[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 152204
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152204 
OKZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-152330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1693
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0504 PM CDT THU JUL 15 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN CO SEWD ACROSS WRN KS INTO N-CNTRL OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 152204Z - 152330Z

POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST
WITH DEVELOPING STORMS.

RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS STORMS DEVELOPING FROM
PORTIONS OF NERN CO SEWD INTO SWRN KS /FORD COUNTY/. 21Z
MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING ALONG A
BOUNDARY THAT SEPARATES HOT...DEEPLY-MIXED AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER
SWRN KS/WRN OK FROM COMPARATIVELY COOLER AND MORE MOIST AIR RESIDING
FROM CNTRL NEB/CNTRL KS INTO ERN OK. THOUGH NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW
REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK ACROSS THIS AREA AND GENERALLY LESS THAN
20-25KTS...PRESENCE OF SLY/SELY BOUNDARY-LAYER WINDS AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY /I.E. MLCAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG/ SHOULD SUPPORT SOME
STORM ORGANIZATION WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING
WINDS/HAIL.

A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. HOWEVER...IF IT APPEARS THAT STORMS
MAY MERGE INTO ORGANIZED CLUSTERS OR POSSIBLY A FORWARD-PROPAGATING
MCS...WW MAY BE REQUIRED.

..MEAD.. 07/15/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...LBF...DDC...GLD...AMA...BOU...

40640277 40660201 37319811 36639739 36629966 40590404 

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