From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Dec 1 05:58:28 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 01 Dec 2004 00:58:28 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412010600.iB160VE10707@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 010559 SWOMCD SPC MCD 010559 MIZ000-011000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2494 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1159 PM CST TUE NOV 30 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER MI CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION VALID 010559Z - 011000Z OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS/SHORT TERM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS CNTRL/SRN LOWER MI OVERNIGHT. SNOWFALL RATES MAY REACH 1 IN/HR FOR A FEW HOURS OVERNIGHT...NAMELY THROUGH 09Z ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF LOWER MI...AND 11Z ACROSS ERN LOWER MI EAST OF LAN/AMN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSITIONING E/NE OVER IL/IN ATTM...WITH ATTENDANT 1000 MB SFC LOW CONTINUING TO DEEPEN ACROSS NW OH AT 05Z. IN NW QUADRANT OF CYCLONE...DEFORMATION BAND JUXTAPOSED WITH UPPER JET ENHANCED UVVS SPREADING EWD ACROSS LOWER MI. OVER PAST FEW HOURS...PRECIP TYPE HAS TRANSITIONED TO SNOW AS FAR SOUTH AS BIV/GRR CORRIDOR. IN ACCORDANCE WITH PRECIP TYPE ALGORITHMS...THIS TREND EXPECTED TO SPREAD S/E AS CYCLONE CONTINUES TO ADVANCE NEWD AND COLDER AIR IS ENTRAINED ACROSS LOWER MI. GIVEN ULTIMATE CHANGE OVER TO SNOW...03Z RUC POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS -- IN CONJUNCTION WITH IR SATELLITE DERIVED CLOUD TOP TRENDS -- SUGGEST FAVORABLE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER /650 MB AND HIGHER/ AND NET UVVS MAY SUPPORT SNOW RATES APPROACHING 1 IN/HR FOR A FEW HOURS OVERNIGHT. FURTHERMORE...DEFORMATION/MODEST MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO GENERAL SW-NE ORIENTATION OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL. ..GUYER.. 12/01/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 05-06 UTC... 11-12 UTC...17-18 UTC...AND 23-00 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28 TO ALLOW PARTNERS AND USERS TO BETTER ANTICIPATE THE TIMING OF SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS. ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR... 43748324 43148325 42448390 42008465 41968572 42448603 43118587 43808504 44048367 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Dec 1 12:09:56 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 01 Dec 2004 07:09:56 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412011211.iB1CBvE07617@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 011210 SWOMCD SPC MCD 011210 MEZ000-011715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2495 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0610 AM CST WED DEC 01 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN ME CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION VALID 011210Z - 011715Z MDT AND/OR POSSIBLY HEAVY WET SNOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NRN ME THIS MORNING. SNOWFALL RATES MAY REACH 1 IN/HR FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS MORNING AMIDST HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN ME. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PORTRAYS FAST MOVING/COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER LAKE ERIE VICINITY. AT 11Z...DEEPENING 992 MB SFC LOW OVER LAKE ERIE PRECEDED BY STRONG PRESSURE FALLS CENTERED OVER UPSTATE NY. AHEAD OF THIS CYCLONE...DPVA/UPPER JET ENHANCED UVVS COMBINED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION/MOISTURE TRANSPORT REGIME WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING PRECIPITATION RATES ACROSS NRN ME...MAINLY IN FORM OF SNOW THIS MORNING. 09Z RUC GUIDANCE/12Z CAR RAOB SUGGESTS LOW LEVEL PROFILES REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF NW/NRN ME. HOWEVER LOW LEVEL WARMING OCCURRING ACROSS DOWNSTATE ME AS EVIDENT IN NWD RETREAT OF 32F SFC WET BULB ZERO LINE OVER PAST FEW HOURS. WITH LOW LEVELS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY COLD THROUGH THE MORNING...STRONG UVVS COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE DENDRITIC PROFILES SUGGEST MDT/POSSIBLY HEAVY WET SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS MORNING IN NRN ME...ALTHOUGH ENCROACHING WARM AIR/LOW SNOW TO LIQUID WATER RATIOS WILL TEND TO LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS. 09Z RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PRECIP TYPE MAY CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX AFTER 18Z ACROSS ALL BUT EXTREME NRN ME /I.E. CAR VICINITY/ OWING TO LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF ADVANCING CYCLONE. ..GUYER.. 12/01/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 05-06 UTC... 11-12 UTC...17-18 UTC...AND 23-00 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28 TO ALLOW PARTNERS AND USERS TO BETTER ANTICIPATE THE TIMING OF SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS. ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX... 47406898 46996776 46096839 45006986 44867035 45107099 45527067 45887035 46616989 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 3 17:25:46 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 03 Dec 2004 12:25:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412031727.iB3HRcE16792@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 031727 SWOMCD SPC MCD 031726 MEZ000-032030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2496 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1126 AM CST FRI DEC 03 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/CENTRAL ME COAST CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 031726Z - 032030Z MESOSCALE REGION OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL AFFECT THE SRN THROUGH CENTRAL ME COASTAL AREAS THROUGH 21Z...WITH DIMINISHING RATES THEREAFTER. STRONG 500MB THERMAL TROUGH AXIS...WITH TEMPERATURES OF -36C...CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS UPSTATE NY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL MOVE OFF THE SRN ME COAST BETWEEN 21-00Z. TWELVE HOUR HEIGHT FALLS OF 120M WERE NOTED AT CHH AND ALB WITH MORNING RAOB DATA...IN ADDITION TO JET STREAK OF 70-80KT PASSING OVER LI AND SRN NEW ENGLAND. COMBINATION OF UPPER DIVERGENCE IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF JET AND PVA CONTRIBUTED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW ACROSS SRN ME THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOW AUGMENTING LARGE-SCALE LIFT CREATING A MESOSCALE REGION OF MOD/HVY SNOWFALL. THE 12Z GYX SOUNDING INDICATED AN 850-500MB LAPSE RATE OF 6.4 C/KM...WHICH THE RUC STEEPENS TO 7.5 C/KM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH A COMBINATION OF ASCENT AND COLD ADVECTION WITH APPROACHING STRONG THERMAL THROUGH. NARROW AND VERY INTENSE 35+DBZ REFLECTIVITY BAND DEVELOPING FROM JUST SOUTH OF LEW TO RKD AND DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHTNING JUST OFF THE SRN ME COAST SUGGESTS THE PRESENCE OF ELEVATED CAPE OR THE RELEASE OF CSI. THESE FACTORS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO VERY LOCALIZED 1-2"/HR SNOWFALL RATES DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ARCTIC AIR MASS AND LOW SURFACE DEWPOINTS OVER INTERIOR ME SHOULD LIMIT THE HEAVY SNOW AREA TO THE COASTAL COUNTIES BEFORE FORCING SHIFTS OFF THE MID ME COAST BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND SNOW TAPERS OFF. ..BANACOS.. 12/03/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 05-06 UTC... 11-12 UTC...17-18 UTC...AND 23-00 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28 TO ALLOW PARTNERS AND USERS TO BETTER ANTICIPATE THE TIMING OF SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS. ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX... 43137023 43377069 43697079 44027050 44436946 44586860 44496817 43996831 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Dec 4 05:15:29 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 04 Dec 2004 00:15:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412040517.iB45HIE06196@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 040516 SWOMCD SPC MCD 040516 WAZ000-041115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2497 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1116 PM CST FRI DEC 03 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN WA CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION VALID 040516Z - 041115Z HVY SNOW WITH 1-1.5 INCH PER HOUR RATES WILL DEVELOP FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE NRN WA CASCADES FROM 07-12Z. DURATION OF HVY SNOW SHOULD BE FROM 3-4 HOURS AS FORCING ONLY GRADUALLY SHIFTS SWD. FARTHER EAST...MDT SNOW WITH HOURLY RATES AROUND 1/2 INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THOSE AREAS OF NERN WA ABOVE 2000 FT BEGINNING BETWEEN 09-12Z. LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN WHERE SFC SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL EXIST BELOW ELEVATED WARM LAYER. RECENT WV IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPACT UPPER TROUGH CENTERED NEAR 50 N 142 W MOVING SEWD AROUND 40 KTS. STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE NOTED BY COOLING CLOUD TOPS ON IR IMAGERY AHEAD OF ASSOCIATED TROUGH SHOULD BEGIN TO APPROACH THE COAST OF WA BETWEEN 06-08Z. AS THIS MOVES INLAND...INCREASING LOW-MID LEVEL SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT MOISTENING LOW LEVELS AND STRONG OROGRAPHIC ASCENT INTO THE NRN CASCADES MTNS STARTING AFTER 08Z. DIGGING NATURE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SUGGESTS FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL LIKELY ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG VERTICAL MOTION IN THE MID LEVELS FAVORING A DEEP LAYER OF VERTICAL MOTION WHICH WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF HVY SNOWFALL RATES THROUGH 12Z. DESPITE INCREASING WARM ADVECTION...SNOW LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 4000 FT. INCREASING ASCENT FURTHER EAST WILL AID IN LOW-MID LEVEL SATURATION AND DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT-MDT PRECIPITATION BETWEEN 09-12Z DOWNWIND OF THE CASCADES ACROSS NERN WA. ELEVATED LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION ZONE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF SEWD MOVING COLD FRONT. ATOP SHALLOW SUB-FREEZING SFC LAYER...THIS WILL SUPPORT A PTYPE OF FREEZING RAIN OVER THE COLUMBIA RIVER BASIN REGION. HOWEVER THE STRENGTH OF THE WLY WINDS IN THIS 850-700 LAYER AND LEE SIDE SHADOWING WILL ALLOW FOR ONLY GRADUAL SATURATION...LIMITING HOURLY AMOUNTS. IN THE MTNS/FOOTHILLS OF NERN WA...WHERE DEEPER COLD AIR LAYER WILL EXIST SNOW WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT PTYPE. LESS LEE SIDE SHADOW EFFECTS AND INCREASING UPSLOPE FLOW WILL SUPPORT MDT SNOW DEVELOPMENT BY 12Z. ..CROSBIE.. 12/04/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 05-06 UTC... 11-12 UTC...17-18 UTC...AND 23-00 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28 TO ALLOW PARTNERS AND USERS TO BETTER ANTICIPATE THE TIMING OF SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS. ATTN...WFO...OTX...PDT...SEW... 48902238 47962298 47432278 47032201 47052148 47011932 47211788 47641707 48901714 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Dec 5 17:00:16 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 05 Dec 2004 12:00:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412051702.iB5H21E02471@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 051701 SWOMCD SPC MCD 051700 CAZ000-052100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2498 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1100 AM CST SUN DEC 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...MTNS OF FAR SRN CA ABOVE 4500FT CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 051700Z - 052100Z PERIOD OF CONVECTIVE SNOWFALL EXPECTED BETWEEN 05/19Z-06/00Z ABOVE 4500FT IN THE MTNS OF SAN DIEGO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTIES IN SRN CA. SNOWFALL RATES BETWEEN 1-2IN/HR ARE LIKELY...PARTICULARLY IN MTNS OF INTERIOR SAN DIEGO COUNTY. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT STRONG OFFSHORE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG SEWD TOWARD THE SRN CA/NRN BAJA CA COAST THIS MORNING. WELL FORMED LEADING WARM CONVEYOR BELT IS AFFECTING COASTAL POINTS AT 17Z...AND STRONG UPPER TROPOSPHERIC DIFFLUENCE IS EVIDENT IN THE CLOUD FIELD ACROSS THE FAR SRN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. UPPER DIVERGENCE SHOULD PROPAGATE SSEWD ACROSS THE MTNS OF SRN CA LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS SUGGEST 500MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -25C WITH CENTER OF OFFSHORE LOW. FRONTAL PRECIPITATION BAND APPROACHING SAN DIEGO COUNTY HAS AN EWD COMPONENT OF MOTION AROUND 15KT...TAKING LEADING EDGE OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE MTNS OF SAN DIEGO COUNTY AND SRN RIVERSIDE COUNTY BETWEEN 19-20Z. EMBEDDED CONVECTION/LIGHTNING IS ONGOING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES AROUND 7C/KM BETWEEN 700-500MB TRANSLATING INLAND WITH COLD UPPER LOW SHOULD PROMOTE CONVECTIVE SNOWFALL AND ISOLATED THUNDER SNOW OVER MTN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. RUC AND ETA MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM 12Z CYCLE SUGGEST SNOW LEVELS AROUND 4500 FT WITH UVV DIMINISHING AROUND 06/00Z AS BAND OF PVA AND LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION MOVES EAST OF THE REGION. SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS LARGELY PARALLEL TO MTNS OF SAN DIEGO COUNTY SUGGESTING ONLY MODEST OROGRAPHIC AUGMENTATION TO LIFT. HOWEVER...DYNAMICS WITH APPROACHING SYSTEM AND PRESENCE OF STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT 4-5 HOURS OF HEAVY SNOW WITH 1-2 IN/HR SNOWFALL RATES LIKELY IN THE MTNS. ..BANACOS.. 12/05/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 05-06 UTC... 11-12 UTC...17-18 UTC...AND 23-00 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28 TO ALLOW PARTNERS AND USERS TO BETTER ANTICIPATE THE TIMING OF SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS. ATTN...WFO...SGX... 32821630 32661634 32661661 32841672 33131677 33431688 33591688 33681685 33751676 33771663 33701646 33541634 33481635 33431641 33181636 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Dec 6 04:50:45 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 05 Dec 2004 23:50:45 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412060453.iB64r2E12986@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 060452 SWOMCD SPC MCD 060452 MIZ000-061045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2499 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1052 PM CST SUN DEC 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN LOWER MI CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION VALID 060452Z - 061045Z A MIX OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND LIGHT TO MDT SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER WCENTRAL LOWER MI BETWEEN 06-09Z AND OVER CENTRAL-SERN LOWER MI BETWEEN 09-12Z. OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE EWD MOVEMENT AND WEAKENING TREND IN THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. STRONG WAA NOTED IN THE 2-4 KM LAYER OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY/WRN GREAT LAKES VWP AND PROFILER DATA HAS AIDED IN HOURLY PRECIPITATION AMTS FROM 0.2-0.3 INCHES. THIS FORCING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT ENEWD INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DE-AMPLIFY...A WEAKENING TREND IN UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND PRECIPITATION AMTS IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR. 04Z SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES THE 0 DEG C ISOTHERM WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR MKG TO NEAR PTK...WITH THE WBZ LINE LOCATED ABOUT 40 MILES SOUTH OF THIS LINE. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND SATURATING/MELTING EFFECTS SHOULD COUNTER EACH OTHER AND LEAVE LIMITED NWD MOVEMENT OF THE FREEZING LINE WHEN PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT. SHALLOW ELEVATED NOSE OF ABOVE FREEZING AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT NEWD TONIGHT NORTH OF THIS FREEZING LINE. WITH THE ONSET OF STRONGEST MID LEVEL LIFT...LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE JUST NORTH OF THE SFC FREEZING ISOTHERM FROM WCENTRAL INTO SERN LOWER MI...WITH A TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW EXPECTED WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT AS SATURATION AND WET BULB COOLING ENSUES. DESPITE WEAKENING MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...STRONG REMNANT FRONTOGENETIC CIRCULATION WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND MAY LEAD TO ONE OR SEVERAL BANDS OF MODERATE SNOWFALL MOVING EWD ACROSS THE AREA IN THE 09-12Z TIME FRAME. ..CROSBIE.. 12/06/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 05-06 UTC... 11-12 UTC...17-18 UTC...AND 23-00 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28 TO ALLOW PARTNERS AND USERS TO BETTER ANTICIPATE THE TIMING OF SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS. ATTN...WFO...DTX...GRR... 43368247 43638368 43878565 43788646 43378648 43098633 42748534 42508347 42538290 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Dec 6 04:52:11 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 05 Dec 2004 23:52:11 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412060454.iB64sXE13936@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 060453 SWOMCD SPC MCD 060453 MIZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-061100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2500 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1053 PM CST SUN DEC 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL/ERN AZ AND SWRN NM ABOVE 5000 FT CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 060453Z - 061100Z HVY SNOW WITH HOURLY RATES FROM 1-2 INCHES WILL DEVELOP AND SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CNTRL/ERN AZ BETWEEN 05-08Z AND OVER SWRN NM BETWEEN 09-12Z. A 2-3 HOUR PERIOD OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR BEFORE DIMINISHING TRENDS ENSUE FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING AFTER 09Z. LATEST IR IMAGERY INDICATED A COMPACT UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER SAN DIEGO MOVING EWD AROUND 20 KTS. STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF ASSOCIATED JET MAX WAS SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION OVER THE DESERTS OF SERN CA/SWRN AZ. IN ADDITION TO THE WELL PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL LIFT...AS THE UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EWD OVERNIGHT...MODERATE LOW-MID LEVEL SSWLY FLOW EVIDENT BY RECENT PHOENIX/FLAGSTAFF VWP/S WILL INCREASE OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND SATURATION INTO THE S-SW FACING SLOPES OF MTNS IN ERN AZ/SWRN NM OVER THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS. SNOW LEVELS BETWEEN 5500-6000 FT BASED ON THE 00Z TUS SOUNDING AND CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AT PRESCOTT MAY LOWER SLIGHTLY TO AROUND 4500-5000 FT WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF SNOW DEVELOPMENT DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF DYNAMIC LIFT. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM 6.5-7.0 C/KM COMBINED WITH ALREADY FAVORABLE OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL SUPPORT SNOWFALL RATES APPROACHING 2 INCHES/HR IN THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC PRECIPITATION BAND. ..CROSBIE.. 12/06/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 05-06 UTC... 11-12 UTC...17-18 UTC...AND 23-00 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28 TO ALLOW PARTNERS AND USERS TO BETTER ANTICIPATE THE TIMING OF SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS. ATTN...WFO...DTX...GRR...ABQ...EPZ...TWC...FGZ...PSR... 43368247 43638368 43878565 43788646 43378648 43098633 42748534 42508347 42538290 33900962 34431149 34251223 33831252 33021161 32641007 32500873 32860756 33680799 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Dec 6 04:54:46 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 05 Dec 2004 23:54:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412060457.iB64v2E14644@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 060452 SWOMCD SPC MCD 060452 MIZ000-061045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2499 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1052 PM CST SUN DEC 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN LOWER MI CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION VALID 060452Z - 061045Z A MIX OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND LIGHT TO MDT SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER WCENTRAL LOWER MI BETWEEN 06-09Z AND OVER CENTRAL-SERN LOWER MI BETWEEN 09-12Z. OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE EWD MOVEMENT AND WEAKENING TREND IN THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. STRONG WAA NOTED IN THE 2-4 KM LAYER OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY/WRN GREAT LAKES VWP AND PROFILER DATA HAS AIDED IN HOURLY PRECIPITATION AMTS FROM 0.2-0.3 INCHES. THIS FORCING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT ENEWD INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DE-AMPLIFY...A WEAKENING TREND IN UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND PRECIPITATION AMTS IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR. 04Z SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES THE 0 DEG C ISOTHERM WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR MKG TO NEAR PTK...WITH THE WBZ LINE LOCATED ABOUT 40 MILES SOUTH OF THIS LINE. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND SATURATING/MELTING EFFECTS SHOULD COUNTER EACH OTHER AND LEAVE LIMITED NWD MOVEMENT OF THE FREEZING LINE WHEN PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT. SHALLOW ELEVATED NOSE OF ABOVE FREEZING AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT NEWD TONIGHT NORTH OF THIS FREEZING LINE. WITH THE ONSET OF STRONGEST MID LEVEL LIFT...LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE JUST NORTH OF THE SFC FREEZING ISOTHERM FROM WCENTRAL INTO SERN LOWER MI...WITH A TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW EXPECTED WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT AS SATURATION AND WET BULB COOLING ENSUES. DESPITE WEAKENING MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...STRONG REMNANT FRONTOGENETIC CIRCULATION WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND MAY LEAD TO ONE OR SEVERAL BANDS OF MODERATE SNOWFALL MOVING EWD ACROSS THE AREA IN THE 09-12Z TIME FRAME. ..CROSBIE.. 12/06/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 05-06 UTC... 11-12 UTC...17-18 UTC...AND 23-00 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28 TO ALLOW PARTNERS AND USERS TO BETTER ANTICIPATE THE TIMING OF SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS. ATTN...WFO...DTX...GRR... 43368247 43638368 43878565 43788646 43378648 43098633 42748534 42508347 42538290  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Dec 6 04:55:09 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 05 Dec 2004 23:55:09 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412060457.iB64vQE14748@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 060453 SWOMCD SPC MCD 060453 MIZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-061100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2500 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1053 PM CST SUN DEC 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL/ERN AZ AND SWRN NM ABOVE 5000 FT CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 060453Z - 061100Z HVY SNOW WITH HOURLY RATES FROM 1-2 INCHES WILL DEVELOP AND SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CNTRL/ERN AZ BETWEEN 05-08Z AND OVER SWRN NM BETWEEN 09-12Z. A 2-3 HOUR PERIOD OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR BEFORE DIMINISHING TRENDS ENSUE FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING AFTER 09Z. LATEST IR IMAGERY INDICATED A COMPACT UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER SAN DIEGO MOVING EWD AROUND 20 KTS. STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF ASSOCIATED JET MAX WAS SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION OVER THE DESERTS OF SERN CA/SWRN AZ. IN ADDITION TO THE WELL PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL LIFT...AS THE UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EWD OVERNIGHT...MODERATE LOW-MID LEVEL SSWLY FLOW EVIDENT BY RECENT PHOENIX/FLAGSTAFF VWP/S WILL INCREASE OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND SATURATION INTO THE S-SW FACING SLOPES OF MTNS IN ERN AZ/SWRN NM OVER THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS. SNOW LEVELS BETWEEN 5500-6000 FT BASED ON THE 00Z TUS SOUNDING AND CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AT PRESCOTT MAY LOWER SLIGHTLY TO AROUND 4500-5000 FT WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF SNOW DEVELOPMENT DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF DYNAMIC LIFT. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM 6.5-7.0 C/KM COMBINED WITH ALREADY FAVORABLE OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL SUPPORT SNOWFALL RATES APPROACHING 2 INCHES/HR IN THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC PRECIPITATION BAND. ..CROSBIE.. 12/06/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 05-06 UTC... 11-12 UTC...17-18 UTC...AND 23-00 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28 TO ALLOW PARTNERS AND USERS TO BETTER ANTICIPATE THE TIMING OF SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS. ATTN...WFO...DTX...GRR...ABQ...EPZ...TWC...FGZ...PSR... 43368247 43638368 43878565 43788646 43378648 43098633 42748534 42508347 42538290 33900962 34431149 34251223 33831252 33021161 32641007 32500873 32860756 33680799  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Dec 6 04:56:18 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 05 Dec 2004 23:56:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412060458.iB64wcE15447@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 060458 SWOMCD SPC MCD 060457 COR NMZ000-AZZ000-061100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2500 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1057 PM CST SUN DEC 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL/ERN AZ AND SWRN NM ABOVE 5000 FT CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 060457Z - 061100Z CORRECTED FOR MCD GRAPHIC AREA HVY SNOW WITH HOURLY RATES FROM 1-2 INCHES WILL DEVELOP AND SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CNTRL/ERN AZ BETWEEN 05-08Z AND OVER SWRN NM BETWEEN 09-12Z. A 2-3 HOUR PERIOD OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR BEFORE DIMINISHING TRENDS ENSUE FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING AFTER 09Z. LATEST IR IMAGERY INDICATED A COMPACT UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER SAN DIEGO MOVING EWD AROUND 20 KTS. STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF ASSOCIATED JET MAX WAS SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION OVER THE DESERTS OF SERN CA/SWRN AZ. IN ADDITION TO THE WELL PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL LIFT...AS THE UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EWD OVERNIGHT...MODERATE LOW-MID LEVEL SSWLY FLOW EVIDENT BY RECENT PHOENIX/FLAGSTAFF VWP/S WILL INCREASE OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND SATURATION INTO THE S-SW FACING SLOPES OF MTNS IN ERN AZ/SWRN NM OVER THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS. SNOW LEVELS BETWEEN 5500-6000 FT BASED ON THE 00Z TUS SOUNDING AND CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AT PRESCOTT MAY LOWER SLIGHTLY TO AROUND 4500-5000 FT WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF SNOW DEVELOPMENT DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF DYNAMIC LIFT. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM 6.5-7.0 C/KM COMBINED WITH ALREADY FAVORABLE OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL SUPPORT SNOWFALL RATES APPROACHING 2 INCHES/HR IN THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC PRECIPITATION BAND. ..CROSBIE.. 12/06/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 05-06 UTC... 11-12 UTC...17-18 UTC...AND 23-00 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28 TO ALLOW PARTNERS AND USERS TO BETTER ANTICIPATE THE TIMING OF SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS. ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...TWC...FGZ...PSR... 33900962 34431149 34251223 33831252 33021161 32641007 32500873 32860756 33680799 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Dec 6 11:47:21 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 06 Dec 2004 06:47:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412061149.iB6BnbE21924@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 061149 SWOMCD SPC MCD 061148 NYZ000-PAZ000-061745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2501 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0548 AM CST MON DEC 06 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN /CENTRAL NY AND NCENTRAL PA CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION VALID 061148Z - 061745Z MODERATE SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN/CENTRAL NY THROUGH 18Z...WITH A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET THE PREDOMINANT PTYPES ACROSS NCENTRAL PA. SNOW SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING RAIN/SLEET NWD INTO SCENTRAL/SWRN NY AND PORTIONS OF NERN PA BETWEEN 15-18Z. HOURLY ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 0.03-0.05 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT IS ANTICIPATED TO BE COMMON ACROSS THE AREA FOR AT LEAST A 2-4 HR PERIOD. REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT LIGHT PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO SPREAD RAPIDLY ENEWD ACROSS ERN MI AND NERN OH. 11Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SFC FREEZING LINE EXTENDING ACROSS FAR SWRN NY SEWD TO NEAR STATE COLLEGE...WITH THE WET BULB FREEZING LINE ABOUT 50 MILES SOUTH OF THIS AXIS. A COMBINATION OF MODERATE WARM ADVECTION IN THE 1-3 KM LAYER EVIDENT BY REGIONAL VWP/S OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND EWD MOVEMENT OF THE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS FORCING OVER CENTRAL/ERN MI WILL SUPPORT NEWD DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. MODERATE SNOWFALL ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTOGENETICALLY FORCED BANDS IN THE 600-700 MB LAYER OVER CENTRAL MI WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO WRN NY BETWEEN 12-15Z. FARTHER SOUTH...WHERE LOW LEVEL WAA WILL BE THE DOMINANT FORCING MECHANISM...0-0.5 KM ENELY FLOW AND NUMEROUS NARROW VALLEY/S IN THE REGION WILL SUPPORT COLD AIR BEING LOCKED IN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN AND/OR SLEET AS ELEVATED WARM LAYER OVERSPREADS THE AREA THROUGH THE MID-MORNING. THIS LOW LEVEL COLD DRAINAGE SHOULD ALSO LIMIT THE NWD MOVEMENT OF THE FREEZING LINE THROUGH THE MORNING. AS THE ELEVATED WARM LAYER GRADUALLY SHIFTS NWD THROUGH DURING THE MID-LATE MORNING...SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF SWRN/SCENTRAL NY AND NERN PA SHOULD THEN GRADUALLY BECOME MIXED WITH SLEET AND POSSIBLY FREEZING RAIN BY 18Z. ..CROSBIE.. 12/06/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 05-06 UTC... 11-12 UTC...17-18 UTC...AND 23-00 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28 TO ALLOW PARTNERS AND USERS TO BETTER ANTICIPATE THE TIMING OF SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS. ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ... 43317774 43217842 42397900 41787919 41297886 41157810 41077623 41507553 42137529 42757546 43337592 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Dec 6 16:34:06 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 06 Dec 2004 11:34:06 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412061636.iB6GaLE30267@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 061635 SWOMCD SPC MCD 061635 TXZ000-061830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2502 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1035 AM CST MON DEC 06 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...W AND NCNTRL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 061635Z - 061830Z DEVELOPING CONVECTION WEST OF MIDLAND WILL CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE AND A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT MAY MATERIALIZE ACROSS PARTS OF WEST AND NCNTRL TX LATE THIS MORNING. HAIL SHOULD BE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT BUT STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ALONG A DRYLINE IN WEST TEXAS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND FOCUSED LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WITH THE FAST MOVING TROUGH WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS W TX OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. THIS WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPING CONVECTION AS IT TRACKS EWD INTO THE LOW-ROLLING PLAINS. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE ADVECTION DUE TO THE LOW-LEVEL JET. THIS COMBINED WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 80 KT AND STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS. MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS LOW-LEVELS MOISTEN ESPECIALLY DUE TO THE FAST FORWARD CELL MOTION. HOWEVER...THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED DUE TO A STRONG INVERSION LAYER BELOW 850 MB SHOWING UP ON THE 12Z SOUNDINGS. ..BROYLES.. 12/06/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF... 31120044 30970130 31390200 32060199 32790140 33180089 33370036 33539986 33419935 32749889 31879937 31489994 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Dec 6 18:19:03 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 06 Dec 2004 13:19:03 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412061821.iB6ILIE24359@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 061820 SWOMCD SPC MCD 061820 OKZ000-TXZ000-062015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2503 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1220 PM CST MON DEC 06 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NCNTRL TX/SW OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 061820Z - 062015Z A LINE OF CONVECTION FROM CHILDRESS SWD TO SNYDER SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS NCNTRL TX AND SW OK EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE HAIL WITH MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE POSSIBLE. A WW MAY BE NEEDED SOON. A FAST MOVING VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH WEST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL ASCENT AHEAD OF THE WAVE COMBINED WITH VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS THE NOSE OF THE MID-LEVEL JET ENTERING NCNTRL TX. THIS IS ENHANCING UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE WHICH WILL SUPPORT THE LINE AS IT TRACKS QUICKLY EWD INTO NCNTRL TX AND SW OK. AS THE LINE MOVES EAST...WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR HAIL. IN ADDITION...INCREASING SFC DEWPOINTS AND STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL MAKE MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE POSSIBLE. THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE WILL BE THE WEAK INSTABILITY IN PLACE. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE SEVERE WEATHER COVERAGE FAIRLY ISOLATED ACROSS THE REGION. ..BROYLES.. 12/06/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA... 34809739 33799726 33089782 32959906 33450024 34410027 35129977 35329898 35169802 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Dec 6 19:29:52 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 06 Dec 2004 14:29:52 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412061932.iB6JW7E01575@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 061931 SWOMCD SPC MCD 061930 TXZ000-062100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2504 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0130 PM CST MON DEC 06 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND NORTH TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 909... VALID 061930Z - 062100Z STRONG CONVECTIVE LINE FROM VERNON TX SWD TO NEAR SJT WILL CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE AS IT MOVES EWD ACROSS NORTH AND CNTRL TX THIS AFTERNOON. A WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED EAST OF WW 909 AND S0UTH OF WW 910 SOON. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW-LEVEL MOIST AXIS EXTENDING NWD ACROSS THE TX HILL COUNTRY TO SOUTH OF THE WICHITA FALLS AREA. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THIS AXIS ARE NEAR 60 F. AS THE LINE MOVES EWD INTO THE BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...THE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL RESULT IN A SEVERE THREAT WITH THE STRONGER CELLS WITHIN THE LINE. THINNING UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS EVIDENT ON VIS IMAGERY AHEAD OF THE LINE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SFC TEMPS WARM AND MLCAPE VALUES SHOULD REACH 500 TO 750 J/KG ALONG THE MOIST AXIS. THIS COMBINED WITH A FAST CELL MOTION OF 40-45 KT SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR WIND DAMAGE. IN ADDITION...STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 9,000 FEET SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. ..BROYLES.. 12/06/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT... 31149929 31579968 32779945 33289905 33399708 32599694 31709720 31239766 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Dec 6 22:57:08 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 06 Dec 2004 17:57:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412062259.iB6MxME19741@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 062258 SWOMCD SPC MCD 062258 TXZ000-OKZ000-ARZ000-070030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2505 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0458 PM CST MON DEC 06 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/N-CENTRAL/NE TX...SERN OK...EXTREME SWRN AR. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 910...911... VALID 062258Z - 070030Z NEW WW WILL BE REQUIRED OVER PORTIONS NE TX AND POSSIBLY SW OK IN NEXT 1-2 HOURS...E OF PRESENT WWS. MOST INTENSE PORTION OF EXTENSIVE SQUALL LINE IS MOVING ENEWD 40-45 KT...WITH EMBEDDED BOW ECHO EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING ACROSS SRN PORTIONS DFW METROPLEX. MEASURED GUSTS 40-50 KT AND HIGHER SPOTTER ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN RECEIVED DURING PAST COUPLE HOURS WITH THIS SEGMENT OF CONVECTION. EXPECT POTENTIAL TO PERSIST FOR DOWNDRAFTS TO PENETRATE SHALLOW NEAR-SFC STABLE LAYER AND CAUSE OCCASIONAL DAMAGE. SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE SOMEWHAT LOWER IN ASSOCIATION WITH NRN PART OF THIS LINE -- OVER WW 910 AND LARGELY N OF RED RIVER...BUT SOME PART OF THIS AREA MAY NEED TO BE INCLUDED IN A NEW WW AS WELL. THIS CONVECTION WILL BE MOVING INTO A REGION OF LOWER ELEVATED MUCAPE AND DEEPER STABLE LAYER NEAR SFC. FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE OVER FOREGOING WARM SECTOR AS UPPER TROUGH NOW OVER W TX MOVES ENEWD TOWARD N TX AND MAIN BODY OF OK. VWP/PROFILERS CONSISTENTLY INDICATE 60-70 KT 500 MB FLOW OVER THIS AREA...CONTRIBUTING TO 70-75 KT 0-6 KM AGL SHEAR. LOW LEVEL WAA IS CONTRIBUTING TO A GREAT RANGE OF ELEVATED MUCAPE -- FROM AROUND 2000 J/KG INVOF SRN EDGE OF WW 911...TO LESS THAN 500 J/KG FROM MLC EWD INTO SWRN AR. ..BASED ON ADJUSTED RUC SOUNDINGS. ..EDWARDS.. 12/06/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...TSA...LZK...SHV...HGX... 31619596 31609935 33779906 33779559 33779603 33309972 35209976 35669603 35369602 35379519 35169397 34829384 34069390 33189405 31589459 31569599 33789558 33789602 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Dec 6 22:59:49 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 06 Dec 2004 17:59:49 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412062302.iB6N23E20743@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 062301 SWOMCD SPC MCD 062301 CAZ000-070300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2506 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0501 PM CST MON DEC 06 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...THE MOUNTAINS OF NRN CA ABOVE 3500FT CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 062301Z - 070300Z HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SHASTA/SISKIYOUS REGION AND SPREAD ESEWD INTO THE NRN SIERRA MTNS THROUGH 07/06Z. SNOW LEVELS EXPECTED AROUND 3500 FT NEAR MT SHASTA AND AROUND 4000 FT IN THE NRN SIERRA MTNS. SNOWFALL RATES UP TO 2"/HR PER HOUR POSSIBLE... PARTICULARLY SWD/SWWD FACING SLOPES WITH OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT. VORT MAX EMBEDDED IN STRONG ZONAL FLOW SOUTH OF STATIONARY UPPER LOW OFF WA COAST WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS RAPIDLY EWD REACHING THE NRN CA COAST BY 07/06Z. PRECIPITATION HAS ALREADY SPREAD EWD INTO THE COASTAL RANGES AND MT SHASTA REGION ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION INFERRED FROM RECENT EUREKA VAD WIND PROFILES. HVY SNOW COMMENCED AT MT. SHASTA ASOS /MHS/ AT 20Z. VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS...WITH SWLY 1KM FLOW AROUND 60KT...SHOULD FAVOR STRONG OROGRAPHIC LIFT ALONG SOUTH/SW FACING SLOPES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. COOLING CLOUD TOPS IN IR IMAGERY JUST IN ADVANCE OF VORT MAX 125 NM WEST OF EKA SUGGEST STRONGEST LARGE-SCALE SUPPORT FOR ASCENT SHOULD ARRIVE IN NRN COASTAL RANGES AND MT SHASTA AREA BETWEEN 01-04Z...WHEN 2"/HR RATES ARE MOST LIKELY. HEAVY SNOW WILL SPREAD EWD INTO THE NRN SIERRA MTNS BETWEEN 03-06Z. SOME MINOR FLUCTUATION IN FREEZING LEVELS ARE SUGGESTED BY HOURLY ETA THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES THROUGH 06Z...HOWEVER SNOW LEVELS SHOULD HOLD BETWEEN 3500-4000FT ACROSS MOST OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...WITH LOWER LEVELS FAVORED ACROSS NRN MOST SECTIONS OF DISCUSSION AREA. ..BANACOS.. 12/06/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 05-06 UTC... 11-12 UTC...17-18 UTC...AND 23-00 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28 TO ALLOW PARTNERS AND USERS TO BETTER ANTICIPATE THE TIMING OF SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS. ATTN...WFO...REV...MFR...STO...EKA... 40372282 40132271 39712263 39492266 39452276 39592297 39982327 40252338 40662346 41612355 41742302 41762213 41742181 41632155 41442134 40872100 40282067 39682034 38992004 38932054 39162080 39492106 40222162 40662173 41012184 41122205 41112231 40812269 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Dec 6 22:59:58 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 06 Dec 2004 17:59:58 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412062302.iB6N2CE20784@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 062258 SWOMCD SPC MCD 062258 TXZ000-OKZ000-ARZ000-070030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2505 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0458 PM CST MON DEC 06 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/N-CENTRAL/NE TX...SERN OK...EXTREME SWRN AR. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 910...911... VALID 062258Z - 070030Z NEW WW WILL BE REQUIRED OVER PORTIONS NE TX AND POSSIBLY SW OK IN NEXT 1-2 HOURS...E OF PRESENT WWS. MOST INTENSE PORTION OF EXTENSIVE SQUALL LINE IS MOVING ENEWD 40-45 KT...WITH EMBEDDED BOW ECHO EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING ACROSS SRN PORTIONS DFW METROPLEX. MEASURED GUSTS 40-50 KT AND HIGHER SPOTTER ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN RECEIVED DURING PAST COUPLE HOURS WITH THIS SEGMENT OF CONVECTION. EXPECT POTENTIAL TO PERSIST FOR DOWNDRAFTS TO PENETRATE SHALLOW NEAR-SFC STABLE LAYER AND CAUSE OCCASIONAL DAMAGE. SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE SOMEWHAT LOWER IN ASSOCIATION WITH NRN PART OF THIS LINE -- OVER WW 910 AND LARGELY N OF RED RIVER...BUT SOME PART OF THIS AREA MAY NEED TO BE INCLUDED IN A NEW WW AS WELL. THIS CONVECTION WILL BE MOVING INTO A REGION OF LOWER ELEVATED MUCAPE AND DEEPER STABLE LAYER NEAR SFC. FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE OVER FOREGOING WARM SECTOR AS UPPER TROUGH NOW OVER W TX MOVES ENEWD TOWARD N TX AND MAIN BODY OF OK. VWP/PROFILERS CONSISTENTLY INDICATE 60-70 KT 500 MB FLOW OVER THIS AREA...CONTRIBUTING TO 70-75 KT 0-6 KM AGL SHEAR. LOW LEVEL WAA IS CONTRIBUTING TO A GREAT RANGE OF ELEVATED MUCAPE -- FROM AROUND 2000 J/KG INVOF SRN EDGE OF WW 911...TO LESS THAN 500 J/KG FROM MLC EWD INTO SWRN AR. ..BASED ON ADJUSTED RUC SOUNDINGS. ..EDWARDS.. 12/06/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...TSA...LZK...SHV...HGX... 31619596 31609935 33779906 33779559 33779603 33309972 35209976 35669603 35369602 35379519 35169397 34829384 34069390 33189405 31589459 31569599 33789558 33789602  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Dec 6 23:01:58 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 06 Dec 2004 18:01:58 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412062304.iB6N4CE21634@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 062301 SWOMCD SPC MCD 062301 CAZ000-070300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2506 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0501 PM CST MON DEC 06 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...THE MOUNTAINS OF NRN CA ABOVE 3500FT CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 062301Z - 070300Z HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SHASTA/SISKIYOUS REGION AND SPREAD ESEWD INTO THE NRN SIERRA MTNS THROUGH 07/06Z. SNOW LEVELS EXPECTED AROUND 3500 FT NEAR MT SHASTA AND AROUND 4000 FT IN THE NRN SIERRA MTNS. SNOWFALL RATES UP TO 2"/HR PER HOUR POSSIBLE... PARTICULARLY SWD/SWWD FACING SLOPES WITH OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT. VORT MAX EMBEDDED IN STRONG ZONAL FLOW SOUTH OF STATIONARY UPPER LOW OFF WA COAST WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS RAPIDLY EWD REACHING THE NRN CA COAST BY 07/06Z. PRECIPITATION HAS ALREADY SPREAD EWD INTO THE COASTAL RANGES AND MT SHASTA REGION ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION INFERRED FROM RECENT EUREKA VAD WIND PROFILES. HVY SNOW COMMENCED AT MT. SHASTA ASOS /MHS/ AT 20Z. VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS...WITH SWLY 1KM FLOW AROUND 60KT...SHOULD FAVOR STRONG OROGRAPHIC LIFT ALONG SOUTH/SW FACING SLOPES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. COOLING CLOUD TOPS IN IR IMAGERY JUST IN ADVANCE OF VORT MAX 125 NM WEST OF EKA SUGGEST STRONGEST LARGE-SCALE SUPPORT FOR ASCENT SHOULD ARRIVE IN NRN COASTAL RANGES AND MT SHASTA AREA BETWEEN 01-04Z...WHEN 2"/HR RATES ARE MOST LIKELY. HEAVY SNOW WILL SPREAD EWD INTO THE NRN SIERRA MTNS BETWEEN 03-06Z. SOME MINOR FLUCTUATION IN FREEZING LEVELS ARE SUGGESTED BY HOURLY ETA THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES THROUGH 06Z...HOWEVER SNOW LEVELS SHOULD HOLD BETWEEN 3500-4000FT ACROSS MOST OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...WITH LOWER LEVELS FAVORED ACROSS NRN MOST SECTIONS OF DISCUSSION AREA. ..BANACOS.. 