:53 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 23 Jun 2004 16:21:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406232122.i5NLMI211229@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 232112 SWOMCD SPC MCD 232112 SCZ000-GAZ000-232245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1397 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0412 PM CDT WED JUN 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN GA AND FAR SRN SC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 232112Z - 232245Z ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH CONVECTIVE LINES AS THEY MOVE EWD ACROSS FAR SERN GA INTO FAR SRN SC. OVERALL THREAT WILL REMAIN LIMITED ENOUGH THAT A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE OVER SERN GA. AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM OF THIS CONVECTION REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPES FROM 3000-4000 J/KG ALONG WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. 25 KT DEEP LAYER UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW SAMPLED RECENTLY BY THE VWP AT VALDOSTA..ALONG WITH CONVECTIVE LINES PERPENDICULAR TO THE DEEP LAYER FLOW WILL FAVOR SOME POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. ADDITIONALLY... ISOLATED STORM MERGERS MAY AID IN SUFFICIENT UPDRAFT STRENGTH TO ALLOW FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AS WELL. ..CROSBIE.. 06/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC... 31028136 31478254 31988266 32718196 32438060  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 23 21:47:08 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 23 Jun 2004 16:47:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406232147.i5NLlX227079@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 232146 SWOMCD SPC MCD 232145 WYZ000-MTZ000-IDZ000-232345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1398 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0445 PM CDT WED JUN 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 232145Z - 232345Z ISOLATED HAIL AND MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WRN...CNTRL AND SRN MT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT IN PLACE FROM NCNTRL MT EXTENDING SEWD TO NEAR THE MT-SD STATE-LINE. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY (MLCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG) CURRENTLY EXISTS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWS THE STRONGEST MID-LEVEL FLOW EXISTS ALONG AND TO THE NW OF THE BOUNDARY WHERE THE 500 MB FLOW IS NORTHWESTERLY AT 40 TO 45 KT. THIS IS CREATING 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 40 TO 50 KT SUGGESTING THE STRONGER CELLS WILL BECOME SUPERCELLULAR. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 8.0 C/KM WITH 500 MB TEMPS OF -13 TO -15 C WILL FAVOR HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. THE CELLS WILL MOVE SEWD AND MAY ALSO HAVE A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT CONSIDERING SFC TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS EXCEED 30 DEGREES F. ..BROYLES.. 06/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW...TFX...MSO...OTX... 46180776 45580727 45060748 44540871 46671289 48571612 48891617 48941506 48951323 48651242 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 23 22:31:40 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 23 Jun 2004 17:31:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406232232.i5NMW4218497@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 232231 SWOMCD SPC MCD 232230 NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-240000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1399 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0530 PM CDT WED JUN 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN/SRN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 512...513... VALID 232230Z - 240000Z CONVECTION AND SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT OF WW 512 INTO WW 513 BY 00Z. THUS WW 512 SHOULD BE ABLE TO BE CANCELLED BEFORE EXPIRATION TIME. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SURGING OUT AHEAD OF CONVECTIVE LINE OVER CENTRAL NC. SWD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL NC BOUNDARY SHOULD UNDERCUT STORMS QUICKLY LIMITING THE DURATION OF ANY SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT AND IN THIS PART OF THE WATCH. ATTM...THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT OVER WW/S 512 AND 513 WILL EXIST WITH TWO AREAS OF ORGANIZED ACTIVITY. ONE OVER WRN/SWRN PORTIONS OF WW 513 WITH ACTIVITY MOVING OUT OF SWRN INTO SCENTRAL NC SUPPORTED BY 30-35 KT 2-3 KM WIND MAX. WITH THE OTHER AREA OVER ERN NC/FAR SERN PORTION OF WW 512 AND ERN PORTION OF WW 513...WHERE A STRENGTHENING COLD POOL/NUMEROUS CELL MERGERS SHOULD AID IN SUSTAINING A DAMAGING WIND THREAT FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ..CROSBIE.. 06/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CAE... 34478011 35508001 35907747 36847628 36417555 35127557 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jun 23 23:35:30 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 23 Jun 2004 18:35:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406232335.i5NNZr219411@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 232335 SWOMCD SPC MCD 232334 WIZ000-MNZ000-240130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1400 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0634 PM CDT WED JUN 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SCNTRL WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 514... VALID 232334Z - 240130Z WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE WILL BE LIKELY AS A BOW ECHO RACES SEWD AT 50 KT ACROSS SCNTRL WI. A NEW WW IS BEING ISSUED. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SFC LOW ACROSS NW WI WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SEWD ACROSS SCNTRL WI INTO THE CHICAGO AREA. A BOW ECHO IS CURRENTLY NEAR THE SFC LOW AND SHOULD TRACK SEWD ALONG THE WARM FRONT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER 60S F ACROSS SERN WI AND THE BOW ECHO SHOULD CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE AS IT MOVES INTO INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. THE LINE IS JUST AHEAD OF A 80 KT MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX. AS THIS FEATURE PUNCHES SEWD...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL INCREASE. IN ADDITION...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS INCREASING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHICH WILL ALSO AID INTENSIFICATION OF THE LINE. AS A RESULT...WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE IN A NARROW CORRIDOR FROM NW TO SE APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS SCNTRL WI. ..BROYLES.. 06/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX... 43659127 44169131 44659073 44348826 44098761 43558776 43148792 43248914 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 24 00:09:29 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 23 Jun 2004 19:09:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406240009.i5O09r202629@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 240009 SWOMCD SPC MCD 240008 SCZ000-GAZ000-240215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1401 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0708 PM CDT WED JUN 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/SRN SC CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 240008Z - 240215Z BOW ECHO THAT HAS ORGANIZED OVER FAR ECENTRAL GA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EWD AROUND 40 KTS INTO THE PIEDMONT OF SC OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS. DIURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION WILL AID IN A DECREASED SEVERE THREAT AHEAD OF THIS LINE BY 02Z. LATEST VWP FROM CHARLESTON AND MACON GA...INDICATES AROUND 35 TO 40 KTS OF SWLY LOW-MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS WHICH WILL CONTINUE SUPPORT FAST EWD MOVEMENT OF TWO CONVECTIVE LINES AS THEY MOVE THROUGH WRN/SRN SC OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS. BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION WILL AID IN A WEAKENING OF THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT TO THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS OVER WRN/SRN SC...AND THUS A WW IS NOT WARRANTED. ..CROSBIE.. 06/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP... 32348054 33168174 34078267 34328157 33417955 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 24 03:11:47 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 23 Jun 2004 22:11:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406240313.i5O3Cx221687@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 240311 SWOMCD SPC MCD 240310 MIZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-240445- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1402 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1010 PM CDT WED JUN 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN WI...LOWER MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 515...516... VALID 240310Z - 240445Z A WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL THREAT WILL EXIST WITH A LINE OF STORMS ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN INTO SRN LOWER MI. WW 515 WILL BE REPLACED WITH A NEW WW. A CLUSTER OF TORNADIC SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES IS BEGINNING TO MOVE OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. THE AIR OVER LAKE MICHIGAN IS MUCH MORE STABLE THAN THE LAND AREAS TO THE WEST. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A TEMPORARY LULL IN THE INTENSITY OF THE CLUSTER. ACROSS LOWER MI...OUTFLOW FROM THIS AFTERNOON'S STORMS CAUSED SOME STABILIZATION. HOWEVER...ENOUGH INSTABILITY IS STILL IN PLACE WITH UPPER 50S F SFC DEWPOINTS PRESENT. IN ADDITION...AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX OF 85 KT IS RESULTING IN ABOUT 65 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. EVEN THOUGH INSTABILITY IS WEAK...THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR COMBINED WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET OF 35 KT PUNCHING IN FROM THE WEST...WILL RESULT IN A WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES. ..BROYLES.. 