[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 200052
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200052 
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-200645-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2546
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0652 PM CST SUN DEC 19 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME ERN ND/NWRN MN

CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION 

VALID 200052Z - 200645Z

SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NWRN MN SPREADING INTO
THE MN ARROWHEAD AFTER MIDNIGHT. STRONG S WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH
MAY CREATE WHITEOUT CONDITIONS TONIGHT. THREAT ALSO EXISTS FOR SOME
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/SLEET DEVELOPING.

LATEST ANALYSIS PLACES WARM FRONT ACROSS THE CNTRL DAKOTAS ROUGHLY
EAST OF A MINOT ND/PHILLIPS SD LINE. CURRENT SFC TEMPERATURES IN THE
WRN DAKOTAS HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID 40S TO 50 IN RAP CITY AS OF
20/00Z...WHILE TEMPS EAST OF THE FRONT ARE IN THE TEENS. WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION IS ALREADY DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO STRONG ISENTROPIC
LIFT/WAA ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG WARM FRONT. ADDITIONALLY...THERE
IS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING THROUGH CNTRL ALBERTA AND LARGE
SCALE LIFT WILL BE FURTHER ENHANCED ON NOSE OF APPROACHING 100+ KT
UPPER JET. FIRST WAVE OF SNOW WHICH IS ONGOING WILL MOVE ACROSS NRN
MN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT ETA/RUC DEPICT A FRONTAL PCPN BAND
DEVELOPING BETWEEN 03-06Z WHICH MAY AFFECT EXTREME ERN ND AND NRN MN
OVERNIGHT.

WITH A 50+ KT LOW LEVEL JET AND RAPIDLY WARMING 850MB TEMPS...SOME
QUESTION EXISTS FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING TOWARD 06Z. 00Z
OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM BISMARCK HAS 850MB TEMPS NEAR 8C WITH
ABERDEEN NEAR 4C. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME SLEET IS THE MOST
LIKELY POSSIBILITY. HOWEVER...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES INDICATE LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN COULD DEVELOP IF FORECAST 850MB TEMPS RISE TO 3-4C
WHICH WOULD MELT FROZEN PRECIPITATION AT THAT LEVEL. SFC TEMPS WILL
BE WELL BELOW FREEZING...SO SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE
MAINLY OVER NRN MN.

..TAYLOR.. 12/20/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A 
SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC...
06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT
RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD.  THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE
USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28.

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...

46209386 45779665 46849722 48929704 49509593 49559417
49149319 47339328 46669352 

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