[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 141917
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141916 
NYZ000-PAZ000-142045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1667
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0216 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...S CNTRL NY

CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS 

VALID 141916Z - 142045Z

A MARGINAL SEVERE WIND THREAT IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS
OVER PORTIONS OF S CNTRL NY.  LEADING EDGE OF SQUALL LINE EXTENDS
FROM ITH TO BGM AND IS MOVING EAST NORTHEAST AROUND 35 KTS.  STORMS
ARE MOVING OUT OF INSTABILITY AXIS INTO MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
MLCAPE VALUES AOB 500 J/KG.  RECENT RADAR VELOCITY IMAGERY INDICATES
AROUND 35 KTS OF FLOW WHICH WILL POSE A MARGINAL WIND THREAT. 
HOWEVER...SFC PRESSURE FALLS AHEAD OF THE LINE REFLECT THE LARGE
SCALE LIFT ACROSS THE AREA.  ADDITIONALLY...BGM VAD PROFILE SHOWS
AROUND 35-40 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SO LINE WILL LIKELY REMAIN
ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES EASTWARD.  A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

..LEVIT/TAYLOR.. 07/14/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...

42867630 42547648 42047648 41597642 41517608 41517560
41497485 41867451 42417444 42857467 43077529 43047587 

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