From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 4 06:01:25 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 04 Jul 2004 01:01:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407030602.i6362I117292@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 030601 SWOMCD SPC MCD 030601 OKZ000-TXZ000-030730- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1479 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0101 AM CDT SAT JUL 03 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN TX...SWRN TO ERN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 030601Z - 030730Z RAPID STRONG TO SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SWRN OK AND NWRN TX MAY REQUIRE A SEVERE TSTM WATCH SHORTLY. TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED RAPIDLY ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DEVELOPING SEWD INTO VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND STRENGTHENING SWLY LLJ ACROSS SWRN OK EARLY TODAY. NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW ATOP INCREASING SWLY LLJ WAS RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY PARAMETERS SUGGEST LARGE HAIL IS LIKELY FROM THIS ACTIVITY AS IT SPREADS/DEVELOPS ESEWD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. FURTHERMORE...THE OUTFLOW INTERSECTS THE LARGER SCALE FRONTAL ZONE/WIND SHIFT ACROSS NCNTRL OK WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION CONTINUING ALONG LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE ZONE FROM NERN OK INTO THE OZARKS. STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO INCREASE/BACKBUILD ACROSS PARTS OF ERN OK THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND THIS AREA WILL ALSO BE MONITORED FOR A PSBL WATCH. ..CARBIN.. 07/03/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...LUB...AMA... 34419539 34159671 34029818 33909888 34800049 35409901 36249790 36329509 35209488 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 4 08:20:09 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 04 Jul 2004 03:20:09 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407030821.i638L2122607@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 030820 SWOMCD SPC MCD 030819 ARZ000-OKZ000-031045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1480 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0319 AM CDT SAT JUL 03 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK/WRN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 030819Z - 031045Z INTENSE TSTMS CONTINUE TO BACKBUILD ACROSS NERN OK EARLY TODAY. AN ISOLD LARGE HAIL OR STRONG WIND EVENT IS PSBL AS WELL AS VERY HEAVY RAIN. NO WATCH IS BEING ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. WELL ESTABLISHED COLD POOL AND SWD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS DEVELOPED ALONG SRN EDGE OF LINEAR MCS FROM NRN MCINTOSH AND MUSKOGEE COUNTIES IN ERN OK ESEWD TO NRN SCOTT AND YELL COUNTIES IN WRN AR. RECENT NLY WIND GUST TO 40KT WAS REPORTED BEHIND THE OUTFLOW AT FSM. STRONG LOW LEVEL MASS INFLOW ACROSS ERN OK COUPLED WITH MODEST WNWLY MEAN LAYER FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO FAVOR UPWIND PROPAGATION OF CELLULAR ELEMENTS ALONG THE WRN END OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THE LARGER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX SHOULD DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH IN THE WAKE OF THE OUTFLOW ACROSS WRN AR. UPDRAFTS IN OK WILL BE IN BETTER PROXIMITY TO STRONG INSTABILITY AND SHEAR AND A COUPLE WIND/HAIL EVENTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...THIS POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN LIMITED COMPARED TO THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCAL FLASH FLOODING FROM TRAINING/BACKBUILDING CONVECTION. ..CARBIN.. 07/03/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...OUN... 35049402 34369408 34039447 34149535 34499582 34899605 35259616 35669617 35909613 36139584 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 4 08:33:13 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 04 Jul 2004 03:33:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407030834.i638Y6126772@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 030832 SWOMCD SPC MCD 030832 TXZ000-OKZ000-031030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1481 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0332 AM CDT SAT JUL 03 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN TX...SWRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 538... VALID 030832Z - 031030Z SEVERE MCS MOVING SEWD AT 45-50KT ACROSS THE RED RIVER AND INTO NWRN TX EARLY TODAY. SYSTEM APPEARS TO HAVE DEVELOPED A SMALL MESOLOW WITH WELL DEFINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE LOW SWWD INTO NWRN TX. MESOSCALE ASCENT NEAR THE LOW AND ON THE OUTFLOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUSTAIN STRONG UPDRAFTS EARLY TODAY DESPITE RELATIVELY HIGH CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ACROSS NWRN TX. A NEW WATCH WILL BE NEEDED AHEAD OF THIS COMPLEX GIVEN STRONG SEWD PROPAGATION...UNSTABLE AIRMASS...AND MESOSCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT. A CORRIDOR OF WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL SHOULD DEVELOP SEWD ACROSS THE DFW AREA IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. ..CARBIN.. 07/03/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT... 32689627 32629860 34579981 34239692 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 4 11:15:24 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 04 Jul 2004 06:15:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407031116.i63BGG109596@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 031115 SWOMCD SPC MCD 031115 ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-031215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1482 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0615 AM CDT SAT JUL 03 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN OK/N CNTRL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 539... VALID 031115Z - 031215Z ...MCS IS RAPIDLY WEAKENING ACROSS NCNTRL TX AND WATCH MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY... OUTFLOW RECENTLY PASSED THROUGH DFW/FTW GENERALLY PRODUCING 30 KT GUSTS. MCS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING AS OUTFLOW MOVES OUT AHEAD OF MAIN CONVECTIVE LINE. STORMS ACROSS SE OK NEAR RED RIVER ARE DEVELOPING IN WARM AIR ADVECTION ZONE AND MAY BRIEFLY FLARE UP...AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH ERN OK/AR MCS EVENTUALLY INTERACTS WITH STORMS. AT THIS TIME...NO ADDITIONAL WATCH IS EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM...PENDING THAT STORMS DO NOT INCREASE IN INTENSITY. ..TAYLOR.. 07/03/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... 32189740 33759837 34249572 34239525 33469418 33039414 32169423 32169574 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 4 16:37:59 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 04 Jul 2004 11:37:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407031638.i63Gcp115276@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 031638 SWOMCD SPC MCD 031638 INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-031845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1483 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1138 AM CDT SAT JUL 03 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF IL AND IND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 031638Z - 031845Z CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND POSSIBILITY OF WW. BANDS OF CONVECTION ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP EAST OF CLOSED LOW NOW LIFTING INTO SOUTHEAST IOWA...AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS TRAILING SOUTHWARD TO 30+ KT CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL JET NOSING INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS/INDIANA. THIS IS OCCURRING AS RELATIVELY LOW CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S ARE BEING REACHED...AND ACTIVITY SHOULD INTENSIFY NEXT FEW HOURS AS 100 MB MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE INCREASES IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG. CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY IS LIMITED BY FAIRLY WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WITH WARM PROFILES ALSO TENDING TO MINIMIZE HAIL POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...MODELS SUGGEST SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENING FROM 20 TO 30 KT ALONG AN AXIS FROM WESTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH NORTHERN INDIANA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRENGTHENING SHEAR PROFILES ABOVE WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER IN WARM SECTOR OF SURFACE CYCLONE PROGGED TO LIFT FROM NORTHEAST MISSOURI INTO NORTHWEST ILLINOIS BY AROUND 21Z. GIVEN FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...WITH VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER /LOWER 70S DEW POINTS/...THIS MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES IN MORE VIGOROUS CONVECTION. WHILE SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FROM NEAR THE ILLINOIS/INDIANA BORDER EASTWARD ACROSS INDIANA...VERTICAL VORTICITY ALREADY PRESENT IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER SUPPORTS RISK FOR ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADOES ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL ILLINOIS AS WELL. ..KERR.. 07/03/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...DVN... 41339038 42078968 42108771 41448617 39628510 38778565 37808734 38168777 39248846 40139006 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 4 19:11:25 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 04 Jul 2004 14:11:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407031912.i63JCG128041@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 031910 SWOMCD SPC MCD 031910 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-032145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1484 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0210 PM CDT SAT JUL 03 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND...NWRN MN...NERN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 031910Z - 032145Z ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WW NOT ANTICIPATED. MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES TO STEEPEN LAPSE RATES AS WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES EWD ALONG CANADIAN / U.S. BORDER. MEANWHILE...SURFACE TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF COLD FRONT HAVE RISEN INTO THE LOWER 80S F. MLCAPE HAS INCREASED TO NEAR 2000 J/KG AS A RESULT. AREA VWPS INDICATE WEAK AND UNIDIRECTIONALLY WLY WIND FIELDS IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS WITH THE STRONGEST FLOW OVER FAR NWRN MN / NERN ND WHERE MID LEVEL FLOW ON THE ORDER OF 30 KTS EXISTS. SHORT HODOGRAPHS WITH NEGLIGIBLE LOW LEVEL HELICITY IN THESE AREAS ARE NOT VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER...GIVEN VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND RESULTANT LARGE VERTICAL ACCELERATIONS...A FEW STORMS WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN STRONG ENOUGH UPDRAFTS FOR SOME SEVERE HAIL. UPPER LEVEL FLOW APPROACHING 50 KTS MAY ALLOW FOR BETTER ORGANIZATION WITH TIME OVER EXTREME NERN ND / NWRN MN NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER. IF THIS OCCURS...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. OVERALL MEAN WIND SPEEDS THROUGH THE TROPOSPHERE ARE GENERALLY LESS THAN 20 KTS SO SEVERE WIND DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE OF PARTICULAR CONCERN. ..JEWELL.. 07/03/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS... 48519377 47519434 46229526 45159644 45219868 45970020 47370049 49009993 49009516 49409513 49339483 48769469 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 4 19:44:54 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 04 Jul 2004 14:44:54 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407031945.i63Jjj105068@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 031944 SWOMCD SPC MCD 031944 INZ000-KYZ000-MIZ000-ILZ000-032145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1485 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0244 PM CDT SAT JUL 03 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IL/IND CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 540... VALID 031944Z - 032145Z CONTINUE WW. PRIMARY CONVECTIVE BAND NOW APPEARS TO BE THAT WHICH EXTENDS WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF CHICAGO THROUGH THE CHAMPAIGN AREA...BEFORE CURVING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD BOWLING GREEN KY. THIS IS IN ZONE OF STRONGER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH DIFFERENTIAL POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION AHEAD OF MID-LEVEL TROUGH...WHICH WILL SLOWLY ROTATE NORTH NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CHICAGO/INDIANAPOLIS AND LOUISVILLE AREAS BY 03/23-04/00Z. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS BOUNDARY LAYER HAS HEATED TO AROUND 90F IN NARROW CORRIDOR NORTHEAST OF LOUISVILLE INTO THE GRISSOM AFB AREA OF NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA...ALONG WHICH INSTABILITY IS NOW MAXIMIZED WITH MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE TO 2000 J/KG. AS FORCING OVERSPREADS THIS AXIS...FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF UPDRAFTS APPEARS LIKELY. RISK OF DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS SHOULD INCREASE NEAR HEAVIER RAIN CORES NEXT FEW HOURS...WHILE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO CONTINUES AS LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS EAST OF THE INDIANA/ILLINOIS BORDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ..KERR.. 07/03/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...LOT... 41618869 42028852 42148800 42198735 41688632 41048576 40168547 38918529 38188573 38168626 38668687 39718718 40788760 41348859 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 4 20:51:06 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 04 Jul 2004 15:51:06 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407032051.i63Kpv122998@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 032051 SWOMCD SPC MCD 032050 SDZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-032245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1486 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0350 PM CDT SAT JUL 03 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN SD...WRN NEBRASKA...NERN CO...NWRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 032050Z - 032245Z STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND DEVELOP FROM NEAR RAP SWD INTO NERN CO. A FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL BE SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY. A WW MAY BE REQUIRED OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH EMBEDDED VORTICITY MAXIMA OVER WY INTO SD / NWRN NEBRASKA WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE THROUGH EVENING. SUBTLE HEIGHT FALLS AS FAR SOUTH AS CO AND NW KS WILL ALSO HELP INCREASE LARGE SCALE ASCENT. LOW LEVEL JET IS RESPONDING TO AFOREMENTIONED UPPER WIND FIELDS...WITH GLD VWP AND GDA PROFILER INDICATING SLY FLOW OF 15-20 KTS IN THE LOWEST 2 KM AGL...WITHIN INSTABILITY AXIS ALONG CO/KS BORDER. THUS...UNSTABLE AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FEED DEVELOPING CLUSTERS OF STORMS FROM SWRN SD INTO NERN CO. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 8.0 AND 9.0 C/KM EXIST...THUS VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS WITH LARGE HAIL WILL BE ILKLEY. INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET COUPLED WITH MODERATE MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR SUPERCELLULAR STORM MODE. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY AS STORMS MERGE INTO LARGER CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS WITH ORGANIZED COLD POOL / OUTFLOW. FORECAST HODOGRAPHS TAKE STORMS ESEWD AT 15-20 KTS THIS EVENING AND MODELS INDICATE POSSIBILITY OF MCS THAT MAY CONTINUE WELL INTO THE NIGHT POINTS SE. ..JEWELL.. 07/03/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS... 38730124 39290307 40200336 41150373 42520298 43780291 44100164 43309945 38790024 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 5 06:45:41 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 05 Jul 2004 01:45:41 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407040646.i646kU114156@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 040645 SWOMCD SPC MCD 040645 KSZ000-MOZ000-040815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1492 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0145 AM CDT SUN JUL 04 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 543...544... VALID 040645Z - 040815Z STRONG CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW SPREADING SWD/SEWD ACROSS SCNTRL AND ERN KS EARLY TODAY AIDED BY MODEST WNWLY MID LEVEL FLOW AND PRESSURE RISES ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS. LIFT ACROSS THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE AN IMPETUS FOR STORM INITIATION WITHIN VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS. BY 09Z...BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM SWRN MO WWD ACROSS SRN KS WITH THE BULK OF CONVECTION CONCENTRATED TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THIS OUTFLOW...ACROSS SERN KS. WITH UPDRAFTS ROOTED BETWEEN 850MB AND 700MB...MARGINAL EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE REALIZED IN THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER RESULTING IN PRIMARILY ELEVATED STORMS. HOWEVER..DESPITE POOR ORGANIZATION...MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY FEEDING THE POST-OUTFLOW STORMS WILL BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS/DOWNDRAFTS...LARGE HAIL...AND STRONG GUSTS. ..CARBIN.. 07/04/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD... 38069531 38210130 39340139 39079757 40009754 39959520 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 5 11:08:33 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 05 Jul 2004 06:08:33 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407041109.i64B9L126715@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 041108 SWOMCD SPC MCD 041108 MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-041315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1493 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0608 AM CDT SUN JUL 04 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KS...NERN OK...SWRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 546... VALID 041108Z - 041315Z SMALL BUT INTENSE MCS ACROSS SERN KS/NERN OK EARLY THIS MORNING. SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE ACCELERATING WITH SEVERAL HIGH WIND GUSTS REPORTED FROM SERN KS AND NERN OK OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. STRONG MESOHIGH AND COLD POOL HAVE EVOLVED WITHIN STRATIFORM RAIN REGION AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN LIFT AND STORM INITIATION ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY GIVEN ABUNDANTLY MOIST AND STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION. LATEST TRACK PLACES THE ARC OF OUTFLOW THROUGH MUCH OF NERN OK AND SWRN MO BY 13Z/8AM CDT. GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IN THE FORM OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST ALONG AND BEHIND THE OUTFLOW. ..CARBIN.. 07/04/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...ICT... 34979508 36739668 38669372 36819227 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 5 11:09:52 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 05 Jul 2004 06:09:52 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407041110.i64BAf127042@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 041109 SWOMCD SPC MCD 041109 MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-041315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1494 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0609 AM CDT SUN JUL 04 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KS...NERN OK...SWRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 546... VALID 041109Z - 041315Z SMALL BUT INTENSE MCS ACROSS SERN KS/NERN OK EARLY THIS MORNING. SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE ACCELERATING WITH SEVERAL HIGH WIND GUSTS REPORTED FROM SERN KS AND NERN OK OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. STRONG MESOHIGH AND COLD POOL HAVE EVOLVED WITHIN STRATIFORM RAIN REGION AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN LIFT AND STORM INITIATION ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY GIVEN ABUNDANTLY MOIST AND STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION. LATEST TRACK PLACES THE ARC OF OUTFLOW THROUGH MUCH OF NERN OK AND SWRN MO BY 13Z/8AM CDT. GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IN THE FORM OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST ALONG AND BEHIND THE OUTFLOW. ..CARBIN.. 07/04/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...ICT... 34979508 36739668 38669372 36819227 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 5 11:11:07 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 05 Jul 2004 06:11:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407041111.i64BBt127179@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 041108 SWOMCD SPC MCD 041108 MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-041315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1493 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0608 AM CDT SUN JUL 04 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KS...NERN OK...SWRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 546... VALID 041108Z - 041315Z SMALL BUT INTENSE MCS ACROSS SERN KS/NERN OK EARLY THIS MORNING. SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE ACCELERATING WITH SEVERAL HIGH WIND GUSTS REPORTED FROM SERN KS AND NERN OK OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. STRONG MESOHIGH AND COLD POOL HAVE EVOLVED WITHIN STRATIFORM RAIN REGION AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN LIFT AND STORM INITIATION ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY GIVEN ABUNDANTLY MOIST AND STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION. LATEST TRACK PLACES THE ARC OF OUTFLOW THROUGH MUCH OF NERN OK AND SWRN MO BY 13Z/8AM CDT. GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IN THE FORM OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST ALONG AND BEHIND THE OUTFLOW. ..CARBIN.. 07/04/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...ICT... 34979508 36739668 38669372 36819227  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 5 11:11:39 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 05 Jul 2004 06:11:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407041112.i64BCS127282@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 041109 SWOMCD SPC MCD 041109 MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-041315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1494 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0609 AM CDT SUN JUL 04 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KS...NERN OK...SWRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 546... VALID 041109Z - 041315Z SMALL BUT INTENSE MCS ACROSS SERN KS/NERN OK EARLY THIS MORNING. SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE ACCELERATING WITH SEVERAL HIGH WIND GUSTS REPORTED FROM SERN KS AND NERN OK OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. STRONG MESOHIGH AND COLD POOL HAVE EVOLVED WITHIN STRATIFORM RAIN REGION AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN LIFT AND STORM INITIATION ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY GIVEN ABUNDANTLY MOIST AND STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION. LATEST TRACK PLACES THE ARC OF OUTFLOW THROUGH MUCH OF NERN OK AND SWRN MO BY 13Z/8AM CDT. GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IN THE FORM OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST ALONG AND BEHIND THE OUTFLOW. ..CARBIN.. 07/04/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...ICT... 34979508 36739668 38669372 36819227  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 5 15:08:35 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 05 Jul 2004 10:08:35 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407041509.i64F9N132224@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 041508 SWOMCD SPC MCD 041508 PAZ000-NYZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-041745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1495 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1008 AM CDT SUN JUL 04 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OH/PARTS OF NRN WV/WRN PA/WRN NY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 041508Z - 041745Z CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND POSSIBILITY OF WW...WHICH COULD BECOME NECESSARY WITHIN NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. SLOW INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ONGOING TO THE WEST OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THIS IS BEING SUPPORTED BY FORCING AHEAD OF MID/UPPER TROUGH AXIS...WHICH IS LIFTING OUT OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...AND PROGGED TO CONTINUE INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF TROUGH AXIS INTO THE APPALACHIANS REGION IS VERY MOIST AND CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE...WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS CLOSE TO 70F...AND NEAR SATURATION THROUGH MUCH OF THE TROPOSPHERE. WHILE WARM PROFILES AND RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD MINIMIZE HAIL POTENTIAL...HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT OF AIR WILL SUPPORT HEAVY RAIN CORES WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS. DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WILL BE ENHANCED A BIT BY 20 TO 30 KT SOUTHERLY MEAN LOWER/MID-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW REGIME SHIFTING AHEAD OF TROUGH AXIS...FROM PARTS OF EASTERN OHIO/NORTHWESTERN WEST VIRGINIA THROUGH WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON. THREAT SHOULD BE GREATEST DURING/SHORTLY AFTER PEAK HEATING HOURS ...WITH ACTIVITY APPROACHING/PROGRESSING THROUGH THE BUFFALO/ PITTSBURGH AREAS BY 20-21Z. WHILE SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL...MOIST/BUOYANT BOUNDARY LAYER MAY ALSO BE SUPPORTIVE OF VERY ISOLATED TORNADOES. ..KERR.. 07/04/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE... 43267782 40827808 39527994 38528246 40538132 41828094 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 5 15:38:17 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 05 Jul 2004 10:38:17 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407041539.i64Fd5108468@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 041538 SWOMCD SPC MCD 041538 TNZ000-ALZ000-KYZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-041745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1496 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1038 AM CDT SUN JUL 04 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AR/WRN TN/NRN MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 547... VALID 041538Z - 041745Z CONTINUE WW...ADDITIONAL WW LIKELY WILL BE NEEDED EASTWARD ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY 17-18Z. DESPITE WESTERLY COMPONENT TO SURFACE FLOW AHEAD OF GUST FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTIVE CLUSTER...RAPID SOUTHEASTWARD PROPAGATION IN EXCESS OF 40 KT IS CONTRIBUTING TO STRONG INFLOW OF VERY MOIST AIR MASS. SURFACE DEW POINTS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI/TENNESSEE VALLEYS ARE IN THE LOWER/MID 70S...AND DAYTIME HEATING/DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER IS ERODING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION FROM NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND WESTERN TENNESSEE EASTWARD ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. 40 TO 50 KT WESTERLY MID-LEVEL JET STREAK IS STILL EVIDENT IN VAD WIND DATA UPSTREAM OF CLUSTER ACROSS THE OZARKS...AND MODELS ARE LIKELY TOO FAST IN WEAKENING THIS FEATURE AS IT DEVELOPS SOUTH OF OHIO VALLEY UPPER TROUGH INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY/NORTHERN GULF STATES THIS AFTERNOON. WITH CONVECTION BECOMING ROOTED IN BOUNDARY LAYER WITH CAPE OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG...POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION EXISTS AS IT SPREADS THROUGH THE DYERSBURG/MEMPHIS AREAS DURING THE 17-18Z TIME FRAME. SQUALL LINE WITH SWATH OF DAMAGING WINDS MAY SPREAD ACROSS THE NASHVILLE TN...TUPELO/COLUMBUS MS...AND FLORENCE/HUNTSVILLE AREAS BY 21-22Z. ..KERR.. 07/04/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...OHX...BMX...HUN...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK... 36499112 36618899 36508653 36038538 34898592 34008745 33618926 33649020 33999117 34669184 35319137 35879114 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 5 16:25:24 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 05 Jul 2004 11:25:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407041626.i64GQI122127@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 041625 SWOMCD SPC MCD 041624 KYZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-041900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1497 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1124 AM CDT SUN JUL 04 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...S CNTRL IL...SRN IND/SW OH...N CNTRL KY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 041624Z - 041900Z CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF INCREASING SEVERE THREAT. WW COULD BECOME NECESSARY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING NORTH OF THE ST. LOUIS AREA...AND APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION/DESTABILIZATION IN EXIT REGION OF CYCLONIC 45 KT 500 MB JET STREAK PROPAGATING THROUGH THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY. THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE EAST SOUTHEASTWARD INTO BASE OF BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ON SOUTHERN FRINGE OF WESTERLIES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS/SOUTHERN INDIANA LIKELY TO BECOME FOCUS FOR EXPANDING CLUSTER OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH DEW POINTS AROUND 70F THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY IS DESTABILIZING WITH DAYTIME HEATING...AND AS LOW-LEVEL INHIBITION WEAKENS...ONGOING ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY ROOTED IN THIS LAYER. SHEAR PROFILES/FLOW FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH JET STREAK ARE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT EVOLUTION OF ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTER...AND UNSATURATED LOW/MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL ENHANCE EVAPORATIVE COOLING NEAR HEAVY PRECIPITATION. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS/INDIANA BY THE 20-21Z TIME FRAME...POSSIBLY APPROACHING THE CINCINNATI/LOUISVILLE AREAS BEFORE 05/00Z. ..KERR.. 07/04/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX... 39028970 39408840 39158718 39658477 38688448 37368653 37218858 38069008 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 5 18:25:48 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 05 Jul 2004 13:25:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407041826.i64IQa125242@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 041826 SWOMCD SPC MCD 041825 ARZ000-OKZ000-042030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1498 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0125 PM CDT SUN JUL 04 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK...NWRN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 041825Z - 042030Z A FEW SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NWRN AR INTO NERN OK. THIS BOUNDARY IS WASHING OUT QUICKLY AS TEMPERATURES HAVE JUMPED 5-10 DEGREES F OVER THE LAST HOUR. CAP STRENGTH IS OF GREATEST CONCERN AND IS CURRENTLY SUPPRESSING DEVELOPMENT ALONG BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...WITH CONTINUED HEATING...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR WITHIN THIS LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ZONE. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AND IF IT BECOMES APPARENT STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF STRONG INSTABILITY...A WW COULD BE REQUIRED. ..JEWELL.. 07/04/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA... 35319316 34799340 34909468 35289588 35669653 36659632 36889567 36479461 36099321 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 5 18:28:37 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 05 Jul 2004 13:28:37 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407041829.i64ITO126194@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 041828 SWOMCD SPC MCD 041828 NEZ000-COZ000-042030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1499 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0128 PM CDT SUN JUL 04 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 041828Z - 042030Z STRONG HEATING WRN NEB AHEAD OF TROUGH MOVING ACROSS MT/WY AND DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW NEB PANHANDLE IS FOCUSING AREA OF SEVERE STORM INITIATION. MUCAPES TO 2500 J/KG AND STEEP LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 8.5C/KM SUPPORT LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL...PARTICULARLY IN ANY SUPERCELL THAT CAN DEVELOP. THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO FORM RAPIDLY AND BECOME SEVERE BY 20-21Z. ..HALES.. 07/04/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS... 41940315 42520321 42910283 42960209 42810062 42229997 41579988 41129995 40740010 40280058 40150121 41080267 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 5 18:32:00 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 05 Jul 2004 13:32:00 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407041832.i64IWp126949@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 041832 SWOMCD SPC MCD 041831 TNZ000-NCZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-042030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1500 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0131 PM CDT SUN JUL 04 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/MIDDLE TN...NRN MS...NRN AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 548... VALID 041831Z - 042030Z CONTINUE REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW. RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS WITH CONVECTIVE CLUSTER MAY PERSIST BEYOND 21Z...AND NEW WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY SOUTHEASTWARD FROM CENTRAL ALABAMA INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED...BUT SURFACE COLD POOL REMAINS QUITE STRONG...AND 40 TO 50 KT WESTERLY LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC JET IS STILL EVIDENT TO THE REAR OF INTENSE SQUALL LINE. SLIGHT BACKING OF LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF LINE FROM A SOUTHWESTERLY TO A MORE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT HAS OCCURRED...AND...GIVEN RAPID EASTWARD MOTION OF COLD POOL...CONVERGENCE ALONG GUST FRONT SHOULD REMAIN STRONG AT LEAST ANOTHER FEW HOURS. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED TO 90F ALONG AN AXIS FROM SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS INTO NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...WHERE INSTABILITY HAS BECOME MAXIMIZED PAST HOUR OR TWO...WITH MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE NOW IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG. THIS MAY SUPPORT A SOUTHWARD SHIFT TO STRONGEST CONVECTION ACROSS THE TUPELO MS/FLORENCE AL AREAS THROUGH 20Z...BEFORE ACTIVITY CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND NORTHERN ALABAMA THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ..KERR.. 07/04/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN... 35188869 36288809 36238730 36308653 36228524 36348318 34348343 33668519 33188813 33369007 33969074 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 5 19:01:11 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 05 Jul 2004 14:01:11 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407041902.i64J24102722@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 041901 SWOMCD SPC MCD 041900 PAZ000-NYZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-042100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1501 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0200 PM CDT SUN JUL 04 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NY...WRN PA...NRN WV CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 549... VALID 041900Z - 042100Z CONTINUE WW. SLOW INCREASE/INTENSIFICATION OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES ACROSS EASTERN OHIO...AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH AXIS LIFTING INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/UPPER OHIO VALLEY. INSTABILITY WILL BECOME MAXIMIZED NEXT FEW HOURS IN PEAK HEATING AHEAD OF LINE IN NARROW CORRIDOR ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA THROUGH WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA INTO WESTERN NEW YORK STATE. THUS...FURTHER INTENSIFICATION APPEARS LIKELY...AND RISK FOR GUSTY...POTENTIALLY DAMAGING...WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH EVOLVING SQUALL LINE. ACTIVITY SHOULD REACH THE PITTSBURGH AREA BY 21Z...AND AREAS SOUTHWEST OF BUFFALO SHORTLY THEREAFTER, ..KERR.. 07/04/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...CLE... 43207794 41877798 40117854 38398005 37738176 38558141 40288083 41858094 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 5 20:04:37 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 05 Jul 2004 15:04:37 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407042005.i64K5O120150@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 042004 SWOMCD SPC MCD 042004 KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-042200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1502 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0304 PM CDT SUN JUL 04 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IL...SRN IND...N CNTRL KY...SW OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 550... VALID 042004Z - 042200Z CONTINUE WW. POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS APPEARS LIKELY TO INCREASE NEXT FEW HOURS. GROWING CLUSTER OF INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING ACROSS SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS...WEST/NORTH OF EVANSVILLE. SOURCE REGION FOR PARCELS COMPRISING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE VERY MOIST/POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI/SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 80S AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER/MID 70S. WHILE BASE OF UPDRAFTS ARE LIKELY STILL ELEVATED ABOVE BOUNDARY LAYER IN ZONE OF STRONGER ISENTROPIC ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL JET STREAK...EVOLUTION OF SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE COLD POOL/ MESO HIGH APPEARS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS NEAR/NORTH OF EVANSVILLE. CONVERGENCE ALONG DEVELOPING OUTFLOW SPREADING TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER SHOULD THEN MAINTAIN VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN ENVIRONMENT WITH MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG. GIVEN PRESENCE OF MODERATE 30 TO 40 KT WESTERLY MID-LEVEL JET... AND RELATIVELY WEAK HIGH-LEVEL FLOW...PROFILES APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF FORWARD PROPAGATING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WITH POTENTIAL FOR SWATH OF DAMAGING WINDS. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER...FROM LOUISVILLE INTO THE CINCINNATI AREA...BY THE 04/23-05/00Z TIME FRAME. ..KERR.. 07/04/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX... 38318890 38818848 38958776 39138714 39378657 39328586 38938497 38378499 37758555 37418603 37348753 37598808 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 5 20:22:15 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 05 Jul 2004 15:22:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407042023.i64KNP125140@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 042022 SWOMCD SPC MCD 042021 OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-042145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1503 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0321 PM CDT SUN JUL 04 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX PANHANDLE...NWRN OK...SWRN AND CENTRAL KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 042021Z - 042145Z A WW WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY. MAIN SEVERE THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. CONVERGENCE ALONG DRYLINE ALONG WITH SURFACE HEATING NOW BREAKING CAP OVER TX PANHANDLE WITH TCU ON VISIBLE IMAGERY WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT LIKELY AS UPPER VORT MAX APPROACHES. CONVERGENT AXIS EXTENDS NWD INTO SWRN KS WHERE STRONG INSTABILITY EXISTS WITH MLCAPE 2000-3000 K/KG. AREA PROFILERS SHOW ENOUGH SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS WITH 20-30 KTS OF WLY FLOW ABOVE 2 KM AGL. LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS WEAK AND THEREFORE TORNADO THREAT APPEARS QUITE ISOLATED. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS...DOMINANT CONVECTIVE MODE WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO EWD MOVING MCS. ..JEWELL.. 07/04/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA... 38770025 38809852 36779855 35339975 34770082 35140150 36090125 37000097 38210061 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 5 20:56:13 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 05 Jul 2004 15:56:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407042057.i64Kv0103557@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 042056 SWOMCD SPC MCD 042055 PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-VAZ000-042200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1504 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0355 PM CDT SUN JUL 04 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL PA/ERN WV PNHDL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 549... VALID 042055Z - 042200Z CONTINUE REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW. NEW WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. BROKEN CONVECTIVE LINE IS STILL EVOLVING AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH AXIS LIFTING INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION. ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY PROGRESSING THROUGH INSTABILITY AXIS WHERE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER HEATED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...FROM THE MOUNTAINS OF WEST VIRGINIA THROUGH WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW YORK. EAST OF THE CREST OF THE APPALACHIANS...ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...CLOUD COVER HAS INHIBITED DESTABILIZATION...AND POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION BEYOND NEXT HOUR OR SO APPEARS MINIMAL. GIVEN MARGINAL NATURE OF CURRENT SEVERE THREAT...NEW WW MAY NOT BE NEEDED. ..KERR.. 07/04/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX... 40507949 41447926 41917906 41917718 41467747 40817801 39597782 38617897 38317983 38748011 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 5 22:24:36 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 05 Jul 2004 17:24:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407042225.i64MPN130544@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 042224 SWOMCD SPC MCD 042224 NEZ000-SDZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-050000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1505 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0524 PM CDT SUN JUL 04 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NEB...ERN CO...WRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 551... VALID 042224Z - 050000Z 22Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LATEST PRESSURE FALLS CENTERED OVER SWRN NEBRASKA...ON NOSE OF INSTABILITY AXIS WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S F. STORMS OVER WRN NEB AND NERN CO WILL MOVE SEWD INTO SWRN NEB AND NWRN KS WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS LIKELY. FARTHER SOUTH...SWRN PORTIONS OF WW HAVE DRIED OUT SUBSTANTIALLY AND WILL LIKELY BE CLEARED WITHIN NEXT HOUR. STORMS OVER EXTREME SERN CO WILL CONTINUE EWD INTO SWRN KS...WHERE DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED IN THE LAST HOUR...SUGGESTING STRONG OUTFLOW WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT. E OF A GCK TO LBL LINE...STORMS ALONG DRY LINE WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND DEVELOP OVER WRN WW 552. ..JEWELL.. 07/04/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...UNR...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...CYS...ABQ... 36970084 36960450 43000296 42989923 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 5 22:54:43 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 05 Jul 2004 17:54:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407042255.i64MtU106594@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 042254 SWOMCD SPC MCD 042254 TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-050000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1506 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0554 PM CDT SUN JUL 04 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TN...NRN AL...NWRN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 553... VALID 042254Z - 050000Z ...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE ACROSS TN INTO THE NRN GULF COAST STATES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WW IS NOT EXPECTED DOWNSTREAM... LEADING EDGE OF LONG-LIVED MCS CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE ESEWD ACROSS MIDDLE TN INTO NRN AL. IN THE ABSENCE OF LARGE SCALE FORCING...THIS ORGANIZED MCS SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN IN INTENSITY AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS. IN THE SHORT TERM...ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN LARGER CLUSTER MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS BUT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE DECREASING. WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED DOWNSTREAM AS THIS ACTIVITY SPREADS EAST OF CURRENT WATCH. ..DARROW.. 07/04/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN... 33778681 34918598 35558574 36218524 36138437 35168453 34098518 33208638 33008770 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 5 23:15:49 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 05 Jul 2004 18:15:49 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407042316.i64NGg111382@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 042224 SWOMCD SPC MCD 042224 NEZ000-SDZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-050000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1505 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0524 PM CDT SUN JUL 04 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NEB...ERN CO...WRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 551... VALID 042224Z - 050000Z 22Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LATEST PRESSURE FALLS CENTERED OVER SWRN NEBRASKA...ON NOSE OF INSTABILITY AXIS WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S F. STORMS OVER WRN NEB AND NERN CO WILL MOVE SEWD INTO SWRN NEB AND NWRN KS WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS LIKELY. FARTHER SOUTH...SWRN PORTIONS OF WW HAVE DRIED OUT SUBSTANTIALLY AND WILL LIKELY BE CLEARED WITHIN NEXT HOUR. STORMS OVER EXTREME SERN CO WILL CONTINUE EWD INTO SWRN KS...WHERE DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED IN THE LAST HOUR...SUGGESTING STRONG OUTFLOW WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT. E OF A GCK TO LBL LINE...STORMS ALONG DRY LINE WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND DEVELOP OVER WRN WW 552. ..JEWELL.. 07/04/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...UNR...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...CYS...ABQ... 36970084 36960450 43000296 42989923  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 5 23:26:03 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 05 Jul 2004 18:26:03 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407042326.i64NQo113697@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 042254 SWOMCD SPC MCD 042254 TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-050000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1506 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0554 PM CDT SUN JUL 04 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TN...NRN AL...NWRN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 553... VALID 042254Z - 050000Z ...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE ACROSS TN INTO THE NRN GULF COAST STATES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WW IS NOT EXPECTED DOWNSTREAM... LEADING EDGE OF LONG-LIVED MCS CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE ESEWD ACROSS MIDDLE TN INTO NRN AL. IN THE ABSENCE OF LARGE SCALE FORCING...THIS ORGANIZED MCS SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN IN INTENSITY AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS. IN THE SHORT TERM...ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN LARGER CLUSTER MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS BUT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE DECREASING. WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED DOWNSTREAM AS THIS ACTIVITY SPREADS EAST OF CURRENT WATCH. ..DARROW.. 07/04/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN... 33778681 34918598 35558574 36218524 36138437 35168453 34098518 33208638 33008770  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 5 23:29:59 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 05 Jul 2004 18:29:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407042330.i64NUl114701@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 042330 SWOMCD SPC MCD 042329 PAZ000-NYZ000-050030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1507 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0629 PM CDT SUN JUL 04 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NY...NRN PA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 552... VALID 042329Z - 050030Z ...LOCALLY STRONG WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS AS THEY PROGRESS EWD ACROSS THE WATCH... STRONG WARM ADVECTION IS SPREADING ACROSS WRN NY INTO SERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC AS LLJ LIFTS/DEVELOPS NWD INTO SRN CANADA. AN ELONGATED ZONE OF CONVECTION...ROUGHLY 50MI WIDE...WITH EMBEDDED STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS IS GRADUALLY SPREADING EWD TOWARD A PROGRESSIVELY MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. THIS ACTIVITY MAY STRUGGLE TO GENERATE MORE THAN LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING FURTHER DIMINISHES INSTABILITY. ..DARROW.. 07/04/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP... 40867824 42377825 43637833 43887728 42837694 40907726 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 6 00:03:24 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 05 Jul 2004 19:03:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407050004.i6504B122798@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 050003 SWOMCD SPC MCD 050002 NEZ000-KSZ000-SDZ000-050100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1508 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0702 PM CDT SUN JUL 04 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN SD...NEB...NCNTRL KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 551... VALID 050002Z - 050100Z ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... MULTIPLE MCS/S ARE MATURING ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS FROM SWRN SD...SWD INTO NWRN KS. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE ITS FORWARD PROPAGATION AS IT SURGES EWD INTO MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH SUSTAINED...BUT GRADUALLY INCREASING WARM ADVECTION PROFILES. IN ADDITION...FRONTAL ZONE IS WELL ESTABLISHED FROM ERN NEB...NWWD INTO SWRN SD AHEAD OF INCREASING THUNDERSTORMS. THIS MAY SERVE TO FOCUS NRN PORTIONS OF SQUALL LINE. WW WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY. ..DARROW.. 07/05/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...UNR...GLD... 43320067 42499802 39979855 39430014 40490094 42100034 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 6 00:12:37 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 05 Jul 2004 19:12:37 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407050013.i650Dc124732@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 050012 SWOMCD SPC MCD 050012 KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-050215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1509 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0712 PM CDT SUN JUL 04 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND SW KS...WRN OK...TX PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 554... VALID 050012Z - 050215Z THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL CONTINUES ACROSS WW. MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO COOL WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NM. AREA VWPS AND PROFILERS INDICATE BACKING 500 MB WINDS NOW INTO WRN TX PANHANDLE...WITH SPEEDS OF 40 KTS NEAR TUCUMCARI. WIND PROFILES FROM ERN NM...ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE INTO NWRN OK AND SWRN KS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLULAR STORM STRUCTURE. STORM MODE IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO MORE OF AN MCS WITH SIGNIFICANT WIND POTENTIAL LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AS CONVECTION OVER ERN CO / WRN KS MERGES WITH SW KS CONVECTION. ..JEWELL.. 07/05/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA... 34839935 34830162 39090016 39139773 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 6 03:45:31 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 05 Jul 2004 22:45:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407050346.i653kS112652@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 050345 SWOMCD SPC MCD 050345 NEZ000-KSZ000-SDZ000-050445- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1511 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1045 PM CDT SUN JUL 04 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NEB...NRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 555... VALID 050345Z - 050445Z ...DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF APPROACHING SQUALL LINES... MULTIPLE MCS'S HAVE EMERGED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND APPEAR TO BE SURGING WITH A GREATER WIND POTENTIAL AS THEY ENCROACH FROM BOTH THE SOUTH AND WEST. IT APPEARS THE GREATEST WIND POTENTIAL IN THE NEAR TERM SHOULD BE NEAR THE APEX OF TWO OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES APPROACHING NCNTRL KS FROM PHILLIPS COUNTY TO JEWELL COUNTY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD INTO SCNTRL NEB SHORTLY ALONG WITH ATTENDANT WIND THREAT. ..DARROW.. 07/05/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF... 39599939 40969953 41889853 42839827 42549696 40599792 39189712 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 6 04:20:41 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 05 Jul 2004 23:20:41 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407050421.i654LW120798@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 050420 SWOMCD SPC MCD 050420 KSZ000-OKZ000-050515- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1512 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1120 PM CDT SUN JUL 04 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...KS...NRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 556... VALID 050420Z - 050515Z ...STRONG WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF SQUALL LINE OVER SERN KS... LEADING SQUALL LINE IS PROGRESSING EWD ACROSS WW AT ROUGHLY 35KT WITH ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW RACING UP TO 5-10 MI AHEAD OF PRECIPITATION. A SLOW UPWARD TREND IN WAKE PRECIPITATION MAY ALLOW FOR AN ENHANCED COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT...AND POSSIBLE INCREASED FORWARD PROPAGATION SPEED. A SECONDARY BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED OVER SWRN PORTIONS OF KS AND NWRN OK. THIS ACTIVITY HAS STRUGGLED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS BUT MAY BE INDICATIVE OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH. ..DARROW.. 07/05/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...AMA... 36840113 38149985 39259880 38979627 37849551 36579694 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 6 06:17:02 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 06 Jul 2004 01:17:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407050617.i656Hu120271@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 050617 SWOMCD SPC MCD 050616 IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-050745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1513 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0116 AM CDT MON JUL 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB....WRN IA...NERN KS...NWRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 555...557... VALID 050616Z - 050745Z IT APPEARS SEVERE TSTM WATCHES 555 AND 557 WILL NEED TO BE REPLACED WITH A NEW SEVERE TSTM WATCH COVERING SECTIONS OF ERN NEB/WRN IA...NERN KS AND NWRN MO. LARGE ARC OF OUTFLOW IN ADVANCE OF DEEP CONVECTIVELY INDUCED COLD POOL AND STRATIFORM RAIN AREA CONTINUES DEVELOPING NEWD TOWARD THE MO RIVER VALLEY AREA THIS MORNING. LATEST TRACK TAKES DEEP CONVECTION NEWD AT 35-40KT ACROSS ERN NEB AND INTO WRN IA THROUGH 09Z. AN AXIS OF STRONG INSTABILITY REMAINS FOCUSED ALONG SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY BISECTING IA...AS WELL AS AHEAD OF NRN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NOW MOVING INTO NERN NEB. GIVEN FAST NEWD COLD POOL MOTION AND FCST OF STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL FLOW AS UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES EWD FROM THE HIGH PLAINS...CONVECTION SHOULD OCCASIONALLY REACH SEVERE LEVELS WITH HIGH WIND AND HAIL HAZARD SPREADING NEWD INTO EARLY MORNING. ..CARBIN.. 07/05/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF... 39089563 40389749 40849825 41399886 42799688 42989494 41909327 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 6 07:07:36 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 06 Jul 2004 02:07:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407050708.i6578n101641@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 050707 SWOMCD SPC MCD 050706 KSZ000-OKZ000-050900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1514 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0206 AM CDT MON JUL 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KS...NR OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 556... VALID 050706Z - 050900Z RADAR IMAGERY LOOPS FROM ICT DEPICT COMPLEX ARRAY OF INTERSECTING BOUNDARIES AND MESOSCALE CIRCULATIONS. AS ONE MESOLOW WAS LIFTING NEWD TOWARD NERN KS TRAILING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THIS CIRCULATION HAS CAUGHT UP TO AND MERGED WITH AN OUTFLOW FROM LEADING CONVECTIVE LINE NOW MOVING INTO ERN KS. THESE MERGED BOUNDARIES APPEAR TO BE PROVIDING A MESOSCALE FOCUS FOR RENEWED CONVECTIVE INTENSIFICATION FROM SEDGWICK COUNTY SWD INTO HARPER COUNTY KS AT THIS TIME...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT MOVING EAST FROM ALFALFA INTO GRANT COUNTY OK. AIRMASS TO THE EAST OF THE NEW STORM COMPLEX WAS VERY UNSTABLE AND...COUPLED WITH FAVORABLE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SRN PLAINS UPPER TROUGH AND MODEST LOW LEVEL JET...EXPECT DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL THREAT TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF SEVERE TSTM WATCH 556 THROUGH 09Z. IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT ANOTHER WATCH WILL BE NEEDED TO THE EAST OF WATCH 556 IN WITHIN 1-2 HOURS. ..CARBIN.. 07/05/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA... 36219517 36680048 37669886 38319701 38849675 38669504 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 6 07:23:27 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 06 Jul 2004 02:23:27 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407050724.i657OJ105619@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 050723 SWOMCD SPC MCD 050722 OKZ000-TXZ000-050915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1515 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0222 AM CDT MON JUL 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX PNHDL...WRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 050722Z - 050915Z SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TX PNHDL AND WRN OK EARLY TODAY. WATCH MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THESE AREAS SHORTLY. WV IMAGERY DEPICTS WELL-DEFINED SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING EAST ACROSS NERN NM. MEANWHILE A SERIES OF SWD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES HAVE MOVED OVER THE NRN TX PNHDL AND MERGED WITH SW-NE ORIENTED SURFACE TROUGH. LARGE SCALE ASCENT FROM THE SHORT WAVE...COUPLED WITH MESOSCALE ASCENT ALONG THE TROUGH/OUTFLOWS... SHOULD OVERCOME RELATIVELY HIGH CONVECTIVE INHIBITION TO SUSTAIN VIGOROUS TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AND ACTIVITY SHOULD TAP INTO GREATER INSTABILITY AS IT DEVELOPS EWD TOWARD WRN OK. THUS...LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WIND POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING. ..CARBIN.. 07/05/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA... 34489872 33989974 33860185 35740166 36589934 35739830 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 6 09:45:27 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 06 Jul 2004 04:45:27 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407050946.i659kC115002@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 050945 SWOMCD SPC MCD 050945 MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-051145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1516 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0445 AM CDT MON JUL 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS...SWRN IA...NRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 558... VALID 050945Z - 051145Z BROKEN ARC OF DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO LIFT NEWD INTO SWRN IA...AND MOVE EWD ACROSS NRN MO EARLY TODAY. SMALL CLUSTER OF INTENSE STORMS NW OF COU APPEARS TO BE ALONG INSTABILITY GRADIENT AND ON THE NOSE OF 25-35KT LLJ. ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH...ABUNDANT INSTABILITY AND FASTER WLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ADVANCING SEVERE SQUALL LINE MOVING EAST FROM ERN KS AT OVER 40KT. WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL SHOULD INCREASE FROM LINN COUNTY IN ERN KS EAST ACROSS BATES AND HENRY COUNTIES OF WRN MO OVER THE 1-2 HOURS. FARTHER NORTH...INSTABILITY REMAINS LIMITED AND FOCUSED ALONG QUASISTATIONARY FRONT DRAPED ACROSS SRN IA. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS BEEN MERGING WITH THIS FRONT ACROSS ERN NEB AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS THIS PROCESS DEVELOPS EWD INTO SWRN IA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH E/NEWD MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER KS MAY OVERCOME LACK OF GREATER INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT A COUPLE OF HAIL OR WIND EVENTS OVER THE REMAINING VALID TIME OF THE WATCH. ..CARBIN.. 07/05/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP... 37889416 38849539 39399441 40829553 41509679 43069489 40099156 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 6 11:02:56 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 06 Jul 2004 06:02:56 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407051103.i65B3q105278@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 051103 SWOMCD SPC MCD 051102 MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-051230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1517 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0602 AM CDT MON JUL 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN OK...SERN KS...SWRN MO...NWRN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 559... VALID 051102Z - 051230Z NUMEROUS STRONG AND A FEW SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE WITHIN WW 559 EARLY THIS MORNING. MOST INTENSE ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL SCALE BOW ECHO MOVING ENEWD AT 45-50KT ACROSS HENRY AND ST. CLAIR COUNTIES OF WCNTRL MO. THE APEX OF THIS BOW APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING ALONG A TRAILING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SAGGING SWD FROM ERN BENTON TO MORGAN COUNTIES. STORM SCALE INFLOW AND ASCENT INVOF THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD MAINTAIN THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH THE BOW ECHO AS IT DEVELOPS EAST ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF WW 559 OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. IF THIS ACTIVITY CAN MAINTAIN INTENSITY...AREAS OF ECNTRL MO MAY NEED TO BE COVERED IN A NEW SEVERE TSTM WATCH. FARTHER SW...WIDELY SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ATOP COLD POOL IN THE WAKE OF THE BOW COMPLEX...FROM SERN KS INTO NERN OK. A FEW OF THE STRONGER CORES COULD STILL PRODUCE SOME HAIL. ..CARBIN.. 07/05/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...ICT...OUN... 38579428 38739284 38329171 36569112 36189358 36079612 36169735 38049489 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 6 14:12:12 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 06 Jul 2004 09:12:12 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407051412.i65ECv131247@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 051412 SWOMCD SPC MCD 051412 INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-051515- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1518 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0912 AM CDT MON JUL 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MO INTO CENTRAL/SRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 560... VALID 051412Z - 051515Z DAMAGING BOW ECHO WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT EAST CENTRAL MO... INCLUDING ST LOUIS METRO AREA...THROUGH 15Z AS IT MOVES INTO SWRN IL. SECOND STRONG BOW ECHO EXPECTED TO MOVE SEWD TOWARD SRN IL THROUGH 16Z. NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED BY 16Z FOR PORTIONS OF SRN IL INTO SWRN IND. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW DAMAGING BOW ECHO...CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM LINCOLN TO FRANKLIN COUNTIES MO...MOVING ENEWD AT 40-45 KT. STL VAD DATA SHOWED WINDS BELOW 1 KM IN THE WAKE OF THE LEADING BOW...RESPONDING TO UPSTREAM/APPROACHING STRONGER BOW...WITH WINDS HAVING BECOME ESELY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THIS STRONGER BOW TO SUSTAIN SIMILAR INTENSITY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE STL AREA INTO SWRN IL. THE LEADING BOW MOVING INTO ST CLAIR COUNTY IL WAS MOVING TO THE SE AT 30-35 KT. AIR MASS DOWNSTREAM ACROSS SRN IL HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE...GIVEN THE ONSET OF SURFACE HEATING THIS MORNING WITHIN MOIST ENVIRONMENT. ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION EXPECTED ACROSS SRN IL PER 12Z ETA SHOULD SUPPORT A CONTINUED SEWD MOVEMENT OF LEAD BOW AND ENEWD MOVEMENT OF DAMAGING BOW INTO SRN IL. ..PETERS.. 07/05/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX... 38959144 39579119 39748927 39508739 38418707 37988753 37288873 37969008 38039139 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 6 17:09:08 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 06 Jul 2004 12:09:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407051709.i65H9q123518@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 051709 SWOMCD SPC MCD 051708 KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-051815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1519 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1208 PM CDT MON JUL 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN IL/SWRN IND/NWRN KY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 561... VALID 051708Z - 051815Z DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS ACROSS FAR SERN IL INTO SWRN IND/NWRN KY. NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT HOUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN KY...AS THE BOW IS EXPECTED TO EXIT WW 561 BY 1830Z...WITH NEW STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS FAR WRN KY IN A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW A LARGE BOWING STRUCTURE EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL INTO SRN IL AT 1645Z...WITH THE STRONGEST PORTION AND SEVERE POTENTIAL ALONG THE SRN EXTENT. THIS SRN PORTION HAS TENDED TO MAINTAIN ITS ESEWD MOVEMENT OF 35 KT...SUPPORTING DAMAGING WINDS. AT THIS SPEED...AND WITH ADDITIONAL AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION EXPECTED DOWNSTREAM ACROSS SRN IND/WRN KY WHERE MLCAPE IS ALREADY RANGING FROM 2000-3000 J/KG...THIS MCS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ITS FORWARD PROPAGATION. ALTHOUGH STORMS HAVE INCREASED IN INTENSITY FARTHER N ACROSS CENTRAL IL ALONG NRN PORTION OF LARGE BOW...SLOWER EWD MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. HOWEVER...STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED HAIL. ..PETERS.. 07/05/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX... 36878889 37938802 38938812 38978569 37628562 36738600 36708857 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 6 17:40:38 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 06 Jul 2004 12:40:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407051741.i65HfS101635@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 051740 SWOMCD SPC MCD 051740 NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-SDZ000-WYZ000-051945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1520 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1240 PM CDT MON JUL 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NEB...NERN CO...NWRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 051740Z - 051945Z THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS DEVELOPING FROM SWRN SD INTO SERN WY...AS WELL AS N CENTRAL CO...AHEAD OF STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVE. STRONG HEATING AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT ALONG A CDR - CYS LINE ALONG WITH RAPID COOLING ALOFT WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES AND INCREASE INSTABILITY. MBW PROFILER IN SERN WY INDICATES STRONG WLY FLOW OF 30-55 KTS ABOVE 2 KM AGL. THIS WIND ENERGY WILL HELP PRODUCE FAST SELY STORM MOTIONS OF 25-35 MPH. FAST MOTIONS COMBINED WITH LOWERING SURFACE RH LEVELS SUGGEST DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. HAIL WILL BE LIKELY AS WELL WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS...BUT WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY LARGE DUE TO MARGINAL INSTABILITY. ..JEWELL.. 07/05/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS... 39360510 40430497 40990412 41510375 42230316 43050256 42289999 40239994 39310103 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 6 20:00:30 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 06 Jul 2004 15:00:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407052001.i65K1O116622@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 052000 SWOMCD SPC MCD 052000 ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-052100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1521 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0300 PM CDT MON JUL 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN IA/NERN MO INTO WEST CENTRAL IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 052000Z - 052100Z PORTIONS OF SERN IA/NERN MO INTO WEST CENTRAL IL ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A WW. 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A LOW OVER SWRN IA...JUST W OF DSM... WITH A BOUNDARY EXTENDING EWD INTO CENTRAL IL TO THE N OF PIA. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW. AIR MASS ACROSS THE AREA OF CONCERN HAS BEEN SLOW TO DESTABILIZE /MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG/... DESPITE SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THIS APPEARS TO BE THE RESULT OF WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING AT MID-LEVELS WITH A POCKET OF WARM 500 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -8 C/KM. HOWEVER...AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON AS COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND STRONGER UVVS WITH A WELL-DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROUGH...EXTENDING FROM WRN IA TO ERN KS...SPREAD EWD OVER SRN IA/NRN MO TO WRN IL. INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR COMBINED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...WHILE BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SHOULD ALLOW FOR A TORNADO THREAT. ..PETERS.. 07/05/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX... 40509391 41839409 41889210 41619021 39869042 39689278 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 6 20:08:44 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 06 Jul 2004 15:08:44 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407052009.i65K9S119433@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 052008 SWOMCD SPC MCD 052008 DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-DCZ000-052215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1522 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0308 PM CDT MON JUL 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN VA...ERN MD / DE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 052008Z - 052215Z A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING AND MOVING SEWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT. A WW IS BEING CONSIDERED. VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE HAS DEVELOPED WITH MLCAPE VALUES 2000-2500 J/KG. SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS PERSIST E OF APPALACHIANS FROM SERN PA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL VA. A CONTINUATION OF HEATING WILL ALLOW ADDITIONAL STORMS TO FORM WITHIN THESE AREAS. POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES INDICATE HAIL THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL. AREA VWPS INDICATE 20-40 KTS OF WLY FLOW ABOVE 2 KM...WHICH IS CAUSING SELY STORM MOTIONS AROUND 20 KT. STORMS MAY GAIN STRENGTH AS THEY FORWARD PROPAGATE INTO STRONG INSTABILITY...WITH DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. ..JEWELL.. 07/05/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RNK... 39487704 39667582 38627476 36537589 36667797 37257904 38467864 39257764 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 6 20:43:56 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 06 Jul 2004 15:43:56 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407052044.i65Kie131055@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 052044 SWOMCD SPC MCD 052043 ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-052215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1523 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0343 PM CDT MON JUL 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KS / NERN OK / CENTRAL MO / WRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 052043Z - 052215Z A WW WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY FOR MO AND IL. EXTREME INSTABILITY PER SGF 18Z MODIFIED SOUNDING WITH LI TO -14. AREA VWPS INDICATE FAVORABLE SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS MARGINAL BUT GIVEN EXTREME INSTABILITY A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. VERY LARGE HAIL LIKELY WITH STRONGEST STORMS ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS. AREAS TO FARTHER SW...INTO SERN KS AND NERN OK...HAVE A STRONGER CAP...BUT TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED IN THESE AREAS. ..JEWELL.. 07/05/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT... 38559455 39489104 38988934 37758934 37309132 36159541 37209612 37879618 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 6 21:21:36 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 06 Jul 2004 16:21:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407052122.i65LMJ110965@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 052121 SWOMCD SPC MCD 052121 ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-052315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1525 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0421 PM CDT MON JUL 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN OK...SRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 052121Z - 052315Z SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR LIKELY AND A WW WILL BE REQUIRED. EXTREME INSTABILITY IN PLACE OVER SRN KS / NRN OK. CIN IS ALMOST GONE OVER CENTRAL OK AS TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE 90S. SOME CIN REMAINS OVER SRN KS WHERE IT IS COOLER...BUT SLY LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION MAY ERASE CAP BY LATER AFTERNOON / EARLY EVENING. MODIFIED 18Z LMN SOUNDING INDICATES ABOUT 4000 J/KG MLCAPE WITH LI ON THE ORDER OF - 12. AREA VWPS AND PROFILERS INDICATE SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS WITH 30-40 KT MID LEVEL FLOW...WHICH IS BACKING IN ADVANCE OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH. VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES SEVERAL AREAS OF POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT FROM N CENTRAL OK INTO SRN KS...WITHIN BROAD LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ZONE. ETA AND RUC MODELS BOTH INDICATE DEVELOPMENT WILL TAKE PLACE OVER NRN OK BUT DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE ANYWHERE WITHIN DISCUSSION AREA. ..JEWELL.. 07/05/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC... 35979459 35829812 36219999 38039999 38049465 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 6 21:37:12 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 06 Jul 2004 16:37:12 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407052137.i65Lbt116514@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 052137 SWOMCD SPC MCD 052136 OKZ000-TXZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-052230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1526 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0436 PM CDT MON JUL 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO...SWRN KS...WRN OK...TX PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 052136Z - 052230Z ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SOON... VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND STRONG SUNSHINE HAVE REDUCED INHIBITION ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. EXTREME INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED AND WITH TIME AN INCREASING LLJ SHOULD ENHANCE CONVERGENCE AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN INCREASING/DEEPENING CU FIELD FROM THE ERN OK PANHANDLE...SWD INTO THE ERN TX PANHANDLE. RAPID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT EARLY IN THE CONVECTIVE CYCLE. WITH TIME AN MCS MAY EVOLVE AND SPREAD EAST TOWARD WRN OK. IN ADDITION...CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CO. THIS ACTIVITY MAY SPREAD SEWD TOWARD SWRN KS/WRN OK PANHANDLE LATE THIS EVENING. ..DARROW.. 07/05/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ... 33610137 35610242 36430328 38480276 37879963 34589874 33599961 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 6 22:52:18 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 06 Jul 2004 17:52:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407052253.i65Mr1106442@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 052252 SWOMCD SPC MCD 052252 NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-060015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1527 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0552 PM CDT MON JUL 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NEB...NWRN KS...ERN CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 563... VALID 052252Z - 060015Z UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO FORCE CLUSTER OF STORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW-END SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY A DAMAGING WIND THREAT LATER THIS EVENING. SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES LARGE AREA OF PRESSURE RISES BEHIND OUTFLOW ENHANCED COLD FRONT...WITH LARGE VALUES OF DCAPE OVER 1300 J/KG. GIVEN STRONG FORCING...STORMS WILL LIKELY ORGANIZE INTO A SEVERE MCS WHICH WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT WINDS. ..JEWELL.. 07/05/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS... 39830387 42050251 41849983 40819922 39309964 38660167 38880333 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 6 23:31:16 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 06 Jul 2004 18:31:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407052331.i65NVx118109@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 052331 SWOMCD SPC MCD 052330 ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-MNZ000-060030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1528 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0630 PM CDT MON JUL 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...IA...WRN IL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 566... VALID 052330Z - 060030Z ...ISOLATED TORNADOES REMAIN POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG E-W SFC BOUNDARY... CENTER OF UPPER VORT/LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT ENEWD ACROSS CENTRAL IA WITH THE DEEPEST CONVECTION OBSERVED IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF CIRCULATION. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...LOW LEVEL SHEAR ALONG STATIONARY BOUNDARY MAY AID STORM ROTATION/LOCAL TORNADIC THREAT AS THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS DEVELOP EWD INTO EXTREME SWRN WI AND NWRN IL. ..DARROW.. 07/05/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...EAX... 40509254 41649289 42089404 42889442 43669299 42889079 41478918 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 7 00:05:51 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 06 Jul 2004 19:05:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407060006.i6606Y126936@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 060005 SWOMCD SPC MCD 060005 ILZ000-MOZ000-060100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1529 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0705 PM CDT MON JUL 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...MO...WRN IL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 565... VALID 060005Z - 060100Z SRN INFLUENCE FROM UPPER TROUGH AXIS APPEARS PARTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR ONGOING ACTIVITY SPREADING NEWD ALONG THE I-44 CORRIDOR BETWEEN SGF AND STL. MORE OBVIOUS LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE ZONE IS LOCATED FARTHER NW EXTENDING FROM CLARK COUNTY IN NERN MO...SWWD TO JUST SOUTH OF MKC. IF THIS NRN BOUNDARY DOES NOT CONVECT SOON ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN ISOLATED AS IT SPREADS INTO WCNTRL IL. ..DARROW.. 07/06/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...SGF... 37659333 38539242 39409050 39288908 38548964 37369235 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 7 00:11:10 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 06 Jul 2004 19:11:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407060011.i660Br128461@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 060010 SWOMCD SPC MCD 060010 KSZ000-NEZ000-060115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1530 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0710 PM CDT MON JUL 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND ERN NEB...N CENTRAL KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 060010Z - 060115Z SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE. A NEW WW WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY. INSTABILITY IS INCREASING INTO NEB AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AND TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL WITH SHORTWAVE. AREA PROFILERS INDICATE WIND PROFILES ARE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WITH UP TO 55 KT MID LEVEL FLOW. SUPERCELLS MOST LIKELY CENTRAL AND ERN NEB BEFORE OUTFLOWS MERGE AND STORMS FORM INTO SEVERE MCS. ..JEWELL.. 07/06/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD... 38829783 38980009 42330124 42189696 38779588 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 7 00:41:15 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 06 Jul 2004 19:41:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407060041.i660fw103857@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 060040 SWOMCD SPC MCD 060040 NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-060145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1531 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0740 PM CDT MON JUL 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN VA...WRN NC...WRN SC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 568... VALID 060040Z - 060145Z ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE CANCELED EARLY... LONG-LIVED MCS THAT TRACKED ACROSS THE TN VALLEY HAS ALL BUT LOST ITS INTENSITY AS IT MOVED INTO WRN NC. WIDESPREAD LIGHT-MODERATE RAIN IN THE WAKE OF THE WIND SHIFT HAS GENERATED A COLD POOL WHICH WILL MODIFY AS IT SPREADS EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. IF LEADING ACTIVITY DOES NOT BEGIN TO INCREASE SHORTLY WW MAY BE CANCELED EARLY. ..DARROW.. 07/06/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RNK...GSP...MRX... 34908355 36168250 36938173 36278079 34658176 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 7 00:54:22 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 06 Jul 2004 19:54:22 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407060055.i660tB107611@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 060054 SWOMCD SPC MCD 060054 MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-060230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1532 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0754 PM CDT MON JUL 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN OK...SRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 567... VALID 060054Z - 060230Z SEVERE STORM CLUSTER OVER NRN OK WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO REGENERATE NEW UPDRAFTS ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES DUE TO VERY STRONG INSTABILITY IN PLACE...DESPITE ABSENCE OF LARGE SCALE FORCING. ADDITIONAL WW APPEARS LIKELY FOR PARTS OF THE AREA AFTER WW 567 EXPIRES...AS SEVERE WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT. ..JEWELL.. 07/06/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC... 35989648 36249872 38399881 38029461 35829462 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 7 01:50:59 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 06 Jul 2004 20:50:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407060151.i661pg122539@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 060151 SWOMCD SPC MCD 060150 NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-060245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1533 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0850 PM CDT MON JUL 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NEB...WRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 569...570... VALID 060150Z - 060245Z ...SEVERE WIND THREAT APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS... INTENSIFYING SQUALL LINE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL NEB...SWWD INTO NWRN KS EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPAND AND SURGE SEWD AS IT PROPAGATES INTO INTENSIFYING LLJ FROM WRN OK INTO CENTRAL KS. 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM THE PLAINS AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY INDICATE VERY STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ON THE ORDER OF 8-9C/KM...AND SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR TO SUPPORT LONG-LIVED MCS AS CONVECTION SPREADS SEWD. ..DARROW.. 07/06/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...PUB... 38020278 38930107 41369820 41649741 40849714 38599863 37590141 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 7 02:29:51 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 06 Jul 2004 21:29:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407060230.i662UX102566@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 060229 SWOMCD SPC MCD 060229 ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-060330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1534 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0929 PM CDT MON JUL 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IL/SRN WI CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 566... VALID 060229Z - 060330Z SQUALL LINE NOW MOVING INTO NWRN IL MAY REMAIN SEVERE FOR A SHORT TIME AFTER THE WATCH EXPIRES...BUT A NEW WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. 00Z SOUNDING FROM ILX SUGGESTS AIRMASS ACROSS SRN WI AND NRN IL IS NOT AS UNSTABLE...WITH TEMPS ONLY IN THE 60S...AND AIRMASS IS DRIER FARTHER EAST INFLUENCED BY A LAKE BREEZE THAT HAS BEEN ADVECTED INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. HOWEVER...FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL CERTAINLY SUPPORT A THREAT FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITHIN THE LINE. THE NRN END OF THE LINE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN...WHILE THE SRN PART OF THE LINE MAY MAINTAIN ITSELF...ESPECIALLY IF STRONG FORWARD PROPAGATION CONTINUES AND STORMS CAN MOVE SOUTHEAST WHERE THE AIRMASS IS MORE UNSTABLE. SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ..TAYLOR.. 07/06/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX... 41228932 40689116 42159177 43489286 43589109 43208956 41968872 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 7 04:14:27 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 06 Jul 2004 23:14:27 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407060415.i664F9102657@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 060414 SWOMCD SPC MCD 060414 INZ000-ILZ000-060545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1535 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1114 PM CDT MON JUL 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL IL/WRN IN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 060414Z - 060545Z LATEST RADAR IMAGERY FROM CENTRAL IL RADAR SHOWS OUTFLOW IS BEGINNING TO OUTRUN THE MAIN CONVECTIVE LINE. HOWEVER...DEVELOPING BOW ECHO ACROSS WOODWARD COUNTY WILL POSE A THREAT FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS...AND THIS THREAT POSSIBLY EXTENDS AS FAR EAST AS MCLEAN/LIVINGSTON COUNTIES. GUSTS UP TO 38 KT HAVE BEEN REPORTED AS THE STORMS WENT THROUGH PIA...AS WELL AS A REPORT OF A TORNADO IN WOODWARD COUNTY. WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM CWI/PNT/IKK...AND DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY ARE IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S WITH FAVORABLY LOW LCL HEIGHTS. IN ADDITION...LATEST VAD WIND DATA FROM CENTRAL IL INDICATE VEERING PROFILE WITH HEIGHT...WITH NEARLY 30 KT LOW LEVEL SHEAR. NRN EXTENT OF LINE IS PROBABLY BECOMING MORE ELEVATED AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WRN SUBURBS OF CHICAGO. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO HOW FAR/LONG STORMS SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL LAST DUE TO AMOUNT OF INHIBITION. IF STORMS CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN THEMSELVES...A WW MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED DOWNSTREAM. ..TAYLOR.. 07/06/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...DVN... 39628826 39718975 40319039 41138937 41098760 40718697 39628716 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 7 04:31:55 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 06 Jul 2004 23:31:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407060432.i664Wh107280@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 060431 SWOMCD SPC MCD 060431 KSZ000-NEZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-060530- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1536 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1131 PM CDT MON JUL 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NEB...KS...NWRN OK...TX PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 569...570...572... VALID 060431Z - 060530Z ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS SHORTLY... SEVERE SQUALL LINE IS SURGING SEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AIDED BY INCREASING PRESSURE RISES IMMEDIATELY IN THE WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY...ROUGHLY 3-5MB 2HR RISES...FROM SRN NEB INTO SERN CO. DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD ACCOMPANY THIS SQUALL LINE AS IT PROPAGATES ACROSS MOST OF KS INTO NRN OK AND EVENTUALLY PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE. WW WILL BE ISSUED SOON FOR PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS REPLACING WATCH 569. ..DARROW.. 07/06/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...AMA...PUB... 37240223 37430082 38189928 39419866 40419670 39419662 36889770 35529840 35130066 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 7 04:45:02 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 06 Jul 2004 23:45:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407060445.i664jl111590@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 060445 SWOMCD SPC MCD 060444 INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-060615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1537 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1144 PM CDT MON JUL 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MO/SRN IL/SWRN IN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 571... VALID 060444Z - 060615Z COMPLICATED MCS ACROSS SRN IL CONTINUES TO POSE MAINLY A DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL THREAT. LEADING EDGE OF STORMS EXTENDS FROM RSV/AJG/HSB AND SURGING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS APPARENT FROM LATEST RADAR IMAGES. MAIN CONCERN IS FOR BACKBUILDING NEXT FEW HOURS...WHICH WILL PROLONG THE SEVERE THREAT AND HEAVY RAIN ACROSS ERN MO/ST LOUIS AREA. STRONG 500MB DIFFLUENCE MAY BE CONTRIBUTING TO INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST SYSTEM WILL BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN ITSELF INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LATEST PROFILER/VAD WIND DATA SHOW MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF AROUND 35-45 KT. IT SEEMS FORWARD PROPAGATION COMPONENT COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE WLY FLOW ALOFT MAY ALLOW SYSTEM TO SPREAD INTO SRN IN. ..TAYLOR.. 07/06/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX... 37898829 37979115 39189154 39548976 39568748 39158688 37938736 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 7 06:17:15 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 07 Jul 2004 01:17:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407060618.i666I2103594@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 060617 SWOMCD SPC MCD 060616 MOZ000-KSZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-060815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1538 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0116 AM CDT TUE JUL 06 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AND ERN KS...OK AND NERN TX PNHDLS...NWRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 572...573... VALID 060616Z - 060815Z LARGE SCALE LINEAR MCS WITH SEVERE WIND AND HAIL EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING E/SE ACROSS WATCHES 572 AND 573 NEXT FEW HOURS. NEW WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITHIN 2 HOURS TO COVER PORTIONS OF SCNTRL AND NERN OK/NWRN AR...AS WELL AS ERN KS INTO WRN MO. WELL ORGANIZED LARGE SCALE BOW ECHO COMPLEX WILL CONTINUE TO BE FUELED BY VERY MOIST AND STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS OK/KS THROUGH 09Z/4AM CDT. STRONG PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE LINE AND FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE DYNAMICS IN THE FORM OF 500MB HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING WNWLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL FURTHER SUSTAIN THE SYSTEM AS IT SPREADS E AND SEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS. CURRENTLY...THE GREATEST WIND THREAT APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ACCELERATING EMBEDDED SMALL SCALE BOW MOVING ACROSS WOODWARD AND WOODS COUNTIES IN NW OK. IN KS...VERY HIGH REFLECTIVITY WAS NOTED ALONG THE LINE FROM ICT RADAR WITH STRONG...POTENTIALLY DAMAGING...OUTFLOW WINDS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS ICT AREA IN ABOUT AN HOUR. ..CARBIN.. 07/06/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EAX...TSA...OAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...AMA...PUB... 35369629 35340073 37560290 37589894 40629696 40559431 36319639 36389703 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 7 07:45:54 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 07 Jul 2004 02:45:54 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407060746.i667ka127935@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 060746 SWOMCD SPC MCD 060745 MOZ000-KSZ000-060945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1539 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0245 AM CDT TUE JUL 06 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS AND NRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 060745Z - 060945Z STRONG MESOSCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL SPREAD EAST FROM NERN KS AND INTO NRN MO OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. GIVEN VERY MOIST AND STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THESE AREAS...A SEVERE TSTM WATCH WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED PRIOR TO 09Z. LATEST ANALYSIS DEPICTS SMALL SCALE WAVE CYCLONE COINCIDENT WITH DEEP CONVECTION ON NRN SEGMENT OF THE SQUALL LINE OVER NERN KS. DEEP BAND OF CONFLUENT LOW LEVEL FLOW WAS SITUATED TO THE EAST OF THIS MESOLOW...TO THE SOUTH OF TOP/MKC AREAS...AND THEN EAST TO STL. STORMS HAVE BEEN INCREASING WITHIN THIS FRONTOGENETIC ZONE AS MOISTURE INFLUX AND ASCENT ON STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET ACT TO OVERCOME WEAK INHIBITION. WHILE REGION ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY RESIDES BENEATH RELATIVELY WEAK MIDLEVEL FLOW BETWEEN CNTRL PLAINS SHORT WAVE AND MIDWEST SHORT WAVE...DEEP LAYER SHEAR ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR PERSISTENT UPDRAFTS AND STORM ORGANIZATION. FURTHERMORE... MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND FORCING SUGGEST SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL SHOULD SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. ..CARBIN.. 07/06/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT... 38439072 37619586 39629565 40219205 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 7 10:18:43 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 07 Jul 2004 05:18:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407061020.i66AKU109479@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 061018 SWOMCD SPC MCD 061018 MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-061215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1540 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0518 AM CDT TUE JUL 06 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS...WRN/CNTRL MO...OK...NWRN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 575...576... VALID 061018Z - 061215Z LARGE AND PROGRESSIVE MCC CONTINUES DEVELOPING EWD/SEWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS THIS MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND SOME HAIL WITHIN LEADING BAND OF INTENSE CONVECTION. LATEST IR IMAGES WERE SHOWING A GRADUALLY WARMING CLOUD CANOPY PERHAPS INDICATIVE OF A SLOW DEMISE. HOWEVER...IT WILL LIKELY BE SEVERAL MORE HOURS BEFORE LARGE STRATIFORM RAIN AREA WEAKENS AND GUST FRONT FORCING SUBSIDES. STRONG BOW ECHO HAS SURGED EAST ACROSS THE SRN MKC AREA THIS MORNING AND MAY REMAIN A FOCUS FOR WIND DAMAGE AS IT TRAVELS ALONG LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE SITUATED ACROSS NCNTRL MO. FARTHER SOUTH...EXTENSIVE ARC OF OUTFLOW WAS MOVING GENERALLY SEWD AT 30-35KT ACROSS CNTRL AND SWRN OK. CURRENT TRACKS ON THESE FEATURES WILL BRING THEM TO THE ERN AND SRN EDGES OF WATCHES 575 AND 576 BY AROUND 13Z/8AM CDT. ..CARBIN.. 07/06/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...SHV...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...FWD...OUN... 33969518 33959958 36969766 39649608 39629160 37009328 36959302 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 7 14:01:22 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 07 Jul 2004 09:01:22 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407061403.i66E3E125312@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 061401 SWOMCD SPC MCD 061400 ILZ000-MOZ000-061500- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1541 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0900 AM CDT TUE JUL 06 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 577... VALID 061400Z - 061500Z ISOLATED WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL IL THIS MORNING...BUT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING. WW MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM NERN MO INTO CENTRAL IL. AN EMBEDDED BAND OF STORMS FROM ADAMS TO CALHOUN COUNTIES IL WAS MOVING TO THE ENE AT 40 KT...WHILE THE LEADING STORMS OVER LOGAN TO MACOUPIN COUNTIES HAVE DECREASED IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE LAST HALF HOUR. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DECELERATE DURING THE NEXT HOUR AS IT MOVES ENEWD INTO A MORE STABLE AIR MASS ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL IL. WW MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY DUE TO OVERALL EXPECTED DECREASE IN SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AIR MASS FARTHER DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE OH VALLEY REGION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR NEW TSTM DEVELOPMENT AND SEVERE THREAT. ..PETERS.. 07/06/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN... 39169108 40489129 40658930 40658762 39348763 39148825 39008907 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 6 16:01:53 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 06 Jul 2004 11:01:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407061602.i66G2a113718@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 061601 SWOMCD SPC MCD 061601 KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-061700- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1542 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1101 AM CDT TUE JUL 06 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN MO/SRN IL/FAR SWRN IND/WRN KY AND NERN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 061601Z - 061700Z WW BEING CONSIDERED FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEYS FROM SERN MO/NERN AR TO SRN IL/SWRN IND/WRN KY...WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. VIS IMAGERY SHOWS CU/TCU DEVELOPING FAIRLY RAPIDLY OVER THE AREA OF CONCERN...WHERE STRONG SURFACE HEATING IS WEAKENING THE CAP. THIS HEATING COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S/ IS RESULTING IN MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE UP TO 2000-2500 J/KG/. STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS MOVING EWD ACROSS ERN KS/ERN OK ATTM PER WV IMAGERY WITH VAD/WIND PROFILER DATA SHOWING 40-45 KT MID-LEVEL FLOW WITH THIS FEATURE. INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEYS...AND SOMEWHAT WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL LIKELY ENCOURAGE SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS. SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION...WHILE UNI-DIRECTIONAL WIND FIELD WILL FAVOR DAMAGING WINDS...WITH HAIL ALSO A THREAT GIVEN MODERATE TO EXPECTED VERY STRONG INSTABILITY. ..PETERS.. 07/06/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF... 36579275 38919027 39418805 38508678 36718687 36238985 36079182 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 6 18:35:56 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 06 Jul 2004 13:35:56 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407061836.i66Iak117540@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 061836 SWOMCD SPC MCD 061835 KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-061900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1543 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0135 PM CDT TUE JUL 06 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KY AND MIDDLE TN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 061835Z - 061900Z WW WILL BE ISSUED SOON FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL KY AND MIDDLE TN. AIR MASS ACROSS CENTRAL KY AND MIDDLE TN CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE AND IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF NEW SEVERE STORMS AND/OR ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES ENEWD FROM WW 578. ..PETERS.. 07/06/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...HUN...PAH...MEG... 38578682 38488390 34968565 35008919 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 6 19:34:41 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 06 Jul 2004 14:34:41 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407061935.i66JZO111233@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 061934 SWOMCD SPC MCD 061934 KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-ILZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-062030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1544 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0234 PM CDT TUE JUL 06 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN MO/NERN AR/SRN IL/SRN IND/WRN-CENTRAL KY/WRN-MIDDLE TN/NRN MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 578...579... VALID 061934Z - 062030Z THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF SERN MO/NERN AR EWD TO SRN IL/SRN IND/WRN-CENTRAL KY/WRN-MIDDLE TN AND NRN MS. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS WW 578 WITHIN REGION THAT HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE...IN ADVANCE OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS NRN AR/SRN MO. AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRACKS ENEWD TOWARD THE LOWER OH VALLEY...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL OVER THE ERN PORTION OF WW 578 WILL MOVE INTO WRN PORTIONS OF WW 579 DURING THE NEXT HOUR. STORMS ACROSS SERN MO AND SRN IL ARE LOCATED CLOSER TO STRONGER FLOW ALOFT AND...THUS...ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF BETTER STORM ORGANIZATION INTO LINE SEGMENTS. PARAMETERS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL...WITH A GREATER THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE WITH ANY ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS/COLD POOLS. ..PETERS.. 07/06/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...HUN...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...SGF... 34619039 36049012 36959135 38569027 38748537 34918692 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 6 19:54:07 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 06 Jul 2004 14:54:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407061954.i66Jsp119709@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 061954 SWOMCD SPC MCD 061953 MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-062030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1545 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0253 PM CDT TUE JUL 06 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NRN/CENTRAL IL INTO WRN/NRN IND AND SWRN LOWER MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 061953Z - 062030Z THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN AND CENTRAL IL...ALONG A ZONE OF CONVERGENCE EXTENDING FROM NEAR CHICAGO SWWD TO JUST NORTH OF STL. WW WILL BE ISSUED SOON FOR THIS REGION AND EXTENDING EWD INTO WRN/NRN IND AND SWRN LOWER MI. 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A LOW OVER NRN LAKE MICHIGAN...NEAR GRB...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD NEAR CHICAGO TO NRN IL AND NRN MO. OBJECTIVE ANALYSES CONTINUE TO INDICATE INCREASING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS NRN IL IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY...WITH VIS IMAGERY SHOWING AN AREA OF SURFACE BASED CU. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED A STORM TRIED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THIS ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER NORTH CENTRAL IL...A SIGNAL THAT THE CAP IS WEAKENING. AIR MASS ALONG AND EAST OF THE COLD FRONT IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE...WITH 40 KT OF SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS. ..PETERS.. 07/06/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LMK...IWX...GRR...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX... 38599031 42168843 42068478 38578674 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 6 20:32:51 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 06 Jul 2004 15:32:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407062033.i66KXc104959@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 062032 SWOMCD SPC MCD 062031 OKZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-062300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1546 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0331 PM CDT TUE JUL 06 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SE CO/ERN NM/TX PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 062031Z - 062300Z TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/PROPAGATE SEWD ACROSS FAR SE CO/NE NM REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON. WE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR TSTM INITIATION ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN EITHER OR BOTH SCENARIOS...SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SOON. 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS/LATEST VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLY MORNING CONVECTION ACROSS THE SRN TX PANHANDLE INTO N TX...ROUGHLY FROM CVS-LBB VICINITIES TO NORTH OF DFW METROPLEX. IN ADDITION...CU FIELD ALSO EVIDENT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK COLD FRONT FROM THE NRN TX PANHANDLE INTO CNTRL OK. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS RELATIVELY HIGHEST PROBABILITY SCENARIO WILL BE TSTMS ORGANIZING INTO ONE OR MORE COMPLEXES ACROSS FAR SE CO/ERN NM AND PROPAGATING INTO WRN TX /AND POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF WRN OK/ LATER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ALONG AFOREMENTIONED SFC BOUNDARIES MAY ALSO BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE ISOLD TSTMS ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. W/NW MID LEVEL WINDS ABOVE BACKED E/SE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30-35 KTS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. OVERALL MAIN SEVERE HAZARD LIKELY TO BE LARGE HAIL OWING TO MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY /2000-3000 J/KG MLCAPE/ AND STEEP MID LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 8.0 C/KG. THREAT FOR AN ISOLD TORNADO MAY EXIST AS WELL...NAMELY IN VICINITY OF REMNANT BOUNDARIES. ..GUYER.. 07/06/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...MAF...PUB...ABQ... 37330501 37650400 37160275 35740133 34919954 33709965 33459991 32960083 32910145 33060346 34310462 35200495 35910512 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 6 21:35:18 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 06 Jul 2004 16:35:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407062136.i66La0132608@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 062135 SWOMCD SPC MCD 062134 MIZ000-062300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1547 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0434 PM CDT TUE JUL 06 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN LOWER MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 062134Z - 062300Z TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS CNTRL/SRN LOWER MI REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...WW MAY BE NEEDED WITHIN THE HOUR. AIRMASS ACROSS SRN LOWER MI CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE...WITH MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000-1500 J/KG AND NEGLIGIBLE CINH PER LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS AND MODIFIED 18Z DTX SOUNDING. STRONG AMBIENT WIND FIELDS /SUPPORTED BY 40 KT WLY MID LEVEL FLOW/ WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. MAIN HAZARD LIKELY TO BE DAMAGING WINDS...WITH LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE AS WELL. THREAT FOR AN ISOLD TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALSO EXIST...PARTICULARLY IN MIDST OF BACKED SLY/SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW ACROSS ERN PORTION OF LOWER MI WHERE 0-1 KM SHEAR WILL BE MAXIMIZED. ..GUYER.. 07/06/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR... 44058645 44248475 43908273 42818203 41788295 41868414 41838506 41858639 42358632 43018637 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 6 22:38:10 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 06 Jul 2004 17:38:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407062238.i66Mcq124106@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 062238 SWOMCD SPC MCD 062237 KYZ000-ILZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-062330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1548 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0537 PM CDT TUE JUL 06 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO...SRN IL...WRN KY...WRN TN...NERN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 578... VALID 062237Z - 062330Z ...A FEW STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WW MAY BE REISSUED... A SECONDARY LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE ZONE APPEARS PARTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR RECENT INCREASE IN CONVECTION FROM SERN MO INTO NERN AR...THIS DESPITE THE EARLIER TSTM CLUSTERS/MODIFICATION THAT MOVED ACROSS THE REGION. CURRENT THINKING IS NEW DEVELOPMENT MAY CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND BRIEFLY APPROACH SEVERE LEVELS. HOWEVER...DIURNAL COOLING AND MARGINAL INTENSITY MAY NOT REQUIRE AN ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR THIS REGION. ..DARROW.. 07/06/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF... 36189198 37759122 37628880 36038901 35719087 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 7 00:02:45 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 06 Jul 2004 19:02:45 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407070003.i6703S117399@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 070002 SWOMCD SPC MCD 070002 OHZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-070100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1549 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0702 PM CDT TUE JUL 06 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN OH...ERN KY...ERN TN...NERN AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 579...583... VALID 070002Z - 070100Z ...STRONG WINDS MAY OCCUR ALONG LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTION AS IT SPREADS ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEY REGION... A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF CONVECTION...ROUGHLY 50 MI WIDE...HAS EVOLVED ALONG AN AXIS FROM SWRN OH INTO NRN AL. MULTIPLE BANDED STORM MERGERS AND AN EXPANDING PRECIPITATION SHIELD SHOULD MAINTAIN OR ENHANCE EWD MOVEMENT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF ERN KY/TN TOWARD THE CREST OF THE APPALACHIANS LATER THIS EVENING. A SLOW DOWNWARD TREND IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED AS BOUNDARY COOLS AND ACTIVITY SPREADS TOWARD ERN PORTIONS OF WW. STRONG WINDS HOWEVER MAY ACCOMPANY LEADING EDGE OF THIS CONVECTION FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ..DARROW.. 07/07/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...FFC...ILN...LMK...OHX...HUN... 34548685 36978527 39208423 39468271 37238365 34468562 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 7 01:02:59 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 06 Jul 2004 20:02:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407070103.i6713k103510@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 070103 SWOMCD SPC MCD 070102 TXZ000-NMZ000-070230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1550 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0802 PM CDT TUE JUL 06 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM/WRN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 581... VALID 070102Z - 070230Z SEMI-ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS OF ERN NM INTO PORTIONS OF WRN TX WITH ATTENDANT SEVERE THREAT...CONTINUE VALID PORTION OF WW 581 /SEE LATEST WW STATUS/. AREA ACROSS WRN TX SOUTH OF WW 581 WILL BE MONITORED FOR AN ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE. CAPPING INVERSION EVIDENT IN 00Z AMA SOUNDING IS EXPECTED TO INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE NRN TX PANHANDLE...STABILIZED IN POST-FRONTAL/OUTFLOW AIRMASS. FURTHER SOUTH...AIRMASS REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE ACROSS SE NM INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS OF TX/TRANSPECOS REGION. TSTM CLUSTERS WILL LIKELY SPREAD SEWD INTO THIS REGION...SUPPORTED BY INSTABILITY AXIS AND DEVELOPING SLY 30 KT LOW LEVEL JET. AT LEAST AN ISOLD SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS OWING TO DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL SHEAR. ..GUYER.. 07/07/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...EPZ... 35330471 35220122 34720086 32990050 31830056 31510202 31650374 32340492 33390534 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 7 01:04:04 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 06 Jul 2004 20:04:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407070104.i6714j104167@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 070104 SWOMCD SPC MCD 070103 MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-070200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1551 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0803 PM CDT TUE JUL 06 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LOWER MI...NWRN OH...IND...ERN IL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 580...582... VALID 070103Z - 070200Z ...DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR THE MAIN THREAT WITH ONGOING TSTM ACTIVITY... 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM THE OH VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION DEPICT MODEST DEEP LAYER WLY FLOW AHEAD OF UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE OVER THE MS VALLEY. CONVECTION THAT HAS DEVELOPED FROM ERN IL INTO LOWER MI HAS STRUGGLED TO INTENSIFY...POSSIBLY DUE TO MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...LAPSE RATES ON THE ORDER OF 6-6.5 AND SBCAPE ROUGHLY 1000J/KG. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION BUT OVERALL TRENDS SUGGEST ONLY ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY THE MAIN THREAT. ..DARROW.. 07/07/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX... 39818840 41068742 42368647 43278332 42698253 39828658 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 7 01:04:21 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 06 Jul 2004 20:04:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407070105.i6715K104388@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 070103 SWOMCD SPC MCD 070102 TXZ000-NMZ000-070230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1550 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0802 PM CDT TUE JUL 06 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM/WRN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 581... VALID 070102Z - 070230Z SEMI-ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS OF ERN NM INTO PORTIONS OF WRN TX WITH ATTENDANT SEVERE THREAT...CONTINUE VALID PORTION OF WW 581 /SEE LATEST WW STATUS/. AREA ACROSS WRN TX SOUTH OF WW 581 WILL BE MONITORED FOR AN ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE. CAPPING INVERSION EVIDENT IN 00Z AMA SOUNDING IS EXPECTED TO INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE NRN TX PANHANDLE...STABILIZED IN POST-FRONTAL/OUTFLOW AIRMASS. FURTHER SOUTH...AIRMASS REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE ACROSS SE NM INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS OF TX/TRANSPECOS REGION. TSTM CLUSTERS WILL LIKELY SPREAD SEWD INTO THIS REGION...SUPPORTED BY INSTABILITY AXIS AND DEVELOPING SLY 30 KT LOW LEVEL JET. AT LEAST AN ISOLD SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS OWING TO DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL SHEAR. ..GUYER.. 07/07/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...EPZ... 35330471 35220122 34720086 32990050 31830056 31510202 31650374 32340492 33390534  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 7 01:06:40 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 06 Jul 2004 20:06:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407070107.i6717M104815@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 070104 SWOMCD SPC MCD 070103 MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-070200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1551 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0803 PM CDT TUE JUL 06 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LOWER MI...NWRN OH...IND...ERN IL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 580...582... VALID 070103Z - 070200Z ...DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR THE MAIN THREAT WITH ONGOING TSTM ACTIVITY... 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM THE OH VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION DEPICT MODEST DEEP LAYER WLY FLOW AHEAD OF UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE OVER THE MS VALLEY. CONVECTION THAT HAS DEVELOPED FROM ERN IL INTO LOWER MI HAS STRUGGLED TO INTENSIFY...POSSIBLY DUE TO MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...LAPSE RATES ON THE ORDER OF 6-6.5 AND SBCAPE ROUGHLY 1000J/KG. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION BUT OVERALL TRENDS SUGGEST ONLY ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY THE MAIN THREAT. ..DARROW.. 07/07/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX... 39818840 41068742 42368647 43278332 42698253 39828658  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 7 04:49:09 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 06 Jul 2004 23:49:09 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407070449.i674np107502@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 070449 SWOMCD SPC MCD 070448 OKZ000-TXZ000-070615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1552 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1148 PM CDT TUE JUL 06 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN OK...NWRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 070448Z - 070615Z ...THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING ACROSS SWRN OK AND PORTIONS OF NWRN TX... SUSTAINED WEAK WARM ADVECTION...PER FDR/TLX VAD WINDS...HAS FINALLY FORCED PARCELS TO LFC AND ELEVATED CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO BREAK OUT ACROSS MUCH OF SWRN OK AND EXTREME NWRN TX NEAR CDS. THIS ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE TO EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE GIVEN THE 00Z SOUNDING OBSERVED AT OUN...STEEP LAPSE RATES...MINIMAL INHIBITION...AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.8 INCHES. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE A BIT WARM AND MOIST TO SUPPORT MORE THAN MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL. WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME BUT WILL BE MONITORED FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THIS ACTIVITY. ..DARROW.. 07/07/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB... 34480028 35479889 35309752 33849729 33039982 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 7 06:57:36 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 07 Jul 2004 01:57:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407070658.i676wM111693@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 070656 SWOMCD SPC MCD 070655 OKZ000-TXZ000-070830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1553 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0155 AM CDT WED JUL 07 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN TX AND SWRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 584...585... VALID 070655Z - 070830Z BOW ECHO NOW OVER STONEWALL...FISHER...NOLAN...AND MITCHELL COUNTIES OF NWRN TX WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST AT 40-45KT WITH POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS. SYSTEM HAS WELL DEVELOPED COLD POOL AND FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL INFLOW WHICH SHOULD SUSTAIN RAPID SEWD PROPAGATION THROUGH THE SRN PARTS OF WW 585 OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. FARTHER NORTH...CLUSTER OF SEVERE STORMS WAS CONCENTRATED ACROSS PARTS OF SWRN OK TO THE NORTH OF DIFFUSE FRONTAL BAND/LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE AXIS. SO FAR...THIS CONVECTION HAS SHOWN ERRATIC AND SLOW PROPAGATION WITHIN VEERING WIND PROFILE AND WEAK LOW THROUGH MID LEVEL FLOW. GIVEN VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT SOME HAIL AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM THIS ACTIVITY. THIS ACTIVITY COULD BECOME INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED ALONG EDGE OF A DEEPENING COLD POOL IN A COUPLE HOURS AND PERHAPS SPREAD SEWD ACROSS THE RED RIVER. HOWEVER...THAT TREND IS NOT YET APPARENT IN RADAR LOOPS. ..CARBIN.. 07/07/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF... 31779917 31790197 32910101 32980148 33980182 34180237 34620203 34749997 34909924 34879604 32049854 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 7 08:11:04 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 07 Jul 2004 03:11:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407070811.i678Bm132507@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 070811 SWOMCD SPC MCD 070810 ARZ000-OKZ000-071115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1554 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0310 AM CDT WED JUL 07 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND SERN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 070810Z - 071115Z TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE EWD FROM PORTIONS OF CNTRL OK INTO ERN OK THROUGH DAYBREAK. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD CONTAIN HAIL AND STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS. A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED BUT OVERALL STORM ORGANIZATION REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. WEAK STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS CNTRL AND SRN OK EARLY TODAY. A SUBSYNOPTIC WAVE HAS FORMED ON THE BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OF LTS. LOW LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE/CONFLUENCE AXIS WAS ANALYZED IN 850MB FLOW ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY GENERALLY ALONG A LINE FROM LTS TO NORTH OF MLC. GIVEN PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL ASCENT WITHIN THIS AXIS POSSIBLY ENHANCED BY EWD MOVEMENT OF THE LOW...TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INITIATE ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IN ADDITION TO WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE BOUNDARY...PRC PROFILER DATA SHOWED RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW THROUGH THE TROPOSPHERE WITH 25KT 0-6KM SHEAR. THUS...EXPECT WEAKLY ORGANIZED MULTICELL STORM CHARACTER WITH A SLOW EWD/ESEWD MOTION. MAGNITUDE OF CAPE WOULD SUPPORT A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL COULD ACCOMPANY THE MORE INTENSE UPDRAFTS. REPEAT AND SLOW MOVING STORMS AND WARM CLOUD DEPTH AROUND 3KM ALSO RAISES THE PROSPECT OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. ..CARBIN.. 07/07/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...OUN... 34469468 34469678 34879721 35289741 35919666 35909456 34979422 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 7 15:20:54 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 07 Jul 2004 10:20:54 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407071521.i67FLY127297@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 071521 SWOMCD SPC MCD 071520 MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-071615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1555 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1020 AM CDT WED JUL 07 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN AR AND FAR NRN LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 071520Z - 071615Z THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INCREASING IN INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS SRN AR AS THE DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS DESTABILIZES ACROSS SRN AR/FAR NRN LA INTO CENTRAL MS. WW NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR BETTER STORM ORGANIZATION WITH ONGOING ACTIVITY ACROSS SERN OK INTO WRN AR. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW AN MCV ALONG THE OK/AR BORDER /FROM LE FLORE COUNTY OK TO POLK COUNTY AR/...WHICH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER/MCS OVER THIS REGION. LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW A BOWING STRUCTURE DEVELOPING FROM THE MCV SWWD INTO FAR NERN TX...AND MOVING TO THE ESE AT 25-35 KT. THIS INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS LIKELY RELATED TO A STRENGTHENING COLD POOL WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MIDDLE 60S ACROSS SERN OK...COMPARED TO TEMPERATURES RISING INTO LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S OVER SRN AR/FAR NRN LA. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS FROM THE MCS WILL ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING/SUBSEQUENT BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION...WITH INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDING EWD INTO MS/AL. DESPITE WEAK DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS...STRENGTHENING COLD POOL MAY INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS BY 18Z...ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN AR/FAR NRN LA...AND THEN EWD INTO CENTRAL MS. ..PETERS.. 07/07/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV... 34309363 34219182 33989017 32669036 32689200 32909366 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 7 15:50:18 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 07 Jul 2004 10:50:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407071550.i67Fov109664@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 071549 SWOMCD SPC MCD 071549 MDZ000-NCZ000-VAZ000-071645- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1556 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1049 AM CDT WED JUL 07 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL-ERN VA/PORTIONS SRN MD SWD TO NRN NC CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE VALID 071549Z - 071645Z SLIGHT RISK OVER THE INTERIOR NERN STATES WILL BE EXTENDED SWD ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL-ERN VA/SRN MD TO NRN NC WITH THE 1630Z DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED DURING THE LAST HOUR ALONG THE FOOTHILLS OF CENTRAL VA...WITHIN REGION OF WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINED WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF UPPER OH VALLEY SHORT WAVE TROUGH. AIR MASS OVER CENTRAL-ERN VA/SRN MD SWD TO NRN NC HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE...WHERE STRONG SURFACE HEATING /SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S/ AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS RESULTING IN A MODERATELY TO VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. VAD WIND DATA FROM CENTRAL PA SWWD TO SWRN VA INDICATED A BAND OF 30-40 KT WSWLY LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW WHICH WILL SUPPORT LINE SEGMENTS AND A FEW SPLITTING SUPERCELLS...WITH MAINLY A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS. IF ACTIVITY SHOWS SIGNS OF INCREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY...THEN A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY. ..PETERS.. 07/07/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...RNK... 36587839 37847833 38737719 38577618 36717626 35787673 35577766 35937850 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 7 17:20:29 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 07 Jul 2004 12:20:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407071721.i67HL9120654@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 071720 SWOMCD SPC MCD 071719 MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-IAZ000-071815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1557 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1219 PM CDT WED JUL 07 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NEB/NERN KS/FAR NWRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 071719Z - 071815Z ELEVATED STORMS /ROOTED IN THE 650-700 MB LAYER PER 12Z LBF RAOB AND 15Z RUC POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS/ MAY PRODUCE A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL EVENTS ACROSS SERN NEB INTO NERN KS...AND FAR NWRN MO DURING THE AFTERNOON. 16Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM WEST CENTRAL NEB SEWD TO ERN KS...WITH THE AIR MASS ACROSS SWRN NEB/WRN KS HAVING BECOME MODERATELY TO VERY UNSTABLE. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW A CLUSTER OF STORMS MOVING SEWD ACROSS ERN NEB /ALONG AND TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT/. 25 KT SWLY LLJ EXTENDING FROM WRN KS TO ERN NEB/NERN KS WILL MAINTAIN A FEED OF UNSTABLE AIR INTO THESE ELEVATED STORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AREA VADS/WIND PROFILER DATA INDICATED FAVORABLE DIRECTIONAL AND DEEP LAYER SPEED SHEAR WITHIN THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER FOR ELEVATED SUPERCELLS. COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY...STORMS SHOULD BE ABLE TO SUSTAIN ROTATING UPDRAFTS WITH AN ISOLATED HAIL THREAT. ..PETERS.. 07/07/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID... 38819710 40529847 41649801 41549658 40909577 39619475 39029559 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 7 17:47:57 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 07 Jul 2004 12:47:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407071748.i67Hma101133@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 071748 SWOMCD SPC MCD 071747 FLZ000-GAZ000-071915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1558 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1247 PM CDT WED JUL 07 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...FL PENINSULA NWD TO SRN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 071747Z - 071915Z ISOLATED WET MICROBURSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE FL PENINSULA NWD INTO SRN GA. AIR MASS ACROSS FL INTO SRN GA HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE /MLCAPE 3000+ J/KG/...GIVEN COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES /AROUND -8 C AT 500 MB/ COMBINED WITH A WARM AND VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW STRONG...HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ALONG THE FL WEST COAST SEA BREEZE AND ALONG A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVING EWD ACROSS SRN GA. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THESE SURFACE BOUNDARIES AND LAKE/CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AS THE AIR MASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL TEND TO FAVOR PULSE-TYPE STORMS...WITH FAIRLY HIGH FREEZING/WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AND A MOIST ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTING WET MICROBURSTS AS THE PRIMARY THREAT. ..PETERS.. 07/07/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...FFC...TAE... 26358185 27238238 28368216 29198225 30278280 31358357 32158332 32188222 31578155 30478153 29238124 28628087 27238029 26558046 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 7 18:12:13 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 07 Jul 2004 13:12:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407071812.i67ICq112623@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 071812 SWOMCD SPC MCD 071812 ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-072015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1559 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0112 PM CDT WED JUL 07 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SE AR/NRN MS INTO WRN TN/NRN AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 071812Z - 072015Z TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON MAY POSE ISOLD WET MICROBURST/DAMAGING WIND THREAT. WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. TSTMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP FROM SE AR/NRN MS INTO WRN TN/NRN AL AHEAD OF REMNANT CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ACROSS CNTRL AR AND SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT. AIRMASS IN THIS REGION HAS ALREADY BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE...WITH PLENTIFUL INSOLATION AND LOW/MID 70S SFC DEWPOINTS SUPPORTING 2000-3000 J/KG MLCAPE. 12Z LZK/JAN RAOBS AND LATEST OKOLONA MS PROFILER DATA PORTRAY RATHER WEAK AMBIENT WIND FIELDS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH WLY LOW TO MID LEVEL WINDS OF 15-20 KT OR LESS. GIVEN MODERATE INSTABILITY/MINIMAL SHEAR AND LITTLE BACKGROUND SUPPORT...TSTM MODE WILL BE PRIMARILY PULSE IN NATURE...WITH THREAT FOR ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ISOLD NATURE OF SEVERE THREAT WILL PRECLUDE NECESSITY FOR WW. ..GUYER.. 07/07/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK... 34959154 35499051 36248868 36328777 35078712 33918755 33338857 33209002 33129115 33069158 33399182 33959204 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 7 18:15:34 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 07 Jul 2004 13:15:34 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407071816.i67IGD114635@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 071815 SWOMCD SPC MCD 071814 MTZ000-071945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1560 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0114 PM CDT WED JUL 07 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INTO ERN MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 071814Z - 071945Z THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MT...AND SPREAD EWD. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. WW MAY BE REQUIRED BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. VIS IMAGERY SHOWS CU DEVELOPING FROM BLAINE TO FERGUS COUNTIES WHICH IS ON THE WRN EDGE OF A LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/DEVELOPING INSTABILITY GRADIENT. ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES RISING THROUGH THE 80S OVER ERN MT COMBINED WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 50S WILL RESULT IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY /MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 500 J/KG/. 50 KT MID-LEVEL SWLY SPEED MAX ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG PAC NW MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL NOSE INTO WRN/CENTRAL MT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH UVVS INCREASING WITHIN EXIT REGION/DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR STORM ORGANIZATION... BUT MARGINAL INSTABILITY MAY LIMIT SEVERE COVERAGE. ..PETERS.. 07/07/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX... 47060902 48890874 48830497 46580478 45250513 45330900 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 7 18:35:51 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 07 Jul 2004 13:35:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407071836.i67Iak124017@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 071836 SWOMCD SPC MCD 071835 PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-071930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1561 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0135 PM CDT WED JUL 07 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL-ERN MD/DC/SERN PA/ERN VA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 586... VALID 071835Z - 071930Z PARAMETERS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH LINE SEGMENTS...AND ISOLATED HAIL. AT 1820Z...REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED A SMALL BOWING SEGMENT MOVING ENE AT 35 KT ACROSS FAR ERN VA...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES THROUGH WESTMORELAND AND NORTHUMBERLAND COUNTIES VA TO THE SRN CHESAPEAKE BAY BETWEEN 1830-19Z. ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS FROM SERN PA TO SERN VA...WHERE A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT BOTH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ..PETERS.. 07/07/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RAH... 40487743 40487554 36577639 36557823 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 7 19:07:15 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 07 Jul 2004 14:07:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407071907.i67J7s105452@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 071907 SWOMCD SPC MCD 071906 KSZ000-NEZ000-071930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1562 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0206 PM CDT WED JUL 07 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEB AND NRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 071906Z - 071930Z WW MAY BE REQUIRED BY 1930Z FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEB AND NRN KS. 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS COMBINED WITH VIS IMAGERY SHOWED SEVERAL SURFACE BOUNDARIES INTERSECTING ALONG THE NEB/KS BORDER NEAR 40 S HSI. A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM WRN NEB SEWD THROUGH THE POINT 40 S HSI TO SERN KS...WHILE TWO SURFACE TROUGHS EXTENDED SWD AND SWWD FROM THE BOUNDARY INTERSECTION ALONG THE NEB/KS BORDER. WARM SECTOR AIR MASS HAS BECOME MODERATELY TO EXTREMELY UNSTABLE...WITH SWLY LLJ CONTINUING TO FEED THIS AIR MASS INTO THE ELEVATED STORMS ALONG AND EAST OF THE WARM FRONT. STORMS HAVE BECOME RAPIDLY SEVERE DURING THE LAST HALF HOUR AT THIS INTERSECTION...WHICH MAY BE A SIGN THAT ACTIVITY IS BECOMING SURFACE BASED GIVEN EXTREME INSTABILITY TO THE SOUTHWEST. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR RESULTING IN SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY. ..PETERS.. 07/07/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD... 39169943 41390106 41409887 38569661 38219644 38149864 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 7 19:32:42 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 07 Jul 2004 14:32:42 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407071933.i67JXR118485@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 071932 SWOMCD SPC MCD 071931 TXZ000-072130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1563 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0231 PM CDT WED JUL 07 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ECNTRL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 071931Z - 072130Z DEVELOPING TSTMS MAY POSE ISOLD/MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. TSTMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS NCNTRL TX OWING TO REMNANT MCV/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION...WITH ACTIVITY LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND/OR SPREAD S/SE ACROSS ECNTRL TX. 18Z RUC POINT SOUNDINGS AND MODIFIED 12Z DFW/SHV RAOBS SUGGEST NEGLIGIBLE CINH OVER THE REGION...WITH MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 2500-3500 J/KG OWING TO UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S AND LOWER 70S TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS RESPECTIVELY. WEAK WINDS ARE EVIDENT ACROSS THE REGION PER PALESTINE TX PROFILER AND AREA VWPS WITH WLY WINDS 15-20 KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE LOW TO MID TROPOSPHERE. WEAK AMBIENT SHEAR/VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS SUGGESTS MICROBURSTS/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLD LARGE HAIL A POSSIBILITY AS WELL WITH THE MOST VIGOROUS TSTMS. ..GUYER.. 07/07/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT... 32549790 32919665 32959510 32689450 31689450 31099525 30489644 30259752 30179820 31079861 31469872 31989848 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 7 23:15:40 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 07 Jul 2004 18:15:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407072316.i67NGI113981@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 072315 SWOMCD SPC MCD 072315 KSZ000-NEZ000-OKZ000-080045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1564 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0615 PM CDT WED JUL 07 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...S CENTRAL NEB / CENTRAL KS... CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 587... VALID 072315Z - 080045Z SEVERE / SUPERCELL STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS N CENTRAL KS IN THE SRN HALF OF WW 587. CLUSTER OF SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES ACROSS N CENTRAL KS ATTM...ALONG STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE / OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LYING ACROSS THIS REGION. WITH STORMS ON THE NERN EDGE OF LARGE INSTABILITY AXIS AND LOW-LEVEL JET / THETA-E ADVECTION FORECAST TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...EXPECT STORMS / SEVERE THREAT TO CONTINUE. ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD WOULD SUGGEST A SELY STORM MOTION...INCREASING SLY / SSWLY LOW-LEVEL JET WOULD FAVOR A MORE SWD MOVEMENT -- PARTICULARLY IF AN ORGANIZED COLD POOL DEVELOPS. WITH LITTLE DEVELOPMENT ANTICIPATED ATTM ACROSS SRN NEB / NRN PORTIONS OF WW DUE TO CAPPING AND SHORT-WAVE RIDGING ALOFT...SEVERE THREAT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF WW OVER NRN / CENTRAL KS. WITH TIME...THREAT SHOULD SHIFT SWD TOWARD SRN KS / OK...WITH NEW WW POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS AREA IN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. ..GOSS.. 07/07/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD... 38129596 37159562 36939922 38379928 41750139 41739868 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 8 01:21:29 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 07 Jul 2004 20:21:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407080122.i681M7123494@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 080121 SWOMCD SPC MCD 080120 NDZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-080245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1565 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0820 PM CDT WED JUL 07 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MT / WRN ND / NWRN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 588... VALID 080120Z - 080245Z LOOSELY-ORGANIZED LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES MOVING EWD ACROSS ERN MT / WW 588. SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...AND MAY SPREAD E OF WW INTO WRN ND AND PARTS OF NWRN SD WITH TIME. NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED...WHILE SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS MAINLY ERN PORTIONS OF WW 588. LATEST DATA INDICATES A SLOWLY STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS ATTM...BUT AXIS OF INSTABILITY REMAINS FROM NERN MT SSEWD INTO WRN SD. STRONG CONVERGENCE IS INDICATED ALONG FRONT MOVING EWD ACROSS ERN MT...WHERE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE ONGOING ATTM. ALTHOUGH MAIN SEVERE THREAT HAS BEEN DAMAGING WINDS WITH HIGH-BASED STORMS...COOLING / STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET / WARM ADVECTION OVER THIS REGION SUGGESTS THAT STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME INCREASINGLY ELEVATED WITH TIME...WITH MAIN SEVERE THREAT TRANSITIONING TOWARD HAIL. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY AXIS REMAINS NARROW / CONFINED TO ERN MT / THE WRN DAKOTAS...A NARROW WW MAY BE REQUIRED E OF CURRENT WATCH ASSUMING STORMS REMAIN STRONG / ORGANIZED OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. ..GOSS.. 07/08/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW... 47970625 49010401 49020236 45840218 44300242 45030488 45200624 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 8 02:24:00 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 07 Jul 2004 21:24:00 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407080224.i682Oc112609@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 080223 SWOMCD SPC MCD 080223 KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-080400- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1566 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0923 PM CDT WED JUL 07 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL KS / N CENTRAL AND NWRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 589... VALID 080223Z - 080400Z CLUSTER OF SEVERE STORMS IS MOVING SWD ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF WW ATTM. SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES...AND MAY SPREAD INTO S CENTRAL KS AND ADJACENT NWRN / N CENTRAL OK OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. STORMS HAVE BEGUN A SWD PROPAGATION ACROSS CENTRAL KS...WITH STRONGEST STORMS MOVING ACROSS ELLIS AND RUSSELL COUNTIES INTO RUSH AND BARTON COUNTIES ATTM. REPORTS OF A TORNADO ON THE GROUND HAVE BEEN RECEIVED FROM RUSSELL COUNTY...AND LARGE HAIL ALSO APPEARS LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS. IN ADDITION...STORM CLUSTER APPEARS TO BE TAKING ON A BOW SHAPE ATTM...WHICH SUGGESTS AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AS THIS CLUSTER MOVES SWD. OVER THE NEXT HOUR STORMS WILL APPROACH THE SRN FRINGE OF WW. ALTHOUGH OBJECTIVE ANALYSES AND LAMONT OK RAOB INDICATE A SOMEWHAT LESS UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS SRN KS / NRN OK...INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW STORMS TO CONTINUE -- PARTICULARLY GIVEN INCREASING SSWLY LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS THIS REGION. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS...AND ASSUMING STORMS REMAIN ORGANIZED...NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED S OF WW 589. ..GOSS.. 07/08/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...AMA... 39320007 39589844 38739771 37229773 36329786 36029910 36500018 38300023 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 8 06:35:35 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 08 Jul 2004 01:35:35 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407080636.i686aE123374@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 080635 SWOMCD SPC MCD 080634 SDZ000-NDZ000-080800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1567 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0134 AM CDT THU JUL 08 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MT...WRN ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 590... VALID 080634Z - 080800Z STRONGLY DYNAMIC UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS OVERNIGHT WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT DEVELOPING EAST ACROSS ERN MT. A NARROW AXIS OF MODEST INSTABILITY...MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 800 J/KG...HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN THE ZONE OF STRONGLY FORCED ASCENT FROM ERN MT ACROSS SWRN ND. EXPECT THIS INSTABILITY TO CONTINUE TO FUEL ISOLD TO WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS. A SMALL MCS MAY EVOLVE FROM THIS CONVECTION AND DEVELOP ESEWD ACROSS WRN/CNTRL PORTIONS OF ND AND SD. A NEW WATCH MAY BE CONSIDERED IF THIS APPEARS MORE CERTAIN. THERE ARE LIKELY TO BE TWO MECHANISMS THAT DRIVE ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. 1) THE COLD FRONT MOVING EAST ACROSS MT...AND 2) THE LEADING EDGE OF A NARROW WARM SECTOR ACROSS NRN SD/SRN ND. AS STORMS MOVE EAST...UPDRAFTS SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY DECOUPLED FROM THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS. NONETHELESS...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION WILL FAVOR ELEVATED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY TEND TO ANCHOR OR BACKBUILD ALONG THE DEVELOPING WARM FRONT/LLJ FROM WRN SD INTO SRN ND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IF THIS SCENARIO UNFOLDS AND SEVERE STORM COVERAGE INCREASES...A NEW WATCH MAY BE NEEDED. ..CARBIN.. 07/08/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR... 45870243 46580401 47480340 47570121 46920030 45380057 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 8 12:28:20 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 08 Jul 2004 07:28:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407081228.i68CSu100595@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 081228 SWOMCD SPC MCD 081228 MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-081500- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1568 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0728 AM CDT THU JUL 08 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS...NERN OK...WRN MO...NWRN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 081228Z - 081500Z A SEVERE TSTM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS PARTS OF ERN KS/WRN MO...NERN OK...AND NWRN AR LATER THIS MORNING. STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY ACROSS ERN KS/WRN MO LATER THIS MORNING WHILE DRIFTING SLOWLY SOUTH. TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED ACROSS ERN KS ALONG SURFACE WARM FRONT AND PRONOUNCED LOW LEVEL THETAE AXIS. INITIATION OF THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN A RESULT OF STRONG MOISTURE FLUX ON THE NOSE OF 30-35KT LOW LEVEL JET DIRECTED INTO THE FRONTAL ZONE. IN ADDITION... FAVORABLE BACKGROUND ASCENT AND MID LEVEL DESTABILIZATION IS LIKELY FROM SMALL MCV LEFT OVER FROM LAST EVENING/S DEEP CONVECTION. WHILE CURRENT ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE ROOTED AOA 850MB AND WAS PROBABLY ONLY REALIZING LIMITED DEEP LAYER SHEAR... THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR NEAR SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION GIVEN A FEW MORE HOURS OF HEATING. GIVEN VERY MOIST AIRMASS AND LOW THROUGH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 7.5 C/KM...STRONG TO LOCALLY EXTREME INSTABILITY WILL BE AVAILABLE. AS UPDRAFTS ROOT INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER...DIRECTIONAL SHEAR NEAR THE FRONTAL ZONE COULD SUPPORT A FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND STRONG... POSSIBLY DAMAGING...DOWNDRAFTS. ..CARBIN.. 07/08/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT... 36189435 37469697 39409691 39689601 38249313 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 8 15:09:50 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 08 Jul 2004 10:09:50 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407081510.i68FAQ107449@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 081509 SWOMCD SPC MCD 081509 MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-081715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1569 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1009 AM CDT THU JUL 08 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SE KS...NE OK...AND EXTREME SW MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 081509Z - 081715Z POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED HAIL AND MICROBURSTS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SLOWLY SWD-SSEWD THROUGH SERN KS...NE OK AND POSSIBLY INTO EXTREME SW MO NEXT 2-3 HOURS. AT THIS TIME...THREAT APPEARS TOO MARGINAL FOR A WW. HOWEVER...IF STORMS MANAGE TO BECOME SURFACE BASED...THE SEVERE THREAT WOULD INCREASE. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. CLUSTER OF STORMS THAT DEVELOPED IN ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION ON NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUES ACROSS SERN KS. THE ACTIVITY STILL APPEARS TO BE ELEVATED...BUT AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES AND CAP WEAKENS ACROSS SERN KS...SW MO AND NE OK...STORMS MAY BECOME SURFACE BASED. THE LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD WEAKEN WITH TIME THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...THE DEGREE OF PERSISTENCE IS DEPENDENT IN PART ON WHETHER OR NOT THE STORMS CAN ORGANIZE A COLD POOL WHICH WOULD ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR DOWNWIND PROPAGATION. WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY SERVE AS LIMITING FACTORS FOR AN ORGANIZED WIND/HAIL THREAT. HOWEVER...THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS INCLUDING STRONG INSTABILITY AND STEEP LAPSE RATES APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND MICROBURSTS IF STORMS MANAGE TO BECOME SURFACE BASED. ..DIAL.. 07/08/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT... 37149394 36099537 37169696 38129540 38029405 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 8 18:34:03 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 08 Jul 2004 13:34:03 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407081834.i68IYc130209@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 081834 SWOMCD SPC MCD 081833 NHZ000-MAZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-082030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1570 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0133 PM CDT THU JUL 08 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NY/NE PA/NRN NJ INTO VT/MA/CT AND WRN NH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 081833Z - 082030Z TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...BUT A SEVERE WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. AIRMASS AHEAD OF SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT/SE ONTARIO SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. 18Z OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS 100MB MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS FAR ERN NY...OWING TO MODEST INSOLATION WITH LOW/MID 80S TEMPS AND MID/UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS. ALTHOUGH INITIALLY LIMITED BY CLOUD COVER INVOF WARM FRONT...THIS DESTABILIZATION TREND WILL GRADUALLY CONTINUE EWD THROUGH VT/MA/CT THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON. GIVEN MODERATE INSTABILITY...LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES -- AS EVIDENT IN 12Z BUF/ALB RAOBS -- WITH W/SW MID LEVEL WINDS OF 30-40 KTS WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED MULTICELL/LINEAR CLUSTERS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLD DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN SEVERE HAZARD. IN ADDITION...SEVERE HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST VIGOROUS TSTMS. ANTICIPATED MARGINAL NATURE OF OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE WW ISSUANCE...HOWEVER TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. ..GUYER.. 07/08/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM... 44827448 44917198 44367200 42967211 41697262 41097369 40687426 40757516 41127569 42077550 43227515 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 8 19:29:24 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 08 Jul 2004 14:29:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407081929.i68JTx126586@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 081929 SWOMCD SPC MCD 081929 DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-082100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1571 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0229 PM CDT THU JUL 08 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN VA/FAR NERN NC INTO DE/MD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 081929Z - 082100Z POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. PLENTIFUL INSOLATION/HUMID AIRMASS IS CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE AS HIGH AS 1000-1500 J/KG ACROSS SE VA PER LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. ALTHOUGH MODERATE INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE...UNIDIRECTIONAL AMBIENT WIND FIELDS ARE MARGINAL AS REGION REMAINS ON SRN PERIPHERY OF STRONGER WLY MID LEVEL FLOW. NEVERTHELESS...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY/WIND PROFILES EXIST FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO LIMITING SEVERE HAIL POTENTIAL...RISING UPPER HEIGHTS/ENSUING NVA IN WAKE OF ERN CANADA SHORTWAVE TROUGH SUGGESTS ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE CONFINED TO THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ..GUYER.. 07/08/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RAH... 36757790 37007785 37587737 38707637 38917550 38657505 37307554 36317593 36067642 36077706 36277796 36437806 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 8 20:18:57 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 08 Jul 2004 15:18:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407082019.i68KJV116009@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 082018 SWOMCD SPC MCD 082018 NEZ000-SDZ000-WYZ000-082215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1572 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0318 PM CDT THU JUL 08 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN WY THROUGH THE NEB PANHANDLE AND SW SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 082018Z - 082215Z STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY INTO THE EVENING AS THEY MOVE EWD FROM SE WY INTO WRN NEB AND SWRN SD. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. LATEST RADAR DATA SHOW ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING OVER SERN WY WHERE STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND DEEP MIXING HAS WEAKENED THE CAP. THE DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WITH LARGE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS IS LIMITING MLCAPE TO AOB 1000 J/KG OVER SERN WY AND WILL PROMOTE HIGH BASED CONVECTION. STORMS MAY INTENSIFY AS THEY DEVELOP EAST INTO WRN NEB AND INTERCEPT SLIGHTLY RICHER MOISTURE AND STRONGER INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. A 60 KT MID LEVEL JET ROTATING THROUGH BASE OF UPPER TROUGH WY AND EVENTUALLY INTO SD THIS EVENING WILL SUPPORT DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...BUT HIGH BASED NATURE OF THE STORMS SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE THREAT TO PRIMARILY ISOLATED HAIL AND WIND. ..DIAL.. 07/08/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS... 41080287 41340505 43280406 43270259 41760219 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 8 20:49:42 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 08 Jul 2004 15:49:42 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407082050.i68KoH129784@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 082049 SWOMCD SPC MCD 082049 MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-082215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1573 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0349 PM CDT THU JUL 08 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NE OK...SW MO AND NW AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 591... VALID 082049Z - 082215Z THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL EXPECTED TO PERSIST NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH LINE OF STORMS ACROSS NERN OK...SW MO AND NW AR. BASED ON CURRENT MOVEMENT OF ERN PARTS OF THE LINE...STORMS MAY BEGIN TO MOVE SE OF WW 591 AND FARTHER INTO NW AR AFTER 22Z. IF STORMS MAINTAIN THEIR INTENSITY AS THEY DEVELOP SEWD...ANOTHER WW MIGHT BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF NW AR. STORMS HAVE INTENSIFIED AND EVOLVED INTO A LINE ALONG LEADING CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LEFT OVER FROM THIS MORNINGS STORMS. AS OF 2030Z THIS AFTERNOON THE LINE EXTENDS FROM NEAR SPRINGFIELD MO SWWD TO N OF TULSA. THE ERN PARTS OF THE LINE ARE MOVING SEWD AT 25 TO 30 KT...WHILE THE WRN PORTION IS DEVELOPING SWD AT 15 TO 20 KT. THE STORMS HAVE BECOME SURFACE BASED AND FORWARD PROPAGATING. STORMS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW AND VERTICAL SHEAR...AND THE UNFAVORABLE KINEMATICS MIGHT LIMIT HOW FAR SOUTH STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO DEVELOP. NEVERTHELESS...THE DOWNSTREAM ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED ACROSS NERN OK AND NRN AR...WHICH SUGGESTS STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ALONG LEADING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. ..DIAL.. 07/08/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA... 36469552 36629440 37419333 36169308 35509478 35509566 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 8 22:43:52 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 08 Jul 2004 17:43:52 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407082244.i68MiX111410@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 082243 SWOMCD SPC MCD 082243 MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-082345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1574 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0543 PM CDT THU JUL 08 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NERN AND EXTREME E-CENTRAL OK...NWRN AND N-CENTRAL AR...SWRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 591... VALID 082243Z - 082345Z PER COORDINATION WITH TUL...ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS MENTIONED BELOW...AND LATEST OVERALL DOWNWARD CONVECTIVE TRENDS WITH MCS...SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH AS ACTIVITY MOVES FARTHER SEWD INTO AR AND EXTREME ERN OK. THEREFORE...PRIND REMAINDER WW WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. REFLECTIVITY IMAGERY INDICATES FINE LINE ASSOCIATED WITH GUST FRONT SURGING WELL AHEAD OF STRONGEST CORES...THEREBY RENDERING EFFECTIVE INFLOW INTO REMAINING TSTMS AS ELEVATED ATOP COLD POOL. NEW CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS POSSIBLE ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...WHICH MAY BRIEFLY FLARE TO NEAR SEVERE LEVELS...GIVEN 4000-5000 J/KG MLCAPE EVIDENT IN MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER...WITH COLD POOL OUTRUNNING CONVECTION THAT GENERATED IT...ANY NEW TSTMS LIKELY TO BE UNDERCUT BY DEEP OUTFLOW...AND WEAK AMBIENT FLOW PROFILES IN LOW-MIDLEVELS...PROBABILITIES FOR WELL-ORGANIZED SEVERE EVENT TO CONTINUE APPEAR TOO LIMITED TO WARRANT ADDITIONAL WW. ..EDWARDS.. 07/08/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA... 35389563 36439563 36469438 36779332 36569330 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 8 23:35:41 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 08 Jul 2004 18:35:41 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407082336.i68NaG129149@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 082335 SWOMCD SPC MCD 082335 NEZ000-SDZ000-090130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1575 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0635 PM CDT THU JUL 08 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SWRN SD...NWRN NEB...NEB PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 592... VALID 082335Z - 090130Z CONTINUE WW ALONG AND E OF DEVELOPING LINE OF SEVERE TSTMS -- EXTENDING AT 2315Z FROM WRN-MOST CHERRY COUNTY SWWD TO BANNER COUNTY AND MOVING SEWD 30-40 KT. SEVERE THREAT IN SD APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING CONSIDERABLY WITH STRONGEST CONVECTIVE FORCING S OF NEB BORDER. SUPERCELL ENTERING WRN CHERRY COUNTY NEB APPEARS AS OF 2315Z TO BE TRANSITIONING TOWARD FORWARD-PROPAGATING HP OR BOW CONFIGURATION. AS SUCH THIS STORM MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL IN A SWATH EXTENDING SEWD THROUGH WRN/SRN CHERRY COUNTY...POSSIBLY AS FAR AS PORTIONS HOOKER/THOMAS COUNTIES AND BEYOND. THIS STORM HAS PRODUCED BRIEF TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES DIAMETER...MEASURED 46 KT GUST INVOF CDR...AND ESTIMATED GUSTS JUST ABOVE 50 KT IN SHERIDAN COUNTY...SINCE 21Z. PRIND THIS ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO EXIT PRESENT WW AREA BY APPROXIMATELY 1Z...WHILE CONTINUING TO MOVE THROUGH FAVORABLY MOIST/UNSTABLE INFLOW AIR MASS. THEREFORE ANOTHER WW MAY BE NEEDED WITHIN NEXT HOUR OR TWO FOR PORTIONS NEB E AND/OR SE OF WW 592. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE FROM BETWEEN VTN-ANW SWWD ACROSS HOOKER COUNTY THEN SEWD TO NEAR LBF-MHK LINE. AIR MASS E OF THIS BOUNDARY IS NOT AS WARM BUT CONSIDERABLY MORE MOIST THAN PRESENT INFLOW ENVIRONMENT OF MCS...WITH MLCAPES INCREASING TO WITHIN 2000-3000 J/KG RANGE. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE 50-150 J/KG CINH...BUT THIS SHOULD BE FORCED AWAY BY STRONG FORWARD-PROPAGATIONAL CONVECTIVE ASCENT. COMBINING STORM MOTION WITH LOWEST VWP GATES FROM LBF YIELDS AROUND 50 KT STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW. ..EDWARDS.. 07/08/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS... 41080067 41070394 41970398 41980336 42990254 43910167 43880078 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 9 02:06:38 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 08 Jul 2004 21:06:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407090207.i6927L109926@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 090206 SWOMCD SPC MCD 090205 OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-090400- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1576 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0905 PM CDT THU JUL 08 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN KS / TX AND OK PANHANDLES CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 090205Z - 090400Z THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE PAST 1 TO 2 HOURS ACROSS SWRN KS...AND INTO THE OK / NRN TX PANHANDLES. ALTHOUGH A THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL APPEARS TO EXIST...WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. LOW-LEVEL JET HAS BEGUN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING...WHICH MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH OBSERVED INCREASE IN CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 1 TO 2 HOURS. ALTHOUGH THIS REGION IS ON THE WRN PERIPHERY OF AXIS OF EXTREME INSTABILITY /4000 TO 5000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE/...EVENING RAOBS AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSES ALSO REVEAL A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT CAP ACROSS THIS REGION. LOW-LEVEL JET / WEAK WARM ADVECTION MAY SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OF SCATTERED TO ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS THIS REGION...WHICH SHOULD PROPAGATE SWD WITH TIME GIVEN STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET AND WEAK STEERING WINDS ALOFT. ALTHOUGH DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND RELATIVELY DRY LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS SUGGESTS A POTENTIAL FOR HAIL / WIND WITH A FEW STRONGER MULTICELL STORMS...OVERALL THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED GIVEN WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND INCREASING CAP. ..GOSS.. 07/09/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...AMA... 37580002 37159919 36599883 35879889 35379956 34930100 35870208 36550210 37080153 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 9 03:59:16 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 08 Jul 2004 22:59:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407090359.i693xu113493@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 090359 SWOMCD SPC MCD 090358 NEZ000-KSZ000-090530- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1577 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1058 PM CDT THU JUL 08 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND S CENTRAL NEB / NRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 593...594... VALID 090358Z - 090530Z THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ORGANIZED INTO A BOW / MCS...AND SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING SEWD INTO S CENTRAL NEB / TOWARD N CENTRAL KS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...ALONG WITH CONTINUED THREAT FOR PRIMARILY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. OBJECTIVE ANALYSES CONTINUE TO INDICATE AXIS OF EXTREME INSTABILITY -- AS HIGH AS 5000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE -- FROM S SCENTRAL NEB SWD ACROSS CENTRAL KS. WITHIN THIS SAME REGION...30 KT SLY LOW-LEVEL JET IS INDICATED...AND NEW ETA RUN INDICATES AN ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION BULLSEYE OVER THIS REGION. GIVEN THESE FACTORS AND THE ORGANIZED LINE AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL WHICH HAVE DEVELOPED...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT STORMS WILL CONTINUE MOVING SEWD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS S CENTRAL NEB AND INTO N CENTRAL KS -- ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR STRONG / DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. STORMS HAVE NEARLY VACATED SERN PORTIONS WW 593 ATTM...AND SHOULD MOVE ENTIRELY INTO WW 594 WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. THIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT WW 593 MAY BE ABLE TO BE CANCELLED PRIOR TO ITS 09/07Z EXPIRATION. ..GOSS.. 07/09/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD... 41459947 41579862 41379696 39479851 39410082 40290150 40680024 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 9 05:20:34 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 09 Jul 2004 00:20:34 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407090521.i695L8104701@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 090520 SWOMCD SPC MCD 090519 KSZ000-NEZ000-090615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1578 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1219 AM CDT FRI JUL 09 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NCNTRL KS AND SERN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 090519Z - 090615Z A SEVERE TSTM WATCH WILL BE NEEDED ACROSS PARTS OF NCNTRL KS AND SERN NEB IF TSTMS DO NOT SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKENING. WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE IS STILL BEING REPORTED WITH THE LINE OF TSTMS ACROSS SCNTRL NEB. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DEPICTS INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDING SEWD INTO NCNTRL KS. GIVEN SLY H85 JET OF 30-40 KTS AND MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY...THESE TSTMS WILL PROBABLY PRODUCE WIND DAMAGE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. LINE IS MOVING SEWD AT AROUND 45 KTS...AND DESPITE WEAK H5 FLOW...TSTMS APPEAR TO HAVE GENERATED ENOUGH OF A COLD POOL TO SUSTAIN A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. IF TSTMS DO NOT WEAKEN SOON...ANOTHER WW WILL BE NEEDED DOWNSTREAM. ..RACY.. 07/09/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC... 38219814 38899943 40129826 40849706 40189615 38349697 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 9 06:03:35 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 09 Jul 2004 01:03:35 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407090604.i6964D116165@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 090603 SWOMCD SPC MCD 090603 NEZ000-090700- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1579 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0103 AM CDT FRI JUL 09 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SWRN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 593... VALID 090603Z - 090700Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 593 IS SET TO EXPIRE AT 0700 UTC AND WILL NOT BE REISSUED. LINE OF ELEVATED TSTMS HAS DEVELOPED IN WAKE OF LINEAR MCS ACROSS EXTREME SWRN NEB. THESE TSTMS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND ISOLD LARGE HAIL. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS STILL INDICATES A NARROW WEDGE OF 3000-3500 J/KG MUCAPE IN WAKE OF THE MCS. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED AND OVER A SMALL AREA AND A NEW WW WILL NOT BE NEEDED. ..RACY.. 07/09/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD... 40750185 40759992 40040043 40090179 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 9 07:47:27 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 09 Jul 2004 02:47:27 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407090748.i697m5112160@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 090747 SWOMCD SPC MCD 090746 NEZ000-KSZ000-090915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1580 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0246 AM CDT FRI JUL 09 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NEB AND CNTRL/NERN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 594...595... VALID 090746Z - 090915Z WELL ORGANIZED LINEAR MCS CONTINUES TO FORWARD PROPAGATE SEWD ACROSS SERN NEB AND NCNTRL KS AT 40-45 KTS. NRN EDGE OF THE SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AS IT APPROACHES THE MO RVR NEAR OMAHA...THOUGH WARM ADVECTION WING IS DEVELOPING EWD INTO SWRN IA. PRIND NRN EDGE OF THE LINE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WEAKENING AS THE ACTIVITY ENCOUNTERS SLIGHTLY LESS INSTABILITY THAN WHAT WAS AVAILABLE FARTHER WEST. MEANWHILE...STRONGEST DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES ALONG SRN EDGE OF GUST FRONT IN NCNTRL KS. LAMONT AND HILLSBORO PROFILERS SHOW A STRONG LLJ OF 40-45 KTS AND THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUING FEEDING THE TSTMS WITH PARCELS CONTAINING MUCAPES OF 4000 J/KG. DESPITE WEAK H5 FLOW...THIS MCS HAS HAD A VERY WELL DEVELOPED COLD POOL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN A THREAT FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AS IT MOVES SEWD INTO NERN/CNTRL KS. IF THE TSTMS HOLD TOGETHER...EXTRAPOLATION HAS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE STORMS ROUGHLY TOPEKA-MANHATTAN AREAS 8-900 UTC...AND PERHAPS TOPEKA AND EMPORIA /I-35 TURNPIKE CORRIDOR/ BY 900-930 UTC. IN WAKE OF THIS MCS...MORE ELEVATED TSTMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING PERIODICALLY AND THOSE MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND ISOLD HAIL. LASTLY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 594 MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY AS TSTMS HAVE ESSENTIALLY MOVED WELL INTO WATCH 595. ..RACY.. 07/09/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD... 40030031 40009858 40659755 41509754 41459640 40879596 40229561 39039589 38119650 38059855 38169940 39229991 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 9 07:50:19 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 09 Jul 2004 02:50:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407090751.i697p4112987@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 090750 SWOMCD SPC MCD 090749 COR NEZ000-KSZ000-090915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1580 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0249 AM CDT FRI JUL 09 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NEB AND CNTRL/NERN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 594...595... VALID 090749Z - 090915Z CORRECTED FOR REFERENCED CITIES IN THIRD PARAGRAPH WELL ORGANIZED LINEAR MCS CONTINUES TO FORWARD PROPAGATE SEWD ACROSS SERN NEB AND NCNTRL KS AT 40-45 KTS. NRN EDGE OF THE SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AS IT APPROACHES THE MO RVR NEAR OMAHA...THOUGH WARM ADVECTION WING IS DEVELOPING EWD INTO SWRN IA. PRIND NRN EDGE OF THE LINE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WEAKENING AS THE ACTIVITY ENCOUNTERS SLIGHTLY LESS INSTABILITY THAN WHAT WAS AVAILABLE FARTHER WEST. MEANWHILE...STRONGEST DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES ALONG SRN EDGE OF GUST FRONT IN NCNTRL KS. LAMONT AND HILLSBORO PROFILERS SHOW A STRONG LLJ OF 40-45 KTS AND THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUING FEEDING THE TSTMS WITH PARCELS CONTAINING MUCAPES OF 4000 J/KG. DESPITE WEAK H5 FLOW...THIS MCS HAS HAD A VERY WELL DEVELOPED COLD POOL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN A THREAT FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AS IT MOVES SEWD INTO NERN/CNTRL KS. IF THE TSTMS HOLD TOGETHER...EXTRAPOLATION HAS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE STORMS ROUGHLY THE MANHATTAN AREA 8-900 UTC...AND PERHAPS TOPEKA AND EMPORIA /I-35 TURNPIKE CORRIDOR/ BY 900-930 UTC. IN WAKE OF THIS MCS...MORE ELEVATED TSTMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING PERIODICALLY AND THOSE MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND ISOLD HAIL. LASTLY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 594 MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY AS TSTMS HAVE ESSENTIALLY MOVED WELL INTO WATCH 595. ..RACY.. 07/09/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD... 40030031 40009858 40659755 41509754 41459640 40879596 40229561 39039589 38119650 38059855 38169940 39229991 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 9 15:11:29 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 09 Jul 2004 10:11:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407091512.i69FC5105906@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 091511 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091510 OKZ000-091715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1581 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1010 AM CDT FRI JUL 09 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN THROUGH CNTRL OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 091510Z - 091715Z THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS THEY DEVELOP SWD THROUGH NRN AND INTO CNTRL OK THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW AND WILL LIKELY BE UPGRADED TO A SLIGHT RISK IN THE 1630Z OUTLOOK. LATE THIS MORNING A CLUSTER OF STORMS NEAR PONCA CITY CONTINUES MOVING SWD AT AROUND 20 KT. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE WEAK AND SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELL STORMS. HOWEVER...LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGEST SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE HEATING WILL OCCUR DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS CNTRL OK. MORNING RAOB DATA FROM NORMAN SHOWED STEEP LAPSE RATES AND RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...SUGGESTING THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE WITH LITTLE CAP ONCE SURFACE TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S. MLCAPE FROM 3500 TO 4000 J/KG IS EXPECTED BY EARLY AFTERNOON. VWP DATA STILL SHOW A 30 KT SLY LOW LEVEL JET...BUT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...20 KT SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH 15 TO 20 KT NLY MID LEVEL FLOW TO THE W OF AN MCV CENTERED OVER EXTREME SW MO SHOULD PROVIDE FAVORABLE KINEMATIC PROFILES FOR STORMS TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING SWD AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. ..DIAL.. 07/09/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN... 36669495 36439687 36569812 35989853 35459814 35249665 35869490 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 9 19:03:30 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 09 Jul 2004 14:03:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407091904.i69J41107597@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 091903 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091902 NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-092100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1582 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0202 PM CDT FRI JUL 09 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NE CO...SE WY AND WRN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 091902Z - 092100Z STORMS DEVELOPING OVER NRN CO INTO SE WY ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS THEY MOVE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...BUT AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN CO INTO SE WY. DESTABILIZATION IS OCCURRING DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS ACTIVITY OVER SE WY...WRN NEB AND NE CO. STRONG SURFACE HEATING...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. AN UPPER RIDGE HAS BEEN BUILDING OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS TODAY WITH RESULTING WEAK MID-UPPER FLOW AND VERTICAL SHEAR. DESPITE THE WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR...MID LEVEL FLOW OF 20-25 KT REMAINS SUFFICIENT FOR STORMS TO SPREAD SLOWLY EWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SERN WY INTO WRN NEB. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS THEY DEVELOP EWD INTO THE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS. INVERTED-V BOUNDARY LAYERS AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT THREAT FOR ISOLATED MICROBURSTS. SOME HAIL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. ..DIAL.. 07/09/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS... 39710412 40040510 42240531 42560306 40310326 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 9 19:15:50 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 09 Jul 2004 14:15:50 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407091916.i69JGM113149@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 091915 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091915 INZ000-ILZ000-092115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1583 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0215 PM CDT FRI JUL 09 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NERN IL AND NRN IND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 091915Z - 092115Z ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH CONVECTION INTENSIFYING ALONG GUST FRONT OVER NERN IL AS IT MOVES INTO NWRN IND. OVERALL THREAT APPEARS TO BE MARGINAL AND THUS A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. LATEST VWP DATA FROM CHICAGO AND IR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A MID LEVEL SPEED MAX EXISTS OVER NRN IL TO THE SOUTH OF AN MCV OVER SRN WI. RECENT GOES PW DATA INDICATES LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS INCREASING NORTH ABOVE SLOWLY ADVANCING WARM FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS NRN IND AND FAR NERN IL. SOMEWHAT ELEVATED NATURE OF CONVECTION NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY OVER THE CHI METRO AREA SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE WIND THREAT. HOWEVER...NEW DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE ALONG THE GUST FRONT/WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTERSECTION TO THE SOUTH OF CHICAGO INTO FAR NWRN IND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS CONVECTION WILL BE ABLE TO TAP MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH MLCAPES FROM 2000-2500 J/KG. DESPITE MARGINAL LOW LEVEL INFLOW IN THIS AREA...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY... FOCUSED CONVERGENCE ALONG GUST FRONT AND MODEST MID LEVEL FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND/HAIL THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS THROUGH NRN IND. ..CROSBIE.. 07/09/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT... 40618770 41268861 41648827 41818745 41678614 41088512 40348542 40148602 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 9 21:27:21 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 09 Jul 2004 16:27:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407092127.i69LRq132272@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 092127 SWOMCD SPC MCD 092126 ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-092300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1584 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0426 PM CDT FRI JUL 09 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN IA...WCENTRAL AND NWRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 092126Z - 092300Z ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER FAR SERN IA ARE LIKELY TO INTENSIFY AS THEY MOVE ESEWD INTO NWRN/WCENTRAL IL. THIS AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING TRENDS AND POSSIBLE WW. LIFT FROM MID LEVEL VORT MAX OVER CENTRAL IA HAS AIDED IN ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER SERN IA IN THE LAST HOUR. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT INHIBITION WAS WEAK OVER NWRN/WCENTRAL IL ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM MERCER CO SEWD INTO MCCLEAN COUNTY. AS THE ELEVATED CONVECTION BECOMES ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH MLCAPES FROM 1500-2500 J/KG IT IS ANTICIPATED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY. MODERATE 30 KT MID LEVEL ABOVE BACKED LOW LEVEL SELY WINDS WILL AID IN SUFFICIENT ROTATION FOR THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL. RELATIVELY HIGH WBZ HEIGHTS FROM 12-13 KFT WILL LIMIT THE THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL. ADDITIONALLY..A WEAK TORNADO MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL / 0-1 KM SHEAR FROM 10-15 KTS / WITH ANY STORMS THAT MOVE ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY ..CROSBIE.. 07/09/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN... 40229124 40259167 41559123 41068878 40368896 39828910 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 9 23:50:39 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 09 Jul 2004 18:50:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407092351.i69NpA112084@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 092350 SWOMCD SPC MCD 092349 NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-100145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1585 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0649 PM CDT FRI JUL 09 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN CO / SERN MT / WRN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 092349Z - 100145Z SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF E CENTRAL AND NERN CO...WHILE ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE MOVING EWD OUT OF SERN WY INTO THE NEB PANHANDLE. DAMAGING WIND / HAIL THREAT MAY INCREASE SOMEWHAT OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS...POSSIBLY REQUIRING WW ISSUANCE. LATEST DATA INDICATES AN INSTABILITY GRADIENT ACROSS THIS REGION...ALONG WRN FRINGES OF AXIS OF 2000 TO 2500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE. LARGE-SCALE SHORT-WAVE RIDGING ALOFT EXISTS ACROSS THIS REGION WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION TO SOME DEGREE. HOWEVER...LATEST PLT /PLATTEVILLE CO/ PROFILER INDICATES THAT MID-LEVEL FLOW HAS INCREASED TO 35 TO 40 KT -- DESPITE MODEL FORECASTS FOR WEAK /20 KT/ MID-LEVEL FLOW THOUGH 10/06Z. WITH STORM MOVING OUT OF TELLER AND INTO EL PASO COUNTY CO SHOWING SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS -- AND THUS CONFIRMING AN INCREASE IN DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AS PER THE PLT PROFILER - IT APPEARS THAT AN INCREASE IN STORM ORGANIZATION / INTENSITY WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS -- PARTICULARLY AS LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES AND STORMS MOVE EWD INTO INCREASINGLY MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS. ALTHOUGH STORMS SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT ISOLATED -- AGAIN DUE TO LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE...WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS REGION FOR POSSIBLE WW TO COVER THE ISOLATED HAIL / WIND THREAT WHICH APPEARS TO BE EVOLVING. ..GOSS.. 07/09/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS... 42980135 42180120 40050249 38580450 39040520 40860526 42030567 43150314 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 10 00:00:26 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 09 Jul 2004 19:00:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407100000.i6A00v114382@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 100000 SWOMCD SPC MCD 092359 COR NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-100145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1585 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0659 PM CDT FRI JUL 09 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN CO / SERN WY / WRN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 092359Z - 100145Z CORRECTED TO CHANGE HEADER TO READ SERN WY INSTEAD OF SERN MT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF E CENTRAL AND NERN CO...WHILE ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE MOVING EWD OUT OF SERN WY INTO THE NEB PANHANDLE. DAMAGING WIND / HAIL THREAT MAY INCREASE SOMEWHAT OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS...POSSIBLY REQUIRING WW ISSUANCE. LATEST DATA INDICATES AN INSTABILITY GRADIENT ACROSS THIS REGION...ALONG WRN FRINGES OF AXIS OF 2000 TO 2500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE. LARGE-SCALE SHORT-WAVE RIDGING ALOFT EXISTS ACROSS THIS REGION WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION TO SOME DEGREE. HOWEVER...LATEST PLT /PLATTEVILLE CO/ PROFILER INDICATES THAT MID-LEVEL FLOW HAS INCREASED TO 35 TO 40 KT -- DESPITE MODEL FORECASTS FOR WEAK /20 KT/ MID-LEVEL FLOW THOUGH 10/06Z. WITH STORM MOVING OUT OF TELLER AND INTO EL PASO COUNTY CO SHOWING SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS -- AND THUS CONFIRMING AN INCREASE IN DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AS PER THE PLT PROFILER - IT APPEARS THAT AN INCREASE IN STORM ORGANIZATION / INTENSITY WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS -- PARTICULARLY AS LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES AND STORMS MOVE EWD INTO INCREASINGLY MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS. ALTHOUGH STORMS SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT ISOLATED -- AGAIN DUE TO LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE...WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS REGION FOR POSSIBLE WW TO COVER THE ISOLATED HAIL / WIND THREAT WHICH APPEARS TO BE EVOLVING. ..GOSS.. 07/09/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS... 42980135 42180120 40050249 38580450 39040520 40860526 42030567 43150314 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 10 00:17:18 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 09 Jul 2004 19:17:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407100017.i6A0Hm119251@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 100017 SWOMCD SPC MCD 100016 INZ000-ILZ000-100245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1586 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0716 PM CDT FRI JUL 09 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NRN/CENTRAL IL ESEWD INTO CENTRAL IND CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 100016Z - 100245Z HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD CONTINUE TO FOCUS ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE PEORIA ESEWD TO NEAR TERRA HAUTE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ADDITIONALLY AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER WCENTRAL/CENTRAL IL THROUGH 03Z. MID LEVEL VORT CENTER OVER ERN IA WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EWD AND AID IN AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT OVER WCENTRAL/CENTRAL IL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS GIVEN SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY SOUTH OF SLOWLY MOVING OUTFLOW/FRONTAL BOUNDARY. OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER CONVECTION OVER NERN IL HAS COLLIDED RECENTLY FROM OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL IND AIDING IN STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO THE NW OF THE INDIANAPOLIS AREA. SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND WEAK WAA ABOVE REMNANT COLD POOL SHOULD AID IN A FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS FROM NEAR LAF ESEWD TO NEAR MIE. ADDITIONAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COLLISIONS SHOULD OCCUR OVER FAR WCENTRAL IND/ECENTRAL IL IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS AND MAY AID IN BRIEF ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL THREATS. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL SLOW STORM MOTIONS PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY OVER ECENTRAL IL/WCENTRAL IND SHOULD AID IN CELL TRAINING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES AS THE PRIMARY THREAT. ..CROSBIE.. 07/10/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN... 39809029 39979059 40669070 40919068 41258965 41148887 40578706 40348590 39318629 39258788 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 10 00:29:26 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 09 Jul 2004 19:29:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407100029.i6A0Tw122642@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 100029 SWOMCD SPC MCD 100029 SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-100230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1587 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0729 PM CDT FRI JUL 09 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN ND / NWRN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 100029Z - 100230Z STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS W CENTRAL ND...AND MAY DEVELOP ACROSS / SPREAD NEWD INTO NWRN SD IN THE NEXT 1 TO 3 HOURS. DEGREE OF SHEAR / INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT...AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS REGION FOR POSSIBLE WW. SLY LOW-LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...WITH STRONGEST WARM ADVECTION FORECAST ACROSS NWRN SD AND WRN ND NORTH OF WARM FRONT NOW ACROSS W CENTRAL SD. PERSISTENT BAND OF CUMULUS MOVING ACROSS FAR ERN MT / WRN ND HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST 1 TO 2 HOURS...WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NOW INDICATED BY RADAR / LIGHTNING DATA. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP / INCREASE ACROSS THIS REGION...AND MAY ALSO MOVE INTO OR DEVELOP ACROSS NWRN SD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS WARM ADVECTION INCREASES GIVEN MOIST / MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THIS AREA. INCREASING SLY LOW-LEVEL JET COMBINED WITH 25 TO 35 KT WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SEVERE STORMS / SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL / DAMAGING WINDS...BUT OVERALL THREAT MAY REMAIN ISOLATED GIVEN LARGE-SCALE RIDGING ACROSS THIS REGION. ..GOSS.. 07/10/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ... 48720185 47600089 46840098 45340057 44160057 44480334 45140407 46470406 47220364 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 10 13:57:20 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 10 Jul 2004 08:57:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407101358.i6ADw5112333@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 101357 SWOMCD SPC MCD 101356 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-101530- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1588 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0856 AM CDT SAT JUL 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SERN ND THROUGH W CNTRL MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 101356Z - 101530Z THREAT FOR MAINLY HAIL MAY PERSIST FOR ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS FROM SE ND INTO W CNTRL MN. SEVERE THREAT IS TOO ISOLATED FOR A WW AT THIS TIME. UNLESS STORMS BEGIN TO SHOW SIGNS OF INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. EARLY THIS MORNING STORMS WERE DEVELOPING FROM SERN ND INTO W CNTRL MN. STORMS APPEAR TO BE DEVELOPING WITHIN A ZONE OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...AND AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE INSTABILITY. THE 12Z ABERDEEN RAOB SHOWED 1800 J/KG OF MUCAPE ABOVE A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER...SUGGESTING STORMS ARE ELEVATED. GIVEN WIDESPREAD CLOUDS OBSERVED ON THE MORNING VISIBLE IMAGERY ACROSS MN AND SERN ND...SURFACE BASED ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THOUGH CLOUD LAYER SHEAR APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION...ELEVATED NATURE OF THE STORMS SUGGESTS HAIL SHOULD REMAIN THE PRIMARY SHORT TERM THREAT. ..DIAL.. 07/10/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR... 44989611 46059700 47479728 47669547 45489524 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 10 17:03:00 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 10 Jul 2004 12:03:00 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407101703.i6AH3T130588@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 101702 SWOMCD SPC MCD 101702 SDZ000-101900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1589 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1202 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CNTRL SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 101702Z - 101900Z STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS THEY DEVELOP EAST THROUGH WRN AND TOWARD CNTRL SD. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. SOME THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL EXIST AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS EAST TOWARD CNTRL/ERN SD LATER THIS AFTERNOON. PARTS OF WRN AND W CNTRL SD ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A BAND OF MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM WRN SD SWWD THROUGH SE WY. THIS CLOUD FIELD IS ASSOCIATED WITH A ZONE OF MID LEVEL ASCENT THAT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. CLEAR SKIES PERSIST DOWNSTREAM ACROSS CNTRL SD AND THIS WILL PROMOTE FURTHER DESTABILIZATION. A QUASISTATIONARY BOUNDARY EXISTS ACROSS CNTRL SD FROM JUST W OF MOBRIDGE SEWD TO W OF YANKTON. THE BOUNDARY LAYER W OF THIS BOUNDARY IS DRIER AND DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED INTO THE UPPER 50S. HOWEVER...THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS SUFFICIENT FOR MODERATE INSTABILITY BY MID AFTERNOON GIVEN PRESENCE OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING. STORMS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING WITHIN ZONE OF MID LEVEL ASCENT ACROSS WRN SD SHOULD INTENSIFY AS THEY DEVELOP EAST AND THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. HOWEVER...SOME THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY ALSO EXIST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS STORMS CROSS THE BOUNDARY IN ERN SD WHERE LOWER LCL HEIGHTS...STRONGER INSTABILITY AND BETTER LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR SHOULD BE PRESENT. ..DIAL.. 07/10/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...UNR... 43320335 45700180 45710003 44749972 43080176 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 10 17:22:24 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 10 Jul 2004 12:22:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407101722.i6AHMr103370@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 101722 SWOMCD SPC MCD 101721 VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-101915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1590 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1221 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KY...MUCH OF WV AND WRN/SRN VA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 101721Z - 101915Z CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER NERN WV/FAR WRN VA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD AT AROUND 20 KTS. AS NEW DEVELOPMENT OCCURS WITH AND AHEAD OF THIS LINE AND IT/S OUTFLOW...THERE MAY BE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF WRN VA WITHIN THE NEXT 2 HOURS. THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE LIMITED ENOUGH THAT A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. IN ADDITION TO THE ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT...CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED TO TRAIN ALONG NW-SE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM WCENTRAL VA INTO SCENTRAL VA. AS A CLUSTER OF STORMS MOVE SEWD ACROSS FAR NERN WV/WRN VA OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS...NUMEROUS MERGERS ARE ANTICIPATED TO ENHANCE THE COLD POOL THAT HAS DEVELOPED WITH THIS CLUSTER OVER NERN WV. AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM OVER WRN/SRN VA WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE WITH MUCAPES INCREASING TO AROUND 2500 J/KG. SUBTLE MID LEVEL WIND MAX OF 30 KTS OBSERVED BY RECENT JACKSON VWP DATA MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW FOR A FORWARD PROPAGATING WEAKLY ORGANIZED LINE OF STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. FARTHER SW...OTHER STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER ERN KY INTO SRN WV/FAR SWRN VA AND MAY POSE AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS WELL...GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL WIND MAX AND INSTABILITY. WITH VERY HIGH PW VALUES LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES TO 2 IN/HR WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING/TRAINING IN THE WAA ZONE ALONG STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM WCENTRAL INTO SCENTRAL VA AND ON THE SW PERIPHERY OF THE COLD POOL OVER CENTRAL WV. ..CROSBIE.. 07/10/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN... 36588008 37048224 37598311 38418315 38718272 38998174 38848000 37967882 37257835 36847805 36707828 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 10 18:09:51 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 10 Jul 2004 13:09:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407101810.i6AIAM116615@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 101809 SWOMCD SPC MCD 101809 NCZ000-SCZ000-101945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1591 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0109 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NC AND ERN SC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 101809Z - 101945Z ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH CONVECTION AS IT CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY OVER ERN SC/SERN NC. OVERALL MARGINAL THREAT AND LACK OF BETTER ORGANIZATION SHOULD PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WATCH. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY ALONG E-W ORIENTED BOUNDARY OVER SERN NC AND ALONG A N-S BOUNDARY OVER ERN SC. MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH MLCAPES FROMM 2000-2500 J/KG EXISTS AHEAD OF THESE BOUNDARIES WHERE INCIPIENT STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE LAST HOUR. WEAK NWLY FLOW SHOULD CARRY MOST OF THE CONVECTION SEWD TOWARDS THE COAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SUFFICIENTLY DRY AIR ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 9 DEG C FROM THE SFC-2 KM MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. AS CONVECTION MERGES WITH THE SEA BREEZE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS MAY AID IN RAPID UPDRAFT STRENGTHENING AND A BRIEF INCREASE IN THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT. OVERALL THREAT SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY UNORGANIZED AND PULSE-TYPE IN NATURE THAT A WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ..CROSBIE.. 07/10/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE... 32748007 33338112 33828104 34528032 35257949 35217791 35007612 33627867 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 10 18:54:03 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 10 Jul 2004 13:54:03 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407101854.i6AIsV132519@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 101853 SWOMCD SPC MCD 101853 OHZ000-WVZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-102200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1592 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0153 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL IL EWD INTO SRN OH AND FAR NRN KY CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 101853Z - 102200Z ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS AS THEY MOVE EWD AROUND 20 KTS ACROSS FAR NRN KY/SRN OH AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/ERN IND. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE MARGINAL NATURE OF THE THREAT. FARTHER WEST ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NEAR PIA ESEWD TO NEAR HUF...CONVECTION WILL LIKELY TRAIN LEADING TO THE MAIN RISK BEING HEAVY RAINFALL WITH RATES FROM 1-2 IN/HR. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN AREAL EXTENT AND STRENGTH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY WHERE STRONGER /20-25 KT/ OF LOW TO MID LEVEL UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW EXISTS PER REGIONAL VWP DATA. MODERATE INSTABILITY WAS IN PLACE OVER THIS AREA WITH MLCAPES FROM 1500-2500 J/KG. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WEAK WIND FIELDS...ONLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED. FARTHER WEST...WEAKER MID LEVEL FLOW /ON THE ORDER OF 10-15 KTS/ ALONG WITH BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL AID IN VERY SLOW STORM MOTIONS WITH CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL IL INTO WCENTRAL IND. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE ENTIRE EXTENT OF THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY WHERE CONVERGENCE AND CELL TRAINING WILL BE MAXIMIZED. HOWEVER...THE GREATEST THREAT FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES WILL EXIST OVER CENTRAL IL INTO WCENTRAL IND. THIS IS WHERE A COMBINATION OF FOCUSED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WITH MID 70S DEWPTS /PW VALUES AROUND 1.8 IN./ AND NEARLY STATIONARY STORM MOTIONS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AREAS OF OVER 2 IN/HR RAINFALL RATES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ..CROSBIE.. 07/10/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...ILX...LSX... 39218901 39689056 40249039 40338881 40168590 39668269 39328156 38598189 38378501 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 10 19:19:55 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 10 Jul 2004 14:19:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407101920.i6AJKM107104@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 101919 SWOMCD SPC MCD 101919 NDZ000-102145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1593 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0219 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL THROUGH ERN ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 101919Z - 102145Z PARTS OF CNTRL ND ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION WITHIN THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. ONCE STORMS DEVELOP...THEY WILL LIKELY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREAT. HOWEVER...SOME THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY ALSO EXIST. A WW MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS AREA WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS OR ONCE IT BECOMES MORE CLEAR WHEN STORMS MIGHT DEVELOP. EARLY THIS AFTERNOON A QUASISTATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM SW ND SEWD THROUGH CNTRL AND SERN SD. RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE EXISTS N AND E OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH AN AXIS OF NEAR 70 DEWPOINTS EXTENDING THROUGH CNTRL AND ERN ND. HOWEVER...THE 18Z RAOB FROM BISMARK SHOWS THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO BE RATHER SHALLOW ACROSS CNTRL ND AND SUGGESTS DEWPOINTS MIGHT MIX INTO THE LOWER 60S AS SURFACE HEATING CONTINUES. THE DEEPER MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER EXISTS FARTHER EAST INTO THE ERN DAKOTAS...AND SELY LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES FROM THIS AREA MIGHT HELP TO OFFSET THE EFFECT OF MIXING SOMEWHAT ACROSS CNTRL ND. THE NRN EXTENTION OF A ZONE OF MID LEVEL ASCENT APPEARS TO BE SPREADING INTO CNTRL SD. HOWEVER...THE BISMARK 18Z RAOB SHOWS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY REMAIN CAPPED TO DEEP CONVECTION UNTIL SURFACE TEMPERATURES CLIMB THROUGH THE UPPER 80S. ONCE STORMS DEVELOP...THEY SHOULD INTENSIFY AS THEY SPREAD EAST TOWARD ERN ND WHERE RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...LOWER LCLS AND STRONGER INSTABILITY WILL EXIST. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER THIS AREA WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS CNTRL ND WHERE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS BACKED TO ELY DUE IN PART TO INFLUENCE OF THERMAL LOW OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. THUS THE TORNADO THREAT WILL DEPEND IN PART ON THE ABILITY TO MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LOW LCLS IN THIS AREA AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. ..DIAL.. 07/10/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... 46089888 46380166 47450163 47789990 47909791 46549749 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 10 19:21:31 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 10 Jul 2004 14:21:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407101921.i6AJLx107773@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 101921 SWOMCD SPC MCD 101920 FLZ000-102115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1594 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0220 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SOUTH FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 101920Z - 102115Z ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS AS CONVECTIVE LINE/S MOVE WWD ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH FL DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OVERALL THREAT APPEARS TO BE MARGINAL AND THUS A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. CONVECTION HAS ORGANIZED ALONG EAST COAST SEE BREEZE FRONT OVER THE LAST HOUR OVER SOUTH FL...AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE INTO CENTRAL FL. STRENGTHENING NELY UPPER LEVEL WINDS NOTED ON WV SAT IMAGERY DOWNWIND OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER THE GULF STREAM WILL AID IN ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL STORM VENTING. ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES FROM 2000-2500 J/KG...CONVECTIVE LINE IS FORECAST TO BE MAINTAINED IF NOT STRENGTHEN SOME OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL DRYING MAY SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COLD POOL. ALONG WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREATS WITH THE LINE/S AS THEY MOVE EWD ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH FL. ..CROSBIE.. 07/10/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW... 25638121 26298189 26858213 27258217 27908135 27958053 27098018 25538017 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 10 19:24:55 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 10 Jul 2004 14:24:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407101925.i6AJPY108732@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 101919 SWOMCD SPC MCD 101919 NDZ000-102145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1593 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0219 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL THROUGH ERN ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 101919Z - 102145Z PARTS OF CNTRL ND ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION WITHIN THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. ONCE STORMS DEVELOP...THEY WILL LIKELY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREAT. HOWEVER...SOME THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY ALSO EXIST. A WW MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS AREA WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS OR ONCE IT BECOMES MORE CLEAR WHEN STORMS MIGHT DEVELOP. EARLY THIS AFTERNOON A QUASISTATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM SW ND SEWD THROUGH CNTRL AND SERN SD. RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE EXISTS N AND E OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH AN AXIS OF NEAR 70 DEWPOINTS EXTENDING THROUGH CNTRL AND ERN ND. HOWEVER...THE 18Z RAOB FROM BISMARK SHOWS THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO BE RATHER SHALLOW ACROSS CNTRL ND AND SUGGESTS DEWPOINTS MIGHT MIX INTO THE LOWER 60S AS SURFACE HEATING CONTINUES. THE DEEPER MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER EXISTS FARTHER EAST INTO THE ERN DAKOTAS...AND SELY LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES FROM THIS AREA MIGHT HELP TO OFFSET THE EFFECT OF MIXING SOMEWHAT ACROSS CNTRL ND. THE NRN EXTENTION OF A ZONE OF MID LEVEL ASCENT APPEARS TO BE SPREADING INTO CNTRL SD. HOWEVER...THE BISMARK 18Z RAOB SHOWS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY REMAIN CAPPED TO DEEP CONVECTION UNTIL SURFACE TEMPERATURES CLIMB THROUGH THE UPPER 80S. ONCE STORMS DEVELOP...THEY SHOULD INTENSIFY AS THEY SPREAD EAST TOWARD ERN ND WHERE RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...LOWER LCLS AND STRONGER INSTABILITY WILL EXIST. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER THIS AREA WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS CNTRL ND WHERE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS BACKED TO ELY DUE IN PART TO INFLUENCE OF THERMAL LOW OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. THUS THE TORNADO THREAT WILL DEPEND IN PART ON THE ABILITY TO MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LOW LCLS IN THIS AREA AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. ..DIAL.. 07/10/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... 46089888 46380166 47450163 47789990 47909791 46549749  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 10 19:26:14 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 10 Jul 2004 14:26:14 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407101926.i6AJQf109339@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 101921 SWOMCD SPC MCD 101920 FLZ000-102115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1594 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0220 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SOUTH FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 101920Z - 102115Z ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS AS CONVECTIVE LINE/S MOVE WWD ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH FL DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OVERALL THREAT APPEARS TO BE MARGINAL AND THUS A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. CONVECTION HAS ORGANIZED ALONG EAST COAST SEE BREEZE FRONT OVER THE LAST HOUR OVER SOUTH FL...AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE INTO CENTRAL FL. STRENGTHENING NELY UPPER LEVEL WINDS NOTED ON WV SAT IMAGERY DOWNWIND OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER THE GULF STREAM WILL AID IN ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL STORM VENTING. ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES FROM 2000-2500 J/KG...CONVECTIVE LINE IS FORECAST TO BE MAINTAINED IF NOT STRENGTHEN SOME OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL DRYING MAY SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COLD POOL. ALONG WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREATS WITH THE LINE/S AS THEY MOVE EWD ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH FL. ..CROSBIE.. 07/10/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW... 25638121 26298189 26858213 27258217 27908135 27958053 27098018 25538017  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 10 19:34:46 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 10 Jul 2004 14:34:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407101935.i6AJZE111177@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 101934 SWOMCD SPC MCD 101934 MTZ000-WYZ000-IDZ000-102100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1595 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0234 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 101934Z - 102100Z THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL POSSIBLE. MONITORING AREA FOR POSSIBLE WW. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE PAST HOUR ACROSS WRN MT IN AREA OF INCREASING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT...AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC NW. DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER UP TO 600 MB AND UNDIRECTIONAL SWLY FLOW...WITH ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS INCREASING WITH HEIGHT...WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW SEVERE WIND GUSTS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO 30-40 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL AID IN STORM ORGANIZATION. THIS STRONGER SHEAR ALONG WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY ALSO SUPPORT SEVERE HAIL. IF IT APPEARS THAT WIDESPREAD STORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA...WW WOULD LIKELY BE WARRANTED. ..IMY.. 07/10/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW...TFX...MSO... 46100941 45010999 44661357 45891465 48741379 49171217 48820905 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 10 20:07:36 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 10 Jul 2004 15:07:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407102008.i6AK86119865@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 102007 SWOMCD SPC MCD 102007 MNZ000-NDZ000-102200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1596 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0307 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NW MN THROUGH NERN ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 102007Z - 102200Z PORTIONS OF NERN ND THROUGH NW MN ARE BEING MONITORED FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. IF IT BECOME EVIDENT THAT ADDITIONAL SURFACE BASED STORMS CAN INITIATE IN THIS AREA...A WW MAY BE NEEDED. THIS AFTERNOON A LINE OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS FROM SW ONTARIO SWWD INTO EXTREME NW MN. THESE STORMS APPEAR TO HAVE DEVELOPED WHERE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER CONVECTION MERGED WITH A BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SW ONTARIO SWWD THROUGH NRN ND. THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE S OF THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS PARTS OF NW MN THROUGH NERN ND. PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS AND WEAKER CONVERGENCE ALONG THE MN/ND PORTION OF THE BOUNDARY RAISES UNCERTAINTY REGARDING FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DOES SHOW CAP WEAKENING IN VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY AND ASCENT ACCOMPANYING UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SPREADING EAST. SHEAR PROFILES FAVOR SUPERCELLS WITH ANY SURFACE BASED STORMS THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP. ..DIAL.. 07/10/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF... 48989508 48629476 47909656 47739842 48469883 48729768 48959636 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 10 20:36:12 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 10 Jul 2004 15:36:12 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407102036.i6AKae127136@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 102036 SWOMCD SPC MCD 102035 MNZ000-SDZ000-102200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1597 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0335 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 102035Z - 102200Z CONVECTION INTENSIFYING OVER WRN/CENTRAL SD SHOULD CONTINUE TO POSE A SEVERE THREAT AS IT MOVES EAST OF WW 596. THUS A NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/ERN SD BY 22Z. RAPIDLY DEVELOPING CONVECTION INCLUDING A FEW INCIPIENT SUPERCELLS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ENEWD AROUND 20 KTS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LEAD CELL OVER STANLEY COUNTY WILL MOVE OUT OF WW 596 BY AROUND 23Z. MODERATE TO HIGH INSTABILITY DOWNSTREAM OF WW 596 OVER THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL/ERN SD WITH MLCAPES AROUND 3000 J/KG AND MINIMAL INHIBITION SHOULD SUPPORT A CONTINUED SEVERE THREAT INTO THIS AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ..CROSBIE.. 07/10/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...UNR... 43099973 44480002 45839969 45919726 45829680 44449677 43129724 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 10 20:40:38 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 10 Jul 2004 15:40:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407102041.i6AKf5128162@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 102040 SWOMCD SPC MCD 102039 NDZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-102245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1598 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0339 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MT...SWRN ND AND NWRN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 102039Z - 102245Z SE MT THROUGH SW ND AND NW SD ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION. SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS ONCE STORMS DEVELOP. THIS AFTERNOON A SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS FROM NE ND SWWD INTO SW ND AND SE MT. ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE S OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWING MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO INCREASE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NE WY AND SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT OVER SERN MT AS WELL. AN INCREASE IN CUMULUS HAS ALSO BEEN OBSERVED ALONG THE BOUNDARY ACROSS SWRN ND. SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH ND MIGHT DELAY THE ONSET OF DEEPER CONVECTION OVER SOME OF THE AREA...BUT CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY DOES SHOW A STORM DEVELOPING ON THE BOUNDARY OVER CNTRL W CNTRL ND. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP AS THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE. SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS STRUCTURES AS STORMS DEVELOP. ..DIAL.. 07/10/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW... 46440225 45130396 45190532 46240602 46980414 47150180 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 10 20:42:08 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 10 Jul 2004 15:42:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407102042.i6AKgZ128814@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 102036 SWOMCD SPC MCD 102035 MNZ000-SDZ000-102200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1597 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0335 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 102035Z - 102200Z CONVECTION INTENSIFYING OVER WRN/CENTRAL SD SHOULD CONTINUE TO POSE A SEVERE THREAT AS IT MOVES EAST OF WW 596. THUS A NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/ERN SD BY 22Z. RAPIDLY DEVELOPING CONVECTION INCLUDING A FEW INCIPIENT SUPERCELLS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ENEWD AROUND 20 KTS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LEAD CELL OVER STANLEY COUNTY WILL MOVE OUT OF WW 596 BY AROUND 23Z. MODERATE TO HIGH INSTABILITY DOWNSTREAM OF WW 596 OVER THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL/ERN SD WITH MLCAPES AROUND 3000 J/KG AND MINIMAL INHIBITION SHOULD SUPPORT A CONTINUED SEVERE THREAT INTO THIS AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ..CROSBIE.. 07/10/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...UNR... 43099973 44480002 45839969 45919726 45829680 44449677 43129724  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 10 20:44:48 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 10 Jul 2004 15:44:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407102045.i6AKjK129283@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 102040 SWOMCD SPC MCD 102039 NDZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-102245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1598 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0339 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MT...SWRN ND AND NWRN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 102039Z - 102245Z SE MT THROUGH SW ND AND NW SD ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION. SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS ONCE STORMS DEVELOP. THIS AFTERNOON A SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS FROM NE ND SWWD INTO SW ND AND SE MT. ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE S OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWING MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO INCREASE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NE WY AND SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT OVER SERN MT AS WELL. AN INCREASE IN CUMULUS HAS ALSO BEEN OBSERVED ALONG THE BOUNDARY ACROSS SWRN ND. SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH ND MIGHT DELAY THE ONSET OF DEEPER CONVECTION OVER SOME OF THE AREA...BUT CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY DOES SHOW A STORM DEVELOPING ON THE BOUNDARY OVER CNTRL W CNTRL ND. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP AS THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE. SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS STRUCTURES AS STORMS DEVELOP. ..DIAL.. 07/10/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW... 46440225 45130396 45190532 46240602 46980414 47150180  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 10 20:54:22 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 10 Jul 2004 15:54:22 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407102054.i6AKso132097@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 102054 SWOMCD SPC MCD 102053 NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-102300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1599 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0353 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN WY/NERN CO AND THE NEB PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 102053Z - 102300Z ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FRONT RANGE OF NERN CO/SERN WY OVER THE NEXT HOUR. A WW MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT HOUR FOR NRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE SHEAR WILL BE STRONGER. CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SERN WY AND NCENTRAL CO WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASED LOW LEVEL INFLOW AND INSTABILITY OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WEST OF A LEE TROUGH OVER FAR SERN WY AND OVER THE FRONT RANGE OF NERN CO. STRONGER THAN MODEL FORECAST MID LEVEL FLOW SAMPLED BY THE MDW WITH 35-40 KTS AT 6 KM WILL AID DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS OVER SERN WY AND THE NEB PANHANDLE GIVEN MODERATE INSTABILITY OF 1000-1500 J/KG. FARTHER SOUTH...DECREASED MID LEVEL FLOW SAMPLED BY THE PLATTEVILLE PROFILER WILL LIMIT OVERALL UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION WITH CONVECTION IN THIS AREA...BUT ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND/HAIL IS STILL ANTICIPATED OVER NERN CO THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. ..CROSBIE.. 07/10/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...BOU...CYS... 39780469 40410494 41320483 42090453 42940443 42970325 42980276 42870259 41240276 39820327 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 10 20:57:13 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 10 Jul 2004 15:57:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407102057.i6AKvh100521@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 102057 SWOMCD SPC MCD 102056 NDZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-102300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1600 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0356 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...W THROUGH W CNTRL SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 596... VALID 102056Z - 102300Z STORMS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE LAST HOUR...AND THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST NEXT COUPLE HOURS ACROSS W CNTRL SD. OTHER HIGH BASED STORMS OVER ERN WY MAY INTENSIFY AS THEY MOVE EWD INTO WRN SD. STORMS HAVE INCREASED DURING THE PAST HOUR WITHIN ZONE OF MID LEVEL ASCENT SPREADING EWD THROUGH WRN SD. THE INCREASE IN INTENSITY CAN BE ATTRIBUTED TO STORMS ENCOUNTERING STRONGER INSTABILITY AND WEAKER CAP DOWNSTREAM TOWARD CNTRL SD. FARTHER WEST ACROSS WRN SD...STORMS HAVE MOVED E OF THE WRN PORTION OF WW 596...BUT WILL LEAVE THIS AREA IN THE WATCH SINCE HIGH BASED STORMS OVER ERN WY MAY INTENSIFY AS THE MOVE EAST INTO WRN SD. ..DIAL.. 07/10/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW... 46440225 45130396 45190532 46240602 46980414 47150180 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 10 20:57:34 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 10 Jul 2004 15:57:34 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407102058.i6AKwA100606@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 102054 SWOMCD SPC MCD 102053 NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-102300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1599 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0353 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN WY/NERN CO AND THE NEB PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 102053Z - 102300Z ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FRONT RANGE OF NERN CO/SERN WY OVER THE NEXT HOUR. A WW MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT HOUR FOR NRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE SHEAR WILL BE STRONGER. CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SERN WY AND NCENTRAL CO WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASED LOW LEVEL INFLOW AND INSTABILITY OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WEST OF A LEE TROUGH OVER FAR SERN WY AND OVER THE FRONT RANGE OF NERN CO. STRONGER THAN MODEL FORECAST MID LEVEL FLOW SAMPLED BY THE MDW WITH 35-40 KTS AT 6 KM WILL AID DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS OVER SERN WY AND THE NEB PANHANDLE GIVEN MODERATE INSTABILITY OF 1000-1500 J/KG. FARTHER SOUTH...DECREASED MID LEVEL FLOW SAMPLED BY THE PLATTEVILLE PROFILER WILL LIMIT OVERALL UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION WITH CONVECTION IN THIS AREA...BUT ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND/HAIL IS STILL ANTICIPATED OVER NERN CO THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. ..CROSBIE.. 07/10/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...BOU...CYS... 39780469 40410494 41320483 42090453 42940443 42970325 42980276 42870259 41240276 39820327  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 10 20:59:01 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 10 Jul 2004 15:59:01 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407102059.i6AKxV100745@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 102057 SWOMCD SPC MCD 102056 NDZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-102300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1600 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0356 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...W THROUGH W CNTRL SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 596... VALID 102056Z - 102300Z STORMS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE LAST HOUR...AND THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST NEXT COUPLE HOURS ACROSS W CNTRL SD. OTHER HIGH BASED STORMS OVER ERN WY MAY INTENSIFY AS THEY MOVE EWD INTO WRN SD. STORMS HAVE INCREASED DURING THE PAST HOUR WITHIN ZONE OF MID LEVEL ASCENT SPREADING EWD THROUGH WRN SD. THE INCREASE IN INTENSITY CAN BE ATTRIBUTED TO STORMS ENCOUNTERING STRONGER INSTABILITY AND WEAKER CAP DOWNSTREAM TOWARD CNTRL SD. FARTHER WEST ACROSS WRN SD...STORMS HAVE MOVED E OF THE WRN PORTION OF WW 596...BUT WILL LEAVE THIS AREA IN THE WATCH SINCE HIGH BASED STORMS OVER ERN WY MAY INTENSIFY AS THE MOVE EAST INTO WRN SD. ..DIAL.. 07/10/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW... 46440225 45130396 45190532 46240602 46980414 47150180  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 10 21:08:26 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 10 Jul 2004 16:08:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407102108.i6AL8r103414@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 102108 SWOMCD SPC MCD 102107 NCZ000-VAZ000-102300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1601 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0407 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NRN/CENTRAL NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 102107Z - 102300Z ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL PERSIST WITH CONVECTIVE COMPLEX AS IT MOVES SWD INTO NCENTRAL NC. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WITH MODEST COLD POOL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SWD FROM SCENTRAL VA INTO NCENTRAL NC OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STEEP LAPSE RATES AROUND 9 DEG C FROM THE SFC-3 KM AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG WILL AID IN CONTINUED ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE/GUST FRONT. LACK OF STRONGER BACKGROUND ENVIRONMENTAL WIND FIELDS AS EVIDENT BY REGIONAL VWP/S SHOULD LIMIT A GREATER SEVERE THREAT. ..CROSBIE.. 07/10/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...RNK... 35787969 36008021 36408035 36578019 36557930 36567807 36187779 35727817 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 10 22:06:38 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 10 Jul 2004 17:06:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407102207.i6AM75118528@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 102206 SWOMCD SPC MCD 102205 IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-102330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1602 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0505 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NEB...FAR NWRN MO AND SWRN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 102205Z - 102330Z THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OVER SERN NEB TO THE SOUTH OF OMA AREA. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE LIMITED AREA OF A SEVERE THREAT SHOULD PRECLUDE A NEED FOR A WW. LATEST SFC AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES NARROW AXIS OF INSTABILITY AHEAD OF AN MCV OVER ERN NEB WHERE MLCAPES FROM 2500-3000 J/KG EXISTED. MODIFIED FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR CURRENT OBSERVATIONS OVER FAR SERN NEB INDICATE AROUND 25 J/KG OF REMAINING MLCINH. MODERATE /25 TO 30 KTS/ MID LEVEL FLOW ON THE SERN PERIPHERY OF THE MCV AS SAMPLED RECENTLY BY THE FAIRBURY PROFILER AND HASTINGS VWP ABOVE SSELY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT AROUND 30 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THUS SOME ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT IS POSSIBLE IF CONVECTION CAN OVERCOME REMAINING CINH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND NARROWNESS OF INSTABILITY AXIS SHOULD PRECLUDE A LONGER LIVED SEVERE THREAT. ..CROSBIE.. 07/10/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP... 39939523 40189631 40549632 41309600 41319502 40989444 39789427 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 10 22:11:27 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 10 Jul 2004 17:11:27 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407102212.i6AMCG119863@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 102211 SWOMCD SPC MCD 102210 SDZ000-NEZ000-110015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1603 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0510 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 596... VALID 102210Z - 110015Z CONTINUE WW 596...SEVERE THREAT WILL EVENTUALLY INCREASE EAST OF WW 596 BY THE 11/00-02Z TIME FRAME. EVOLUTION OF VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE CLUSTER IS UNDERWAY...AND APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH FORCING NEAR WEAK MID-LEVEL JET STREAK/SHORT WAVE TROUGH...EMBEDDED WITHIN SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES AND MIGRATING OUT OF THE NORTH CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF UPPER SYSTEM IS PROGGED BY MODELS THROUGH THE MID EVENING HOURS...AND CLUSTER OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND THROUGH 11/00Z IN UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 1500 TO 3000 J/KG. THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WITH DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF DOWNBURSTS NEAR STRONGER CELLS...WITH EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF SIGNIFICANT SURFACE COLD POOL AND BROADER SCALE DAMAGING WIND THREAT LIKELY AFTER 11/00Z. UNTIL THIS OCCURS...EVOLVING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW TO ADVANCE EAST OF PIERRE AND SURROUNDING AREAS OF CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. ..KERR.. 07/10/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR... 45160067 45859970 45579818 45019723 43949771 43279856 42970043 43340138 44110067 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 10 22:38:21 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 10 Jul 2004 17:38:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407102238.i6AMcl126245@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 102238 SWOMCD SPC MCD 102237 MTZ000-110030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1604 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0537 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF CENTRAL MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 597... VALID 102237Z - 110030Z CONTINUE WW. NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED TO THE NORTH/EAST OF CURRENT WW BY 11/00Z. FAIRLY BROAD AREA OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED PAST FEW HOURS IN LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME/STEEPER ISENTROPIC ASCENT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA INTO WEST CENTRAL MONTANA. THIS IS AHEAD OF VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST INTO THE NORTHERN U.S./CANADIAN ROCKIES... AND STRONGER FORCING WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT NEAR/NORTH AND EAST OF THE LEWISTOWN AREA BY 11/00-02Z. AS THIS OCCURS...CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO ENCOUNTER MORE MOIST AND FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW /BENEATH MODERATE MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES/...AND POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WITH DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. STRONGER ACTIVITY COULD APPROACH THE JORDAN AREA BY 11/03Z. ..KERR.. 07/10/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX... 47871179 48881072 48580745 47240628 46520743 46330907 46541119 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 10 23:52:13 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 10 Jul 2004 18:52:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407102352.i6ANqk110796@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 102352 SWOMCD SPC MCD 102351 NDZ000-110145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1605 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0651 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 598... VALID 102351Z - 110145Z CONTINUE WW. ALTHOUGH MID/UPPER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ALONG EAST-WEST SURFACE BOUNDARY VICINITY OF INTERSTATE 94 APPEARS TO BE WEAK...MID-LEVEL INHIBITION SEEMS WEAK ENOUGH TO SUPPORT CONTINUING RISK OF ISOLATED INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS. SURFACE DEW POINTS REMAIN AROUND 70F IN NORTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW JUST TO THE NORTH OF BOUNDARY...AND THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 2000 TO 4000 J/KG...UNTIL INHIBITION INCREASES AS BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO COOL BY 01-02Z. NORTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE ALSO ENHANCING LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS BENEATH WEAK TO MODERATE WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW...SUFFICIENTLY SO THAT SUPERCELLS REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS...PERHAPS A TORNADO. ..KERR.. 07/10/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... 46730222 46830161 46980124 46949970 47199904 47379821 46949788 46419830 46109998 46290186 46280245 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 11 00:57:42 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 10 Jul 2004 19:57:42 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407110058.i6B0wA126762@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 110057 SWOMCD SPC MCD 110056 SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-110230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1606 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0756 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF NRN/CENTRAL AND ERN MT...FAR WRN ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 597...600... VALID 110056Z - 110230Z SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN AREAL COVERAGE OVER WW 597 AND THUS WW 597 IS ANTICIPATED TO BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT /02Z/. CONVECTION OVER ERN PORTIONS OF WW 597 WILL MOVE INTO WW 600 AND IS ANTICIPATED TO INTENSIFY. MUCH OF WW 597 HAS BEEN STABILIZED FROM OUTFLOW OF CONVECTIVE LINE AS IT MOVED EWD ACROSS SWRN/WCENTRAL MT. THE MAIN THREAT FOR SEVERE OVER WW 597 THE NEXT 2 HOURS WILL BE INTO TWO AREAS. ONE WITH THE CONVECTIVE LINE AS IT MOVES TOWARDS WW 600 AND BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER GREATER INSTABILITY. THE OTHER OVER NWRN PORTIONS OF WW 597...NWRN MT WHERE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE TO FEED INTO THE WEST SIDE OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE WILL SUPPORT SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR A CONTINUED THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. OVERALL COVERAGE OF SEVERE THREAT WILL BE CONFINED ENOUGH THAT A REPLACEMENT WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. FARTHER EAST...SEVERE CONVECTION PRESENTLY IN WW 600 WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AS IT MOVES FROM ERN MT INTO WRN ND WHILE MOVING DOWN INSTABILITY AXIS. ..CROSBIE.. 07/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...TFX...MSO... 46670968 47271126 46471363 47451364 48471279 49021055 47980522 47720260 45460303 45350660 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 11 01:52:44 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 10 Jul 2004 20:52:44 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407110153.i6B1rB107915@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 110152 SWOMCD SPC MCD 110151 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-110245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1607 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0851 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SD/W CNTRL MN CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 598... VALID 110151Z - 110245Z NEW WW MAY BE ISSUED BEFORE 03Z. SMALL CONVECTIVE CLUSTER HAS EVOLVED DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS WEST OF FARGO...WHERE HEATED VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER NORTH OF WEAK SURFACE WIND SHIFT REMAINS QUITE UNSTABLE WITH MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE UP TO 4000 J/KG. THIS IS SUPPORTING A FEW INTENSE UPDRAFTS AND POTENTIAL FOR VERY HEAVY RAIN/LARGE HAIL...WITH DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS STILL POSSIBLE ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO. OTHERWISE...SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FARGO AREA IS EXPECTED BY 04Z...WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT SURFACE COLD POOL/GUST FRONT STILL POSSIBLE. ACTIVITY MAY BE SLOW TO WEAKEN AS IT SPREADS EAST OF FARGO INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...BUT LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES BECOME PROGRESSIVELY LESS STEEP ACROSS MINNESOTA. GIVEN WEAK FLOW REGIME...SEVERE THREAT LIKELY WILL DIMINISH BEFORE 06Z. ..KERR.. 07/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS... 46559868 47219790 47669704 47379571 46639510 45729575 45699733 45719860 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 11 02:02:46 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 10 Jul 2004 21:02:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407110203.i6B23C110189@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 110202 SWOMCD SPC MCD 110202 SDZ000-110400- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1608 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0902 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/EASTERN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 599... VALID 110202Z - 110400Z CONTINUE WW. INITIAL CONVECTIVE CLUSTER HAS ALL BUT DISSIPATED WELL EAST OF THE PIERRE AREA... WITH RENEWED INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING ACROSS PIERRE AND AREAS TO THE IMMEDIATE EAST. THIS IS BEING SUPPORTED BY WARM ADVECTION ABOVE SURFACE COLD POOL...ON EASTERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH PLAINS/PLATEAU LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE. LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY...WHICH MAY PERSIST ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH. ..KERR.. 07/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...UNR... 45109970 45669811 44729731 43579757 43149940 43990032 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 11 02:42:39 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 10 Jul 2004 21:42:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407110243.i6B2h5119908@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 110242 SWOMCD SPC MCD 110241 KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-110515- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1609 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0941 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SW NEB/NW KS CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 110241Z - 110515Z RISK FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL CONTINUES...RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL IS INCREASING. ONGOING SMALL CONVECTIVE CLUSTER WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH...AND MAY EVEN EXPAND/INTENSIFY A BIT FURTHER THIS EVENING AS CONVERGENCE/WARM ADVECTION INCREASE ON NOSE OF NOCTURNALLY STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET. OBSERVATIONAL/MODEL DATA SUGGEST STRONGEST FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH 30 TO 35 KT CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS JET WILL BECOME FOCUSED NEAR THE WESTERN KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER. WITH CAPE UP TO 2000 J/KG...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES MAY SUPPORTING CONTINUING RISK FOR LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...PRIMARY THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAIN TOTALS. THOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FOR ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTING CONVECTION ARE NOT EXTREME...HEAVY RAIN CORES WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND MAY BEGIN TO TRAIN ACROSS AREAS AROUND MCCOOK BY 06Z. ..KERR.. 07/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TOP...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU... 40480221 40870091 39589791 39289990 39340171 39810264 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 11 03:41:20 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 10 Jul 2004 22:41:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407110341.i6B3fl102042@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 110341 SWOMCD SPC MCD 110340 MTZ000-110545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1610 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1040 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 600... VALID 110340Z - 110545Z CONTINUE WW. NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS PARTS OF EXTREME EASTERN MONTANA/WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY 06Z. SMALL BUT INTENSE/ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTER HAS EVOLVED DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS WEST/SOUTHWEST OF JORDAN MT. ACTIVITY IS NOW NORTH OF WEAK EAST-WEST SURFACE BOUNDARY...WHERE MODERATE EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS BENEATH 30 TO 40 KT WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW IS CONTRIBUTING TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES. AS ACTIVITY CONTINUES EASTWARD WITH ZONE OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...INTO MORE MOIST LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA WITH MID/UPPER 50S SURFACE DEW POINTS...THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE. STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE ALSO QUITE LIKELY...AND MAY REACH THE GLENDIVE AREA BY 06-07Z. ..KERR.. 07/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW... 47260692 47530593 47430506 47360419 46960411 46710469 46630563 46660663 46720730 47010705 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 11 04:20:04 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 10 Jul 2004 23:20:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407110420.i6B4KV111422@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 110419 SWOMCD SPC MCD 110419 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-110615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1611 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1119 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SE ND/WRN MN/ERN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 599...601... VALID 110419Z - 110615Z REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 599 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 05Z...CONTINUING REMAINING VALID PORTION OF 601. DOWNSTREAM OF VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...PRIMARY SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK CONTINUES TO PROGRESS JUST NORTH OF THE U.S. BORDER INTO WESTERN ONTARIO. HOWEVER...TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO WEAKER SUBTROPICAL BRANCH OF WESTERLIES ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS AXIS CONTINUES TO AID SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF STORMS FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA THROUGH SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST AS TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVERNIGHT...BUT INTENSITIES WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN COOLER LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. ..KERR.. 07/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR... 47719570 47639420 46679470 45769454 44609554 44139666 43549747 43689884 44519816 45379832 45959788 46519692 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 11 05:41:36 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 11 Jul 2004 00:41:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407110542.i6B5gB132296@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 110540 SWOMCD SPC MCD 110540 NDZ000-MTZ000-110615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1612 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1240 AM CDT SUN JUL 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ECNTRL MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 600... VALID 110540Z - 110615Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 600 IS SET TO EXPIRE AT 0600 UTC AND WILL LIKELY NOT BE REISSUED. CONVECTIVE CLUSTER ACROSS ECNTRL MT CONTINUES DOWNSTREAM OF MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW OVER THE PAC NW. THE TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO MOVE DOWNSTREAM ALONG WEAK E-W ORIENTED FRONT SITUATED FROM ECNTRL MT INTO SRN ND THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AIDED BY WARM ADVECTION ON NOSE OF SELY LLJ. RUC40 FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST QUITE A SUBSTANTIAL DRY LAYER EXISTS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE AND THERE COULD BE ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ALONG WITH HAIL ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. COVERAGE SEEMS SPARSE ENOUGH TO NOT REQUIRE A NEW WW DOWNSTREAM. HOWEVER...IF SIGNS OF INTENSIFICATION ARE NOTED...ONE MAY BE REQUIRED. ..RACY.. 07/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BIS...BYZ...GGW... 46240714 47420716 47740415 46940247 46170245 45850490 45970663 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 11 15:14:52 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 11 Jul 2004 10:14:52 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407111515.i6BFFH125300@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 111514 SWOMCD SPC MCD 111514 ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-111645- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1613 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1014 AM CDT SUN JUL 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IA...NE MO THROUGH NRN AND CNTRL IL CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE VALID 111514Z - 111645Z PORTIONS OF ERN IA...NW MO AND NRN THROUGH CNTRL IL WILL BE UPGRADED TO SLIGHT RISK ON THE 1630Z UPDATE. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS THEY DEVELOP ESE INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL THE MAIN THREATS. EARLY THIS MORNING TWO AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS WERE OBSERVED OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY. THE MOST ORGANIZED WAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN MCV OVER WRN WI WITH A TRAILING LINE OF STORMS EXTENDING SWWD THROUGH NRN IA. ANOTHER AREA OF STORMS WAS OVER SRN IA. THE MCV WILL MOVE ESEWD INTO THE LESS UNSTABLE REGIME ACROSS WI WHICH WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR STORMS ON NRN PART OF LINE TO INTENSIFY. THE STORMS ON THE SWRN PART OF THIS SYSTEM ACROSS NRN IA HAD BEEN BACKBUILDING ALONG THE LOW LEVEL JET...AND RECENT RADAR DATA SUGGEST THESE STORMS ARE NOW BEGINNING TO FORWARD PROPAGATE SEWD. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND CONVECTION S OF THIS FEATURE AND MEAN CLOUD LAYER FLOW LARGELY PARALLEL TO THE ORIENTATION OF THE STORMS...IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN WHETHER OR NOT THESE STORMS CAN MAINTAIN THEIR INTENSITY AND REMAIN ORGANIZED AS THEY DEVELOP SEWD. STORMS OVER SRN IA MAY ALSO INTENSITY INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE DES MOINES VWP SHOW 20-30 KT WLY CLOUD LAYER FLOW WHICH IS ORIENTED MORE FAVORABLY WITH RESPECT TO THE N-S LINE OF STORMS OVER SE IA TO PROMOTE EWD PROPAGATION TOWARD THE DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE ACROSS NRN/CNTRL IL. ..DIAL.. 07/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN... 40388827 40059211 41329198 42269121 41938774 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 11 15:33:55 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 11 Jul 2004 10:33:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407111534.i6BFYK130394@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 111533 SWOMCD SPC MCD 111533 IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-111730- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1614 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1033 AM CDT SUN JUL 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SE NEB...SW IA AND EXTREME NW MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 111533Z - 111730Z THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS SE NEB AND SPREAD EWD INTO PARTS OF SW IA AND NW MO. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. LATE THIS MORNING A BAND OF CLOUDS RESULTING FROM ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AN MCV IS MOVING EWD THROUGH SE NEB. THE ATMOSPHERE DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS FEATURE IS ALREADY MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...AND FURTHER DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO WARM. LATEST RADAR DATA ALREADY SHOW ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MCV OVER SE NEB AND ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. OTHER STORMS MIGHT ALSO DEVELOP ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DROPPING SWD THROUGH WRN IA/ERN NEB. MULTICELL STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE AFTERNOON. ..DIAL.. 07/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX... 40099575 40759695 41919675 41909487 40659402 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 11 17:49:12 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 11 Jul 2004 12:49:12 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407111749.i6BHna101611@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 111749 SWOMCD SPC MCD 111748 NDZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-111945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1615 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1248 PM CDT SUN JUL 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN MT AND WRN ND/FAR NWRN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 111748Z - 111945Z ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER PORTIONS OF NCENTRAL/ERN MT IS LIKELY TO BECOME ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND BEGIN POSING A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL AS IT MOVES INTO FAR NWRN SD/WRN ND IN THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. A WW IS ANTICIPATED TO BE NEEDED BY 19Z. LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL MT EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY AND RECENT PASSAGE IN THE BILLINGS VWP DATA. ELEVATED CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO INTENSIFY AS LOW LEVEL DESTABILIZATION OCCURS BENEATH MID LEVEL CAA AS EVIDENT BY 17Z GGW SOUNDING. MODIFICATION OF THIS SOUNDING FOR CONDITIONS SLIGHTLY SOUTHEAST WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE WARMER OVER ERN MT/WRN ND AND FAR NWRN SD INDICATES STILL AROUND 50-100 J/KG OF MLCINH. WITH A FEW MORE HOURS OF HEATING...SFC TEMPERATURE IN THE UPPER 80S WITH DEWPTS IN THE LOWER-MID 60S...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTION TO BECOME ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND BEGIN TO POSE A SEVERE THREAT. STRENGTH OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION SHOULD START OUT AS SUPERCELLULAR IN NATURE. FARTHER WEST OVER SCENTRAL/SWRN MT...LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WILL AID IN MAINTAINING WLY WINDS LIMITING UPSLOPE FLOW AND POTENTIAL FOR ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AS COLD FRONT MOVES SWD INTO SWRN/SCENTRAL MT AND UPSLOPE INCREASES IN THIS AREA CONVECTION WILL THEN BECOME LIKELY. DESPITE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG WIND PROFILES... INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 500-700 J/KG WOULD LIKELY BE INSUFFICIENT FOR A WW. ..CROSBIE.. 07/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...TFX... 44940399 45310528 46020588 47500674 47950873 48660922 48940865 49000053 48040051 46210060 44980209 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 11 18:43:52 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 11 Jul 2004 13:43:52 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407111844.i6BIiG116384@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 111843 SWOMCD SPC MCD 111843 SDZ000-NEZ000-112045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1616 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0143 PM CDT SUN JUL 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 111843Z - 112045Z THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP OVER THE BLACK HILLS WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. STRENGTH OF UPSLOPE/DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES SUGGESTS THAT LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. EWD MOVEMENT OF CONVECTION WILL BE SLOW INITIALLY DUE TO HIGHER CINH EAST OF THE HILLS. THUS A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED BEFORE 21Z. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS INCIPIENT CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE BLACK HILLS. MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE FROM 1000-1500 J/KG ALONG WITH 30-35 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT STRONG UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. MODIFIED 12Z RAP SOUNDING FOR 18Z CONDITIONS INDICATES BETWEEN 100-200 J/KG OF MLCINH OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS EAST OF THE HILLS...AND THUS EWD MOVEMENT OF CONVECTION/SEVERE THREAT AWAY FROM THE HILLS IS ANTICIPATED TO BE SLOW EVEN WITH ROTATING UPDRAFTS. SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF HEATING WOULD BE NEEDED WITH LOWER ELEVATION TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER-MID 90S TO SUPPORT EWD ADVANCEMENT OF CONVECTION. ADDITIONAL HIGH BASED CONVECTION OVER ERN WY MAY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES INTO WRN SD LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHEN CINH WILL BE WEAKER. ..CROSBIE.. 07/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR... 43190380 44140395 44730365 45230322 45350221 45210170 44300113 42990108 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 11 19:06:05 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 11 Jul 2004 14:06:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407111906.i6BJ6V122173@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 111905 SWOMCD SPC MCD 111904 IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-112100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1617 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0204 PM CDT SUN JUL 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NEB...SRN IA...NRN MO AND NRN/CNTRL IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 602...603... VALID 111904Z - 112100Z STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REINTENSIFY ACROSS EXTREME ERN IA OR NWRN IL NEXT HOUR OR TWO. OTHER STORMS WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER SRN IA THROUGH NRN MO. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREATS. EARLY THIS AFTERNOON A SEWD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM SRN WI SWWD THROUGH ERN IA THEN WWD THROUGH SRN IA. STORMS THAT DEVELOPED ALONG THE NRN PART OF THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS ERN IA HAVE WEAKENED AS THEY ENCOUNTERED A BOUNDARY LAYER THAT HAS BEEN STABILIZED BY PREVIOUS CONVECTION. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THAT ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY ON THE REMNANT OUTFLOW AS IT CONTINUES EWD THROUGH NRN IL WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE. THE SWRN PART OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING THROUGH SRN IA HAS BEEN MORE ACTIVE. SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND 20 TO 25 KT FROM THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR OVER SWRN IA HAS MAINTAINED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS PORTION OF THE BOUNDARY. AN MCV IS ALSO MOVING EWD THROUGH SERN NEB AND MID LEVEL ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO PROMOTE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. STORMS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO INTENSIFY IN THIS AREA DUE TO PRESENCE OF CAP. RECENT TRENDS IN RADAR SUGGEST STORMS ARE FINALLY STARTING TO INCREASE IN INTENSIFY AND TAP IN THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S... RESULTING IN A WEAKER CAP. ..DIAL.. 07/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX... 40099575 40759695 41919675 41909487 40659402 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 11 19:54:08 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 11 Jul 2004 14:54:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407111954.i6BJsW103930@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 111953 SWOMCD SPC MCD 111952 MTZ000-WYZ000-112115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1618 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0252 PM CDT SUN JUL 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN MT AND NERN WY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 111952Z - 112115Z EARLIER THOUGHTS OF DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER ERN MT/WRN ND FROM HIGH BASED CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER...SEVERE CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY OVER CENTRAL MT ALONG LEE TROUGH/COLD FRONT WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THEREFORE WW ISSUANCE IS NOW LIKELY TO OCCUR AROUND 21Z. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE LEAD SHORTWAVE SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG LEE TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL MT FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. MODIFIED 18Z SOUNDING FROM GTF INDICATES THAT THERE EXISTS ABOUT 50 J/KG OF MLCINH OVER CENTRAL MT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. BUT A LITTLE MORE HEATING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND MID LEVEL COOLING AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH SUGGESTS DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR WITHIN THE HOUR ALONG THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM BOZEMAN NEWD TO JUST WEST OF GTF AND OVER THE MTNS OF SWRN MT. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WEST OF LEE TROUGH AND EAST OF COLD FRONT FROM AREAS AROUND GTF SWD TO NEAR LIVINGSTON SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL DUE TO THE HIGH BASED NATURE OF CONVECTION AND MLCAPES FROM 500-1000 J/KG. UNLIKE ALONG THE COLD FRONT...IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS ALONG THE LEE TROUGH BEFORE THE COLD FRONT OVERTAKES THIS BOUNDARY...IT WILL LIKELY BECOME QUICKLY SEVERE AS MLCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG AND BETTER LOW LEVEL INFLOW EXIST EAST OF THE BOUNDARY. ADDITIONALLY ... CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NERN WY JUST EAST OF THE BIG HORNS...SHOULD QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE ONCE THEY BECOME SURFACE BASED AND EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO FAR SERN MT. ..CROSBIE.. 07/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX... 44950895 45321006 46571083 47341081 49020986 48980730 48940514 44630423 44430666 44850774 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 11 19:59:24 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 11 Jul 2004 14:59:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407111959.i6BJxt105354@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 111959 SWOMCD SPC MCD 111958 NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-112200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1619 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0258 PM CDT SUN JUL 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NEB PANHANDLE/WRN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 111958Z - 112200Z THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEB PANHANDLE AND SHOULD POSE AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND/HAIL THREAT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE MARGINAL NATURE OF THE THREAT. HIGH BASED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES SLOWLY ESEWD DOWN INSTABILITY AXIS OVER THE NEB PANHANDLE. MEDICINE BOW PROFILER INDICATES THAT MID LEVEL FLOW SHOULD INCREASE TO AROUND 30 KTS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ON THE SRN FRINGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES. BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL AID IN AROUND 35 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTING UPDRAFT ROTATION AND THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS. HIGH BASED NATURE OF CONVECTION SUGGESTS THAT DAMAGING WINDS MAY BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. CONVECTION MAY ORGANIZE INTO A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER THIS EVENING AS LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES. ..CROSBIE.. 07/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...BOU...CYS... 41000286 41320363 42610389 43030336 42990148 42720093 41310139 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 11 22:19:43 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 11 Jul 2004 17:19:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407112220.i6BMK6113048@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 112219 SWOMCD SPC MCD 112219 ILZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-120015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1620 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0519 PM CDT SUN JUL 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB/SRN IA/NRN AND CNTRL IL/PARTS OF NRN AND CNTRL MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 602...603...604... VALID 112219Z - 120015Z CONTINUE WW 604. WW 603 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 23Z. WW 602 MAY BE REPLACED WITH NEW WW ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL IL. BROADER SCALE TROUGH...WITH A COUPLE OF EMBEDDED SMALLER SCALE WAVES/ CYCLONIC VORTICITY MAXIMA...CONTINUES TO MIGRATE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE HAS AIDED CONSIDERABLE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WHICH HAS GENERATED MERGING SURFACE COLD POOLS NOW SPREADING INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. LEADING EDGE OF OUTFLOW IS NOW SURGING ACROSS THE SPRINGFIELD IL AREA...BUT CURVES BACK ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSOURI INTO THE KIRKSVILLE MO AREA...WHERE THE BOUNDARY HAS BECOME TEMPORARILY QUASI-STATIONARY. ANOTHER SOUTHEASTWARD SURGING PORTION OF OUTFLOW EXTENDS WEST OF KIRKSVILLE INTO THE VICINITY OF ST. JOSEPH. WEAK NORTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF OUTFLOW INTO VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI/SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN INDIANA. DEW POINTS ARE IN THE LOWER/MID 70S...AND HEATING HAS CONTRIBUTED TO MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE UP TO 3000 J/KG ACROSS THIS REGION. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF VIGOROUS NEW UPDRAFTS NEAR GUST FRONT...WITH EVAPORATIVE COOLING NEAR HEAVY RAIN CORES MAINTAINING STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT AND POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS AT LEAST INTO EARLY EVENING. GIVEN WEAKNESS OF LARGE-SCALE FLOW REGIME...STORM MOTIONS ARE GENERALLY UNDER 35 KT...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO MINIMIZE BROADER SCALE DAMAGING WIND THREAT. ..KERR.. 07/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...EAX...OAX...TOP... 40079546 39919450 39849348 40009313 40599245 40169184 39839140 39599065 39878964 40258910 40658890 40598817 39938779 39168824 38788871 38488951 38539047 38819187 38759246 38839344 39089452 39489548 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 11 23:35:27 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 11 Jul 2004 18:35:27 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407112335.i6BNZp102383@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 112335 SWOMCD SPC MCD 112334 NDZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-120100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1621 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0634 PM CDT SUN JUL 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN MT...WRN ND AND NWRN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 605... VALID 112334Z - 120100Z SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL/SERN MT SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD AROUND 30 KTS. LEAD SUPERCELL OVER POWDER RIVER COUNTY WILL MOVE OUT OF WW 605 BY 01Z. THUS A NEW WW WILL BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF NWRN SD AND WRN ND BEFORE 01Z. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS NEW THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OCCURS AND CONSOLIDATES INTO A LINE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT/LEE TROUGH INTERSECTION OVER CENTRAL MT DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IN THE MEAN TIME...THE LEAD OF SEVERAL SUPERCELLS OVER ERN MT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF WW 605 AND INTO WRN ND BY AROUND 01Z. RELATIVELY HIGH LCL/LFC HEIGHTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MAKE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. IF CONVECTION CAN MAINTAIN SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS BEFORE BECOMING LINEAR EWD INTO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS/LOWER LCL ENVIRONMENT OVER NWRN ND...LOW LEVEL SHEAR INCREASING AROUND SUNSET MAY SUPPORT A THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES IN THIS AREA. ..CROSBIE.. 07/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...TFX... 45020815 46280839 49020838 49010011 44920037 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 12 00:17:30 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 11 Jul 2004 19:17:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407120017.i6C0Hr113164@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 120017 SWOMCD SPC MCD 120016 MOZ000-ILZ000-KSZ000-120215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1622 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0716 PM CDT SUN JUL 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NE KS...NRN AND CNTRL MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 604... VALID 120016Z - 120215Z REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 604 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 01Z. AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS A BIT MORE QUICKLY ACROSS THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS... RISK FOR VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. CONVECTION HAS ALREADY WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY SOUTHEAST OF KIRKSVILLE MISSOURI...AND THOUGH NEW CONVECTION IS STILL POSSIBLE ON OUTFLOW BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE COLUMBIA AND ST. LOUIS AREAS...ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG STALLING UPSTREAM FLANK OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW...FROM NEAR/EAST OF CHILLICOTHE INTO THE ST. JOSEPH AREA. THIS APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH ENHANCED WARM ADVECTION ALONG WEAK WEST SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET CURVING IN ANTICYCLONIC ARC FROM CENTRAL KANSAS INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING IN CONFLUENT REGIME NORTH OF THIS AXIS NEAR THE CONCORDIA KS AREA. THESE STORMS MAY BE SHORT-LIVED AS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION STRENGTHENS WITH ONSET OF SURFACE COOLING. ACTIVITY WEST OF ST. JOSEPH INTO AREAS NORTHEAST OF KANSAS CITY WILL BE MORE PERSISTENT...BUT MAY BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY/SHORTLY AFTER 03Z AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERS/WEAKENS IN RESPONSE TO CONTINUED PROGRESSION OF BROAD UPPER TROUGH FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. UNTIL THEN...LARGE HAIL/GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN STRONGEST CELLS...BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN SLOW MOVING/TRAINING CONVECTION MAY BE PRIMARY THREAT. ..KERR.. 07/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...GID... 39419804 39669696 39939595 39689498 39709388 39339299 39219202 39209131 38999067 38369065 38549183 38759238 38689318 38649415 38999575 38919693 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 12 02:19:45 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 11 Jul 2004 21:19:45 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407120224.i6C2Oe118286@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 120219 SWOMCD SPC MCD 120219 NDZ000-MTZ000-120415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1623 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0919 PM CDT SUN JUL 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MT AND WRN/CNTRL ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 605...607... VALID 120219Z - 120415Z CONTINUE WW 607. WW 605 WILL BE REPLACED WITH NEW WW BY 03Z. MOST SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NOW APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING ALONG LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS/LEE SURFACE TROUGH IN THE VICINITY OF THE MONTANA/NORTH DAKOTA BORDER. LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPEST ALONG THIS AXIS...WITH DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER SUPPORTIVE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THIS HAS ALREADY OCCURRED WITH STORMS NEAR BAKER MT...WHERE 0156Z SURFACE OBSERVATION HAD RECORDED 50 KT GUST. OUTFLOWS APPEAR LIKELY TO MERGE INTO ONE LARGE EASTWARD PROPAGATING GUST FRONT NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WHERE WEAK EASTERLY COMPONENT TO SURFACE FLOW WILL ENHANCE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES BENEATH 30 TO 40 KT WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW. BOUNDARY LAYER IS INCREASINGLY MOIST ACROSS WESTERN INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ...WITH MID 60S TO NEAR 70F DEW POINTS CONTRIBUTING TO SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR INTENSIFYING UPDRAFTS WITH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL. DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL ALSO CONTINUE WITH EVOLVING SEVERE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM... WHICH MAY APPROACH MINOT AFB INTO AREAS WEST OF BISMARCK BY 04-05Z. OTHERWISE SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE CELLS CONTINUE BENEATH COLD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA...AND MAY PERSIST ANOTHER FEW HOURS...AIDED BY INCREASING NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME. ..KERR.. 07/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BIS...BYZ...GGW...TFX... 48940147 48130157 47370109 46460133 46100208 46090337 46270413 45770504 45590635 46230857 47040927 47720798 47860740 47820659 48050597 48990563 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 12 02:55:13 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 11 Jul 2004 21:55:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407120255.i6C2ta127130@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 120254 SWOMCD SPC MCD 120254 SDZ000-120530- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1624 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0954 PM CDT SUN JUL 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL / ERN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 120254Z - 120530Z SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SERN SD THROUGH LATE EVENING...AND A WW DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE NEEDED. CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER CENTRAL SD WILL CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY EWD...AND THEN WILL LIKELY TURN SEWD WITH TIME AS LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES OUT OF THE SSW. CAP IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...AND STORMS ARE NOW MOVING INTO MOIST AXIS. THEREFORE...WITH LOW LEVEL FORCING DUE TO WARM ADVECTION CONTINUING...STORMS WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN INTENSITY AS THEY MOVE E AND SEWD. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS APPEAR LIKELY. ..JEWELL.. 07/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...UNR... 44040047 44579992 44509716 42979752 43339973 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 12 04:35:23 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 11 Jul 2004 23:35:23 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407120435.i6C4Zj121552@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 120435 SWOMCD SPC MCD 120434 SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-120630- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1625 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1134 PM CDT SUN JUL 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN MT...ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 607...608... VALID 120434Z - 120630Z WW 608 LIKELY WILL BE CANCELLED SHORTLY. CONTINUE REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 607. SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO EASTERN DAKOTAS OVERNIGHT. DAMAGING WIND THREAT APPEARS LIKELY TO PERSIST WITH CONVECTIVE LINE AS IT SPREADS ACROSS THE MINOT AFB AND BISMARCK AREAS BY 06Z. SLIGHTLY COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER EASTWARD INTO THE DEVILS LAKE AND JAMESTOWN AREAS MAY BEGIN TO MITIGATE WIND POTENTIAL ALONG GUST FRONT THEREAFTER. HOWEVER...STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME TO THE SOUTHEAST OF MAIN UPPER TROUGH LIFTING INTO SASKATCHEWAN WILL MAINTAIN VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTH DAKOTA/EXTREME NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA BY 12Z. STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT WITH CAPE OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG FOR MOIST PARCELS LIFTED ABOVE NEAR SURFACE INVERSION LAYER WILL SUPPORT RISK OF LEAST LARGE HAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ..KERR.. 07/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR...GGW... 48979879 47869888 46319770 45359745 45310057 45320207 45420305 45460309 45880346 46820323 47350370 47410422 47430428 47670529 48620427 49050409 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 12 06:29:56 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 12 Jul 2004 01:29:56 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407120630.i6C6UJ118031@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 120629 SWOMCD SPC MCD 120629 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-120800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1626 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0129 AM CDT MON JUL 12 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN ND...EXTREME NRN SD AND NWRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 607...609... VALID 120629Z - 120800Z DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL THREATS WILL BE SPREADING EWD INTO THE RED RIVER VLY AND PERHAPS INTO NWRN MN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A WW WILL BE ISSUED DOWNSTREAM INTO NWRN MN. GRAND FORKS WEATHER RADAR SHOWS A DEVELOPING BOW ECHO AROUND 50 MILES WEST OF DEVILS LAKE WITH TIGHT HIGH REFLECTIVITY ALONG THE LEADING EDGE AND REAR INFLOW NOTCHES ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF THE LINE. THUS...DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL THROUGH 07-09Z WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN THE DEVILS LAKE AREA EWD TO THE RED RIVER NORTH OF GRAND FORKS AS IT TRANSLATES EWD AT 45 KTS. THOUGH THE AIR MASS DOWNSTREAM EAST OF THE RED RIVER IS MORE STABLE THAN FARTHER WEST...UPSTREAM MCS IS WELL-DEVELOPED AND THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE MAY EXTEND EWD INTO NWRN MN. AS SUCH...ANOTHER WW DOWNSTREAM WILL BE NEEDED SHORTLY. OTHERWISE...TSTMS ARE APT TO BACKBUILD WWD ALONG THE SD/ND BORDER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...ALONG NOSE OF 30 KT LLJ. MAXIMUM WARM ADVECTION IS LIKELY TO REMAIN IN THAT AREA THROUGH 10Z AT LEAST. MUCAPES TO 2500 J/KG AND FAVORABLE CAPE BEARING SHEAR WILL ENCOURAGE LARGE HAIL PRODUCTION IN THE STRONGER STORMS. MOST OF THE STRONGER ACTIVITY WILL STAY INVOF SRN EDGE OF WW 609. ..RACY.. 07/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...ABR...BIS... 45580064 46360211 46950113 47650044 48400043 48980122 49029736 48899549 48129438 46929513 45709656 45519753 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 12 08:14:46 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 12 Jul 2004 03:14:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407120815.i6C8FB112251@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 120814 SWOMCD SPC MCD 120813 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-120945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1627 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0313 AM CDT MON JUL 12 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND...EXTREME NRN SD AND NWRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 609...610... VALID 120813Z - 120945Z DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL THREATS WILL MOVE INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY 09Z AND INTO NWRN MN THEREAFTER. WELL-DEFINED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION HAS EVOLVED FROM ONGOING MCS AND WAS CENTERED VCNTY PILOT MOUND MANITOBA AT 08Z. STRONG REAR INFLOW WRAPPING AROUND THIS ENTITY WAS SAMPLED IN WAKE OF THE LINEAR MCS WITH MINOT AFB VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWING 50 KTS BELOW 1KM AND 70 KTS AT 2KM. STRONGEST WIND SIGNATURE PASSED JUST NORTH OF DEVILS LAKE AND APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING GIVEN EXPANDING STRATIFORM-TYPE PCPN JUST TO ITS WEST. HOWEVER...GUSTY WINDS... POSSIBLY TO SEVERE LEVELS...MAY OCCUR DOWNSTREAM INTO NWRN MN GIVEN HOW WELL-ORGANIZED THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON HOW FAR EWD THE SEVERE THREAT WILL ADVANCE GIVEN MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT TOWARD INTERNATIONAL FALLS. MEANWHILE...CELL MERGER HAS OCCURRED VCNTY JAMESTOWN AND RESULTANT CELL APPEARS TO HAVE BRIEFLY GAINED SUPERCELLULAR CHARACTERISTICS. THIS CELL IS APT TO RIDE NRN PERIPHERY OF STRONGEST INSTABILITY AXIS INTO THE FARGO AREA THROUGH 930Z. WHILE LARGE HAIL COULD OCCUR...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT CELL MAY EVOLVE INTO A BOW AND GIVE DAMAGING WINDS TO AREAS EWD THROUGH WCNTRL MN BEFORE DAYBREAK. FINALLY...TO THE SOUTH...WARM ADVECTION DERIVED TSTMS CONTINUE TO BACKBUILD INTO NCNTRL SD AND MAY GIVE LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS TO AREAS ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF WW 609. ..RACY.. 07/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS... 45380070 46760050 47559870 48959771 48989296 45849398 45839807 45579813 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 12 09:53:53 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 12 Jul 2004 04:53:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407120954.i6C9sI108602@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 120953 SWOMCD SPC MCD 120953 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-121100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1628 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0453 AM CDT MON JUL 12 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND NRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 610... VALID 120953Z - 121100Z DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF WCNTRL-CNTRL MN THROUGH 11-12 UTC. NRN PART OF THE LINEAR MCS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED SINCE 09 UTC AS IT ENCOUNTERED MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT EAST OF THE RED RIVER VLY. AS A RESULT...LATEST STATUS GUIDANCE HAS CLEARED NRN PARTS OF WW 610 WHERE REINTENSIFICATION OF THE CONVECTION APPEARS UNLIKELY. TO THE SOUTH...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DEPICTS NERN PERIPHERY OF AN INSTABILITY AXIS INTO WCNTRL/SWRN MN...AND SRN END OF THE LINE HAS MAINTAINED CHARACTER THIS MORNING. GRAND FORKS AFB OBSERVATION NOTED A 47KT WIND GUST AT 0848Z. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY TRACK ESEWD INTO THE FERGUS FALLS...PELICAN RAPIDS AND DETROIT LAKES AREAS BETWEEN 1000-1100 UTC WITH POSSIBLE DAMAGING WINDS. WILL MAINTAIN WW FARTHER E TOWARD THE BRAINERD AND LITTLE FALLS REGION...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TSTMS WILL WEAKEN BY THE TIME THEY REACH THESE LOCATIONS. IF THAT IS THE CASE...WW MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY. ..RACY.. 07/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR... 45929749 47769719 47689369 45919414 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 12 13:53:56 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 12 Jul 2004 08:53:56 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407121354.i6CDsH120740@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 121353 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121353 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-121600- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1629 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0853 AM CDT MON JUL 12 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN ND/NERN AND ERN SD/WRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 121353Z - 121600Z SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS PARTS OF ERN SD AND WRN MN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. A WATCH MAY BE NEED OVER PARTS OF THIS REGION SOON. RECENT SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER FAULK COUNTY APPEARS TO HAVE OCCURRED WHERE STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERSECTED LEE/THERMAL TROUGH AXIS WITHIN VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW ALONG AND NORTH OF THE OUTFLOW COUPLED WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL FLOW AND ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH SHOULD MAINTAIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELLS THROUGH THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY CONTRIBUTING TO HIGH CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...STRONG MESOSCALE FORCING INVOF OUTFLOW AND LEE TROUGH...COMBINED WITH A COUPLE MORE HOURS OF HEATING ACROSS ERN SD...SHOULD RESULT IN ADDITIONAL INTENSE TSTM DEVELOPMENT. THIS SCENARIO APPEARS TO BE SUPPORTED BY LATEST ETA...ETAKF...AND GFS MODEL RUNS WITH THOSE MODELS GENERATING CONVECTIVE QPF AND MODEST UVVS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. ..CARBIN.. 07/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...UNR... 46200015 46219568 43659608 43650047 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 12 16:13:10 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 12 Jul 2004 11:13:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407121613.i6CGDV122216@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 121612 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121612 GAZ000-SCZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-121845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1630 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1112 AM CDT MON JUL 12 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TN/SWRN NC/NRN AL/NWRN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 121612Z - 121845Z SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL WAS INCREASING ACROSS PARTS OF THE TN VALLEY AND THE SOUTH. A SCATTERING OF DAMAGING WIND EVENTS MAY UNFOLD ACROSS THESE AREAS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. RANDOM/PULSE NATURE OF THE THREAT WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO CONTAIN THE OVERALL HAZARD WITHIN A TSTM WATCH BUT PARTS OF THE REGION WILL BE UPGRADED TO HIGHER SEVERE WIND PROBABILITIES/SLGT RISK IN THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK. TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED ACROSS PARTS OF NERN AL WITHIN MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WHERE MLCAPE VALUES WERE APPROACHING 1500 J/KG. THIS REGION APPEARS TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK BACKGROUND ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH DIFFLUENT MID LEVEL FLOW IN THE BASE OF A TROUGH CROSSING THE OH VALLEY. FURTHERMORE...WEAK CAPPING...STRONG HEATING...AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL PROMOTE VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS DESPITE RELATIVELY WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. MID LEVEL DRY AIR INTRUSION AND SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS INCREASING TO MORE THAN 20F SHOULD ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO A HIGHER CONCENTRATION OF DAMAGING WET DOWNBURST WINDS AS THIS CONVECTION INTENSIFIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN WEAK 10-15KT MID LEVEL FLOW EXPECT THE BULK OF THIS CONVECTION TO REMAIN PULSE IN NATURE. HOWEVER...THE REGION WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR FURTHER ORGANIZATION...AND POSSIBLY A MORE WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE THREAT AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. ..CARBIN.. 07/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN... 35758349 33468306 32538451 32508669 34658806 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 12 17:40:07 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 12 Jul 2004 12:40:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407121740.i6CHeS132032@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 121739 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121739 VAZ000-TNZ000-NCZ000-KYZ000-121945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1631 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1239 PM CDT MON JUL 12 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE AND ERN TN...FAR SERN KY AND SWRN VA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 121739Z - 121945Z ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH CONVECTION AS IT CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE/DEVELOP ALONG SLOWLY SEWD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS SERN/SCENTRAL KY. IF GREATER ORGANIZATION OF THE LINE CAN OCCUR...THEN A WW MAY BE NEEDED IN A FEW HOURS. MID LEVEL MCV OVER SCENTRAL IND WAS SUPPORTING 35-40 KT NWLY WINDS IN THE 2-3 KM LAYER OBSERVED IN LOUISVILLE AND EVANSVILLE VWP DATA. DESPITE INCREASING INSTABILITY DOWNSTREAM OF THE CONVECTION WITH MLCAPES TO AROUND 1500 J/KG AS OF 17Z...LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON THE ORDER OF 7 DEG C/KM REMAIN MARGINAL TO SUPPORT DAMAGING WINDS PRESENTLY. AS FURTHER HEATING OCCURS...THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL INCREASE BY MID AFTERNOON. IF A MORE ORGANIZED LINE CAN DEVELOP...THEN GIVEN STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS A GREATER THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS WOULD EXIST AND A WW MAY BE REQUIRED. ..CROSBIE.. 07/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...HUN... 35148758 36038793 36418661 36898502 36938441 37188282 36478176 35788281 35488506 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 12 18:42:38 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 12 Jul 2004 13:42:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407121843.i6CIh0129548@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 121842 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121841 NJZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-PAZ000-NCZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-122045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1632 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0141 PM CDT MON JUL 12 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN PA/FAR SRN NJ...MUCH OF MD/DE...CENTRAL/ERN VA SWD INTO CENTRAL NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 121841Z - 122045Z ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP/INTENSIFY ALONG LEE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NCENTRAL VA INTO CENTRAL NC. STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW WILL EXIST OVER VA/SERN PA/SRN NJ AND MD/DE...WHERE ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE. FARTHER SOUTH...MORE PULSE SEVERE IS ANTICIPATED WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT. THE OVERALL ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT APPEARS MARGINAL...BUT THE AREA WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW/S. LATEST VWP DATA SUGGESTS ABOUT 20-25 KTS OF MID LEVEL FLOW SPREADING EWD INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS. THE STRONGEST FLOW SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL/NRN PARTS OF THE REGION. 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A LEE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NCENTRAL VA/WRN MD SWD INTO THE PIEDMONT OF NC. A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM A LOW OVER SCENTRAL PA SEWD INTO NERN MD AND CENTRAL DE AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE SLOWLY NWD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO REMAIN ANCHORED ON THE BOUNDARY AND GIVEN MODEST LOW LEVEL SHEAR /10-15 KTS OF 0-1 KM PER DOVER VWP/ MAY SUPPORT BRIEF TORNADOES. FURTHER SOUTHWEST...CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES EAST AWAY FROM LEE TROUGH OVER WRN PORTIONS OF WRN VA/NC INTO CENTRAL VA/NC. OVERALL SHEAR PROFILES WILL REMAIN MARGINAL FOR SUPERCELLS AND LARGE HAIL...ON THE ORDER OF 25-30 KTS. HOWEVER MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. ..CROSBIE.. 07/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RAH...ILM...RNK...GSP... 35718126 37167969 38237878 39277808 40057743 40187641 39467508 38747518 37047633 35957776 34667912 35278129 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 12 19:05:14 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 12 Jul 2004 14:05:14 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407121905.i6CJ5Z107215@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 121904 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121904 SDZ000-NEZ000-122100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1633 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0204 PM CDT MON JUL 12 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME NRN NEB... SCNTRL SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 611... VALID 121904Z - 122100Z ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS ARE BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL WATCHES MAY BE NEEDED OVER PORTIONS OF SD AND PERHAPS NRN NEB IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A WELL-DEFINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS SERN SD INTERSECTS A STRONG THERMALLY INDUCED SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH OVER SCNTRL SD EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG CONVERGENCE AND INTENSE HEATING INVOF THIS INTERSECTION CONTINUES TO PROMOTE ISOLD TSTM DEVELOPMENT NORTH OF 9V9. ADDITIONAL STRONG AND OCCASIONALLY SEVERE STORMS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING ACROSS PARTS OF NRN AND ERN SD OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WITHIN STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. STRONG CAP/CONVECTIVE INHIBITION TO THE SOUTH OF WW 611 IS CONTINUING TO SUPPRESS MORE VIGOROUS DEVELOPMENT WITHIN HIGHLY UNSTABLE AND STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS TO WHETHER THE CAP ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA CAN BE OVERCOME THROUGH HEATING AND WEAK BACKGROUND FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER WAVE PASSING BY TO THE NORTH. NEW STORM INITIATION CONTINUES TO BE MOST LIKELY FROM THE TROUGH/LOW ACROSS EXTREME NCNTRL NEB ENEWD ACROSS THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN SERN SD OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. PERSISTENT MESOSCALE FORCING NEAR THESE FEATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO OVERCOME STRONG INHIBITION. CELLS TRACKING ALONG OR NEAR THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SHOULD ACQUIRE ROTATION GIVEN HIGH VALUES OF SRH AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR. IN ADDITION TO VERY LARGE HAIL...A TORNADO AND HIGH WIND THREAT MAY ALSO DEVELOP GIVEN VOLATILE ENVIRONMENT. ..CARBIN.. 07/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...UNR... 42819809 42830022 43340079 44149969 44099651 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 12 21:49:10 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 12 Jul 2004 16:49:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407122149.i6CLnd114782@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 122148 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122148 SCZ000-GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-130015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1634 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0448 PM CDT MON JUL 12 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SRN AL...SRN/ERN GA AND THE PIEDMONT OF SC CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 122148Z - 130015Z CONVECTIVE LINE WILL MOVE SWD AROUND 20 KTS POSING A CONTINUED THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS INTO CENTRAL/SRN AL AND SRN/ERN GA. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE NEWD INTO CENTRAL SC WHEN OUTFLOW INTERACTS WITH ONGOING STRONG CONVECTION. STRONGEST STORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN CONVECTIVE LINE EXTENDING FROM ECENTRAL GA INTO CENTRAL AL WILL MOVE SWD INTO SRN AL AND SRN GA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AHEAD OF WHERE A COLD POOL WAS INTENSIFYING...THE MOST ORGANIZED PORTION OF THE LINE WILL MOVE SWD FROM THE BHM AREA TOWARDS MGM THROUGH 00Z. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM 8.5-9 DEG C/KM AND MODERATE INSTABILITY AXIS WITH MLCAPES FROM 2000-2500 J/KG WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED ISOLATED SEVERE WIND THREAT. ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOPING OVER FAR SRN GA AND CENTRAL SC MAY ALSO POSE AN ISOLATED SEVERE WIND THREAT WHERE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR WET MICROBURSTS. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE WHEN MAIN SWD MOVING CONVECTIVE LINE INTERACTS WITH ONGOING STRONG STORMS IN THESE AREAS. ..CROSBIE.. 07/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB... 30988586 31118759 32578786 33138779 33388754 32878605 32728510 33408300 34468092 34147980 31728135 30928479 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 12 22:42:23 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 12 Jul 2004 17:42:23 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407122242.i6CMgh101644@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 122241 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122241 IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-130045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1635 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0541 PM CDT MON JUL 12 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SE SD...NE NEB...NW IA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 612... VALID 122241Z - 130045Z CONTINUE WW. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL NEBRASKA FOR POSSIBILITY OF INCREASING SEVERE THREAT. INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES...WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN COVERAGE... JUST EAST OF WEAK SURFACE LOW NEAR O'NEILL NEB. THIS IS BEING SUPPORTED BY STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME ASSOCIATED WITH VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW BEGINNING TO DIG ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. STRONGER LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS ALSO FOCUSED ACROSS THIS REGION...AND THIS SHOULD INCREASE ON NOSE OF NOCTURNALLY STRENGTHENING CENTRAL PLAINS SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET BY THE 02-03Z TIME FRAME. UNTIL UPSCALE EVOLUTION INTO MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OCCURS LATER THIS EVENING...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO...WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE IS NOW UP TO AROUND 4000 J/KG...AND DESPITE RELATIVE WEAK LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW...VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT BENEATH STRENGTHENING NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ARE CONTRIBUTING TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS ALSO BEEN APPARENT SOUTHWESTWARD FROM LOW ALONG LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS/SURFACE TROUGH INTO AREAS WEST OF BROKEN BOW/NORTHEAST OF NORTH PLATTE. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM MAY EVENTUALLY DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...ACTIVITY ACROSS THIS AREA SHOULD BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED DUE TO STRONG CAP...WHICH WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER WITH ONSET OF RADIATIONAL COOLING AROUND SUNSET. ..KERR.. 07/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF... 41360057 41769984 42099916 42509906 42989873 42959784 42679685 42289619 41839638 41579693 41549745 41539815 41309885 41039969 40990025 41130056 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 13 00:46:12 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 12 Jul 2004 19:46:12 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407130046.i6D0kX108423@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 130045 SWOMCD SPC MCD 130045 NEZ000-130245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1636 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0745 PM CDT MON JUL 12 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN NEB AND WRN IA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 613... VALID 130045Z - 130245Z CONTINUE WW. VERY LARGE INTENSE CELL CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DEVELOP SOUTHWARD ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA FED BY INFLOW OF EXTREMELY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH CAPE IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG. ACTIVITY SHOULD APPROACH THE GRAND ISLAND AREA BY 02Z...BUT MAY STALL JUST TO THE NORTH OF CITY...WHERE FORCING ON NOSE OF STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BECOME FOCUSED. THIS SOUTHERLY JET APPEARS LIKELY TO INCREASE TO AROUND 35 KT THIS EVENING...AND FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ABOVE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. MID-LEVEL INHIBITION EVIDENT IN 00Z SOUNDING FROM OMAHA IS A CONCERN...BUT EVOLUTION OF SEVERE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM STILL APPEARS POSSIBLE. SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE STRONG BENEATH MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW...AND THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT LOOKS SUPPORTIVE OF DOWNBURSTS AND EVOLUTION OF STRONG SURFACE COLD POOL NEAR/NORTH THROUGH NORTHEAST OF GRAND ISLAND THROUGH 02-04Z TIME FRAME. ..KERR.. 07/13/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF... 41939879 42119725 41919671 41409641 40799651 40819765 40869837 41259908 41729896 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 13 02:20:48 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 12 Jul 2004 21:20:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407130221.i6D2L7105198@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 130220 SWOMCD SPC MCD 130219 MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-130415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1637 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0919 PM CDT MON JUL 12 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SE ND/ERN SD/WRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 130219Z - 130415Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF INCREASING SEVERE THREAT. WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED WITHIN NEXT HOUR OR SO. SCATTERED NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. THIS APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING IN FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME...ON EASTERN PERIPHERY OF ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WHICH HAS ADVECTED OFF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS. INITIATION APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE DIGGING ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS...AND PROGGED TO CONTINUE TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVERNIGHT. GIVEN STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT...STRONGLY SHEARED CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LACK OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL JET AND FOCUS FOR LARGER-SCALE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER MAY LIMIT EXTENT OF SEVERE THREAT...HOWEVER. ..KERR.. 07/13/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...DMX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS... 46189769 47309634 47769582 48239336 47449253 44999333 42899360 42759576 43229735 43909927 44760074 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 13 04:20:20 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 12 Jul 2004 23:20:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407130420.i6D4Ki108200@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 130419 SWOMCD SPC MCD 130419 MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-130615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1638 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1119 PM CDT MON JUL 12 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN NEB/SW IA/NW MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 614...615... VALID 130419Z - 130615Z TORNADO WW 614 MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE. CONTINUE REMAINING VALID PORTION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WW 615. AREAS OF NORTHWEST MISSOURI TO THE SOUTHEAST OF 615 ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL WW. DUE TO BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING...INCREASING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION BENEATH MID-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE IS SUPPRESSING NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER...SOUTH OF THE GRAND ISLAND AREA. INHIBITION APPEARS WEAKER FROM THE MID INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...ALONG MOISTURE AXIS REFLECTED BY MID/UPPER 70S DEW POINTS IN LATEST SURFACE ANALYSES. THUS...CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY TO BE SLOWEST TO DIMINISH IN THE VICINITY OF THE RIVER BETWEEN OMAHA NEB AND ST. JOSEPH MO. WHILE VIGOROUS LEAD CELL...NOW OVER SOUTHWEST IOWA... MAY WEAKEN AS IT PROGRESSES INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI...NORTHEAST OF ST. JOSEPH...BY 05Z...NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE WITHIN NEXT FEW HOURS. 