12/06/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 05-06 UTC... 11-12 UTC...17-18 UTC...AND 23-00 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28 TO ALLOW PARTNERS AND USERS TO BETTER ANTICIPATE THE TIMING OF SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS. ATTN...WFO...REV...MFR...STO...EKA... 40372282 40132271 39712263 39492266 39452276 39592297 39982327 40252338 40662346 41612355 41742302 41762213 41742181 41632155 41442134 40872100 40282067 39682034 38992004 38932054 39162080 39492106 40222162 40662173 41012184 41122205 41112231 40812269  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Dec 8 06:56:35 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 08 Dec 2004 01:56:35 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412080658.iB86wrE00831@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 080658 SWOMCD SPC MCD 080657 NVZ000-CAZ000-081300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2519 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1257 AM CST WED DEC 08 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN CA CASCADES CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 080657Z - 081300Z ...SNOW RATES WILL BE AT LEAST 2"/HOUR ABOVE 4000 FEET ACROSS THE SISKIYOU/SHASTA MTNS OF NRN CA... STRONG UPPER STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY OFF WEST COAST WILL PROVIDE ABUNDANT LARGE SCALE LIFT ACROSS NRN CA OVERNIGHT...WITH HEAVY SNOWFALL LIKELY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. UPPER VERTICAL MOTION WILL BE ENHANCED BOTH BY JET DYNAMICS AND STRONG WAA PATTERN EVIDENT IN LATEST VAD WIND PROFILES. RECENT OBSERVATION AT BLUE RIVER OF 3 INCHES OF SNOW IN 1 HOUR SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES OVERNIGHT. THERMODYNAMICS PROFILES/FORECAST 700MB TEMPS INDICATE SNOW LEVELS MAINLY ABOVE 4000 FEET WITH RAIN IN THE VALLEYS. IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT OF HEAVY SNOW...A 40-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL CREATE WINDY CONDITIONS/BLOWING SNOW AT THE SURFACE. ..TAYLOR.. 12/08/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28 TO ALLOW PARTNERS AND USERS TO BETTER ANTICIPATE THE TIMING OF SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS. ATTN...WFO...REV...MFR...STO... 38752019 39322143 41302229 41732218 41732174 40822149 39842075 38871988 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Dec 8 13:03:31 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 08 Dec 2004 08:03:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412081305.iB8D5mE04681@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 081305 SWOMCD SPC MCD 081305 IDZ000-ORZ000-081900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2520 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0705 AM CST WED DEC 08 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...W CNTRL/BOISE MTNS OF ID CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 081305Z - 081900Z ...PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING INTO AFTN ACROSS THE W CNTRL MTNS OF ID THROUGH THE CAMAS REGION MAINLY ABOVE 5000 FEET... LATEST WV IMAGERY SUGGESTS NOSE OF MID LEVEL JET HAS ADVANCED TO THE BLUE/WALLOWA MTNS OF NE ORE...WITH 60 KT WLY FLOW BEING SAMPLED JUST ABOVE 500 MB AT BOISE...AND OVER 100 KT OBSERVED WITHIN THE PAST TWO HOURS AT MEDFORD...WHICH HAS INCREASED FROM 60 KT AT 06Z. IN ADDITION...VERY STRONG SLY LOW LEVEL JET IS FOCUSING MOISTURE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN W CNTRL ID. THE STRONGEST DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET WILL SPREAD FROM ERN ORE/WA INTO THE SRN TWO-THIRDS OF ID THROUGH 18Z. LATEST SNOW LEVELS ARE ABOVE 5000 FEET PER 12Z BOI SOUNDING/CURRENT SFC OBSERVATIONS. AS MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WLY...INCREASING OROGRAPHIC ASCENT. STRONG WAA PATTERN WILL FAVOR INCREASING SNOW LEVELS...ESPECIALLY AFTER 18Z. HOWEVER...FAVORED DENDRITIC GROWTH REGION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE WCNTRL MTNS OF ID THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 2"/HR ABOVE 5000 FEET. ..TAYLOR.. 12/08/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28 TO ALLOW PARTNERS AND USERS TO BETTER ANTICIPATE THE TIMING OF SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS. ATTN...WFO...PIH...MSO...BOI...PDT... 43211352 43111501 44111624 44491724 44981746 45341719 45411647 45061534 43731345 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Dec 8 23:46:27 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 08 Dec 2004 18:46:27 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412082348.iB8NmhE01408@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 082348 SWOMCD SPC MCD 082347 LAZ000-TXZ000-090115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2521 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0547 PM CST WED DEC 08 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...UPPER TX COAST INTO SWRN LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 082347Z - 090115Z ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA THIS EVENING. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE OUTLOOK UPGRADE AND WW ISSUANCE. 23Z MESOANALYSIS INDICATES PRIMARY WARM FRONT ACROSS THE NWRN GULF FROM NEAR BRO NEWD TO APPROXIMATELY 30-40 NM OFF GALVESTON BAY TO JUST OFF THE SERN LA COAST. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S COUPLED WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 7 C/KM ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG S OF THIS BOUNDARY OVER THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO. WITH APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS WRN TX...EXPECT THIS BOUNDARY TO LIFT NWD...ALLOWING FOR THIS SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP ALONG THE UPPER TX COAST INTO SWRN LA. FORECAST HODOGRAPHS SUGGEST THAT WIND FIELDS ALONG COAST WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED TSTMS...INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY SUPERCELLS. DAMAGING WINDS AND A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SURFACE-BASED STORMS...WHILE ELEVATED DEVELOPMENT N OF BOUNDARY WILL BE CAPABLE OF MAINLY MARGINAL HAIL. ..MEAD.. 12/08/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX... 28969622 29869560 30519432 30639311 30599228 30039198 29569225 29459386 28689569 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Dec 9 10:21:20 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 09 Dec 2004 05:21:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412091023.iB9ANZ915154@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 091022 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091022 ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-091145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2522 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0422 AM CST THU DEC 09 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MS...SWRN AL...EXTREME WRN FL PNHDL AND EXTREME ERN LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 091022Z - 091145Z TSTMS HAVE BECOME MORE ORGANIZED FROM CNTRL MS SWD INTO ERN LA SINCE 09Z. A BOW ECHO HAS FORMED OVER SMITH COUNTY MS AND IS MOVING ENEWD AROUND 40 KTS. MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT THIS STORM IS RIDING ALONG AN E-W WARM FRONT AND THERE IS EVIDENCE THAT A SUB-SYNOPTIC LOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM. EXTRAPOLATION HAS THE STORM VCNTY KMEI BY 1045Z AND INTO WRN AL AFTER 1115Z. A TORNADO WATCH MAY BECOME NECESSARY IN THE NEXT HOUR ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL AL. VWP TIME SERIES FROM SLIDELL AND BRANDON SHOW THAT THE FLOW IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS IS BEGINNING TO BECOME MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL...THUS THE PROPENSITY FOR TSTMS TO BOW. IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE WITHIN A BROADER BAND OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...THEN MOVE EWD INTO CNTRL/SWRN AL AND THE WRN FL PNHDL. DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS HAS DESTABILIZED AND IT IS REASONABLE TO ASSUME THAT STORMS WILL BE NEARLY SURFACE BASED AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. IF THE SUB-SYNOPTIC LOW INTENSIFIES...LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS APT TO BE STRONGER INTO PARTS OF CNTRL AL AND TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE A THREAT. HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY OCCUR ENEWD FROM CNTRL MS INTO CNTRL AL WHERE THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID-MORNING. FARTHER S... TENDENCIES FOR THE SHEAR TO DECREASE WILL LIKELY KEEP THE SEVERE THREATS MARGINAL OR ISOLD. ..RACY.. 12/09/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX... 32508930 32908643 30558701 29038870 29389005 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Dec 9 12:03:20 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 09 Dec 2004 07:03:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412091205.iB9C5Z913261@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 091205 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091204 ALZ000-MSZ000-091330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2523 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0604 AM CST THU DEC 09 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MS AND CNTRL AL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 916... VALID 091204Z - 091330Z RADAR MOSAIC AND MESOANALYSIS DEPICT THE SUB-SYNOPTIC LOW ON THE AL/MS BORDER 30NE OF KMEI. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE THROUGH CNTRL AL AND NEAR/NW OF KBHM 14-15Z. TSTMS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE LOW ACROSS WRN AL. THESE CELLS...ALONG WITH THE TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW...WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST TORNADIC POTENTIAL AS THEY MOVE 240/40. THAT STORM MOTION ON THE INCREASINGLY SHEARED HODOGRAPH AT KBHM GIVES A SRH AOA 325 MS/S2. THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR MAY INCREASE SOMEWHAT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE LOW MIGRATES NEWD ALONG THE WARM FRONT INTO CNTRL AL. OTHERWISE... DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE A THREAT...ESPECIALLY AS CELLS MATURE AND POTENTIALLY BOW. MEANWHILE...TSTMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING ALONG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE BROAD ZONE OF CONVECTION ACROSS CNTRL/SRN MS WHERE RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW MUCAPE LINGERING IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE. THESE STORMS MAY CAUSE GUSTY WINDS OR PERHAPS HAIL...BUT THE FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN APPEARS TO BE DISRUPTED BY RECENT CONVECTION AND THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED. BUT...ORIENTATION OF THE TSTMS WITH RESPECT TO THE WSWLY SHEAR VECTORS THROUGH 6KM DOES SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR VERY HEAVY/TRAINING RAINFALL FROM AMITE COUNTY NEWD TO SIMPSON/SMITH COUNTIES IN MS. THE UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW ALSO WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SPLITTING CELLS WITH LEFT MOVING MEMBERS MOVING NWD INTO AREAS S/SE OF KJAN. ..RACY.. 12/09/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX... 31558902 33188910 33638626 31898629 31259091 32348989 32438916 31438920 31049030 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Dec 9 13:45:29 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 09 Dec 2004 08:45:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412091347.iB9Dlh917781@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 091347 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091346 ALZ000-091515- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2524 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0746 AM CST THU DEC 09 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MS AND AL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 916... VALID 091346Z - 091515Z RECENT STORM RELATIVE MOTION PRODUCTS CONTINUE TO SHOW SPORADIC LOW LEVEL CIRCULATIONS ASSOCIATED WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS... PRIMARILY NEAR AND SOUTH OF A SUB-SYNOPTIC LOW OVER NCNTRL AL. WARM SECTOR HAS SPREAD NWD TO THE LOW LEVEL COLD WEDGE ENTRENCHED ACROSS NERN AL AND NWRN GA. LOW LEVEL SHEAR REMAINS THE STRONGEST MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF A KBHM-SELMA LINE AND THE KBHM VWP SUGGESTS A 302 M2/S2 0-1KM SRH USING A STORM MOTION OF 240/40. TO THE WEST OF THIS LINE...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS VEERED CONSIDERABLY. THUS...THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR ISOLD TORNADOES HAS SHIFTED EWD INTO ERN PARTS OF THE WW. MAIN BRANCH OF THE LLJ IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE NWD INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE MORNING AS UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH EJECTS NEWD. THE RESULT WILL BE A RELAXING OF THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR WITH TIME AND THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH WATCH EXPIRATION. EVENTUALLY...THE BROAD BAND OF TSTMS WILL BEGIN TO OUTRUN THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY AXIS THIS MORNING. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH THE TRANSLATION OF STRONGER WIND FIELDS NWD ATOP THE COLDER AIR WILL LIKELY SIGNAL A DECREASE IN THE SEVERE PROBABILITIES WITH TIME. ..RACY.. 12/09/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB... 31598838 32438836 33868610 31878628 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Dec 9 16:26:44 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 09 Dec 2004 11:26:44 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412091628.iB9GSw930729@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 091625 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091624 GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-091830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2525 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1024 AM CST THU DEC 09 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...FL PNHDL...SE AL...SW GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 091624Z - 091830Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND POSSIBILITY OF WW. AS INITIAL IMPULSE LIFTS FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARD THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...STRONGER LOW-LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO LIFT INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AREA LATE THIS MORNING. HOWEVER... JET AXIS TRAILS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF COAST...AND CONFLUENT BAND NEAR THIS AXIS HAS BECOME FOCUS FOR STRENGTHENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE PAST HOUR OR SO. CELLS HAVE BEEN INCREASING WEST OF PENSACOLA FL INTO THE DOTHAN/OZARK AL AREA...ON WESTERN PERIPHERY OF SURFACE RIDGE...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO RETREAT AND BEGIN TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. AS THIS OCCURS...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE...WITH SHEAR PROFILES STILL SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS IN ENVIRONMENT WITH MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE LIKELY TO INCREASE IN EXCESS OF 500 J/KG. AN ISOLATED TORNADO APPEARS POSSIBLE NEAR/NORTH OF PANAMA CITY INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST ALABAMA/SOUTHWEST GEORGIA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...A FEW STORMS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG GUSTY WINDS. ..KERR.. 12/09/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX... 30278599 31028601 31718585 32288524 32818474 32418424 31728411 31198423 30588439 29978521 29428573 28898650 29798612  From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 10 00:14:03 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 09 Dec 2004 19:14:03 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412100016.iBA0GF910316@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 100015 SWOMCD SPC MCD 100015 SCZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-100145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2526 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0615 PM CST THU DEC 09 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL AL EWD INTO UPSTATE SC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 100015Z - 100145Z THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE COURSE OF THE EVENING. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY AND LDS DATA INDICATE AN INCREASE IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT FROM PORTIONS OF CNTRL/E-CNTRL AL EWD TO NEAR ATL AREA. 00Z BHM/FFC SOUNDINGS AND RUC ANALYSIS FIELDS SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING WITHIN A WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT WHERE MLCAPES REMAIN AROUND 500-1000 J/KG. THE WRN MOST TSTM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED ERN EDGE OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH MS. MEANWHILE...LOCAL VWPS SUGGEST THAT ACTIVITY OVER GA IS LIKELY BEING FORCED BY LOW-LEVEL WAA ACTING ON THE WEAKLY CAPPED AIR MASS. AS AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE EWD TONIGHT...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FROM PORTIONS OF E-CNTRL AL EWD INTO UPSTATE SC. STRONG SPEED SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH 60-7O KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK TRANSLATING ACROSS REGION WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO. FORECAST STORM MOTIONS SUGGEST THAT DEVELOPMENT INVOF OF WARM FRONT FROM NRN GA INTO N-CNTRL SC WILL QUICKLY BECOME ELEVATED ABOVE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. HOWEVER...ANY DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING FARTHER S IN WARM SECTOR WILL HAVE A GREATER POTENTIAL OF REMAINING SURFACE-BASED. ..MEAD.. 12/10/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC...BMX... 33308556 33828524 34148297 34188162 33988117 33338103 32848221 32688433 32628525 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 10 03:47:23 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 09 Dec 2004 22:47:23 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412100349.iBA3nb915073@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 100348 SWOMCD SPC MCD 100348 GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-100515- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2527 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0948 PM CST THU DEC 09 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN INTO CNTRL GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 100348Z - 100515Z ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS WW AREA. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE. AS OF 0330Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS TSTMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE FROM WRB/ABY SWWD TO NEAR PFN IN THE FL PNHDL. AMBIENT AIR MASS REMAINS WARM AND MOIST WHICH IS CONTRIBUTING TO POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY /I.E. MLCAPES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG/ AND A RELATIVELY WEAK CAP. INSPECTION OF WATER VAPOR LOOP SUGGESTS THAT LARGE-SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY IS LIKELY AIDING IN THIS INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. LOCAL VWPS WITHIN THIS REGION REMAIN QUITE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO GIVEN 0-6 KM SHEAR/0-1 KM SRH OF 50-60 KTS/150-250 M2/S2 RESPECTIVELY. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AND IF IT APPEARS THAT ONGOING STORMS ARE BECOMING TRULY ROOTED IN BOUNDARY-LAYER...A WW MAY BE REQUIRED. ..MEAD.. 12/10/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE... 32208494 32658269 32278253 31648282 30698405 30538453 30748526 31248527 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 10 05:06:05 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 10 Dec 2004 00:06:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412100508.iBA58H907527@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 100507 SWOMCD SPC MCD 100507 SCZ000-NCZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-100630- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2528 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1107 PM CST THU DEC 09 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...W-CNTRL GA INTO CNTRL SC CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 918... VALID 100507Z - 100630Z THROUGH 06Z...GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES APPEARS TO BE FROM AROUND MCN NEWD INTO UPSTATE SC /N OF AGS/. AS OF 0450Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS MAJORITY OF INITIAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG/N OF WARM FRONT FROM NERN GA INTO NWRN SC AND INTO CNTRL NC. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL CLUSTERS OF STORMS HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FROM NE OF MCN SWWD INTO SWRN GA. LATEST MESOANALYSIS AND RUC DIAGNOSTIC FIELDS INDICATE THAT THESE STORMS ARE FORMING WITHIN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS /I.E. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S/ WHERE MLCAPES REMAIN AROUND 1000 J/KG. CURRENT VWP FROM CNTRL GA CONTINUES TO INDICATE VERY FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 50-60 KTS AND 0-1 KM SRH OF 200-250 M2/S2. GIVEN THIS COMBINATION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG SHEAR...IT APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES THROUGH 06Z WILL BE IN A CORRIDOR FROM MCN NEWD TO NW OR N OF AGS. ELSEWHERE...POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL EXIST WITH STORMS INTERACTING WITH WARM FRONT OVER NWRN SC. HOWEVER...ORIENTATION OF WARM FRONT TO OBSERVED STORM MOTIONS SUGGEST THAT RESIDENCE TIME WITHIN FAVORABLE REGION OF FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN SHORT. ..MEAD.. 12/10/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC...BMX... 33818517 35028022 33438022 32238518 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 10 06:33:18 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 10 Dec 2004 01:33:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412100635.iBA6ZU900487@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 100634 SWOMCD SPC MCD 100634 MAZ000-NHZ000-CTZ000-VTZ000-101030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2529 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1234 AM CST FRI DEC 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF VT/SWRN NH AND WRN MA CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION VALID 100634Z - 101030Z THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SNOW RATES TO REACH 1"/HR ABOVE 1000 FEET ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF VT/NH AND WRN MA. IN ADDITION...SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE BEFORE 12Z ACROSS WRN MA. LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE RACING NORTHEAST WITH MAIN CIRCULATION NOW APPROACHING BGM. REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION NOW FALLING FROM ROCHESTER NY TO NEAR HYANNIS...WITH ALL OF THIS IN THE FORM OF RAIN. LARGE AREA OF 500-700 MB UPWARD MOTION WILL SPREAD FROM SW TO NE OVER THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS...AND ETA/RUC QPF FORECASTS SUGGEST HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL EXTEND FROM ERN NY/MA/SRN VT AND NH THROUGH 12Z. GIVEN STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WHICH WILL BE OCCURRING OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS...THE PRECIPITATION WILL MAINLY BE RAIN...CHANGING TO SNOW OR SLEET BY MORNING IN SOME LOCATIONS. PROFILE IS NEARLY ISOTHERMAL PER 00Z OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM ALBANY NY...WITH JUST A SHALLOW WARM LAYER /ABOVE FREEZING/ IN THE LOWEST 2000-2500 FEET AGL. ABOVE THAT LAYER THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE SUPPORTS ALL SNOW. MAIN CONCERN FOR WRN MA THEN IS PRECIPITATION TYPE. RECENT SFC OBS AT ORE/AFN HAVE RECENTLY CHANGED TO SNOW WITH A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW AT ORH. AS STRONG WAA CONTINUES OVERNIGHT...POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW BETWEEN 06Z-09Z...AFTER WHICH TIME DRYING/WARMING AT MID LEVELS WILL CHANGE PRECIPITATION TO DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE BY 12Z. OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT FROM THE GREEN MTNS IN WRN VT MAY SUPPORT SNOW RATES INCRG TO 1"/HR FOR A FEW HOURS OVERNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PROFILES WILL REMAIN COMPLETELY BELOW FREEZING THROUGH 09-10Z...WITH SATURATED DENDRITIC ZONE FAVORING ALL SNOW. ..TAYLOR.. 12/10/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY... 44317300 43837312 43077319 42257329 42027285 42017211 42147157 42497148 42917196 43447207 44107194 44427215 44467253 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 10 07:10:21 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 10 Dec 2004 02:10:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412100712.iBA7CV910925@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 100711 SWOMCD SPC MCD 100711 GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-SCZ000-NCZ000-100815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2530 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0111 AM CST FRI DEC 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN GA...SRN/ERN SC...SERN NC CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 918...919... VALID 100711Z - 100815Z EXPECT SEVERE POTENTIAL...INCLUDING POSSIBILITY OF SUPERCELLS WITH A FEW TORNADOES...TO CONTINUE SHIFTING EWD ACROSS REMAINDER WW AREAS. THREAT MAY EXTEND EWD ACROSS REMAINDER SRN GA NEWD TO PARTS OF ERN NC DURING NEXT FEW HOURS...AND WWS LIKELY WILL BE REQUIRED TO INCLUDE THOSE AREAS. MEANWHILE...CONTINUE VALID PORTIONS PRESENT WWS UNTIL CLEARED OR REPLACED. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS FRONTAL-WAVE LOW OVER NWRN SC WITH WARM FRONT ENEWD TO BETWEEN RIC-ORF...AND STATIONARY FRONT WSWWD ACROSS CSG AREA. CONFLUENCE LINE IS EVIDENT FROM SFC LOW SSWWD ACROSS S-CENTRAL GA TO APALACHEE BAY. EXPECT THIS CONFLUENCE LINE TO MOVE ENEWD ACROSS REMAINDER ERN GA INTO WRN SC...GIVEN LOCATION OF STRONGEST PRESSURE FALLS FROM N OF AGS TO ERN NC. HODOGRAPHS SHOULD BE LARGEST E OF CONFLUENCE LINE WHERE SFC FLOW IS MORE BACKED...WITH 0-1 KM AGL SRH 200-300 J/KG BEING COMMON. DEEPER LAYER SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE AS WELL...WITH 0-6 KM SHEARS 50-60 KT. WEAK SFC-BASED CINH IS INDICATED ACROSS MUCH OF REGION BECAUSE OF DIABATIC COOLING...HOWEVER THIS EFFECT IS QUITE SHALLOW AND OFFSET TO A LARGE DEGREE BY COMBINATION OF DOWNWARD MIXING AND BOUNDARY LAYER THETAE ADVECTION. PRIND ANY SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS WILL CARRY POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES GIVEN LARGE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND NEAR SFC-BASED INSTABILITY. ..EDWARDS.. 12/10/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...RAH...ILM...GSP...BMX...AKQ...MHX... 30628348 30638560 32868430 32868207 33458022 32238513 33818513 35028024 34798019 34977950 36437683 35907621 35277626 34717687 33997798 33307915 32647997 31888083 30798153 30688256 30828328 31268304 32818210 33048187 33488024 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 10 10:59:44 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 10 Dec 2004 05:59:44 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412101101.iBAB1t928941@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 101101 SWOMCD SPC MCD 101100 NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-FLZ000-101300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2531 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0500 AM CST FRI DEC 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN/ERN GA...SRN/ERN SC...SERN NC CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 920... VALID 101100Z - 101300Z BROKEN BAND OF STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS -- OCCASIONALLY CONTAINING EMBEDDED SUPERCELL OR SMALL BOW -- WILL CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS WW TOWARD ATLANTIC COASTLINE. CUMULATIVE LINEAR COLD POOL GENERATED BY STORMS WITHIN BAND MAY FORCE SOME ACCELERATION OF CONVECTIVE LINE AS A WHOLE DURING NEXT FEW HOURS...MOVING LEADING EDGE OFFSHORE BEFORE WW EXPIRES. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...WW MAY BE CANCELED BEFORE SCHEDULED 14Z EXPIRATION. MEANWHILE...INFLOW SECTOR REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE...AND WW SHOULD BE CONTINUED ALONG/AHEAD OF THIS BAND. AIR MASS REMAINS FAVORABLY SHEARED WITH REGIONAL VWP SHOWING 150-300 J/KG SRH THROUGH 0-1 KM AGL LAYER. MODIFIED RUC FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MID-UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES 6-7 DEG C/KM ARE WIDESPREAD OVER WARM SECTOR. THIS COMBINES WITH DEW POINTS IN MID-UPPER 60S F IN LOWEST 1 KM AGL TO SUPPORT MUCAPES 1500-2000 J/KG. WHILE STRONGEST CAPES ARE DERIVED USING SLIGHTLY ELEVATED LIFTED PARCEL -- AROUND 500 M AGL -- THERE IS STILL ENOUGH SFC-BASED INSTABILITY TO JUSTIFY MAINTAINING TORNADO THREAT WITH ANY SUSTAINED AND/OR INTENSE LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES WHICH DEVELOP. POSSIBLE TORNADO WITH INJURY WAS REPORTED 10Z CALHOUN COUNTY SC. ..EDWARDS.. 12/10/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE... 30708169 30698474 34798056 34787737 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 10 11:17:47 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 10 Dec 2004 06:17:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412101119.iBABJv901911@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 101119 SWOMCD SPC MCD 101118 NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-101315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2532 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0518 AM CST FRI DEC 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF ERN NC...PORTIONS EXTREME SERN VA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 921... VALID 101118Z - 101315Z BAND OF STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS WILL CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS WW AREA INTO FAVORABLY SHEARED/UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR AIR...WITH POTENTIAL FOR HAIL...DAMAGING GUSTS AND A FEW TORNADOES. ALTHOUGH WARM SECTOR SFC FLOW HAS VEERED SOMEWHAT...HODOGRAPHS REMAIN QUITE LONG AND STILL SUPPORT 0-1 KM AGL SRH AOA 200 J/KG IN MANY AREAS. ALTHOUGH BUOYANCY IN WARM SECTOR IS COMPUTED WITH SLIGHTLY ELEVATED LIFTED PARCEL -- 250-500 M AGL -- ENOUGH SFC-BASED INSTABILITY IS EVIDENT THAT TORNADO THREAT PROBABLY EXISTS WITH ANY SUSTAINED AND/OR INTENSE LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES WHICH DEVELOP. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS MOVED E ACROSS ALMOST ALL OF SERN VA...INCLUDING HAMPTON ROADS REGION...SUBSTANTIALLY STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS BEHIND IT AND REDUCING THREAT FOR SEVERE FROM SFC-BASED TSTMS IN THAT AREA. GIVEN PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS BOUNDARY AND PRECIP ONGOING BEHIND IT...SFC AIR MASS RECOVERY IS NOT EXPECTED AND TORNADO THREAT OVER VA PORTION WW HAS DIMINISHED MARKEDLY. HOWEVER..GIVEN ELEVATED MUCAPES 1000-1500 J/KG BASED ON MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS...AND VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINING FAVORABLE FOR STORM ROTATION ALOFT...THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL PERSISTS WITH TSTMS MOVING NEWD BEHIND LEADING OUTFLOW EDGE. ..EDWARDS.. 12/10/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CAE... 34807674 34808019 36937714 36937385 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 10 11:40:17 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 10 Dec 2004 06:40:17 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412101142.iBABgR908949@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 101141 SWOMCD SPC MCD 101141 FLZ000-GAZ000-101415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2533 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0541 AM CST FRI DEC 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NRN FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 101141Z - 101415Z BROKEN BAND OF TSTMS IS FCST TO SHIFT EWD ACROSS NRN FL PENINSULA THROUGH AT LEAST 14Z...AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT. BRIEF SPIN-UP OF DAMAGING BOW OR SUPERCELL TORNADO IS POSSIBLE...HOWEVER THREAT APPEARS LIMITED ENOUGH IN SPACE AND TIME THAT WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. SFC FLOW HAS VEERED ACROSS THIS AREA...REDUCING CONVERGENCE SOMEWHAT AND ALSO REDUCING DIRECTIONAL SHEAR CONTRIBUTION TO LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH SIZE. THIS TREND IS FCST TO CONTINUE THROUGH MIDMORNING GIVEN RETREAT OF STRONGEST ISALLOBARIC FORCING AWAY FROM REGION...ACROSS TIDEWATER/MID-ATLANTIC STATES. HOWEVER...FOR ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS THERE REMAINS ENOUGH SHEAR/INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SUPERCELL/BOW POTENTIAL. DESPITE NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW...JAX VWP SUPPORTS 0-1 KM SRH 200-300 J/KG FOR ANY TSTMS MOVING 20-30 DEG RIGHTWARD OF MEAN WIND...OR JUST N OF DUE E. ONE CAVEAT MAY BE SFC-BASED CINH ESTIMATED TO BE STRONGER THAN FARTHER N OVER WW 920...BASED ON MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS SHOWING 500-800 M AGL MOST UNSTABLE LIFTED PARCEL. EXPECT SEVERE POTENTIAL TO DIMINISH WITH PASSAGE OF CONVECTIVE BAND AND WITH TIME AS CONVERGENCE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. ..EDWARDS.. 12/10/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE... 29688346 30378241 30738195 30738150 30538137 29818128 29008165 28698245 29178315 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 10 16:11:34 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 10 Dec 2004 11:11:34 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412101613.iBAGDk921617@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 101613 SWOMCD SPC MCD 101612 VAZ000-WVZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-101645- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2534 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1012 AM CST FRI DEC 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF TENNESSEE VALLEY/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 101612Z - 101645Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF INCREASING SEVERE THREAT. A SLIGHT RISK IS BEING ADDED TO UPCOMING 1630Z OUTLOOK. ALTHOUGH HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AIR HAS SHIFTED OFF TO THE EAST... AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT...SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE STILL IN THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S ACROSS THE UPPER TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN/ WESTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. AS MID-LEVEL COLD POOL /WITH COLDEST 500 MB TEMPS AOB -25C/ IN BASE OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH OVERSPREADS REGION THIS AFTERNOON...DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY. MIXED LAYER CAPE COULD EXCEED 500 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON. WITH PRESSURE GRADIENT...ASSOCIATED WITH OCCLUDED SURFACE LOW OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY...SUPPORTIVE OF FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON... DESTABILIZATION WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY DEEPENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE...WITH A FEW UPDRAFTS VIGOROUS ENOUGH FOR HAIL EXCEEDING SEVERE LIMITS IN FAVORABLY COOL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. ..KERR.. 12/10/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN... 37458327 37988121 37658016 36208048 35188174 34188340 34058617 34838635 36138604 37118472 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 10 17:52:00 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 10 Dec 2004 12:52:00 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412101754.iBAHs9903311@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 101753 SWOMCD SPC MCD 101753 TNZ000-NCZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-102000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2535 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1153 AM CST FRI DEC 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TN...NE AL...NRN GA...WRN NC CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS/SEVERE POTENTIAL VALID 101753Z - 102000Z TRENDS CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. GENERAL SEVERE THREAT STILL APPEARS MARGINAL...AND A WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. INCREASING/DEEPENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EVIDENT IN LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. SURFACE TEMPERATURE RISES ARE SLOW DUE TO ONGOING LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION...BUT LATEST OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE INDICATES STRONGER MID-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION IS ALREADY CONTRIBUTING TO CAPE UP TO 500 J/KG FOR MOST UNSTABLE SURFACE PARCELS. MIXED LAYER CAPE IS STILL ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 250 J/KG OR SO...BUT SHOULD INCREASE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING AND INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AMPLIFYING UPSTREAM TROUGH. TRENDS WILL BE FOR SOUTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER JET AXIS TO CONTINUE GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON...AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS PROGRESSES EAST OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HOWEVER...SHEAR PROFILES ON THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS APPEAR LIKELY TO REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO ENHANCE RISK FOR HAIL IN DEVELOPING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. EXPERIMENTAL HAIL ALGORITHM RUN ON LATEST MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS SOME RISK FOR HAIL APPROACHING THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS ACROSS EXTREME NORTHWEST GEORGIA...AND AREAS OF TENNESSEE BETWEEN CHATTANOOGA/KNOXVILLE. ..KERR.. 12/10/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN... 34418480 34508564 34898604 35408596 35958534 36568386 36418284 35138349 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Dec 11 01:05:34 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 10 Dec 2004 20:05:34 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412110107.iBB17g919984@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 110107 SWOMCD SPC MCD 110106 MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-110500- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2536 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0706 PM CST FRI DEC 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NE NY/NRN VT/NRN NH INTO NRN ME CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION VALID 110106Z - 110500Z MIX OF SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z FROM ADIRONDACK MTNS OF NY INTO NRN VT/NRN NH...WITH SNOW INCREASING ACROSS NW ME AFTER 03Z. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS UPPER TROUGH TRANSITIONING EWD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...AS ATTENDANT 997 MB SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS NEWD ACROSS WRN PA/DELMARVA AREA. DPVA AND WARM AIR ADVECTION COMBINED WITH EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET ARE CONTRIBUTING TO STRONG UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION/BROAD PRECIP SHIELD FROM ERN NY INTO NEW ENGLAND. OWING TO WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF CYCLONE...LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS ALL BUT UPSTATE NY/VT/NH/ME FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. ACROSS NE NY AND NRN VT/NH...21Z RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS PORTRAY A LOSS OF SEEDER FEEDER/FAVORABLE DENDRITIC PROFILES BY 04Z-06Z OWING TO APPROACHING DRY SLOT AHEAD OF CYCLONE. THIS SUGGESTS DIMINISHING PRECIP RATES AND LOSS OF ICE INTRODUCTION AFTER APPROX 04Z...LIKELY LEADING TO FREEZING DRIZZLE/LIGHT SNOW. FURTHER NE...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/INCREASE ACROSS NE ME THIS EVENING AS INITIALLY DRY LOW TO MID LEVELS /E.G. 00Z CAR RAOB/ BECOME EFFECTIVELY SATURATED. LOW/MID LEVEL PROFILES HAVE REMAINED COLDER ACROSS NW ME...WITH PRECIPITATION RATES LIKELY TO FURTHER ENHANCED BY INCREASING MID LEVEL /800MB-600MB/ EAST-WEST FRONTOGENETICAL COMPONENT. AFTER 03Z...SNOW RATES MAY APPROACH 1 IN/HR ACROSS NW ME FOR A FEW HOURS DURATION. ..GUYER.. 12/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BTV...ALY... 44997333 44997232 45027153 45337104 45577062 46127011 46066972 45946941 45226937 44756964 44307047 43877142 43907289 43977462 44927466 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Dec 11 06:14:42 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 11 Dec 2004 01:14:42 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412110616.iBB6Go919050@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 110616 SWOMCD SPC MCD 110615 MEZ000-NHZ000-111015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2537 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1215 AM CST SAT DEC 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/NRN ME...AND FAR NRN NH CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION VALID 110615Z - 111015Z WINTRY MIX WILL CONTINUE ACROSS FAR NRN NH AND MUCH OF INTERIOR ME THROUGH 13Z. MOSTLY SNOW IS EXPECTED NEAR PQI/CAR AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NWRN ME. SNOW WILL CHANGE TO SLEET IN A BAND FROM SRN AROOSTOOK COUNTY WSWWD THROUGH CENTRAL SOMERSET AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES DURING 9-11Z TIME PERIOD. FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN IS LIKELY WITH MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF INTERIOR ME. SYNOPTICALLY...HIGH AMPLITUDE...SLOW MOVING 500MB LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE NEWD THROUGH THE UPPER OH RIVER VALLEY. A WARM CONVEYOR BELT WITH A LONG FETCH FROM THE SERN GULF OF MEXICO NNEWD ALONG THE EAST COAST IS EVIDENT...WITH A DRY SLOT EXTENDING FROM THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT NEWD INTO THE CT RIVER VALLEY. SFC MAP AT 05Z INDICATES DOUBLE-BARREL SURFACE LOW WITH SECONDARY CENTER STRENGTHENING JUST SOUTH OF NYC. WARM FRONT EXTENDS EWD FROM LONG ISLAND TO CAPE COD WITH A MESOSCALE COASTAL FRONT FROM CAPE ANN NEWD ALONG THE ME COAST. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM NRN ME THROUGH SRN NH ASSOCIATED WITH WEDGE OF SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES LOCKED IN PLACE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. SURFACE LOW SHOULD TRACK NEWD TO NEAR PWM BY 12Z...WITH SIGNIFICANT 850-700MB WARM ADVECTION EXPECTED TO LIFT NWD DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD INTO MID-MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF ME AND NRN NH. LOW TRACK SHOULD YIELD LIGHT NELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ME MAINTAINING SHALLOW SUB-FREEZING LAYER NEAR THE SFC THROUGH 13Z. INCREASING PRECIPITATION TRENDS ARE NOTED IN MOSAIC RADAR REFLECTIVITY ACROSS NERN MA AND THE GULF OF ME...ASSOCIATED WITH 140KT 300MB JET WHICH IS MOVING RAPIDLY NEWD INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND. LARGE-SCALE FORCING SHOULD BECOME FOCUSED ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN ME DURING THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SUPPORT SNOW ACROSS FAR NRN ME INCLUDING CENTRAL/NRN AROOSTOOK COUNTY...THE ALLAGASH...AND ADJACENT NWRN MTNS. THE 00Z ETA DEVELOPS SIGNIFICANT WARMING ALOFT WITH +6C AT BGR BY 09Z NEAR 825MB. ONGOING ZR WILL CHANGE TO RAIN IN THE COASTAL PLAIN WITH MIXED SLEET/ZR ZONE MIGRATING NWD TO MLT BY 09Z AND HUL BY 11Z. STRONG AXIS OF 700MB DEFORMATION ON NRN EDGE OF WARM ADVECTION SHOULD SUPPORT 1"/HR SNOW RATES ACROSS FAR NRN ME FOR SEVERAL HOURS BETWEEN ROUGHLY 08-12Z BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. ..BANACOS.. 12/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX... 47456926 47426851 47266814 46966786 45436773 44946837 44766881 44336971 44177042 44207082 44377101 44527123 44607126 44827133 45167111 45637065 46576998 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Dec 13 18:00:36 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 13 Dec 2004 13:00:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412131802.iBDI2r917310@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 131802 SWOMCD SPC MCD 131801 INZ000-MIZ000-132200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2538 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1201 PM CST MON DEC 13 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SW LOWER MI/FAR NCNTRL IN CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION VALID 131801Z - 132200Z ORGANIZED BAND OF MDT/OCNLY HVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT SSWWD ACROSS VAN BUREN/KALAMAZOO/CASS/ST. JOSEPH/ERN BERRIEN COUNTIES OF SW LOWER MI...AND ST. JOSEPH/ELKHART/WRN LAGRANGE COUNTIES OF NCNTRL IN THROUGH 00Z. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-1.5 IN/HR WILL BE POSSIBLE. LATEST SFC MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS SFC TROUGH AXIS/WIND SHIFT TRANSITIONING SWD ACROSS SRN LOWER MI...ROUGHLY INVOF OF I-96/I-94 CORRIDOR AT 18Z. ALONG/BEHIND THIS TROUGH...A NW SHIFT IN THE SFC WINDS HAS YIELDED A MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL NNW FLOW REGIME IN THE LOWEST FEW KM...RESULTING IN AN ORGANIZED LES BAND FROM NEAR BIV /HOLLAND/ TO AZO /KALAMAZOO/. AS SFC TROUGH CONTINUES TO PROGRESS SWD...BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW EXPECTED TO ALSO SHIFT SSWWD ACROSS FAR SW LOWER MI AND FAR NCNTRL IN. THIS SCENARIO IS IN ACCORDANCE WITH 15Z RUC AND EXPERIMENTAL 4KM WRF GUIDANCE. ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY DRIER MID LEVEL AIR WILL BE ENTRAINED THIS AFTERNOON...15Z RUC POINT FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FAVORABLE DENDRITIC LAYER WILL BE MAINTAINED NEAR TOP OF INVERSION AT AROUND 6-6.5K FT. THUS POSSIBILITY FOR SNOWFALL RATES AS HIGH AS 1-1.5 IN/HR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ..GUYER.. 