[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 262310
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262310 
AZZ000-270115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1780
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0610 PM CDT MON JUL 26 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SCNTRL/SW AZ

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL 

VALID 262310Z - 270115Z

TSTMS MAY EVOLVE SSW INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SCNTRL/SW AZ
THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WITH ISOLD MICROBURSTS POSSIBLE...IN
ADDITION TO A LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THREAT. A SEVERE WATCH IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

TSTMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF
CNTRL AZ. OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...ORGANIZED MESOSCALE COLD POOLS
AMIDST MARGINAL STEERING FLOW -- CHARACTERIZED BY MEAN N/NW WINDS
AROUND 10 KTS -- WILL LIKELY SUPPORT A PROPAGATION OF ISOLD TSTMS
ONTO THE DESERT FLOOR. OBSERVED 21Z PHX SOUNDING MODIFIED FOR 23Z
AMBIENT SFC CONDITIONS PORTRAYS AROUND 1100 J/KG MEAN MIXED CAPE IN
THE LOWER DESERTS. WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER /40-45F DELTA SFC T-TD/
AND DOWNDRAFT CAPE AROUND 1200 J/KG SUGGESTS ISOLD
MICROBURST/DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL.

IN ADDITION...MOIST AIRMASS /1.38 IN PW PER 21Z PHX RAOB/ AND
RELATIVELY SLOW STORM MOTIONS WILL SUPPORT A LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT.

..GUYER.. 07/26/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...VEF...

34181290 33831161 33091066 32551068 32621155 32801232
33341345 33881412 34401378 

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