06/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...GRB...LOT...MKX... 42668839 43668809 44468689 43318274 42438296 41748411 42418791 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 24 06:37:39 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 24 Jun 2004 01:37:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406240638.i5O6c2212558@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 240637 SWOMCD SPC MCD 240637 MIZ000-INZ000-240730- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1403 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0137 AM CDT THU JUN 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AND SRN LOWER MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 517... VALID 240637Z - 240730Z THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY PERSIST ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO. HOWEVER...TREND HAS BEEN FOR THREAT TO BECOME INCREASINGLY MARGINAL. EARLY THIS MORNING A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS FROM ERN LOWER MI SWWD INTO SWRN LOWER MI. THIS LINE IS MOVING EAST AT 40 TO 45 KT AND IS BEING SUSTAINED BY STRONG FORCING FOR DEEP LAYER ASCENT IN EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET. RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT STRONG WIND GUSTS...THOUGH SUB SEVERE...ARE STILL REACHING THE SURFACE. OTHER MORE CELLULAR...ELEVATED STORMS ARE DEVELOPING JUST EAST OF THE LINE IN WHAT APPEARS TO BE A ZONE OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. NOCTURNAL COOLING HAS STABILIZED THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...PRESENCE OF 50 KT SWLY FLOW IN THE .5-1 KM LAYER AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL MAY STILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH THE STRONGER CONVECTION. ..DIAL.. 06/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...GRR... 42158628 42738463 44088326 43728234 42078272 41738599 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 24 16:27:02 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 24 Jun 2004 11:27:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406241627.i5OGRO231632@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 241625 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241625 MSZ000-LAZ000-241800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1404 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1125 AM CDT THU JUN 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LA / SWRN MS... CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 241625Z - 241800Z THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. WW MAY BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO FOR THIS REGION AS STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS OR AN ISOLATED TORNADO. VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS /DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S/ ARE INDICATED ACROSS SRN LA ATTM...WHERE 1000 TO 2000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE IS INDICATED DESPITE WEAK LAPSE RATES. BROKEN CLOUD COVER IS INDICATED BY VISIBLE IMAGERY ACROSS MUCH OF SRN LA AND INTO SRN MS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW ADDITIONAL AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR. ERN PORTIONS OF LARGE CLUSTER OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE WRN GULF CONTINUES TO EXPAND NWD INTO SWRN LA ATTM...WHERE 50 TO 60 MPH WINDS HAVE BEEN REPORTED OFFSHORE. ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS LIMITED...ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD SUGGESTS A LIMITED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS. DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND LOW LCLS WOULD ALSO SEEM TO SUPPORT A LOW-END TORNADO THREAT. WITH A WEAK CIRCULATION CENTER EVIDENT IN RADAR REFLECTIVITY LOOP MOVING ENEWD ACROSS THE UPPER TX COAST APPROACHING THE SABINE RIVER...SOME MESOSCALE LINEAR ORGANIZATION WILL LIKELY BE MAINTAINED WITHIN CONVECTIVE SYSTEM AS STORMS MOVE NEWD ACROSS SRN LA TOWARD SWRN MS. THEREFORE...RESULTING SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY REQUIRE WW ISSUANCE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. ..GOSS.. 06/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH... 30149305 30479259 31089235 31559114 31748950 31298910 29098897 29089080 29559163 29569266 29719303 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 24 18:21:15 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 24 Jun 2004 13:21:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406241821.i5OILa206356@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 241820 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241820 NYZ000-241945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1405 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0120 PM CDT THU JUN 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 241820Z - 241945Z ALTHOUGH EXACT TIMING REMAINS A QUESTION...SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS WRN NY. WE ARE MONITORING ONTARIO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...WHICH WILL LIKELY REQUIRE WW ISSUANCE INTO WRN NY BY 24/20Z. PRE-FRONTAL AIRMASS ACROSS WRN OH / THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOISTEN / DESTABILIZE...WITH MID TO UPPER 50S DEWPOINTS NOW INDICATED ACROSS ALL BUT NRN NY. STRONG HEATING CONTINUES ACROSS THIS REGION WHERE LITTLE CLOUD COVER EXISTS -- WHICH WILL SUPPORT FURTHER DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TCU / CB DEVELOPMENT IS NOTED ACROSS SERN ONTARIO FROM PETERBOROUGH / TORONTO ALONG THE NRN LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE NEWD ALONG FRONT...WHICH SHOULD INTENSIFY / MOVE EWD INTO NRN NY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH WEAKER / CU-TYPE CONVECTION IS INDICATED ALONG FRONT FROM WRN LK ONTARIO WSWWD ALONG THE NRN LK ERIE SHORELINE...THIS TOO SHOULD INCREASE AND MOVE EWD INTO WRN NY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED /500 TO 1000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE AT BEST/...STRONG / WEAKLY-VEERING DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD IS PROVIDING A VERY FAVORABLY-SHEARED ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE STORMS / SUPERCELLS. STORM MODE -- PRIMARILY LINEAR VS. PRIMARILY SUPERCELLULAR OR SOME COMBINATION OF THE TWO -- IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE. ATTM...SOME COMBINATION OF THE TWO APPEARS PROBABLE -- WITH INITIAL ACTIVITY PERHAPS MORE CELLULAR BUT LONG TERM EVOLUTION PERHAPS TRENDING TOWARD LINEAR. IN ADDITION TO HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR LIKELY ALONG WITH SOME TORNADO THREAT -- PARTICULARLY WITH ANY MORE CELLULAR CONVECTION WHICH MAY DEVELOP. ..GOSS.. 06/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF... 44947424 44517432 43487483 42597794 42547919 42797891 43327905 43517904 43637717 44147639 44447578 44827533 45017483 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 24 18:46:43 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 24 Jun 2004 13:46:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406241847.i5OIl7225051@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 241846 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241846 KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-242045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1406 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0146 PM CDT THU JUN 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN INTO WRN KS/FAR SERN CO AND THE OK PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 241846Z - 242045Z ISOLATED SVR STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ALONG SWD MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM NCENTRAL/NERN KS INTO SWRN KS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STORMS MAY BECOME UNDERCUT WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF INITIATION LIMITING THE OVERALL ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT. BUT IF A GREATER CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION CAN OCCUR...THEN A WW MAY BE REQUIRED LATER THIS AFTERNOON. INCIPIENT STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER WRN KS APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN UNDERCUT BY FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES SWD AROUND 20-25 KTS PER RADAR IMAGERY. GIVEN SLOW SEWD STORM MOTIONS OF AROUND 10 KTS PER REGIONAL PROFILERS/VWPS WITH RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW ALOFT...THIS TREND IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE. THAT IS UNLESS NUMEROUS STORMS CAN DEVELOP...FORM COLD POOL AND PROPAGATE FASTER THAN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO FAR SERN CO/THE OK PANHANDLE. FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE BOUNDARY ACROSS NCENTRAL/NERN KS...A MID LEVEL SPEED MAX/THERMAL TROUGH SAMPLED BY THE 18Z MCCOOK PROFILER...THE 12Z LBF SOUNDING AND ACCAS OVER NWRN KS...SHOULD AID IN DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED T-STORMS WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. MLCAPE VALUES FROM 1000-1500 J/KG...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND OVERALL MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL FAVOR DAMAGING WINDS AS THE PRIMARY THREAT OVER THIS AREA AS WELL. HOWEVER...SWD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE SLOWER THAN AREAS FARTHER WEST AND MAY SUPPORT SOME THREAT FOR ISOLATED SVR STORMS TO ORGANIZE. ..CROSBIE.. 06/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB... 36470246 37890256 38830189 39400001 39559746 39629591 39169544 38549552 38299623 37749833 37299939 36570032 36500104 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 24 19:13:26 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 24 Jun 2004 14:13:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406241913.i5OJDl208998@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 241911 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241911 PAZ000-NYZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-242045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1407 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0211 PM CDT THU JUN 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL IND / W CENTRAL INTO NRN OH / NRN PA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 241911Z - 242045Z THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS FROM WRN IND NEWD INTO NWRN OH...AND PERHAPS AS FAR NE AS NRN PA. WE ARE MONITORING THIS REGION FOR WW ISSUANCE. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES TOWERING CU NOW GROWING ACROSS CENTRAL IND AND NWRN OH ALONG AND NEAR COLD FRONT. WITH LOW TO MID 60S DEWPOINTS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION S OF FRONT...AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE -- WITH MEAN-LAYER CAPE NOW APPROACHING 500 J/KG. ADDITIONAL DAYTIME HEATING / DESTABILIZATION SHOULD ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP / INTENSIFY AND MOVE EWD ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON / EARLY EVENING. ALTHOUGH A LARGE COMPONENT OF THE MEAN WIND VECTOR IS ALIGNED ALONG THE FRONT WHICH MAY LIMIT THE DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL...WIND FIELD NONETHELESS REMAINS STRONG / SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS ACROSS THIS REGION. ALONG WITH SOME THREAT FOR HAIL...GREATEST THREAT APPEARS TO BE DAMAGING WINDS -- PARTICULARLY IF A FEW STORM CLUSTERS CAN GENERATE ORGANIZED COLD POOLS. SUBSEQUENT STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG MORE N-S OUTFLOW SEGMENTS WOULD BE MORE LIKELY TO PRODUCE WIND DAMAGE ACROSS THIS AREA. ..GOSS.. 06/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND... 40368719 39688659 39968305 41247976 42477908 42677932 41848183 40918533 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 24 19:29:41 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 24 Jun 2004 14:29:41 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406241930.i5OJU2219378@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 241928 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241927 SCZ000-GAZ000-242130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1408 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0227 PM CDT THU JUN 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN GA AND SRN SC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 241927Z - 242130Z LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL GA SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EWD AND MAY GROW IN AREAL COVERAGE AS THEY MOVE INTO ERN GA AND SRN SC OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION DOWNSTREAM OF CONVECTIVE LINE ALONG WITH SUPPORT BY A MID LEVEL SPEED MAX MAY AID IN AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES LOW 70S TEMPERATURES IN THE COLD POOL BEHIND A CONVECTIVE LINE AS IT MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL GA. SUSTAINED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE AND AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM OF THIS LINE WITH MLCAPES FROM 1500-2000 J/KG AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD FAVOR CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION. ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A VORT MAX OVER NRN AL...A LOW-MID LEVEL 30-35 KT WIND MAX SAMPLED BY REGIONAL VWP/S MAY SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE AS IT MOVES INTO SWRN SC. ..CROSBIE.. 06/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC... 32128389 32538401 32818397 33288308 33738143 33668090 32758061 31888106 31828267 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 24 20:07:52 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 24 Jun 2004 15:07:52 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406242008.i5OK8D209462@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 242005 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242004 WYZ000-MTZ000-UTZ000-IDZ000-242130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1409 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0304 PM CDT THU JUN 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ID...FAR SWRN MT AND WRN/CENTRAL WY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 242004Z - 242130Z ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE UPPER SNAKE RIVER VALLEY SEWD INTO THE WRN/CENTRAL WY. OVERALL THREAT APPEARS TO BE MARGINAL ENOUGH THAT A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SEWD ACROSS SWRN MT/NERN ID. CONVECTION THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE BITTEROOT MTNS OF ERN ID AND SWRN MT AND OVER THE WIND RIVER MTNS OF WRN WY WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY WITH FURTHER DESTABILIZATION EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY. BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW BENEATH MODEST 25-40 KT MID LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR THE THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. ADDITIONALLY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL FAVOR SOME SVR WIND THREAT WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. OVERALL INSTABILITY REMAINS MARGINAL...WITH MLCAPES FROM 500-1000 J/KG. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE DEGREE AND LONGEVITY OF INDIVIDUAL STORMS. THUS A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ..CROSBIE.. 06/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CYS...BYZ...RIW...TFX...SLC...PIH...MSO... 41030815 41391070 43431314 44101319 44591256 45081122 44830963 42160686 41290637  From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 24 20:36:42 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 24 Jun 2004 15:36:42 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406242037.i5OKb4228472@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 242034 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242033 FLZ000-242130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1410 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0333 PM CDT THU JUN 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SCENTRAL/CENTRAL FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 242033Z - 242130Z ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS/LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGEST STORMS DEVELOPING ON THE SEA BREEZE FRONT OVER SWRN INTO WCENTRAL FL. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE LACK OF A BETTER ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT. LATEST RAD/SAT IMAGERY INDICATES INTENSIFYING CONVECTION ALONG THE SEA BREEZE FRONT OVER SWRN FL...JUST SOUTH OF THE TAMPA BAY AREA. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.0 C/KM NOTED ON THE 12Z MIAMI AND 16Z CAPE CANAVERAL SOUNDINGS AND MLCAPE VALUES FROM 2500-3500 J/KG WILL SUPPORT VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF WET MICROBURSTS AND/OR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. INTERACTIONS BETWEEN OUTFLOW FROM SEA BREEZE CONVECTION AND OTHER BOUNDARIES /INCLUDING THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FRONT/ OVER SCENTRAL FL MAY SUPPORT ADDITIONAL THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE AREA. ..CROSBIE.. 06/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW... 26278175 27148230 27918268 28468215 28358165 27688108 26678074 26148118 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 24 21:08:58 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 24 Jun 2004 16:08:58 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406242109.i5OL9L216786@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 242100 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242059 MSZ000-LAZ000-242300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1411 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0359 PM CDT THU JUN 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LA AND SRN MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 518... VALID 242059Z - 242300Z INCREASING FORWARD MOTION ON THE MAIN CONVECTIVE LINE DUE TO THE STRENGTHENING OF THE COLD POOL OVER SCENTRAL LA WILL FAVOR THE POTENTIAL FOR AN INCREASE IN THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS THE LINE MOVES INTO THE INSTABILITY AXIS OVER SERN LA OVER THE NEXT HOUR. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LINE AS WELL. LOW LEVEL SHEAR REMAINS SUFFICIENT FOR A BRIEF TORNADO THREAT ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM 20 N OF MSY EWD TO 10 N OF GPT. OTHERWISE...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL RATES OVER 1 INCH/HR WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG NRN PORTIONS OF WW 518 /SWRN AND SCENTRAL MS/...WHERE TRAINING OF WARM ADVECTION STORMS IS LIKELY. HOWEVER...THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE MARGINAL IN THIS AREA. ..CROSBIE.. 06/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH... 29479125 30139110 31389118 31778852 29918855  From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 24 23:42:16 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 24 Jun 2004 18:42:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406242342.i5ONga205578@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 242342 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242341 OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-250115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1412 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0641 PM CDT THU JUN 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK PANHANDLE/FAR NWRN OK AND THE NERN TX PANHANDLE CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 242341Z - 250115Z CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER SWRN KS TO THE SOUTH OF DDC APPEARS TO BE ORGANIZING A COLD POOL AND CELL MERGERS WILL LIKELY ENHANCE A LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND THREAT SWD INTO THE ERN OK PANHANDLE...FAR NWRN OK AND THE NERN TX PANHANDLE. AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH AROUND 1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE EXTENDS FROM THE ERN TX PANHANDLE/WRN OK INTO THE ERN OK PANHANDLE. SO FAR STORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE SWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT MOVING AT ABOUT 25 MPH HAVE BEEN UNDERCUT BY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH HAS LIMITED THE SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW/BACKED SURFACE WINDS EVIDENT ON RECENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INTO THE FRONT WAS INCREASING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR CONVECTION TO REMAIN MORE TIED TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS IT MOVES SWD. ADDITIONALLY...CELL MERGERS IN PROGRESS OVER SWRN KS WILL LIKELY AID IN A DEEPENING OF THE COLD POOL AND FURTHER SUPPORT A LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER INTO THE NERN TX PANHANDLE/NWRN OK. ..CROSBIE.. 06/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...AMA... 36070122 36580108 37360053 37789934 37469897 37029878 36459894 35919964 35550060 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jun 24 23:45:32 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 24 Jun 2004 18:45:32 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406242345.i5ONjw207152@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 242345 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242344 PAZ000-NYZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-250145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1413 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0644 PM CDT THU JUN 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME WRN NY STATE..WRN AND CENTRAL PA...E CENTRAL OH AND THE NRN WV PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 519... VALID 242344Z - 250145Z SQUALL LINE CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EWD ACROSS NERN OH AT 30-40 KT. WE ARE MONITORING THIS AREA FOR AN ADDITIONAL WW WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. SQUALL LINE HAS A HISTORY OF DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL AS IT MOVED ACROSS NERN AND N CENTRAL OH. MLCAPE VALUES ARE RUNNING BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG AHEAD OF THE LINE. MAIN ADVANCEMENT OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT IS EWD ACROSS NERN OH INTO NWRN PA AND WRN NY WHICH WOULD PLACE THE LEADING ACTIVITY INTO THIS AREA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. SURFACE TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S..AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOW 60S AHEAD OF THE FRONT CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE TO SUPPORT STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL DECREASE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY...BUT WITH ADVANCING COLD FRONT...DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN A CONCERN ACROSS THIS REGION. ..MCCARTHY.. 06/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE... 39988140 40258110 40938060 41848025 42327930 41997810 41047794 40317894 39898004 39848111 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 25 00:06:19 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 24 Jun 2004 19:06:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406250006.i5P06i217739@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 250006 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250005 MOZ000-KSZ000-250130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1414 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0705 PM CDT THU JUN 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NCENTRAL/NERN KS AND NRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 250005Z - 250130Z ELEVATED STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG 850-700 MB FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AS THEY MOVE ESEWD AROUND 30 KTS. LACK OF GREATER INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW. RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION TO UPPER JET ALONG WITH SUFFICIENTLY DEEP CONVERGENCE IN THE ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING EWD FROM NCENTRAL INTO NRN MO WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CURRENT FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG OF MUCAPE EXIST OVER THE AREA. 25-30 KTS OF CLOUD LAYER SHEAR PER REGIONAL PROFILER DATA AND 7.5 TO 8.0 C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME STORM ROTATION WITH AN ATTENDANT MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL THREAT INTO THE MID EVENING HOURS. ..CROSBIE.. 