[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 150049
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150049 
NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-150215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1675
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0749 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN CO/

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 634...

VALID 150049Z - 150215Z

...THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES MAINLY ACROSS WRN SD...

STEEP LAPSE RATES OF 8.5 C/KM COMBINED WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR
PER 00Z RAPID CITY SOUNDING SUGGEST THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES AS OF 0030Z WERE STILL
IN THE 90S WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM ERN MT
TO THE BLACK HILLS/ERN WY. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
TOWERING CUMULUS ARE DEVELOPING...AND SHOULD ANY STORMS FORM...THEY
WILL TEND TO BECOME SUPERCELLS. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE FARTHER SOUTH
IN THE WATCH MAY BE DIMINISHING...AND CERTAINLY WITH THE LOSS OF
DIURNAL HEATING...WE EXPECT A DOWNWARD TREND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 2/3
OF THE WW. 00Z SOUNDING FROM DENVER CONFIRMS THAT MIDLEVEL FLOW IS
QUITE WEAK...AND SO LONGTERM STORM ORGANIZATION IS NOT LIKELY.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME STRONG STORMS SOUTHEAST OF DENVER NEAR LIC
THAT HAVE BEEN PULSING...SO ISOLATED HAIL/WIND IS POSSIBLE FOR
ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO.

..TAYLOR.. 07/15/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...BYZ...

39110217 39110498 45780576 45720259 

WWWW