[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 041508
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041508 
PAZ000-NYZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-041745-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1495
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1008 AM CDT SUN JUL 04 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OH/PARTS OF NRN WV/WRN PA/WRN NY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 041508Z - 041745Z

CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING SEVERE THREAT
AND POSSIBILITY OF WW...WHICH COULD BECOME NECESSARY WITHIN NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS.

SLOW INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ONGOING TO THE WEST OF THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THIS IS BEING SUPPORTED BY FORCING
AHEAD OF MID/UPPER TROUGH AXIS...WHICH IS LIFTING OUT OF THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY...AND PROGGED TO CONTINUE INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES/UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF TROUGH AXIS INTO THE APPALACHIANS
REGION IS VERY MOIST AND CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE...WITH SURFACE DEW
POINTS CLOSE TO 70F...AND NEAR SATURATION THROUGH MUCH OF THE
TROPOSPHERE.  WHILE WARM PROFILES AND RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR PROFILES
SHOULD MINIMIZE HAIL POTENTIAL...HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT OF
AIR WILL SUPPORT HEAVY RAIN CORES WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
DOWNBURSTS.

DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WILL BE ENHANCED A BIT BY 20 TO 30 KT
SOUTHERLY MEAN LOWER/MID-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW REGIME SHIFTING AHEAD OF
TROUGH AXIS...FROM PARTS OF EASTERN OHIO/NORTHWESTERN WEST VIRGINIA
THROUGH WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON.  THREAT
SHOULD BE GREATEST DURING/SHORTLY AFTER PEAK HEATING HOURS  ...WITH
ACTIVITY APPROACHING/PROGRESSING THROUGH THE BUFFALO/ PITTSBURGH
AREAS BY 20-21Z.

WHILE SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL...MOIST/BUOYANT
BOUNDARY LAYER MAY ALSO BE SUPPORTIVE OF VERY ISOLATED TORNADOES.

..KERR.. 07/04/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...

43267782 40827808 39527994 38528246 40538132 41828094 

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