06/25/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...EAX...TOP...ICT...GID... 39919761 39409933 38959866 38969757 38989659 38919545 38919394 38899236 39299146 39919154 40139209 39939585 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 25 00:32:02 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 24 Jun 2004 19:32:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406250032.i5P0WM230050@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 250031 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250031 ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-250100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1415 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0731 PM CDT THU JUN 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN LA AND SRN MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 518... VALID 250031Z - 250100Z ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY PERSIST FOR ANOTHER HOUR BEYOND WW 518 EXPIRATION TIME /01Z/ BUT LACK OF LONGER TERM THREAT WILL PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR ANOTHER WATCH. LINE OF STORMS MOVING EWD 25-30 KTS ACROSS FAR SERN LA/SRN MS HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF WEAKENING IN THE LAST HALF AN HOUR AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE. CURRENT LINE MOTION TAKES THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS LINE INTO FAR SWRN AL BY AROUND 02Z. AS THE LINE MOVES TOWARDS THE FAR ERN PORTIONS OF WW 518 BETWEEN 01-02Z...DECREASING INSTABILITY AND WEAKENING LAPSE RATES IN THE LOW LEVELS SHOULD PRECLUDE A LONGER DURATION SEVERE THREAT SUFFICIENT FOR ANOTHER WATCH. ..CROSBIE.. 06/25/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX... 29768954 30778954 31688930 31798857 30788824 29968826 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 25 02:30:15 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 24 Jun 2004 21:30:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406250230.i5P2UZ220013@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 250228 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250228 PAZ000-NYZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-250430- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1416 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0928 PM CDT THU JUN 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND SWRN PA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 520... VALID 250228Z - 250430Z STORMS HAVE BEEN DECREASING IN INTENSITY THE PAST FEW HOURS AS MLCAPE HAS BECOME LESS AVAILABLE DUE TO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. STRONGEST ACTIVITY IS MOVING THROUGH JEFFERSON COUNTY AT 35-40 KT. THERE MAY CONTINUE TO AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS. THERE ARE ALSO SOME STRONG STORMS MOVING THROUGH GUERNSEY AND HARRISON COUNTIES IN OH APPROACHING THE HLG AREA. IF THE GENERAL TREND CONTINUES DURING THE NEXT HOUR...WW MAY BE CANCELLED BY 0400Z. ..MCCARTHY.. 06/25/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE... 40728061 41698064 42047741 40377694 39938058 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 25 16:35:36 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 25 Jun 2004 11:35:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406251635.i5PGZsg31444@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 251635 SWOMCD SPC MCD 251634 VAZ000-MDZ000-NCZ000-251830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1417 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1134 AM CDT FRI JUN 25 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SE VA...NE NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 251634Z - 251830Z CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING CLOSELY MONITORED FOR INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND POSSIBILITY OF WW. THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY TO THE SOUTHWEST OF RICHMOND VA. THIS APPEARS TO BE IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK PERTURBATION EMBEDDED WITHIN SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES...AND SMALL CONVECTIVE CLUSTER MAY SLOWLY EVOLVE SOUTH OF RICHMOND INTO THE NORFOLK VA AREAS THROUGH THE 20-21Z TIME FRAME. WITH STRONGER SUBTROPICAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH STILL UPSTREAM... LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAS YET TO STRENGTHEN...BUT IS PROGGED TO DO SO LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...WEAK VEERING WIND PROFILES WITH HEIGHT BENEATH MODERATELY STRONG WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA IS ALREADY SUPPORTIVE OF UPDRAFT ROTATION. CONVECTION IS BECOMING ROOTED IN VERY MOIST TROPICAL BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS WITH LOWER/MID 70S DEW POINTS... CONTRIBUTING TO RISK FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES...WHICH SHOULD PERSIST WITH ISOLATED CELLS AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LOWER/MID-LEVELS MAY REMAIN UNSATURATED ENOUGH TO ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR SUBSTANTIAL COLD POOL AS CONVECTIVE CLUSTER SLOWLY ORGANIZES THIS AFTERNOON. IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS...THIS MAY SUPPORT SLIGHTLY MORE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND THREAT ALONG GUST FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA/PARTS OF NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA BY LATE AFTERNOON. ..KERR.. 06/25/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH... 36307581 35847644 35937726 36187778 36207833 36727833 37137766 37537723 37917691 37997593 37847548 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 25 17:09:04 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 25 Jun 2004 12:09:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406251709.i5PH9Mg15530@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 251708 SWOMCD SPC MCD 251708 NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-251915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1418 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1208 PM CDT FRI JUN 25 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN PA/CNTRL AND SRN NJ/MD/DE/AND NRN VA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 251708Z - 251915Z CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING SEVERE THREAT. WW COULD BECOME NECESSARY WITHIN NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. DAYTIME HEATING IS CONTRIBUTING TO DESTABILIZATION ALONG SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL NEW JERSEY INTO THE VICINITY OF THE PENNSYLVANIA/MARYLAND BORDER... AS WELL AS NEAR LEE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN MARYLAND AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA. LATEST OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE INDICATES MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE IS NOW IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG...AND INHIBITION HAS BECOME QUITE WEAK. MODELS SUGGEST DIFLUENT UPPER FLOW REGIME BETWEEN POLAR/SUBTROPICAL JETS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AS MAIN UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. CONVECTIVE INITIATION APPEARS POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND IN VICINITY OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES BY THE 19-20Z...AND SHOULD GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATE INTO LARGER CONVECTIVE CLUSTER LATER THIS EVENING AS UPPER FORCING INCREASES. THOUGH LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK...MODERATE TO STRONG MID/UPPER FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES FOR MID-LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION IN INITIAL ACTIVITY. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ALREADY APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE HAIL/ISOLATED DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS...BEFORE BROADER SWATH OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS BECOMES POSSIBLE WITH EVOLUTION OF CONVECTIVE CLUSTER. ..KERR.. 06/25/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...PBZ... 39657911 39847794 40047682 40237592 40667526 40597444 40067437 39587482 39207529 38577542 38247589 38127658 38417744 38887781 38977833 39187894 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 25 20:17:30 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 25 Jun 2004 15:17:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406252017.i5PKHqg01556@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 252014 SWOMCD SPC MCD 252014 NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-252215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1419 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0314 PM CDT FRI JUN 25 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN VA/MD/DE/SE PA/NJ/SE NY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 521... VALID 252014Z - 252215Z CONTINUE WW. INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING ALONG FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW YORK STATE THROUGH NORTHERN NEW JERSEY INTO SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MARGINAL HAIL THREAT IN STRONGEST CELLS NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...MOST EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING IN LEE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE WASHINGTON D.C./BALTIMORE AREAS...AND EVOLUTION OF MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTER APPEARS LIKELY NEAR/NORTHWEST OF BALTIMORE WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRENGTHENING SURFACE COLD POOL...WHICH COULD POSE INCREASING RISK OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS 40 TO 50 KT WEST SOUTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW AIDS PROPAGATION TOWARD THE PHILADELPHIA AREA THROUGH 26/00Z. ..KERR.. 06/25/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...CTP...LWX... 39167760 39687742 40227700 40457614 40307482 39527514 38787674 38907711 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 25 20:46:46 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 25 Jun 2004 15:46:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406252047.i5PKl2g13696@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 252044 SWOMCD SPC MCD 252043 NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-252245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1420 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0343 PM CDT FRI JUN 25 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL SC INTO CNTRL NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 252043Z - 252245Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND POSSIBILITY OF WW. AXIS OF STRONGER 2 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS /2-3 MB/ HAS DEVELOPED IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS... ROUGHLY WEST SOUTHWEST OF COLUMBIA INTO AREAS NORTHEAST OF FAYETTEVILLE. THIS APPEARS TO BE IN CONJUNCTION WITH MORE PROMINENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH GRADUALLY LIFTING AROUND SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON. SHEAR AXIS EXTENDS WEST SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF STATES...WITH INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ONGOING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. LEADING EDGE OF ACTIVITY IS SPREADING ACROSS EASTERN GEORGIA. THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEST OF AUGUSTA APPEAR TO BE NEAR LOW-LEVEL JET CORE...WHICH IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE SHIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS THROUGH THE 26/02-03Z TIME FRAME. LOW-LEVEL JET ON THE ORDER OF 20-25 KT IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...BUT WILL ENHANCE PROPAGATION OF CONVECTION THROUGH VERY WARM AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 90F AND MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG. THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER DOWNBURSTS...BUT SOMEWHAT BROADER SWATH OF CONVECTION APPROACHING SEVERE LIMITS APPEARS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COLUMBA SC AREA BY AROUND 26/00Z...POSSIBLY INTO AREAS SOUTH OF FAYETTEVILLE BY 26/02Z. ..KERR.. 06/25/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...FFC... 33648238 34318151 34788016 35367908 34617869 33917962 33418069 32588243 33288225 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 25 21:51:57 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 25 Jun 2004 16:51:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406252152.i5PLqEg08558@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 252151 SWOMCD SPC MCD 252151 FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-252315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1421 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0451 PM CDT FRI JUN 25 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MS...SRN AL...FL PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 252151Z - 252315Z ...DAMAGING WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY SQUALL LINE AS IT PROPAGATES EWD ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE ISSUED.. AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES HAS GENERATED A COLD POOL WHICH IN TURN APPEARS PARTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR RECENT EWD SURGE TO SQUALL LINE ACROSS SRN MS. LEADING EDGE OF THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY IS MOVING ENEWD AT ROUGHLY 35KT AND WILL SPREAD INTO SRN AL SHORTLY. DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS CONVECTION AS IT SPREADS ALONG OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTION. ..DARROW.. 