12/13/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR... 42538616 42328562 41968544 41678542 41438557 41498650 41888660 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Dec 13 19:10:56 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 13 Dec 2004 14:10:56 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412131913.iBDJDD918580@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 131912 SWOMCD SPC MCD 131912 PAZ000-NYZ000-OHZ000-132315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2539 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0112 PM CST MON DEC 13 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...OH/PA/NY LAKE SHORE OF LAKE ERIE CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION VALID 131912Z - 132315Z MDT/OCNLY HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INVOF FAR NE OH/NW PA/WRN NY ERIE LAKE SHORE...DEVELOPING SWD AWAY FROM IMMEDIATE LAKE SHORE OWING TO ONSET OF NWLY BOUNDARY LAYER TRAJECTORIES BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL RATES AS HIGH AS 1.5-2.0 HR WILL BE POSSIBLE. AMIDST CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY...FETCH OF STRONG W/SW WINDS CURRENTLY MAINTAINING MDT/OCNLY HEAVY LES IN IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF LAKE ERIE SHORE FROM FAR NE OH INTO CHAUTAUQUA/ERIE COUNTIES OF NY. HOWEVER WITH PASSAGE OF LOW LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS FAR SW ONTARIO/NRN LAKE ERIE...15Z RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TRANSITION TO NWLY /APPROX 320 DEG/ LOW LEVEL FLOW BY 21Z-23Z FROM NE OH INTO ERIE LAKE SHORE OF NY. THIS SCENARIO SHOULD YIELD A WWD DEVELOPMENT/EXPANSION OF HEAVIER SNOW ACROSS CUYAHOGA/LORAIN COUNTIES OF OH THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON...WHILE ALSO SPREADING INCREASED SNOWFALL SWD INTO AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE LAKE ERIE SHORE. ..GUYER.. 12/13/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE... 42467936 42437907 42057932 41787976 41578004 41288076 41248119 41278204 41478203 41818119 42088012 42307961 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Dec 14 00:29:55 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 13 Dec 2004 19:29:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412140032.iBE0WB929639@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 140031 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140031 INZ000-MIZ000-140430- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2540 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0631 PM CST MON DEC 13 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SW LOWER MI/FAR NCNTRL IN CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION VALID 140031Z - 140430Z MDT/OCNLY HEAVY LES BAND EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS WRN ALLEGAN/WRN VAN BUREN/ERN BERRIEN/CASS COUNTIES MI INTO ST JOSEPH/ELKHART COUNTIES IN THROUGH 06Z...WITH SNOWFALL RATES AS HIGH AS 1.5 IN/HR POSSIBLE. SINGLE LES BAND HAS REMAIN ORGANIZED INTO EARLY EVENING ACROSS FAR SW LOWER MI/FAR NCNTRL IN...FROM BIV /HOLLAND/ LAKESHORE TO NEAR SBN AND GSH /GOSHEN/. LATEST GRR WSR-88D VAD PORTRAYS NNWLY WINDS OF 20-30 KTS WITHIN CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER...LARGELY UNCHANGED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. 21Z RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS NNWLY WINDS NEAR TOP OF CONVECTIVE LAYER /AROUND 6000 FT/ MAY GRADUALLY BECOME MORE NWLY AROUND/AFTER 03Z...ALTHOUGH WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS WELL. IN ALL...ORGANIZED LES BAND EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE THROUGH 06Z. ..GUYER.. 12/14/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR... 42788626 42618608 42108588 41658562 41428560 41428595 41888629 42218647 42388645 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Dec 18 18:39:25 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 18 Dec 2004 13:39:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412181841.iBIIfNbj005877@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 181840 SWOMCD SPC MCD 181840 MIZ000-WIZ000-182245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2541 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1240 PM CST SAT DEC 18 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...UPPER PENINSULA OF MI/FAR NRN WI CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 181840Z - 182245Z LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE WRN UPPER PENINSULA OF MI AND FAR NRN WI WITH BRIEF HEAVY SNOW RATES OF UP TO 2"/HR. LAKE ENHANCED SNOW BANDS WILL AFFECT THE LOWER PENINSULA THIS AFTN. LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES ARCTIC FRONT EXTENDS FROM SFC LOW IN NERN ONTARIO SWWD ALONG ISQ/GRB/ISW LINE. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS N/S LAKE EFFECT SNOWBANDS FROM WRN LAKE SUPERIOR EWD. HOWEVER RADAR IMAGERY ACROSS THE CNTRL U.P. OF MI SUGGESTS BANDS ARE DISORGANIZED...LIKELY DUE TO WEAK LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. RUC OBSERVATIONAL ANALYSIS SHOWS CURRENT TEMPS AT 850 MB ARE AROUND -10C TO -15C ACROSS NRN WI/WRN U.P. OF MI. UPPER TROUGH AXIS...NOTED AS A DARKENING AREA IN WV IMAGERY ACROSS THE MN ARROWHEAD...WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY TONIGHT...ENHANCING LARGE SCALE LIFT. TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB ARE FORECAST TO DROP BETWEEN 5-10 DEGREES C BY 19/00Z...RESULTING IN MORE FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW THIS AFTN/TONIGHT. THE HIGHEST SNOW RATES OVER THE NEXT 4 HOURS OR SO WILL LIKELY EXTEND FROM VILAS/ONTONAGON/HOUGHTON COUNTIES ON THE WEST...TO MARQUETTE/DICKINSON ON THE EAST. FETCH OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL FAVOR AREAS WHERE NLY SFC WINDS ARE STRONGEST. MEANWHILE...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN LIGHT-MOD SNOW ACROSS THE LOWER PENINSULA OF MI. HEAVY SNOW RATES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THIS AREA UNTIL LATER THIS AFTN/TONIGHT. ..TAYLOR.. 12/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB... 45788866 45878947 46298949 46818885 46978821 46758740 46538715 46148743 46048763 45918823 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Dec 19 00:58:18 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 18 Dec 2004 19:58:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412190100.iBJ10Hor001534@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 190059 SWOMCD SPC MCD 190059 MIZ000-190500- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2542 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0659 PM CST SAT DEC 18 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...UPPER PENINSULA OF MI CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 190059Z - 190500Z ...OCCASIONALLY HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE U.P. OF MI TONIGHT...WITH SNOW RATES UP TO 2"/HR... RECENT RADAR IMAGERY FROM MARQUETTE AND DULUTH SHOW MULTIPLE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS WITH A FAVORED NLY FETCH OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUGGEST THESE BANDS WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL ONLY INCREASE THIS EVENING...AS ARCTIC AIRMASS BECOMES MORE ENTRENCHED. VWP DATA INDICATE A NLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE THROUGH AT LEAST 3 KM...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THIS WILL DEEPEN TO AROUND 500 MB BY 03Z. IN ADDITION VERY STRONG SFC WINDS OF 20-30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY LOCALLY TO LESS THAN A MILE AT TIMES THIS EVENING. HEAVIER SNOW BANDS WILL LIKELY DIMINISH EARLIER ACROSS THE ERN PORTION OF THE PENINSULA ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE/CAA WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. ..TAYLOR.. 12/19/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...APX...MQT... 45888508 45868567 46008737 46578877 47178849 47418797 46688530 46508471 46218466 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Dec 19 05:33:15 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 19 Dec 2004 00:33:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412190535.iBJ5ZH5b025938@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 190533 SWOMCD SPC MCD 190532 INZ000-MIZ000-190930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2543 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1132 PM CST SAT DEC 18 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NRN IND AND FAR SWRN MI CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 190532Z - 190930Z LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS FAR NRN IND AND FAR SWRN MI THROUGH 19/11Z. SNOW RATES UP TO 2"/HR POSSIBLE AT TIMES OVER LOCALIZED AREAS EXPERIENCING STRONGEST BANDS. STRONG LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE SRN GREAT LAKES REGION AS ARCTIC BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM WRN LAKE ERIE SWWD ACROSS NWRN OH TO CENTRAL IL CONTINUES TO PUSH SEWD. RUC INDICATES 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -10C WILL FALL TO AROUND -20C BY 12Z ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. COUPLED WITH LAKE TEMPERATURES AROUND +6C AND A LONG NLY FETCH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN...LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWS. DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS MINIMAL PER CHICAGO VAD THROUGH 2.5KM...AND ETA MODEL WINDS INDICATE LITTLE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR THROUGH 11Z ACROSS FAR NRN IND...WHICH SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF A SINGLE INTENSE BAND DEVELOPING OVER SRN LAKE MICHIGAN DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...INVERSION HEIGHTS REMAIN IN 8-9KFT RANGE PER ETA FORECAST MAINTAINING SIGNIFICANT DEPTH OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE LAKE AND FORECAST OF LOCALIZED 1-2"/HR RATES BETWEEN 6-11Z. RUC IS SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS AROUND 7KFT. MEAN BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD REMAIN 350-355 DEG AT 30KTS BEFORE VEERING BETWEEN 10-12Z TO 360-005 DEG. ..BANACOS.. 12/19/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...IWX...LOT... 41658707 41628728 41668748 41318745 41248735 41228702 41348660 41598643 41988639 42188639 41888664 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Dec 19 11:07:31 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 19 Dec 2004 06:07:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412191109.iBJB9TBI032625@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 191108 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191108 INZ000-MIZ000-OHZ000-191615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2544 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0508 AM CST SUN DEC 19 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NW IND AND SWRN MI...NERN OH CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 191108Z - 191615Z HEAVIEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL SHIFT SLOWLY OUT OF EXTREME SWRN MI LATER THIS MORNING...WHILE GRADUALLY MOVING WWD OVER NWRN IND AND INTENSIFYING THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. SNOW BANDS SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED IN THE WAKE OF ARCTIC FROPA ACROSS NERN OH. NLY FETCH ACROSS LH WILL BE FURTHER ENHANCED BY SHORT FETCH ACROSS LE TO RESULT IN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW ALONG THE SRN SHORE OF LE INTO THE AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL RATES WITHIN THE CORE OF THE MOST INTENSE SNOW BANDS COULD EXCEED 2 IN/HR. LATEST MESOANALYSIS WAS SHOWING A THERMALLY-INDUCED SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE SRN TIP OF LM NWD TO SRN LS. THIS FEATURE HAS ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE FROM THE U.P. OF MI SWD ACROSS THE N-S FETCH OF LM WHERE A SINGLE LONG-FETCH SNOW BAND CONTINUES TO EVOLVE EARLY TODAY. STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE MAXIMIZED OVER SRN LM OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH LAKE SURFACE TO 850MB DELTA-T VALUES IN THE EXTREME RANGE AROUND 30C. THIS STRONG LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH A RISING INVERSION AND LIMITED DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT INTENSE LAKE EFFECT SNOW OFF SRN LM. LATEST 4KM WRF WAS FCSTG A WWD SHIFT TO THE SINGLE BAND ACROSS SRN LM AND RECENT RADAR TRENDS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THIS FCST. THIS WWD SHIFT IS FURTHER SUPPORTED BY SLOW WWD SHIFT TO THE THERMAL TROUGH AXIS...MORE TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF LM OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE HEAVIEST SNOW BECOMING INCREASINGLY FOCUSED ACROSS NWRN IND INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. FARTHER EAST...ACROSS NERN OH...SNOW BANDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME BETTER DEFINED FROM LH SWD ACROSS LE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. AS THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE ACROSS LS AND LM SHIFT EAST WITH THE LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL ARCTIC AIRMASS...LAKE EFFECT SNOW OFF OF LAKE ERIE SHOULD INTENSIFY INTO THE AFTERNOON. ..CARBIN.. 12/19/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...CLE... 41618739 41298750 40988735 40898715 40738658 40718619 41248599 41548600 41718597 41968613 42088651 41788670 41728144 41888076 41648081 41218132 41038161 41048181 41178229 41288239 41378246 41538189 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Dec 19 18:05:32 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 19 Dec 2004 13:05:32 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412191807.iBJI7SZp025371@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 191806 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191805 MDZ000-PAZ000-WVZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-192200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2545 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1205 PM CST SUN DEC 19 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SW PA THROUGH THE SRN APPALACHIANS CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 191805Z - 192200Z HEAVY SNOW RATES OF 1-2"/HR ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTN MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM SW PA/WV THROUGH THE SRN APPALACHIANS. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM JUST EAST OF STATE COLLEGE PA TO HILLSVILLE VA AND ASHEVILLE NC. BEHIND THIS FRONT...A VERY COLD AIRMASS WILL ADVECT QUICKLY SEWD...WITH SFC TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW FREEZING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. AT UPPER LEVELS...LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS SHARP TROUGH AXIS NOW MOVING THROUGH THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY. LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG PVA/HEIGHT FALLS WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE WILL RESULT IN SNOW EVEN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. UPSLOPE FLOW WILL FURTHER ENHANCE SNOWFALL RATES ESPECIALLY ON NW FACING SLOPES AS SFC WINDS VEER BEHIND THE FRONT. POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE STEEPENING LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE AFTN AS 850MB TEMPS DROP 5C OR MORE BY 20/00Z. ..TAYLOR.. 12/19/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC... 38247967 36158148 34808324 35218421 36008383 37238264 38488151 40747971 40747933 40617864 39467900 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Dec 20 00:52:10 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 19 Dec 2004 19:52:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412200054.iBK0s5rX007625@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 200052 SWOMCD SPC MCD 200052 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-200645- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2546 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0652 PM CST SUN DEC 19 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME ERN ND/NWRN MN CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION VALID 200052Z - 200645Z SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NWRN MN SPREADING INTO THE MN ARROWHEAD AFTER MIDNIGHT. STRONG S WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH MAY CREATE WHITEOUT CONDITIONS TONIGHT. THREAT ALSO EXISTS FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/SLEET DEVELOPING. LATEST ANALYSIS PLACES WARM FRONT ACROSS THE CNTRL DAKOTAS ROUGHLY EAST OF A MINOT ND/PHILLIPS SD LINE. CURRENT SFC TEMPERATURES IN THE WRN DAKOTAS HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID 40S TO 50 IN RAP CITY AS OF 20/00Z...WHILE TEMPS EAST OF THE FRONT ARE IN THE TEENS. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS ALREADY DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT/WAA ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG WARM FRONT. ADDITIONALLY...THERE IS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING THROUGH CNTRL ALBERTA AND LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL BE FURTHER ENHANCED ON NOSE OF APPROACHING 100+ KT UPPER JET. FIRST WAVE OF SNOW WHICH IS ONGOING WILL MOVE ACROSS NRN MN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT ETA/RUC DEPICT A FRONTAL PCPN BAND DEVELOPING BETWEEN 03-06Z WHICH MAY AFFECT EXTREME ERN ND AND NRN MN OVERNIGHT. WITH A 50+ KT LOW LEVEL JET AND RAPIDLY WARMING 850MB TEMPS...SOME QUESTION EXISTS FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING TOWARD 06Z. 00Z OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM BISMARCK HAS 850MB TEMPS NEAR 8C WITH ABERDEEN NEAR 4C. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME SLEET IS THE MOST LIKELY POSSIBILITY. HOWEVER...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES INDICATE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN COULD DEVELOP IF FORECAST 850MB TEMPS RISE TO 3-4C WHICH WOULD MELT FROZEN PRECIPITATION AT THAT LEVEL. SFC TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW FREEZING...SO SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER NRN MN. ..TAYLOR.. 12/20/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR... 46209386 45779665 46849722 48929704 49509593 49559417 49149319 47339328 46669352 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Dec 20 00:54:14 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 19 Dec 2004 19:54:14 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412200056.iBK0u8vD009240@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 200055 SWOMCD SPC MCD 200055 MEZ000-NHZ000-MAZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-200500- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2547 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0655 PM CST SUN DEC 19 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NY/NH/VT INTO WRN MA/CT CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 200055Z - 200500Z BRIEF HEAVY PERIOD OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING WITH RATES OF 1"/HR. ARCTIC COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM ERN NH/WRN MA SWD INTO THE COASTAL WATERS OFF THE NJ COAST. LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH AXIS NOW LOCATED ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN APPALACHIANS. WITH VERY COLD AIRMASS ADVECTING INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT...PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY SNOW INLAND. AS SFC LOW DEEPENS OFF THE COAST...INCREASING CONVERGENCE ALONG THE 850MB FRONT COMBINED WITH DIFFERENTIAL DIVERGENCE THROUGH A DEEP LAYER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A BAND OF MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL EXTENDING FROM LONG ISLAND/CT INTO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF VT/NH. ..TAYLOR.. 12/20/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY... 44337282 43717308 41857383 40527394 40547289 42477151 45087091 45127164 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Dec 20 07:01:50 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 20 Dec 2004 02:01:50 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412200703.iBK73hgt018510@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 200703 SWOMCD SPC MCD 200702 MIZ000-WIZ000-MNZ000-201130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2548 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0102 AM CST MON DEC 20 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MN...NRN WI...WRN U.P. OF MI CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 200702Z - 201130Z MDT TO HVY SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD EWD FROM THE ARROWHEAD OF MN ACROSS THE WRN PARTS OF LS...NRN WI...AND THE WRN U.P. OF MI THROUGH DAYBREAK. SNOWFALL RATES AROUND 1 INCH PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE AREAS FOR UP TO A 3-4 HOUR PERIOD. DEEP SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER SRN MANITOBA WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY TODAY AS A STRONG MID LEVEL IMPULSE TRANSLATES ESE ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES AND NRN PLAINS. IN RESPONSE TO THIS LARGE SCALE FORCING...STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND INTENSE LOW THROUGH MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION HAVE DEVELOPED RAPIDLY ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND THE UPPER MS VALLEY EARLY TODAY. ETA AND SREF GUIDANCE HAS CAPTURED THIS PROCESS QUITE WELL AND SUGGEST THAT STRONGEST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE AND MOVE EWD FROM THE MN ARROWHEAD OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS. DESPITE RELATIVELY LIMITED DEEP MOISTURE WITH SOUNDINGS INDICATING DRIER AIR ALOFT...STRONG FORCING AND VERY COLD SURFACE-BASED AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN MDT TO HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES WITHIN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION BAND AS IT MOVES EAST. FURTHERMORE...LIQUID TO SNOW RATIOS GREATER THAN 10 TO 1 SHOULD RESULT IN A RELATIVELY BRIEF BUT INTENSE PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW. PRECIPITATION SHIELD APPEARS TO BE OUTRUNNING LOW LEVEL WARM NOSE AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE THREAT OF MIXED PRECIPITATION/FREEZING RAIN. ..CARBIN.. 12/20/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...MPX... 48489171 48169041 47888908 47578840 46468739 45788764 45728826 45578921 45509027 45509082 45769217 46209271 47169296 47959299 48219307 48509270 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Dec 20 11:27:49 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 20 Dec 2004 06:27:49 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412201129.iBKBThg9010136@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 201129 SWOMCD SPC MCD 201128 WIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-201630- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2549 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0528 AM CST MON DEC 20 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IA...SRN MN...WRN WI CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION VALID 201128Z - 201630Z WINTER WEATHER HAZARDS INCLUDING ICE PELLETS AND MDT TO HVY SNOW ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS PARTS OF NRN IA...SRN MN...AND WRN WI FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. ICE PELLETS APPEAR TO BE PRIMARY THREAT OVER WRN MN THIS MORNING WHILE A NARROW AXIS OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL...WITH RATES APPROACHING 1 INCH PER HOUR...MAY DEVELOP FROM SERN MN INTO WRN WI BY AFTERNOON. LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS DEPICTING COOLING CLOUD TOPS WITHIN A DEVELOPING SMALL-SCALE BAROCLINIC LEAF ACROSS NERN SD AND CNTRL MN. THIS FEATURE APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO STRONG IMPULSE AND MID/UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK SPREADING EAST FROM ERN WY THIS MORNING. LATEST RUC AND 06Z ETA ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION INCREASING FROM ERN SD INTO SRN MN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WAS ALREADY OCCURRING ACROSS THIS AREA WITH INITIAL ROUND OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT-INDUCED MDT/HVY SNOW NOW MOVING EAST ACROSS WI. CONTINUED MOISTENING/WARMING WITHIN TRAILING ZONE OF LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS SRN MN...COUPLED WITH INTENSIFYING SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING FOR DEEP ASCENT...SHOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN WINTER PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. FORECAST THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SUPPORT SNOW FROM SERN MN ACROSS WI. HOWEVER...ACROSS WRN MN AND PARTS OF NWRN IA...PRONOUNCED WARM NOSE WITH 850MB WET BULB TEMPERATURES 4-6C SHOULD RESULT IN A MIXTURE OF ICE PELLETS ACROSS THESE AREAS...POSSIBLY CHANGING BACK TO SNOW LATER TODAY. ..CARBIN.. 12/20/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...GRB...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD... 45379065 44438957 43819044 43379486 43729610 44659604 45299351 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Dec 21 17:26:25 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 21 Dec 2004 12:26:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412211728.iBLHSpoR032016@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 211728 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211728 TXZ000-211900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2555 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1128 AM CST TUE DEC 21 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...UPPER TX COAST AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 211728Z - 211900Z TSTMS HAVE BEEN INCREASING ALONG THE UPPER TX COAST FROM NEAR KIAH TO KGLS AND FROM 60-90 NM OFFSHORE KGLS THIS MORNING. THE STORMS ARE PROBABLY BEING AIDED BY WEAK LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MIGRATING ACROSS SERN TX. MESOANALYSIS PLACES A 1012 MB LOW JUST SOUTH OF GALVESTON ISLAND WITH THE COASTAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER TX COAST SWD ACROSS THE WRN GULF BASIN. TONGUE OF LOW-MID 60S DEW POINTS HAS ADVECTED NWD ALONG THIS TROUGH BENEATH STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE H7-H5 LAYER. THOUGH STRONGER INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN OFFSHORE SUPPORTING THE STRONGER TSTMS/SUPERCELLS...INSOLATION ALONG THE COAST...RELATIVELY COOL TROPOSPHERE AND 30 KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SOME STORM ORGANIZATION INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...BUT AN ISOLD TORNADO IS POSSIBLE. FUNNEL CLOUDS WERE OBSERVED EARLIER THIS MORNING OFFSHORE OF GALVESTON ISLAND. FARTHER S WHERE GREATER INSTABILITY IS BEING OBSERVED...THE THREATS FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND WATERSPOUTS WILL CONTINUE. THESE STORMS SHOULD STAY OFFSHORE...BUT LEFT SPLITS COULD MOVE ONSHORE WITH HAIL POSSIBLE. ..RACY.. 12/21/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX... 29019527 30049529 30189410 29139384 28599410 28439493 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Dec 22 00:34:45 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 21 Dec 2004 19:34:45 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412220037.iBM0bA34026965@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 220036 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220035 ILZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-220430- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2556 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0635 PM CST TUE DEC 21 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...S-CENTRAL/SERN MO AND SRN IL CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION VALID 220035Z - 220430Z MIXED WINTER PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS S-CENTRAL/SERN MO ENEWD INTO SRN IL BETWEEN 03-06Z. INITIAL RAINFALL WILL MIX WITH AND GRADUALLY CHANGE TO SNOW FROM NW TO SE...WITH LOCALIZED MOD/HVY SNOW POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT. AT 22/00Z...SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL IND SWWD ACROSS SRN MO INTO CENTRAL OK...WITH SURFACE WET BULB FREEZING LINE TRAILING THE BOUNDARY BY 30-40NM. COLD AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER SWD ACROSS SRN MO/SRN IL THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS. MEANWHILE...MOIST FLOW FROM THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO STREAM NWD IN ADVANCE OF SURFACE LOW OVER NERN TX. WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN AR...OVER THE TOP OF A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING NEWD FROM THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL AR. MID-LEVEL FLOW FIELD IS PROGGED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY FRONTOGENETIC ON NRN EDGE OF WARM ADVECTION IN 850-700MB LAYER. THESE TRENDS ARE ALREADY UNDERWAY WITH A NOTED INCREASE IN RADAR REFLECTIVITY OVER SERN MO/SRN IL IN VICINITY OF MODERATELY STRONG 700MB BAROCLINIC ZONE. DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SLOW ONSET OF PRECIP...BUT WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG EVAPORATIVE COOLING AT LOW-LEVELS RESULTING A FAVORABLE PROFILES FOR SNOW. COMBINED WITH COLD ADVECTION...PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW BETWEEN 03-06Z WITH RAIN-SNOW LINE ADVANCING SEWD TOWARD FAR SERN MO AND FAR SRN IL LATE TONIGHT. ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY LEAD TO BURSTS OF HEAVY SNOW BY 06Z ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA AS MARGINAL INSTABILITY AROUND LIT /MUCAPE 100 J/KG/ ADVECTS NEWD DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ..BANACOS.. 12/22/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...SGF... 36509247 36559290 36659306 36849285 37099248 37459183 37879065 38408924 38418886 38438806 38188803 37738824 37328872 37168912 36509027 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Dec 22 00:44:57 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 21 Dec 2004 19:44:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412220047.iBM0lMa0031007@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 220046 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220046 ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-220245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2557 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0646 PM CST TUE DEC 21 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ARKLATEX CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 220046Z - 220245Z ...THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION... THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED ALONG WRN EDGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE PLUME...IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF SFC FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS ROOTED IN/NEAR THE BOUNDARY LAYER BASED ON 00Z SOUNDING DATA FROM FWD/SHV. LATEST DIAGNOSTIC FIELDS SUGGEST MARGINAL CLOUD LAYER LAPSE RATES ARE YIELDING MUCAPES ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG. LARGE SCALE WARM ADVECTION SHOULD MAINTAIN THIS ACTIVITY WITH A TENDENCY FOR ADDITIONAL...SLIGHTLY ELEVATED...UPDRAFTS TO EVOLVE NEWD INTO AR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS THIS REGION GIVEN THE THERMAL PROFILES OBSERVED. ..DARROW.. 12/22/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...HGX...FWD... 31889578 33619488 34849347 34379253 32799337 31169468 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Dec 22 05:46:37 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 22 Dec 2004 00:46:37 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412220549.iBM5n3kZ020377@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 220545 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220544 OKZ000-TXZ000-221145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2558 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1144 PM CST TUE DEC 21 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN TX PANHANDLE...TX SOUTH PLAINS NEWD INTO SWRN OK CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 220544Z - 221145Z HVY SNOW WITH HOURLY ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 1 INCH ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 06-09Z OVER THE SRN TX PANHANDLE/FAR NWRN TX...AND BETWEEN 09-12Z OVER SWRN OK. THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW IS ANTICIPATED TO BE ROUGHLY 20 MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE PVW TO CDS TO LAW DURING THIS PERIOD. RADAR RETURNS FROM KAMA INDICATES LOW-MID LEVEL SATURATION WAS OCCURRING FAIRLY QUICKLY AS MID LVL LOW ROTATES OUT OF NM. THIS TREND SHOULD SUPPORT SNOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SWRN TX PANHANDLE/NRN TX SOUTH PLAINS REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STRONGEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH DEFORMATION ZONE IN THE 700-600 MB LAYER COINCIDENT WITH THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF HVY SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AS THE MID LEVEL LOW MIGRATES FROM CENTRAL NM INTO THE SERN TX PANHANDLE BY 12Z. MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IS ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN AS STRONG MID LEVEL SPEED MAX OVER SRN NM/FAR WRN TX ROTATES NEWD INTO NWRN TX. AXIS OF STRONGEST MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING SHOULD DEVELOP ROUGHLY ALONG THE MID LEVEL LOW PATH FROM NEAR LBB TO CDS TO LAW THROUGH 12Z. 05Z SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT SFC DEWPT DEPRESSIONS REMAIN FROM 10-15 DEG F WHICH ALONG WITH ABOUT A 100-150 MB DEEP DRY LAYER ABOVE SFC SHOULD LIMIT INITIAL DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSITY OF SNOW UNDER THE STRONG MID LEVEL FORCING. DESPITE A CONTINUATION OF LOW LVL DRY AIR ADVECTING IN ON NELY SFC WINDS...SUFFICIENTLY STRONG PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OFFSET THE DRYING WHICH WILL SUPPORT HVY SNOWFALL AT THE SFC WITHIN 1-2 HOURS OF LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPMENT. DEGREE OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH BANDED PRECIP ALONG WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7 DEG C/KM WILL SUPPORT CONVECTIVE SNOWFALL RATES AROUND 1 INCH/HR. ..CROSBIE.. 12/22/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA... 34870112 34580237 34240284 33930284 33720231 33910062 34329819 34919822 35069945  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Dec 25 00:34:20 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 24 Dec 2004 19:34:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412250036.iBP0aoFN001247@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 250036 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250035 TXZ000-250630- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2573 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0635 PM CST FRI DEC 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...DEEP SOUTH TX CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION VALID 250035Z - 250630Z A MIXTURE OF SLEET AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. HRLY SNOWFALL RATES AROUND 0.50 IN/HR ARE EXPECTED. BROAD AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES WITH CONVECTIVE SHOWERS BREAKING OUT. 00Z CRP SOUNDING CONFIRMS CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY ROOTED NEAR 700 MB WITH SUB-ZERO TEMPERATURES BELOW SO THUNDER SLEET/SNOW WILL CONTINUE. 00Z CRP AND BRO SOUNDINGS SHOW WARM LAYER ALOFT NEAR 700 MB...BUT THIS LAYER WILL COOL THROUGH THE EVENING AS TROUGH APPROACHES FROM WEST. LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL ALSO INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AND WILL HELP ORGANIZE PRECIPITATION INTO SW-NE ORIENTED BANDS. THE HEAVIEST RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE FROM 02-05Z NRN AND WRN AREAS...AND FROM 05-09Z SERN AREAS INCLUDING BRO. ..JEWELL.. 12/25/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO... 27039927 27399917 28039903 28719825 28749728 28309661 27429730 26769744 25939718 25969761 26079819 26389892 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Dec 25 05:50:33 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 25 Dec 2004 00:50:33 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412250553.iBP5r3JV007256@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 250552 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250551 TXZ000-251045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2574 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1151 PM CST FRI DEC 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN TX THROUGH THE COASTAL BEND CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 250551Z - 251045Z ...HEAVY SNOW RATES OF 1-2"/HR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 09Z WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVERNIGHT... NARROW AXIS OF HEAVY SNOW HAS DEVELOPED FROM AROUND BAY CITY SW TO VICTORIA. RECENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THIS BAND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE PRODUCING MOD/HEAVY SNOW BEFORE DIMINISHING BETWEEN 09-12Z. UPPER LOW CIRCULATION NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS ROUGHLY 120 NM WSW LRD AND WILL MOVE TO NEAR CRP BY 12Z. THIS WILL PLACE THE MIDDLE/UPPER COASTAL PLAIN IN THE STRONGEST PVA ZONE AND...CORRESPONDINGLY...THE AREA WITH THE STRONGEST UVV. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SUPPORT HEAVY SNOW RATES GIVEN A DEEP DENDRITIC ZONE AND STRONG DYNAMICAL LIFT. FARTHER SOUTH...MULTIPLE TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS PRESENT ON THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR BRO/PIL WILL RESULT IN A MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW. ..TAYLOR.. 12/25/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...BRO... 29459635 29039739 28019879 26219850 25919721 27259742 27949702 28609597 28889534 29189484 29499502 29709522 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Dec 25 06:32:16 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 25 Dec 2004 01:32:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412250634.iBP6Ykwa021407@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 250634 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250633 MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-251230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2575 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1233 AM CST SAT DEC 25 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN UPPER COASTAL PLAIN OF SE TX/SRN LA CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION VALID 250633Z - 251230Z ...POTENTIAL FOR SNOW/SLEET DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN LA BEFORE 12Z... LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS FREEZING LINE EXTENDS FROM OCH/JAS/ARA/HSA AS OF 06Z. RECENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING ALOFT...WITH PRECIPITATION BEING REPORTED AT THE SFC AS FAR EAST AS NEW ORLEANS. WITH UPSTREAM VORT MAX QUICKLY APPROACHING THE AREA...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TIME BEFORE LOW LEVELS BECOME SATURATED. CONVECTIVE CELLS ARE PRECIPITATING INTO THE LOWER LAYERS...VIA A SEEDER/FEEDER TYPE PROCESS AND EFFECTIVELY COOLING/MOISTENING THE LAYER. CURRENT DEWPOINTS ARE LOW...GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 20S WITH WETBULB ZERO TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING AS WELL. 00Z ETA IS ALREADY TOO SLOW IN DEVELOPING THE WAA PRECIPITATION FIELD...GIVEN CURRENT RADAR/SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES YIELD MAINLY SNOW WITH POSSIBLY SOME SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN MIXING IN. HOWEVER THE COMBINATION OF STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND STRONG DYNAMICAL FORCING SHOULD COOL THE COLUMN SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT ALL FROZEN PRECIPITATION. ..TAYLOR.. 12/25/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...HGX... 29469462 29939495 30679418 30839338 30819179 30739068 30498969 30198901 29338950 29209050 29649275 29789320 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Dec 25 12:52:06 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 25 Dec 2004 07:52:06 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412251254.iBPCsawn013006@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 251252 SWOMCD SPC MCD 251252 ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-251745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2576 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0652 AM CST SAT DEC 25 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LA/SRN MS/EXTREME SW AL CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION VALID 251252Z - 251745Z ...POTENTIAL FOR SNOW/SLEET/FZRA ACROSS PORTIONS OF SERN LA INTO SRN MS... VIGOROUS UPPER LOW IS NOW MOVING NEWD AWAY FROM SERN TX COAST...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW JUST ABOUT ENDED ACROSS THE TX MIDDLE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE RECORD AMOUNTS OF SNOW FELL OVERNIGHT. MAIN PRECIP BAND HAS REMAINED OFFSHORE...LIMITING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SLEET/SNOW TO SRN LA THUS FAR. 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDING AT LCH SHOWS SIGNIFICANT DRY LAYER FROM THE SFC-800MB. IF THE ETA/RUC QPF FORECASTS ARE CORRECT...THEN THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE LIMITING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW OR EVEN ICE ACCUMULATION FARTHER INLAND. HOWEVER...UPPER LOW IS STILL WINDING UP AS IT EXITS S TX...AND RECENT RADAR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT BAND OF HEAVIER PRECIP EXTENDING FROM VERMILLION BAY SWWD WILL TRANSLATE INTO SRN LA OR THAT ANOTHER BAND WILL EVOLVE. TEMPERATURE FORECASTS AT 850MB WILL MAINLY BE ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA WHICH WOULD LIMIT SNOW POTENTIAL. CURRENT SFC TEMPS ARE AT OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MOST OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...AND WITH LOW DEWPOINTS AND WET BULB TEMPS HOVERING JUST BELOW FREEZING...SFC TEMPERATURES ARE NOT LIKELY TO RISE MUCH...SO FZRA IS A DEFINITE CONCERN. IF STRONG DYNAMIC COOLING CAN ERODE THE WARMER AIR JUST ABOVE THE SFC...A BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW/SLEET COULD DEVELOP NEAR PTN/MOB PARTICULARLY AFTER 18Z AS DEPICTED BY THE LATEST RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS/PTYPE. ..TAYLOR.. 12/25/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH... 31188776 30679081 30029260 29349266 29169172 29218968 29608845 30758739  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Dec 25 18:50:24 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 25 Dec 2004 13:50:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412251852.iBPIqrJG027565@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 251852 SWOMCD SPC MCD 251851 FLZ000-252045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2577 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1251 PM CST SAT DEC 25 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 251851Z - 252045Z SEVERE TSTM PROBABILITIES WILL BE INCREASING RAPIDLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/MOVE INTO PARTS OF SRN FL WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS/TORNADOES. A WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY LATE AFTERNOON. PRESSURE FALLS HAVE BEEN INCREASING ACROSS SRN FL AND 18Z MESOANALYSIS/WEBCAMS INDICATE THAT MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS HAS SPREAD INLAND PAST THE KEYS AND INTO INLAND MONROE/BROWARD COUNTIES. CONTINUED HEATING SHOULD ALLOW THE WARM FRONT TO JUMP TO NAPLES-NORTH OF VERO BEACH LINE BY 21Z. 18Z SPECIAL RAOBS FROM KMFL/KEYW PORTRAY THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INCREASE WELL AND AIR MASS HAS CONTINUED TO DESTABILIZE WITH CURRENT MLCAPES 1000-1500 J/KG. MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE SOMEWHAT POOR...AND SUGGESTS THAT WARM SECTOR CUMULUS DEVELOPING VCNTY WARM FRONT ATTM MAY TAKE A WHILE TO GROW INTO TSTMS. BUT...ISOLD TSTMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. 18Z SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATED THAT THE LOW/DEEP LAYER SHEAR HAS BECOME FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS GIVEN A STORM. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD ONLY INCREASE INTO THE EVENING AND GIVEN INFLUX OF RICH TROPICAL AIR MASS...TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY TSTMS THAT FORMS...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE WARM FRONT. OTHERWISE...LARGE COMPLEX OF TSTMS 140 NM WEST OF NAPLES IS MOVING EWD AT 30 KTS AND EXTRAPOLATION HAS THIS MCS TO THE SWRN FL COAST BY 22-23Z. VSBL SATELLITE SHOWS CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS DEVELOPING SWD ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND THESE ARE LIKELY TO MATURE INTO TSTMS BY EVENING. THUS...EXPECT THAT A LINEAR MCS WILL EVOLVE AND MOVE EWD SWRN FL WITH DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL INCREASING AFTER 22-23Z. SUPERCELLS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS LINE AS WELL WITH THREATS FOR ISOLD TORNADOES. ..RACY.. 12/25/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW... 26157994 25818029 25558069 25318136 25588182 26188211 26538207 27128131 27698037 27147990 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Dec 25 20:39:31 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 25 Dec 2004 15:39:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412252041.iBPKfwYq030041@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 252041 SWOMCD SPC MCD 252041 FLZ000-252145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2578 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0241 PM CST SAT DEC 25 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...S FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 252041Z - 252145Z RECENT LIGHTNING STRIKE DENSITY AND SATELLITE LOOPS SUGGEST THAT TSTMS HAVE WEAKENED ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/WARM FRONT OFFSHORE SWRN FL. THE WEAKENING TREND IS PROBABLY DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER THE WRN GULF IS BEGINNING TO TURN MORE NELY WITH TIME...LIMITING THE LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS AS FAR S AS SRN FL. TSTMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING SWD ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH AND WILL APPROACH SWRN FL EARLY THIS EVENING. AIR MASS HAS DESTABILIZED AS WARM AND MOIST MARITIME BOUNDARY LAYER HAS SURGED NWD INTO SRN FL THIS AFTERNOON AND THE SEVERE THREATS /DAMAGING WINDS-ISOLD TORNADOES/ WILL REMAIN. GIVEN THE RECENT WEAKENING TREND...WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF ON ORIGINAL THINKING OF A WW ISSUANCE BY 21Z. IF/WHEN CONVECTION BEGINS TO BECOME STRONGER...WW MAY BE REQUIRED THIS EVENING. ..RACY.. 12/25/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW... 26558205 27378029 27027969 25947978 25578051 25258162 25748237 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Dec 26 00:41:24 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 25 Dec 2004 19:41:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412260043.iBQ0hpd2004930@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 260043 SWOMCD SPC MCD 260042 FLZ000-260245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2579 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0642 PM CST SAT DEC 25 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH FLORIDA INCLUDING THE KEYS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 260042Z - 260245Z WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IN REMAINING FAVORABLE AIR MASS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS. AT THIS TIME...A WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE TWO COUNTY AREA. RADAR SHOWS SOME SHEAR EXISTING IN A SUPERCELL FORMED BY A RECENT MERGER ABOUT 25 MILES N OF EYW. THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING THROUGH MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR WITH MUCAPE JUST BELOW 1800 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR BETWEEN 45-50 KT. SFC OBS INDICATE SLY FLOW OF 10-15 KT FROM MARATHON UP TOWARDS MIAMI. THUS...POTENTIAL EXISTS NEXT FEW HOURS FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE STORMS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO ACROSS THE PENINSULA COUNTIES OF MONROE AND MIAMI-DADE. ..MCCARTHY.. 