[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 092207
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 092206 
AZZ000-100000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1933
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0506 PM CDT MON AUG 09 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AZ

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 092206Z - 100000Z

ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY EVENING.  

18Z PHOENIX RAOB SHOWS VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PLACE...WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.20 INCH.  MODERATE
INSTABILITY EXISTS ACROSS THE SRN PART OF THE STATE...WITH 100 MB
MLCAPE NEAR 1500 J/KG.

VERY HOT TEMPERATURES IN EXCESS OF 105 HAVE ERODED MOST OF THE
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. THEREFORE...IT SHOULD BE RELATIVELY EASY TO
DEVELOP NEW CONVECTION ON ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.  CONVECTION NOW
OVER ERN RIM IS SENDING OUTFLOW WWD...AND NEW DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON THESE BOUNDARIES.

IN ADDITION...AREA VWPS INDICATE ELY FLOW OF 5-15 KTS SEVERAL KM
DEEP OVER SRN NM AND SERN AZ...WHILE IWA RADAR INDICATES WLY FLOW. 
THUS...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITHIN THIS CONVERGENT
ZONE.  GIVEN LARGE AMOUNTS OF DCAPE AVAILABLE AROUND  1800 J/KG...AT
LEAST A FEW SEVERE AND POSSIBLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS APPEAR LIKELY.

..JEWELL.. 08/09/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

31581180 31851248 34001247 34181206 34161136 33991081
33821040 32371051 31361070 31331105 

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