[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 211549
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211548 
MAZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-211745-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2068
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1048 AM CDT SAT AUG 21 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SERN PA...NJ...SERN NY AND LONG
ISLAND...CT...RI...SRN MA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 211548Z - 211745Z

BAND OF TSTMS -- EXTENDING AT 1530Z FROM ULSTER COUNTY NY SWWD
ACROSS YORK COUNTY PA -- SHOULD CONTINUE INTENSIFYING AS IT MOVES
ENEWD INTO INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS FROM NJ TO SRN NEW
ENGLAND.  MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND.  1630Z CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK IS BEING UPGRADED TO CATEGORICAL SLGT RISK AND AREA IS BEING
MONITORED FOR PSBL WW.

VIS IMAGERY SHOWS THINNESS AND BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS MUCH OF
DISCUSSION AREA WHICH WILL ALLOW SFC TEMPS TO RISE TO 78-85 DEG F
RANGE THROUGH 18Z.  AIR MASS REMAINS QUITE MOIST IN INFLOW SECTOR
WITH SFC DEW POINTS COMMONLY LOW 70S F...PW AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND
HIGH RH EXTENDING WELL PAST 850 MB.  THIS SUPPORTS MLCAPES ROUGHLY
2000 J/KG BASED ON MODIFIED OKX RAOB AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS. 
LOW-MIDLEVEL FLOW FIELDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FORMATION OF DAMAGING
BOW/LEWP FORMATIONS IN CONVECTIVE LINE.  OBSERVED VWP WINDS AND
SHORT-TERM MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL PROFILES
WITH 30-40 KT FLOW IN 850-700 MB LAYER...STRENGTHENING TO NEAR 50 KT
IN 600-500 MB LAYER.

..EDWARDS.. 08/21/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...

39867687 41037518 41727411 41997325 42237183 42227106
42077083 41547091 41367126 41047190 40597326 40247378
39917408 39847542 

WWWW