[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 190533
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190532 
INZ000-MIZ000-190930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2543
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1132 PM CST SAT DEC 18 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NRN IND AND FAR SWRN MI

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

VALID 190532Z - 190930Z

LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS FAR NRN IND AND
FAR SWRN MI THROUGH 19/11Z. SNOW RATES UP TO 2"/HR POSSIBLE AT TIMES
OVER LOCALIZED AREAS EXPERIENCING STRONGEST BANDS. 

STRONG LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
SRN GREAT LAKES REGION AS ARCTIC BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM WRN LAKE
ERIE SWWD ACROSS NWRN OH TO CENTRAL IL CONTINUES TO PUSH SEWD. RUC
INDICATES 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -10C WILL FALL TO AROUND -20C BY
12Z ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. COUPLED WITH LAKE TEMPERATURES
AROUND +6C AND A LONG NLY FETCH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN...LOW-LEVEL
INSTABILITY PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWS. 
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS MINIMAL PER CHICAGO VAD THROUGH 2.5KM...AND ETA
MODEL WINDS INDICATE LITTLE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR THROUGH 11Z ACROSS FAR
NRN IND...WHICH SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF A SINGLE INTENSE BAND
DEVELOPING OVER SRN LAKE MICHIGAN DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
ADDITIONALLY...INVERSION HEIGHTS REMAIN IN 8-9KFT RANGE PER ETA
FORECAST MAINTAINING SIGNIFICANT DEPTH OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE LAKE
AND FORECAST OF LOCALIZED 1-2"/HR RATES BETWEEN 6-11Z. RUC IS
SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS AROUND 7KFT. MEAN
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD REMAIN 350-355 DEG AT 30KTS BEFORE
VEERING BETWEEN 10-12Z TO 360-005 DEG.

..BANACOS.. 12/19/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A 
SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC...
06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT
RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD.  THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE
USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28.

ATTN...WFO...IWX...LOT...

41658707 41628728 41668748 41318745 41248735 41228702
41348660 41598643 41988639 42188639 41888664 

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