[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 301855
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301854 
MNZ000-302130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2593
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1254 PM CST THU DEC 30 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NE/NCNTRL MN

CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION 

VALID 301854Z - 302130Z

FREEZING RAIN WITH HOURLY ACCUMULATIONS OF 0.10 IN POSSIBLE WILL
PERSIST THROUGH APPROX 21Z ACROSS MUCH OF NE/NCNTRL NM. PRECIP TYPE
WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN ACROSS NE MN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

WV IMAGERY DEPICTS NEARLY STACKED LOW ADVANCING EWD THROUGH WRN
ND...WHILE LATEST MESOANALYSIS FEATURES WARM FRONT GRADUALLY LIFTING
NWD ACROSS SRN MN AND ERN IA/SW WI AT 18Z. LOW LEVEL WARM NOSE
CENTERED IN 800-850 MB LAYER...AS EVIDENCE IN 12Z MPX RAOB AND
UPSTREAM 12Z OAX/TOP RAOBS...CONTINUES TO ADVECT N/NE AHEAD OF THE
WRN ND CYCLONE. 

GIVEN SHALLOW LAYER OF SUB-FREEZING TEMPS REMAINING ACROSS NE/NCNTRL
MN AT MIDDAY...ELEVATED WARM LAYER OF 3-4 DEG C WILL SUPPORT
COMPLETE MELTING AND RESULTANT FREEZING RAIN PRECIP TYPE THROUGH
APPROX 21Z. THEREAFTER...OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND 15Z RUC/09Z SREF
CONSENSUS SUGGESTS CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER
NE MN AS BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS ABOVE FREEZING.

..GUYER.. 12/30/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A 
SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC...
06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT
RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD.  THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE
USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28.

ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...

48729439 48689328 48279175 48039006 47868994 47009190
47179343 47319435 47519513 47719547 48169527 

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