[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 041832
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041831 
TNZ000-NCZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-042030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1500
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0131 PM CDT SUN JUL 04 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/MIDDLE TN...NRN MS...NRN AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 548...

VALID 041831Z - 042030Z

CONTINUE REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW.  RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS WITH
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER MAY PERSIST BEYOND 21Z...AND NEW WW MAY BECOME
NECESSARY SOUTHEASTWARD FROM CENTRAL ALABAMA INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS.

LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED...BUT SURFACE
COLD POOL REMAINS QUITE STRONG...AND 40 TO 50 KT WESTERLY LOWER/MID
TROPOSPHERIC JET IS STILL EVIDENT TO THE REAR OF INTENSE SQUALL
LINE.  SLIGHT BACKING OF LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF LINE FROM A
SOUTHWESTERLY TO A MORE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT HAS
OCCURRED...AND...GIVEN RAPID EASTWARD MOTION OF COLD
POOL...CONVERGENCE ALONG GUST FRONT SHOULD REMAIN STRONG AT LEAST
ANOTHER FEW HOURS.  

TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED TO 90F ALONG AN AXIS FROM SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS INTO NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...WHERE INSTABILITY HAS BECOME
MAXIMIZED PAST HOUR OR TWO...WITH MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE NOW IN
EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG.  THIS MAY SUPPORT A SOUTHWARD SHIFT TO
STRONGEST CONVECTION ACROSS THE TUPELO MS/FLORENCE AL AREAS THROUGH
20Z...BEFORE ACTIVITY CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND
NORTHERN ALABAMA THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

..KERR.. 07/04/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

35188869 36288809 36238730 36308653 36228524 36348318
34348343 33668519 33188813 33369007 33969074 

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