[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 151813
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151812 
ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-OKZ000-152015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1688
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0112 PM CDT THU JUL 15 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK/AR/MS/WRN AL/NERN LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 151812Z - 152015Z

....STORMS WILL BE DEVELOPING THIS AFTN IN A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
WITH SOME STRONG/SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE...

LATEST SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SE KS NEAR CNU
SEWD ALONG A FYV/HOT/TYR/MGM LINE. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
CUMULUS DEVELOPING ALONG THIS AXIS. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW/MID 70S
ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 3500 J/KG. GIVEN
LITTLE TO NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...STORMS WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP
ESPECIALLY WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED. THIS REGION IS
RIGHT ON THE SWRN FRINGE OF THE STRONGER NWLY FLOW ALOFT. HASKELL
OK/SRN MO PROFILER DATA INDICATE AROUND 25-35 KT OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WEAKENS WITH SWD EXTENT PER THE
18Z JACKSON MS SOUNDING. WITH DOWNDRAFT CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000
J/KG...THREAT OVER THE GULF COAST STATES SHOULD BE FROM MICROBURST
WINDS.

WHILE STORMS MAY NOT BE WELL ORGANIZED INITIALLY...THE LACK OF
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND ABUNDANT INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR
NUMEROUS STORMS. CELL/BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY
INTENSE UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND.

..TAYLOR.. 07/15/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...

36319501 34899511 32309238 31438653 32998650 34909082
36459402 

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