12/26/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...EYW... 25148169 25378137 25888068 26068024 25718004 25168012 24878042 24698108 24378183 24378209 24828209 25088187 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Dec 26 06:29:58 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 26 Dec 2004 01:29:58 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412260632.iBQ6WOwW019740@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 260631 SWOMCD SPC MCD 260631 NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-261230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2580 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1231 AM CST SUN DEC 26 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL GA/SC/ERN NC/SRN VA CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION VALID 260631Z - 261230Z ...MAJOR FREEZING RAIN/SLEET EVENT DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MIDLANDS OF SC/PIEDMONT OF NC WITH SLEET/SLOW LIKELY WRN FRINGE OF PRECIP AREA... CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...AT TIMES MIXING WITH SLEET WITH SLEET/SNOW IN AREAS FARTHER ENTRENCHED INTO THE COLD AIR. LATEST SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW WIDESPREAD HEAVIER PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE INTO SERN AL/SRN GA...LIKELY INDICATIVE OF THE STRONGER SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXIT REGION OF AN ADJACENT 120KT UPPER JET. AS THE AREA OF LIFT SPREADS NEWD OVER THE COLD ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE AT THE SFC...WIDESPREAD FZRA WILL DEVELOP FROM GA THROUGH THE MIDLANDS OF SC. LATEST RUC SFC OBSERVATIONAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE WET BULB ZERO LINE FROM NEAR MCN/TBR...WHILE FREEZING TEMPS AT THE SFC ARE GENERALLY NORTH OR WEST OF A GSP/HRJ/FKN LINE. SINCE LITTLE ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...ANY POINTS NORTH OF THE CURRENT POSITION OF THE WET BULB ZERO LINE WILL BE AT RISK FOR FZRA ONCE PRECIPITATION BEGINS. 00Z OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM GSO / GREENSBORO NC / HAS A PROFILE COMPLETELY BELOW FREEZING...WHICH SUGGESTS SNOW IS THE MOST LIKELY PRECIPITATION TYPE ONCE SATURATION OCCURS. ASSUMING GSO IS REPRESENTATIVE OF THE AIRMASS SWWD INTO SC...IT IS LIKELY THAT SLEET AND SNOW WILL BE THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS MOST OF NC...AND WEST OF COLUMBIA SC. FOR EXAMPLE...PFC SOUNDINGS FROM THE ETA INDICATE LOCATIONS SUCH AS RDU/FAY WILL EXPERIENCE ALL SNOW...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES GIVEN BANDED STRUCTURES OBSERVED ON CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY. FZRA IS ALREADY BEING REPORTED AT COLUMBIA SC...AND THIS SEEMS LIKELY SWWD TO MCN. ..TAYLOR.. 12/26/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC... 36937711 36097933 32668469 32058409 33188037 34977772 35977653 36507647 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Dec 26 12:57:14 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 26 Dec 2004 07:57:14 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412261259.iBQCxdqo011426@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 261259 SWOMCD SPC MCD 261258 NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-261900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2581 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0658 AM CST SUN DEC 26 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SC/CNTRL AND ERN NC/SE VA CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION VALID 261258Z - 261900Z ...SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OF THE CAROLINAS... LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS COOLING CLOUD TOPS ACROSS MUCH OF NC/SE VA...LIKELY MARKING THE REGION OF ENHANCED ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS. HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS OF FZRA WILL OCCUR ALONG A NARROW DEFORMATION BAND WHICH HAS SET UP ROUGHLY ALONG A AGS/FAY/ASJ LINE. 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS FROM MHX/CHS CONFIRM A DEEP WARM LAYER ATOP A SHALLOW SUBFREEZING AIRMASS. WITH SLIGHT WAA EXPECTED TO OCCUR AS 850MB LOW TRACKS NEWD ALONG THE COAST...MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD REMAIN FZRA...AND THERE COULD BE ANOTHER 0.25" OF LIQUID PRECIP ACROSS CNTRL SC WHERE 0.3-0.5" HAS ALREADY FALLEN. HEAVIEST FZRA TOTALS WILL LIKELY EXTEND FROM AUGUSTA TO COLUMBIA OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER 15Z. FARTHER NORTHEAST TOWARD FAY...PRECIPITATION WILL BE SLEET/SNOW ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL WAA MAY CHANGE SOME OF THE FROZEN PRECIPITATION TO FZRA AFTER 14-15Z BEFORE ENDING BY EARLY AFTN. ..TAYLOR.. 12/26/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE... 37167701 35397929 33398239 32658148 33138032 34417805 35707554 36707601 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Dec 26 20:34:18 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 26 Dec 2004 15:34:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412262036.iBQKakZ0030147@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 262036 SWOMCD SPC MCD 262035 MAZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-270230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2582 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0235 PM CST SUN DEC 26 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN LONG ISLAND / SERN CT / RI / SERN MA CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 262035Z - 270230Z SNOW RATES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH EVENING. SNOWFALL RATES AROUND 1 IN/HR WILL BE LIKELY...WITH HIGHER RATES OVER RI AND SERN MA. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS ABRUPT CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE BETWEEN ARCTIC AIR MASS INLAND AND WARM ELY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. DEPTH OF WARM AIR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER SHALLOW AS FORECAST BY LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS...WITH LAPSE RATES COOLING RAPIDLY ABOVE THIS LAYER. FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING BETWEEN 700-600 MB WILL PERSIST AND STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE AREA...WITH RUC MODEL SUGGESTING PRECIPITATION WILL EXPAND NWWD INTO CT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT THIS LIFTING ZONE TO BE COINCIDENT WITH FAVORABLE TEMPERATURE RANGE FOR DENDRITIC GROWTH...THUS MDT TO HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED. THE HEAVIEST RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 22-02Z FOR ERN LONG ISLAND...ERN CT...NEWD TOWARD BOSTON. FARTHER SE...HEAVIER SNOW RATES ARE ALREADY MATERIALIZING OVER RI AND PORTIONS OF SERN MA AROUND TAUNTON. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO SNOW FARTHER E OVER THE CAPE WHERE SURFACE WARM LAYER EXISTS...DUE TO COOLING FROM ABOVE AS FROZEN PRECIPITATION FALLS. ..JEWELL.. 12/26/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX... 40777269 41257267 41517248 41987156 42417101 42287089 42237076 41967058 41837044 42117026 42177017 41766987 41656994 41387047 40987193 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Dec 27 05:56:29 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 27 Dec 2004 00:56:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412270558.iBR5wqNv012007@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 270558 SWOMCD SPC MCD 270557 MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-271100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2583 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1157 PM CST SUN DEC 26 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CT/RI/ERN MA/SERN NH/ERN ME CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW AND NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS VALID 270557Z - 271100Z HEAVY SNOW RATES NEAR 1-2"/HR WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF RHODE ISLAND/CAPE COD AND COASTAL ME. IN ADDITION...SUSTAINED SFC WINDS OF 15-25 MPH WITH MUCH HIGHER GUSTS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST WILL CREATE NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. RAPID CYCLOGENESIS IS ONGOING S OF NOVA SCOTIA WITH 3-4 MB/HR PRESSURE FALLS NOTED FROM LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS. WITH A NEARLY 1040 MB ARCTIC HIGH CENTERED JUST EAST OF HUDSON BAY...THIS IS CREATING A VERY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH 50 KT SFC WINDS REPORTED AT SOME BUOY LOCATIONS. LATEST VAD WIND PROFILER DATA FROM BOSTON SHOWS 50 KT AROUND 1 KM...SO MAIN CONCERN FOR OVERNIGHT WILL BE NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ALONG WITH HEAVY SNOW. AT LEAST 6-8" OF SNOW HAS ALREADY FALLEN...WITH SEVERAL MORE INCHES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. LONG RADAR LOOP FROM LAST 8 HOURS OR SO SUGGESTS HEAVIEST SNOW IS ENDING FOR LONG ISLAND...WITH HEAVIEST SNOW BAND NOW EXTENDING FROM CAPE COD TO JUST EAST OF BHB. ALTHOUGH THIS AXIS MAY REMAIN A BIT OFFSHORE...IT CERTAINLY APPEARS THAT HEAVY SNOW RATES OF 1-2"/HR WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF E COASTAL ME. STRONG FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 650-750 MB LAYER SEEMS TO BE WELL CORRELATED TO AXIS OF HEAVY SNOW ON RADAR...AND THIS IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z. LATEST RUC GUIDANCE INDICATES SNOW RATES UP TO 2"/HR POSSIBLE ASSUMING A 10:1 RATIO...AND THE RATIO WILL ACTUALLY BE LARGER THAN THAT GIVEN ARCTIC TEMPERATURES. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL LIKELY BE ENDING BETWEEN 09-12Z...BUT STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE MORNING CREATING DANGEROUS BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW AND/OR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS. ..TAYLOR.. 12/27/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...OKX... 45396755 44177003 42837194 40847292 40777166 41156991 42716885 43396821 44076771 44966669 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Dec 28 12:46:50 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 28 Dec 2004 07:46:50 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412281249.iBSCn7r2018205@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 281248 SWOMCD SPC MCD 281248 CAZ000-281645- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2584 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0648 AM CST TUE DEC 28 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN SIERRA NEVADA OF CA...ABOVE 5500 FT CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 281248Z - 281645Z HEAVY SNOW RATES TO 2"/HR WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SRN SIERRA NEVADA OF CA DURING THE 15-21Z PERIOD. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER SLIGHTLY TO BETWEEN 5500-6000 FT WITH ONSET OF HEAVY SNOW. AT 12Z...WV IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN LARGE...SLOW-MOVING TROUGH OFF THE CA COAST AND 110-120KT 300MB JET EXIT REGION ACROSS NRN BAJA CA AND FAR SRN CA. STRONG CLOUD TOP COOLING IS EVIDENT ACROSS THE SRN SIERRA MTNS. FRONTAL PRECIPITATION BAND EXTENDING FROM THE NRN SACRAMENTO VALLEY SWD ACROSS THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND INTO THE L.A. BASIN WILL TRANSLATE SLOWLY EWD INTO THE SRN SIERRA MTNS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THROUGH 21Z...700MB FLOW OF 30-35KT GRADUALLY VEERS TO SWLY WHICH WILL STRENGTHEN OROGRAPHIC LIFTING ON WRN SLOPES. PRESENCE OF 700-500MB LAPSE RATES AROUND 7 C/KM AND AMPLE MOISTURE SHOULD FAVOR EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE SNOW WITH SNOW RATES UP TO 2"/HR LIKELY WITH CORE OF FRONTAL PRECIPITATION BAND. ETA MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM 28/06Z RUN INDICATE SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL SLOWLY TO BETWEEN 5500-6000 FT THROUGH 21Z...WITH LOWEST SNOW LEVELS LIKELY IN BURSTS OF HEAVY SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION AND STRONGEST OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT. ..BANACOS.. 12/28/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...VEF...REV...HNX...STO... 37811893 37201852 36111813 35801818 35611831 35631864 36501916 37051961 37562011 37932057 38432082 38632063 38772013 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Dec 28 18:34:37 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 28 Dec 2004 13:34:37 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412281836.iBSIasMQ005670@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 281836 SWOMCD SPC MCD 281836 CAZ000-282230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2585 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1236 PM CST TUE DEC 28 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN SIERRA NEVADA OF CA ABOVE 5000 FT CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 281836Z - 282230Z HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES AS HIGH AS 2 IN/HR WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SRN SIERRA NEVADA OF CA...WITH SNOW LEVELS GRADUALLY LOWERING TO 5000 FT BY LATE AFTERNOON. LATEST WV IMAGERY DEPICTS UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OFF THE CA COAST AROUND 35N/130W...WITH LEADING VORT MAXIMA NEARING THE CA COAST INVOF CHANNEL ISLANDS. STRONGLY DIFFLUENT REGIME/EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET OVERSPREADING CA...WITH MOIST PLUME ADVECTING NEWD ACROSS SRN CA. AS PORTRAYED IN RUC SOUNDINGS/REGIONAL VWPS...MID LEVEL SSW WINDS OF 50 KTS OR GREATER ARE CONTRIBUTING TO STRONG UPSLOPE/OROGRAPHIC FORCING FOR HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE SRN SIERRA NEVADA OF CA. IN ADDITION TO OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT...UPSTREAM STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.0 C/KM -- AS EVIDENT IN 12Z VBG RAOB -- AND PROXIMITY OF OBSERVED LIGHTNING SUGGEST CONVECTIVE PRESENCE WILL LIKELY LOCALLY ENHANCE SNOW RATES THIS AFTERNOON. IN ACCORDANCE WITH OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...12Z ETA/15Z RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SNOW LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO NEAR 5000 FT THROUGH 00Z. ..GUYER.. 12/28/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...VEF...REV...HNX...STO... 37801899 37411855 36831815 36131792 35751832 35981869 36581896 37161951 37652009 37982034 38372058 38642056 38782012 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Dec 28 18:46:08 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 28 Dec 2004 13:46:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412281848.iBSImQet010943@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 281847 SWOMCD SPC MCD 281847 CAZ000-282015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2586 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1247 PM CST TUE DEC 28 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...COASTAL SRN CA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 281847Z - 282015Z A FEW STRONGER CELLS -- POSSIBLY LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS -- NOW OFFSHORE S OF SBA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL AND AFFECT PARTS OF COASTAL SRN CA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. LIMITED SEVERE THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE. LATEST RADAR SHOWS SEVERAL STRONGER CELLS APPROACHING SRN CA -- ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER VORT MAX CENTER. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD HAS VEERED / SHEAR WEAKENED...AND ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY REMAINS MINIMAL AT BEST...SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS OFFSHORE CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SEMI-ORGANIZED CONVECTION / THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS JUST S OF THE CHANNEL ISLANDS HAVE SHOWN PERSISTENT LIGHTNING AND POSSIBLY SOME WEAK ROTATION PER LATEST VELOCITY DATA FROM AREA RADARS. THOUGH SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN LIMITED...GUSTY WINDS OR A WATERSPOUT / BRIEF TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE CHANNEL ISLANDS -- AND PERHAPS ALONG IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS OF SRN SAN LUIS OBISPO / SANTA BARBARA / VENTURA COUNTIES IN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. ..GOSS.. 12/28/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOX...MTR... 35622117 35832061 34902016 34271838 34071851 33872011 34082080 34502109 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Dec 29 07:21:27 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 29 Dec 2004 02:21:27 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412290723.iBT7NgBZ001443@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 290723 SWOMCD SPC MCD 290723 CAZ000-290930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2587 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0123 AM CST WED DEC 29 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN CA COAST CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 290723Z - 290930Z ...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS MAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OFF THE SRN CA COAST... FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LAPSE RATES HAVE STEEPENED CONSIDERABLY BELOW 600MB ALONG THE SRN CA COAST OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. THIS IS SUPPORTED WITH RECENT INCREASE IN CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY OVER MARITIME BOUNDARY LAYER. DESPITE MARGINAL INSTABILITY...IT APPEARS INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT/STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WILL PROVE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR NEAR SFC-BASED CONVECTION AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH. LATEST THINKING IS ISOLATED SUPERCELLS MAY GENERATE LOCALLY STRONG WINDS...OR PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL OR BRIEF TORNADO. OTHERWISE...ADDITIONAL UPSTREAM CONVECTION MAY EVOLVE INTO A LOOSELY ORGANIZED LINE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY SEVERE WINDS AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST. ..DARROW.. 12/29/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGX...LOX... 34031850 34271786 33501710 32681688 32371757 32481796 33211821 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Dec 30 00:41:39 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 29 Dec 2004 19:41:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412300043.iBU0hpRG024159@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 300043 SWOMCD SPC MCD 300042 CAZ000-300545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2588 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0642 PM CST WED DEC 29 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN CA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 3500 FT CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 300042Z - 300545Z SNOW EXPECTED TO STEADILY INCREASE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT ABOVE 3500 FT -- NAMELY DURING/AFTER 03Z-06Z TIMEFRAME -- FROM THE KLAMATH MOUNTAINS/CASCADE RANGE INTO THE NRN SIERRAS OF NRN CA. HEAVY SNOWFALL WITH RATES OF 1.5-2.0 IN/HR...ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG GUSTY WINDS...WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. WITHIN ERN PACIFIC UPPER TROUGH...VORTICITY/SPEED MAXIMA AND FRONTAL BAND EVIDENT IN WV/IR IMAGERY OFF THE NRN CA COAST. WITH EWD PROGRESSION OF SYSTEM...DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT COUPLED WITH SWLY MID LEVEL WINDS OF 50-70 KTS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS NRN CA. SUBSEQUENT INCREASE OF HEAVY SNOWFALL EXPECTED THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT ACROSS MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF NRN CA...ESPECIALLY ON SW FACING SLOPES OWING TO STRONG OROGRAPHIC COMPONENT. FURTHERMORE CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO LOCALLY HEAVIER SNOW RATES...PER STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.0 C/KM OR GREATER /E.G. 00Z MFR RAOB/...AND OBSERVED LIGHTNING OFFSHORE/RECENT ISOLD CG STRIKES OVER THE NRN SACRAMENTO VALLEY. 18Z ETA/21Z RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN QUASI-STEADY IN THE 3500-4000 FT RANGE THROUGH 09Z...RELATIVELY HIGHEST OVER THE NRN SIERRAS. ..GUYER.. 12/30/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...REV...MFR...STO...EKA... 41632121 39932044 38551993 38322041 39702154 40252163 40872192 40962226 40822262 40462281 39782256 39682292 39952325 41092368 41452378 41872342 41892236 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Dec 30 06:16:18 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 30 Dec 2004 01:16:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412300618.iBU6ITCO008052@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 300617 SWOMCD SPC MCD 300617 CAZ000-301015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2589 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1217 AM CST THU DEC 30 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...MTNS OF NRN CA ABOVE 3000 FT CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 300617Z - 301015Z HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INLAND AFFECTING THE MT SHASTA AREA SEWD ACROSS THE NRN SIERRA NEVADA THROUGH 12Z. HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES OF 2"/HR ARE EXPECTED WITH SNOW LEVELS RANGING FROM NEAR 3000 FT ACROSS FAR NRN CA TO 3500 FT ACROSS THE NRN SIERRA MTNS. AT 06Z...IR IMAGERY REVEALS A POTENT MID-LEVEL VORT CENTER JUST OFF THE SWRN ORE COAST...AND NEGATIVE TILT TROUGH AXIS WITH FRONTAL PRECIPITATION BAND EXTENDING SEWD ACROSS NWRN CA INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEYS. STRONG COLD ADVECTION REGIME IS INFERRED OFF THE CA COAST WITH 500MB TEMPERATURES BETWEEN -28 AND -30C. SCATTERED LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS NWRN CA AND THE OFFSHORE WATERS WHERE ETA MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE 700-500MB LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.5 C/KM. HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASINGLY AFFECT THE COASTAL RANGE AND MT SHASTA AREA ABOVE 3000 FT THROUGH 12Z. PRIMARY FRONTAL PRECIPITATION BAND WILL TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS THE NRN SIERRA MTNS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE 00Z ETA INDICATES INCREASING SWLY 2-3KM FLOW TO 60KT ACROSS THE NRN SIERRAS THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...SUGGESTING STRONG OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT AND POTENTIAL FOR SNOW RATES UP TO 2"/HR...GENERALLY 3500 FT AND ABOVE. ..BANACOS.. 12/30/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...REV...MFR...STO...EKA... 40362277 40042272 39882279 39882304 40152327 40472343 40982351 41332338 41562298 41692255 41752206 41642156 41402139 41102111 40382063 39432015 39092000 38912000 38712014 38752043 39342081 40002119 40322148 40552168 40972183 41132201 41012256 40772277 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Dec 30 06:18:54 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 30 Dec 2004 01:18:54 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412300621.iBU6L53T009249@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 300619 SWOMCD SPC MCD 300618 NDZ000-MTZ000-301015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2590 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1218 AM CST THU DEC 30 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN MT AND WRN ND CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION VALID 300618Z - 301015Z MIXED WINTER PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS N-CENTRAL/ERN MT AND WRN ND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. INITIAL SLEET/FREEZING RAIN SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS MT BETWEEN 06-12Z. POCKETS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND FREEZING DRIZZLE APPEAR LIKELY THROUGH 12Z ACROSS WRN ND. COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE THROUGH 30/12Z ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS REGION. A 994MB SURFACE CYCLONE NEAR SHERIDAN WY WILL DEEPEN NEARLY IN PLACE IN RESPONSE TO STRONG UPPER DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH 300MB JET STREAK EXTENDING FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION NEWD INTO SD BY 12Z. A WARM FRONT WILL STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT ESEWD FROM THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF SD...WITH AN E-W BAND OF 850MB WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPING FROM FAR E-CENTRAL MT ACROSS SRN ND. QUASI-STATIONARY ARCTIC BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACROSS FAR SRN SASKATCHEWAN SEWD INTO NWRN ND AND ARCS NEWD INTO SERN MANITOBA WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THE FAR WRN PORTION OF THE ARCTIC FRONT IS SURGING SWD ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TOWARD GTF AT 0530Z. ALSO...AN INVERTED TROUGH AXIS IS EVIDENT BETWEEN LWT AND GTF. DESPITE RELATIVELY DRY LOW-LEVEL CONDITIONS...INCREASING RADAR TRENDS ARE NOTED ON MOSAIC IMAGERY AT 0530Z FROM NEAR BIL EWD ACROSS SRN ND. INCREASED ISENTROPIC ASCENT WRAPPING WWD JUST NORTH OF THE SURFACE CYCLONE THROUGH ERN MT SHOULD RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET BETWEEN 06-09Z. ADDITIONALLY...INCREASING RADAR TRENDS ARE NOTED IN GTF VICINITY JUST WEST OF INVENTED TROF AXIS AND IN VICINITY OF APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT. SNOW/BLOWING SNOW SHOULD BECOME FOCUSED JUST WEST OF INVERTED TROUGH BY 09Z. ULTIMATELY...AS 700MB LOW DEEPENS ACROSS ERN MT LATE TONIGHT...SUFFICIENT UVV AND DYNAMIC COOLING SHOULD OCCUR TO CHANGE PRECIP TO SNOW BETWEEN 09-12Z ACROSS MUCH OF E-CENTRAL MT. SNOW SHOULD GENERALLY BE OF LIGHT TO MODERATE INTENSITY WITH MAX SNOWFALL RATES IN 0.5-1"/HR RANGE. FURTHER EAST...BAND OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE SHOULD EXIST ALONG I-94 CORRIDOR IN WRN ND. ETA APPEARS TO HAVE INITIALIZED ARCTIC BOUNDARY TOO FAR SOUTH ACROSS ND...AND PREFER 03Z RUC SOLUTION HOLDING SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S IN THIS AREA WITH MARGINAL DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FOR OCCASIONAL FREEZING RAIN THROUGH 12Z. ..BANACOS.. 12/30/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...BIS...BYZ...GGW...TFX... 46260360 46190511 46050738 46070916 46981076 47131172 47431240 48141263 48741194 48971080 48791023 48460992 48060924 48090810 48020619 48100468 48110342 48000198 47690115 47330091 46640087 46370160  From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Dec 30 12:21:17 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 30 Dec 2004 07:21:17 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412301223.iBUCNROJ031410@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 301222 SWOMCD SPC MCD 301222 WIZ000-MIZ000-MNZ000-301615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2591 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0622 AM CST THU DEC 30 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...N-CENTRAL/NRN MN...CENTRAL/NRN WI...AND WRN UPPER MI CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN VALID 301222Z - 301615Z DEVELOPING AXIS OF FREEZING RAIN EXPECTED FROM NEAR MN/ND BORDER ESEWD INTO CENTRAL WI...LIFTING NNEWD AND INTENSIFYING THROUGH 18Z. SIGNIFICANT FREEZING RAIN RATES OF 0.1"/HR POSSIBLE BY LATE MORNING. STRONG 990MB SURFACE CYCLONE CENTERED OVER FAR SERN MT WILL TRACK ENEWD ACROSS THE SRN TIER OF ND THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. SURFACE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER DEFINED FROM NWRN SD ESEWD INTO NWRN IA...WITH 3-4MB/2HR PRESSURE FALL AXIS EVIDENT FROM N-CENTRAL ND SEWD TO WRN WI ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME. FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE DISCUSSION REGION THROUGH 30/18Z AS LEFT EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET MOVES NEWD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY. INCREASING TRENDS ON MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY ARE NOTED WITH INCREASED UVV ACROSS CENTRAL SD TRACKING NEWD. ADDITIONALLY....NEWD MOVING BAND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION EXTENDS ACROSS E-CENTRAL MN TO S-CENTRAL WI ON NRN EDGE OF WARM ADVECTION. THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. INCREASED LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES CONDUCIVE FOR FREEZING RAIN...CONSISTENT WITH RUC AND ETA MODEL SOUNDINGS WARMING 850MB LEVEL TO +4C. SURFACE TEMPERATURES FROM FAR TO BRD TO CWA ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID 20S. THOUGH SOME SLOW WARMING IS LIKELY...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR INCREASING FREEZING RAIN RATES ALONG THIS AXIS LATE THIS MORNING...WITH RATES OF 0.05-0.10"/HR POSSIBLE BY 18Z. THE 09Z RUC INDICATES FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATIONS IN EXCESS OF 0.25" ALONG AN AXIS FROM BRD TO 40 S DLH TO 35 W AUW BETWEEN 15-18Z...WITH FREEZING RAIN AND POSSIBLE SLEET SPREADING NNEWD INTO THE ARROWHEAD AND WRN UPPER MI DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. ..BANACOS.. 12/30/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...MPX...FGF... 45859301 46159407 46389484 46539638 46779667 48329626 47369117 46638936 45918830 44788798 44078845 43618879 43748976 44689132 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Dec 30 13:00:41 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 30 Dec 2004 08:00:41 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412301302.iBUD2pWW012715@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 301301 SWOMCD SPC MCD 301301 CAZ000-301700- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2592 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0701 AM CST THU DEC 30 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/NRN SIERRA MTNS AND FAR NRN MTNS OF CA CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 301301Z - 301700Z VERY HEAVY SNOW...WITH RATES OF 2"/HR...EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL SIERRA MTNS THROUGH 18Z WITH SNOW LEVELS HOLDING AROUND 4000 FT. SNOW WILL BECOME INTERMITTENT AND SHOWERY ACROSS THE MTNS OF FAR NRN CA WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING TO 2500 FT BY 18Z. AT 1230Z...MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE PRIMARY FRONTAL PRECIPITATION BAND EXTENDING FROM SFO NEWD TO BLU AND INTO THE NRN SIERRA MTNS...WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. MODERATE TO HVY SNOW HAS BEEN OBSERVED AT BLUE CANYON SINCE 0530Z. VERY STRONG WLY TO SWLY FLOW IS EVIDENT ON 12Z OAK SOUNDING...WITH 50KTS AT 700MB AND 90KTS AT 500MB. DEEP LAYER SATURATION AND PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 0.75" SUGGEST CONTINUED STRONG AND MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW...PROPAGATING SLOWLY SWD INTO THE CENTRAL SIERRA MTNS THROUGH 18Z. SNOW RATES OF 2"/HR APPEAR LIKELY WITH THIS PRIMARY AXIS OF PRECIPITATION INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH SNOW LEVELS HOLDING AROUND 4000 FT PER RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME LIGHTER AND MORE SHOWERY ACROSS THE MTNS OF FAR NRN CA AS COLD ADVECTION REGIME ADVECTS INLAND BEHIND PRIMARY PRECIPITATION BAND. RUC SOUNDINGS BY 18Z INDICATE SNOW LEVELS AS LOW AS 2500FT IN MT SHASTA VICINITY WITH SOME MINIMAL CAPE AROUND 100 J/KG WHICH WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS AND CONTINUED ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES IN VICINITY OF THE COASTAL RANGES. DESPITE OVERALL DECREASING SNOW RATES...BURSTS OF HEAVY SNOW WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH 18Z ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-TOPPED CONVECTIVE CELLS. ..BANACOS.. 12/30/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...REV...HNX...MFR...STO...EKA... 39212109 38752083 38472067 38122040 37682003 37771917 38751994 39752029 40802077 41382112 41752138 41882200 41842280 41472343 41142356 40522343 40592290 41062255 41172226 41102191 40842167 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Dec 30 18:53:34 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 30 Dec 2004 13:53:34 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412301855.iBUItjBL029685@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 301855 SWOMCD SPC MCD 301854 MNZ000-302130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2593 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1254 PM CST THU DEC 30 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NE/NCNTRL MN CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION VALID 301854Z - 302130Z FREEZING RAIN WITH HOURLY ACCUMULATIONS OF 0.10 IN POSSIBLE WILL PERSIST THROUGH APPROX 21Z ACROSS MUCH OF NE/NCNTRL NM. PRECIP TYPE WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN ACROSS NE MN LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WV IMAGERY DEPICTS NEARLY STACKED LOW ADVANCING EWD THROUGH WRN ND...WHILE LATEST MESOANALYSIS FEATURES WARM FRONT GRADUALLY LIFTING NWD ACROSS SRN MN AND ERN IA/SW WI AT 18Z. LOW LEVEL WARM NOSE CENTERED IN 800-850 MB LAYER...AS EVIDENCE IN 12Z MPX RAOB AND UPSTREAM 12Z OAX/TOP RAOBS...CONTINUES TO ADVECT N/NE AHEAD OF THE WRN ND CYCLONE. GIVEN SHALLOW LAYER OF SUB-FREEZING TEMPS REMAINING ACROSS NE/NCNTRL MN AT MIDDAY...ELEVATED WARM LAYER OF 3-4 DEG C WILL SUPPORT COMPLETE MELTING AND RESULTANT FREEZING RAIN PRECIP TYPE THROUGH APPROX 21Z. THEREAFTER...OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND 15Z RUC/09Z SREF CONSENSUS SUGGESTS CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER NE MN AS BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS ABOVE FREEZING. ..GUYER.. 12/30/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF... 48729439 48689328 48279175 48039006 47868994 47009190 47179343 47319435 47519513 47719547 48169527 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Dec 30 19:02:06 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 30 Dec 2004 14:02:06 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412301904.iBUJ4G0F000872@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 301903 SWOMCD SPC MCD 301903 CAZ000-310000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2594 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0103 PM CST THU DEC 30 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SIERRA MTNS OF CA CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 301903Z - 310000Z HEAVY SNOW /WITH LOCALIZED BLIZZARD CONDITIONS/ EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE SIERRA NEVADAS OF CA...WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 2 IN/HR POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL SIERRAS ABOVE 3500-4000 FT. LATEST IR/WV IMAGERY FEATURES UPPER LOW CENTERED OFF THE OR COAST WITH OCCLUDED/COLD FRONT PROGRESSING EWD THROUGH NRN CA. STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL SWLY WINDS -- E.G. 50-70 KTS AT 600 MB PER 12Z RAOBS/RECENT ACARS DATA -- WILL CONTINUE TO INDUCE MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW/STRONG OROGRAPHIC LIFT -- NAMELY INTO SW FACING SLOPES -- AND HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE SIERRAS. HEAVIEST SNOW WILL LIKELY REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL SIERRAS OWING TO PERSISTENT MOISTURE INFLUX AND PROXIMITY TO STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. IN ACCORDANCE WITH 12Z MFR/REV/OAK RAOBS AND OBSERVED MESONET DATA IN HIGHER TERRAIN...15Z RUC SUGGESTS SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN AROUND 3500 FT ACROSS THE NRN SIERRAS THROUGH 03Z. ACROSS THE CNTRL SIERRAS...SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AROUND 4000-4500 FT...WITH 4500-5000 FT IN THE SRN SIERRAS. ..GUYER.. 12/30/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...REV...HNX...STO... 39962116 39632050 38881998 37961943 37341888 36841863 36491852 36371880 37071935 38002017 38662063 39452116 39792144 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 31 00:46:19 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 30 Dec 2004 19:46:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412310048.iBV0mTbr002451@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 310047 SWOMCD SPC MCD 310047 CAZ000-NVZ000-310515- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2595 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0647 PM CST THU DEC 30 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SIERRA MTNS OF NRN CA CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 310047Z - 310515Z HEAVY SNOW /INCLUDING LOCALIZED BLIZZARD CONDITIONS/ WITH HOURLY ACCUMULATIONS AS HIGH AS 2 IN/HR WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE SIERRA NEVADAS OF CA. LATEST IR/WV IMAGERY FEATURES UPPER LOW PERSISTING IMMEDIATELY OFF THE ORE COAST. OWING TO QUASI-STATIONARY NATURE OF THIS FEATURE...OBSERVATIONAL EVIDENCE SUGGESTS SWLY MOIST UPSLOPE TRAJECTORIES/OROGRAPHIC LIFT INTO THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN HAVE FLUCTUATED LITTLE THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS IS EXPECTED INTO THE OVERNIGHT PER 21Z RUC GUIDANCE... PERSISTENCE OF 40-70 KT SWLY WINDS IN 2 TO 5 KM LAYER /00Z OAK AND REV RAOBS/ WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HEAVY SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE SIERRAS TONIGHT...NAMELY ON SW/W SLOPES. OWING TO DEGREE OF COLD AIR ALOFT...PROXIMITY OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.0 C/KM OR GREATER WILL CONTINUE TO CONVECTIVELY ENHANCE SNOW RATES TONIGHT...INSTABILITY AS FURTHER EVIDENCE BY ISOLD LIGHTNING STRIKES ALONG THE ORE/NRN CA COAST THIS AFTERNOON. 21Z RUC SUGGESTS THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL LARGELY REMAIN UNCHANGED THROUGH 09Z...WITH SNOW LEVELS PERSISTING AROUND 3500 FT ACROSS THE NRN SIERRAS...4000-4500 FT IN THE CNTRL SIERRAS...TO AROUND 5000 FT IN THE FAR SRN SIERRAS. ..GUYER.. 12/31/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...REV...HNX...STO... 40502150 40322064 38891975 37991927 37321891 36841863 36491852 36371880 37071935 38002017 38712058 39452116 40052162 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 31 06:13:46 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 31 Dec 2004 01:13:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412310615.iBV6Frkq014243@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 310615 SWOMCD SPC MCD 310615 CAZ000-NVZ000-311015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2596 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1215 AM CST FRI DEC 31 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SIERRA MTNS OF CA AND ADJACENT AREAS OF FAR WRN NV ABOVE 4000FT CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW AND NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS VALID 310615Z - 311015Z CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR EXTREMELY HEAVY SNOW RATES OF 2-3"/HR ACROSS THE CENTRAL SIERRA MTNS...INCLUDING THE I-80 CORRIDOR AND ADJACENT AREAS OF FAR WRN NV THROUGH 12Z. A SLOW SWD SHIFT OF THE HEAVY SNOW AXIS SHOULD BEGIN BETWEEN 09-12Z. GUSTY WINDS WILL CREATE NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. PERSISTENT LONG WAVE TROUGHING WITH CLOSED 500MB LOW OFF THE ORE COAST REMAINS IN PLACE LATE THIS EVENING...WITH STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR 37N 128W EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE CENTRAL CA COAST AROUND 12Z. THE QUASI-STATIONARY 850MB-700MB BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING FROM ROUGHLY SFO-RNO IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE SLOWLY SWD THROUGH 12Z IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING/DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AXIS OF HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS HAS BEEN COINCIDENT WITH THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE THROUGH THE PAST 12-18HRS...SO A GRADUAL SWD SHIFT OF THE BAND INTO THE CENTRAL/SRN SIERRAS SHOULD OCCUR...PARTICULARLY AS TROUGH APPROACHES THE COAST AFTER 09Z. OTHERWISE...LITTLE SHORT-TERM CHANGE IN FORECAST IN VERY FAVORABLE HEAVY SNOW PATTERN. SWLY 3KM FLOW OF 60KT WITHIN MAIN PRECIPITATION BAND WILL RESULT IN CONTINUATION OF STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT INTO THE CENTRAL SIERRAS. SMALL-SCALE VORTICITY MAX MOVING INLAND ACROSS FAR NWRN CA HAS ENHANCED UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW AND VERTICAL MOTION ALONG AND NORTH OF 140KT 300MB JET AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL CA. DEEP LAYER SATURATION WITH PW VALUES AROUND 0.75" AND EMBEDDED CONVECTION SHOULD SUPPORT 2-3"/HR SNOW RATES...WITH HIGHEST RATES LIKELY ALONG WEST FACING SLOPES. ..BANACOS.. 12/31/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...REV...HNX...STO... 39311957 38231924 37681909 37431933 37662000 38342046 39162073 39792109 40232063 40072006 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 31 12:19:04 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 31 Dec 2004 07:19:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412311221.iBVCLBbw025621@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 311220 SWOMCD SPC MCD 311220 CAZ000-NVZ000-311615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2597 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0620 AM CST FRI DEC 31 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND SRN SIERRA MTNS OF CA ABOVE 4000 FT CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 311220Z - 311615Z AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SWD FROM THE CENTRAL INTO THE SRN SIERRA MTNS THROUGH 31/18Z. EXTREMELY HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES OF 2-3"/HR ARE EXPECTED ALONG WRN SLOPES WITH SNOW LEVELS RANGING FROM 4000-5000 FT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. AT 12Z...IR IMAGERY REVEALS WELL-DEFINED COMMA CLOUD ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG MID-LEVEL VORT MAX CENTERED 100NM SW OF SFO. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SEWD AT 40KTS REACHING THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY BY 18Z. PRE-EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE IN 850-700MB LAYER...WHICH HAS BEEN COINCIDENT WITH LONG-LIVED BAND OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FROM THE CA COAST INLAND ACROSS THE SIERRA MTNS...HAS BEGUN TO SHIFT SWD IN RESPONSE TO DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. HEAVY SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF NORTH OF I-80 AND BECOME INCREASINGLY FOCUSED ACROSS THE SRN SIERRA MTNS DURING THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO. VAD WIND PROFILE AT HANFORD INDICATES VERY STRONG SWLY FLOW OF 50-70KT BETWEEN 2 AND 6KM...WHICH WILL FAVOR STRONG OROGRAPHIC LIFTING INTO THE SRN SIERRA MTNS DURING THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING. ENHANCED UPPER DIVERGENCE WITH APPROACHING VORT MAX IN ADDITION TO AMPLE DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE AND EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO YIELD 2-3"/HR SNOW RATES. SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AREA WIDE WITH PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH AFTER 18Z. ..BANACOS.. 12/31/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...VEF...REV...HNX...STO... 38772067 38962062 39071996 38891972 38161930 37621902 37001840 36241803 36051838 36061875 36531898 37001926 37371965 37661992 37932014 38412045 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 31 18:56:11 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 31 Dec 2004 13:56:11 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412311858.iBVIwJXK010167@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 311857 SWOMCD SPC MCD 311857 UTZ000-WYZ000-IDZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-312300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2598 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1257 PM CST FRI DEC 31 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SRN SIERRA NV NEWD INTO NRN UT/SERN ID CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 311857Z - 312300Z HVY SNOW WILL COME TO AN END BY 20Z OVER THE CENTRAL/SRN SIERRA NEVADA...WHILE DEVELOPING NEWD INTO CENTRAL/ECENTRAL NV. SNOWFALL RATES FROM 1-2 IN/HR WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A 2-3 HR PERIOD ACROSS CENTRAL/NERN NV THROUGH 00Z. SNOWFALL SHOULD INCREASE IN INTENSITY OVER THE NRN WASATCH UT AND THE CARIBOU HIGHLANDS OF SERN ID BETWEEN 21-00Z WITH HRLY RATES OVER 1 IN/HR BY 01Z. ADDITIONALLY...STRONG WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL PRODUCE CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. UPPER VORT MAX OVER THE CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY OF CA WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL/NERN NV THROUGH 00Z. 2+ IN/HR HVY SNOWFALL WILL COME TO AN END OVER THE CENTRAL/SRN SIERRA WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER VORT CENTER. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM 7-7.5 DEG C/KM EVIDENT ON THE 12Z OAK SOUNDING AND RECENT VIS IMAGERY WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE SNOWFALL RATES FROM 1-2 IN/HR AS THIS VORT CENTER PROGRESSES INTO CENTRAL/NERN NV ALONG PREEXISTING MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE. PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE UPPER FEATURES SUGGEST THAT HEAVIEST SNOW SHOULD ONLY LAST FOR 2-3 HOURS AT ANY LOCATION OVER THIS REGION. PER ELKO VWP DATA UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE MAXIMIZED ON SWLY FACING SLOPES OF RANGES ACROSS NV. FARTHER NE ACROSS NRN UT/SERN ID...LOW LEVEL SWLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH APPROACHING TROUGH. SNOW LEVELS INITIALLY STARTING OUT AROUND 5-5.5 KFT THIS AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD LOWER QUICKLY WHEN STRONGER FRONTAL DYNAMICS MOVE INTO THE REGION AFTER 00Z. IN ADDITION THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL OVER NRN UT/SERN ID WILL LIKELY BE DURING THIS TIME..WHEN MAIN UPPER DEFORMATION ZONE AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IN THE 700-600 MB LAYER COMBINES WITH INCREASING WLY LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW. ..CROSBIE.. 