20 TO 25 KT LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS APPEARS LIKELY TO ENHANCE ISENTROPIC ASCENT ABOVE COLD POOL NEAR/SOUTH OF THE OMAHA AREA...WHERE CAPE REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS WITH LARGE HAIL. ..KERR.. 07/13/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID... 41699609 41439441 40509354 39889391 39719519 40009676 39979815 40389905 41019773 41639700 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 13 04:53:02 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 12 Jul 2004 23:53:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407130453.i6D4rM117457@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 130452 SWOMCD SPC MCD 130452 MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-130545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1639 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1152 PM CDT MON JUL 12 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SE SD...NW IA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 613... VALID 130452Z - 130545Z NEW SEVERE WW MAY BE NEEDED BY CURRENT 06Z EXPIRATION. WEAK NEW SURFACE LOW HAS DEVELOPED IN SURFACE TROUGH TO THE WEST OF SIOUX FALLS. THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER AREA TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. FAVORABLE LARGE-SCALE FORCING NEAR/EAST OF LOW HAS BECOME FOCUS FOR INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...AND SHOULD SLOWLY DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD WITH LOW OVERNIGHT. CONVECTION WILL BE SLOW TO PROGRESS OUT OF SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA/NORTHWEST IOWA...IN ENVIRONMENT WITH LARGE CAPE FOR PARCELS LIFTED ABOVE NEAR SURFACE INVERSION LAYER. ..KERR.. 07/13/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX... 43799730 44049614 43809532 43549496 42679560 42519591 42419618 42529667 42759747 43359773 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 13 08:36:23 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 13 Jul 2004 03:36:23 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407130836.i6D8af115930@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 130836 SWOMCD SPC MCD 130835 WIZ000-MNZ000-130930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1640 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0335 AM CDT TUE JUL 13 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL MN...NWRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 616...618... VALID 130835Z - 130930Z ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 616 WILL EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED... ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER WCNTRL MN WITHIN SUSTAINED WARM ADVECTION ZONE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SERN QUARTER OF THE WW...BUT NOT BEFORE THE WATCH EXPIRES. EVEN SO...MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED AT OR BELOW SEVERE LEVELS. UNLESS THIS CONVECTION INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY WW WILL NOT BE REISSUED. A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF CONVECTION HAS ALSO OCCURRED OVER NERN MN...JUST SOUTH OF THE DLH AREA. THIS ACTIVITY MAY STRUGGLE TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES EWD INTO A PROGRESSIVELY MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. ..DARROW.. 07/13/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF... 44949595 46199522 46339128 45209118 44349426 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 13 09:22:55 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 13 Jul 2004 04:22:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407130923.i6D9NA131344@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 130922 SWOMCD SPC MCD 130921 IAZ000-WIZ000-MNZ000-131015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1641 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0421 AM CDT TUE JUL 13 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MN...SWRN WI...ERN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 617... VALID 130921Z - 131015Z ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED DOWNSTREAM OF CURRENT WATCH... WLY LLJ APPEARS TO BE SHIFTING ACROSS IA TOWARD NWRN IL AS UPPER TROUGH DROPS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. THIS WILL UNDOUBTEDLY RESULT IN AN EWD SHIFT TO ONGOING ACTIVITY AS ASCENT DUE TO WARM ADVECTION SPREADS DOWNSTREAM. CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST MUCH OF THIS CONVECTION MAY REMAIN MARGINALLY SEVERE WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLATED WIND GUST/HAIL AS IT SPREADS OUT OF WW. ..DARROW.. 07/13/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX... 41339201 43559417 44029236 43509125 41869031 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 13 15:09:17 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 13 Jul 2004 10:09:17 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407131509.i6DF9Y129718@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 131509 SWOMCD SPC MCD 131508 MIZ000-WIZ000-131715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1642 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1008 AM CDT TUE JUL 13 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN WI....U.P. OF MI...NRN LOWER MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 131508Z - 131715Z POTENTIAL FOR STRONG AND SEVERE TSTMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN GREAT LAKES REGION BY AFTERNOON. WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED OVER PORTIONS OF WI AND MI. LATEST ANALYSIS PLACES COLD FRONT FROM WRN LS SWD ACROSS NWRN WI AND THEN SWWD ACROSS IA. A SMALL CLUSTER OF PREFRONTAL CONVECTION...AND ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW/COLD POOL...WAS TRACKING EAST TOWARD MIDDLE SECTIONS OF THE U.P. OF MI. WHILE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK...PRONOUNCED DIFFLUENCE WITHIN EXIT REGION OF 65-70KT MID LEVEL JET STREAK WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADING ATOP A STEADILY DESTABILIZING AIRMASS. EXPECT TSTM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TO INCREASE AS THIS PROCESS UNFOLDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ISOLD CELLS APPEAR TO BE STRENGTHENING ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER MARQUETTE AND DICKINSON COUNTIES IN THE U.P. OF MI...AS WELL AS THE OUTFLOW/FRONT INTERSECTION NEAR ONEIDA AND FOREST COUNTIES IN NRN WI. WITH SOME CAPPING LIKELY REMAINING ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS POINT...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THE ONGOING STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE...OR WHETHER ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL INITIATE ALONG THE FRONT IN ANOTHER FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...WATCHES CAN BE ANTICIPATED GIVEN STRENGTH OF FORCING...INSTABILITY... AND SHEAR OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. ..CARBIN.. 07/13/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...APX...MQT...GRB... 44338425 44298872 45568986 46598692 46598410 44888332 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 13 15:33:29 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 13 Jul 2004 10:33:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407131533.i6DFXk108145@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 131533 SWOMCD SPC MCD 131532 INZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-131730- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1643 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1032 AM CDT TUE JUL 13 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IA...NRN IL...NWRN IND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 131532Z - 131730Z RAPID TSTM DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED OVER NWRN IL OVER THE LAST HALF HOUR WITH AN ISOLD SUPERCELL LOCATED OVER JO DAVIESS COUNTY. VOLATILE ENVIRONMENT FROM ERN IA INTO NRN IL AND NWRN IND SUGGESTS A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED SHORTLY. ACTIVITY APPEARS TO HAVE INITIATED ALONG WEAK PREFRONTAL CONFLUENCE AXIS WHICH RUNS FROM ERN IA INTO NWRN IL AND SRN WI. IN ADDITION SMALL SCALE MCV WAS MOVING EAST ACROSS IA IN THE WAKE OF LATE DAY CONVECTION ON MONDAY. THESE FACTORS COUPLED WITH CONTINUING AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION ALONG AND EAST OF THE COLD FRONT WILL INCREASINGLY SUPPORT FURTHER VIGOROUS TSTM DEVELOPMENT INTO THE AFTERNOON. DVN VWP DATA WAS SHOWING STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR THROUGH THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE AND SRH VALUES SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES. WATCHES WILL BE NEEDED SHORTLY. ..CARBIN.. 07/13/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IND...LOT...ILX...DVN...ARX... 40918965 41459212 42779163 41358706 40218739 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 13 18:19:43 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 13 Jul 2004 13:19:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407131820.i6DIK0120982@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 131819 SWOMCD SPC MCD 131819 WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-132015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1644 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0119 PM CDT TUE JUL 13 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 131819Z - 132015Z TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST ACROSS PARTS OF SRN AND SERN WI LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS TORNADOES. A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE REGION IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS AND VERY MOIST AIRMASS HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG TO LOCALLY EXTREME INSTABILITY ACROSS SRN WI THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST MODEL AND OBSERVED SOUNDING DATA WERE INDICATING MLCAPE VALUES AS HIGH AS 3500 J/KG THUS SETTING THE STAGE FOR INTENSE AND POTENTIALLY EXPLOSIVE TSTM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CURRENTLY... MODEST COLD FRONT ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG LOW THROUGH MID LEVEL WLY FLOW WAS TRACKING ESE ACROSS PARTS OF WCNTRL WI. IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT...A WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS WAS ANALYZED IN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS BISECTING SRN WI FROM SW TO NE. ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO OF HEATING COUPLED WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT SHOULD PROMOTE VIGOROUS TSTM DEVELOPMENT. PRIMARILY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS TORNADOES. ACTIVITY MAY THEN TEND TO LINE UP ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT LATER TODAY WITH WIND THREAT SPREADING EAST ACROSS SRN LM. ..CARBIN.. 07/13/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DVN...ARX... 42518782 42509064 43249096 44228976 44148742 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 13 18:39:33 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 13 Jul 2004 13:39:33 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407131839.i6DIdo130839@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 131839 SWOMCD SPC MCD 131839 ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-131945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1645 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0139 PM CDT TUE JUL 13 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN IL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 619... VALID 131839Z - 131945Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING ON THE OUTFLOW FROM THE INTENSE TORNADIC SUPERCELL NOW MOVING SEWD THRU LA SALLE COUNTY. THESE NEW STORMS IN SRN LEE AND NRN BUREAU COUNTY ARE IN A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO BECOME POTENTIALLY TORNADIC SUPERCELLS AS WELL. THE AIR MASS FEEDING THE STORMS FROM THE WEST IS EXTREMELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG ALONG WITH 30-40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. ..HALES.. 07/13/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX... 40348763 40329074 42549185 42558848 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 13 19:11:41 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 13 Jul 2004 14:11:41 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407131911.i6DJBw112365@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 131910 SWOMCD SPC MCD 131910 MIZ000-WIZ000-132115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1646 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0210 PM CDT TUE JUL 13 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN WI AND U.P. OF MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 620... VALID 131910Z - 132115Z COLD FRONT NOW ENTERING WRN EDGE OF WW 620 WITH VERY FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FOR STRONG ASCENT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. NUMEROUS CELLULAR STORMS ARE INCREASINGLY RAPIDLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AN AXIS OF GREATER PREFRONTAL INSTABILITY WAS SITUATED FROM GRB AREA NNEWD INTO THE U.P. OF MI. ENVIRONMENT WITHIN THIS AXIS WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY BE ENHANCED AS CELLS APPROACH THE WRN SHORE OF GREEN BAY WHERE WEAK LOW LEVEL SELY FLOW WAS RESULTING IN GREATER 0-1KM SRH IN THE 100-150 M2/S2 RANGE. ..CARBIN.. 07/13/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...APX...GRR...MQT...GRB...ARX... 44098587 44079028 46428764 46428300 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 13 19:31:36 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 13 Jul 2004 14:31:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407131931.i6DJVs121660@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 131931 SWOMCD SPC MCD 131930 INZ000-ILZ000-132130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1647 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0230 PM CDT TUE JUL 13 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IL AND WRN/CNTRL IND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 131930Z - 132130Z TSTM POTENTIAL INCREASINGLY RAPIDLY ALONG INTENSE INSTABILITY GRADIENT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. A WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY TO REPLACE TORNADO WATCH 619 AND EXTEND ACROSS PARTS OF ERN IL AND CNTRL IND. CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE INCREASING IN COVERAGE ON THE NOSE OF DIFFLUENT MID LEVEL JET STREAK DEVELOPING SEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY. EXTREME INSTABILITY FEEDING INTO THE REGION OF FAVORABLE ASCENT WILL FUEL VIGOROUS TSTMS INTO THE EVENING. SUPERCELLULAR ACTIVITY NOW MOVING SEWD FROM NRN IL WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS TORNADOES. FARTHER EAST...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE CURRENTLY WEAKER...BUT SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE MID LEVEL WIND MAX AND UPPER TROUGH DIG SEWD TOWARD THE MIDWEST. IL STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY MERGE INTO A SEVERE MCS WITH WIND AND HAIL THREAT SPREADING SSEWD ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT AND INTO SRN PARTS OF IND BY EVENING. ..CARBIN.. 07/13/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX... 40808755 41098587 39298538 38758838 40558887 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 13 20:28:24 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 13 Jul 2004 15:28:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407132028.i6DKSs116669@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 132028 SWOMCD SPC MCD 132027 NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-132300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1648 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0327 PM CDT TUE JUL 13 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN CO...SW NEB...SE WY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 132027Z - 132300Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS NERN CO...SW NEB...AND SE WY. A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE REGION WITHIN 2 HOURS. AIRMASS IS BECOMING VERY UNSTABLE ACROSS THE REGION AS MLCAPE VALUES EXCEED 2500 J/KG FROM THE SOUTHERN NEB PANHANDLE SOUTHEASTWARD TO SW NEB. THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE INITIATED ON THE LARAMIE MOUNTAINS...AND ADDITIONAL CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THESE STORMS...WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION. GIVEN THE VERY TO EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES APPROACHING 30 KNOTS...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THIS ENVIRONMENT ARE LIKELY TO RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. ..LEVIT.. 07/13/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS... 42360490 41690533 40870488 40180271 40080117 40390035 40820019 41440075 42000199 42260325 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 13 21:51:28 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 13 Jul 2004 16:51:28 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407132151.i6DLpi121604@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 132151 SWOMCD SPC MCD 132150 SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-132345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1649 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0450 PM CDT TUE JUL 13 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN WY...SERN MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 132150Z - 132345Z ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST WY DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. VISIBLE SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BIG HORN MTNS IN SHERIDAN/JOHNSON COUNTIES WY. THIS AREA IS BENEATH FLAT UPPER RIDGE AXIS...BUT WITHIN MODERATELY STRONG WESTERLY MID LEVEL WINDS /30-35 KNOTS AT 500MB/. SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS IN THIS REGION AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW/MID 50S ARE PROVIDING A FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC AND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR ORGANIZED/SUPERCELL STORMS. AREAL COVERAGE AND EASTWARD EXTENT OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THIS AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AND POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE. ..HART.. 07/13/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW... 44530713 45350690 45430536 45190465 44810413 43830405 43080434 43210627 43540693 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 13 22:02:40 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 13 Jul 2004 17:02:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407132202.i6DM2u126097@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 132201 SWOMCD SPC MCD 132200 KYZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-140000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1650 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0500 PM CDT TUE JUL 13 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IL...SRN IN...NRN AND CNTRL KY CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 623... VALID 132200Z - 140000Z NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. DAMAGING WIND THREAT IS INCREASING. COLD POOLS GENERATED BY EARLIER SUPERCELLS HAVE MERGED INTO LARGE STRONG COLD POOL...WEST OF INDIANAPOLIS INTO AREAS NORTHEAST OF SPRINGFIELD IL. THIS FEATURE IS SURGING SOUTHEASTWARD AT AROUND 40 KT...AND WILL LIKELY BE MAINTAINED AS STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION FIELD/ZONE OF STEEPER ISENTROPIC ASCENT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT INTENSE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN. MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE IN SOURCE REGION FOR PARCELS COMPRISING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IS VERY LARGE...IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG...AND RISK OF LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE IN STRONGER UPDRAFTS. HOWEVER...PRIMARY THREAT NOW APPEARS TO BE BROADER SCALE DAMAGING WIND EVENT ASSOCIATED WITH GUST FRONT...WHICH WILL SURGE THROUGH THE LOUISVILLE KY AREA BY 14/00Z. VERY STRONG NORTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER JET...100+ KT AT 250 MB ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING SHORT WAVE TROUGH...IS PROGGED TO NOSE INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING. THIS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO ACCELERATION OF MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...SUPPORTING RISK OF VERY STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 65 KT ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS EVENING. ..KERR.. 07/13/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX... 39458599 39588554 39188486 38758411 38438360 38168321 37328342 36918485 37128587 37598720 37848806 38318898 38828940 39408978 39918991 39958914 39418812 39188732 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 13 22:56:50 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 13 Jul 2004 17:56:50 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407132257.i6DMvJ113856@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 132256 SWOMCD SPC MCD 132255 NMZ000-AZZ000-140100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1651 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0555 PM CDT TUE JUL 13 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/CNTRL AZ/SWRN NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 132255Z - 140100Z ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS HAVE TAKEN SOME TIME IN DEVELOPING THIS AFTN...BUT RECENT SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW INTENSIFYING STORMS ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM...AS WELL AS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SE AZ. MODIFYING THE 18Z OBSERVED TUCSON SOUNDING WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS OF 100/61 YIELDS MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 2500-3000 J/KG. TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE ON THE ORDER OF 35-45 DEGREES COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AROUND 8.0 C/KM...SO STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH A FEW STORMS. IN ADDITION...MIDLEVEL ELY FLOW OF AROUND 20 KT ALSO NOTED ON SOUNDING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SOME HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR MIXING DOWN TO THE SFC COMBINED WITH ACCELERATION OF DOWNBURST WINDS. 18Z AND OBSERVED FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE AROUND 1-1.5 INCHES IN SOME CASES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SRN AZ. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH SLOW MOVING STORMS. HIGHER DEWPOINTS NEAR 60 MAY HELP STORMS MOVE INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS INCLUDING THE PHOENIX METRO...SO A WW MAY BE NEEDED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ..TAYLOR.. 07/13/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...TWC...FGZ...PSR... 31391072 32631300 35451322 36061181 35380914 33900798 32430770 31850831 31330827 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 13 23:09:17 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 13 Jul 2004 18:09:17 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407132309.i6DN9X118033@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 132309 SWOMCD SPC MCD 132308 MIZ000-140115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1652 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0608 PM CDT TUE JUL 13 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...LWR MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 622... VALID 132308Z - 140115Z CONTINUE REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW. FORCING IN EXIT REGION OF STRONG MID/UPPER JET...60+ KT AT 500 MB/90-100 KT AT 250 MB...APPEARS TO BE PROVIDING PRIMARY SUPPORT FOR VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE BAND NOW SPREADING INTO WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS IS PROGGED TO OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH THE 03-04Z TIME FRAME...AND WILL MAINTAIN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN MOIST...WEAKLY CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN...WITH CAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG... ONGOING STORMS SHOULD INTENSIFY. THOUGH WIND FIELDS/SHEAR PROFILES IN EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET ARE RATHER MODERATE...THERMODYNAMIC STRUCTURE APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF MORE ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE AS EVAPORATIVE COOLING NEAR HEAVY RAIN CONTRIBUTES TO SURFACE COLD POOL AND ASSOCIATED GUST FRONT. THUS...RISK FOR MORE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY INCREASE...AND POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS. ..KERR.. 07/13/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR... 42208317 41958486 41968577 42578591 43268580 44148507 44898434 45518433 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 13 23:35:01 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 13 Jul 2004 18:35:01 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407132335.i6DNZG125993@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 132334 SWOMCD SPC MCD 132334 MOZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-140130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1653 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0634 PM CDT TUE JUL 13 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CNTRL MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 132334Z - 140130Z ...AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A WW... CONVECTIVE CLUSTER N/NE OF KANSAS CITY IS MOVING INTO AN AIRMASS WHICH IS EXTREMELY UNSTABLE...CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE VALUES OF 3500-4000+ J/KG. CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS RELATIVELY WEAK AND WITH MODERATE NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SE AROUND 20 KT. LATEST WV IMAGERY SUGGESTS SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA NOW...SO THIS WILL ONLY HELP ONGOING CONVECTION SUSTAIN ITSELF. TSTM NEAR STJ HAS INTENSIFIED RECENTLY...AND GIVEN SIMILAR TRENDS...A WW MAY BE NEEDED SHORTLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN/CNTRL MO. ..TAYLOR.. 07/13/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX... 37189121 38619459 40049532 40589383 40479145 38939076 37658993 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 14 00:15:46 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 13 Jul 2004 19:15:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407140016.i6E0G1106303@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 140015 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140015 NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-140145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1654 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0715 PM CDT TUE JUL 13 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN WY/WRN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 624... VALID 140015Z - 140145Z LATEST MESOANALYSIS PLACES FRONT N OF A CASPER/CHEYENNE/MCCOOK LINE. STORMS ON THE N SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY ARE STRUGGLING DESPITE THE FACT THEY ARE DEVELOPING IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 3000 J/KG. STORMS ARE FORMING ON THE NRN EDGE OF THE RIDGE AXIS...AND PERHAPS ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE IS INHIBITING THEM. ALSO...00Z LBF SOUNDING STILL SHOWS SOME AMOUNT OF CAPPING WITH WARM LAYER AROUND 750MB. IF STORMS COULD BECOME ORGANIZED...RECENT PROFILER DATA FROM MEDICINE BOW SHOW AROUND 40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. ..TAYLOR.. 07/14/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...BOU...CYS... 40520125 40910575 43120578 42650133 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 14 00:37:52 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 13 Jul 2004 19:37:52 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407140038.i6E0c8113669@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 140037 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140036 VAZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-140230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1655 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0736 PM CDT TUE JUL 13 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...KY...TN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 623...625... VALID 140036Z - 140230Z REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 623 WILL BE CANCELLED SHORTLY. CONTINUE REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 625. NEW WW WILL BE NEEDED ACROSS MUCH OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE AS DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. LARGE SEVERE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO EVOLVE ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...WITH ASSOCIATED STRONG SURFACE COLD POOL/ MESO HIGH NOW SURGING SOUTH OF THE EVANSVILLE/LOUISVILLE AREAS INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY AT AROUND 40 KT. AT THIS RATE...GUST FRONT LIKELY WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE BORDER INTO THE NASHVILLE AREA DURING THE 02-03Z TIME FRAME. ALTHOUGH SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEGUN TO DROP OFF A BIT FROM PEAK HEATING AHEAD OF CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...STRUCTURE OF THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WITH DRY MID-LEVELS/STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WARM MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN QUITE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG GUST FRONT DEEP INTO THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY. WEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME INTO WESTERN FLANK OF COLD POOL WILL MAINTAIN FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...AND CAPE OF 2000 TO 4000 J/KG WITH HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR WILL FAVOR INTENSE UPDRAFTS WITH SOME HAIL...AND LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAIN TOTALS IN TRAINING CELLS. ..KERR.. 07/14/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG... 38538826 37718727 37408628 37998564 38458495 38668447 38508386 37688321 36628362 36078416 35628512 35298612 35418705 35848812 36718824 38458871 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 14 02:52:18 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 13 Jul 2004 21:52:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407140252.i6E2qX119990@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 140251 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140251 SDZ000-NEZ000-WYZ000-140415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1657 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0951 PM CDT TUE JUL 13 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN WY/SW SD/WRN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 624... VALID 140251Z - 140415Z WW 624 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 03Z. ALTHOUGH ISOLD SEVERE THREAT MAY PERSIST...PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT ADDITIONAL WW WILL NOT BE NEEDED NE/E OF WW 624. UPSLOPE REGIME CONTINUES TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE WRN HIGH PLAINS OF WY INTO SW SD/NRN NEB PANHANDLE. STRONGEST ACTIVITY REMAINS ON NRN PERIPHERY OF WW 624 EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH MODEST E/SE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BENEATH 30 KT MID LEVEL WLY FLOW SUPPORTING ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS ALONG NRN EDGE OF INSTABILITY AXIS. ALTHOUGH FORWARD PROPAGATION OF TSTM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SW SD/NEB PANHANDLE THIS EVENING OWING TO UPSLOPE/STRONGLY SHEARED REGIME...BARRING ORGANIZED COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT...THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS OWING TO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ..GUYER.. 07/14/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS... 42800461 44350481 44740421 44730321 44410111 42930057 41840083 42150281 42230403 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 14 03:22:35 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 13 Jul 2004 22:22:35 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407140322.i6E3Mo129173@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 140322 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140321 TNZ000-VAZ000-KYZ000-NCZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-140515- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1658 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1021 PM CDT TUE JUL 13 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SE KY...TN..NRN AL...NRN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 625...627... VALID 140321Z - 140515Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED. NEW WW MAY NOT BE NEEDED SOUTH OF WW 627. OTHERWISE...CONTINUE REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 625 AND 627. STRONG SURFACE COLD POOL/MESO HIGH CONTINUES TO SURGE SOUTHWARD ACROSS MIDDLE/EASTERN TENNESSEE. IN SLIGHTLY COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG GUST FRONT AND ABOVE COLD POOL HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN...AND THESE TRENDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS SYSTEM PROGRESSES SOUTH OF LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS INTO THE NORTHERN GULF STATES...WHERE LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT AS STEEP/CAPE NOT AS STRONG. AS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...SURFACE COLD POOL WILL EVENTUALLY FOLLOW SUITE...AND POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY WILL DECREASE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE STILL LIKELY ALONG LEADING EDGE OF OUTFLOW ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS...POSSIBLY INTO THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR BETWEEN ATLANTA/BIRMINGHAM BY 06Z. THREAT APPEARS MUCH LOWER IN COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER AFFECTED BY AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH OF I-20. ..KERR.. 07/14/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...PAH...MEG... 36488788 35818701 35458628 35598502 36008452 36478433 36868412 37348354 36808305 36528261 35668342 34848400 34278441 33848512 33798659 34328741 35348756 36188828 36788853 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 14 04:14:42 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 13 Jul 2004 23:14:42 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407140415.i6E4F4112349@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 140414 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140413 TNZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-140615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1659 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1113 PM CDT TUE JUL 13 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF LWR OH/TN VLYS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 140413Z - 140615Z CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF INCREASING SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...AT THE PRESENT TIME...NEW WWS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. VERY STRONG MID/UPPER JET STREAK CONTINUES TO DIG FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. AS SOUTHEASTWARD PROPAGATION CONTINUES INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN ON SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF LOWER GREAT LAKES LOW ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS. AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT...THIS HAS ALREADY SUPPORTED INCREASING SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...ON EASTERN PERIPHERY LOWER MID TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL RIDGE EXTENDING EAST SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE NORTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THIS IS ON WESTERN EDGE OF ENVIRONMENT AFFECTED BY LARGE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM NOW WEAKENING AS IT SPREADS INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS/NORTHERN GULF STATES. WHILE OVERTURNING ASSOCIATED WITH PRIOR CONVECTION APPEARS LIKELY TO MARGINALIZE ADDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT OVERNIGHT...SCATTERED STRONG STORMS WITH SOME HAIL APPEAR LIKELY TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING. NEWEST AND STRONGEST DEVELOPMENT THROUGH 08-09Z APPEARS LIKELY TO OCCUR FROM PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN ILLINOIS ACROSS WESTERN KENTUCKY INTO WESTERN/MIDDLE TENNESSEE...IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ..KERR.. 07/14/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...LMK...IWX...OHX...IND...HUN...PAH...LOT...ILX...MEG...LSX... 38748932 40088807 41038624 40818479 39548623 37988681 37098606 35618376 35138756 35988900 37548969 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 14 04:53:44 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 13 Jul 2004 23:53:44 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407140453.i6E4rx124268@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 140453 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140452 NEZ000-SDZ000-140615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1660 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1152 PM CDT TUE JUL 13 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NCNTRL NEB/FAR SRN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 140452Z - 140615Z ORGANIZING COLD POOL MAY SUPPORT MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT ACROSS NCNTRL NEB/FAR SRN SD INTO THE OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH NOT ANTICIPATED...TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. 0352Z SFC OB AT IEN /PINE RIDGE SD/ SAMPLED WLY GUSTS TO 37KTS IN WAKE OF CONVECTIVE CLUSTER ACROSS FAR NW NEB. LATEST /04Z/ SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS SEMI-ORGANIZED COLD POOL HAS DEVELOPED INVOF SW SD/NW NEB BORDER...WITH FORWARD PROPAGATION OF CONVECTIVE CLUSTER/COLD POOL EXPECTED TO CONTINUE E/SE AT 30-35 KTS ALONG NRN PERIPHERY OF INSTABILITY AXIS. SCENARIO MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR MARGINAL SEVERE INTO NCNTRL NEB/FAR SCNTRL SD INTO THE OVERNIGHT. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES /IN EXCESS OF 8.0 C/KM PER 00Z LBF SOUNDING/ WOULD SUGGEST SEVERE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS. ALTHOUGH MARGINALLY SEVERE GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE...SURFACE BASED INHIBITION WILL TEND TO BE PROHIBITIVE FACTOR FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS REACHING THE SFC. ..GUYER.. 07/14/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...UNR... 43310160 43269928 42799810 41499832 41449943 41670140 42110220 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 14 10:18:28 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 14 Jul 2004 05:18:28 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407141018.i6EAIn115572@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 141018 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141017 TNZ000-KYZ000-141115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1661 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0517 AM CDT WED JUL 14 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN KY...TN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 141017Z - 141115Z ...WW NOT ANTICIPATED FOR INCREASING CONVECTION OVER KY/NRN TN... PERSISTENT NWLY WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPEARS TO BE AIDING RECENT INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORMS ATOP CONVECTIVE COLD BUBBLE HIGH. OF SOME CONCERN IS THE ARCING MCS-TYPE STRUCTURE THAT HAS EVOLVED FROM OHIO COUNTY KY...SWWD INTO LYON COUNTY KY. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE SPREADING SEWD ALONG APPARENT PREDISPOSED CONVECTIVE ZONE...PER ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING INTO NRN TN WELL AHEAD OF MORE ORGANIZED COMPLEX. GIVEN THE ELEVATED NATURE OF THIS ACTIVITY IT APPEARS THE DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL MAY BE LIMITED WITH THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT LIKELY MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. ..DARROW.. 07/14/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX... 37378619 36248400 35548439 35778567 36478724 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 14 12:36:09 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 14 Jul 2004 07:36:09 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407141236.i6ECaN123042@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 141235 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141235 NCZ000-SCZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-141400- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1662 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0735 AM CDT WED JUL 14 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TN...WRN NC...NRN SC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 141235Z - 141400Z ...THUNDERSTORMS MAY INCREASE IN INTENSITY LATER THIS MORNING ACROSS THE WRN CAROLINAS... LONG LIVED COMPACT ELEVATED MCS CONTINUES ITS SEWD MOVEMENT ACROSS NRN TN TOWARD THE WRN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS SUFFICIENTLY ORGANIZED TO WITHSTAND CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION TOWARD A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS THAT EVENTUALLY ROOTS IN BOUNDARY LAYER BY LATE MORNING. STRONG SUNSHINE AHEAD OF THIS CLUSTER SUGGESTS STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL AID INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION. WW MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS MORNING TO INCLUDE AREAS DOWNSTREAM ACROSS WRN CAROLINAS. ..DARROW.. 07/14/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RNK...GSP...MRX...OHX... 36558421 36338282 36078162 35338150 34848237 35258455 35848511 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 14 16:07:25 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 14 Jul 2004 11:07:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407141607.i6EG7a109466@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 141606 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141606 PAZ000-MDZ000-141830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1663 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1106 AM CDT WED JUL 14 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL PA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 141606Z - 141830Z ISOLD TO WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL/WRN PA OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS. OVERALL ORGANIZED STORM COVERAGE IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT BASED ON SOMEWHAT MARGINAL SHEAR. HOWEVER...A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED OVER PARTS OF THE AREA. NARROW WARM SECTOR WAS DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL PA WITH LATEST MLCAPE ESTIMATED AROUND 1000 J/KG. MEANWHILE...UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WERE MAKING STEADY EWD PROGRESS ACROSS WRN PA WITH A TRAILING WIND SHIFT/CONVERGENCE AXIS EXTENDING FROM NERN OH INTO NWRN PA. TSTMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING ALONG THE POST FRONTAL WIND SHIFT LINE ACROSS NWRN PA OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS WITH VIL/REFLECTIVITY VALUES SLOWLY INCREASING. GIVEN MOIST AIRMASS AND MODEST INSTABILITY IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG LARGE SCALE FORCING AND SOMEWHAT MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 25-30KT...SITUATION APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW SUPERCELLS OR ORGANIZED MULTICELL STORMS. THIS POTENTIAL SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH A FEW HAIL AND/OR WIND REPORTS POSSIBLE. STORMS DEVELOPING EWD AND CROSSING THE WARM FRONT MAY ENCOUNTER MORE ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND ACQUIRE SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS. IF WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL BECOMES MORE CERTAIN...A WATCH WOULD BE NEEDED. ..CARBIN.. 07/14/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...PBZ... 39757928 40187976 40508022 40918050 41557969 41787925 41907880 41977830 41847729 41407647 40507607 39887617 39747700 39717841 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 14 16:20:14 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 14 Jul 2004 11:20:14 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407141620.i6EGKP115842@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 141619 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141618 MDZ000-VAZ000-PAZ000-WVZ000-NCZ000-141815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1664 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1118 AM CDT WED JUL 14 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...VA...ERN WV PNHDL...NRN MD...DC...NRN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 141618Z - 141815Z WATCHES WILL BE NEEDED SHORTLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND INTENSIFYING SHEAR PARAMETERS... COUPLED WITH STRONG LARGE SCALE FORCING FROM APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT...EXPECTED TO RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF VA/MD/DE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. INITIAL ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY BECOME SUPERCELLULAR AND POSE A THREAT OF HAIL AND ISOLD TORNADOES. CONVECTION SHOULD EVOLVE INTO LINE SEGMENTS ALONG THE FRONT AND AHEAD OF 50KT MID LEVEL WIND MAX AND SPREAD EAST WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS. ..CARBIN.. 07/14/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RAH...RNK... 36468133 36968122 37827973 38797894 39777849 39777782 38907728 38457718 38027717 37247739 36077964 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 14 16:20:14 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 14 Jul 2004 11:20:14 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407141620.i6EGKP115842@mail.goshen.edu> <<< No Message Collected >>> From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 14 17:05:55 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 14 Jul 2004 12:05:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407141706.i6EH68104620@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 141703 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141703 TNZ000-KYZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-141900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1665 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1203 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN KY...EXTREME SWRN VA...WRN NC...TN....NRN PORTIONS OF MS/AL/GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 141703Z - 141900Z TSTMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG AND PERHAPS BEHIND COLD FRONT SETTLING SEWD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WATCHES MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE REGION SHORTLY. WEAKLY CONVERGENT COLD FRONT WAS SETTLING SWD ACROSS WRN AND MIDDLE TN AND THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LIFT ALONG THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE MAINTAINED BY BROADLY DIFFLUENT MID LEVEL FLOW IN THE WAKE OF STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE OH VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGIONS. VERY STRONG INSTABILITY WILL FUEL INTENSE TSTM UPDRAFTS WITHIN DEEP NWLY FLOW REGIME. OBSERVED AND FORECAST SHEAR PARAMETERS WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS AND/OR BOWING LINE SEGMENTS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL POSSIBLE. ..CARBIN.. 07/14/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...PAH...MEG... 36168248 34688383 34188540 34898977 35548978 36438928 36908877 36798584 37258248  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 14 19:06:32 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 14 Jul 2004 14:06:32 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407141906.i6EJ6p126183@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 141906 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141905 NJZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-142100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1666 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0205 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN/SERN VA...ERN MD...DC...DE...SRN NJ CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 630... VALID 141905Z - 142100Z NUMEROUS SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE DC METRO AREA AND NRN CHESAPEAKE BAY AT THIS TIME. ENVIRONMENT EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES. TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY BE MAXIMIZED ALONG WARM FRONT MOVING ACROSS NRN CHESAPEAKE BAY AND THE DELMARVA PENINSULA AT THIS TIME. WITH COLD FRONT WILL WELL WEST OF THE AREA AND ABUNDANT UNTAPPED INSTABILITY RESIDING ACROSS CNTRL AND SERN VA...ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS IN LINES AND CLUSTERS SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THESE AREAS AS COLD FRONT MOVES EAST THROUGH LATE TODAY. ..CARBIN.. 07/14/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RNK... 36597606 36587943 39637785 39617431 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 14 19:18:04 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 14 Jul 2004 14:18:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407141918.i6EJIH131857@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 141917 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141916 NYZ000-PAZ000-142045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1667 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0216 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...S CNTRL NY CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 141916Z - 142045Z A MARGINAL SEVERE WIND THREAT IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS OVER PORTIONS OF S CNTRL NY. LEADING EDGE OF SQUALL LINE EXTENDS FROM ITH TO BGM AND IS MOVING EAST NORTHEAST AROUND 35 KTS. STORMS ARE MOVING OUT OF INSTABILITY AXIS INTO MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE VALUES AOB 500 J/KG. RECENT RADAR VELOCITY IMAGERY INDICATES AROUND 35 KTS OF FLOW WHICH WILL POSE A MARGINAL WIND THREAT. HOWEVER...SFC PRESSURE FALLS AHEAD OF THE LINE REFLECT THE LARGE SCALE LIFT ACROSS THE AREA. ADDITIONALLY...BGM VAD PROFILE SHOWS AROUND 35-40 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SO LINE WILL LIKELY REMAIN ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES EASTWARD. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ..LEVIT/TAYLOR.. 07/14/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM... 42867630 42547648 42047648 41597642 41517608 41517560 41497485 41867451 42417444 42857467 43077529 43047587 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 14 19:41:26 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 14 Jul 2004 14:41:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407141941.i6EJfd109064@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 141941 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141940 NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-142115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1668 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0240 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN PA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 631... VALID 141940Z - 142115Z INTENSE SUPERCELL STORM MOVING FROM ERN LEBANON INTO BRKS COUNTY IN SERN PA HAS HISTORY OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS CELL APPEARS TO BE INVOF WARM FRONTAL ZONE WHERE LOW LFC AND ENHANCED 0-1KM SRH WERE RESULTING IN VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY OVER YORK AND LANCASTER COUNTIES OF SERN PA MAY ALSO TRACK ACROSS OR ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND POSE A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS OR BRIEF TORNADOES. ALL THE ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST TOWARD THE DELAWARE RIVER OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS. ..CARBIN.. 07/14/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...CTP... 39797564 39787901 41507796 41477451 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 14 20:37:08 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 14 Jul 2004 15:37:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407142037.i6EKbQ100721@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 142036 SWOMCD SPC MCD 142036 AZZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-142200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1669 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0336 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NW AZ...SE NV CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 142036Z - 142200Z SOME PULSING STRONG STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN NW AZ OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. MONSOONAL MOISTURE HAS BEEN FLOWING INTO THE AREA WITH DEWPOINTS RAPIDLY INCREASING INTO THE 60S F AT LAS...AND MID 50S TO LOW 60S NOTED IN NW AZ. MLCAPE VALUES IN THE REGION ARE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG AND STORMS THAT INITIATE ALONG TERRAIN FEATURES WILL BECOME STRONG IN THIS ENVIRONMENT. GIVEN LARGE SURFACE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS...A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ADDITIONALLY...STEEP LAPSE RATES AS INDICATED ON 18Z FGZ SOUNDING SUGGEST A MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL THREAT. ..LEVIT.. 07/14/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGZ...VEF... 35321501 35121353 34891240 35061106 35931121 36821158 36961244 36981411 37311494 36311635 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 14 20:45:07 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 14 Jul 2004 15:45:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407142045.i6EKjM104635@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 142044 SWOMCD SPC MCD 142044 TNZ000-NCZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-142215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1670 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0344 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN TN/NRN AL/NRN MS/NWRN GA/NERN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 632... VALID 142044Z - 142215Z ...MAIN THREAT FROM STORMS WILL BE FROM LARGE HAIL BUT A WIND THREAT IS DEVELOPING... CLUSTER OF SUPERCELLS CONTINUES TO MOVE SEWD AROUND 30-35 KT INTO VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 3500 J/KG. MOST OF THE RECENT SEVERE REPORTS HAVE BEEN LARGE HAIL...BUT A WIND THREAT COULD DEVELOP WITH TIME. IMPRESSIVE SFC PRESSURE FALLS OF 3-4MB/2HR ARE NOTED IN NRN AL...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW STORMS TO DEVELOP SWD. RECENT VWP DATA FROM AREA RADARS SHOWS AROUND 25-30 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WHICH IS SUPPORTING THE SUPERCELL ENVIRONMENT. A DAMAGING WIND THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP WITH TIME AS DEEPENING COLD POOL SPREADS INTO AIRMASS WITH RELATIVELY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ADDITIONAL WW HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED ACROSS PORTIONS OF AL/GA/SC. ..TAYLOR.. 07/14/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG... 34148422 34739099 36419091 35888417 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 14 20:48:25 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 14 Jul 2004 15:48:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407142048.i6EKmi106112@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 142036 SWOMCD SPC MCD 142036 AZZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-142200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1669 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0336 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NW AZ...SE NV CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 142036Z - 142200Z SOME PULSING STRONG STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN NW AZ OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. MONSOONAL MOISTURE HAS BEEN FLOWING INTO THE AREA WITH DEWPOINTS RAPIDLY INCREASING INTO THE 60S F AT LAS...AND MID 50S TO LOW 60S NOTED IN NW AZ. MLCAPE VALUES IN THE REGION ARE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG AND STORMS THAT INITIATE ALONG TERRAIN FEATURES WILL BECOME STRONG IN THIS ENVIRONMENT. GIVEN LARGE SURFACE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS...A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ADDITIONALLY...STEEP LAPSE RATES AS INDICATED ON 18Z FGZ SOUNDING SUGGEST A MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL THREAT. ..LEVIT.. 07/14/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGZ...VEF... 35321501 35121353 34891240 35061106 35931121 36821158 36961244 36981411 37311494 36311635  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 14 20:55:05 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 14 Jul 2004 15:55:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407142055.i6EKtI109384@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 142044 SWOMCD SPC MCD 142044 TNZ000-NCZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-142215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1670 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0344 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN TN/NRN AL/NRN MS/NWRN GA/NERN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 632... VALID 142044Z - 142215Z ...MAIN THREAT FROM STORMS WILL BE FROM LARGE HAIL BUT A WIND THREAT IS DEVELOPING... CLUSTER OF SUPERCELLS CONTINUES TO MOVE SEWD AROUND 30-35 KT INTO VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 3500 J/KG. MOST OF THE RECENT SEVERE REPORTS HAVE BEEN LARGE HAIL...BUT A WIND THREAT COULD DEVELOP WITH TIME. IMPRESSIVE SFC PRESSURE FALLS OF 3-4MB/2HR ARE NOTED IN NRN AL...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW STORMS TO DEVELOP SWD. RECENT VWP DATA FROM AREA RADARS SHOWS AROUND 25-30 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WHICH IS SUPPORTING THE SUPERCELL ENVIRONMENT. A DAMAGING WIND THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP WITH TIME AS DEEPENING COLD POOL SPREADS INTO AIRMASS WITH RELATIVELY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ADDITIONAL WW HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED ACROSS PORTIONS OF AL/GA/SC. ..TAYLOR.. 07/14/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG... 34148422 34739099 36419091 35888417  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 14 21:54:50 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 14 Jul 2004 16:54:50 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407142155.i6ELt4102266@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 142154 SWOMCD SPC MCD 142153 SDZ000-NEZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-150000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1671 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0453 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN SD/ERN WY/WRN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 142153Z - 150000Z ATMOSPHERE HAS BEEN GRADUALLY DESTABILIZING THIS AFTERNOON...AND LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS CONGESTUS FIELD OUT NEAR THE BADLANDS. THIS MAY BE AN AREA FOR STORM INITIATION IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. STORM NOW OVER THE BLACK HILLS IS PRODUCING HAIL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELLS. SUBTLE IMPULSE IN WV IMAGERY NOW MOVING OVER NRN WY SUGGESTS THAT THERE IS SOME WEAK LARGE SCALE ASCENT OCCURRING. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS / MLCAPE NEAR 2000 J/KG / WILL LIKELY FAVOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS THROUGH THE AFTN/EVENING. IT SEEMS INITIAL PULSE LIKE CONVECTION IS STRUGGLING TO BECOME CONNECTED WITH THE STRONGER FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS. IF STORMS CAN OVERCOME THIS...THEN A MORE ORGANIZED THREAT FOR SEVERE HAIL/WIND WOULD EXIST...AND A WATCH MAY BE CONSIDERED. ..TAYLOR.. 07/14/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS...BYZ... 41060511 42600595 44560561 45170400 44599984 41130153 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 14 22:11:20 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 14 Jul 2004 17:11:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407142211.i6EMBX108343@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 142210 SWOMCD SPC MCD 142210 VAZ000-MDZ000-NCZ000-142315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1672 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0510 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN VA SWD INTO NERN NC CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 630... VALID 142210Z - 142315Z WW630 WILL EXPIRE AT 23Z AND A NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. AS OF 2150Z...REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC INDICATED STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSTMS /SOME OF WHICH ARE EXHIBITING MID-LEVEL ROTATION/ FROM CAROLINE EWD INTO SOMERSET COUNTIES IN SERN VA AND FROM LOUISA COUNTY SWD INTO HALIFAX COUNTY IN S-CNTRL VA. MEANWHILE...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED DEEPENING CUMULUS FIELD ALONG AND N OF THE INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR IN NC. THOUGH STRONGEST DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN N OF THE REGION AND OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES THIS EVENING...AIRMASS S AND E OF ONGOING STORMS SWD ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG AND LITTLE OR NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. PRESENCE OF MODERATELY STRONG NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW /I.E. 40-45KTS AT 500MB/ ACROSS THIS INSTABILITY AXIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED TSTMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. ADDITIONALLY... LOCALLY LOW LFC HEIGHTS AND RESULTANT 0-3KM CAPES OF 100-200 J/KG ACROSS THIS SAME AREA SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG LOW-LEVEL STRETCHING AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO EVEN AS LOW-LEVEL SHEAR REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK. ..MEAD.. 07/14/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH... 38117772 37917530 35777641 35957889 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 14 23:18:31 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 14 Jul 2004 18:18:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407142318.i6ENIj130645@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 142318 SWOMCD SPC MCD 142317 NDZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-150015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1673 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0617 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MT/WRN ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 142317Z - 150015Z ...WW MAY BE NEEDED SHORTLY ACROSS ERN MT/WRN ND... VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES VIGOROUS CUMULUS DEVELOPING FROM OLF TO EFC. STORMS SHOULD RAPIDLY FORM GIVEN MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH MLCAPE RANGING FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG. FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF AROUND 35 KT WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. ..TAYLOR.. 07/14/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW... 45880474 46860513 48960592 48980172 46130249 45840361 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 14 23:23:47 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 14 Jul 2004 18:23:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407142324.i6ENO6132384@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 142323 SWOMCD SPC MCD 142323 GAZ000-SCZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-150100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1674 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0623 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CNTRL AL/GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 633... VALID 142323Z - 150100Z CONTINUE VALID PORTIONS OF WW. AS OF 2300Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED LEADING EDGE OF MCS FROM TISHOMINGO COUNTY MS SEWD TO RANDOLPH/CLAY COUNTIES IN AL AND THEN NEWD INTO WALTON AND OCONEE COUNTIES IN GA. OVERALL SYSTEM MOVEMENT IS TO THE SSE AT AROUND 35KTS WITH EXTRAPOLATION PLACING LEADING EDGE OF GUST FRONT TO SRN BORDER OF WW OVER E-CNTRL AL/W-CNTRL GA BY 01Z. COMBINATION OF MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS AND 30-40KT OF NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROMOTE SWD PROPAGATION OF CNTRL/ERN PORTIONS OF MCS WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. FARTHER TO THE W OVER NERN MS/NWRN AL...VOLUMETRIC RADAR DATA SHOW SUPERCELL OVER COLBERT/FRANKLIN COUNTIES AL ON WRN EDGE OF MCS MOVING SWD AT 25-35KTS. HERE...LATEST VWPS AND RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR WWD/NWWD BACKBUILDING STORMS THIS EVENING INTO PROGRESSIVELY STRONGER CAP IN PLACE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY. IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL IS ALSO LIKELY...ESPECIALLY WITH ONGOING SUPERCELL OVER FAR NWRN AL. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AND IF IT BECOMES APPARENT THAT STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BACKBUILD TO THE W OF WW633...A NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED. ..MEAD.. 07/14/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...FFC...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG... 34588826 34788232 32438229 32218811 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 15 00:50:02 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 14 Jul 2004 19:50:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407150050.i6F0oE127466@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 150049 SWOMCD SPC MCD 150049 NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-150215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1675 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0749 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN CO/ CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 634... VALID 150049Z - 150215Z ...THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES MAINLY ACROSS WRN SD... STEEP LAPSE RATES OF 8.5 C/KM COMBINED WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR PER 00Z RAPID CITY SOUNDING SUGGEST THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES AS OF 0030Z WERE STILL IN THE 90S WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM ERN MT TO THE BLACK HILLS/ERN WY. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TOWERING CUMULUS ARE DEVELOPING...AND SHOULD ANY STORMS FORM...THEY WILL TEND TO BECOME SUPERCELLS. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE FARTHER SOUTH IN THE WATCH MAY BE DIMINISHING...AND CERTAINLY WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...WE EXPECT A DOWNWARD TREND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE WW. 00Z SOUNDING FROM DENVER CONFIRMS THAT MIDLEVEL FLOW IS QUITE WEAK...AND SO LONGTERM STORM ORGANIZATION IS NOT LIKELY. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME STRONG STORMS SOUTHEAST OF DENVER NEAR LIC THAT HAVE BEEN PULSING...SO ISOLATED HAIL/WIND IS POSSIBLE FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO. ..TAYLOR.. 07/15/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...BYZ... 39110217 39110498 45780576 45720259 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 15 01:17:51 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 14 Jul 2004 20:17:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407150118.i6F1I5103330@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 150117 SWOMCD SPC MCD 150116 GAZ000-SCZ000-ALZ000-150215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1676 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0816 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CNTRL AL/GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 633... VALID 150116Z - 150215Z SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING ACROSS AREA AND WW WILL LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 02Z. REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT GUST FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTIVE COMPLEX HAS BECOME PROGRESSIVELY DISPLACED SWD FROM HIGHEST REFLECTIVITY CORES OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO. THIS SUGGESTS AN INCREASING UPSHEAR TILT TO CONVECTIVE TOWERS AND OVERALL DECAY OF MCS. BEST POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SEVERE TSTM ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE TO THE W OF WW633 OVER NRN MS. THOUGH AN ISOLATED HAIL/WIND OCCURRENCE IS POSSIBLE OVER NWRN AL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE TOO SMALL TO WARRANT A NEW WW. ..MEAD.. 07/15/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CAE...FFC...BMX...HUN...MOB... 34548808 34598658 33898496 33758395 33808225 32438230 32218813 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 15 02:07:55 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 14 Jul 2004 21:07:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407150208.i6F287118737@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 150207 SWOMCD SPC MCD 150207 VAZ000-NCZ000-MDZ000-150330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1677 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0907 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN VA/NERN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 635... VALID 150207Z - 150330Z CONTINUE VALID PORTIONS OF WW. AS OF 0158Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSTMS FROM SRN CHESAPEAKE BAY SWWD INTO WAKE AND CHATHAM COUNTIES IN CNTRL NC. THOUGH OBJECTIVE FIELDS SUGGEST THAT ENVIRONMENT REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG...COOLING/STABILIZING EFFECTS IN BOUNDARY-LAYER ARE RESULTING IN INCREASINGLY LARGE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. ISOLATED WIND/HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST INTENSE UPDRAFTS FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...HOWEVER OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH 04Z. ..MEAD.. 07/15/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH... 37937662 37877350 35437561 35507987 35977951 36007890 36507814 37407706 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 15 02:39:52 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 14 Jul 2004 21:39:52 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407150240.i6F2e3129836@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 150239 SWOMCD SPC MCD 150239 SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-150415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1678 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0939 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MT/WRN ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 636... VALID 150239Z - 150415Z POTENTIAL FOR PRIMARILY DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF WW AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BIMODAL SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE IS IN PROGRESS TONIGHT FROM SERN SASKATCHEWAN SWD INTO SWRN ND/NWRN SD. MCS EVOLVING OVER SERN SASKATCHEWAN AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WRN PORTIONS OF THE PROVINCE /PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/ REMAINS COMPOSED OF SEVERAL SUPERCELLS...THE SRN MOST OF WHICH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NERN SHERIDAN COUNTY MT. MEANWHILE...AN ADDITIONAL MORE ISOLATED SUPERCELL WAS LOCATED OVER SLOPE/BOWMAN COUNTIES IN SWRN ND. RUC POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE WW AREA CONTINUE TO INDICATE VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE PERSISTENCE OF THESE STORMS WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG...0-6KM SHEAR VALUES OF 45-55KTS AND 0-1KM SRH OF 100-200 M2/S2. INCREASING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WITH ONSET OF COOLING IN BOUNDARY-LAYER SHOULD TEND WEAKEN SRN SUPERCELL WITH TIME. PRIOR TO THIS...AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO...VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. FARTHER N...HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH COUPLED WITH EXPANDING AND DEEPENING MCS COLD POOL MAY SUPPORT A CONTINUED SERN SYSTEM MOVEMENT INTO NWRN AND POSSIBLY N-CNTRL OR CNTRL ND OVERNIGHT. HERE TOO...AN ISOLATED TORNADO IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...WITH PRIMARILY A DAMAGING WIND THREAT EXPECTED THEREAFTER. ..MEAD.. 07/15/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW... 48970571 48940152 45690005 45680404 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 15 03:07:52 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 14 Jul 2004 22:07:52 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407150308.i6F389106240@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 150307 SWOMCD SPC MCD 150307 SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-150400- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1679 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1007 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN MT/WRN SD/NERN WY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 634... VALID 150307Z - 150400Z POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST WITH ONGOING STORMS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AND A REPLACEMENT WW MAY BE REQUIRED. AS OF 0250Z...TWO SUPERCELLS WITH A HISTORY OF LARGE HAIL WERE LOCATED OVER BOWMAN COUNTY ND AND BUTTE COUNTY SD MOVING 345/30KTS. ENVIRONMENT REMAINS QUITE FAVORABLE FOR STORM ROTATION WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 45-55KTS AND 0-1KM SRH OF 100-150 M2/S2. THOUGH CONVECTIVE INHIBITION CONTINUES TO INCREASE WITH ONSET OF RADIATIONAL COOLING...NON-HYDROSTATIC PRESSURE GRADIENTS ASSOCIATED WITH MESOCYCLONES SHOULD ALLOW THESE STORMS TO OVERCOME STRENGTHENING CAP FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. WHILE LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS...MODERATELY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR MAY SUPPORT A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AND IF SUPERCELLS CAN MAINTAIN CURRENT NEAR-STEADY STATE...A NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED. ..MEAD.. 07/15/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ... 45740569 45690256 43030245 42990546 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 15 03:43:18 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 14 Jul 2004 22:43:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407150343.i6F3hU116704@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 150342 SWOMCD SPC MCD 150341 ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-150515- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1680 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1041 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN AR/SWRN TN AND NRN MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 637... VALID 150341Z - 150515Z POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS EXISTS WITH MOST INTENSE STORMS ACROSS WW AREA. REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS STORM REGENERATION ON PREFERRED WRN/SWRN FLANK OF SMALL MCS IN PROGRESS OVER FAR SWRN TN INTO NRN MS. FORCING FOR ASCENT IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK OVER THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS COUPLED WITH INFLOW OF MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ALONG WEAK WLY LLJ BRANCH OVER THE MS DELTA REGION IS LIKELY AIDING IN THIS PROCESS. MOREOVER...BAND OF 35-45KT NWLY FLOW AT 6KM PER MEMPHIS TN AND COLUMBUS MS VWPS IS RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR SOME MID-LEVEL ROTATION...IN ADDITION TO PROMOTING FORWARD PROPAGATION OF SYSTEM. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS IN ADDITION TO ISOLATED LARGE HAIL OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO WILL LIKELY BE WITH ORGANIZING LINE OF STORMS FROM DESOTO ESEWD INTO PRENTISS COUNTIES IN FAR NRN MS. ..MEAD.. 07/15/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN... 36089092 35368816 33588812 34159091 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 15 04:39:37 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 14 Jul 2004 23:39:37 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407150439.i6F4dn101508@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 150439 SWOMCD SPC MCD 150438 ALZ000-MSZ000-150615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1681 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1138 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CNTRL MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 150438Z - 150615Z DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE N BETWEEN 05-06Z. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE. SHORT LINE SEGMENT FROM LAFAYETTE COUNTY ESEWD INTO LEE COUNTY IN NRN MS HAS ACCELERATED SSEWD AT 25-30KTS OVER THE PAST HOUR WITH EXTRAPOLATION PLACING LEADING EDGE OF HIGHER REFLECTIVITIES TO SRN EDGE OF WW637 BY 0530Z. THOUGH CONVECTIVE INHIBITION HAS INCREASED TO OVER 200 J/KG PER OBJECTIVE FIELDS...COMBINATION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY...30-35KTS OF NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP SHEAR AND STRENGTHENING COLD POOL MAY MAINTAIN CONVECTIVE LINE AND INHERENT WIND THREAT S OF PRESENT WW AREA. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AND A WW MAY BE REQUIRED IF IT APPEARS THAT AN ORGANIZED WIND THREAT WILL DEVELOP S OF WW637. ..MEAD.. 07/15/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MEG...JAN... 34099061 33588818 32588838 33169094 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 15 07:38:51 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 15 Jul 2004 02:38:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407150739.i6F7d2117342@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 150738 SWOMCD SPC MCD 150737 NDZ000-SDZ000-150830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1682 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0237 AM CDT THU JUL 15 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 638... VALID 150737Z - 150830Z ...WW MAY BE CANCELED EARLY... ELEVATED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO GRADUAL DECREASE IN INTENSITY ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF WW AS ACTIVITY PROPAGATES INTO A PROGRESSIVELY MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. IF THESE TRENDS PERSIST WW MAY BE CANCELED EARLY. ..DARROW.. 07/15/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS... 46280169 47850099 48239959 46989927 45740021 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 15 14:33:12 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 15 Jul 2004 09:33:12 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407151433.i6FEXM121630@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 151432 SWOMCD SPC MCD 151432 IAZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-151630- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1683 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0932 AM CDT THU JUL 15 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN SD....NERN NEB...NWRN IA CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 151432Z - 151630Z ISOLD HAIL POTENTIAL SPREADING SEWD TOWARD THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. HOWEVER...SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TOO LIMITED FOR A WATCH AT THIS TIME. A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN MODEST 40KT NWLY FLOW APPEARS TO BE ENHANCING ASCENT AND DESTABILIZATION ACROSS SERN SD THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT...A SMALL CLUSTER OF ELEVATED TSTMS WAS SPREADING SEWD AT ABOUT 30KT ON THE ERN EDGE OF PLAINS CAPPING INVERSION. ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE OUTRUNNING STRONGEST LOW LEVEL FORCING ON THE NOSE OF WEAK WSWLY LLJ AND A GENERAL DOWNWARD TREND WAS NOTED IN REFLECTIVITY AND VIL OVER THE LAST HALF HOUR. EXPECT THIS WEAKENING TREND TO CONTINUE BASED ON LATEST ETA MODEL GUIDANCE. EXPECT NEW CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG UPSTREAM OUTFLOW/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY ACROSS ERN SD/NERN NEB LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS CAP IS BREACHED IN THESE AREAS. ..CARBIN.. 07/15/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX... 43639631 42349615 42199680 42909753 43279824 43849810 43879675 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 15 15:09:26 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 15 Jul 2004 10:09:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407151509.i6FF9a105450@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 151509 SWOMCD SPC MCD 151508 GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-151745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1684 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1008 AM CDT THU JUL 15 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN GA AND NRN FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 151508Z - 151745Z NUMEROUS STRONG AND OCCASIONALLY SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST INTO THIS AFTERNOON. GENERALLY WEAK ORGANIZATION AND RANDOM NATURE OF THE SEVERE THREAT WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO CONTAIN THIS AREA WITHIN A WATCH. NUMEROUS TSTMS HAVE ERUPTED ALONG WEAK CONFLUENCE ZONE GENERALLY ALONG THE GA/FL BORDER AREA. VERY HIGH INSTABILITY AND WEAK CAP WILL PERSIST BENEATH BROADLY DIFFLUENT MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO CONFLUENCE AXIS...SEA BREEZES AND RESIDUAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. WEAK SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD RESULT IN POORLY ORGANIZED CONVECTION. HOWEVER...MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY...STORM COVERAGE...AND STORM SCALE INTERACTIONS COULD LEAD TO A FEW SEVERE WIND AND/OR HAIL REPORTS...IN ADDITION TO VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. ..CARBIN.. 07/15/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...TAE... 30178126 29758272 30028487 30388521 31068541 31558490 31588341 31638233 31688157 31528124 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 15 16:56:51 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 15 Jul 2004 11:56:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407151657.i6FGv2X00358@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 151656 SWOMCD SPC MCD 151655 NEZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-151900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1685 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1155 AM CDT THU JUL 15 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 151655Z - 151900Z SMALL CLUSTER OF INTENSE CONVECTION WAS TRACKING ALMOST DUE SOUTH ACROSS NERN NEB. AN ISOLD HAIL THREAT WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST CELLS. POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS MAY ALSO EVOLVE FROM THIS ACTIVITY AS BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING/MIXING CONTINUES TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED SHORTLY. MID LEVEL PERTURBATION AND ASSOCIATED SMALL SCALE NWLY WIND MAX DEVELOPING SEWD ACROSS ERN SD APPEAR TO BE CONTRIBUTING TO SUSTAINED ASCENT AND DESTABILIZATION ON THE EDGE OF PLAINS CAPPING INVERSION. TSTM INTENSITY HAS BEEN CYCLING OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS WITH A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OCCURRING ALONG THE SWRN FLANK OF THE COMPLEX....AND NOW NEW DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE STORMS IN PIERCE AND WAYNE COUNTIES. STRONG UPSTREAM INSTABILITY OVER WRN/CNTRL NEB COUPLED WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION... AND MODEST NWLY FLOW...SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT VIGOROUS CONVECTION AND PERHAPS SUPERCELLS. CURRENT ACTIVITY COULD MAINTAIN SEVERE INTENSITY...IN THE FORM OF HAIL AND PERHAPS WIND... ACROSS ERN NEB OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ..CARBIN.. 07/15/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF... 43769831 43459720 41819622 40149563 40129738 42469837 43289914 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 15 17:29:40 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 15 Jul 2004 12:29:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407151729.i6FHTnX15967@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 151729 SWOMCD SPC MCD 151728 MNZ000-NDZ000-151930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1686 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1228 PM CDT THU JUL 15 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN ND AND NRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 151728Z - 151930Z SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS INTO NRN MN THIS AFTERNOON. PRIMARY THREAT SHOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND ISOLD STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS. A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED. LOW AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED WITHIN MODEST 30-40KT NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SEWD FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS IMPULSE SHOULD ENHANCE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ASCENT ALONG SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH SITUATED SW TO NE ACROSS ERN ND AND INTO NWRN MN. MODEST NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW ATOP WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND INCREASING INSTABILITY SHOULD MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. A FEW SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. DESPITE SUPERCELL THREAT...TORNADO POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE LIMITED BY WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW AND SOMEWHAT MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. ..CARBIN.. 07/15/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF... 48489287 46789345 46609495 47269603 47729659 48609790 48989739 48969484 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 15 18:02:03 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 15 Jul 2004 13:02:03 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407151802.i6FI2CX30272@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 151801 SWOMCD SPC MCD 151801 UTZ000-AZZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-152030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1687 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0101 PM CDT THU JUL 15 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN NV....SWRN UT...NWRN AZ CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 151801Z - 152030Z POCKETS OF INTENSE BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING COUPLED WITH MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME ACROSS THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST UT WILL CONTINUE TO FUEL VIGOROUS TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER PARTS OF THE DESERT SW THIS AFTERNOON. BULK OF CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BE PULSE VARIETY WITH ISOLD TO WIDELY DAMAGING WIND THREAT...AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL. A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. ..CARBIN.. 07/15/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGZ...SLC...VEF...LKN... 36531261 34951400 35181499 36581630 37531625 39041431 39341234 38571087 38291028 36971141 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 15 18:13:52 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 15 Jul 2004 13:13:52 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407151814.i6FIE3X02930@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 151813 SWOMCD SPC MCD 151812 ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-OKZ000-152015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1688 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0112 PM CDT THU JUL 15 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK/AR/MS/WRN AL/NERN LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 151812Z - 152015Z ....STORMS WILL BE DEVELOPING THIS AFTN IN A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH SOME STRONG/SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE... LATEST SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SE KS NEAR CNU SEWD ALONG A FYV/HOT/TYR/MGM LINE. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS DEVELOPING ALONG THIS AXIS. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW/MID 70S ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 3500 J/KG. GIVEN LITTLE TO NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...STORMS WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP ESPECIALLY WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED. THIS REGION IS RIGHT ON THE SWRN FRINGE OF THE STRONGER NWLY FLOW ALOFT. HASKELL OK/SRN MO PROFILER DATA INDICATE AROUND 25-35 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WEAKENS WITH SWD EXTENT PER THE 18Z JACKSON MS SOUNDING. WITH DOWNDRAFT CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG...THREAT OVER THE GULF COAST STATES SHOULD BE FROM MICROBURST WINDS. WHILE STORMS MAY NOT BE WELL ORGANIZED INITIALLY...THE LACK OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND ABUNDANT INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR NUMEROUS STORMS. CELL/BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY INTENSE UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND. ..TAYLOR.. 07/15/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA... 36319501 34899511 32309238 31438653 32998650 34909082 36459402 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 15 18:41:04 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 15 Jul 2004 13:41:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407151841.i6FIfDX14180@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 151840 SWOMCD SPC MCD 151839 UTZ000-AZZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-152115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1689 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0139 PM CDT THU JUL 15 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN NV....SWRN UT...NWRN AZ CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 151839Z - 152115Z POCKETS OF INTENSE BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING COUPLED WITH MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME ACROSS THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST UT WILL CONTINUE TO FUEL VIGOROUS TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER PARTS OF THE DESERT SW THIS AFTERNOON. BULK OF CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BE PULSE VARIETY WITH ISOLD TO WIDELY DAMAGING WIND THREAT...AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL. A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. ..CARBIN.. 07/15/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGZ...SLC...VEF...LKN... 36531261 34951400 35181499 36581630 37531625 39041431 39341234 38571087 38291028 36971141 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 15 19:04:51 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 15 Jul 2004 14:04:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407151905.i6FJ50X24926@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 151904 SWOMCD SPC MCD 151903 NEZ000-SDZ000-152130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1690 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0203 PM CDT THU JUL 15 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN SD...ERN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 151903Z - 152130Z TSTMS EXPECTED TO FORM QUICKLY NEAR THE SD/NEB BORDER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ACTIVITY SHOULD REACH SEVERE LEVELS RAPIDLY. WITH VOLATILE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS DEVELOPING...A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. LATEST SATELLITE LOOPS WERE SHOWING THICKENING CU FIELD NEAR OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/WIND SHIFT INTERSECTION ON THE SD/NEB BORDER AREA NW OF O'NEILL NEB. AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF MORNING MCS WAS QUICKLY RECOVERING. STRONG HEATING AND LOW 70S DEWPOINTS ACROSS CNTRL NEB WERE RESULTING IN MLCAPE VALUES CLIMBING TO AT LEAST 2000 J/KG. DESPITE RELATIVELY WEAK/AMBIGUOUS LARGE SCALE FORCING ACROSS THE REGION...CONVERGENCE ALONG BOUNDARY INTERSECTIONS...AND INTENSE HEATING INTO THE 90S SHOULD PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR STORM INITIATION WITHIN 1-2 HOURS. RUC FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATED THAT REMAINING INHIBITION SHOULD BE OVERCOME AS TEMPERATURES EXCEED THE MID 90S. TEMPERATURES ACROSS SCNTRL SD...IN WAKE OF THE WIND SHIFT...WERE ALREADY NEARING 95F. INCREASING NWLY FLOW WITH HEIGHT ATOP WEAK SLY/SELY NEAR SURFACE FLOW WILL RESULT IN STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. STORMS TRACKING SWD ALONG RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS ECNTRL NEB WILL ENCOUNTER ENHANCED 0-3KM SRH IN THE 200-300 M2/S2 RANGE...MORE THAN ADEQUATE TO MAINTAIN STRONG MESOCYCLONES...AND A CHANCE FOR TORNADOES. ADDITIONALLY... LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH ANY SUPERCELLS THAT FORM. ..CARBIN.. 07/15/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR... 41079933 41440050 41860116 42670008 43489982 44219933 44159807 43139715 41909664 41139777 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 15 19:54:42 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 15 Jul 2004 14:54:42 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407151954.i6FJsoX18682@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 151953 SWOMCD SPC MCD 151953 NEZ000-KSZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-152230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1691 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0253 PM CDT THU JUL 15 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN WY/WRN NEB/NERN CO/NW KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 151953Z - 152230Z NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED ACROSS MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE FRONT RANGE...WITH A FEW STORMS ACROSS THE ERN CO PLAINS/NW KS. WIND SHIFT LINE IS NOTED ACROSS NEB FROM BFF TO ODX AND IS ALSO PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND STORM FORMATION. UPSLOPE FLOW OF INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR WITH MLCAPE VALUES NEARING 2000 J/KG WILL CONTRIBUTE TO CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS INTO THIS EVENING. UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS RELATIVELY WEAK ACROSS CO/WY BUT ACTIVITY MAY TEND TO CONGEAL INTO LARGER MASS OF CONVECTION AND MOVE EAST TOWARD GREATER INSTABILITY NEXT FEW HOURS. AS THIS PROCESS UNFOLDS...MICROBURST WINDS AND/OR HAIL POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS. GIVEN LACK OF STRONGER FLOW ALOFT AND RELATIVELY STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE ONGOING STORMS...HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING WILL ALSO BE A THREAT. ..TAYLOR/CARBIN.. 07/15/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...RIW... 38660273 39380538 42640631 43070327 42960154 41940138 39250076 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 15 19:56:13 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 15 Jul 2004 14:56:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407151956.i6FJuMX19472@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 151955 SWOMCD SPC MCD 151955 GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-152200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1692 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0255 PM CDT THU JUL 15 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AL...SRN GA....NRN FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 151955Z - 152200Z NUMEROUS STRONG AND SEVERE TSTMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS SERN AL...SRN GA...AND PORTIONS OF NRN FL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WHILE PARTS OF THE REGION HAVE ALREADY EXPERIENCED WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE WEATHER IN THE FORM OF HAIL AND WIND...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD WIND AND HAIL REPORTS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS STRONGER SHEAR OVERSPREADS EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. A WATCH MAY BE ISSUED SHORTLY. ..CARBIN.. 07/15/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX... 32048140 31698128 30768165 30478251 30468469 30548584 30758589 31038587 31818593 31978352 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 15 22:05:23 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 15 Jul 2004 17:05:23 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407152205.i6FM5WX15653@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 152204 SWOMCD SPC MCD 152204 OKZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-152330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1693 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0504 PM CDT THU JUL 15 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN CO SEWD ACROSS WRN KS INTO N-CNTRL OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 152204Z - 152330Z POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST WITH DEVELOPING STORMS. RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS STORMS DEVELOPING FROM PORTIONS OF NERN CO SEWD INTO SWRN KS /FORD COUNTY/. 21Z MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING ALONG A BOUNDARY THAT SEPARATES HOT...DEEPLY-MIXED AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER SWRN KS/WRN OK FROM COMPARATIVELY COOLER AND MORE MOIST AIR RESIDING FROM CNTRL NEB/CNTRL KS INTO ERN OK. THOUGH NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK ACROSS THIS AREA AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 20-25KTS...PRESENCE OF SLY/SELY BOUNDARY-LAYER WINDS AND MODERATE INSTABILITY /I.E. MLCAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG/ SHOULD SUPPORT SOME STORM ORGANIZATION WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. HOWEVER...IF IT APPEARS THAT STORMS MAY MERGE INTO ORGANIZED CLUSTERS OR POSSIBLY A FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS...WW MAY BE REQUIRED. ..MEAD.. 07/15/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...LBF...DDC...GLD...AMA...BOU... 40640277 40660201 37319811 36639739 36629966 40590404 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 15 22:19:07 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 15 Jul 2004 17:19:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407152219.i6FMJGX21335@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 152218 SWOMCD SPC MCD 152218 FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-160015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1694 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0518 PM CDT THU JUL 15 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AL/CNTRL MS/NERN LA/SERN AR/SRN GA/NRN FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 639...641... VALID 152218Z - 160015Z MARITIME BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH SWRN/SCNTRL GA SHOULD CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT CONVECTION IN THESE AREAS...SO SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE DIMINISHING WITH TIME. EARLIER STORMS ACROSS NERN FL HAVE ALSO SOMEWHAT STABILIZED AIRMASS IN THAT REGION GIVEN THE LACK OF NEW CUMULUS NEAR JAX. SO...MAIN THREAT FOR WW 641 WILL BE IN THE WRN PORTION OF WW FROM MAI/DHN WEST...AND IN NE PART OF WW. THERE IS A WEDGE OF UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS SRN AL NOT CURRENTLY INCLUDED IN PRESENT WATCHES WHICH HAS NOT YET BEEN OVERTURNED. A SHORT TERM SEVERE THREAT EXISTS HERE...WITH ACTIVE CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY PER LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY. ACROSS WW 642...SEVERE THREAT PERSISTS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE WATCH...AS STORMS DEVELOP IN A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. ..TAYLOR.. 07/15/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LZK...SHV... 33969202 32228796 31258142 29738142 30618637 30458790 32299203 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 15 22:41:57 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 15 Jul 2004 17:41:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407152242.i6FMg6X29104@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 152241 SWOMCD SPC MCD 152241 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-160015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1695 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0541 PM CDT THU JUL 15 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SD INTO CNTRL/SRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 152241Z - 160015Z POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA AND A WW MAY BE REQUIRED. STORMS HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO FROM PORTIONS OF ERN ND INTO CNTRL MN /NE OF AXN/ AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SEWD THROUGH NRN MN. THOUGH DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL/SRN MN IS ONLY WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG...CURRENT WOOD LAKE PROFILER SUGGESTS THAT AS STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE S...INFLOW SOURCE REGION WILL LIKELY BE MORE STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS ERN SD WHERE MLCAPES HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND 2500 J/KG. ADDITIONALLY... THIS PROFILER INDICATES RELATIVELY LONG HODOGRAPH WITH 0-6KM SHEAR OF 50-55KTS. IF STORMS CAN TAP AFOREMENTIONED STRONGER AIRMASS OVER ERN SD...DEGREE OF SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. STORMS MAY ATTEMPT TO CONGEAL INTO FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WITH WWD DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE INTO STRONGER CAP OVER ERN SD. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AND A WW MAY BE REQUIRED WITHIN THE HOUR. ..MEAD.. 07/15/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR... 46219789 46109300 43529303 43589783 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 15 22:47:57 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 15 Jul 2004 17:47:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407152248.i6FMm5X30861@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 152247 SWOMCD SPC MCD 152246 NMZ000-AZZ000-160045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1696 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0546 PM CDT THU JUL 15 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SCNTRL/SERN AZ CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 152246Z - 160045Z ...SEVERE POTENTIAL IS BEING MONITORED FOR SCNTRL/SERN AZ FOR STORMS DEVELOPING MAINLY ACROSS SERN AZ... MEAN FLOW ALOFT PER FLAGSTAFF VWP DATA IS SELY...AND MAINLY PARALLEL TO THE MOGOLLON RIM. STORMS WHICH ALREADY EXTEND SEWD FROM FLAGSTAFF INTO THE WHITE MTNS WILL THEREFORE PROPAGATE ALONG THE RIM STAYING FOCUSED ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FARTHER NW...NEAR LAS VEGAS...AIRMASS IS NOT AS UNSTABLE...PROBABLY DUE TO EARLIER STORMS. IN ADDITION 18Z FLAGSTAFF SOUNDING HAD ONLY MODEST MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH MLCAPE VALUES JUST OVER 1000 J/KG. THE GREATER CONCERN FOR SEVERE IS ACROSS SERN AZ NEAR TUS...WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE 90S TO NEAR 100...AND LAPSE RATES ARE OBVIOUSLY STEEPER. THESE STORMS...GIVEN STRONGER SELY FLOW ALOFT OF AROUND 20 KT...WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO MOVE INTO THE LOWER VALLEYS...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE TUS/PHX METRO AREAS LATER TONIGHT. ..TAYLOR.. 07/15/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABQ...TWC...FGZ...PSR... 31320910 31581170 33861277 35251232 35311122 35150903 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 15 23:09:03 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 15 Jul 2004 18:09:03 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407152309.i6FN9FX06166@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 152308 SWOMCD SPC MCD 152308 NEZ000-KSZ000-160045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1697 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0608 PM CDT THU JUL 15 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 152308Z - 160045Z POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND A WW MAY BE REQUIRED. AS OF 2252Z...NORTH PLATTE RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS INTENSE LINE OF STORMS OVER SRN CUSTER COUNTY WWD INTO CNTRL PORTIONS OF LINCOLN COUNTY. EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS SHORT LINE WAS A SUPERCELL OVER S-CNTRL CUSTER COUNTY /S OF BBW/. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT THIS LINE OF STORMS IS MOVING/DEVELOPING SWD THROUGH AXIS OF STRONGEST INSTABILITY WHERE MLCAPES HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND 4000 J/KG. THOUGH RED WILLOW NEB PROFILER SHOWS COMPARATIVELY WEAKER MID-LEVEL FLOW THAN PROFILER SITES OVER ERN NEB...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SWD TOWARD THE KS BORDER WITH SOME ADDITIONAL WWD DEVELOPMENT STILL POSSIBLE. EITHER AN ADDITIONAL WW OR REPLACEMENT WW MAY BE REQUIRED WITHIN THE HOUR. ..MEAD.. 07/15/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD... 40960190 41059943 40029947 39960194 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 16 00:35:45 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 15 Jul 2004 19:35:45 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407160035.i6G0ZtX32450@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 160035 SWOMCD SPC MCD 160034 GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-160200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1698 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0734 PM CDT THU JUL 15 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AR/NERN LA/SRN MS/SRN AL/WRN FL PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 639...641... VALID 160034Z - 160200Z ...SVR WW 639 AND 641 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 01Z... A SEVERE THREAT STILL EXISTS ACROSS EXTREME WRN PORTIONS OF WW 641...AS STORMS CONTINUE TO THRIVE ON UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH WET MICROBURSTS. RECENT SFC OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN BETWEEN 25-35 KT...AND A FEW REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE HAVE BEEN RECEIVED. OVERALL...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE DIMINISHING OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. A NEW WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ..TAYLOR.. 07/16/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LZK...SHV... 30988389 30338469 30848767 30648831 31028922 32259199 33939197 31948693 31758518 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 16 00:54:32 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 15 Jul 2004 19:54:32 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407160054.i6G0sgX06052@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 160053 SWOMCD SPC MCD 160053 IAZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-160200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1699 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0753 PM CDT THU JUL 15 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN SD AND PORTIONS OF ERN/CNTRL NEB CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 640... VALID 160053Z - 160200Z POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES EXISTS WITH SUPERCELLS OVER NERN NEB. CONTINUE WW. AS OF 0030Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED A SUPERCELL OVER W-CNTRL ANTELOPE/SERN HOLT COUNTIES IN NERN NEB MOVING SWD AT 10-20KTS. LATEST MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT THIS STORM IS COLOCATED WITH A MESOLOW NW OF OFK WITHIN ZONE OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. 00Z OAX SOUNDING INDICATED PRESENCE OF MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH MLCAPES OF 2000-2500 J/KG...HOWEVER A PRONOUNCED CAP WAS OBSERVED IN THE 850-700MB LAYER. THIS SUGGESTS THAT STORMS SHOULD REMAIN CLOSELY TIED TO THIS SURFACE LOW AND ATTENDANT MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES WHERE STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE CAN FORCE PARCELS TO THE LFC. SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50KTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUSTAIN ONGOING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. ADDITIONALLY...MODEST DEGREE OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR / I.E. 0-1KM SRH OF 100-150 M2/S2 / SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS THAT CAN OVERCOME INCREASING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AND A REPLACEMENT WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED WITHIN THE HOUR. ..MEAD.. 07/16/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF... 43569910 43579645 40629691 40649939 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 16 01:03:04 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 15 Jul 2004 20:03:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407160103.i6G13FX08143@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 160102 SWOMCD SPC MCD 160101 ARZ000-LAZ000-MOZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-160300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1700 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0801 PM CDT THU JUL 15 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SW MO/AR/NRN LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 642... VALID 160101Z - 160300Z ...SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA...BUT ESPECIALLY NW AR/SW MO... TOWERING CUMULUS EXTENDS FROM JOHNSON/WASHINGTON COUNTIES IN NW ARKANSAS BACK INTO SW MO. STORMS HAD INITIALLY BEEN PREFERENTIALLY FORMING ON THE NORTHEAST FLANK OF THE SYSTEM AND ARE NOW WEAKENING OVER BAXTER/STONE COUNTIES AS THEY MOVE INTO A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. LATEST LIGHTNING DATA SHOW THE MOST ACTIVE AREA OF CONVECTION OVER NW AR...AND THE CONCERN IS ON BACKBUILDING CELLS ON THE NW SIDE. BOTH 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM SPRINGFIELD AND LITTLE ROCK LOOK VERY FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH OVER 5000 J/KG AT LZK. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS AROUND 30 KT...AND ASSUMING A COLD POOL CAN FORM WITH ONGOING CELLS ACROSS AR...THE SYSTEM MAY ALSO FORWARD PROPAGATE SEWD PER MCS MOTION VECTORS. ..TAYLOR.. 07/16/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA... 31739199 34059479 37599472 35309191 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 16 02:17:09 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 15 Jul 2004 21:17:09 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407160217.i6G2HHX32392@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 160216 SWOMCD SPC MCD 160216 WIZ000-MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-160345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1701 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0916 PM CDT THU JUL 15 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN ND/NERN SD AND PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 643... VALID 160216Z - 160345Z POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED WIND/HAIL IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...HOWEVER OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING. REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS CLUSTER OF STRONG TSTMS OVER STEVENS AND POPE COUNTIES IN W-CNTRL MN MOVING SWD AT 20-30KTS. THOUGH 00Z MPX/ABR SOUNDINGS INDICATED PRESENCE OF MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS...IT APPEARS THAT RELATIVELY WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE HAS LIMITED OVERALL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. LATEST WOOD LAKE PROFILER DATA CONTINUE TO SHOW IMPRESSIVE MID/UPPER-LEVEL WIND FIELDS WITH 40-50KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR INVOF OF ONGOING STORMS. THUS...POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED WIND/HAIL IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS FROM SW OF AXN TO W/NW OF RWF. ..MEAD.. 07/16/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS... 47279812 46619697 46489538 46299434 45989278 43769278 44699807 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 16 03:01:38 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 15 Jul 2004 22:01:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407160301.i6G31kX13944@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 160300 SWOMCD SPC MCD 160300 NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-160430- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1702 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1000 PM CDT THU JUL 15 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN CO/NWRN KS AND SWRN INTO S-CNTRL NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 644... VALID 160300Z - 160430Z ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL REMAINS POSSIBLE...HOWEVER OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS DIMINISHING. REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS LARGE CONVECTIVE MASS OVER WRN PORTIONS OF WW AREA WITH POSSIBLE MCV OVER EXTREME SWRN NEB/NWRN KS. STRONGEST TSTM ACTIVITY AS OF 0250Z WAS OCCURRING FROM VICINITY OF MCV EWD INTO HITCHCOCK COUNTY NEB AND RAWLINS/THOMAS COUNTIES IN NWRN KS. POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE AN INCREASING CAP AND RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR...SUGGESTING THAT ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND/HAIL THREAT WILL LIKELY REMAIN CONFINED TO LEADING EDGE OF SYSTEM COLD POOL AS IT SLOWLY PROGRESSES SEWD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ..MEAD.. 07/16/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...BOU...CYS... 41010269 40349803 38819811 39430273 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 16 04:35:16 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 15 Jul 2004 23:35:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407160435.i6G4ZOX10236@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 160434 SWOMCD SPC MCD 160434 MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-160600- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1703 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1134 PM CDT THU JUL 15 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB/WRN IA INTO NERN KS AND NWRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 160434Z - 160600Z POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL WILL EXIST WITH MOST INTENSE STORMS. WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. AS OF 0424Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ELEVATED TSTMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FROM ERN NEB/WRN IA INTO FAR NWRN MO. OMA/DSM/TOP VWPS ALL INDICATE A PERSISTENT WAA SIGNATURE...LIKELY SUPPORTING ONGOING STORMS ABOVE CAP OBSERVED ON 00Z OMA/TOP SOUNDINGS WHERE MUCAPES REMAIN AROUND 1500-2500 J/KG. EFFECTIVE SHEAR ABOVE CAP REMAINS SUFFICIENTLY STRONG ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED TSTMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...THOUGH RELATIVELY WARM THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WITH WBZ HEIGHTS OF 11.5-12.5 KFT SHOULD PROMOTE SIGNIFICANT MELTING AND LIMIT OVERALL HAIL POTENTIAL. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM...HOWEVER CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED. ..MEAD.. 07/16/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP... 42159628 41699457 40309317 39009254 38409355 38089474 39069628 41369703 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 16 08:34:31 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 16 Jul 2004 03:34:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407160834.i6G8YcX09892@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 160834 SWOMCD SPC MCD 160833 MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-161030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1704 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0333 AM CDT FRI JUL 16 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS / WRN MO... CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 160833Z - 161030Z MAINLY ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS NWRN MO...AND TO SOME DEGREE ACROSS E CENTRAL AND NERN KS. WW WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY FOR MUCH OF SOUTHWEST MO AND EXTREME EASTERN KS. SURFACE-BASED SUPERCELL STORM HAS EVOLVED OUT OF ELEVATED STORM CLUSTER MOVING SSEWD ACROSS NWRN MO...AND IS APPROACHING THE KANSAS CITY AREA ATTM. DAMAGING WINDS -- INCLUDING 51 KT GUST AT MCI AND PUBLIC REPORT OF A TORNADO IN CLAY COUNTY -- HAVE OCCURRED WITH THIS STORM OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR. THUS FAR...ONLY ISOLATED CELLS HAVE BEEN SEVERE DUE TO RELATIVELY WEAK LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA...AND CAP WHICH CONTINUES TO INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE WIDESPREAD / INTENSE STORMS. HAVING SAID THAT...ONGOING SUPERCELL IS MOVING SWD TOWARD MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS /1000 TO 2000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE/...SUGGESTING THAT THIS STORM AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE. RADAR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO ORGANIZE INTO SMALL BOW ECHO...WITH ENHANCED THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS. MEANWHILE...HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS NWRN MO AS STORMS TRAIN / MOVE ESEWD REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME AREAS WITHIN MOIST /1.5 TO 1.75" PRECIPITABLE WATER/ AIRMASS. ..GOSS.. 07/16/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT... 40439523 40329448 38409307 37589284 37249375 37239500 38129623 39099629 40169607 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 16 11:29:40 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 16 Jul 2004 06:29:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407161129.i6GBTwX28497@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 161129 SWOMCD SPC MCD 161128 MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-161300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1705 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0628 AM CDT FRI JUL 16 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...W CENTRAL AND SWRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 645... VALID 161128Z - 161300Z WIDESPREAD / PRIMARILY ELEVATED STORMS CONTINUE MOVING SSEWD ACROSS NRN PARTS OF WW ATTM. ALTHOUGH WW REMAINS IN EFFECT...SEVERE THREAT HAS DECREASED. WW MAY BE CANCELLED PRIOR TO ITS 16/14Z EXPIRATION. DESPITE FAVORABLE INSTABILITY...THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING WITHIN BROAD AREA OF WARM ADVECTION ACROSS MO REMAIN ELEVATED ABOVE CAPPING INVERSION / STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. SURFACE-BASED SUPERCELL WHICH PRODUCED DAMAGING WINDS / HAIL ACROSS PARTS OF THE KANSAS CITY METRO AREA EARLIER HAS SINCE WEAKENED...AND STORMS HAVE REMAINED SUB-SEVERE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. ATTM...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED / SUB-SEVERE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. ALTHOUGH WW REMAINS IN EFFECT ATTM...EARLY CANCELLATION MAY BE POSSIBLE BARRING ANY UNFORESEEN INCREASES IN SEVERE THREAT ACROSS SWRN MO. ..GOSS.. 07/16/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA... 38099478 38459420 38139282 37549237 36489222 36469458 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 16 15:52:31 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 16 Jul 2004 10:52:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407161552.i6GFqbX01098@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 161551 SWOMCD SPC MCD 161551 MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-161815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1706 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1051 AM CDT FRI JUL 16 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN MI...NWRN IND...SRN WI...NRN IL...AND ERN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 161551Z - 161815Z POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS/ISOLATED HAIL THIS AFTERNOON FROM ERN IA TO SWRN MI/NWRN IND. AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW NEXT 1-3 HOURS. AT 1530Z...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING ALONG WIND SHIFT/WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NEAR GREEN BAY SWWD INTO CENTRAL IA. WV IMAGERY SUGGESTS A MODEST MID-LEVEL VORT MAX IS MOVING SSEWD ACROSS NRN WI WHICH MAY ALSO BE SUPPORTING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. CELLS WERE TRACKING 330/20-25 KT. SOME INCREASE IN SPEED IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON IF ORGANIZED MESOSCALE COLD POOLS CAN DEVELOP WITH CONVECTIVE DOWNDRAFTS. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE ENVIRONMENT DOWNSTREAM OF CURRENT ACTIVITY...WITH MUCAPE OF 2000-2500 J/KG EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON IN A BAND ACROSS ERN IA AND NRN IL. MUCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG IS LIKELY ACROSS SWRN MI/NWRN IND. CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS ALREADY MINIMAL AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN...SO THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS ERN IA/FAR SRN WI GIVEN SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND MID-LEVEL PVA. DEEP-LAYER NWLY FLOW SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR FORWARD PROPAGATING BOW SEGMENTS BY AFTERNOON WITH DAMAGING WINDS. LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH LONGER LIVED CELLS. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW NEXT 1-3 HOURS. ..BANACOS.. 07/16/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX... 42749180 42989157 43078965 43198756 43228676 43098518 42558481 42348484 41808499 41558518 41368538 41268571 41088666 41028747 41018858 40819081 41239124 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 16 16:43:37 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 16 Jul 2004 11:43:37 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407161643.i6GGhgX24448@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 161642 SWOMCD SPC MCD 161642 ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-161945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1707 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1142 AM CDT FRI JUL 16 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...MS...WEST CNTRL AND SWRN AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 161642Z - 161945Z STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP FROM NORTH CENTRAL MS SWD INTO SERN MS. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. WW ISSUANCE FOR THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. VERY MOIST AIR MASS WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOW/MID 70S ARE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA...AND BREAKS IN CLOUDS ARE ALLOWING LOCALIZED AREAS OF ENHANCED HEATING TO OCCUR. THIS IS RESULTING IN VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG. VERTICAL WINDS/SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 6 KM ARE RELATIVELY WEAK SUGGESTING THAT STORMSCALE ORGANIZATION WILL BE LIMITED. HOWEVER...NON-SATURATED AIR PRESENT IN 12Z JAN SOUNDING ABOVE THE SURFACE SUGGESTS THREAT FOR ENHANCED DOWNDRAFT GENERATION AND LOCALIZED WET MICROBURSTS. IN ADDITION...AMPLE MOISTURE CONTENT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES AND SLOW CELL MOVEMENT INDICATE THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. A WW FOR THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM...HOWEVER WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION FOR POSSIBILITY OF ORGANIZED COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR INCREASED MESOSCALE ORGANIZATION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ..WEISS.. 07/16/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...MEG...JAN...LIX... 31409033 32809033 33939014 34068943 33688838 32508793 31258777 30498841 30819014 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 16 17:25:07 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 16 Jul 2004 12:25:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407161725.i6GHPDX09683@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 161724 SWOMCD SPC MCD 161723 MSZ000-TNZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-161900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1708 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1223 PM CDT FRI JUL 16 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...AR...WRN MS...NERN LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 646... VALID 161723Z - 161900Z STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED SEWD ACROSS NERN AR AND WRN TN. AIR MASS AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY REMAINS VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE OF 2500-3500 J/KG. ALTHOUGH STORMS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO INTENSIFY DURING THE MORNING...POTENTIAL FOR STRENGTHENING WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON. A NEW WW WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY FOR PARTS OF SERN AR INTO WRN MS AND NERN LA TO REPLACE WW 646. ..WEISS.. 07/16/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LIX...LZK...SHV... 31169021 31409193 33749209 34559185 34909114 35028983 34738963 34348958 32289001 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 16 19:46:53 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 16 Jul 2004 14:46:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407161946.i6GJkxX31240@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 161946 SWOMCD SPC MCD 161945 MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-162115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1709 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0245 PM CDT FRI JUL 16 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IA...CENTRAL/NRN IL...N-CENTRAL/NWRN IND...AND SRN LAKE MICHIGAN CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 647... VALID 161945Z - 162115Z CONTINUE WW. AT 1930Z...SEVERAL WEAKLY ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTERS CONTINUE FROM 25NW MLI EWD INTO NWRN IND. ADDITIONAL STORM CLUSTERS CONTINUE ADJACENT TO THE WATCH AREA ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN WI AND PORTIONS OF LOWER MI. STORM MOTION WAS GENERALLY 340/20-25 KT. MODERATE INSTABILITY...WITH 100MB MLCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG...CONTINUES ACROSS THE SRN GREAT LAKES REGION WWD TO THE MS RIVER VALLEY. ALTHOUGH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING SSEWD ACROSS CENTRAL WI AND UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR REMAINS STRONG /60KT AT 10 KM PER BLU PROFILER/...STORMS HAVE NOT BECOME VERY WELL ORGANIZED ON THE MESOSCALE. ABSENCE OF CIN HAS ALLOWED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP IN A WIDELY SCATTERED FASHION. INSTABILITY SHOULD ALLOW FOR CONTINUED THREAT OF LARGE HAIL WITH LONGER-LIVED CELLS. DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LOCALIZED UNLESS GREATER MESOSCALE ORGANIZATION CAN BECOME ESTABLISHED. CELL MERGERS AND TRAINING OF STORMS SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL /UP TO 2"/HR/ ACROSS NWRN IND DURING THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. ..BANACOS.. 07/16/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX... 40439225 42619210 42388576 40208585 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 16 20:04:46 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 16 Jul 2004 15:04:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407162004.i6GK4pX05705@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 162004 SWOMCD SPC MCD 162003 MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-162200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1710 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0303 PM CDT FRI JUL 16 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AR...MS...NERN LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 648... VALID 162003Z - 162200Z SCATTERED NEW CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER PARTS OF SERN AR...NERN LA...AND WRN MS IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER STORMS NOW OVER WRN AL. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER CONVECTION CONTRIBUTED TO ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AS THE BOUNDARIES PROPAGATED WWD...WITH CONTINUING OUTFLOW MERGERS RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS /MLCAPE OF 2500-3500 J/KG/. VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION REMAINS MODEST AT BEST IN ASSOCIATION WITH 20-30 KT NWLY FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS. THIS SUGGESTS CONVECTION WILL PERSIST PRIMARILY AS MULTICELL CLUSTERS WITH POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ..WEISS.. 07/16/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MOB...MEG...JAN...LIX...LZK...SHV... 32549221 33689252 34299260 34389132 34629027 34688950 33148911 31278870 31279008 31359194 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 16 20:15:49 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 16 Jul 2004 15:15:49 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407162015.i6GKFwX10201@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 162014 SWOMCD SPC MCD 162014 AZZ000-162245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1711 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0314 PM CDT FRI JUL 16 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/N-CENTRAL AZ CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 162014Z - 162245Z AREAS OF CENTRAL AZ ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH...WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT. POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS FOR LOCALIZED HVY RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF 2"/HR ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF N-CENTRAL AZ DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. AT 20Z...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO BECOME INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS FROM NWRN YAVAPAI COUNTY ESEWD ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM. MORNING SOUNDINGS INDICATED PW VALUES OF 1.72" AT PHX AND 1.54" AT TUS...WITH MOISTURE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE VALUES UP TO 2500 J/KG OVER THE MTNS EAST OF PHX AT 20Z. SYNOPTICALLY...AREA IS LOCATED WEST OF A 500MB ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER NM. THIS IS SUPPORTING ELY TO SELY 3-6KM FLOW ON FGZ VAD WIND PROFILE. STORMS AT THE PRESENT TIME ARE MOVING ALONG/PARALLEL TO THE MTNS. HOWEVER...CONTINUED HEATING IN THE VALLEYS...WHERE SFC TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY REACHED 100+ IN THE PHX METRO AREA...SHOULD ALLOW FOR PROPAGATION OF CELLS AND STORM OUTFLOW WWD INTO THE VALLEY/BASINS OF CENTRAL AZ BY EVENING. SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AROUND 40F SHOULD SUPPORT SOME LOCALLY STRONG TO SEVERE WINDS GIVEN ABOVE SCENARIO...AND MAY WARRANT WW ISSUANCE WITHIN THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS. OTHER THREAT WILL BE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN GIVEN SLOW STORM MOTIONS PARALLEL TO THE RIM...AND ALSO FROM PRESCOTT NWWD ACROSS WRN YAVAPAI COUNTY. HIGH PW VALUES AND TRAINING OF CELLS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO LOCALIZED AREAS OF 2"+ HOURLY RAINFALL RATES IN THESE AREAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. ..BANACOS.. 07/16/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...VEF... 32531082 32501202 33141317 34201362 35001386 35521355 35651191 35371140 34971096 34451042 34291027 33780987 33160981 32530992 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 16 20:38:55 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 16 Jul 2004 15:38:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407162039.i6GKd3X19688@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 162038 SWOMCD SPC MCD 162037 MSZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-162230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1712 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0337 PM CDT FRI JUL 16 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN/SERN OK AND CENTRAL/SRN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 162037Z - 162230Z A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINTAINED IN UPCOMING DAY 1 OUTLOOK ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SERN AR. NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ACROSS ERN OK/WRN AR DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES MCV NEAR THE S-CENTRAL KS/N-CENTRAL OK BORDER CONTINUES TO MOVE SEWD AT 25 KT. AIR MASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE SE OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS ERN OK/WRN AR...WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 90S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S. MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG AND LESSENING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT AS MCV MIGRATES SEWD INTO THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. NWLY DEEP-LAYER FLOW...WITH SFC-6KM SHEAR OF 30-35KT...SHOULD SUPPORT A FORWARD PROPAGATING BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS...GIVEN INITIATION...SEWD INTO CENTRAL/SRN AR THIS EVENING...WITH DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY THE PRIMARY THREAT. ..BANACOS.. 07/16/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...OUN... 35439593 35669496 35619285 35499211 34569096 33979094 33319122 33219207 33309364 34169556 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 16 22:02:23 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 16 Jul 2004 17:02:23 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407162202.i6GM2SX17946@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 162201 SWOMCD SPC MCD 162201 COZ000-NMZ000-170030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1713 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0501 PM CDT FRI JUL 16 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN CO FRONT RANGE CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 162201Z - 170030Z POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WITH HOURLY RATES APPROACHING 1.5-2 INCHES/HOUR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD TSTMS ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE CO ROCKIES AND ADJACENT FRONT RANGE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THIS ACTIVITY IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEP PLUME OF MOISTURE ORIGINATING FROM THE ERN PACIFIC/GULF OF CA WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING PW VALUES OF 1.3-1.5 INCHES. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ELY FLOW OBSERVED THROUGH THE LOWEST 1.5KM ON CURRENT PUEBLO VWP SHOULD TEND TO VEER TO SELY THROUGH 17/06Z...HOWEVER UPSLOPE COMPONENT SHOULD STILL MAINTAIN REGION OF DEEP ASCENT ALONG FRONT RANGE. CURRENT AND FORECAST STORM MOTIONS INDICATE A SLOW SWD MOVEMENT WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL BEING THE CNTRL/SRN CO FRONT RANGE WHERE STORM TRAINING WILL BE MOST LIKELY. ..MEAD.. 07/16/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...ABQ...GJT... 37090635 38430641 39680549 40410474 39930372 38520380 37040422 36580523 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 16 22:30:46 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 16 Jul 2004 17:30:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407162230.i6GMUpX27019@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 162230 SWOMCD SPC MCD 162229 NDZ000-SDZ000-170000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1714 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0529 PM CDT FRI JUL 16 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 162229Z - 170000Z POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST WITH DEVELOPING STORMS. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED. RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A COUPLE OF CONFLUENCE ZONES BECOMING BETTER DEFINED ACROSS THE AREA...ONE FROM NEAR P24 INTO S-CNTRL SASKATCHEWAN...AND THE OTHER FROM NW OF MBG TO NEAR SDY. A STORM HAS RECENTLY INITIATED ON THE FORMER OVER MOUNTRAIL COUNTY IN NWRN ND. TSTMS MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SEWD THROUGH SRN SASKATCHEWAN ENHANCES MESOSCALE ASCENT ALONG THESE SURFACE FEATURES. RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.5-8 C/KM ARE CONTRIBUTING TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG. IF STORMS CAN BECOME SUSTAINED...PRESENCE OF 40-50KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. LOCAL PROXIMITY OF LARGER-SCALE RIDGE AXIS MAY TEND TO LIMIT OVERALL BOUNDARY-LAYER CONVERGENCE...SUGGESTING THAT STORMS MAY REMAIN ISOLATED OR NOT ABLE TO FULLY REALIZE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR/INSTABILITY. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED...HOWEVER. ..MEAD.. 07/16/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR... 49000404 49020100 45899984 45920291 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 17 00:55:02 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 16 Jul 2004 19:55:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407170055.i6H0t7X02711@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 162345 SWOMCD SPC MCD 162344 MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-170045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1716 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0644 PM CDT FRI JUL 16 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AR/NERN LA AND CNTRL/SRN MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 648... VALID 162344Z - 170045Z POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF WW AREA FOR THE NEXT HOUR SO. AN ADDITIONAL... POSSIBLY MORE ORGANIZED THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF AR/NRN LA INTO WRN MS. SYNTHESIS OF VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE REGION...TWO OF WHICH WERE LOCATED FROM FAR SRN MS /N OF GPT/ NWWD INTO NERN LA /E OF MLU/ TO W OF GLH...AND ANOTHER FROM S OF GWO TO SW OF LIT. THOUGH WIDESPREAD TSTM ACTIVITY HAS LARGELY STABILIZED MUCH OF REMAINING WW AREA...AIRMASS TO THE W ACROSS CNTRL/SRN AR SWD ACROSS MUCH OF LA HAS NOT BEEN OVERTURNED WITH MLCAPES STILL AROUND 2500-3500 J/KG. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT REGION AHEAD OF MCV /CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN OK/ MAY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PARTS OF AR/NRN LA INTO WRN MS. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS HAVE LIMITED TSTM ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE SO FAR TODAY...HOWEVER DEVELOPING WLY LLJ ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT MAY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT DEEP CONVERGENCE ALONG AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TO INITIATE DEEP CONVECTION. IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 30-40KTS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. WW 648 WILL LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT THE TOP OF THE HOUR...HOWEVER CONDITIONS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW RE-ISSUANCE LATER THIS EVENING. ..MEAD.. 07/16/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MOB...MEG...JAN...LIX...LZK...LCH...SHV... 34379277 34419119 33919099 33459064 33299015 33368922 31288876 31279195  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 17 01:59:10 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 16 Jul 2004 20:59:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407170159.i6H1xFX21312@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 170158 SWOMCD SPC MCD 170158 AZZ000-170230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1717 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0858 PM CDT FRI JUL 16 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/WRN AZ CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 649... VALID 170158Z - 170230Z SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE VERY LOW OVER WW 649...WITH HEAVY RAIN BEING THE MAIN THREAT THROUGH 03Z. PER COORDINATION WITH WFOS PSR/TWC...WW 649 WILL BE CANCELLED AT 02Z. CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO MOVE SWWD ACROSS SRN/WRN AZ...AND ADDITIONAL ISOLATED BRIEFLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT HOUR...ESPECIALLY WHERE THIS OUTFLOW INTERSECTS OTHER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. HEAVY RAIN APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT GIVEN HIGH PW VALUES...SLOW CELL MOTIONS AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/CELL MERGERS WHICH WILL OCCUR IN THE SAME LOCATIONS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS OVER WRN MARICOPA AND ERN LA PAZ/YUMA COUNTIES. ..CROSBIE.. 07/17/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...VEF... 32091359 33621382 34571328 34531267 33291265 32681211 32681093 32121105 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 17 02:19:20 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 16 Jul 2004 21:19:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407170219.i6H2JOX26751@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 170218 SWOMCD SPC MCD 170218 MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-170345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1718 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0918 PM CDT FRI JUL 16 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN AR INTO NRN LA AND WRN MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 170218Z - 170345Z WW MAY BE REQUIRED WITHIN THE HOUR FOR DEVELOPING TSTMS. REGIONAL RADAR AND LDS DISPLAY INDICATE TSTMS RAPIDLY DEVELOPING E AND SE OF LIT WITH AN ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN SHALLOWER CONVECTION TO THE W OVER W-CNTRL AR. TSTMS APPEAR TO BE FORMING NEAR INTERSECTION SW-NE BOUNDARY AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ORIENTED MORE N-S OVER ERN AR INTO NERN LA. RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT 00Z LIT THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE STILL REMAINS REPRESENTATIVE WITH MLCAPES OF 2000-2500 J/KG. PERSISTENT WAA PATTERN OBSERVED ON AREA PROFILERS/VWPS SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED GROWTH OF EVOLVING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER...WITH POSSIBLE EVOLUTION INTO FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS THAT WOULD MOVE SSEWD ALONG COOL SIDE OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN PLACE FROM SERN AR INTO SWRN MS/SERN LA. GIVEN THE WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES...IT APPEARS THAT DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH DEVELOPING STORMS. ..MEAD.. 07/17/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LIX...LZK...LCH...SHV... 34899306 35099054 31208944 30949170 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 17 02:31:51 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 16 Jul 2004 21:31:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407170232.i6H2WIX30218@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 170231 SWOMCD SPC MCD 170230 AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-170400- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1719 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0930 PM CDT FRI JUL 16 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SRN NV AND PARTS OF SERN CA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 650... VALID 170230Z - 170400Z ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...AS NEW DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES ON PRIMARY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING WWD ACROSS CLARK AND FAR ERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES. ADDITIONALLY...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WHERE TWO OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MERGE IN THE VICINITY OF LAS VEGAS. THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT MAY REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY LOW THAT WW 650 COULD BE CANCELLED EARLY. LATEST SFC/RADAR DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTION OVER NWRN AZ MOVING WWD ACROSS CLARK COUNTY NV AND FAR ERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY CA. DESPITE WELL DEFINED CB/S ON RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE OUTFLOW OVER CLARK COUNTY...WEAKENING RADAR TRENDS ALONG WITH DIURNAL LOSS OF HEATING/STABILIZATION SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT TO ONLY ISOLATED/BRIEF OCCURRENCES FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. IF CURRENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS CONTINUE THEN WW 650 MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY. ..CROSBIE.. 07/17/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SLC...PSR...VEF... 34311591 36361598 37061577 37221463 37161316 36911314 36611436 35561458 34871399 34291391 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 17 03:06:20 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 16 Jul 2004 22:06:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407170306.i6H36OX06634@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 170305 SWOMCD SPC MCD 170305 NDZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-170400- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1720 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1005 PM CDT FRI JUL 16 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MT/WRN ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 651... VALID 170305Z - 170400Z OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS DIMINISHING AND WW WILL LIKELY BE CANCELLED WITHIN THE HOUR. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND RESULTANT DECREASE IN LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...INSTABILITY HAS DIMINISHED OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO...LEADING TO A RAPID DEMISE IN ONGOING STORMS OVER ERN MT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT MAIN AREA OF FORCING AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH/MCV IS CURRENTLY SHIFTING SEWD ACROSS SWRN MANITOBA INTO CNTRL ND WHERE ENVIRONMENT IS CONSIDERABLY MORE STABLE. THEREFORE...IT APPEARS THAT OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT HAS DIMINISHED SUCH THAT WW 651 MAY BE CANCELLED WITHIN THE HOUR. ..MEAD.. 07/17/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...TFX... 47660936 48240530 47920128 46090127 45050938 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 17 07:19:39 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 17 Jul 2004 02:19:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407170719.i6H7JhX07150@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 170719 SWOMCD SPC MCD 170718 MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-170815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1721 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0218 AM CDT SAT JUL 17 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AR / NERN LA / MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 652... VALID 170718Z - 170815Z ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF WW...SEVERE THREAT OVER MUCH OF WW HAS DECREASED. WW WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 17/08Z. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONGEST STORMS ACROSS SERN AR ATTM...WITHIN AXIS OF MORE UNSTABLE AIR WHICH EXTENDS SWD INTO LA / FAR SWRN MS. MORE STABLE AIRMASS -- AND THUS WEAKER CONVECTION -- IS INDICATED ACROSS THE MS RIVER INTO W CENTRAL MS...WHERE EARLIER CONVECTION OCCURRED. ALTHOUGH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY EXISTS ACROSS SERN AR / NERN LA AND SWRN MS -- ROUGHLY THE WRN HALF OF WW...DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD IS SOMEWHAT WEAK -- PARTICULARLY AT MID-LEVELS WHERE ONLY 15 TO 20 KT FLOW IS INDICATED. THIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT LARGE-SCALE CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY UNFAVORABLE FOR ANY MORE THAN ISOLATED / MARGINALLY-SEVERE STORMS. IF AN ORGANIZED COLD POOL -- AND AN ASSOCIATED LINE OF STORMS ALONG LEADING EDGE -- COULD EVOLVE FROM STORMS OVER SERN AR ATTM...THREAT FOR GUSTY / MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS COULD INCREASE SOMEWHAT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS REGION FOR ANY MESOSCALE INDICATIONS OF AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT...BUT ATTM NEW WW IS NOT EXPECTED AFTER THE 17/08Z EXPIRATION OF WW 652. ..GOSS.. 07/17/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LZK...LCH...SHV... 34239179 33529110 31439017 30979098 31169190 32469267 33839262 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 17 18:39:17 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 17 Jul 2004 13:39:17 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407171839.i6HIdJX01550@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 171838 SWOMCD SPC MCD 171838 COZ000-172145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1722 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0138 PM CDT SAT JUL 17 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CO FRONT RANGE AND CENTRAL CO MTNS CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 171838Z - 172145Z LOCALIZED THREAT OF 2"/HR RAINFALL RATES WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CO FRONT RANGE AND ADJACENT AREAS THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. AT 18Z...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD OVER THE MTNS OF CENTRAL CO EWD TOWARD THE FRONT RANGE BETWEEN COS AND BOULDER WITH DIURNAL HEATING. MOIST ENVIRONMENT IS RESULTING IN LOW TO MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA /MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG AT 18Z/. SYNOPTICALLY...AREA IS LOCATED NEAR STRONG 500MB RIDGE AXIS LOCATED FROM CENTRAL NM NNWWD ACROSS WRN CO AND INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. MID-LEVEL MOIST PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH THE SW MONSOON HAS BECOME ENTRAINED WITH THE RIDGE...WITH 700MB DEWPOINTS IN THE 6-8C RANGE FROM THE SRN GREAT BASIN EWD ACROSS MUCH OF CO. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM 24 HOURS AGO AT DENVER...BUT REMAIN SUFFICIENT NEAR 1.25" FOR HEAVY RAIN CONCERNS GIVEN EXTREMELY SLOW STORM MOTIONS. PROFILER AT PLATTEVILLE INDICATES MEAN SFC-6KM WIND SPEED OF 2 KT...WHICH SHOULD REMAIN LOW THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN UPPER RIDGE LOCATION. MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND SLOW STORM MOTIONS WILL LIKELY YIELD LOCALIZED RAINFALL RATES UP TO 2"/HR WITH STRONGER CORES THROUGH THE PEAK HEATING PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. ..BANACOS.. 07/17/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...GJT... 38340454 39840466 40180489 40290530 40090720 39560717 38890628 38610597 37830553 37560533 37320501 37340470 37860445 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 17 18:49:18 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 17 Jul 2004 13:49:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407171849.i6HInJX03933@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 171848 SWOMCD SPC MCD 171848 GAZ000-172015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1723 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0148 PM CDT SAT JUL 17 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 171848Z - 172015Z ...A FEW PULSE SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SERN GA THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AS THREAT SHOULD BE ISOLATED AND SEVERE WIND THREAT WITHIN STORMS SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED. SUNNY SKIES INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO NEAR 90 DEGREES. ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT STEEP...DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S ALONG WITH DIURNAL HEATING WAS YIELDING MLCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG. ALTHOUGH THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS AT 20-25 KT...DEEP WLY TROPOSPHERIC WINDS AT 10-20 KT AND A WEAK COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THE EWD MOVING STORMS MAY BE SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW SHORT LIVED DOWNBURSTS. ..IMY.. 07/17/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE... 30918195 30788353 31278383 33098351 33208310 33078228 32588206 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 17 22:03:11 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 17 Jul 2004 17:03:11 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407172203.i6HM3IX25051@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 172202 SWOMCD SPC MCD 172201 OKZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-180030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1724 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0501 PM CDT SAT JUL 17 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN CO...WRN OK PANHANDLE...WRN TX PANHANDLE...AND NERN NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 172201Z - 180030Z ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF SERN CO...THE WRN OK/TX PANHANDLES...AND NERN NM. LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER CORES. LIMITED COVERAGE OF SEVERE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE WW. AT 21Z...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION SWWD INTO ERN CO...WITH A MOIST LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW PRESENT SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS INTO SERN CO/NERN NM. UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL NM NWWD INTO THE NRN ROCKIES IS SUPPORTING NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW OF 25-30 KT ACROSS ERN CO SEWD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE...AND SFC-6KM SHEAR VALUES OF 30-35 KT. PRESENCE OF LOW 60S DEWPOINTS ACROSS SERN CO...FAR NERN NM...AND THE PANHANDLES IS CONTRIBUTING TO 100MB MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG AND MINIMAL CIN DURING THE PEAK HEATING PERIOD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS REGION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD SUSTAIN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND STORM CLUSTERS MOVING SSEWD FROM SERN CO ACROSS NERN NM AND THE WRN PANHANDLES THROUGH THIS EVENING. A FEW EMBEDDED SEVERE/LONG-LIVED CELLS MAY CONTAIN LARGE HAIL OR LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS WITH WET MICROBURSTS. HOWEVER...WEAK LAPSE RATES 6-6.5 C/KM AND HIGH WBZ HEIGHTS SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL EXTENT OF ACTIVITY EXCEEDING SEVERE LIMITS. ..BANACOS.. 07/17/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AMA...PUB...ABQ... 35270205 35080351 35550475 36410512 37590506 37780440 37900298 37390211 36480202 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 17 23:26:26 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 17 Jul 2004 18:26:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407172326.i6HNQXX13283@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 172325 SWOMCD SPC MCD 172325 LAZ000-TXZ000-180130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1725 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0625 PM CDT SAT JUL 17 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN TX THROUGH NRN AND CNTRL LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 172325Z - 180130Z SOME THREAT FOR ISOLATED WIND GUSTS EXISTS WITH STRONGER STORMS DEVELOPING SWD THROUGH NRN LA. