[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 252041
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252041 
FLZ000-252145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2578
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0241 PM CST SAT DEC 25 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...S FL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 252041Z - 252145Z

RECENT LIGHTNING STRIKE DENSITY AND SATELLITE LOOPS SUGGEST THAT
TSTMS HAVE WEAKENED ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/WARM FRONT OFFSHORE
SWRN FL.  THE WEAKENING TREND IS PROBABLY DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER THE WRN GULF IS BEGINNING TO TURN MORE NELY
WITH TIME...LIMITING THE LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS AS FAR S AS SRN
FL.  TSTMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING SWD ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH AND
WILL APPROACH SWRN FL EARLY THIS EVENING.  AIR MASS HAS DESTABILIZED
AS WARM AND MOIST MARITIME BOUNDARY LAYER HAS SURGED NWD INTO SRN FL
THIS AFTERNOON AND THE SEVERE THREATS /DAMAGING WINDS-ISOLD
TORNADOES/ WILL REMAIN.

GIVEN THE RECENT WEAKENING TREND...WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF ON ORIGINAL 
THINKING OF A WW ISSUANCE BY 21Z.  IF/WHEN CONVECTION BEGINS TO
BECOME STRONGER...WW MAY BE REQUIRED THIS EVENING.

..RACY.. 12/25/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...

26558205 27378029 27027969 25947978 25578051 25258162
25748237 

WWWW