[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 162104
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162103 
IAZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-162200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2020
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0403 PM CDT MON AUG 16 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN SD/NERN NEB/SWRN MN AND NWRN IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 162103Z - 162200Z

AN AREA EXTENDING FROM SERN SD/NERN NEB INTO SWRN MN AND NWRN IA IS
BEING MONITORED FOR A POTENTIAL WW IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT FSD WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS NERN TO CENTRAL NEB...WHILE A
WARM FRONT ENHANCED BY AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTION
EXTENDED EWD ACROSS FAR NRN IA.  VIS IMAGERY SHOWED CU DEVELOPING IN
THE VICINITY OF THE LOW AND SWWD ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH...WHERE
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS BEING MAXIMIZED WITHIN A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE /MLCAPE UP TO 1500 J/KG/ AIR MASS AND WEAKENING CAP. 
ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING WILL FURTHER DESTABILIZE THE AIR MASS
ACROSS THIS REGION...WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF AROUND 35 KT
SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS.  

OBJECTIVE ANALYSES CURRENTLY INDICATE A WEAKLY CAPPED TO UNCAPPED
AIR MASS...WHICH IS SUPPORTING THE CU/TCU PER VIS IMAGERY. 
HOWEVER...THIS AREA IS LOCATED BETWEEN A STRONGER DOWNSTREAM SHORT
WAVE TROUGH AND WEAK UPSTREAM TROUGH...THUS SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS UNCERTAIN.  WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THIS AREA FOR SUSTAINED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.

..PETERS.. 08/16/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...

42759772 44059771 44289579 43549489 42459471 41279582
41079709 41539874 

WWWW