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP WWD THROUGH ERN AND CNTRL TX. THREAT MAY PERSIST THROUGH MID EVENING BEFORE ACTIVITY BEGINS AN OVERALL DECREASE WITH THE ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING. UNLESS STORMS BEGIN TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZING INTO LINES OR A LARGER CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. THIS EVENING A WEAK SURFACE FRONT/TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NRN LA WSWWD THROUGH CNTRL TX NEAR KILEEN. THE ATMOSPHERE S OF THIS BOUNDARY HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE AROUND 2500 J/KG. HOWEVER... WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES HAVE RESULTED IN LAPSE RATES WITH VALUES GENERALLY AOB 6.5 C/KM IN THE 3-6 KM LAYER. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW TOWERING CUMULUS INCREASING ALONG THE BOUNDARY ACROSS CNTRL THROUGH ERN TX AND ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. WV IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS AN MCV MOVING SEWD THROUGH NRN TX...AND ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY BEGIN TO INTERSECT TX PORTION OF FRONT WITHIN NEXT COUPLE HOURS. MODEST NWLY FLOW ALOFT WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR GENERALLY AOB 30 KT WILL SUPPORT MULTICELL STORMS. CAP INCREASES WITH WRN EXTENT INTO TX ...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE WHICH MAY LIMIT COVERAGE TO ISOLATED OR WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS. ..DIAL.. 07/17/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX... 31139724 31709531 32539300 32189185 31059229 30469554 30459703 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 18 22:08:00 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 18 Jul 2004 17:08:00 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407182207.i6IM7vX24865@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 182207 SWOMCD SPC MCD 182206 MNZ000-NDZ000-190030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1726 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0506 PM CDT SUN JUL 18 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND THROUGH NWRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 182206Z - 190030Z THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM PARTS OF ERN ND THROUGH NW MN BY 23-00Z. SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL...ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN INITIAL THREATS. WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THIS EVENING A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NERN ND SWWD TO A SURFACE LOW IN S CNTRL ND. A BOUNDARY INDUCED BY EARLIER CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION OVER MN EXTENDS N-S ALONG THE ND-MN BORDER. THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE ACROSS ERN ND WITH MLCAPE FROM 2500 TO 3000 J/KG. THE THETA-E GRADIENT IS SHARP E OF THE N-S BOUNDARY INTO WRN MN WHERE MLCAPE DROPS OFF TO LESS THAN 1500 J/KG. MODEST SWLY LOW LEVEL JET MAY INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING SEWD INTO ND THIS EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN DESTABILIZATION EWD WITH TIME INTO NWRN MN. STORMS MAY DEVELOP NEXT HOUR OR TWO IN CONVERGENCE ZONE ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS NERN ND. SHEAR PROFILES EXHIBIT VEERING IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY FROM 100 TO 150 M2/S2 AND 0-6 KM SHEAR 35 TO 40 KT...SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL INCREASE FURTHER AS THE LOW LEVEL JET UNDERGOES SOME STRENGTHENING THIS EVENING. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN ZONE OF INCREASING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND DESTABILIZATION OVER NWRN MN. ..DIAL.. 07/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... 46289800 47189921 47899828 48799738 48789633 47779553 46579603 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 18 23:14:13 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 18 Jul 2004 18:14:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407182314.i6INECX09118@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 182313 SWOMCD SPC MCD 182313 SDZ000-NEZ000-190115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1727 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0613 PM CDT SUN JUL 18 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN THROUGH CNTRL SD AND N CNTRL-NERN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 182313Z - 190115Z STORMS MAY INTENSIFY AS THEY DEVELOP SSEWD INTO CNTRL SD. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY ACROSS N CNTRL THROUGH WRN PART OF NE NEB. ISOLATED MOSTLY HIGH BASED STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MICROBURSTS WILL EXIST THROUGH MID EVENING. THIS EVENING ISOLATED HIGH BASED STORMS WERE DEVELOPING IN VICINITY OF A BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SRN ND SWWD THROUGH NWRN SD. STRONG MIXING S OF THIS BOUNDARY HAS RESULTED IN INVERTED-V BOUNDARY LAYER WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 100 AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS NEAR 50 ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF SD. A N-S TROUGH ALSO EXTENDS ACROSS CNTRL SD FROM NEAR MOBRIDGE SWD TO NEAR PIERRE. E OF THIS BOUNDARY...RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONGER INSTABILITY EXIST WITH AN AXIS OF MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG. STORMS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING IN N CNTRL SD MAY INTENSIFY AS THEY DEVELOP SSEWD INTO THE WRN EDGE OF THE STRONGER INSTABILITY NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHER CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ALONG AN E-W BOUNDARY FROM N CNTRL NEB WWD THROUGH NWRN NEB. THE CONVECTION ALONG THE ERN PART OF THIS BOUNDARY IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF THE STRONGER INSTABILITY. THIS ACTIVITY MAY ALS INTENSIFY AS IT DEVELOPS SSEWD NEXT FEW HOURS. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THIS AREA ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED AND SHOULD BEGIN AN OVERALL DECREASE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS LATER THIS EVENING. ..DIAL.. 07/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR... 43450050 44440148 44970178 45410136 45840063 45519993 44099913 41699833 41419941 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 19 01:54:26 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 18 Jul 2004 20:54:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407190154.i6J1sOX17665@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 190153 SWOMCD SPC MCD 190153 SDZ000-NEZ000-190400- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1728 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0853 PM CDT SUN JUL 18 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SD THROUGH WRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 653... VALID 190153Z - 190400Z THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND EXPECTED TO PERSIST NEXT COUPLE HOURS...MAINLY WITH SUPERCELLS MOVING SEWD FROM SERN SD INTO EXTREME WRN MN. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING FARTHER EAST ACROSS NRN MN. THIS EVENING ISOLATED SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOPED ALONG A NE-SW ORIENTED BOUNDARY CONTINUE SE THROUGH SERN ND AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MIGHT EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO EXTREME WRN MN. THE STORMS REMAIN IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL VEERING...0-1 KM SRH FROM 150 TO 200 M2/S2 AND 0-6 KM SHEAR FROM 40 TO 50 KT. STORMS ARE ALSO CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE AXIS OF STRONGEST INSTABILITY. THE 00Z ABERDEEN SOUNDING SUGGESTS AS THE STORMS CONTINUE SEWD...THEY WILL EVENTUALLY ENCOUNTER AN INCREASINGLY HOSTILE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WITH INCREASING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...ESPECIALLY AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO COOL. THE MODEST 20-25 WSWLY LOW LEVEL JET MAY STRENGTHEN A LITTLE FURTHER AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN NWLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES SEWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. THIS WILL ENHANCE LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND LIFT ON COOL SIDE OF N-S GRADIENT ALONG THE ND-MN BORDER...AND PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS NRN AND CNTRL MN LATER THIS EVENING. ..DIAL.. 07/19/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR... 43450050 44440148 44970178 45410136 45840063 45519993 44099913 41699833 41419941 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 19 03:44:53 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 18 Jul 2004 22:44:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407190344.i6J3inX15636@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 190344 SWOMCD SPC MCD 190343 SDZ000-NEZ000-190445- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1729 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1043 PM CDT SUN JUL 18 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN ND...NRN AND CNTRL MN AND NERN SD CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 653... VALID 190343Z - 190445Z SURFACE BASED SUPERCELLS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS SERN ND. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP FARTHER EAST ACROSS NRN MN WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...BUT THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ELEVATED WITH THREAT OF MAINLY HAIL. WW 653 WILL LIKELY BE CANCELLED BY 04Z. SUPERCELL STORMS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS THEY ENCOUNTER AN INCREASINGLY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ACROSS SERN ND INTO NRN SD. FOCUS FOR NEW DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY SHIFT EAST INTO MN WHERE WEAKER CAP AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION MAY PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF NEW STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL. ..DIAL.. 07/19/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR... 43450050 44440148 44970178 45410136 45840063 45519993 44099913 41699833 41419941 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 19 17:28:29 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 19 Jul 2004 12:28:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407191728.i6JHSRX15529@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 191727 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191726 ILZ000-IAZ000-WIZ000-MNZ000-192000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1730 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1226 PM CDT MON JUL 19 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MN...SWRN WI AND ERN/CNTRL IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 191726Z - 192000Z SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE ACROSS SERN MN AND ERN/CNTRL IA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A WEATHER WATCH MAY BE NEEDED BY 21Z. A CLUSTER OF BACKBUILDING ELEVATED TSTMS HAS BEEN MAINTAINED THROUGH THE MORNING ACROSS WCNTRL WI ALONG THE NOSE OF A SWLY LOW LEVEL JET. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS WILL SUSTAIN A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY ALONG THE WI/MN BORDER/ MS RVR VLY INTO MID-AFTERNOON. MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS A 1007 MB LOW VCNTY KMSP WITH A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING SWWD INTO NWRN IA. WARM SECTOR BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND BOUNDARY ALONG THE MS RVR WILL CONTINUE TO HEAT THIS AFTERNOON. AIR MASS WILL BE CAPPED THROUGH ABOUT 21Z...BUT RUC40 FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT A SURFACE PARCEL WITH 85/70 TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT RESPECTIVELY WILL RESULT IN A CAP BREECH. GIVEN LOCALIZED SURFACE CONVERGENCE VCNTY THE BOUNDARIES/LOW...SURFACE BASED INITIATION WILL REMAIN LIKELY OVER SERN MN BY 21Z. UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT INTO ONE OR MORE MCS/S WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS ERN/CNTRL IA. GIVEN MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7 DEGREES C/KM AND A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...MLCAPES WILL RANGE FROM 2500-3500 J/KG AND WILL SET THE STAGE FOR RAPID TSTM DEVELOPMENT. SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW BENEATH MODEST NWLY FLOW ALOFT /40+ KTS/ WILL CREATE 0-6KM SHEAR OF BETTER THAN 40 KTS AND WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ISOLD VERY LARGE HAIL /2-2.5 INCHES/ MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER SUPERCELLS. ISOLD TORNADOES COULD ALSO OCCUR WITH THE MORE DISCRETE CELLS/EARLY DEVELOPMENT...THOUGH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SOMEWHAT WEAK. ..RACY.. 07/19/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX... 41329388 44679413 44919292 44159159 42569046 41779033 41319119 41349241 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 19 18:02:57 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 19 Jul 2004 13:02:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407191802.i6JI2qX30362@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 191802 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191801 NCZ000-SCZ000-192030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1731 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0101 PM CDT MON JUL 19 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CAROLINAS CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 191801Z - 192030Z WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS APPROACHING SEVERE LIMITS THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ERN CAROLINAS. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. A FEW TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A WEAK SURFACE FRONT/LEE TROUGH SITUATED ACROSS CNTRL SECTIONS OF NC/SC. AIR MASS VCNTY/EAST OF THESE TSTMS HAS BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE WITH LIFTED INDICES NEAR MINUS 7C. TSTMS MAY BECOME MORE FOCUSED ACROSS THE ERN CAROLINAS AS UPSTREAM MIDLEVEL TROUGH AXIS TRANSLATES TOWARD THE COAST. 30-40 KT H5 WINDS ON SE SIDE OF THIS TROUGH MAY AUGMENT UPDRAFTS...AND A FEW OF THE TSTMS MAY BECOME STRONGER AS THEY MOVE TOWARD THE COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE OVERALL NEGATIVE FACTOR FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE THE SOMEWHAT WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...MAGNITUDE OF DRY AIR IN THE MIDLEVELS MAY RESULT IN ISOLD WIND GUSTS APPROACHING SEVERE LIMITS WITH THE STRONGER TSTMS. ..RACY.. 07/19/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE... 33558099 35007949 36057808 35747653 34627768 32778067 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 19 18:17:05 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 19 Jul 2004 13:17:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407191816.i6JIGxX04241@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 191816 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191816 MTZ000-IDZ000-192045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1732 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0116 PM CDT MON JUL 19 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN ID AND WRN MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 191816Z - 192045Z THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS NRN ID INTO FAR WRN MT DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH LONGER-LIVED/STRONGER CELLS. UPPER RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EWD AND FLATTEN IN RESPONSE TO STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NEWD INTO SRN BRITISH COLUMBIA. LEADING EDGE OF MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS CURRENTLY TRAVERSING NRN ID IS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING LINE OF THUNDERSTORM CELLS ACROSS THE BITTERROOT RANGE. LARGE-SCALE FORCING WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN A BAND OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE PEAK HEATING PERIOD INTO WRN MT...WITH MOVEMENT ENEWD AT 15-20 KT. ETA FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SFC-6KM SHEAR OF 25-30 KT...WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW LONGER-LIVED STORMS. INSTABILITY IS PRESENTLY LIMITED ACROSS FAR WRN MT /100MB MLCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG / BUT SHOULD INCREASE TO 1000-1500 J/KG WITH CONTINUED SURFACE HEATING /TEMPS WARMING INTO THE 80S/. WBZ HEIGHTS AROUND 8 KFT SHOULD SUPPORT SEVERE HAIL WITH STRONGER CELLS AS STORMS PROGRESS THROUGH NRN ID AND INTO FAR WRN MT DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ..BANACOS.. 07/19/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TFX...MSO...OTX... 46031626 46921639 47501654 48081668 48551658 48831577 48961449 48631372 48201339 47221277 46751258 46421265 46091274 45761304 45571331 45421368 45281426 45201512 45401595 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 19 19:07:52 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 19 Jul 2004 14:07:52 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407191907.i6JJ7mX29519@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 191907 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191906 NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-192130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1733 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0206 PM CDT MON JUL 19 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CO FRONT RANGE AND ADJACENT PLAINS...AND SERN WY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 191906Z - 192130Z ISOLATED DRY MICROBURST POTENTIAL EXISTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF CO NWD INTO SERN WY. LOCALIZED NATURE OF DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE WW ISSUANCE. AT 1850Z...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE FROM SERN WY SSWWD ACROSS THE CO FRONT RANGE. REGION IS LOCATED JUST NE OF UPPER HIGH CENTER...BUT AMPLE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABILITY /700MB DEWPOINTS 4-6C/ IS YIELDING 100MB MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG WITH DIURNAL HEATING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. PLATTEVILLE PROFILER INDICATES DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW OF LESS THAN 10 KT...WITH A SLOW SEWD DRIFT OF THUNDERSTORM CELLS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN WEAK FLOW REGIME AND CAPPING INVERSION ACROSS THE ADJACENT PLAINS...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD NOT PERSIST FAR FROM ELEVATED TERRAIN. POTENTIAL FOR DRY MICROBURSTS WILL EXIST AS STORMS DISSIPATE EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE THROUGH THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY AS SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS INCREASE TO GREATER THAN 45F BY LATE AFTERNOON. RUC MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE DOWNDRAFT CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG AT DEN BETWEEN 22-01Z. WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND SHORT-LIVED NATURE OF INDIVIDUAL STORMS SHOULD MITIGATE THREAT OF SEVERE HAIL. ..BANACOS.. 07/19/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...CYS... 40370548 41510503 42430489 42550423 41100390 40490369 40050370 39570372 38180449 38180485 38710525 39250556 39700565 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 19 20:28:04 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 19 Jul 2004 15:28:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407192028.i6JKS5X03883@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 192026 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192026 ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-192230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1734 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0326 PM CDT MON JUL 19 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IA...SWRN WI AND NWRN IL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 655... VALID 192026Z - 192230Z THE SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE TORNADO WATCH. ORIGINAL ELEVATED SUPERCELL THAT GAVE TWO-INCH HAILSTONES AT THE LA CROSSE WEATHER OFFICE WEAKENED...BUT OTHER TSTMS HAVE FORMED ALONG ITS WRN FLANK. CHARACTER OF RAPIDLY COOLING CLOUD TOPS AND EXPANDING ANVILS SUGGEST THIS NEW ACTIVITY IS MORE THAN LIKELY SURFACE BASED. RECENT MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS A THERMAL RIDGE /UPPER 80S/ ACROSS ERN IA AND A RUC40 PROXIMITY SOUNDING SUGGEST LITTLE IF ANY INHIBITION REMAINING. STRONGEST MASS CONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY FOCUS ALONG WRN PERIPHERY OF THE CURRENT TSTMS FROM NERN IA SWD TO ALONG/WEST OF THE MS RVR FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. VSBL SATELLITE SHOWS A SHARP WRN EDGE TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER CU FIELD ALONG INTERSTATE 35 AND THIS LIKELY DENOTES ERN EDGE OF THE STRONGER CAP. EAST OF THE MS RIVER...TSTM BLOWOFF HAS AFFECTED BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AND THUS CONVECTIVE INITIATION POTENTIAL. WILL MAINTAIN THE WATCH ACROSS NWRN IL...BUT HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF DEEP MOIST CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS ERN/CNTRL IA THROUGH THE EVENING. GIVEN THE SSWLY LOW LEVEL WINDS BENEATH MODEST AND SHARPLY VEERING MIDLEVEL FLOW...SUBSTANTIAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR EXISTS ACROSS THE WEATHER WATCH FOR SUPERCELLS. THIS COMBINED WITH THE STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE SUGGEST THAT HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. ISOLD TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS WELL GIVEN SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL VEERING AND MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY. ..RACY.. 07/19/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX... 40689218 43439274 43409000 40718976 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 19 21:10:19 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 19 Jul 2004 16:10:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407192110.i6JLADX23944@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 192109 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192109 NEZ000-SDZ000-192315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1735 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0409 PM CDT MON JUL 19 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/WRN NEB AND FAR SWRN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 192109Z - 192315Z ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOCALIZED NATURE OF SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE WW ISSUANCE. SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 FROM BBW WNWWD TO THE SWRN SD/NEB PANHANDLE. VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES TOWERING CU HAVE BECOME BETTER DEFINED ALONG SURFACE TROUGH FROM BBW TO CDR. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS FIELDS INDICATE A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN ABSOLUTE CINH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL WY EWD INTO CENTRAL NEB...WHICH MAY PERMIT FOR ISOLATED CONVECTIVE STORMS ALONG ESE-WNW ORIENTED CONVERGENCE ZONE/SURFACE TROUGH DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. OTHERWISE...STORMS SPREADING SLOWLY EWD FROM FAR ERN WY WILL AFFECT THE NEB PANHANDLE NWD INTO THE BLACK HILLS AREA. SYNOPTICALLY...REGION IS LOCATED ON NERN PERIPHERY OF STRONG FOUR CORNERS UPPER RIDGE. FLOW FIELDS ARE NOT STRONG...WLY AT 5-10KT PER AREA VAD WIND DATA AND PROFILERS FROM THE SFC THRU 5KM AGL. THIS HAS RESULTED IN WARM 700MB TEMPERATURES ADVECTING EWD ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL NEB DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS /AROUND +14C/. ANTICIPATE A FEW SLOW MOVING T-STORMS IN DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER ENVIRONMENT /SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AROUND 50F/...WITH THE CHANCE OF HIGHLY LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH DRY MICROBURSTS. ..BANACOS.. 07/19/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...UNR...CYS... 40899919 40980038 41290261 41560335 41860370 42180392 42730398 44480390 44320240 43110139 42560044 42239953 42039903 41719858 41379851 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 19 21:51:17 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 19 Jul 2004 16:51:17 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407192151.i6JLpBX11553@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 192150 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192149 IDZ000-ORZ000-WAZ000-200015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1736 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0449 PM CDT MON JUL 19 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN ORE...SERN WA...AND NWRN ID CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 192149Z - 200015Z THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NERN ORE. ACTIVITY WILL PROGRESS NEWD AT 20-25 KT TOWARD SERN WA AND WRN/NWRN ID DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WW MAY BE REQUIRED. SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN 40-45KT 500MB FLOW CONTINUES NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL ORE AT 2130Z. FORCING PROVIDED BY THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S AND 100MB MLCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG HAS RESULTED IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COVERING THE ERN HALF OF ORE. PDT VAD INDICATES 40-50KT MID-UPPER LEVEL SSWLY FLOW...AND SFC-6KM SHEAR VALUES IN EXCESS OF 40KT. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...OF 7-8 C/KM IN 700-500MB LAYER PER RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS...SHOULD SUPPORT STRONG UPDRAFTS AND HAIL. CONDITIONS SUGGEST LONG-LIVED STORMS WITH THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL SPREADING NEWD TOWARD FAR SERN WA/WRN AND NWRN ID DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIOD. ..BANACOS.. 07/19/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MSO...BOI...OTX...PDT... 45281666 44641731 44041827 43932010 44172065 44502085 44842081 45582030 45852012 46741930 47251875 47581814 47731751 47751691 47571647 47331580 46731519 46221547 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 19 23:32:39 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 19 Jul 2004 18:32:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407192332.i6JNWWX19936@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 192331 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192331 WIZ000-MNZ000-200100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1737 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0631 PM CDT MON JUL 19 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...E CNTRL MN THROUGH NRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 192331Z - 200100Z STORMS MAY POSE SOME THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF ISOLATED TORNADO AS THEY DEVELOP SWD THROUGH NRN WI AND E CNTRL MN NEXT 2-3 HOURS. THIS EVENING AN E-W ORIENTED SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MI WWD THROUGH NRN WI. OTHER MORE SUBTLE BOUNDARIES ALSO EXIST FARTHER N ACROSS PARTS OF NE MN. THE ATMOSPHERE S OF THESE BOUNDARY REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. DESPITE PRESENCE OF SOME DIRECTIONAL LOW LEVEL SHEAR... OVERALL SHEAR MAGNITUDE IN THE LOWEST 3 KM REMAINS MODEST OWING TO ABSENCE OF A LOW LEVEL JET. THE 0-3 KM DIRECTIONAL SHEAR MAY DECREASE FURTHER AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING SWD THROUGH NRN WI. HOWEVER...SHEAR IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION. THE STRONGER STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO POSE SOME THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND...A BRIEF TORNADO AND POSSIBLY HAIL AS THEY DEVELOP SWD. OWING TO MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...OVERALL HAIL THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR PARTICULARLY HIGH AND TORNADO THREAT APPEARS LIMITED BY WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR. ..DIAL.. 07/19/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX... 45098862 45649198 46259275 46499213 46059016 45748821 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 20 00:25:14 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 19 Jul 2004 19:25:14 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407200025.i6K0P7X05981@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 200024 SWOMCD SPC MCD 200024 IDZ000-MTZ000-ORZ000-WAZ000-200200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1738 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0724 PM CDT MON JUL 19 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ORE...FAR SERN WA...CENTRAL ID...AND FAR WRN MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 656... VALID 200024Z - 200200Z CONTINUE WW. AT 21/0010Z...SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED OVER BAKER COUNTY ORE WITH OTHER SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EXTENDING FROM IDAHO COUNTY ID SWWD TO 40W BOI. CELL MOTION WAS GENERALLY 225/25 KT. MID-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT NNEWD ACROSS CENTRAL ORE...EMBEDDED IN BROADER BAND OF SWLY 40-45KT 500MB FLOW. THE 21Z RUC INDICATES MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND THERMAL TROUGHING MOVING ENEWD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA...WHICH SHOULD SUSTAIN LARGE-SCALE SUPPORT FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL ID AND INTO FAR WRN MT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. INSTABILITY REMAINS SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE CONVECTION...WITH AXIS OF 100MB MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG EXTENDING FROM FAR ERN ORE NEWD INTO WRN MT. COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S/...THREAT FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF SEVERE STORMS WILL GRADUAL SHIFT FROM NERN ORE INTO CENTRAL ID/FAR WRN MT THROUGH 03Z. ..BANACOS.. 07/20/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PIH...MSO...BOI...OTX...PDT...MFR... 42112017 45742016 48251475 44641469 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 20 18:11:13 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 20 Jul 2004 13:11:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407201813.i6KID3X15478@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 201810 SWOMCD SPC MCD 201809 WIZ000-202015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1739 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0109 PM CDT TUE JUL 20 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN-ERN WI CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 201809Z - 202015Z TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS NRN AND ERN WI THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER TSTMS...BUT A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. TSTMS HAVE BEGUN FORMING THIS AFTERNOON ALONG 1/ WEAK WARM FRONT AND 2/ DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES SITUATED ACROSS NRN WI. VSBL IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS THE CU FIELD BEGINNING TO SHARPEN VCNTY LAKE BREEZES IN ERN WI. AIR MASS HAS BECOME ESSENTIALLY UNCAPPED AND LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR TSTM INITIATION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO HEAT. STEEPEST MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES EXIST ALONG/WEST OF THE MS RVR PER MORNING/CURRENT PROXIMITY RUC SOUNDINGS. ALSO...VERTICAL SHEAR IS GENERALLY AOB 25 KTS. THESE MARGINAL PARAMETERS SUGGEST THAT THE TSTMS WILL MAINLY BE MULTICELLS AND SOMEWHAT SHORT-LIVED. ISOLD STRONG TSTMS MAY PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS OR HAIL... BUT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREATS APPEAR SUCH THAT A WW WILL NOT BE WARRANTED. ..RACY.. 07/20/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...MPX... 42638963 43799031 44529226 45679235 45709083 45428929 43978809 42678811 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 20 19:18:07 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 20 Jul 2004 14:18:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407201917.i6KJHwX10201@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 201917 SWOMCD SPC MCD 201916 IAZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-202115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1740 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0216 PM CDT TUE JUL 20 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN SD...NERN NEB...NWRN IA...EXTREME SWRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 201916Z - 202115Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON AND A WW APPEARS LIKELY BY 21Z. VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO. VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES CU FIELD BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED OVER N CENTRAL NEB FROM BLAINE INTO ROCK COUNTIES. OTHER CU FIELDS WERE DEVELOPING FARTHER N BETWEEN PIR AND HON. ENVIRONMENT IS BECOMING VERY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE NOW 2000-3000 J/KG E OF DRYLINE AND ALONG WARM FRONT WHERE DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 70S F. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S F ARE REQUIRED TO ERASE CIN. THEREFORE...MOST LIKELY AREA OF INITIATION WILL BE ALONG DRYLINE AND IN VICINITY OF SURFACE LOW WHERE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES ARE LOCATED. ENHANCED CONVERGENCE AS WELL AS RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WARM FRONT WILL FURTHER STRENGTHEN FORCING AND POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS. PRESENCE OF MID 70S F DEWPOINTS OVER SERN SD / ERN NEB AND WRN IA ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S F / LOWER 90S F SUGGEST SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL AS BOUNDARY LAYER RH WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY LOW. ..JEWELL.. 07/20/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR... 44669914 44449981 42899957 41709965 41479591 43889573 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 20 20:31:23 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 20 Jul 2004 15:31:23 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407202031.i6KKVDX14301@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202028 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202028 SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-202230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1741 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0328 PM CDT TUE JUL 20 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME ERN MT...WRN AND CENTRAL ND...NRN AND N-CENTRAL SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 202028Z - 202230Z THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT...BUT LOW END SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER CENTRAL MT WILL CONTINUE MOVING EWD. ASSOCIATED LIFT AHEAD OF THIS WAVE IS ALREADY CAUSING THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER ERN MT WHERE INSTABILITY IS MINIMAL. WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN REPORTED WITH WEAK CONVECTION OVER SERN MT. STORMS WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN AS THEY MOVE INTO LARGER INSTABILITY ACROSS OVER WRN/CENTRAL DAKOTAS. WIND PROFILES ARE FAVORABLE FOR FORWARD PROPAGATING SYSTEMS WITH STRONG OUTFLOW. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND FORECAST STORMS MOTIONS IN EXCESS OF 30 KTS TO THE SE FURTHER SUGGEST DAMAGING WIND THREAT. ..JEWELL.. 07/20/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW... 45060459 48990496 49020042 44899913 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 20 22:36:49 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 20 Jul 2004 17:36:49 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407202236.i6KMadX04759@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202236 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202235 ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-202330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1742 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0535 PM CDT TUE JUL 20 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IL...ERN IA...AND SRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 202235Z - 202330Z STORMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM EXTREME SRN WI SWD INTO NRN IL AND POSSIBLE FAR ERN IA. WW MAY BE NEEDED SHORTLY. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN MCV CENTERED OVER EXTREME SERN MN MOVING SEWD. THE ATMOSPHERE S OF THIS FEATURE HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE WITH AN AXIS OF MLCAPE FROM 3000 TO 3500 J/KG FROM E CNTRL IA INTO NRN IL AND SRN WI. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DATA SHOW THE CAP HAS WEAKENED AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM THE MCV SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROMOTE NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT NEXT FEW HOURS. SHEAR PROFILES GENERALLY SUPPORT MULTICELLS...BUT ARE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME UPDRAFT ROTATION WITH 0-6 KM FROM 25 TO 30 KT. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. ..DIAL.. 07/20/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX... 41558815 41229061 42389138 43219000 42818819 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 20 23:09:38 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 20 Jul 2004 18:09:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407202309.i6KN9SX15901@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202308 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202308 ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-210115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1743 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0608 PM CDT TUE JUL 20 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN SD THROUGH NERN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 657... VALID 202308Z - 210115Z THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL...MICROBURSTS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED TORNADOES EXPECTED TO PERSIST ANOTHER FEW HOURS. EARLY THIS EVENING SCATTERED STORMS THAT DEVELOPED ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM SERN SD SWD THROUGH NERN NEB CONTINUE SLOWLY EAST. MANY OF THE STORMS HAVE...SO FAR...NOT BEEN VERY PERSISTENT...MOST LIKELY DUE TO MARGINAL CLOUD LAYER SHEAR WHICH IS PROMOTING OUTFLOW DOMINANCE. DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS ACTIVITY...THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS STRONGLY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE AROUND 3500 J/KG ALONG WITH A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...LOWER LCLS AND STRONGER LOW LEVEL SHEAR. HOWEVER... OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DATA ALSO SHOW A STRONGER CAP ACROSS FAR SERN SD AND EXTREME NE NEB. GIVEN THE SLOW STORM MOTIONS...IT REMAINS QUESTIONABLE WHETHER THE STORMS WILL SURVIVE INTO THE MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT BEFORE THE ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING FURTHER STRENGTHENS THE CAP. ..DIAL.. 07/20/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX... 41558815 41229061 42389138 43219000 42818819 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 20 23:16:03 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 20 Jul 2004 18:16:03 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407202315.i6KNFxX17823@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202315 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202314 COR ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-210115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1743 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0614 PM CDT TUE JUL 20 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN SD THROUGH NERN NEB CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 657... VALID 202314Z - 210115Z CORRECTED FOR TYPE OF BOX REFERENCE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL...MICROBURSTS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED TORNADOES EXPECTED TO PERSIST ANOTHER FEW HOURS. EARLY THIS EVENING SCATTERED STORMS THAT DEVELOPED ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM SERN SD SWD THROUGH NERN NEB CONTINUE SLOWLY EAST. MANY OF THE STORMS HAVE...SO FAR...NOT BEEN VERY PERSISTENT...MOST LIKELY DUE TO MARGINAL CLOUD LAYER SHEAR WHICH IS PROMOTING OUTFLOW DOMINANCE. DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS ACTIVITY...THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS STRONGLY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE AROUND 3500 J/KG ALONG WITH A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...LOWER LCLS AND STRONGER LOW LEVEL SHEAR. HOWEVER... OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DATA ALSO SHOW A STRONGER CAP ACROSS FAR SERN SD AND EXTREME NE NEB. GIVEN THE SLOW STORM MOTIONS...IT REMAINS QUESTIONABLE WHETHER THE STORMS WILL SURVIVE INTO THE MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT BEFORE THE ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING FURTHER STRENGTHENS THE CAP. ..DIAL.. 07/20/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX... 41558815 41229061 42389138 43219000 42818819 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 20 23:32:23 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 20 Jul 2004 18:32:23 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407202332.i6KNWCX23505@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202331 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202330 SDZ000-NEZ000-210100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1744 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0630 PM CDT TUE JUL 20 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN SD THROUGH NERN NEB CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 657... VALID 202330Z - 210100Z CORRECTED FOR TYPE OF BOX REFERENCE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL...MICROBURSTS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED TORNADOES EXPECTED TO PERSIST ANOTHER FEW HOURS. EARLY THIS EVENING SCATTERED STORMS THAT DEVELOPED ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM SERN SD SWD THROUGH NERN NEB CONTINUE SLOWLY EAST. MANY OF THE STORMS HAVE...SO FAR...NOT BEEN VERY PERSISTENT...MOST LIKELY DUE TO MARGINAL CLOUD LAYER SHEAR WHICH IS PROMOTING OUTFLOW DOMINANCE. DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS ACTIVITY...THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS STRONGLY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE AROUND 3500 J/KG ALONG WITH A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...LOWER LCLS AND STRONGER LOW LEVEL SHEAR. HOWEVER... OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DATA ALSO SHOW A STRONGER CAP ACROSS FAR SERN SD AND EXTREME NE NEB. GIVEN THE SLOW STORM MOTIONS...IT REMAINS QUESTIONABLE WHETHER THE STORMS WILL SURVIVE INTO THE MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT BEFORE THE ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING FURTHER STRENGTHENS THE CAP. ..DIAL.. 07/20/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF... 42069953 44369877 44469664 43329667 41789701 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 21 00:22:11 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 20 Jul 2004 19:22:11 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407210022.i6L0M8X09241@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 210021 SWOMCD SPC MCD 210020 NDZ000-SDZ000-210145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1745 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0720 PM CDT TUE JUL 20 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND ERN ND...NRN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 658... VALID 210020Z - 210145Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S F OVER ERN ND AND NWRN MN. THIS HAS DECREASED SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IN THESE AREAS INTO THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE. MUCH HIGHER INSTABILITY REMAINS TO THE W WITHIN N-S AXIS WITH 2000-3500 MLCAPE FROM BIS SWD INTO SD. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...WITH ONLY 15 KTS OF SLY FLOW AT 850 MB NOTED ON AREA PROFILERS. THEREFORE...QUESTION REMAINS WHETHER OR NOT STORMS CAN SUSTAIN THEMSELVES VERY FAR E WHERE MORE SUBSTANTIAL CIN REMAINS AND WILL BE INCREASING WITH TIME AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...HOWEVER...CHANCES ARE THAT STORMS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN ONCE THEY EXIT WW 658...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL / WIND WILL CERTAINLY REMAIN POSSIBLE. ..JEWELL.. 07/21/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR... 44980343 45820259 47740232 49010236 49019813 46469878 44979926 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 21 04:09:33 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 20 Jul 2004 23:09:33 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407210409.i6L49MX22232@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 210408 SWOMCD SPC MCD 210408 MNZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-210545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1746 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1108 PM CDT TUE JUL 20 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MN THROUGH EXTREME NRN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 210408Z - 210545Z STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EAST INTO SERN MN AND POSSIBLY EXTREME NRN IA. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE HAIL AND ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...AND IF TRENDS BEGIN TO INDICATE AN INCREASE IN INTENSITY...A WW MIGHT BE NEEDED. THIS EVENING A CLUSTER OF STRONG STORMS...MOSTLY ELEVATED...ARE MOVING EWD AND NEWD THROUGH SWRN MN. WEAK WARM FRONT WITH ATTENDANT INSTABILITY GRADIENT EXTENDS FROM ERN SD SEWD THROUGH CNTRL IA. SWLY LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 30 KT ACROSS IA...AND THIS WILL ENHANCE WARM ADVECTION AND LIFT ON COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY FROM SRN MN INTO NERN IA TONIGHT. THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6.5-7C/KM. THOUGH CLOUD LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR IS MARGINAL...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR SOME THREAT OF HAIL. ALSO RADAR DATA SHOWS A MID LEVEL CIRCULATION PERSISTS WITH CLUSTER OF STORMS MOVING EWD THROUGH JACKSON AND COTTONWOOD COUNTIES. THIS CLUSTER STILL APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED AND FORWARD PROPAGATING WHICH SUGGEST SOME THREAT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY STILL EXIST. ..DIAL.. 07/21/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX... 43219200 43349465 45049443 44999320 44269182 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 21 12:54:35 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 21 Jul 2004 07:54:35 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407211254.i6LCsQX17695@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 211253 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211253 ILZ000-WIZ000-211500- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1747 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0753 AM CDT WED JUL 21 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN WI/NRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 211253Z - 211500Z GUSTY...POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS...MAY BECOME INCREASING THREAT THIS MORNING. MID-LEVEL PERTURBATION EMBEDDED WITHIN TROPICAL MOIST PLUME EMANATING FROM THE LOWER LATITUDE PACIFIC HAS MAINTAINED CONVECTIVE CLUSTER THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD POOL/MESO HIGH APPEARS TO HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN THE PAST HOUR OR TWO ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN...AND IS ADVANCING EASTWARD AROUND 30 KT. WEAK MEAN FLOW REGIME AHEAD OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE...EMBEDDED WITHIN MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES ALONG THE CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER...IS MARGINALIZING OVERALL SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...AS MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH LOWER 70S DEW POINTS ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN/ NORTHERN ILLINOIS BEGINS TO WARM WITH DAYTIME HEATING...RISK OF STRONGER SURFACE GUSTS NEARING SEVERE LIMITS ARE POSSIBLE AS ACTIVITY APPROACHES THE MILWAUKEE/CHICAGO METROPOLITAN AREAS BY 15-16Z TIME FRAME. ..KERR.. 07/21/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN... 43358957 43668908 43228837 43058793 42308775 41838775 41868859 42268929 42338985 42728945 43038932 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 21 14:04:33 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 21 Jul 2004 09:04:33 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407211404.i6LE4KX13752@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 211403 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211403 MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-211600- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1748 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0903 AM CDT WED JUL 21 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IA...NRN/CNTRL IL...NRN/CNTRL IND AND EXTREME SWRN LOWER MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 211403Z - 211600Z THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING THREAT FOR A BOW ECHO WITH DAMAGING WINDS FROM ERN IA EWD INTO THE MIDWEST. A SEVERE TSTM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED BY 16Z. SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW A WELL-DEFINED MCV VCNTY OMA THAT WILL BE MOVING EWD THROUGH CNTRL IA THROUGH MID-DAY. 12Z ETA FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE MIDLEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL INCREASE DOWNSTREAM INTO THE 40-50 KT RANGE BY 18Z. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE CONSIDERING 40-45 KT FLOW IN THE 4-5 KM RANGE ON THE OMAHA VWP. MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BECOMING SITUATED W-E ACROSS CNTRL IA INTO NRN IL/SRN LAKE MI AREA. THOUGH THERE WILL BE CIRRUS/AC DEBRIS COVERING THE AREA THROUGH MIDDAY...IT APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENTLY THIN FOR AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION. AS CINH ERODES...AIR MASS ALONG/SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. TSTMS SHOULD INCREASE IN INTENSITY LATE THIS MORNING ACROSS ERN IA AND/OR NWRN IL ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF CURRENT ACTIVITY. MAGNITUDE OF WLY MIDLEVEL FLOW...STRONG INSTABILITY AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE MCV SHOULD AID IN UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A POTENTIAL BOW ECHO. FEATURE SHOULD TRACK ALONG THE 850-500 THICKNESS VECTORS ESEWD ACROSS NRN/CNTRL IL INTO NRN/CNTRL IND AND PERHAPS A SMALL PART OF SWRN LOWER MI THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL. ..RACY.. 07/21/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILN...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX...DVN...DMX... 40869292 41819317 42229176 42448922 42468888 42288475 39898507 39848814 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 21 15:19:20 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 21 Jul 2004 10:19:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407211519.i6LFJAX16506@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 211518 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211518 OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-211645- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1749 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1018 AM CDT WED JUL 21 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN/ECNTRL IL...NRN THIRD OF IND...NWRN OH AND SRN LOWER MI CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE VALID 211518Z - 211645Z PARTS OF NERN/ECNTRL IL...THE NRN THIRD OF IND...NWRN OH AND SRN LOWER MI WILL BE UPGRADED TO A MODERATE RISK ON THE 1630Z DAY 1 UPDATE. 18Z SOUNDINGS HAVE BEEN REQUESTED AT ILX/APX/DTX. WELL-DEFINED MCV CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS SRN IA AND PROFILERS/VWP SHOW 30-40 KT MIDLEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE FEATURE. TSTMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL/SRN IA AND NRN IL AND WILL LIKELY INCREASE AS BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING CONTINUES. THESE TSTMS WILL BE EMBEDDED IN INCREASING WLY FLOW REGIME AS THE MCV TRACKS EWD THIS AFTERNOON. THUS...THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR ONE OR MORE BOW ECHOES TO EVOLVE ACROSS THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST. HIGHEST WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL...WITH SOME GUSTS EXCEEDING 70 KTS...WILL BE ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA. ..RACY.. 07/21/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX...DVN... 42038970 43088445 42568305 41538319 40508444 40348846 41048991 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 21 16:12:01 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 21 Jul 2004 11:12:01 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407211611.i6LGBmX09169@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 211610 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211610 MIZ000-211815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1750 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1110 AM CDT WED JUL 21 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/NRN LOWER MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 211610Z - 211815Z THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NRN/CNTRL LOWER MI. WW MAY BE REQUIRED. FULL INSOLATION HAS CONTRIBUTED TO RAPID DESTABILIZATION OF THE AIR MASS ACROSS MUCH OF LOWER MI LATE THIS MORNING WITH MLCAPES OF 2000-2500 J/KG IN PLACE ATTM. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS/RUC40 SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT ONLY A SMALL NEGATIVE AREA REMAINS AND WILL PROBABLY BE ERASED WITH A COUPLE MORE DEGREES OF WARMING. THUS...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY/DEVELOP THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. CURRENT VWPS SUGGEST THAT THE WIND FLOW THROUGH THE LOW-MIDLEVELS OF THE COLUMN ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG OVER LOWER MI ATTM. UPSTREAM...HOWEVER...GREEN BAY AND SULLIVAN WIND PROFILES SHOW THAT THE FLOW ABOVE 2 KM IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE. AS THE MCV ROTATING OVER CNTRL WI MOVES ENEWD TOWARD LOWER MI...THE LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELD AND...CONSEQUENTLY...DAMAGING WIND THREATS WILL INCREASE. HIGHER END WIND POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS SRN LOWER MI SWD INTO THE MIDWEST. ..RACY.. 07/21/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR... 43098618 44468655 45508606 45768462 45118327 43168367 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 21 18:03:17 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 21 Jul 2004 13:03:17 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407211803.i6LI34X30497@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 211802 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211801 INZ000-MIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-211930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1751 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0101 PM CDT WED JUL 21 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN IA INTO NRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 661... VALID 211801Z - 211930Z SO FAR...ORGANIZED TSTMS HAVE NOT DEVELOPED AS PLANNED...BUT SHOULD INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. ENVIRONMENT IS STILL CONDUCIVE TO A BOW ECHO SITUATION WITH DAMAGING WIND THE PRIMARY THREAT. 18Z DAVENPORT SOUNDING SHOWED A WARM LAYER IN THE H85-H7 LAYER AND IS LIKELY THE MAIN INHIBITING FACTOR IN SUSTAINED SURFACE BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT THUS FAR. MODIFYING THE SOUNDING FOR CONDITIONS DOWNSTREAM ACROSS NRN ILL WITH 85/77 STILL INDICATES ABOUT 75 J/KG INHIBITION. CONTINUED HEATING...HOWEVER...AND INCREASING CONVERGENCE ALONG W-E ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT/INTENSIFICATION ACROSS EXTREME SERN IA OR NWRN IL THIS AFTERNOON. WIND FIELDS REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE FOR BOW ECHO FORMATION. DAVENPORT SOUNDING SHOWED BETTER THAN 30 KTS OF UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW ABOVE 2 KM AGL. AS STORMS DEVELOP AND BECOME ALIGNED WITH THE WLY SHEAR VECTORS...A BOW ECHO IS LIKELY TO EVOLVE AND TRACK EWD ACROSS NRN IL...NRN IND AND EXTREME SRN LOWER MI THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH SOME GREATER THAN 70 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE. HAIL COULD ALSO OCCUR. AS THE SITUATION EVOLVES...WW MAY NEED TO BE REALIGNED/REISSUED FOR THE AREA AND DOWNSTREAM. ..RACY.. 07/21/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX...DVN...DMX...EAX... 40589330 42219332 42428597 40598612 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 21 18:31:21 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 21 Jul 2004 13:31:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407211831.i6LIV7X10231@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 211830 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211830 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-212030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1752 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0130 PM CDT WED JUL 21 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN ND...NERN SD...EXTREME W CENTRAL MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 211830Z - 212030Z ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND WIND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. OUTLOOK WILL BE AMENDED TO UPGRADE SEVERE PROBABILITIES AND A WW COULD BE REQUIRED. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CU DEVELOPING RAPIDLY WITHIN WEAK SURFACE TROUGH. STRONG HEATING WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE AREA WITH MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 DEVELOPING. FAIRLY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE IN PLACE DUE TO COOL 500 MB TEMPERATURES OF -8 TO -10. UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW INCREASING WITH HEIGHT WILL MAKE FOR LONG STRAIGHT LINE HODOGRAPHS AND SPLITTING SUPERCELLS. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY BY THE TIME THEY GET INTO NERN SD WHERE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS GREATEST. A FEW HAIL STONES COULD BE SIGNIFICANT. ..JEWELL.. 07/21/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS... 45100033 46359884 46399668 45359586 43969651 44809980 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 21 20:45:10 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 21 Jul 2004 15:45:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407212044.i6LKivX07841@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 212044 SWOMCD SPC MCD 212043 MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-NEZ000-212215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1753 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0343 PM CDT WED JUL 21 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SE SD...NW IA...SW MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 212043Z - 212215Z A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS SE SD...NW IA...AND SW MN. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WEATHER WATCH...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. A COUPLE OF STORMS HAVE INITIATED EAST OF SFD IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG NEAR THE ONGOING STORMS...AND INCREASING TO NEAR 3000 J/KG IN NW IA. POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE INCREASING WITH THESE STORMS AS THEY MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO THE MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER SE SD AND NW IA. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES IN THIS AREA ARE NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS IN THE AIRMASS OVER WW662...HOWEVER...RUC POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES OF 30 KTS...SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS. GIVEN LACK OF DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND WEAK FLOW IN THE LOWEST 3 KM...MAINLY MULTICELL TYPE STORMS ARE EXPECTED. ..LEVIT.. 07/21/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...UNR... 42639663 42629572 43129498 43649487 44109485 44229560 44149736 44099856 44089912 43869961 43059955 42969901 42859816 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 21 22:11:03 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 21 Jul 2004 17:11:03 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407212210.i6LMAnX12912@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 212210 SWOMCD SPC MCD 212209 MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-212245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1754 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0509 PM CDT WED JUL 21 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IL/NRN IND/MUCH OF SRN LOWER MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 663... VALID 212209Z - 212245Z SEVERE STORM OVER DUPAGE/WILL COUNTIES IL MOVING EWD INTO COOK COUNTY. IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...NEAR STORM ENVIRONMENT TORNADO THREAT PARAMETERS HAVE INCREASED SOME OVER THE LAST TWO HOURS. DAMAGING WIND THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS SRN LOWER MI. 21Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THIS STORM IS LOCATED ALONG AN E-W SURFACE BOUNDARY WITH THE AIR MASS OVER NERN-ERN IL AND NWRN IND REMAINS EXTREMELY UNSTABLE /MLCAPE 3500-4500 J/KG/. THIS STORM IS LOCATED ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY WHERE THE COMBINATION OF EXTREME INSTABILITY...0-1 KM SRH AROUND 100 M2/S2...AND MLLCL AROUND 900 M...MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. HOWEVER... WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE THREAT FOR LONG-LIVED TORNADIC SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. LINE OF STORMS OVER SW LOWER MI /CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM MECOSTA TO ALLEGAN COUNTIES MI/ IS MOVING TO THE ESE AT 30 KT. AIR MASS DOWNSTREAM IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND WILL SUPPORT DAMAGING WIND THREAT INTO THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS SRN LOWER MI. ..PETERS.. 07/21/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...LOT...ILX...DVN... 41918978 41698797 42658635 43818541 44858243 42538242 39578977 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 21 23:03:55 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 21 Jul 2004 18:03:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407212303.i6LN3iX02173@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 212303 SWOMCD SPC MCD 212302 MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-220100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1755 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0602 PM CDT WED JUL 21 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SD...NRN AND WRN MN...NERN NEB...NWRN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 662... VALID 212302Z - 220100Z ADDITIONAL WW COULD BE REQUIRED FOR ERN SD INTO WRN MN BY 2330Z. FORCING REMAINS WEAK ON THE LARGE SCALE...WITH ESTABLISHED STORMS SURVIVING OFF OF SR INFLOW AND NEW STORMS FORMING ON OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. MOST STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER NRN MN...AS LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION BRINGS IN MORE STABLE AIR FROM THE NW AND AIR MASS BEGINS TO STABILIZE AHEAD OF CURRENT STORMS. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR CONTINUED SEVERE WILL BE OVER ERN SD AND SWRN MN...WHERE STRONGER INSTABILITY EXISTS WITH MLCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG...AS WELL AS STRONGER WIND FIELDS IN THE LOWEST 3 KM FOR STRONGER STORM RELATIVE INFLOW. ..JEWELL.. 07/21/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...DMX...FGF...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF... 46159344 44789463 44249475 43049461 41889550 41869752 42369882 42979935 44019846 45219773 46759594 48179626 48989572 48979520 49399515 49369490 48849464 48559353 48589311 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 21 23:21:59 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 21 Jul 2004 18:21:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407212322.i6LNM7X08538@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 212321 SWOMCD SPC MCD 212320 OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-212345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1756 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0620 PM CDT WED JUL 21 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL-NRN IL/CENTRAL-NRN IND/CENTRAL-SRN LOWER MI/NWRN OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 663... VALID 212320Z - 212345Z NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT HOUR FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL-NRN IND INTO NWRN OH. CLUSTER OF STORMS...CURRENTLY OVER NWRN IND...IS MOVING TO THE EAST AT 25 KT...WHILE ADDITIONAL STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SWD ACROSS EAST CENTRAL IL WHERE THE AIR MASS IS EXTREMELY UNSTABLE /MLCAPE UP TO 4500 J/KG/. INCREASING WLY LOW-MID LEVEL WINDS THIS EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL-NRN IND INTO WRN OH IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW THE CONTINUATION OF ACTIVITY AS IT SPREADS EWD. FURTHER NORTH...THE LINE OF STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL-SRN LOWER MI WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD...REACHING ONTARIO BY 02-03Z. DOWNSTREAM MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES EWD AT 30-35 KT. ..PETERS.. 07/21/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX... 44128437 44868241 41188268 39738562 39278793 39438832 41398746 42448610 43038466 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 22 02:18:10 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 21 Jul 2004 21:18:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407220217.i6M2HuX04554@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 220217 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220216 OHZ000-MIZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-220315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1758 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0916 PM CDT WED JUL 21 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL-ERN IND INTO NWRN-WRN OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 664... VALID 220216Z - 220315Z DAMAGING WIND THREAT TO CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN IND INTO NWRN OH DURING THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS /UNTIL AROUND 04Z/. REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS SHOW THE BOW ECHO ALONG THE SERN MI/NWRN OH BORDER REGION HAS DECREASED IN FORWARD SPEED AS IT MOVED EWD INTO AN AIR MASS THAT HAS BECOME MORE STABLE. EXTENSIVE COLD POOL OVER FAR SRN MI AND NRN IND IS MAINTAINING THE FORWARD MOTION OF THE LINE OF STORMS THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NWRN OH INTO CENTRAL IND... DESPITE THE SLOW STABILIZATION OF THE AIR MASS. OVERALL LINE IS MOVING TO THE ESE AT 30 KT WITH EMBEDDED BOW SEGMENTS MOVING UP TO AROUND 35 KT. THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ADDITIONAL WW WILL BE LOW...AS THE DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL-SWRN OH/SERN IND CONTINUES DIURNAL STABILIZATION THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...IF A COLD POOL CAN STRENGTHEN WITH THE BOWING SEGMENT ACROSS CENTRAL IND... THEN THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAY EXTEND INTO PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL-SERN IND THROUGH 04Z. ..PETERS.. 07/22/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...IND... 39218727 39528717 39848589 40888547 41018453 41978370 41578332 39938369 38998487 38908650 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 22 12:49:56 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 22 Jul 2004 07:49:56 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407221249.i6MCneX05062@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 221149 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221149 VAZ000-WVZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-221345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1759 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0649 AM CDT THU JUL 22 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SE KY/SRN WV/SW VA/NW NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 221149Z - 221345Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF INCREASING SEVERE THREAT...BUT WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. MID-LEVEL JET STREAK ON THE ORDER OF 30 KT...AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM NOW PROGRESSING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY. CONVECTIVE CLUSTER WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD WITH LARGE-SCALE FORCING...ON NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE 14-16Z TIME FRAME. THOUGH CAPE DOES NOT APPEAR PARTICULARLY LARGE DUE TO RELATIVELY WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT OF AIR MASS...NEAR 2 INCHES...SUPPORTED HEAVY RAIN CORE WHICH APPEARS TO HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO SMALL WEAK DOWNBURST AND POSSIBLE EVOLVING SURFACE COLD POOL ACROSS THE MOREHEAD KY AREA PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS SEGMENT OF EVOLVING LINE IS SURGING SOUTHEASTWARD AROUND 40 KT...AND WILL PROGRESS NORTHEAST OF JACKSON...ACROSS THE PIKEVILLE...AREA INTO EXTREME SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA BY 14Z...AND MAY CONTINUE TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS APPROACHING SEVERE LIMITS. AS CONVECTION SPREADS INTO COOLER MORE STABLE LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE CREST OF APPALACHIANS INTO PARTS OF NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...WEAKENING TRENDS APPEAR LIKELY TO ENSUE. ..KERR.. 07/22/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...MRX...JKL... 37688281 37938244 37788142 37408061 36438056 36418187 36648259 36918352 37458377 37548357  From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 22 17:00:50 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 22 Jul 2004 12:00:50 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407221700.i6MH0XX26222@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 221700 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221659 OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-221900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1760 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1159 AM CDT THU JUL 22 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ECNTRL/NERN IL INTO NRN/CNTRL IND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 221659Z - 221900Z WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL IS INCREASING ACROSS NERN/ECNTRL IL INTO NRN/CNTRL IND. A WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED. THE LINE OF ELEVATED TSTMS ARCING NW-SE FROM THE QUAD CITIES AREA SEWD TO DECATUR CONTINUES TO MOVE ENEWD. THE LINE IS BECOMING ORIENTED MORE NORMAL TO THE MEAN FLOW REGIME AND IS ALSO MOVING INTO A DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG. LATEST PROXIMITY RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT CINH IS LIKELY ERODING SUFFICIENTLY THAT UPSTREAM TSTMS WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE SURFACE BASED SHORTLY. GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND DEEP WLY FLOW REGIME...TSTMS COULD EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MORE WIND DAMAGE PRODUCING LINE SEGMENTS. THE ONLY NEGATIVE IS SOMEWHAT WEAKER MIDLEVEL FLOW THAN YESTERDAY AND WEAK LOW LEVEL INFLOW. BUT...AS COLD POOLS INCREASE AND BEGIN TO BECOME MORE ALIGNED WITH THE MEAN WIND VECTOR...DAMAGING WINDS WILL BECOME MORE OF A THREAT. THUS...A WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SOON. ..RACY.. 07/22/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...DVN... 41658844 41448485 40808478 39848505 39848846 40218922 41108968 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 22 17:31:10 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 22 Jul 2004 12:31:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407221730.i6MHUuX08080@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 221730 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221729 COZ000-221930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1761 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1229 PM CDT THU JUL 22 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...FRONT RANGE OF NERN CO ONTO ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 221729Z - 221930Z THE LARGE HAIL THREAT WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A WW MAY BE REQUIRED. DENVER RADAR AND SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATE THAT A NELY COLD SURGE IS MOVING SWWD THROUGH THE URBAN CORRIDOR ATTM. VWP SHOWS UPSLOPE ENELY FLOW IS UP THROUGH 1 KM AT CHEYENNE AND DENVER. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ADVECTING WWD BENEATH NEARLY 8 DEGREES C/KM MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND IS MAKING FOR AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. TSTMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED OVER THE MOUNTAINS WEST OF BOULDER AND DENVER AND SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. PLUGGING IN A PARCEL WITH 77/55 YIELDS A SBCAPE OF 1100 J/KG WITHIN A VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILE OF AROUND 50 KTS. THUS...SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE AND THE SPC EXPERIMENTAL HAIL ALGORITHMS SUGGEST HAIL TO THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS/PING PONG BALLS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. FARTHER EAST...CINH IS A LITTLE STRONGER...BUT GIVEN A COUPLE MORE HOURS OF HEATING...TSTMS COULD DEVELOP FARTHER EAST ONTO THE PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ..RACY.. 07/22/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BOU... 39240543 40480548 40990425 40880314 39070320 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 22 18:53:44 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 22 Jul 2004 13:53:44 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407221853.i6MIrRX12381@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 221852 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221852 OHZ000-MIZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-222015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1762 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0152 PM CDT THU JUL 22 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IL...IN...SRN MI...WRN OH...NRN KY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 221852Z - 222015Z A NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED S AND E OF WW 665 FOR CONTINUED THREAT OF WIND DAMAGE. 20Z OUTLOOK WILL BE UPGRADED TO REFLECT THREAT FURTHER E INTO IN/OH/KY/MI. 18Z ILX SOUNDING INDICATES A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH MLCAPE OF 3000-3700 J/KG. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT VERY STEEP AT 6.0 C/KM...BUT GIVEN VERY HIGH DEWPOINTS VERTICAL ACCELERATIONS ARE STILL STRONG. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS PRESSURE RISES IN ASSOCIATION WITH STORM CLUSTER / MCS OVER NRN IL...INDICATING SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD. VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TAKING PLACE ON SRN EDGE OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NOW ACROSS S CENTRAL IL. ACTIVITY OVER NRN IL WILL LIKELY CONTINUE EWD AND MAY STRENGTHEN AS INSTABILITY INCREASES. FURTHER S...NEW DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY MERGE INTO AN MCS AND MOVE INTO CENTRAL / SRN IN...POSSIBLY INTO KY AND WRN OH WITH TIME. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT. ..JEWELL.. 07/22/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...JKL...ILN...DTX...LMK...IWX...GRR...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX... 38368767 39558920 40278827 42548724 42728452 41798355 39048353 37988396 37998578 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 22 23:10:07 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 22 Jul 2004 18:10:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407222309.i6MN9nX22328@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 222309 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222308 ILZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-230045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1766 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0608 PM CDT THU JUL 22 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...EAST CENTRAL KS/CENTRAL MO/PORTION OF FAR SWRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 222308Z - 230045Z ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND/OR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM EAST CENTRAL KS EWD ACROSS CENTRAL MO TO FAR SWRN IL IN THE VICINITY OF STL. WW NOT ANTICIPATED GIVEN SHORT DURATION OF SEVERE THREAT. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW SCATTERED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED DURING THE LAST HOUR ACROSS THE AREA OF CONCERN. SURFACE ANALYSES SHOW A WEAK BOUNDARY ORIENTED E-W IS MOVING TO SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH INTO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. THIS ACTIVITY IS ALONG THE SRN FRINGE OF STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW LOCATED ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT A FEW ORGANIZED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DURING THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. AFTER SUNSET...THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO STABILIZE. ..PETERS.. 07/22/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT... 38599642 39029597 39099343 39169166 39098994 38438980 37759033 37839322 37799511 37919610 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 22 23:35:05 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 22 Jul 2004 18:35:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407222334.i6MNYlX30114@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 222334 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222334 KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-230000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1767 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0634 PM CDT THU JUL 22 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO AND EXTREME WRN KS AND DUNDY COUNTY NEB CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 666... VALID 222334Z - 230000Z WW 666 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 00Z. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW STORM MERGERS FROM NERN CO TO SERN CO NEAR TAD HAVE RESULTED IN AN OVERALL CLUSTER OF STORMS MOVING TO THE SE AT 15-20 KT. ADDITIONAL DISCRETE STORMS CONTINUE IN ADVANCE OF THE LARGER CLUSTER...WHILE DOWNSTREAM CONVECTION FROM NERN NM INTO SWRN KS HAS STABILIZED THIS AIR MASS. AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND/OR HAIL EVENT WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT HOUR. THE GREATER THREAT WILL LIKELY BE HEAVY RAINFALL RATES /1-2 INCH PER HOUR/ WITH ADDITIONAL STORM MERGERS AND SLOW STORM MOTIONS. ..PETERS.. 07/22/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU... 37750473 39060311 40090252 40140163 37780151 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 22 23:43:17 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 22 Jul 2004 18:43:17 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407222342.i6MNgxX00550@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 222342 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222342 OHZ000-KYZ000-MIZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-230115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1768 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0642 PM CDT THU JUL 22 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN IL...INDIANA...CENTRAL KY...WRN OH...EXTREME NRN TN AND SERN MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 667...668... VALID 222342Z - 230115Z THREAT FOR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE CONTINUES WITH STRONGEST CELLS...PARTICULARLY OVER ERN IN / WRN OH...SRN IL AND CENTRAL KY. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL MOVE INTO WRN OHIO WHICH IS E OF WW 667. HOWEVER...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES STRONG PRESSURE RISES WELL AHEAD OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW...INDICATING STORMS MIGHT BE ENCOUNTERING A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER GROWTH OR INTENSIFICATION DESPITE STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER WRN OH. THEREFORE...ONLY ISOLATED SEVERE IS EXPECTED...AND AN ADDITIONAL WW MAY NOT BE REQUIRED. FARTHER SOUTH...STORMS CONTINUE TO FORWARD PROPAGATE OVER WRN KY...AND WILL LIKELY ENTER INTO EXTREME NRN TN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THINKING IS THAT THESE STORMS WILL WEAKEN BY THE TIME THEY EXIT SRN PART OF WW 668...SO THAT AN ADDITIONAL WW WILL NOT BE REQUIRED. ..JEWELL.. 07/22/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN...DTX...LMK...IWX...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX... 37688939 38688929 38658786 38848642 40598546 42018502 42008322 41978242 39788288 38418319 36658473 36328633 36378801 37298879 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 23 19:57:30 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 23 Jul 2004 14:57:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407231957.i6NJvIX08554@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231956 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231956 MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-232130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1769 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0256 PM CDT FRI JUL 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL-NERN OK...SERN KS AND EXTREME SWRN MO CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 231956Z - 232130Z ISOLD DAMAGING MICROBURSTS AND HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OK...SERN KS AND EXTREME SWRN MO THIS AFTERNOON. WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY AXIS SITUATED FROM CNTRL OK NEWD INTO SERN KS AND EXTREME SWRN MO. WEAK CINH/MESOSCALE CONVERGENCE COMBINED WITH A MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS HAVE PROVEN SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED TSTMS. PROFILERS SUGGEST THAT THE STRONGEST 0-6KM SHEAR EXISTS FROM NRN OK INTO KS...BUT STILL MARGINAL TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. PRIND THAT THE STORMS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY OF MULTICELL CHARACTER. AS THE STORMS MATURE AND COLLAPSE... DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS ARE LIKELY GIVEN DOWNDRAFT CAPE OF NEARLY 1500 J/KG ENHANCED BY MIDLEVEL DRY AIR. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE ISOLD AND A WW WILL NOT BE WARRANTED. ..RACY.. 07/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...ICT...OUN... 35639899 37379750 38159432 36809372 35989529 34439820 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 23 23:16:30 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 23 Jul 2004 18:16:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407232316.i6NNG9X13265@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 232315 SWOMCD SPC MCD 232315 AZZ000-240015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1770 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0615 PM CDT FRI JUL 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN AZ CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 232315Z - 240015Z ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL AND WRN AZ. WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW NUMEROUS STORMS EXTENDING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL AZ ALONG THE AZ/MEXICO BORDER NNEWD TO GILA COUNTY AND SE-NW ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM. STRONG INSOLATION /SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S TO AROUND 100/ IN THE DESERT VALLEYS TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS RESULTED IN A DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. AREA VAD WIND PROFILERS AND 18Z RAOBS INDICATED ESELY STEERING FLOW OF 10-15 KT ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN AZ FROM AROUND PHX AND SWD...WHILE STEERING FLOW WAS WLY ACROSS THE NRN PART OF AZ PER FLG VAD DATA. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS IS EXPECTED GENERALLY SOUTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM SRN COCONINO TO WRN GILA TO CENTRAL PIMA COUNTIES...WHERE INVERTED-V PROFILES WILL ENHANCE PROBABILITY FOR MICROBURSTS. HOWEVER...THE WEAK STEERING FLOW WILL TEND TO LIMIT PROPAGATION OF THE STORMS INTO THE LOWER DESERTS...AND WILL ALSO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE. ..PETERS.. 07/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR... 34501264 34501171 33621133 33081125 32241219 31931272 32251364 33581357 34181321 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 24 18:22:16 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 24 Jul 2004 13:22:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407241821.i6OILrX03102@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 241821 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241821 ARZ000-OKZ000-242015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1771 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0121 PM CDT SAT JUL 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK...NRN-CNTRL AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 241821Z - 242015Z CONVECTION IS SLOWLY INCREASING FROM EXTREME ERN OK INTO CENTRAL AR...AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP INTO THE AFTERNOON. AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR INTENSITY TRENDS AND POSSIBILITY OF WW. AIR MASS REMAINS VERY MOIST ACROSS ERN OK INTO AR WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID 70S. CLOUDS HAVE DIMINISHED OVER THE REGION AND STRONG HEATING IS OCCURRING WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 90F OVER CENTRAL AR...RESULTING IN MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE RANGING FROM 3000 J/KG FROM EXTREME SERN OK INTO CENTRAL AR TO 1000 J/KG OVER NRN AR. VAD AND PROFILER DATA SHOW LAYERS OF 20-25 KT FLOW IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS BUT OVERALL DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS MARGINAL FOR ENHANCED STORM ORGANIZATION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE DISCONTINUITY FROM EXTREME SERN OK INTO CENTRAL AR WHICH MAY PROVIDE FOCUS FOR STRONGER CELLS. RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER THAT WILL ENHANCE THREAT FOR DOWNBURSTS AND OCCASIONAL HAIL. ..WEISS.. 07/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...SHV...TSA... 34969523 35869499 36419399 36439247 36279105 35669060 34809141 34259339 34149505 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 24 23:05:24 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 24 Jul 2004 18:05:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407242304.i6ON4xX14846@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 242304 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242303 AZZ000-CAZ000-250130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1772 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0603 PM CDT SAT JUL 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS W-CENTRAL/SWRN AZ CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 242303Z - 250130Z BROKEN BAND OF TSTMS MAY MOVE SWWD ACROSS PORTIONS SWRN YAVAPAI...NRN/WRN MARICOPA...SERN MOHAVE...AND LA PAZ COUNTIES THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 2Z. A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS AND HAIL NEAR SEVERE LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE. WW NOT PLANNED ATTM. CONVECTION IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED IN A ROUGHLY 100 NM LONG...NW-SE ORIENTED ZONE CENTERED OVER PRC AS OF 23Z. MODIFIED 18Z PHX RAOB AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FOR CONVECTION TO CONTINUE FORMING ALONG EDGE OF COLLECTIVE GUST FRONT AS THIS ACTIVITY ORGANIZES FURTHER AND SHIFTS SWWD ACROSS LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS. BOUNDARY LAYER IS PROGRESSIVELY MORE UNSTABLE WITH SWWD EXTENT ACROSS THIS AREA...I.E. 500 J/KG MLCAPE JUST W PRC BUT NEARLY 2000 J/KG MLCAPE AROUND YUM. DCAPE MATCHES OR EXCEEDS MLCAPE THROUGH MUCH OF PRE-STORM AIR MASS. 10-15 KT MIDLEVEL NELYS WILL SUPPORT SWWD PROPAGATION OF COLD POOL OVER DESERT FLOOR. ..EDWARDS.. 07/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...VEF... 35131327 34141177 33151311 34071433 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 25 01:08:04 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 24 Jul 2004 20:08:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407250107.i6P17dX12077@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 250107 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250106 AZZ000-250300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1773 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0806 PM CDT SAT JUL 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS S-CENTRAL AZ CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 250106Z - 250300Z BROKEN BAND OF TSTMS IS INCREASING IN INTENSITY AS OF 1Z FROM ERN MARICOPA COUNTY SSEWD TO E-CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED FOR ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS AND MOVE SWWD ACROSS DESERT WITH POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR SEVERE LEVELS. 00Z TUS/FGZ RAOBS APPEAR UNREPRESENTATIVE OF SIGNIFICANTLY MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS FARTHER W AND SW...BECAUSE OF STABILIZING EFFECTS OF PRIOR CONVECTION. MODIFIED 18Z PHX RAOB AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS INSTEAD SUGGEST TSTMS ENE-SE OF PHX WILL MOVE INTO ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE. SIMILAR VALUES OF DCAPE ARE ESTIMATED AS WELL...BECAUSE OF DEEPLY MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYER. THOSE THERMODYNAMIC FACTORS COMBINED WITH NELY MIDLEVEL FLOW OFF HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD SUPPORT FORWARD-PROPAGATION OF TSTM BAND PAST I-10 CORRIDOR FROM PHX METRO AREA SEWD TO ABOUT 25 NW TUS. ACTIVITY MAY MOVE ACROSS MUCH OF ERN MARICOPA...CENTRAL/WRN PINAL AND NRN PIMA COUNTIES BEFORE WEAKENING THIS EVENING. ..EDWARDS.. 07/25/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TWC...PSR... 33931177 32731093 31681196 32861289 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 25 18:52:44 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 25 Jul 2004 13:52:44 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407251852.i6PIqMX16692@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 251851 SWOMCD SPC MCD 251851 VAZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-NCZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-252045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1774 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0151 PM CDT SUN JUL 25 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE-ERN TN...SERN KY...NRN AL...EXTRM NWRN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 251851Z - 252045Z A BAND OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED FROM NWRN AL ACROSS MIDDLE TN INTO EXTREME SERN KY. ISOLATED STORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL,,,BUT LIMITED COVERAGE OF SEVERE THREAT SUGGESTS WW MAY NOT BE NEEDED. STORMS HAVE SLOWLY INCREASED ACROSS THIS REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY MAX MOVING EWD ACROSS WRN TN. STORMS HAVE BECOME ORGANIZED INTO A SLOW MOVING LINE...WITH LINEAR CHARACTERISTICS OVER NERN PARTS OF MIDDLE TN ENHANCED BY OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER CONVECTION OVER NERN TN. AIR MASS REMAINS MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW 70S...AND MLCAPE RANGING FROM NEAR 1000 J/KG OVER THE NRN PARTS OF THE AREA TO NEAR 3000 J/KG IN NRN AL. VAD DATA AT BNA SHOW WINDS OF 25-30 KT IN THE 3-5 KM LAYER CONTRIBUTING TO MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR OF 20-25 KT IN THE LOWEST 5 KM. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. IN ADDITION...HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GREATER THAN 1.75 INCHES...POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING CELLS ALONG THE SLOW MOVING LINE...AND NEARLY STATIONARY CELLS AHEAD OF THE LINE IN ERN TN INDICATE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. ..WEISS.. 07/25/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN... 34258769 35288706 36008644 36618573 37058447 37258331 37048284 36748286 35638355 34978436 34238650 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 25 19:07:05 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 25 Jul 2004 14:07:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407251906.i6PJ6bX20466@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 251906 SWOMCD SPC MCD 251905 ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-252200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1775 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0205 PM CDT SUN JUL 25 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 251905Z - 252200Z NEARLY STATIONARY PULSE STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM NRN INTO SWRN AL WHICH HAVE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WET MICROBURSTS AND HEAVY RAIN. WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. STRONG THUNDERSTORM HAVE DEVELOPED IN A BAND FROM NEAR BHM SSWWD TOWARD MOB ALONG WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE ZONE. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 90-95F RANGE AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOW 70S...AIR MASS HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE OF 3000-4000 J/KG. WEAK VERTICAL WIND PROFILES WITH MEAN WIND/VERTICAL SHEAR GENERALLY AOB 10 KT INDICATES STORMS WILL EXHIBIT PULSE CHARACTERISTICS. DCAPE VALUES OF 900-1000 J/KG...AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8-9 C/KM IN LOWEST 3 KM ACCOMPANIED BY 15-20F TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS AT THE SURFACE SUGGESTS THREAT FOR A FEW WET MICROBURSTS TO DEVELOP. IN ADDITION...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES AND LITTLE IF ANY CELL MOVEMENT INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO OCCUR. ..WEISS.. 07/25/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MOB...LIX... 32118818 33138800 34118753 34298676 34188587 33738576 32348674 30838737 30258789 30478852 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 25 21:48:05 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 25 Jul 2004 16:48:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407252147.i6PLlaX31782@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 252147 SWOMCD SPC MCD 252146 AZZ000-252345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1776 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0446 PM CDT SUN JUL 25 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WCNTRL/SCNTRL AZ CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 252146Z - 252345Z TSTM CLUSTERS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SWWD THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON INTO PORTIONS OF WCNTRL/SCNTRL AZ...WITH POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. ALTHOUGH WW NOT ANTICIPATED...CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED THROUGH REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON. MODIFIED 18Z PHX SOUNDING FOR AMBIENT SFC CONDITIONS SUGGESTS AROUND 1000 J/KG MLCAPE INVOF PHOENIX METRO AREA/INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR...PROGRESSIVELY INCREASING TO AOA 1500-2000 J/KG INVOF INTERSTATE 8 CORRIDOR OF SW AZ. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...EVOLVING COLD POOLS AND E/NE MID LEVEL STEERING FLOW OF 10-15 KTS /EVIDENT IN 18Z PHX SOUNDING AND LOCAL 88D VAD/ MAY SUPPORT SWWD PROPAGATION OF TSTM CLUSTERS INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF WCNTRL/SCNTRL AZ LATE THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN EXPECTED EVOLUTION...MICROBURSTS/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OWING TO WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER CHARACTERIZED BY 40-50F SFC TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT SUPPORTED BY HIGH PRECIP WATER CONTENT AROUND 1.4 IN AND SLOW STORM MOTIONS. IN ADDITION...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS. ..GUYER.. 07/25/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...VEF... 33741123 33371080 32931091 32871157 32951241 33251342 33641400 34071406 34521378 34431321 34091205 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 25 22:40:20 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 25 Jul 2004 17:40:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407252239.i6PMdsX13680@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 252239 SWOMCD SPC MCD 252238 IDZ000-NVZ000-ORZ000-260115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1777 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0538 PM CDT SUN JUL 25 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SERN AND EXTREME E-CENTRAL ORE...SWRN AND W-CENTRAL ID...EXTREME NRN NV CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 252238Z - 260115Z WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP -- PRIMARILY IN AREAS OF STRONGEST OROGRAPHIC ASCENT...THEN MOVE GENERALLY EWD TO SEWD ACROSS PORTIONS ERN ORE AND WRN ID...THROUGH AT LEAST 01Z. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HAIL AND STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS FROM MOST INTENSE TSTMS. LOOSELY ORGANIZED BAND OF CONVECTION ALSO SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY NWD FROM EXTREME NRN NV INTO UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER SRN ID. WITH BRIEF/ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TOO ISOLATED ATTM FOR WW...THOUGH SOME LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND MAY OCCUR. AIR MASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE ACROSS MUCH OF DISCUSSION AREA FROM JUST S OF NRN NV BORDER NWD ACROSS PORTIONS SRN/WRN ID AND ERN ORE. ANIMATED VIS IMAGERY INDICATES TWO SMALL MIDLEVEL VORTICES...EACH MOVING NEWD 15-20 KT -- 1. WEAKENING OVER PORTIONS ELMORE/CAMAS/BLAINE COUNTIES ID...MOVING OUT OF SNAKE RIVER VALLEY TOWARD MT BORDER... 2. OVER MALHEUR COUNTY ORE...HEADING TOWARD LOWER PORTIONS SNAKE RIVER VALLEY IN WRN-MOST ID. THIS FEATURE ALSO IS EVIDENT IN UPPER LEVELS ON MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY. DESTABILIZATION ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH LATTER FEATURE WILL BE JUXTAPOSED OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH MOST INTENSE LOW LEVEL HEATING -- OVER RELATIVELY LOW ELEVATIONS NEAR RIVER. BOTH ETA AND RUC ARE NOT HEATING/MIXING NEAR SFC AIR MASS OVER THIS REGION STRONGLY ENOUGH AND THEREFORE ARE UNDERESTIMATING BUOYANCY. ACCORDINGLY MODIFIED MODEL SOUNDINGS AND RAOBS WITH NOWCAST SFC TEMPS/DEW POINTS IN REGION SUGGEST LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR DRY ADIABATIC...WITH MLCAPE COMMONLY IN 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE...ATOP DEEP BOUNDARY LAYERS WITH INVERTED-V TYPE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES. CONSIDERABLE SUBCLOUD EVAPORATION POTENTIAL SUGGESTS MAINTENANCE OF BOTH HAIL AND DOWNDRAFT INTENSITY TO SFC...ESPECIALLY OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS WHERE MIXING EFFECTS ARE DEEPEST. ..EDWARDS.. 07/25/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PIH...MSO...BOI...LKN...PDT...MFR... 42401472 42061481 41701573 41671706 41851848 42221979 42382013 42662037 44381902 45031731 46091612 46171563 45671494 43301521 42671494 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 26 19:18:30 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 26 Jul 2004 14:18:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407261917.i6QJHxX08249@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 261917 SWOMCD SPC MCD 261916 WYZ000-MTZ000-UTZ000-IDZ000-NVZ000-262145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1778 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0216 PM CDT MON JUL 26 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN ID...WCNTRL WY AND NRN UT CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 261916Z - 262145Z TSTMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AND COULD PRODUCE ISOLD SEVERE WIND GUSTS/HAIL ACROSS CNTRL/ERN ID AND NRN UT. ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO SPREAD INTO WRN WY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A WW IS NOT WARRANTED GIVEN ISOLD SEVERE THREATS. SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL-DEVELOPED VORTICITY MAX CENTERED VCNTY NERN OWYHEE COUNTY ID...MOVING EAST AT 30 KTS. EXTRAPOLATION HAS THIS FEATURE INTO ERN ID BY 00Z. TSTMS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN FORMING OVER NERN NV AND PARTS OF CNTRL ID IN THE CHALLIS NATIONAL FOREST AREA. SATELLITE DERIVED GOES PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SUGGEST THAT MOISTURE HAS INCREASED IN THE LAST FEW HOURS...JUST OVER AN INCH ACROSS NRN UT AND CNTRL/SRN ID. THOUGH CLOUDS HAVE KEPT INSOLATION TO A PREMIUM ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE MORNING...AIR MASS HAS BEGUN TO DESTABILIZE JUST AHEAD OF THE LOW/MIDLEVEL IMPULSE AND LI/S ARE NEAR MINUS 3 DEGREES C. LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE VORTICITY MAX IS MODULATING/ENHANCING THE DIURNAL CYCLE. THOUGH THE WIND FLOW THROUGH THE TROPOSPHERE IS RATHER WEAK...AS THE VORT MAX CONTINUES EWD...SEMI-ORGANIZED MAINLY PULSE TSTMS MAY GIVE LOCALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS OR HAIL. ..RACY.. 07/26/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RIW...TFX...SLC...PIH...MSO...BOI...LKN... 41601439 43651469 44461205 44521026 43300969 41531124 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 26 23:10:07 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 26 Jul 2004 18:10:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407262309.i6QN9ZX08580@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 262309 SWOMCD SPC MCD 262308 NDZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-270115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1779 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0608 PM CDT MON JUL 26 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS EXTREME ERN MT...WRN ND...EXTREME NERN WY...WRN SD N OF BLACK HILLS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 262308Z - 270115Z SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP FROM WESTON/CROOK COUNTIES WY NNEWD TOWARD NWRN CORNER SD...THEN NNWWD ACROSS ND/MT BORDER REGION THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 00Z. THIS ACTIVITY IS FCST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS WRN 1/3 TO 1/4 OF ND...AND THAT PORTION OF NWRN SD N OF BLACK HILLS. ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH MOSTLY SMALL HAIL. WW NOT EXPECTED. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS TROUGH/CONFLUENCE LINE ALONG AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTIVE AXIS. FLOW IS BACKING E OF THIS FEATURE AND VEERING AT SOME STATIONS BEHIND IT...BECAUSE OF SOME COMBINATION OF 1. WEAK LEE-SIDE ISALLOBARIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH APCHG UPPER TROUGH OVER ID AND 2. SFC PRESSURE FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG DIABATIC HEATING. VERY DEEPLY MIXED AND RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYERS CHARACTERIZE ENVIRONMENT WITH CLOUD BASES ESTIMATED TO BE IN 500-550 MB LAYER...SFC DEW POINTS IN 40S F...AND MLCAPE 400-700 J/KG. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS AND AVAILABLE/INTERPOLATED VWP DATA INDICATE PRONOUNCED WEAKNESS OF BOTH LOW-MIDLEVEL SHEAR AND ABSOLUTE FLOW -- WITH WINDS GENERALLY AOB 10 KT IN 400-900 MB LAYER. THIS WILL LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION AND CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED OUTFLOW-DOMINANCE. HOWEVER...SHORT-LIVED THREAT EXISTS FOR LOCALIZED STRONG ASCENT ALONG COLD POOLS BEFORE SLOPE OF OUTFLOW BECOMES TOO SHALLOW. EXPECT POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND TO DIMINISH MARKEDLY AFTER ABOUT 02Z WITH BOTH EXPANSION OF OUTFLOW COVERAGE AND LOSS OF BUOYANCY ATTRIBUTABLE TO SFC DIABATIC COOLING. ..EDWARDS.. 07/26/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW... 49000226 44160227 44200514 48980514 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 26 23:12:02 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 26 Jul 2004 18:12:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407262311.i6QNBUX09044@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 262310 SWOMCD SPC MCD 262310 AZZ000-270115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1780 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0610 PM CDT MON JUL 26 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SCNTRL/SW AZ CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 262310Z - 270115Z TSTMS MAY EVOLVE SSW INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SCNTRL/SW AZ THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WITH ISOLD MICROBURSTS POSSIBLE...IN ADDITION TO A LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THREAT. A SEVERE WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED. TSTMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF CNTRL AZ. OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...ORGANIZED MESOSCALE COLD POOLS AMIDST MARGINAL STEERING FLOW -- CHARACTERIZED BY MEAN N/NW WINDS AROUND 10 KTS -- WILL LIKELY SUPPORT A PROPAGATION OF ISOLD TSTMS ONTO THE DESERT FLOOR. OBSERVED 21Z PHX SOUNDING MODIFIED FOR 23Z AMBIENT SFC CONDITIONS PORTRAYS AROUND 1100 J/KG MEAN MIXED CAPE IN THE LOWER DESERTS. WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER /40-45F DELTA SFC T-TD/ AND DOWNDRAFT CAPE AROUND 1200 J/KG SUGGESTS ISOLD MICROBURST/DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. IN ADDITION...MOIST AIRMASS /1.38 IN PW PER 21Z PHX RAOB/ AND RELATIVELY SLOW STORM MOTIONS WILL SUPPORT A LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT. ..GUYER.. 07/26/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...VEF... 34181290 33831161 33091066 32551068 32621155 32801232 33341345 33881412 34401378 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 27 17:50:19 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 27 Jul 2004 12:50:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407271749.i6RHnkX20443@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 271749 SWOMCD SPC MCD 271749 NJZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-PAZ000-DCZ000-272015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1781 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1249 PM CDT TUE JUL 27 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN VA...SRN/ERN MD...DE AND FAR SRN NJ CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 271749Z - 272015Z ISOLATED STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND MAY POSE A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THREAT WILL REMAIN LIMITED ENOUGH THAT A WW IS NOT LIKELY. EARLY AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS PLACES A SFC LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER FAR SERN PA WITH A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING SEWD FROM THE LOW INTO FAR SRN NJ. A THERMAL RIDGE EXISTED SOUTH OF THE LOW WITH TEMPERATURE READINGS IN THE LOWER-MID 80S AND DEWPTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. THIS WAS CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPES FROM 2000-2500 J/KG. SUBTLE MID LEVEL SPEED MAX SAMPLED BY AREA VWP/S WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AROUND 30 KTS OF FLOW AT 2-3 KM AND AROUND 40 KTS AT 6 KM OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE MUCH POORER OVER WRN VA/MD...RIBBON OF AROUND 6.5 C/KM LAPSE RATES NOTED ON RECENT RUC SOUNDINGS AND WV IMAGERY SHOULD MOVE NWD INTO THE AREA ENHANCING UPDRAFT STRENGTH. THE PARALLEL NATURE OF UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES WITH ORIENTATION OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING/CONVECTIVE GENESIS BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SRN MD INTO SCENTRAL VA SUGGESTS THAT IT WILL TAKE A FEW MORE HOURS FOR CONVECTION TO ALIGN ITSELF FAVORABLY TO DEEP SHEAR VECTOR AND BEGIN POSING A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. IN ADDITION...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP/STRENGTHEN FURTHER EAST ALONG THE SEA BREEZE FRONT ACROSS THE WRN DELMARVA PENINSULA AND/OR THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER FAR NRN DE/SRN NJ WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME BRIEFLY SUPERCELLULAR GIVEN BACKED LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES IN THESE AREAS. SUSTAINED LIFT AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT COUPLED WITH VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL AIRMASS WITH PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.8 IN. WILL LIKELY LEAD TO HEAVY RAINFALL RATES LOCALLY OVER 2 INCH/HR. ..CROSBIE.. 07/27/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX... 36987583 36727771 37377801 38797730 39627653 39937569 39437437 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 27 18:07:18 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 27 Jul 2004 13:07:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407271806.i6RI6lX27760@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 271805 SWOMCD SPC MCD 271805 COZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-272030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1782 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0105 PM CDT TUE JUL 27 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ECNTRL NV...SRN UT AND SWRN CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 271805Z - 272030Z THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING RISK OF DAMAGING/SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. A WW COULD BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON. TSTMS HAVE BEEN INTENSIFYING PER LATEST VSBL IMAGERY...ESPECIALLY OVER SCNTRL UT VCNTY/NE OF BRYCE CANYON AND OVER THE UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU OF SWRN CO. REGION REMAINS WITHIN DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ALONG LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 50 KT H25 JET STREAK AND TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY GROW/MATURE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STEEP LAPSE RATES...BOTH AT THE LOWER LEVELS AND ALOFT...WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONGER UPDRAFTS TO POSSIBLY ROTATE GIVEN STRONG UPPER FLOW REGIME IN PLACE. KINEMATIC SET-UP...FEATURING WLY FLOW THROUGH THE TROPOSPHERE...MAY ENCOURAGE TSTMS TO DEVELOP INTO E SHORT BOWING LINE SEGMENTS THAT MAY GIVE DAMAGING/SEVERE WIND GUSTS. OTHERWISE...HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. WHILE THE GREATER SEVERE THREATS APPEAR TO BE SITUATED FROM SERN UT INTO SWRN CO...ACCAS FIELD OVER ECNTRL NV MAY GROW INTO MORE SUBSTANTIAL TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WCNTRL/SWRN UT. THESE STORMS MAY ALSO POSE A DAMAGING WIND THREAT...BUT SHOULD BE MORE ISOLD THAN FARTHER EAST. ..RACY.. 07/27/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PUB...GJT...SLC...VEF...LKN... 37151010 37111189 39271638 39771542 39411301 38780980 39770716 37970583 37070581 37130861 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 27 18:35:41 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 27 Jul 2004 13:35:41 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407271835.i6RIZ7X08284@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 271834 SWOMCD SPC MCD 271834 AZZ000-272100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1783 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0134 PM CDT TUE JUL 27 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CNTRL AZ CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 271834Z - 272100Z SEVERE TSTM THREAT WILL BE INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN/CNTRL AZ. MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING/SEVERE WINDS AND POSSIBLY HAIL AND A WW MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON. VSBL SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGES SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION IS INCREASING ALONG THE MOGOLLON PLATEAU...THE BRADSHAW MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF PRESCOTT...OVER THE CARSON/BLACK MESAS IN NERN AZ AND NEAR THE SALT RIVER CANYON IN ERN GILA COUNTY. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW THE UNUSUAL UPPER FLOW REGIME IN PLACE WITH NWLY FLOW ALOFT AND RESIDUAL MONSOONAL MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. AREAS FROM THE RIM NWD ARE LOCATED WITHIN LEFT EXIT/DIFFLUENT REGION OF THE 50 KT H25 JETLET AND TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO GROW/MATURE THIS AFTERNOON. MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR THROUGH THE TROPOSPHERE MAY ENCOURAGE A FEW DISCRETE STORMS TO ROTATE AND PRODUCE HAIL IN ADDITION TO SEVERE/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. WNWLY FLOW REGIME WILL LIKELY LEAD TO COLD POOLS ELONGATING SSEWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CONVERGENCE ALONG THESE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...AIDED BY SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...WILL MOVE INTO THE CNTRL VLYS AROUND PHOENIX LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD BE IMPETUS FOR ADDITIONAL TSTMS INITIATION. AGAIN...VERTICAL SHEAR IS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AND POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR DISCRETE ROTATING STORMS WITH HAIL. OTHERWISE...DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. ..RACY.. 07/27/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...VEF... 33070910 33521185 33661280 34751377 35881414 36861361 35721248 35141234 35151167 35221062 36841069 36870993 36840925 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 27 19:29:53 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 27 Jul 2004 14:29:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407271929.i6RJTOX00957@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 271928 SWOMCD SPC MCD 271927 NDZ000-SDZ000-272130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1784 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0227 PM CDT TUE JUL 27 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL ND AND CENTRAL/WRN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 271927Z - 272130Z ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP BY 20Z ALONG A LEE TROUGH OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ND SWWD INTO WRN SD. MARGINAL SHEAR WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT. VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY SHOWS INCIPIENT TOWERING CU ALONG A LEE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SWRN ND INTO NWRN/WCENTRAL SD. MODIFIED SOUNDINGS FOR THE AREA AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH INDICATE WEAKENING CINH LESS THAN 50 J/KG AS OF 19Z. INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD THIS BOUNDARY HAS SUSTAINED MID-UPPER 50S DEWPTS DESPITE STRONG AFTERNOON MIXING. AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM A FEW MORE DEGREES...MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG...SUSTAINED CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND MINIMAL CINH SHOULD LEAD TO A FEW STRONG STORMS BY AROUND 21Z. MARGINAL MID LEVEL WINDS...15-20 KTS...AND WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER SSELY WINDS SHOULD LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS CONVECTION MOVES EWD INTO CENTRAL SD/ND. ..CROSBIE.. 07/27/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR... 44270345 45430306 46330222 47480091 47700013 46799921 45009927 43940056 43430180 43390340 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 27 20:03:20 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 27 Jul 2004 15:03:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407272002.i6RK2kX15570@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 272002 SWOMCD SPC MCD 272001 COZ000-UTZ000-272200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1785 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0301 PM CDT TUE JUL 27 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN UT AND SWRN CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 669... VALID 272001Z - 272200Z THREATS FOR DAMAGING/SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL CONTINUE ACROSS SRN UT AND SWRN CO. VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A STRONG UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MOVING ESEWD TOWARD WRN UT WITH DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW REGIME ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT BASIN. THIS HAS PROVIDED A LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FOR TSTMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS CLUSTER THAT MOVED INTO THE LAKE POWELL AREA HAS GENERATED A COLD POOL THAT IS ELONGATING DOWNSTREAM TOWARD NERN AZ. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THEN ARCS NWWD THROUGH NRN KANE-CNTRL IRON-WRN BEAVER COUNTIES IN UT. WSWLY FLOW REGIME THROUGH THE TROPOSPHERE IS IMPINGING ON THIS BOUNDARY AND NEW TSTMS ARE BACKBUILDING ALONG/NORTH OF IT. GIVEN PARCELS CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITHIN A MODERATELY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...THESE TSTMS COULD ALSO BECOME SEVERE WITH HAIL AND POSSIBLY HIGH WINDS. IN ADDITION...TRAINING OF THE TSTMS MAY POSE PROLONGED PERIOD OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF KANE COUNTY. FARTHER EAST...NUMEROUS TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER SWRN CO. AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COLLIDE...BRIEF INTENSIFICATION OF UPDRAFTS ARE POSSIBLE AND HAIL OR A MICROBURST OR TWO COULD OCCUR. ..RACY.. 07/27/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GJT...SLC... 37241377 38781377 38610811 37090805 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 27 22:11:59 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 27 Jul 2004 17:11:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407272211.i6RMBPX06905@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 272210 SWOMCD SPC MCD 272210 KSZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-280115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1786 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0510 PM CDT TUE JUL 27 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN/ERN NM...NWRN TX PANHANDLE...WRN OK PANHANDLE...EXTREME SERN CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 272210Z - 280115Z SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD TO SEWD ACROSS A ROUGHLY 60-80 NM WIDE CORRIDOR FROM PORTIONS DONA ANA/OTERO COUNTIES NM NEWD TO BACA COUNTY CO. A FEW DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS AND MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL MAY OCCUR...PRIMARILY BEFORE APPROXIMATELY 02Z. WW NOT ANTICIPATED BECAUSE OF ISOLATED/SHORT-DURATION NATURE OF SEVERE POTENTIAL. LOCALIZED RAIN RATES 1-2 INCHES/HOUR ARE EXPECTED IN MANY OF THE STRONGER PRECIP CORES ACROSS THIS REGION. MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY INDICATES DIFFUSE MID-UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY EWD ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL NM THROUGH REMAINDER EVENING. SUBTLE LARGE SCALE DESTABILIZATION ALOFT -- COMBINED WITH SFC MOIST ADVECTION -- OFFSETS LACK OF STRONGER SFC DIABATIC HEATING AND CONTRIBUTES TO MLCAPES 1000-1500 J/KG. LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK PER TCC PROFILER WINDS AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS...AOB 10 KT FROM SFC THROUGH ABOUT 500 MB. ASSOCIATED WEAK LOW-MIDLEVEL SHEAR WILL LIMIT ORGANIZATION OF STORMS...CAUSING MORPHOLOGIES TO TREND TO OUTFLOW-DOMINANT. INCREASINGLY MOIST INFLOW AIR...SLOW MOVING NATURE OF MUCH OF THIS CONVECTION...AND POTENTIAL FOR CELL MERGERS MAY ENHANCE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL ON LOCAL SCALES. ..EDWARDS.. 07/27/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ...EPZ... 32730690 35200482 36630392 37750275 37830203 37030202 35910249 34610341 32500562 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 27 22:31:04 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 27 Jul 2004 17:31:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407272230.i6RMUUX14571@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 272229 SWOMCD SPC MCD 272229 NDZ000-280030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1787 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0529 PM CDT TUE JUL 27 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...S CENTRAL ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 272229Z - 280030Z ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING OUTFLOW GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS WITH STORMS NEAR SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS S CENTRAL ND. WW NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO LIMITED NATURE OF THE SEVERE STORM THREAT. SEVERAL STORMS DEVELOPED ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM NW SD INTO S CENTRAL ND DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. MANY OF THESE STORMS HAVE SINCE COLLAPSED WHILE BEING UNDERCUT BY OUTFLOW IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF RELATIVELY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR. HOWEVER...STORMS MAY PERSIST LONGER IN A NARROW CORRIDOR ORIENTED NE-SW THROUGH THE BIS AREA WHERE EXISTING CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING NEWD INTO A REGION OF MLCAPE NEAR 1500 J/KG...AIDED BY CONVERGENCE/ASCENT ALONG A SURFACE COLD FRONT. SLOW SWD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT AND A NEAR-SURFACE FEED OF MODERATE INSTABILITY FROM THE NE MAY ALLOW STORMS TO DEVELOP NEWD ACROSS THE BIS AREA IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF LARGE HAIL AND STRONG OUTFLOW GUSTS. ..THOMPSON.. 07/27/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... 46200057 46300089 46550111 46770100 47529975 47619927 47409905 47069929 46669992 46300023 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 27 22:42:02 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 27 Jul 2004 17:42:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407272241.i6RMfXX18384@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 272240 SWOMCD SPC MCD 272240 AZZ000-NMZ000-280045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1788 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0540 PM CDT TUE JUL 27 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/SERN AZ CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 670... VALID 272240Z - 280045Z BROKEN AND NW-SE ORIENTED BAND OF TSTMS SHOULD SHIFT SLOWLY SWD ACROSS WW AREA AND INTO LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE GUSTS AND OCCASIONAL HAIL. INFLOW LAYER AIR MASS S OF RIM CONTAINS FAVORABLE INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS. MODIFIED 18Z PHX RAOB IS TWICE AS BUOYANT AS RUC SOUNDING -- 1600 J/KG MLCAPE COMPARED TO 800 -- BECAUSE OF APPARENT OVERMIXING OF RUC MOISTURE PROFILE. PRIND FORMER IS MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF THAT AIR MASS...BUT IN EITHER CASE DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAGER WILL SUPPORT MAINTENANCE OF INTENSE DOWNDRAFTS TO SFC. SLOW MOVEMENT AND TRAIN-ECHO CONFIGURATION OF SOME ACTIVITY -- PARTICULARLY OVER YAVAPAI COUNTY WHERE ACTIVITY IS ORIENTED MOST PARALLEL TO DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW VECTOR -- WILL EXACERBATE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN THREAT...WITH SOME CORES PRODUCING 1-2 INCH/HOUR RATES FOR SHORT PERIODS. ..EDWARDS.. 07/27/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...VEF...EPZ...TWC... 34021189 34411285 34891341 35201353 35291332 35151280 34551172 34091156 31980904 33771329 35521329 33740906 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 27 22:54:04 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 27 Jul 2004 17:54:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407272253.i6RMrVX22204@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 272252 SWOMCD SPC MCD 272252 UTZ000-272345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1789 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0552 PM CDT TUE JUL 27 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN UT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 669... VALID 272252Z - 272345Z ISOLATED STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS AND HAIL REMAIN POSSIBLE FROM TSTMS OVER REMAINING BUT SHRINKING PORTIONS WW AREA. SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH 02Z AS INCREASINGLY DEEP/EXPANSIVE OUTFLOW POOL STABILIZES AIR MASS ACROSS MORE OF EXTREME SRN UT. THEREFORE WW PROBABLY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 00Z AS SCHEDULED WITHOUT FURTHER ISSUANCE OVER SRN UT OR NRN AZ. OVER RELATIVELY LIMITED AREA UNDISTURBED BY PRIOR/ONGOING CONVECTION -- PRIMARILY PORTIONS WASHINGTON/KANE COUNTIES...AIR MASS REMAINS AT LEAST MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WITH 500-900 J/KG MLCAPE INVOF CO RIVER. LOW-MIDLEVEL FLOW AND SHEAR IS WEAK WITH 10-20 KT WLY FLOW BELOW 400 MB. ..EDWARDS.. 07/27/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SLC... 37041166 37061388 37981390 37711243 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 28 01:05:23 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 27 Jul 2004 20:05:23 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407280104.i6S14nX32359@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 280104 SWOMCD SPC MCD 280103 NMZ000-AZZ000-280230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1790 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0803 PM CDT TUE JUL 27 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL/SERN AZ CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 670... VALID 280103Z - 280230Z POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSTMS OVER GILA COUNTIES ATTM...AND STRONG CONVECTION SEWD ACROSS GRAHAM COUNTY...MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING GUSTS IN NEXT HOUR BEFORE WEAKENING. ANOTHER AREA OF TSTMS HAS MOVED INTO NRN MARICOPA COUNTY AND PRODUCED AN OUTFLOW POOL THAT IS SURGING AWAY FROM HIGHEST REFLECTIVITIES ATTM. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SHOULD CONTINUE TO SURGE SWD ACROSS REMAINDER PHX AREA AND OVER PORTIONS SRN MARICOPA/WRN PINAL COUNTIES BEFORE DISSIPATING. MEANWHILE...PARENT CONVECTION NOW OVER NRN PHX METRO WILL MOVE SEWD AND WEAKEN...PRODUCING OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR SEVERE LEVELS. WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL OVERALL SHOULD DECREASE MARKEDLY AFTER ABOUT ANOTHER HOUR OVER THIS REGION...BECAUSE OF EXPANDING OUTFLOW POOLS...WEAKENING DIABATIC HEATING AND DIMINISHING CONVECTIVE TRENDS. REMAINDER WW PROBABLY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 02Z WITHOUT FURTHER ISSUANCE. ..EDWARDS.. 07/28/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EPZ...TWC...FGZ...PSR... 31980904 33771329 35521329 33740906 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 29 18:55:35 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 29 Jul 2004 13:55:35 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407291854.i6TIswD19669@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 291854 SWOMCD SPC MCD 291853 NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-292130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1792 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0153 PM CDT THU JUL 29 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SE WY...WRN NEB...NE CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 291853Z - 292130Z RISK OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS APPEARS LIKELY TO INCREASE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF WW. FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO EASTERN MONTANA. THIS FEATURE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN MODERATELY STRONG NORTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW REGIME WHICH EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. AXIS OF STRONGER 2 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS HAS DEVELOPED FROM WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL WYOMING AHEAD OF UPPER SYSTEM...AND WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD WITH STRONGER LOW/MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. STRENGTHENING LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION... STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND WEAK LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION ARE ALL CONTRIBUTING TO DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. BY PEAK HEATING...RELATIVELY DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH CAPE OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG...AND MINIMAL INHIBITION...APPEARS LIKELY FROM PARTS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND NORTHEAST COLORADO. THIS SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN ENVIRONMENT WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION. INITIATION APPEARS POSSIBLE BY 20-21Z NORTH/NORTHEAST OF CHEYENNE INTO THE SCOTTSBLUFF/SIDNEY NEB AND AKRON CO AREAS. SUBSEQUENT EVOLUTION/INTENSIFICATION APPEARS LIKELY...WITH A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS... SLOWLY DEVELOPING SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ..KERR.. 07/29/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS... 42830543 42960405 42640301 41800211 40570208 40140291 40500341 41220364 41480418 41940421 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 29 21:22:16 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 29 Jul 2004 16:22:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407292121.i6TLLaD23911@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 292121 SWOMCD SPC MCD 292120 NEZ000-SDZ000-WYZ000-292145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1793 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0420 PM CDT THU JUL 29 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CENTRAL SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 292120Z - 292145Z WW WILL BE ISSUED SOON FOR MUCH OF WRN AND CENTRAL SD. 18Z ETA INDICATED A STRONG SIGNAL FOR CONTINUED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT INTO THE EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF WRN INTO CENTRAL SD... EXCEPT FOR NRN PORTIONS OF THIS AREA. DESPITE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL INSTABILITY...STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL FAVOR THE THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS. ..PETERS.. 07/29/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS... 45350392 45450111 44829997 42860019 42820303 43690433 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 29 21:52:00 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 29 Jul 2004 16:52:00 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407292151.i6TLpND03639@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 292150 SWOMCD SPC MCD 292150 KSZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-292215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1794 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0450 PM CDT THU JUL 29 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 292150Z - 292215Z WW MAY BE REQUIRED SOON FOR SOUTHEAST CO. MID-LEVEL NWLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE EVENING ACROSS SERN CO RESULTING IN A FURTHER INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS COMBINED WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 500 TO AROUND 1000 J/KG AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT A POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS. ..PETERS.. 07/29/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ... 37030521 38150486 39060397 39050199 37820178 36980219 36710410 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 29 22:32:19 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 29 Jul 2004 17:32:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407292231.i6TMVdD18502@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 292230 SWOMCD SPC MCD 292230 SDZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-292300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1795 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0530 PM CDT THU JUL 29 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN INTO CENTRAL NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 671...672... VALID 292230Z - 292300Z WW WILL BE ISSUED SOON FOR PORTIONS OF NRN NEB. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS HAVE CONTINUED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NWRN NEB AND SWRN SD DURING THE LAST HOUR. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING SEWD TOWARD THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL ATTM ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD AND NORTH CENTRAL NEB...A PLUME OF STEEP LAPSE RATES PROGGED TO SPREAD EWD THIS EVENING WILL AID IN FURTHER DESTABILIZATION. THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND EWD INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL SD AND NORTH CENTRAL NEB...WHERE STRONGER FORCING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...AN INCREASING LLJ INTO THIS AREA AND THE BEST CAPE/SHEAR VALUES ARE EXPECTED. A MORE ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL EXTEND SWD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEB WHERE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE WEAKER. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT OVER NERN-EAST CENTRAL CO WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR SEVERE STORMS. ..PETERS.. 07/29/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS... 39110480 42940520 43310408 44960401 44909869 43079867 42159858 41829889 41489948 40580144 40000205 39060207 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 29 23:17:17 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 29 Jul 2004 18:17:17 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407292316.i6TNGbD00645@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 292316 SWOMCD SPC MCD 292315 KSZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-300015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1796 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0615 PM CDT THU JUL 29 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 292315Z - 300015Z ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS SERN CO...BUT A WW IS NOT EXPECTED ATTM. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS SERN CO THIS EVENING AND THE AIR MASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE... STRONGER UPPER FORCING FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THIS AREA. STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP ACROSS SERN CO WILL HAVE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 1000-1500 J/KG/ AND 30-35 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS...WITH AN ISOLATED THREAT OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ..PETERS.. 07/29/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ... 36840513 37490506 38500426 38980220 37680195 37050260 36700320 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 30 00:18:08 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 29 Jul 2004 19:18:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407300017.i6U0HSD19183@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 300017 SWOMCD SPC MCD 300016 SDZ000-300115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1797 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0716 PM CDT THU JUL 29 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN TO SOUTH CENTRAL SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 672... VALID 300016Z - 300115Z DAMAGING WIND THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 01Z ACROSS SWRN SD FROM THE COUNTIES OF SRN ZIEBACH TO STANLEY AND WRN HUGHES/WRN SULLY. SMALL BOW ECHO...CURRENTLY MOVING SEWD AT 35 KT ACROSS SRN ZIEBACH COUNTY SD...SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING SEWD. ALTHOUGH THE AIR MASS ACROSS THIS AREA IS MARGINALLY UNSTABLE /MLCAPE BELOW 500 J/KG/...A COLD POOL ESTABLISHED WITH THIS BOW MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN THE SEWD MOVEMENT TO RESULT IN A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. ..PETERS.. 07/30/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...UNR... 44960393 44899871 43079871 43090398 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 30 01:12:29 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 29 Jul 2004 20:12:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407300111.i6U1BpD02740@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 300111 SWOMCD SPC MCD 300110 KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-SDZ000-WYZ000-300145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1798 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0810 PM CDT THU JUL 29 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN WY/NEB PANHANDLE/NERN CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 671... VALID 300110Z - 300145Z WW 671 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 02Z. OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SHOW AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY EXTENDING FROM SERN WY/SWRN SD SWD ACROSS ERN CO. THE LOSS OF DAY TIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL STABILIZATION OF THIS AIR MASS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. UNTIL THEN...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE... GIVEN STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND THE MODERATE INSTABILITY SUPPORTING A HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT. ..PETERS.. 07/30/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS... 41930504 42990518 42990226 39070204 39090479 40820498 41080434 41430414 41570428 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 30 02:17:59 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 29 Jul 2004 21:17:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407300217.i6U2HUD22714@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 300216 SWOMCD SPC MCD 300216 SDZ000-NEZ000-300245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1799 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0916 PM CDT THU JUL 29 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH CENTRAL NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 672...673... VALID 300216Z - 300245Z WW 672 AND WW 673 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 03Z. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW TWO BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS WW 673 AND FAR SRN-SERN WW 672. A STRENGTHENING LLJ NOSING INTO WRN-CENTRAL NEB IS EXPECTED TO SUSTAIN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITHIN A WAA REGIME OVER WRN/CENTRAL NEB AND SRN SD. HOWEVER...OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS THE AIR MASS FEEDING THIS ACTIVITY STABILIZES WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ..PETERS.. 07/30/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR... 41340205 42750206 43140209 43410160 43660104 43649971 43609870 43029841 41649837 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 30 18:56:25 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 30 Jul 2004 13:56:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407301855.i6UItgD27325@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 301855 SWOMCD SPC MCD 301854 OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-302100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1800 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0154 PM CDT FRI JUL 30 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IN/N CNTRL KY THROUGH MUCH OF OHIO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 301854Z - 302100Z RISK OF GUSTY...POTENTIALLY DAMAGING...WINDS APPEARS LIKELY TO INCREASE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO. WW COULD BECOME NECESSARY. RAPID INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY. THIS IS OCCURRING AS VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER... WITH LOWER/MID 70S DEW POINTS...HEATS TO CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ...PERHAPS AIDED BY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW LIFTING NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER...ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN INDIANA. AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON... LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS WILL STRENGTH ACROSS OHIO AS BULK OF RECENT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SPREADS NORTH OF THE RIVER. DEW POINTS ACROSS OHIO ARE CLIMBING TOWARD 70F...AND WITH MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE INCREASING TO 1500-2000 J/KG...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/INCREASE. EVOLUTION INTO LARGER CONVECTIVE CLUSTER APPEARS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE 21-23Z TIME FRAME ACROSS THE DAYTON/COLUMBUS/MANSFIELD AREAS OF CENTRAL OHIO. AS THIS OCCURS...POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS LIKELY WILL INCREASE AS STRONGER MOMENTUM ASSOCIATED WITH 30 TO 40 KT LOW/MID-LEVEL JET GRADUALLY GETS TRANSFERRED TO THE SURFACE. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...FAVORABLY MOIST/BUOYANT SURFACE-BASED AIR MASS MAY ALSO BE SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADOES. ..KERR.. 07/30/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN...LMK... 39778449 40218402 40918370 41668302 41678118 40418080 39058252 39398208 38488366 38238465 38728488 39078520 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 30 19:11:49 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 30 Jul 2004 14:11:49 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407301911.i6UJB6D01803@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 301910 SWOMCD SPC MCD 301909 WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-302115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1801 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0209 PM CDT FRI JUL 30 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SCNTRL MN/WRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 301909Z - 302115Z LATEST MESOANALYSIS PLACES SFC LOW NEAR LVN WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD NEAR FSD. SFC LOW WILL LIKELY DEEPEN AND SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR STORMS...WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NRN MN ENHANCING LARGE SCALE LIFT. STORMS HAVE BEEN BUBBLING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH A BROKEN LINE DEVELOPING FROM THE SW SUBURBS OF THE TWIN CITIES SOUTH TO NEAR THE IA BORDER. WARM SECTOR HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE...WITH SBCAPE VALUES NEAR 2000 J/KG ACROSS S CNTRL MN. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 8.0 C/KM SUGGEST THERE IS A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL WITH STORMS. MODERATELY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF AROUND 35 KT PER LATEST VAD WIND DATA SHOULD FURTHER CONTRIBUTE TO STORM ORGANIZATION. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A WW IF STORMS CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE/STRENGTHEN. ..TAYLOR.. 07/30/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX...MPX... 43429110 43529386 44729398 45219348 45189126 44599001 43588974 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 30 21:14:00 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 30 Jul 2004 16:14:00 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407302113.i6ULDOD21958@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 302112 SWOMCD SPC MCD 302112 OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-302145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1802 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0412 PM CDT FRI JUL 30 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN-CENTRAL KY INTO FAR SRN IND INTO FAR SWRN OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 302112Z - 302145Z TORNADO WATCH MAY BE ISSUED SHORTLY FOR PORTIONS OF WRN-CENTRAL KY INTO FAR SRN IND AND FAR SWRN OH. PARAMETERS HAVE BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR POSSIBLE TORNADOES ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN-CENTRAL KY INTO FAR SRN IND AND FAR SWRN OH...WHERE THE AIR MASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE GIVEN SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S. 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 20 KT AND LCL VALUES ARE LOW SUPPORTING A TORNADO THREAT. REGIONAL RADARS ALREADY SHOWED A ROTATING STORM OVER NRN CHRISTIAN COUNTY MOVING NEWD INTO MUHLENBERG COUNTY. ..PETERS.. 07/30/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH... 36598736 37088805 38478688 39338447 39138362 38598326 38058342 37348410 36658562 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 30 22:27:04 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 30 Jul 2004 17:27:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407302226.i6UMQMD15943@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 302225 SWOMCD SPC MCD 302225 OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-310030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1803 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0525 PM CDT FRI JUL 30 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR WRN OK/SWRN KS/TX PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 302225Z - 310030Z ...ISOLATED SVR STORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREAT... TOWERING CUMULUS/CBS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG A BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM GAG INTO NW OK AND ALONG A DRYLINE EXTENDING INTO THE TX PANHANDLE PER LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG. STRONG CONVECTIVE INHIBITION HAS THUS FAR PREVENTED ANY DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS...BUT IT NOW APPEARS CAP IS WEAKENING...SO ANY STORMS WHICH CAN DEVELOP MAY BECOME SEVERE. FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINED WITH MODERATELY STRONG NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS WITH THE MAIN THREAT FROM LARGE HAIL. LOCAL HAIL MODEL SUGGESTS THAT HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. COVERAGE OF STORMS SHOULD BE ISOLATED...SO A WW MAY NOT BE NECESSARY. ..TAYLOR/PETERS.. 07/30/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB... 38610184 37719880 36439871 35099945 34750115 36480181 37880232 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 31 00:05:40 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 30 Jul 2004 19:05:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407310005.i6V056D11019@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 310004 SWOMCD SPC MCD 310004 KYZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-310100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1804 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0704 PM CDT FRI JUL 30 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL KY/SRN IND INTO FAR SWRN OH CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 674... VALID 310004Z - 310100Z PARAMETERS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL KY INTO SRN IND AND FAR SWRN OH. AREA VAD DATA FROM KY/CENTRAL-SRN IND INTO SWRN OH SHOW LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES HAVE INCREASED...BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. DESPITE WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...THE SHEAR VALUES AND MOIST AIR MASS WITH LOW LCLS WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES WITHIN TORNADO WATCH 674 FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. A TORNADO THREAT WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF WW 674 WHERE SIMILAR SHEAR PARAMETERS EXIST...BUT AREAL COVERAGE APPEARS TO SMALL TO WARRANT AN ADDITIONAL WW ATTM. ..PETERS.. 07/31/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND... 36688687 37328684 37568637 38248637 39078650 39568546 39598414 37828429 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 31 16:34:19 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 31 Jul 2004 11:34:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407311633.i6VGXfD31162@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 311632 SWOMCD SPC MCD 311632 NHZ000-VTZ000-MAZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-311830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1805 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1132 AM CDT SAT JUL 31 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NE PA/ERN NY INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 311632Z - 311830Z RISK OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS APPEARS TO BE SLOWLY INCREASING...AND WW COULD BECOME NECESSARY WITHIN NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER WARM SECTOR ARE LIMITING FACTOR WITH REGARD TO DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL REMAIN THE CASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AS PRIMARY UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO ONTARIO/WESTERN QUEBEC. HOWEVER...IN SOUTHWESTERLY SUBTROPICAL BELT EAST OF UPPER TROUGH...A MID/HIGH-LEVEL IMPULSE IS EVIDENT IN LATEST IMAGERY LIFTING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS FEATURE APPEARS TO BE PROVIDING FORCING FOR NARROW CONVECTIVE BAND...NOW SLOWLY INTENSIFYING SOUTHEAST OF WATERTOWN NY INTO THE WILLIAMSPORT PA AREA. DESPITE MINIMAL CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY...VERY MOIST/CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT WILL SUPPORT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION THROUGH THE PEAK HEATING HOURS FROM NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE HUDSON/CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. WHILE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT DOES NOT APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR HAIL...MOMENTUM ASSOCIATED WITH 40 KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS NEW YORK STATE SUPPORTS RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS IT LIFTS TOWARD THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF THIS MOMENTUM WILL BE ENHANCED AS RAINFALL RATES IN DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE BAND INTENSIFY DURING THE 18-21Z TIME ACROSS THE BURLINGTON VT/ALBANY NY/WILKES-BARRE/SCRANTON AREAS. ..KERR.. 07/31/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP... 45057154 44267190 43497249 42657311 41447443 41017543 40987621 41187664 41917576 42577522 43427458 44917392 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 31 17:13:44 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 31 Jul 2004 12:13:44 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407311712.i6VHCwD11227@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 311710 SWOMCD SPC MCD 311710 MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-311945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1806 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1210 PM CDT SAT JUL 31 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN DAKOTAS...WRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 311710Z - 311945Z RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND WW COULD BECOME NECESSARY WITHIN NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS. AHEAD OF LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING IN THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES...LOWER/MID-TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION HAS BECOME FOCUSED ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN DAKOTAS/WESTERN MINNESOTA. THIS APPEARS TO BE STRONGEST...BENEATH NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW REGIME... IN A CORRIDOR NORTH/NORTHEAST OF ABERDEEN SD INTO THE REDWOOD FALLS MN AREA. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT /STEEPENING LAPSE RATES/...IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING...IS SUPPORTING FAIRLY RAPID DESTABILIZATION...AND MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE IS PROGGED TO EXCEED 2000 J/KG BY PEAK HEATING. ON NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL CAP...FORCING IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT SURFACE-BASED CONVECTIVE INITIATION AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES APPROACH/EXCEED 80F THIS AFTERNOON. THIS APPEARS POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS THE 19-20Z TIME FRAME...WITH FURTHER INCREASE/INTENSIFICATION LIKELY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. SHEAR PROFILES ON NOSE OF SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET ARE ALREADY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...AND THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...POSSIBLY ISOLATED TORNADOES BY LATE AFTERNOON. ..KERR.. 07/31/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS... 46729737 46739590 45849456 44469395 43819378 43289453 43379605 44249655 45159739 45549838 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 31 20:08:36 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 31 Jul 2004 15:08:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407312007.i6VK7rD30907@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 312007 SWOMCD SPC MCD 312006 MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-MAZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-312130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1807 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0306 PM CDT SAT JUL 31 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN PA/NJ/ERN NY//NRN MD/WRN NEW ENGLAND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 675... VALID 312006Z - 312130Z ...THREAT FOR WET MICROBURST WINDS CONTINUES ACROSS WW 675 AND ERN PORTIONS OF PA... MAIN INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH ERN PA/SERN NY WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S. BROKEN LINE OF STORMS NOW EXTENDING FROM BVT/BGM/SEG/MRB IS INTENSIFYING AS IT MOVES INTO THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG. FAIRLY STRONG SFC RIDGING AND STRONG LOW LEVEL SWLY FLOW SUGGEST STORMS WILL PROPAGATE MORE TO THE NORTHEAST THAN EAST...AFFECTING SRN PORTIONS OF WW 675 AND ERN PA NEXT 1-3 HOURS. FLOW IS WEAKER FARTHER SOUTH...SO MAIN THREAT WILL BE CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE WATCH AND NERN PA. SINCE LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK...HAIL THREAT WILL BE MINIMIZED WITH WET MICROBURSTS THE GREATER CONCERN. ..TAYLOR.. 07/31/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX... 44927100 41777335 39717629 39477829 43257494 45037337 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 31 21:45:44 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 31 Jul 2004 16:45:44 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407312144.i6VLixD25940@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 312144 SWOMCD SPC MCD 312143 IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-312245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1808 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0443 PM CDT SAT JUL 31 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN SD...NERN NEB...NWRN IA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 676... VALID 312143Z - 312245Z ...WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SERN SD...NERN NEB...NWRN IA SHORTLY... STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING APPEARS TO BE COMPENSATING FOR APPARENT WEAKNESS IN LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SD/NEB BORDER WHERE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEEPEN. THIS ACTIVITY IS RELATIVELY HIGH BASED WITHIN STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT...BUT MAY GRADUALLY LOWER AS UPDRAFTS ENCOUNTER INCREASINGLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT WHERE SFC DEW POINTS ARE HOLDING IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70F. LARGE SCALE WARM ADVECTION REGIME APPEARS CONDUCIVE FOR ACTIVITY TO PROPAGATE SEWD ONCE UPDRAFTS BECOME ESTABLISHED. STRONG INSTABILITY FAVORS AT LEAST LARGE HAIL AND WIND...AND PERHAPS A TORNADO. WW IS BEING CONSIDERED. ..DARROW.. 