[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 260631
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260631 
NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-261230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2580
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1231 AM CST SUN DEC 26 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL GA/SC/ERN NC/SRN VA

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 

VALID 260631Z - 261230Z

...MAJOR FREEZING RAIN/SLEET EVENT DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MIDLANDS OF
SC/PIEDMONT OF NC WITH SLEET/SLOW LIKELY WRN FRINGE OF PRECIP
AREA...

CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF FREEZING
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...AT TIMES MIXING WITH SLEET WITH
SLEET/SNOW IN AREAS FARTHER ENTRENCHED INTO THE COLD AIR. LATEST
SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW WIDESPREAD HEAVIER PRECIPITATION ACROSS
 THE FL PANHANDLE INTO SERN AL/SRN GA...LIKELY INDICATIVE OF THE
STRONGER SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXIT REGION OF AN ADJACENT
120KT UPPER JET. AS THE AREA OF LIFT SPREADS NEWD OVER THE COLD
ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE AT THE SFC...WIDESPREAD FZRA WILL DEVELOP FROM
GA THROUGH THE MIDLANDS OF SC. 

LATEST RUC SFC OBSERVATIONAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE WET BULB ZERO LINE
FROM NEAR MCN/TBR...WHILE FREEZING TEMPS AT THE SFC ARE GENERALLY
NORTH OR WEST OF A GSP/HRJ/FKN LINE. SINCE LITTLE ADDITIONAL LOW
LEVEL COLD ADVECTION IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...ANY POINTS NORTH OF THE
CURRENT POSITION OF THE WET BULB ZERO LINE WILL BE AT RISK FOR FZRA
ONCE PRECIPITATION BEGINS. 00Z OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM GSO /
GREENSBORO NC / HAS A PROFILE COMPLETELY BELOW FREEZING...WHICH
SUGGESTS SNOW IS THE MOST LIKELY PRECIPITATION TYPE ONCE SATURATION
OCCURS. 

ASSUMING GSO IS REPRESENTATIVE OF THE AIRMASS SWWD INTO SC...IT IS
LIKELY THAT SLEET AND SNOW WILL BE THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE
ACROSS MOST OF NC...AND WEST OF COLUMBIA SC. FOR EXAMPLE...PFC
SOUNDINGS FROM THE ETA INDICATE LOCATIONS SUCH AS RDU/FAY WILL
EXPERIENCE ALL SNOW...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES GIVEN
BANDED STRUCTURES OBSERVED ON CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY. FZRA IS ALREADY
BEING REPORTED AT COLUMBIA SC...AND THIS SEEMS LIKELY SWWD TO MCN.

..TAYLOR.. 12/26/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A 
SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC...
06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT
RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD.  THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE
USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28.

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC...

36937711 36097933 32668469 32058409 33188037 34977772
35977653 36507647 

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