[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 110608
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110607 
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-110800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1954
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0107 AM CDT WED AUG 11 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN OK AND NRN/CNTRL AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 110607Z - 110800Z

SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL WAS INCREASING ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN OK AND
NRN/CNTRL AR EARLY TODAY. A SEVERE TSTM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED SHORTLY.

COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SPREAD SWD INTO AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG ASCENT ACROSS THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE
AIDED BY PRONOUNCED MID/UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW WITHIN RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF SPEED MAX MOVING ACROSS THE MO/MID MS RIVER
VALLEYS. IN ADDITION TO MESOSCALE AND SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING
MECHANISMS AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY...STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT...AND INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH
TIME... WILL LEAD TO FURTHER STORM ORGANIZATION WITH A FEW
SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE. LARGE HAIL AND A FEW STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED
AS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

..CARBIN.. 08/11/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...SGF...TSA...

36789583 34959580 34569107 36369088 

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