12/31/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...RIW...SLC...PIH...VEF...BOI...LKN...REV...HNX... 42991258 40251699 39161816 38251956 37361924 36981825 37551659 38931395 40061167 40681098 43191117 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Dec 1 05:58:28 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 01 Dec 2004 00:58:28 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412010600.iB160VE10707@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 010559 SWOMCD SPC MCD 010559 MIZ000-011000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2494 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1159 PM CST TUE NOV 30 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER MI CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION VALID 010559Z - 011000Z OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS/SHORT TERM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS CNTRL/SRN LOWER MI OVERNIGHT. SNOWFALL RATES MAY REACH 1 IN/HR FOR A FEW HOURS OVERNIGHT...NAMELY THROUGH 09Z ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF LOWER MI...AND 11Z ACROSS ERN LOWER MI EAST OF LAN/AMN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSITIONING E/NE OVER IL/IN ATTM...WITH ATTENDANT 1000 MB SFC LOW CONTINUING TO DEEPEN ACROSS NW OH AT 05Z. IN NW QUADRANT OF CYCLONE...DEFORMATION BAND JUXTAPOSED WITH UPPER JET ENHANCED UVVS SPREADING EWD ACROSS LOWER MI. OVER PAST FEW HOURS...PRECIP TYPE HAS TRANSITIONED TO SNOW AS FAR SOUTH AS BIV/GRR CORRIDOR. IN ACCORDANCE WITH PRECIP TYPE ALGORITHMS...THIS TREND EXPECTED TO SPREAD S/E AS CYCLONE CONTINUES TO ADVANCE NEWD AND COLDER AIR IS ENTRAINED ACROSS LOWER MI. GIVEN ULTIMATE CHANGE OVER TO SNOW...03Z RUC POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS -- IN CONJUNCTION WITH IR SATELLITE DERIVED CLOUD TOP TRENDS -- SUGGEST FAVORABLE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER /650 MB AND HIGHER/ AND NET UVVS MAY SUPPORT SNOW RATES APPROACHING 1 IN/HR FOR A FEW HOURS OVERNIGHT. FURTHERMORE...DEFORMATION/MODEST MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO GENERAL SW-NE ORIENTATION OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL. ..GUYER.. 12/01/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 05-06 UTC... 11-12 UTC...17-18 UTC...AND 23-00 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28 TO ALLOW PARTNERS AND USERS TO BETTER ANTICIPATE THE TIMING OF SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS. ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR... 43748324 43148325 42448390 42008465 41968572 42448603 43118587 43808504 44048367 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Dec 1 12:09:56 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 01 Dec 2004 07:09:56 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412011211.iB1CBvE07617@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 011210 SWOMCD SPC MCD 011210 MEZ000-011715- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2495 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0610 AM CST WED DEC 01 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN ME CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION VALID 011210Z - 011715Z MDT AND/OR POSSIBLY HEAVY WET SNOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NRN ME THIS MORNING. SNOWFALL RATES MAY REACH 1 IN/HR FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS MORNING AMIDST HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN ME. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PORTRAYS FAST MOVING/COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER LAKE ERIE VICINITY. AT 11Z...DEEPENING 992 MB SFC LOW OVER LAKE ERIE PRECEDED BY STRONG PRESSURE FALLS CENTERED OVER UPSTATE NY. AHEAD OF THIS CYCLONE...DPVA/UPPER JET ENHANCED UVVS COMBINED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION/MOISTURE TRANSPORT REGIME WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING PRECIPITATION RATES ACROSS NRN ME...MAINLY IN FORM OF SNOW THIS MORNING. 09Z RUC GUIDANCE/12Z CAR RAOB SUGGESTS LOW LEVEL PROFILES REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF NW/NRN ME. HOWEVER LOW LEVEL WARMING OCCURRING ACROSS DOWNSTATE ME AS EVIDENT IN NWD RETREAT OF 32F SFC WET BULB ZERO LINE OVER PAST FEW HOURS. WITH LOW LEVELS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY COLD THROUGH THE MORNING...STRONG UVVS COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE DENDRITIC PROFILES SUGGEST MDT/POSSIBLY HEAVY WET SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS MORNING IN NRN ME...ALTHOUGH ENCROACHING WARM AIR/LOW SNOW TO LIQUID WATER RATIOS WILL TEND TO LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS. 09Z RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PRECIP TYPE MAY CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX AFTER 18Z ACROSS ALL BUT EXTREME NRN ME /I.E. CAR VICINITY/ OWING TO LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF ADVANCING CYCLONE. ..GUYER.. 12/01/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 05-06 UTC... 11-12 UTC...17-18 UTC...AND 23-00 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28 TO ALLOW PARTNERS AND USERS TO BETTER ANTICIPATE THE TIMING OF SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS. ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX... 47406898 46996776 46096839 45006986 44867035 45107099 45527067 45887035 46616989 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 3 17:25:46 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 03 Dec 2004 12:25:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412031727.iB3HRcE16792@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 031727 SWOMCD SPC MCD 031726 MEZ000-032030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2496 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1126 AM CST FRI DEC 03 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/CENTRAL ME COAST CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 031726Z - 032030Z MESOSCALE REGION OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL AFFECT THE SRN THROUGH CENTRAL ME COASTAL AREAS THROUGH 21Z...WITH DIMINISHING RATES THEREAFTER. STRONG 500MB THERMAL TROUGH AXIS...WITH TEMPERATURES OF -36C...CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS UPSTATE NY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL MOVE OFF THE SRN ME COAST BETWEEN 21-00Z. TWELVE HOUR HEIGHT FALLS OF 120M WERE NOTED AT CHH AND ALB WITH MORNING RAOB DATA...IN ADDITION TO JET STREAK OF 70-80KT PASSING OVER LI AND SRN NEW ENGLAND. COMBINATION OF UPPER DIVERGENCE IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF JET AND PVA CONTRIBUTED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW ACROSS SRN ME THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOW AUGMENTING LARGE-SCALE LIFT CREATING A MESOSCALE REGION OF MOD/HVY SNOWFALL. THE 12Z GYX SOUNDING INDICATED AN 850-500MB LAPSE RATE OF 6.4 C/KM...WHICH THE RUC STEEPENS TO 7.5 C/KM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH A COMBINATION OF ASCENT AND COLD ADVECTION WITH APPROACHING STRONG THERMAL THROUGH. NARROW AND VERY INTENSE 35+DBZ REFLECTIVITY BAND DEVELOPING FROM JUST SOUTH OF LEW TO RKD AND DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHTNING JUST OFF THE SRN ME COAST SUGGESTS THE PRESENCE OF ELEVATED CAPE OR THE RELEASE OF CSI. THESE FACTORS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO VERY LOCALIZED 1-2"/HR SNOWFALL RATES DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ARCTIC AIR MASS AND LOW SURFACE DEWPOINTS OVER INTERIOR ME SHOULD LIMIT THE HEAVY SNOW AREA TO THE COASTAL COUNTIES BEFORE FORCING SHIFTS OFF THE MID ME COAST BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND SNOW TAPERS OFF. ..BANACOS.. 12/03/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 05-06 UTC... 11-12 UTC...17-18 UTC...AND 23-00 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28 TO ALLOW PARTNERS AND USERS TO BETTER ANTICIPATE THE TIMING OF SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS. ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX... 43137023 43377069 43697079 44027050 44436946 44586860 44496817 43996831 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Dec 4 05:15:29 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 04 Dec 2004 00:15:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412040517.iB45HIE06196@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 040516 SWOMCD SPC MCD 040516 WAZ000-041115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2497 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1116 PM CST FRI DEC 03 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN WA CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION VALID 040516Z - 041115Z HVY SNOW WITH 1-1.5 INCH PER HOUR RATES WILL DEVELOP FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE NRN WA CASCADES FROM 07-12Z. DURATION OF HVY SNOW SHOULD BE FROM 3-4 HOURS AS FORCING ONLY GRADUALLY SHIFTS SWD. FARTHER EAST...MDT SNOW WITH HOURLY RATES AROUND 1/2 INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THOSE AREAS OF NERN WA ABOVE 2000 FT BEGINNING BETWEEN 09-12Z. LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN WHERE SFC SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL EXIST BELOW ELEVATED WARM LAYER. RECENT WV IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPACT UPPER TROUGH CENTERED NEAR 50 N 142 W MOVING SEWD AROUND 40 KTS. STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE NOTED BY COOLING CLOUD TOPS ON IR IMAGERY AHEAD OF ASSOCIATED TROUGH SHOULD BEGIN TO APPROACH THE COAST OF WA BETWEEN 06-08Z. AS THIS MOVES INLAND...INCREASING LOW-MID LEVEL SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT MOISTENING LOW LEVELS AND STRONG OROGRAPHIC ASCENT INTO THE NRN CASCADES MTNS STARTING AFTER 08Z. DIGGING NATURE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SUGGESTS FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL LIKELY ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG VERTICAL MOTION IN THE MID LEVELS FAVORING A DEEP LAYER OF VERTICAL MOTION WHICH WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF HVY SNOWFALL RATES THROUGH 12Z. DESPITE INCREASING WARM ADVECTION...SNOW LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 4000 FT. INCREASING ASCENT FURTHER EAST WILL AID IN LOW-MID LEVEL SATURATION AND DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT-MDT PRECIPITATION BETWEEN 09-12Z DOWNWIND OF THE CASCADES ACROSS NERN WA. ELEVATED LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION ZONE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF SEWD MOVING COLD FRONT. ATOP SHALLOW SUB-FREEZING SFC LAYER...THIS WILL SUPPORT A PTYPE OF FREEZING RAIN OVER THE COLUMBIA RIVER BASIN REGION. HOWEVER THE STRENGTH OF THE WLY WINDS IN THIS 850-700 LAYER AND LEE SIDE SHADOWING WILL ALLOW FOR ONLY GRADUAL SATURATION...LIMITING HOURLY AMOUNTS. IN THE MTNS/FOOTHILLS OF NERN WA...WHERE DEEPER COLD AIR LAYER WILL EXIST SNOW WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT PTYPE. LESS LEE SIDE SHADOW EFFECTS AND INCREASING UPSLOPE FLOW WILL SUPPORT MDT SNOW DEVELOPMENT BY 12Z. ..CROSBIE.. 12/04/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 05-06 UTC... 11-12 UTC...17-18 UTC...AND 23-00 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28 TO ALLOW PARTNERS AND USERS TO BETTER ANTICIPATE THE TIMING OF SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS. ATTN...WFO...OTX...PDT...SEW... 48902238 47962298 47432278 47032201 47052148 47011932 47211788 47641707 48901714 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Dec 5 17:00:16 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 05 Dec 2004 12:00:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412051702.iB5H21E02471@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 051701 SWOMCD SPC MCD 051700 CAZ000-052100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2498 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1100 AM CST SUN DEC 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...MTNS OF FAR SRN CA ABOVE 4500FT CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 051700Z - 052100Z PERIOD OF CONVECTIVE SNOWFALL EXPECTED BETWEEN 05/19Z-06/00Z ABOVE 4500FT IN THE MTNS OF SAN DIEGO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTIES IN SRN CA. SNOWFALL RATES BETWEEN 1-2IN/HR ARE LIKELY...PARTICULARLY IN MTNS OF INTERIOR SAN DIEGO COUNTY. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT STRONG OFFSHORE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG SEWD TOWARD THE SRN CA/NRN BAJA CA COAST THIS MORNING. WELL FORMED LEADING WARM CONVEYOR BELT IS AFFECTING COASTAL POINTS AT 17Z...AND STRONG UPPER TROPOSPHERIC DIFFLUENCE IS EVIDENT IN THE CLOUD FIELD ACROSS THE FAR SRN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. UPPER DIVERGENCE SHOULD PROPAGATE SSEWD ACROSS THE MTNS OF SRN CA LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS SUGGEST 500MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -25C WITH CENTER OF OFFSHORE LOW. FRONTAL PRECIPITATION BAND APPROACHING SAN DIEGO COUNTY HAS AN EWD COMPONENT OF MOTION AROUND 15KT...TAKING LEADING EDGE OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE MTNS OF SAN DIEGO COUNTY AND SRN RIVERSIDE COUNTY BETWEEN 19-20Z. EMBEDDED CONVECTION/LIGHTNING IS ONGOING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES AROUND 7C/KM BETWEEN 700-500MB TRANSLATING INLAND WITH COLD UPPER LOW SHOULD PROMOTE CONVECTIVE SNOWFALL AND ISOLATED THUNDER SNOW OVER MTN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. RUC AND ETA MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM 12Z CYCLE SUGGEST SNOW LEVELS AROUND 4500 FT WITH UVV DIMINISHING AROUND 06/00Z AS BAND OF PVA AND LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION MOVES EAST OF THE REGION. SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS LARGELY PARALLEL TO MTNS OF SAN DIEGO COUNTY SUGGESTING ONLY MODEST OROGRAPHIC AUGMENTATION TO LIFT. HOWEVER...DYNAMICS WITH APPROACHING SYSTEM AND PRESENCE OF STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT 4-5 HOURS OF HEAVY SNOW WITH 1-2 IN/HR SNOWFALL RATES LIKELY IN THE MTNS. ..BANACOS.. 12/05/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 05-06 UTC... 11-12 UTC...17-18 UTC...AND 23-00 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28 TO ALLOW PARTNERS AND USERS TO BETTER ANTICIPATE THE TIMING OF SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS. ATTN...WFO...SGX... 32821630 32661634 32661661 32841672 33131677 33431688 33591688 33681685 33751676 33771663 33701646 33541634 33481635 33431641 33181636 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Dec 6 04:50:45 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 05 Dec 2004 23:50:45 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412060453.iB64r2E12986@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 060452 SWOMCD SPC MCD 060452 MIZ000-061045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2499 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1052 PM CST SUN DEC 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN LOWER MI CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION VALID 060452Z - 061045Z A MIX OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND LIGHT TO MDT SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER WCENTRAL LOWER MI BETWEEN 06-09Z AND OVER CENTRAL-SERN LOWER MI BETWEEN 09-12Z. OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE EWD MOVEMENT AND WEAKENING TREND IN THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. STRONG WAA NOTED IN THE 2-4 KM LAYER OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY/WRN GREAT LAKES VWP AND PROFILER DATA HAS AIDED IN HOURLY PRECIPITATION AMTS FROM 0.2-0.3 INCHES. THIS FORCING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT ENEWD INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DE-AMPLIFY...A WEAKENING TREND IN UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND PRECIPITATION AMTS IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR. 04Z SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES THE 0 DEG C ISOTHERM WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR MKG TO NEAR PTK...WITH THE WBZ LINE LOCATED ABOUT 40 MILES SOUTH OF THIS LINE. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND SATURATING/MELTING EFFECTS SHOULD COUNTER EACH OTHER AND LEAVE LIMITED NWD MOVEMENT OF THE FREEZING LINE WHEN PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT. SHALLOW ELEVATED NOSE OF ABOVE FREEZING AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT NEWD TONIGHT NORTH OF THIS FREEZING LINE. WITH THE ONSET OF STRONGEST MID LEVEL LIFT...LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE JUST NORTH OF THE SFC FREEZING ISOTHERM FROM WCENTRAL INTO SERN LOWER MI...WITH A TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW EXPECTED WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT AS SATURATION AND WET BULB COOLING ENSUES. DESPITE WEAKENING MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...STRONG REMNANT FRONTOGENETIC CIRCULATION WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND MAY LEAD TO ONE OR SEVERAL BANDS OF MODERATE SNOWFALL MOVING EWD ACROSS THE AREA IN THE 09-12Z TIME FRAME. ..CROSBIE.. 12/06/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 05-06 UTC... 11-12 UTC...17-18 UTC...AND 23-00 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28 TO ALLOW PARTNERS AND USERS TO BETTER ANTICIPATE THE TIMING OF SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS. ATTN...WFO...DTX...GRR... 43368247 43638368 43878565 43788646 43378648 43098633 42748534 42508347 42538290 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Dec 6 04:52:11 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 05 Dec 2004 23:52:11 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412060454.iB64sXE13936@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 060453 SWOMCD SPC MCD 060453 MIZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-061100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2500 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1053 PM CST SUN DEC 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL/ERN AZ AND SWRN NM ABOVE 5000 FT CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 060453Z - 061100Z HVY SNOW WITH HOURLY RATES FROM 1-2 INCHES WILL DEVELOP AND SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CNTRL/ERN AZ BETWEEN 05-08Z AND OVER SWRN NM BETWEEN 09-12Z. A 2-3 HOUR PERIOD OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR BEFORE DIMINISHING TRENDS ENSUE FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING AFTER 09Z. LATEST IR IMAGERY INDICATED A COMPACT UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER SAN DIEGO MOVING EWD AROUND 20 KTS. STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF ASSOCIATED JET MAX WAS SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION OVER THE DESERTS OF SERN CA/SWRN AZ. IN ADDITION TO THE WELL PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL LIFT...AS THE UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EWD OVERNIGHT...MODERATE LOW-MID LEVEL SSWLY FLOW EVIDENT BY RECENT PHOENIX/FLAGSTAFF VWP/S WILL INCREASE OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND SATURATION INTO THE S-SW FACING SLOPES OF MTNS IN ERN AZ/SWRN NM OVER THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS. SNOW LEVELS BETWEEN 5500-6000 FT BASED ON THE 00Z TUS SOUNDING AND CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AT PRESCOTT MAY LOWER SLIGHTLY TO AROUND 4500-5000 FT WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF SNOW DEVELOPMENT DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF DYNAMIC LIFT. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM 6.5-7.0 C/KM COMBINED WITH ALREADY FAVORABLE OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL SUPPORT SNOWFALL RATES APPROACHING 2 INCHES/HR IN THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC PRECIPITATION BAND. ..CROSBIE.. 12/06/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 05-06 UTC... 11-12 UTC...17-18 UTC...AND 23-00 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28 TO ALLOW PARTNERS AND USERS TO BETTER ANTICIPATE THE TIMING OF SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS. ATTN...WFO...DTX...GRR...ABQ...EPZ...TWC...FGZ...PSR... 43368247 43638368 43878565 43788646 43378648 43098633 42748534 42508347 42538290 33900962 34431149 34251223 33831252 33021161 32641007 32500873 32860756 33680799 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Dec 6 04:54:46 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 05 Dec 2004 23:54:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412060457.iB64v2E14644@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 060452 SWOMCD SPC MCD 060452 MIZ000-061045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2499 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1052 PM CST SUN DEC 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN LOWER MI CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION VALID 060452Z - 061045Z A MIX OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND LIGHT TO MDT SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER WCENTRAL LOWER MI BETWEEN 06-09Z AND OVER CENTRAL-SERN LOWER MI BETWEEN 09-12Z. OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE EWD MOVEMENT AND WEAKENING TREND IN THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. STRONG WAA NOTED IN THE 2-4 KM LAYER OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY/WRN GREAT LAKES VWP AND PROFILER DATA HAS AIDED IN HOURLY PRECIPITATION AMTS FROM 0.2-0.3 INCHES. THIS FORCING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT ENEWD INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DE-AMPLIFY...A WEAKENING TREND IN UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND PRECIPITATION AMTS IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR. 04Z SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES THE 0 DEG C ISOTHERM WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR MKG TO NEAR PTK...WITH THE WBZ LINE LOCATED ABOUT 40 MILES SOUTH OF THIS LINE. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND SATURATING/MELTING EFFECTS SHOULD COUNTER EACH OTHER AND LEAVE LIMITED NWD MOVEMENT OF THE FREEZING LINE WHEN PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT. SHALLOW ELEVATED NOSE OF ABOVE FREEZING AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT NEWD TONIGHT NORTH OF THIS FREEZING LINE. WITH THE ONSET OF STRONGEST MID LEVEL LIFT...LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE JUST NORTH OF THE SFC FREEZING ISOTHERM FROM WCENTRAL INTO SERN LOWER MI...WITH A TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW EXPECTED WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT AS SATURATION AND WET BULB COOLING ENSUES. DESPITE WEAKENING MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...STRONG REMNANT FRONTOGENETIC CIRCULATION WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND MAY LEAD TO ONE OR SEVERAL BANDS OF MODERATE SNOWFALL MOVING EWD ACROSS THE AREA IN THE 09-12Z TIME FRAME. ..CROSBIE.. 12/06/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 05-06 UTC... 11-12 UTC...17-18 UTC...AND 23-00 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28 TO ALLOW PARTNERS AND USERS TO BETTER ANTICIPATE THE TIMING OF SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS. ATTN...WFO...DTX...GRR... 43368247 43638368 43878565 43788646 43378648 43098633 42748534 42508347 42538290  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Dec 6 04:55:09 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 05 Dec 2004 23:55:09 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412060457.iB64vQE14748@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 060453 SWOMCD SPC MCD 060453 MIZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-061100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2500 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1053 PM CST SUN DEC 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL/ERN AZ AND SWRN NM ABOVE 5000 FT CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 060453Z - 061100Z HVY SNOW WITH HOURLY RATES FROM 1-2 INCHES WILL DEVELOP AND SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CNTRL/ERN AZ BETWEEN 05-08Z AND OVER SWRN NM BETWEEN 09-12Z. A 2-3 HOUR PERIOD OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR BEFORE DIMINISHING TRENDS ENSUE FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING AFTER 09Z. LATEST IR IMAGERY INDICATED A COMPACT UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER SAN DIEGO MOVING EWD AROUND 20 KTS. STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF ASSOCIATED JET MAX WAS SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION OVER THE DESERTS OF SERN CA/SWRN AZ. IN ADDITION TO THE WELL PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL LIFT...AS THE UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EWD OVERNIGHT...MODERATE LOW-MID LEVEL SSWLY FLOW EVIDENT BY RECENT PHOENIX/FLAGSTAFF VWP/S WILL INCREASE OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND SATURATION INTO THE S-SW FACING SLOPES OF MTNS IN ERN AZ/SWRN NM OVER THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS. SNOW LEVELS BETWEEN 5500-6000 FT BASED ON THE 00Z TUS SOUNDING AND CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AT PRESCOTT MAY LOWER SLIGHTLY TO AROUND 4500-5000 FT WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF SNOW DEVELOPMENT DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF DYNAMIC LIFT. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM 6.5-7.0 C/KM COMBINED WITH ALREADY FAVORABLE OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL SUPPORT SNOWFALL RATES APPROACHING 2 INCHES/HR IN THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC PRECIPITATION BAND. ..CROSBIE.. 12/06/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 05-06 UTC... 11-12 UTC...17-18 UTC...AND 23-00 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28 TO ALLOW PARTNERS AND USERS TO BETTER ANTICIPATE THE TIMING OF SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS. ATTN...WFO...DTX...GRR...ABQ...EPZ...TWC...FGZ...PSR... 43368247 43638368 43878565 43788646 43378648 43098633 42748534 42508347 42538290 33900962 34431149 34251223 33831252 33021161 32641007 32500873 32860756 33680799  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Dec 6 04:56:18 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 05 Dec 2004 23:56:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412060458.iB64wcE15447@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 060458 SWOMCD SPC MCD 060457 COR NMZ000-AZZ000-061100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2500 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1057 PM CST SUN DEC 05 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL/ERN AZ AND SWRN NM ABOVE 5000 FT CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 060457Z - 061100Z CORRECTED FOR MCD GRAPHIC AREA HVY SNOW WITH HOURLY RATES FROM 1-2 INCHES WILL DEVELOP AND SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CNTRL/ERN AZ BETWEEN 05-08Z AND OVER SWRN NM BETWEEN 09-12Z. A 2-3 HOUR PERIOD OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR BEFORE DIMINISHING TRENDS ENSUE FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING AFTER 09Z. LATEST IR IMAGERY INDICATED A COMPACT UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER SAN DIEGO MOVING EWD AROUND 20 KTS. STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF ASSOCIATED JET MAX WAS SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION OVER THE DESERTS OF SERN CA/SWRN AZ. IN ADDITION TO THE WELL PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL LIFT...AS THE UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EWD OVERNIGHT...MODERATE LOW-MID LEVEL SSWLY FLOW EVIDENT BY RECENT PHOENIX/FLAGSTAFF VWP/S WILL INCREASE OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND SATURATION INTO THE S-SW FACING SLOPES OF MTNS IN ERN AZ/SWRN NM OVER THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS. SNOW LEVELS BETWEEN 5500-6000 FT BASED ON THE 00Z TUS SOUNDING AND CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AT PRESCOTT MAY LOWER SLIGHTLY TO AROUND 4500-5000 FT WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF SNOW DEVELOPMENT DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF DYNAMIC LIFT. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM 6.5-7.0 C/KM COMBINED WITH ALREADY FAVORABLE OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL SUPPORT SNOWFALL RATES APPROACHING 2 INCHES/HR IN THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC PRECIPITATION BAND. ..CROSBIE.. 12/06/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 05-06 UTC... 11-12 UTC...17-18 UTC...AND 23-00 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28 TO ALLOW PARTNERS AND USERS TO BETTER ANTICIPATE THE TIMING OF SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS. ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...TWC...FGZ...PSR... 33900962 34431149 34251223 33831252 33021161 32641007 32500873 32860756 33680799 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Dec 6 11:47:21 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 06 Dec 2004 06:47:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412061149.iB6BnbE21924@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 061149 SWOMCD SPC MCD 061148 NYZ000-PAZ000-061745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2501 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0548 AM CST MON DEC 06 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN /CENTRAL NY AND NCENTRAL PA CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION VALID 061148Z - 061745Z MODERATE SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN/CENTRAL NY THROUGH 18Z...WITH A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET THE PREDOMINANT PTYPES ACROSS NCENTRAL PA. SNOW SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING RAIN/SLEET NWD INTO SCENTRAL/SWRN NY AND PORTIONS OF NERN PA BETWEEN 15-18Z. HOURLY ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 0.03-0.05 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT IS ANTICIPATED TO BE COMMON ACROSS THE AREA FOR AT LEAST A 2-4 HR PERIOD. REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT LIGHT PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO SPREAD RAPIDLY ENEWD ACROSS ERN MI AND NERN OH. 11Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SFC FREEZING LINE EXTENDING ACROSS FAR SWRN NY SEWD TO NEAR STATE COLLEGE...WITH THE WET BULB FREEZING LINE ABOUT 50 MILES SOUTH OF THIS AXIS. A COMBINATION OF MODERATE WARM ADVECTION IN THE 1-3 KM LAYER EVIDENT BY REGIONAL VWP/S OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND EWD MOVEMENT OF THE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS FORCING OVER CENTRAL/ERN MI WILL SUPPORT NEWD DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. MODERATE SNOWFALL ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTOGENETICALLY FORCED BANDS IN THE 600-700 MB LAYER OVER CENTRAL MI WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO WRN NY BETWEEN 12-15Z. FARTHER SOUTH...WHERE LOW LEVEL WAA WILL BE THE DOMINANT FORCING MECHANISM...0-0.5 KM ENELY FLOW AND NUMEROUS NARROW VALLEY/S IN THE REGION WILL SUPPORT COLD AIR BEING LOCKED IN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN AND/OR SLEET AS ELEVATED WARM LAYER OVERSPREADS THE AREA THROUGH THE MID-MORNING. THIS LOW LEVEL COLD DRAINAGE SHOULD ALSO LIMIT THE NWD MOVEMENT OF THE FREEZING LINE THROUGH THE MORNING. AS THE ELEVATED WARM LAYER GRADUALLY SHIFTS NWD THROUGH DURING THE MID-LATE MORNING...SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF SWRN/SCENTRAL NY AND NERN PA SHOULD THEN GRADUALLY BECOME MIXED WITH SLEET AND POSSIBLY FREEZING RAIN BY 18Z. ..CROSBIE.. 12/06/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 05-06 UTC... 11-12 UTC...17-18 UTC...AND 23-00 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28 TO ALLOW PARTNERS AND USERS TO BETTER ANTICIPATE THE TIMING OF SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS. ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ... 43317774 43217842 42397900 41787919 41297886 41157810 41077623 41507553 42137529 42757546 43337592 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Dec 6 16:34:06 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 06 Dec 2004 11:34:06 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412061636.iB6GaLE30267@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 061635 SWOMCD SPC MCD 061635 TXZ000-061830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2502 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1035 AM CST MON DEC 06 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...W AND NCNTRL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 061635Z - 061830Z DEVELOPING CONVECTION WEST OF MIDLAND WILL CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE AND A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT MAY MATERIALIZE ACROSS PARTS OF WEST AND NCNTRL TX LATE THIS MORNING. HAIL SHOULD BE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT BUT STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ALONG A DRYLINE IN WEST TEXAS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND FOCUSED LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WITH THE FAST MOVING TROUGH WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS W TX OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. THIS WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPING CONVECTION AS IT TRACKS EWD INTO THE LOW-ROLLING PLAINS. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE ADVECTION DUE TO THE LOW-LEVEL JET. THIS COMBINED WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 80 KT AND STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS. MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS LOW-LEVELS MOISTEN ESPECIALLY DUE TO THE FAST FORWARD CELL MOTION. HOWEVER...THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED DUE TO A STRONG INVERSION LAYER BELOW 850 MB SHOWING UP ON THE 12Z SOUNDINGS. ..BROYLES.. 12/06/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF... 31120044 30970130 31390200 32060199 32790140 33180089 33370036 33539986 33419935 32749889 31879937 31489994 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Dec 6 18:19:03 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 06 Dec 2004 13:19:03 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412061821.iB6ILIE24359@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 061820 SWOMCD SPC MCD 061820 OKZ000-TXZ000-062015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2503 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1220 PM CST MON DEC 06 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NCNTRL TX/SW OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 061820Z - 062015Z A LINE OF CONVECTION FROM CHILDRESS SWD TO SNYDER SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS NCNTRL TX AND SW OK EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE HAIL WITH MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE POSSIBLE. A WW MAY BE NEEDED SOON. A FAST MOVING VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH WEST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL ASCENT AHEAD OF THE WAVE COMBINED WITH VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS THE NOSE OF THE MID-LEVEL JET ENTERING NCNTRL TX. THIS IS ENHANCING UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE WHICH WILL SUPPORT THE LINE AS IT TRACKS QUICKLY EWD INTO NCNTRL TX AND SW OK. AS THE LINE MOVES EAST...WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR HAIL. IN ADDITION...INCREASING SFC DEWPOINTS AND STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL MAKE MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE POSSIBLE. THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE WILL BE THE WEAK INSTABILITY IN PLACE. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE SEVERE WEATHER COVERAGE FAIRLY ISOLATED ACROSS THE REGION. ..BROYLES.. 12/06/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA... 34809739 33799726 33089782 32959906 33450024 34410027 35129977 35329898 35169802 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Dec 6 19:29:52 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 06 Dec 2004 14:29:52 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412061932.iB6JW7E01575@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 061931 SWOMCD SPC MCD 061930 TXZ000-062100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2504 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0130 PM CST MON DEC 06 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND NORTH TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 909... VALID 061930Z - 062100Z STRONG CONVECTIVE LINE FROM VERNON TX SWD TO NEAR SJT WILL CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE AS IT MOVES EWD ACROSS NORTH AND CNTRL TX THIS AFTERNOON. A WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED EAST OF WW 909 AND S0UTH OF WW 910 SOON. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW-LEVEL MOIST AXIS EXTENDING NWD ACROSS THE TX HILL COUNTRY TO SOUTH OF THE WICHITA FALLS AREA. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THIS AXIS ARE NEAR 60 F. AS THE LINE MOVES EWD INTO THE BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...THE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL RESULT IN A SEVERE THREAT WITH THE STRONGER CELLS WITHIN THE LINE. THINNING UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS EVIDENT ON VIS IMAGERY AHEAD OF THE LINE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SFC TEMPS WARM AND MLCAPE VALUES SHOULD REACH 500 TO 750 J/KG ALONG THE MOIST AXIS. THIS COMBINED WITH A FAST CELL MOTION OF 40-45 KT SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR WIND DAMAGE. IN ADDITION...STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 9,000 FEET SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. ..BROYLES.. 12/06/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT... 31149929 31579968 32779945 33289905 33399708 32599694 31709720 31239766 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Dec 6 22:57:08 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 06 Dec 2004 17:57:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412062259.iB6MxME19741@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 062258 SWOMCD SPC MCD 062258 TXZ000-OKZ000-ARZ000-070030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2505 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0458 PM CST MON DEC 06 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/N-CENTRAL/NE TX...SERN OK...EXTREME SWRN AR. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 910...911... VALID 062258Z - 070030Z NEW WW WILL BE REQUIRED OVER PORTIONS NE TX AND POSSIBLY SW OK IN NEXT 1-2 HOURS...E OF PRESENT WWS. MOST INTENSE PORTION OF EXTENSIVE SQUALL LINE IS MOVING ENEWD 40-45 KT...WITH EMBEDDED BOW ECHO EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING ACROSS SRN PORTIONS DFW METROPLEX. MEASURED GUSTS 40-50 KT AND HIGHER SPOTTER ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN RECEIVED DURING PAST COUPLE HOURS WITH THIS SEGMENT OF CONVECTION. EXPECT POTENTIAL TO PERSIST FOR DOWNDRAFTS TO PENETRATE SHALLOW NEAR-SFC STABLE LAYER AND CAUSE OCCASIONAL DAMAGE. SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE SOMEWHAT LOWER IN ASSOCIATION WITH NRN PART OF THIS LINE -- OVER WW 910 AND LARGELY N OF RED RIVER...BUT SOME PART OF THIS AREA MAY NEED TO BE INCLUDED IN A NEW WW AS WELL. THIS CONVECTION WILL BE MOVING INTO A REGION OF LOWER ELEVATED MUCAPE AND DEEPER STABLE LAYER NEAR SFC. FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE OVER FOREGOING WARM SECTOR AS UPPER TROUGH NOW OVER W TX MOVES ENEWD TOWARD N TX AND MAIN BODY OF OK. VWP/PROFILERS CONSISTENTLY INDICATE 60-70 KT 500 MB FLOW OVER THIS AREA...CONTRIBUTING TO 70-75 KT 0-6 KM AGL SHEAR. LOW LEVEL WAA IS CONTRIBUTING TO A GREAT RANGE OF ELEVATED MUCAPE -- FROM AROUND 2000 J/KG INVOF SRN EDGE OF WW 911...TO LESS THAN 500 J/KG FROM MLC EWD INTO SWRN AR. ..BASED ON ADJUSTED RUC SOUNDINGS. ..EDWARDS.. 12/06/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...TSA...LZK...SHV...HGX... 31619596 31609935 33779906 33779559 33779603 33309972 35209976 35669603 35369602 35379519 35169397 34829384 34069390 33189405 31589459 31569599 33789558 33789602 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Dec 6 22:59:49 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 06 Dec 2004 17:59:49 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412062302.iB6N23E20743@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 062301 SWOMCD SPC MCD 062301 CAZ000-070300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2506 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0501 PM CST MON DEC 06 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...THE MOUNTAINS OF NRN CA ABOVE 3500FT CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 062301Z - 070300Z HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SHASTA/SISKIYOUS REGION AND SPREAD ESEWD INTO THE NRN SIERRA MTNS THROUGH 07/06Z. SNOW LEVELS EXPECTED AROUND 3500 FT NEAR MT SHASTA AND AROUND 4000 FT IN THE NRN SIERRA MTNS. SNOWFALL RATES UP TO 2"/HR PER HOUR POSSIBLE... PARTICULARLY SWD/SWWD FACING SLOPES WITH OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT. VORT MAX EMBEDDED IN STRONG ZONAL FLOW SOUTH OF STATIONARY UPPER LOW OFF WA COAST WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS RAPIDLY EWD REACHING THE NRN CA COAST BY 07/06Z. PRECIPITATION HAS ALREADY SPREAD EWD INTO THE COASTAL RANGES AND MT SHASTA REGION ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION INFERRED FROM RECENT EUREKA VAD WIND PROFILES. HVY SNOW COMMENCED AT MT. SHASTA ASOS /MHS/ AT 20Z. VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS...WITH SWLY 1KM FLOW AROUND 60KT...SHOULD FAVOR STRONG OROGRAPHIC LIFT ALONG SOUTH/SW FACING SLOPES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. COOLING CLOUD TOPS IN IR IMAGERY JUST IN ADVANCE OF VORT MAX 125 NM WEST OF EKA SUGGEST STRONGEST LARGE-SCALE SUPPORT FOR ASCENT SHOULD ARRIVE IN NRN COASTAL RANGES AND MT SHASTA AREA BETWEEN 01-04Z...WHEN 2"/HR RATES ARE MOST LIKELY. HEAVY SNOW WILL SPREAD EWD INTO THE NRN SIERRA MTNS BETWEEN 03-06Z. SOME MINOR FLUCTUATION IN FREEZING LEVELS ARE SUGGESTED BY HOURLY ETA THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES THROUGH 06Z...HOWEVER SNOW LEVELS SHOULD HOLD BETWEEN 3500-4000FT ACROSS MOST OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...WITH LOWER LEVELS FAVORED ACROSS NRN MOST SECTIONS OF DISCUSSION AREA. ..BANACOS.. 12/06/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 05-06 UTC... 11-12 UTC...17-18 UTC...AND 23-00 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28 TO ALLOW PARTNERS AND USERS TO BETTER ANTICIPATE THE TIMING OF SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS. ATTN...WFO...REV...MFR...STO...EKA... 40372282 40132271 39712263 39492266 39452276 39592297 39982327 40252338 40662346 41612355 41742302 41762213 41742181 41632155 41442134 40872100 40282067 39682034 38992004 38932054 39162080 39492106 40222162 40662173 41012184 41122205 41112231 40812269 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Dec 6 22:59:58 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 06 Dec 2004 17:59:58 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412062302.iB6N2CE20784@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 062258 SWOMCD SPC MCD 062258 TXZ000-OKZ000-ARZ000-070030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2505 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0458 PM CST MON DEC 06 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/N-CENTRAL/NE TX...SERN OK...EXTREME SWRN AR. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 910...911... VALID 062258Z - 070030Z NEW WW WILL BE REQUIRED OVER PORTIONS NE TX AND POSSIBLY SW OK IN NEXT 1-2 HOURS...E OF PRESENT WWS. MOST INTENSE PORTION OF EXTENSIVE SQUALL LINE IS MOVING ENEWD 40-45 KT...WITH EMBEDDED BOW ECHO EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING ACROSS SRN PORTIONS DFW METROPLEX. MEASURED GUSTS 40-50 KT AND HIGHER SPOTTER ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN RECEIVED DURING PAST COUPLE HOURS WITH THIS SEGMENT OF CONVECTION. EXPECT POTENTIAL TO PERSIST FOR DOWNDRAFTS TO PENETRATE SHALLOW NEAR-SFC STABLE LAYER AND CAUSE OCCASIONAL DAMAGE. SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE SOMEWHAT LOWER IN ASSOCIATION WITH NRN PART OF THIS LINE -- OVER WW 910 AND LARGELY N OF RED RIVER...BUT SOME PART OF THIS AREA MAY NEED TO BE INCLUDED IN A NEW WW AS WELL. THIS CONVECTION WILL BE MOVING INTO A REGION OF LOWER ELEVATED MUCAPE AND DEEPER STABLE LAYER NEAR SFC. FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE OVER FOREGOING WARM SECTOR AS UPPER TROUGH NOW OVER W TX MOVES ENEWD TOWARD N TX AND MAIN BODY OF OK. VWP/PROFILERS CONSISTENTLY INDICATE 60-70 KT 500 MB FLOW OVER THIS AREA...CONTRIBUTING TO 70-75 KT 0-6 KM AGL SHEAR. LOW LEVEL WAA IS CONTRIBUTING TO A GREAT RANGE OF ELEVATED MUCAPE -- FROM AROUND 2000 J/KG INVOF SRN EDGE OF WW 911...TO LESS THAN 500 J/KG FROM MLC EWD INTO SWRN AR. ..BASED ON ADJUSTED RUC SOUNDINGS. ..EDWARDS.. 12/06/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...TSA...LZK...SHV...HGX... 31619596 31609935 33779906 33779559 33779603 33309972 35209976 35669603 35369602 35379519 35169397 34829384 34069390 33189405 31589459 31569599 33789558 33789602  From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Dec 6 23:01:58 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 06 Dec 2004 18:01:58 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412062304.iB6N4CE21634@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 062301 SWOMCD SPC MCD 062301 CAZ000-070300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2506 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0501 PM CST MON DEC 06 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...THE MOUNTAINS OF NRN CA ABOVE 3500FT CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 062301Z - 070300Z HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SHASTA/SISKIYOUS REGION AND SPREAD ESEWD INTO THE NRN SIERRA MTNS THROUGH 07/06Z. SNOW LEVELS EXPECTED AROUND 3500 FT NEAR MT SHASTA AND AROUND 4000 FT IN THE NRN SIERRA MTNS. SNOWFALL RATES UP TO 2"/HR PER HOUR POSSIBLE... PARTICULARLY SWD/SWWD FACING SLOPES WITH OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT. VORT MAX EMBEDDED IN STRONG ZONAL FLOW SOUTH OF STATIONARY UPPER LOW OFF WA COAST WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS RAPIDLY EWD REACHING THE NRN CA COAST BY 07/06Z. PRECIPITATION HAS ALREADY SPREAD EWD INTO THE COASTAL RANGES AND MT SHASTA REGION ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION INFERRED FROM RECENT EUREKA VAD WIND PROFILES. HVY SNOW COMMENCED AT MT. SHASTA ASOS /MHS/ AT 20Z. VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS...WITH SWLY 1KM FLOW AROUND 60KT...SHOULD FAVOR STRONG OROGRAPHIC LIFT ALONG SOUTH/SW FACING SLOPES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. COOLING CLOUD TOPS IN IR IMAGERY JUST IN ADVANCE OF VORT MAX 125 NM WEST OF EKA SUGGEST STRONGEST LARGE-SCALE SUPPORT FOR ASCENT SHOULD ARRIVE IN NRN COASTAL RANGES AND MT SHASTA AREA BETWEEN 01-04Z...WHEN 2"/HR RATES ARE MOST LIKELY. HEAVY SNOW WILL SPREAD EWD INTO THE NRN SIERRA MTNS BETWEEN 03-06Z. SOME MINOR FLUCTUATION IN FREEZING LEVELS ARE SUGGESTED BY HOURLY ETA THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES THROUGH 06Z...HOWEVER SNOW LEVELS SHOULD HOLD BETWEEN 3500-4000FT ACROSS MOST OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...WITH LOWER LEVELS FAVORED ACROSS NRN MOST SECTIONS OF DISCUSSION AREA. ..BANACOS.. 