[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 301222
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301222 
WIZ000-MIZ000-MNZ000-301615-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2591
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0622 AM CST THU DEC 30 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...N-CENTRAL/NRN MN...CENTRAL/NRN WI...AND WRN UPPER
MI

CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN 

VALID 301222Z - 301615Z

DEVELOPING AXIS OF FREEZING RAIN EXPECTED FROM NEAR MN/ND BORDER
ESEWD INTO CENTRAL WI...LIFTING NNEWD AND INTENSIFYING THROUGH 18Z.
SIGNIFICANT FREEZING RAIN RATES OF 0.1"/HR POSSIBLE BY LATE MORNING.


STRONG 990MB SURFACE CYCLONE CENTERED OVER FAR SERN MT WILL TRACK
ENEWD ACROSS THE SRN TIER OF ND THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS. SURFACE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER
DEFINED FROM NWRN SD ESEWD INTO NWRN IA...WITH 3-4MB/2HR PRESSURE
FALL AXIS EVIDENT FROM N-CENTRAL ND SEWD TO WRN WI ASSOCIATED WITH
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME.

FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE DISCUSSION
REGION THROUGH 30/18Z AS LEFT EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET MOVES NEWD
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY. INCREASING
TRENDS ON MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY ARE NOTED WITH INCREASED UVV ACROSS
CENTRAL SD TRACKING NEWD. ADDITIONALLY....NEWD MOVING BAND OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION EXTENDS ACROSS E-CENTRAL MN TO S-CENTRAL WI ON NRN
EDGE OF WARM ADVECTION. THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD INTENSIFY
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. 
INCREASED LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES CONDUCIVE FOR FREEZING RAIN...CONSISTENT WITH RUC AND ETA
MODEL SOUNDINGS WARMING 850MB LEVEL TO +4C. SURFACE TEMPERATURES
FROM FAR TO BRD TO CWA ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID 20S. THOUGH SOME
SLOW WARMING IS LIKELY...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR INCREASING FREEZING
RAIN RATES ALONG THIS AXIS LATE THIS MORNING...WITH RATES OF
0.05-0.10"/HR POSSIBLE BY 18Z. THE 09Z RUC INDICATES FREEZING RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS IN EXCESS OF 0.25" ALONG AN AXIS FROM BRD TO 40 S DLH
TO 35 W AUW BETWEEN 15-18Z...WITH FREEZING RAIN AND POSSIBLE SLEET
SPREADING NNEWD INTO THE ARROWHEAD AND WRN UPPER MI DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS.

..BANACOS.. 12/30/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A 
SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC...
06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT
RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD.  THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE
USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28.

ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...MPX...FGF...

45859301 46159407 46389484 46539638 46779667 48329626
47369117 46638936 45918830 44788798 44078845 43618879
43748976 44689132 

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