[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 071720
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071719 
MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-IAZ000-071815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1557
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1219 PM CDT WED JUL 07 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NEB/NERN KS/FAR NWRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 071719Z - 071815Z

ELEVATED STORMS /ROOTED IN THE 650-700 MB LAYER PER 12Z LBF RAOB AND
15Z RUC POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS/ MAY PRODUCE A FEW MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL EVENTS ACROSS SERN NEB INTO NERN KS...AND FAR NWRN MO
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

16Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM WEST CENTRAL
NEB SEWD TO ERN KS...WITH THE AIR MASS ACROSS SWRN NEB/WRN KS HAVING
BECOME MODERATELY TO VERY UNSTABLE.  REGIONAL RADARS SHOW A CLUSTER
OF STORMS MOVING SEWD ACROSS ERN NEB /ALONG AND TO THE COOL SIDE OF
THE SURFACE WARM FRONT/.  25 KT SWLY LLJ EXTENDING FROM WRN KS TO
ERN NEB/NERN KS WILL MAINTAIN A FEED OF UNSTABLE AIR INTO THESE
ELEVATED STORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AREA VADS/WIND PROFILER DATA
INDICATED FAVORABLE DIRECTIONAL AND DEEP LAYER SPEED SHEAR WITHIN
THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER FOR ELEVATED SUPERCELLS.  COMBINED WITH
SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY...STORMS SHOULD BE ABLE TO SUSTAIN
ROTATING UPDRAFTS WITH AN ISOLATED HAIL THREAT.

..PETERS.. 07/07/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...

38819710 40529847 41649801 41549658 40909577 39619475
39029559 

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