[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 261917
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261916 
WYZ000-MTZ000-UTZ000-IDZ000-NVZ000-262145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1778
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0216 PM CDT MON JUL 26 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN ID...WCNTRL WY AND NRN UT

CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS 

VALID 261916Z - 262145Z

TSTMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AND COULD PRODUCE ISOLD SEVERE WIND
GUSTS/HAIL ACROSS CNTRL/ERN ID AND NRN UT.  ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO
SPREAD INTO WRN WY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  A WW IS NOT WARRANTED
GIVEN ISOLD SEVERE THREATS.

SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL-DEVELOPED VORTICITY MAX CENTERED
VCNTY NERN OWYHEE COUNTY ID...MOVING EAST AT 30 KTS.  EXTRAPOLATION
HAS THIS FEATURE INTO ERN ID BY 00Z.  TSTMS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN
FORMING OVER NERN NV AND PARTS OF CNTRL ID IN THE CHALLIS NATIONAL
FOREST AREA.  SATELLITE DERIVED GOES PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
SUGGEST THAT MOISTURE HAS INCREASED IN THE LAST FEW HOURS...JUST
OVER AN INCH ACROSS NRN UT AND CNTRL/SRN ID.  THOUGH CLOUDS HAVE
KEPT INSOLATION TO A PREMIUM ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
MORNING...AIR MASS HAS BEGUN TO DESTABILIZE JUST AHEAD OF THE
LOW/MIDLEVEL IMPULSE AND LI/S ARE NEAR MINUS 3 DEGREES C.

LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE VORTICITY MAX IS
MODULATING/ENHANCING THE DIURNAL CYCLE.  THOUGH THE WIND FLOW
THROUGH THE TROPOSPHERE IS RATHER WEAK...AS THE VORT MAX CONTINUES
EWD...SEMI-ORGANIZED MAINLY PULSE TSTMS MAY GIVE LOCALLY SEVERE WIND
GUSTS OR HAIL.

..RACY.. 07/26/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RIW...TFX...SLC...PIH...MSO...BOI...LKN...

41601439 43651469 44461205 44521026 43300969 41531124 

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