12/06/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 05-06 UTC... 11-12 UTC...17-18 UTC...AND 23-00 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28 TO ALLOW PARTNERS AND USERS TO BETTER ANTICIPATE THE TIMING OF SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS. ATTN...WFO...REV...MFR...STO...EKA... 40372282 40132271 39712263 39492266 39452276 39592297 39982327 40252338 40662346 41612355 41742302 41762213 41742181 41632155 41442134 40872100 40282067 39682034 38992004 38932054 39162080 39492106 40222162 40662173 41012184 41122205 41112231 40812269  From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Dec 8 06:56:35 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 08 Dec 2004 01:56:35 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412080658.iB86wrE00831@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 080658 SWOMCD SPC MCD 080657 NVZ000-CAZ000-081300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2519 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1257 AM CST WED DEC 08 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN CA CASCADES CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 080657Z - 081300Z ...SNOW RATES WILL BE AT LEAST 2"/HOUR ABOVE 4000 FEET ACROSS THE SISKIYOU/SHASTA MTNS OF NRN CA... STRONG UPPER STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY OFF WEST COAST WILL PROVIDE ABUNDANT LARGE SCALE LIFT ACROSS NRN CA OVERNIGHT...WITH HEAVY SNOWFALL LIKELY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. UPPER VERTICAL MOTION WILL BE ENHANCED BOTH BY JET DYNAMICS AND STRONG WAA PATTERN EVIDENT IN LATEST VAD WIND PROFILES. RECENT OBSERVATION AT BLUE RIVER OF 3 INCHES OF SNOW IN 1 HOUR SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES OVERNIGHT. THERMODYNAMICS PROFILES/FORECAST 700MB TEMPS INDICATE SNOW LEVELS MAINLY ABOVE 4000 FEET WITH RAIN IN THE VALLEYS. IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT OF HEAVY SNOW...A 40-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL CREATE WINDY CONDITIONS/BLOWING SNOW AT THE SURFACE. ..TAYLOR.. 12/08/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28 TO ALLOW PARTNERS AND USERS TO BETTER ANTICIPATE THE TIMING OF SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS. ATTN...WFO...REV...MFR...STO... 38752019 39322143 41302229 41732218 41732174 40822149 39842075 38871988 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Dec 8 13:03:31 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 08 Dec 2004 08:03:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412081305.iB8D5mE04681@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 081305 SWOMCD SPC MCD 081305 IDZ000-ORZ000-081900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2520 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0705 AM CST WED DEC 08 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...W CNTRL/BOISE MTNS OF ID CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 081305Z - 081900Z ...PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING INTO AFTN ACROSS THE W CNTRL MTNS OF ID THROUGH THE CAMAS REGION MAINLY ABOVE 5000 FEET... LATEST WV IMAGERY SUGGESTS NOSE OF MID LEVEL JET HAS ADVANCED TO THE BLUE/WALLOWA MTNS OF NE ORE...WITH 60 KT WLY FLOW BEING SAMPLED JUST ABOVE 500 MB AT BOISE...AND OVER 100 KT OBSERVED WITHIN THE PAST TWO HOURS AT MEDFORD...WHICH HAS INCREASED FROM 60 KT AT 06Z. IN ADDITION...VERY STRONG SLY LOW LEVEL JET IS FOCUSING MOISTURE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN W CNTRL ID. THE STRONGEST DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET WILL SPREAD FROM ERN ORE/WA INTO THE SRN TWO-THIRDS OF ID THROUGH 18Z. LATEST SNOW LEVELS ARE ABOVE 5000 FEET PER 12Z BOI SOUNDING/CURRENT SFC OBSERVATIONS. AS MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WLY...INCREASING OROGRAPHIC ASCENT. STRONG WAA PATTERN WILL FAVOR INCREASING SNOW LEVELS...ESPECIALLY AFTER 18Z. HOWEVER...FAVORED DENDRITIC GROWTH REGION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE WCNTRL MTNS OF ID THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 2"/HR ABOVE 5000 FEET. ..TAYLOR.. 12/08/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28 TO ALLOW PARTNERS AND USERS TO BETTER ANTICIPATE THE TIMING OF SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS. ATTN...WFO...PIH...MSO...BOI...PDT... 43211352 43111501 44111624 44491724 44981746 45341719 45411647 45061534 43731345 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Dec 8 23:46:27 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 08 Dec 2004 18:46:27 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412082348.iB8NmhE01408@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 082348 SWOMCD SPC MCD 082347 LAZ000-TXZ000-090115- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2521 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0547 PM CST WED DEC 08 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...UPPER TX COAST INTO SWRN LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 082347Z - 090115Z ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA THIS EVENING. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE OUTLOOK UPGRADE AND WW ISSUANCE. 23Z MESOANALYSIS INDICATES PRIMARY WARM FRONT ACROSS THE NWRN GULF FROM NEAR BRO NEWD TO APPROXIMATELY 30-40 NM OFF GALVESTON BAY TO JUST OFF THE SERN LA COAST. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S COUPLED WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 7 C/KM ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG S OF THIS BOUNDARY OVER THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO. WITH APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS WRN TX...EXPECT THIS BOUNDARY TO LIFT NWD...ALLOWING FOR THIS SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP ALONG THE UPPER TX COAST INTO SWRN LA. FORECAST HODOGRAPHS SUGGEST THAT WIND FIELDS ALONG COAST WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED TSTMS...INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY SUPERCELLS. DAMAGING WINDS AND A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SURFACE-BASED STORMS...WHILE ELEVATED DEVELOPMENT N OF BOUNDARY WILL BE CAPABLE OF MAINLY MARGINAL HAIL. ..MEAD.. 12/08/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX... 28969622 29869560 30519432 30639311 30599228 30039198 29569225 29459386 28689569 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Dec 9 10:21:20 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 09 Dec 2004 05:21:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412091023.iB9ANZ915154@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 091022 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091022 ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-091145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2522 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0422 AM CST THU DEC 09 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MS...SWRN AL...EXTREME WRN FL PNHDL AND EXTREME ERN LA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 091022Z - 091145Z TSTMS HAVE BECOME MORE ORGANIZED FROM CNTRL MS SWD INTO ERN LA SINCE 09Z. A BOW ECHO HAS FORMED OVER SMITH COUNTY MS AND IS MOVING ENEWD AROUND 40 KTS. MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT THIS STORM IS RIDING ALONG AN E-W WARM FRONT AND THERE IS EVIDENCE THAT A SUB-SYNOPTIC LOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM. EXTRAPOLATION HAS THE STORM VCNTY KMEI BY 1045Z AND INTO WRN AL AFTER 1115Z. A TORNADO WATCH MAY BECOME NECESSARY IN THE NEXT HOUR ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL AL. VWP TIME SERIES FROM SLIDELL AND BRANDON SHOW THAT THE FLOW IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS IS BEGINNING TO BECOME MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL...THUS THE PROPENSITY FOR TSTMS TO BOW. IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE WITHIN A BROADER BAND OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...THEN MOVE EWD INTO CNTRL/SWRN AL AND THE WRN FL PNHDL. DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS HAS DESTABILIZED AND IT IS REASONABLE TO ASSUME THAT STORMS WILL BE NEARLY SURFACE BASED AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. IF THE SUB-SYNOPTIC LOW INTENSIFIES...LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS APT TO BE STRONGER INTO PARTS OF CNTRL AL AND TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE A THREAT. HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY OCCUR ENEWD FROM CNTRL MS INTO CNTRL AL WHERE THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID-MORNING. FARTHER S... TENDENCIES FOR THE SHEAR TO DECREASE WILL LIKELY KEEP THE SEVERE THREATS MARGINAL OR ISOLD. ..RACY.. 12/09/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX... 32508930 32908643 30558701 29038870 29389005 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Dec 9 12:03:20 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 09 Dec 2004 07:03:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412091205.iB9C5Z913261@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 091205 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091204 ALZ000-MSZ000-091330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2523 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0604 AM CST THU DEC 09 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MS AND CNTRL AL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 916... VALID 091204Z - 091330Z RADAR MOSAIC AND MESOANALYSIS DEPICT THE SUB-SYNOPTIC LOW ON THE AL/MS BORDER 30NE OF KMEI. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE THROUGH CNTRL AL AND NEAR/NW OF KBHM 14-15Z. TSTMS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE LOW ACROSS WRN AL. THESE CELLS...ALONG WITH THE TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW...WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST TORNADIC POTENTIAL AS THEY MOVE 240/40. THAT STORM MOTION ON THE INCREASINGLY SHEARED HODOGRAPH AT KBHM GIVES A SRH AOA 325 MS/S2. THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR MAY INCREASE SOMEWHAT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE LOW MIGRATES NEWD ALONG THE WARM FRONT INTO CNTRL AL. OTHERWISE... DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE A THREAT...ESPECIALLY AS CELLS MATURE AND POTENTIALLY BOW. MEANWHILE...TSTMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING ALONG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE BROAD ZONE OF CONVECTION ACROSS CNTRL/SRN MS WHERE RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW MUCAPE LINGERING IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE. THESE STORMS MAY CAUSE GUSTY WINDS OR PERHAPS HAIL...BUT THE FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN APPEARS TO BE DISRUPTED BY RECENT CONVECTION AND THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED. BUT...ORIENTATION OF THE TSTMS WITH RESPECT TO THE WSWLY SHEAR VECTORS THROUGH 6KM DOES SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR VERY HEAVY/TRAINING RAINFALL FROM AMITE COUNTY NEWD TO SIMPSON/SMITH COUNTIES IN MS. THE UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW ALSO WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SPLITTING CELLS WITH LEFT MOVING MEMBERS MOVING NWD INTO AREAS S/SE OF KJAN. ..RACY.. 12/09/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX... 31558902 33188910 33638626 31898629 31259091 32348989 32438916 31438920 31049030 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Dec 9 13:45:29 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 09 Dec 2004 08:45:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412091347.iB9Dlh917781@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 091347 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091346 ALZ000-091515- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2524 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0746 AM CST THU DEC 09 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MS AND AL CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 916... VALID 091346Z - 091515Z RECENT STORM RELATIVE MOTION PRODUCTS CONTINUE TO SHOW SPORADIC LOW LEVEL CIRCULATIONS ASSOCIATED WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS... PRIMARILY NEAR AND SOUTH OF A SUB-SYNOPTIC LOW OVER NCNTRL AL. WARM SECTOR HAS SPREAD NWD TO THE LOW LEVEL COLD WEDGE ENTRENCHED ACROSS NERN AL AND NWRN GA. LOW LEVEL SHEAR REMAINS THE STRONGEST MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF A KBHM-SELMA LINE AND THE KBHM VWP SUGGESTS A 302 M2/S2 0-1KM SRH USING A STORM MOTION OF 240/40. TO THE WEST OF THIS LINE...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS VEERED CONSIDERABLY. THUS...THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR ISOLD TORNADOES HAS SHIFTED EWD INTO ERN PARTS OF THE WW. MAIN BRANCH OF THE LLJ IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE NWD INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE MORNING AS UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH EJECTS NEWD. THE RESULT WILL BE A RELAXING OF THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR WITH TIME AND THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH WATCH EXPIRATION. EVENTUALLY...THE BROAD BAND OF TSTMS WILL BEGIN TO OUTRUN THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY AXIS THIS MORNING. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH THE TRANSLATION OF STRONGER WIND FIELDS NWD ATOP THE COLDER AIR WILL LIKELY SIGNAL A DECREASE IN THE SEVERE PROBABILITIES WITH TIME. ..RACY.. 12/09/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB... 31598838 32438836 33868610 31878628 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Dec 9 16:26:44 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 09 Dec 2004 11:26:44 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412091628.iB9GSw930729@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 091625 SWOMCD SPC MCD 091624 GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-091830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2525 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1024 AM CST THU DEC 09 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...FL PNHDL...SE AL...SW GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 091624Z - 091830Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND POSSIBILITY OF WW. AS INITIAL IMPULSE LIFTS FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARD THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...STRONGER LOW-LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO LIFT INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AREA LATE THIS MORNING. HOWEVER... JET AXIS TRAILS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF COAST...AND CONFLUENT BAND NEAR THIS AXIS HAS BECOME FOCUS FOR STRENGTHENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE PAST HOUR OR SO. CELLS HAVE BEEN INCREASING WEST OF PENSACOLA FL INTO THE DOTHAN/OZARK AL AREA...ON WESTERN PERIPHERY OF SURFACE RIDGE...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO RETREAT AND BEGIN TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. AS THIS OCCURS...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE...WITH SHEAR PROFILES STILL SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS IN ENVIRONMENT WITH MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE LIKELY TO INCREASE IN EXCESS OF 500 J/KG. AN ISOLATED TORNADO APPEARS POSSIBLE NEAR/NORTH OF PANAMA CITY INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST ALABAMA/SOUTHWEST GEORGIA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...A FEW STORMS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG GUSTY WINDS. ..KERR.. 12/09/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX... 30278599 31028601 31718585 32288524 32818474 32418424 31728411 31198423 30588439 29978521 29428573 28898650 29798612  From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 10 00:14:03 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 09 Dec 2004 19:14:03 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412100016.iBA0GF910316@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 100015 SWOMCD SPC MCD 100015 SCZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-100145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2526 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0615 PM CST THU DEC 09 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL AL EWD INTO UPSTATE SC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 100015Z - 100145Z THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE COURSE OF THE EVENING. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY AND LDS DATA INDICATE AN INCREASE IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT FROM PORTIONS OF CNTRL/E-CNTRL AL EWD TO NEAR ATL AREA. 00Z BHM/FFC SOUNDINGS AND RUC ANALYSIS FIELDS SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING WITHIN A WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT WHERE MLCAPES REMAIN AROUND 500-1000 J/KG. THE WRN MOST TSTM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED ERN EDGE OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH MS. MEANWHILE...LOCAL VWPS SUGGEST THAT ACTIVITY OVER GA IS LIKELY BEING FORCED BY LOW-LEVEL WAA ACTING ON THE WEAKLY CAPPED AIR MASS. AS AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE EWD TONIGHT...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FROM PORTIONS OF E-CNTRL AL EWD INTO UPSTATE SC. STRONG SPEED SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH 60-7O KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK TRANSLATING ACROSS REGION WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO. FORECAST STORM MOTIONS SUGGEST THAT DEVELOPMENT INVOF OF WARM FRONT FROM NRN GA INTO N-CNTRL SC WILL QUICKLY BECOME ELEVATED ABOVE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. HOWEVER...ANY DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING FARTHER S IN WARM SECTOR WILL HAVE A GREATER POTENTIAL OF REMAINING SURFACE-BASED. ..MEAD.. 12/10/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC...BMX... 33308556 33828524 34148297 34188162 33988117 33338103 32848221 32688433 32628525 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 10 03:47:23 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 09 Dec 2004 22:47:23 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412100349.iBA3nb915073@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 100348 SWOMCD SPC MCD 100348 GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-100515- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2527 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0948 PM CST THU DEC 09 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN INTO CNTRL GA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 100348Z - 100515Z ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS WW AREA. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE. AS OF 0330Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS TSTMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE FROM WRB/ABY SWWD TO NEAR PFN IN THE FL PNHDL. AMBIENT AIR MASS REMAINS WARM AND MOIST WHICH IS CONTRIBUTING TO POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY /I.E. MLCAPES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG/ AND A RELATIVELY WEAK CAP. INSPECTION OF WATER VAPOR LOOP SUGGESTS THAT LARGE-SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY IS LIKELY AIDING IN THIS INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. LOCAL VWPS WITHIN THIS REGION REMAIN QUITE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO GIVEN 0-6 KM SHEAR/0-1 KM SRH OF 50-60 KTS/150-250 M2/S2 RESPECTIVELY. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AND IF IT APPEARS THAT ONGOING STORMS ARE BECOMING TRULY ROOTED IN BOUNDARY-LAYER...A WW MAY BE REQUIRED. ..MEAD.. 12/10/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE... 32208494 32658269 32278253 31648282 30698405 30538453 30748526 31248527 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 10 05:06:05 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 10 Dec 2004 00:06:05 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412100508.iBA58H907527@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 100507 SWOMCD SPC MCD 100507 SCZ000-NCZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-100630- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2528 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1107 PM CST THU DEC 09 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...W-CNTRL GA INTO CNTRL SC CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 918... VALID 100507Z - 100630Z THROUGH 06Z...GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES APPEARS TO BE FROM AROUND MCN NEWD INTO UPSTATE SC /N OF AGS/. AS OF 0450Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS MAJORITY OF INITIAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG/N OF WARM FRONT FROM NERN GA INTO NWRN SC AND INTO CNTRL NC. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL CLUSTERS OF STORMS HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FROM NE OF MCN SWWD INTO SWRN GA. LATEST MESOANALYSIS AND RUC DIAGNOSTIC FIELDS INDICATE THAT THESE STORMS ARE FORMING WITHIN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS /I.E. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S/ WHERE MLCAPES REMAIN AROUND 1000 J/KG. CURRENT VWP FROM CNTRL GA CONTINUES TO INDICATE VERY FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 50-60 KTS AND 0-1 KM SRH OF 200-250 M2/S2. GIVEN THIS COMBINATION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG SHEAR...IT APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES THROUGH 06Z WILL BE IN A CORRIDOR FROM MCN NEWD TO NW OR N OF AGS. ELSEWHERE...POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL EXIST WITH STORMS INTERACTING WITH WARM FRONT OVER NWRN SC. HOWEVER...ORIENTATION OF WARM FRONT TO OBSERVED STORM MOTIONS SUGGEST THAT RESIDENCE TIME WITHIN FAVORABLE REGION OF FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN SHORT. ..MEAD.. 12/10/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC...BMX... 33818517 35028022 33438022 32238518 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 10 06:33:18 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 10 Dec 2004 01:33:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412100635.iBA6ZU900487@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 100634 SWOMCD SPC MCD 100634 MAZ000-NHZ000-CTZ000-VTZ000-101030- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2529 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1234 AM CST FRI DEC 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF VT/SWRN NH AND WRN MA CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION VALID 100634Z - 101030Z THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SNOW RATES TO REACH 1"/HR ABOVE 1000 FEET ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF VT/NH AND WRN MA. IN ADDITION...SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE BEFORE 12Z ACROSS WRN MA. LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE RACING NORTHEAST WITH MAIN CIRCULATION NOW APPROACHING BGM. REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION NOW FALLING FROM ROCHESTER NY TO NEAR HYANNIS...WITH ALL OF THIS IN THE FORM OF RAIN. LARGE AREA OF 500-700 MB UPWARD MOTION WILL SPREAD FROM SW TO NE OVER THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS...AND ETA/RUC QPF FORECASTS SUGGEST HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL EXTEND FROM ERN NY/MA/SRN VT AND NH THROUGH 12Z. GIVEN STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WHICH WILL BE OCCURRING OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS...THE PRECIPITATION WILL MAINLY BE RAIN...CHANGING TO SNOW OR SLEET BY MORNING IN SOME LOCATIONS. PROFILE IS NEARLY ISOTHERMAL PER 00Z OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM ALBANY NY...WITH JUST A SHALLOW WARM LAYER /ABOVE FREEZING/ IN THE LOWEST 2000-2500 FEET AGL. ABOVE THAT LAYER THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE SUPPORTS ALL SNOW. MAIN CONCERN FOR WRN MA THEN IS PRECIPITATION TYPE. RECENT SFC OBS AT ORE/AFN HAVE RECENTLY CHANGED TO SNOW WITH A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW AT ORH. AS STRONG WAA CONTINUES OVERNIGHT...POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW BETWEEN 06Z-09Z...AFTER WHICH TIME DRYING/WARMING AT MID LEVELS WILL CHANGE PRECIPITATION TO DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE BY 12Z. OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT FROM THE GREEN MTNS IN WRN VT MAY SUPPORT SNOW RATES INCRG TO 1"/HR FOR A FEW HOURS OVERNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PROFILES WILL REMAIN COMPLETELY BELOW FREEZING THROUGH 09-10Z...WITH SATURATED DENDRITIC ZONE FAVORING ALL SNOW. ..TAYLOR.. 12/10/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY... 44317300 43837312 43077319 42257329 42027285 42017211 42147157 42497148 42917196 43447207 44107194 44427215 44467253 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 10 07:10:21 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 10 Dec 2004 02:10:21 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412100712.iBA7CV910925@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 100711 SWOMCD SPC MCD 100711 GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-SCZ000-NCZ000-100815- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2530 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0111 AM CST FRI DEC 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN GA...SRN/ERN SC...SERN NC CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 918...919... VALID 100711Z - 100815Z EXPECT SEVERE POTENTIAL...INCLUDING POSSIBILITY OF SUPERCELLS WITH A FEW TORNADOES...TO CONTINUE SHIFTING EWD ACROSS REMAINDER WW AREAS. THREAT MAY EXTEND EWD ACROSS REMAINDER SRN GA NEWD TO PARTS OF ERN NC DURING NEXT FEW HOURS...AND WWS LIKELY WILL BE REQUIRED TO INCLUDE THOSE AREAS. MEANWHILE...CONTINUE VALID PORTIONS PRESENT WWS UNTIL CLEARED OR REPLACED. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS FRONTAL-WAVE LOW OVER NWRN SC WITH WARM FRONT ENEWD TO BETWEEN RIC-ORF...AND STATIONARY FRONT WSWWD ACROSS CSG AREA. CONFLUENCE LINE IS EVIDENT FROM SFC LOW SSWWD ACROSS S-CENTRAL GA TO APALACHEE BAY. EXPECT THIS CONFLUENCE LINE TO MOVE ENEWD ACROSS REMAINDER ERN GA INTO WRN SC...GIVEN LOCATION OF STRONGEST PRESSURE FALLS FROM N OF AGS TO ERN NC. HODOGRAPHS SHOULD BE LARGEST E OF CONFLUENCE LINE WHERE SFC FLOW IS MORE BACKED...WITH 0-1 KM AGL SRH 200-300 J/KG BEING COMMON. DEEPER LAYER SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE AS WELL...WITH 0-6 KM SHEARS 50-60 KT. WEAK SFC-BASED CINH IS INDICATED ACROSS MUCH OF REGION BECAUSE OF DIABATIC COOLING...HOWEVER THIS EFFECT IS QUITE SHALLOW AND OFFSET TO A LARGE DEGREE BY COMBINATION OF DOWNWARD MIXING AND BOUNDARY LAYER THETAE ADVECTION. PRIND ANY SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS WILL CARRY POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES GIVEN LARGE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND NEAR SFC-BASED INSTABILITY. ..EDWARDS.. 12/10/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...RAH...ILM...GSP...BMX...AKQ...MHX... 30628348 30638560 32868430 32868207 33458022 32238513 33818513 35028024 34798019 34977950 36437683 35907621 35277626 34717687 33997798 33307915 32647997 31888083 30798153 30688256 30828328 31268304 32818210 33048187 33488024 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 10 10:59:44 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 10 Dec 2004 05:59:44 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412101101.iBAB1t928941@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 101101 SWOMCD SPC MCD 101100 NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-FLZ000-101300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2531 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0500 AM CST FRI DEC 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN/ERN GA...SRN/ERN SC...SERN NC CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 920... VALID 101100Z - 101300Z BROKEN BAND OF STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS -- OCCASIONALLY CONTAINING EMBEDDED SUPERCELL OR SMALL BOW -- WILL CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS WW TOWARD ATLANTIC COASTLINE. CUMULATIVE LINEAR COLD POOL GENERATED BY STORMS WITHIN BAND MAY FORCE SOME ACCELERATION OF CONVECTIVE LINE AS A WHOLE DURING NEXT FEW HOURS...MOVING LEADING EDGE OFFSHORE BEFORE WW EXPIRES. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...WW MAY BE CANCELED BEFORE SCHEDULED 14Z EXPIRATION. MEANWHILE...INFLOW SECTOR REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE...AND WW SHOULD BE CONTINUED ALONG/AHEAD OF THIS BAND. AIR MASS REMAINS FAVORABLY SHEARED WITH REGIONAL VWP SHOWING 150-300 J/KG SRH THROUGH 0-1 KM AGL LAYER. MODIFIED RUC FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MID-UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES 6-7 DEG C/KM ARE WIDESPREAD OVER WARM SECTOR. THIS COMBINES WITH DEW POINTS IN MID-UPPER 60S F IN LOWEST 1 KM AGL TO SUPPORT MUCAPES 1500-2000 J/KG. WHILE STRONGEST CAPES ARE DERIVED USING SLIGHTLY ELEVATED LIFTED PARCEL -- AROUND 500 M AGL -- THERE IS STILL ENOUGH SFC-BASED INSTABILITY TO JUSTIFY MAINTAINING TORNADO THREAT WITH ANY SUSTAINED AND/OR INTENSE LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES WHICH DEVELOP. POSSIBLE TORNADO WITH INJURY WAS REPORTED 10Z CALHOUN COUNTY SC. ..EDWARDS.. 12/10/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE... 30708169 30698474 34798056 34787737 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 10 11:17:47 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 10 Dec 2004 06:17:47 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412101119.iBABJv901911@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 101119 SWOMCD SPC MCD 101118 NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-101315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2532 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0518 AM CST FRI DEC 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF ERN NC...PORTIONS EXTREME SERN VA CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 921... VALID 101118Z - 101315Z BAND OF STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS WILL CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS WW AREA INTO FAVORABLY SHEARED/UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR AIR...WITH POTENTIAL FOR HAIL...DAMAGING GUSTS AND A FEW TORNADOES. ALTHOUGH WARM SECTOR SFC FLOW HAS VEERED SOMEWHAT...HODOGRAPHS REMAIN QUITE LONG AND STILL SUPPORT 0-1 KM AGL SRH AOA 200 J/KG IN MANY AREAS. ALTHOUGH BUOYANCY IN WARM SECTOR IS COMPUTED WITH SLIGHTLY ELEVATED LIFTED PARCEL -- 250-500 M AGL -- ENOUGH SFC-BASED INSTABILITY IS EVIDENT THAT TORNADO THREAT PROBABLY EXISTS WITH ANY SUSTAINED AND/OR INTENSE LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES WHICH DEVELOP. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS MOVED E ACROSS ALMOST ALL OF SERN VA...INCLUDING HAMPTON ROADS REGION...SUBSTANTIALLY STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS BEHIND IT AND REDUCING THREAT FOR SEVERE FROM SFC-BASED TSTMS IN THAT AREA. GIVEN PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS BOUNDARY AND PRECIP ONGOING BEHIND IT...SFC AIR MASS RECOVERY IS NOT EXPECTED AND TORNADO THREAT OVER VA PORTION WW HAS DIMINISHED MARKEDLY. HOWEVER..GIVEN ELEVATED MUCAPES 1000-1500 J/KG BASED ON MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS...AND VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINING FAVORABLE FOR STORM ROTATION ALOFT...THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL PERSISTS WITH TSTMS MOVING NEWD BEHIND LEADING OUTFLOW EDGE. ..EDWARDS.. 12/10/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CAE... 34807674 34808019 36937714 36937385 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 10 11:40:17 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 10 Dec 2004 06:40:17 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412101142.iBABgR908949@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 101141 SWOMCD SPC MCD 101141 FLZ000-GAZ000-101415- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2533 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0541 AM CST FRI DEC 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NRN FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 101141Z - 101415Z BROKEN BAND OF TSTMS IS FCST TO SHIFT EWD ACROSS NRN FL PENINSULA THROUGH AT LEAST 14Z...AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT. BRIEF SPIN-UP OF DAMAGING BOW OR SUPERCELL TORNADO IS POSSIBLE...HOWEVER THREAT APPEARS LIMITED ENOUGH IN SPACE AND TIME THAT WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM. SFC FLOW HAS VEERED ACROSS THIS AREA...REDUCING CONVERGENCE SOMEWHAT AND ALSO REDUCING DIRECTIONAL SHEAR CONTRIBUTION TO LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH SIZE. THIS TREND IS FCST TO CONTINUE THROUGH MIDMORNING GIVEN RETREAT OF STRONGEST ISALLOBARIC FORCING AWAY FROM REGION...ACROSS TIDEWATER/MID-ATLANTIC STATES. HOWEVER...FOR ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS THERE REMAINS ENOUGH SHEAR/INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SUPERCELL/BOW POTENTIAL. DESPITE NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW...JAX VWP SUPPORTS 0-1 KM SRH 200-300 J/KG FOR ANY TSTMS MOVING 20-30 DEG RIGHTWARD OF MEAN WIND...OR JUST N OF DUE E. ONE CAVEAT MAY BE SFC-BASED CINH ESTIMATED TO BE STRONGER THAN FARTHER N OVER WW 920...BASED ON MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS SHOWING 500-800 M AGL MOST UNSTABLE LIFTED PARCEL. EXPECT SEVERE POTENTIAL TO DIMINISH WITH PASSAGE OF CONVECTIVE BAND AND WITH TIME AS CONVERGENCE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. ..EDWARDS.. 12/10/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE... 29688346 30378241 30738195 30738150 30538137 29818128 29008165 28698245 29178315 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 10 16:11:34 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 10 Dec 2004 11:11:34 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412101613.iBAGDk921617@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 101613 SWOMCD SPC MCD 101612 VAZ000-WVZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-101645- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2534 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1012 AM CST FRI DEC 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF TENNESSEE VALLEY/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 101612Z - 101645Z TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF INCREASING SEVERE THREAT. A SLIGHT RISK IS BEING ADDED TO UPCOMING 1630Z OUTLOOK. ALTHOUGH HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AIR HAS SHIFTED OFF TO THE EAST... AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT...SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE STILL IN THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S ACROSS THE UPPER TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN/ WESTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. AS MID-LEVEL COLD POOL /WITH COLDEST 500 MB TEMPS AOB -25C/ IN BASE OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH OVERSPREADS REGION THIS AFTERNOON...DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY. MIXED LAYER CAPE COULD EXCEED 500 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON. WITH PRESSURE GRADIENT...ASSOCIATED WITH OCCLUDED SURFACE LOW OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY...SUPPORTIVE OF FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON... DESTABILIZATION WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY DEEPENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE...WITH A FEW UPDRAFTS VIGOROUS ENOUGH FOR HAIL EXCEEDING SEVERE LIMITS IN FAVORABLY COOL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. ..KERR.. 12/10/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN... 37458327 37988121 37658016 36208048 35188174 34188340 34058617 34838635 36138604 37118472 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 10 17:52:00 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 10 Dec 2004 12:52:00 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412101754.iBAHs9903311@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 101753 SWOMCD SPC MCD 101753 TNZ000-NCZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-102000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2535 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1153 AM CST FRI DEC 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TN...NE AL...NRN GA...WRN NC CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS/SEVERE POTENTIAL VALID 101753Z - 102000Z TRENDS CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. GENERAL SEVERE THREAT STILL APPEARS MARGINAL...AND A WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. INCREASING/DEEPENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EVIDENT IN LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. SURFACE TEMPERATURE RISES ARE SLOW DUE TO ONGOING LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION...BUT LATEST OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE INDICATES STRONGER MID-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION IS ALREADY CONTRIBUTING TO CAPE UP TO 500 J/KG FOR MOST UNSTABLE SURFACE PARCELS. MIXED LAYER CAPE IS STILL ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 250 J/KG OR SO...BUT SHOULD INCREASE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING AND INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AMPLIFYING UPSTREAM TROUGH. TRENDS WILL BE FOR SOUTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER JET AXIS TO CONTINUE GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON...AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS PROGRESSES EAST OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HOWEVER...SHEAR PROFILES ON THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS APPEAR LIKELY TO REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO ENHANCE RISK FOR HAIL IN DEVELOPING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. EXPERIMENTAL HAIL ALGORITHM RUN ON LATEST MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS SOME RISK FOR HAIL APPROACHING THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS ACROSS EXTREME NORTHWEST GEORGIA...AND AREAS OF TENNESSEE BETWEEN CHATTANOOGA/KNOXVILLE. ..KERR.. 12/10/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN... 34418480 34508564 34898604 35408596 35958534 36568386 36418284 35138349 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Dec 11 01:05:34 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 10 Dec 2004 20:05:34 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412110107.iBB17g919984@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 110107 SWOMCD SPC MCD 110106 MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-110500- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2536 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0706 PM CST FRI DEC 10 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NE NY/NRN VT/NRN NH INTO NRN ME CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION VALID 110106Z - 110500Z MIX OF SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z FROM ADIRONDACK MTNS OF NY INTO NRN VT/NRN NH...WITH SNOW INCREASING ACROSS NW ME AFTER 03Z. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS UPPER TROUGH TRANSITIONING EWD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...AS ATTENDANT 997 MB SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS NEWD ACROSS WRN PA/DELMARVA AREA. DPVA AND WARM AIR ADVECTION COMBINED WITH EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET ARE CONTRIBUTING TO STRONG UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION/BROAD PRECIP SHIELD FROM ERN NY INTO NEW ENGLAND. OWING TO WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF CYCLONE...LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS ALL BUT UPSTATE NY/VT/NH/ME FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. ACROSS NE NY AND NRN VT/NH...21Z RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS PORTRAY A LOSS OF SEEDER FEEDER/FAVORABLE DENDRITIC PROFILES BY 04Z-06Z OWING TO APPROACHING DRY SLOT AHEAD OF CYCLONE. THIS SUGGESTS DIMINISHING PRECIP RATES AND LOSS OF ICE INTRODUCTION AFTER APPROX 04Z...LIKELY LEADING TO FREEZING DRIZZLE/LIGHT SNOW. FURTHER NE...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/INCREASE ACROSS NE ME THIS EVENING AS INITIALLY DRY LOW TO MID LEVELS /E.G. 00Z CAR RAOB/ BECOME EFFECTIVELY SATURATED. LOW/MID LEVEL PROFILES HAVE REMAINED COLDER ACROSS NW ME...WITH PRECIPITATION RATES LIKELY TO FURTHER ENHANCED BY INCREASING MID LEVEL /800MB-600MB/ EAST-WEST FRONTOGENETICAL COMPONENT. AFTER 03Z...SNOW RATES MAY APPROACH 1 IN/HR ACROSS NW ME FOR A FEW HOURS DURATION. ..GUYER.. 12/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BTV...ALY... 44997333 44997232 45027153 45337104 45577062 46127011 46066972 45946941 45226937 44756964 44307047 43877142 43907289 43977462 44927466 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Dec 11 06:14:42 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 11 Dec 2004 01:14:42 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412110616.iBB6Go919050@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 110616 SWOMCD SPC MCD 110615 MEZ000-NHZ000-111015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2537 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1215 AM CST SAT DEC 11 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/NRN ME...AND FAR NRN NH CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION VALID 110615Z - 111015Z WINTRY MIX WILL CONTINUE ACROSS FAR NRN NH AND MUCH OF INTERIOR ME THROUGH 13Z. MOSTLY SNOW IS EXPECTED NEAR PQI/CAR AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NWRN ME. SNOW WILL CHANGE TO SLEET IN A BAND FROM SRN AROOSTOOK COUNTY WSWWD THROUGH CENTRAL SOMERSET AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES DURING 9-11Z TIME PERIOD. FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN IS LIKELY WITH MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF INTERIOR ME. SYNOPTICALLY...HIGH AMPLITUDE...SLOW MOVING 500MB LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE NEWD THROUGH THE UPPER OH RIVER VALLEY. A WARM CONVEYOR BELT WITH A LONG FETCH FROM THE SERN GULF OF MEXICO NNEWD ALONG THE EAST COAST IS EVIDENT...WITH A DRY SLOT EXTENDING FROM THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT NEWD INTO THE CT RIVER VALLEY. SFC MAP AT 05Z INDICATES DOUBLE-BARREL SURFACE LOW WITH SECONDARY CENTER STRENGTHENING JUST SOUTH OF NYC. WARM FRONT EXTENDS EWD FROM LONG ISLAND TO CAPE COD WITH A MESOSCALE COASTAL FRONT FROM CAPE ANN NEWD ALONG THE ME COAST. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM NRN ME THROUGH SRN NH ASSOCIATED WITH WEDGE OF SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES LOCKED IN PLACE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. SURFACE LOW SHOULD TRACK NEWD TO NEAR PWM BY 12Z...WITH SIGNIFICANT 850-700MB WARM ADVECTION EXPECTED TO LIFT NWD DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD INTO MID-MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF ME AND NRN NH. LOW TRACK SHOULD YIELD LIGHT NELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ME MAINTAINING SHALLOW SUB-FREEZING LAYER NEAR THE SFC THROUGH 13Z. INCREASING PRECIPITATION TRENDS ARE NOTED IN MOSAIC RADAR REFLECTIVITY ACROSS NERN MA AND THE GULF OF ME...ASSOCIATED WITH 140KT 300MB JET WHICH IS MOVING RAPIDLY NEWD INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND. LARGE-SCALE FORCING SHOULD BECOME FOCUSED ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN ME DURING THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SUPPORT SNOW ACROSS FAR NRN ME INCLUDING CENTRAL/NRN AROOSTOOK COUNTY...THE ALLAGASH...AND ADJACENT NWRN MTNS. THE 00Z ETA DEVELOPS SIGNIFICANT WARMING ALOFT WITH +6C AT BGR BY 09Z NEAR 825MB. ONGOING ZR WILL CHANGE TO RAIN IN THE COASTAL PLAIN WITH MIXED SLEET/ZR ZONE MIGRATING NWD TO MLT BY 09Z AND HUL BY 11Z. STRONG AXIS OF 700MB DEFORMATION ON NRN EDGE OF WARM ADVECTION SHOULD SUPPORT 1"/HR SNOW RATES ACROSS FAR NRN ME FOR SEVERAL HOURS BETWEEN ROUGHLY 08-12Z BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. ..BANACOS.. 12/11/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX... 47456926 47426851 47266814 46966786 45436773 44946837 44766881 44336971 44177042 44207082 44377101 44527123 44607126 44827133 45167111 45637065 46576998 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Dec 13 18:00:36 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 13 Dec 2004 13:00:36 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412131802.iBDI2r917310@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 131802 SWOMCD SPC MCD 131801 INZ000-MIZ000-132200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2538 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1201 PM CST MON DEC 13 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SW LOWER MI/FAR NCNTRL IN CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION VALID 131801Z - 132200Z ORGANIZED BAND OF MDT/OCNLY HVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT SSWWD ACROSS VAN BUREN/KALAMAZOO/CASS/ST. JOSEPH/ERN BERRIEN COUNTIES OF SW LOWER MI...AND ST. JOSEPH/ELKHART/WRN LAGRANGE COUNTIES OF NCNTRL IN THROUGH 00Z. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-1.5 IN/HR WILL BE POSSIBLE. LATEST SFC MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS SFC TROUGH AXIS/WIND SHIFT TRANSITIONING SWD ACROSS SRN LOWER MI...ROUGHLY INVOF OF I-96/I-94 CORRIDOR AT 18Z. ALONG/BEHIND THIS TROUGH...A NW SHIFT IN THE SFC WINDS HAS YIELDED A MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL NNW FLOW REGIME IN THE LOWEST FEW KM...RESULTING IN AN ORGANIZED LES BAND FROM NEAR BIV /HOLLAND/ TO AZO /KALAMAZOO/. AS SFC TROUGH CONTINUES TO PROGRESS SWD...BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW EXPECTED TO ALSO SHIFT SSWWD ACROSS FAR SW LOWER MI AND FAR NCNTRL IN. THIS SCENARIO IS IN ACCORDANCE WITH 15Z RUC AND EXPERIMENTAL 4KM WRF GUIDANCE. ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY DRIER MID LEVEL AIR WILL BE ENTRAINED THIS AFTERNOON...15Z RUC POINT FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FAVORABLE DENDRITIC LAYER WILL BE MAINTAINED NEAR TOP OF INVERSION AT AROUND 6-6.5K FT. THUS POSSIBILITY FOR SNOWFALL RATES AS HIGH AS 1-1.5 IN/HR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ..GUYER.. 