06/25/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...LIX... 28719032 29668952 30678951 31448624 30698551 28558938 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jun 25 23:15:31 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 25 Jun 2004 18:15:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406252315.i5PNFlg03314@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 252315 SWOMCD SPC MCD 252314 NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-260015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1422 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0614 PM CDT FRI JUN 25 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 522... VALID 252314Z - 260015Z ...SQUALL LINE WILL PROGRESS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF WW IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO... SQUALL LINE HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE LAST HOUR...STRETCHING FROM FAIRFIELD COUNTY SC...SWD TO NEAR SAV. THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING NEWD AT ROUGHLY 30-35KT AND WILL SOON SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF WW. THERE REMAINS AN AXIS OF YET TO BE OVERTURNED BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY ALONG THE COAST WHICH SHOULD AID CONVECTION AS IT LIFTS NEWD. DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR THE MAIN THREAT. ..DARROW.. 06/25/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...JAX... 31008140 32708162 34348148 34627987 33827801 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 26 00:36:06 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 25 Jun 2004 19:36:06 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406260036.i5Q0aMg27265@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 260035 SWOMCD SPC MCD 260035 FLZ000-ALZ000-260130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1423 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0735 PM CDT FRI JUN 25 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AL...FL PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 523... VALID 260035Z - 260130Z ...A SLOW DECREASE IN INTENSITY IS OCCURRING ALONG LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEX... OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS STRUGGLING TO LIFT INLAND AND REMAINS ALONG THE COAST OF THE FL PANHANDLE. THIS IS PREVENTING A RETURN OF HIGHER INSTABILITY AHEAD OF SLOWLY WEAKENING SQUALL LINE. IT APPEARS THIS DOWNWARD TREND WILL CONTINUE...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS MAY YET ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ..DARROW.. 06/26/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB... 29288827 30338803 31378785 30578438 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 26 11:42:20 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 26 Jun 2004 06:42:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406261142.i5QBghg28537@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 261142 SWOMCD SPC MCD 261141 LAZ000-261245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1424 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0641 AM CDT SAT JUN 26 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH CENTRAL LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 261141Z - 261245Z ISOLATED THREAT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS ALONG THE SOUTH CENTRAL LA COAST...AS BOW ECHO /CURRENTLY LOCATED 20-40 MILES OFFSHORE THE LA COAST/ REACHES THIS AREA OF LA AROUND 12Z. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW A BOW ECHO ACROSS THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO MOVING TO THE NE AT 30-35 KT ALONG AN INSTABILITY GRADIENT. THIS HAS BEEN A LONG LIVED ORGANIZED LINE OF STORMS ACROSS THE WRN GULF DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. OBJECTIVE ANALYSES AND 09Z RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A FAIRLY STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER INLAND ACROSS SRN LA...SUGGESTING THE FORWARD SPEED OF THIS BOW ECHO WILL SLOW AND/OR BECOME ELEVATED UPON LANDFALL. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF STRONGER WINDS INLAND...BUT AN ISOLATED WIND THREAT MAY EXIST ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST PRIOR TO THIS OCCURRENCE. ..PETERS.. 06/26/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH... 29739315 30009293 29849219 29749133 29279153 29449255 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 26 16:48:39 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 26 Jun 2004 11:48:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406261648.i5QGmsg25494@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 261648 SWOMCD SPC MCD 261647 GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-261745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1425 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1147 AM CDT SAT JUN 26 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN FL...SRN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 261647Z - 261745Z ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF SRN GA AND NRN FL... STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE INTO SERN GA IS AIDING AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION SOUTH OF WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. RECENT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER SERN AL TO NEAR PFN CONTINUES TO SLOWLY EXPAND AND SPREAD EWD WITHIN MODEST WLY FLOW THROUGH MID LEVELS. LATEST THINKING IS THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS MAY GRADUALLY BUILD A COLD POOL SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO ENHANCE EWD PROPAGATION ALONG THE GA/FL BORDER. IF THIS OCCURS...AND A N-S LINEAR STRUCTURE EVOLVES...THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS WILL INCREASE. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED IF THIS SCENARIO CONTINUES TO UNFOLD. ..DARROW.. 06/26/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE... 31288587 31728381 32008122 30448162 30138604 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 26 19:40:26 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 26 Jun 2004 14:40:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406261940.i5QJefg11984@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 261937 SWOMCD SPC MCD 261936 GAZ000-FLZ000-262030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1426 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0236 PM CDT SAT JUN 26 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN GA...NRN FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 524... VALID 261936Z - 262030Z ...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SPREAD/DEVELOP ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF WW OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS... STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY HAS YET TO BE OVERTURNED FROM EXTREME SERN GA INTO NRN FL WHERE SBCAPE VALUES ARE IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG. CONTINUED EWD EXPANSION OF LARGE CLUSTER OF CONVECTION WILL SOON SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SERN GA. WITH TIME OUTFLOW FROM THIS ACTIVITY MAY SPREAD SWD INTO NRN FL WHERE NEW THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG NEW EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT. ..DARROW.. 06/26/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE... 31878400 31288141 30268183 30018421 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 26 19:51:21 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 26 Jun 2004 14:51:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406261951.i5QJpYg14711@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 261951 SWOMCD SPC MCD 261950 OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-262145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1427 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0250 PM CDT SAT JUN 26 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NM/ERN CO/WRN KS/OK PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 261950Z - 262145Z ...HIGH PLAINS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A WW... NUMEROUS STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS IN PART DUE TO ENHANCED LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SERN WY ATTM. RECENT VWP DATA FROM DDC SHOWS AROUND 30 KT OF FLOW IN THE LOWEST 3 KM. WHILE FLOW ACROSS NRN NM/WRN OK WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK...STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. WHILE WIND FIELDS MAINLY SUPPORT ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS WRN KS/SERN CO WITH FAVORABLY VEERED WIND PROFILES. WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY INCREASE IF CLUSTERS ARE ABLE TO ORGANIZE INTO LINE SEGMENTS. WW MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS AFTN. ..TAYLOR.. 06/26/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ... 34380223 34860422 37490438 38930271 39040149 38759996 36759957 34860058 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 26 21:58:47 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 26 Jun 2004 16:58:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406262200.i5QM03g22129@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 262158 SWOMCD SPC MCD 262157 GAZ000-FLZ000-262300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1428 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0457 PM CDT SAT JUN 26 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN GA AND THE NERN FL PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 524... VALID 262157Z - 262300Z ...THUNDERSTORMS...WITH MAINLY A WIND THREAT...CONTINUE FOR SERN GA AND THE NERN FL PANHANDLE...EAST OF A LINE FROM 45 NW AYS TO 45 SE OF VLD. CONVECTIVE LINE IS MOVING EWD AT AROUND 35 KT ACROSS THE AREA...WITH NUMEROUS STORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF LINE. A MESOHIGH AND COLD POOL HAS DEVELOPED BEHIND THE LINE..WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT A WIND THREAT AS STORMS MOVE EWD INTO STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPES NEAR 3000 J/KG. GIVEN THE STRONGER INSTABILITY EXTENDING SWD INTO THE CENTRAL PENINSULA...