[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 082348
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 082347 
LAZ000-TXZ000-090115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2521
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0547 PM CST WED DEC 08 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...UPPER TX COAST INTO SWRN LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 082347Z - 090115Z

ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS
DISCUSSION AREA THIS EVENING. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED
FOR POSSIBLE OUTLOOK UPGRADE AND WW ISSUANCE.

23Z MESOANALYSIS INDICATES PRIMARY WARM FRONT ACROSS THE NWRN GULF
FROM NEAR BRO NEWD TO APPROXIMATELY 30-40 NM OFF GALVESTON BAY TO
JUST OFF THE SERN LA COAST. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
COUPLED WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 7 C/KM ARE CONTRIBUTING
TO MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG S OF THIS BOUNDARY OVER THE NWRN GULF
OF MEXICO. WITH APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
WRN TX...EXPECT THIS BOUNDARY TO LIFT NWD...ALLOWING FOR THIS
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP ALONG THE UPPER TX COAST INTO
SWRN LA. FORECAST HODOGRAPHS SUGGEST THAT WIND FIELDS ALONG COAST
WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED TSTMS...INCLUDING THE
POSSIBILITY SUPERCELLS. DAMAGING WINDS AND A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SURFACE-BASED STORMS...WHILE ELEVATED
DEVELOPMENT N OF BOUNDARY WILL BE CAPABLE OF MAINLY MARGINAL HAIL.

..MEAD.. 12/08/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...

28969622 29869560 30519432 30639311 30599228 30039198
29569225 29459386 28689569 

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