12/13/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR... 42538616 42328562 41968544 41678542 41438557 41498650 41888660 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Dec 13 19:10:56 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 13 Dec 2004 14:10:56 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412131913.iBDJDD918580@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 131912 SWOMCD SPC MCD 131912 PAZ000-NYZ000-OHZ000-132315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2539 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0112 PM CST MON DEC 13 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...OH/PA/NY LAKE SHORE OF LAKE ERIE CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION VALID 131912Z - 132315Z MDT/OCNLY HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INVOF FAR NE OH/NW PA/WRN NY ERIE LAKE SHORE...DEVELOPING SWD AWAY FROM IMMEDIATE LAKE SHORE OWING TO ONSET OF NWLY BOUNDARY LAYER TRAJECTORIES BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL RATES AS HIGH AS 1.5-2.0 HR WILL BE POSSIBLE. AMIDST CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY...FETCH OF STRONG W/SW WINDS CURRENTLY MAINTAINING MDT/OCNLY HEAVY LES IN IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF LAKE ERIE SHORE FROM FAR NE OH INTO CHAUTAUQUA/ERIE COUNTIES OF NY. HOWEVER WITH PASSAGE OF LOW LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS FAR SW ONTARIO/NRN LAKE ERIE...15Z RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TRANSITION TO NWLY /APPROX 320 DEG/ LOW LEVEL FLOW BY 21Z-23Z FROM NE OH INTO ERIE LAKE SHORE OF NY. THIS SCENARIO SHOULD YIELD A WWD DEVELOPMENT/EXPANSION OF HEAVIER SNOW ACROSS CUYAHOGA/LORAIN COUNTIES OF OH THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON...WHILE ALSO SPREADING INCREASED SNOWFALL SWD INTO AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE LAKE ERIE SHORE. ..GUYER.. 12/13/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE... 42467936 42437907 42057932 41787976 41578004 41288076 41248119 41278204 41478203 41818119 42088012 42307961 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Dec 14 00:29:55 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 13 Dec 2004 19:29:55 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412140032.iBE0WB929639@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 140031 SWOMCD SPC MCD 140031 INZ000-MIZ000-140430- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2540 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0631 PM CST MON DEC 13 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SW LOWER MI/FAR NCNTRL IN CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION VALID 140031Z - 140430Z MDT/OCNLY HEAVY LES BAND EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS WRN ALLEGAN/WRN VAN BUREN/ERN BERRIEN/CASS COUNTIES MI INTO ST JOSEPH/ELKHART COUNTIES IN THROUGH 06Z...WITH SNOWFALL RATES AS HIGH AS 1.5 IN/HR POSSIBLE. SINGLE LES BAND HAS REMAIN ORGANIZED INTO EARLY EVENING ACROSS FAR SW LOWER MI/FAR NCNTRL IN...FROM BIV /HOLLAND/ LAKESHORE TO NEAR SBN AND GSH /GOSHEN/. LATEST GRR WSR-88D VAD PORTRAYS NNWLY WINDS OF 20-30 KTS WITHIN CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER...LARGELY UNCHANGED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. 21Z RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS NNWLY WINDS NEAR TOP OF CONVECTIVE LAYER /AROUND 6000 FT/ MAY GRADUALLY BECOME MORE NWLY AROUND/AFTER 03Z...ALTHOUGH WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS WELL. IN ALL...ORGANIZED LES BAND EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE THROUGH 06Z. ..GUYER.. 12/14/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR... 42788626 42618608 42108588 41658562 41428560 41428595 41888629 42218647 42388645 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Dec 18 18:39:25 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 18 Dec 2004 13:39:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412181841.iBIIfNbj005877@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 181840 SWOMCD SPC MCD 181840 MIZ000-WIZ000-182245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2541 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1240 PM CST SAT DEC 18 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...UPPER PENINSULA OF MI/FAR NRN WI CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 181840Z - 182245Z LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE WRN UPPER PENINSULA OF MI AND FAR NRN WI WITH BRIEF HEAVY SNOW RATES OF UP TO 2"/HR. LAKE ENHANCED SNOW BANDS WILL AFFECT THE LOWER PENINSULA THIS AFTN. LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES ARCTIC FRONT EXTENDS FROM SFC LOW IN NERN ONTARIO SWWD ALONG ISQ/GRB/ISW LINE. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS N/S LAKE EFFECT SNOWBANDS FROM WRN LAKE SUPERIOR EWD. HOWEVER RADAR IMAGERY ACROSS THE CNTRL U.P. OF MI SUGGESTS BANDS ARE DISORGANIZED...LIKELY DUE TO WEAK LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. RUC OBSERVATIONAL ANALYSIS SHOWS CURRENT TEMPS AT 850 MB ARE AROUND -10C TO -15C ACROSS NRN WI/WRN U.P. OF MI. UPPER TROUGH AXIS...NOTED AS A DARKENING AREA IN WV IMAGERY ACROSS THE MN ARROWHEAD...WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY TONIGHT...ENHANCING LARGE SCALE LIFT. TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB ARE FORECAST TO DROP BETWEEN 5-10 DEGREES C BY 19/00Z...RESULTING IN MORE FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW THIS AFTN/TONIGHT. THE HIGHEST SNOW RATES OVER THE NEXT 4 HOURS OR SO WILL LIKELY EXTEND FROM VILAS/ONTONAGON/HOUGHTON COUNTIES ON THE WEST...TO MARQUETTE/DICKINSON ON THE EAST. FETCH OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL FAVOR AREAS WHERE NLY SFC WINDS ARE STRONGEST. MEANWHILE...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN LIGHT-MOD SNOW ACROSS THE LOWER PENINSULA OF MI. HEAVY SNOW RATES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THIS AREA UNTIL LATER THIS AFTN/TONIGHT. ..TAYLOR.. 12/18/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB... 45788866 45878947 46298949 46818885 46978821 46758740 46538715 46148743 46048763 45918823 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Dec 19 00:58:18 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 18 Dec 2004 19:58:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412190100.iBJ10Hor001534@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 190059 SWOMCD SPC MCD 190059 MIZ000-190500- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2542 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0659 PM CST SAT DEC 18 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...UPPER PENINSULA OF MI CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 190059Z - 190500Z ...OCCASIONALLY HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE U.P. OF MI TONIGHT...WITH SNOW RATES UP TO 2"/HR... RECENT RADAR IMAGERY FROM MARQUETTE AND DULUTH SHOW MULTIPLE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS WITH A FAVORED NLY FETCH OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUGGEST THESE BANDS WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL ONLY INCREASE THIS EVENING...AS ARCTIC AIRMASS BECOMES MORE ENTRENCHED. VWP DATA INDICATE A NLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE THROUGH AT LEAST 3 KM...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THIS WILL DEEPEN TO AROUND 500 MB BY 03Z. IN ADDITION VERY STRONG SFC WINDS OF 20-30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY LOCALLY TO LESS THAN A MILE AT TIMES THIS EVENING. HEAVIER SNOW BANDS WILL LIKELY DIMINISH EARLIER ACROSS THE ERN PORTION OF THE PENINSULA ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE/CAA WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. ..TAYLOR.. 12/19/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...APX...MQT... 45888508 45868567 46008737 46578877 47178849 47418797 46688530 46508471 46218466 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Dec 19 05:33:15 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 19 Dec 2004 00:33:15 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412190535.iBJ5ZH5b025938@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 190533 SWOMCD SPC MCD 190532 INZ000-MIZ000-190930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2543 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1132 PM CST SAT DEC 18 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NRN IND AND FAR SWRN MI CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 190532Z - 190930Z LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS FAR NRN IND AND FAR SWRN MI THROUGH 19/11Z. SNOW RATES UP TO 2"/HR POSSIBLE AT TIMES OVER LOCALIZED AREAS EXPERIENCING STRONGEST BANDS. STRONG LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE SRN GREAT LAKES REGION AS ARCTIC BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM WRN LAKE ERIE SWWD ACROSS NWRN OH TO CENTRAL IL CONTINUES TO PUSH SEWD. RUC INDICATES 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -10C WILL FALL TO AROUND -20C BY 12Z ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. COUPLED WITH LAKE TEMPERATURES AROUND +6C AND A LONG NLY FETCH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN...LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWS. DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS MINIMAL PER CHICAGO VAD THROUGH 2.5KM...AND ETA MODEL WINDS INDICATE LITTLE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR THROUGH 11Z ACROSS FAR NRN IND...WHICH SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF A SINGLE INTENSE BAND DEVELOPING OVER SRN LAKE MICHIGAN DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...INVERSION HEIGHTS REMAIN IN 8-9KFT RANGE PER ETA FORECAST MAINTAINING SIGNIFICANT DEPTH OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE LAKE AND FORECAST OF LOCALIZED 1-2"/HR RATES BETWEEN 6-11Z. RUC IS SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS AROUND 7KFT. MEAN BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD REMAIN 350-355 DEG AT 30KTS BEFORE VEERING BETWEEN 10-12Z TO 360-005 DEG. ..BANACOS.. 12/19/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...IWX...LOT... 41658707 41628728 41668748 41318745 41248735 41228702 41348660 41598643 41988639 42188639 41888664 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Dec 19 11:07:31 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 19 Dec 2004 06:07:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412191109.iBJB9TBI032625@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 191108 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191108 INZ000-MIZ000-OHZ000-191615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2544 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0508 AM CST SUN DEC 19 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NW IND AND SWRN MI...NERN OH CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 191108Z - 191615Z HEAVIEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL SHIFT SLOWLY OUT OF EXTREME SWRN MI LATER THIS MORNING...WHILE GRADUALLY MOVING WWD OVER NWRN IND AND INTENSIFYING THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. SNOW BANDS SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED IN THE WAKE OF ARCTIC FROPA ACROSS NERN OH. NLY FETCH ACROSS LH WILL BE FURTHER ENHANCED BY SHORT FETCH ACROSS LE TO RESULT IN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW ALONG THE SRN SHORE OF LE INTO THE AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL RATES WITHIN THE CORE OF THE MOST INTENSE SNOW BANDS COULD EXCEED 2 IN/HR. LATEST MESOANALYSIS WAS SHOWING A THERMALLY-INDUCED SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE SRN TIP OF LM NWD TO SRN LS. THIS FEATURE HAS ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE FROM THE U.P. OF MI SWD ACROSS THE N-S FETCH OF LM WHERE A SINGLE LONG-FETCH SNOW BAND CONTINUES TO EVOLVE EARLY TODAY. STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE MAXIMIZED OVER SRN LM OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH LAKE SURFACE TO 850MB DELTA-T VALUES IN THE EXTREME RANGE AROUND 30C. THIS STRONG LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH A RISING INVERSION AND LIMITED DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT INTENSE LAKE EFFECT SNOW OFF SRN LM. LATEST 4KM WRF WAS FCSTG A WWD SHIFT TO THE SINGLE BAND ACROSS SRN LM AND RECENT RADAR TRENDS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THIS FCST. THIS WWD SHIFT IS FURTHER SUPPORTED BY SLOW WWD SHIFT TO THE THERMAL TROUGH AXIS...MORE TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF LM OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE HEAVIEST SNOW BECOMING INCREASINGLY FOCUSED ACROSS NWRN IND INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. FARTHER EAST...ACROSS NERN OH...SNOW BANDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME BETTER DEFINED FROM LH SWD ACROSS LE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. AS THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE ACROSS LS AND LM SHIFT EAST WITH THE LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL ARCTIC AIRMASS...LAKE EFFECT SNOW OFF OF LAKE ERIE SHOULD INTENSIFY INTO THE AFTERNOON. ..CARBIN.. 12/19/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...CLE... 41618739 41298750 40988735 40898715 40738658 40718619 41248599 41548600 41718597 41968613 42088651 41788670 41728144 41888076 41648081 41218132 41038161 41048181 41178229 41288239 41378246 41538189 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Dec 19 18:05:32 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 19 Dec 2004 13:05:32 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412191807.iBJI7SZp025371@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 191806 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191805 MDZ000-PAZ000-WVZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-192200- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2545 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1205 PM CST SUN DEC 19 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SW PA THROUGH THE SRN APPALACHIANS CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 191805Z - 192200Z HEAVY SNOW RATES OF 1-2"/HR ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTN MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM SW PA/WV THROUGH THE SRN APPALACHIANS. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM JUST EAST OF STATE COLLEGE PA TO HILLSVILLE VA AND ASHEVILLE NC. BEHIND THIS FRONT...A VERY COLD AIRMASS WILL ADVECT QUICKLY SEWD...WITH SFC TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW FREEZING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. AT UPPER LEVELS...LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS SHARP TROUGH AXIS NOW MOVING THROUGH THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY. LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG PVA/HEIGHT FALLS WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE WILL RESULT IN SNOW EVEN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. UPSLOPE FLOW WILL FURTHER ENHANCE SNOWFALL RATES ESPECIALLY ON NW FACING SLOPES AS SFC WINDS VEER BEHIND THE FRONT. POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE STEEPENING LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE AFTN AS 850MB TEMPS DROP 5C OR MORE BY 20/00Z. ..TAYLOR.. 12/19/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC... 38247967 36158148 34808324 35218421 36008383 37238264 38488151 40747971 40747933 40617864 39467900 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Dec 20 00:52:10 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 19 Dec 2004 19:52:10 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412200054.iBK0s5rX007625@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 200052 SWOMCD SPC MCD 200052 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-200645- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2546 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0652 PM CST SUN DEC 19 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME ERN ND/NWRN MN CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION VALID 200052Z - 200645Z SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NWRN MN SPREADING INTO THE MN ARROWHEAD AFTER MIDNIGHT. STRONG S WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH MAY CREATE WHITEOUT CONDITIONS TONIGHT. THREAT ALSO EXISTS FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/SLEET DEVELOPING. LATEST ANALYSIS PLACES WARM FRONT ACROSS THE CNTRL DAKOTAS ROUGHLY EAST OF A MINOT ND/PHILLIPS SD LINE. CURRENT SFC TEMPERATURES IN THE WRN DAKOTAS HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID 40S TO 50 IN RAP CITY AS OF 20/00Z...WHILE TEMPS EAST OF THE FRONT ARE IN THE TEENS. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS ALREADY DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT/WAA ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG WARM FRONT. ADDITIONALLY...THERE IS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING THROUGH CNTRL ALBERTA AND LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL BE FURTHER ENHANCED ON NOSE OF APPROACHING 100+ KT UPPER JET. FIRST WAVE OF SNOW WHICH IS ONGOING WILL MOVE ACROSS NRN MN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT ETA/RUC DEPICT A FRONTAL PCPN BAND DEVELOPING BETWEEN 03-06Z WHICH MAY AFFECT EXTREME ERN ND AND NRN MN OVERNIGHT. WITH A 50+ KT LOW LEVEL JET AND RAPIDLY WARMING 850MB TEMPS...SOME QUESTION EXISTS FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING TOWARD 06Z. 00Z OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM BISMARCK HAS 850MB TEMPS NEAR 8C WITH ABERDEEN NEAR 4C. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME SLEET IS THE MOST LIKELY POSSIBILITY. HOWEVER...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES INDICATE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN COULD DEVELOP IF FORECAST 850MB TEMPS RISE TO 3-4C WHICH WOULD MELT FROZEN PRECIPITATION AT THAT LEVEL. SFC TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW FREEZING...SO SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER NRN MN. ..TAYLOR.. 12/20/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR... 46209386 45779665 46849722 48929704 49509593 49559417 49149319 47339328 46669352 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Dec 20 00:54:14 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 19 Dec 2004 19:54:14 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412200056.iBK0u8vD009240@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 200055 SWOMCD SPC MCD 200055 MEZ000-NHZ000-MAZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-200500- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2547 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0655 PM CST SUN DEC 19 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NY/NH/VT INTO WRN MA/CT CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 200055Z - 200500Z BRIEF HEAVY PERIOD OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING WITH RATES OF 1"/HR. ARCTIC COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM ERN NH/WRN MA SWD INTO THE COASTAL WATERS OFF THE NJ COAST. LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH AXIS NOW LOCATED ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN APPALACHIANS. WITH VERY COLD AIRMASS ADVECTING INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT...PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY SNOW INLAND. AS SFC LOW DEEPENS OFF THE COAST...INCREASING CONVERGENCE ALONG THE 850MB FRONT COMBINED WITH DIFFERENTIAL DIVERGENCE THROUGH A DEEP LAYER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A BAND OF MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL EXTENDING FROM LONG ISLAND/CT INTO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF VT/NH. ..TAYLOR.. 12/20/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY... 44337282 43717308 41857383 40527394 40547289 42477151 45087091 45127164 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Dec 20 07:01:50 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 20 Dec 2004 02:01:50 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412200703.iBK73hgt018510@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 200703 SWOMCD SPC MCD 200702 MIZ000-WIZ000-MNZ000-201130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2548 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0102 AM CST MON DEC 20 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MN...NRN WI...WRN U.P. OF MI CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 200702Z - 201130Z MDT TO HVY SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD EWD FROM THE ARROWHEAD OF MN ACROSS THE WRN PARTS OF LS...NRN WI...AND THE WRN U.P. OF MI THROUGH DAYBREAK. SNOWFALL RATES AROUND 1 INCH PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE AREAS FOR UP TO A 3-4 HOUR PERIOD. DEEP SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER SRN MANITOBA WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY TODAY AS A STRONG MID LEVEL IMPULSE TRANSLATES ESE ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES AND NRN PLAINS. IN RESPONSE TO THIS LARGE SCALE FORCING...STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND INTENSE LOW THROUGH MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION HAVE DEVELOPED RAPIDLY ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND THE UPPER MS VALLEY EARLY TODAY. ETA AND SREF GUIDANCE HAS CAPTURED THIS PROCESS QUITE WELL AND SUGGEST THAT STRONGEST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE AND MOVE EWD FROM THE MN ARROWHEAD OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS. DESPITE RELATIVELY LIMITED DEEP MOISTURE WITH SOUNDINGS INDICATING DRIER AIR ALOFT...STRONG FORCING AND VERY COLD SURFACE-BASED AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN MDT TO HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES WITHIN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION BAND AS IT MOVES EAST. FURTHERMORE...LIQUID TO SNOW RATIOS GREATER THAN 10 TO 1 SHOULD RESULT IN A RELATIVELY BRIEF BUT INTENSE PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW. PRECIPITATION SHIELD APPEARS TO BE OUTRUNNING LOW LEVEL WARM NOSE AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE THREAT OF MIXED PRECIPITATION/FREEZING RAIN. ..CARBIN.. 12/20/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...MPX... 48489171 48169041 47888908 47578840 46468739 45788764 45728826 45578921 45509027 45509082 45769217 46209271 47169296 47959299 48219307 48509270 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Dec 20 11:27:49 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 20 Dec 2004 06:27:49 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412201129.iBKBThg9010136@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 201129 SWOMCD SPC MCD 201128 WIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-201630- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2549 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0528 AM CST MON DEC 20 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IA...SRN MN...WRN WI CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION VALID 201128Z - 201630Z WINTER WEATHER HAZARDS INCLUDING ICE PELLETS AND MDT TO HVY SNOW ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS PARTS OF NRN IA...SRN MN...AND WRN WI FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. ICE PELLETS APPEAR TO BE PRIMARY THREAT OVER WRN MN THIS MORNING WHILE A NARROW AXIS OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL...WITH RATES APPROACHING 1 INCH PER HOUR...MAY DEVELOP FROM SERN MN INTO WRN WI BY AFTERNOON. LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS DEPICTING COOLING CLOUD TOPS WITHIN A DEVELOPING SMALL-SCALE BAROCLINIC LEAF ACROSS NERN SD AND CNTRL MN. THIS FEATURE APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO STRONG IMPULSE AND MID/UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK SPREADING EAST FROM ERN WY THIS MORNING. LATEST RUC AND 06Z ETA ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION INCREASING FROM ERN SD INTO SRN MN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WAS ALREADY OCCURRING ACROSS THIS AREA WITH INITIAL ROUND OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT-INDUCED MDT/HVY SNOW NOW MOVING EAST ACROSS WI. CONTINUED MOISTENING/WARMING WITHIN TRAILING ZONE OF LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS SRN MN...COUPLED WITH INTENSIFYING SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING FOR DEEP ASCENT...SHOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN WINTER PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. FORECAST THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SUPPORT SNOW FROM SERN MN ACROSS WI. HOWEVER...ACROSS WRN MN AND PARTS OF NWRN IA...PRONOUNCED WARM NOSE WITH 850MB WET BULB TEMPERATURES 4-6C SHOULD RESULT IN A MIXTURE OF ICE PELLETS ACROSS THESE AREAS...POSSIBLY CHANGING BACK TO SNOW LATER TODAY. ..CARBIN.. 12/20/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...GRB...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD... 45379065 44438957 43819044 43379486 43729610 44659604 45299351 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Dec 21 17:26:25 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 21 Dec 2004 12:26:25 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412211728.iBLHSpoR032016@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 211728 SWOMCD SPC MCD 211728 TXZ000-211900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2555 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1128 AM CST TUE DEC 21 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...UPPER TX COAST AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 211728Z - 211900Z TSTMS HAVE BEEN INCREASING ALONG THE UPPER TX COAST FROM NEAR KIAH TO KGLS AND FROM 60-90 NM OFFSHORE KGLS THIS MORNING. THE STORMS ARE PROBABLY BEING AIDED BY WEAK LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MIGRATING ACROSS SERN TX. MESOANALYSIS PLACES A 1012 MB LOW JUST SOUTH OF GALVESTON ISLAND WITH THE COASTAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER TX COAST SWD ACROSS THE WRN GULF BASIN. TONGUE OF LOW-MID 60S DEW POINTS HAS ADVECTED NWD ALONG THIS TROUGH BENEATH STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE H7-H5 LAYER. THOUGH STRONGER INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN OFFSHORE SUPPORTING THE STRONGER TSTMS/SUPERCELLS...INSOLATION ALONG THE COAST...RELATIVELY COOL TROPOSPHERE AND 30 KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SOME STORM ORGANIZATION INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...BUT AN ISOLD TORNADO IS POSSIBLE. FUNNEL CLOUDS WERE OBSERVED EARLIER THIS MORNING OFFSHORE OF GALVESTON ISLAND. FARTHER S WHERE GREATER INSTABILITY IS BEING OBSERVED...THE THREATS FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND WATERSPOUTS WILL CONTINUE. THESE STORMS SHOULD STAY OFFSHORE...BUT LEFT SPLITS COULD MOVE ONSHORE WITH HAIL POSSIBLE. ..RACY.. 12/21/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX... 29019527 30049529 30189410 29139384 28599410 28439493 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Dec 22 00:34:45 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 21 Dec 2004 19:34:45 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412220037.iBM0bA34026965@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 220036 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220035 ILZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-220430- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2556 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0635 PM CST TUE DEC 21 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...S-CENTRAL/SERN MO AND SRN IL CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION VALID 220035Z - 220430Z MIXED WINTER PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS S-CENTRAL/SERN MO ENEWD INTO SRN IL BETWEEN 03-06Z. INITIAL RAINFALL WILL MIX WITH AND GRADUALLY CHANGE TO SNOW FROM NW TO SE...WITH LOCALIZED MOD/HVY SNOW POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT. AT 22/00Z...SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL IND SWWD ACROSS SRN MO INTO CENTRAL OK...WITH SURFACE WET BULB FREEZING LINE TRAILING THE BOUNDARY BY 30-40NM. COLD AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER SWD ACROSS SRN MO/SRN IL THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS. MEANWHILE...MOIST FLOW FROM THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO STREAM NWD IN ADVANCE OF SURFACE LOW OVER NERN TX. WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN AR...OVER THE TOP OF A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING NEWD FROM THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL AR. MID-LEVEL FLOW FIELD IS PROGGED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY FRONTOGENETIC ON NRN EDGE OF WARM ADVECTION IN 850-700MB LAYER. THESE TRENDS ARE ALREADY UNDERWAY WITH A NOTED INCREASE IN RADAR REFLECTIVITY OVER SERN MO/SRN IL IN VICINITY OF MODERATELY STRONG 700MB BAROCLINIC ZONE. DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SLOW ONSET OF PRECIP...BUT WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG EVAPORATIVE COOLING AT LOW-LEVELS RESULTING A FAVORABLE PROFILES FOR SNOW. COMBINED WITH COLD ADVECTION...PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW BETWEEN 03-06Z WITH RAIN-SNOW LINE ADVANCING SEWD TOWARD FAR SERN MO AND FAR SRN IL LATE TONIGHT. ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY LEAD TO BURSTS OF HEAVY SNOW BY 06Z ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA AS MARGINAL INSTABILITY AROUND LIT /MUCAPE 100 J/KG/ ADVECTS NEWD DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ..BANACOS.. 12/22/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...SGF... 36509247 36559290 36659306 36849285 37099248 37459183 37879065 38408924 38418886 38438806 38188803 37738824 37328872 37168912 36509027 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Dec 22 00:44:57 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 21 Dec 2004 19:44:57 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412220047.iBM0lMa0031007@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 220046 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220046 ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-220245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2557 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0646 PM CST TUE DEC 21 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ARKLATEX CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS VALID 220046Z - 220245Z ...THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION... THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED ALONG WRN EDGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE PLUME...IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF SFC FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS ROOTED IN/NEAR THE BOUNDARY LAYER BASED ON 00Z SOUNDING DATA FROM FWD/SHV. LATEST DIAGNOSTIC FIELDS SUGGEST MARGINAL CLOUD LAYER LAPSE RATES ARE YIELDING MUCAPES ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG. LARGE SCALE WARM ADVECTION SHOULD MAINTAIN THIS ACTIVITY WITH A TENDENCY FOR ADDITIONAL...SLIGHTLY ELEVATED...UPDRAFTS TO EVOLVE NEWD INTO AR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS THIS REGION GIVEN THE THERMAL PROFILES OBSERVED. ..DARROW.. 12/22/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...HGX...FWD... 31889578 33619488 34849347 34379253 32799337 31169468 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Dec 22 05:46:37 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 22 Dec 2004 00:46:37 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412220549.iBM5n3kZ020377@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 220545 SWOMCD SPC MCD 220544 OKZ000-TXZ000-221145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2558 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1144 PM CST TUE DEC 21 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN TX PANHANDLE...TX SOUTH PLAINS NEWD INTO SWRN OK CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 220544Z - 221145Z HVY SNOW WITH HOURLY ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 1 INCH ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 06-09Z OVER THE SRN TX PANHANDLE/FAR NWRN TX...AND BETWEEN 09-12Z OVER SWRN OK. THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW IS ANTICIPATED TO BE ROUGHLY 20 MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE PVW TO CDS TO LAW DURING THIS PERIOD. RADAR RETURNS FROM KAMA INDICATES LOW-MID LEVEL SATURATION WAS OCCURRING FAIRLY QUICKLY AS MID LVL LOW ROTATES OUT OF NM. THIS TREND SHOULD SUPPORT SNOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SWRN TX PANHANDLE/NRN TX SOUTH PLAINS REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STRONGEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH DEFORMATION ZONE IN THE 700-600 MB LAYER COINCIDENT WITH THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF HVY SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AS THE MID LEVEL LOW MIGRATES FROM CENTRAL NM INTO THE SERN TX PANHANDLE BY 12Z. MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IS ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN AS STRONG MID LEVEL SPEED MAX OVER SRN NM/FAR WRN TX ROTATES NEWD INTO NWRN TX. AXIS OF STRONGEST MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING SHOULD DEVELOP ROUGHLY ALONG THE MID LEVEL LOW PATH FROM NEAR LBB TO CDS TO LAW THROUGH 12Z. 05Z SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT SFC DEWPT DEPRESSIONS REMAIN FROM 10-15 DEG F WHICH ALONG WITH ABOUT A 100-150 MB DEEP DRY LAYER ABOVE SFC SHOULD LIMIT INITIAL DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSITY OF SNOW UNDER THE STRONG MID LEVEL FORCING. DESPITE A CONTINUATION OF LOW LVL DRY AIR ADVECTING IN ON NELY SFC WINDS...SUFFICIENTLY STRONG PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OFFSET THE DRYING WHICH WILL SUPPORT HVY SNOWFALL AT THE SFC WITHIN 1-2 HOURS OF LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPMENT. DEGREE OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH BANDED PRECIP ALONG WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7 DEG C/KM WILL SUPPORT CONVECTIVE SNOWFALL RATES AROUND 1 INCH/HR. ..CROSBIE.. 12/22/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA... 34870112 34580237 34240284 33930284 33720231 33910062 34329819 34919822 35069945  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Dec 25 00:34:20 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 24 Dec 2004 19:34:20 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412250036.iBP0aoFN001247@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 250036 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250035 TXZ000-250630- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2573 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0635 PM CST FRI DEC 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...DEEP SOUTH TX CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION VALID 250035Z - 250630Z A MIXTURE OF SLEET AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. HRLY SNOWFALL RATES AROUND 0.50 IN/HR ARE EXPECTED. BROAD AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES WITH CONVECTIVE SHOWERS BREAKING OUT. 00Z CRP SOUNDING CONFIRMS CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY ROOTED NEAR 700 MB WITH SUB-ZERO TEMPERATURES BELOW SO THUNDER SLEET/SNOW WILL CONTINUE. 00Z CRP AND BRO SOUNDINGS SHOW WARM LAYER ALOFT NEAR 700 MB...BUT THIS LAYER WILL COOL THROUGH THE EVENING AS TROUGH APPROACHES FROM WEST. LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL ALSO INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AND WILL HELP ORGANIZE PRECIPITATION INTO SW-NE ORIENTED BANDS. THE HEAVIEST RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE FROM 02-05Z NRN AND WRN AREAS...AND FROM 05-09Z SERN AREAS INCLUDING BRO. ..JEWELL.. 12/25/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO... 27039927 27399917 28039903 28719825 28749728 28309661 27429730 26769744 25939718 25969761 26079819 26389892 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Dec 25 05:50:33 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 25 Dec 2004 00:50:33 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412250553.iBP5r3JV007256@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 250552 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250551 TXZ000-251045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2574 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1151 PM CST FRI DEC 24 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN TX THROUGH THE COASTAL BEND CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 250551Z - 251045Z ...HEAVY SNOW RATES OF 1-2"/HR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 09Z WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVERNIGHT... NARROW AXIS OF HEAVY SNOW HAS DEVELOPED FROM AROUND BAY CITY SW TO VICTORIA. RECENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THIS BAND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE PRODUCING MOD/HEAVY SNOW BEFORE DIMINISHING BETWEEN 09-12Z. UPPER LOW CIRCULATION NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS ROUGHLY 120 NM WSW LRD AND WILL MOVE TO NEAR CRP BY 12Z. THIS WILL PLACE THE MIDDLE/UPPER COASTAL PLAIN IN THE STRONGEST PVA ZONE AND...CORRESPONDINGLY...THE AREA WITH THE STRONGEST UVV. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SUPPORT HEAVY SNOW RATES GIVEN A DEEP DENDRITIC ZONE AND STRONG DYNAMICAL LIFT. FARTHER SOUTH...MULTIPLE TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS PRESENT ON THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR BRO/PIL WILL RESULT IN A MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW. ..TAYLOR.. 12/25/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...BRO... 29459635 29039739 28019879 26219850 25919721 27259742 27949702 28609597 28889534 29189484 29499502 29709522 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Dec 25 06:32:16 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 25 Dec 2004 01:32:16 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412250634.iBP6Ykwa021407@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 250634 SWOMCD SPC MCD 250633 MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-251230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2575 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1233 AM CST SAT DEC 25 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN UPPER COASTAL PLAIN OF SE TX/SRN LA CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION VALID 250633Z - 251230Z ...POTENTIAL FOR SNOW/SLEET DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN LA BEFORE 12Z... LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS FREEZING LINE EXTENDS FROM OCH/JAS/ARA/HSA AS OF 06Z. RECENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING ALOFT...WITH PRECIPITATION BEING REPORTED AT THE SFC AS FAR EAST AS NEW ORLEANS. WITH UPSTREAM VORT MAX QUICKLY APPROACHING THE AREA...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TIME BEFORE LOW LEVELS BECOME SATURATED. CONVECTIVE CELLS ARE PRECIPITATING INTO THE LOWER LAYERS...VIA A SEEDER/FEEDER TYPE PROCESS AND EFFECTIVELY COOLING/MOISTENING THE LAYER. CURRENT DEWPOINTS ARE LOW...GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 20S WITH WETBULB ZERO TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING AS WELL. 00Z ETA IS ALREADY TOO SLOW IN DEVELOPING THE WAA PRECIPITATION FIELD...GIVEN CURRENT RADAR/SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES YIELD MAINLY SNOW WITH POSSIBLY SOME SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN MIXING IN. HOWEVER THE COMBINATION OF STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND STRONG DYNAMICAL FORCING SHOULD COOL THE COLUMN SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT ALL FROZEN PRECIPITATION. ..TAYLOR.. 12/25/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...HGX... 29469462 29939495 30679418 30839338 30819179 30739068 30498969 30198901 29338950 29209050 29649275 29789320 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Dec 25 12:52:06 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 25 Dec 2004 07:52:06 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412251254.iBPCsawn013006@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 251252 SWOMCD SPC MCD 251252 ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-251745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2576 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0652 AM CST SAT DEC 25 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LA/SRN MS/EXTREME SW AL CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION VALID 251252Z - 251745Z ...POTENTIAL FOR SNOW/SLEET/FZRA ACROSS PORTIONS OF SERN LA INTO SRN MS... VIGOROUS UPPER LOW IS NOW MOVING NEWD AWAY FROM SERN TX COAST...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW JUST ABOUT ENDED ACROSS THE TX MIDDLE COASTAL PLAIN WHERE RECORD AMOUNTS OF SNOW FELL OVERNIGHT. MAIN PRECIP BAND HAS REMAINED OFFSHORE...LIMITING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SLEET/SNOW TO SRN LA THUS FAR. 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDING AT LCH SHOWS SIGNIFICANT DRY LAYER FROM THE SFC-800MB. IF THE ETA/RUC QPF FORECASTS ARE CORRECT...THEN THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE LIMITING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW OR EVEN ICE ACCUMULATION FARTHER INLAND. HOWEVER...UPPER LOW IS STILL WINDING UP AS IT EXITS S TX...AND RECENT RADAR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT BAND OF HEAVIER PRECIP EXTENDING FROM VERMILLION BAY SWWD WILL TRANSLATE INTO SRN LA OR THAT ANOTHER BAND WILL EVOLVE. TEMPERATURE FORECASTS AT 850MB WILL MAINLY BE ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA WHICH WOULD LIMIT SNOW POTENTIAL. CURRENT SFC TEMPS ARE AT OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MOST OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...AND WITH LOW DEWPOINTS AND WET BULB TEMPS HOVERING JUST BELOW FREEZING...SFC TEMPERATURES ARE NOT LIKELY TO RISE MUCH...SO FZRA IS A DEFINITE CONCERN. IF STRONG DYNAMIC COOLING CAN ERODE THE WARMER AIR JUST ABOVE THE SFC...A BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW/SLEET COULD DEVELOP NEAR PTN/MOB PARTICULARLY AFTER 18Z AS DEPICTED BY THE LATEST RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS/PTYPE. ..TAYLOR.. 12/25/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH... 31188776 30679081 30029260 29349266 29169172 29218968 29608845 30758739  From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Dec 25 18:50:24 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 25 Dec 2004 13:50:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412251852.iBPIqrJG027565@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 251852 SWOMCD SPC MCD 251851 FLZ000-252045- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2577 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1251 PM CST SAT DEC 25 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 251851Z - 252045Z SEVERE TSTM PROBABILITIES WILL BE INCREASING RAPIDLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/MOVE INTO PARTS OF SRN FL WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS/TORNADOES. A WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY LATE AFTERNOON. PRESSURE FALLS HAVE BEEN INCREASING ACROSS SRN FL AND 18Z MESOANALYSIS/WEBCAMS INDICATE THAT MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS HAS SPREAD INLAND PAST THE KEYS AND INTO INLAND MONROE/BROWARD COUNTIES. CONTINUED HEATING SHOULD ALLOW THE WARM FRONT TO JUMP TO NAPLES-NORTH OF VERO BEACH LINE BY 21Z. 18Z SPECIAL RAOBS FROM KMFL/KEYW PORTRAY THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INCREASE WELL AND AIR MASS HAS CONTINUED TO DESTABILIZE WITH CURRENT MLCAPES 1000-1500 J/KG. MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE SOMEWHAT POOR...AND SUGGESTS THAT WARM SECTOR CUMULUS DEVELOPING VCNTY WARM FRONT ATTM MAY TAKE A WHILE TO GROW INTO TSTMS. BUT...ISOLD TSTMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. 18Z SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATED THAT THE LOW/DEEP LAYER SHEAR HAS BECOME FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS GIVEN A STORM. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD ONLY INCREASE INTO THE EVENING AND GIVEN INFLUX OF RICH TROPICAL AIR MASS...TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY TSTMS THAT FORMS...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE WARM FRONT. OTHERWISE...LARGE COMPLEX OF TSTMS 140 NM WEST OF NAPLES IS MOVING EWD AT 30 KTS AND EXTRAPOLATION HAS THIS MCS TO THE SWRN FL COAST BY 22-23Z. VSBL SATELLITE SHOWS CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS DEVELOPING SWD ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND THESE ARE LIKELY TO MATURE INTO TSTMS BY EVENING. THUS...EXPECT THAT A LINEAR MCS WILL EVOLVE AND MOVE EWD SWRN FL WITH DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL INCREASING AFTER 22-23Z. SUPERCELLS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS LINE AS WELL WITH THREATS FOR ISOLD TORNADOES. ..RACY.. 12/25/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW... 26157994 25818029 25558069 25318136 25588182 26188211 26538207 27128131 27698037 27147990 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sat Dec 25 20:39:31 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 25 Dec 2004 15:39:31 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412252041.iBPKfwYq030041@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 252041 SWOMCD SPC MCD 252041 FLZ000-252145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2578 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0241 PM CST SAT DEC 25 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...S FL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 252041Z - 252145Z RECENT LIGHTNING STRIKE DENSITY AND SATELLITE LOOPS SUGGEST THAT TSTMS HAVE WEAKENED ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/WARM FRONT OFFSHORE SWRN FL. THE WEAKENING TREND IS PROBABLY DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER THE WRN GULF IS BEGINNING TO TURN MORE NELY WITH TIME...LIMITING THE LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS AS FAR S AS SRN FL. TSTMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING SWD ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH AND WILL APPROACH SWRN FL EARLY THIS EVENING. AIR MASS HAS DESTABILIZED AS WARM AND MOIST MARITIME BOUNDARY LAYER HAS SURGED NWD INTO SRN FL THIS AFTERNOON AND THE SEVERE THREATS /DAMAGING WINDS-ISOLD TORNADOES/ WILL REMAIN. GIVEN THE RECENT WEAKENING TREND...WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF ON ORIGINAL THINKING OF A WW ISSUANCE BY 21Z. IF/WHEN CONVECTION BEGINS TO BECOME STRONGER...WW MAY BE REQUIRED THIS EVENING. ..RACY.. 12/25/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW... 26558205 27378029 27027969 25947978 25578051 25258162 25748237 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Dec 26 00:41:24 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 25 Dec 2004 19:41:24 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412260043.iBQ0hpd2004930@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 260043 SWOMCD SPC MCD 260042 FLZ000-260245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2579 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0642 PM CST SAT DEC 25 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH FLORIDA INCLUDING THE KEYS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 260042Z - 260245Z WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IN REMAINING FAVORABLE AIR MASS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS. AT THIS TIME...A WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE TWO COUNTY AREA. RADAR SHOWS SOME SHEAR EXISTING IN A SUPERCELL FORMED BY A RECENT MERGER ABOUT 25 MILES N OF EYW. THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING THROUGH MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR WITH MUCAPE JUST BELOW 1800 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR BETWEEN 45-50 KT. SFC OBS INDICATE SLY FLOW OF 10-15 KT FROM MARATHON UP TOWARDS MIAMI. THUS...POTENTIAL EXISTS NEXT FEW HOURS FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE STORMS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO ACROSS THE PENINSULA COUNTIES OF MONROE AND MIAMI-DADE. ..MCCARTHY.. 