[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 202326
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202325 
TXZ000-210100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2064
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0625 PM CDT FRI AUG 20 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...W-CENTRAL AND SWRN TX

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 769...

VALID 202325Z - 210100Z

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 769 CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF W-CENTRAL
AND SWRN TX. A LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT...WITH RATES 2-3"/HR
...IS EXPECTED THROUGH 01Z ACROSS TOM GREEN...CONCHO...MENARD...AND
NERN SCHLEICHER COUNTIES. 

AT 2315Z...SMALL BUT INTENSE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER REMAINS ANCHORED
ALONG STATIONARY LARGE-SCALE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF
SJT. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE COUPLED WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 3000-3500
J/KG SHOULD MAINTAIN STORMS FOR AT LEAST 1-2 ADDITIONAL HOURS. SJT
VAD INDICATES SFC-6KM SHEAR OF 40 KT JUST NORTH OF THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO FAVOR LONG-LIVED CELLS...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL. ADDITIONALLY...SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND PW
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.5 IN WILL MAINTAIN THREAT OF VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS ABOVE MENTIONED COUNTIES THROUGH 01Z. SATELLITE
TRENDS SUGGEST ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE
BOUNDARY BETWEEN SJT AND MAF DURING NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. INCREASING
CIN AND WEAK UPPER FORCING SHOULD LIMIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
AWAY FROM THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AS NEAR SURFACE AIR MASS BEGINS TO
COOL THIS EVENING.

..BANACOS.. 08/20/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

30070259 32220258 31299891 29129891 

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