[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 101919
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101919 
NDZ000-102145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1593
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0219 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL THROUGH ERN ND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 101919Z - 102145Z

PARTS OF CNTRL ND ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION
WITHIN THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. ONCE STORMS DEVELOP...THEY WILL LIKELY
BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREAT. HOWEVER...SOME THREAT
FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY ALSO EXIST. A WW MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS OR ONCE IT BECOMES MORE CLEAR WHEN
STORMS MIGHT DEVELOP.

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON A QUASISTATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM SW ND
SEWD THROUGH CNTRL AND SERN SD. RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE EXISTS
N AND E OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH AN AXIS OF NEAR 70 DEWPOINTS EXTENDING
THROUGH CNTRL AND ERN ND. HOWEVER...THE 18Z RAOB FROM BISMARK SHOWS
THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO BE RATHER SHALLOW ACROSS CNTRL ND AND SUGGESTS
DEWPOINTS MIGHT MIX INTO THE LOWER 60S AS SURFACE HEATING CONTINUES.
THE DEEPER MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER EXISTS FARTHER EAST INTO THE ERN
DAKOTAS...AND SELY LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES FROM THIS AREA MIGHT HELP
TO OFFSET THE EFFECT OF MIXING SOMEWHAT ACROSS CNTRL ND. THE NRN
EXTENTION OF A ZONE OF MID LEVEL ASCENT APPEARS TO BE SPREADING INTO
CNTRL SD. HOWEVER...THE BISMARK 18Z RAOB SHOWS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
LIKELY REMAIN CAPPED TO DEEP CONVECTION UNTIL SURFACE TEMPERATURES
CLIMB THROUGH THE UPPER 80S. ONCE STORMS DEVELOP...THEY SHOULD
INTENSIFY AS THEY SPREAD EAST TOWARD ERN ND WHERE RICHER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...LOWER LCLS AND STRONGER INSTABILITY WILL EXIST. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR OVER THIS AREA WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. THE
STRONGEST LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS CNTRL ND
WHERE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS BACKED TO ELY DUE IN PART TO
INFLUENCE OF THERMAL LOW OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. THUS THE TORNADO
THREAT WILL DEPEND IN PART ON THE ABILITY TO MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND LOW LCLS IN THIS AREA AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES.

..DIAL.. 07/10/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

46089888 46380166 47450163 47789990 47909791 46549749 

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