07/31/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...LBF... 43679741 43069538 41769572 41639744 42579874 43329847 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 4 06:01:25 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 04 Jul 2004 01:01:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407030602.i6362I117292@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 030601 SWOMCD SPC MCD 030601 OKZ000-TXZ000-030730- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1479 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0101 AM CDT SAT JUL 03 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN TX...SWRN TO ERN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 030601Z - 030730Z RAPID STRONG TO SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SWRN OK AND NWRN TX MAY REQUIRE A SEVERE TSTM WATCH SHORTLY. TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED RAPIDLY ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DEVELOPING SEWD INTO VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND STRENGTHENING SWLY LLJ ACROSS SWRN OK EARLY TODAY. NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW ATOP INCREASING SWLY LLJ WAS RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY PARAMETERS SUGGEST LARGE HAIL IS LIKELY FROM THIS ACTIVITY AS IT SPREADS/DEVELOPS ESEWD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. FURTHERMORE...THE OUTFLOW INTERSECTS THE LARGER SCALE FRONTAL ZONE/WIND SHIFT ACROSS NCNTRL OK WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION CONTINUING ALONG LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE ZONE FROM NERN OK INTO THE OZARKS. STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO INCREASE/BACKBUILD ACROSS PARTS OF ERN OK THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND THIS AREA WILL ALSO BE MONITORED FOR A PSBL WATCH. ..CARBIN.. 07/03/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...LUB...AMA... 34419539 34159671 34029818 33909888 34800049 35409901 36249790 36329509 35209488 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 4 08:20:09 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 04 Jul 2004 03:20:09 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407030821.i638L2122607@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 030820 SWOMCD SPC MCD 030819 ARZ000-OKZ000-031045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1480 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0319 AM CDT SAT JUL 03 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK/WRN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 030819Z - 031045Z INTENSE TSTMS CONTINUE TO BACKBUILD ACROSS NERN OK EARLY TODAY. AN ISOLD LARGE HAIL OR STRONG WIND EVENT IS PSBL AS WELL AS VERY HEAVY RAIN. NO WATCH IS BEING ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. WELL ESTABLISHED COLD POOL AND SWD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS DEVELOPED ALONG SRN EDGE OF LINEAR MCS FROM NRN MCINTOSH AND MUSKOGEE COUNTIES IN ERN OK ESEWD TO NRN SCOTT AND YELL COUNTIES IN WRN AR. RECENT NLY WIND GUST TO 40KT WAS REPORTED BEHIND THE OUTFLOW AT FSM. STRONG LOW LEVEL MASS INFLOW ACROSS ERN OK COUPLED WITH MODEST WNWLY MEAN LAYER FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO FAVOR UPWIND PROPAGATION OF CELLULAR ELEMENTS ALONG THE WRN END OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THE LARGER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX SHOULD DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH IN THE WAKE OF THE OUTFLOW ACROSS WRN AR. UPDRAFTS IN OK WILL BE IN BETTER PROXIMITY TO STRONG INSTABILITY AND SHEAR AND A COUPLE WIND/HAIL EVENTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...THIS POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN LIMITED COMPARED TO THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCAL FLASH FLOODING FROM TRAINING/BACKBUILDING CONVECTION. ..CARBIN.. 07/03/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...OUN... 35049402 34369408 34039447 34149535 34499582 34899605 35259616 35669617 35909613 36139584 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 4 08:33:13 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 04 Jul 2004 03:33:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407030834.i638Y6126772@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 030832 SWOMCD SPC MCD 030832 TXZ000-OKZ000-031030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1481 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0332 AM CDT SAT JUL 03 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN TX...SWRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 538... VALID 030832Z - 031030Z SEVERE MCS MOVING SEWD AT 45-50KT ACROSS THE RED RIVER AND INTO NWRN TX EARLY TODAY. SYSTEM APPEARS TO HAVE DEVELOPED A SMALL MESOLOW WITH WELL DEFINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE LOW SWWD INTO NWRN TX. MESOSCALE ASCENT NEAR THE LOW AND ON THE OUTFLOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUSTAIN STRONG UPDRAFTS EARLY TODAY DESPITE RELATIVELY HIGH CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ACROSS NWRN TX. A NEW WATCH WILL BE NEEDED AHEAD OF THIS COMPLEX GIVEN STRONG SEWD PROPAGATION...UNSTABLE AIRMASS...AND MESOSCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT. A CORRIDOR OF WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL SHOULD DEVELOP SEWD ACROSS THE DFW AREA IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. ..CARBIN.. 07/03/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT... 32689627 32629860 34579981 34239692 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 4 11:15:24 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 04 Jul 2004 06:15:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407031116.i63BGG109596@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 031115 SWOMCD SPC MCD 031115 ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-031215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1482 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0615 AM CDT SAT JUL 03 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN OK/N CNTRL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 539... VALID 031115Z - 031215Z ...MCS IS RAPIDLY WEAKENING ACROSS NCNTRL TX AND WATCH MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY... OUTFLOW RECENTLY PASSED THROUGH DFW/FTW GENERALLY PRODUCING 30 KT GUSTS. MCS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING AS OUTFLOW MOVES OUT AHEAD OF MAIN CONVECTIVE LINE. STORMS ACROSS SE OK NEAR RED RIVER ARE DEVELOPING IN WARM AIR ADVECTION ZONE AND MAY BRIEFLY FLARE UP...AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH ERN OK/AR MCS EVENTUALLY INTERACTS WITH STORMS. AT THIS TIME...NO ADDITIONAL WATCH IS EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM...PENDING THAT STORMS DO NOT INCREASE IN INTENSITY. ..TAYLOR.. 07/03/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... 32189740 33759837 34249572 34239525 33469418 33039414 32169423 32169574 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 4 16:37:59 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 04 Jul 2004 11:37:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407031638.i63Gcp115276@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 031638 SWOMCD SPC MCD 031638 INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-031845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1483 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1138 AM CDT SAT JUL 03 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF IL AND IND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 031638Z - 031845Z CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND POSSIBILITY OF WW. BANDS OF CONVECTION ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP EAST OF CLOSED LOW NOW LIFTING INTO SOUTHEAST IOWA...AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS TRAILING SOUTHWARD TO 30+ KT CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL JET NOSING INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS/INDIANA. THIS IS OCCURRING AS RELATIVELY LOW CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S ARE BEING REACHED...AND ACTIVITY SHOULD INTENSIFY NEXT FEW HOURS AS 100 MB MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE INCREASES IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG. CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY IS LIMITED BY FAIRLY WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WITH WARM PROFILES ALSO TENDING TO MINIMIZE HAIL POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...MODELS SUGGEST SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENING FROM 20 TO 30 KT ALONG AN AXIS FROM WESTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH NORTHERN INDIANA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRENGTHENING SHEAR PROFILES ABOVE WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER IN WARM SECTOR OF SURFACE CYCLONE PROGGED TO LIFT FROM NORTHEAST MISSOURI INTO NORTHWEST ILLINOIS BY AROUND 21Z. GIVEN FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...WITH VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER /LOWER 70S DEW POINTS/...THIS MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES IN MORE VIGOROUS CONVECTION. WHILE SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FROM NEAR THE ILLINOIS/INDIANA BORDER EASTWARD ACROSS INDIANA...VERTICAL VORTICITY ALREADY PRESENT IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER SUPPORTS RISK FOR ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADOES ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL ILLINOIS AS WELL. ..KERR.. 07/03/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...DVN... 41339038 42078968 42108771 41448617 39628510 38778565 37808734 38168777 39248846 40139006 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 4 19:11:25 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 04 Jul 2004 14:11:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407031912.i63JCG128041@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 031910 SWOMCD SPC MCD 031910 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-032145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1484 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0210 PM CDT SAT JUL 03 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND...NWRN MN...NERN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 031910Z - 032145Z ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WW NOT ANTICIPATED. MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES TO STEEPEN LAPSE RATES AS WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES EWD ALONG CANADIAN / U.S. BORDER. MEANWHILE...SURFACE TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF COLD FRONT HAVE RISEN INTO THE LOWER 80S F. MLCAPE HAS INCREASED TO NEAR 2000 J/KG AS A RESULT. AREA VWPS INDICATE WEAK AND UNIDIRECTIONALLY WLY WIND FIELDS IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS WITH THE STRONGEST FLOW OVER FAR NWRN MN / NERN ND WHERE MID LEVEL FLOW ON THE ORDER OF 30 KTS EXISTS. SHORT HODOGRAPHS WITH NEGLIGIBLE LOW LEVEL HELICITY IN THESE AREAS ARE NOT VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER...GIVEN VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND RESULTANT LARGE VERTICAL ACCELERATIONS...A FEW STORMS WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN STRONG ENOUGH UPDRAFTS FOR SOME SEVERE HAIL. UPPER LEVEL FLOW APPROACHING 50 KTS MAY ALLOW FOR BETTER ORGANIZATION WITH TIME OVER EXTREME NERN ND / NWRN MN NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER. IF THIS OCCURS...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. OVERALL MEAN WIND SPEEDS THROUGH THE TROPOSPHERE ARE GENERALLY LESS THAN 20 KTS SO SEVERE WIND DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE OF PARTICULAR CONCERN. ..JEWELL.. 07/03/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS... 48519377 47519434 46229526 45159644 45219868 45970020 47370049 49009993 49009516 49409513 49339483 48769469 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 4 19:44:54 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 04 Jul 2004 14:44:54 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407031945.i63Jjj105068@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 031944 SWOMCD SPC MCD 031944 INZ000-KYZ000-MIZ000-ILZ000-032145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1485 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0244 PM CDT SAT JUL 03 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IL/IND CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 540... VALID 031944Z - 032145Z CONTINUE WW. PRIMARY CONVECTIVE BAND NOW APPEARS TO BE THAT WHICH EXTENDS WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF CHICAGO THROUGH THE CHAMPAIGN AREA...BEFORE CURVING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD BOWLING GREEN KY. THIS IS IN ZONE OF STRONGER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH DIFFERENTIAL POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION AHEAD OF MID-LEVEL TROUGH...WHICH WILL SLOWLY ROTATE NORTH NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CHICAGO/INDIANAPOLIS AND LOUISVILLE AREAS BY 03/23-04/00Z. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS BOUNDARY LAYER HAS HEATED TO AROUND 90F IN NARROW CORRIDOR NORTHEAST OF LOUISVILLE INTO THE GRISSOM AFB AREA OF NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA...ALONG WHICH INSTABILITY IS NOW MAXIMIZED WITH MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE TO 2000 J/KG. AS FORCING OVERSPREADS THIS AXIS...FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF UPDRAFTS APPEARS LIKELY. RISK OF DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS SHOULD INCREASE NEAR HEAVIER RAIN CORES NEXT FEW HOURS...WHILE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO CONTINUES AS LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS EAST OF THE INDIANA/ILLINOIS BORDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ..KERR.. 07/03/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...LOT... 41618869 42028852 42148800 42198735 41688632 41048576 40168547 38918529 38188573 38168626 38668687 39718718 40788760 41348859 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 4 20:51:06 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 04 Jul 2004 15:51:06 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407032051.i63Kpv122998@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 032051 SWOMCD SPC MCD 032050 SDZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-032245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1486 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0350 PM CDT SAT JUL 03 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN SD...WRN NEBRASKA...NERN CO...NWRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 032050Z - 032245Z STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND DEVELOP FROM NEAR RAP SWD INTO NERN CO. A FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL BE SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY. A WW MAY BE REQUIRED OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH EMBEDDED VORTICITY MAXIMA OVER WY INTO SD / NWRN NEBRASKA WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE THROUGH EVENING. SUBTLE HEIGHT FALLS AS FAR SOUTH AS CO AND NW KS WILL ALSO HELP INCREASE LARGE SCALE ASCENT. LOW LEVEL JET IS RESPONDING TO AFOREMENTIONED UPPER WIND FIELDS...WITH GLD VWP AND GDA PROFILER INDICATING SLY FLOW OF 15-20 KTS IN THE LOWEST 2 KM AGL...WITHIN INSTABILITY AXIS ALONG CO/KS BORDER. THUS...UNSTABLE AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FEED DEVELOPING CLUSTERS OF STORMS FROM SWRN SD INTO NERN CO. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 8.0 AND 9.0 C/KM EXIST...THUS VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS WITH LARGE HAIL WILL BE ILKLEY. INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET COUPLED WITH MODERATE MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR SUPERCELLULAR STORM MODE. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY AS STORMS MERGE INTO LARGER CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS WITH ORGANIZED COLD POOL / OUTFLOW. FORECAST HODOGRAPHS TAKE STORMS ESEWD AT 15-20 KTS THIS EVENING AND MODELS INDICATE POSSIBILITY OF MCS THAT MAY CONTINUE WELL INTO THE NIGHT POINTS SE. ..JEWELL.. 07/03/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS... 38730124 39290307 40200336 41150373 42520298 43780291 44100164 43309945 38790024 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 5 06:45:41 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 05 Jul 2004 01:45:41 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407040646.i646kU114156@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 040645 SWOMCD SPC MCD 040645 KSZ000-MOZ000-040815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1492 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0145 AM CDT SUN JUL 04 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 543...544... VALID 040645Z - 040815Z STRONG CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW SPREADING SWD/SEWD ACROSS SCNTRL AND ERN KS EARLY TODAY AIDED BY MODEST WNWLY MID LEVEL FLOW AND PRESSURE RISES ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS. LIFT ACROSS THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE AN IMPETUS FOR STORM INITIATION WITHIN VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS. BY 09Z...BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM SWRN MO WWD ACROSS SRN KS WITH THE BULK OF CONVECTION CONCENTRATED TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THIS OUTFLOW...ACROSS SERN KS. WITH UPDRAFTS ROOTED BETWEEN 850MB AND 700MB...MARGINAL EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE REALIZED IN THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER RESULTING IN PRIMARILY ELEVATED STORMS. HOWEVER..DESPITE POOR ORGANIZATION...MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY FEEDING THE POST-OUTFLOW STORMS WILL BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS/DOWNDRAFTS...LARGE HAIL...AND STRONG GUSTS. ..CARBIN.. 07/04/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD... 38069531 38210130 39340139 39079757 40009754 39959520 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 5 11:08:33 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 05 Jul 2004 06:08:33 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407041109.i64B9L126715@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 041108 SWOMCD SPC MCD 041108 MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-041315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1493 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0608 AM CDT SUN JUL 04 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KS...NERN OK...SWRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 546... VALID 041108Z - 041315Z SMALL BUT INTENSE MCS ACROSS SERN KS/NERN OK EARLY THIS MORNING. SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE ACCELERATING WITH SEVERAL HIGH WIND GUSTS REPORTED FROM SERN KS AND NERN OK OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. STRONG MESOHIGH AND COLD POOL HAVE EVOLVED WITHIN STRATIFORM RAIN REGION AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN LIFT AND STORM INITIATION ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY GIVEN ABUNDANTLY MOIST AND STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION. LATEST TRACK PLACES THE ARC OF OUTFLOW THROUGH MUCH OF NERN OK AND SWRN MO BY 13Z/8AM CDT. GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IN THE FORM OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST ALONG AND BEHIND THE OUTFLOW. ..CARBIN.. 07/04/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...ICT... 34979508 36739668 38669372 36819227 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 5 11:09:52 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 05 Jul 2004 06:09:52 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407041110.i64BAf127042@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 041109 SWOMCD SPC MCD 041109 MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-041315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1494 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0609 AM CDT SUN JUL 04 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KS...NERN OK...SWRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 546... VALID 041109Z - 041315Z SMALL BUT INTENSE MCS ACROSS SERN KS/NERN OK EARLY THIS MORNING. SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE ACCELERATING WITH SEVERAL HIGH WIND GUSTS REPORTED FROM SERN KS AND NERN OK OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. STRONG MESOHIGH AND COLD POOL HAVE EVOLVED WITHIN STRATIFORM RAIN REGION AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN LIFT AND STORM INITIATION ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY GIVEN ABUNDANTLY MOIST AND STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION. LATEST TRACK PLACES THE ARC OF OUTFLOW THROUGH MUCH OF NERN OK AND SWRN MO BY 13Z/8AM CDT. GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IN THE FORM OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST ALONG AND BEHIND THE OUTFLOW. ..CARBIN.. 07/04/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...ICT... 34979508 36739668 38669372 36819227 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 5 11:11:07 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 05 Jul 2004 06:11:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407041111.i64BBt127179@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 041108 SWOMCD SPC MCD 041108 MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-041315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1493 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0608 AM CDT SUN JUL 04 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KS...NERN OK...SWRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 546... VALID 041108Z - 041315Z SMALL BUT INTENSE MCS ACROSS SERN KS/NERN OK EARLY THIS MORNING. SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE ACCELERATING WITH SEVERAL HIGH WIND GUSTS REPORTED FROM SERN KS AND NERN OK OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. STRONG MESOHIGH AND COLD POOL HAVE EVOLVED WITHIN STRATIFORM RAIN REGION AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN LIFT AND STORM INITIATION ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY GIVEN ABUNDANTLY MOIST AND STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION. LATEST TRACK PLACES THE ARC OF OUTFLOW THROUGH MUCH OF NERN OK AND SWRN MO BY 13Z/8AM CDT. GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IN THE FORM OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST ALONG AND BEHIND THE OUTFLOW. ..CARBIN.. 07/04/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...ICT... 34979508 36739668 38669372 36819227  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 5 11:11:39 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 05 Jul 2004 06:11:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407041112.i64BCS127282@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 041109 SWOMCD SPC MCD 041109 MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-041315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1494 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0609 AM CDT SUN JUL 04 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KS...NERN OK...SWRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 546... VALID 041109Z - 041315Z SMALL BUT INTENSE MCS ACROSS SERN KS/NERN OK EARLY THIS MORNING. SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE ACCELERATING WITH SEVERAL HIGH WIND GUSTS REPORTED FROM SERN KS AND NERN OK OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. STRONG MESOHIGH AND COLD POOL HAVE EVOLVED WITHIN STRATIFORM RAIN REGION AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN LIFT AND STORM INITIATION ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY GIVEN ABUNDANTLY MOIST AND STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION. LATEST TRACK PLACES THE ARC OF OUTFLOW THROUGH MUCH OF NERN OK AND SWRN MO BY 13Z/8AM CDT. GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IN THE FORM OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST ALONG AND BEHIND THE OUTFLOW. ..CARBIN.. 07/04/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...ICT... 34979508 36739668 38669372 36819227  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 5 15:08:35 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 05 Jul 2004 10:08:35 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407041509.i64F9N132224@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 041508 SWOMCD SPC MCD 041508 PAZ000-NYZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-041745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1495 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1008 AM CDT SUN JUL 04 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OH/PARTS OF NRN WV/WRN PA/WRN NY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 041508Z - 041745Z CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND POSSIBILITY OF WW...WHICH COULD BECOME NECESSARY WITHIN NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. SLOW INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ONGOING TO THE WEST OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THIS IS BEING SUPPORTED BY FORCING AHEAD OF MID/UPPER TROUGH AXIS...WHICH IS LIFTING OUT OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...AND PROGGED TO CONTINUE INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF TROUGH AXIS INTO THE APPALACHIANS REGION IS VERY MOIST AND CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE...WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS CLOSE TO 70F...AND NEAR SATURATION THROUGH MUCH OF THE TROPOSPHERE. WHILE WARM PROFILES AND RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD MINIMIZE HAIL POTENTIAL...HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT OF AIR WILL SUPPORT HEAVY RAIN CORES WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS. DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WILL BE ENHANCED A BIT BY 20 TO 30 KT SOUTHERLY MEAN LOWER/MID-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW REGIME SHIFTING AHEAD OF TROUGH AXIS...FROM PARTS OF EASTERN OHIO/NORTHWESTERN WEST VIRGINIA THROUGH WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON. THREAT SHOULD BE GREATEST DURING/SHORTLY AFTER PEAK HEATING HOURS ...WITH ACTIVITY APPROACHING/PROGRESSING THROUGH THE BUFFALO/ PITTSBURGH AREAS BY 20-21Z. WHILE SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL...MOIST/BUOYANT BOUNDARY LAYER MAY ALSO BE SUPPORTIVE OF VERY ISOLATED TORNADOES. ..KERR.. 07/04/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE... 43267782 40827808 39527994 38528246 40538132 41828094 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 5 15:38:17 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 05 Jul 2004 10:38:17 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407041539.i64Fd5108468@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 041538 SWOMCD SPC MCD 041538 TNZ000-ALZ000-KYZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-041745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1496 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1038 AM CDT SUN JUL 04 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AR/WRN TN/NRN MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 547... VALID 041538Z - 041745Z CONTINUE WW...ADDITIONAL WW LIKELY WILL BE NEEDED EASTWARD ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY 17-18Z. DESPITE WESTERLY COMPONENT TO SURFACE FLOW AHEAD OF GUST FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTIVE CLUSTER...RAPID SOUTHEASTWARD PROPAGATION IN EXCESS OF 40 KT IS CONTRIBUTING TO STRONG INFLOW OF VERY MOIST AIR MASS. SURFACE DEW POINTS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI/TENNESSEE VALLEYS ARE IN THE LOWER/MID 70S...AND DAYTIME HEATING/DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER IS ERODING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION FROM NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND WESTERN TENNESSEE EASTWARD ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. 40 TO 50 KT WESTERLY MID-LEVEL JET STREAK IS STILL EVIDENT IN VAD WIND DATA UPSTREAM OF CLUSTER ACROSS THE OZARKS...AND MODELS ARE LIKELY TOO FAST IN WEAKENING THIS FEATURE AS IT DEVELOPS SOUTH OF OHIO VALLEY UPPER TROUGH INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY/NORTHERN GULF STATES THIS AFTERNOON. WITH CONVECTION BECOMING ROOTED IN BOUNDARY LAYER WITH CAPE OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG...POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION EXISTS AS IT SPREADS THROUGH THE DYERSBURG/MEMPHIS AREAS DURING THE 17-18Z TIME FRAME. SQUALL LINE WITH SWATH OF DAMAGING WINDS MAY SPREAD ACROSS THE NASHVILLE TN...TUPELO/COLUMBUS MS...AND FLORENCE/HUNTSVILLE AREAS BY 21-22Z. ..KERR.. 07/04/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...OHX...BMX...HUN...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK... 36499112 36618899 36508653 36038538 34898592 34008745 33618926 33649020 33999117 34669184 35319137 35879114 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 5 16:25:24 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 05 Jul 2004 11:25:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407041626.i64GQI122127@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 041625 SWOMCD SPC MCD 041624 KYZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-041900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1497 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1124 AM CDT SUN JUL 04 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...S CNTRL IL...SRN IND/SW OH...N CNTRL KY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 041624Z - 041900Z CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF INCREASING SEVERE THREAT. WW COULD BECOME NECESSARY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING NORTH OF THE ST. LOUIS AREA...AND APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION/DESTABILIZATION IN EXIT REGION OF CYCLONIC 45 KT 500 MB JET STREAK PROPAGATING THROUGH THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY. THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE EAST SOUTHEASTWARD INTO BASE OF BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ON SOUTHERN FRINGE OF WESTERLIES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS/SOUTHERN INDIANA LIKELY TO BECOME FOCUS FOR EXPANDING CLUSTER OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH DEW POINTS AROUND 70F THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY IS DESTABILIZING WITH DAYTIME HEATING...AND AS LOW-LEVEL INHIBITION WEAKENS...ONGOING ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY ROOTED IN THIS LAYER. SHEAR PROFILES/FLOW FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH JET STREAK ARE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT EVOLUTION OF ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTER...AND UNSATURATED LOW/MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL ENHANCE EVAPORATIVE COOLING NEAR HEAVY PRECIPITATION. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS/INDIANA BY THE 20-21Z TIME FRAME...POSSIBLY APPROACHING THE CINCINNATI/LOUISVILLE AREAS BEFORE 05/00Z. ..KERR.. 07/04/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX... 39028970 39408840 39158718 39658477 38688448 37368653 37218858 38069008 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 5 18:25:48 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 05 Jul 2004 13:25:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407041826.i64IQa125242@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 041826 SWOMCD SPC MCD 041825 ARZ000-OKZ000-042030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1498 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0125 PM CDT SUN JUL 04 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK...NWRN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 041825Z - 042030Z A FEW SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NWRN AR INTO NERN OK. THIS BOUNDARY IS WASHING OUT QUICKLY AS TEMPERATURES HAVE JUMPED 5-10 DEGREES F OVER THE LAST HOUR. CAP STRENGTH IS OF GREATEST CONCERN AND IS CURRENTLY SUPPRESSING DEVELOPMENT ALONG BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...WITH CONTINUED HEATING...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR WITHIN THIS LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ZONE. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AND IF IT BECOMES APPARENT STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF STRONG INSTABILITY...A WW COULD BE REQUIRED. ..JEWELL.. 07/04/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA... 35319316 34799340 34909468 35289588 35669653 36659632 36889567 36479461 36099321 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 5 18:28:37 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 05 Jul 2004 13:28:37 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407041829.i64ITO126194@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 041828 SWOMCD SPC MCD 041828 NEZ000-COZ000-042030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1499 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0128 PM CDT SUN JUL 04 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 041828Z - 042030Z STRONG HEATING WRN NEB AHEAD OF TROUGH MOVING ACROSS MT/WY AND DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW NEB PANHANDLE IS FOCUSING AREA OF SEVERE STORM INITIATION. MUCAPES TO 2500 J/KG AND STEEP LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 8.5C/KM SUPPORT LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL...PARTICULARLY IN ANY SUPERCELL THAT CAN DEVELOP. THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO FORM RAPIDLY AND BECOME SEVERE BY 20-21Z. ..HALES.. 07/04/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS... 41940315 42520321 42910283 42960209 42810062 42229997 41579988 41129995 40740010 40280058 40150121 41080267 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 5 18:32:00 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 05 Jul 2004 13:32:00 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407041832.i64IWp126949@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 041832 SWOMCD SPC MCD 041831 TNZ000-NCZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-042030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1500 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0131 PM CDT SUN JUL 04 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/MIDDLE TN...NRN MS...NRN AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 548... VALID 041831Z - 042030Z CONTINUE REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW. RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS WITH CONVECTIVE CLUSTER MAY PERSIST BEYOND 21Z...AND NEW WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY SOUTHEASTWARD FROM CENTRAL ALABAMA INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED...BUT SURFACE COLD POOL REMAINS QUITE STRONG...AND 40 TO 50 KT WESTERLY LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC JET IS STILL EVIDENT TO THE REAR OF INTENSE SQUALL LINE. SLIGHT BACKING OF LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF LINE FROM A SOUTHWESTERLY TO A MORE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT HAS OCCURRED...AND...GIVEN RAPID EASTWARD MOTION OF COLD POOL...CONVERGENCE ALONG GUST FRONT SHOULD REMAIN STRONG AT LEAST ANOTHER FEW HOURS. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED TO 90F ALONG AN AXIS FROM SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS INTO NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...WHERE INSTABILITY HAS BECOME MAXIMIZED PAST HOUR OR TWO...WITH MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE NOW IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG. THIS MAY SUPPORT A SOUTHWARD SHIFT TO STRONGEST CONVECTION ACROSS THE TUPELO MS/FLORENCE AL AREAS THROUGH 20Z...BEFORE ACTIVITY CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND NORTHERN ALABAMA THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ..KERR.. 07/04/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN... 35188869 36288809 36238730 36308653 36228524 36348318 34348343 33668519 33188813 33369007 33969074 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 5 19:01:11 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 05 Jul 2004 14:01:11 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407041902.i64J24102722@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 041901 SWOMCD SPC MCD 041900 PAZ000-NYZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-042100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1501 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0200 PM CDT SUN JUL 04 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NY...WRN PA...NRN WV CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 549... VALID 041900Z - 042100Z CONTINUE WW. SLOW INCREASE/INTENSIFICATION OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES ACROSS EASTERN OHIO...AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH AXIS LIFTING INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/UPPER OHIO VALLEY. INSTABILITY WILL BECOME MAXIMIZED NEXT FEW HOURS IN PEAK HEATING AHEAD OF LINE IN NARROW CORRIDOR ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA THROUGH WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA INTO WESTERN NEW YORK STATE. THUS...FURTHER INTENSIFICATION APPEARS LIKELY...AND RISK FOR GUSTY...POTENTIALLY DAMAGING...WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH EVOLVING SQUALL LINE. ACTIVITY SHOULD REACH THE PITTSBURGH AREA BY 21Z...AND AREAS SOUTHWEST OF BUFFALO SHORTLY THEREAFTER, ..KERR.. 07/04/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...CLE... 43207794 41877798 40117854 38398005 37738176 38558141 40288083 41858094 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 5 20:04:37 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 05 Jul 2004 15:04:37 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407042005.i64K5O120150@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 042004 SWOMCD SPC MCD 042004 KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-042200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1502 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0304 PM CDT SUN JUL 04 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IL...SRN IND...N CNTRL KY...SW OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 550... VALID 042004Z - 042200Z CONTINUE WW. POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS APPEARS LIKELY TO INCREASE NEXT FEW HOURS. GROWING CLUSTER OF INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING ACROSS SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS...WEST/NORTH OF EVANSVILLE. SOURCE REGION FOR PARCELS COMPRISING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE VERY MOIST/POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI/SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 80S AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER/MID 70S. WHILE BASE OF UPDRAFTS ARE LIKELY STILL ELEVATED ABOVE BOUNDARY LAYER IN ZONE OF STRONGER ISENTROPIC ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL JET STREAK...EVOLUTION OF SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE COLD POOL/ MESO HIGH APPEARS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS NEAR/NORTH OF EVANSVILLE. CONVERGENCE ALONG DEVELOPING OUTFLOW SPREADING TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER SHOULD THEN MAINTAIN VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN ENVIRONMENT WITH MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG. GIVEN PRESENCE OF MODERATE 30 TO 40 KT WESTERLY MID-LEVEL JET... AND RELATIVELY WEAK HIGH-LEVEL FLOW...PROFILES APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF FORWARD PROPAGATING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WITH POTENTIAL FOR SWATH OF DAMAGING WINDS. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER...FROM LOUISVILLE INTO THE CINCINNATI AREA...BY THE 04/23-05/00Z TIME FRAME. ..KERR.. 07/04/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX... 38318890 38818848 38958776 39138714 39378657 39328586 38938497 38378499 37758555 37418603 37348753 37598808 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 5 20:22:15 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 05 Jul 2004 15:22:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407042023.i64KNP125140@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 042022 SWOMCD SPC MCD 042021 OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-042145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1503 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0321 PM CDT SUN JUL 04 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX PANHANDLE...NWRN OK...SWRN AND CENTRAL KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 042021Z - 042145Z A WW WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY. MAIN SEVERE THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. CONVERGENCE ALONG DRYLINE ALONG WITH SURFACE HEATING NOW BREAKING CAP OVER TX PANHANDLE WITH TCU ON VISIBLE IMAGERY WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT LIKELY AS UPPER VORT MAX APPROACHES. CONVERGENT AXIS EXTENDS NWD INTO SWRN KS WHERE STRONG INSTABILITY EXISTS WITH MLCAPE 2000-3000 K/KG. AREA PROFILERS SHOW ENOUGH SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS WITH 20-30 KTS OF WLY FLOW ABOVE 2 KM AGL. LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS WEAK AND THEREFORE TORNADO THREAT APPEARS QUITE ISOLATED. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS...DOMINANT CONVECTIVE MODE WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO EWD MOVING MCS. ..JEWELL.. 07/04/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA... 38770025 38809852 36779855 35339975 34770082 35140150 36090125 37000097 38210061 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 5 20:56:13 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 05 Jul 2004 15:56:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407042057.i64Kv0103557@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 042056 SWOMCD SPC MCD 042055 PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-VAZ000-042200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1504 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0355 PM CDT SUN JUL 04 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL PA/ERN WV PNHDL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 549... VALID 042055Z - 042200Z CONTINUE REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW. NEW WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. BROKEN CONVECTIVE LINE IS STILL EVOLVING AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH AXIS LIFTING INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION. ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY PROGRESSING THROUGH INSTABILITY AXIS WHERE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER HEATED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...FROM THE MOUNTAINS OF WEST VIRGINIA THROUGH WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW YORK. EAST OF THE CREST OF THE APPALACHIANS...ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...CLOUD COVER HAS INHIBITED DESTABILIZATION...AND POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION BEYOND NEXT HOUR OR SO APPEARS MINIMAL. GIVEN MARGINAL NATURE OF CURRENT SEVERE THREAT...NEW WW MAY NOT BE NEEDED. ..KERR.. 07/04/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX... 40507949 41447926 41917906 41917718 41467747 40817801 39597782 38617897 38317983 38748011 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 5 22:24:36 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 05 Jul 2004 17:24:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407042225.i64MPN130544@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 042224 SWOMCD SPC MCD 042224 NEZ000-SDZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-050000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1505 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0524 PM CDT SUN JUL 04 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NEB...ERN CO...WRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 551... VALID 042224Z - 050000Z 22Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LATEST PRESSURE FALLS CENTERED OVER SWRN NEBRASKA...ON NOSE OF INSTABILITY AXIS WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S F. STORMS OVER WRN NEB AND NERN CO WILL MOVE SEWD INTO SWRN NEB AND NWRN KS WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS LIKELY. FARTHER SOUTH...SWRN PORTIONS OF WW HAVE DRIED OUT SUBSTANTIALLY AND WILL LIKELY BE CLEARED WITHIN NEXT HOUR. STORMS OVER EXTREME SERN CO WILL CONTINUE EWD INTO SWRN KS...WHERE DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED IN THE LAST HOUR...SUGGESTING STRONG OUTFLOW WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT. E OF A GCK TO LBL LINE...STORMS ALONG DRY LINE WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND DEVELOP OVER WRN WW 552. ..JEWELL.. 07/04/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...UNR...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...CYS...ABQ... 36970084 36960450 43000296 42989923 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 5 22:54:43 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 05 Jul 2004 17:54:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407042255.i64MtU106594@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 042254 SWOMCD SPC MCD 042254 TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-050000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1506 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0554 PM CDT SUN JUL 04 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TN...NRN AL...NWRN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 553... VALID 042254Z - 050000Z ...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE ACROSS TN INTO THE NRN GULF COAST STATES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WW IS NOT EXPECTED DOWNSTREAM... LEADING EDGE OF LONG-LIVED MCS CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE ESEWD ACROSS MIDDLE TN INTO NRN AL. IN THE ABSENCE OF LARGE SCALE FORCING...THIS ORGANIZED MCS SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN IN INTENSITY AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS. IN THE SHORT TERM...ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN LARGER CLUSTER MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS BUT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE DECREASING. WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED DOWNSTREAM AS THIS ACTIVITY SPREADS EAST OF CURRENT WATCH. ..DARROW.. 07/04/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN... 33778681 34918598 35558574 36218524 36138437 35168453 34098518 33208638 33008770 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 5 23:15:49 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 05 Jul 2004 18:15:49 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407042316.i64NGg111382@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 042224 SWOMCD SPC MCD 042224 NEZ000-SDZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-050000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1505 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0524 PM CDT SUN JUL 04 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NEB...ERN CO...WRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 551... VALID 042224Z - 050000Z 22Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LATEST PRESSURE FALLS CENTERED OVER SWRN NEBRASKA...ON NOSE OF INSTABILITY AXIS WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S F. STORMS OVER WRN NEB AND NERN CO WILL MOVE SEWD INTO SWRN NEB AND NWRN KS WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS LIKELY. FARTHER SOUTH...SWRN PORTIONS OF WW HAVE DRIED OUT SUBSTANTIALLY AND WILL LIKELY BE CLEARED WITHIN NEXT HOUR. STORMS OVER EXTREME SERN CO WILL CONTINUE EWD INTO SWRN KS...WHERE DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED IN THE LAST HOUR...SUGGESTING STRONG OUTFLOW WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT. E OF A GCK TO LBL LINE...STORMS ALONG DRY LINE WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND DEVELOP OVER WRN WW 552. ..JEWELL.. 07/04/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...UNR...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...CYS...ABQ... 36970084 36960450 43000296 42989923  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 5 23:26:03 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 05 Jul 2004 18:26:03 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407042326.i64NQo113697@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 042254 SWOMCD SPC MCD 042254 TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-050000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1506 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0554 PM CDT SUN JUL 04 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TN...NRN AL...NWRN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 553... VALID 042254Z - 050000Z ...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE ACROSS TN INTO THE NRN GULF COAST STATES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WW IS NOT EXPECTED DOWNSTREAM... LEADING EDGE OF LONG-LIVED MCS CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE ESEWD ACROSS MIDDLE TN INTO NRN AL. IN THE ABSENCE OF LARGE SCALE FORCING...THIS ORGANIZED MCS SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN IN INTENSITY AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS. IN THE SHORT TERM...ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN LARGER CLUSTER MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS BUT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE DECREASING. WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED DOWNSTREAM AS THIS ACTIVITY SPREADS EAST OF CURRENT WATCH. ..DARROW.. 07/04/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN... 33778681 34918598 35558574 36218524 36138437 35168453 34098518 33208638 33008770  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 5 23:29:59 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 05 Jul 2004 18:29:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407042330.i64NUl114701@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 042330 SWOMCD SPC MCD 042329 PAZ000-NYZ000-050030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1507 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0629 PM CDT SUN JUL 04 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NY...NRN PA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 552... VALID 042329Z - 050030Z ...LOCALLY STRONG WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS AS THEY PROGRESS EWD ACROSS THE WATCH... STRONG WARM ADVECTION IS SPREADING ACROSS WRN NY INTO SERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC AS LLJ LIFTS/DEVELOPS NWD INTO SRN CANADA. AN ELONGATED ZONE OF CONVECTION...ROUGHLY 50MI WIDE...WITH EMBEDDED STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS IS GRADUALLY SPREADING EWD TOWARD A PROGRESSIVELY MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. THIS ACTIVITY MAY STRUGGLE TO GENERATE MORE THAN LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING FURTHER DIMINISHES INSTABILITY. ..DARROW.. 07/04/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP... 40867824 42377825 43637833 43887728 42837694 40907726 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 6 00:03:24 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 05 Jul 2004 19:03:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407050004.i6504B122798@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 050003 SWOMCD SPC MCD 050002 NEZ000-KSZ000-SDZ000-050100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1508 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0702 PM CDT SUN JUL 04 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN SD...NEB...NCNTRL KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 551... VALID 050002Z - 050100Z ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... MULTIPLE MCS/S ARE MATURING ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS FROM SWRN SD...SWD INTO NWRN KS. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE ITS FORWARD PROPAGATION AS IT SURGES EWD INTO MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH SUSTAINED...BUT GRADUALLY INCREASING WARM ADVECTION PROFILES. IN ADDITION...FRONTAL ZONE IS WELL ESTABLISHED FROM ERN NEB...NWWD INTO SWRN SD AHEAD OF INCREASING THUNDERSTORMS. THIS MAY SERVE TO FOCUS NRN PORTIONS OF SQUALL LINE. WW WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY. ..DARROW.. 07/05/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...UNR...GLD... 43320067 42499802 39979855 39430014 40490094 42100034 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 6 00:12:37 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 05 Jul 2004 19:12:37 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407050013.i650Dc124732@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 050012 SWOMCD SPC MCD 050012 KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-050215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1509 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0712 PM CDT SUN JUL 04 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND SW KS...WRN OK...TX PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 554... VALID 050012Z - 050215Z THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL CONTINUES ACROSS WW. MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO COOL WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NM. AREA VWPS AND PROFILERS INDICATE BACKING 500 MB WINDS NOW INTO WRN TX PANHANDLE...WITH SPEEDS OF 40 KTS NEAR TUCUMCARI. WIND PROFILES FROM ERN NM...ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE INTO NWRN OK AND SWRN KS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLULAR STORM STRUCTURE. STORM MODE IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO MORE OF AN MCS WITH SIGNIFICANT WIND POTENTIAL LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AS CONVECTION OVER ERN CO / WRN KS MERGES WITH SW KS CONVECTION. ..JEWELL.. 07/05/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA... 34839935 34830162 39090016 39139773 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 6 03:45:31 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 05 Jul 2004 22:45:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407050346.i653kS112652@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 050345 SWOMCD SPC MCD 050345 NEZ000-KSZ000-SDZ000-050445- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1511 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1045 PM CDT SUN JUL 04 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NEB...NRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 555... VALID 050345Z - 050445Z ...DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF APPROACHING SQUALL LINES... MULTIPLE MCS'S HAVE EMERGED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND APPEAR TO BE SURGING WITH A GREATER WIND POTENTIAL AS THEY ENCROACH FROM BOTH THE SOUTH AND WEST. IT APPEARS THE GREATEST WIND POTENTIAL IN THE NEAR TERM SHOULD BE NEAR THE APEX OF TWO OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES APPROACHING NCNTRL KS FROM PHILLIPS COUNTY TO JEWELL COUNTY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD INTO SCNTRL NEB SHORTLY ALONG WITH ATTENDANT WIND THREAT. ..DARROW.. 07/05/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF... 39599939 40969953 41889853 42839827 42549696 40599792 39189712 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 6 04:20:41 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 05 Jul 2004 23:20:41 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407050421.i654LW120798@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 050420 SWOMCD SPC MCD 050420 KSZ000-OKZ000-050515- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1512 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1120 PM CDT SUN JUL 04 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...KS...NRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 556... VALID 050420Z - 050515Z ...STRONG WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF SQUALL LINE OVER SERN KS... LEADING SQUALL LINE IS PROGRESSING EWD ACROSS WW AT ROUGHLY 35KT WITH ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW RACING UP TO 5-10 MI AHEAD OF PRECIPITATION. A SLOW UPWARD TREND IN WAKE PRECIPITATION MAY ALLOW FOR AN ENHANCED COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT...AND POSSIBLE INCREASED FORWARD PROPAGATION SPEED. A SECONDARY BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED OVER SWRN PORTIONS OF KS AND NWRN OK. THIS ACTIVITY HAS STRUGGLED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS BUT MAY BE INDICATIVE OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH. ..DARROW.. 07/05/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...AMA... 36840113 38149985 39259880 38979627 37849551 36579694 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 6 06:17:02 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 06 Jul 2004 01:17:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407050617.i656Hu120271@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 050617 SWOMCD SPC MCD 050616 IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-050745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1513 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0116 AM CDT MON JUL 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB....WRN IA...NERN KS...NWRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 555...557... VALID 050616Z - 050745Z IT APPEARS SEVERE TSTM WATCHES 555 AND 557 WILL NEED TO BE REPLACED WITH A NEW SEVERE TSTM WATCH COVERING SECTIONS OF ERN NEB/WRN IA...NERN KS AND NWRN MO. LARGE ARC OF OUTFLOW IN ADVANCE OF DEEP CONVECTIVELY INDUCED COLD POOL AND STRATIFORM RAIN AREA CONTINUES DEVELOPING NEWD TOWARD THE MO RIVER VALLEY AREA THIS MORNING. LATEST TRACK TAKES DEEP CONVECTION NEWD AT 35-40KT ACROSS ERN NEB AND INTO WRN IA THROUGH 09Z. AN AXIS OF STRONG INSTABILITY REMAINS FOCUSED ALONG SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY BISECTING IA...AS WELL AS AHEAD OF NRN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NOW MOVING INTO NERN NEB. GIVEN FAST NEWD COLD POOL MOTION AND FCST OF STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL FLOW AS UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES EWD FROM THE HIGH PLAINS...CONVECTION SHOULD OCCASIONALLY REACH SEVERE LEVELS WITH HIGH WIND AND HAIL HAZARD SPREADING NEWD INTO EARLY MORNING. ..CARBIN.. 07/05/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF... 39089563 40389749 40849825 41399886 42799688 42989494 41909327 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 6 07:07:36 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 06 Jul 2004 02:07:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407050708.i6578n101641@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 050707 SWOMCD SPC MCD 050706 KSZ000-OKZ000-050900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1514 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0206 AM CDT MON JUL 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KS...NR OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 556... VALID 050706Z - 050900Z RADAR IMAGERY LOOPS FROM ICT DEPICT COMPLEX ARRAY OF INTERSECTING BOUNDARIES AND MESOSCALE CIRCULATIONS. AS ONE MESOLOW WAS LIFTING NEWD TOWARD NERN KS TRAILING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THIS CIRCULATION HAS CAUGHT UP TO AND MERGED WITH AN OUTFLOW FROM LEADING CONVECTIVE LINE NOW MOVING INTO ERN KS. THESE MERGED BOUNDARIES APPEAR TO BE PROVIDING A MESOSCALE FOCUS FOR RENEWED CONVECTIVE INTENSIFICATION FROM SEDGWICK COUNTY SWD INTO HARPER COUNTY KS AT THIS TIME...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT MOVING EAST FROM ALFALFA INTO GRANT COUNTY OK. AIRMASS TO THE EAST OF THE NEW STORM COMPLEX WAS VERY UNSTABLE AND...COUPLED WITH FAVORABLE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SRN PLAINS UPPER TROUGH AND MODEST LOW LEVEL JET...EXPECT DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL THREAT TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF SEVERE TSTM WATCH 556 THROUGH 09Z. IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT ANOTHER WATCH WILL BE NEEDED TO THE EAST OF WATCH 556 IN WITHIN 1-2 HOURS. ..CARBIN.. 07/05/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA... 36219517 36680048 37669886 38319701 38849675 38669504 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 6 07:23:27 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 06 Jul 2004 02:23:27 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407050724.i657OJ105619@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 050723 SWOMCD SPC MCD 050722 OKZ000-TXZ000-050915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1515 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0222 AM CDT MON JUL 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX PNHDL...WRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 050722Z - 050915Z SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TX PNHDL AND WRN OK EARLY TODAY. WATCH MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THESE AREAS SHORTLY. WV IMAGERY DEPICTS WELL-DEFINED SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING EAST ACROSS NERN NM. MEANWHILE A SERIES OF SWD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES HAVE MOVED OVER THE NRN TX PNHDL AND MERGED WITH SW-NE ORIENTED SURFACE TROUGH. LARGE SCALE ASCENT FROM THE SHORT WAVE...COUPLED WITH MESOSCALE ASCENT ALONG THE TROUGH/OUTFLOWS... SHOULD OVERCOME RELATIVELY HIGH CONVECTIVE INHIBITION TO SUSTAIN VIGOROUS TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AND ACTIVITY SHOULD TAP INTO GREATER INSTABILITY AS IT DEVELOPS EWD TOWARD WRN OK. THUS...LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WIND POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING. ..CARBIN.. 07/05/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA... 34489872 33989974 33860185 35740166 36589934 35739830 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 6 09:45:27 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 06 Jul 2004 04:45:27 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407050946.i659kC115002@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 050945 SWOMCD SPC MCD 050945 MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-051145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1516 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0445 AM CDT MON JUL 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS...SWRN IA...NRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 558... VALID 050945Z - 051145Z BROKEN ARC OF DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO LIFT NEWD INTO SWRN IA...AND MOVE EWD ACROSS NRN MO EARLY TODAY. SMALL CLUSTER OF INTENSE STORMS NW OF COU APPEARS TO BE ALONG INSTABILITY GRADIENT AND ON THE NOSE OF 25-35KT LLJ. ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH...ABUNDANT INSTABILITY AND FASTER WLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ADVANCING SEVERE SQUALL LINE MOVING EAST FROM ERN KS AT OVER 40KT. WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL SHOULD INCREASE FROM LINN COUNTY IN ERN KS EAST ACROSS BATES AND HENRY COUNTIES OF WRN MO OVER THE 1-2 HOURS. FARTHER NORTH...INSTABILITY REMAINS LIMITED AND FOCUSED ALONG QUASISTATIONARY FRONT DRAPED ACROSS SRN IA. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS BEEN MERGING WITH THIS FRONT ACROSS ERN NEB AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS THIS PROCESS DEVELOPS EWD INTO SWRN IA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH E/NEWD MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER KS MAY OVERCOME LACK OF GREATER INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT A COUPLE OF HAIL OR WIND EVENTS OVER THE REMAINING VALID TIME OF THE WATCH. ..CARBIN.. 07/05/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP... 37889416 38849539 39399441 40829553 41509679 43069489 40099156 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 6 11:02:56 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 06 Jul 2004 06:02:56 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407051103.i65B3q105278@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 051103 SWOMCD SPC MCD 051102 MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-051230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1517 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0602 AM CDT MON JUL 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN OK...SERN KS...SWRN MO...NWRN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 559... VALID 051102Z - 051230Z NUMEROUS STRONG AND A FEW SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE WITHIN WW 559 EARLY THIS MORNING. MOST INTENSE ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL SCALE BOW ECHO MOVING ENEWD AT 45-50KT ACROSS HENRY AND ST. CLAIR COUNTIES OF WCNTRL MO. THE APEX OF THIS BOW APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING ALONG A TRAILING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SAGGING SWD FROM ERN BENTON TO MORGAN COUNTIES. STORM SCALE INFLOW AND ASCENT INVOF THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD MAINTAIN THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH THE BOW ECHO AS IT DEVELOPS EAST ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF WW 559 OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. IF THIS ACTIVITY CAN MAINTAIN INTENSITY...AREAS OF ECNTRL MO MAY NEED TO BE COVERED IN A NEW SEVERE TSTM WATCH. FARTHER SW...WIDELY SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ATOP COLD POOL IN THE WAKE OF THE BOW COMPLEX...FROM SERN KS INTO NERN OK. A FEW OF THE STRONGER CORES COULD STILL PRODUCE SOME HAIL. ..CARBIN.. 07/05/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...ICT...OUN... 38579428 38739284 38329171 36569112 36189358 36079612 36169735 38049489 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 6 14:12:12 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 06 Jul 2004 09:12:12 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407051412.i65ECv131247@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 051412 SWOMCD SPC MCD 051412 INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-051515- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1518 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0912 AM CDT MON JUL 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MO INTO CENTRAL/SRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 560... VALID 051412Z - 051515Z DAMAGING BOW ECHO WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT EAST CENTRAL MO... INCLUDING ST LOUIS METRO AREA...THROUGH 15Z AS IT MOVES INTO SWRN IL. SECOND STRONG BOW ECHO EXPECTED TO MOVE SEWD TOWARD SRN IL THROUGH 16Z. NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED BY 16Z FOR PORTIONS OF SRN IL INTO SWRN IND. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW DAMAGING BOW ECHO...CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM LINCOLN TO FRANKLIN COUNTIES MO...MOVING ENEWD AT 40-45 KT. STL VAD DATA SHOWED WINDS BELOW 1 KM IN THE WAKE OF THE LEADING BOW...RESPONDING TO UPSTREAM/APPROACHING STRONGER BOW...WITH WINDS HAVING BECOME ESELY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THIS STRONGER BOW TO SUSTAIN SIMILAR INTENSITY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE STL AREA INTO SWRN IL. THE LEADING BOW MOVING INTO ST CLAIR COUNTY IL WAS MOVING TO THE SE AT 30-35 KT. AIR MASS DOWNSTREAM ACROSS SRN IL HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE...GIVEN THE ONSET OF SURFACE HEATING THIS MORNING WITHIN MOIST ENVIRONMENT. ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION EXPECTED ACROSS SRN IL PER 12Z ETA SHOULD SUPPORT A CONTINUED SEWD MOVEMENT OF LEAD BOW AND ENEWD MOVEMENT OF DAMAGING BOW INTO SRN IL. ..PETERS.. 07/05/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX... 38959144 39579119 39748927 39508739 38418707 37988753 37288873 37969008 38039139 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 6 17:09:08 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 06 Jul 2004 12:09:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407051709.i65H9q123518@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 051709 SWOMCD SPC MCD 051708 KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-051815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1519 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1208 PM CDT MON JUL 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN IL/SWRN IND/NWRN KY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 561... VALID 051708Z - 051815Z DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS ACROSS FAR SERN IL INTO SWRN IND/NWRN KY. NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT HOUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN KY...AS THE BOW IS EXPECTED TO EXIT WW 561 BY 1830Z...WITH NEW STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS FAR WRN KY IN A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW A LARGE BOWING STRUCTURE EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL INTO SRN IL AT 1645Z...WITH THE STRONGEST PORTION AND SEVERE POTENTIAL ALONG THE SRN EXTENT. THIS SRN PORTION HAS TENDED TO MAINTAIN ITS ESEWD MOVEMENT OF 35 KT...SUPPORTING DAMAGING WINDS. AT THIS SPEED...AND WITH ADDITIONAL AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION EXPECTED DOWNSTREAM ACROSS SRN IND/WRN KY WHERE MLCAPE IS ALREADY RANGING FROM 2000-3000 J/KG...THIS MCS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ITS FORWARD PROPAGATION. ALTHOUGH STORMS HAVE INCREASED IN INTENSITY FARTHER N ACROSS CENTRAL IL ALONG NRN PORTION OF LARGE BOW...SLOWER EWD MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. HOWEVER...STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED HAIL. ..PETERS.. 07/05/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX... 36878889 37938802 38938812 38978569 37628562 36738600 36708857 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 6 17:40:38 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 06 Jul 2004 12:40:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407051741.i65HfS101635@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 051740 SWOMCD SPC MCD 051740 NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-SDZ000-WYZ000-051945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1520 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1240 PM CDT MON JUL 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NEB...NERN CO...NWRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 051740Z - 051945Z THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS DEVELOPING FROM SWRN SD INTO SERN WY...AS WELL AS N CENTRAL CO...AHEAD OF STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVE. STRONG HEATING AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT ALONG A CDR - CYS LINE ALONG WITH RAPID COOLING ALOFT WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES AND INCREASE INSTABILITY. MBW PROFILER IN SERN WY INDICATES STRONG WLY FLOW OF 30-55 KTS ABOVE 2 KM AGL. THIS WIND ENERGY WILL HELP PRODUCE FAST SELY STORM MOTIONS OF 25-35 MPH. FAST MOTIONS COMBINED WITH LOWERING SURFACE RH LEVELS SUGGEST DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. HAIL WILL BE LIKELY AS WELL WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS...BUT WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY LARGE DUE TO MARGINAL INSTABILITY. ..JEWELL.. 07/05/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS... 39360510 40430497 40990412 41510375 42230316 43050256 42289999 40239994 39310103 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 6 20:00:30 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 06 Jul 2004 15:00:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407052001.i65K1O116622@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 052000 SWOMCD SPC MCD 052000 ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-052100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1521 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0300 PM CDT MON JUL 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN IA/NERN MO INTO WEST CENTRAL IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 052000Z - 052100Z PORTIONS OF SERN IA/NERN MO INTO WEST CENTRAL IL ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A WW. 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A LOW OVER SWRN IA...JUST W OF DSM... WITH A BOUNDARY EXTENDING EWD INTO CENTRAL IL TO THE N OF PIA. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW. AIR MASS ACROSS THE AREA OF CONCERN HAS BEEN SLOW TO DESTABILIZE /MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG/... DESPITE SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THIS APPEARS TO BE THE RESULT OF WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING AT MID-LEVELS WITH A POCKET OF WARM 500 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -8 C/KM. HOWEVER...AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON AS COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND STRONGER UVVS WITH A WELL-DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROUGH...EXTENDING FROM WRN IA TO ERN KS...SPREAD EWD OVER SRN IA/NRN MO TO WRN IL. INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR COMBINED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...WHILE BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SHOULD ALLOW FOR A TORNADO THREAT. ..PETERS.. 07/05/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX... 40509391 41839409 41889210 41619021 39869042 39689278 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 6 20:08:44 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 06 Jul 2004 15:08:44 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407052009.i65K9S119433@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 052008 SWOMCD SPC MCD 052008 DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-DCZ000-052215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1522 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0308 PM CDT MON JUL 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN VA...ERN MD / DE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 052008Z - 052215Z A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING AND MOVING SEWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT. A WW IS BEING CONSIDERED. VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE HAS DEVELOPED WITH MLCAPE VALUES 2000-2500 J/KG. SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS PERSIST E OF APPALACHIANS FROM SERN PA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL VA. A CONTINUATION OF HEATING WILL ALLOW ADDITIONAL STORMS TO FORM WITHIN THESE AREAS. POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES INDICATE HAIL THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL. AREA VWPS INDICATE 20-40 KTS OF WLY FLOW ABOVE 2 KM...WHICH IS CAUSING SELY STORM MOTIONS AROUND 20 KT. STORMS MAY GAIN STRENGTH AS THEY FORWARD PROPAGATE INTO STRONG INSTABILITY...WITH DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. ..JEWELL.. 07/05/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RNK... 39487704 39667582 38627476 36537589 36667797 37257904 38467864 39257764 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 6 20:43:56 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 06 Jul 2004 15:43:56 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407052044.i65Kie131055@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 052044 SWOMCD SPC MCD 052043 ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-052215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1523 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0343 PM CDT MON JUL 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KS / NERN OK / CENTRAL MO / WRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 052043Z - 052215Z A WW WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY FOR MO AND IL. EXTREME INSTABILITY PER SGF 18Z MODIFIED SOUNDING WITH LI TO -14. AREA VWPS INDICATE FAVORABLE SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS MARGINAL BUT GIVEN EXTREME INSTABILITY A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. VERY LARGE HAIL LIKELY WITH STRONGEST STORMS ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS. AREAS TO FARTHER SW...INTO SERN KS AND NERN OK...HAVE A STRONGER CAP...BUT TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED IN THESE AREAS. ..JEWELL.. 07/05/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT... 38559455 39489104 38988934 37758934 37309132 36159541 37209612 37879618 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 6 21:21:36 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 06 Jul 2004 16:21:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407052122.i65LMJ110965@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 052121 SWOMCD SPC MCD 052121 ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-052315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1525 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0421 PM CDT MON JUL 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN OK...SRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 052121Z - 052315Z SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR LIKELY AND A WW WILL BE REQUIRED. EXTREME INSTABILITY IN PLACE OVER SRN KS / NRN OK. CIN IS ALMOST GONE OVER CENTRAL OK AS TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE 90S. SOME CIN REMAINS OVER SRN KS WHERE IT IS COOLER...BUT SLY LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION MAY ERASE CAP BY LATER AFTERNOON / EARLY EVENING. MODIFIED 18Z LMN SOUNDING INDICATES ABOUT 4000 J/KG MLCAPE WITH LI ON THE ORDER OF - 12. AREA VWPS AND PROFILERS INDICATE SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS WITH 30-40 KT MID LEVEL FLOW...WHICH IS BACKING IN ADVANCE OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH. VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES SEVERAL AREAS OF POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT FROM N CENTRAL OK INTO SRN KS...WITHIN BROAD LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ZONE. ETA AND RUC MODELS BOTH INDICATE DEVELOPMENT WILL TAKE PLACE OVER NRN OK BUT DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE ANYWHERE WITHIN DISCUSSION AREA. ..JEWELL.. 07/05/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC... 35979459 35829812 36219999 38039999 38049465 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 6 21:37:12 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 06 Jul 2004 16:37:12 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407052137.i65Lbt116514@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 052137 SWOMCD SPC MCD 052136 OKZ000-TXZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-052230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1526 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0436 PM CDT MON JUL 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO...SWRN KS...WRN OK...TX PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 052136Z - 052230Z ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SOON... VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND STRONG SUNSHINE HAVE REDUCED INHIBITION ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. EXTREME INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED AND WITH TIME AN INCREASING LLJ SHOULD ENHANCE CONVERGENCE AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN INCREASING/DEEPENING CU FIELD FROM THE ERN OK PANHANDLE...SWD INTO THE ERN TX PANHANDLE. RAPID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT EARLY IN THE CONVECTIVE CYCLE. WITH TIME AN MCS MAY EVOLVE AND SPREAD EAST TOWARD WRN OK. IN ADDITION...CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CO. THIS ACTIVITY MAY SPREAD SEWD TOWARD SWRN KS/WRN OK PANHANDLE LATE THIS EVENING. ..DARROW.. 07/05/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ... 33610137 35610242 36430328 38480276 37879963 34589874 33599961 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 6 22:52:18 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 06 Jul 2004 17:52:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407052253.i65Mr1106442@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 052252 SWOMCD SPC MCD 052252 NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-060015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1527 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0552 PM CDT MON JUL 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NEB...NWRN KS...ERN CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 563... VALID 052252Z - 060015Z UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO FORCE CLUSTER OF STORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW-END SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY A DAMAGING WIND THREAT LATER THIS EVENING. SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES LARGE AREA OF PRESSURE RISES BEHIND OUTFLOW ENHANCED COLD FRONT...WITH LARGE VALUES OF DCAPE OVER 1300 J/KG. GIVEN STRONG FORCING...STORMS WILL LIKELY ORGANIZE INTO A SEVERE MCS WHICH WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT WINDS. ..JEWELL.. 07/05/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS... 39830387 42050251 41849983 40819922 39309964 38660167 38880333 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 6 23:31:16 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 06 Jul 2004 18:31:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407052331.i65NVx118109@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 052331 SWOMCD SPC MCD 052330 ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-MNZ000-060030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1528 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0630 PM CDT MON JUL 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...IA...WRN IL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 566... VALID 052330Z - 060030Z ...ISOLATED TORNADOES REMAIN POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG E-W SFC BOUNDARY... CENTER OF UPPER VORT/LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT ENEWD ACROSS CENTRAL IA WITH THE DEEPEST CONVECTION OBSERVED IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF CIRCULATION. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...LOW LEVEL SHEAR ALONG STATIONARY BOUNDARY MAY AID STORM ROTATION/LOCAL TORNADIC THREAT AS THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS DEVELOP EWD INTO EXTREME SWRN WI AND NWRN IL. ..DARROW.. 07/05/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...EAX... 40509254 41649289 42089404 42889442 43669299 42889079 41478918 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 7 00:05:51 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 06 Jul 2004 19:05:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407060006.i6606Y126936@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 060005 SWOMCD SPC MCD 060005 ILZ000-MOZ000-060100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1529 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0705 PM CDT MON JUL 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...MO...WRN IL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 565... VALID 060005Z - 060100Z SRN INFLUENCE FROM UPPER TROUGH AXIS APPEARS PARTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR ONGOING ACTIVITY SPREADING NEWD ALONG THE I-44 CORRIDOR BETWEEN SGF AND STL. MORE OBVIOUS LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE ZONE IS LOCATED FARTHER NW EXTENDING FROM CLARK COUNTY IN NERN MO...SWWD TO JUST SOUTH OF MKC. IF THIS NRN BOUNDARY DOES NOT CONVECT SOON ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN ISOLATED AS IT SPREADS INTO WCNTRL IL. ..DARROW.. 07/06/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...SGF... 37659333 38539242 39409050 39288908 38548964 37369235 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 7 00:11:10 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 06 Jul 2004 19:11:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407060011.i660Br128461@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 060010 SWOMCD SPC MCD 060010 KSZ000-NEZ000-060115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1530 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0710 PM CDT MON JUL 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND ERN NEB...N CENTRAL KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 060010Z - 060115Z SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE. A NEW WW WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY. INSTABILITY IS INCREASING INTO NEB AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AND TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL WITH SHORTWAVE. AREA PROFILERS INDICATE WIND PROFILES ARE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WITH UP TO 55 KT MID LEVEL FLOW. SUPERCELLS MOST LIKELY CENTRAL AND ERN NEB BEFORE OUTFLOWS MERGE AND STORMS FORM INTO SEVERE MCS. ..JEWELL.. 07/06/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD... 38829783 38980009 42330124 42189696 38779588 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 7 00:41:15 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 06 Jul 2004 19:41:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407060041.i660fw103857@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 060040 SWOMCD SPC MCD 060040 NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-060145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1531 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0740 PM CDT MON JUL 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN VA...WRN NC...WRN SC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 568... VALID 060040Z - 060145Z ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE CANCELED EARLY... LONG-LIVED MCS THAT TRACKED ACROSS THE TN VALLEY HAS ALL BUT LOST ITS INTENSITY AS IT MOVED INTO WRN NC. WIDESPREAD LIGHT-MODERATE RAIN IN THE WAKE OF THE WIND SHIFT HAS GENERATED A COLD POOL WHICH WILL MODIFY AS IT SPREADS EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. IF LEADING ACTIVITY DOES NOT BEGIN TO INCREASE SHORTLY WW MAY BE CANCELED EARLY. ..DARROW.. 07/06/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RNK...GSP...MRX... 34908355 36168250 36938173 36278079 34658176 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 7 00:54:22 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 06 Jul 2004 19:54:22 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407060055.i660tB107611@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 060054 SWOMCD SPC MCD 060054 MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-060230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1532 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0754 PM CDT MON JUL 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN OK...SRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 567... VALID 060054Z - 060230Z SEVERE STORM CLUSTER OVER NRN OK WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO REGENERATE NEW UPDRAFTS ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES DUE TO VERY STRONG INSTABILITY IN PLACE...DESPITE ABSENCE OF LARGE SCALE FORCING. ADDITIONAL WW APPEARS LIKELY FOR PARTS OF THE AREA AFTER WW 567 EXPIRES...AS SEVERE WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT. ..JEWELL.. 07/06/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC... 35989648 36249872 38399881 38029461 35829462 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 7 01:50:59 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 06 Jul 2004 20:50:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407060151.i661pg122539@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 060151 SWOMCD SPC MCD 060150 NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-060245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1533 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0850 PM CDT MON JUL 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NEB...WRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 569...570... VALID 060150Z - 060245Z ...SEVERE WIND THREAT APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS... INTENSIFYING SQUALL LINE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL NEB...SWWD INTO NWRN KS EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPAND AND SURGE SEWD AS IT PROPAGATES INTO INTENSIFYING LLJ FROM WRN OK INTO CENTRAL KS. 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM THE PLAINS AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY INDICATE VERY STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ON THE ORDER OF 8-9C/KM...AND SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR TO SUPPORT LONG-LIVED MCS AS CONVECTION SPREADS SEWD. ..DARROW.. 07/06/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...PUB... 38020278 38930107 41369820 41649741 40849714 38599863 37590141 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 7 02:29:51 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 06 Jul 2004 21:29:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407060230.i662UX102566@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 060229 SWOMCD SPC MCD 060229 ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-060330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1534 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0929 PM CDT MON JUL 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IL/SRN WI CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 566... VALID 060229Z - 060330Z SQUALL LINE NOW MOVING INTO NWRN IL MAY REMAIN SEVERE FOR A SHORT TIME AFTER THE WATCH EXPIRES...BUT A NEW WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. 00Z SOUNDING FROM ILX SUGGESTS AIRMASS ACROSS SRN WI AND NRN IL IS NOT AS UNSTABLE...WITH TEMPS ONLY IN THE 60S...AND AIRMASS IS DRIER FARTHER EAST INFLUENCED BY A LAKE BREEZE THAT HAS BEEN ADVECTED INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. HOWEVER...FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL CERTAINLY SUPPORT A THREAT FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITHIN THE LINE. THE NRN END OF THE LINE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN...WHILE THE SRN PART OF THE LINE MAY MAINTAIN ITSELF...ESPECIALLY IF STRONG FORWARD PROPAGATION CONTINUES AND STORMS CAN MOVE SOUTHEAST WHERE THE AIRMASS IS MORE UNSTABLE. SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ..TAYLOR.. 07/06/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX... 41228932 40689116 42159177 43489286 43589109 43208956 41968872 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 7 04:14:27 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 06 Jul 2004 23:14:27 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407060415.i664F9102657@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 060414 SWOMCD SPC MCD 060414 INZ000-ILZ000-060545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1535 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1114 PM CDT MON JUL 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL IL/WRN IN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 060414Z - 060545Z LATEST RADAR IMAGERY FROM CENTRAL IL RADAR SHOWS OUTFLOW IS BEGINNING TO OUTRUN THE MAIN CONVECTIVE LINE. HOWEVER...DEVELOPING BOW ECHO ACROSS WOODWARD COUNTY WILL POSE A THREAT FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS...AND THIS THREAT POSSIBLY EXTENDS AS FAR EAST AS MCLEAN/LIVINGSTON COUNTIES. GUSTS UP TO 38 KT HAVE BEEN REPORTED AS THE STORMS WENT THROUGH PIA...AS WELL AS A REPORT OF A TORNADO IN WOODWARD COUNTY. WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM CWI/PNT/IKK...AND DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY ARE IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S WITH FAVORABLY LOW LCL HEIGHTS. IN ADDITION...LATEST VAD WIND DATA FROM CENTRAL IL INDICATE VEERING PROFILE WITH HEIGHT...WITH NEARLY 30 KT LOW LEVEL SHEAR. NRN EXTENT OF LINE IS PROBABLY BECOMING MORE ELEVATED AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WRN SUBURBS OF CHICAGO. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO HOW FAR/LONG STORMS SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL LAST DUE TO AMOUNT OF INHIBITION. IF STORMS CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN THEMSELVES...A WW MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED DOWNSTREAM. ..TAYLOR.. 07/06/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...DVN... 39628826 39718975 40319039 41138937 41098760 40718697 39628716 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 7 04:31:55 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 06 Jul 2004 23:31:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407060432.i664Wh107280@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 060431 SWOMCD SPC MCD 060431 KSZ000-NEZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-060530- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1536 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1131 PM CDT MON JUL 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NEB...KS...NWRN OK...TX PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 569...570...572... VALID 060431Z - 060530Z ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS SHORTLY... SEVERE SQUALL LINE IS SURGING SEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AIDED BY INCREASING PRESSURE RISES IMMEDIATELY IN THE WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY...ROUGHLY 3-5MB 2HR RISES...FROM SRN NEB INTO SERN CO. DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD ACCOMPANY THIS SQUALL LINE AS IT PROPAGATES ACROSS MOST OF KS INTO NRN OK AND EVENTUALLY PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE. WW WILL BE ISSUED SOON FOR PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS REPLACING WATCH 569. ..DARROW.. 07/06/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...AMA...PUB... 37240223 37430082 38189928 39419866 40419670 39419662 36889770 35529840 35130066 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 7 04:45:02 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 06 Jul 2004 23:45:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407060445.i664jl111590@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 060445 SWOMCD SPC MCD 060444 INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-060615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1537 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1144 PM CDT MON JUL 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MO/SRN IL/SWRN IN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 571... VALID 060444Z - 060615Z COMPLICATED MCS ACROSS SRN IL CONTINUES TO POSE MAINLY A DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL THREAT. LEADING EDGE OF STORMS EXTENDS FROM RSV/AJG/HSB AND SURGING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS APPARENT FROM LATEST RADAR IMAGES. MAIN CONCERN IS FOR BACKBUILDING NEXT FEW HOURS...WHICH WILL PROLONG THE SEVERE THREAT AND HEAVY RAIN ACROSS ERN MO/ST LOUIS AREA. STRONG 500MB DIFFLUENCE MAY BE CONTRIBUTING TO INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST SYSTEM WILL BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN ITSELF INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LATEST PROFILER/VAD WIND DATA SHOW MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF AROUND 35-45 KT. IT SEEMS FORWARD PROPAGATION COMPONENT COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE WLY FLOW ALOFT MAY ALLOW SYSTEM TO SPREAD INTO SRN IN. ..TAYLOR.. 07/06/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX... 37898829 37979115 39189154 39548976 39568748 39158688 37938736 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 7 06:17:15 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 07 Jul 2004 01:17:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407060618.i666I2103594@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 060617 SWOMCD SPC MCD 060616 MOZ000-KSZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-060815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1538 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0116 AM CDT TUE JUL 06 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AND ERN KS...OK AND NERN TX PNHDLS...NWRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 572...573... VALID 060616Z - 060815Z LARGE SCALE LINEAR MCS WITH SEVERE WIND AND HAIL EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING E/SE ACROSS WATCHES 572 AND 573 NEXT FEW HOURS. NEW WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITHIN 2 HOURS TO COVER PORTIONS OF SCNTRL AND NERN OK/NWRN AR...AS WELL AS ERN KS INTO WRN MO. WELL ORGANIZED LARGE SCALE BOW ECHO COMPLEX WILL CONTINUE TO BE FUELED BY VERY MOIST AND STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS OK/KS THROUGH 09Z/4AM CDT. STRONG PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE LINE AND FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE DYNAMICS IN THE FORM OF 500MB HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING WNWLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL FURTHER SUSTAIN THE SYSTEM AS IT SPREADS E AND SEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS. CURRENTLY...THE GREATEST WIND THREAT APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ACCELERATING EMBEDDED SMALL SCALE BOW MOVING ACROSS WOODWARD AND WOODS COUNTIES IN NW OK. IN KS...VERY HIGH REFLECTIVITY WAS NOTED ALONG THE LINE FROM ICT RADAR WITH STRONG...POTENTIALLY DAMAGING...OUTFLOW WINDS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS ICT AREA IN ABOUT AN HOUR. ..CARBIN.. 07/06/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EAX...TSA...OAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...AMA...PUB... 35369629 35340073 37560290 37589894 40629696 40559431 36319639 36389703 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 7 07:45:54 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 07 Jul 2004 02:45:54 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407060746.i667ka127935@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 060746 SWOMCD SPC MCD 060745 MOZ000-KSZ000-060945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1539 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0245 AM CDT TUE JUL 06 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS AND NRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 060745Z - 060945Z STRONG MESOSCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL SPREAD EAST FROM NERN KS AND INTO NRN MO OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. GIVEN VERY MOIST AND STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THESE AREAS...A SEVERE TSTM WATCH WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED PRIOR TO 09Z. LATEST ANALYSIS DEPICTS SMALL SCALE WAVE CYCLONE COINCIDENT WITH DEEP CONVECTION ON NRN SEGMENT OF THE SQUALL LINE OVER NERN KS. DEEP BAND OF CONFLUENT LOW LEVEL FLOW WAS SITUATED TO THE EAST OF THIS MESOLOW...TO THE SOUTH OF TOP/MKC AREAS...AND THEN EAST TO STL. STORMS HAVE BEEN INCREASING WITHIN THIS FRONTOGENETIC ZONE AS MOISTURE INFLUX AND ASCENT ON STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET ACT TO OVERCOME WEAK INHIBITION. WHILE REGION ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY RESIDES BENEATH RELATIVELY WEAK MIDLEVEL FLOW BETWEEN CNTRL PLAINS SHORT WAVE AND MIDWEST SHORT WAVE...DEEP LAYER SHEAR ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR PERSISTENT UPDRAFTS AND STORM ORGANIZATION. FURTHERMORE... MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND FORCING SUGGEST SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL SHOULD SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. ..CARBIN.. 07/06/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT... 38439072 37619586 39629565 40219205 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 7 10:18:43 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 07 Jul 2004 05:18:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407061020.i66AKU109479@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 061018 SWOMCD SPC MCD 061018 MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-061215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1540 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0518 AM CDT TUE JUL 06 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS...WRN/CNTRL MO...OK...NWRN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 575...576... VALID 061018Z - 061215Z LARGE AND PROGRESSIVE MCC CONTINUES DEVELOPING EWD/SEWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS THIS MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND SOME HAIL WITHIN LEADING BAND OF INTENSE CONVECTION. LATEST IR IMAGES WERE SHOWING A GRADUALLY WARMING CLOUD CANOPY PERHAPS INDICATIVE OF A SLOW DEMISE. HOWEVER...IT WILL LIKELY BE SEVERAL MORE HOURS BEFORE LARGE STRATIFORM RAIN AREA WEAKENS AND GUST FRONT FORCING SUBSIDES. STRONG BOW ECHO HAS SURGED EAST ACROSS THE SRN MKC AREA THIS MORNING AND MAY REMAIN A FOCUS FOR WIND DAMAGE AS IT TRAVELS ALONG LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE SITUATED ACROSS NCNTRL MO. FARTHER SOUTH...EXTENSIVE ARC OF OUTFLOW WAS MOVING GENERALLY SEWD AT 30-35KT ACROSS CNTRL AND SWRN OK. CURRENT TRACKS ON THESE FEATURES WILL BRING THEM TO THE ERN AND SRN EDGES OF WATCHES 575 AND 576 BY AROUND 13Z/8AM CDT. ..CARBIN.. 07/06/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...SHV...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...FWD...OUN... 33969518 33959958 36969766 39649608 39629160 37009328 36959302 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 7 14:01:22 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 07 Jul 2004 09:01:22 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407061403.i66E3E125312@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 061401 SWOMCD SPC MCD 061400 ILZ000-MOZ000-061500- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1541 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0900 AM CDT TUE JUL 06 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 577... VALID 061400Z - 061500Z ISOLATED WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL IL THIS MORNING...BUT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING. WW MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM NERN MO INTO CENTRAL IL. AN EMBEDDED BAND OF STORMS FROM ADAMS TO CALHOUN COUNTIES IL WAS MOVING TO THE ENE AT 40 KT...WHILE THE LEADING STORMS OVER LOGAN TO MACOUPIN COUNTIES HAVE DECREASED IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE LAST HALF HOUR. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DECELERATE DURING THE NEXT HOUR AS IT MOVES ENEWD INTO A MORE STABLE AIR MASS ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL IL. WW MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY DUE TO OVERALL EXPECTED DECREASE IN SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AIR MASS FARTHER DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE OH VALLEY REGION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR NEW TSTM DEVELOPMENT AND SEVERE THREAT. ..PETERS.. 07/06/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN... 39169108 40489129 40658930 40658762 39348763 39148825 39008907 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 6 16:01:53 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 06 Jul 2004 11:01:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407061602.i66G2a113718@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 061601 SWOMCD SPC MCD 061601 KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-061700- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1542 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1101 AM CDT TUE JUL 06 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN MO/SRN IL/FAR SWRN IND/WRN KY AND NERN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 061601Z - 061700Z WW BEING CONSIDERED FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEYS FROM SERN MO/NERN AR TO SRN IL/SWRN IND/WRN KY...WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. VIS IMAGERY SHOWS CU/TCU DEVELOPING FAIRLY RAPIDLY OVER THE AREA OF CONCERN...WHERE STRONG SURFACE HEATING IS WEAKENING THE CAP. THIS HEATING COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S/ IS RESULTING IN MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE UP TO 2000-2500 J/KG/. STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS MOVING EWD ACROSS ERN KS/ERN OK ATTM PER WV IMAGERY WITH VAD/WIND PROFILER DATA SHOWING 40-45 KT MID-LEVEL FLOW WITH THIS FEATURE. INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEYS...AND SOMEWHAT WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL LIKELY ENCOURAGE SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS. SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION...WHILE UNI-DIRECTIONAL WIND FIELD WILL FAVOR DAMAGING WINDS...WITH HAIL ALSO A THREAT GIVEN MODERATE TO EXPECTED VERY STRONG INSTABILITY. ..PETERS.. 07/06/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF... 36579275 38919027 39418805 38508678 36718687 36238985 36079182 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 6 18:35:56 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 06 Jul 2004 13:35:56 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407061836.i66Iak117540@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 061836 SWOMCD SPC MCD 061835 KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-061900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1543 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0135 PM CDT TUE JUL 06 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KY AND MIDDLE TN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 061835Z - 061900Z WW WILL BE ISSUED SOON FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL KY AND MIDDLE TN. AIR MASS ACROSS CENTRAL KY AND MIDDLE TN CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE AND IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF NEW SEVERE STORMS AND/OR ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES ENEWD FROM WW 578. ..PETERS.. 07/06/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...HUN...PAH...MEG... 38578682 38488390 34968565 35008919 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 6 19:34:41 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 06 Jul 2004 14:34:41 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407061935.i66JZO111233@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 061934 SWOMCD SPC MCD 061934 KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-ILZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-062030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1544 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0234 PM CDT TUE JUL 06 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN MO/NERN AR/SRN IL/SRN IND/WRN-CENTRAL KY/WRN-MIDDLE TN/NRN MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 578...579... VALID 061934Z - 062030Z THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF SERN MO/NERN AR EWD TO SRN IL/SRN IND/WRN-CENTRAL KY/WRN-MIDDLE TN AND NRN MS. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS WW 578 WITHIN REGION THAT HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE...IN ADVANCE OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS NRN AR/SRN MO. AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRACKS ENEWD TOWARD THE LOWER OH VALLEY...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL OVER THE ERN PORTION OF WW 578 WILL MOVE INTO WRN PORTIONS OF WW 579 DURING THE NEXT HOUR. STORMS ACROSS SERN MO AND SRN IL ARE LOCATED CLOSER TO STRONGER FLOW ALOFT AND...THUS...ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF BETTER STORM ORGANIZATION INTO LINE SEGMENTS. PARAMETERS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL...WITH A GREATER THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE WITH ANY ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS/COLD POOLS. ..PETERS.. 07/06/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...HUN...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...SGF... 34619039 36049012 36959135 38569027 38748537 34918692 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 6 19:54:07 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 06 Jul 2004 14:54:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407061954.i66Jsp119709@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 061954 SWOMCD SPC MCD 061953 MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-062030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1545 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0253 PM CDT TUE JUL 06 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NRN/CENTRAL IL INTO WRN/NRN IND AND SWRN LOWER MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 061953Z - 062030Z THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN AND CENTRAL IL...ALONG A ZONE OF CONVERGENCE EXTENDING FROM NEAR CHICAGO SWWD TO JUST NORTH OF STL. WW WILL BE ISSUED SOON FOR THIS REGION AND EXTENDING EWD INTO WRN/NRN IND AND SWRN LOWER MI. 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A LOW OVER NRN LAKE MICHIGAN...NEAR GRB...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD NEAR CHICAGO TO NRN IL AND NRN MO. OBJECTIVE ANALYSES CONTINUE TO INDICATE INCREASING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS NRN IL IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY...WITH VIS IMAGERY SHOWING AN AREA OF SURFACE BASED CU. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED A STORM TRIED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THIS ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER NORTH CENTRAL IL...A SIGNAL THAT THE CAP IS WEAKENING. AIR MASS ALONG AND EAST OF THE COLD FRONT IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE...WITH 40 KT OF SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS. ..PETERS.. 07/06/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LMK...IWX...GRR...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX... 38599031 42168843 42068478 38578674 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 6 20:32:51 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 06 Jul 2004 15:32:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407062033.i66KXc104959@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 062032 SWOMCD SPC MCD 062031 OKZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-062300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1546 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0331 PM CDT TUE JUL 06 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SE CO/ERN NM/TX PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 062031Z - 062300Z TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/PROPAGATE SEWD ACROSS FAR SE CO/NE NM REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON. WE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR TSTM INITIATION ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN EITHER OR BOTH SCENARIOS...SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SOON. 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS/LATEST VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLY MORNING CONVECTION ACROSS THE SRN TX PANHANDLE INTO N TX...ROUGHLY FROM CVS-LBB VICINITIES TO NORTH OF DFW METROPLEX. IN ADDITION...CU FIELD ALSO EVIDENT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK COLD FRONT FROM THE NRN TX PANHANDLE INTO CNTRL OK. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS RELATIVELY HIGHEST PROBABILITY SCENARIO WILL BE TSTMS ORGANIZING INTO ONE OR MORE COMPLEXES ACROSS FAR SE CO/ERN NM AND PROPAGATING INTO WRN TX /AND POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF WRN OK/ LATER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ALONG AFOREMENTIONED SFC BOUNDARIES MAY ALSO BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE ISOLD TSTMS ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. W/NW MID LEVEL WINDS ABOVE BACKED E/SE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30-35 KTS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. OVERALL MAIN SEVERE HAZARD LIKELY TO BE LARGE HAIL OWING TO MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY /2000-3000 J/KG MLCAPE/ AND STEEP MID LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 8.0 C/KG. THREAT FOR AN ISOLD TORNADO MAY EXIST AS WELL...NAMELY IN VICINITY OF REMNANT BOUNDARIES. ..GUYER.. 07/06/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...MAF...PUB...ABQ... 37330501 37650400 37160275 35740133 34919954 33709965 33459991 32960083 32910145 33060346 34310462 35200495 35910512 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 6 21:35:18 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 06 Jul 2004 16:35:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407062136.i66La0132608@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 062135 SWOMCD SPC MCD 062134 MIZ000-062300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1547 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0434 PM CDT TUE JUL 06 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN LOWER MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 062134Z - 062300Z TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS CNTRL/SRN LOWER MI REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...WW MAY BE NEEDED WITHIN THE HOUR. AIRMASS ACROSS SRN LOWER MI CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE...WITH MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000-1500 J/KG AND NEGLIGIBLE CINH PER LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS AND MODIFIED 18Z DTX SOUNDING. STRONG AMBIENT WIND FIELDS /SUPPORTED BY 40 KT WLY MID LEVEL FLOW/ WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. MAIN HAZARD LIKELY TO BE DAMAGING WINDS...WITH LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE AS WELL. THREAT FOR AN ISOLD TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALSO EXIST...PARTICULARLY IN MIDST OF BACKED SLY/SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW ACROSS ERN PORTION OF LOWER MI WHERE 0-1 KM SHEAR WILL BE MAXIMIZED. ..GUYER.. 07/06/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR... 44058645 44248475 43908273 42818203 41788295 41868414 41838506 41858639 42358632 43018637 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 6 22:38:10 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 06 Jul 2004 17:38:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407062238.i66Mcq124106@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 062238 SWOMCD SPC MCD 062237 KYZ000-ILZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-062330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1548 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0537 PM CDT TUE JUL 06 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO...SRN IL...WRN KY...WRN TN...NERN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 578... VALID 062237Z - 062330Z ...A FEW STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WW MAY BE REISSUED... A SECONDARY LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE ZONE APPEARS PARTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR RECENT INCREASE IN CONVECTION FROM SERN MO INTO NERN AR...THIS DESPITE THE EARLIER TSTM CLUSTERS/MODIFICATION THAT MOVED ACROSS THE REGION. CURRENT THINKING IS NEW DEVELOPMENT MAY CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND BRIEFLY APPROACH SEVERE LEVELS. HOWEVER...DIURNAL COOLING AND MARGINAL INTENSITY MAY NOT REQUIRE AN ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR THIS REGION. ..DARROW.. 07/06/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF... 36189198 37759122 37628880 36038901 35719087 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 7 00:02:45 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 06 Jul 2004 19:02:45 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407070003.i6703S117399@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 070002 SWOMCD SPC MCD 070002 OHZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-070100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1549 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0702 PM CDT TUE JUL 06 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN OH...ERN KY...ERN TN...NERN AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 579...583... VALID 070002Z - 070100Z ...STRONG WINDS MAY OCCUR ALONG LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTION AS IT SPREADS ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEY REGION... A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF CONVECTION...ROUGHLY 50 MI WIDE...HAS EVOLVED ALONG AN AXIS FROM SWRN OH INTO NRN AL. MULTIPLE BANDED STORM MERGERS AND AN EXPANDING PRECIPITATION SHIELD SHOULD MAINTAIN OR ENHANCE EWD MOVEMENT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF ERN KY/TN TOWARD THE CREST OF THE APPALACHIANS LATER THIS EVENING. A SLOW DOWNWARD TREND IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED AS BOUNDARY COOLS AND ACTIVITY SPREADS TOWARD ERN PORTIONS OF WW. STRONG WINDS HOWEVER MAY ACCOMPANY LEADING EDGE OF THIS CONVECTION FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ..DARROW.. 07/07/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...FFC...ILN...LMK...OHX...HUN... 34548685 36978527 39208423 39468271 37238365 34468562 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 7 01:02:59 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 06 Jul 2004 20:02:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407070103.i6713k103510@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 070103 SWOMCD SPC MCD 070102 TXZ000-NMZ000-070230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1550 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0802 PM CDT TUE JUL 06 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM/WRN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 581... VALID 070102Z - 070230Z SEMI-ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS OF ERN NM INTO PORTIONS OF WRN TX WITH ATTENDANT SEVERE THREAT...CONTINUE VALID PORTION OF WW 581 /SEE LATEST WW STATUS/. AREA ACROSS WRN TX SOUTH OF WW 581 WILL BE MONITORED FOR AN ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE. CAPPING INVERSION EVIDENT IN 00Z AMA SOUNDING IS EXPECTED TO INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE NRN TX PANHANDLE...STABILIZED IN POST-FRONTAL/OUTFLOW AIRMASS. FURTHER SOUTH...AIRMASS REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE ACROSS SE NM INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS OF TX/TRANSPECOS REGION. TSTM CLUSTERS WILL LIKELY SPREAD SEWD INTO THIS REGION...SUPPORTED BY INSTABILITY AXIS AND DEVELOPING SLY 30 KT LOW LEVEL JET. AT LEAST AN ISOLD SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS OWING TO DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL SHEAR. ..GUYER.. 07/07/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...EPZ... 35330471 35220122 34720086 32990050 31830056 31510202 31650374 32340492 33390534 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 7 01:04:04 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 06 Jul 2004 20:04:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407070104.i6714j104167@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 070104 SWOMCD SPC MCD 070103 MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-070200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1551 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0803 PM CDT TUE JUL 06 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LOWER MI...NWRN OH...IND...ERN IL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 580...582... VALID 070103Z - 070200Z ...DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR THE MAIN THREAT WITH ONGOING TSTM ACTIVITY... 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM THE OH VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION DEPICT MODEST DEEP LAYER WLY FLOW AHEAD OF UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE OVER THE MS VALLEY. CONVECTION THAT HAS DEVELOPED FROM ERN IL INTO LOWER MI HAS STRUGGLED TO INTENSIFY...POSSIBLY DUE TO MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...LAPSE RATES ON THE ORDER OF 6-6.5 AND SBCAPE ROUGHLY 1000J/KG. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION BUT OVERALL TRENDS SUGGEST ONLY ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY THE MAIN THREAT. ..DARROW.. 07/07/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX... 39818840 41068742 42368647 43278332 42698253 39828658 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 7 01:04:21 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 06 Jul 2004 20:04:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407070105.i6715K104388@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 070103 SWOMCD SPC MCD 070102 TXZ000-NMZ000-070230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1550 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0802 PM CDT TUE JUL 06 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM/WRN TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 581... VALID 070102Z - 070230Z SEMI-ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS OF ERN NM INTO PORTIONS OF WRN TX WITH ATTENDANT SEVERE THREAT...CONTINUE VALID PORTION OF WW 581 /SEE LATEST WW STATUS/. AREA ACROSS WRN TX SOUTH OF WW 581 WILL BE MONITORED FOR AN ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE. CAPPING INVERSION EVIDENT IN 00Z AMA SOUNDING IS EXPECTED TO INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE NRN TX PANHANDLE...STABILIZED IN POST-FRONTAL/OUTFLOW AIRMASS. FURTHER SOUTH...AIRMASS REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE ACROSS SE NM INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS OF TX/TRANSPECOS REGION. TSTM CLUSTERS WILL LIKELY SPREAD SEWD INTO THIS REGION...SUPPORTED BY INSTABILITY AXIS AND DEVELOPING SLY 30 KT LOW LEVEL JET. AT LEAST AN ISOLD SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS OWING TO DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL SHEAR. ..GUYER.. 07/07/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...EPZ... 35330471 35220122 34720086 32990050 31830056 31510202 31650374 32340492 33390534  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 7 01:06:40 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 06 Jul 2004 20:06:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407070107.i6717M104815@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 070104 SWOMCD SPC MCD 070103 MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-070200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1551 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0803 PM CDT TUE JUL 06 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LOWER MI...NWRN OH...IND...ERN IL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 580...582... VALID 070103Z - 070200Z ...DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR THE MAIN THREAT WITH ONGOING TSTM ACTIVITY... 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM THE OH VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION DEPICT MODEST DEEP LAYER WLY FLOW AHEAD OF UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE OVER THE MS VALLEY. CONVECTION THAT HAS DEVELOPED FROM ERN IL INTO LOWER MI HAS STRUGGLED TO INTENSIFY...POSSIBLY DUE TO MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...LAPSE RATES ON THE ORDER OF 6-6.5 AND SBCAPE ROUGHLY 1000J/KG. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION BUT OVERALL TRENDS SUGGEST ONLY ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY THE MAIN THREAT. ..DARROW.. 07/07/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX... 39818840 41068742 42368647 43278332 42698253 39828658  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 7 04:49:09 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 06 Jul 2004 23:49:09 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407070449.i674np107502@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 070449 SWOMCD SPC MCD 070448 OKZ000-TXZ000-070615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1552 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1148 PM CDT TUE JUL 06 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN OK...NWRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 070448Z - 070615Z ...THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING ACROSS SWRN OK AND PORTIONS OF NWRN TX... SUSTAINED WEAK WARM ADVECTION...PER FDR/TLX VAD WINDS...HAS FINALLY FORCED PARCELS TO LFC AND ELEVATED CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO BREAK OUT ACROSS MUCH OF SWRN OK AND EXTREME NWRN TX NEAR CDS. THIS ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE TO EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE GIVEN THE 00Z SOUNDING OBSERVED AT OUN...STEEP LAPSE RATES...MINIMAL INHIBITION...AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.8 INCHES. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE A BIT WARM AND MOIST TO SUPPORT MORE THAN MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL. WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME BUT WILL BE MONITORED FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THIS ACTIVITY. ..DARROW.. 07/07/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB... 34480028 35479889 35309752 33849729 33039982 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 7 06:57:36 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 07 Jul 2004 01:57:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407070658.i676wM111693@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 070656 SWOMCD SPC MCD 070655 OKZ000-TXZ000-070830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1553 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0155 AM CDT WED JUL 07 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN TX AND SWRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 584...585... VALID 070655Z - 070830Z BOW ECHO NOW OVER STONEWALL...FISHER...NOLAN...AND MITCHELL COUNTIES OF NWRN TX WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST AT 40-45KT WITH POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS. SYSTEM HAS WELL DEVELOPED COLD POOL AND FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL INFLOW WHICH SHOULD SUSTAIN RAPID SEWD PROPAGATION THROUGH THE SRN PARTS OF WW 585 OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. FARTHER NORTH...CLUSTER OF SEVERE STORMS WAS CONCENTRATED ACROSS PARTS OF SWRN OK TO THE NORTH OF DIFFUSE FRONTAL BAND/LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE AXIS. SO FAR...THIS CONVECTION HAS SHOWN ERRATIC AND SLOW PROPAGATION WITHIN VEERING WIND PROFILE AND WEAK LOW THROUGH MID LEVEL FLOW. GIVEN VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT SOME HAIL AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM THIS ACTIVITY. THIS ACTIVITY COULD BECOME INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED ALONG EDGE OF A DEEPENING COLD POOL IN A COUPLE HOURS AND PERHAPS SPREAD SEWD ACROSS THE RED RIVER. HOWEVER...THAT TREND IS NOT YET APPARENT IN RADAR LOOPS. ..CARBIN.. 07/07/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF... 31779917 31790197 32910101 32980148 33980182 34180237 34620203 34749997 34909924 34879604 32049854 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 7 08:11:04 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 07 Jul 2004 03:11:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407070811.i678Bm132507@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 070811 SWOMCD SPC MCD 070810 ARZ000-OKZ000-071115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1554 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0310 AM CDT WED JUL 07 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND SERN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 070810Z - 071115Z TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE EWD FROM PORTIONS OF CNTRL OK INTO ERN OK THROUGH DAYBREAK. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD CONTAIN HAIL AND STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS. A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED BUT OVERALL STORM ORGANIZATION REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. WEAK STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS CNTRL AND SRN OK EARLY TODAY. A SUBSYNOPTIC WAVE HAS FORMED ON THE BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OF LTS. LOW LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE/CONFLUENCE AXIS WAS ANALYZED IN 850MB FLOW ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY GENERALLY ALONG A LINE FROM LTS TO NORTH OF MLC. GIVEN PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL ASCENT WITHIN THIS AXIS POSSIBLY ENHANCED BY EWD MOVEMENT OF THE LOW...TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INITIATE ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IN ADDITION TO WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE BOUNDARY...PRC PROFILER DATA SHOWED RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW THROUGH THE TROPOSPHERE WITH 25KT 0-6KM SHEAR. THUS...EXPECT WEAKLY ORGANIZED MULTICELL STORM CHARACTER WITH A SLOW EWD/ESEWD MOTION. MAGNITUDE OF CAPE WOULD SUPPORT A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL COULD ACCOMPANY THE MORE INTENSE UPDRAFTS. REPEAT AND SLOW MOVING STORMS AND WARM CLOUD DEPTH AROUND 3KM ALSO RAISES THE PROSPECT OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. ..CARBIN.. 07/07/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...OUN... 34469468 34469678 34879721 35289741 35919666 35909456 34979422 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 7 15:20:54 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 07 Jul 2004 10:20:54 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407071521.i67FLY127297@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 071521 SWOMCD SPC MCD 071520 MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-071615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1555 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1020 AM CDT WED JUL 07 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN AR AND FAR NRN LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 071520Z - 071615Z THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INCREASING IN INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS SRN AR AS THE DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS DESTABILIZES ACROSS SRN AR/FAR NRN LA INTO CENTRAL MS. WW NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR BETTER STORM ORGANIZATION WITH ONGOING ACTIVITY ACROSS SERN OK INTO WRN AR. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW AN MCV ALONG THE OK/AR BORDER /FROM LE FLORE COUNTY OK TO POLK COUNTY AR/...WHICH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER/MCS OVER THIS REGION. LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW A BOWING STRUCTURE DEVELOPING FROM THE MCV SWWD INTO FAR NERN TX...AND MOVING TO THE ESE AT 25-35 KT. THIS INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS LIKELY RELATED TO A STRENGTHENING COLD POOL WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MIDDLE 60S ACROSS SERN OK...COMPARED TO TEMPERATURES RISING INTO LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S OVER SRN AR/FAR NRN LA. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS FROM THE MCS WILL ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING/SUBSEQUENT BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION...WITH INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDING EWD INTO MS/AL. DESPITE WEAK DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS...STRENGTHENING COLD POOL MAY INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS BY 18Z...ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN AR/FAR NRN LA...AND THEN EWD INTO CENTRAL MS. ..PETERS.. 07/07/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV... 34309363 34219182 33989017 32669036 32689200 32909366 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 7 15:50:18 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 07 Jul 2004 10:50:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407071550.i67Fov109664@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 071549 SWOMCD SPC MCD 071549 MDZ000-NCZ000-VAZ000-071645- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1556 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1049 AM CDT WED JUL 07 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL-ERN VA/PORTIONS SRN MD SWD TO NRN NC CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE VALID 071549Z - 071645Z SLIGHT RISK OVER THE INTERIOR NERN STATES WILL BE EXTENDED SWD ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL-ERN VA/SRN MD TO NRN NC WITH THE 1630Z DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED DURING THE LAST HOUR ALONG THE FOOTHILLS OF CENTRAL VA...WITHIN REGION OF WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINED WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF UPPER OH VALLEY SHORT WAVE TROUGH. AIR MASS OVER CENTRAL-ERN VA/SRN MD SWD TO NRN NC HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE...WHERE STRONG SURFACE HEATING /SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S/ AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS RESULTING IN A MODERATELY TO VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. VAD WIND DATA FROM CENTRAL PA SWWD TO SWRN VA INDICATED A BAND OF 30-40 KT WSWLY LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW WHICH WILL SUPPORT LINE SEGMENTS AND A FEW SPLITTING SUPERCELLS...WITH MAINLY A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS. IF ACTIVITY SHOWS SIGNS OF INCREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY...THEN A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY. ..PETERS.. 07/07/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...RNK... 36587839 37847833 38737719 38577618 36717626 35787673 35577766 35937850 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 7 17:20:29 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 07 Jul 2004 12:20:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407071721.i67HL9120654@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 071720 SWOMCD SPC MCD 071719 MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-IAZ000-071815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1557 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1219 PM CDT WED JUL 07 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NEB/NERN KS/FAR NWRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 071719Z - 071815Z ELEVATED STORMS /ROOTED IN THE 650-700 MB LAYER PER 12Z LBF RAOB AND 15Z RUC POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS/ MAY PRODUCE A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL EVENTS ACROSS SERN NEB INTO NERN KS...AND FAR NWRN MO DURING THE AFTERNOON. 16Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM WEST CENTRAL NEB SEWD TO ERN KS...WITH THE AIR MASS ACROSS SWRN NEB/WRN KS HAVING BECOME MODERATELY TO VERY UNSTABLE. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW A CLUSTER OF STORMS MOVING SEWD ACROSS ERN NEB /ALONG AND TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT/. 25 KT SWLY LLJ EXTENDING FROM WRN KS TO ERN NEB/NERN KS WILL MAINTAIN A FEED OF UNSTABLE AIR INTO THESE ELEVATED STORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AREA VADS/WIND PROFILER DATA INDICATED FAVORABLE DIRECTIONAL AND DEEP LAYER SPEED SHEAR WITHIN THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER FOR ELEVATED SUPERCELLS. COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY...STORMS SHOULD BE ABLE TO SUSTAIN ROTATING UPDRAFTS WITH AN ISOLATED HAIL THREAT. ..PETERS.. 07/07/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID... 38819710 40529847 41649801 41549658 40909577 39619475 39029559 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 7 17:47:57 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 07 Jul 2004 12:47:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407071748.i67Hma101133@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 071748 SWOMCD SPC MCD 071747 FLZ000-GAZ000-071915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1558 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1247 PM CDT WED JUL 07 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...FL PENINSULA NWD TO SRN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 071747Z - 071915Z ISOLATED WET MICROBURSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE FL PENINSULA NWD INTO SRN GA. AIR MASS ACROSS FL INTO SRN GA HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE /MLCAPE 3000+ J/KG/...GIVEN COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES /AROUND -8 C AT 500 MB/ COMBINED WITH A WARM AND VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW STRONG...HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ALONG THE FL WEST COAST SEA BREEZE AND ALONG A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVING EWD ACROSS SRN GA. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THESE SURFACE BOUNDARIES AND LAKE/CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AS THE AIR MASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL TEND TO FAVOR PULSE-TYPE STORMS...WITH FAIRLY HIGH FREEZING/WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AND A MOIST ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTING WET MICROBURSTS AS THE PRIMARY THREAT. ..PETERS.. 07/07/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...FFC...TAE... 26358185 27238238 28368216 29198225 30278280 31358357 32158332 32188222 31578155 30478153 29238124 28628087 27238029 26558046 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 7 18:12:13 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 07 Jul 2004 13:12:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407071812.i67ICq112623@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 071812 SWOMCD SPC MCD 071812 ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-072015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1559 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0112 PM CDT WED JUL 07 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SE AR/NRN MS INTO WRN TN/NRN AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 071812Z - 072015Z TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON MAY POSE ISOLD WET MICROBURST/DAMAGING WIND THREAT. WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. TSTMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP FROM SE AR/NRN MS INTO WRN TN/NRN AL AHEAD OF REMNANT CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ACROSS CNTRL AR AND SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT. AIRMASS IN THIS REGION HAS ALREADY BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE...WITH PLENTIFUL INSOLATION AND LOW/MID 70S SFC DEWPOINTS SUPPORTING 2000-3000 J/KG MLCAPE. 12Z LZK/JAN RAOBS AND LATEST OKOLONA MS PROFILER DATA PORTRAY RATHER WEAK AMBIENT WIND FIELDS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH WLY LOW TO MID LEVEL WINDS OF 15-20 KT OR LESS. GIVEN MODERATE INSTABILITY/MINIMAL SHEAR AND LITTLE BACKGROUND SUPPORT...TSTM MODE WILL BE PRIMARILY PULSE IN NATURE...WITH THREAT FOR ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ISOLD NATURE OF SEVERE THREAT WILL PRECLUDE NECESSITY FOR WW. ..GUYER.. 07/07/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK... 34959154 35499051 36248868 36328777 35078712 33918755 33338857 33209002 33129115 33069158 33399182 33959204 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 7 18:15:34 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 07 Jul 2004 13:15:34 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407071816.i67IGD114635@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 071815 SWOMCD SPC MCD 071814 MTZ000-071945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1560 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0114 PM CDT WED JUL 07 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INTO ERN MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 071814Z - 071945Z THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MT...AND SPREAD EWD. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. WW MAY BE REQUIRED BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. VIS IMAGERY SHOWS CU DEVELOPING FROM BLAINE TO FERGUS COUNTIES WHICH IS ON THE WRN EDGE OF A LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/DEVELOPING INSTABILITY GRADIENT. ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES RISING THROUGH THE 80S OVER ERN MT COMBINED WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 50S WILL RESULT IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY /MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 500 J/KG/. 50 KT MID-LEVEL SWLY SPEED MAX ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG PAC NW MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL NOSE INTO WRN/CENTRAL MT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH UVVS INCREASING WITHIN EXIT REGION/DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR STORM ORGANIZATION... BUT MARGINAL INSTABILITY MAY LIMIT SEVERE COVERAGE. ..PETERS.. 07/07/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX... 47060902 48890874 48830497 46580478 45250513 45330900 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 7 18:35:51 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 07 Jul 2004 13:35:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407071836.i67Iak124017@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 071836 SWOMCD SPC MCD 071835 PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-071930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1561 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0135 PM CDT WED JUL 07 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL-ERN MD/DC/SERN PA/ERN VA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 586... VALID 071835Z - 071930Z PARAMETERS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH LINE SEGMENTS...AND ISOLATED HAIL. AT 1820Z...REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED A SMALL BOWING SEGMENT MOVING ENE AT 35 KT ACROSS FAR ERN VA...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES THROUGH WESTMORELAND AND NORTHUMBERLAND COUNTIES VA TO THE SRN CHESAPEAKE BAY BETWEEN 1830-19Z. ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS FROM SERN PA TO SERN VA...WHERE A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT BOTH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ..PETERS.. 07/07/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RAH... 40487743 40487554 36577639 36557823 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 7 19:07:15 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 07 Jul 2004 14:07:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407071907.i67J7s105452@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 071907 SWOMCD SPC MCD 071906 KSZ000-NEZ000-071930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1562 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0206 PM CDT WED JUL 07 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEB AND NRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 071906Z - 071930Z WW MAY BE REQUIRED BY 1930Z FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEB AND NRN KS. 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS COMBINED WITH VIS IMAGERY SHOWED SEVERAL SURFACE BOUNDARIES INTERSECTING ALONG THE NEB/KS BORDER NEAR 40 S HSI. A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM WRN NEB SEWD THROUGH THE POINT 40 S HSI TO SERN KS...WHILE TWO SURFACE TROUGHS EXTENDED SWD AND SWWD FROM THE BOUNDARY INTERSECTION ALONG THE NEB/KS BORDER. WARM SECTOR AIR MASS HAS BECOME MODERATELY TO EXTREMELY UNSTABLE...WITH SWLY LLJ CONTINUING TO FEED THIS AIR MASS INTO THE ELEVATED STORMS ALONG AND EAST OF THE WARM FRONT. STORMS HAVE BECOME RAPIDLY SEVERE DURING THE LAST HALF HOUR AT THIS INTERSECTION...WHICH MAY BE A SIGN THAT ACTIVITY IS BECOMING SURFACE BASED GIVEN EXTREME INSTABILITY TO THE SOUTHWEST. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR RESULTING IN SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY. ..PETERS.. 07/07/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD... 39169943 41390106 41409887 38569661 38219644 38149864 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 7 19:32:42 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 07 Jul 2004 14:32:42 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407071933.i67JXR118485@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 071932 SWOMCD SPC MCD 071931 TXZ000-072130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1563 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0231 PM CDT WED JUL 07 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ECNTRL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 071931Z - 072130Z DEVELOPING TSTMS MAY POSE ISOLD/MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. TSTMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS NCNTRL TX OWING TO REMNANT MCV/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION...WITH ACTIVITY LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND/OR SPREAD S/SE ACROSS ECNTRL TX. 18Z RUC POINT SOUNDINGS AND MODIFIED 12Z DFW/SHV RAOBS SUGGEST NEGLIGIBLE CINH OVER THE REGION...WITH MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 2500-3500 J/KG OWING TO UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S AND LOWER 70S TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS RESPECTIVELY. WEAK WINDS ARE EVIDENT ACROSS THE REGION PER PALESTINE TX PROFILER AND AREA VWPS WITH WLY WINDS 15-20 KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE LOW TO MID TROPOSPHERE. WEAK AMBIENT SHEAR/VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS SUGGESTS MICROBURSTS/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLD LARGE HAIL A POSSIBILITY AS WELL WITH THE MOST VIGOROUS TSTMS. ..GUYER.. 07/07/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT... 32549790 32919665 32959510 32689450 31689450 31099525 30489644 30259752 30179820 31079861 31469872 31989848 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 7 23:15:40 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 07 Jul 2004 18:15:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407072316.i67NGI113981@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 072315 SWOMCD SPC MCD 072315 KSZ000-NEZ000-OKZ000-080045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1564 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0615 PM CDT WED JUL 07 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...S CENTRAL NEB / CENTRAL KS... CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 587... VALID 072315Z - 080045Z SEVERE / SUPERCELL STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS N CENTRAL KS IN THE SRN HALF OF WW 587. CLUSTER OF SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES ACROSS N CENTRAL KS ATTM...ALONG STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE / OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LYING ACROSS THIS REGION. WITH STORMS ON THE NERN EDGE OF LARGE INSTABILITY AXIS AND LOW-LEVEL JET / THETA-E ADVECTION FORECAST TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...EXPECT STORMS / SEVERE THREAT TO CONTINUE. ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD WOULD SUGGEST A SELY STORM MOTION...INCREASING SLY / SSWLY LOW-LEVEL JET WOULD FAVOR A MORE SWD MOVEMENT -- PARTICULARLY IF AN ORGANIZED COLD POOL DEVELOPS. WITH LITTLE DEVELOPMENT ANTICIPATED ATTM ACROSS SRN NEB / NRN PORTIONS OF WW DUE TO CAPPING AND SHORT-WAVE RIDGING ALOFT...SEVERE THREAT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF WW OVER NRN / CENTRAL KS. WITH TIME...THREAT SHOULD SHIFT SWD TOWARD SRN KS / OK...WITH NEW WW POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS AREA IN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. ..GOSS.. 07/07/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD... 38129596 37159562 36939922 38379928 41750139 41739868 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 8 01:21:29 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 07 Jul 2004 20:21:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407080122.i681M7123494@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 080121 SWOMCD SPC MCD 080120 NDZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-080245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1565 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0820 PM CDT WED JUL 07 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MT / WRN ND / NWRN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 588... VALID 080120Z - 080245Z LOOSELY-ORGANIZED LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES MOVING EWD ACROSS ERN MT / WW 588. SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...AND MAY SPREAD E OF WW INTO WRN ND AND PARTS OF NWRN SD WITH TIME. NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED...WHILE SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS MAINLY ERN PORTIONS OF WW 588. LATEST DATA INDICATES A SLOWLY STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS ATTM...BUT AXIS OF INSTABILITY REMAINS FROM NERN MT SSEWD INTO WRN SD. STRONG CONVERGENCE IS INDICATED ALONG FRONT MOVING EWD ACROSS ERN MT...WHERE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE ONGOING ATTM. ALTHOUGH MAIN SEVERE THREAT HAS BEEN DAMAGING WINDS WITH HIGH-BASED STORMS...COOLING / STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET / WARM ADVECTION OVER THIS REGION SUGGESTS THAT STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME INCREASINGLY ELEVATED WITH TIME...WITH MAIN SEVERE THREAT TRANSITIONING TOWARD HAIL. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY AXIS REMAINS NARROW / CONFINED TO ERN MT / THE WRN DAKOTAS...A NARROW WW MAY BE REQUIRED E OF CURRENT WATCH ASSUMING STORMS REMAIN STRONG / ORGANIZED OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. ..GOSS.. 07/08/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW... 47970625 49010401 49020236 45840218 44300242 45030488 45200624 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 8 02:24:00 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 07 Jul 2004 21:24:00 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407080224.i682Oc112609@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 080223 SWOMCD SPC MCD 080223 KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-080400- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1566 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0923 PM CDT WED JUL 07 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL KS / N CENTRAL AND NWRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 589... VALID 080223Z - 080400Z CLUSTER OF SEVERE STORMS IS MOVING SWD ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF WW ATTM. SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES...AND MAY SPREAD INTO S CENTRAL KS AND ADJACENT NWRN / N CENTRAL OK OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. STORMS HAVE BEGUN A SWD PROPAGATION ACROSS CENTRAL KS...WITH STRONGEST STORMS MOVING ACROSS ELLIS AND RUSSELL COUNTIES INTO RUSH AND BARTON COUNTIES ATTM. REPORTS OF A TORNADO ON THE GROUND HAVE BEEN RECEIVED FROM RUSSELL COUNTY...AND LARGE HAIL ALSO APPEARS LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS. IN ADDITION...STORM CLUSTER APPEARS TO BE TAKING ON A BOW SHAPE ATTM...WHICH SUGGESTS AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AS THIS CLUSTER MOVES SWD. OVER THE NEXT HOUR STORMS WILL APPROACH THE SRN FRINGE OF WW. ALTHOUGH OBJECTIVE ANALYSES AND LAMONT OK RAOB INDICATE A SOMEWHAT LESS UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS SRN KS / NRN OK...INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW STORMS TO CONTINUE -- PARTICULARLY GIVEN INCREASING SSWLY LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS THIS REGION. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS...AND ASSUMING STORMS REMAIN ORGANIZED...NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED S OF WW 589. ..GOSS.. 07/08/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...AMA... 39320007 39589844 38739771 37229773 36329786 36029910 36500018 38300023 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 8 06:35:35 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 08 Jul 2004 01:35:35 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407080636.i686aE123374@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 080635 SWOMCD SPC MCD 080634 SDZ000-NDZ000-080800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1567 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0134 AM CDT THU JUL 08 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MT...WRN ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 590... VALID 080634Z - 080800Z STRONGLY DYNAMIC UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS OVERNIGHT WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT DEVELOPING EAST ACROSS ERN MT. A NARROW AXIS OF MODEST INSTABILITY...MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 800 J/KG...HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN THE ZONE OF STRONGLY FORCED ASCENT FROM ERN MT ACROSS SWRN ND. EXPECT THIS INSTABILITY TO CONTINUE TO FUEL ISOLD TO WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS. A SMALL MCS MAY EVOLVE FROM THIS CONVECTION AND DEVELOP ESEWD ACROSS WRN/CNTRL PORTIONS OF ND AND SD. A NEW WATCH MAY BE CONSIDERED IF THIS APPEARS MORE CERTAIN. THERE ARE LIKELY TO BE TWO MECHANISMS THAT DRIVE ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. 1) THE COLD FRONT MOVING EAST ACROSS MT...AND 2) THE LEADING EDGE OF A NARROW WARM SECTOR ACROSS NRN SD/SRN ND. AS STORMS MOVE EAST...UPDRAFTS SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY DECOUPLED FROM THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS. NONETHELESS...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION WILL FAVOR ELEVATED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY TEND TO ANCHOR OR BACKBUILD ALONG THE DEVELOPING WARM FRONT/LLJ FROM WRN SD INTO SRN ND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IF THIS SCENARIO UNFOLDS AND SEVERE STORM COVERAGE INCREASES...A NEW WATCH MAY BE NEEDED. ..CARBIN.. 07/08/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR... 45870243 46580401 47480340 47570121 46920030 45380057 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 8 12:28:20 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 08 Jul 2004 07:28:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407081228.i68CSu100595@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 081228 SWOMCD SPC MCD 081228 MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-081500- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1568 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0728 AM CDT THU JUL 08 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS...NERN OK...WRN MO...NWRN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 081228Z - 081500Z A SEVERE TSTM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS PARTS OF ERN KS/WRN MO...NERN OK...AND NWRN AR LATER THIS MORNING. STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY ACROSS ERN KS/WRN MO LATER THIS MORNING WHILE DRIFTING SLOWLY SOUTH. TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED ACROSS ERN KS ALONG SURFACE WARM FRONT AND PRONOUNCED LOW LEVEL THETAE AXIS. INITIATION OF THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN A RESULT OF STRONG MOISTURE FLUX ON THE NOSE OF 30-35KT LOW LEVEL JET DIRECTED INTO THE FRONTAL ZONE. IN ADDITION... FAVORABLE BACKGROUND ASCENT AND MID LEVEL DESTABILIZATION IS LIKELY FROM SMALL MCV LEFT OVER FROM LAST EVENING/S DEEP CONVECTION. WHILE CURRENT ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE ROOTED AOA 850MB AND WAS PROBABLY ONLY REALIZING LIMITED DEEP LAYER SHEAR... THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR NEAR SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION GIVEN A FEW MORE HOURS OF HEATING. GIVEN VERY MOIST AIRMASS AND LOW THROUGH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 7.5 C/KM...STRONG TO LOCALLY EXTREME INSTABILITY WILL BE AVAILABLE. AS UPDRAFTS ROOT INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER...DIRECTIONAL SHEAR NEAR THE FRONTAL ZONE COULD SUPPORT A FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND STRONG... POSSIBLY DAMAGING...DOWNDRAFTS. ..CARBIN.. 07/08/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT... 36189435 37469697 39409691 39689601 38249313 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 8 15:09:50 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 08 Jul 2004 10:09:50 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407081510.i68FAQ107449@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 081509 SWOMCD SPC MCD 081509 MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-081715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1569 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1009 AM CDT THU JUL 08 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SE KS...NE OK...AND EXTREME SW MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 081509Z - 081715Z POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED HAIL AND MICROBURSTS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SLOWLY SWD-SSEWD THROUGH SERN KS...NE OK AND POSSIBLY INTO EXTREME SW MO NEXT 2-3 HOURS. AT THIS TIME...THREAT APPEARS TOO MARGINAL FOR A WW. HOWEVER...IF STORMS MANAGE TO BECOME SURFACE BASED...THE SEVERE THREAT WOULD INCREASE. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. CLUSTER OF STORMS THAT DEVELOPED IN ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION ON NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUES ACROSS SERN KS. THE ACTIVITY STILL APPEARS TO BE ELEVATED...BUT AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES AND CAP WEAKENS ACROSS SERN KS...SW MO AND NE OK...STORMS MAY BECOME SURFACE BASED. THE LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD WEAKEN WITH TIME THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...THE DEGREE OF PERSISTENCE IS DEPENDENT IN PART ON WHETHER OR NOT THE STORMS CAN ORGANIZE A COLD POOL WHICH WOULD ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR DOWNWIND PROPAGATION. WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY SERVE AS LIMITING FACTORS FOR AN ORGANIZED WIND/HAIL THREAT. HOWEVER...THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS INCLUDING STRONG INSTABILITY AND STEEP LAPSE RATES APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND MICROBURSTS IF STORMS MANAGE TO BECOME SURFACE BASED. ..DIAL.. 07/08/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT... 37149394 36099537 37169696 38129540 38029405 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 8 18:34:03 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 08 Jul 2004 13:34:03 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407081834.i68IYc130209@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 081834 SWOMCD SPC MCD 081833 NHZ000-MAZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-082030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1570 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0133 PM CDT THU JUL 08 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NY/NE PA/NRN NJ INTO VT/MA/CT AND WRN NH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 081833Z - 082030Z TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...BUT A SEVERE WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. AIRMASS AHEAD OF SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT/SE ONTARIO SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. 18Z OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS 100MB MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS FAR ERN NY...OWING TO MODEST INSOLATION WITH LOW/MID 80S TEMPS AND MID/UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS. ALTHOUGH INITIALLY LIMITED BY CLOUD COVER INVOF WARM FRONT...THIS DESTABILIZATION TREND WILL GRADUALLY CONTINUE EWD THROUGH VT/MA/CT THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON. GIVEN MODERATE INSTABILITY...LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES -- AS EVIDENT IN 12Z BUF/ALB RAOBS -- WITH W/SW MID LEVEL WINDS OF 30-40 KTS WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED MULTICELL/LINEAR CLUSTERS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLD DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN SEVERE HAZARD. IN ADDITION...SEVERE HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST VIGOROUS TSTMS. ANTICIPATED MARGINAL NATURE OF OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE WW ISSUANCE...HOWEVER TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. ..GUYER.. 07/08/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM... 44827448 44917198 44367200 42967211 41697262 41097369 40687426 40757516 41127569 42077550 43227515 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 8 19:29:24 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 08 Jul 2004 14:29:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407081929.i68JTx126586@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 081929 SWOMCD SPC MCD 081929 DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-082100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1571 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0229 PM CDT THU JUL 08 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN VA/FAR NERN NC INTO DE/MD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 081929Z - 082100Z POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. PLENTIFUL INSOLATION/HUMID AIRMASS IS CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE AS HIGH AS 1000-1500 J/KG ACROSS SE VA PER LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. ALTHOUGH MODERATE INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE...UNIDIRECTIONAL AMBIENT WIND FIELDS ARE MARGINAL AS REGION REMAINS ON SRN PERIPHERY OF STRONGER WLY MID LEVEL FLOW. NEVERTHELESS...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY/WIND PROFILES EXIST FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO LIMITING SEVERE HAIL POTENTIAL...RISING UPPER HEIGHTS/ENSUING NVA IN WAKE OF ERN CANADA SHORTWAVE TROUGH SUGGESTS ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE CONFINED TO THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ..GUYER.. 07/08/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RAH... 36757790 37007785 37587737 38707637 38917550 38657505 37307554 36317593 36067642 36077706 36277796 36437806 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 8 20:18:57 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 08 Jul 2004 15:18:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407082019.i68KJV116009@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 082018 SWOMCD SPC MCD 082018 NEZ000-SDZ000-WYZ000-082215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1572 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0318 PM CDT THU JUL 08 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN WY THROUGH THE NEB PANHANDLE AND SW SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 082018Z - 082215Z STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY INTO THE EVENING AS THEY MOVE EWD FROM SE WY INTO WRN NEB AND SWRN SD. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. LATEST RADAR DATA SHOW ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING OVER SERN WY WHERE STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND DEEP MIXING HAS WEAKENED THE CAP. THE DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WITH LARGE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS IS LIMITING MLCAPE TO AOB 1000 J/KG OVER SERN WY AND WILL PROMOTE HIGH BASED CONVECTION. STORMS MAY INTENSIFY AS THEY DEVELOP EAST INTO WRN NEB AND INTERCEPT SLIGHTLY RICHER MOISTURE AND STRONGER INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. A 60 KT MID LEVEL JET ROTATING THROUGH BASE OF UPPER TROUGH WY AND EVENTUALLY INTO SD THIS EVENING WILL SUPPORT DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...BUT HIGH BASED NATURE OF THE STORMS SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE THREAT TO PRIMARILY ISOLATED HAIL AND WIND. ..DIAL.. 07/08/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS... 41080287 41340505 43280406 43270259 41760219 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 8 20:49:42 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 08 Jul 2004 15:49:42 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407082050.i68KoH129784@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 082049 SWOMCD SPC MCD 082049 MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-082215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1573 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0349 PM CDT THU JUL 08 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NE OK...SW MO AND NW AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 591... VALID 082049Z - 082215Z THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL EXPECTED TO PERSIST NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH LINE OF STORMS ACROSS NERN OK...SW MO AND NW AR. BASED ON CURRENT MOVEMENT OF ERN PARTS OF THE LINE...STORMS MAY BEGIN TO MOVE SE OF WW 591 AND FARTHER INTO NW AR AFTER 22Z. IF STORMS MAINTAIN THEIR INTENSITY AS THEY DEVELOP SEWD...ANOTHER WW MIGHT BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF NW AR. STORMS HAVE INTENSIFIED AND EVOLVED INTO A LINE ALONG LEADING CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LEFT OVER FROM THIS MORNINGS STORMS. AS OF 2030Z THIS AFTERNOON THE LINE EXTENDS FROM NEAR SPRINGFIELD MO SWWD TO N OF TULSA. THE ERN PARTS OF THE LINE ARE MOVING SEWD AT 25 TO 30 KT...WHILE THE WRN PORTION IS DEVELOPING SWD AT 15 TO 20 KT. THE STORMS HAVE BECOME SURFACE BASED AND FORWARD PROPAGATING. STORMS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW AND VERTICAL SHEAR...AND THE UNFAVORABLE KINEMATICS MIGHT LIMIT HOW FAR SOUTH STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO DEVELOP. NEVERTHELESS...THE DOWNSTREAM ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED ACROSS NERN OK AND NRN AR...WHICH SUGGESTS STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ALONG LEADING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. ..DIAL.. 07/08/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA... 36469552 36629440 37419333 36169308 35509478 35509566 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 8 22:43:52 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 08 Jul 2004 17:43:52 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407082244.i68MiX111410@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 082243 SWOMCD SPC MCD 082243 MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-082345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1574 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0543 PM CDT THU JUL 08 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NERN AND EXTREME E-CENTRAL OK...NWRN AND N-CENTRAL AR...SWRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 591... VALID 082243Z - 082345Z PER COORDINATION WITH TUL...ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS MENTIONED BELOW...AND LATEST OVERALL DOWNWARD CONVECTIVE TRENDS WITH MCS...SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH AS ACTIVITY MOVES FARTHER SEWD INTO AR AND EXTREME ERN OK. THEREFORE...PRIND REMAINDER WW WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. REFLECTIVITY IMAGERY INDICATES FINE LINE ASSOCIATED WITH GUST FRONT SURGING WELL AHEAD OF STRONGEST CORES...THEREBY RENDERING EFFECTIVE INFLOW INTO REMAINING TSTMS AS ELEVATED ATOP COLD POOL. NEW CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS POSSIBLE ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...WHICH MAY BRIEFLY FLARE TO NEAR SEVERE LEVELS...GIVEN 4000-5000 J/KG MLCAPE EVIDENT IN MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER...WITH COLD POOL OUTRUNNING CONVECTION THAT GENERATED IT...ANY NEW TSTMS LIKELY TO BE UNDERCUT BY DEEP OUTFLOW...AND WEAK AMBIENT FLOW PROFILES IN LOW-MIDLEVELS...PROBABILITIES FOR WELL-ORGANIZED SEVERE EVENT TO CONTINUE APPEAR TOO LIMITED TO WARRANT ADDITIONAL WW. ..EDWARDS.. 07/08/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA... 35389563 36439563 36469438 36779332 36569330 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 8 23:35:41 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 08 Jul 2004 18:35:41 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407082336.i68NaG129149@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 082335 SWOMCD SPC MCD 082335 NEZ000-SDZ000-090130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1575 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0635 PM CDT THU JUL 08 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SWRN SD...NWRN NEB...NEB PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 592... VALID 082335Z - 090130Z CONTINUE WW ALONG AND E OF DEVELOPING LINE OF SEVERE TSTMS -- EXTENDING AT 2315Z FROM WRN-MOST CHERRY COUNTY SWWD TO BANNER COUNTY AND MOVING SEWD 30-40 KT. SEVERE THREAT IN SD APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING CONSIDERABLY WITH STRONGEST CONVECTIVE FORCING S OF NEB BORDER. SUPERCELL ENTERING WRN CHERRY COUNTY NEB APPEARS AS OF 2315Z TO BE TRANSITIONING TOWARD FORWARD-PROPAGATING HP OR BOW CONFIGURATION. AS SUCH THIS STORM MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL IN A SWATH EXTENDING SEWD THROUGH WRN/SRN CHERRY COUNTY...POSSIBLY AS FAR AS PORTIONS HOOKER/THOMAS COUNTIES AND BEYOND. THIS STORM HAS PRODUCED BRIEF TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES DIAMETER...MEASURED 46 KT GUST INVOF CDR...AND ESTIMATED GUSTS JUST ABOVE 50 KT IN SHERIDAN COUNTY...SINCE 21Z. PRIND THIS ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO EXIT PRESENT WW AREA BY APPROXIMATELY 1Z...WHILE CONTINUING TO MOVE THROUGH FAVORABLY MOIST/UNSTABLE INFLOW AIR MASS. THEREFORE ANOTHER WW MAY BE NEEDED WITHIN NEXT HOUR OR TWO FOR PORTIONS NEB E AND/OR SE OF WW 592. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE FROM BETWEEN VTN-ANW SWWD ACROSS HOOKER COUNTY THEN SEWD TO NEAR LBF-MHK LINE. AIR MASS E OF THIS BOUNDARY IS NOT AS WARM BUT CONSIDERABLY MORE MOIST THAN PRESENT INFLOW ENVIRONMENT OF MCS...WITH MLCAPES INCREASING TO WITHIN 2000-3000 J/KG RANGE. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE 50-150 J/KG CINH...BUT THIS SHOULD BE FORCED AWAY BY STRONG FORWARD-PROPAGATIONAL CONVECTIVE ASCENT. COMBINING STORM MOTION WITH LOWEST VWP GATES FROM LBF YIELDS AROUND 50 KT STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW. ..EDWARDS.. 07/08/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS... 41080067 41070394 41970398 41980336 42990254 43910167 43880078 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 9 02:06:38 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 08 Jul 2004 21:06:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407090207.i6927L109926@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 090206 SWOMCD SPC MCD 090205 OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-090400- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1576 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0905 PM CDT THU JUL 08 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN KS / TX AND OK PANHANDLES CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 090205Z - 090400Z THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE PAST 1 TO 2 HOURS ACROSS SWRN KS...AND INTO THE OK / NRN TX PANHANDLES. ALTHOUGH A THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL APPEARS TO EXIST...WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. LOW-LEVEL JET HAS BEGUN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING...WHICH MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH OBSERVED INCREASE IN CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 1 TO 2 HOURS. ALTHOUGH THIS REGION IS ON THE WRN PERIPHERY OF AXIS OF EXTREME INSTABILITY /4000 TO 5000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE/...EVENING RAOBS AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSES ALSO REVEAL A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT CAP ACROSS THIS REGION. LOW-LEVEL JET / WEAK WARM ADVECTION MAY SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OF SCATTERED TO ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS THIS REGION...WHICH SHOULD PROPAGATE SWD WITH TIME GIVEN STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET AND WEAK STEERING WINDS ALOFT. ALTHOUGH DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND RELATIVELY DRY LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS SUGGESTS A POTENTIAL FOR HAIL / WIND WITH A FEW STRONGER MULTICELL STORMS...OVERALL THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED GIVEN WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND INCREASING CAP. ..GOSS.. 07/09/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...AMA... 37580002 37159919 36599883 35879889 35379956 34930100 35870208 36550210 37080153 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 9 03:59:16 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 08 Jul 2004 22:59:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407090359.i693xu113493@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 090359 SWOMCD SPC MCD 090358 NEZ000-KSZ000-090530- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1577 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1058 PM CDT THU JUL 08 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND S CENTRAL NEB / NRN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 593...594... VALID 090358Z - 090530Z THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ORGANIZED INTO A BOW / MCS...AND SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING SEWD INTO S CENTRAL NEB / TOWARD N CENTRAL KS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...ALONG WITH CONTINUED THREAT FOR PRIMARILY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. OBJECTIVE ANALYSES CONTINUE TO INDICATE AXIS OF EXTREME INSTABILITY -- AS HIGH AS 5000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE -- FROM S SCENTRAL NEB SWD ACROSS CENTRAL KS. WITHIN THIS SAME REGION...30 KT SLY LOW-LEVEL JET IS INDICATED...AND NEW ETA RUN INDICATES AN ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION BULLSEYE OVER THIS REGION. GIVEN THESE FACTORS AND THE ORGANIZED LINE AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL WHICH HAVE DEVELOPED...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT STORMS WILL CONTINUE MOVING SEWD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS S CENTRAL NEB AND INTO N CENTRAL KS -- ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR STRONG / DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. STORMS HAVE NEARLY VACATED SERN PORTIONS WW 593 ATTM...AND SHOULD MOVE ENTIRELY INTO WW 594 WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. THIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT WW 593 MAY BE ABLE TO BE CANCELLED PRIOR TO ITS 09/07Z EXPIRATION. ..GOSS.. 07/09/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD... 41459947 41579862 41379696 39479851 39410082 40290150 40680024 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 9 05:20:34 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 09 Jul 2004 00:20:34 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407090521.i695L8104701@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 090520 SWOMCD SPC MCD 090519 KSZ000-NEZ000-090615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1578 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1219 AM CDT FRI JUL 09 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NCNTRL KS AND SERN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 090519Z - 090615Z A SEVERE TSTM WATCH WILL BE NEEDED ACROSS PARTS OF NCNTRL KS AND SERN NEB IF TSTMS DO NOT SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKENING. WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE IS STILL BEING REPORTED WITH THE LINE OF TSTMS ACROSS SCNTRL NEB. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DEPICTS INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDING SEWD INTO NCNTRL KS. GIVEN SLY H85 JET OF 30-40 KTS AND MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY...THESE TSTMS WILL PROBABLY PRODUCE WIND DAMAGE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. LINE IS MOVING SEWD AT AROUND 45 KTS...AND DESPITE WEAK H5 FLOW...TSTMS APPEAR TO HAVE GENERATED ENOUGH OF A COLD POOL TO SUSTAIN A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. IF TSTMS DO NOT WEAKEN SOON...ANOTHER WW WILL BE NEEDED DOWNSTREAM. ..RACY.. 07/09/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC... 38219814 38899943 40129826 40849706 40189615 38349697 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 9 06:03:35 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 09 Jul 2004 01:03:35 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407090604.i6964D116165@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 090603 SWOMCD SPC MCD 090603 NEZ000-090700- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1579 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0103 AM CDT FRI JUL 09 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SWRN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 593... VALID 090603Z - 090700Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 593 IS SET TO EXPIRE AT 0700 UTC AND WILL NOT BE REISSUED. LINE OF ELEVATED TSTMS HAS DEVELOPED IN WAKE OF LINEAR MCS ACROSS EXTREME SWRN NEB. THESE TSTMS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND ISOLD LARGE HAIL. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS STILL INDICATES A NARROW WEDGE OF 3000-3500 J/KG MUCAPE IN WAKE OF THE MCS. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED AND OVER A SMALL AREA AND A NEW WW WILL NOT BE NEEDED. ..RACY.. 07/09/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD... 40750185 40759992 40040043 40090179 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 9 07:47:27 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 09 Jul 2004 02:47:27 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407090748.i697m5112160@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 090747 SWOMCD SPC MCD 090746 NEZ000-KSZ000-090915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1580 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0246 AM CDT FRI JUL 09 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NEB AND CNTRL/NERN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 594...595... VALID 090746Z - 090915Z WELL ORGANIZED LINEAR MCS CONTINUES TO FORWARD PROPAGATE SEWD ACROSS SERN NEB AND NCNTRL KS AT 40-45 KTS. NRN EDGE OF THE SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AS IT APPROACHES THE MO RVR NEAR OMAHA...THOUGH WARM ADVECTION WING IS DEVELOPING EWD INTO SWRN IA. PRIND NRN EDGE OF THE LINE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WEAKENING AS THE ACTIVITY ENCOUNTERS SLIGHTLY LESS INSTABILITY THAN WHAT WAS AVAILABLE FARTHER WEST. MEANWHILE...STRONGEST DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES ALONG SRN EDGE OF GUST FRONT IN NCNTRL KS. LAMONT AND HILLSBORO PROFILERS SHOW A STRONG LLJ OF 40-45 KTS AND THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUING FEEDING THE TSTMS WITH PARCELS CONTAINING MUCAPES OF 4000 J/KG. DESPITE WEAK H5 FLOW...THIS MCS HAS HAD A VERY WELL DEVELOPED COLD POOL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN A THREAT FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AS IT MOVES SEWD INTO NERN/CNTRL KS. IF THE TSTMS HOLD TOGETHER...EXTRAPOLATION HAS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE STORMS ROUGHLY TOPEKA-MANHATTAN AREAS 8-900 UTC...AND PERHAPS TOPEKA AND EMPORIA /I-35 TURNPIKE CORRIDOR/ BY 900-930 UTC. IN WAKE OF THIS MCS...MORE ELEVATED TSTMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING PERIODICALLY AND THOSE MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND ISOLD HAIL. LASTLY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 594 MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY AS TSTMS HAVE ESSENTIALLY MOVED WELL INTO WATCH 595. ..RACY.. 07/09/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD... 40030031 40009858 40659755 41509754 41459640 40879596 40229561 39039589 38119650 38059855 38169940 39229991 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 9 07:50:19 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 09 Jul 2004 02:50:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407090751.i697p4112987@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 090750 SWOMCD SPC MCD 090749 COR NEZ000-KSZ000-090915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1580 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0249 AM CDT FRI JUL 09 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NEB AND CNTRL/NERN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 594...595... VALID 090749Z - 090915Z CORRECTED FOR REFERENCED CITIES IN THIRD PARAGRAPH WELL ORGANIZED LINEAR MCS CONTINUES TO FORWARD PROPAGATE SEWD ACROSS SERN NEB AND NCNTRL KS AT 40-45 KTS. NRN EDGE OF THE SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AS IT APPROACHES THE MO RVR NEAR OMAHA...THOUGH WARM ADVECTION WING IS DEVELOPING EWD INTO SWRN IA. PRIND NRN EDGE OF THE LINE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WEAKENING AS THE ACTIVITY ENCOUNTERS SLIGHTLY LESS INSTABILITY THAN WHAT WAS AVAILABLE FARTHER WEST. MEANWHILE...STRONGEST DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES ALONG SRN EDGE OF GUST FRONT IN NCNTRL KS. LAMONT AND HILLSBORO PROFILERS SHOW A STRONG LLJ OF 40-45 KTS AND THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUING FEEDING THE TSTMS WITH PARCELS CONTAINING MUCAPES OF 4000 J/KG. DESPITE WEAK H5 FLOW...THIS MCS HAS HAD A VERY WELL DEVELOPED COLD POOL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN A THREAT FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AS IT MOVES SEWD INTO NERN/CNTRL KS. IF THE TSTMS HOLD TOGETHER...EXTRAPOLATION HAS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE STORMS ROUGHLY THE MANHATTAN AREA 8-900 UTC...AND PERHAPS TOPEKA AND EMPORIA /I-35 TURNPIKE CORRIDOR/ BY 900-930 UTC. IN WAKE OF THIS MCS...MORE ELEVATED TSTMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING PERIODICALLY AND THOSE MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND ISOLD HAIL. LASTLY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 594 MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY AS TSTMS HAVE ESSENTIALLY MOVED WELL INTO WATCH 595. ..RACY.. 07/09/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD... 40030031 40009858 40659755 41509754 41459640 40879596 40229561 39039589 38119650 38059855 38169940 39229991 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 9 15:11:29 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 09 Jul 2004 10:11:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407091512.i69FC5105906@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 091511 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091510 OKZ000-091715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1581 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1010 AM CDT FRI JUL 09 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN THROUGH CNTRL OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 091510Z - 091715Z THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS THEY DEVELOP SWD THROUGH NRN AND INTO CNTRL OK THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW AND WILL LIKELY BE UPGRADED TO A SLIGHT RISK IN THE 1630Z OUTLOOK. LATE THIS MORNING A CLUSTER OF STORMS NEAR PONCA CITY CONTINUES MOVING SWD AT AROUND 20 KT. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE WEAK AND SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELL STORMS. HOWEVER...LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGEST SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE HEATING WILL OCCUR DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS CNTRL OK. MORNING RAOB DATA FROM NORMAN SHOWED STEEP LAPSE RATES AND RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...SUGGESTING THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE WITH LITTLE CAP ONCE SURFACE TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S. MLCAPE FROM 3500 TO 4000 J/KG IS EXPECTED BY EARLY AFTERNOON. VWP DATA STILL SHOW A 30 KT SLY LOW LEVEL JET...BUT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...20 KT SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH 15 TO 20 KT NLY MID LEVEL FLOW TO THE W OF AN MCV CENTERED OVER EXTREME SW MO SHOULD PROVIDE FAVORABLE KINEMATIC PROFILES FOR STORMS TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING SWD AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. ..DIAL.. 07/09/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN... 36669495 36439687 36569812 35989853 35459814 35249665 35869490 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 9 19:03:30 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 09 Jul 2004 14:03:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407091904.i69J41107597@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 091903 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091902 NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-092100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1582 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0202 PM CDT FRI JUL 09 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NE CO...SE WY AND WRN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 091902Z - 092100Z STORMS DEVELOPING OVER NRN CO INTO SE WY ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS THEY MOVE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...BUT AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN CO INTO SE WY. DESTABILIZATION IS OCCURRING DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS ACTIVITY OVER SE WY...WRN NEB AND NE CO. STRONG SURFACE HEATING...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. AN UPPER RIDGE HAS BEEN BUILDING OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS TODAY WITH RESULTING WEAK MID-UPPER FLOW AND VERTICAL SHEAR. DESPITE THE WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR...MID LEVEL FLOW OF 20-25 KT REMAINS SUFFICIENT FOR STORMS TO SPREAD SLOWLY EWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SERN WY INTO WRN NEB. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS THEY DEVELOP EWD INTO THE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS. INVERTED-V BOUNDARY LAYERS AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT THREAT FOR ISOLATED MICROBURSTS. SOME HAIL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. ..DIAL.. 07/09/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS... 39710412 40040510 42240531 42560306 40310326 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 9 19:15:50 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 09 Jul 2004 14:15:50 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407091916.i69JGM113149@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 091915 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091915 INZ000-ILZ000-092115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1583 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0215 PM CDT FRI JUL 09 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NERN IL AND NRN IND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 091915Z - 092115Z ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH CONVECTION INTENSIFYING ALONG GUST FRONT OVER NERN IL AS IT MOVES INTO NWRN IND. OVERALL THREAT APPEARS TO BE MARGINAL AND THUS A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. LATEST VWP DATA FROM CHICAGO AND IR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A MID LEVEL SPEED MAX EXISTS OVER NRN IL TO THE SOUTH OF AN MCV OVER SRN WI. RECENT GOES PW DATA INDICATES LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS INCREASING NORTH ABOVE SLOWLY ADVANCING WARM FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS NRN IND AND FAR NERN IL. SOMEWHAT ELEVATED NATURE OF CONVECTION NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY OVER THE CHI METRO AREA SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE WIND THREAT. HOWEVER...NEW DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE ALONG THE GUST FRONT/WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTERSECTION TO THE SOUTH OF CHICAGO INTO FAR NWRN IND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS CONVECTION WILL BE ABLE TO TAP MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH MLCAPES FROM 2000-2500 J/KG. DESPITE MARGINAL LOW LEVEL INFLOW IN THIS AREA...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY... FOCUSED CONVERGENCE ALONG GUST FRONT AND MODEST MID LEVEL FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND/HAIL THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS THROUGH NRN IND. ..CROSBIE.. 07/09/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT... 40618770 41268861 41648827 41818745 41678614 41088512 40348542 40148602 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 9 21:27:21 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 09 Jul 2004 16:27:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407092127.i69LRq132272@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 092127 SWOMCD SPC MCD 092126 ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-092300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1584 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0426 PM CDT FRI JUL 09 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN IA...WCENTRAL AND NWRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 092126Z - 092300Z ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER FAR SERN IA ARE LIKELY TO INTENSIFY AS THEY MOVE ESEWD INTO NWRN/WCENTRAL IL. THIS AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING TRENDS AND POSSIBLE WW. LIFT FROM MID LEVEL VORT MAX OVER CENTRAL IA HAS AIDED IN ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER SERN IA IN THE LAST HOUR. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT INHIBITION WAS WEAK OVER NWRN/WCENTRAL IL ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM MERCER CO SEWD INTO MCCLEAN COUNTY. AS THE ELEVATED CONVECTION BECOMES ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH MLCAPES FROM 1500-2500 J/KG IT IS ANTICIPATED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY. MODERATE 30 KT MID LEVEL ABOVE BACKED LOW LEVEL SELY WINDS WILL AID IN SUFFICIENT ROTATION FOR THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL. RELATIVELY HIGH WBZ HEIGHTS FROM 12-13 KFT WILL LIMIT THE THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL. ADDITIONALLY..A WEAK TORNADO MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL / 0-1 KM SHEAR FROM 10-15 KTS / WITH ANY STORMS THAT MOVE ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY ..CROSBIE.. 07/09/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN... 40229124 40259167 41559123 41068878 40368896 39828910 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 9 23:50:39 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 09 Jul 2004 18:50:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407092351.i69NpA112084@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 092350 SWOMCD SPC MCD 092349 NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-100145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1585 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0649 PM CDT FRI JUL 09 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN CO / SERN MT / WRN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 092349Z - 100145Z SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF E CENTRAL AND NERN CO...WHILE ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE MOVING EWD OUT OF SERN WY INTO THE NEB PANHANDLE. DAMAGING WIND / HAIL THREAT MAY INCREASE SOMEWHAT OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS...POSSIBLY REQUIRING WW ISSUANCE. LATEST DATA INDICATES AN INSTABILITY GRADIENT ACROSS THIS REGION...ALONG WRN FRINGES OF AXIS OF 2000 TO 2500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE. LARGE-SCALE SHORT-WAVE RIDGING ALOFT EXISTS ACROSS THIS REGION WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION TO SOME DEGREE. HOWEVER...LATEST PLT /PLATTEVILLE CO/ PROFILER INDICATES THAT MID-LEVEL FLOW HAS INCREASED TO 35 TO 40 KT -- DESPITE MODEL FORECASTS FOR WEAK /20 KT/ MID-LEVEL FLOW THOUGH 10/06Z. WITH STORM MOVING OUT OF TELLER AND INTO EL PASO COUNTY CO SHOWING SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS -- AND THUS CONFIRMING AN INCREASE IN DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AS PER THE PLT PROFILER - IT APPEARS THAT AN INCREASE IN STORM ORGANIZATION / INTENSITY WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS -- PARTICULARLY AS LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES AND STORMS MOVE EWD INTO INCREASINGLY MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS. ALTHOUGH STORMS SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT ISOLATED -- AGAIN DUE TO LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE...WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS REGION FOR POSSIBLE WW TO COVER THE ISOLATED HAIL / WIND THREAT WHICH APPEARS TO BE EVOLVING. ..GOSS.. 07/09/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS... 42980135 42180120 40050249 38580450 39040520 40860526 42030567 43150314 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 10 00:00:26 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 09 Jul 2004 19:00:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407100000.i6A00v114382@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 100000 SWOMCD SPC MCD 092359 COR NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-100145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1585 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0659 PM CDT FRI JUL 09 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN CO / SERN WY / WRN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 092359Z - 100145Z CORRECTED TO CHANGE HEADER TO READ SERN WY INSTEAD OF SERN MT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF E CENTRAL AND NERN CO...WHILE ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE MOVING EWD OUT OF SERN WY INTO THE NEB PANHANDLE. DAMAGING WIND / HAIL THREAT MAY INCREASE SOMEWHAT OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS...POSSIBLY REQUIRING WW ISSUANCE. LATEST DATA INDICATES AN INSTABILITY GRADIENT ACROSS THIS REGION...ALONG WRN FRINGES OF AXIS OF 2000 TO 2500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE. LARGE-SCALE SHORT-WAVE RIDGING ALOFT EXISTS ACROSS THIS REGION WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION TO SOME DEGREE. HOWEVER...LATEST PLT /PLATTEVILLE CO/ PROFILER INDICATES THAT MID-LEVEL FLOW HAS INCREASED TO 35 TO 40 KT -- DESPITE MODEL FORECASTS FOR WEAK /20 KT/ MID-LEVEL FLOW THOUGH 10/06Z. WITH STORM MOVING OUT OF TELLER AND INTO EL PASO COUNTY CO SHOWING SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS -- AND THUS CONFIRMING AN INCREASE IN DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AS PER THE PLT PROFILER - IT APPEARS THAT AN INCREASE IN STORM ORGANIZATION / INTENSITY WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS -- PARTICULARLY AS LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES AND STORMS MOVE EWD INTO INCREASINGLY MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS. ALTHOUGH STORMS SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT ISOLATED -- AGAIN DUE TO LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE...WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS REGION FOR POSSIBLE WW TO COVER THE ISOLATED HAIL / WIND THREAT WHICH APPEARS TO BE EVOLVING. ..GOSS.. 07/09/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS... 42980135 42180120 40050249 38580450 39040520 40860526 42030567 43150314 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 10 00:17:18 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 09 Jul 2004 19:17:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407100017.i6A0Hm119251@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 100017 SWOMCD SPC MCD 100016 INZ000-ILZ000-100245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1586 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0716 PM CDT FRI JUL 09 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NRN/CENTRAL IL ESEWD INTO CENTRAL IND CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 100016Z - 100245Z HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD CONTINUE TO FOCUS ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE PEORIA ESEWD TO NEAR TERRA HAUTE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ADDITIONALLY AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER WCENTRAL/CENTRAL IL THROUGH 03Z. MID LEVEL VORT CENTER OVER ERN IA WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EWD AND AID IN AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT OVER WCENTRAL/CENTRAL IL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS GIVEN SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY SOUTH OF SLOWLY MOVING OUTFLOW/FRONTAL BOUNDARY. OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER CONVECTION OVER NERN IL HAS COLLIDED RECENTLY FROM OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL IND AIDING IN STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO THE NW OF THE INDIANAPOLIS AREA. SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND WEAK WAA ABOVE REMNANT COLD POOL SHOULD AID IN A FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS FROM NEAR LAF ESEWD TO NEAR MIE. ADDITIONAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COLLISIONS SHOULD OCCUR OVER FAR WCENTRAL IND/ECENTRAL IL IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS AND MAY AID IN BRIEF ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL THREATS. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL SLOW STORM MOTIONS PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY OVER ECENTRAL IL/WCENTRAL IND SHOULD AID IN CELL TRAINING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES AS THE PRIMARY THREAT. ..CROSBIE.. 07/10/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN... 39809029 39979059 40669070 40919068 41258965 41148887 40578706 40348590 39318629 39258788 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 10 00:29:26 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 09 Jul 2004 19:29:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407100029.i6A0Tw122642@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 100029 SWOMCD SPC MCD 100029 SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-100230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1587 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0729 PM CDT FRI JUL 09 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN ND / NWRN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 100029Z - 100230Z STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS W CENTRAL ND...AND MAY DEVELOP ACROSS / SPREAD NEWD INTO NWRN SD IN THE NEXT 1 TO 3 HOURS. DEGREE OF SHEAR / INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT...AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS REGION FOR POSSIBLE WW. SLY LOW-LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...WITH STRONGEST WARM ADVECTION FORECAST ACROSS NWRN SD AND WRN ND NORTH OF WARM FRONT NOW ACROSS W CENTRAL SD. PERSISTENT BAND OF CUMULUS MOVING ACROSS FAR ERN MT / WRN ND HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST 1 TO 2 HOURS...WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NOW INDICATED BY RADAR / LIGHTNING DATA. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP / INCREASE ACROSS THIS REGION...AND MAY ALSO MOVE INTO OR DEVELOP ACROSS NWRN SD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS WARM ADVECTION INCREASES GIVEN MOIST / MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THIS AREA. INCREASING SLY LOW-LEVEL JET COMBINED WITH 25 TO 35 KT WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SEVERE STORMS / SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL / DAMAGING WINDS...BUT OVERALL THREAT MAY REMAIN ISOLATED GIVEN LARGE-SCALE RIDGING ACROSS THIS REGION. ..GOSS.. 07/10/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ... 48720185 47600089 46840098 45340057 44160057 44480334 45140407 46470406 47220364 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 10 13:57:20 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 10 Jul 2004 08:57:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407101358.i6ADw5112333@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 101357 SWOMCD SPC MCD 101356 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-101530- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1588 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0856 AM CDT SAT JUL 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SERN ND THROUGH W CNTRL MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 101356Z - 101530Z THREAT FOR MAINLY HAIL MAY PERSIST FOR ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS FROM SE ND INTO W CNTRL MN. SEVERE THREAT IS TOO ISOLATED FOR A WW AT THIS TIME. UNLESS STORMS BEGIN TO SHOW SIGNS OF INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. EARLY THIS MORNING STORMS WERE DEVELOPING FROM SERN ND INTO W CNTRL MN. STORMS APPEAR TO BE DEVELOPING WITHIN A ZONE OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...AND AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE INSTABILITY. THE 12Z ABERDEEN RAOB SHOWED 1800 J/KG OF MUCAPE ABOVE A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER...SUGGESTING STORMS ARE ELEVATED. GIVEN WIDESPREAD CLOUDS OBSERVED ON THE MORNING VISIBLE IMAGERY ACROSS MN AND SERN ND...SURFACE BASED ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THOUGH CLOUD LAYER SHEAR APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION...ELEVATED NATURE OF THE STORMS SUGGESTS HAIL SHOULD REMAIN THE PRIMARY SHORT TERM THREAT. ..DIAL.. 07/10/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR... 44989611 46059700 47479728 47669547 45489524 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 10 17:03:00 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 10 Jul 2004 12:03:00 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407101703.i6AH3T130588@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 101702 SWOMCD SPC MCD 101702 SDZ000-101900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1589 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1202 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CNTRL SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 101702Z - 101900Z STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS THEY DEVELOP EAST THROUGH WRN AND TOWARD CNTRL SD. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. SOME THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL EXIST AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS EAST TOWARD CNTRL/ERN SD LATER THIS AFTERNOON. PARTS OF WRN AND W CNTRL SD ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A BAND OF MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM WRN SD SWWD THROUGH SE WY. THIS CLOUD FIELD IS ASSOCIATED WITH A ZONE OF MID LEVEL ASCENT THAT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. CLEAR SKIES PERSIST DOWNSTREAM ACROSS CNTRL SD AND THIS WILL PROMOTE FURTHER DESTABILIZATION. A QUASISTATIONARY BOUNDARY EXISTS ACROSS CNTRL SD FROM JUST W OF MOBRIDGE SEWD TO W OF YANKTON. THE BOUNDARY LAYER W OF THIS BOUNDARY IS DRIER AND DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED INTO THE UPPER 50S. HOWEVER...THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS SUFFICIENT FOR MODERATE INSTABILITY BY MID AFTERNOON GIVEN PRESENCE OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING. STORMS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING WITHIN ZONE OF MID LEVEL ASCENT ACROSS WRN SD SHOULD INTENSIFY AS THEY DEVELOP EAST AND THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. HOWEVER...SOME THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY ALSO EXIST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS STORMS CROSS THE BOUNDARY IN ERN SD WHERE LOWER LCL HEIGHTS...STRONGER INSTABILITY AND BETTER LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR SHOULD BE PRESENT. ..DIAL.. 07/10/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...UNR... 43320335 45700180 45710003 44749972 43080176 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 10 17:22:24 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 10 Jul 2004 12:22:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407101722.i6AHMr103370@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 101722 SWOMCD SPC MCD 101721 VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-101915- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1590 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1221 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KY...MUCH OF WV AND WRN/SRN VA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 101721Z - 101915Z CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER NERN WV/FAR WRN VA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD AT AROUND 20 KTS. AS NEW DEVELOPMENT OCCURS WITH AND AHEAD OF THIS LINE AND IT/S OUTFLOW...THERE MAY BE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF WRN VA WITHIN THE NEXT 2 HOURS. THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE LIMITED ENOUGH THAT A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. IN ADDITION TO THE ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT...CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED TO TRAIN ALONG NW-SE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM WCENTRAL VA INTO SCENTRAL VA. AS A CLUSTER OF STORMS MOVE SEWD ACROSS FAR NERN WV/WRN VA OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS...NUMEROUS MERGERS ARE ANTICIPATED TO ENHANCE THE COLD POOL THAT HAS DEVELOPED WITH THIS CLUSTER OVER NERN WV. AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM OVER WRN/SRN VA WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE WITH MUCAPES INCREASING TO AROUND 2500 J/KG. SUBTLE MID LEVEL WIND MAX OF 30 KTS OBSERVED BY RECENT JACKSON VWP DATA MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW FOR A FORWARD PROPAGATING WEAKLY ORGANIZED LINE OF STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. FARTHER SW...OTHER STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER ERN KY INTO SRN WV/FAR SWRN VA AND MAY POSE AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS WELL...GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL WIND MAX AND INSTABILITY. WITH VERY HIGH PW VALUES LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES TO 2 IN/HR WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING/TRAINING IN THE WAA ZONE ALONG STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM WCENTRAL INTO SCENTRAL VA AND ON THE SW PERIPHERY OF THE COLD POOL OVER CENTRAL WV. ..CROSBIE.. 07/10/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN... 36588008 37048224 37598311 38418315 38718272 38998174 38848000 37967882 37257835 36847805 36707828 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 10 18:09:51 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 10 Jul 2004 13:09:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407101810.i6AIAM116615@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 101809 SWOMCD SPC MCD 101809 NCZ000-SCZ000-101945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1591 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0109 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NC AND ERN SC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 101809Z - 101945Z ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH CONVECTION AS IT CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY OVER ERN SC/SERN NC. OVERALL MARGINAL THREAT AND LACK OF BETTER ORGANIZATION SHOULD PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WATCH. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY ALONG E-W ORIENTED BOUNDARY OVER SERN NC AND ALONG A N-S BOUNDARY OVER ERN SC. MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH MLCAPES FROMM 2000-2500 J/KG EXISTS AHEAD OF THESE BOUNDARIES WHERE INCIPIENT STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE LAST HOUR. WEAK NWLY FLOW SHOULD CARRY MOST OF THE CONVECTION SEWD TOWARDS THE COAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SUFFICIENTLY DRY AIR ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 9 DEG C FROM THE SFC-2 KM MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. AS CONVECTION MERGES WITH THE SEA BREEZE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS MAY AID IN RAPID UPDRAFT STRENGTHENING AND A BRIEF INCREASE IN THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT. OVERALL THREAT SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY UNORGANIZED AND PULSE-TYPE IN NATURE THAT A WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ..CROSBIE.. 07/10/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE... 32748007 33338112 33828104 34528032 35257949 35217791 35007612 33627867 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 10 18:54:03 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 10 Jul 2004 13:54:03 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407101854.i6AIsV132519@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 101853 SWOMCD SPC MCD 101853 OHZ000-WVZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-102200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1592 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0153 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL IL EWD INTO SRN OH AND FAR NRN KY CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 101853Z - 102200Z ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS AS THEY MOVE EWD AROUND 20 KTS ACROSS FAR NRN KY/SRN OH AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/ERN IND. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE MARGINAL NATURE OF THE THREAT. FARTHER WEST ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NEAR PIA ESEWD TO NEAR HUF...CONVECTION WILL LIKELY TRAIN LEADING TO THE MAIN RISK BEING HEAVY RAINFALL WITH RATES FROM 1-2 IN/HR. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN AREAL EXTENT AND STRENGTH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY WHERE STRONGER /20-25 KT/ OF LOW TO MID LEVEL UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW EXISTS PER REGIONAL VWP DATA. MODERATE INSTABILITY WAS IN PLACE OVER THIS AREA WITH MLCAPES FROM 1500-2500 J/KG. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WEAK WIND FIELDS...ONLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED. FARTHER WEST...WEAKER MID LEVEL FLOW /ON THE ORDER OF 10-15 KTS/ ALONG WITH BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL AID IN VERY SLOW STORM MOTIONS WITH CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL IL INTO WCENTRAL IND. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE ENTIRE EXTENT OF THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY WHERE CONVERGENCE AND CELL TRAINING WILL BE MAXIMIZED. HOWEVER...THE GREATEST THREAT FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES WILL EXIST OVER CENTRAL IL INTO WCENTRAL IND. THIS IS WHERE A COMBINATION OF FOCUSED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WITH MID 70S DEWPTS /PW VALUES AROUND 1.8 IN./ AND NEARLY STATIONARY STORM MOTIONS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AREAS OF OVER 2 IN/HR RAINFALL RATES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ..CROSBIE.. 07/10/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...ILX...LSX... 39218901 39689056 40249039 40338881 40168590 39668269 39328156 38598189 38378501 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 10 19:19:55 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 10 Jul 2004 14:19:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407101920.i6AJKM107104@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 101919 SWOMCD SPC MCD 101919 NDZ000-102145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1593 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0219 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL THROUGH ERN ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 101919Z - 102145Z PARTS OF CNTRL ND ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION WITHIN THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. ONCE STORMS DEVELOP...THEY WILL LIKELY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREAT. HOWEVER...SOME THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY ALSO EXIST. A WW MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS AREA WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS OR ONCE IT BECOMES MORE CLEAR WHEN STORMS MIGHT DEVELOP. EARLY THIS AFTERNOON A QUASISTATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM SW ND SEWD THROUGH CNTRL AND SERN SD. RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE EXISTS N AND E OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH AN AXIS OF NEAR 70 DEWPOINTS EXTENDING THROUGH CNTRL AND ERN ND. HOWEVER...THE 18Z RAOB FROM BISMARK SHOWS THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO BE RATHER SHALLOW ACROSS CNTRL ND AND SUGGESTS DEWPOINTS MIGHT MIX INTO THE LOWER 60S AS SURFACE HEATING CONTINUES. THE DEEPER MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER EXISTS FARTHER EAST INTO THE ERN DAKOTAS...AND SELY LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES FROM THIS AREA MIGHT HELP TO OFFSET THE EFFECT OF MIXING SOMEWHAT ACROSS CNTRL ND. THE NRN EXTENTION OF A ZONE OF MID LEVEL ASCENT APPEARS TO BE SPREADING INTO CNTRL SD. HOWEVER...THE BISMARK 18Z RAOB SHOWS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY REMAIN CAPPED TO DEEP CONVECTION UNTIL SURFACE TEMPERATURES CLIMB THROUGH THE UPPER 80S. ONCE STORMS DEVELOP...THEY SHOULD INTENSIFY AS THEY SPREAD EAST TOWARD ERN ND WHERE RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...LOWER LCLS AND STRONGER INSTABILITY WILL EXIST. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER THIS AREA WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS CNTRL ND WHERE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS BACKED TO ELY DUE IN PART TO INFLUENCE OF THERMAL LOW OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. THUS THE TORNADO THREAT WILL DEPEND IN PART ON THE ABILITY TO MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LOW LCLS IN THIS AREA AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. ..DIAL.. 07/10/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... 46089888 46380166 47450163 47789990 47909791 46549749 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 10 19:21:31 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 10 Jul 2004 14:21:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407101921.i6AJLx107773@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 101921 SWOMCD SPC MCD 101920 FLZ000-102115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1594 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0220 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SOUTH FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 101920Z - 102115Z ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS AS CONVECTIVE LINE/S MOVE WWD ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH FL DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OVERALL THREAT APPEARS TO BE MARGINAL AND THUS A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. CONVECTION HAS ORGANIZED ALONG EAST COAST SEE BREEZE FRONT OVER THE LAST HOUR OVER SOUTH FL...AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE INTO CENTRAL FL. STRENGTHENING NELY UPPER LEVEL WINDS NOTED ON WV SAT IMAGERY DOWNWIND OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER THE GULF STREAM WILL AID IN ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL STORM VENTING. ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES FROM 2000-2500 J/KG...CONVECTIVE LINE IS FORECAST TO BE MAINTAINED IF NOT STRENGTHEN SOME OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL DRYING MAY SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COLD POOL. ALONG WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREATS WITH THE LINE/S AS THEY MOVE EWD ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH FL. ..CROSBIE.. 07/10/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW... 25638121 26298189 26858213 27258217 27908135 27958053 27098018 25538017 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 10 19:24:55 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 10 Jul 2004 14:24:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407101925.i6AJPY108732@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 101919 SWOMCD SPC MCD 101919 NDZ000-102145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1593 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0219 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL THROUGH ERN ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 101919Z - 102145Z PARTS OF CNTRL ND ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION WITHIN THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. ONCE STORMS DEVELOP...THEY WILL LIKELY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREAT. HOWEVER...SOME THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY ALSO EXIST. A WW MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS AREA WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS OR ONCE IT BECOMES MORE CLEAR WHEN STORMS MIGHT DEVELOP. EARLY THIS AFTERNOON A QUASISTATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM SW ND SEWD THROUGH CNTRL AND SERN SD. RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE EXISTS N AND E OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH AN AXIS OF NEAR 70 DEWPOINTS EXTENDING THROUGH CNTRL AND ERN ND. HOWEVER...THE 18Z RAOB FROM BISMARK SHOWS THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO BE RATHER SHALLOW ACROSS CNTRL ND AND SUGGESTS DEWPOINTS MIGHT MIX INTO THE LOWER 60S AS SURFACE HEATING CONTINUES. THE DEEPER MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER EXISTS FARTHER EAST INTO THE ERN DAKOTAS...AND SELY LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES FROM THIS AREA MIGHT HELP TO OFFSET THE EFFECT OF MIXING SOMEWHAT ACROSS CNTRL ND. THE NRN EXTENTION OF A ZONE OF MID LEVEL ASCENT APPEARS TO BE SPREADING INTO CNTRL SD. HOWEVER...THE BISMARK 18Z RAOB SHOWS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY REMAIN CAPPED TO DEEP CONVECTION UNTIL SURFACE TEMPERATURES CLIMB THROUGH THE UPPER 80S. ONCE STORMS DEVELOP...THEY SHOULD INTENSIFY AS THEY SPREAD EAST TOWARD ERN ND WHERE RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...LOWER LCLS AND STRONGER INSTABILITY WILL EXIST. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER THIS AREA WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS CNTRL ND WHERE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS BACKED TO ELY DUE IN PART TO INFLUENCE OF THERMAL LOW OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. THUS THE TORNADO THREAT WILL DEPEND IN PART ON THE ABILITY TO MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LOW LCLS IN THIS AREA AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. ..DIAL.. 07/10/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... 46089888 46380166 47450163 47789990 47909791 46549749  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 10 19:26:14 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 10 Jul 2004 14:26:14 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407101926.i6AJQf109339@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 101921 SWOMCD SPC MCD 101920 FLZ000-102115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1594 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0220 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SOUTH FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 101920Z - 102115Z ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS AS CONVECTIVE LINE/S MOVE WWD ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH FL DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OVERALL THREAT APPEARS TO BE MARGINAL AND THUS A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. CONVECTION HAS ORGANIZED ALONG EAST COAST SEE BREEZE FRONT OVER THE LAST HOUR OVER SOUTH FL...AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE INTO CENTRAL FL. STRENGTHENING NELY UPPER LEVEL WINDS NOTED ON WV SAT IMAGERY DOWNWIND OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER THE GULF STREAM WILL AID IN ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL STORM VENTING. ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES FROM 2000-2500 J/KG...CONVECTIVE LINE IS FORECAST TO BE MAINTAINED IF NOT STRENGTHEN SOME OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL DRYING MAY SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COLD POOL. ALONG WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREATS WITH THE LINE/S AS THEY MOVE EWD ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH FL. ..CROSBIE.. 07/10/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW... 25638121 26298189 26858213 27258217 27908135 27958053 27098018 25538017  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 10 19:34:46 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 10 Jul 2004 14:34:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407101935.i6AJZE111177@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 101934 SWOMCD SPC MCD 101934 MTZ000-WYZ000-IDZ000-102100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1595 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0234 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 101934Z - 102100Z THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL POSSIBLE. MONITORING AREA FOR POSSIBLE WW. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE PAST HOUR ACROSS WRN MT IN AREA OF INCREASING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT...AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC NW. DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER UP TO 600 MB AND UNDIRECTIONAL SWLY FLOW...WITH ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS INCREASING WITH HEIGHT...WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW SEVERE WIND GUSTS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO 30-40 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL AID IN STORM ORGANIZATION. THIS STRONGER SHEAR ALONG WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY ALSO SUPPORT SEVERE HAIL. IF IT APPEARS THAT WIDESPREAD STORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA...WW WOULD LIKELY BE WARRANTED. ..IMY.. 07/10/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW...TFX...MSO... 46100941 45010999 44661357 45891465 48741379 49171217 48820905 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 10 20:07:36 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 10 Jul 2004 15:07:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407102008.i6AK86119865@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 102007 SWOMCD SPC MCD 102007 MNZ000-NDZ000-102200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1596 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0307 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NW MN THROUGH NERN ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 102007Z - 102200Z PORTIONS OF NERN ND THROUGH NW MN ARE BEING MONITORED FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. IF IT BECOME EVIDENT THAT ADDITIONAL SURFACE BASED STORMS CAN INITIATE IN THIS AREA...A WW MAY BE NEEDED. THIS AFTERNOON A LINE OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS FROM SW ONTARIO SWWD INTO EXTREME NW MN. THESE STORMS APPEAR TO HAVE DEVELOPED WHERE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER CONVECTION MERGED WITH A BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SW ONTARIO SWWD THROUGH NRN ND. THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE S OF THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS PARTS OF NW MN THROUGH NERN ND. PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS AND WEAKER CONVERGENCE ALONG THE MN/ND PORTION OF THE BOUNDARY RAISES UNCERTAINTY REGARDING FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DOES SHOW CAP WEAKENING IN VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY AND ASCENT ACCOMPANYING UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SPREADING EAST. SHEAR PROFILES FAVOR SUPERCELLS WITH ANY SURFACE BASED STORMS THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP. ..DIAL.. 07/10/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF... 48989508 48629476 47909656 47739842 48469883 48729768 48959636 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 10 20:36:12 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 10 Jul 2004 15:36:12 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407102036.i6AKae127136@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 102036 SWOMCD SPC MCD 102035 MNZ000-SDZ000-102200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1597 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0335 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 102035Z - 102200Z CONVECTION INTENSIFYING OVER WRN/CENTRAL SD SHOULD CONTINUE TO POSE A SEVERE THREAT AS IT MOVES EAST OF WW 596. THUS A NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/ERN SD BY 22Z. RAPIDLY DEVELOPING CONVECTION INCLUDING A FEW INCIPIENT SUPERCELLS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ENEWD AROUND 20 KTS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LEAD CELL OVER STANLEY COUNTY WILL MOVE OUT OF WW 596 BY AROUND 23Z. MODERATE TO HIGH INSTABILITY DOWNSTREAM OF WW 596 OVER THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL/ERN SD WITH MLCAPES AROUND 3000 J/KG AND MINIMAL INHIBITION SHOULD SUPPORT A CONTINUED SEVERE THREAT INTO THIS AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ..CROSBIE.. 07/10/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...UNR... 43099973 44480002 45839969 45919726 45829680 44449677 43129724 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 10 20:40:38 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 10 Jul 2004 15:40:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407102041.i6AKf5128162@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 102040 SWOMCD SPC MCD 102039 NDZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-102245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1598 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0339 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MT...SWRN ND AND NWRN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 102039Z - 102245Z SE MT THROUGH SW ND AND NW SD ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION. SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS ONCE STORMS DEVELOP. THIS AFTERNOON A SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS FROM NE ND SWWD INTO SW ND AND SE MT. ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE S OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWING MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO INCREASE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NE WY AND SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT OVER SERN MT AS WELL. AN INCREASE IN CUMULUS HAS ALSO BEEN OBSERVED ALONG THE BOUNDARY ACROSS SWRN ND. SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH ND MIGHT DELAY THE ONSET OF DEEPER CONVECTION OVER SOME OF THE AREA...BUT CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY DOES SHOW A STORM DEVELOPING ON THE BOUNDARY OVER CNTRL W CNTRL ND. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP AS THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE. SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS STRUCTURES AS STORMS DEVELOP. ..DIAL.. 07/10/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW... 46440225 45130396 45190532 46240602 46980414 47150180 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 10 20:42:08 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 10 Jul 2004 15:42:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407102042.i6AKgZ128814@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 102036 SWOMCD SPC MCD 102035 MNZ000-SDZ000-102200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1597 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0335 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 102035Z - 102200Z CONVECTION INTENSIFYING OVER WRN/CENTRAL SD SHOULD CONTINUE TO POSE A SEVERE THREAT AS IT MOVES EAST OF WW 596. THUS A NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/ERN SD BY 22Z. RAPIDLY DEVELOPING CONVECTION INCLUDING A FEW INCIPIENT SUPERCELLS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ENEWD AROUND 20 KTS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LEAD CELL OVER STANLEY COUNTY WILL MOVE OUT OF WW 596 BY AROUND 23Z. MODERATE TO HIGH INSTABILITY DOWNSTREAM OF WW 596 OVER THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL/ERN SD WITH MLCAPES AROUND 3000 J/KG AND MINIMAL INHIBITION SHOULD SUPPORT A CONTINUED SEVERE THREAT INTO THIS AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ..CROSBIE.. 07/10/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...UNR... 43099973 44480002 45839969 45919726 45829680 44449677 43129724  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 10 20:44:48 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 10 Jul 2004 15:44:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407102045.i6AKjK129283@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 102040 SWOMCD SPC MCD 102039 NDZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-102245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1598 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0339 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MT...SWRN ND AND NWRN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 102039Z - 102245Z SE MT THROUGH SW ND AND NW SD ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION. SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS ONCE STORMS DEVELOP. THIS AFTERNOON A SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS FROM NE ND SWWD INTO SW ND AND SE MT. ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE S OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWING MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO INCREASE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NE WY AND SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT OVER SERN MT AS WELL. AN INCREASE IN CUMULUS HAS ALSO BEEN OBSERVED ALONG THE BOUNDARY ACROSS SWRN ND. SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH ND MIGHT DELAY THE ONSET OF DEEPER CONVECTION OVER SOME OF THE AREA...BUT CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY DOES SHOW A STORM DEVELOPING ON THE BOUNDARY OVER CNTRL W CNTRL ND. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP AS THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE. SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS STRUCTURES AS STORMS DEVELOP. ..DIAL.. 07/10/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW... 46440225 45130396 45190532 46240602 46980414 47150180  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 10 20:54:22 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 10 Jul 2004 15:54:22 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407102054.i6AKso132097@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 102054 SWOMCD SPC MCD 102053 NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-102300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1599 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0353 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN WY/NERN CO AND THE NEB PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 102053Z - 102300Z ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FRONT RANGE OF NERN CO/SERN WY OVER THE NEXT HOUR. A WW MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT HOUR FOR NRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE SHEAR WILL BE STRONGER. CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SERN WY AND NCENTRAL CO WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASED LOW LEVEL INFLOW AND INSTABILITY OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WEST OF A LEE TROUGH OVER FAR SERN WY AND OVER THE FRONT RANGE OF NERN CO. STRONGER THAN MODEL FORECAST MID LEVEL FLOW SAMPLED BY THE MDW WITH 35-40 KTS AT 6 KM WILL AID DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS OVER SERN WY AND THE NEB PANHANDLE GIVEN MODERATE INSTABILITY OF 1000-1500 J/KG. FARTHER SOUTH...DECREASED MID LEVEL FLOW SAMPLED BY THE PLATTEVILLE PROFILER WILL LIMIT OVERALL UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION WITH CONVECTION IN THIS AREA...BUT ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND/HAIL IS STILL ANTICIPATED OVER NERN CO THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. ..CROSBIE.. 07/10/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...BOU...CYS... 39780469 40410494 41320483 42090453 42940443 42970325 42980276 42870259 41240276 39820327 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 10 20:57:13 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 10 Jul 2004 15:57:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407102057.i6AKvh100521@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 102057 SWOMCD SPC MCD 102056 NDZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-102300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1600 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0356 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...W THROUGH W CNTRL SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 596... VALID 102056Z - 102300Z STORMS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE LAST HOUR...AND THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST NEXT COUPLE HOURS ACROSS W CNTRL SD. OTHER HIGH BASED STORMS OVER ERN WY MAY INTENSIFY AS THEY MOVE EWD INTO WRN SD. STORMS HAVE INCREASED DURING THE PAST HOUR WITHIN ZONE OF MID LEVEL ASCENT SPREADING EWD THROUGH WRN SD. THE INCREASE IN INTENSITY CAN BE ATTRIBUTED TO STORMS ENCOUNTERING STRONGER INSTABILITY AND WEAKER CAP DOWNSTREAM TOWARD CNTRL SD. FARTHER WEST ACROSS WRN SD...STORMS HAVE MOVED E OF THE WRN PORTION OF WW 596...BUT WILL LEAVE THIS AREA IN THE WATCH SINCE HIGH BASED STORMS OVER ERN WY MAY INTENSIFY AS THE MOVE EAST INTO WRN SD. ..DIAL.. 07/10/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW... 46440225 45130396 45190532 46240602 46980414 47150180 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 10 20:57:34 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 10 Jul 2004 15:57:34 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407102058.i6AKwA100606@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 102054 SWOMCD SPC MCD 102053 NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-102300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1599 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0353 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN WY/NERN CO AND THE NEB PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 102053Z - 102300Z ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FRONT RANGE OF NERN CO/SERN WY OVER THE NEXT HOUR. A WW MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT HOUR FOR NRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE SHEAR WILL BE STRONGER. CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SERN WY AND NCENTRAL CO WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASED LOW LEVEL INFLOW AND INSTABILITY OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WEST OF A LEE TROUGH OVER FAR SERN WY AND OVER THE FRONT RANGE OF NERN CO. STRONGER THAN MODEL FORECAST MID LEVEL FLOW SAMPLED BY THE MDW WITH 35-40 KTS AT 6 KM WILL AID DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS OVER SERN WY AND THE NEB PANHANDLE GIVEN MODERATE INSTABILITY OF 1000-1500 J/KG. FARTHER SOUTH...DECREASED MID LEVEL FLOW SAMPLED BY THE PLATTEVILLE PROFILER WILL LIMIT OVERALL UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION WITH CONVECTION IN THIS AREA...BUT ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND/HAIL IS STILL ANTICIPATED OVER NERN CO THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. ..CROSBIE.. 07/10/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...BOU...CYS... 39780469 40410494 41320483 42090453 42940443 42970325 42980276 42870259 41240276 39820327  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 10 20:59:01 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 10 Jul 2004 15:59:01 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407102059.i6AKxV100745@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 102057 SWOMCD SPC MCD 102056 NDZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-102300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1600 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0356 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...W THROUGH W CNTRL SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 596... VALID 102056Z - 102300Z STORMS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE LAST HOUR...AND THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST NEXT COUPLE HOURS ACROSS W CNTRL SD. OTHER HIGH BASED STORMS OVER ERN WY MAY INTENSIFY AS THEY MOVE EWD INTO WRN SD. STORMS HAVE INCREASED DURING THE PAST HOUR WITHIN ZONE OF MID LEVEL ASCENT SPREADING EWD THROUGH WRN SD. THE INCREASE IN INTENSITY CAN BE ATTRIBUTED TO STORMS ENCOUNTERING STRONGER INSTABILITY AND WEAKER CAP DOWNSTREAM TOWARD CNTRL SD. FARTHER WEST ACROSS WRN SD...STORMS HAVE MOVED E OF THE WRN PORTION OF WW 596...BUT WILL LEAVE THIS AREA IN THE WATCH SINCE HIGH BASED STORMS OVER ERN WY MAY INTENSIFY AS THE MOVE EAST INTO WRN SD. ..DIAL.. 07/10/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW... 46440225 45130396 45190532 46240602 46980414 47150180  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 10 21:08:26 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 10 Jul 2004 16:08:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407102108.i6AL8r103414@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 102108 SWOMCD SPC MCD 102107 NCZ000-VAZ000-102300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1601 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0407 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NRN/CENTRAL NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 102107Z - 102300Z ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL PERSIST WITH CONVECTIVE COMPLEX AS IT MOVES SWD INTO NCENTRAL NC. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WITH MODEST COLD POOL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SWD FROM SCENTRAL VA INTO NCENTRAL NC OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STEEP LAPSE RATES AROUND 9 DEG C FROM THE SFC-3 KM AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG WILL AID IN CONTINUED ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE/GUST FRONT. LACK OF STRONGER BACKGROUND ENVIRONMENTAL WIND FIELDS AS EVIDENT BY REGIONAL VWP/S SHOULD LIMIT A GREATER SEVERE THREAT. ..CROSBIE.. 07/10/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...RNK... 35787969 36008021 36408035 36578019 36557930 36567807 36187779 35727817 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 10 22:06:38 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 10 Jul 2004 17:06:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407102207.i6AM75118528@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 102206 SWOMCD SPC MCD 102205 IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-102330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1602 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0505 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NEB...FAR NWRN MO AND SWRN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 102205Z - 102330Z THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OVER SERN NEB TO THE SOUTH OF OMA AREA. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE LIMITED AREA OF A SEVERE THREAT SHOULD PRECLUDE A NEED FOR A WW. LATEST SFC AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES NARROW AXIS OF INSTABILITY AHEAD OF AN MCV OVER ERN NEB WHERE MLCAPES FROM 2500-3000 J/KG EXISTED. MODIFIED FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR CURRENT OBSERVATIONS OVER FAR SERN NEB INDICATE AROUND 25 J/KG OF REMAINING MLCINH. MODERATE /25 TO 30 KTS/ MID LEVEL FLOW ON THE SERN PERIPHERY OF THE MCV AS SAMPLED RECENTLY BY THE FAIRBURY PROFILER AND HASTINGS VWP ABOVE SSELY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT AROUND 30 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THUS SOME ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT IS POSSIBLE IF CONVECTION CAN OVERCOME REMAINING CINH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND NARROWNESS OF INSTABILITY AXIS SHOULD PRECLUDE A LONGER LIVED SEVERE THREAT. ..CROSBIE.. 07/10/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP... 39939523 40189631 40549632 41309600 41319502 40989444 39789427 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 10 22:11:27 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 10 Jul 2004 17:11:27 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407102212.i6AMCG119863@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 102211 SWOMCD SPC MCD 102210 SDZ000-NEZ000-110015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1603 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0510 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 596... VALID 102210Z - 110015Z CONTINUE WW 596...SEVERE THREAT WILL EVENTUALLY INCREASE EAST OF WW 596 BY THE 11/00-02Z TIME FRAME. EVOLUTION OF VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE CLUSTER IS UNDERWAY...AND APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH FORCING NEAR WEAK MID-LEVEL JET STREAK/SHORT WAVE TROUGH...EMBEDDED WITHIN SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES AND MIGRATING OUT OF THE NORTH CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF UPPER SYSTEM IS PROGGED BY MODELS THROUGH THE MID EVENING HOURS...AND CLUSTER OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND THROUGH 11/00Z IN UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 1500 TO 3000 J/KG. THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WITH DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF DOWNBURSTS NEAR STRONGER CELLS...WITH EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF SIGNIFICANT SURFACE COLD POOL AND BROADER SCALE DAMAGING WIND THREAT LIKELY AFTER 11/00Z. UNTIL THIS OCCURS...EVOLVING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW TO ADVANCE EAST OF PIERRE AND SURROUNDING AREAS OF CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. ..KERR.. 07/10/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR... 45160067 45859970 45579818 45019723 43949771 43279856 42970043 43340138 44110067 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 10 22:38:21 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 10 Jul 2004 17:38:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407102238.i6AMcl126245@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 102238 SWOMCD SPC MCD 102237 MTZ000-110030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1604 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0537 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF CENTRAL MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 597... VALID 102237Z - 110030Z CONTINUE WW. NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED TO THE NORTH/EAST OF CURRENT WW BY 11/00Z. FAIRLY BROAD AREA OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED PAST FEW HOURS IN LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME/STEEPER ISENTROPIC ASCENT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA INTO WEST CENTRAL MONTANA. THIS IS AHEAD OF VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST INTO THE NORTHERN U.S./CANADIAN ROCKIES... AND STRONGER FORCING WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT NEAR/NORTH AND EAST OF THE LEWISTOWN AREA BY 11/00-02Z. AS THIS OCCURS...CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO ENCOUNTER MORE MOIST AND FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW /BENEATH MODERATE MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES/...AND POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WITH DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. STRONGER ACTIVITY COULD APPROACH THE JORDAN AREA BY 11/03Z. ..KERR.. 07/10/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX... 47871179 48881072 48580745 47240628 46520743 46330907 46541119 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 10 23:52:13 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 10 Jul 2004 18:52:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407102352.i6ANqk110796@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 102352 SWOMCD SPC MCD 102351 NDZ000-110145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1605 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0651 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 598... VALID 102351Z - 110145Z CONTINUE WW. ALTHOUGH MID/UPPER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ALONG EAST-WEST SURFACE BOUNDARY VICINITY OF INTERSTATE 94 APPEARS TO BE WEAK...MID-LEVEL INHIBITION SEEMS WEAK ENOUGH TO SUPPORT CONTINUING RISK OF ISOLATED INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS. SURFACE DEW POINTS REMAIN AROUND 70F IN NORTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW JUST TO THE NORTH OF BOUNDARY...AND THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 2000 TO 4000 J/KG...UNTIL INHIBITION INCREASES AS BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO COOL BY 01-02Z. NORTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE ALSO ENHANCING LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS BENEATH WEAK TO MODERATE WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW...SUFFICIENTLY SO THAT SUPERCELLS REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS...PERHAPS A TORNADO. ..KERR.. 07/10/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... 46730222 46830161 46980124 46949970 47199904 47379821 46949788 46419830 46109998 46290186 46280245 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 11 00:57:42 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 10 Jul 2004 19:57:42 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407110058.i6B0wA126762@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 110057 SWOMCD SPC MCD 110056 SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-110230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1606 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0756 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF NRN/CENTRAL AND ERN MT...FAR WRN ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 597...600... VALID 110056Z - 110230Z SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN AREAL COVERAGE OVER WW 597 AND THUS WW 597 IS ANTICIPATED TO BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT /02Z/. CONVECTION OVER ERN PORTIONS OF WW 597 WILL MOVE INTO WW 600 AND IS ANTICIPATED TO INTENSIFY. MUCH OF WW 597 HAS BEEN STABILIZED FROM OUTFLOW OF CONVECTIVE LINE AS IT MOVED EWD ACROSS SWRN/WCENTRAL MT. THE MAIN THREAT FOR SEVERE OVER WW 597 THE NEXT 2 HOURS WILL BE INTO TWO AREAS. ONE WITH THE CONVECTIVE LINE AS IT MOVES TOWARDS WW 600 AND BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER GREATER INSTABILITY. THE OTHER OVER NWRN PORTIONS OF WW 597...NWRN MT WHERE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE TO FEED INTO THE WEST SIDE OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE WILL SUPPORT SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR A CONTINUED THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. OVERALL COVERAGE OF SEVERE THREAT WILL BE CONFINED ENOUGH THAT A REPLACEMENT WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. FARTHER EAST...SEVERE CONVECTION PRESENTLY IN WW 600 WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AS IT MOVES FROM ERN MT INTO WRN ND WHILE MOVING DOWN INSTABILITY AXIS. ..CROSBIE.. 07/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...TFX...MSO... 46670968 47271126 46471363 47451364 48471279 49021055 47980522 47720260 45460303 45350660 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 11 01:52:44 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 10 Jul 2004 20:52:44 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407110153.i6B1rB107915@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 110152 SWOMCD SPC MCD 110151 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-110245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1607 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0851 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SD/W CNTRL MN CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 598... VALID 110151Z - 110245Z NEW WW MAY BE ISSUED BEFORE 03Z. SMALL CONVECTIVE CLUSTER HAS EVOLVED DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS WEST OF FARGO...WHERE HEATED VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER NORTH OF WEAK SURFACE WIND SHIFT REMAINS QUITE UNSTABLE WITH MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE UP TO 4000 J/KG. THIS IS SUPPORTING A FEW INTENSE UPDRAFTS AND POTENTIAL FOR VERY HEAVY RAIN/LARGE HAIL...WITH DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS STILL POSSIBLE ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO. OTHERWISE...SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FARGO AREA IS EXPECTED BY 04Z...WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT SURFACE COLD POOL/GUST FRONT STILL POSSIBLE. ACTIVITY MAY BE SLOW TO WEAKEN AS IT SPREADS EAST OF FARGO INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...BUT LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES BECOME PROGRESSIVELY LESS STEEP ACROSS MINNESOTA. GIVEN WEAK FLOW REGIME...SEVERE THREAT LIKELY WILL DIMINISH BEFORE 06Z. ..KERR.. 07/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS... 46559868 47219790 47669704 47379571 46639510 45729575 45699733 45719860 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 11 02:02:46 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 10 Jul 2004 21:02:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407110203.i6B23C110189@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 110202 SWOMCD SPC MCD 110202 SDZ000-110400- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1608 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0902 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/EASTERN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 599... VALID 110202Z - 110400Z CONTINUE WW. INITIAL CONVECTIVE CLUSTER HAS ALL BUT DISSIPATED WELL EAST OF THE PIERRE AREA... WITH RENEWED INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING ACROSS PIERRE AND AREAS TO THE IMMEDIATE EAST. THIS IS BEING SUPPORTED BY WARM ADVECTION ABOVE SURFACE COLD POOL...ON EASTERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH PLAINS/PLATEAU LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE. LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY...WHICH MAY PERSIST ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH. ..KERR.. 07/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...UNR... 45109970 45669811 44729731 43579757 43149940 43990032 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 11 02:42:39 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 10 Jul 2004 21:42:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407110243.i6B2h5119908@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 110242 SWOMCD SPC MCD 110241 KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-110515- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1609 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0941 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SW NEB/NW KS CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 110241Z - 110515Z RISK FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL CONTINUES...RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL IS INCREASING. ONGOING SMALL CONVECTIVE CLUSTER WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH...AND MAY EVEN EXPAND/INTENSIFY A BIT FURTHER THIS EVENING AS CONVERGENCE/WARM ADVECTION INCREASE ON NOSE OF NOCTURNALLY STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET. OBSERVATIONAL/MODEL DATA SUGGEST STRONGEST FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH 30 TO 35 KT CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS JET WILL BECOME FOCUSED NEAR THE WESTERN KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER. WITH CAPE UP TO 2000 J/KG...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES MAY SUPPORTING CONTINUING RISK FOR LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...PRIMARY THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAIN TOTALS. THOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FOR ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTING CONVECTION ARE NOT EXTREME...HEAVY RAIN CORES WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND MAY BEGIN TO TRAIN ACROSS AREAS AROUND MCCOOK BY 06Z. ..KERR.. 07/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TOP...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU... 40480221 40870091 39589791 39289990 39340171 39810264 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 11 03:41:20 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 10 Jul 2004 22:41:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407110341.i6B3fl102042@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 110341 SWOMCD SPC MCD 110340 MTZ000-110545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1610 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1040 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 600... VALID 110340Z - 110545Z CONTINUE WW. NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS PARTS OF EXTREME EASTERN MONTANA/WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY 06Z. SMALL BUT INTENSE/ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTER HAS EVOLVED DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS WEST/SOUTHWEST OF JORDAN MT. ACTIVITY IS NOW NORTH OF WEAK EAST-WEST SURFACE BOUNDARY...WHERE MODERATE EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS BENEATH 30 TO 40 KT WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW IS CONTRIBUTING TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES. AS ACTIVITY CONTINUES EASTWARD WITH ZONE OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...INTO MORE MOIST LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA WITH MID/UPPER 50S SURFACE DEW POINTS...THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE. STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE ALSO QUITE LIKELY...AND MAY REACH THE GLENDIVE AREA BY 06-07Z. ..KERR.. 07/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW... 47260692 47530593 47430506 47360419 46960411 46710469 46630563 46660663 46720730 47010705 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 11 04:20:04 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 10 Jul 2004 23:20:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407110420.i6B4KV111422@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 110419 SWOMCD SPC MCD 110419 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-110615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1611 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1119 PM CDT SAT JUL 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SE ND/WRN MN/ERN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 599...601... VALID 110419Z - 110615Z REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 599 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 05Z...CONTINUING REMAINING VALID PORTION OF 601. DOWNSTREAM OF VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...PRIMARY SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK CONTINUES TO PROGRESS JUST NORTH OF THE U.S. BORDER INTO WESTERN ONTARIO. HOWEVER...TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO WEAKER SUBTROPICAL BRANCH OF WESTERLIES ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS AXIS CONTINUES TO AID SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF STORMS FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA THROUGH SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST AS TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVERNIGHT...BUT INTENSITIES WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN COOLER LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. ..KERR.. 07/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR... 47719570 47639420 46679470 45769454 44609554 44139666 43549747 43689884 44519816 45379832 45959788 46519692 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 11 05:41:36 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 11 Jul 2004 00:41:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407110542.i6B5gB132296@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 110540 SWOMCD SPC MCD 110540 NDZ000-MTZ000-110615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1612 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1240 AM CDT SUN JUL 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ECNTRL MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 600... VALID 110540Z - 110615Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 600 IS SET TO EXPIRE AT 0600 UTC AND WILL LIKELY NOT BE REISSUED. CONVECTIVE CLUSTER ACROSS ECNTRL MT CONTINUES DOWNSTREAM OF MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW OVER THE PAC NW. THE TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO MOVE DOWNSTREAM ALONG WEAK E-W ORIENTED FRONT SITUATED FROM ECNTRL MT INTO SRN ND THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AIDED BY WARM ADVECTION ON NOSE OF SELY LLJ. RUC40 FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST QUITE A SUBSTANTIAL DRY LAYER EXISTS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE AND THERE COULD BE ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ALONG WITH HAIL ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. COVERAGE SEEMS SPARSE ENOUGH TO NOT REQUIRE A NEW WW DOWNSTREAM. HOWEVER...IF SIGNS OF INTENSIFICATION ARE NOTED...ONE MAY BE REQUIRED. ..RACY.. 07/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BIS...BYZ...GGW... 46240714 47420716 47740415 46940247 46170245 45850490 45970663 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 11 15:14:52 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 11 Jul 2004 10:14:52 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407111515.i6BFFH125300@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 111514 SWOMCD SPC MCD 111514 ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-111645- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1613 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1014 AM CDT SUN JUL 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IA...NE MO THROUGH NRN AND CNTRL IL CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE VALID 111514Z - 111645Z PORTIONS OF ERN IA...NW MO AND NRN THROUGH CNTRL IL WILL BE UPGRADED TO SLIGHT RISK ON THE 1630Z UPDATE. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS THEY DEVELOP ESE INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL THE MAIN THREATS. EARLY THIS MORNING TWO AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS WERE OBSERVED OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY. THE MOST ORGANIZED WAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN MCV OVER WRN WI WITH A TRAILING LINE OF STORMS EXTENDING SWWD THROUGH NRN IA. ANOTHER AREA OF STORMS WAS OVER SRN IA. THE MCV WILL MOVE ESEWD INTO THE LESS UNSTABLE REGIME ACROSS WI WHICH WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR STORMS ON NRN PART OF LINE TO INTENSIFY. THE STORMS ON THE SWRN PART OF THIS SYSTEM ACROSS NRN IA HAD BEEN BACKBUILDING ALONG THE LOW LEVEL JET...AND RECENT RADAR DATA SUGGEST THESE STORMS ARE NOW BEGINNING TO FORWARD PROPAGATE SEWD. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND CONVECTION S OF THIS FEATURE AND MEAN CLOUD LAYER FLOW LARGELY PARALLEL TO THE ORIENTATION OF THE STORMS...IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN WHETHER OR NOT THESE STORMS CAN MAINTAIN THEIR INTENSITY AND REMAIN ORGANIZED AS THEY DEVELOP SEWD. STORMS OVER SRN IA MAY ALSO INTENSITY INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE DES MOINES VWP SHOW 20-30 KT WLY CLOUD LAYER FLOW WHICH IS ORIENTED MORE FAVORABLY WITH RESPECT TO THE N-S LINE OF STORMS OVER SE IA TO PROMOTE EWD PROPAGATION TOWARD THE DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE ACROSS NRN/CNTRL IL. ..DIAL.. 07/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN... 40388827 40059211 41329198 42269121 41938774 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 11 15:33:55 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 11 Jul 2004 10:33:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407111534.i6BFYK130394@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 111533 SWOMCD SPC MCD 111533 IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-111730- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1614 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1033 AM CDT SUN JUL 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SE NEB...SW IA AND EXTREME NW MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 111533Z - 111730Z THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS SE NEB AND SPREAD EWD INTO PARTS OF SW IA AND NW MO. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. LATE THIS MORNING A BAND OF CLOUDS RESULTING FROM ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AN MCV IS MOVING EWD THROUGH SE NEB. THE ATMOSPHERE DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS FEATURE IS ALREADY MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...AND FURTHER DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO WARM. LATEST RADAR DATA ALREADY SHOW ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MCV OVER SE NEB AND ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. OTHER STORMS MIGHT ALSO DEVELOP ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DROPPING SWD THROUGH WRN IA/ERN NEB. MULTICELL STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE AFTERNOON. ..DIAL.. 07/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX... 40099575 40759695 41919675 41909487 40659402 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 11 17:49:12 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 11 Jul 2004 12:49:12 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407111749.i6BHna101611@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 111749 SWOMCD SPC MCD 111748 NDZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-111945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1615 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1248 PM CDT SUN JUL 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN MT AND WRN ND/FAR NWRN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 111748Z - 111945Z ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER PORTIONS OF NCENTRAL/ERN MT IS LIKELY TO BECOME ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND BEGIN POSING A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL AS IT MOVES INTO FAR NWRN SD/WRN ND IN THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. A WW IS ANTICIPATED TO BE NEEDED BY 19Z. LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL MT EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY AND RECENT PASSAGE IN THE BILLINGS VWP DATA. ELEVATED CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO INTENSIFY AS LOW LEVEL DESTABILIZATION OCCURS BENEATH MID LEVEL CAA AS EVIDENT BY 17Z GGW SOUNDING. MODIFICATION OF THIS SOUNDING FOR CONDITIONS SLIGHTLY SOUTHEAST WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE WARMER OVER ERN MT/WRN ND AND FAR NWRN SD INDICATES STILL AROUND 50-100 J/KG OF MLCINH. WITH A FEW MORE HOURS OF HEATING...SFC TEMPERATURE IN THE UPPER 80S WITH DEWPTS IN THE LOWER-MID 60S...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTION TO BECOME ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND BEGIN TO POSE A SEVERE THREAT. STRENGTH OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION SHOULD START OUT AS SUPERCELLULAR IN NATURE. FARTHER WEST OVER SCENTRAL/SWRN MT...LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WILL AID IN MAINTAINING WLY WINDS LIMITING UPSLOPE FLOW AND POTENTIAL FOR ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AS COLD FRONT MOVES SWD INTO SWRN/SCENTRAL MT AND UPSLOPE INCREASES IN THIS AREA CONVECTION WILL THEN BECOME LIKELY. DESPITE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG WIND PROFILES... INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 500-700 J/KG WOULD LIKELY BE INSUFFICIENT FOR A WW. ..CROSBIE.. 07/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...TFX... 44940399 45310528 46020588 47500674 47950873 48660922 48940865 49000053 48040051 46210060 44980209 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 11 18:43:52 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 11 Jul 2004 13:43:52 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407111844.i6BIiG116384@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 111843 SWOMCD SPC MCD 111843 SDZ000-NEZ000-112045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1616 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0143 PM CDT SUN JUL 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 111843Z - 112045Z THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP OVER THE BLACK HILLS WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. STRENGTH OF UPSLOPE/DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES SUGGESTS THAT LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. EWD MOVEMENT OF CONVECTION WILL BE SLOW INITIALLY DUE TO HIGHER CINH EAST OF THE HILLS. THUS A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED BEFORE 21Z. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS INCIPIENT CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE BLACK HILLS. MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE FROM 1000-1500 J/KG ALONG WITH 30-35 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT STRONG UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. MODIFIED 12Z RAP SOUNDING FOR 18Z CONDITIONS INDICATES BETWEEN 100-200 J/KG OF MLCINH OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS EAST OF THE HILLS...AND THUS EWD MOVEMENT OF CONVECTION/SEVERE THREAT AWAY FROM THE HILLS IS ANTICIPATED TO BE SLOW EVEN WITH ROTATING UPDRAFTS. SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF HEATING WOULD BE NEEDED WITH LOWER ELEVATION TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER-MID 90S TO SUPPORT EWD ADVANCEMENT OF CONVECTION. ADDITIONAL HIGH BASED CONVECTION OVER ERN WY MAY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES INTO WRN SD LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHEN CINH WILL BE WEAKER. ..CROSBIE.. 07/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR... 43190380 44140395 44730365 45230322 45350221 45210170 44300113 42990108 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 11 19:06:05 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 11 Jul 2004 14:06:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407111906.i6BJ6V122173@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 111905 SWOMCD SPC MCD 111904 IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-112100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1617 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0204 PM CDT SUN JUL 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NEB...SRN IA...NRN MO AND NRN/CNTRL IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 602...603... VALID 111904Z - 112100Z STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REINTENSIFY ACROSS EXTREME ERN IA OR NWRN IL NEXT HOUR OR TWO. OTHER STORMS WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER SRN IA THROUGH NRN MO. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREATS. EARLY THIS AFTERNOON A SEWD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM SRN WI SWWD THROUGH ERN IA THEN WWD THROUGH SRN IA. STORMS THAT DEVELOPED ALONG THE NRN PART OF THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS ERN IA HAVE WEAKENED AS THEY ENCOUNTERED A BOUNDARY LAYER THAT HAS BEEN STABILIZED BY PREVIOUS CONVECTION. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THAT ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY ON THE REMNANT OUTFLOW AS IT CONTINUES EWD THROUGH NRN IL WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE. THE SWRN PART OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING THROUGH SRN IA HAS BEEN MORE ACTIVE. SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND 20 TO 25 KT FROM THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR OVER SWRN IA HAS MAINTAINED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS PORTION OF THE BOUNDARY. AN MCV IS ALSO MOVING EWD THROUGH SERN NEB AND MID LEVEL ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO PROMOTE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. STORMS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO INTENSIFY IN THIS AREA DUE TO PRESENCE OF CAP. RECENT TRENDS IN RADAR SUGGEST STORMS ARE FINALLY STARTING TO INCREASE IN INTENSIFY AND TAP IN THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S... RESULTING IN A WEAKER CAP. ..DIAL.. 07/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX... 40099575 40759695 41919675 41909487 40659402 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 11 19:54:08 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 11 Jul 2004 14:54:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407111954.i6BJsW103930@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 111953 SWOMCD SPC MCD 111952 MTZ000-WYZ000-112115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1618 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0252 PM CDT SUN JUL 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN MT AND NERN WY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 111952Z - 112115Z EARLIER THOUGHTS OF DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER ERN MT/WRN ND FROM HIGH BASED CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER...SEVERE CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY OVER CENTRAL MT ALONG LEE TROUGH/COLD FRONT WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THEREFORE WW ISSUANCE IS NOW LIKELY TO OCCUR AROUND 21Z. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE LEAD SHORTWAVE SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG LEE TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL MT FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. MODIFIED 18Z SOUNDING FROM GTF INDICATES THAT THERE EXISTS ABOUT 50 J/KG OF MLCINH OVER CENTRAL MT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. BUT A LITTLE MORE HEATING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND MID LEVEL COOLING AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH SUGGESTS DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR WITHIN THE HOUR ALONG THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM BOZEMAN NEWD TO JUST WEST OF GTF AND OVER THE MTNS OF SWRN MT. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WEST OF LEE TROUGH AND EAST OF COLD FRONT FROM AREAS AROUND GTF SWD TO NEAR LIVINGSTON SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL DUE TO THE HIGH BASED NATURE OF CONVECTION AND MLCAPES FROM 500-1000 J/KG. UNLIKE ALONG THE COLD FRONT...IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS ALONG THE LEE TROUGH BEFORE THE COLD FRONT OVERTAKES THIS BOUNDARY...IT WILL LIKELY BECOME QUICKLY SEVERE AS MLCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG AND BETTER LOW LEVEL INFLOW EXIST EAST OF THE BOUNDARY. ADDITIONALLY ... CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NERN WY JUST EAST OF THE BIG HORNS...SHOULD QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE ONCE THEY BECOME SURFACE BASED AND EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO FAR SERN MT. ..CROSBIE.. 07/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX... 44950895 45321006 46571083 47341081 49020986 48980730 48940514 44630423 44430666 44850774 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 11 19:59:24 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 11 Jul 2004 14:59:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407111959.i6BJxt105354@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 111959 SWOMCD SPC MCD 111958 NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-112200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1619 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0258 PM CDT SUN JUL 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NEB PANHANDLE/WRN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 111958Z - 112200Z THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEB PANHANDLE AND SHOULD POSE AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND/HAIL THREAT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE MARGINAL NATURE OF THE THREAT. HIGH BASED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES SLOWLY ESEWD DOWN INSTABILITY AXIS OVER THE NEB PANHANDLE. MEDICINE BOW PROFILER INDICATES THAT MID LEVEL FLOW SHOULD INCREASE TO AROUND 30 KTS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ON THE SRN FRINGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES. BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL AID IN AROUND 35 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTING UPDRAFT ROTATION AND THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS. HIGH BASED NATURE OF CONVECTION SUGGESTS THAT DAMAGING WINDS MAY BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. CONVECTION MAY ORGANIZE INTO A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER THIS EVENING AS LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES. ..CROSBIE.. 07/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...BOU...CYS... 41000286 41320363 42610389 43030336 42990148 42720093 41310139 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 11 22:19:43 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 11 Jul 2004 17:19:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407112220.i6BMK6113048@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 112219 SWOMCD SPC MCD 112219 ILZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-120015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1620 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0519 PM CDT SUN JUL 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB/SRN IA/NRN AND CNTRL IL/PARTS OF NRN AND CNTRL MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 602...603...604... VALID 112219Z - 120015Z CONTINUE WW 604. WW 603 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 23Z. WW 602 MAY BE REPLACED WITH NEW WW ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL IL. BROADER SCALE TROUGH...WITH A COUPLE OF EMBEDDED SMALLER SCALE WAVES/ CYCLONIC VORTICITY MAXIMA...CONTINUES TO MIGRATE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE HAS AIDED CONSIDERABLE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WHICH HAS GENERATED MERGING SURFACE COLD POOLS NOW SPREADING INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. LEADING EDGE OF OUTFLOW IS NOW SURGING ACROSS THE SPRINGFIELD IL AREA...BUT CURVES BACK ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSOURI INTO THE KIRKSVILLE MO AREA...WHERE THE BOUNDARY HAS BECOME TEMPORARILY QUASI-STATIONARY. ANOTHER SOUTHEASTWARD SURGING PORTION OF OUTFLOW EXTENDS WEST OF KIRKSVILLE INTO THE VICINITY OF ST. JOSEPH. WEAK NORTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF OUTFLOW INTO VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI/SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN INDIANA. DEW POINTS ARE IN THE LOWER/MID 70S...AND HEATING HAS CONTRIBUTED TO MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE UP TO 3000 J/KG ACROSS THIS REGION. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF VIGOROUS NEW UPDRAFTS NEAR GUST FRONT...WITH EVAPORATIVE COOLING NEAR HEAVY RAIN CORES MAINTAINING STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT AND POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS AT LEAST INTO EARLY EVENING. GIVEN WEAKNESS OF LARGE-SCALE FLOW REGIME...STORM MOTIONS ARE GENERALLY UNDER 35 KT...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO MINIMIZE BROADER SCALE DAMAGING WIND THREAT. ..KERR.. 07/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...EAX...OAX...TOP... 40079546 39919450 39849348 40009313 40599245 40169184 39839140 39599065 39878964 40258910 40658890 40598817 39938779 39168824 38788871 38488951 38539047 38819187 38759246 38839344 39089452 39489548 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 11 23:35:27 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 11 Jul 2004 18:35:27 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407112335.i6BNZp102383@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 112335 SWOMCD SPC MCD 112334 NDZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-120100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1621 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0634 PM CDT SUN JUL 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN MT...WRN ND AND NWRN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 605... VALID 112334Z - 120100Z SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL/SERN MT SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD AROUND 30 KTS. LEAD SUPERCELL OVER POWDER RIVER COUNTY WILL MOVE OUT OF WW 605 BY 01Z. THUS A NEW WW WILL BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF NWRN SD AND WRN ND BEFORE 01Z. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS NEW THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OCCURS AND CONSOLIDATES INTO A LINE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT/LEE TROUGH INTERSECTION OVER CENTRAL MT DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IN THE MEAN TIME...THE LEAD OF SEVERAL SUPERCELLS OVER ERN MT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF WW 605 AND INTO WRN ND BY AROUND 01Z. RELATIVELY HIGH LCL/LFC HEIGHTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MAKE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. IF CONVECTION CAN MAINTAIN SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS BEFORE BECOMING LINEAR EWD INTO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS/LOWER LCL ENVIRONMENT OVER NWRN ND...LOW LEVEL SHEAR INCREASING AROUND SUNSET MAY SUPPORT A THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES IN THIS AREA. ..CROSBIE.. 07/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...TFX... 45020815 46280839 49020838 49010011 44920037 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 12 00:17:30 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 11 Jul 2004 19:17:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407120017.i6C0Hr113164@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 120017 SWOMCD SPC MCD 120016 MOZ000-ILZ000-KSZ000-120215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1622 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0716 PM CDT SUN JUL 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NE KS...NRN AND CNTRL MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 604... VALID 120016Z - 120215Z REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 604 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 01Z. AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS A BIT MORE QUICKLY ACROSS THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS... RISK FOR VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. CONVECTION HAS ALREADY WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY SOUTHEAST OF KIRKSVILLE MISSOURI...AND THOUGH NEW CONVECTION IS STILL POSSIBLE ON OUTFLOW BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE COLUMBIA AND ST. LOUIS AREAS...ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG STALLING UPSTREAM FLANK OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW...FROM NEAR/EAST OF CHILLICOTHE INTO THE ST. JOSEPH AREA. THIS APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH ENHANCED WARM ADVECTION ALONG WEAK WEST SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET CURVING IN ANTICYCLONIC ARC FROM CENTRAL KANSAS INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING IN CONFLUENT REGIME NORTH OF THIS AXIS NEAR THE CONCORDIA KS AREA. THESE STORMS MAY BE SHORT-LIVED AS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION STRENGTHENS WITH ONSET OF SURFACE COOLING. ACTIVITY WEST OF ST. JOSEPH INTO AREAS NORTHEAST OF KANSAS CITY WILL BE MORE PERSISTENT...BUT MAY BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY/SHORTLY AFTER 03Z AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERS/WEAKENS IN RESPONSE TO CONTINUED PROGRESSION OF BROAD UPPER TROUGH FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. UNTIL THEN...LARGE HAIL/GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN STRONGEST CELLS...BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN SLOW MOVING/TRAINING CONVECTION MAY BE PRIMARY THREAT. ..KERR.. 07/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...GID... 39419804 39669696 39939595 39689498 39709388 39339299 39219202 39209131 38999067 38369065 38549183 38759238 38689318 38649415 38999575 38919693 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 12 02:19:45 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 11 Jul 2004 21:19:45 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407120224.i6C2Oe118286@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 120219 SWOMCD SPC MCD 120219 NDZ000-MTZ000-120415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1623 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0919 PM CDT SUN JUL 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MT AND WRN/CNTRL ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 605...607... VALID 120219Z - 120415Z CONTINUE WW 607. WW 605 WILL BE REPLACED WITH NEW WW BY 03Z. MOST SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NOW APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING ALONG LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS/LEE SURFACE TROUGH IN THE VICINITY OF THE MONTANA/NORTH DAKOTA BORDER. LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPEST ALONG THIS AXIS...WITH DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER SUPPORTIVE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THIS HAS ALREADY OCCURRED WITH STORMS NEAR BAKER MT...WHERE 0156Z SURFACE OBSERVATION HAD RECORDED 50 KT GUST. OUTFLOWS APPEAR LIKELY TO MERGE INTO ONE LARGE EASTWARD PROPAGATING GUST FRONT NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WHERE WEAK EASTERLY COMPONENT TO SURFACE FLOW WILL ENHANCE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES BENEATH 30 TO 40 KT WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW. BOUNDARY LAYER IS INCREASINGLY MOIST ACROSS WESTERN INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ...WITH MID 60S TO NEAR 70F DEW POINTS CONTRIBUTING TO SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR INTENSIFYING UPDRAFTS WITH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL. DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL ALSO CONTINUE WITH EVOLVING SEVERE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM... WHICH MAY APPROACH MINOT AFB INTO AREAS WEST OF BISMARCK BY 04-05Z. OTHERWISE SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE CELLS CONTINUE BENEATH COLD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA...AND MAY PERSIST ANOTHER FEW HOURS...AIDED BY INCREASING NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME. ..KERR.. 07/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BIS...BYZ...GGW...TFX... 48940147 48130157 47370109 46460133 46100208 46090337 46270413 45770504 45590635 46230857 47040927 47720798 47860740 47820659 48050597 48990563 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 12 02:55:13 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 11 Jul 2004 21:55:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407120255.i6C2ta127130@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 120254 SWOMCD SPC MCD 120254 SDZ000-120530- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1624 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0954 PM CDT SUN JUL 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL / ERN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 120254Z - 120530Z SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SERN SD THROUGH LATE EVENING...AND A WW DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE NEEDED. CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER CENTRAL SD WILL CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY EWD...AND THEN WILL LIKELY TURN SEWD WITH TIME AS LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES OUT OF THE SSW. CAP IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...AND STORMS ARE NOW MOVING INTO MOIST AXIS. THEREFORE...WITH LOW LEVEL FORCING DUE TO WARM ADVECTION CONTINUING...STORMS WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN INTENSITY AS THEY MOVE E AND SEWD. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS APPEAR LIKELY. ..JEWELL.. 07/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...UNR... 44040047 44579992 44509716 42979752 43339973 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 12 04:35:23 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 11 Jul 2004 23:35:23 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407120435.i6C4Zj121552@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 120435 SWOMCD SPC MCD 120434 SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-120630- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1625 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1134 PM CDT SUN JUL 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN MT...ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 607...608... VALID 120434Z - 120630Z WW 608 LIKELY WILL BE CANCELLED SHORTLY. CONTINUE REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 607. SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO EASTERN DAKOTAS OVERNIGHT. DAMAGING WIND THREAT APPEARS LIKELY TO PERSIST WITH CONVECTIVE LINE AS IT SPREADS ACROSS THE MINOT AFB AND BISMARCK AREAS BY 06Z. SLIGHTLY COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER EASTWARD INTO THE DEVILS LAKE AND JAMESTOWN AREAS MAY BEGIN TO MITIGATE WIND POTENTIAL ALONG GUST FRONT THEREAFTER. HOWEVER...STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME TO THE SOUTHEAST OF MAIN UPPER TROUGH LIFTING INTO SASKATCHEWAN WILL MAINTAIN VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTH DAKOTA/EXTREME NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA BY 12Z. STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT WITH CAPE OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG FOR MOIST PARCELS LIFTED ABOVE NEAR SURFACE INVERSION LAYER WILL SUPPORT RISK OF LEAST LARGE HAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ..KERR.. 07/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR...GGW... 48979879 47869888 46319770 45359745 45310057 45320207 45420305 45460309 45880346 46820323 47350370 47410422 47430428 47670529 48620427 49050409 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 12 06:29:56 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 12 Jul 2004 01:29:56 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407120630.i6C6UJ118031@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 120629 SWOMCD SPC MCD 120629 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-120800- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1626 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0129 AM CDT MON JUL 12 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN ND...EXTREME NRN SD AND NWRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 607...609... VALID 120629Z - 120800Z DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL THREATS WILL BE SPREADING EWD INTO THE RED RIVER VLY AND PERHAPS INTO NWRN MN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A WW WILL BE ISSUED DOWNSTREAM INTO NWRN MN. GRAND FORKS WEATHER RADAR SHOWS A DEVELOPING BOW ECHO AROUND 50 MILES WEST OF DEVILS LAKE WITH TIGHT HIGH REFLECTIVITY ALONG THE LEADING EDGE AND REAR INFLOW NOTCHES ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF THE LINE. THUS...DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL THROUGH 07-09Z WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN THE DEVILS LAKE AREA EWD TO THE RED RIVER NORTH OF GRAND FORKS AS IT TRANSLATES EWD AT 45 KTS. THOUGH THE AIR MASS DOWNSTREAM EAST OF THE RED RIVER IS MORE STABLE THAN FARTHER WEST...UPSTREAM MCS IS WELL-DEVELOPED AND THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE MAY EXTEND EWD INTO NWRN MN. AS SUCH...ANOTHER WW DOWNSTREAM WILL BE NEEDED SHORTLY. OTHERWISE...TSTMS ARE APT TO BACKBUILD WWD ALONG THE SD/ND BORDER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...ALONG NOSE OF 30 KT LLJ. MAXIMUM WARM ADVECTION IS LIKELY TO REMAIN IN THAT AREA THROUGH 10Z AT LEAST. MUCAPES TO 2500 J/KG AND FAVORABLE CAPE BEARING SHEAR WILL ENCOURAGE LARGE HAIL PRODUCTION IN THE STRONGER STORMS. MOST OF THE STRONGER ACTIVITY WILL STAY INVOF SRN EDGE OF WW 609. ..RACY.. 07/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...ABR...BIS... 45580064 46360211 46950113 47650044 48400043 48980122 49029736 48899549 48129438 46929513 45709656 45519753 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 12 08:14:46 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 12 Jul 2004 03:14:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407120815.i6C8FB112251@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 120814 SWOMCD SPC MCD 120813 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-120945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1627 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0313 AM CDT MON JUL 12 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND...EXTREME NRN SD AND NWRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 609...610... VALID 120813Z - 120945Z DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL THREATS WILL MOVE INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY 09Z AND INTO NWRN MN THEREAFTER. WELL-DEFINED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION HAS EVOLVED FROM ONGOING MCS AND WAS CENTERED VCNTY PILOT MOUND MANITOBA AT 08Z. STRONG REAR INFLOW WRAPPING AROUND THIS ENTITY WAS SAMPLED IN WAKE OF THE LINEAR MCS WITH MINOT AFB VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWING 50 KTS BELOW 1KM AND 70 KTS AT 2KM. STRONGEST WIND SIGNATURE PASSED JUST NORTH OF DEVILS LAKE AND APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING GIVEN EXPANDING STRATIFORM-TYPE PCPN JUST TO ITS WEST. HOWEVER...GUSTY WINDS... POSSIBLY TO SEVERE LEVELS...MAY OCCUR DOWNSTREAM INTO NWRN MN GIVEN HOW WELL-ORGANIZED THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON HOW FAR EWD THE SEVERE THREAT WILL ADVANCE GIVEN MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT TOWARD INTERNATIONAL FALLS. MEANWHILE...CELL MERGER HAS OCCURRED VCNTY JAMESTOWN AND RESULTANT CELL APPEARS TO HAVE BRIEFLY GAINED SUPERCELLULAR CHARACTERISTICS. THIS CELL IS APT TO RIDE NRN PERIPHERY OF STRONGEST INSTABILITY AXIS INTO THE FARGO AREA THROUGH 930Z. WHILE LARGE HAIL COULD OCCUR...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT CELL MAY EVOLVE INTO A BOW AND GIVE DAMAGING WINDS TO AREAS EWD THROUGH WCNTRL MN BEFORE DAYBREAK. FINALLY...TO THE SOUTH...WARM ADVECTION DERIVED TSTMS CONTINUE TO BACKBUILD INTO NCNTRL SD AND MAY GIVE LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS TO AREAS ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF WW 609. ..RACY.. 07/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS... 45380070 46760050 47559870 48959771 48989296 45849398 45839807 45579813 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 12 09:53:53 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 12 Jul 2004 04:53:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407120954.i6C9sI108602@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 120953 SWOMCD SPC MCD 120953 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-121100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1628 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0453 AM CDT MON JUL 12 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND NRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 610... VALID 120953Z - 121100Z DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF WCNTRL-CNTRL MN THROUGH 11-12 UTC. NRN PART OF THE LINEAR MCS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED SINCE 09 UTC AS IT ENCOUNTERED MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT EAST OF THE RED RIVER VLY. AS A RESULT...LATEST STATUS GUIDANCE HAS CLEARED NRN PARTS OF WW 610 WHERE REINTENSIFICATION OF THE CONVECTION APPEARS UNLIKELY. TO THE SOUTH...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DEPICTS NERN PERIPHERY OF AN INSTABILITY AXIS INTO WCNTRL/SWRN MN...AND SRN END OF THE LINE HAS MAINTAINED CHARACTER THIS MORNING. GRAND FORKS AFB OBSERVATION NOTED A 47KT WIND GUST AT 0848Z. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY TRACK ESEWD INTO THE FERGUS FALLS...PELICAN RAPIDS AND DETROIT LAKES AREAS BETWEEN 1000-1100 UTC WITH POSSIBLE DAMAGING WINDS. WILL MAINTAIN WW FARTHER E TOWARD THE BRAINERD AND LITTLE FALLS REGION...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TSTMS WILL WEAKEN BY THE TIME THEY REACH THESE LOCATIONS. IF THAT IS THE CASE...WW MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY. ..RACY.. 07/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR... 45929749 47769719 47689369 45919414 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 12 13:53:56 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 12 Jul 2004 08:53:56 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407121354.i6CDsH120740@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 121353 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121353 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-121600- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1629 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0853 AM CDT MON JUL 12 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN ND/NERN AND ERN SD/WRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 121353Z - 121600Z SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS PARTS OF ERN SD AND WRN MN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. A WATCH MAY BE NEED OVER PARTS OF THIS REGION SOON. RECENT SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER FAULK COUNTY APPEARS TO HAVE OCCURRED WHERE STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERSECTED LEE/THERMAL TROUGH AXIS WITHIN VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW ALONG AND NORTH OF THE OUTFLOW COUPLED WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL FLOW AND ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH SHOULD MAINTAIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELLS THROUGH THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY CONTRIBUTING TO HIGH CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...STRONG MESOSCALE FORCING INVOF OUTFLOW AND LEE TROUGH...COMBINED WITH A COUPLE MORE HOURS OF HEATING ACROSS ERN SD...SHOULD RESULT IN ADDITIONAL INTENSE TSTM DEVELOPMENT. THIS SCENARIO APPEARS TO BE SUPPORTED BY LATEST ETA...ETAKF...AND GFS MODEL RUNS WITH THOSE MODELS GENERATING CONVECTIVE QPF AND MODEST UVVS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. ..CARBIN.. 07/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...UNR... 46200015 46219568 43659608 43650047 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 12 16:13:10 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 12 Jul 2004 11:13:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407121613.i6CGDV122216@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 121612 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121612 GAZ000-SCZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-121845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1630 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1112 AM CDT MON JUL 12 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TN/SWRN NC/NRN AL/NWRN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 121612Z - 121845Z SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL WAS INCREASING ACROSS PARTS OF THE TN VALLEY AND THE SOUTH. A SCATTERING OF DAMAGING WIND EVENTS MAY UNFOLD ACROSS THESE AREAS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. RANDOM/PULSE NATURE OF THE THREAT WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO CONTAIN THE OVERALL HAZARD WITHIN A TSTM WATCH BUT PARTS OF THE REGION WILL BE UPGRADED TO HIGHER SEVERE WIND PROBABILITIES/SLGT RISK IN THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK. TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED ACROSS PARTS OF NERN AL WITHIN MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WHERE MLCAPE VALUES WERE APPROACHING 1500 J/KG. THIS REGION APPEARS TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK BACKGROUND ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH DIFFLUENT MID LEVEL FLOW IN THE BASE OF A TROUGH CROSSING THE OH VALLEY. FURTHERMORE...WEAK CAPPING...STRONG HEATING...AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL PROMOTE VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS DESPITE RELATIVELY WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. MID LEVEL DRY AIR INTRUSION AND SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS INCREASING TO MORE THAN 20F SHOULD ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO A HIGHER CONCENTRATION OF DAMAGING WET DOWNBURST WINDS AS THIS CONVECTION INTENSIFIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN WEAK 10-15KT MID LEVEL FLOW EXPECT THE BULK OF THIS CONVECTION TO REMAIN PULSE IN NATURE. HOWEVER...THE REGION WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR FURTHER ORGANIZATION...AND POSSIBLY A MORE WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE THREAT AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. ..CARBIN.. 07/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN... 35758349 33468306 32538451 32508669 34658806 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 12 17:40:07 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 12 Jul 2004 12:40:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407121740.i6CHeS132032@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 121739 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121739 VAZ000-TNZ000-NCZ000-KYZ000-121945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1631 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1239 PM CDT MON JUL 12 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE AND ERN TN...FAR SERN KY AND SWRN VA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 121739Z - 121945Z ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH CONVECTION AS IT CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE/DEVELOP ALONG SLOWLY SEWD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS SERN/SCENTRAL KY. IF GREATER ORGANIZATION OF THE LINE CAN OCCUR...THEN A WW MAY BE NEEDED IN A FEW HOURS. MID LEVEL MCV OVER SCENTRAL IND WAS SUPPORTING 35-40 KT NWLY WINDS IN THE 2-3 KM LAYER OBSERVED IN LOUISVILLE AND EVANSVILLE VWP DATA. DESPITE INCREASING INSTABILITY DOWNSTREAM OF THE CONVECTION WITH MLCAPES TO AROUND 1500 J/KG AS OF 17Z...LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON THE ORDER OF 7 DEG C/KM REMAIN MARGINAL TO SUPPORT DAMAGING WINDS PRESENTLY. AS FURTHER HEATING OCCURS...THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL INCREASE BY MID AFTERNOON. IF A MORE ORGANIZED LINE CAN DEVELOP...THEN GIVEN STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS A GREATER THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS WOULD EXIST AND A WW MAY BE REQUIRED. ..CROSBIE.. 07/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...HUN... 35148758 36038793 36418661 36898502 36938441 37188282 36478176 35788281 35488506 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 12 18:42:38 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 12 Jul 2004 13:42:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407121843.i6CIh0129548@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 121842 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121841 NJZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-PAZ000-NCZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-122045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1632 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0141 PM CDT MON JUL 12 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN PA/FAR SRN NJ...MUCH OF MD/DE...CENTRAL/ERN VA SWD INTO CENTRAL NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 121841Z - 122045Z ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP/INTENSIFY ALONG LEE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NCENTRAL VA INTO CENTRAL NC. STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW WILL EXIST OVER VA/SERN PA/SRN NJ AND MD/DE...WHERE ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE. FARTHER SOUTH...MORE PULSE SEVERE IS ANTICIPATED WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT. THE OVERALL ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT APPEARS MARGINAL...BUT THE AREA WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW/S. LATEST VWP DATA SUGGESTS ABOUT 20-25 KTS OF MID LEVEL FLOW SPREADING EWD INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS. THE STRONGEST FLOW SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL/NRN PARTS OF THE REGION. 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A LEE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NCENTRAL VA/WRN MD SWD INTO THE PIEDMONT OF NC. A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM A LOW OVER SCENTRAL PA SEWD INTO NERN MD AND CENTRAL DE AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE SLOWLY NWD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO REMAIN ANCHORED ON THE BOUNDARY AND GIVEN MODEST LOW LEVEL SHEAR /10-15 KTS OF 0-1 KM PER DOVER VWP/ MAY SUPPORT BRIEF TORNADOES. FURTHER SOUTHWEST...CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES EAST AWAY FROM LEE TROUGH OVER WRN PORTIONS OF WRN VA/NC INTO CENTRAL VA/NC. OVERALL SHEAR PROFILES WILL REMAIN MARGINAL FOR SUPERCELLS AND LARGE HAIL...ON THE ORDER OF 25-30 KTS. HOWEVER MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. ..CROSBIE.. 07/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RAH...ILM...RNK...GSP... 35718126 37167969 38237878 39277808 40057743 40187641 39467508 38747518 37047633 35957776 34667912 35278129 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 12 19:05:14 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 12 Jul 2004 14:05:14 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407121905.i6CJ5Z107215@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 121904 SWOMCD SPC MCD 121904 SDZ000-NEZ000-122100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1633 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0204 PM CDT MON JUL 12 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME NRN NEB... SCNTRL SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 611... VALID 121904Z - 122100Z ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS ARE BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL WATCHES MAY BE NEEDED OVER PORTIONS OF SD AND PERHAPS NRN NEB IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A WELL-DEFINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS SERN SD INTERSECTS A STRONG THERMALLY INDUCED SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH OVER SCNTRL SD EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG CONVERGENCE AND INTENSE HEATING INVOF THIS INTERSECTION CONTINUES TO PROMOTE ISOLD TSTM DEVELOPMENT NORTH OF 9V9. ADDITIONAL STRONG AND OCCASIONALLY SEVERE STORMS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING ACROSS PARTS OF NRN AND ERN SD OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WITHIN STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. STRONG CAP/CONVECTIVE INHIBITION TO THE SOUTH OF WW 611 IS CONTINUING TO SUPPRESS MORE VIGOROUS DEVELOPMENT WITHIN HIGHLY UNSTABLE AND STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS TO WHETHER THE CAP ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA CAN BE OVERCOME THROUGH HEATING AND WEAK BACKGROUND FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER WAVE PASSING BY TO THE NORTH. NEW STORM INITIATION CONTINUES TO BE MOST LIKELY FROM THE TROUGH/LOW ACROSS EXTREME NCNTRL NEB ENEWD ACROSS THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN SERN SD OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. PERSISTENT MESOSCALE FORCING NEAR THESE FEATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO OVERCOME STRONG INHIBITION. CELLS TRACKING ALONG OR NEAR THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SHOULD ACQUIRE ROTATION GIVEN HIGH VALUES OF SRH AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR. IN ADDITION TO VERY LARGE HAIL...A TORNADO AND HIGH WIND THREAT MAY ALSO DEVELOP GIVEN VOLATILE ENVIRONMENT. ..CARBIN.. 07/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...UNR... 42819809 42830022 43340079 44149969 44099651 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 12 21:49:10 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 12 Jul 2004 16:49:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407122149.i6CLnd114782@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 122148 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122148 SCZ000-GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-130015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1634 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0448 PM CDT MON JUL 12 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SRN AL...SRN/ERN GA AND THE PIEDMONT OF SC CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 122148Z - 130015Z CONVECTIVE LINE WILL MOVE SWD AROUND 20 KTS POSING A CONTINUED THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS INTO CENTRAL/SRN AL AND SRN/ERN GA. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE NEWD INTO CENTRAL SC WHEN OUTFLOW INTERACTS WITH ONGOING STRONG CONVECTION. STRONGEST STORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN CONVECTIVE LINE EXTENDING FROM ECENTRAL GA INTO CENTRAL AL WILL MOVE SWD INTO SRN AL AND SRN GA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AHEAD OF WHERE A COLD POOL WAS INTENSIFYING...THE MOST ORGANIZED PORTION OF THE LINE WILL MOVE SWD FROM THE BHM AREA TOWARDS MGM THROUGH 00Z. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM 8.5-9 DEG C/KM AND MODERATE INSTABILITY AXIS WITH MLCAPES FROM 2000-2500 J/KG WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED ISOLATED SEVERE WIND THREAT. ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOPING OVER FAR SRN GA AND CENTRAL SC MAY ALSO POSE AN ISOLATED SEVERE WIND THREAT WHERE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR WET MICROBURSTS. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE WHEN MAIN SWD MOVING CONVECTIVE LINE INTERACTS WITH ONGOING STRONG STORMS IN THESE AREAS. ..CROSBIE.. 07/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB... 30988586 31118759 32578786 33138779 33388754 32878605 32728510 33408300 34468092 34147980 31728135 30928479 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 12 22:42:23 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 12 Jul 2004 17:42:23 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407122242.i6CMgh101644@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 122241 SWOMCD SPC MCD 122241 IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-130045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1635 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0541 PM CDT MON JUL 12 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SE SD...NE NEB...NW IA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 612... VALID 122241Z - 130045Z CONTINUE WW. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL NEBRASKA FOR POSSIBILITY OF INCREASING SEVERE THREAT. INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES...WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN COVERAGE... JUST EAST OF WEAK SURFACE LOW NEAR O'NEILL NEB. THIS IS BEING SUPPORTED BY STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME ASSOCIATED WITH VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW BEGINNING TO DIG ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. STRONGER LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS ALSO FOCUSED ACROSS THIS REGION...AND THIS SHOULD INCREASE ON NOSE OF NOCTURNALLY STRENGTHENING CENTRAL PLAINS SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET BY THE 02-03Z TIME FRAME. UNTIL UPSCALE EVOLUTION INTO MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OCCURS LATER THIS EVENING...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO...WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE IS NOW UP TO AROUND 4000 J/KG...AND DESPITE RELATIVE WEAK LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW...VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT BENEATH STRENGTHENING NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ARE CONTRIBUTING TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS ALSO BEEN APPARENT SOUTHWESTWARD FROM LOW ALONG LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS/SURFACE TROUGH INTO AREAS WEST OF BROKEN BOW/NORTHEAST OF NORTH PLATTE. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM MAY EVENTUALLY DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...ACTIVITY ACROSS THIS AREA SHOULD BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED DUE TO STRONG CAP...WHICH WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER WITH ONSET OF RADIATIONAL COOLING AROUND SUNSET. ..KERR.. 07/12/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF... 41360057 41769984 42099916 42509906 42989873 42959784 42679685 42289619 41839638 41579693 41549745 41539815 41309885 41039969 40990025 41130056 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 13 00:46:12 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 12 Jul 2004 19:46:12 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407130046.i6D0kX108423@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 130045 SWOMCD SPC MCD 130045 NEZ000-130245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1636 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0745 PM CDT MON JUL 12 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN NEB AND WRN IA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 613... VALID 130045Z - 130245Z CONTINUE WW. VERY LARGE INTENSE CELL CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DEVELOP SOUTHWARD ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA FED BY INFLOW OF EXTREMELY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH CAPE IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG. ACTIVITY SHOULD APPROACH THE GRAND ISLAND AREA BY 02Z...BUT MAY STALL JUST TO THE NORTH OF CITY...WHERE FORCING ON NOSE OF STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BECOME FOCUSED. THIS SOUTHERLY JET APPEARS LIKELY TO INCREASE TO AROUND 35 KT THIS EVENING...AND FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ABOVE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. MID-LEVEL INHIBITION EVIDENT IN 00Z SOUNDING FROM OMAHA IS A CONCERN...BUT EVOLUTION OF SEVERE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM STILL APPEARS POSSIBLE. SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE STRONG BENEATH MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW...AND THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT LOOKS SUPPORTIVE OF DOWNBURSTS AND EVOLUTION OF STRONG SURFACE COLD POOL NEAR/NORTH THROUGH NORTHEAST OF GRAND ISLAND THROUGH 02-04Z TIME FRAME. ..KERR.. 07/13/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF... 41939879 42119725 41919671 41409641 40799651 40819765 40869837 41259908 41729896 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 13 02:20:48 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 12 Jul 2004 21:20:48 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407130221.i6D2L7105198@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 130220 SWOMCD SPC MCD 130219 MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-130415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1637 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0919 PM CDT MON JUL 12 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SE ND/ERN SD/WRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 130219Z - 130415Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF INCREASING SEVERE THREAT. WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED WITHIN NEXT HOUR OR SO. SCATTERED NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. THIS APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING IN FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME...ON EASTERN PERIPHERY OF ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WHICH HAS ADVECTED OFF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS. INITIATION APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE DIGGING ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS...AND PROGGED TO CONTINUE TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVERNIGHT. GIVEN STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT...STRONGLY SHEARED CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LACK OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL JET AND FOCUS FOR LARGER-SCALE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER MAY LIMIT EXTENT OF SEVERE THREAT...HOWEVER. ..KERR.. 07/13/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...DMX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS... 46189769 47309634 47769582 48239336 47449253 44999333 42899360 42759576 43229735 43909927 44760074 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 13 04:20:20 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 12 Jul 2004 23:20:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407130420.i6D4Ki108200@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 130419 SWOMCD SPC MCD 130419 MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-130615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1638 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1119 PM CDT MON JUL 12 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN NEB/SW IA/NW MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 614...615... VALID 130419Z - 130615Z TORNADO WW 614 MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE. CONTINUE REMAINING VALID PORTION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WW 615. AREAS OF NORTHWEST MISSOURI TO THE SOUTHEAST OF 615 ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL WW. DUE TO BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING...INCREASING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION BENEATH MID-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE IS SUPPRESSING NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER...SOUTH OF THE GRAND ISLAND AREA. INHIBITION APPEARS WEAKER FROM THE MID INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...ALONG MOISTURE AXIS REFLECTED BY MID/UPPER 70S DEW POINTS IN LATEST SURFACE ANALYSES. THUS...CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY TO BE SLOWEST TO DIMINISH IN THE VICINITY OF THE RIVER BETWEEN OMAHA NEB AND ST. JOSEPH MO. WHILE VIGOROUS LEAD CELL...NOW OVER SOUTHWEST IOWA... MAY WEAKEN AS IT PROGRESSES INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI...NORTHEAST OF ST. JOSEPH...BY 05Z...NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE WITHIN NEXT FEW HOURS. 