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF WW ALSO. HOWEVER....STRONGEST CONVECTIVE BAND SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE BY AROUND 00Z...SO WW IS EXPECTED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 00Z. ..IMY.. 06/26/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX... 29788133 30098261 31158257 31828235 31888143 30968133 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jun 26 22:45:57 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 26 Jun 2004 17:45:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406262246.i5QMkGg00849@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 262245 SWOMCD SPC MCD 262245 NMZ000-270015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1429 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0545 PM CDT SAT JUN 26 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN AND ERN NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 262245Z - 270015Z BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST OF LVS TO 4CR TO SOUTH OF TCS WILL PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS...WITH SOME SEVERE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...THE SEVERE GUSTS SHOULD BE BRIEF AND SPOTTY...SO A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH DEVELOPED EARLIER ON THE MOUNTAINS...ARE ROLLING SEWD INTO THE PLAINS AREAS OF SRN AND ERN NM. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...MLCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER ARE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS. TCS REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 43 KT DURING THE PAST HOUR AND WIND GUSTS FROM 30 TO 45 KT SHOULD BE COMMON WITH THESE STORMS. GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 KT ARE POSSIBLE... BUT SHOULD BE BRIEF AND ISOLATED. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN DISSIPATING DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE OUTFLOW DOMINATED STORMS EVENTUALLY CUT OFF THE FLOW TO THE UPDRAFTS. ..IMY.. 06/26/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ... 32320753 32840794 33660622 34480522 35540490 35740412 35430350 34310347 33220446 32080670 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 27 13:56:51 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 27 Jun 2004 08:56:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406271357.i5RDv1K24799@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 271356 SWOMCD SPC MCD 271355 LAZ000-TXZ000-271600- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1430 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0855 AM CDT SUN JUN 27 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX...LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 271355Z - 271600Z ...DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE INCREASING AHEAD OF SQUALL LINE APPROACHING THE SABINE RIVER OF EAST TX/WRN LA...WW MAY BE REQUIRED... AN INCREASING CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE GRADUALLY EXPANDED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS AND APPEAR TO BE EVOLVING TOWARD A MATURE MCS OVER SERN TX. A WELL DEFINED SQUALL LINE HAS DEVELOPED ALONG LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTION ARCING FROM ANGELINA COUNTY TX...INTO SAN JACINTO TX...MOVING ENEWD AT ROUGHLY 35KT. 12Z SOUNDING FROM LCH INDICATES A FAIRLY SHARP INSTABILITY GRADIENT ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF LA WITH STRONG INSTABILITY...SBCAPES IN EXCESS OF 3000J/KG...ONSHORE ROUGHLY 50-100MI. GIVEN THE SUSTAINED WARM ADVECTION PROFILES OBSERVED...THIS EVOLVING MCS SHOULD CONTINUE ITS EWD MOVEMENT INTO LA WITH A POSSIBLE UPWARD TREND AS BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL AND POSSIBLE WW. ..DARROW.. 06/27/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD... 31709525 32349279 31799162 30549206 30169535 30879592 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 27 16:31:18 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 27 Jun 2004 11:31:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406271631.i5RGVYK08096@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 271630 SWOMCD SPC MCD 271630 ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-271830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1431 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1130 AM CDT SUN JUN 27 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MS...SRN AL...WRN FL PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 271630Z - 271830Z ...STRONG WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY SQUALL LINE AS IT MOVES EWD INTO SRN AL/WRN FL PANHANDLE... TRAILING PORTIONS OF WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY BE INFLUENCING RECENT INCREASE IN EXPANDING CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER SRN MS. THIS ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AND SURGE EWD ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF AL AND WRN PORTIONS OF THE FL PANHANDLE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE INCREASINGLY WLY COMPONENT THROUGH A DEEP LAYER. STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AND HIGH INSTABILITY SUGGEST LEADING EDGE OF COMPLEX MAY PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS. WW MAY BE REQUIRED DOWNSTREAM IF THIS UPWARD TREND CONTINUES. ..DARROW.. 06/27/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB... 31668852 32008648 31588554 30748574 30648830 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 27 19:18:42 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 27 Jun 2004 14:18:42 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406271918.i5RJIqK27434@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 271916 SWOMCD SPC MCD 271916 ALZ000-MSZ000-272115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1432 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0216 PM CDT SUN JUN 27 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 271916Z - 272115Z ...INCREASING THREAT FOR STRONG/SEVERE WINDS NEXT 1-2 HOURS... SQUALL LINE EXTENDING FROM GLH/TVR/HEZ IS MOVING E/NEWD AROUND 35 KT INTO MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS SRN/CNTRL MS...WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG. RECENT GUST TO 46 KT AT TVR HAS BEEN THE STRONGEST GUST SO FAR ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LINE...AND THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS. EARLIER JACKSON SOUNDING AND CURRENT VAD WIND DATA SUGGESTS ABOUT 30-35 KT OF MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW THROUGH A DEEP LAYER. SYSTEM HAS A WELL DEVELOPED COLD POOL...AND THE COMBINATION OF FORWARD PROPAGATION AND ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW WILL SUSTAIN THE MCS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. A WW MAY BE REQUIRED SHORTLY. ..TAYLOR/DARROW.. 06/27/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BMX...JAN... 33099112 33498883 32438841 31918924 31569072 32489069  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 27 21:35:51 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 27 Jun 2004 16:35:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406272136.i5RLa2K07029@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 272132 SWOMCD SPC MCD 272132 OKZ000-TXZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-272330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1433 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0432 PM CDT SUN JUN 27 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM/PARTS OF THE OK TX PNHDLS AND WEST TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 272132Z - 272330Z TSTM ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE ERN PLAINS OF NM AND MOVE INTO PARTS OF WRN OK/TX PNHDLS. ACTVTY COULD THEN SPREAD AS FAR SOUTH AS WEST TX BY LATER IN THE EVENING. A WATCH MAY BE ISSUED SHORTLY. NUMEROUS TSTM HAVE FIRED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF ERN CO WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE ACROSS SRN CO AND NRN NM. THIS ACTIVITY HAS ACTED TO ENHANCE LOW LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT FROM NERN NM INTO THE NWRN TX PNHDL. AIRMASS TO THE SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S F AND DEWPOINTS NEARING 60F. STEEP LAPSE RATES...LIMITED INHIBITION...WEAK STEERING FLOW WILL AID ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS DEVELOPING SWD THROUGH THIS EVENING. OVERALL DEEP LAYER SPEED SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL N/NWLY IS FCST TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY AND RESULT IN SUFFICIENT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR FOR MULTICELL STORMS POSSIBLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED ALONG THERMAL GRADIENT/OUTFLOW. LARGE HAIL AND A FEW DAMAGING WIND EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE AND A WATCH MAY BE ISSUED SHORTLY. ..CARBIN.. 06/27/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DDC...LUB...AMA...MAF...PUB...ABQ... 35830444 37230214 36780163 34660178 33150234 32270303 32230382 33310511 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 27 21:41:49 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 27 Jun 2004 16:41:49 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406272142.i5RLg0K08548@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 272138 SWOMCD SPC MCD 272138 KSZ000-272345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1434 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0438 PM CDT SUN JUN 27 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 272138Z - 272345Z A BAND OF STRONG TSTMS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN KS ALONG A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY. AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY HAS BEEN ABLE TO HEAT UP INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX NEAR GREAT BEND KS...AND THIS MAY HELP ENHANCE STORMS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE STORMS HAVE PRIMARILY BEEN OUTFLOW DOMINANT...BUT IF THEY ARE ABLE TO FORM INTO A MORE LINEAR STRUCTURE...GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. HAVILAND AND HILLSBORO PROFILERS INDICATE AROUND 30-35 KT OF FLOW THROUGH ABOUT 6 KM...WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE WRN HIGH PLAINS. COLLIDING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR NEW STORMS...WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS. ..TAYLOR.. 06/27/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...DDC... 37139913 37849912 38599704 38399483 37009491 37059736 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 27 22:10:43 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 27 Jun 2004 17:10:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406272210.i5RMAsK16318@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 272208 SWOMCD SPC MCD 272208 GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-280015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1435 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0508 PM CDT SUN JUN 27 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN GA/NRN FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 272208Z - 280015Z MARGINALLY ORGANIZED LINE OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST FROM SERN AL INTO HOT AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS SITUATED ACROSS SRN GA. A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STORMS THIS EVENING. LONG-LIVED COMPLEX OF MULTICELL STORMS MOVING EAST INTO SWRN GA AT 35-40KT ATTM. AIRMASS AHEAD OF THIS CONVECTION WAS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. WLY FLOW OF 25-30KT THROUGH MUCH OF THE TROPOSPHERE WAS RESULTING IN LIMITED SHEAR BUT SUFFICIENT STEERING FLOW TO MAINTAIN LINEAR STORM MODE ACROSS SRN GA AND PARTS OF NRN FL THROUGH THE EVENING. A FEW LOCATIONS IN SRN GA HAVE HEATED INTO THE LOW 90S F RESULTING IN STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES THAT COULD SUPPORT ISOLD TO WIDELY SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS AS THE STORMS MOVE THROUGH. GIVEN WEAK SHEAR..LIMITED ORGANIZATION... AND DIURNAL TRENDS TOWARD WEAKENING INSTABILITY...A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. ..CARBIN.. 