12/26/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MFL...EYW... 25148169 25378137 25888068 26068024 25718004 25168012 24878042 24698108 24378183 24378209 24828209 25088187 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Dec 26 06:29:58 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 26 Dec 2004 01:29:58 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412260632.iBQ6WOwW019740@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 260631 SWOMCD SPC MCD 260631 NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-261230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2580 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1231 AM CST SUN DEC 26 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL GA/SC/ERN NC/SRN VA CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION VALID 260631Z - 261230Z ...MAJOR FREEZING RAIN/SLEET EVENT DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MIDLANDS OF SC/PIEDMONT OF NC WITH SLEET/SLOW LIKELY WRN FRINGE OF PRECIP AREA... CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...AT TIMES MIXING WITH SLEET WITH SLEET/SNOW IN AREAS FARTHER ENTRENCHED INTO THE COLD AIR. LATEST SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW WIDESPREAD HEAVIER PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE INTO SERN AL/SRN GA...LIKELY INDICATIVE OF THE STRONGER SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXIT REGION OF AN ADJACENT 120KT UPPER JET. AS THE AREA OF LIFT SPREADS NEWD OVER THE COLD ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE AT THE SFC...WIDESPREAD FZRA WILL DEVELOP FROM GA THROUGH THE MIDLANDS OF SC. LATEST RUC SFC OBSERVATIONAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE WET BULB ZERO LINE FROM NEAR MCN/TBR...WHILE FREEZING TEMPS AT THE SFC ARE GENERALLY NORTH OR WEST OF A GSP/HRJ/FKN LINE. SINCE LITTLE ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...ANY POINTS NORTH OF THE CURRENT POSITION OF THE WET BULB ZERO LINE WILL BE AT RISK FOR FZRA ONCE PRECIPITATION BEGINS. 00Z OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM GSO / GREENSBORO NC / HAS A PROFILE COMPLETELY BELOW FREEZING...WHICH SUGGESTS SNOW IS THE MOST LIKELY PRECIPITATION TYPE ONCE SATURATION OCCURS. ASSUMING GSO IS REPRESENTATIVE OF THE AIRMASS SWWD INTO SC...IT IS LIKELY THAT SLEET AND SNOW WILL BE THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS MOST OF NC...AND WEST OF COLUMBIA SC. FOR EXAMPLE...PFC SOUNDINGS FROM THE ETA INDICATE LOCATIONS SUCH AS RDU/FAY WILL EXPERIENCE ALL SNOW...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES GIVEN BANDED STRUCTURES OBSERVED ON CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY. FZRA IS ALREADY BEING REPORTED AT COLUMBIA SC...AND THIS SEEMS LIKELY SWWD TO MCN. ..TAYLOR.. 12/26/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC... 36937711 36097933 32668469 32058409 33188037 34977772 35977653 36507647 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Dec 26 12:57:14 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 26 Dec 2004 07:57:14 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412261259.iBQCxdqo011426@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 261259 SWOMCD SPC MCD 261258 NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-261900- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2581 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0658 AM CST SUN DEC 26 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SC/CNTRL AND ERN NC/SE VA CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION VALID 261258Z - 261900Z ...SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OF THE CAROLINAS... LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS COOLING CLOUD TOPS ACROSS MUCH OF NC/SE VA...LIKELY MARKING THE REGION OF ENHANCED ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS. HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS OF FZRA WILL OCCUR ALONG A NARROW DEFORMATION BAND WHICH HAS SET UP ROUGHLY ALONG A AGS/FAY/ASJ LINE. 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS FROM MHX/CHS CONFIRM A DEEP WARM LAYER ATOP A SHALLOW SUBFREEZING AIRMASS. WITH SLIGHT WAA EXPECTED TO OCCUR AS 850MB LOW TRACKS NEWD ALONG THE COAST...MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD REMAIN FZRA...AND THERE COULD BE ANOTHER 0.25" OF LIQUID PRECIP ACROSS CNTRL SC WHERE 0.3-0.5" HAS ALREADY FALLEN. HEAVIEST FZRA TOTALS WILL LIKELY EXTEND FROM AUGUSTA TO COLUMBIA OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER 15Z. FARTHER NORTHEAST TOWARD FAY...PRECIPITATION WILL BE SLEET/SNOW ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL WAA MAY CHANGE SOME OF THE FROZEN PRECIPITATION TO FZRA AFTER 14-15Z BEFORE ENDING BY EARLY AFTN. ..TAYLOR.. 12/26/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE... 37167701 35397929 33398239 32658148 33138032 34417805 35707554 36707601 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Sun Dec 26 20:34:18 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 26 Dec 2004 15:34:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412262036.iBQKakZ0030147@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 262036 SWOMCD SPC MCD 262035 MAZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-270230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2582 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0235 PM CST SUN DEC 26 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN LONG ISLAND / SERN CT / RI / SERN MA CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 262035Z - 270230Z SNOW RATES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH EVENING. SNOWFALL RATES AROUND 1 IN/HR WILL BE LIKELY...WITH HIGHER RATES OVER RI AND SERN MA. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS ABRUPT CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE BETWEEN ARCTIC AIR MASS INLAND AND WARM ELY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. DEPTH OF WARM AIR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER SHALLOW AS FORECAST BY LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS...WITH LAPSE RATES COOLING RAPIDLY ABOVE THIS LAYER. FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING BETWEEN 700-600 MB WILL PERSIST AND STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE AREA...WITH RUC MODEL SUGGESTING PRECIPITATION WILL EXPAND NWWD INTO CT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT THIS LIFTING ZONE TO BE COINCIDENT WITH FAVORABLE TEMPERATURE RANGE FOR DENDRITIC GROWTH...THUS MDT TO HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED. THE HEAVIEST RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 22-02Z FOR ERN LONG ISLAND...ERN CT...NEWD TOWARD BOSTON. FARTHER SE...HEAVIER SNOW RATES ARE ALREADY MATERIALIZING OVER RI AND PORTIONS OF SERN MA AROUND TAUNTON. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO SNOW FARTHER E OVER THE CAPE WHERE SURFACE WARM LAYER EXISTS...DUE TO COOLING FROM ABOVE AS FROZEN PRECIPITATION FALLS. ..JEWELL.. 12/26/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX... 40777269 41257267 41517248 41987156 42417101 42287089 42237076 41967058 41837044 42117026 42177017 41766987 41656994 41387047 40987193 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Mon Dec 27 05:56:29 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 27 Dec 2004 00:56:29 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412270558.iBR5wqNv012007@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 270558 SWOMCD SPC MCD 270557 MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-271100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2583 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1157 PM CST SUN DEC 26 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CT/RI/ERN MA/SERN NH/ERN ME CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW AND NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS VALID 270557Z - 271100Z HEAVY SNOW RATES NEAR 1-2"/HR WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF RHODE ISLAND/CAPE COD AND COASTAL ME. IN ADDITION...SUSTAINED SFC WINDS OF 15-25 MPH WITH MUCH HIGHER GUSTS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST WILL CREATE NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. RAPID CYCLOGENESIS IS ONGOING S OF NOVA SCOTIA WITH 3-4 MB/HR PRESSURE FALLS NOTED FROM LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS. WITH A NEARLY 1040 MB ARCTIC HIGH CENTERED JUST EAST OF HUDSON BAY...THIS IS CREATING A VERY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH 50 KT SFC WINDS REPORTED AT SOME BUOY LOCATIONS. LATEST VAD WIND PROFILER DATA FROM BOSTON SHOWS 50 KT AROUND 1 KM...SO MAIN CONCERN FOR OVERNIGHT WILL BE NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ALONG WITH HEAVY SNOW. AT LEAST 6-8" OF SNOW HAS ALREADY FALLEN...WITH SEVERAL MORE INCHES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. LONG RADAR LOOP FROM LAST 8 HOURS OR SO SUGGESTS HEAVIEST SNOW IS ENDING FOR LONG ISLAND...WITH HEAVIEST SNOW BAND NOW EXTENDING FROM CAPE COD TO JUST EAST OF BHB. ALTHOUGH THIS AXIS MAY REMAIN A BIT OFFSHORE...IT CERTAINLY APPEARS THAT HEAVY SNOW RATES OF 1-2"/HR WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF E COASTAL ME. STRONG FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 650-750 MB LAYER SEEMS TO BE WELL CORRELATED TO AXIS OF HEAVY SNOW ON RADAR...AND THIS IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z. LATEST RUC GUIDANCE INDICATES SNOW RATES UP TO 2"/HR POSSIBLE ASSUMING A 10:1 RATIO...AND THE RATIO WILL ACTUALLY BE LARGER THAN THAT GIVEN ARCTIC TEMPERATURES. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL LIKELY BE ENDING BETWEEN 09-12Z...BUT STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE MORNING CREATING DANGEROUS BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW AND/OR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS. ..TAYLOR.. 12/27/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...OKX... 45396755 44177003 42837194 40847292 40777166 41156991 42716885 43396821 44076771 44966669 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Dec 28 12:46:50 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 28 Dec 2004 07:46:50 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412281249.iBSCn7r2018205@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 281248 SWOMCD SPC MCD 281248 CAZ000-281645- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2584 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0648 AM CST TUE DEC 28 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN SIERRA NEVADA OF CA...ABOVE 5500 FT CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 281248Z - 281645Z HEAVY SNOW RATES TO 2"/HR WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SRN SIERRA NEVADA OF CA DURING THE 15-21Z PERIOD. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER SLIGHTLY TO BETWEEN 5500-6000 FT WITH ONSET OF HEAVY SNOW. AT 12Z...WV IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN LARGE...SLOW-MOVING TROUGH OFF THE CA COAST AND 110-120KT 300MB JET EXIT REGION ACROSS NRN BAJA CA AND FAR SRN CA. STRONG CLOUD TOP COOLING IS EVIDENT ACROSS THE SRN SIERRA MTNS. FRONTAL PRECIPITATION BAND EXTENDING FROM THE NRN SACRAMENTO VALLEY SWD ACROSS THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND INTO THE L.A. BASIN WILL TRANSLATE SLOWLY EWD INTO THE SRN SIERRA MTNS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THROUGH 21Z...700MB FLOW OF 30-35KT GRADUALLY VEERS TO SWLY WHICH WILL STRENGTHEN OROGRAPHIC LIFTING ON WRN SLOPES. PRESENCE OF 700-500MB LAPSE RATES AROUND 7 C/KM AND AMPLE MOISTURE SHOULD FAVOR EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE SNOW WITH SNOW RATES UP TO 2"/HR LIKELY WITH CORE OF FRONTAL PRECIPITATION BAND. ETA MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM 28/06Z RUN INDICATE SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL SLOWLY TO BETWEEN 5500-6000 FT THROUGH 21Z...WITH LOWEST SNOW LEVELS LIKELY IN BURSTS OF HEAVY SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION AND STRONGEST OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT. ..BANACOS.. 12/28/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...VEF...REV...HNX...STO... 37811893 37201852 36111813 35801818 35611831 35631864 36501916 37051961 37562011 37932057 38432082 38632063 38772013 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Dec 28 18:34:37 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 28 Dec 2004 13:34:37 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412281836.iBSIasMQ005670@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 281836 SWOMCD SPC MCD 281836 CAZ000-282230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2585 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1236 PM CST TUE DEC 28 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN SIERRA NEVADA OF CA ABOVE 5000 FT CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 281836Z - 282230Z HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES AS HIGH AS 2 IN/HR WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SRN SIERRA NEVADA OF CA...WITH SNOW LEVELS GRADUALLY LOWERING TO 5000 FT BY LATE AFTERNOON. LATEST WV IMAGERY DEPICTS UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OFF THE CA COAST AROUND 35N/130W...WITH LEADING VORT MAXIMA NEARING THE CA COAST INVOF CHANNEL ISLANDS. STRONGLY DIFFLUENT REGIME/EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET OVERSPREADING CA...WITH MOIST PLUME ADVECTING NEWD ACROSS SRN CA. AS PORTRAYED IN RUC SOUNDINGS/REGIONAL VWPS...MID LEVEL SSW WINDS OF 50 KTS OR GREATER ARE CONTRIBUTING TO STRONG UPSLOPE/OROGRAPHIC FORCING FOR HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE SRN SIERRA NEVADA OF CA. IN ADDITION TO OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT...UPSTREAM STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.0 C/KM -- AS EVIDENT IN 12Z VBG RAOB -- AND PROXIMITY OF OBSERVED LIGHTNING SUGGEST CONVECTIVE PRESENCE WILL LIKELY LOCALLY ENHANCE SNOW RATES THIS AFTERNOON. IN ACCORDANCE WITH OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...12Z ETA/15Z RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SNOW LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO NEAR 5000 FT THROUGH 00Z. ..GUYER.. 12/28/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...VEF...REV...HNX...STO... 37801899 37411855 36831815 36131792 35751832 35981869 36581896 37161951 37652009 37982034 38372058 38642056 38782012 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Tue Dec 28 18:46:08 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 28 Dec 2004 13:46:08 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412281848.iBSImQet010943@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 281847 SWOMCD SPC MCD 281847 CAZ000-282015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2586 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1247 PM CST TUE DEC 28 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...COASTAL SRN CA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 281847Z - 282015Z A FEW STRONGER CELLS -- POSSIBLY LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS -- NOW OFFSHORE S OF SBA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL AND AFFECT PARTS OF COASTAL SRN CA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. LIMITED SEVERE THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE. LATEST RADAR SHOWS SEVERAL STRONGER CELLS APPROACHING SRN CA -- ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER VORT MAX CENTER. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD HAS VEERED / SHEAR WEAKENED...AND ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY REMAINS MINIMAL AT BEST...SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS OFFSHORE CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SEMI-ORGANIZED CONVECTION / THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS JUST S OF THE CHANNEL ISLANDS HAVE SHOWN PERSISTENT LIGHTNING AND POSSIBLY SOME WEAK ROTATION PER LATEST VELOCITY DATA FROM AREA RADARS. THOUGH SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN LIMITED...GUSTY WINDS OR A WATERSPOUT / BRIEF TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE CHANNEL ISLANDS -- AND PERHAPS ALONG IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS OF SRN SAN LUIS OBISPO / SANTA BARBARA / VENTURA COUNTIES IN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. ..GOSS.. 12/28/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LOX...MTR... 35622117 35832061 34902016 34271838 34071851 33872011 34082080 34502109 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Wed Dec 29 07:21:27 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 29 Dec 2004 02:21:27 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412290723.iBT7NgBZ001443@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 290723 SWOMCD SPC MCD 290723 CAZ000-290930- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2587 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0123 AM CST WED DEC 29 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN CA COAST CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 290723Z - 290930Z ...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS MAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OFF THE SRN CA COAST... FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LAPSE RATES HAVE STEEPENED CONSIDERABLY BELOW 600MB ALONG THE SRN CA COAST OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. THIS IS SUPPORTED WITH RECENT INCREASE IN CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY OVER MARITIME BOUNDARY LAYER. DESPITE MARGINAL INSTABILITY...IT APPEARS INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT/STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WILL PROVE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR NEAR SFC-BASED CONVECTION AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH. LATEST THINKING IS ISOLATED SUPERCELLS MAY GENERATE LOCALLY STRONG WINDS...OR PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL OR BRIEF TORNADO. OTHERWISE...ADDITIONAL UPSTREAM CONVECTION MAY EVOLVE INTO A LOOSELY ORGANIZED LINE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY SEVERE WINDS AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST. ..DARROW.. 12/29/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...SGX...LOX... 34031850 34271786 33501710 32681688 32371757 32481796 33211821 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Dec 30 00:41:39 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 29 Dec 2004 19:41:39 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412300043.iBU0hpRG024159@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 300043 SWOMCD SPC MCD 300042 CAZ000-300545- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2588 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0642 PM CST WED DEC 29 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN CA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 3500 FT CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 300042Z - 300545Z SNOW EXPECTED TO STEADILY INCREASE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT ABOVE 3500 FT -- NAMELY DURING/AFTER 03Z-06Z TIMEFRAME -- FROM THE KLAMATH MOUNTAINS/CASCADE RANGE INTO THE NRN SIERRAS OF NRN CA. HEAVY SNOWFALL WITH RATES OF 1.5-2.0 IN/HR...ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG GUSTY WINDS...WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. WITHIN ERN PACIFIC UPPER TROUGH...VORTICITY/SPEED MAXIMA AND FRONTAL BAND EVIDENT IN WV/IR IMAGERY OFF THE NRN CA COAST. WITH EWD PROGRESSION OF SYSTEM...DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT COUPLED WITH SWLY MID LEVEL WINDS OF 50-70 KTS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS NRN CA. SUBSEQUENT INCREASE OF HEAVY SNOWFALL EXPECTED THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT ACROSS MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF NRN CA...ESPECIALLY ON SW FACING SLOPES OWING TO STRONG OROGRAPHIC COMPONENT. FURTHERMORE CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO LOCALLY HEAVIER SNOW RATES...PER STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.0 C/KM OR GREATER /E.G. 00Z MFR RAOB/...AND OBSERVED LIGHTNING OFFSHORE/RECENT ISOLD CG STRIKES OVER THE NRN SACRAMENTO VALLEY. 18Z ETA/21Z RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN QUASI-STEADY IN THE 3500-4000 FT RANGE THROUGH 09Z...RELATIVELY HIGHEST OVER THE NRN SIERRAS. ..GUYER.. 12/30/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...REV...MFR...STO...EKA... 41632121 39932044 38551993 38322041 39702154 40252163 40872192 40962226 40822262 40462281 39782256 39682292 39952325 41092368 41452378 41872342 41892236 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Dec 30 06:16:18 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 30 Dec 2004 01:16:18 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412300618.iBU6ITCO008052@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 300617 SWOMCD SPC MCD 300617 CAZ000-301015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2589 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1217 AM CST THU DEC 30 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...MTNS OF NRN CA ABOVE 3000 FT CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 300617Z - 301015Z HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INLAND AFFECTING THE MT SHASTA AREA SEWD ACROSS THE NRN SIERRA NEVADA THROUGH 12Z. HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES OF 2"/HR ARE EXPECTED WITH SNOW LEVELS RANGING FROM NEAR 3000 FT ACROSS FAR NRN CA TO 3500 FT ACROSS THE NRN SIERRA MTNS. AT 06Z...IR IMAGERY REVEALS A POTENT MID-LEVEL VORT CENTER JUST OFF THE SWRN ORE COAST...AND NEGATIVE TILT TROUGH AXIS WITH FRONTAL PRECIPITATION BAND EXTENDING SEWD ACROSS NWRN CA INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEYS. STRONG COLD ADVECTION REGIME IS INFERRED OFF THE CA COAST WITH 500MB TEMPERATURES BETWEEN -28 AND -30C. SCATTERED LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS NWRN CA AND THE OFFSHORE WATERS WHERE ETA MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE 700-500MB LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.5 C/KM. HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASINGLY AFFECT THE COASTAL RANGE AND MT SHASTA AREA ABOVE 3000 FT THROUGH 12Z. PRIMARY FRONTAL PRECIPITATION BAND WILL TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS THE NRN SIERRA MTNS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE 00Z ETA INDICATES INCREASING SWLY 2-3KM FLOW TO 60KT ACROSS THE NRN SIERRAS THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...SUGGESTING STRONG OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT AND POTENTIAL FOR SNOW RATES UP TO 2"/HR...GENERALLY 3500 FT AND ABOVE. ..BANACOS.. 12/30/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...REV...MFR...STO...EKA... 40362277 40042272 39882279 39882304 40152327 40472343 40982351 41332338 41562298 41692255 41752206 41642156 41402139 41102111 40382063 39432015 39092000 38912000 38712014 38752043 39342081 40002119 40322148 40552168 40972183 41132201 41012256 40772277 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Dec 30 06:18:54 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 30 Dec 2004 01:18:54 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412300621.iBU6L53T009249@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 300619 SWOMCD SPC MCD 300618 NDZ000-MTZ000-301015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2590 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1218 AM CST THU DEC 30 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN MT AND WRN ND CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION VALID 300618Z - 301015Z MIXED WINTER PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS N-CENTRAL/ERN MT AND WRN ND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. INITIAL SLEET/FREEZING RAIN SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS MT BETWEEN 06-12Z. POCKETS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND FREEZING DRIZZLE APPEAR LIKELY THROUGH 12Z ACROSS WRN ND. COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE THROUGH 30/12Z ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS REGION. A 994MB SURFACE CYCLONE NEAR SHERIDAN WY WILL DEEPEN NEARLY IN PLACE IN RESPONSE TO STRONG UPPER DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH 300MB JET STREAK EXTENDING FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION NEWD INTO SD BY 12Z. A WARM FRONT WILL STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT ESEWD FROM THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF SD...WITH AN E-W BAND OF 850MB WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPING FROM FAR E-CENTRAL MT ACROSS SRN ND. QUASI-STATIONARY ARCTIC BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACROSS FAR SRN SASKATCHEWAN SEWD INTO NWRN ND AND ARCS NEWD INTO SERN MANITOBA WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THE FAR WRN PORTION OF THE ARCTIC FRONT IS SURGING SWD ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TOWARD GTF AT 0530Z. ALSO...AN INVERTED TROUGH AXIS IS EVIDENT BETWEEN LWT AND GTF. DESPITE RELATIVELY DRY LOW-LEVEL CONDITIONS...INCREASING RADAR TRENDS ARE NOTED ON MOSAIC IMAGERY AT 0530Z FROM NEAR BIL EWD ACROSS SRN ND. INCREASED ISENTROPIC ASCENT WRAPPING WWD JUST NORTH OF THE SURFACE CYCLONE THROUGH ERN MT SHOULD RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET BETWEEN 06-09Z. ADDITIONALLY...INCREASING RADAR TRENDS ARE NOTED IN GTF VICINITY JUST WEST OF INVENTED TROF AXIS AND IN VICINITY OF APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT. SNOW/BLOWING SNOW SHOULD BECOME FOCUSED JUST WEST OF INVERTED TROUGH BY 09Z. ULTIMATELY...AS 700MB LOW DEEPENS ACROSS ERN MT LATE TONIGHT...SUFFICIENT UVV AND DYNAMIC COOLING SHOULD OCCUR TO CHANGE PRECIP TO SNOW BETWEEN 09-12Z ACROSS MUCH OF E-CENTRAL MT. SNOW SHOULD GENERALLY BE OF LIGHT TO MODERATE INTENSITY WITH MAX SNOWFALL RATES IN 0.5-1"/HR RANGE. FURTHER EAST...BAND OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE SHOULD EXIST ALONG I-94 CORRIDOR IN WRN ND. ETA APPEARS TO HAVE INITIALIZED ARCTIC BOUNDARY TOO FAR SOUTH ACROSS ND...AND PREFER 03Z RUC SOLUTION HOLDING SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S IN THIS AREA WITH MARGINAL DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FOR OCCASIONAL FREEZING RAIN THROUGH 12Z. ..BANACOS.. 12/30/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...BIS...BYZ...GGW...TFX... 46260360 46190511 46050738 46070916 46981076 47131172 47431240 48141263 48741194 48971080 48791023 48460992 48060924 48090810 48020619 48100468 48110342 48000198 47690115 47330091 46640087 46370160  From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Dec 30 12:21:17 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 30 Dec 2004 07:21:17 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412301223.iBUCNROJ031410@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 301222 SWOMCD SPC MCD 301222 WIZ000-MIZ000-MNZ000-301615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2591 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0622 AM CST THU DEC 30 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...N-CENTRAL/NRN MN...CENTRAL/NRN WI...AND WRN UPPER MI CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN VALID 301222Z - 301615Z DEVELOPING AXIS OF FREEZING RAIN EXPECTED FROM NEAR MN/ND BORDER ESEWD INTO CENTRAL WI...LIFTING NNEWD AND INTENSIFYING THROUGH 18Z. SIGNIFICANT FREEZING RAIN RATES OF 0.1"/HR POSSIBLE BY LATE MORNING. STRONG 990MB SURFACE CYCLONE CENTERED OVER FAR SERN MT WILL TRACK ENEWD ACROSS THE SRN TIER OF ND THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. SURFACE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER DEFINED FROM NWRN SD ESEWD INTO NWRN IA...WITH 3-4MB/2HR PRESSURE FALL AXIS EVIDENT FROM N-CENTRAL ND SEWD TO WRN WI ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME. FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE DISCUSSION REGION THROUGH 30/18Z AS LEFT EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET MOVES NEWD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY. INCREASING TRENDS ON MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY ARE NOTED WITH INCREASED UVV ACROSS CENTRAL SD TRACKING NEWD. ADDITIONALLY....NEWD MOVING BAND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION EXTENDS ACROSS E-CENTRAL MN TO S-CENTRAL WI ON NRN EDGE OF WARM ADVECTION. THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. INCREASED LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES CONDUCIVE FOR FREEZING RAIN...CONSISTENT WITH RUC AND ETA MODEL SOUNDINGS WARMING 850MB LEVEL TO +4C. SURFACE TEMPERATURES FROM FAR TO BRD TO CWA ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID 20S. THOUGH SOME SLOW WARMING IS LIKELY...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR INCREASING FREEZING RAIN RATES ALONG THIS AXIS LATE THIS MORNING...WITH RATES OF 0.05-0.10"/HR POSSIBLE BY 18Z. THE 09Z RUC INDICATES FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATIONS IN EXCESS OF 0.25" ALONG AN AXIS FROM BRD TO 40 S DLH TO 35 W AUW BETWEEN 15-18Z...WITH FREEZING RAIN AND POSSIBLE SLEET SPREADING NNEWD INTO THE ARROWHEAD AND WRN UPPER MI DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. ..BANACOS.. 12/30/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...MPX...FGF... 45859301 46159407 46389484 46539638 46779667 48329626 47369117 46638936 45918830 44788798 44078845 43618879 43748976 44689132 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Dec 30 13:00:41 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 30 Dec 2004 08:00:41 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412301302.iBUD2pWW012715@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 301301 SWOMCD SPC MCD 301301 CAZ000-301700- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2592 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0701 AM CST THU DEC 30 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/NRN SIERRA MTNS AND FAR NRN MTNS OF CA CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 301301Z - 301700Z VERY HEAVY SNOW...WITH RATES OF 2"/HR...EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL SIERRA MTNS THROUGH 18Z WITH SNOW LEVELS HOLDING AROUND 4000 FT. SNOW WILL BECOME INTERMITTENT AND SHOWERY ACROSS THE MTNS OF FAR NRN CA WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING TO 2500 FT BY 18Z. AT 1230Z...MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE PRIMARY FRONTAL PRECIPITATION BAND EXTENDING FROM SFO NEWD TO BLU AND INTO THE NRN SIERRA MTNS...WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. MODERATE TO HVY SNOW HAS BEEN OBSERVED AT BLUE CANYON SINCE 0530Z. VERY STRONG WLY TO SWLY FLOW IS EVIDENT ON 12Z OAK SOUNDING...WITH 50KTS AT 700MB AND 90KTS AT 500MB. DEEP LAYER SATURATION AND PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 0.75" SUGGEST CONTINUED STRONG AND MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW...PROPAGATING SLOWLY SWD INTO THE CENTRAL SIERRA MTNS THROUGH 18Z. SNOW RATES OF 2"/HR APPEAR LIKELY WITH THIS PRIMARY AXIS OF PRECIPITATION INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH SNOW LEVELS HOLDING AROUND 4000 FT PER RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME LIGHTER AND MORE SHOWERY ACROSS THE MTNS OF FAR NRN CA AS COLD ADVECTION REGIME ADVECTS INLAND BEHIND PRIMARY PRECIPITATION BAND. RUC SOUNDINGS BY 18Z INDICATE SNOW LEVELS AS LOW AS 2500FT IN MT SHASTA VICINITY WITH SOME MINIMAL CAPE AROUND 100 J/KG WHICH WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS AND CONTINUED ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES IN VICINITY OF THE COASTAL RANGES. DESPITE OVERALL DECREASING SNOW RATES...BURSTS OF HEAVY SNOW WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH 18Z ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-TOPPED CONVECTIVE CELLS. ..BANACOS.. 12/30/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...REV...HNX...MFR...STO...EKA... 39212109 38752083 38472067 38122040 37682003 37771917 38751994 39752029 40802077 41382112 41752138 41882200 41842280 41472343 41142356 40522343 40592290 41062255 41172226 41102191 40842167 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Dec 30 18:53:34 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 30 Dec 2004 13:53:34 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412301855.iBUItjBL029685@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 301855 SWOMCD SPC MCD 301854 MNZ000-302130- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2593 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1254 PM CST THU DEC 30 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...NE/NCNTRL MN CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION VALID 301854Z - 302130Z FREEZING RAIN WITH HOURLY ACCUMULATIONS OF 0.10 IN POSSIBLE WILL PERSIST THROUGH APPROX 21Z ACROSS MUCH OF NE/NCNTRL NM. PRECIP TYPE WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN ACROSS NE MN LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WV IMAGERY DEPICTS NEARLY STACKED LOW ADVANCING EWD THROUGH WRN ND...WHILE LATEST MESOANALYSIS FEATURES WARM FRONT GRADUALLY LIFTING NWD ACROSS SRN MN AND ERN IA/SW WI AT 18Z. LOW LEVEL WARM NOSE CENTERED IN 800-850 MB LAYER...AS EVIDENCE IN 12Z MPX RAOB AND UPSTREAM 12Z OAX/TOP RAOBS...CONTINUES TO ADVECT N/NE AHEAD OF THE WRN ND CYCLONE. GIVEN SHALLOW LAYER OF SUB-FREEZING TEMPS REMAINING ACROSS NE/NCNTRL MN AT MIDDAY...ELEVATED WARM LAYER OF 3-4 DEG C WILL SUPPORT COMPLETE MELTING AND RESULTANT FREEZING RAIN PRECIP TYPE THROUGH APPROX 21Z. THEREAFTER...OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND 15Z RUC/09Z SREF CONSENSUS SUGGESTS CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER NE MN AS BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS ABOVE FREEZING. ..GUYER.. 12/30/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF... 48729439 48689328 48279175 48039006 47868994 47009190 47179343 47319435 47519513 47719547 48169527 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Thu Dec 30 19:02:06 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 30 Dec 2004 14:02:06 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412301904.iBUJ4G0F000872@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 301903 SWOMCD SPC MCD 301903 CAZ000-310000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2594 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0103 PM CST THU DEC 30 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SIERRA MTNS OF CA CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 301903Z - 310000Z HEAVY SNOW /WITH LOCALIZED BLIZZARD CONDITIONS/ EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE SIERRA NEVADAS OF CA...WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 2 IN/HR POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL SIERRAS ABOVE 3500-4000 FT. LATEST IR/WV IMAGERY FEATURES UPPER LOW CENTERED OFF THE OR COAST WITH OCCLUDED/COLD FRONT PROGRESSING EWD THROUGH NRN CA. STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL SWLY WINDS -- E.G. 50-70 KTS AT 600 MB PER 12Z RAOBS/RECENT ACARS DATA -- WILL CONTINUE TO INDUCE MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW/STRONG OROGRAPHIC LIFT -- NAMELY INTO SW FACING SLOPES -- AND HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE SIERRAS. HEAVIEST SNOW WILL LIKELY REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL SIERRAS OWING TO PERSISTENT MOISTURE INFLUX AND PROXIMITY TO STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. IN ACCORDANCE WITH 12Z MFR/REV/OAK RAOBS AND OBSERVED MESONET DATA IN HIGHER TERRAIN...15Z RUC SUGGESTS SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN AROUND 3500 FT ACROSS THE NRN SIERRAS THROUGH 03Z. ACROSS THE CNTRL SIERRAS...SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AROUND 4000-4500 FT...WITH 4500-5000 FT IN THE SRN SIERRAS. ..GUYER.. 12/30/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...REV...HNX...STO... 39962116 39632050 38881998 37961943 37341888 36841863 36491852 36371880 37071935 38002017 38662063 39452116 39792144 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 31 00:46:19 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 30 Dec 2004 19:46:19 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412310048.iBV0mTbr002451@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 310047 SWOMCD SPC MCD 310047 CAZ000-NVZ000-310515- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2595 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0647 PM CST THU DEC 30 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SIERRA MTNS OF NRN CA CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 310047Z - 310515Z HEAVY SNOW /INCLUDING LOCALIZED BLIZZARD CONDITIONS/ WITH HOURLY ACCUMULATIONS AS HIGH AS 2 IN/HR WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE SIERRA NEVADAS OF CA. LATEST IR/WV IMAGERY FEATURES UPPER LOW PERSISTING IMMEDIATELY OFF THE ORE COAST. OWING TO QUASI-STATIONARY NATURE OF THIS FEATURE...OBSERVATIONAL EVIDENCE SUGGESTS SWLY MOIST UPSLOPE TRAJECTORIES/OROGRAPHIC LIFT INTO THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN HAVE FLUCTUATED LITTLE THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS IS EXPECTED INTO THE OVERNIGHT PER 21Z RUC GUIDANCE... PERSISTENCE OF 40-70 KT SWLY WINDS IN 2 TO 5 KM LAYER /00Z OAK AND REV RAOBS/ WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HEAVY SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE SIERRAS TONIGHT...NAMELY ON SW/W SLOPES. OWING TO DEGREE OF COLD AIR ALOFT...PROXIMITY OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.0 C/KM OR GREATER WILL CONTINUE TO CONVECTIVELY ENHANCE SNOW RATES TONIGHT...INSTABILITY AS FURTHER EVIDENCE BY ISOLD LIGHTNING STRIKES ALONG THE ORE/NRN CA COAST THIS AFTERNOON. 21Z RUC SUGGESTS THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL LARGELY REMAIN UNCHANGED THROUGH 09Z...WITH SNOW LEVELS PERSISTING AROUND 3500 FT ACROSS THE NRN SIERRAS...4000-4500 FT IN THE CNTRL SIERRAS...TO AROUND 5000 FT IN THE FAR SRN SIERRAS. ..GUYER.. 12/31/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...REV...HNX...STO... 40502150 40322064 38891975 37991927 37321891 36841863 36491852 36371880 37071935 38002017 38712058 39452116 40052162 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 31 06:13:46 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 31 Dec 2004 01:13:46 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412310615.iBV6Frkq014243@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 310615 SWOMCD SPC MCD 310615 CAZ000-NVZ000-311015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2596 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1215 AM CST FRI DEC 31 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SIERRA MTNS OF CA AND ADJACENT AREAS OF FAR WRN NV ABOVE 4000FT CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW AND NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS VALID 310615Z - 311015Z CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR EXTREMELY HEAVY SNOW RATES OF 2-3"/HR ACROSS THE CENTRAL SIERRA MTNS...INCLUDING THE I-80 CORRIDOR AND ADJACENT AREAS OF FAR WRN NV THROUGH 12Z. A SLOW SWD SHIFT OF THE HEAVY SNOW AXIS SHOULD BEGIN BETWEEN 09-12Z. GUSTY WINDS WILL CREATE NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. PERSISTENT LONG WAVE TROUGHING WITH CLOSED 500MB LOW OFF THE ORE COAST REMAINS IN PLACE LATE THIS EVENING...WITH STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR 37N 128W EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE CENTRAL CA COAST AROUND 12Z. THE QUASI-STATIONARY 850MB-700MB BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING FROM ROUGHLY SFO-RNO IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE SLOWLY SWD THROUGH 12Z IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING/DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AXIS OF HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS HAS BEEN COINCIDENT WITH THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE THROUGH THE PAST 12-18HRS...SO A GRADUAL SWD SHIFT OF THE BAND INTO THE CENTRAL/SRN SIERRAS SHOULD OCCUR...PARTICULARLY AS TROUGH APPROACHES THE COAST AFTER 09Z. OTHERWISE...LITTLE SHORT-TERM CHANGE IN FORECAST IN VERY FAVORABLE HEAVY SNOW PATTERN. SWLY 3KM FLOW OF 60KT WITHIN MAIN PRECIPITATION BAND WILL RESULT IN CONTINUATION OF STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT INTO THE CENTRAL SIERRAS. SMALL-SCALE VORTICITY MAX MOVING INLAND ACROSS FAR NWRN CA HAS ENHANCED UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW AND VERTICAL MOTION ALONG AND NORTH OF 140KT 300MB JET AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL CA. DEEP LAYER SATURATION WITH PW VALUES AROUND 0.75" AND EMBEDDED CONVECTION SHOULD SUPPORT 2-3"/HR SNOW RATES...WITH HIGHEST RATES LIKELY ALONG WEST FACING SLOPES. ..BANACOS.. 12/31/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...REV...HNX...STO... 39311957 38231924 37681909 37431933 37662000 38342046 39162073 39792109 40232063 40072006 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 31 12:19:04 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 31 Dec 2004 07:19:04 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412311221.iBVCLBbw025621@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 311220 SWOMCD SPC MCD 311220 CAZ000-NVZ000-311615- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2597 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0620 AM CST FRI DEC 31 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND SRN SIERRA MTNS OF CA ABOVE 4000 FT CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 311220Z - 311615Z AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SWD FROM THE CENTRAL INTO THE SRN SIERRA MTNS THROUGH 31/18Z. EXTREMELY HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES OF 2-3"/HR ARE EXPECTED ALONG WRN SLOPES WITH SNOW LEVELS RANGING FROM 4000-5000 FT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. AT 12Z...IR IMAGERY REVEALS WELL-DEFINED COMMA CLOUD ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG MID-LEVEL VORT MAX CENTERED 100NM SW OF SFO. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SEWD AT 40KTS REACHING THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY BY 18Z. PRE-EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE IN 850-700MB LAYER...WHICH HAS BEEN COINCIDENT WITH LONG-LIVED BAND OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION FROM THE CA COAST INLAND ACROSS THE SIERRA MTNS...HAS BEGUN TO SHIFT SWD IN RESPONSE TO DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. HEAVY SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF NORTH OF I-80 AND BECOME INCREASINGLY FOCUSED ACROSS THE SRN SIERRA MTNS DURING THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO. VAD WIND PROFILE AT HANFORD INDICATES VERY STRONG SWLY FLOW OF 50-70KT BETWEEN 2 AND 6KM...WHICH WILL FAVOR STRONG OROGRAPHIC LIFTING INTO THE SRN SIERRA MTNS DURING THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING. ENHANCED UPPER DIVERGENCE WITH APPROACHING VORT MAX IN ADDITION TO AMPLE DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE AND EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO YIELD 2-3"/HR SNOW RATES. SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AREA WIDE WITH PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH AFTER 18Z. ..BANACOS.. 12/31/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...VEF...REV...HNX...STO... 38772067 38962062 39071996 38891972 38161930 37621902 37001840 36241803 36051838 36061875 36531898 37001926 37371965 37661992 37932014 38412045 WWWW From MCD at goshenarc.org Fri Dec 31 18:56:11 2004 From: MCD at goshenarc.org (MCD at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 31 Dec 2004 13:56:11 -0500 Subject: [MCD] SWOMCD Message-ID: <200412311858.iBVIwJXK010167@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS11 KWNS 311857 SWOMCD SPC MCD 311857 UTZ000-WYZ000-IDZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-312300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2598 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1257 PM CST FRI DEC 31 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SRN SIERRA NV NEWD INTO NRN UT/SERN ID CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 311857Z - 312300Z HVY SNOW WILL COME TO AN END BY 20Z OVER THE CENTRAL/SRN SIERRA NEVADA...WHILE DEVELOPING NEWD INTO CENTRAL/ECENTRAL NV. SNOWFALL RATES FROM 1-2 IN/HR WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A 2-3 HR PERIOD ACROSS CENTRAL/NERN NV THROUGH 00Z. SNOWFALL SHOULD INCREASE IN INTENSITY OVER THE NRN WASATCH UT AND THE CARIBOU HIGHLANDS OF SERN ID BETWEEN 21-00Z WITH HRLY RATES OVER 1 IN/HR BY 01Z. ADDITIONALLY...STRONG WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL PRODUCE CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. UPPER VORT MAX OVER THE CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY OF CA WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL/NERN NV THROUGH 00Z. 2+ IN/HR HVY SNOWFALL WILL COME TO AN END OVER THE CENTRAL/SRN SIERRA WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER VORT CENTER. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM 7-7.5 DEG C/KM EVIDENT ON THE 12Z OAK SOUNDING AND RECENT VIS IMAGERY WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE SNOWFALL RATES FROM 1-2 IN/HR AS THIS VORT CENTER PROGRESSES INTO CENTRAL/NERN NV ALONG PREEXISTING MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE. PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE UPPER FEATURES SUGGEST THAT HEAVIEST SNOW SHOULD ONLY LAST FOR 2-3 HOURS AT ANY LOCATION OVER THIS REGION. PER ELKO VWP DATA UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE MAXIMIZED ON SWLY FACING SLOPES OF RANGES ACROSS NV. FARTHER NE ACROSS NRN UT/SERN ID...LOW LEVEL SWLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH APPROACHING TROUGH. SNOW LEVELS INITIALLY STARTING OUT AROUND 5-5.5 KFT THIS AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD LOWER QUICKLY WHEN STRONGER FRONTAL DYNAMICS MOVE INTO THE REGION AFTER 00Z. IN ADDITION THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL OVER NRN UT/SERN ID WILL LIKELY BE DURING THIS TIME..WHEN MAIN UPPER DEFORMATION ZONE AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IN THE 700-600 MB LAYER COMBINES WITH INCREASING WLY LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW. ..CROSBIE.. 12/31/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ...NOTICE... SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC... 06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD. THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28. ATTN...WFO...RIW...SLC...PIH...VEF...BOI...LKN...REV...HNX... 42991258 40251699 39161816 38251956 37361924 36981825 37551659 38931395 40061167 40681098 43191117 WWWW