[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 200629
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200627 
TXZ000-200800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2055
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0127 AM CDT FRI AUG 20 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...WEST TEXAS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 200627Z - 200800Z

A LINE OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WEST TEXAS OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. THE LINE MAY REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AS IT APPROACHES THE LBB AREA.

SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A COLD FRONT POSITIONED FROM WICHITA
FALLS TX EXTENDING WSWWD TO HOBBS NM. A LINE OF STORMS IS NORTH OF
THE FRONT WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 60S F AND MUCAPE VALUES
RANGE FROM 1000 TO 2000 J/KG. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A CAP IN
PLACE WHICH SUGGESTS THE STORMS ARE ELEVATED IN NATURE. THIS MAY
LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER...AS THE LINE MOVES
QUICKLY ESEWD AT 35 TO 40 MPH...AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL
STILL EXIST WITH BOWING STRUCTURES. ALSO...THE STRONGER CELLS MAY
HAVE A LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR. OVERALL...STORM INTENSITY SHOULD WEAKEN AS THE
CELLS MOVE OFF THE CAPROCK INTO THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS.

..BROYLES.. 08/20/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

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