06/27/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX... 30618482 31718492 32508513 32798372 32718196 31548158 30658208 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jun 27 22:32:48 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 27 Jun 2004 17:32:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406272233.i5RMX3K22089@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 272231 SWOMCD SPC MCD 272231 ALZ000-MSZ000-280000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1436 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0531 PM CDT SUN JUN 27 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MS/WRN AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 525... VALID 272231Z - 280000Z PAIR OF BOW ECHOES HAVE BEEN MOVING ACROSS ERN MS AT 40-45KT AND WILL MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF WRN AL NEXT HOUR. THIS CONVECTION HAS SHOWN A SLIGHT DECREASE IN ORGANIZATION/STRENGTH WITH OUTFLOW FROM NRN BOW BECOMING MORE ALIGNED WITH DEEP LAYER WIND FIELD AND ENTIRE GUST FRONT OUTRUNNING DEEPER CONVECTIVE COLD POOL. FURTHERMORE... CONVECTION WAS BEGINNING TO ENCOUNTER MORE STABLE AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF STORMS NOW MOVING INTO SRN GA. SEVERE WIND POTENTIAL SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH IN AREAL COVERAGE AS THESE TRENDS CONTINUE WITH STORMS REACHING THE ERN EDGE OF THE WATCH BY 00Z/7PM CDT. ..CARBIN.. 06/27/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN... 31338955 33258925 33778709 32788690 32158700 31658710 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 28 00:21:06 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 27 Jun 2004 19:21:06 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406280021.i5S0LFK17488@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 280020 SWOMCD SPC MCD 280020 TXZ000-NMZ000-280145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1437 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0720 PM CDT SUN JUN 27 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM/WRN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 526... VALID 280020Z - 280145Z INTENSE CONVECTION CONTINUES SPREADING SWD ACROSS ERN NM AT UP TO 30KT. STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS NOTED ON CLOVIS BASE REFLECTIVITY AND HAS RESULTED IN WIND GUSTS OF 40-45KT UPON PASSAGE AT TCC. STRONGER WINDS ARE LIKELY NEAR GUST FRONT INTERSECTIONS WHERE UPDRAFT/DOWNDRAFT COUPLETS ARE LOCALLY MAXIMIZED AND THIS APPEARS TO BE SHOWN BY 50KT INBOUND VELOCITY ON CLOVIS RADAR DATA. LIFT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF DEEP COLD POOL SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROMOTE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS ERN NM AND PARTS OF WRN TX THIS EVENING. DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE WATCH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ..CARBIN.. 06/28/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ... 32990481 35290484 35590361 36030334 36040236 32990243 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 28 03:20:54 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 27 Jun 2004 22:20:54 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406280321.i5S3LFK00787@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 280320 SWOMCD SPC MCD 280319 TXZ000-NMZ000-280415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1438 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1019 PM CDT SUN JUN 27 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM/WRN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 526... VALID 280319Z - 280415Z LARGE AND WELL ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CONTINUES DEVELOPING SOUTH ACROSS ERN NM AND PARTS OF THE WRN TX PNHDL LATE THIS EVENING. SYSTEM APPEARS TO HAVE DEVELOPED A SUBSTANTIALLY DEEP COLD POOL WITH STRONG NLY FLOW PER TCU PROFILER. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY APPEARS TO HAVE RUN OUT AHEAD OF THE DEEPER CONVECTION AND WAS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS NRN/CNTRL CHAVES COUNTY AND SRN ROOSEVELT COUNTY...AS WELL AS INTO SRN BAILEY AND NRN COCHRAN COUNTIES IN THE WRN TX PNHDL. DEEPER ASCENT BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BE ABLE TO SUSTAIN VIGOROUS UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT AND WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO. A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED AFTER 04Z/10 PM MDT AS INCREASING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION BEGINS TO DAMPEN MESOSCALE ASCENT ALONG AND BEHIND THE OUTFLOW. AN ADDITIONAL WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED SOUTH OF THE ONGOING ACTIVITY. ..CARBIN.. 06/28/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ... 32910494 34840488 35050232 32980213 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 28 10:12:19 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 28 Jun 2004 05:12:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406281012.i5SACRK16254@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 281009 SWOMCD SPC MCD 281009 ALZ000-MSZ000-281115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1439 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0509 AM CDT MON JUN 28 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS EAST CENTRAL/NERN MS AND WEST CENTRAL/NWRN AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 281009Z - 281115Z ELEVATED BOWING LINE OF STORMS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL/NERN MS INTO WEST CENTRAL/NWRN AL BETWEEN 10-13Z. DOWNSTREAM STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE AREA OF CONCERN IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR...THUS LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS. WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. WV IMAGERY INDICATED A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY AT 0915Z...WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE LIKELY AIDING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM SERN AR INTO NRN MS. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED A BOWING LINE OF STORMS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS ACTIVITY...EXTENDING FROM PONTOTOC COUNTY TO ATTALA COUNTY MS AT 10Z. 20-25 KT SSWLY LLJ NOSING INTO THE WRN EDGE OF THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS APPEARS TO BE FEEDING THIS ACTIVITY WITH A MOIST/MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS LOCATED OVER ERN TX. 06Z RUC SUGGESTS STORMS WILL PERSIST WITH AN EWD MOVEMENT OF 30-40 KT WITH THE MEAN WIND...AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAINTAINS A LLJ INTO AND SOUTH OF THE COMPLEX. DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL BE LOW...GIVEN THE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER DOWNSTREAM INTO AL ATTM...LIMITING THE DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF STRONGER WINDS. HOWEVER...IF THIS COMPLEX MAINTAINS ITSELF AFTER THE ONSET OF SURFACE HEATING...THE RESULTANT AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION AND FORECAST WIND FIELD MAY INCREASE THE SEVERE POTENTIAL LATER THIS MORNING. ..PETERS.. 06/28/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN... 34248879 34288637 33668641 33118684 33118817 33168942 33668882 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 28 17:59:43 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 28 Jun 2004 12:59:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406281759.i5SHxn112755@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 281759 SWOMCD SPC MCD 281758 FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-282000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1440 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1258 PM CDT MON JUN 28 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...GULF COASTAL AREAS CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 281758Z - 282000Z LOCALLY VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND ISOLATED MICROBURSTS POSSIBLE ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS. WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN FLORIDA/SOUTHERN GEORGIA HAS DRIED/STABILIZED...REMAINDER OF THE WESTERN/CENTRAL GULF COASTAL AREAS FROM SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN ALABAMA REMAINS VERY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER/MID 70S. HEATING OF THIS WEAKLY CAPPED AIR MASS HAS CONTRIBUTED TO 100 MB MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 2500 J/KG...AND INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG SEA BREEZES PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. FURTHER INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED OVER INLAND AREAS ALONG OUTFLOWS THROUGH THE 20-21Z TIME FRAME. DUE TO WARM/MOIST SOUNDINGS...HAIL THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL...BUT HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT/LARGE CAPE WILL SUPPORT LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN CORES...WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING MICROBURSTS. WEAK FLOW/SHEAR REGIME WILL MINIMIZE OVERALL WIND THREAT...AND RISK OF DOWNBURSTS WILL DECREASE AS WIDESPREAD CONVECTION BEGINS TO COOL/STABILIZE BOUNDARY LAYER BY LATE AFTERNOON. ..KERR.. 06/28/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX... 27409742 28239862 28969835 30799751 31169502 31899365 32119154 32499060 32438921 32158778 31978676 31248615 31078486 30808399 30068415 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 28 21:27:39 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 28 Jun 2004 16:27:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406282127.i5SLRo111699@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 282127 SWOMCD SPC MCD 282126 IDZ000-NVZ000-ORZ000-282330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1441 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0426 PM CDT MON JUN 28 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN NV...ERN ORE...SRN ID CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 282126Z - 282330Z WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS ARE LIKELY OVER PARTS OF THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST THROUGH THE EVENING. A CONCENTRATED AREA OF WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL MAY EVOLVE ACROSS PARTS OF SRN ID AND A WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY. SERIES OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES CONTINUE TO LIFT NWD/NEWD AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF LARGE SCALE UPPER RIDGE SITUATED ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. ONE OF THESE FEATURES...CLEARLY EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...WAS MOVING OVER THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY BETWEEN WRN ID AND NERN ORE. SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE HAS ALLOWED CLEAR SKIES AND STRONG INSOLATION TO OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF SRN ID AND NRN NV. MEANWHILE...A BAND OF STRONGER S/SELY MID LEVEL FLOW WAS DEVELOPING NWD ACROSS NV. VIGOROUS CONVECTION WAS BEGINNING TO FIRE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NERN NV AND SWRN ID AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE INTO AN AXIS OF GREATER INSTABILITY AND DCAPE ACROSS NRN NV AND SRN ID OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL..LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NWD MOVING NV IMPULSE COUPLED WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN NUMEROUS STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS. ..CARBIN.. 