[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 060458
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060457 COR
NMZ000-AZZ000-061100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2500
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1057 PM CST SUN DEC 05 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL/ERN AZ  AND SWRN NM ABOVE
5000 FT

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

VALID 060457Z - 061100Z

CORRECTED FOR MCD GRAPHIC AREA

HVY SNOW WITH HOURLY RATES FROM 1-2 INCHES WILL DEVELOP AND SPREAD
EWD ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CNTRL/ERN AZ BETWEEN 05-08Z AND
OVER SWRN NM BETWEEN 09-12Z. A 2-3 HOUR PERIOD OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW
IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR BEFORE DIMINISHING TRENDS ENSUE FROM WEST TO
EAST BEGINNING AFTER 09Z.

LATEST IR IMAGERY INDICATED A COMPACT UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER SAN
DIEGO MOVING EWD AROUND 20 KTS. STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF
ASSOCIATED JET MAX WAS SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE
PRECIPITATION OVER THE DESERTS OF SERN CA/SWRN AZ. IN ADDITION TO
THE WELL PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL LIFT...AS THE UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES
TO PROGRESS EWD OVERNIGHT...MODERATE LOW-MID LEVEL SSWLY FLOW
EVIDENT BY RECENT PHOENIX/FLAGSTAFF VWP/S WILL INCREASE OROGRAPHIC
LIFT AND SATURATION INTO THE S-SW FACING SLOPES OF MTNS IN ERN
AZ/SWRN NM OVER THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS. SNOW LEVELS BETWEEN 5500-6000 FT
BASED ON THE 00Z TUS SOUNDING AND CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AT PRESCOTT
MAY LOWER SLIGHTLY TO AROUND 4500-5000 FT WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF
SNOW DEVELOPMENT DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF DYNAMIC LIFT. STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM 6.5-7.0 C/KM COMBINED WITH ALREADY FAVORABLE
OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL SUPPORT SNOWFALL RATES APPROACHING 2 INCHES/HR
IN THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC PRECIPITATION BAND.

..CROSBIE.. 12/06/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A 
SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 05-06 UTC...
11-12 UTC...17-18 UTC...AND 23-00 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT
RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD.  THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE
USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28 TO ALLOW PARTNERS
AND USERS TO BETTER ANTICIPATE THE TIMING OF SPC WINTER WEATHER
MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS.

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

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