[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 062258
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 062258 
TXZ000-OKZ000-ARZ000-070030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2505
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0458 PM CST MON DEC 06 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/N-CENTRAL/NE TX...SERN
OK...EXTREME SWRN AR.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 910...911...

VALID 062258Z - 070030Z

NEW WW WILL BE REQUIRED OVER PORTIONS NE TX AND POSSIBLY SW OK IN
NEXT 1-2 HOURS...E OF PRESENT WWS.  MOST INTENSE PORTION OF
EXTENSIVE SQUALL LINE IS MOVING ENEWD 40-45 KT...WITH EMBEDDED BOW
ECHO EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING ACROSS SRN PORTIONS DFW
METROPLEX.  MEASURED GUSTS 40-50 KT AND HIGHER SPOTTER ESTIMATES
HAVE BEEN RECEIVED DURING PAST COUPLE HOURS WITH THIS SEGMENT OF
CONVECTION.  EXPECT POTENTIAL TO PERSIST FOR DOWNDRAFTS TO PENETRATE
SHALLOW NEAR-SFC STABLE LAYER AND CAUSE OCCASIONAL DAMAGE.  SEVERE
POTENTIAL WILL BE SOMEWHAT LOWER IN ASSOCIATION WITH NRN PART OF
THIS LINE -- OVER WW 910 AND LARGELY N OF RED RIVER...BUT SOME PART
OF THIS AREA MAY NEED TO BE INCLUDED IN A NEW WW AS WELL.  THIS
CONVECTION WILL BE MOVING INTO A REGION OF LOWER ELEVATED MUCAPE AND
DEEPER STABLE LAYER NEAR SFC.

FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE OVER
FOREGOING WARM SECTOR AS UPPER TROUGH NOW OVER W TX MOVES ENEWD
TOWARD N TX AND MAIN BODY OF OK.  VWP/PROFILERS CONSISTENTLY
INDICATE 60-70 KT 500 MB FLOW OVER THIS AREA...CONTRIBUTING TO 70-75
KT 0-6 KM AGL SHEAR.  LOW LEVEL WAA IS CONTRIBUTING TO A GREAT RANGE
OF ELEVATED MUCAPE -- FROM AROUND 2000 J/KG INVOF SRN EDGE OF WW
911...TO LESS THAN 500 J/KG FROM MLC EWD INTO SWRN AR. ..BASED ON
ADJUSTED RUC SOUNDINGS.

..EDWARDS.. 12/06/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...TSA...LZK...SHV...HGX...

31619596 31609935 33779906 33779559 

33779603 33309972 35209976 35669603 

35369602 35379519 35169397 34829384 34069390 33189405
31589459 31569599 33789558 33789602