20 TO 25 KT LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS APPEARS LIKELY TO ENHANCE ISENTROPIC ASCENT ABOVE COLD POOL NEAR/SOUTH OF THE OMAHA AREA...WHERE CAPE REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS WITH LARGE HAIL. ..KERR.. 07/13/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID... 41699609 41439441 40509354 39889391 39719519 40009676 39979815 40389905 41019773 41639700 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 13 04:53:02 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 12 Jul 2004 23:53:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407130453.i6D4rM117457@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 130452 SWOMCD SPC MCD 130452 MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-130545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1639 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1152 PM CDT MON JUL 12 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SE SD...NW IA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 613... VALID 130452Z - 130545Z NEW SEVERE WW MAY BE NEEDED BY CURRENT 06Z EXPIRATION. WEAK NEW SURFACE LOW HAS DEVELOPED IN SURFACE TROUGH TO THE WEST OF SIOUX FALLS. THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER AREA TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. FAVORABLE LARGE-SCALE FORCING NEAR/EAST OF LOW HAS BECOME FOCUS FOR INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...AND SHOULD SLOWLY DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD WITH LOW OVERNIGHT. CONVECTION WILL BE SLOW TO PROGRESS OUT OF SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA/NORTHWEST IOWA...IN ENVIRONMENT WITH LARGE CAPE FOR PARCELS LIFTED ABOVE NEAR SURFACE INVERSION LAYER. ..KERR.. 07/13/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX... 43799730 44049614 43809532 43549496 42679560 42519591 42419618 42529667 42759747 43359773 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 13 08:36:23 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 13 Jul 2004 03:36:23 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407130836.i6D8af115930@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 130836 SWOMCD SPC MCD 130835 WIZ000-MNZ000-130930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1640 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0335 AM CDT TUE JUL 13 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL MN...NWRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 616...618... VALID 130835Z - 130930Z ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 616 WILL EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED... ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER WCNTRL MN WITHIN SUSTAINED WARM ADVECTION ZONE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SERN QUARTER OF THE WW...BUT NOT BEFORE THE WATCH EXPIRES. EVEN SO...MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED AT OR BELOW SEVERE LEVELS. UNLESS THIS CONVECTION INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY WW WILL NOT BE REISSUED. A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF CONVECTION HAS ALSO OCCURRED OVER NERN MN...JUST SOUTH OF THE DLH AREA. THIS ACTIVITY MAY STRUGGLE TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES EWD INTO A PROGRESSIVELY MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. ..DARROW.. 07/13/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF... 44949595 46199522 46339128 45209118 44349426 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 13 09:22:55 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 13 Jul 2004 04:22:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407130923.i6D9NA131344@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 130922 SWOMCD SPC MCD 130921 IAZ000-WIZ000-MNZ000-131015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1641 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0421 AM CDT TUE JUL 13 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MN...SWRN WI...ERN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 617... VALID 130921Z - 131015Z ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED DOWNSTREAM OF CURRENT WATCH... WLY LLJ APPEARS TO BE SHIFTING ACROSS IA TOWARD NWRN IL AS UPPER TROUGH DROPS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. THIS WILL UNDOUBTEDLY RESULT IN AN EWD SHIFT TO ONGOING ACTIVITY AS ASCENT DUE TO WARM ADVECTION SPREADS DOWNSTREAM. CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST MUCH OF THIS CONVECTION MAY REMAIN MARGINALLY SEVERE WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLATED WIND GUST/HAIL AS IT SPREADS OUT OF WW. ..DARROW.. 07/13/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX... 41339201 43559417 44029236 43509125 41869031 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 13 15:09:17 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 13 Jul 2004 10:09:17 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407131509.i6DF9Y129718@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 131509 SWOMCD SPC MCD 131508 MIZ000-WIZ000-131715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1642 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1008 AM CDT TUE JUL 13 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN WI....U.P. OF MI...NRN LOWER MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 131508Z - 131715Z POTENTIAL FOR STRONG AND SEVERE TSTMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN GREAT LAKES REGION BY AFTERNOON. WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED OVER PORTIONS OF WI AND MI. LATEST ANALYSIS PLACES COLD FRONT FROM WRN LS SWD ACROSS NWRN WI AND THEN SWWD ACROSS IA. A SMALL CLUSTER OF PREFRONTAL CONVECTION...AND ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW/COLD POOL...WAS TRACKING EAST TOWARD MIDDLE SECTIONS OF THE U.P. OF MI. WHILE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK...PRONOUNCED DIFFLUENCE WITHIN EXIT REGION OF 65-70KT MID LEVEL JET STREAK WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADING ATOP A STEADILY DESTABILIZING AIRMASS. EXPECT TSTM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TO INCREASE AS THIS PROCESS UNFOLDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ISOLD CELLS APPEAR TO BE STRENGTHENING ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER MARQUETTE AND DICKINSON COUNTIES IN THE U.P. OF MI...AS WELL AS THE OUTFLOW/FRONT INTERSECTION NEAR ONEIDA AND FOREST COUNTIES IN NRN WI. WITH SOME CAPPING LIKELY REMAINING ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS POINT...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THE ONGOING STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE...OR WHETHER ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL INITIATE ALONG THE FRONT IN ANOTHER FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...WATCHES CAN BE ANTICIPATED GIVEN STRENGTH OF FORCING...INSTABILITY... AND SHEAR OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. ..CARBIN.. 07/13/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...APX...MQT...GRB... 44338425 44298872 45568986 46598692 46598410 44888332 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 13 15:33:29 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 13 Jul 2004 10:33:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407131533.i6DFXk108145@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 131533 SWOMCD SPC MCD 131532 INZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-131730- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1643 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1032 AM CDT TUE JUL 13 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IA...NRN IL...NWRN IND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 131532Z - 131730Z RAPID TSTM DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED OVER NWRN IL OVER THE LAST HALF HOUR WITH AN ISOLD SUPERCELL LOCATED OVER JO DAVIESS COUNTY. VOLATILE ENVIRONMENT FROM ERN IA INTO NRN IL AND NWRN IND SUGGESTS A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED SHORTLY. ACTIVITY APPEARS TO HAVE INITIATED ALONG WEAK PREFRONTAL CONFLUENCE AXIS WHICH RUNS FROM ERN IA INTO NWRN IL AND SRN WI. IN ADDITION SMALL SCALE MCV WAS MOVING EAST ACROSS IA IN THE WAKE OF LATE DAY CONVECTION ON MONDAY. THESE FACTORS COUPLED WITH CONTINUING AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION ALONG AND EAST OF THE COLD FRONT WILL INCREASINGLY SUPPORT FURTHER VIGOROUS TSTM DEVELOPMENT INTO THE AFTERNOON. DVN VWP DATA WAS SHOWING STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR THROUGH THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE AND SRH VALUES SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES. WATCHES WILL BE NEEDED SHORTLY. ..CARBIN.. 07/13/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IND...LOT...ILX...DVN...ARX... 40918965 41459212 42779163 41358706 40218739 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 13 18:19:43 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 13 Jul 2004 13:19:43 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407131820.i6DIK0120982@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 131819 SWOMCD SPC MCD 131819 WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-132015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1644 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0119 PM CDT TUE JUL 13 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 131819Z - 132015Z TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST ACROSS PARTS OF SRN AND SERN WI LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS TORNADOES. A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE REGION IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS AND VERY MOIST AIRMASS HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG TO LOCALLY EXTREME INSTABILITY ACROSS SRN WI THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST MODEL AND OBSERVED SOUNDING DATA WERE INDICATING MLCAPE VALUES AS HIGH AS 3500 J/KG THUS SETTING THE STAGE FOR INTENSE AND POTENTIALLY EXPLOSIVE TSTM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CURRENTLY... MODEST COLD FRONT ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG LOW THROUGH MID LEVEL WLY FLOW WAS TRACKING ESE ACROSS PARTS OF WCNTRL WI. IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT...A WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS WAS ANALYZED IN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS BISECTING SRN WI FROM SW TO NE. ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO OF HEATING COUPLED WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT SHOULD PROMOTE VIGOROUS TSTM DEVELOPMENT. PRIMARILY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS TORNADOES. ACTIVITY MAY THEN TEND TO LINE UP ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT LATER TODAY WITH WIND THREAT SPREADING EAST ACROSS SRN LM. ..CARBIN.. 07/13/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DVN...ARX... 42518782 42509064 43249096 44228976 44148742 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 13 18:39:33 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 13 Jul 2004 13:39:33 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407131839.i6DIdo130839@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 131839 SWOMCD SPC MCD 131839 ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-131945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1645 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0139 PM CDT TUE JUL 13 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN IL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 619... VALID 131839Z - 131945Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING ON THE OUTFLOW FROM THE INTENSE TORNADIC SUPERCELL NOW MOVING SEWD THRU LA SALLE COUNTY. THESE NEW STORMS IN SRN LEE AND NRN BUREAU COUNTY ARE IN A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO BECOME POTENTIALLY TORNADIC SUPERCELLS AS WELL. THE AIR MASS FEEDING THE STORMS FROM THE WEST IS EXTREMELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG ALONG WITH 30-40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. ..HALES.. 07/13/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX... 40348763 40329074 42549185 42558848 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 13 19:11:41 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 13 Jul 2004 14:11:41 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407131911.i6DJBw112365@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 131910 SWOMCD SPC MCD 131910 MIZ000-WIZ000-132115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1646 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0210 PM CDT TUE JUL 13 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN WI AND U.P. OF MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 620... VALID 131910Z - 132115Z COLD FRONT NOW ENTERING WRN EDGE OF WW 620 WITH VERY FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FOR STRONG ASCENT ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. NUMEROUS CELLULAR STORMS ARE INCREASINGLY RAPIDLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AN AXIS OF GREATER PREFRONTAL INSTABILITY WAS SITUATED FROM GRB AREA NNEWD INTO THE U.P. OF MI. ENVIRONMENT WITHIN THIS AXIS WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY BE ENHANCED AS CELLS APPROACH THE WRN SHORE OF GREEN BAY WHERE WEAK LOW LEVEL SELY FLOW WAS RESULTING IN GREATER 0-1KM SRH IN THE 100-150 M2/S2 RANGE. ..CARBIN.. 07/13/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...APX...GRR...MQT...GRB...ARX... 44098587 44079028 46428764 46428300 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 13 19:31:36 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 13 Jul 2004 14:31:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407131931.i6DJVs121660@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 131931 SWOMCD SPC MCD 131930 INZ000-ILZ000-132130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1647 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0230 PM CDT TUE JUL 13 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IL AND WRN/CNTRL IND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 131930Z - 132130Z TSTM POTENTIAL INCREASINGLY RAPIDLY ALONG INTENSE INSTABILITY GRADIENT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. A WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY TO REPLACE TORNADO WATCH 619 AND EXTEND ACROSS PARTS OF ERN IL AND CNTRL IND. CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE INCREASING IN COVERAGE ON THE NOSE OF DIFFLUENT MID LEVEL JET STREAK DEVELOPING SEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY. EXTREME INSTABILITY FEEDING INTO THE REGION OF FAVORABLE ASCENT WILL FUEL VIGOROUS TSTMS INTO THE EVENING. SUPERCELLULAR ACTIVITY NOW MOVING SEWD FROM NRN IL WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS TORNADOES. FARTHER EAST...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE CURRENTLY WEAKER...BUT SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE MID LEVEL WIND MAX AND UPPER TROUGH DIG SEWD TOWARD THE MIDWEST. IL STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY MERGE INTO A SEVERE MCS WITH WIND AND HAIL THREAT SPREADING SSEWD ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT AND INTO SRN PARTS OF IND BY EVENING. ..CARBIN.. 07/13/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX... 40808755 41098587 39298538 38758838 40558887 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 13 20:28:24 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 13 Jul 2004 15:28:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407132028.i6DKSs116669@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 132028 SWOMCD SPC MCD 132027 NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-132300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1648 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0327 PM CDT TUE JUL 13 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN CO...SW NEB...SE WY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 132027Z - 132300Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS NERN CO...SW NEB...AND SE WY. A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE REGION WITHIN 2 HOURS. AIRMASS IS BECOMING VERY UNSTABLE ACROSS THE REGION AS MLCAPE VALUES EXCEED 2500 J/KG FROM THE SOUTHERN NEB PANHANDLE SOUTHEASTWARD TO SW NEB. THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE INITIATED ON THE LARAMIE MOUNTAINS...AND ADDITIONAL CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THESE STORMS...WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION. GIVEN THE VERY TO EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES APPROACHING 30 KNOTS...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THIS ENVIRONMENT ARE LIKELY TO RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. ..LEVIT.. 07/13/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS... 42360490 41690533 40870488 40180271 40080117 40390035 40820019 41440075 42000199 42260325 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 13 21:51:28 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 13 Jul 2004 16:51:28 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407132151.i6DLpi121604@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 132151 SWOMCD SPC MCD 132150 SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-132345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1649 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0450 PM CDT TUE JUL 13 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN WY...SERN MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 132150Z - 132345Z ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST WY DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. VISIBLE SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BIG HORN MTNS IN SHERIDAN/JOHNSON COUNTIES WY. THIS AREA IS BENEATH FLAT UPPER RIDGE AXIS...BUT WITHIN MODERATELY STRONG WESTERLY MID LEVEL WINDS /30-35 KNOTS AT 500MB/. SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS IN THIS REGION AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW/MID 50S ARE PROVIDING A FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC AND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR ORGANIZED/SUPERCELL STORMS. AREAL COVERAGE AND EASTWARD EXTENT OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THIS AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AND POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE. ..HART.. 07/13/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW... 44530713 45350690 45430536 45190465 44810413 43830405 43080434 43210627 43540693 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 13 22:02:40 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 13 Jul 2004 17:02:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407132202.i6DM2u126097@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 132201 SWOMCD SPC MCD 132200 KYZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-140000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1650 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0500 PM CDT TUE JUL 13 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IL...SRN IN...NRN AND CNTRL KY CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 623... VALID 132200Z - 140000Z NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. DAMAGING WIND THREAT IS INCREASING. COLD POOLS GENERATED BY EARLIER SUPERCELLS HAVE MERGED INTO LARGE STRONG COLD POOL...WEST OF INDIANAPOLIS INTO AREAS NORTHEAST OF SPRINGFIELD IL. THIS FEATURE IS SURGING SOUTHEASTWARD AT AROUND 40 KT...AND WILL LIKELY BE MAINTAINED AS STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION FIELD/ZONE OF STEEPER ISENTROPIC ASCENT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT INTENSE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN. MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE IN SOURCE REGION FOR PARCELS COMPRISING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IS VERY LARGE...IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG...AND RISK OF LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE IN STRONGER UPDRAFTS. HOWEVER...PRIMARY THREAT NOW APPEARS TO BE BROADER SCALE DAMAGING WIND EVENT ASSOCIATED WITH GUST FRONT...WHICH WILL SURGE THROUGH THE LOUISVILLE KY AREA BY 14/00Z. VERY STRONG NORTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER JET...100+ KT AT 250 MB ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING SHORT WAVE TROUGH...IS PROGGED TO NOSE INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING. THIS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO ACCELERATION OF MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...SUPPORTING RISK OF VERY STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 65 KT ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS EVENING. ..KERR.. 07/13/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX... 39458599 39588554 39188486 38758411 38438360 38168321 37328342 36918485 37128587 37598720 37848806 38318898 38828940 39408978 39918991 39958914 39418812 39188732 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 13 22:56:50 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 13 Jul 2004 17:56:50 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407132257.i6DMvJ113856@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 132256 SWOMCD SPC MCD 132255 NMZ000-AZZ000-140100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1651 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0555 PM CDT TUE JUL 13 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/CNTRL AZ/SWRN NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 132255Z - 140100Z ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS HAVE TAKEN SOME TIME IN DEVELOPING THIS AFTN...BUT RECENT SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW INTENSIFYING STORMS ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM...AS WELL AS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SE AZ. MODIFYING THE 18Z OBSERVED TUCSON SOUNDING WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS OF 100/61 YIELDS MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 2500-3000 J/KG. TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE ON THE ORDER OF 35-45 DEGREES COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AROUND 8.0 C/KM...SO STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH A FEW STORMS. IN ADDITION...MIDLEVEL ELY FLOW OF AROUND 20 KT ALSO NOTED ON SOUNDING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SOME HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR MIXING DOWN TO THE SFC COMBINED WITH ACCELERATION OF DOWNBURST WINDS. 18Z AND OBSERVED FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE AROUND 1-1.5 INCHES IN SOME CASES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SRN AZ. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH SLOW MOVING STORMS. HIGHER DEWPOINTS NEAR 60 MAY HELP STORMS MOVE INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS INCLUDING THE PHOENIX METRO...SO A WW MAY BE NEEDED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ..TAYLOR.. 07/13/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...TWC...FGZ...PSR... 31391072 32631300 35451322 36061181 35380914 33900798 32430770 31850831 31330827 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 13 23:09:17 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 13 Jul 2004 18:09:17 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407132309.i6DN9X118033@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 132309 SWOMCD SPC MCD 132308 MIZ000-140115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1652 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0608 PM CDT TUE JUL 13 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...LWR MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 622... VALID 132308Z - 140115Z CONTINUE REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW. FORCING IN EXIT REGION OF STRONG MID/UPPER JET...60+ KT AT 500 MB/90-100 KT AT 250 MB...APPEARS TO BE PROVIDING PRIMARY SUPPORT FOR VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE BAND NOW SPREADING INTO WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS IS PROGGED TO OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH THE 03-04Z TIME FRAME...AND WILL MAINTAIN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN MOIST...WEAKLY CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN...WITH CAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG... ONGOING STORMS SHOULD INTENSIFY. THOUGH WIND FIELDS/SHEAR PROFILES IN EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET ARE RATHER MODERATE...THERMODYNAMIC STRUCTURE APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF MORE ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE AS EVAPORATIVE COOLING NEAR HEAVY RAIN CONTRIBUTES TO SURFACE COLD POOL AND ASSOCIATED GUST FRONT. THUS...RISK FOR MORE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY INCREASE...AND POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS. ..KERR.. 07/13/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR... 42208317 41958486 41968577 42578591 43268580 44148507 44898434 45518433 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 13 23:35:01 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 13 Jul 2004 18:35:01 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407132335.i6DNZG125993@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 132334 SWOMCD SPC MCD 132334 MOZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-140130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1653 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0634 PM CDT TUE JUL 13 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CNTRL MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 132334Z - 140130Z ...AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A WW... CONVECTIVE CLUSTER N/NE OF KANSAS CITY IS MOVING INTO AN AIRMASS WHICH IS EXTREMELY UNSTABLE...CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE VALUES OF 3500-4000+ J/KG. CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS RELATIVELY WEAK AND WITH MODERATE NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SE AROUND 20 KT. LATEST WV IMAGERY SUGGESTS SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA NOW...SO THIS WILL ONLY HELP ONGOING CONVECTION SUSTAIN ITSELF. TSTM NEAR STJ HAS INTENSIFIED RECENTLY...AND GIVEN SIMILAR TRENDS...A WW MAY BE NEEDED SHORTLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN/CNTRL MO. ..TAYLOR.. 07/13/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX... 37189121 38619459 40049532 40589383 40479145 38939076 37658993 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 14 00:15:46 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 13 Jul 2004 19:15:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407140016.i6E0G1106303@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 140015 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140015 NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-140145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1654 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0715 PM CDT TUE JUL 13 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN WY/WRN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 624... VALID 140015Z - 140145Z LATEST MESOANALYSIS PLACES FRONT N OF A CASPER/CHEYENNE/MCCOOK LINE. STORMS ON THE N SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY ARE STRUGGLING DESPITE THE FACT THEY ARE DEVELOPING IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 3000 J/KG. STORMS ARE FORMING ON THE NRN EDGE OF THE RIDGE AXIS...AND PERHAPS ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE IS INHIBITING THEM. ALSO...00Z LBF SOUNDING STILL SHOWS SOME AMOUNT OF CAPPING WITH WARM LAYER AROUND 750MB. IF STORMS COULD BECOME ORGANIZED...RECENT PROFILER DATA FROM MEDICINE BOW SHOW AROUND 40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. ..TAYLOR.. 07/14/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...BOU...CYS... 40520125 40910575 43120578 42650133 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 14 00:37:52 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 13 Jul 2004 19:37:52 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407140038.i6E0c8113669@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 140037 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140036 VAZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-140230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1655 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0736 PM CDT TUE JUL 13 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...KY...TN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 623...625... VALID 140036Z - 140230Z REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 623 WILL BE CANCELLED SHORTLY. CONTINUE REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 625. NEW WW WILL BE NEEDED ACROSS MUCH OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE AS DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. LARGE SEVERE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO EVOLVE ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...WITH ASSOCIATED STRONG SURFACE COLD POOL/ MESO HIGH NOW SURGING SOUTH OF THE EVANSVILLE/LOUISVILLE AREAS INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY AT AROUND 40 KT. AT THIS RATE...GUST FRONT LIKELY WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE BORDER INTO THE NASHVILLE AREA DURING THE 02-03Z TIME FRAME. ALTHOUGH SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEGUN TO DROP OFF A BIT FROM PEAK HEATING AHEAD OF CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...STRUCTURE OF THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WITH DRY MID-LEVELS/STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WARM MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN QUITE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG GUST FRONT DEEP INTO THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY. WEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME INTO WESTERN FLANK OF COLD POOL WILL MAINTAIN FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...AND CAPE OF 2000 TO 4000 J/KG WITH HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR WILL FAVOR INTENSE UPDRAFTS WITH SOME HAIL...AND LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAIN TOTALS IN TRAINING CELLS. ..KERR.. 07/14/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG... 38538826 37718727 37408628 37998564 38458495 38668447 38508386 37688321 36628362 36078416 35628512 35298612 35418705 35848812 36718824 38458871 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 14 02:52:18 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 13 Jul 2004 21:52:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407140252.i6E2qX119990@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 140251 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140251 SDZ000-NEZ000-WYZ000-140415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1657 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0951 PM CDT TUE JUL 13 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN WY/SW SD/WRN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 624... VALID 140251Z - 140415Z WW 624 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 03Z. ALTHOUGH ISOLD SEVERE THREAT MAY PERSIST...PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT ADDITIONAL WW WILL NOT BE NEEDED NE/E OF WW 624. UPSLOPE REGIME CONTINUES TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE WRN HIGH PLAINS OF WY INTO SW SD/NRN NEB PANHANDLE. STRONGEST ACTIVITY REMAINS ON NRN PERIPHERY OF WW 624 EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH MODEST E/SE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BENEATH 30 KT MID LEVEL WLY FLOW SUPPORTING ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS ALONG NRN EDGE OF INSTABILITY AXIS. ALTHOUGH FORWARD PROPAGATION OF TSTM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SW SD/NEB PANHANDLE THIS EVENING OWING TO UPSLOPE/STRONGLY SHEARED REGIME...BARRING ORGANIZED COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT...THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS OWING TO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ..GUYER.. 07/14/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS... 42800461 44350481 44740421 44730321 44410111 42930057 41840083 42150281 42230403 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 14 03:22:35 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 13 Jul 2004 22:22:35 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407140322.i6E3Mo129173@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 140322 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140321 TNZ000-VAZ000-KYZ000-NCZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-140515- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1658 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1021 PM CDT TUE JUL 13 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SE KY...TN..NRN AL...NRN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 625...627... VALID 140321Z - 140515Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED. NEW WW MAY NOT BE NEEDED SOUTH OF WW 627. OTHERWISE...CONTINUE REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 625 AND 627. STRONG SURFACE COLD POOL/MESO HIGH CONTINUES TO SURGE SOUTHWARD ACROSS MIDDLE/EASTERN TENNESSEE. IN SLIGHTLY COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG GUST FRONT AND ABOVE COLD POOL HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN...AND THESE TRENDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS SYSTEM PROGRESSES SOUTH OF LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS INTO THE NORTHERN GULF STATES...WHERE LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT AS STEEP/CAPE NOT AS STRONG. AS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...SURFACE COLD POOL WILL EVENTUALLY FOLLOW SUITE...AND POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY WILL DECREASE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE STILL LIKELY ALONG LEADING EDGE OF OUTFLOW ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS...POSSIBLY INTO THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR BETWEEN ATLANTA/BIRMINGHAM BY 06Z. THREAT APPEARS MUCH LOWER IN COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER AFFECTED BY AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH OF I-20. ..KERR.. 07/14/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...PAH...MEG... 36488788 35818701 35458628 35598502 36008452 36478433 36868412 37348354 36808305 36528261 35668342 34848400 34278441 33848512 33798659 34328741 35348756 36188828 36788853 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 14 04:14:42 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 13 Jul 2004 23:14:42 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407140415.i6E4F4112349@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 140414 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140413 TNZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-140615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1659 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1113 PM CDT TUE JUL 13 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF LWR OH/TN VLYS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 140413Z - 140615Z CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF INCREASING SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...AT THE PRESENT TIME...NEW WWS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. VERY STRONG MID/UPPER JET STREAK CONTINUES TO DIG FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. AS SOUTHEASTWARD PROPAGATION CONTINUES INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN ON SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF LOWER GREAT LAKES LOW ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS. AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT...THIS HAS ALREADY SUPPORTED INCREASING SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...ON EASTERN PERIPHERY LOWER MID TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL RIDGE EXTENDING EAST SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE NORTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THIS IS ON WESTERN EDGE OF ENVIRONMENT AFFECTED BY LARGE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM NOW WEAKENING AS IT SPREADS INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS/NORTHERN GULF STATES. WHILE OVERTURNING ASSOCIATED WITH PRIOR CONVECTION APPEARS LIKELY TO MARGINALIZE ADDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT OVERNIGHT...SCATTERED STRONG STORMS WITH SOME HAIL APPEAR LIKELY TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING. NEWEST AND STRONGEST DEVELOPMENT THROUGH 08-09Z APPEARS LIKELY TO OCCUR FROM PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN ILLINOIS ACROSS WESTERN KENTUCKY INTO WESTERN/MIDDLE TENNESSEE...IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ..KERR.. 07/14/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...LMK...IWX...OHX...IND...HUN...PAH...LOT...ILX...MEG...LSX... 38748932 40088807 41038624 40818479 39548623 37988681 37098606 35618376 35138756 35988900 37548969 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 14 04:53:44 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 13 Jul 2004 23:53:44 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407140453.i6E4rx124268@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 140453 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140452 NEZ000-SDZ000-140615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1660 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1152 PM CDT TUE JUL 13 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NCNTRL NEB/FAR SRN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 140452Z - 140615Z ORGANIZING COLD POOL MAY SUPPORT MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT ACROSS NCNTRL NEB/FAR SRN SD INTO THE OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH NOT ANTICIPATED...TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. 0352Z SFC OB AT IEN /PINE RIDGE SD/ SAMPLED WLY GUSTS TO 37KTS IN WAKE OF CONVECTIVE CLUSTER ACROSS FAR NW NEB. LATEST /04Z/ SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS SEMI-ORGANIZED COLD POOL HAS DEVELOPED INVOF SW SD/NW NEB BORDER...WITH FORWARD PROPAGATION OF CONVECTIVE CLUSTER/COLD POOL EXPECTED TO CONTINUE E/SE AT 30-35 KTS ALONG NRN PERIPHERY OF INSTABILITY AXIS. SCENARIO MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR MARGINAL SEVERE INTO NCNTRL NEB/FAR SCNTRL SD INTO THE OVERNIGHT. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES /IN EXCESS OF 8.0 C/KM PER 00Z LBF SOUNDING/ WOULD SUGGEST SEVERE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS. ALTHOUGH MARGINALLY SEVERE GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE...SURFACE BASED INHIBITION WILL TEND TO BE PROHIBITIVE FACTOR FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS REACHING THE SFC. ..GUYER.. 07/14/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...UNR... 43310160 43269928 42799810 41499832 41449943 41670140 42110220 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 14 10:18:28 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 14 Jul 2004 05:18:28 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407141018.i6EAIn115572@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 141018 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141017 TNZ000-KYZ000-141115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1661 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0517 AM CDT WED JUL 14 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN KY...TN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 141017Z - 141115Z ...WW NOT ANTICIPATED FOR INCREASING CONVECTION OVER KY/NRN TN... PERSISTENT NWLY WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPEARS TO BE AIDING RECENT INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORMS ATOP CONVECTIVE COLD BUBBLE HIGH. OF SOME CONCERN IS THE ARCING MCS-TYPE STRUCTURE THAT HAS EVOLVED FROM OHIO COUNTY KY...SWWD INTO LYON COUNTY KY. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE SPREADING SEWD ALONG APPARENT PREDISPOSED CONVECTIVE ZONE...PER ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING INTO NRN TN WELL AHEAD OF MORE ORGANIZED COMPLEX. GIVEN THE ELEVATED NATURE OF THIS ACTIVITY IT APPEARS THE DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL MAY BE LIMITED WITH THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT LIKELY MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. ..DARROW.. 07/14/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX... 37378619 36248400 35548439 35778567 36478724 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 14 12:36:09 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 14 Jul 2004 07:36:09 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407141236.i6ECaN123042@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 141235 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141235 NCZ000-SCZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-141400- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1662 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0735 AM CDT WED JUL 14 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TN...WRN NC...NRN SC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 141235Z - 141400Z ...THUNDERSTORMS MAY INCREASE IN INTENSITY LATER THIS MORNING ACROSS THE WRN CAROLINAS... LONG LIVED COMPACT ELEVATED MCS CONTINUES ITS SEWD MOVEMENT ACROSS NRN TN TOWARD THE WRN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS SUFFICIENTLY ORGANIZED TO WITHSTAND CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION TOWARD A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS THAT EVENTUALLY ROOTS IN BOUNDARY LAYER BY LATE MORNING. STRONG SUNSHINE AHEAD OF THIS CLUSTER SUGGESTS STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL AID INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION. WW MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS MORNING TO INCLUDE AREAS DOWNSTREAM ACROSS WRN CAROLINAS. ..DARROW.. 07/14/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RNK...GSP...MRX...OHX... 36558421 36338282 36078162 35338150 34848237 35258455 35848511 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 14 16:07:25 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 14 Jul 2004 11:07:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407141607.i6EG7a109466@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 141606 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141606 PAZ000-MDZ000-141830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1663 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1106 AM CDT WED JUL 14 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL PA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 141606Z - 141830Z ISOLD TO WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL/WRN PA OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS. OVERALL ORGANIZED STORM COVERAGE IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT BASED ON SOMEWHAT MARGINAL SHEAR. HOWEVER...A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED OVER PARTS OF THE AREA. NARROW WARM SECTOR WAS DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL PA WITH LATEST MLCAPE ESTIMATED AROUND 1000 J/KG. MEANWHILE...UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WERE MAKING STEADY EWD PROGRESS ACROSS WRN PA WITH A TRAILING WIND SHIFT/CONVERGENCE AXIS EXTENDING FROM NERN OH INTO NWRN PA. TSTMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING ALONG THE POST FRONTAL WIND SHIFT LINE ACROSS NWRN PA OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS WITH VIL/REFLECTIVITY VALUES SLOWLY INCREASING. GIVEN MOIST AIRMASS AND MODEST INSTABILITY IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG LARGE SCALE FORCING AND SOMEWHAT MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 25-30KT...SITUATION APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW SUPERCELLS OR ORGANIZED MULTICELL STORMS. THIS POTENTIAL SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH A FEW HAIL AND/OR WIND REPORTS POSSIBLE. STORMS DEVELOPING EWD AND CROSSING THE WARM FRONT MAY ENCOUNTER MORE ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND ACQUIRE SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS. IF WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL BECOMES MORE CERTAIN...A WATCH WOULD BE NEEDED. ..CARBIN.. 07/14/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...PBZ... 39757928 40187976 40508022 40918050 41557969 41787925 41907880 41977830 41847729 41407647 40507607 39887617 39747700 39717841 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 14 16:20:14 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 14 Jul 2004 11:20:14 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407141620.i6EGKP115842@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 141619 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141618 MDZ000-VAZ000-PAZ000-WVZ000-NCZ000-141815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1664 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1118 AM CDT WED JUL 14 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...VA...ERN WV PNHDL...NRN MD...DC...NRN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 141618Z - 141815Z WATCHES WILL BE NEEDED SHORTLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND INTENSIFYING SHEAR PARAMETERS... COUPLED WITH STRONG LARGE SCALE FORCING FROM APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT...EXPECTED TO RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF VA/MD/DE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. INITIAL ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY BECOME SUPERCELLULAR AND POSE A THREAT OF HAIL AND ISOLD TORNADOES. CONVECTION SHOULD EVOLVE INTO LINE SEGMENTS ALONG THE FRONT AND AHEAD OF 50KT MID LEVEL WIND MAX AND SPREAD EAST WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS. ..CARBIN.. 07/14/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RAH...RNK... 36468133 36968122 37827973 38797894 39777849 39777782 38907728 38457718 38027717 37247739 36077964 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 14 16:20:14 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 14 Jul 2004 11:20:14 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407141620.i6EGKP115842@mail.goshen.edu> <<< No Message Collected >>> From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 14 17:05:55 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 14 Jul 2004 12:05:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407141706.i6EH68104620@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 141703 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141703 TNZ000-KYZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-141900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1665 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1203 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN KY...EXTREME SWRN VA...WRN NC...TN....NRN PORTIONS OF MS/AL/GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 141703Z - 141900Z TSTMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG AND PERHAPS BEHIND COLD FRONT SETTLING SEWD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WATCHES MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE REGION SHORTLY. WEAKLY CONVERGENT COLD FRONT WAS SETTLING SWD ACROSS WRN AND MIDDLE TN AND THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LIFT ALONG THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE MAINTAINED BY BROADLY DIFFLUENT MID LEVEL FLOW IN THE WAKE OF STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE OH VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGIONS. VERY STRONG INSTABILITY WILL FUEL INTENSE TSTM UPDRAFTS WITHIN DEEP NWLY FLOW REGIME. OBSERVED AND FORECAST SHEAR PARAMETERS WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS AND/OR BOWING LINE SEGMENTS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL POSSIBLE. ..CARBIN.. 07/14/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...PAH...MEG... 36168248 34688383 34188540 34898977 35548978 36438928 36908877 36798584 37258248  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 14 19:06:32 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 14 Jul 2004 14:06:32 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407141906.i6EJ6p126183@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 141906 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141905 NJZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-142100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1666 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0205 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN/SERN VA...ERN MD...DC...DE...SRN NJ CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 630... VALID 141905Z - 142100Z NUMEROUS SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE DC METRO AREA AND NRN CHESAPEAKE BAY AT THIS TIME. ENVIRONMENT EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES. TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY BE MAXIMIZED ALONG WARM FRONT MOVING ACROSS NRN CHESAPEAKE BAY AND THE DELMARVA PENINSULA AT THIS TIME. WITH COLD FRONT WILL WELL WEST OF THE AREA AND ABUNDANT UNTAPPED INSTABILITY RESIDING ACROSS CNTRL AND SERN VA...ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS IN LINES AND CLUSTERS SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THESE AREAS AS COLD FRONT MOVES EAST THROUGH LATE TODAY. ..CARBIN.. 07/14/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RNK... 36597606 36587943 39637785 39617431 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 14 19:18:04 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 14 Jul 2004 14:18:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407141918.i6EJIH131857@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 141917 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141916 NYZ000-PAZ000-142045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1667 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0216 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...S CNTRL NY CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 141916Z - 142045Z A MARGINAL SEVERE WIND THREAT IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS OVER PORTIONS OF S CNTRL NY. LEADING EDGE OF SQUALL LINE EXTENDS FROM ITH TO BGM AND IS MOVING EAST NORTHEAST AROUND 35 KTS. STORMS ARE MOVING OUT OF INSTABILITY AXIS INTO MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE VALUES AOB 500 J/KG. RECENT RADAR VELOCITY IMAGERY INDICATES AROUND 35 KTS OF FLOW WHICH WILL POSE A MARGINAL WIND THREAT. HOWEVER...SFC PRESSURE FALLS AHEAD OF THE LINE REFLECT THE LARGE SCALE LIFT ACROSS THE AREA. ADDITIONALLY...BGM VAD PROFILE SHOWS AROUND 35-40 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SO LINE WILL LIKELY REMAIN ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES EASTWARD. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ..LEVIT/TAYLOR.. 07/14/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM... 42867630 42547648 42047648 41597642 41517608 41517560 41497485 41867451 42417444 42857467 43077529 43047587 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 14 19:41:26 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 14 Jul 2004 14:41:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407141941.i6EJfd109064@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 141941 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141940 NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-142115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1668 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0240 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN PA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 631... VALID 141940Z - 142115Z INTENSE SUPERCELL STORM MOVING FROM ERN LEBANON INTO BRKS COUNTY IN SERN PA HAS HISTORY OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS CELL APPEARS TO BE INVOF WARM FRONTAL ZONE WHERE LOW LFC AND ENHANCED 0-1KM SRH WERE RESULTING IN VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY OVER YORK AND LANCASTER COUNTIES OF SERN PA MAY ALSO TRACK ACROSS OR ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND POSE A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS OR BRIEF TORNADOES. ALL THE ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST TOWARD THE DELAWARE RIVER OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS. ..CARBIN.. 07/14/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...CTP... 39797564 39787901 41507796 41477451 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 14 20:37:08 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 14 Jul 2004 15:37:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407142037.i6EKbQ100721@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 142036 SWOMCD SPC MCD 142036 AZZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-142200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1669 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0336 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NW AZ...SE NV CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 142036Z - 142200Z SOME PULSING STRONG STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN NW AZ OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. MONSOONAL MOISTURE HAS BEEN FLOWING INTO THE AREA WITH DEWPOINTS RAPIDLY INCREASING INTO THE 60S F AT LAS...AND MID 50S TO LOW 60S NOTED IN NW AZ. MLCAPE VALUES IN THE REGION ARE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG AND STORMS THAT INITIATE ALONG TERRAIN FEATURES WILL BECOME STRONG IN THIS ENVIRONMENT. GIVEN LARGE SURFACE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS...A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ADDITIONALLY...STEEP LAPSE RATES AS INDICATED ON 18Z FGZ SOUNDING SUGGEST A MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL THREAT. ..LEVIT.. 07/14/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGZ...VEF... 35321501 35121353 34891240 35061106 35931121 36821158 36961244 36981411 37311494 36311635 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 14 20:45:07 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 14 Jul 2004 15:45:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407142045.i6EKjM104635@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 142044 SWOMCD SPC MCD 142044 TNZ000-NCZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-142215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1670 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0344 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN TN/NRN AL/NRN MS/NWRN GA/NERN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 632... VALID 142044Z - 142215Z ...MAIN THREAT FROM STORMS WILL BE FROM LARGE HAIL BUT A WIND THREAT IS DEVELOPING... CLUSTER OF SUPERCELLS CONTINUES TO MOVE SEWD AROUND 30-35 KT INTO VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 3500 J/KG. MOST OF THE RECENT SEVERE REPORTS HAVE BEEN LARGE HAIL...BUT A WIND THREAT COULD DEVELOP WITH TIME. IMPRESSIVE SFC PRESSURE FALLS OF 3-4MB/2HR ARE NOTED IN NRN AL...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW STORMS TO DEVELOP SWD. RECENT VWP DATA FROM AREA RADARS SHOWS AROUND 25-30 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WHICH IS SUPPORTING THE SUPERCELL ENVIRONMENT. A DAMAGING WIND THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP WITH TIME AS DEEPENING COLD POOL SPREADS INTO AIRMASS WITH RELATIVELY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ADDITIONAL WW HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED ACROSS PORTIONS OF AL/GA/SC. ..TAYLOR.. 07/14/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG... 34148422 34739099 36419091 35888417 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 14 20:48:25 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 14 Jul 2004 15:48:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407142048.i6EKmi106112@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 142036 SWOMCD SPC MCD 142036 AZZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-142200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1669 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0336 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NW AZ...SE NV CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 142036Z - 142200Z SOME PULSING STRONG STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN NW AZ OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. MONSOONAL MOISTURE HAS BEEN FLOWING INTO THE AREA WITH DEWPOINTS RAPIDLY INCREASING INTO THE 60S F AT LAS...AND MID 50S TO LOW 60S NOTED IN NW AZ. MLCAPE VALUES IN THE REGION ARE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG AND STORMS THAT INITIATE ALONG TERRAIN FEATURES WILL BECOME STRONG IN THIS ENVIRONMENT. GIVEN LARGE SURFACE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS...A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ADDITIONALLY...STEEP LAPSE RATES AS INDICATED ON 18Z FGZ SOUNDING SUGGEST A MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL THREAT. ..LEVIT.. 07/14/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGZ...VEF... 35321501 35121353 34891240 35061106 35931121 36821158 36961244 36981411 37311494 36311635  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 14 20:55:05 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 14 Jul 2004 15:55:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407142055.i6EKtI109384@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 142044 SWOMCD SPC MCD 142044 TNZ000-NCZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-142215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1670 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0344 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN TN/NRN AL/NRN MS/NWRN GA/NERN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 632... VALID 142044Z - 142215Z ...MAIN THREAT FROM STORMS WILL BE FROM LARGE HAIL BUT A WIND THREAT IS DEVELOPING... CLUSTER OF SUPERCELLS CONTINUES TO MOVE SEWD AROUND 30-35 KT INTO VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 3500 J/KG. MOST OF THE RECENT SEVERE REPORTS HAVE BEEN LARGE HAIL...BUT A WIND THREAT COULD DEVELOP WITH TIME. IMPRESSIVE SFC PRESSURE FALLS OF 3-4MB/2HR ARE NOTED IN NRN AL...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW STORMS TO DEVELOP SWD. RECENT VWP DATA FROM AREA RADARS SHOWS AROUND 25-30 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WHICH IS SUPPORTING THE SUPERCELL ENVIRONMENT. A DAMAGING WIND THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP WITH TIME AS DEEPENING COLD POOL SPREADS INTO AIRMASS WITH RELATIVELY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ADDITIONAL WW HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED ACROSS PORTIONS OF AL/GA/SC. ..TAYLOR.. 07/14/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG... 34148422 34739099 36419091 35888417  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 14 21:54:50 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 14 Jul 2004 16:54:50 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407142155.i6ELt4102266@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 142154 SWOMCD SPC MCD 142153 SDZ000-NEZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-150000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1671 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0453 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN SD/ERN WY/WRN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 142153Z - 150000Z ATMOSPHERE HAS BEEN GRADUALLY DESTABILIZING THIS AFTERNOON...AND LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS CONGESTUS FIELD OUT NEAR THE BADLANDS. THIS MAY BE AN AREA FOR STORM INITIATION IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. STORM NOW OVER THE BLACK HILLS IS PRODUCING HAIL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELLS. SUBTLE IMPULSE IN WV IMAGERY NOW MOVING OVER NRN WY SUGGESTS THAT THERE IS SOME WEAK LARGE SCALE ASCENT OCCURRING. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS / MLCAPE NEAR 2000 J/KG / WILL LIKELY FAVOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS THROUGH THE AFTN/EVENING. IT SEEMS INITIAL PULSE LIKE CONVECTION IS STRUGGLING TO BECOME CONNECTED WITH THE STRONGER FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS. IF STORMS CAN OVERCOME THIS...THEN A MORE ORGANIZED THREAT FOR SEVERE HAIL/WIND WOULD EXIST...AND A WATCH MAY BE CONSIDERED. ..TAYLOR.. 07/14/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS...BYZ... 41060511 42600595 44560561 45170400 44599984 41130153 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 14 22:11:20 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 14 Jul 2004 17:11:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407142211.i6EMBX108343@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 142210 SWOMCD SPC MCD 142210 VAZ000-MDZ000-NCZ000-142315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1672 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0510 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN VA SWD INTO NERN NC CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 630... VALID 142210Z - 142315Z WW630 WILL EXPIRE AT 23Z AND A NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. AS OF 2150Z...REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC INDICATED STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSTMS /SOME OF WHICH ARE EXHIBITING MID-LEVEL ROTATION/ FROM CAROLINE EWD INTO SOMERSET COUNTIES IN SERN VA AND FROM LOUISA COUNTY SWD INTO HALIFAX COUNTY IN S-CNTRL VA. MEANWHILE...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED DEEPENING CUMULUS FIELD ALONG AND N OF THE INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR IN NC. THOUGH STRONGEST DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN N OF THE REGION AND OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES THIS EVENING...AIRMASS S AND E OF ONGOING STORMS SWD ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG AND LITTLE OR NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. PRESENCE OF MODERATELY STRONG NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW /I.E. 40-45KTS AT 500MB/ ACROSS THIS INSTABILITY AXIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED TSTMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. ADDITIONALLY... LOCALLY LOW LFC HEIGHTS AND RESULTANT 0-3KM CAPES OF 100-200 J/KG ACROSS THIS SAME AREA SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG LOW-LEVEL STRETCHING AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO EVEN AS LOW-LEVEL SHEAR REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK. ..MEAD.. 07/14/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH... 38117772 37917530 35777641 35957889 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 14 23:18:31 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 14 Jul 2004 18:18:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407142318.i6ENIj130645@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 142318 SWOMCD SPC MCD 142317 NDZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-150015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1673 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0617 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MT/WRN ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 142317Z - 150015Z ...WW MAY BE NEEDED SHORTLY ACROSS ERN MT/WRN ND... VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES VIGOROUS CUMULUS DEVELOPING FROM OLF TO EFC. STORMS SHOULD RAPIDLY FORM GIVEN MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH MLCAPE RANGING FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG. FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF AROUND 35 KT WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. ..TAYLOR.. 07/14/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW... 45880474 46860513 48960592 48980172 46130249 45840361 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 14 23:23:47 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 14 Jul 2004 18:23:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407142324.i6ENO6132384@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 142323 SWOMCD SPC MCD 142323 GAZ000-SCZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-150100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1674 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0623 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CNTRL AL/GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 633... VALID 142323Z - 150100Z CONTINUE VALID PORTIONS OF WW. AS OF 2300Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED LEADING EDGE OF MCS FROM TISHOMINGO COUNTY MS SEWD TO RANDOLPH/CLAY COUNTIES IN AL AND THEN NEWD INTO WALTON AND OCONEE COUNTIES IN GA. OVERALL SYSTEM MOVEMENT IS TO THE SSE AT AROUND 35KTS WITH EXTRAPOLATION PLACING LEADING EDGE OF GUST FRONT TO SRN BORDER OF WW OVER E-CNTRL AL/W-CNTRL GA BY 01Z. COMBINATION OF MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS AND 30-40KT OF NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROMOTE SWD PROPAGATION OF CNTRL/ERN PORTIONS OF MCS WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. FARTHER TO THE W OVER NERN MS/NWRN AL...VOLUMETRIC RADAR DATA SHOW SUPERCELL OVER COLBERT/FRANKLIN COUNTIES AL ON WRN EDGE OF MCS MOVING SWD AT 25-35KTS. HERE...LATEST VWPS AND RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR WWD/NWWD BACKBUILDING STORMS THIS EVENING INTO PROGRESSIVELY STRONGER CAP IN PLACE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY. IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL IS ALSO LIKELY...ESPECIALLY WITH ONGOING SUPERCELL OVER FAR NWRN AL. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AND IF IT BECOMES APPARENT THAT STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BACKBUILD TO THE W OF WW633...A NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED. ..MEAD.. 07/14/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...FFC...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG... 34588826 34788232 32438229 32218811 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 15 00:50:02 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 14 Jul 2004 19:50:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407150050.i6F0oE127466@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 150049 SWOMCD SPC MCD 150049 NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-150215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1675 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0749 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN CO/ CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 634... VALID 150049Z - 150215Z ...THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES MAINLY ACROSS WRN SD... STEEP LAPSE RATES OF 8.5 C/KM COMBINED WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR PER 00Z RAPID CITY SOUNDING SUGGEST THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES AS OF 0030Z WERE STILL IN THE 90S WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM ERN MT TO THE BLACK HILLS/ERN WY. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TOWERING CUMULUS ARE DEVELOPING...AND SHOULD ANY STORMS FORM...THEY WILL TEND TO BECOME SUPERCELLS. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE FARTHER SOUTH IN THE WATCH MAY BE DIMINISHING...AND CERTAINLY WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...WE EXPECT A DOWNWARD TREND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE WW. 00Z SOUNDING FROM DENVER CONFIRMS THAT MIDLEVEL FLOW IS QUITE WEAK...AND SO LONGTERM STORM ORGANIZATION IS NOT LIKELY. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME STRONG STORMS SOUTHEAST OF DENVER NEAR LIC THAT HAVE BEEN PULSING...SO ISOLATED HAIL/WIND IS POSSIBLE FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO. ..TAYLOR.. 07/15/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...BYZ... 39110217 39110498 45780576 45720259 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 15 01:17:51 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 14 Jul 2004 20:17:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407150118.i6F1I5103330@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 150117 SWOMCD SPC MCD 150116 GAZ000-SCZ000-ALZ000-150215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1676 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0816 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CNTRL AL/GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 633... VALID 150116Z - 150215Z SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING ACROSS AREA AND WW WILL LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 02Z. REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT GUST FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTIVE COMPLEX HAS BECOME PROGRESSIVELY DISPLACED SWD FROM HIGHEST REFLECTIVITY CORES OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO. THIS SUGGESTS AN INCREASING UPSHEAR TILT TO CONVECTIVE TOWERS AND OVERALL DECAY OF MCS. BEST POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SEVERE TSTM ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE TO THE W OF WW633 OVER NRN MS. THOUGH AN ISOLATED HAIL/WIND OCCURRENCE IS POSSIBLE OVER NWRN AL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE TOO SMALL TO WARRANT A NEW WW. ..MEAD.. 07/15/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CAE...FFC...BMX...HUN...MOB... 34548808 34598658 33898496 33758395 33808225 32438230 32218813 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 15 02:07:55 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 14 Jul 2004 21:07:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407150208.i6F287118737@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 150207 SWOMCD SPC MCD 150207 VAZ000-NCZ000-MDZ000-150330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1677 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0907 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN VA/NERN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 635... VALID 150207Z - 150330Z CONTINUE VALID PORTIONS OF WW. AS OF 0158Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSTMS FROM SRN CHESAPEAKE BAY SWWD INTO WAKE AND CHATHAM COUNTIES IN CNTRL NC. THOUGH OBJECTIVE FIELDS SUGGEST THAT ENVIRONMENT REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG...COOLING/STABILIZING EFFECTS IN BOUNDARY-LAYER ARE RESULTING IN INCREASINGLY LARGE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. ISOLATED WIND/HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST INTENSE UPDRAFTS FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...HOWEVER OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH 04Z. ..MEAD.. 07/15/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH... 37937662 37877350 35437561 35507987 35977951 36007890 36507814 37407706 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 15 02:39:52 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 14 Jul 2004 21:39:52 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407150240.i6F2e3129836@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 150239 SWOMCD SPC MCD 150239 SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-150415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1678 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0939 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MT/WRN ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 636... VALID 150239Z - 150415Z POTENTIAL FOR PRIMARILY DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF WW AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BIMODAL SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE IS IN PROGRESS TONIGHT FROM SERN SASKATCHEWAN SWD INTO SWRN ND/NWRN SD. MCS EVOLVING OVER SERN SASKATCHEWAN AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WRN PORTIONS OF THE PROVINCE /PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/ REMAINS COMPOSED OF SEVERAL SUPERCELLS...THE SRN MOST OF WHICH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NERN SHERIDAN COUNTY MT. MEANWHILE...AN ADDITIONAL MORE ISOLATED SUPERCELL WAS LOCATED OVER SLOPE/BOWMAN COUNTIES IN SWRN ND. RUC POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE WW AREA CONTINUE TO INDICATE VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE PERSISTENCE OF THESE STORMS WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG...0-6KM SHEAR VALUES OF 45-55KTS AND 0-1KM SRH OF 100-200 M2/S2. INCREASING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WITH ONSET OF COOLING IN BOUNDARY-LAYER SHOULD TEND WEAKEN SRN SUPERCELL WITH TIME. PRIOR TO THIS...AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO...VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. FARTHER N...HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH COUPLED WITH EXPANDING AND DEEPENING MCS COLD POOL MAY SUPPORT A CONTINUED SERN SYSTEM MOVEMENT INTO NWRN AND POSSIBLY N-CNTRL OR CNTRL ND OVERNIGHT. HERE TOO...AN ISOLATED TORNADO IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...WITH PRIMARILY A DAMAGING WIND THREAT EXPECTED THEREAFTER. ..MEAD.. 07/15/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW... 48970571 48940152 45690005 45680404 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 15 03:07:52 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 14 Jul 2004 22:07:52 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407150308.i6F389106240@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 150307 SWOMCD SPC MCD 150307 SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-150400- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1679 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1007 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN MT/WRN SD/NERN WY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 634... VALID 150307Z - 150400Z POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST WITH ONGOING STORMS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AND A REPLACEMENT WW MAY BE REQUIRED. AS OF 0250Z...TWO SUPERCELLS WITH A HISTORY OF LARGE HAIL WERE LOCATED OVER BOWMAN COUNTY ND AND BUTTE COUNTY SD MOVING 345/30KTS. ENVIRONMENT REMAINS QUITE FAVORABLE FOR STORM ROTATION WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 45-55KTS AND 0-1KM SRH OF 100-150 M2/S2. THOUGH CONVECTIVE INHIBITION CONTINUES TO INCREASE WITH ONSET OF RADIATIONAL COOLING...NON-HYDROSTATIC PRESSURE GRADIENTS ASSOCIATED WITH MESOCYCLONES SHOULD ALLOW THESE STORMS TO OVERCOME STRENGTHENING CAP FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. WHILE LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS...MODERATELY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR MAY SUPPORT A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AND IF SUPERCELLS CAN MAINTAIN CURRENT NEAR-STEADY STATE...A NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED. ..MEAD.. 07/15/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ... 45740569 45690256 43030245 42990546 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 15 03:43:18 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 14 Jul 2004 22:43:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407150343.i6F3hU116704@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 150342 SWOMCD SPC MCD 150341 ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-150515- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1680 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1041 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN AR/SWRN TN AND NRN MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 637... VALID 150341Z - 150515Z POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS EXISTS WITH MOST INTENSE STORMS ACROSS WW AREA. REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS STORM REGENERATION ON PREFERRED WRN/SWRN FLANK OF SMALL MCS IN PROGRESS OVER FAR SWRN TN INTO NRN MS. FORCING FOR ASCENT IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK OVER THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS COUPLED WITH INFLOW OF MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ALONG WEAK WLY LLJ BRANCH OVER THE MS DELTA REGION IS LIKELY AIDING IN THIS PROCESS. MOREOVER...BAND OF 35-45KT NWLY FLOW AT 6KM PER MEMPHIS TN AND COLUMBUS MS VWPS IS RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR SOME MID-LEVEL ROTATION...IN ADDITION TO PROMOTING FORWARD PROPAGATION OF SYSTEM. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS IN ADDITION TO ISOLATED LARGE HAIL OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO WILL LIKELY BE WITH ORGANIZING LINE OF STORMS FROM DESOTO ESEWD INTO PRENTISS COUNTIES IN FAR NRN MS. ..MEAD.. 07/15/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN... 36089092 35368816 33588812 34159091 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 15 04:39:37 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 14 Jul 2004 23:39:37 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407150439.i6F4dn101508@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 150439 SWOMCD SPC MCD 150438 ALZ000-MSZ000-150615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1681 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1138 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CNTRL MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 150438Z - 150615Z DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE N BETWEEN 05-06Z. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE. SHORT LINE SEGMENT FROM LAFAYETTE COUNTY ESEWD INTO LEE COUNTY IN NRN MS HAS ACCELERATED SSEWD AT 25-30KTS OVER THE PAST HOUR WITH EXTRAPOLATION PLACING LEADING EDGE OF HIGHER REFLECTIVITIES TO SRN EDGE OF WW637 BY 0530Z. THOUGH CONVECTIVE INHIBITION HAS INCREASED TO OVER 200 J/KG PER OBJECTIVE FIELDS...COMBINATION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY...30-35KTS OF NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP SHEAR AND STRENGTHENING COLD POOL MAY MAINTAIN CONVECTIVE LINE AND INHERENT WIND THREAT S OF PRESENT WW AREA. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AND A WW MAY BE REQUIRED IF IT APPEARS THAT AN ORGANIZED WIND THREAT WILL DEVELOP S OF WW637. ..MEAD.. 07/15/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MEG...JAN... 34099061 33588818 32588838 33169094 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 15 07:38:51 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 15 Jul 2004 02:38:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407150739.i6F7d2117342@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 150738 SWOMCD SPC MCD 150737 NDZ000-SDZ000-150830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1682 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0237 AM CDT THU JUL 15 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 638... VALID 150737Z - 150830Z ...WW MAY BE CANCELED EARLY... ELEVATED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO GRADUAL DECREASE IN INTENSITY ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF WW AS ACTIVITY PROPAGATES INTO A PROGRESSIVELY MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. IF THESE TRENDS PERSIST WW MAY BE CANCELED EARLY. ..DARROW.. 07/15/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS... 46280169 47850099 48239959 46989927 45740021 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 15 14:33:12 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 15 Jul 2004 09:33:12 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407151433.i6FEXM121630@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 151432 SWOMCD SPC MCD 151432 IAZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-151630- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1683 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0932 AM CDT THU JUL 15 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN SD....NERN NEB...NWRN IA CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 151432Z - 151630Z ISOLD HAIL POTENTIAL SPREADING SEWD TOWARD THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. HOWEVER...SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TOO LIMITED FOR A WATCH AT THIS TIME. A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN MODEST 40KT NWLY FLOW APPEARS TO BE ENHANCING ASCENT AND DESTABILIZATION ACROSS SERN SD THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT...A SMALL CLUSTER OF ELEVATED TSTMS WAS SPREADING SEWD AT ABOUT 30KT ON THE ERN EDGE OF PLAINS CAPPING INVERSION. ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE OUTRUNNING STRONGEST LOW LEVEL FORCING ON THE NOSE OF WEAK WSWLY LLJ AND A GENERAL DOWNWARD TREND WAS NOTED IN REFLECTIVITY AND VIL OVER THE LAST HALF HOUR. EXPECT THIS WEAKENING TREND TO CONTINUE BASED ON LATEST ETA MODEL GUIDANCE. EXPECT NEW CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG UPSTREAM OUTFLOW/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY ACROSS ERN SD/NERN NEB LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS CAP IS BREACHED IN THESE AREAS. ..CARBIN.. 07/15/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX... 43639631 42349615 42199680 42909753 43279824 43849810 43879675 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 15 15:09:26 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 15 Jul 2004 10:09:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407151509.i6FF9a105450@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 151509 SWOMCD SPC MCD 151508 GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-151745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1684 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1008 AM CDT THU JUL 15 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN GA AND NRN FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 151508Z - 151745Z NUMEROUS STRONG AND OCCASIONALLY SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST INTO THIS AFTERNOON. GENERALLY WEAK ORGANIZATION AND RANDOM NATURE OF THE SEVERE THREAT WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO CONTAIN THIS AREA WITHIN A WATCH. NUMEROUS TSTMS HAVE ERUPTED ALONG WEAK CONFLUENCE ZONE GENERALLY ALONG THE GA/FL BORDER AREA. VERY HIGH INSTABILITY AND WEAK CAP WILL PERSIST BENEATH BROADLY DIFFLUENT MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO CONFLUENCE AXIS...SEA BREEZES AND RESIDUAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. WEAK SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD RESULT IN POORLY ORGANIZED CONVECTION. HOWEVER...MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY...STORM COVERAGE...AND STORM SCALE INTERACTIONS COULD LEAD TO A FEW SEVERE WIND AND/OR HAIL REPORTS...IN ADDITION TO VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. ..CARBIN.. 07/15/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...TAE... 30178126 29758272 30028487 30388521 31068541 31558490 31588341 31638233 31688157 31528124 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 15 16:56:51 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 15 Jul 2004 11:56:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407151657.i6FGv2X00358@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 151656 SWOMCD SPC MCD 151655 NEZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-151900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1685 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1155 AM CDT THU JUL 15 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 151655Z - 151900Z SMALL CLUSTER OF INTENSE CONVECTION WAS TRACKING ALMOST DUE SOUTH ACROSS NERN NEB. AN ISOLD HAIL THREAT WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST CELLS. POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS MAY ALSO EVOLVE FROM THIS ACTIVITY AS BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING/MIXING CONTINUES TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED SHORTLY. MID LEVEL PERTURBATION AND ASSOCIATED SMALL SCALE NWLY WIND MAX DEVELOPING SEWD ACROSS ERN SD APPEAR TO BE CONTRIBUTING TO SUSTAINED ASCENT AND DESTABILIZATION ON THE EDGE OF PLAINS CAPPING INVERSION. TSTM INTENSITY HAS BEEN CYCLING OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS WITH A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OCCURRING ALONG THE SWRN FLANK OF THE COMPLEX....AND NOW NEW DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE STORMS IN PIERCE AND WAYNE COUNTIES. STRONG UPSTREAM INSTABILITY OVER WRN/CNTRL NEB COUPLED WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION... AND MODEST NWLY FLOW...SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT VIGOROUS CONVECTION AND PERHAPS SUPERCELLS. CURRENT ACTIVITY COULD MAINTAIN SEVERE INTENSITY...IN THE FORM OF HAIL AND PERHAPS WIND... ACROSS ERN NEB OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ..CARBIN.. 07/15/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF... 43769831 43459720 41819622 40149563 40129738 42469837 43289914 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 15 17:29:40 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 15 Jul 2004 12:29:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407151729.i6FHTnX15967@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 151729 SWOMCD SPC MCD 151728 MNZ000-NDZ000-151930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1686 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1228 PM CDT THU JUL 15 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN ND AND NRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 151728Z - 151930Z SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS INTO NRN MN THIS AFTERNOON. PRIMARY THREAT SHOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND ISOLD STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS. A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED. LOW AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED WITHIN MODEST 30-40KT NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SEWD FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS IMPULSE SHOULD ENHANCE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ASCENT ALONG SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH SITUATED SW TO NE ACROSS ERN ND AND INTO NWRN MN. MODEST NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW ATOP WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND INCREASING INSTABILITY SHOULD MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. A FEW SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. DESPITE SUPERCELL THREAT...TORNADO POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE LIMITED BY WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW AND SOMEWHAT MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. ..CARBIN.. 07/15/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF... 48489287 46789345 46609495 47269603 47729659 48609790 48989739 48969484 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 15 18:02:03 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 15 Jul 2004 13:02:03 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407151802.i6FI2CX30272@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 151801 SWOMCD SPC MCD 151801 UTZ000-AZZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-152030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1687 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0101 PM CDT THU JUL 15 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN NV....SWRN UT...NWRN AZ CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 151801Z - 152030Z POCKETS OF INTENSE BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING COUPLED WITH MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME ACROSS THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST UT WILL CONTINUE TO FUEL VIGOROUS TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER PARTS OF THE DESERT SW THIS AFTERNOON. BULK OF CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BE PULSE VARIETY WITH ISOLD TO WIDELY DAMAGING WIND THREAT...AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL. A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. ..CARBIN.. 07/15/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGZ...SLC...VEF...LKN... 36531261 34951400 35181499 36581630 37531625 39041431 39341234 38571087 38291028 36971141 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 15 18:13:52 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 15 Jul 2004 13:13:52 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407151814.i6FIE3X02930@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 151813 SWOMCD SPC MCD 151812 ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-OKZ000-152015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1688 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0112 PM CDT THU JUL 15 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK/AR/MS/WRN AL/NERN LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 151812Z - 152015Z ....STORMS WILL BE DEVELOPING THIS AFTN IN A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH SOME STRONG/SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE... LATEST SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SE KS NEAR CNU SEWD ALONG A FYV/HOT/TYR/MGM LINE. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS DEVELOPING ALONG THIS AXIS. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW/MID 70S ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 3500 J/KG. GIVEN LITTLE TO NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...STORMS WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP ESPECIALLY WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED. THIS REGION IS RIGHT ON THE SWRN FRINGE OF THE STRONGER NWLY FLOW ALOFT. HASKELL OK/SRN MO PROFILER DATA INDICATE AROUND 25-35 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WEAKENS WITH SWD EXTENT PER THE 18Z JACKSON MS SOUNDING. WITH DOWNDRAFT CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG...THREAT OVER THE GULF COAST STATES SHOULD BE FROM MICROBURST WINDS. WHILE STORMS MAY NOT BE WELL ORGANIZED INITIALLY...THE LACK OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND ABUNDANT INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR NUMEROUS STORMS. CELL/BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY INTENSE UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND. ..TAYLOR.. 07/15/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA... 36319501 34899511 32309238 31438653 32998650 34909082 36459402 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 15 18:41:04 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 15 Jul 2004 13:41:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407151841.i6FIfDX14180@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 151840 SWOMCD SPC MCD 151839 UTZ000-AZZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-152115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1689 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0139 PM CDT THU JUL 15 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN NV....SWRN UT...NWRN AZ CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 151839Z - 152115Z POCKETS OF INTENSE BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING COUPLED WITH MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME ACROSS THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST UT WILL CONTINUE TO FUEL VIGOROUS TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER PARTS OF THE DESERT SW THIS AFTERNOON. BULK OF CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BE PULSE VARIETY WITH ISOLD TO WIDELY DAMAGING WIND THREAT...AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL. A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. ..CARBIN.. 07/15/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGZ...SLC...VEF...LKN... 36531261 34951400 35181499 36581630 37531625 39041431 39341234 38571087 38291028 36971141 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 15 19:04:51 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 15 Jul 2004 14:04:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407151905.i6FJ50X24926@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 151904 SWOMCD SPC MCD 151903 NEZ000-SDZ000-152130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1690 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0203 PM CDT THU JUL 15 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN SD...ERN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 151903Z - 152130Z TSTMS EXPECTED TO FORM QUICKLY NEAR THE SD/NEB BORDER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ACTIVITY SHOULD REACH SEVERE LEVELS RAPIDLY. WITH VOLATILE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS DEVELOPING...A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. LATEST SATELLITE LOOPS WERE SHOWING THICKENING CU FIELD NEAR OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/WIND SHIFT INTERSECTION ON THE SD/NEB BORDER AREA NW OF O'NEILL NEB. AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF MORNING MCS WAS QUICKLY RECOVERING. STRONG HEATING AND LOW 70S DEWPOINTS ACROSS CNTRL NEB WERE RESULTING IN MLCAPE VALUES CLIMBING TO AT LEAST 2000 J/KG. DESPITE RELATIVELY WEAK/AMBIGUOUS LARGE SCALE FORCING ACROSS THE REGION...CONVERGENCE ALONG BOUNDARY INTERSECTIONS...AND INTENSE HEATING INTO THE 90S SHOULD PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR STORM INITIATION WITHIN 1-2 HOURS. RUC FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATED THAT REMAINING INHIBITION SHOULD BE OVERCOME AS TEMPERATURES EXCEED THE MID 90S. TEMPERATURES ACROSS SCNTRL SD...IN WAKE OF THE WIND SHIFT...WERE ALREADY NEARING 95F. INCREASING NWLY FLOW WITH HEIGHT ATOP WEAK SLY/SELY NEAR SURFACE FLOW WILL RESULT IN STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. STORMS TRACKING SWD ALONG RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS ECNTRL NEB WILL ENCOUNTER ENHANCED 0-3KM SRH IN THE 200-300 M2/S2 RANGE...MORE THAN ADEQUATE TO MAINTAIN STRONG MESOCYCLONES...AND A CHANCE FOR TORNADOES. ADDITIONALLY... LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH ANY SUPERCELLS THAT FORM. ..CARBIN.. 07/15/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR... 41079933 41440050 41860116 42670008 43489982 44219933 44159807 43139715 41909664 41139777 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 15 19:54:42 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 15 Jul 2004 14:54:42 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407151954.i6FJsoX18682@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 151953 SWOMCD SPC MCD 151953 NEZ000-KSZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-152230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1691 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0253 PM CDT THU JUL 15 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN WY/WRN NEB/NERN CO/NW KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 151953Z - 152230Z NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED ACROSS MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE FRONT RANGE...WITH A FEW STORMS ACROSS THE ERN CO PLAINS/NW KS. WIND SHIFT LINE IS NOTED ACROSS NEB FROM BFF TO ODX AND IS ALSO PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND STORM FORMATION. UPSLOPE FLOW OF INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR WITH MLCAPE VALUES NEARING 2000 J/KG WILL CONTRIBUTE TO CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS INTO THIS EVENING. UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS RELATIVELY WEAK ACROSS CO/WY BUT ACTIVITY MAY TEND TO CONGEAL INTO LARGER MASS OF CONVECTION AND MOVE EAST TOWARD GREATER INSTABILITY NEXT FEW HOURS. AS THIS PROCESS UNFOLDS...MICROBURST WINDS AND/OR HAIL POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS. GIVEN LACK OF STRONGER FLOW ALOFT AND RELATIVELY STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE ONGOING STORMS...HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING WILL ALSO BE A THREAT. ..TAYLOR/CARBIN.. 07/15/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...RIW... 38660273 39380538 42640631 43070327 42960154 41940138 39250076 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 15 19:56:13 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 15 Jul 2004 14:56:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407151956.i6FJuMX19472@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 151955 SWOMCD SPC MCD 151955 GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-152200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1692 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0255 PM CDT THU JUL 15 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AL...SRN GA....NRN FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 151955Z - 152200Z NUMEROUS STRONG AND SEVERE TSTMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS SERN AL...SRN GA...AND PORTIONS OF NRN FL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WHILE PARTS OF THE REGION HAVE ALREADY EXPERIENCED WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE WEATHER IN THE FORM OF HAIL AND WIND...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD WIND AND HAIL REPORTS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS STRONGER SHEAR OVERSPREADS EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. A WATCH MAY BE ISSUED SHORTLY. ..CARBIN.. 07/15/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX... 32048140 31698128 30768165 30478251 30468469 30548584 30758589 31038587 31818593 31978352 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 15 22:05:23 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 15 Jul 2004 17:05:23 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407152205.i6FM5WX15653@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 152204 SWOMCD SPC MCD 152204 OKZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-152330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1693 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0504 PM CDT THU JUL 15 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN CO SEWD ACROSS WRN KS INTO N-CNTRL OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 152204Z - 152330Z POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST WITH DEVELOPING STORMS. RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS STORMS DEVELOPING FROM PORTIONS OF NERN CO SEWD INTO SWRN KS /FORD COUNTY/. 21Z MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING ALONG A BOUNDARY THAT SEPARATES HOT...DEEPLY-MIXED AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER SWRN KS/WRN OK FROM COMPARATIVELY COOLER AND MORE MOIST AIR RESIDING FROM CNTRL NEB/CNTRL KS INTO ERN OK. THOUGH NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK ACROSS THIS AREA AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 20-25KTS...PRESENCE OF SLY/SELY BOUNDARY-LAYER WINDS AND MODERATE INSTABILITY /I.E. MLCAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG/ SHOULD SUPPORT SOME STORM ORGANIZATION WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. HOWEVER...IF IT APPEARS THAT STORMS MAY MERGE INTO ORGANIZED CLUSTERS OR POSSIBLY A FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS...WW MAY BE REQUIRED. ..MEAD.. 07/15/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...LBF...DDC...GLD...AMA...BOU... 40640277 40660201 37319811 36639739 36629966 40590404 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 15 22:19:07 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 15 Jul 2004 17:19:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407152219.i6FMJGX21335@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 152218 SWOMCD SPC MCD 152218 FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-160015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1694 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0518 PM CDT THU JUL 15 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AL/CNTRL MS/NERN LA/SERN AR/SRN GA/NRN FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 639...641... VALID 152218Z - 160015Z MARITIME BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH SWRN/SCNTRL GA SHOULD CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT CONVECTION IN THESE AREAS...SO SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE DIMINISHING WITH TIME. EARLIER STORMS ACROSS NERN FL HAVE ALSO SOMEWHAT STABILIZED AIRMASS IN THAT REGION GIVEN THE LACK OF NEW CUMULUS NEAR JAX. SO...MAIN THREAT FOR WW 641 WILL BE IN THE WRN PORTION OF WW FROM MAI/DHN WEST...AND IN NE PART OF WW. THERE IS A WEDGE OF UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS SRN AL NOT CURRENTLY INCLUDED IN PRESENT WATCHES WHICH HAS NOT YET BEEN OVERTURNED. A SHORT TERM SEVERE THREAT EXISTS HERE...WITH ACTIVE CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY PER LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY. ACROSS WW 642...SEVERE THREAT PERSISTS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE WATCH...AS STORMS DEVELOP IN A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. ..TAYLOR.. 07/15/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LZK...SHV... 33969202 32228796 31258142 29738142 30618637 30458790 32299203 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 15 22:41:57 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 15 Jul 2004 17:41:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407152242.i6FMg6X29104@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 152241 SWOMCD SPC MCD 152241 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-160015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1695 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0541 PM CDT THU JUL 15 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SD INTO CNTRL/SRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 152241Z - 160015Z POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA AND A WW MAY BE REQUIRED. STORMS HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO FROM PORTIONS OF ERN ND INTO CNTRL MN /NE OF AXN/ AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SEWD THROUGH NRN MN. THOUGH DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL/SRN MN IS ONLY WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG...CURRENT WOOD LAKE PROFILER SUGGESTS THAT AS STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE S...INFLOW SOURCE REGION WILL LIKELY BE MORE STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS ERN SD WHERE MLCAPES HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND 2500 J/KG. ADDITIONALLY... THIS PROFILER INDICATES RELATIVELY LONG HODOGRAPH WITH 0-6KM SHEAR OF 50-55KTS. IF STORMS CAN TAP AFOREMENTIONED STRONGER AIRMASS OVER ERN SD...DEGREE OF SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. STORMS MAY ATTEMPT TO CONGEAL INTO FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WITH WWD DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE INTO STRONGER CAP OVER ERN SD. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AND A WW MAY BE REQUIRED WITHIN THE HOUR. ..MEAD.. 07/15/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR... 46219789 46109300 43529303 43589783 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 15 22:47:57 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 15 Jul 2004 17:47:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407152248.i6FMm5X30861@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 152247 SWOMCD SPC MCD 152246 NMZ000-AZZ000-160045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1696 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0546 PM CDT THU JUL 15 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SCNTRL/SERN AZ CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 152246Z - 160045Z ...SEVERE POTENTIAL IS BEING MONITORED FOR SCNTRL/SERN AZ FOR STORMS DEVELOPING MAINLY ACROSS SERN AZ... MEAN FLOW ALOFT PER FLAGSTAFF VWP DATA IS SELY...AND MAINLY PARALLEL TO THE MOGOLLON RIM. STORMS WHICH ALREADY EXTEND SEWD FROM FLAGSTAFF INTO THE WHITE MTNS WILL THEREFORE PROPAGATE ALONG THE RIM STAYING FOCUSED ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FARTHER NW...NEAR LAS VEGAS...AIRMASS IS NOT AS UNSTABLE...PROBABLY DUE TO EARLIER STORMS. IN ADDITION 18Z FLAGSTAFF SOUNDING HAD ONLY MODEST MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH MLCAPE VALUES JUST OVER 1000 J/KG. THE GREATER CONCERN FOR SEVERE IS ACROSS SERN AZ NEAR TUS...WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE 90S TO NEAR 100...AND LAPSE RATES ARE OBVIOUSLY STEEPER. THESE STORMS...GIVEN STRONGER SELY FLOW ALOFT OF AROUND 20 KT...WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO MOVE INTO THE LOWER VALLEYS...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE TUS/PHX METRO AREAS LATER TONIGHT. ..TAYLOR.. 07/15/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABQ...TWC...FGZ...PSR... 31320910 31581170 33861277 35251232 35311122 35150903 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 15 23:09:03 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 15 Jul 2004 18:09:03 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407152309.i6FN9FX06166@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 152308 SWOMCD SPC MCD 152308 NEZ000-KSZ000-160045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1697 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0608 PM CDT THU JUL 15 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 152308Z - 160045Z POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND A WW MAY BE REQUIRED. AS OF 2252Z...NORTH PLATTE RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS INTENSE LINE OF STORMS OVER SRN CUSTER COUNTY WWD INTO CNTRL PORTIONS OF LINCOLN COUNTY. EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS SHORT LINE WAS A SUPERCELL OVER S-CNTRL CUSTER COUNTY /S OF BBW/. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT THIS LINE OF STORMS IS MOVING/DEVELOPING SWD THROUGH AXIS OF STRONGEST INSTABILITY WHERE MLCAPES HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND 4000 J/KG. THOUGH RED WILLOW NEB PROFILER SHOWS COMPARATIVELY WEAKER MID-LEVEL FLOW THAN PROFILER SITES OVER ERN NEB...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SWD TOWARD THE KS BORDER WITH SOME ADDITIONAL WWD DEVELOPMENT STILL POSSIBLE. EITHER AN ADDITIONAL WW OR REPLACEMENT WW MAY BE REQUIRED WITHIN THE HOUR. ..MEAD.. 07/15/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD... 40960190 41059943 40029947 39960194 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 16 00:35:45 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 15 Jul 2004 19:35:45 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407160035.i6G0ZtX32450@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 160035 SWOMCD SPC MCD 160034 GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-160200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1698 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0734 PM CDT THU JUL 15 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AR/NERN LA/SRN MS/SRN AL/WRN FL PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 639...641... VALID 160034Z - 160200Z ...SVR WW 639 AND 641 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 01Z... A SEVERE THREAT STILL EXISTS ACROSS EXTREME WRN PORTIONS OF WW 641...AS STORMS CONTINUE TO THRIVE ON UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH WET MICROBURSTS. RECENT SFC OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN BETWEEN 25-35 KT...AND A FEW REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE HAVE BEEN RECEIVED. OVERALL...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE DIMINISHING OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. A NEW WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ..TAYLOR.. 07/16/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LZK...SHV... 30988389 30338469 30848767 30648831 31028922 32259199 33939197 31948693 31758518 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 16 00:54:32 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 15 Jul 2004 19:54:32 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407160054.i6G0sgX06052@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 160053 SWOMCD SPC MCD 160053 IAZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-160200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1699 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0753 PM CDT THU JUL 15 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN SD AND PORTIONS OF ERN/CNTRL NEB CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 640... VALID 160053Z - 160200Z POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES EXISTS WITH SUPERCELLS OVER NERN NEB. CONTINUE WW. AS OF 0030Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED A SUPERCELL OVER W-CNTRL ANTELOPE/SERN HOLT COUNTIES IN NERN NEB MOVING SWD AT 10-20KTS. LATEST MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT THIS STORM IS COLOCATED WITH A MESOLOW NW OF OFK WITHIN ZONE OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. 00Z OAX SOUNDING INDICATED PRESENCE OF MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH MLCAPES OF 2000-2500 J/KG...HOWEVER A PRONOUNCED CAP WAS OBSERVED IN THE 850-700MB LAYER. THIS SUGGESTS THAT STORMS SHOULD REMAIN CLOSELY TIED TO THIS SURFACE LOW AND ATTENDANT MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES WHERE STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE CAN FORCE PARCELS TO THE LFC. SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50KTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUSTAIN ONGOING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. ADDITIONALLY...MODEST DEGREE OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR / I.E. 0-1KM SRH OF 100-150 M2/S2 / SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS THAT CAN OVERCOME INCREASING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AND A REPLACEMENT WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED WITHIN THE HOUR. ..MEAD.. 07/16/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF... 43569910 43579645 40629691 40649939 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 16 01:03:04 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 15 Jul 2004 20:03:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407160103.i6G13FX08143@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 160102 SWOMCD SPC MCD 160101 ARZ000-LAZ000-MOZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-160300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1700 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0801 PM CDT THU JUL 15 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SW MO/AR/NRN LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 642... VALID 160101Z - 160300Z ...SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA...BUT ESPECIALLY NW AR/SW MO... TOWERING CUMULUS EXTENDS FROM JOHNSON/WASHINGTON COUNTIES IN NW ARKANSAS BACK INTO SW MO. STORMS HAD INITIALLY BEEN PREFERENTIALLY FORMING ON THE NORTHEAST FLANK OF THE SYSTEM AND ARE NOW WEAKENING OVER BAXTER/STONE COUNTIES AS THEY MOVE INTO A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. LATEST LIGHTNING DATA SHOW THE MOST ACTIVE AREA OF CONVECTION OVER NW AR...AND THE CONCERN IS ON BACKBUILDING CELLS ON THE NW SIDE. BOTH 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM SPRINGFIELD AND LITTLE ROCK LOOK VERY FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH OVER 5000 J/KG AT LZK. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS AROUND 30 KT...AND ASSUMING A COLD POOL CAN FORM WITH ONGOING CELLS ACROSS AR...THE SYSTEM MAY ALSO FORWARD PROPAGATE SEWD PER MCS MOTION VECTORS. ..TAYLOR.. 07/16/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA... 31739199 34059479 37599472 35309191 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 16 02:17:09 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 15 Jul 2004 21:17:09 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407160217.i6G2HHX32392@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 160216 SWOMCD SPC MCD 160216 WIZ000-MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-160345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1701 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0916 PM CDT THU JUL 15 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN ND/NERN SD AND PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 643... VALID 160216Z - 160345Z POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED WIND/HAIL IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...HOWEVER OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING. REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS CLUSTER OF STRONG TSTMS OVER STEVENS AND POPE COUNTIES IN W-CNTRL MN MOVING SWD AT 20-30KTS. THOUGH 00Z MPX/ABR SOUNDINGS INDICATED PRESENCE OF MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS...IT APPEARS THAT RELATIVELY WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE HAS LIMITED OVERALL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. LATEST WOOD LAKE PROFILER DATA CONTINUE TO SHOW IMPRESSIVE MID/UPPER-LEVEL WIND FIELDS WITH 40-50KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR INVOF OF ONGOING STORMS. THUS...POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED WIND/HAIL IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS FROM SW OF AXN TO W/NW OF RWF. ..MEAD.. 07/16/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS... 47279812 46619697 46489538 46299434 45989278 43769278 44699807 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 16 03:01:38 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 15 Jul 2004 22:01:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407160301.i6G31kX13944@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 160300 SWOMCD SPC MCD 160300 NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-160430- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1702 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1000 PM CDT THU JUL 15 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN CO/NWRN KS AND SWRN INTO S-CNTRL NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 644... VALID 160300Z - 160430Z ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL REMAINS POSSIBLE...HOWEVER OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS DIMINISHING. REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS LARGE CONVECTIVE MASS OVER WRN PORTIONS OF WW AREA WITH POSSIBLE MCV OVER EXTREME SWRN NEB/NWRN KS. STRONGEST TSTM ACTIVITY AS OF 0250Z WAS OCCURRING FROM VICINITY OF MCV EWD INTO HITCHCOCK COUNTY NEB AND RAWLINS/THOMAS COUNTIES IN NWRN KS. POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE AN INCREASING CAP AND RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR...SUGGESTING THAT ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND/HAIL THREAT WILL LIKELY REMAIN CONFINED TO LEADING EDGE OF SYSTEM COLD POOL AS IT SLOWLY PROGRESSES SEWD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ..MEAD.. 07/16/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...BOU...CYS... 41010269 40349803 38819811 39430273 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 16 04:35:16 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 15 Jul 2004 23:35:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407160435.i6G4ZOX10236@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 160434 SWOMCD SPC MCD 160434 MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-160600- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1703 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1134 PM CDT THU JUL 15 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB/WRN IA INTO NERN KS AND NWRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 160434Z - 160600Z POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL WILL EXIST WITH MOST INTENSE STORMS. WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. AS OF 0424Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ELEVATED TSTMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FROM ERN NEB/WRN IA INTO FAR NWRN MO. OMA/DSM/TOP VWPS ALL INDICATE A PERSISTENT WAA SIGNATURE...LIKELY SUPPORTING ONGOING STORMS ABOVE CAP OBSERVED ON 00Z OMA/TOP SOUNDINGS WHERE MUCAPES REMAIN AROUND 1500-2500 J/KG. EFFECTIVE SHEAR ABOVE CAP REMAINS SUFFICIENTLY STRONG ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED TSTMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...THOUGH RELATIVELY WARM THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WITH WBZ HEIGHTS OF 11.5-12.5 KFT SHOULD PROMOTE SIGNIFICANT MELTING AND LIMIT OVERALL HAIL POTENTIAL. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM...HOWEVER CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED. ..MEAD.. 07/16/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP... 42159628 41699457 40309317 39009254 38409355 38089474 39069628 41369703 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 16 08:34:31 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 16 Jul 2004 03:34:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407160834.i6G8YcX09892@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 160834 SWOMCD SPC MCD 160833 MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-161030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1704 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0333 AM CDT FRI JUL 16 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS / WRN MO... CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 160833Z - 161030Z MAINLY ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS NWRN MO...AND TO SOME DEGREE ACROSS E CENTRAL AND NERN KS. WW WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY FOR MUCH OF SOUTHWEST MO AND EXTREME EASTERN KS. SURFACE-BASED SUPERCELL STORM HAS EVOLVED OUT OF ELEVATED STORM CLUSTER MOVING SSEWD ACROSS NWRN MO...AND IS APPROACHING THE KANSAS CITY AREA ATTM. DAMAGING WINDS -- INCLUDING 51 KT GUST AT MCI AND PUBLIC REPORT OF A TORNADO IN CLAY COUNTY -- HAVE OCCURRED WITH THIS STORM OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR. THUS FAR...ONLY ISOLATED CELLS HAVE BEEN SEVERE DUE TO RELATIVELY WEAK LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA...AND CAP WHICH CONTINUES TO INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE WIDESPREAD / INTENSE STORMS. HAVING SAID THAT...ONGOING SUPERCELL IS MOVING SWD TOWARD MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS /1000 TO 2000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE/...SUGGESTING THAT THIS STORM AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE. RADAR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO ORGANIZE INTO SMALL BOW ECHO...WITH ENHANCED THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS. MEANWHILE...HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS NWRN MO AS STORMS TRAIN / MOVE ESEWD REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME AREAS WITHIN MOIST /1.5 TO 1.75" PRECIPITABLE WATER/ AIRMASS. ..GOSS.. 07/16/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT... 40439523 40329448 38409307 37589284 37249375 37239500 38129623 39099629 40169607 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 16 11:29:40 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 16 Jul 2004 06:29:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407161129.i6GBTwX28497@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 161129 SWOMCD SPC MCD 161128 MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-161300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1705 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0628 AM CDT FRI JUL 16 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...W CENTRAL AND SWRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 645... VALID 161128Z - 161300Z WIDESPREAD / PRIMARILY ELEVATED STORMS CONTINUE MOVING SSEWD ACROSS NRN PARTS OF WW ATTM. ALTHOUGH WW REMAINS IN EFFECT...SEVERE THREAT HAS DECREASED. WW MAY BE CANCELLED PRIOR TO ITS 16/14Z EXPIRATION. DESPITE FAVORABLE INSTABILITY...THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING WITHIN BROAD AREA OF WARM ADVECTION ACROSS MO REMAIN ELEVATED ABOVE CAPPING INVERSION / STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. SURFACE-BASED SUPERCELL WHICH PRODUCED DAMAGING WINDS / HAIL ACROSS PARTS OF THE KANSAS CITY METRO AREA EARLIER HAS SINCE WEAKENED...AND STORMS HAVE REMAINED SUB-SEVERE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. ATTM...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED / SUB-SEVERE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. ALTHOUGH WW REMAINS IN EFFECT ATTM...EARLY CANCELLATION MAY BE POSSIBLE BARRING ANY UNFORESEEN INCREASES IN SEVERE THREAT ACROSS SWRN MO. ..GOSS.. 07/16/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA... 38099478 38459420 38139282 37549237 36489222 36469458 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 16 15:52:31 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 16 Jul 2004 10:52:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407161552.i6GFqbX01098@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 161551 SWOMCD SPC MCD 161551 MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-161815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1706 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1051 AM CDT FRI JUL 16 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN MI...NWRN IND...SRN WI...NRN IL...AND ERN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 161551Z - 161815Z POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS/ISOLATED HAIL THIS AFTERNOON FROM ERN IA TO SWRN MI/NWRN IND. AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW NEXT 1-3 HOURS. AT 1530Z...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING ALONG WIND SHIFT/WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NEAR GREEN BAY SWWD INTO CENTRAL IA. WV IMAGERY SUGGESTS A MODEST MID-LEVEL VORT MAX IS MOVING SSEWD ACROSS NRN WI WHICH MAY ALSO BE SUPPORTING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. CELLS WERE TRACKING 330/20-25 KT. SOME INCREASE IN SPEED IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON IF ORGANIZED MESOSCALE COLD POOLS CAN DEVELOP WITH CONVECTIVE DOWNDRAFTS. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE ENVIRONMENT DOWNSTREAM OF CURRENT ACTIVITY...WITH MUCAPE OF 2000-2500 J/KG EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON IN A BAND ACROSS ERN IA AND NRN IL. MUCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG IS LIKELY ACROSS SWRN MI/NWRN IND. CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS ALREADY MINIMAL AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN...SO THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS ERN IA/FAR SRN WI GIVEN SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND MID-LEVEL PVA. DEEP-LAYER NWLY FLOW SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR FORWARD PROPAGATING BOW SEGMENTS BY AFTERNOON WITH DAMAGING WINDS. LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH LONGER LIVED CELLS. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW NEXT 1-3 HOURS. ..BANACOS.. 07/16/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX... 42749180 42989157 43078965 43198756 43228676 43098518 42558481 42348484 41808499 41558518 41368538 41268571 41088666 41028747 41018858 40819081 41239124 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 16 16:43:37 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 16 Jul 2004 11:43:37 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407161643.i6GGhgX24448@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 161642 SWOMCD SPC MCD 161642 ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-161945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1707 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1142 AM CDT FRI JUL 16 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...MS...WEST CNTRL AND SWRN AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 161642Z - 161945Z STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP FROM NORTH CENTRAL MS SWD INTO SERN MS. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. WW ISSUANCE FOR THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. VERY MOIST AIR MASS WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOW/MID 70S ARE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA...AND BREAKS IN CLOUDS ARE ALLOWING LOCALIZED AREAS OF ENHANCED HEATING TO OCCUR. THIS IS RESULTING IN VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG. VERTICAL WINDS/SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 6 KM ARE RELATIVELY WEAK SUGGESTING THAT STORMSCALE ORGANIZATION WILL BE LIMITED. HOWEVER...NON-SATURATED AIR PRESENT IN 12Z JAN SOUNDING ABOVE THE SURFACE SUGGESTS THREAT FOR ENHANCED DOWNDRAFT GENERATION AND LOCALIZED WET MICROBURSTS. IN ADDITION...AMPLE MOISTURE CONTENT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES AND SLOW CELL MOVEMENT INDICATE THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. A WW FOR THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM...HOWEVER WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION FOR POSSIBILITY OF ORGANIZED COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR INCREASED MESOSCALE ORGANIZATION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ..WEISS.. 07/16/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...MEG...JAN...LIX... 31409033 32809033 33939014 34068943 33688838 32508793 31258777 30498841 30819014 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 16 17:25:07 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 16 Jul 2004 12:25:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407161725.i6GHPDX09683@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 161724 SWOMCD SPC MCD 161723 MSZ000-TNZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-161900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1708 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1223 PM CDT FRI JUL 16 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...AR...WRN MS...NERN LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 646... VALID 161723Z - 161900Z STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED SEWD ACROSS NERN AR AND WRN TN. AIR MASS AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY REMAINS VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE OF 2500-3500 J/KG. ALTHOUGH STORMS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO INTENSIFY DURING THE MORNING...POTENTIAL FOR STRENGTHENING WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON. A NEW WW WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY FOR PARTS OF SERN AR INTO WRN MS AND NERN LA TO REPLACE WW 646. ..WEISS.. 07/16/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LIX...LZK...SHV... 31169021 31409193 33749209 34559185 34909114 35028983 34738963 34348958 32289001 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 16 19:46:53 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 16 Jul 2004 14:46:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407161946.i6GJkxX31240@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 161946 SWOMCD SPC MCD 161945 MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-162115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1709 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0245 PM CDT FRI JUL 16 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IA...CENTRAL/NRN IL...N-CENTRAL/NWRN IND...AND SRN LAKE MICHIGAN CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 647... VALID 161945Z - 162115Z CONTINUE WW. AT 1930Z...SEVERAL WEAKLY ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTERS CONTINUE FROM 25NW MLI EWD INTO NWRN IND. ADDITIONAL STORM CLUSTERS CONTINUE ADJACENT TO THE WATCH AREA ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN WI AND PORTIONS OF LOWER MI. STORM MOTION WAS GENERALLY 340/20-25 KT. MODERATE INSTABILITY...WITH 100MB MLCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG...CONTINUES ACROSS THE SRN GREAT LAKES REGION WWD TO THE MS RIVER VALLEY. ALTHOUGH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING SSEWD ACROSS CENTRAL WI AND UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR REMAINS STRONG /60KT AT 10 KM PER BLU PROFILER/...STORMS HAVE NOT BECOME VERY WELL ORGANIZED ON THE MESOSCALE. ABSENCE OF CIN HAS ALLOWED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP IN A WIDELY SCATTERED FASHION. INSTABILITY SHOULD ALLOW FOR CONTINUED THREAT OF LARGE HAIL WITH LONGER-LIVED CELLS. DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LOCALIZED UNLESS GREATER MESOSCALE ORGANIZATION CAN BECOME ESTABLISHED. CELL MERGERS AND TRAINING OF STORMS SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL /UP TO 2"/HR/ ACROSS NWRN IND DURING THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. ..BANACOS.. 07/16/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX... 40439225 42619210 42388576 40208585 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 16 20:04:46 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 16 Jul 2004 15:04:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407162004.i6GK4pX05705@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 162004 SWOMCD SPC MCD 162003 MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-162200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1710 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0303 PM CDT FRI JUL 16 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AR...MS...NERN LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 648... VALID 162003Z - 162200Z SCATTERED NEW CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER PARTS OF SERN AR...NERN LA...AND WRN MS IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER STORMS NOW OVER WRN AL. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER CONVECTION CONTRIBUTED TO ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AS THE BOUNDARIES PROPAGATED WWD...WITH CONTINUING OUTFLOW MERGERS RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS /MLCAPE OF 2500-3500 J/KG/. VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION REMAINS MODEST AT BEST IN ASSOCIATION WITH 20-30 KT NWLY FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS. THIS SUGGESTS CONVECTION WILL PERSIST PRIMARILY AS MULTICELL CLUSTERS WITH POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ..WEISS.. 07/16/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MOB...MEG...JAN...LIX...LZK...SHV... 32549221 33689252 34299260 34389132 34629027 34688950 33148911 31278870 31279008 31359194 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 16 20:15:49 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 16 Jul 2004 15:15:49 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407162015.i6GKFwX10201@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 162014 SWOMCD SPC MCD 162014 AZZ000-162245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1711 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0314 PM CDT FRI JUL 16 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/N-CENTRAL AZ CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 162014Z - 162245Z AREAS OF CENTRAL AZ ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH...WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT. POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS FOR LOCALIZED HVY RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF 2"/HR ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF N-CENTRAL AZ DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. AT 20Z...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO BECOME INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS FROM NWRN YAVAPAI COUNTY ESEWD ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM. MORNING SOUNDINGS INDICATED PW VALUES OF 1.72" AT PHX AND 1.54" AT TUS...WITH MOISTURE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE VALUES UP TO 2500 J/KG OVER THE MTNS EAST OF PHX AT 20Z. SYNOPTICALLY...AREA IS LOCATED WEST OF A 500MB ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER NM. THIS IS SUPPORTING ELY TO SELY 3-6KM FLOW ON FGZ VAD WIND PROFILE. STORMS AT THE PRESENT TIME ARE MOVING ALONG/PARALLEL TO THE MTNS. HOWEVER...CONTINUED HEATING IN THE VALLEYS...WHERE SFC TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY REACHED 100+ IN THE PHX METRO AREA...SHOULD ALLOW FOR PROPAGATION OF CELLS AND STORM OUTFLOW WWD INTO THE VALLEY/BASINS OF CENTRAL AZ BY EVENING. SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AROUND 40F SHOULD SUPPORT SOME LOCALLY STRONG TO SEVERE WINDS GIVEN ABOVE SCENARIO...AND MAY WARRANT WW ISSUANCE WITHIN THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS. OTHER THREAT WILL BE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN GIVEN SLOW STORM MOTIONS PARALLEL TO THE RIM...AND ALSO FROM PRESCOTT NWWD ACROSS WRN YAVAPAI COUNTY. HIGH PW VALUES AND TRAINING OF CELLS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO LOCALIZED AREAS OF 2"+ HOURLY RAINFALL RATES IN THESE AREAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. ..BANACOS.. 07/16/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...VEF... 32531082 32501202 33141317 34201362 35001386 35521355 35651191 35371140 34971096 34451042 34291027 33780987 33160981 32530992 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 16 20:38:55 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 16 Jul 2004 15:38:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407162039.i6GKd3X19688@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 162038 SWOMCD SPC MCD 162037 MSZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-162230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1712 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0337 PM CDT FRI JUL 16 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN/SERN OK AND CENTRAL/SRN AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 162037Z - 162230Z A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINTAINED IN UPCOMING DAY 1 OUTLOOK ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SERN AR. NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ACROSS ERN OK/WRN AR DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES MCV NEAR THE S-CENTRAL KS/N-CENTRAL OK BORDER CONTINUES TO MOVE SEWD AT 25 KT. AIR MASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE SE OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS ERN OK/WRN AR...WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 90S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S. MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG AND LESSENING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT AS MCV MIGRATES SEWD INTO THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. NWLY DEEP-LAYER FLOW...WITH SFC-6KM SHEAR OF 30-35KT...SHOULD SUPPORT A FORWARD PROPAGATING BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS...GIVEN INITIATION...SEWD INTO CENTRAL/SRN AR THIS EVENING...WITH DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY THE PRIMARY THREAT. ..BANACOS.. 07/16/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...OUN... 35439593 35669496 35619285 35499211 34569096 33979094 33319122 33219207 33309364 34169556 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 16 22:02:23 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 16 Jul 2004 17:02:23 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407162202.i6GM2SX17946@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 162201 SWOMCD SPC MCD 162201 COZ000-NMZ000-170030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1713 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0501 PM CDT FRI JUL 16 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN CO FRONT RANGE CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 162201Z - 170030Z POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WITH HOURLY RATES APPROACHING 1.5-2 INCHES/HOUR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD TSTMS ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE CO ROCKIES AND ADJACENT FRONT RANGE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THIS ACTIVITY IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEP PLUME OF MOISTURE ORIGINATING FROM THE ERN PACIFIC/GULF OF CA WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING PW VALUES OF 1.3-1.5 INCHES. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ELY FLOW OBSERVED THROUGH THE LOWEST 1.5KM ON CURRENT PUEBLO VWP SHOULD TEND TO VEER TO SELY THROUGH 17/06Z...HOWEVER UPSLOPE COMPONENT SHOULD STILL MAINTAIN REGION OF DEEP ASCENT ALONG FRONT RANGE. CURRENT AND FORECAST STORM MOTIONS INDICATE A SLOW SWD MOVEMENT WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL BEING THE CNTRL/SRN CO FRONT RANGE WHERE STORM TRAINING WILL BE MOST LIKELY. ..MEAD.. 07/16/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...ABQ...GJT... 37090635 38430641 39680549 40410474 39930372 38520380 37040422 36580523 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 16 22:30:46 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 16 Jul 2004 17:30:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407162230.i6GMUpX27019@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 162230 SWOMCD SPC MCD 162229 NDZ000-SDZ000-170000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1714 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0529 PM CDT FRI JUL 16 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 162229Z - 170000Z POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST WITH DEVELOPING STORMS. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED. RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A COUPLE OF CONFLUENCE ZONES BECOMING BETTER DEFINED ACROSS THE AREA...ONE FROM NEAR P24 INTO S-CNTRL SASKATCHEWAN...AND THE OTHER FROM NW OF MBG TO NEAR SDY. A STORM HAS RECENTLY INITIATED ON THE FORMER OVER MOUNTRAIL COUNTY IN NWRN ND. TSTMS MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SEWD THROUGH SRN SASKATCHEWAN ENHANCES MESOSCALE ASCENT ALONG THESE SURFACE FEATURES. RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.5-8 C/KM ARE CONTRIBUTING TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG. IF STORMS CAN BECOME SUSTAINED...PRESENCE OF 40-50KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. LOCAL PROXIMITY OF LARGER-SCALE RIDGE AXIS MAY TEND TO LIMIT OVERALL BOUNDARY-LAYER CONVERGENCE...SUGGESTING THAT STORMS MAY REMAIN ISOLATED OR NOT ABLE TO FULLY REALIZE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR/INSTABILITY. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED...HOWEVER. ..MEAD.. 07/16/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR... 49000404 49020100 45899984 45920291 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 17 00:55:02 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 16 Jul 2004 19:55:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407170055.i6H0t7X02711@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 162345 SWOMCD SPC MCD 162344 MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-170045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1716 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0644 PM CDT FRI JUL 16 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AR/NERN LA AND CNTRL/SRN MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 648... VALID 162344Z - 170045Z POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF WW AREA FOR THE NEXT HOUR SO. AN ADDITIONAL... POSSIBLY MORE ORGANIZED THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF AR/NRN LA INTO WRN MS. SYNTHESIS OF VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE REGION...TWO OF WHICH WERE LOCATED FROM FAR SRN MS /N OF GPT/ NWWD INTO NERN LA /E OF MLU/ TO W OF GLH...AND ANOTHER FROM S OF GWO TO SW OF LIT. THOUGH WIDESPREAD TSTM ACTIVITY HAS LARGELY STABILIZED MUCH OF REMAINING WW AREA...AIRMASS TO THE W ACROSS CNTRL/SRN AR SWD ACROSS MUCH OF LA HAS NOT BEEN OVERTURNED WITH MLCAPES STILL AROUND 2500-3500 J/KG. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT REGION AHEAD OF MCV /CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN OK/ MAY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PARTS OF AR/NRN LA INTO WRN MS. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS HAVE LIMITED TSTM ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE SO FAR TODAY...HOWEVER DEVELOPING WLY LLJ ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT MAY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT DEEP CONVERGENCE ALONG AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TO INITIATE DEEP CONVECTION. IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 30-40KTS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. WW 648 WILL LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT THE TOP OF THE HOUR...HOWEVER CONDITIONS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW RE-ISSUANCE LATER THIS EVENING. ..MEAD.. 07/16/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MOB...MEG...JAN...LIX...LZK...LCH...SHV... 34379277 34419119 33919099 33459064 33299015 33368922 31288876 31279195  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 17 01:59:10 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 16 Jul 2004 20:59:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407170159.i6H1xFX21312@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 170158 SWOMCD SPC MCD 170158 AZZ000-170230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1717 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0858 PM CDT FRI JUL 16 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/WRN AZ CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 649... VALID 170158Z - 170230Z SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE VERY LOW OVER WW 649...WITH HEAVY RAIN BEING THE MAIN THREAT THROUGH 03Z. PER COORDINATION WITH WFOS PSR/TWC...WW 649 WILL BE CANCELLED AT 02Z. CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO MOVE SWWD ACROSS SRN/WRN AZ...AND ADDITIONAL ISOLATED BRIEFLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT HOUR...ESPECIALLY WHERE THIS OUTFLOW INTERSECTS OTHER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. HEAVY RAIN APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT GIVEN HIGH PW VALUES...SLOW CELL MOTIONS AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/CELL MERGERS WHICH WILL OCCUR IN THE SAME LOCATIONS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS OVER WRN MARICOPA AND ERN LA PAZ/YUMA COUNTIES. ..CROSBIE.. 07/17/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...VEF... 32091359 33621382 34571328 34531267 33291265 32681211 32681093 32121105 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 17 02:19:20 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 16 Jul 2004 21:19:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407170219.i6H2JOX26751@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 170218 SWOMCD SPC MCD 170218 MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-170345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1718 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0918 PM CDT FRI JUL 16 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN AR INTO NRN LA AND WRN MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 170218Z - 170345Z WW MAY BE REQUIRED WITHIN THE HOUR FOR DEVELOPING TSTMS. REGIONAL RADAR AND LDS DISPLAY INDICATE TSTMS RAPIDLY DEVELOPING E AND SE OF LIT WITH AN ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN SHALLOWER CONVECTION TO THE W OVER W-CNTRL AR. TSTMS APPEAR TO BE FORMING NEAR INTERSECTION SW-NE BOUNDARY AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ORIENTED MORE N-S OVER ERN AR INTO NERN LA. RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT 00Z LIT THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE STILL REMAINS REPRESENTATIVE WITH MLCAPES OF 2000-2500 J/KG. PERSISTENT WAA PATTERN OBSERVED ON AREA PROFILERS/VWPS SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED GROWTH OF EVOLVING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER...WITH POSSIBLE EVOLUTION INTO FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS THAT WOULD MOVE SSEWD ALONG COOL SIDE OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN PLACE FROM SERN AR INTO SWRN MS/SERN LA. GIVEN THE WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES...IT APPEARS THAT DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH DEVELOPING STORMS. ..MEAD.. 07/17/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LIX...LZK...LCH...SHV... 34899306 35099054 31208944 30949170 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 17 02:31:51 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 16 Jul 2004 21:31:51 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407170232.i6H2WIX30218@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 170231 SWOMCD SPC MCD 170230 AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-170400- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1719 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0930 PM CDT FRI JUL 16 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SRN NV AND PARTS OF SERN CA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 650... VALID 170230Z - 170400Z ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...AS NEW DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES ON PRIMARY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING WWD ACROSS CLARK AND FAR ERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES. ADDITIONALLY...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WHERE TWO OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MERGE IN THE VICINITY OF LAS VEGAS. THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT MAY REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY LOW THAT WW 650 COULD BE CANCELLED EARLY. LATEST SFC/RADAR DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTION OVER NWRN AZ MOVING WWD ACROSS CLARK COUNTY NV AND FAR ERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY CA. DESPITE WELL DEFINED CB/S ON RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE OUTFLOW OVER CLARK COUNTY...WEAKENING RADAR TRENDS ALONG WITH DIURNAL LOSS OF HEATING/STABILIZATION SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT TO ONLY ISOLATED/BRIEF OCCURRENCES FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. IF CURRENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS CONTINUE THEN WW 650 MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY. ..CROSBIE.. 07/17/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SLC...PSR...VEF... 34311591 36361598 37061577 37221463 37161316 36911314 36611436 35561458 34871399 34291391 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 17 03:06:20 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 16 Jul 2004 22:06:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407170306.i6H36OX06634@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 170305 SWOMCD SPC MCD 170305 NDZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-170400- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1720 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1005 PM CDT FRI JUL 16 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MT/WRN ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 651... VALID 170305Z - 170400Z OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS DIMINISHING AND WW WILL LIKELY BE CANCELLED WITHIN THE HOUR. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND RESULTANT DECREASE IN LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...INSTABILITY HAS DIMINISHED OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO...LEADING TO A RAPID DEMISE IN ONGOING STORMS OVER ERN MT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT MAIN AREA OF FORCING AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH/MCV IS CURRENTLY SHIFTING SEWD ACROSS SWRN MANITOBA INTO CNTRL ND WHERE ENVIRONMENT IS CONSIDERABLY MORE STABLE. THEREFORE...IT APPEARS THAT OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT HAS DIMINISHED SUCH THAT WW 651 MAY BE CANCELLED WITHIN THE HOUR. ..MEAD.. 07/17/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...TFX... 47660936 48240530 47920128 46090127 45050938 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 17 07:19:39 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 17 Jul 2004 02:19:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407170719.i6H7JhX07150@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 170719 SWOMCD SPC MCD 170718 MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-170815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1721 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0218 AM CDT SAT JUL 17 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AR / NERN LA / MS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 652... VALID 170718Z - 170815Z ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF WW...SEVERE THREAT OVER MUCH OF WW HAS DECREASED. WW WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 17/08Z. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONGEST STORMS ACROSS SERN AR ATTM...WITHIN AXIS OF MORE UNSTABLE AIR WHICH EXTENDS SWD INTO LA / FAR SWRN MS. MORE STABLE AIRMASS -- AND THUS WEAKER CONVECTION -- IS INDICATED ACROSS THE MS RIVER INTO W CENTRAL MS...WHERE EARLIER CONVECTION OCCURRED. ALTHOUGH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY EXISTS ACROSS SERN AR / NERN LA AND SWRN MS -- ROUGHLY THE WRN HALF OF WW...DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD IS SOMEWHAT WEAK -- PARTICULARLY AT MID-LEVELS WHERE ONLY 15 TO 20 KT FLOW IS INDICATED. THIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT LARGE-SCALE CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY UNFAVORABLE FOR ANY MORE THAN ISOLATED / MARGINALLY-SEVERE STORMS. IF AN ORGANIZED COLD POOL -- AND AN ASSOCIATED LINE OF STORMS ALONG LEADING EDGE -- COULD EVOLVE FROM STORMS OVER SERN AR ATTM...THREAT FOR GUSTY / MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS COULD INCREASE SOMEWHAT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS REGION FOR ANY MESOSCALE INDICATIONS OF AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT...BUT ATTM NEW WW IS NOT EXPECTED AFTER THE 17/08Z EXPIRATION OF WW 652. ..GOSS.. 07/17/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LZK...LCH...SHV... 34239179 33529110 31439017 30979098 31169190 32469267 33839262 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 17 18:39:17 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 17 Jul 2004 13:39:17 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407171839.i6HIdJX01550@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 171838 SWOMCD SPC MCD 171838 COZ000-172145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1722 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0138 PM CDT SAT JUL 17 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CO FRONT RANGE AND CENTRAL CO MTNS CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 171838Z - 172145Z LOCALIZED THREAT OF 2"/HR RAINFALL RATES WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CO FRONT RANGE AND ADJACENT AREAS THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. AT 18Z...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD OVER THE MTNS OF CENTRAL CO EWD TOWARD THE FRONT RANGE BETWEEN COS AND BOULDER WITH DIURNAL HEATING. MOIST ENVIRONMENT IS RESULTING IN LOW TO MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA /MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG AT 18Z/. SYNOPTICALLY...AREA IS LOCATED NEAR STRONG 500MB RIDGE AXIS LOCATED FROM CENTRAL NM NNWWD ACROSS WRN CO AND INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. MID-LEVEL MOIST PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH THE SW MONSOON HAS BECOME ENTRAINED WITH THE RIDGE...WITH 700MB DEWPOINTS IN THE 6-8C RANGE FROM THE SRN GREAT BASIN EWD ACROSS MUCH OF CO. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM 24 HOURS AGO AT DENVER...BUT REMAIN SUFFICIENT NEAR 1.25" FOR HEAVY RAIN CONCERNS GIVEN EXTREMELY SLOW STORM MOTIONS. PROFILER AT PLATTEVILLE INDICATES MEAN SFC-6KM WIND SPEED OF 2 KT...WHICH SHOULD REMAIN LOW THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN UPPER RIDGE LOCATION. MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND SLOW STORM MOTIONS WILL LIKELY YIELD LOCALIZED RAINFALL RATES UP TO 2"/HR WITH STRONGER CORES THROUGH THE PEAK HEATING PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. ..BANACOS.. 07/17/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...GJT... 38340454 39840466 40180489 40290530 40090720 39560717 38890628 38610597 37830553 37560533 37320501 37340470 37860445 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 17 18:49:18 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 17 Jul 2004 13:49:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407171849.i6HInJX03933@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 171848 SWOMCD SPC MCD 171848 GAZ000-172015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1723 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0148 PM CDT SAT JUL 17 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 171848Z - 172015Z ...A FEW PULSE SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SERN GA THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AS THREAT SHOULD BE ISOLATED AND SEVERE WIND THREAT WITHIN STORMS SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED. SUNNY SKIES INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO NEAR 90 DEGREES. ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT STEEP...DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S ALONG WITH DIURNAL HEATING WAS YIELDING MLCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG. ALTHOUGH THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS AT 20-25 KT...DEEP WLY TROPOSPHERIC WINDS AT 10-20 KT AND A WEAK COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THE EWD MOVING STORMS MAY BE SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW SHORT LIVED DOWNBURSTS. ..IMY.. 07/17/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE... 30918195 30788353 31278383 33098351 33208310 33078228 32588206 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 17 22:03:11 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 17 Jul 2004 17:03:11 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407172203.i6HM3IX25051@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 172202 SWOMCD SPC MCD 172201 OKZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-180030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1724 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0501 PM CDT SAT JUL 17 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN CO...WRN OK PANHANDLE...WRN TX PANHANDLE...AND NERN NM CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 172201Z - 180030Z ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF SERN CO...THE WRN OK/TX PANHANDLES...AND NERN NM. LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER CORES. LIMITED COVERAGE OF SEVERE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE WW. AT 21Z...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION SWWD INTO ERN CO...WITH A MOIST LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW PRESENT SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS INTO SERN CO/NERN NM. UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL NM NWWD INTO THE NRN ROCKIES IS SUPPORTING NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW OF 25-30 KT ACROSS ERN CO SEWD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE...AND SFC-6KM SHEAR VALUES OF 30-35 KT. PRESENCE OF LOW 60S DEWPOINTS ACROSS SERN CO...FAR NERN NM...AND THE PANHANDLES IS CONTRIBUTING TO 100MB MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG AND MINIMAL CIN DURING THE PEAK HEATING PERIOD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS REGION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD SUSTAIN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND STORM CLUSTERS MOVING SSEWD FROM SERN CO ACROSS NERN NM AND THE WRN PANHANDLES THROUGH THIS EVENING. A FEW EMBEDDED SEVERE/LONG-LIVED CELLS MAY CONTAIN LARGE HAIL OR LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS WITH WET MICROBURSTS. HOWEVER...WEAK LAPSE RATES 6-6.5 C/KM AND HIGH WBZ HEIGHTS SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL EXTENT OF ACTIVITY EXCEEDING SEVERE LIMITS. ..BANACOS.. 07/17/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AMA...PUB...ABQ... 35270205 35080351 35550475 36410512 37590506 37780440 37900298 37390211 36480202 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 17 23:26:26 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 17 Jul 2004 18:26:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407172326.i6HNQXX13283@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 172325 SWOMCD SPC MCD 172325 LAZ000-TXZ000-180130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1725 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0625 PM CDT SAT JUL 17 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN TX THROUGH NRN AND CNTRL LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 172325Z - 180130Z SOME THREAT FOR ISOLATED WIND GUSTS EXISTS WITH STRONGER STORMS DEVELOPING SWD THROUGH NRN LA. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP WWD THROUGH ERN AND CNTRL TX. THREAT MAY PERSIST THROUGH MID EVENING BEFORE ACTIVITY BEGINS AN OVERALL DECREASE WITH THE ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING. UNLESS STORMS BEGIN TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZING INTO LINES OR A LARGER CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. THIS EVENING A WEAK SURFACE FRONT/TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NRN LA WSWWD THROUGH CNTRL TX NEAR KILEEN. THE ATMOSPHERE S OF THIS BOUNDARY HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE AROUND 2500 J/KG. HOWEVER... WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES HAVE RESULTED IN LAPSE RATES WITH VALUES GENERALLY AOB 6.5 C/KM IN THE 3-6 KM LAYER. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW TOWERING CUMULUS INCREASING ALONG THE BOUNDARY ACROSS CNTRL THROUGH ERN TX AND ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. WV IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS AN MCV MOVING SEWD THROUGH NRN TX...AND ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY BEGIN TO INTERSECT TX PORTION OF FRONT WITHIN NEXT COUPLE HOURS. MODEST NWLY FLOW ALOFT WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR GENERALLY AOB 30 KT WILL SUPPORT MULTICELL STORMS. CAP INCREASES WITH WRN EXTENT INTO TX ...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE WHICH MAY LIMIT COVERAGE TO ISOLATED OR WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS. ..DIAL.. 07/17/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX... 31139724 31709531 32539300 32189185 31059229 30469554 30459703 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 18 22:08:00 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 18 Jul 2004 17:08:00 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407182207.i6IM7vX24865@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 182207 SWOMCD SPC MCD 182206 MNZ000-NDZ000-190030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1726 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0506 PM CDT SUN JUL 18 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND THROUGH NWRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 182206Z - 190030Z THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM PARTS OF ERN ND THROUGH NW MN BY 23-00Z. SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL...ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN INITIAL THREATS. WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THIS EVENING A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NERN ND SWWD TO A SURFACE LOW IN S CNTRL ND. A BOUNDARY INDUCED BY EARLIER CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION OVER MN EXTENDS N-S ALONG THE ND-MN BORDER. THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE ACROSS ERN ND WITH MLCAPE FROM 2500 TO 3000 J/KG. THE THETA-E GRADIENT IS SHARP E OF THE N-S BOUNDARY INTO WRN MN WHERE MLCAPE DROPS OFF TO LESS THAN 1500 J/KG. MODEST SWLY LOW LEVEL JET MAY INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING SEWD INTO ND THIS EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN DESTABILIZATION EWD WITH TIME INTO NWRN MN. STORMS MAY DEVELOP NEXT HOUR OR TWO IN CONVERGENCE ZONE ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS NERN ND. SHEAR PROFILES EXHIBIT VEERING IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY FROM 100 TO 150 M2/S2 AND 0-6 KM SHEAR 35 TO 40 KT...SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL INCREASE FURTHER AS THE LOW LEVEL JET UNDERGOES SOME STRENGTHENING THIS EVENING. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN ZONE OF INCREASING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND DESTABILIZATION OVER NWRN MN. ..DIAL.. 07/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... 46289800 47189921 47899828 48799738 48789633 47779553 46579603 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 18 23:14:13 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 18 Jul 2004 18:14:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407182314.i6INECX09118@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 182313 SWOMCD SPC MCD 182313 SDZ000-NEZ000-190115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1727 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0613 PM CDT SUN JUL 18 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN THROUGH CNTRL SD AND N CNTRL-NERN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 182313Z - 190115Z STORMS MAY INTENSIFY AS THEY DEVELOP SSEWD INTO CNTRL SD. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY ACROSS N CNTRL THROUGH WRN PART OF NE NEB. ISOLATED MOSTLY HIGH BASED STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MICROBURSTS WILL EXIST THROUGH MID EVENING. THIS EVENING ISOLATED HIGH BASED STORMS WERE DEVELOPING IN VICINITY OF A BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SRN ND SWWD THROUGH NWRN SD. STRONG MIXING S OF THIS BOUNDARY HAS RESULTED IN INVERTED-V BOUNDARY LAYER WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 100 AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS NEAR 50 ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF SD. A N-S TROUGH ALSO EXTENDS ACROSS CNTRL SD FROM NEAR MOBRIDGE SWD TO NEAR PIERRE. E OF THIS BOUNDARY...RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONGER INSTABILITY EXIST WITH AN AXIS OF MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG. STORMS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING IN N CNTRL SD MAY INTENSIFY AS THEY DEVELOP SSEWD INTO THE WRN EDGE OF THE STRONGER INSTABILITY NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHER CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ALONG AN E-W BOUNDARY FROM N CNTRL NEB WWD THROUGH NWRN NEB. THE CONVECTION ALONG THE ERN PART OF THIS BOUNDARY IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF THE STRONGER INSTABILITY. THIS ACTIVITY MAY ALS INTENSIFY AS IT DEVELOPS SSEWD NEXT FEW HOURS. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THIS AREA ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED AND SHOULD BEGIN AN OVERALL DECREASE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS LATER THIS EVENING. ..DIAL.. 07/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR... 43450050 44440148 44970178 45410136 45840063 45519993 44099913 41699833 41419941 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 19 01:54:26 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 18 Jul 2004 20:54:26 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407190154.i6J1sOX17665@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 190153 SWOMCD SPC MCD 190153 SDZ000-NEZ000-190400- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1728 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0853 PM CDT SUN JUL 18 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SD THROUGH WRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 653... VALID 190153Z - 190400Z THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND EXPECTED TO PERSIST NEXT COUPLE HOURS...MAINLY WITH SUPERCELLS MOVING SEWD FROM SERN SD INTO EXTREME WRN MN. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING FARTHER EAST ACROSS NRN MN. THIS EVENING ISOLATED SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOPED ALONG A NE-SW ORIENTED BOUNDARY CONTINUE SE THROUGH SERN ND AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MIGHT EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO EXTREME WRN MN. THE STORMS REMAIN IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL VEERING...0-1 KM SRH FROM 150 TO 200 M2/S2 AND 0-6 KM SHEAR FROM 40 TO 50 KT. STORMS ARE ALSO CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE AXIS OF STRONGEST INSTABILITY. THE 00Z ABERDEEN SOUNDING SUGGESTS AS THE STORMS CONTINUE SEWD...THEY WILL EVENTUALLY ENCOUNTER AN INCREASINGLY HOSTILE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WITH INCREASING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...ESPECIALLY AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO COOL. THE MODEST 20-25 WSWLY LOW LEVEL JET MAY STRENGTHEN A LITTLE FURTHER AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN NWLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES SEWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. THIS WILL ENHANCE LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND LIFT ON COOL SIDE OF N-S GRADIENT ALONG THE ND-MN BORDER...AND PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS NRN AND CNTRL MN LATER THIS EVENING. ..DIAL.. 07/19/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR... 43450050 44440148 44970178 45410136 45840063 45519993 44099913 41699833 41419941 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 19 03:44:53 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 18 Jul 2004 22:44:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407190344.i6J3inX15636@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 190344 SWOMCD SPC MCD 190343 SDZ000-NEZ000-190445- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1729 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1043 PM CDT SUN JUL 18 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN ND...NRN AND CNTRL MN AND NERN SD CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 653... VALID 190343Z - 190445Z SURFACE BASED SUPERCELLS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS SERN ND. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP FARTHER EAST ACROSS NRN MN WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...BUT THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ELEVATED WITH THREAT OF MAINLY HAIL. WW 653 WILL LIKELY BE CANCELLED BY 04Z. SUPERCELL STORMS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS THEY ENCOUNTER AN INCREASINGLY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ACROSS SERN ND INTO NRN SD. FOCUS FOR NEW DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY SHIFT EAST INTO MN WHERE WEAKER CAP AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION MAY PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF NEW STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL. ..DIAL.. 07/19/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR... 43450050 44440148 44970178 45410136 45840063 45519993 44099913 41699833 41419941 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 19 17:28:29 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 19 Jul 2004 12:28:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407191728.i6JHSRX15529@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 191727 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191726 ILZ000-IAZ000-WIZ000-MNZ000-192000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1730 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1226 PM CDT MON JUL 19 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MN...SWRN WI AND ERN/CNTRL IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 191726Z - 192000Z SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE ACROSS SERN MN AND ERN/CNTRL IA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A WEATHER WATCH MAY BE NEEDED BY 21Z. A CLUSTER OF BACKBUILDING ELEVATED TSTMS HAS BEEN MAINTAINED THROUGH THE MORNING ACROSS WCNTRL WI ALONG THE NOSE OF A SWLY LOW LEVEL JET. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS WILL SUSTAIN A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY ALONG THE WI/MN BORDER/ MS RVR VLY INTO MID-AFTERNOON. MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS A 1007 MB LOW VCNTY KMSP WITH A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING SWWD INTO NWRN IA. WARM SECTOR BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND BOUNDARY ALONG THE MS RVR WILL CONTINUE TO HEAT THIS AFTERNOON. AIR MASS WILL BE CAPPED THROUGH ABOUT 21Z...BUT RUC40 FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT A SURFACE PARCEL WITH 85/70 TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT RESPECTIVELY WILL RESULT IN A CAP BREECH. GIVEN LOCALIZED SURFACE CONVERGENCE VCNTY THE BOUNDARIES/LOW...SURFACE BASED INITIATION WILL REMAIN LIKELY OVER SERN MN BY 21Z. UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT INTO ONE OR MORE MCS/S WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS ERN/CNTRL IA. GIVEN MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7 DEGREES C/KM AND A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...MLCAPES WILL RANGE FROM 2500-3500 J/KG AND WILL SET THE STAGE FOR RAPID TSTM DEVELOPMENT. SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW BENEATH MODEST NWLY FLOW ALOFT /40+ KTS/ WILL CREATE 0-6KM SHEAR OF BETTER THAN 40 KTS AND WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ISOLD VERY LARGE HAIL /2-2.5 INCHES/ MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER SUPERCELLS. ISOLD TORNADOES COULD ALSO OCCUR WITH THE MORE DISCRETE CELLS/EARLY DEVELOPMENT...THOUGH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SOMEWHAT WEAK. ..RACY.. 07/19/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX... 41329388 44679413 44919292 44159159 42569046 41779033 41319119 41349241 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 19 18:02:57 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 19 Jul 2004 13:02:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407191802.i6JI2qX30362@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 191802 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191801 NCZ000-SCZ000-192030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1731 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0101 PM CDT MON JUL 19 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CAROLINAS CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 191801Z - 192030Z WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS APPROACHING SEVERE LIMITS THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ERN CAROLINAS. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. A FEW TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A WEAK SURFACE FRONT/LEE TROUGH SITUATED ACROSS CNTRL SECTIONS OF NC/SC. AIR MASS VCNTY/EAST OF THESE TSTMS HAS BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE WITH LIFTED INDICES NEAR MINUS 7C. TSTMS MAY BECOME MORE FOCUSED ACROSS THE ERN CAROLINAS AS UPSTREAM MIDLEVEL TROUGH AXIS TRANSLATES TOWARD THE COAST. 30-40 KT H5 WINDS ON SE SIDE OF THIS TROUGH MAY AUGMENT UPDRAFTS...AND A FEW OF THE TSTMS MAY BECOME STRONGER AS THEY MOVE TOWARD THE COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE OVERALL NEGATIVE FACTOR FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE THE SOMEWHAT WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...MAGNITUDE OF DRY AIR IN THE MIDLEVELS MAY RESULT IN ISOLD WIND GUSTS APPROACHING SEVERE LIMITS WITH THE STRONGER TSTMS. ..RACY.. 07/19/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE... 33558099 35007949 36057808 35747653 34627768 32778067 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 19 18:17:05 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 19 Jul 2004 13:17:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407191816.i6JIGxX04241@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 191816 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191816 MTZ000-IDZ000-192045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1732 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0116 PM CDT MON JUL 19 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN ID AND WRN MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 191816Z - 192045Z THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS NRN ID INTO FAR WRN MT DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH LONGER-LIVED/STRONGER CELLS. UPPER RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EWD AND FLATTEN IN RESPONSE TO STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NEWD INTO SRN BRITISH COLUMBIA. LEADING EDGE OF MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS CURRENTLY TRAVERSING NRN ID IS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING LINE OF THUNDERSTORM CELLS ACROSS THE BITTERROOT RANGE. LARGE-SCALE FORCING WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN A BAND OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE PEAK HEATING PERIOD INTO WRN MT...WITH MOVEMENT ENEWD AT 15-20 KT. ETA FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SFC-6KM SHEAR OF 25-30 KT...WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW LONGER-LIVED STORMS. INSTABILITY IS PRESENTLY LIMITED ACROSS FAR WRN MT /100MB MLCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG / BUT SHOULD INCREASE TO 1000-1500 J/KG WITH CONTINUED SURFACE HEATING /TEMPS WARMING INTO THE 80S/. WBZ HEIGHTS AROUND 8 KFT SHOULD SUPPORT SEVERE HAIL WITH STRONGER CELLS AS STORMS PROGRESS THROUGH NRN ID AND INTO FAR WRN MT DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ..BANACOS.. 07/19/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TFX...MSO...OTX... 46031626 46921639 47501654 48081668 48551658 48831577 48961449 48631372 48201339 47221277 46751258 46421265 46091274 45761304 45571331 45421368 45281426 45201512 45401595 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 19 19:07:52 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 19 Jul 2004 14:07:52 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407191907.i6JJ7mX29519@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 191907 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191906 NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-192130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1733 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0206 PM CDT MON JUL 19 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CO FRONT RANGE AND ADJACENT PLAINS...AND SERN WY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 191906Z - 192130Z ISOLATED DRY MICROBURST POTENTIAL EXISTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF CO NWD INTO SERN WY. LOCALIZED NATURE OF DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE WW ISSUANCE. AT 1850Z...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE FROM SERN WY SSWWD ACROSS THE CO FRONT RANGE. REGION IS LOCATED JUST NE OF UPPER HIGH CENTER...BUT AMPLE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABILITY /700MB DEWPOINTS 4-6C/ IS YIELDING 100MB MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG WITH DIURNAL HEATING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. PLATTEVILLE PROFILER INDICATES DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW OF LESS THAN 10 KT...WITH A SLOW SEWD DRIFT OF THUNDERSTORM CELLS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN WEAK FLOW REGIME AND CAPPING INVERSION ACROSS THE ADJACENT PLAINS...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD NOT PERSIST FAR FROM ELEVATED TERRAIN. POTENTIAL FOR DRY MICROBURSTS WILL EXIST AS STORMS DISSIPATE EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE THROUGH THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY AS SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS INCREASE TO GREATER THAN 45F BY LATE AFTERNOON. RUC MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE DOWNDRAFT CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG AT DEN BETWEEN 22-01Z. WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND SHORT-LIVED NATURE OF INDIVIDUAL STORMS SHOULD MITIGATE THREAT OF SEVERE HAIL. ..BANACOS.. 07/19/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...CYS... 40370548 41510503 42430489 42550423 41100390 40490369 40050370 39570372 38180449 38180485 38710525 39250556 39700565 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 19 20:28:04 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 19 Jul 2004 15:28:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407192028.i6JKS5X03883@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 192026 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192026 ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-192230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1734 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0326 PM CDT MON JUL 19 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IA...SWRN WI AND NWRN IL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 655... VALID 192026Z - 192230Z THE SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE TORNADO WATCH. ORIGINAL ELEVATED SUPERCELL THAT GAVE TWO-INCH HAILSTONES AT THE LA CROSSE WEATHER OFFICE WEAKENED...BUT OTHER TSTMS HAVE FORMED ALONG ITS WRN FLANK. CHARACTER OF RAPIDLY COOLING CLOUD TOPS AND EXPANDING ANVILS SUGGEST THIS NEW ACTIVITY IS MORE THAN LIKELY SURFACE BASED. RECENT MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS A THERMAL RIDGE /UPPER 80S/ ACROSS ERN IA AND A RUC40 PROXIMITY SOUNDING SUGGEST LITTLE IF ANY INHIBITION REMAINING. STRONGEST MASS CONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY FOCUS ALONG WRN PERIPHERY OF THE CURRENT TSTMS FROM NERN IA SWD TO ALONG/WEST OF THE MS RVR FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. VSBL SATELLITE SHOWS A SHARP WRN EDGE TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER CU FIELD ALONG INTERSTATE 35 AND THIS LIKELY DENOTES ERN EDGE OF THE STRONGER CAP. EAST OF THE MS RIVER...TSTM BLOWOFF HAS AFFECTED BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AND THUS CONVECTIVE INITIATION POTENTIAL. WILL MAINTAIN THE WATCH ACROSS NWRN IL...BUT HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF DEEP MOIST CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS ERN/CNTRL IA THROUGH THE EVENING. GIVEN THE SSWLY LOW LEVEL WINDS BENEATH MODEST AND SHARPLY VEERING MIDLEVEL FLOW...SUBSTANTIAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR EXISTS ACROSS THE WEATHER WATCH FOR SUPERCELLS. THIS COMBINED WITH THE STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE SUGGEST THAT HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. ISOLD TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS WELL GIVEN SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL VEERING AND MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY. ..RACY.. 07/19/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX... 40689218 43439274 43409000 40718976 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 19 21:10:19 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 19 Jul 2004 16:10:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407192110.i6JLADX23944@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 192109 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192109 NEZ000-SDZ000-192315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1735 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0409 PM CDT MON JUL 19 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/WRN NEB AND FAR SWRN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 192109Z - 192315Z ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOCALIZED NATURE OF SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE WW ISSUANCE. SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 FROM BBW WNWWD TO THE SWRN SD/NEB PANHANDLE. VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES TOWERING CU HAVE BECOME BETTER DEFINED ALONG SURFACE TROUGH FROM BBW TO CDR. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS FIELDS INDICATE A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN ABSOLUTE CINH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL WY EWD INTO CENTRAL NEB...WHICH MAY PERMIT FOR ISOLATED CONVECTIVE STORMS ALONG ESE-WNW ORIENTED CONVERGENCE ZONE/SURFACE TROUGH DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. OTHERWISE...STORMS SPREADING SLOWLY EWD FROM FAR ERN WY WILL AFFECT THE NEB PANHANDLE NWD INTO THE BLACK HILLS AREA. SYNOPTICALLY...REGION IS LOCATED ON NERN PERIPHERY OF STRONG FOUR CORNERS UPPER RIDGE. FLOW FIELDS ARE NOT STRONG...WLY AT 5-10KT PER AREA VAD WIND DATA AND PROFILERS FROM THE SFC THRU 5KM AGL. THIS HAS RESULTED IN WARM 700MB TEMPERATURES ADVECTING EWD ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL NEB DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS /AROUND +14C/. ANTICIPATE A FEW SLOW MOVING T-STORMS IN DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER ENVIRONMENT /SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AROUND 50F/...WITH THE CHANCE OF HIGHLY LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH DRY MICROBURSTS. ..BANACOS.. 07/19/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...UNR...CYS... 40899919 40980038 41290261 41560335 41860370 42180392 42730398 44480390 44320240 43110139 42560044 42239953 42039903 41719858 41379851 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 19 21:51:17 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 19 Jul 2004 16:51:17 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407192151.i6JLpBX11553@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 192150 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192149 IDZ000-ORZ000-WAZ000-200015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1736 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0449 PM CDT MON JUL 19 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN ORE...SERN WA...AND NWRN ID CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 192149Z - 200015Z THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NERN ORE. ACTIVITY WILL PROGRESS NEWD AT 20-25 KT TOWARD SERN WA AND WRN/NWRN ID DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WW MAY BE REQUIRED. SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN 40-45KT 500MB FLOW CONTINUES NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL ORE AT 2130Z. FORCING PROVIDED BY THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S AND 100MB MLCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG HAS RESULTED IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COVERING THE ERN HALF OF ORE. PDT VAD INDICATES 40-50KT MID-UPPER LEVEL SSWLY FLOW...AND SFC-6KM SHEAR VALUES IN EXCESS OF 40KT. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...OF 7-8 C/KM IN 700-500MB LAYER PER RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS...SHOULD SUPPORT STRONG UPDRAFTS AND HAIL. CONDITIONS SUGGEST LONG-LIVED STORMS WITH THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL SPREADING NEWD TOWARD FAR SERN WA/WRN AND NWRN ID DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIOD. ..BANACOS.. 07/19/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MSO...BOI...OTX...PDT... 45281666 44641731 44041827 43932010 44172065 44502085 44842081 45582030 45852012 46741930 47251875 47581814 47731751 47751691 47571647 47331580 46731519 46221547 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 19 23:32:39 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 19 Jul 2004 18:32:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407192332.i6JNWWX19936@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 192331 SWOMCD SPC MCD 192331 WIZ000-MNZ000-200100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1737 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0631 PM CDT MON JUL 19 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...E CNTRL MN THROUGH NRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 192331Z - 200100Z STORMS MAY POSE SOME THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF ISOLATED TORNADO AS THEY DEVELOP SWD THROUGH NRN WI AND E CNTRL MN NEXT 2-3 HOURS. THIS EVENING AN E-W ORIENTED SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MI WWD THROUGH NRN WI. OTHER MORE SUBTLE BOUNDARIES ALSO EXIST FARTHER N ACROSS PARTS OF NE MN. THE ATMOSPHERE S OF THESE BOUNDARY REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. DESPITE PRESENCE OF SOME DIRECTIONAL LOW LEVEL SHEAR... OVERALL SHEAR MAGNITUDE IN THE LOWEST 3 KM REMAINS MODEST OWING TO ABSENCE OF A LOW LEVEL JET. THE 0-3 KM DIRECTIONAL SHEAR MAY DECREASE FURTHER AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING SWD THROUGH NRN WI. HOWEVER...SHEAR IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION. THE STRONGER STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO POSE SOME THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND...A BRIEF TORNADO AND POSSIBLY HAIL AS THEY DEVELOP SWD. OWING TO MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...OVERALL HAIL THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR PARTICULARLY HIGH AND TORNADO THREAT APPEARS LIMITED BY WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR. ..DIAL.. 07/19/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX... 45098862 45649198 46259275 46499213 46059016 45748821 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 20 00:25:14 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 19 Jul 2004 19:25:14 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407200025.i6K0P7X05981@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 200024 SWOMCD SPC MCD 200024 IDZ000-MTZ000-ORZ000-WAZ000-200200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1738 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0724 PM CDT MON JUL 19 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ORE...FAR SERN WA...CENTRAL ID...AND FAR WRN MT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 656... VALID 200024Z - 200200Z CONTINUE WW. AT 21/0010Z...SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED OVER BAKER COUNTY ORE WITH OTHER SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EXTENDING FROM IDAHO COUNTY ID SWWD TO 40W BOI. CELL MOTION WAS GENERALLY 225/25 KT. MID-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT NNEWD ACROSS CENTRAL ORE...EMBEDDED IN BROADER BAND OF SWLY 40-45KT 500MB FLOW. THE 21Z RUC INDICATES MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND THERMAL TROUGHING MOVING ENEWD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA...WHICH SHOULD SUSTAIN LARGE-SCALE SUPPORT FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL ID AND INTO FAR WRN MT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. INSTABILITY REMAINS SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE CONVECTION...WITH AXIS OF 100MB MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG EXTENDING FROM FAR ERN ORE NEWD INTO WRN MT. COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S/...THREAT FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF SEVERE STORMS WILL GRADUAL SHIFT FROM NERN ORE INTO CENTRAL ID/FAR WRN MT THROUGH 03Z. ..BANACOS.. 07/20/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PIH...MSO...BOI...OTX...PDT...MFR... 42112017 45742016 48251475 44641469 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 20 18:11:13 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 20 Jul 2004 13:11:13 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407201813.i6KID3X15478@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 201810 SWOMCD SPC MCD 201809 WIZ000-202015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1739 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0109 PM CDT TUE JUL 20 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN-ERN WI CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 201809Z - 202015Z TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS NRN AND ERN WI THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER TSTMS...BUT A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. TSTMS HAVE BEGUN FORMING THIS AFTERNOON ALONG 1/ WEAK WARM FRONT AND 2/ DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES SITUATED ACROSS NRN WI. VSBL IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS THE CU FIELD BEGINNING TO SHARPEN VCNTY LAKE BREEZES IN ERN WI. AIR MASS HAS BECOME ESSENTIALLY UNCAPPED AND LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR TSTM INITIATION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO HEAT. STEEPEST MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES EXIST ALONG/WEST OF THE MS RVR PER MORNING/CURRENT PROXIMITY RUC SOUNDINGS. ALSO...VERTICAL SHEAR IS GENERALLY AOB 25 KTS. THESE MARGINAL PARAMETERS SUGGEST THAT THE TSTMS WILL MAINLY BE MULTICELLS AND SOMEWHAT SHORT-LIVED. ISOLD STRONG TSTMS MAY PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS OR HAIL... BUT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREATS APPEAR SUCH THAT A WW WILL NOT BE WARRANTED. ..RACY.. 07/20/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...MPX... 42638963 43799031 44529226 45679235 45709083 45428929 43978809 42678811 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 20 19:18:07 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 20 Jul 2004 14:18:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407201917.i6KJHwX10201@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 201917 SWOMCD SPC MCD 201916 IAZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-202115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1740 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0216 PM CDT TUE JUL 20 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN SD...NERN NEB...NWRN IA...EXTREME SWRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 201916Z - 202115Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON AND A WW APPEARS LIKELY BY 21Z. VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO. VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES CU FIELD BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED OVER N CENTRAL NEB FROM BLAINE INTO ROCK COUNTIES. OTHER CU FIELDS WERE DEVELOPING FARTHER N BETWEEN PIR AND HON. ENVIRONMENT IS BECOMING VERY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE NOW 2000-3000 J/KG E OF DRYLINE AND ALONG WARM FRONT WHERE DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 70S F. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S F ARE REQUIRED TO ERASE CIN. THEREFORE...MOST LIKELY AREA OF INITIATION WILL BE ALONG DRYLINE AND IN VICINITY OF SURFACE LOW WHERE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES ARE LOCATED. ENHANCED CONVERGENCE AS WELL AS RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WARM FRONT WILL FURTHER STRENGTHEN FORCING AND POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS. PRESENCE OF MID 70S F DEWPOINTS OVER SERN SD / ERN NEB AND WRN IA ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S F / LOWER 90S F SUGGEST SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL AS BOUNDARY LAYER RH WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY LOW. ..JEWELL.. 07/20/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR... 44669914 44449981 42899957 41709965 41479591 43889573 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 20 20:31:23 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 20 Jul 2004 15:31:23 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407202031.i6KKVDX14301@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202028 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202028 SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-202230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1741 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0328 PM CDT TUE JUL 20 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME ERN MT...WRN AND CENTRAL ND...NRN AND N-CENTRAL SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 202028Z - 202230Z THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT...BUT LOW END SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER CENTRAL MT WILL CONTINUE MOVING EWD. ASSOCIATED LIFT AHEAD OF THIS WAVE IS ALREADY CAUSING THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER ERN MT WHERE INSTABILITY IS MINIMAL. WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN REPORTED WITH WEAK CONVECTION OVER SERN MT. STORMS WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN AS THEY MOVE INTO LARGER INSTABILITY ACROSS OVER WRN/CENTRAL DAKOTAS. WIND PROFILES ARE FAVORABLE FOR FORWARD PROPAGATING SYSTEMS WITH STRONG OUTFLOW. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND FORECAST STORMS MOTIONS IN EXCESS OF 30 KTS TO THE SE FURTHER SUGGEST DAMAGING WIND THREAT. ..JEWELL.. 07/20/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW... 45060459 48990496 49020042 44899913 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 20 22:36:49 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 20 Jul 2004 17:36:49 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407202236.i6KMadX04759@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202236 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202235 ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-202330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1742 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0535 PM CDT TUE JUL 20 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IL...ERN IA...AND SRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 202235Z - 202330Z STORMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM EXTREME SRN WI SWD INTO NRN IL AND POSSIBLE FAR ERN IA. WW MAY BE NEEDED SHORTLY. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN MCV CENTERED OVER EXTREME SERN MN MOVING SEWD. THE ATMOSPHERE S OF THIS FEATURE HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE WITH AN AXIS OF MLCAPE FROM 3000 TO 3500 J/KG FROM E CNTRL IA INTO NRN IL AND SRN WI. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DATA SHOW THE CAP HAS WEAKENED AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM THE MCV SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROMOTE NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT NEXT FEW HOURS. SHEAR PROFILES GENERALLY SUPPORT MULTICELLS...BUT ARE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME UPDRAFT ROTATION WITH 0-6 KM FROM 25 TO 30 KT. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. ..DIAL.. 07/20/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX... 41558815 41229061 42389138 43219000 42818819 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 20 23:09:38 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 20 Jul 2004 18:09:38 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407202309.i6KN9SX15901@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202308 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202308 ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-210115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1743 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0608 PM CDT TUE JUL 20 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN SD THROUGH NERN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 657... VALID 202308Z - 210115Z THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL...MICROBURSTS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED TORNADOES EXPECTED TO PERSIST ANOTHER FEW HOURS. EARLY THIS EVENING SCATTERED STORMS THAT DEVELOPED ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM SERN SD SWD THROUGH NERN NEB CONTINUE SLOWLY EAST. MANY OF THE STORMS HAVE...SO FAR...NOT BEEN VERY PERSISTENT...MOST LIKELY DUE TO MARGINAL CLOUD LAYER SHEAR WHICH IS PROMOTING OUTFLOW DOMINANCE. DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS ACTIVITY...THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS STRONGLY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE AROUND 3500 J/KG ALONG WITH A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...LOWER LCLS AND STRONGER LOW LEVEL SHEAR. HOWEVER... OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DATA ALSO SHOW A STRONGER CAP ACROSS FAR SERN SD AND EXTREME NE NEB. GIVEN THE SLOW STORM MOTIONS...IT REMAINS QUESTIONABLE WHETHER THE STORMS WILL SURVIVE INTO THE MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT BEFORE THE ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING FURTHER STRENGTHENS THE CAP. ..DIAL.. 07/20/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX... 41558815 41229061 42389138 43219000 42818819 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 20 23:16:03 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 20 Jul 2004 18:16:03 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407202315.i6KNFxX17823@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202315 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202314 COR ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-210115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1743 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0614 PM CDT TUE JUL 20 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN SD THROUGH NERN NEB CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 657... VALID 202314Z - 210115Z CORRECTED FOR TYPE OF BOX REFERENCE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL...MICROBURSTS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED TORNADOES EXPECTED TO PERSIST ANOTHER FEW HOURS. EARLY THIS EVENING SCATTERED STORMS THAT DEVELOPED ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM SERN SD SWD THROUGH NERN NEB CONTINUE SLOWLY EAST. MANY OF THE STORMS HAVE...SO FAR...NOT BEEN VERY PERSISTENT...MOST LIKELY DUE TO MARGINAL CLOUD LAYER SHEAR WHICH IS PROMOTING OUTFLOW DOMINANCE. DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS ACTIVITY...THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS STRONGLY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE AROUND 3500 J/KG ALONG WITH A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...LOWER LCLS AND STRONGER LOW LEVEL SHEAR. HOWEVER... OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DATA ALSO SHOW A STRONGER CAP ACROSS FAR SERN SD AND EXTREME NE NEB. GIVEN THE SLOW STORM MOTIONS...IT REMAINS QUESTIONABLE WHETHER THE STORMS WILL SURVIVE INTO THE MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT BEFORE THE ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING FURTHER STRENGTHENS THE CAP. ..DIAL.. 07/20/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX... 41558815 41229061 42389138 43219000 42818819 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 20 23:32:23 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 20 Jul 2004 18:32:23 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407202332.i6KNWCX23505@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 202331 SWOMCD SPC MCD 202330 SDZ000-NEZ000-210100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1744 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0630 PM CDT TUE JUL 20 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN SD THROUGH NERN NEB CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 657... VALID 202330Z - 210100Z CORRECTED FOR TYPE OF BOX REFERENCE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL...MICROBURSTS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED TORNADOES EXPECTED TO PERSIST ANOTHER FEW HOURS. EARLY THIS EVENING SCATTERED STORMS THAT DEVELOPED ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM SERN SD SWD THROUGH NERN NEB CONTINUE SLOWLY EAST. MANY OF THE STORMS HAVE...SO FAR...NOT BEEN VERY PERSISTENT...MOST LIKELY DUE TO MARGINAL CLOUD LAYER SHEAR WHICH IS PROMOTING OUTFLOW DOMINANCE. DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS ACTIVITY...THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS STRONGLY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE AROUND 3500 J/KG ALONG WITH A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...LOWER LCLS AND STRONGER LOW LEVEL SHEAR. HOWEVER... OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DATA ALSO SHOW A STRONGER CAP ACROSS FAR SERN SD AND EXTREME NE NEB. GIVEN THE SLOW STORM MOTIONS...IT REMAINS QUESTIONABLE WHETHER THE STORMS WILL SURVIVE INTO THE MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT BEFORE THE ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING FURTHER STRENGTHENS THE CAP. ..DIAL.. 07/20/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF... 42069953 44369877 44469664 43329667 41789701 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 21 00:22:11 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 20 Jul 2004 19:22:11 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407210022.i6L0M8X09241@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 210021 SWOMCD SPC MCD 210020 NDZ000-SDZ000-210145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1745 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0720 PM CDT TUE JUL 20 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND ERN ND...NRN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 658... VALID 210020Z - 210145Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S F OVER ERN ND AND NWRN MN. THIS HAS DECREASED SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IN THESE AREAS INTO THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE. MUCH HIGHER INSTABILITY REMAINS TO THE W WITHIN N-S AXIS WITH 2000-3500 MLCAPE FROM BIS SWD INTO SD. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...WITH ONLY 15 KTS OF SLY FLOW AT 850 MB NOTED ON AREA PROFILERS. THEREFORE...QUESTION REMAINS WHETHER OR NOT STORMS CAN SUSTAIN THEMSELVES VERY FAR E WHERE MORE SUBSTANTIAL CIN REMAINS AND WILL BE INCREASING WITH TIME AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...HOWEVER...CHANCES ARE THAT STORMS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN ONCE THEY EXIT WW 658...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL / WIND WILL CERTAINLY REMAIN POSSIBLE. ..JEWELL.. 07/21/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR... 44980343 45820259 47740232 49010236 49019813 46469878 44979926 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 21 04:09:33 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 20 Jul 2004 23:09:33 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407210409.i6L49MX22232@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 210408 SWOMCD SPC MCD 210408 MNZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-210545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1746 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1108 PM CDT TUE JUL 20 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MN THROUGH EXTREME NRN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 210408Z - 210545Z STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EAST INTO SERN MN AND POSSIBLY EXTREME NRN IA. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE HAIL AND ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...AND IF TRENDS BEGIN TO INDICATE AN INCREASE IN INTENSITY...A WW MIGHT BE NEEDED. THIS EVENING A CLUSTER OF STRONG STORMS...MOSTLY ELEVATED...ARE MOVING EWD AND NEWD THROUGH SWRN MN. WEAK WARM FRONT WITH ATTENDANT INSTABILITY GRADIENT EXTENDS FROM ERN SD SEWD THROUGH CNTRL IA. SWLY LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 30 KT ACROSS IA...AND THIS WILL ENHANCE WARM ADVECTION AND LIFT ON COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY FROM SRN MN INTO NERN IA TONIGHT. THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6.5-7C/KM. THOUGH CLOUD LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR IS MARGINAL...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR SOME THREAT OF HAIL. ALSO RADAR DATA SHOWS A MID LEVEL CIRCULATION PERSISTS WITH CLUSTER OF STORMS MOVING EWD THROUGH JACKSON AND COTTONWOOD COUNTIES. THIS CLUSTER STILL APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED AND FORWARD PROPAGATING WHICH SUGGEST SOME THREAT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY STILL EXIST. ..DIAL.. 07/21/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX... 43219200 43349465 45049443 44999320 44269182 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 21 12:54:35 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 21 Jul 2004 07:54:35 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407211254.i6LCsQX17695@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 211253 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211253 ILZ000-WIZ000-211500- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1747 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0753 AM CDT WED JUL 21 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN WI/NRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 211253Z - 211500Z GUSTY...POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS...MAY BECOME INCREASING THREAT THIS MORNING. MID-LEVEL PERTURBATION EMBEDDED WITHIN TROPICAL MOIST PLUME EMANATING FROM THE LOWER LATITUDE PACIFIC HAS MAINTAINED CONVECTIVE CLUSTER THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD POOL/MESO HIGH APPEARS TO HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN THE PAST HOUR OR TWO ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN...AND IS ADVANCING EASTWARD AROUND 30 KT. WEAK MEAN FLOW REGIME AHEAD OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE...EMBEDDED WITHIN MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES ALONG THE CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER...IS MARGINALIZING OVERALL SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...AS MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH LOWER 70S DEW POINTS ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN/ NORTHERN ILLINOIS BEGINS TO WARM WITH DAYTIME HEATING...RISK OF STRONGER SURFACE GUSTS NEARING SEVERE LIMITS ARE POSSIBLE AS ACTIVITY APPROACHES THE MILWAUKEE/CHICAGO METROPOLITAN AREAS BY 15-16Z TIME FRAME. ..KERR.. 07/21/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN... 43358957 43668908 43228837 43058793 42308775 41838775 41868859 42268929 42338985 42728945 43038932 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 21 14:04:33 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 21 Jul 2004 09:04:33 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407211404.i6LE4KX13752@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 211403 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211403 MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-211600- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1748 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0903 AM CDT WED JUL 21 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IA...NRN/CNTRL IL...NRN/CNTRL IND AND EXTREME SWRN LOWER MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 211403Z - 211600Z THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING THREAT FOR A BOW ECHO WITH DAMAGING WINDS FROM ERN IA EWD INTO THE MIDWEST. A SEVERE TSTM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED BY 16Z. SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW A WELL-DEFINED MCV VCNTY OMA THAT WILL BE MOVING EWD THROUGH CNTRL IA THROUGH MID-DAY. 12Z ETA FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE MIDLEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL INCREASE DOWNSTREAM INTO THE 40-50 KT RANGE BY 18Z. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE CONSIDERING 40-45 KT FLOW IN THE 4-5 KM RANGE ON THE OMAHA VWP. MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BECOMING SITUATED W-E ACROSS CNTRL IA INTO NRN IL/SRN LAKE MI AREA. THOUGH THERE WILL BE CIRRUS/AC DEBRIS COVERING THE AREA THROUGH MIDDAY...IT APPEARS TO BE SUFFICIENTLY THIN FOR AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION. AS CINH ERODES...AIR MASS ALONG/SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. TSTMS SHOULD INCREASE IN INTENSITY LATE THIS MORNING ACROSS ERN IA AND/OR NWRN IL ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF CURRENT ACTIVITY. MAGNITUDE OF WLY MIDLEVEL FLOW...STRONG INSTABILITY AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE MCV SHOULD AID IN UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A POTENTIAL BOW ECHO. FEATURE SHOULD TRACK ALONG THE 850-500 THICKNESS VECTORS ESEWD ACROSS NRN/CNTRL IL INTO NRN/CNTRL IND AND PERHAPS A SMALL PART OF SWRN LOWER MI THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL. ..RACY.. 07/21/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILN...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX...DVN...DMX... 40869292 41819317 42229176 42448922 42468888 42288475 39898507 39848814 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 21 15:19:20 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 21 Jul 2004 10:19:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407211519.i6LFJAX16506@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 211518 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211518 OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-211645- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1749 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1018 AM CDT WED JUL 21 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN/ECNTRL IL...NRN THIRD OF IND...NWRN OH AND SRN LOWER MI CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE VALID 211518Z - 211645Z PARTS OF NERN/ECNTRL IL...THE NRN THIRD OF IND...NWRN OH AND SRN LOWER MI WILL BE UPGRADED TO A MODERATE RISK ON THE 1630Z DAY 1 UPDATE. 18Z SOUNDINGS HAVE BEEN REQUESTED AT ILX/APX/DTX. WELL-DEFINED MCV CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS SRN IA AND PROFILERS/VWP SHOW 30-40 KT MIDLEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE FEATURE. TSTMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL/SRN IA AND NRN IL AND WILL LIKELY INCREASE AS BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING CONTINUES. THESE TSTMS WILL BE EMBEDDED IN INCREASING WLY FLOW REGIME AS THE MCV TRACKS EWD THIS AFTERNOON. THUS...THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR ONE OR MORE BOW ECHOES TO EVOLVE ACROSS THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST. HIGHEST WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL...WITH SOME GUSTS EXCEEDING 70 KTS...WILL BE ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA. ..RACY.. 07/21/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX...DVN... 42038970 43088445 42568305 41538319 40508444 40348846 41048991 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 21 16:12:01 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 21 Jul 2004 11:12:01 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407211611.i6LGBmX09169@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 211610 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211610 MIZ000-211815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1750 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1110 AM CDT WED JUL 21 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/NRN LOWER MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 211610Z - 211815Z THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NRN/CNTRL LOWER MI. WW MAY BE REQUIRED. FULL INSOLATION HAS CONTRIBUTED TO RAPID DESTABILIZATION OF THE AIR MASS ACROSS MUCH OF LOWER MI LATE THIS MORNING WITH MLCAPES OF 2000-2500 J/KG IN PLACE ATTM. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS/RUC40 SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT ONLY A SMALL NEGATIVE AREA REMAINS AND WILL PROBABLY BE ERASED WITH A COUPLE MORE DEGREES OF WARMING. THUS...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY/DEVELOP THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. CURRENT VWPS SUGGEST THAT THE WIND FLOW THROUGH THE LOW-MIDLEVELS OF THE COLUMN ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG OVER LOWER MI ATTM. UPSTREAM...HOWEVER...GREEN BAY AND SULLIVAN WIND PROFILES SHOW THAT THE FLOW ABOVE 2 KM IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE. AS THE MCV ROTATING OVER CNTRL WI MOVES ENEWD TOWARD LOWER MI...THE LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELD AND...CONSEQUENTLY...DAMAGING WIND THREATS WILL INCREASE. HIGHER END WIND POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS SRN LOWER MI SWD INTO THE MIDWEST. ..RACY.. 07/21/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR... 43098618 44468655 45508606 45768462 45118327 43168367 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 21 18:03:17 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 21 Jul 2004 13:03:17 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407211803.i6LI34X30497@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 211802 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211801 INZ000-MIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-211930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1751 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0101 PM CDT WED JUL 21 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN IA INTO NRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 661... VALID 211801Z - 211930Z SO FAR...ORGANIZED TSTMS HAVE NOT DEVELOPED AS PLANNED...BUT SHOULD INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. ENVIRONMENT IS STILL CONDUCIVE TO A BOW ECHO SITUATION WITH DAMAGING WIND THE PRIMARY THREAT. 18Z DAVENPORT SOUNDING SHOWED A WARM LAYER IN THE H85-H7 LAYER AND IS LIKELY THE MAIN INHIBITING FACTOR IN SUSTAINED SURFACE BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT THUS FAR. MODIFYING THE SOUNDING FOR CONDITIONS DOWNSTREAM ACROSS NRN ILL WITH 85/77 STILL INDICATES ABOUT 75 J/KG INHIBITION. CONTINUED HEATING...HOWEVER...AND INCREASING CONVERGENCE ALONG W-E ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT/INTENSIFICATION ACROSS EXTREME SERN IA OR NWRN IL THIS AFTERNOON. WIND FIELDS REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE FOR BOW ECHO FORMATION. DAVENPORT SOUNDING SHOWED BETTER THAN 30 KTS OF UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW ABOVE 2 KM AGL. AS STORMS DEVELOP AND BECOME ALIGNED WITH THE WLY SHEAR VECTORS...A BOW ECHO IS LIKELY TO EVOLVE AND TRACK EWD ACROSS NRN IL...NRN IND AND EXTREME SRN LOWER MI THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH SOME GREATER THAN 70 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE. HAIL COULD ALSO OCCUR. AS THE SITUATION EVOLVES...WW MAY NEED TO BE REALIGNED/REISSUED FOR THE AREA AND DOWNSTREAM. ..RACY.. 07/21/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX...DVN...DMX...EAX... 40589330 42219332 42428597 40598612 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 21 18:31:21 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 21 Jul 2004 13:31:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407211831.i6LIV7X10231@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 211830 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211830 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-212030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1752 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0130 PM CDT WED JUL 21 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN ND...NERN SD...EXTREME W CENTRAL MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 211830Z - 212030Z ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND WIND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. OUTLOOK WILL BE AMENDED TO UPGRADE SEVERE PROBABILITIES AND A WW COULD BE REQUIRED. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CU DEVELOPING RAPIDLY WITHIN WEAK SURFACE TROUGH. STRONG HEATING WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE AREA WITH MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 DEVELOPING. FAIRLY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE IN PLACE DUE TO COOL 500 MB TEMPERATURES OF -8 TO -10. UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW INCREASING WITH HEIGHT WILL MAKE FOR LONG STRAIGHT LINE HODOGRAPHS AND SPLITTING SUPERCELLS. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY BY THE TIME THEY GET INTO NERN SD WHERE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS GREATEST. A FEW HAIL STONES COULD BE SIGNIFICANT. ..JEWELL.. 07/21/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS... 45100033 46359884 46399668 45359586 43969651 44809980 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 21 20:45:10 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 21 Jul 2004 15:45:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407212044.i6LKivX07841@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 212044 SWOMCD SPC MCD 212043 MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-NEZ000-212215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1753 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0343 PM CDT WED JUL 21 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SE SD...NW IA...SW MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 212043Z - 212215Z A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS SE SD...NW IA...AND SW MN. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WEATHER WATCH...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. A COUPLE OF STORMS HAVE INITIATED EAST OF SFD IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG NEAR THE ONGOING STORMS...AND INCREASING TO NEAR 3000 J/KG IN NW IA. POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE INCREASING WITH THESE STORMS AS THEY MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO THE MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER SE SD AND NW IA. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES IN THIS AREA ARE NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS IN THE AIRMASS OVER WW662...HOWEVER...RUC POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES OF 30 KTS...SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS. GIVEN LACK OF DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND WEAK FLOW IN THE LOWEST 3 KM...MAINLY MULTICELL TYPE STORMS ARE EXPECTED. ..LEVIT.. 07/21/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...UNR... 42639663 42629572 43129498 43649487 44109485 44229560 44149736 44099856 44089912 43869961 43059955 42969901 42859816 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 21 22:11:03 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 21 Jul 2004 17:11:03 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407212210.i6LMAnX12912@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 212210 SWOMCD SPC MCD 212209 MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-212245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1754 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0509 PM CDT WED JUL 21 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IL/NRN IND/MUCH OF SRN LOWER MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 663... VALID 212209Z - 212245Z SEVERE STORM OVER DUPAGE/WILL COUNTIES IL MOVING EWD INTO COOK COUNTY. IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...NEAR STORM ENVIRONMENT TORNADO THREAT PARAMETERS HAVE INCREASED SOME OVER THE LAST TWO HOURS. DAMAGING WIND THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS SRN LOWER MI. 21Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THIS STORM IS LOCATED ALONG AN E-W SURFACE BOUNDARY WITH THE AIR MASS OVER NERN-ERN IL AND NWRN IND REMAINS EXTREMELY UNSTABLE /MLCAPE 3500-4500 J/KG/. THIS STORM IS LOCATED ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY WHERE THE COMBINATION OF EXTREME INSTABILITY...0-1 KM SRH AROUND 100 M2/S2...AND MLLCL AROUND 900 M...MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. HOWEVER... WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE THREAT FOR LONG-LIVED TORNADIC SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. LINE OF STORMS OVER SW LOWER MI /CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM MECOSTA TO ALLEGAN COUNTIES MI/ IS MOVING TO THE ESE AT 30 KT. AIR MASS DOWNSTREAM IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND WILL SUPPORT DAMAGING WIND THREAT INTO THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS SRN LOWER MI. ..PETERS.. 07/21/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...LOT...ILX...DVN... 41918978 41698797 42658635 43818541 44858243 42538242 39578977 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 21 23:03:55 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 21 Jul 2004 18:03:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407212303.i6LN3iX02173@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 212303 SWOMCD SPC MCD 212302 MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-220100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1755 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0602 PM CDT WED JUL 21 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SD...NRN AND WRN MN...NERN NEB...NWRN IA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 662... VALID 212302Z - 220100Z ADDITIONAL WW COULD BE REQUIRED FOR ERN SD INTO WRN MN BY 2330Z. FORCING REMAINS WEAK ON THE LARGE SCALE...WITH ESTABLISHED STORMS SURVIVING OFF OF SR INFLOW AND NEW STORMS FORMING ON OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. MOST STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER NRN MN...AS LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION BRINGS IN MORE STABLE AIR FROM THE NW AND AIR MASS BEGINS TO STABILIZE AHEAD OF CURRENT STORMS. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR CONTINUED SEVERE WILL BE OVER ERN SD AND SWRN MN...WHERE STRONGER INSTABILITY EXISTS WITH MLCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG...AS WELL AS STRONGER WIND FIELDS IN THE LOWEST 3 KM FOR STRONGER STORM RELATIVE INFLOW. ..JEWELL.. 07/21/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...DMX...FGF...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF... 46159344 44789463 44249475 43049461 41889550 41869752 42369882 42979935 44019846 45219773 46759594 48179626 48989572 48979520 49399515 49369490 48849464 48559353 48589311 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 21 23:21:59 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 21 Jul 2004 18:21:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407212322.i6LNM7X08538@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 212321 SWOMCD SPC MCD 212320 OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-212345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1756 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0620 PM CDT WED JUL 21 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL-NRN IL/CENTRAL-NRN IND/CENTRAL-SRN LOWER MI/NWRN OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 663... VALID 212320Z - 212345Z NEW WW MAY BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT HOUR FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL-NRN IND INTO NWRN OH. CLUSTER OF STORMS...CURRENTLY OVER NWRN IND...IS MOVING TO THE EAST AT 25 KT...WHILE ADDITIONAL STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SWD ACROSS EAST CENTRAL IL WHERE THE AIR MASS IS EXTREMELY UNSTABLE /MLCAPE UP TO 4500 J/KG/. INCREASING WLY LOW-MID LEVEL WINDS THIS EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL-NRN IND INTO WRN OH IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW THE CONTINUATION OF ACTIVITY AS IT SPREADS EWD. FURTHER NORTH...THE LINE OF STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL-SRN LOWER MI WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD...REACHING ONTARIO BY 02-03Z. DOWNSTREAM MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES EWD AT 30-35 KT. ..PETERS.. 07/21/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX... 44128437 44868241 41188268 39738562 39278793 39438832 41398746 42448610 43038466 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 22 02:18:10 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 21 Jul 2004 21:18:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407220217.i6M2HuX04554@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 220217 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220216 OHZ000-MIZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-220315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1758 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0916 PM CDT WED JUL 21 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL-ERN IND INTO NWRN-WRN OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 664... VALID 220216Z - 220315Z DAMAGING WIND THREAT TO CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN IND INTO NWRN OH DURING THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS /UNTIL AROUND 04Z/. REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS SHOW THE BOW ECHO ALONG THE SERN MI/NWRN OH BORDER REGION HAS DECREASED IN FORWARD SPEED AS IT MOVED EWD INTO AN AIR MASS THAT HAS BECOME MORE STABLE. EXTENSIVE COLD POOL OVER FAR SRN MI AND NRN IND IS MAINTAINING THE FORWARD MOTION OF THE LINE OF STORMS THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NWRN OH INTO CENTRAL IND... DESPITE THE SLOW STABILIZATION OF THE AIR MASS. OVERALL LINE IS MOVING TO THE ESE AT 30 KT WITH EMBEDDED BOW SEGMENTS MOVING UP TO AROUND 35 KT. THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ADDITIONAL WW WILL BE LOW...AS THE DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL-SWRN OH/SERN IND CONTINUES DIURNAL STABILIZATION THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...IF A COLD POOL CAN STRENGTHEN WITH THE BOWING SEGMENT ACROSS CENTRAL IND... THEN THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAY EXTEND INTO PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL-SERN IND THROUGH 04Z. ..PETERS.. 07/22/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...IND... 39218727 39528717 39848589 40888547 41018453 41978370 41578332 39938369 38998487 38908650 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 22 12:49:56 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 22 Jul 2004 07:49:56 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407221249.i6MCneX05062@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 221149 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221149 VAZ000-WVZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-221345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1759 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0649 AM CDT THU JUL 22 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SE KY/SRN WV/SW VA/NW NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 221149Z - 221345Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF INCREASING SEVERE THREAT...BUT WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. MID-LEVEL JET STREAK ON THE ORDER OF 30 KT...AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM NOW PROGRESSING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY. CONVECTIVE CLUSTER WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD WITH LARGE-SCALE FORCING...ON NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE 14-16Z TIME FRAME. THOUGH CAPE DOES NOT APPEAR PARTICULARLY LARGE DUE TO RELATIVELY WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT OF AIR MASS...NEAR 2 INCHES...SUPPORTED HEAVY RAIN CORE WHICH APPEARS TO HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO SMALL WEAK DOWNBURST AND POSSIBLE EVOLVING SURFACE COLD POOL ACROSS THE MOREHEAD KY AREA PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS SEGMENT OF EVOLVING LINE IS SURGING SOUTHEASTWARD AROUND 40 KT...AND WILL PROGRESS NORTHEAST OF JACKSON...ACROSS THE PIKEVILLE...AREA INTO EXTREME SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA BY 14Z...AND MAY CONTINUE TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS APPROACHING SEVERE LIMITS. AS CONVECTION SPREADS INTO COOLER MORE STABLE LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE CREST OF APPALACHIANS INTO PARTS OF NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...WEAKENING TRENDS APPEAR LIKELY TO ENSUE. ..KERR.. 07/22/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...MRX...JKL... 37688281 37938244 37788142 37408061 36438056 36418187 36648259 36918352 37458377 37548357  From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 22 17:00:50 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 22 Jul 2004 12:00:50 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407221700.i6MH0XX26222@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 221700 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221659 OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-221900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1760 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1159 AM CDT THU JUL 22 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ECNTRL/NERN IL INTO NRN/CNTRL IND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 221659Z - 221900Z WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL IS INCREASING ACROSS NERN/ECNTRL IL INTO NRN/CNTRL IND. A WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED. THE LINE OF ELEVATED TSTMS ARCING NW-SE FROM THE QUAD CITIES AREA SEWD TO DECATUR CONTINUES TO MOVE ENEWD. THE LINE IS BECOMING ORIENTED MORE NORMAL TO THE MEAN FLOW REGIME AND IS ALSO MOVING INTO A DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG. LATEST PROXIMITY RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT CINH IS LIKELY ERODING SUFFICIENTLY THAT UPSTREAM TSTMS WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE SURFACE BASED SHORTLY. GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND DEEP WLY FLOW REGIME...TSTMS COULD EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MORE WIND DAMAGE PRODUCING LINE SEGMENTS. THE ONLY NEGATIVE IS SOMEWHAT WEAKER MIDLEVEL FLOW THAN YESTERDAY AND WEAK LOW LEVEL INFLOW. BUT...AS COLD POOLS INCREASE AND BEGIN TO BECOME MORE ALIGNED WITH THE MEAN WIND VECTOR...DAMAGING WINDS WILL BECOME MORE OF A THREAT. THUS...A WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SOON. ..RACY.. 07/22/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...DVN... 41658844 41448485 40808478 39848505 39848846 40218922 41108968 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 22 17:31:10 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 22 Jul 2004 12:31:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407221730.i6MHUuX08080@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 221730 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221729 COZ000-221930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1761 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1229 PM CDT THU JUL 22 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...FRONT RANGE OF NERN CO ONTO ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 221729Z - 221930Z THE LARGE HAIL THREAT WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A WW MAY BE REQUIRED. DENVER RADAR AND SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATE THAT A NELY COLD SURGE IS MOVING SWWD THROUGH THE URBAN CORRIDOR ATTM. VWP SHOWS UPSLOPE ENELY FLOW IS UP THROUGH 1 KM AT CHEYENNE AND DENVER. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ADVECTING WWD BENEATH NEARLY 8 DEGREES C/KM MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND IS MAKING FOR AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. TSTMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED OVER THE MOUNTAINS WEST OF BOULDER AND DENVER AND SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. PLUGGING IN A PARCEL WITH 77/55 YIELDS A SBCAPE OF 1100 J/KG WITHIN A VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILE OF AROUND 50 KTS. THUS...SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE AND THE SPC EXPERIMENTAL HAIL ALGORITHMS SUGGEST HAIL TO THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS/PING PONG BALLS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. FARTHER EAST...CINH IS A LITTLE STRONGER...BUT GIVEN A COUPLE MORE HOURS OF HEATING...TSTMS COULD DEVELOP FARTHER EAST ONTO THE PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ..RACY.. 07/22/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BOU... 39240543 40480548 40990425 40880314 39070320 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 22 18:53:44 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 22 Jul 2004 13:53:44 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407221853.i6MIrRX12381@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 221852 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221852 OHZ000-MIZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-222015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1762 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0152 PM CDT THU JUL 22 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IL...IN...SRN MI...WRN OH...NRN KY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 221852Z - 222015Z A NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED S AND E OF WW 665 FOR CONTINUED THREAT OF WIND DAMAGE. 20Z OUTLOOK WILL BE UPGRADED TO REFLECT THREAT FURTHER E INTO IN/OH/KY/MI. 18Z ILX SOUNDING INDICATES A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH MLCAPE OF 3000-3700 J/KG. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT VERY STEEP AT 6.0 C/KM...BUT GIVEN VERY HIGH DEWPOINTS VERTICAL ACCELERATIONS ARE STILL STRONG. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS PRESSURE RISES IN ASSOCIATION WITH STORM CLUSTER / MCS OVER NRN IL...INDICATING SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD. VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TAKING PLACE ON SRN EDGE OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NOW ACROSS S CENTRAL IL. ACTIVITY OVER NRN IL WILL LIKELY CONTINUE EWD AND MAY STRENGTHEN AS INSTABILITY INCREASES. FURTHER S...NEW DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY MERGE INTO AN MCS AND MOVE INTO CENTRAL / SRN IN...POSSIBLY INTO KY AND WRN OH WITH TIME. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT. ..JEWELL.. 07/22/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CLE...JKL...ILN...DTX...LMK...IWX...GRR...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX... 38368767 39558920 40278827 42548724 42728452 41798355 39048353 37988396 37998578 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 22 23:10:07 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 22 Jul 2004 18:10:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407222309.i6MN9nX22328@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 222309 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222308 ILZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-230045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1766 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0608 PM CDT THU JUL 22 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...EAST CENTRAL KS/CENTRAL MO/PORTION OF FAR SWRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 222308Z - 230045Z ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND/OR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM EAST CENTRAL KS EWD ACROSS CENTRAL MO TO FAR SWRN IL IN THE VICINITY OF STL. WW NOT ANTICIPATED GIVEN SHORT DURATION OF SEVERE THREAT. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW SCATTERED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED DURING THE LAST HOUR ACROSS THE AREA OF CONCERN. SURFACE ANALYSES SHOW A WEAK BOUNDARY ORIENTED E-W IS MOVING TO SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH INTO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. THIS ACTIVITY IS ALONG THE SRN FRINGE OF STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW LOCATED ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT A FEW ORGANIZED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DURING THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. AFTER SUNSET...THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO STABILIZE. ..PETERS.. 07/22/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT... 38599642 39029597 39099343 39169166 39098994 38438980 37759033 37839322 37799511 37919610 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 22 23:35:05 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 22 Jul 2004 18:35:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407222334.i6MNYlX30114@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 222334 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222334 KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-230000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1767 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0634 PM CDT THU JUL 22 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO AND EXTREME WRN KS AND DUNDY COUNTY NEB CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 666... VALID 222334Z - 230000Z WW 666 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 00Z. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW STORM MERGERS FROM NERN CO TO SERN CO NEAR TAD HAVE RESULTED IN AN OVERALL CLUSTER OF STORMS MOVING TO THE SE AT 15-20 KT. ADDITIONAL DISCRETE STORMS CONTINUE IN ADVANCE OF THE LARGER CLUSTER...WHILE DOWNSTREAM CONVECTION FROM NERN NM INTO SWRN KS HAS STABILIZED THIS AIR MASS. AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND/OR HAIL EVENT WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT HOUR. THE GREATER THREAT WILL LIKELY BE HEAVY RAINFALL RATES /1-2 INCH PER HOUR/ WITH ADDITIONAL STORM MERGERS AND SLOW STORM MOTIONS. ..PETERS.. 07/22/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU... 37750473 39060311 40090252 40140163 37780151 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 22 23:43:17 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 22 Jul 2004 18:43:17 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407222342.i6MNgxX00550@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 222342 SWOMCD SPC MCD 222342 OHZ000-KYZ000-MIZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-230115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1768 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0642 PM CDT THU JUL 22 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN IL...INDIANA...CENTRAL KY...WRN OH...EXTREME NRN TN AND SERN MI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 667...668... VALID 222342Z - 230115Z THREAT FOR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE CONTINUES WITH STRONGEST CELLS...PARTICULARLY OVER ERN IN / WRN OH...SRN IL AND CENTRAL KY. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL MOVE INTO WRN OHIO WHICH IS E OF WW 667. HOWEVER...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES STRONG PRESSURE RISES WELL AHEAD OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW...INDICATING STORMS MIGHT BE ENCOUNTERING A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER GROWTH OR INTENSIFICATION DESPITE STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER WRN OH. THEREFORE...ONLY ISOLATED SEVERE IS EXPECTED...AND AN ADDITIONAL WW MAY NOT BE REQUIRED. FARTHER SOUTH...STORMS CONTINUE TO FORWARD PROPAGATE OVER WRN KY...AND WILL LIKELY ENTER INTO EXTREME NRN TN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THINKING IS THAT THESE STORMS WILL WEAKEN BY THE TIME THEY EXIT SRN PART OF WW 668...SO THAT AN ADDITIONAL WW WILL NOT BE REQUIRED. ..JEWELL.. 07/22/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN...DTX...LMK...IWX...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX... 37688939 38688929 38658786 38848642 40598546 42018502 42008322 41978242 39788288 38418319 36658473 36328633 36378801 37298879 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 23 19:57:30 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 23 Jul 2004 14:57:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407231957.i6NJvIX08554@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 231956 SWOMCD SPC MCD 231956 MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-232130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1769 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0256 PM CDT FRI JUL 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL-NERN OK...SERN KS AND EXTREME SWRN MO CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 231956Z - 232130Z ISOLD DAMAGING MICROBURSTS AND HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OK...SERN KS AND EXTREME SWRN MO THIS AFTERNOON. WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY AXIS SITUATED FROM CNTRL OK NEWD INTO SERN KS AND EXTREME SWRN MO. WEAK CINH/MESOSCALE CONVERGENCE COMBINED WITH A MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS HAVE PROVEN SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED TSTMS. PROFILERS SUGGEST THAT THE STRONGEST 0-6KM SHEAR EXISTS FROM NRN OK INTO KS...BUT STILL MARGINAL TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. PRIND THAT THE STORMS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY OF MULTICELL CHARACTER. AS THE STORMS MATURE AND COLLAPSE... DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS ARE LIKELY GIVEN DOWNDRAFT CAPE OF NEARLY 1500 J/KG ENHANCED BY MIDLEVEL DRY AIR. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE ISOLD AND A WW WILL NOT BE WARRANTED. ..RACY.. 07/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...ICT...OUN... 35639899 37379750 38159432 36809372 35989529 34439820 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 23 23:16:30 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 23 Jul 2004 18:16:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407232316.i6NNG9X13265@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 232315 SWOMCD SPC MCD 232315 AZZ000-240015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1770 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0615 PM CDT FRI JUL 23 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN AZ CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 232315Z - 240015Z ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL AND WRN AZ. WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW NUMEROUS STORMS EXTENDING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL AZ ALONG THE AZ/MEXICO BORDER NNEWD TO GILA COUNTY AND SE-NW ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM. STRONG INSOLATION /SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S TO AROUND 100/ IN THE DESERT VALLEYS TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS RESULTED IN A DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. AREA VAD WIND PROFILERS AND 18Z RAOBS INDICATED ESELY STEERING FLOW OF 10-15 KT ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN AZ FROM AROUND PHX AND SWD...WHILE STEERING FLOW WAS WLY ACROSS THE NRN PART OF AZ PER FLG VAD DATA. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS IS EXPECTED GENERALLY SOUTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM SRN COCONINO TO WRN GILA TO CENTRAL PIMA COUNTIES...WHERE INVERTED-V PROFILES WILL ENHANCE PROBABILITY FOR MICROBURSTS. HOWEVER...THE WEAK STEERING FLOW WILL TEND TO LIMIT PROPAGATION OF THE STORMS INTO THE LOWER DESERTS...AND WILL ALSO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE. ..PETERS.. 07/23/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR... 34501264 34501171 33621133 33081125 32241219 31931272 32251364 33581357 34181321 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 24 18:22:16 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 24 Jul 2004 13:22:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407241821.i6OILrX03102@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 241821 SWOMCD SPC MCD 241821 ARZ000-OKZ000-242015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1771 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0121 PM CDT SAT JUL 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK...NRN-CNTRL AR CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 241821Z - 242015Z CONVECTION IS SLOWLY INCREASING FROM EXTREME ERN OK INTO CENTRAL AR...AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP INTO THE AFTERNOON. AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR INTENSITY TRENDS AND POSSIBILITY OF WW. AIR MASS REMAINS VERY MOIST ACROSS ERN OK INTO AR WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN THE LOW/MID 70S. CLOUDS HAVE DIMINISHED OVER THE REGION AND STRONG HEATING IS OCCURRING WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 90F OVER CENTRAL AR...RESULTING IN MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE RANGING FROM 3000 J/KG FROM EXTREME SERN OK INTO CENTRAL AR TO 1000 J/KG OVER NRN AR. VAD AND PROFILER DATA SHOW LAYERS OF 20-25 KT FLOW IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS BUT OVERALL DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS MARGINAL FOR ENHANCED STORM ORGANIZATION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE DISCONTINUITY FROM EXTREME SERN OK INTO CENTRAL AR WHICH MAY PROVIDE FOCUS FOR STRONGER CELLS. RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER THAT WILL ENHANCE THREAT FOR DOWNBURSTS AND OCCASIONAL HAIL. ..WEISS.. 07/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...SHV...TSA... 34969523 35869499 36419399 36439247 36279105 35669060 34809141 34259339 34149505 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 24 23:05:24 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 24 Jul 2004 18:05:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407242304.i6ON4xX14846@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 242304 SWOMCD SPC MCD 242303 AZZ000-CAZ000-250130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1772 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0603 PM CDT SAT JUL 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS W-CENTRAL/SWRN AZ CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 242303Z - 250130Z BROKEN BAND OF TSTMS MAY MOVE SWWD ACROSS PORTIONS SWRN YAVAPAI...NRN/WRN MARICOPA...SERN MOHAVE...AND LA PAZ COUNTIES THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 2Z. A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS AND HAIL NEAR SEVERE LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE. WW NOT PLANNED ATTM. CONVECTION IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED IN A ROUGHLY 100 NM LONG...NW-SE ORIENTED ZONE CENTERED OVER PRC AS OF 23Z. MODIFIED 18Z PHX RAOB AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FOR CONVECTION TO CONTINUE FORMING ALONG EDGE OF COLLECTIVE GUST FRONT AS THIS ACTIVITY ORGANIZES FURTHER AND SHIFTS SWWD ACROSS LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS. BOUNDARY LAYER IS PROGRESSIVELY MORE UNSTABLE WITH SWWD EXTENT ACROSS THIS AREA...I.E. 500 J/KG MLCAPE JUST W PRC BUT NEARLY 2000 J/KG MLCAPE AROUND YUM. DCAPE MATCHES OR EXCEEDS MLCAPE THROUGH MUCH OF PRE-STORM AIR MASS. 10-15 KT MIDLEVEL NELYS WILL SUPPORT SWWD PROPAGATION OF COLD POOL OVER DESERT FLOOR. ..EDWARDS.. 07/24/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...VEF... 35131327 34141177 33151311 34071433 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 25 01:08:04 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 24 Jul 2004 20:08:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407250107.i6P17dX12077@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 250107 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250106 AZZ000-250300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1773 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0806 PM CDT SAT JUL 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS S-CENTRAL AZ CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 250106Z - 250300Z BROKEN BAND OF TSTMS IS INCREASING IN INTENSITY AS OF 1Z FROM ERN MARICOPA COUNTY SSEWD TO E-CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED FOR ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS AND MOVE SWWD ACROSS DESERT WITH POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR SEVERE LEVELS. 00Z TUS/FGZ RAOBS APPEAR UNREPRESENTATIVE OF SIGNIFICANTLY MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS FARTHER W AND SW...BECAUSE OF STABILIZING EFFECTS OF PRIOR CONVECTION. MODIFIED 18Z PHX RAOB AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS INSTEAD SUGGEST TSTMS ENE-SE OF PHX WILL MOVE INTO ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE. SIMILAR VALUES OF DCAPE ARE ESTIMATED AS WELL...BECAUSE OF DEEPLY MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYER. THOSE THERMODYNAMIC FACTORS COMBINED WITH NELY MIDLEVEL FLOW OFF HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD SUPPORT FORWARD-PROPAGATION OF TSTM BAND PAST I-10 CORRIDOR FROM PHX METRO AREA SEWD TO ABOUT 25 NW TUS. ACTIVITY MAY MOVE ACROSS MUCH OF ERN MARICOPA...CENTRAL/WRN PINAL AND NRN PIMA COUNTIES BEFORE WEAKENING THIS EVENING. ..EDWARDS.. 07/25/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TWC...PSR... 33931177 32731093 31681196 32861289 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 25 18:52:44 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 25 Jul 2004 13:52:44 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407251852.i6PIqMX16692@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 251851 SWOMCD SPC MCD 251851 VAZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-NCZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-252045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1774 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0151 PM CDT SUN JUL 25 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE-ERN TN...SERN KY...NRN AL...EXTRM NWRN GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 251851Z - 252045Z A BAND OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED FROM NWRN AL ACROSS MIDDLE TN INTO EXTREME SERN KY. ISOLATED STORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL,,,BUT LIMITED COVERAGE OF SEVERE THREAT SUGGESTS WW MAY NOT BE NEEDED. STORMS HAVE SLOWLY INCREASED ACROSS THIS REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY MAX MOVING EWD ACROSS WRN TN. STORMS HAVE BECOME ORGANIZED INTO A SLOW MOVING LINE...WITH LINEAR CHARACTERISTICS OVER NERN PARTS OF MIDDLE TN ENHANCED BY OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER CONVECTION OVER NERN TN. AIR MASS REMAINS MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW 70S...AND MLCAPE RANGING FROM NEAR 1000 J/KG OVER THE NRN PARTS OF THE AREA TO NEAR 3000 J/KG IN NRN AL. VAD DATA AT BNA SHOW WINDS OF 25-30 KT IN THE 3-5 KM LAYER CONTRIBUTING TO MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR OF 20-25 KT IN THE LOWEST 5 KM. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. IN ADDITION...HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GREATER THAN 1.75 INCHES...POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING CELLS ALONG THE SLOW MOVING LINE...AND NEARLY STATIONARY CELLS AHEAD OF THE LINE IN ERN TN INDICATE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. ..WEISS.. 07/25/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN... 34258769 35288706 36008644 36618573 37058447 37258331 37048284 36748286 35638355 34978436 34238650 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 25 19:07:05 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 25 Jul 2004 14:07:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407251906.i6PJ6bX20466@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 251906 SWOMCD SPC MCD 251905 ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-252200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1775 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0205 PM CDT SUN JUL 25 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...AL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 251905Z - 252200Z NEARLY STATIONARY PULSE STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM NRN INTO SWRN AL WHICH HAVE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WET MICROBURSTS AND HEAVY RAIN. WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. STRONG THUNDERSTORM HAVE DEVELOPED IN A BAND FROM NEAR BHM SSWWD TOWARD MOB ALONG WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE ZONE. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 90-95F RANGE AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOW 70S...AIR MASS HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE OF 3000-4000 J/KG. WEAK VERTICAL WIND PROFILES WITH MEAN WIND/VERTICAL SHEAR GENERALLY AOB 10 KT INDICATES STORMS WILL EXHIBIT PULSE CHARACTERISTICS. DCAPE VALUES OF 900-1000 J/KG...AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8-9 C/KM IN LOWEST 3 KM ACCOMPANIED BY 15-20F TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS AT THE SURFACE SUGGESTS THREAT FOR A FEW WET MICROBURSTS TO DEVELOP. IN ADDITION...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES AND LITTLE IF ANY CELL MOVEMENT INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO OCCUR. ..WEISS.. 07/25/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MOB...LIX... 32118818 33138800 34118753 34298676 34188587 33738576 32348674 30838737 30258789 30478852 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 25 21:48:05 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 25 Jul 2004 16:48:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407252147.i6PLlaX31782@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 252147 SWOMCD SPC MCD 252146 AZZ000-252345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1776 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0446 PM CDT SUN JUL 25 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WCNTRL/SCNTRL AZ CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 252146Z - 252345Z TSTM CLUSTERS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SWWD THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON INTO PORTIONS OF WCNTRL/SCNTRL AZ...WITH POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. ALTHOUGH WW NOT ANTICIPATED...CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED THROUGH REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON. MODIFIED 18Z PHX SOUNDING FOR AMBIENT SFC CONDITIONS SUGGESTS AROUND 1000 J/KG MLCAPE INVOF PHOENIX METRO AREA/INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR...PROGRESSIVELY INCREASING TO AOA 1500-2000 J/KG INVOF INTERSTATE 8 CORRIDOR OF SW AZ. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...EVOLVING COLD POOLS AND E/NE MID LEVEL STEERING FLOW OF 10-15 KTS /EVIDENT IN 18Z PHX SOUNDING AND LOCAL 88D VAD/ MAY SUPPORT SWWD PROPAGATION OF TSTM CLUSTERS INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF WCNTRL/SCNTRL AZ LATE THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN EXPECTED EVOLUTION...MICROBURSTS/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OWING TO WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER CHARACTERIZED BY 40-50F SFC TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT SUPPORTED BY HIGH PRECIP WATER CONTENT AROUND 1.4 IN AND SLOW STORM MOTIONS. IN ADDITION...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS. ..GUYER.. 07/25/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...VEF... 33741123 33371080 32931091 32871157 32951241 33251342 33641400 34071406 34521378 34431321 34091205 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Jul 25 22:40:20 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 25 Jul 2004 17:40:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407252239.i6PMdsX13680@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 252239 SWOMCD SPC MCD 252238 IDZ000-NVZ000-ORZ000-260115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1777 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0538 PM CDT SUN JUL 25 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SERN AND EXTREME E-CENTRAL ORE...SWRN AND W-CENTRAL ID...EXTREME NRN NV CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 252238Z - 260115Z WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP -- PRIMARILY IN AREAS OF STRONGEST OROGRAPHIC ASCENT...THEN MOVE GENERALLY EWD TO SEWD ACROSS PORTIONS ERN ORE AND WRN ID...THROUGH AT LEAST 01Z. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HAIL AND STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS FROM MOST INTENSE TSTMS. LOOSELY ORGANIZED BAND OF CONVECTION ALSO SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY NWD FROM EXTREME NRN NV INTO UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER SRN ID. WITH BRIEF/ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TOO ISOLATED ATTM FOR WW...THOUGH SOME LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND MAY OCCUR. AIR MASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE ACROSS MUCH OF DISCUSSION AREA FROM JUST S OF NRN NV BORDER NWD ACROSS PORTIONS SRN/WRN ID AND ERN ORE. ANIMATED VIS IMAGERY INDICATES TWO SMALL MIDLEVEL VORTICES...EACH MOVING NEWD 15-20 KT -- 1. WEAKENING OVER PORTIONS ELMORE/CAMAS/BLAINE COUNTIES ID...MOVING OUT OF SNAKE RIVER VALLEY TOWARD MT BORDER... 2. OVER MALHEUR COUNTY ORE...HEADING TOWARD LOWER PORTIONS SNAKE RIVER VALLEY IN WRN-MOST ID. THIS FEATURE ALSO IS EVIDENT IN UPPER LEVELS ON MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY. DESTABILIZATION ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH LATTER FEATURE WILL BE JUXTAPOSED OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH MOST INTENSE LOW LEVEL HEATING -- OVER RELATIVELY LOW ELEVATIONS NEAR RIVER. BOTH ETA AND RUC ARE NOT HEATING/MIXING NEAR SFC AIR MASS OVER THIS REGION STRONGLY ENOUGH AND THEREFORE ARE UNDERESTIMATING BUOYANCY. ACCORDINGLY MODIFIED MODEL SOUNDINGS AND RAOBS WITH NOWCAST SFC TEMPS/DEW POINTS IN REGION SUGGEST LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR DRY ADIABATIC...WITH MLCAPE COMMONLY IN 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE...ATOP DEEP BOUNDARY LAYERS WITH INVERTED-V TYPE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES. CONSIDERABLE SUBCLOUD EVAPORATION POTENTIAL SUGGESTS MAINTENANCE OF BOTH HAIL AND DOWNDRAFT INTENSITY TO SFC...ESPECIALLY OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS WHERE MIXING EFFECTS ARE DEEPEST. ..EDWARDS.. 07/25/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PIH...MSO...BOI...LKN...PDT...MFR... 42401472 42061481 41701573 41671706 41851848 42221979 42382013 42662037 44381902 45031731 46091612 46171563 45671494 43301521 42671494 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 26 19:18:30 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 26 Jul 2004 14:18:30 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407261917.i6QJHxX08249@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 261917 SWOMCD SPC MCD 261916 WYZ000-MTZ000-UTZ000-IDZ000-NVZ000-262145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1778 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0216 PM CDT MON JUL 26 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN ID...WCNTRL WY AND NRN UT CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 261916Z - 262145Z TSTMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AND COULD PRODUCE ISOLD SEVERE WIND GUSTS/HAIL ACROSS CNTRL/ERN ID AND NRN UT. ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO SPREAD INTO WRN WY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A WW IS NOT WARRANTED GIVEN ISOLD SEVERE THREATS. SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL-DEVELOPED VORTICITY MAX CENTERED VCNTY NERN OWYHEE COUNTY ID...MOVING EAST AT 30 KTS. EXTRAPOLATION HAS THIS FEATURE INTO ERN ID BY 00Z. TSTMS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN FORMING OVER NERN NV AND PARTS OF CNTRL ID IN THE CHALLIS NATIONAL FOREST AREA. SATELLITE DERIVED GOES PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SUGGEST THAT MOISTURE HAS INCREASED IN THE LAST FEW HOURS...JUST OVER AN INCH ACROSS NRN UT AND CNTRL/SRN ID. THOUGH CLOUDS HAVE KEPT INSOLATION TO A PREMIUM ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE MORNING...AIR MASS HAS BEGUN TO DESTABILIZE JUST AHEAD OF THE LOW/MIDLEVEL IMPULSE AND LI/S ARE NEAR MINUS 3 DEGREES C. LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE VORTICITY MAX IS MODULATING/ENHANCING THE DIURNAL CYCLE. THOUGH THE WIND FLOW THROUGH THE TROPOSPHERE IS RATHER WEAK...AS THE VORT MAX CONTINUES EWD...SEMI-ORGANIZED MAINLY PULSE TSTMS MAY GIVE LOCALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS OR HAIL. ..RACY.. 07/26/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RIW...TFX...SLC...PIH...MSO...BOI...LKN... 41601439 43651469 44461205 44521026 43300969 41531124 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 26 23:10:07 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 26 Jul 2004 18:10:07 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407262309.i6QN9ZX08580@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 262309 SWOMCD SPC MCD 262308 NDZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-270115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1779 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0608 PM CDT MON JUL 26 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS EXTREME ERN MT...WRN ND...EXTREME NERN WY...WRN SD N OF BLACK HILLS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 262308Z - 270115Z SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP FROM WESTON/CROOK COUNTIES WY NNEWD TOWARD NWRN CORNER SD...THEN NNWWD ACROSS ND/MT BORDER REGION THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 00Z. THIS ACTIVITY IS FCST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS WRN 1/3 TO 1/4 OF ND...AND THAT PORTION OF NWRN SD N OF BLACK HILLS. ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH MOSTLY SMALL HAIL. WW NOT EXPECTED. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS TROUGH/CONFLUENCE LINE ALONG AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTIVE AXIS. FLOW IS BACKING E OF THIS FEATURE AND VEERING AT SOME STATIONS BEHIND IT...BECAUSE OF SOME COMBINATION OF 1. WEAK LEE-SIDE ISALLOBARIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH APCHG UPPER TROUGH OVER ID AND 2. SFC PRESSURE FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG DIABATIC HEATING. VERY DEEPLY MIXED AND RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYERS CHARACTERIZE ENVIRONMENT WITH CLOUD BASES ESTIMATED TO BE IN 500-550 MB LAYER...SFC DEW POINTS IN 40S F...AND MLCAPE 400-700 J/KG. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS AND AVAILABLE/INTERPOLATED VWP DATA INDICATE PRONOUNCED WEAKNESS OF BOTH LOW-MIDLEVEL SHEAR AND ABSOLUTE FLOW -- WITH WINDS GENERALLY AOB 10 KT IN 400-900 MB LAYER. THIS WILL LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION AND CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED OUTFLOW-DOMINANCE. HOWEVER...SHORT-LIVED THREAT EXISTS FOR LOCALIZED STRONG ASCENT ALONG COLD POOLS BEFORE SLOPE OF OUTFLOW BECOMES TOO SHALLOW. EXPECT POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND TO DIMINISH MARKEDLY AFTER ABOUT 02Z WITH BOTH EXPANSION OF OUTFLOW COVERAGE AND LOSS OF BUOYANCY ATTRIBUTABLE TO SFC DIABATIC COOLING. ..EDWARDS.. 07/26/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW... 49000226 44160227 44200514 48980514 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Jul 26 23:12:02 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 26 Jul 2004 18:12:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407262311.i6QNBUX09044@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 262310 SWOMCD SPC MCD 262310 AZZ000-270115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1780 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0610 PM CDT MON JUL 26 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SCNTRL/SW AZ CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 262310Z - 270115Z TSTMS MAY EVOLVE SSW INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SCNTRL/SW AZ THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WITH ISOLD MICROBURSTS POSSIBLE...IN ADDITION TO A LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THREAT. A SEVERE WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED. TSTMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF CNTRL AZ. OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...ORGANIZED MESOSCALE COLD POOLS AMIDST MARGINAL STEERING FLOW -- CHARACTERIZED BY MEAN N/NW WINDS AROUND 10 KTS -- WILL LIKELY SUPPORT A PROPAGATION OF ISOLD TSTMS ONTO THE DESERT FLOOR. OBSERVED 21Z PHX SOUNDING MODIFIED FOR 23Z AMBIENT SFC CONDITIONS PORTRAYS AROUND 1100 J/KG MEAN MIXED CAPE IN THE LOWER DESERTS. WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER /40-45F DELTA SFC T-TD/ AND DOWNDRAFT CAPE AROUND 1200 J/KG SUGGESTS ISOLD MICROBURST/DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. IN ADDITION...MOIST AIRMASS /1.38 IN PW PER 21Z PHX RAOB/ AND RELATIVELY SLOW STORM MOTIONS WILL SUPPORT A LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT. ..GUYER.. 07/26/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...VEF... 34181290 33831161 33091066 32551068 32621155 32801232 33341345 33881412 34401378 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 27 17:50:19 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 27 Jul 2004 12:50:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407271749.i6RHnkX20443@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 271749 SWOMCD SPC MCD 271749 NJZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-PAZ000-DCZ000-272015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1781 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1249 PM CDT TUE JUL 27 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN VA...SRN/ERN MD...DE AND FAR SRN NJ CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 271749Z - 272015Z ISOLATED STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND MAY POSE A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THREAT WILL REMAIN LIMITED ENOUGH THAT A WW IS NOT LIKELY. EARLY AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS PLACES A SFC LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER FAR SERN PA WITH A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING SEWD FROM THE LOW INTO FAR SRN NJ. A THERMAL RIDGE EXISTED SOUTH OF THE LOW WITH TEMPERATURE READINGS IN THE LOWER-MID 80S AND DEWPTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. THIS WAS CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPES FROM 2000-2500 J/KG. SUBTLE MID LEVEL SPEED MAX SAMPLED BY AREA VWP/S WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AROUND 30 KTS OF FLOW AT 2-3 KM AND AROUND 40 KTS AT 6 KM OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE MUCH POORER OVER WRN VA/MD...RIBBON OF AROUND 6.5 C/KM LAPSE RATES NOTED ON RECENT RUC SOUNDINGS AND WV IMAGERY SHOULD MOVE NWD INTO THE AREA ENHANCING UPDRAFT STRENGTH. THE PARALLEL NATURE OF UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES WITH ORIENTATION OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING/CONVECTIVE GENESIS BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SRN MD INTO SCENTRAL VA SUGGESTS THAT IT WILL TAKE A FEW MORE HOURS FOR CONVECTION TO ALIGN ITSELF FAVORABLY TO DEEP SHEAR VECTOR AND BEGIN POSING A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. IN ADDITION...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP/STRENGTHEN FURTHER EAST ALONG THE SEA BREEZE FRONT ACROSS THE WRN DELMARVA PENINSULA AND/OR THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER FAR NRN DE/SRN NJ WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME BRIEFLY SUPERCELLULAR GIVEN BACKED LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES IN THESE AREAS. SUSTAINED LIFT AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT COUPLED WITH VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL AIRMASS WITH PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.8 IN. WILL LIKELY LEAD TO HEAVY RAINFALL RATES LOCALLY OVER 2 INCH/HR. ..CROSBIE.. 07/27/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX... 36987583 36727771 37377801 38797730 39627653 39937569 39437437 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 27 18:07:18 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 27 Jul 2004 13:07:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407271806.i6RI6lX27760@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 271805 SWOMCD SPC MCD 271805 COZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-272030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1782 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0105 PM CDT TUE JUL 27 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ECNTRL NV...SRN UT AND SWRN CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 271805Z - 272030Z THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING RISK OF DAMAGING/SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. A WW COULD BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON. TSTMS HAVE BEEN INTENSIFYING PER LATEST VSBL IMAGERY...ESPECIALLY OVER SCNTRL UT VCNTY/NE OF BRYCE CANYON AND OVER THE UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU OF SWRN CO. REGION REMAINS WITHIN DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ALONG LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 50 KT H25 JET STREAK AND TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY GROW/MATURE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STEEP LAPSE RATES...BOTH AT THE LOWER LEVELS AND ALOFT...WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONGER UPDRAFTS TO POSSIBLY ROTATE GIVEN STRONG UPPER FLOW REGIME IN PLACE. KINEMATIC SET-UP...FEATURING WLY FLOW THROUGH THE TROPOSPHERE...MAY ENCOURAGE TSTMS TO DEVELOP INTO E SHORT BOWING LINE SEGMENTS THAT MAY GIVE DAMAGING/SEVERE WIND GUSTS. OTHERWISE...HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. WHILE THE GREATER SEVERE THREATS APPEAR TO BE SITUATED FROM SERN UT INTO SWRN CO...ACCAS FIELD OVER ECNTRL NV MAY GROW INTO MORE SUBSTANTIAL TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WCNTRL/SWRN UT. THESE STORMS MAY ALSO POSE A DAMAGING WIND THREAT...BUT SHOULD BE MORE ISOLD THAN FARTHER EAST. ..RACY.. 07/27/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PUB...GJT...SLC...VEF...LKN... 37151010 37111189 39271638 39771542 39411301 38780980 39770716 37970583 37070581 37130861 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 27 18:35:41 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 27 Jul 2004 13:35:41 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407271835.i6RIZ7X08284@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 271834 SWOMCD SPC MCD 271834 AZZ000-272100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1783 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0134 PM CDT TUE JUL 27 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CNTRL AZ CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 271834Z - 272100Z SEVERE TSTM THREAT WILL BE INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN/CNTRL AZ. MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING/SEVERE WINDS AND POSSIBLY HAIL AND A WW MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON. VSBL SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGES SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION IS INCREASING ALONG THE MOGOLLON PLATEAU...THE BRADSHAW MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF PRESCOTT...OVER THE CARSON/BLACK MESAS IN NERN AZ AND NEAR THE SALT RIVER CANYON IN ERN GILA COUNTY. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW THE UNUSUAL UPPER FLOW REGIME IN PLACE WITH NWLY FLOW ALOFT AND RESIDUAL MONSOONAL MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. AREAS FROM THE RIM NWD ARE LOCATED WITHIN LEFT EXIT/DIFFLUENT REGION OF THE 50 KT H25 JETLET AND TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO GROW/MATURE THIS AFTERNOON. MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR THROUGH THE TROPOSPHERE MAY ENCOURAGE A FEW DISCRETE STORMS TO ROTATE AND PRODUCE HAIL IN ADDITION TO SEVERE/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. WNWLY FLOW REGIME WILL LIKELY LEAD TO COLD POOLS ELONGATING SSEWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CONVERGENCE ALONG THESE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...AIDED BY SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...WILL MOVE INTO THE CNTRL VLYS AROUND PHOENIX LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD BE IMPETUS FOR ADDITIONAL TSTMS INITIATION. AGAIN...VERTICAL SHEAR IS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AND POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR DISCRETE ROTATING STORMS WITH HAIL. OTHERWISE...DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. ..RACY.. 07/27/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...VEF... 33070910 33521185 33661280 34751377 35881414 36861361 35721248 35141234 35151167 35221062 36841069 36870993 36840925 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 27 19:29:53 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 27 Jul 2004 14:29:53 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407271929.i6RJTOX00957@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 271928 SWOMCD SPC MCD 271927 NDZ000-SDZ000-272130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1784 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0227 PM CDT TUE JUL 27 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL ND AND CENTRAL/WRN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 271927Z - 272130Z ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP BY 20Z ALONG A LEE TROUGH OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ND SWWD INTO WRN SD. MARGINAL SHEAR WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT. VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY SHOWS INCIPIENT TOWERING CU ALONG A LEE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SWRN ND INTO NWRN/WCENTRAL SD. MODIFIED SOUNDINGS FOR THE AREA AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH INDICATE WEAKENING CINH LESS THAN 50 J/KG AS OF 19Z. INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD THIS BOUNDARY HAS SUSTAINED MID-UPPER 50S DEWPTS DESPITE STRONG AFTERNOON MIXING. AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM A FEW MORE DEGREES...MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG...SUSTAINED CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND MINIMAL CINH SHOULD LEAD TO A FEW STRONG STORMS BY AROUND 21Z. MARGINAL MID LEVEL WINDS...15-20 KTS...AND WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER SSELY WINDS SHOULD LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS CONVECTION MOVES EWD INTO CENTRAL SD/ND. ..CROSBIE.. 07/27/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR... 44270345 45430306 46330222 47480091 47700013 46799921 45009927 43940056 43430180 43390340 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 27 20:03:20 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 27 Jul 2004 15:03:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407272002.i6RK2kX15570@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 272002 SWOMCD SPC MCD 272001 COZ000-UTZ000-272200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1785 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0301 PM CDT TUE JUL 27 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN UT AND SWRN CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 669... VALID 272001Z - 272200Z THREATS FOR DAMAGING/SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL CONTINUE ACROSS SRN UT AND SWRN CO. VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A STRONG UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MOVING ESEWD TOWARD WRN UT WITH DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW REGIME ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT BASIN. THIS HAS PROVIDED A LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FOR TSTMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS CLUSTER THAT MOVED INTO THE LAKE POWELL AREA HAS GENERATED A COLD POOL THAT IS ELONGATING DOWNSTREAM TOWARD NERN AZ. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THEN ARCS NWWD THROUGH NRN KANE-CNTRL IRON-WRN BEAVER COUNTIES IN UT. WSWLY FLOW REGIME THROUGH THE TROPOSPHERE IS IMPINGING ON THIS BOUNDARY AND NEW TSTMS ARE BACKBUILDING ALONG/NORTH OF IT. GIVEN PARCELS CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITHIN A MODERATELY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...THESE TSTMS COULD ALSO BECOME SEVERE WITH HAIL AND POSSIBLY HIGH WINDS. IN ADDITION...TRAINING OF THE TSTMS MAY POSE PROLONGED PERIOD OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF KANE COUNTY. FARTHER EAST...NUMEROUS TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER SWRN CO. AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COLLIDE...BRIEF INTENSIFICATION OF UPDRAFTS ARE POSSIBLE AND HAIL OR A MICROBURST OR TWO COULD OCCUR. ..RACY.. 07/27/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GJT...SLC... 37241377 38781377 38610811 37090805 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 27 22:11:59 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 27 Jul 2004 17:11:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407272211.i6RMBPX06905@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 272210 SWOMCD SPC MCD 272210 KSZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-280115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1786 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0510 PM CDT TUE JUL 27 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN/ERN NM...NWRN TX PANHANDLE...WRN OK PANHANDLE...EXTREME SERN CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 272210Z - 280115Z SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD TO SEWD ACROSS A ROUGHLY 60-80 NM WIDE CORRIDOR FROM PORTIONS DONA ANA/OTERO COUNTIES NM NEWD TO BACA COUNTY CO. A FEW DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS AND MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL MAY OCCUR...PRIMARILY BEFORE APPROXIMATELY 02Z. WW NOT ANTICIPATED BECAUSE OF ISOLATED/SHORT-DURATION NATURE OF SEVERE POTENTIAL. LOCALIZED RAIN RATES 1-2 INCHES/HOUR ARE EXPECTED IN MANY OF THE STRONGER PRECIP CORES ACROSS THIS REGION. MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY INDICATES DIFFUSE MID-UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY EWD ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL NM THROUGH REMAINDER EVENING. SUBTLE LARGE SCALE DESTABILIZATION ALOFT -- COMBINED WITH SFC MOIST ADVECTION -- OFFSETS LACK OF STRONGER SFC DIABATIC HEATING AND CONTRIBUTES TO MLCAPES 1000-1500 J/KG. LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK PER TCC PROFILER WINDS AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS...AOB 10 KT FROM SFC THROUGH ABOUT 500 MB. ASSOCIATED WEAK LOW-MIDLEVEL SHEAR WILL LIMIT ORGANIZATION OF STORMS...CAUSING MORPHOLOGIES TO TREND TO OUTFLOW-DOMINANT. INCREASINGLY MOIST INFLOW AIR...SLOW MOVING NATURE OF MUCH OF THIS CONVECTION...AND POTENTIAL FOR CELL MERGERS MAY ENHANCE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL ON LOCAL SCALES. ..EDWARDS.. 07/27/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ...EPZ... 32730690 35200482 36630392 37750275 37830203 37030202 35910249 34610341 32500562 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 27 22:31:04 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 27 Jul 2004 17:31:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407272230.i6RMUUX14571@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 272229 SWOMCD SPC MCD 272229 NDZ000-280030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1787 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0529 PM CDT TUE JUL 27 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...S CENTRAL ND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 272229Z - 280030Z ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING OUTFLOW GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS WITH STORMS NEAR SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS S CENTRAL ND. WW NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO LIMITED NATURE OF THE SEVERE STORM THREAT. SEVERAL STORMS DEVELOPED ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM NW SD INTO S CENTRAL ND DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. MANY OF THESE STORMS HAVE SINCE COLLAPSED WHILE BEING UNDERCUT BY OUTFLOW IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF RELATIVELY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR. HOWEVER...STORMS MAY PERSIST LONGER IN A NARROW CORRIDOR ORIENTED NE-SW THROUGH THE BIS AREA WHERE EXISTING CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING NEWD INTO A REGION OF MLCAPE NEAR 1500 J/KG...AIDED BY CONVERGENCE/ASCENT ALONG A SURFACE COLD FRONT. SLOW SWD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT AND A NEAR-SURFACE FEED OF MODERATE INSTABILITY FROM THE NE MAY ALLOW STORMS TO DEVELOP NEWD ACROSS THE BIS AREA IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF LARGE HAIL AND STRONG OUTFLOW GUSTS. ..THOMPSON.. 07/27/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... 46200057 46300089 46550111 46770100 47529975 47619927 47409905 47069929 46669992 46300023 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 27 22:42:02 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 27 Jul 2004 17:42:02 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407272241.i6RMfXX18384@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 272240 SWOMCD SPC MCD 272240 AZZ000-NMZ000-280045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1788 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0540 PM CDT TUE JUL 27 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/SERN AZ CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 670... VALID 272240Z - 280045Z BROKEN AND NW-SE ORIENTED BAND OF TSTMS SHOULD SHIFT SLOWLY SWD ACROSS WW AREA AND INTO LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE GUSTS AND OCCASIONAL HAIL. INFLOW LAYER AIR MASS S OF RIM CONTAINS FAVORABLE INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS. MODIFIED 18Z PHX RAOB IS TWICE AS BUOYANT AS RUC SOUNDING -- 1600 J/KG MLCAPE COMPARED TO 800 -- BECAUSE OF APPARENT OVERMIXING OF RUC MOISTURE PROFILE. PRIND FORMER IS MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF THAT AIR MASS...BUT IN EITHER CASE DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAGER WILL SUPPORT MAINTENANCE OF INTENSE DOWNDRAFTS TO SFC. SLOW MOVEMENT AND TRAIN-ECHO CONFIGURATION OF SOME ACTIVITY -- PARTICULARLY OVER YAVAPAI COUNTY WHERE ACTIVITY IS ORIENTED MOST PARALLEL TO DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW VECTOR -- WILL EXACERBATE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN THREAT...WITH SOME CORES PRODUCING 1-2 INCH/HOUR RATES FOR SHORT PERIODS. ..EDWARDS.. 07/27/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...VEF...EPZ...TWC... 34021189 34411285 34891341 35201353 35291332 35151280 34551172 34091156 31980904 33771329 35521329 33740906 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Jul 27 22:54:04 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 27 Jul 2004 17:54:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407272253.i6RMrVX22204@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 272252 SWOMCD SPC MCD 272252 UTZ000-272345- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1789 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0552 PM CDT TUE JUL 27 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN UT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 669... VALID 272252Z - 272345Z ISOLATED STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS AND HAIL REMAIN POSSIBLE FROM TSTMS OVER REMAINING BUT SHRINKING PORTIONS WW AREA. SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH 02Z AS INCREASINGLY DEEP/EXPANSIVE OUTFLOW POOL STABILIZES AIR MASS ACROSS MORE OF EXTREME SRN UT. THEREFORE WW PROBABLY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 00Z AS SCHEDULED WITHOUT FURTHER ISSUANCE OVER SRN UT OR NRN AZ. OVER RELATIVELY LIMITED AREA UNDISTURBED BY PRIOR/ONGOING CONVECTION -- PRIMARILY PORTIONS WASHINGTON/KANE COUNTIES...AIR MASS REMAINS AT LEAST MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WITH 500-900 J/KG MLCAPE INVOF CO RIVER. LOW-MIDLEVEL FLOW AND SHEAR IS WEAK WITH 10-20 KT WLY FLOW BELOW 400 MB. ..EDWARDS.. 07/27/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SLC... 37041166 37061388 37981390 37711243 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Jul 28 01:05:23 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 27 Jul 2004 20:05:23 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407280104.i6S14nX32359@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 280104 SWOMCD SPC MCD 280103 NMZ000-AZZ000-280230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1790 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0803 PM CDT TUE JUL 27 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL/SERN AZ CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 670... VALID 280103Z - 280230Z POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSTMS OVER GILA COUNTIES ATTM...AND STRONG CONVECTION SEWD ACROSS GRAHAM COUNTY...MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING GUSTS IN NEXT HOUR BEFORE WEAKENING. ANOTHER AREA OF TSTMS HAS MOVED INTO NRN MARICOPA COUNTY AND PRODUCED AN OUTFLOW POOL THAT IS SURGING AWAY FROM HIGHEST REFLECTIVITIES ATTM. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SHOULD CONTINUE TO SURGE SWD ACROSS REMAINDER PHX AREA AND OVER PORTIONS SRN MARICOPA/WRN PINAL COUNTIES BEFORE DISSIPATING. MEANWHILE...PARENT CONVECTION NOW OVER NRN PHX METRO WILL MOVE SEWD AND WEAKEN...PRODUCING OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR SEVERE LEVELS. WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL OVERALL SHOULD DECREASE MARKEDLY AFTER ABOUT ANOTHER HOUR OVER THIS REGION...BECAUSE OF EXPANDING OUTFLOW POOLS...WEAKENING DIABATIC HEATING AND DIMINISHING CONVECTIVE TRENDS. REMAINDER WW PROBABLY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 02Z WITHOUT FURTHER ISSUANCE. ..EDWARDS.. 07/28/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EPZ...TWC...FGZ...PSR... 31980904 33771329 35521329 33740906 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 29 18:55:35 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 29 Jul 2004 13:55:35 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407291854.i6TIswD19669@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 291854 SWOMCD SPC MCD 291853 NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-292130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1792 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0153 PM CDT THU JUL 29 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SE WY...WRN NEB...NE CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 291853Z - 292130Z RISK OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS APPEARS LIKELY TO INCREASE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF WW. FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO EASTERN MONTANA. THIS FEATURE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN MODERATELY STRONG NORTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW REGIME WHICH EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. AXIS OF STRONGER 2 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS HAS DEVELOPED FROM WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL WYOMING AHEAD OF UPPER SYSTEM...AND WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD WITH STRONGER LOW/MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. STRENGTHENING LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION... STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND WEAK LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION ARE ALL CONTRIBUTING TO DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. BY PEAK HEATING...RELATIVELY DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH CAPE OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG...AND MINIMAL INHIBITION...APPEARS LIKELY FROM PARTS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND NORTHEAST COLORADO. THIS SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN ENVIRONMENT WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION. INITIATION APPEARS POSSIBLE BY 20-21Z NORTH/NORTHEAST OF CHEYENNE INTO THE SCOTTSBLUFF/SIDNEY NEB AND AKRON CO AREAS. SUBSEQUENT EVOLUTION/INTENSIFICATION APPEARS LIKELY...WITH A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS... SLOWLY DEVELOPING SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ..KERR.. 07/29/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS... 42830543 42960405 42640301 41800211 40570208 40140291 40500341 41220364 41480418 41940421 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 29 21:22:16 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 29 Jul 2004 16:22:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407292121.i6TLLaD23911@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 292121 SWOMCD SPC MCD 292120 NEZ000-SDZ000-WYZ000-292145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1793 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0420 PM CDT THU JUL 29 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CENTRAL SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 292120Z - 292145Z WW WILL BE ISSUED SOON FOR MUCH OF WRN AND CENTRAL SD. 18Z ETA INDICATED A STRONG SIGNAL FOR CONTINUED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT INTO THE EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF WRN INTO CENTRAL SD... EXCEPT FOR NRN PORTIONS OF THIS AREA. DESPITE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL INSTABILITY...STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL FAVOR THE THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS. ..PETERS.. 07/29/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS... 45350392 45450111 44829997 42860019 42820303 43690433 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 29 21:52:00 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 29 Jul 2004 16:52:00 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407292151.i6TLpND03639@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 292150 SWOMCD SPC MCD 292150 KSZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-292215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1794 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0450 PM CDT THU JUL 29 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 292150Z - 292215Z WW MAY BE REQUIRED SOON FOR SOUTHEAST CO. MID-LEVEL NWLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE EVENING ACROSS SERN CO RESULTING IN A FURTHER INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS COMBINED WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 500 TO AROUND 1000 J/KG AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT A POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS. ..PETERS.. 07/29/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ... 37030521 38150486 39060397 39050199 37820178 36980219 36710410 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 29 22:32:19 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 29 Jul 2004 17:32:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407292231.i6TMVdD18502@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 292230 SWOMCD SPC MCD 292230 SDZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-292300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1795 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0530 PM CDT THU JUL 29 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN INTO CENTRAL NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 671...672... VALID 292230Z - 292300Z WW WILL BE ISSUED SOON FOR PORTIONS OF NRN NEB. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS HAVE CONTINUED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NWRN NEB AND SWRN SD DURING THE LAST HOUR. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING SEWD TOWARD THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL ATTM ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD AND NORTH CENTRAL NEB...A PLUME OF STEEP LAPSE RATES PROGGED TO SPREAD EWD THIS EVENING WILL AID IN FURTHER DESTABILIZATION. THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND EWD INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL SD AND NORTH CENTRAL NEB...WHERE STRONGER FORCING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...AN INCREASING LLJ INTO THIS AREA AND THE BEST CAPE/SHEAR VALUES ARE EXPECTED. A MORE ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL EXTEND SWD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEB WHERE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE WEAKER. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT OVER NERN-EAST CENTRAL CO WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR SEVERE STORMS. ..PETERS.. 07/29/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS... 39110480 42940520 43310408 44960401 44909869 43079867 42159858 41829889 41489948 40580144 40000205 39060207 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Jul 29 23:17:17 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 29 Jul 2004 18:17:17 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407292316.i6TNGbD00645@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 292316 SWOMCD SPC MCD 292315 KSZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-300015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1796 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0615 PM CDT THU JUL 29 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 292315Z - 300015Z ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS SERN CO...BUT A WW IS NOT EXPECTED ATTM. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS SERN CO THIS EVENING AND THE AIR MASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE... STRONGER UPPER FORCING FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THIS AREA. STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP ACROSS SERN CO WILL HAVE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 1000-1500 J/KG/ AND 30-35 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS...WITH AN ISOLATED THREAT OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ..PETERS.. 07/29/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ... 36840513 37490506 38500426 38980220 37680195 37050260 36700320 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 30 00:18:08 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 29 Jul 2004 19:18:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407300017.i6U0HSD19183@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 300017 SWOMCD SPC MCD 300016 SDZ000-300115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1797 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0716 PM CDT THU JUL 29 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN TO SOUTH CENTRAL SD CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 672... VALID 300016Z - 300115Z DAMAGING WIND THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 01Z ACROSS SWRN SD FROM THE COUNTIES OF SRN ZIEBACH TO STANLEY AND WRN HUGHES/WRN SULLY. SMALL BOW ECHO...CURRENTLY MOVING SEWD AT 35 KT ACROSS SRN ZIEBACH COUNTY SD...SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING SEWD. ALTHOUGH THE AIR MASS ACROSS THIS AREA IS MARGINALLY UNSTABLE /MLCAPE BELOW 500 J/KG/...A COLD POOL ESTABLISHED WITH THIS BOW MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN THE SEWD MOVEMENT TO RESULT IN A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. ..PETERS.. 07/30/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...UNR... 44960393 44899871 43079871 43090398 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 30 01:12:29 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 29 Jul 2004 20:12:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407300111.i6U1BpD02740@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 300111 SWOMCD SPC MCD 300110 KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-SDZ000-WYZ000-300145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1798 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0810 PM CDT THU JUL 29 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN WY/NEB PANHANDLE/NERN CO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 671... VALID 300110Z - 300145Z WW 671 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 02Z. OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SHOW AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY EXTENDING FROM SERN WY/SWRN SD SWD ACROSS ERN CO. THE LOSS OF DAY TIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL STABILIZATION OF THIS AIR MASS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. UNTIL THEN...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE... GIVEN STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND THE MODERATE INSTABILITY SUPPORTING A HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT. ..PETERS.. 07/30/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS... 41930504 42990518 42990226 39070204 39090479 40820498 41080434 41430414 41570428 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 30 02:17:59 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 29 Jul 2004 21:17:59 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407300217.i6U2HUD22714@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 300216 SWOMCD SPC MCD 300216 SDZ000-NEZ000-300245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1799 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0916 PM CDT THU JUL 29 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH CENTRAL NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 672...673... VALID 300216Z - 300245Z WW 672 AND WW 673 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 03Z. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW TWO BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS WW 673 AND FAR SRN-SERN WW 672. A STRENGTHENING LLJ NOSING INTO WRN-CENTRAL NEB IS EXPECTED TO SUSTAIN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITHIN A WAA REGIME OVER WRN/CENTRAL NEB AND SRN SD. HOWEVER...OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS THE AIR MASS FEEDING THIS ACTIVITY STABILIZES WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ..PETERS.. 07/30/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR... 41340205 42750206 43140209 43410160 43660104 43649971 43609870 43029841 41649837 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 30 18:56:25 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 30 Jul 2004 13:56:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407301855.i6UItgD27325@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 301855 SWOMCD SPC MCD 301854 OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-302100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1800 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0154 PM CDT FRI JUL 30 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IN/N CNTRL KY THROUGH MUCH OF OHIO CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 301854Z - 302100Z RISK OF GUSTY...POTENTIALLY DAMAGING...WINDS APPEARS LIKELY TO INCREASE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO. WW COULD BECOME NECESSARY. RAPID INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY. THIS IS OCCURRING AS VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER... WITH LOWER/MID 70S DEW POINTS...HEATS TO CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ...PERHAPS AIDED BY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW LIFTING NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER...ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN INDIANA. AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON... LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS WILL STRENGTH ACROSS OHIO AS BULK OF RECENT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SPREADS NORTH OF THE RIVER. DEW POINTS ACROSS OHIO ARE CLIMBING TOWARD 70F...AND WITH MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE INCREASING TO 1500-2000 J/KG...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/INCREASE. EVOLUTION INTO LARGER CONVECTIVE CLUSTER APPEARS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE 21-23Z TIME FRAME ACROSS THE DAYTON/COLUMBUS/MANSFIELD AREAS OF CENTRAL OHIO. AS THIS OCCURS...POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS LIKELY WILL INCREASE AS STRONGER MOMENTUM ASSOCIATED WITH 30 TO 40 KT LOW/MID-LEVEL JET GRADUALLY GETS TRANSFERRED TO THE SURFACE. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...FAVORABLY MOIST/BUOYANT SURFACE-BASED AIR MASS MAY ALSO BE SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADOES. ..KERR.. 07/30/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN...LMK... 39778449 40218402 40918370 41668302 41678118 40418080 39058252 39398208 38488366 38238465 38728488 39078520 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 30 19:11:49 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 30 Jul 2004 14:11:49 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407301911.i6UJB6D01803@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 301910 SWOMCD SPC MCD 301909 WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-302115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1801 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0209 PM CDT FRI JUL 30 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SCNTRL MN/WRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 301909Z - 302115Z LATEST MESOANALYSIS PLACES SFC LOW NEAR LVN WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD NEAR FSD. SFC LOW WILL LIKELY DEEPEN AND SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR STORMS...WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NRN MN ENHANCING LARGE SCALE LIFT. STORMS HAVE BEEN BUBBLING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH A BROKEN LINE DEVELOPING FROM THE SW SUBURBS OF THE TWIN CITIES SOUTH TO NEAR THE IA BORDER. WARM SECTOR HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE...WITH SBCAPE VALUES NEAR 2000 J/KG ACROSS S CNTRL MN. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 8.0 C/KM SUGGEST THERE IS A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL WITH STORMS. MODERATELY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF AROUND 35 KT PER LATEST VAD WIND DATA SHOULD FURTHER CONTRIBUTE TO STORM ORGANIZATION. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A WW IF STORMS CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE/STRENGTHEN. ..TAYLOR.. 07/30/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX...MPX... 43429110 43529386 44729398 45219348 45189126 44599001 43588974 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 30 21:14:00 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 30 Jul 2004 16:14:00 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407302113.i6ULDOD21958@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 302112 SWOMCD SPC MCD 302112 OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-302145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1802 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0412 PM CDT FRI JUL 30 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN-CENTRAL KY INTO FAR SRN IND INTO FAR SWRN OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 302112Z - 302145Z TORNADO WATCH MAY BE ISSUED SHORTLY FOR PORTIONS OF WRN-CENTRAL KY INTO FAR SRN IND AND FAR SWRN OH. PARAMETERS HAVE BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR POSSIBLE TORNADOES ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN-CENTRAL KY INTO FAR SRN IND AND FAR SWRN OH...WHERE THE AIR MASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE GIVEN SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S. 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 20 KT AND LCL VALUES ARE LOW SUPPORTING A TORNADO THREAT. REGIONAL RADARS ALREADY SHOWED A ROTATING STORM OVER NRN CHRISTIAN COUNTY MOVING NEWD INTO MUHLENBERG COUNTY. ..PETERS.. 07/30/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH... 36598736 37088805 38478688 39338447 39138362 38598326 38058342 37348410 36658562 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Jul 30 22:27:04 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 30 Jul 2004 17:27:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407302226.i6UMQMD15943@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 302225 SWOMCD SPC MCD 302225 OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-310030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1803 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0525 PM CDT FRI JUL 30 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR WRN OK/SWRN KS/TX PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 302225Z - 310030Z ...ISOLATED SVR STORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREAT... TOWERING CUMULUS/CBS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG A BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM GAG INTO NW OK AND ALONG A DRYLINE EXTENDING INTO THE TX PANHANDLE PER LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG. STRONG CONVECTIVE INHIBITION HAS THUS FAR PREVENTED ANY DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS...BUT IT NOW APPEARS CAP IS WEAKENING...SO ANY STORMS WHICH CAN DEVELOP MAY BECOME SEVERE. FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINED WITH MODERATELY STRONG NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS WITH THE MAIN THREAT FROM LARGE HAIL. LOCAL HAIL MODEL SUGGESTS THAT HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. COVERAGE OF STORMS SHOULD BE ISOLATED...SO A WW MAY NOT BE NECESSARY. ..TAYLOR/PETERS.. 07/30/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB... 38610184 37719880 36439871 35099945 34750115 36480181 37880232 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 31 00:05:40 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 30 Jul 2004 19:05:40 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407310005.i6V056D11019@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 310004 SWOMCD SPC MCD 310004 KYZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-310100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1804 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0704 PM CDT FRI JUL 30 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL KY/SRN IND INTO FAR SWRN OH CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 674... VALID 310004Z - 310100Z PARAMETERS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL KY INTO SRN IND AND FAR SWRN OH. AREA VAD DATA FROM KY/CENTRAL-SRN IND INTO SWRN OH SHOW LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES HAVE INCREASED...BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. DESPITE WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...THE SHEAR VALUES AND MOIST AIR MASS WITH LOW LCLS WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES WITHIN TORNADO WATCH 674 FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. A TORNADO THREAT WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF WW 674 WHERE SIMILAR SHEAR PARAMETERS EXIST...BUT AREAL COVERAGE APPEARS TO SMALL TO WARRANT AN ADDITIONAL WW ATTM. ..PETERS.. 07/31/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND... 36688687 37328684 37568637 38248637 39078650 39568546 39598414 37828429 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 31 16:34:19 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 31 Jul 2004 11:34:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407311633.i6VGXfD31162@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 311632 SWOMCD SPC MCD 311632 NHZ000-VTZ000-MAZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-311830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1805 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1132 AM CDT SAT JUL 31 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NE PA/ERN NY INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 311632Z - 311830Z RISK OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS APPEARS TO BE SLOWLY INCREASING...AND WW COULD BECOME NECESSARY WITHIN NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER WARM SECTOR ARE LIMITING FACTOR WITH REGARD TO DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL REMAIN THE CASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AS PRIMARY UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO ONTARIO/WESTERN QUEBEC. HOWEVER...IN SOUTHWESTERLY SUBTROPICAL BELT EAST OF UPPER TROUGH...A MID/HIGH-LEVEL IMPULSE IS EVIDENT IN LATEST IMAGERY LIFTING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS FEATURE APPEARS TO BE PROVIDING FORCING FOR NARROW CONVECTIVE BAND...NOW SLOWLY INTENSIFYING SOUTHEAST OF WATERTOWN NY INTO THE WILLIAMSPORT PA AREA. DESPITE MINIMAL CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY...VERY MOIST/CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT WILL SUPPORT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION THROUGH THE PEAK HEATING HOURS FROM NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE HUDSON/CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. WHILE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT DOES NOT APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR HAIL...MOMENTUM ASSOCIATED WITH 40 KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS NEW YORK STATE SUPPORTS RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS IT LIFTS TOWARD THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF THIS MOMENTUM WILL BE ENHANCED AS RAINFALL RATES IN DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE BAND INTENSIFY DURING THE 18-21Z TIME ACROSS THE BURLINGTON VT/ALBANY NY/WILKES-BARRE/SCRANTON AREAS. ..KERR.. 07/31/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP... 45057154 44267190 43497249 42657311 41447443 41017543 40987621 41187664 41917576 42577522 43427458 44917392 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 31 17:13:44 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 31 Jul 2004 12:13:44 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407311712.i6VHCwD11227@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 311710 SWOMCD SPC MCD 311710 MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-311945- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1806 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1210 PM CDT SAT JUL 31 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN DAKOTAS...WRN MN CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 311710Z - 311945Z RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND WW COULD BECOME NECESSARY WITHIN NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS. AHEAD OF LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING IN THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES...LOWER/MID-TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION HAS BECOME FOCUSED ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN DAKOTAS/WESTERN MINNESOTA. THIS APPEARS TO BE STRONGEST...BENEATH NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW REGIME... IN A CORRIDOR NORTH/NORTHEAST OF ABERDEEN SD INTO THE REDWOOD FALLS MN AREA. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT /STEEPENING LAPSE RATES/...IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING...IS SUPPORTING FAIRLY RAPID DESTABILIZATION...AND MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE IS PROGGED TO EXCEED 2000 J/KG BY PEAK HEATING. ON NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL CAP...FORCING IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT SURFACE-BASED CONVECTIVE INITIATION AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES APPROACH/EXCEED 80F THIS AFTERNOON. THIS APPEARS POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS THE 19-20Z TIME FRAME...WITH FURTHER INCREASE/INTENSIFICATION LIKELY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. SHEAR PROFILES ON NOSE OF SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET ARE ALREADY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...AND THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...POSSIBLY ISOLATED TORNADOES BY LATE AFTERNOON. ..KERR.. 07/31/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS... 46729737 46739590 45849456 44469395 43819378 43289453 43379605 44249655 45159739 45549838 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 31 20:08:36 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 31 Jul 2004 15:08:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407312007.i6VK7rD30907@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 312007 SWOMCD SPC MCD 312006 MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-MAZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-312130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1807 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0306 PM CDT SAT JUL 31 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN PA/NJ/ERN NY//NRN MD/WRN NEW ENGLAND CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 675... VALID 312006Z - 312130Z ...THREAT FOR WET MICROBURST WINDS CONTINUES ACROSS WW 675 AND ERN PORTIONS OF PA... MAIN INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH ERN PA/SERN NY WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S. BROKEN LINE OF STORMS NOW EXTENDING FROM BVT/BGM/SEG/MRB IS INTENSIFYING AS IT MOVES INTO THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG. FAIRLY STRONG SFC RIDGING AND STRONG LOW LEVEL SWLY FLOW SUGGEST STORMS WILL PROPAGATE MORE TO THE NORTHEAST THAN EAST...AFFECTING SRN PORTIONS OF WW 675 AND ERN PA NEXT 1-3 HOURS. FLOW IS WEAKER FARTHER SOUTH...SO MAIN THREAT WILL BE CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE WATCH AND NERN PA. SINCE LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK...HAIL THREAT WILL BE MINIMIZED WITH WET MICROBURSTS THE GREATER CONCERN. ..TAYLOR.. 07/31/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX... 44927100 41777335 39717629 39477829 43257494 45037337 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Jul 31 21:45:44 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 31 Jul 2004 16:45:44 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200407312144.i6VLixD25940@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 312144 SWOMCD SPC MCD 312143 IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-312245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1808 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0443 PM CDT SAT JUL 31 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN SD...NERN NEB...NWRN IA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 676... VALID 312143Z - 312245Z ...WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SERN SD...NERN NEB...NWRN IA SHORTLY... STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING APPEARS TO BE COMPENSATING FOR APPARENT WEAKNESS IN LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SD/NEB BORDER WHERE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEEPEN. THIS ACTIVITY IS RELATIVELY HIGH BASED WITHIN STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT...BUT MAY GRADUALLY LOWER AS UPDRAFTS ENCOUNTER INCREASINGLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT WHERE SFC DEW POINTS ARE HOLDING IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70F. LARGE SCALE WARM ADVECTION REGIME APPEARS CONDUCIVE FOR ACTIVITY TO PROPAGATE SEWD ONCE UPDRAFTS BECOME ESTABLISHED. STRONG INSTABILITY FAVORS AT LEAST LARGE HAIL AND WIND...AND PERHAPS A TORNADO. WW IS BEING CONSIDERED. ..DARROW.. 07/31/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...LBF... 43679741 43069538 41769572 41639744 42579874 43329847 WWWW