[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 181728
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181727 
MIZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-181830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2033
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1227 PM CDT WED AUG 18 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MN/MUCH OF WI INTO THE U.P. OF MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 181727Z - 181830Z

WW MAY BE REQUIRED BY 18Z FOR SERN MN...MUCH OF WI INTO THE U.P. OF
MI.

17Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THE FAST MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDED
FROM THE ARROW HEAD REGION OF MN SSWWD TO ALONG THE WRN WI/EAST
CENTRAL MN BORDER TO FAR SERN SD.  LOW-LEVEL MOIST/WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE THE PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS WITH
MLCAPE VALUES BY MID AFTERNOON AROUND 1000 J/KG.  VIS IMAGERY DURING
THE LAST HOUR SHOWED A DEVELOPING BAND OF CONVECTION 40-60 NM AHEAD
OF THE APPARENT SURFACE FRONT...AND LOCATED FROM 30 N IWD TO 20 N
EAU AT 17Z.  HEIGHT FALLS WITH THE STRONG UPPER TROUGH COMBINED WITH
ASCENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THIS BOUNDARY.  DESPITE MARGINAL INSTABILITY...
STRONG KINEMATICS WILL FAVOR A DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH THE
STRONGEST ACTIVITY AS THE FRONT MOVES EWD ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES
THIS AFTERNOON.

..PETERS.. 08/18/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX...

46949045 47328990 47408792 46918564 44788673 43178766
42978942 43129158 43609355 44379273