[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 172258
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172257 
ILZ000-MOZ000-180030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2030
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0557 PM CDT TUE AUG 17 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL MO INTO NRN AND CNTRL IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 756...

VALID 172257Z - 180030Z

CONTINUE REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 756 TIL 18/00Z. TRENDS ARE
BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL WW...WHICH MAY BE
NEEDED A FEW MORE HOURS BEYOND CURRENT WW EXPIRATION.

SCATTERED INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE NEAR/JUST SOUTHEAST OF
SURFACE TROUGH/LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS...WHERE INSTABILITY
BECAME MAXIMIZED IN PEAK HEATING...WITH MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE UP TO
3000 J/KG.  LATEST OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE/SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALREADY
INDICATE THIS HAS BEGUN TO DROP OFF A BIT DURING THE PAST HOUR OR
SO.

CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN AIDED BY WEAK MID-LEVEL
WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW REGIME. THIS
FEATURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS EVENING...WHILE
WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT INTO MISSOURI.  THUS...IT
APPEARS POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY BE SLOWEST TO
DIMINISH ACROSS THE SPRINGFIELD IL AREA OF CENTRAL IL...AND PERHAPS
IN NARROW CONFLUENT BAND DEVELOP WESTWARD INTO AREAS NORTH OF ST.
LOUIS.

..KERR.. 08/17/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...

39689130 39899045 40219029 40458979 40668890 40758813
40318767 40008772 39338854 39038963 39069054 39169106
39299170 39389184 

WWWW