[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 212303
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212302 
MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-220100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1755
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0602 PM CDT WED JUL 21 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SD...NRN AND WRN MN...NERN NEB...NWRN IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 662...

VALID 212302Z - 220100Z

ADDITIONAL WW COULD BE REQUIRED FOR ERN SD INTO WRN MN BY 2330Z.

FORCING REMAINS WEAK ON THE LARGE SCALE...WITH ESTABLISHED STORMS
SURVIVING OFF OF SR INFLOW AND NEW STORMS FORMING ON OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES.  MOST STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER NRN MN...AS LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION
BRINGS IN MORE STABLE AIR FROM THE NW AND AIR MASS BEGINS TO
STABILIZE AHEAD OF CURRENT STORMS.  

THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR CONTINUED SEVERE WILL BE OVER ERN SD AND
SWRN MN...WHERE STRONGER INSTABILITY EXISTS WITH MLCAPE OF 2000-3000
J/KG...AS WELL AS STRONGER WIND FIELDS IN THE LOWEST 3 KM FOR
STRONGER STORM RELATIVE INFLOW.

..JEWELL.. 07/21/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...DMX...FGF...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...

46159344 44789463 44249475 43049461 41889550 41869752
42369882 42979935 44019846 45219773 46759594 48179626
48989572 48979520 49399515 49369490 48849464 48559353
48589311 

WWWW