[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 181840
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181840 
MIZ000-WIZ000-182245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2541
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1240 PM CST SAT DEC 18 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...UPPER PENINSULA OF MI/FAR NRN WI

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

VALID 181840Z - 182245Z

LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE WRN
UPPER PENINSULA OF MI AND FAR NRN WI WITH BRIEF HEAVY SNOW RATES OF
UP TO 2"/HR. LAKE ENHANCED SNOW BANDS WILL AFFECT THE LOWER
PENINSULA THIS AFTN.

LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES ARCTIC FRONT EXTENDS FROM SFC LOW IN
NERN ONTARIO SWWD ALONG ISQ/GRB/ISW LINE. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS N/S LAKE EFFECT SNOWBANDS FROM WRN LAKE SUPERIOR EWD. HOWEVER
RADAR IMAGERY ACROSS THE CNTRL U.P. OF MI SUGGESTS BANDS ARE
DISORGANIZED...LIKELY DUE TO WEAK LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. RUC
OBSERVATIONAL ANALYSIS SHOWS CURRENT TEMPS AT 850 MB ARE AROUND -10C
TO -15C ACROSS NRN WI/WRN U.P. OF MI. UPPER TROUGH AXIS...NOTED AS A
DARKENING AREA IN WV IMAGERY ACROSS THE MN ARROWHEAD...WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION BY TONIGHT...ENHANCING LARGE SCALE LIFT.
TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB ARE FORECAST TO DROP BETWEEN 5-10 DEGREES C
BY 19/00Z...RESULTING IN MORE FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR
LAKE EFFECT SNOW THIS AFTN/TONIGHT. 

THE HIGHEST SNOW RATES OVER THE NEXT 4 HOURS OR SO WILL LIKELY
EXTEND FROM VILAS/ONTONAGON/HOUGHTON COUNTIES ON THE WEST...TO
MARQUETTE/DICKINSON ON THE EAST. FETCH OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL FAVOR
AREAS WHERE NLY SFC WINDS ARE STRONGEST.

MEANWHILE...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN
LIGHT-MOD SNOW ACROSS THE LOWER PENINSULA OF MI. HEAVY SNOW RATES
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THIS AREA UNTIL LATER THIS
AFTN/TONIGHT.

..TAYLOR.. 12/18/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A 
SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC...
06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT
RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD.  THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE
USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28.

ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...

45788866 45878947 46298949 46818885 46978821 46758740
46538715 46148743 46048763 45918823 

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