[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 201943
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201941 
MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-202145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2058
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0241 PM CDT FRI AUG 20 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/NERN PA...SERN NY...SRN NEW
ENGLAND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 765...766...

VALID 201941Z - 202145Z

SEVERE POTENTIAL CONTINUES ALONG AND S OF QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL
ZONE ANALYZED NEAR A LINE FROM CON...ALB...ELM...FKL.  SUPERCELLS
OVER NRN MA HAVE PRODUCED SEVERE HAIL/WIND OVER PAST HOUR OR TWO.
TRAILING STORM MOVING FROM WORCESTER COUNTY INTO MIDDLESEX COUNTY
MAY INTERACT WITH OUTFLOW FROM ERN STORM NEAR COAST.  MEANWHILE
ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EVIDENT WSWWD ACROSS WRN MA...SERN
NY...NY/PA BORDER REGION AND CENTRAL/NERN PA.

BUOYANCY AND INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONGER WITH EWD
EXTENT ACROSS WW AREAS...BECAUSE OF MORE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER OVER
PORTIONS NRN/WRN PA...STEEPER MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM ERN PORTIONS
WW 766 ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND...AND RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
FROM DE RIVER VALLEY EWD.  RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE MLCAPES BY 21Z
WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 1000 J/KG OVER W-CENTRAL PA TO 2500 J/KG IN
CENTRAL/ERN MA.  VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
WITH 40-50 KT SHEAR IN 0-6 KM LAYER AND 150-200 J/KG SRH.

..EDWARDS.. 08/20/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...PBZ...

43617064 41837058 41167443 42897443 

42227446 40657446 40097875 41667876 

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