[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 291854
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291853 
NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-292130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1792
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0153 PM CDT THU JUL 29 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SE WY...WRN NEB...NE CO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 291853Z - 292130Z

RISK OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS APPEARS LIKELY TO INCREASE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS.  TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF WW.

FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO EASTERN
MONTANA.  THIS FEATURE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN MODERATELY STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW REGIME WHICH EXTENDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.  AXIS OF
STRONGER 2 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS HAS DEVELOPED FROM WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL WYOMING AHEAD OF UPPER SYSTEM...AND WILL
GRADUALLY DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD WITH STRONGER LOW/MID-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION REGIME THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

STRENGTHENING LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...
STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND WEAK LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION ARE ALL
CONTRIBUTING TO DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS.  BY PEAK HEATING...RELATIVELY DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH
CAPE OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG...AND MINIMAL INHIBITION...APPEARS LIKELY
FROM PARTS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND
NORTHEAST COLORADO.  THIS SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF VIGOROUS
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN ENVIRONMENT WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR 
UPDRAFT ROTATION.

INITIATION APPEARS POSSIBLE BY 20-21Z NORTH/NORTHEAST OF CHEYENNE
INTO THE SCOTTSBLUFF/SIDNEY NEB AND AKRON CO AREAS.  SUBSEQUENT
EVOLUTION/INTENSIFICATION APPEARS LIKELY...WITH A FEW SEVERE STORMS 
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS... SLOWLY
DEVELOPING SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

..KERR.. 07/29/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...

42830543 42960405 42640301 41800211 40570208 40140291
40500341 41220364 41480418 41940421 

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