06/28/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PIH...BOI...LKN... 41211806 42531877 43671831 44091792 44341652 43951427 42761308 41341511 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 28 22:04:44 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 28 Jun 2004 17:04:44 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406282204.i5SM4o125874@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 282204 SWOMCD SPC MCD 282203 GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-282330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1442 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0503 PM CDT MON JUN 28 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 282203Z - 282330Z ...DAMAGING WINDS MAY SPREAD INTO SRN GA BY 00Z... STORMS WHICH FORMED ALONG THE GULFBREEZE EARLIER THIS AFTN HAVE BEEN SLOWLY ORGANIZING...AND MOVING NEWD TOWARD AN AREA OF STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW. STORMS CURRENTLY MOVING NEWD AROUND 20-25 KT WILL ARRIVE NEAR THE GA/AL BORDER BY AROUND 23Z. THE AIRMASS ACROSS SRN GA HAS DESTABILIZED WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG AND TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS OF 20 DEGREES. VAD WIND DATA FROM MONTGOMERY SHOWS AROUND 30-35 KT OF WLY FLOW AROUND 3 KM. A BOUNDARY RECENTLY PASSED THROUGH MACON/COLUMBUS...WITH NEW CONVECTION DEVELOPING. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THESE STORMS WILL POSE A DAMAGING WIND THREAT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A WW MAY BE REQUIRED. ..TAYLOR/CARBIN.. 06/28/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX... 30688330 30768495 32508552 32758368 32598155 30588222 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jun 28 22:35:40 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 28 Jun 2004 17:35:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406282235.i5SMZn104332@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 282235 SWOMCD SPC MCD 282234 TXZ000-282330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1443 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0534 PM CDT MON JUN 28 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 282234Z - 282330Z INTENSE CONVECTION ACROSS POLK...TRINITY...AND ANGELINA COUNTIES APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING INVOF DEVELOPING MESOLOW ALONG REMNANT SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY AND GULF BREEZE BOUNDARY COLLISION. VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS COUPLED WITH MESO/STORMSCALE FORCING AND STRONG UPDRAFT STRETCHING MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLD/BRIEF TORNADO WITH THIS CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. GIVEN OVERALL WEAK SHEAR AND FORCING ACROSS THE REGION...AND MOSTLY RANDOM NATURE OF MOST ONGOING CONVECTION...A WATCH IS NOT BEING ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. ..CARBIN.. 06/28/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX... 30499413 30469487 30709494 31279486 31389445 31419376 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 29 09:41:04 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 29 Jun 2004 04:41:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406290941.i5T9fF109160@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 290940 SWOMCD SPC MCD 290939 OKZ000-TXZ000-291245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1444 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0439 AM CDT TUE JUN 29 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS W-CENTRAL/NW TX...SERN TX PANHANDLE...SW OK CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 290939Z - 291245Z CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS FCST TO INCREASE FROM S-N ACROSS ROUGHLY 100 NM WIDE SWATH FROM SJT AREA NNEWD PAST CDS...TO I-40 AREA FROM CSM WWD INTO ERN PANHANDLE. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP N OF ONGOING CLUSTER OVER COKE/TOM GREEN/IRION/STERLING COUNTIES TX AND MOVE GENERALLY NWD...RESULTING IN TRAINING OF PRECIP CORES THAT MAY PRODUCE 2-3 INCH/HOUR RAIN RATES. MIDLEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS EVIDENT OVER TX/NM BORDER AREA BETWEEN HOB-TCC...WITH PLUME OF RELATIVELY ENHANCED LOW LEVEL WAA AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO IS E -- ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA. CORRIDOR OF 20-25 KT 850 MB FLOW IS EVIDENT IN VWP/PROFILER ANALYSIS FROM SJT AREA NWD...CORRESPONDING WELL TO RUC PROGS OF MAXIMIZED ISENTROPIC ASCENT...MIDLEVEL UVV AND 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER THIS AREA. MODIFIED RAOBS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE VERY MOIST FOR THIS REGION WITH HIGH RH THROUGHOUT TROPOSPHERE...ROUGHLY 1.75 INCH PW...AND 850 MB DEW POINTS OF 15-16 DEG C. DESPITE NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC DEEP-LAYER LAPSE RATES...ELEVATED MUCAPE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 700-1000 J/KG IN PRECONVECTIVE AIR MASS WITH MINIMAL CINH. THIS SUPPORTS POTENTIAL FOR MUCH MORE DENSE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THAN AT PRESENT...INCLUDING SCATTERED-NUMEROUS TSTMS. ..EDWARDS.. 06/29/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF... 31590127 33500139 35270094 35349998 35329923 33749899 31809965 31190016 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 29 20:06:05 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 29 Jun 2004 15:06:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406292006.i5TK67111344@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 292005 SWOMCD SPC MCD 292004 MIZ000-WIZ000-292200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1446 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0304 PM CDT TUE JUN 29 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN WI...NRN LWR MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 292004Z - 292200Z WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED. AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGS ACROSS MANITOBA/WESTERN ONTARIO... LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENT ZONE IN WAKE OF DOWNSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH... MIGRATING TO THE LEE OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...IS EXPECTED TO BECOME FOCUS FOR INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG AN AXIS SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF DULUTH MN INTO THE HOUGHTON LAKE MI AREA IS MAINTAINING MID 50S DEW POINTS...AND SURFACE HEATING HAS CONTRIBUTED TO NARROW CORRIDOR OF WEAK TO MODERATE DESTABILIZATION. LATEST OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE SUGGEST MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE HAS INCREASED IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG. GIVEN WEAK CAPPING... THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN NUMBER THROUGH THE 21-23Z TIME FRAME. THOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT STRONG...IT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO ENHANCE RISK OF LARGE HAIL WITH ISOLATED STRONGER CELLS EMBEDDED WITHIN FAVORABLY COOL CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME. ..KERR.. 06/29/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX... 46169040 46118935 45668827 45198686 45118597 44428407 42938264 43098465 44108839 44638964 44909094 45009187 45589103 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 29 20:33:05 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 29 Jun 2004 15:33:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406292033.i5TKX7123901@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 292031 SWOMCD SPC MCD 292031 NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-292300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1447 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0331 PM CDT TUE JUN 29 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NEB PANHANDLE/W-CENTRAL NEB...AND SWRN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 292031Z - 292300Z ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE BY EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS W-CENTRAL NEB/ERN NEB PANHANDLE...AND SWRN SD. PRIMARY THREAT WILL LIKELY BE LARGE HAIL...WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. WW MAY BE REQUIRED. AT 20Z...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT BOUNDARY LAYER CU HAVE INCREASED ALONG SURFACE CONVERGENCE ZONE NEAR THE SWRN SD/NWRN NEB BORDER. ISOLATED TSTMS HAVE ALSO FORMED ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS. DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA HAS DESTABILIZED THE BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH 100MB MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG. CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS MINIMAL. DESPITE ABSENCE OF LARGE-SCALE SUPPORT FOR ASCENT...WITH 500MB RIDGE IN PLACE...BOUNDARY LAYER FORCING MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. NWLY SFC-6M SHEAR AROUND 30KT WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN SOME ROTATIONAL CHARACTERISTICS TO STRONGER CELLS...WHICH WILL ALSO ENHANCE THREAT FOR LARGER HAIL. WBZ HEIGHTS AROUND 8 KFT AND MODERATE INSTABILITY ALSO SUPPORT LARGE HAIL. MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS /AROUND 30F/ MAY RESULT IN VERY ISOLATED DOWNDRAFTS...WITH WINDS LOCALLY APPROACHING SEVERE LIMITS. ..BANACOS.. 06/29/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR...BOU...CYS... 41080287 41710283 42270296 42980325 44120401 44480384 44260181 44170058 43530008 42949982 41639970 40939990 40780092 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jun 29 23:55:51 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 29 Jun 2004 18:55:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200406292355.i5TNtr103953@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 292355 SWOMCD SPC MCD 292354 NEZ000-SDZ000-300100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1448 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0654 PM CDT TUE JUN 29 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN SD...W-CENTRAL NEB...AND THE NEB PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 527... VALID 292354Z - 300100Z WW 527 CONTINUES IN EFFECT. AT 2335Z...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK AND DISORGANIZED FROM SRN SHANNON COUNTY SD SWD TO NEAR I-80 IN THE NEB PANHANDLE. STORMS MOVEMENT WAS GENERALLY SWD/SEWD AROUND 5KT. DESPITE MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH 100MB MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG...ABSENCE OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING HAS BEEN A HINDRANCE TO CONVECTIVE INTENSITY TO THIS POINT. MERRIMAN NEB PROFILER INDICATES 30KT OF SFC-6KM SHEAR...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION GIVEN STRONGER UPDRAFTS. HOWEVER...PRESENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST ACTIVITY MAY NOT BECOME VIGOROUS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SEVERE HAIL. IF INTENSITY TRENDS DO NOT CHANGE...WW CANCELLATION MAY OCCUR PRIOR TO 4Z. ..BANACOS.. 06/29/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS... 41090058 41080327 44010382 44020100 WWWW