[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 302225
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302225 
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-310030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1803
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0525 PM CDT FRI JUL 30 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR WRN OK/SWRN KS/TX PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 302225Z - 310030Z

...ISOLATED SVR STORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL
THE MAIN THREAT...

TOWERING CUMULUS/CBS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG A BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM
GAG INTO NW OK AND ALONG A DRYLINE EXTENDING INTO THE TX PANHANDLE
PER LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME MODERATELY
UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG. STRONG CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION HAS THUS FAR PREVENTED ANY DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS...BUT IT
NOW APPEARS CAP IS WEAKENING...SO ANY STORMS WHICH CAN DEVELOP MAY
BECOME SEVERE. FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINED WITH MODERATELY
STRONG NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS WITH THE MAIN
THREAT FROM LARGE HAIL. LOCAL HAIL MODEL SUGGESTS THAT HAIL UP TO 2
INCHES IS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. 

COVERAGE OF STORMS SHOULD BE ISOLATED...SO A WW MAY NOT BE
NECESSARY.

..TAYLOR/PETERS.. 07/30/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...

38610184 37719880 36439871 35099945 34750115 36480181
37880232 

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