[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 210244
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210242 
LAZ000-TXZ000-210345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2066
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0942 PM CDT FRI AUG 20 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL TX EWD INTO NRN LA

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 769...

VALID 210242Z - 210345Z

ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH CONVECTIVE LINE
MOVING EWD THROUGH LAMPASAS AND BURNET COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT HOUR.
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SVR THREAT REMAINS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN ERN
PORTIONS OF WW 769...OVER THE HILL COUNTRY. OVERALL THREAT WILL
REMAIN MARGINAL ENOUGH THAT A NEW WW WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

CONVECTIVE LINE MOVING INTO LAMPASAS COUNTY HAS SHOWN RECENT SIGNS
OF BOWING OUT. GUST FRONT SURGING OUT AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION
INDICATES THAT THE SVR THREAT SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH WITH THIS
LINE SHORTLY. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION OVER THE HILL COUNTRY HAS ALSO
BEGUN TO WEAKEN. CONTINUED DIURNAL COOLING AND DIVERGENT LOW LEVEL
WINDS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUED TO WEAKEN...AND WW
769 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 03Z. FARTHER EAST...FROM ECENTRAL
TX INTO WCENTRAL LA...INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET WILL AID IN SUSTAINED
CONVERGENCE ALONG E-W ORIENTED FRONTAL/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. VERY MOIST
AIR WITH PW/S AROUND 2 INCHES AND STORM MOTIONS THAT WILL REMAIN
PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY SUGGEST THAT HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT IN THIS AREA.

..CROSBIE.. 08/21/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...

29519899 29920059 31650081 31379899 31669773 32169619
32439397 32169275 31129240 30569573 

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