[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 102341
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102341 
TXZ000-NMZ000-110045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1949
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0641 PM CDT TUE AUG 10 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 102341Z - 110045Z

...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS ERN NM...

THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS OF ERN NM...ALONG SWD-MOVING WIND SHIFT.  THIS ACTIVITY
APPEARS TO BE PARTLY INFLUENCED BY UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS ERN CO. WITH NWLY UPPER FLOW INCREASING ACROSS THIS
REGION...DEEP LAYER SHEAR APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST ORGANIZED
MULTICELL UPDRAFTS...AS CONVECTION PROPAGATES SSEWD.  THERE IS SOME
CONCERN THIS ACTIVITY MAY EVOLVE INTO AN MCS AS IT SPREADS TOWARD
THE TX SOUTH PLAINS.  WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS REGION HOWEVER
AT THIS TIME A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

..DARROW.. 08/10/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

34160490 35810350 35720274 34710285 33430301 33070452 

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