[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 220046
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220046 
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-220245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2557
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0646 PM CST TUE DEC 21 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ARKLATEX

CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS 

VALID 220046Z - 220245Z

...THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE ARKLATEX
REGION...

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED ALONG WRN EDGE OF DEEPER
MOISTURE PLUME...IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF SFC FRONT.  THIS ACTIVITY
APPEARS ROOTED IN/NEAR THE BOUNDARY LAYER BASED ON 00Z SOUNDING DATA
FROM FWD/SHV.  LATEST DIAGNOSTIC FIELDS SUGGEST MARGINAL CLOUD LAYER
LAPSE RATES ARE YIELDING MUCAPES ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG.  LARGE
SCALE WARM ADVECTION SHOULD MAINTAIN THIS ACTIVITY WITH A TENDENCY
FOR ADDITIONAL...SLIGHTLY ELEVATED...UPDRAFTS TO EVOLVE NEWD INTO AR
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A SIGNIFICANT
THREAT OF LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS THIS REGION GIVEN THE
THERMAL PROFILES OBSERVED.

..DARROW.. 12/22/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...HGX...FWD...

31889578 33619488 34849347 34379253 32799337 31169468 

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