[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 162054
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162052 
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-162315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2018
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0352 PM CDT MON AUG 16 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NERN NM...THE OK PANHANDLE AND NRN TX
PANHANDLE...SWRN AND SCENTRAL KS/ FAR NWRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 162052Z - 162315Z

ISOLATED-SCT THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP ALONG A TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE WRN OK PANHANDLE NEWD INTO SCENTRAL KS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OVERALL MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD KEEP
THE SVR THREAT RELATIVELY MARGINAL.

LATEST VIS SAT IMAGERY SHOWS TOWERING CU OVER FAR SWRN KS AND THE
WRN OK PANHANDLE/NERN NM...WHERE CONVERGENCE WAS MAXIMIZED. FARTHER
EAST...SOMEWHAT WEAKER CONVERGENCE HAS MADE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
SLOWER. HOWEVER...CONTINUED HEATING AND ASCENT ALONG DIFFERENTIAL
THERMAL BOUNDARY SHOULD ALLOW FOR ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT FROM
NEAR DDC TO NEAR GBD/PTT AREAS OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS. REGIONAL
PROFILER DATA SUGGESTS THAT NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW SHOULD GRADUALLY
INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KTS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH SSWLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW AROUND 15 KTS...THIS SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST SUFFICIENT
DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SHORT-LIVED ORGANIZED ROTATION TO THE STRONGEST
STORMS. THE PRIMARY SVR THREAT SHOULD BE LARGE HAIL...WITH DAMAGING
WINDS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE
GRADUALLY INTO THE NRN TX PANHANDLE AND FAR NWRN OK BY EARLY EVENING
BEFORE WEAKENING. SLOW SWD STORM MOTIONS FROM 5-10 KTS COMBINED WITH
MODEST MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES
ABOVE 1 INCH/HR.

..CROSBIE.. 08/16/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

36770393 36740386 36140389 35910292 36220084 36349932
36819721 37959694 38149774 38169951 37000235 

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