[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 151953
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151953 
NEZ000-KSZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-152230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1691
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0253 PM CDT THU JUL 15 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN WY/WRN NEB/NERN CO/NW KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL 

VALID 151953Z - 152230Z

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED ACROSS MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE...WITH A FEW STORMS ACROSS THE ERN CO
PLAINS/NW KS. WIND SHIFT LINE IS NOTED ACROSS NEB FROM BFF TO ODX
AND IS ALSO PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND STORM
FORMATION. UPSLOPE FLOW OF INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR WITH MLCAPE
VALUES NEARING 2000 J/KG WILL CONTRIBUTE TO CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF
STORMS INTO THIS EVENING. UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS RELATIVELY WEAK ACROSS
CO/WY BUT ACTIVITY MAY TEND TO CONGEAL INTO LARGER MASS OF
CONVECTION AND MOVE EAST TOWARD GREATER INSTABILITY NEXT FEW HOURS.
AS THIS PROCESS UNFOLDS...MICROBURST WINDS AND/OR HAIL POTENTIAL
WILL INCREASE WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS.

GIVEN LACK OF STRONGER FLOW ALOFT AND RELATIVELY STRONG LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE ONGOING STORMS...HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING WILL
ALSO BE A THREAT.

..TAYLOR/CARBIN.. 07/15/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...RIW...

38660273 39380538 42640631 43070327 42960154 41940138
39250076 

WWWW